SB Nation - Jimmy Rollins

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:41:40 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

I wasn't able to find a picture of Gregg Zaun blocking a pitch, but here's one of him blocking the plate from a baserunner. You get the idea.

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Some things to read while coming so close.

Thanks to Rubie for filling in yesterday while I was on my way back from a long travel weekend. I'm home now and will also write Mugs tomorrow and Thursday, health permitting: Somewhere on my travels, I managed to pick up a cold. If today's Mug drifts off into incoherence, now you know why.

The holiday week is usually a quiet one for transactions, but Adam McCalvy said the Brewers likely aren't done adding players in a recent Inbox. He also handled questions on a possible Opening Day lineup, Zach Braddock, and the roof at Miller Park.

Further proof that Gregg Zaun is a better catcher than Jason Kendall, at less than half the price: Beyond the Box Score's Catcher Block Percentage rankings have Zaun listed as the best catcher in baseball at preventing wild pitches and passed balls, adding roughly seven runs per 120 games to his value. Jason Kendall was worth roughly two runs, while Mike Rivera projected out to 5.5 runs per 120 games.

Speaking of Rivera, he's signed a minor league deal with the Yankees, with an invitation to spring training.

Meanwhile, LaTroy Hawkins has probably already finished packing and moving, because he's got plenty of experience in the field. The Northwest Indiana Post-Tribune notes that the Brewers will be Hawkins' eighth team.

Speaking of much traveled pitchers, Adam Foster of Project Prospect had an interesting note on John Halama: He faced 210 batters in winter ball and issued just three walks. Halama's Dominican team has been eliminated from postseason contention, along with Alcides Escobar and Hernan Iribarren's Venezuelan team. For more on that, plus notes on several new Brewers and the winter ball debut of Angel Salome, check out today's oversized Winter League Update.

And, while I'm self promoting, you have until 4 pm today to vote for a fifth outfielder and 4 pm tomorrow to vote for a #2 starter on our BCB All Decade Team. Also, follow us on Twitter.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Have reportedly reached a deal to acquire Brandon Morrow from the Mariners for pitcher Brandon League and a minor leaguer.
Braves: Signed infielder Joe Thurston to a minor league deal.
Indians: Acquired pitcher Mitch Talbot as the PTBNL in the Kelly Shoppach deal, and signed reliever Saul Rivera to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed utilityman Danny Richar to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed Jason Marquis to a two year, $15 million deal.
Padres: Acquired catcher Dusty Ryan from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Phillies: Announced plans to exercise Jimmy Rollins' option for 2011.
Pirates: Signed reliever Javier Lopez to a one year deal.
Rangers: Signed Darren Oliver to a one year deal.
Reds: Re-signed Laynce Nix and restructured and extended Scott Rolen's contract.
Tigers: Signed pitcher Phil Dumatrait and catcher (and former Brewer minor leaguer) Andy Bouchie to minor league deals.
White Sox: Claimed pitcher Freddy Dolsi off waivers from the Tigers.

I've mentioned this topic several times: sorry if you don't think it's interesting, but I find it fascinating. The Blue Jays are apparently bucking the minor league per diem trend and giving their players $25 dollars a day for meal money instead of $20 next season. The change will cost the team less than $50,000, but could go a long way towards helping their prospects get proper nutrition.

With 93 career wins, a Cy Young Award, and six straight seasons with an ERA under 4, Pete Vuckovich has a lot to be proud of from his major league career. Of course, all of that pales in comparison to his induction into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

Happy birthday today to:

2003-2005 Brewer Wes Obermueller, who turns 33.
1992 Brewer Andy Allanson, who turns 48.

And a couple of belated ones I missed over the weekend:

Chris Narveson turned 28 on Sunday.
LaTroy Hawkins turned 36 yesterday.

Drink up.

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies to Allow Jayson Werth to Walk after 2010 Season?

raygu — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

about 1 month ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Jayson Werth watches his solo home run with New York Yankees catcher Jorge Posada and umpire Brian Gorman in the second inning of Game 3 of the Major League Baseball World Series Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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The Toronto Blue Jays wanted a package headlined by Phillies top prospect Domonic Brown when discussing dealing Roy Halladay to the Phillies last July. The Phillies changed course and traded for Cliff Lee. This offseason, Alex Anthopolous asked for a package that included Domonic Brown. This time, the Phillies enticed the Blue Jays with previously untouchable pitching prospect Kyle Drabek instead.

Couple the fact that the Phillies refused the deal Brown with the fact that outfielder Jayson Werth will become a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, and one may conclude that the Phillies may allow Werth to walk after the season. By that time, Brown may be ready to take over in right field, In addition the Phils just signed Halladay to a 3 year extension for $20 million per year and already have the following salary commitments:

Ryan Howard-$20 million
Chase Utley-$15 million
Raul Ibanez-$10 million
Jimmy Rollins-$8 million
Placido Polanco-$6 million
Joe Blanton-a raise from his 2009 salary of $5.75 million
Brad Lidge-$9 million
Roy Halladay-$15.75 million

That's approximately $86 million to 8 players on their 25 man roster. That doesn't include what Shane Victorino will get in salary arbitration. The Phillies are becoming the Yankees of the National League.

That won't be the only reason for letting Werth walk. If Brown continues to hit like he has in High A and AA in 2009, and shows some improved power and defense in right field, he could find himself in the Phillies starting lineup in 2011.

Oh, did I mention that I recently traded for Brown in the UBA league, so I am rooting for him.

Poll

Will the Phillies let Jayson Werth become a free agent after the 2010 season?

Reward Retrospective: The 2007 National League MVP

SFiercex4 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:15:19 -0000

In our previous Reward Retrospective article, Erik Manning discussed the last time the NL Cy Young award was as close as it turned out. Today, I wanted to talk about another race in another year that was fairly close, though perhaps not involving the right players.

But first, I wanted to point out something of interest to me. The Baseball-Reference Play Index may be one of the coolest tools on the net if you're a baseball nerd like me. If you're like me and are too lazy/lack the computing power to tinker around merrily with a Retrosheet database, the Play Index is made just for you. One of the cool functionalities of the PI is the ability to make lists of individual player seasons using various criteria of your choice. This allows you to make up your own "clubs," if you will.

For example, everyone knows about the 40-40 club, consisting of the four players who have hit forty home runs and stolen forty bases in one season. But do you know about the other 40-40 club, consisting of players with over 40 doubles and 40 steals in a season. There are 30 such players in the time between 1901 and 2009. I figured this isn't exclusive enough. How about the 50-50 club, comprising of the two players who had over 50 doubles and 50 steals in a season.

The two player seasons were Tris Speaker's 1912 season and Craig Biggio's 1998 season. According to Rally's Historical WAR database, Speaker was worth 11 WAR that season, an impressive season indeed. Biggio's 1998? Worth 6.6 WAR, according to the database. No small feat, but no 11-win one either.

What's the point? Well, even though these seasons are the only ones in the illustrious 50-50 club, the two are not created equal. Which brings us to another illustrious club that consists of only one member, the 2007 season of Jimmy Rollins.

The 2007 NL MVP

First, here is the award voting for the top ten recipients, as it went down that season.

			Voting Results
Rank		Tm	Vote Pts	1st Place	Share
1	Jimmy Rollins	PHI	353.0	16.0	79%
2	Matt Holliday	COL	336.0	11.0	75%
3	Prince Fielder	MIL	284.0	5.0	63%
4	David Wright	NYM	182.0	0.0	41%
5	Ryan Howard	PHI	112.0	0.0	25%
6	Chipper Jones	ATL	107.0	0.0	24%
7	Jake Peavy	SDP	97.0	0.0	22%
8	Chase Utley	PHI	89.0	0.0	20%
9	Albert Pujols	STL	50.0	0.0	11%
10	Hanley Ramirez	FLA	49.0	0.0	11%

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/14/2009.

The votes were fairly close that year. Rollins snuck past Matt Holliday by less than 20 points in total. As usual, let's take a look using our typical nerdy value measurement, WAR, to see if this order holds any water. First, we'll take a look at values from Rally's Historical WAR database.

Rank	Player	Batting	Bsr	Defense	PosAdj	RepAdj	WAR
1	Jimmy Rollins	16	7	11	8	19	6.1
2	Matt Holliday	45	2	15	-8	18	7.2
3	Prince Fielder	44	-3	-11	-10	18	3.8
4	David Wright	49	5	3	2	18	7.7
5	Ryan Howard	26	-3	-5	-9	17	2.6
6	Chipper Jones	56	0	6	1	15	7.8
7	Jake Peavy	--	--	--	--	--	6.2
8	Chase Utley	37	3	8	3	15	6.6
9	Albert Pujols	51	-2	25	-10	18	8.3
10	Hanley Ramirez	41	4	-14	7	18	5.6

To be fair, I also included FanGraphs WAR data for your perusal. The baserunning column in the following table only includes non-steal baserunning, from Baseball Prospectus' Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR).

Rank	Player	Batting	Bsr	Defense	PosAdj	RepAdj	WAR
1	Jimmy Rollins	28.6	3.4	6.6	7.5	25.9	7.2
2	Matt Holliday	49.9	3.4	14.2	-7.4	23.8	8.4
3	Prince Fielder	49.0	-1.4	-8.8	-12.3	22.7	5.0
4	David Wright	55.5	0.4	4.9	2.5	23.7	8.8
5	Ryan Howard	33.5	-5.0	0.2	-11.1	21.6	3.9
6	Chipper Jones	52.0	0.4	-1.4	1.4	20.0	7.3
7	Jake Peavy	--	--	--	--	--	6.1
8	Chase Utley	44.2	1.8	15.7	1.9	20.4	8.5
9	Albert Pujols	49.3	0.5	18.8	-12.2	22.6	7.9
10	Hanley Ramirez	49.7	0.3	-19.2	7.0	23.5	6.2

Obviously, both these tables contain slight differences between each other, one of which being the difference in replacement adjustment. Each has its own leaders at the top of the list, though the bottom seems to be more or less agreed upon. One thing that we can assuredly tell from both tables is that Rollins made off like a bandit in this MVP race.

In both lists, Rollins ends up 7th in Rally's WAR and 6th in "FanGraphs/EqBRR WAR". ahead of only Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard in Rally's estimates and also ahead of Jake Peavy in FanGraph's work. For the sake of ease of comparison, let's eschew Peavy from the argument and compare only position players, since replacement level for pitchers is more widely in debate. Among the nine position players in the list, Rollins ranks last in offensive runs, more than outstripped by everyone other than Howard, who still held a healthy lead in offensive runs.

Rollins was the best baserunner among these players, not surprisingly, and his total defensive contribution when including position was good to lead or be very close to the lead (depending on defensive system) for all nine position players as well, with only Albert Pujols and Chase Utley close to competing. However, these margins were on the order of a combined ten runs above average at most, not nearly enough to compensate the difference between Rollins' 16-28 runs above average and Holliday's 50 runs.

So why did he win?

Unlike many MVP races, the taint of the "RBI leader" is not affecting this one; Rollins only had 94 RBIs that season, less than every competitor on the list other than Ramirez and Peavy. And sure, while Rollins' reputation with the glove was always good, it's doubtful that it could have been so valuable to BBWAA voters; it's more likely that they pretty much nabbed him as the best or among the best defenders in the game that year.

So what made the difference? It clearly could not be the high quality of his bat. As you saw, Rollins had the lowest offensive runs above average total among all the players, and even using a more traditional batting line would agree with that assessment. That season, Rollins batted .296/.344/.531, good for a .875 OPS that was significantly lower than the OPS of each other position player considered. The next lowest OPS was Ramirez's .943.

Ah, but perhaps rather than a rate, a certain set of counting stats was the reason for Rollins' victory. And that's where the illustrious 30-20-30-30 club comes in. Rollins became the only player in the history of the game to hit at least 30 doubles, 20 triples, 30 home runs, and steal 30 bags. He also became the fourth player in the 20-20-20-20 club of 20 of each of those counting stats. The other four seasons were Willie Mays' 1957, Frank Schulte's 1911, and Curtis Granderson's 2007. Of course, the fact that all of these players made this list says nothing about the individual performance of their seasons. Mays' 1957 was worth 57 runs above average according to Rally's database, far and away blowing out Rollins' 16 runs.

I will not get into who deserved to win the award, though certainly Chase Utley, David Wright, Albert Pujols, and Matt Holliday were in the running. However, I can say that Rollins' 2007 season, while great and certainly one of the best of his career, should not get any more credit than it deserves because it placed him in a certain exclusive "club." Ultimately, the job of position players at the plate is not to hit a certain number of doubles, triples, or home runs, and it is not to steal a certain number of bases, but rather to contribute runs. No matter how pretty a 30-20-30-30 club sounds (and even saying it doesn't sound that good), if it does not contribute more runs than a standard 40 HR, 1.000+ OPS season, then it is not more valuable despite its novelty.

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies Sign Placido Polanco

raygu — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:00:15 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

21 days ago: FILE - In this Aug. 31, 2009, file phot, Detroit Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco throws to first after getting the force out on Tampa Bay Rays' Dioner Navarro (30) in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Detroit. Polanco has returned to the Philadelphia Phillies, agreeing to an $18 million, three-year contract on Thursday, Dec. 3, 2009. The 34-year-old free agent won Gold Gloves at second base for the Detroit Tigers in 2007 and this year but will shift to third base, which hasn't been his primary position since 2002. He replaces Pedro Feliz, who became a free agent. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson, File)

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Thursdays news that the Phillies signed Placido Polanco is a little confusing as most rumors out there were that they were interested in Adrian Beltre or Mark DeRosa. The Polanco signing came out of left field in my opinion.

Polanco is a career .300 hitterm but doesn't walk much or strike out much, and maybe that is why the Phillies signed him. He isn't a power hitter, judging by his career slugging percentage of .414, but he can hit and field very well.

This is what ESPN's Buster Olney had to say about the Polanco signing:

And the Phillies also believe that Polanco will help them do a better job of manufacturing runs at the top of their order. The team has, year after year, consistently ranked near the top of the major leagues in runs scored, but the front office has come to believe that the team is too reliant on home runs -- on big swings -- and has become prone to strikeouts and pop-ups in situations in which they might be well-served by a ground ball to the right side.

Shane Victorino was the primary No. 2 hitter for the Phillies last year and struck out 71 times, not a particularly high number. The Phillies believe that if Polanco bats second, behind Jimmy Rollins, this will give Rollins a better chance to run after reaching base, and that Charlie Manuel will have more options at his disposal, given that Polanco is one of the best hit-and-run men in the sport. Victorino may well drop down in the lineup, to the No. 7 spot.

Quite informative piece there as this tells me that Rollins and Victorino could be running more in 2010...well, definitely Rollins. But with Victorino batting 7th, he could also run more than last year, but he won't be scoring as many runs as he would hitting in front of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth.

Then again, the Phillies could deal Victorino and promote AAA outfielder Michael Taylor to bat 7th, which would be a perfect spot in the lineup for a young power hitter.

Poll

Will Jimmy Rollins steal more bases in 2010?

Yes, as along as he can get on base more.

44 votes

No, his OBP was pitiful in 2009.

20 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies Shopping Shane Victorino??

raygu — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - ASSOCIATED PRESS

about 1 month ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Shane Victorino, right, is congratulated by Jimmy Rollins after scoring on a two run RBI single by Raul Ibanez during the eighth inning of Game 1 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the New York Yankees Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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I was trading emails with my brother and a few friends yesterday, and one of my friends who listens to alot of Philadelphia talk radio said he heard that the Phillies may be quietly shopping Shane Victorino. I was shocked to hear that one, and none of the big rumors guys have yet to throw that one out there. It will be interesting to see if the Phillies would actually mess with a lineup that went to the World Series two years in a row.

So, why would the Phillies want to deal Victorino? I think there are several reasons. One is they have Michael Taylor and Domonic Brown in AAA and AA respectively, who are probably amongst the top 20-25 prospects in the game right now. Secondly, if the Phillies are serious about signing Cliff Lee long-term, then they need to move some salary to afford Lee. Victorino is up for arbitration again this year, after making $3+ million last year. That number could double in 2010 and beyond.

Factor in that the Phillies have two more years of Raul Ibanez and the $20 million left on his contract, and Jayson Werth is a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, and the Phillies have some decisions to make with their outfielders. The contracts that Ryan Howard ($19 million in 2010), Chase Utley ($15 million in 2010), Jimmy Rollins ($7.5 million in 2010) and recently signed Placido Polanco (~$6 million in 2010), the Phillies infield is making almost $48 million in 2010. Add in what Cole Hamel, Brad Lidge, Cliff Lee, Jamey Moyer and others are making, and the Phillies may want to consider dealing some salary where they have depth in the minors.

Who could have interest in Victorino? Well, the Toronto Blue Jays would certainly be interested in him if the Phillies are serious about dealing for ace starter Roy Halladay. Other teams would include the Braves, Marlins and Mets who all need an outfielder, but I am sure the Phillies wouldn't deal Victorino within their own division. The Cardinals would jump at the chance to trade for Victorino and make him their leadoff hitter. He could play right field with Ryan Ludwick moving over to left field. A package of pitching prospects could entice the Phillies. The Cubs are also looking for a centerfielder. Victorino could also lead off for the Cubs.

Poll

Should the Phillies deal Shane Victorino to make room for Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown?

Yes, Brown and Taylor are either ready or very close to being major league ready.

390 votes

No, they should deal Werth, and they could get more in return for him than Victorino.

265 votes

655 votes | Poll has closed

Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:30:11 -0000

I participated in a mock draft over at Mock Draft Central today and here is how the first two rounds went:

Round 1

5. Matt Kemp

6. Ryan Braun

7. Chase Utley

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. Ryan Howard

11. Evan Longoria

12. David Wright

Round 2 after the jump:

Round 2

1. Joe Mauer

5. Ian Kinsler

10, Jason Bay

11. Victor Martinez

12. Zack Greinke

This draft definitely didn't go as I expected, and I don't think there were alot of "autopicks", but I could be wrong.

Poll

Which pick was more surprising?

Teixeira at 4

42 votes

Wright at 12

27 votes

Rollins at 21

22 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

Black Friday Random Astros Discussion Question

davoag — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 13:00:21 -0000

by Ben Margot - AP

Albert Pujols wins another MVP, crushes non-Cardinal fans souls...

View full size photo »

We haven't really discussed it here, but you may have seen a certain slugger from up north won another MVP award. No, not Joe Mauer, it's Albert "Killer of Dreams" Pujols. If you're counting, that's his third MVP trophy and eighth finish in the top five. In fact, the only season Pujols hasn't finished in the top five in his career was a ninth-place finish in 2007. That would be when the Dominican native hit .327/.429/.568 with 103 RBIs and 99 runs scored.

Did you realize that there have only been five MVP winners this decade in the National League? Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent, Pujols, Ryan Howard and JImmy Rollins are the only players to win the award in the 2000s. Obviously, Pujols is the only player from the NL Central to make the list, but what's remarkable is how often other teams in the Central have won the award compared to the Astros.

Take the Cardinals. In the 98 years the MVP award has been given out, 20 Cardinals have won. Cincinnati is next with 11 total MVP while the Cubs have 10. Pittsburgh has seven MVPs while Milwaukee has three MVP wins from its time in the American League. So, the Astros are last in the NL Central with only one MVP win in the franchise's 48 years of existence.

Obviously, if Pujols retired after next season, he'd be a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Since he's going into his Age 30 season, that seems unlikely. If it's not bad enough that The Soulcrusher is staying around for a while, there were nine other NL Central players that got MVP votes this season. Miguel Tejada was the only Astro to get a vote, and he was the lowest finisher of all 10 NL Central vote-getters.

So, the question of the day is this: why don't Houston players fare better in MVP voting and are there any players on the current 40-man roster with a decent chance at winning the award?

Phillies Breakfast Links, November 13, 2009: Bowa Constrictor, Chase Utley is Silver

WholeCamels — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 13:10:40 -0000

Just a few links for you today. Enjoy your weekend.

Phillies’ Utley wins fourth straight Silver Slugger Award
Yay.

Bowa didn't change, so Phillies did
Bowa "shaped" Jimmy Rollins? I only remember that he wanted to turn him into a Junior Juan Pierre.

Phillies apparently looking at 3 for third base
Polanco at third base, about four years too late? And when was the last time he played there regularly?

New York Mets are reportedly 'absolutely in' on adding free agent Chone Figgins
OK...

NL East offseason rumblings
I object to the characterization of Javier Vazquez as "young."

Putting things in perspective: 3B, No. 7 and the GM Meetings
Scoring more runs never hurts.

Was Joe Mauer Streakier than Jimmy Rollins?

Tommy Bennett — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 18:02:07 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

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That some players are streakier than others is, for most baseball observers, nothing short of self-evident. Some guys get hot and stay hot only to descend into the depths of a terrible slump that can last for a month or more. Other guys go to the park, go one-for-three with a walk and a double, go home, eat a steak, and hit the sack, day in and day out. Some guys are up-and-down prima donnas, other guys are paragons of workmanlike consistency. Right?

Who's streaky? Maybe Jimmy Rollins. He started the year off on a terrible note. He hit .207/.241/.293 through the end of April. He eventually heated up and was a fire-starter for Phillies down the stretch. Ergo, streaky.

Who's consistent? Joe Mauer. Immediately upon returning from injury, he hit like his life depended on it. I mean, dude can mash, never takes a day off, professional ballplayer, baseball intelligence, intangibles, and consistency. AM I RIGHT!?

Not so fast. Consider this comparison chart:

Individual charts below.

Using game logs on baseball-reference, I have calculated cumulative wOBA through each game of the season. I have also calculated the wOBA for each 15 game period (note that this is the true 15 game wOBA, not the average of the wOBA's of the 15 games).

It's important to note that the 15 game wOBA doesn't tell you much other than how a guy did. In other words, we can't say that Joe Mauer was actually a better hitter in mid-summer than he was in late May. But it does tell us something about whether a guy was performing well or not. It also remains possible that he really was a better hitter during that time, or that he was doing something different--we just can't be sure.

Look at the chart for Rollins:

Notice that he does in fact start out very poorly. But as you follow the 15 game average, you'll notice that he fluctuates less than Mauer. Compare:

What could account for this? Listening to commentators, it was a foregone conclusion that Rollins was streaky (despite his defense and speed, which as we know are never streaky...) while Mauer was consistently excellent.

I have a theory. Players only count as streaky if they have a slump on an objective scale. If you live in the rarefied air such that your wOBA average is right around .400, no one is going to notice if you put up a .300 for two weeks. But if you normally sit around league average, and put up a month of .200 wOBA, everyone is going to notice.

Of course, I'm putting to one side their defense. Both of these players have strong defensive reputations. Additionally, and unrelated to their defense, they both won Gold Gloves this year. If we did the same for WAR, assuming we could somehow rate defense on a per-game basis, it might be that the graphs would look more stable.

One final thought remains. Look at the cumulative wOBA totals. Notice how they start to level out. On the one hand, it should be a good reminder of the importance of a large sample. The 15 game averages are all over the place, but by the end of the season for each of these guys, the numbers start to level off.

But it's very important to remember that even with these seemingly stable numbers, we can't be certain they represent true talent. As Colin Wyers has pointed out, even when a player has 300 PA, we still need to regress his wOBA almost 50% to the mean. However, that does not mean that, with 600 PA, we do not need to regress at all to the mean.

(Special thanks to Justin Bopp for the nice graphs.)

Gold Glove vs. UZR (NL Edition)

SFiercex4 — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 05:13:54 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Chase Utley (26) is congratulated by bench coach Pete Mackanin after scoring during the first inning of a baseball game against the Washington Nationals, Mackanin later voted for Orlando Hudson (not seen lacking range in this photo) for the Gold Glove at second base. The latter sentence may or may not be true. Thursday, Sept. 10, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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Yesterday, I took a look at the American League Gold Glove recipients vs. the UZR leaders for the AL at each position. This time, I'll take a look at the National League awards. Here was the list:

Player	Team	Position
Adam Wainright	STL	P
Yadier Molina	STL	C
Adrian Gonzalez	STL	1B
Orlando Hudson	LAN	2B
Ryan Zimmerman	WAS	3B
Jimmy Rollins	PHI	SS
Matt Kemp	LAN	OF
Michael Bourn	HOU	OF
Shane Victorino	PHI	OF

The rules are the same as yesterday: I'll take the 2009 bUZR leader and the Gold Glove winner and compare them using a three-year weighted Marcels projection, using 75% UZR and 25% Fans Scouting Report. I regressed 75 defensive games of average for infielders, 100 games for outfielders, and 125 games for catchers. For any players with a lack of playing time the previous year, I passed up on them and moved on to the next player on the UZR leaderboards. No pitchers were measured. Let's dive right on in.

First off, the recipients of the Gold Glove awards.

Player	Position	Defense
Yadier Molina	C	+7
Adrian Gonzalez	1B	+1
Orlando Hudson	2B	-1
Ryan Zimmerman	3B	+12
Jimmy Rollins	SS	+7
Matt Kemp	OF	+2
Michael Bourn	OF	+6
Shane Victorino	OF	+4

Without looking at any other lists or numbers, it would seem to me that the voters nabbed a few pretty good choices. Molina is well renowned among the Fans as the best defensive catcher in the game, and now he has added a reasonable bat to the comparison as well, making him a very good player. The voters nabbed the best third baseman in the National League in Ryan Zimmerman, who had an excellent bounceback season after consecutive injury-plagued campaigns in 2007 and 2008. It is difficult to argue with Rollins at shortstop, as he has consistently been one of the best shortstops in the National League and has posted an above average UZR total over the three year span measured here. The outfield is solid as well, though Victorino is helped by the fact that he primarily played right field in 2007 and posted very good numbers that season; my lack of positional adjustments helped his weighted average.

The only position with a major question mark is second base, where Orlando Hudson won despite a projected defensive contribution of one run below average. UZR has had him at -5 runs per 150 games over the last three seasons, but because of the Fans vote, his tally became a much more bearable -1 run per 150 games. Still, the combined method has him as a below average fielder, and below average fielders definitely should not be winning these awards, especially given the alternatives in the National League.

The Numbers Guys

Here are the guys I selected for comparison from the UZR leaderboards.

Player	Team	Position	Defense
David Ross	ATL	C	+2
Derrek Lee	CHN	1B	+4
Chase Utley	PHI	2B	+13
Casey Blake	LAN	3B	+1
Jack Wilson	PIT	SS	+6
Mike Cameron	MIL	OF	+6
Randy Winn	SFG	OF	+9
Nyjer Morgan	PIT/WAS	OF	+17
Tony Gwynn, Jr.	SDP	OF	+8

As I did yesterday, I presented four outfielders for consideration as well. However, only Cameron played center field exclusively over the three year span, so again, defensive contributions in the corner outfield positions were weighed evenly with those in center.

The one egregious error is the one we all immediately noticed and sort of knew was coming. Chase Utley was shut out of an award again despite being the UZR plus positional adjustment leader over the 2007-2009 time period. Last season, Utley was shut out by Cincinnati's Brandon Phillips, who also rated very well over this three-year span thanks to comparable UZR totals. Nevertheless, neither player took home the award, as Hudson shelves his third Gold Glove in four years.

Another point of contention was perhaps the voting of Adrian Gonzalez over Albert Pujols, not listed above. Among qualifying first basemen, Gonzalez and Derrek Lee were essentially tied at +4 runs in UZR, but Lee rated a bit better than Gonzalez thanks to better three-year UZR totals. It's worth noting of course that Pujols projected at +8 runs at first base, pacing both players.

The final disagreement may lie in the ridiculous season that Nyjer Morgan posted in 2009. Morgan is the only player listed in either this article or the previous one that had no Fans Scouting Report data incorporated; his projection was strictly using UZR. Typically I would have tossed him out of the exercise, but his season was anomalously good that I just had to include him to see how he compared. His +17 projected/regressed runs tops the National League but was very heavily influenced by this year's UZR totals.

The rest of the field is mostly clean. If I had to make replacements to the given list, I would knock Victorino and Kemp out and replace them with Morgan and Mike Cameron. I would also put Pujols and Utley in the place of Gonzalez and Hudson. But getting half of them close to right is not bad given the weak methodology the coaches use to select these players. They can't always be wrong, of course.

Conclusion

The voters this season were not bad, but they did make some large errors in judgment at certain positions in both ballots. But again, the method for choosing these players is so flippant that it is a surprise when the results come out halfway decent. Overall, I would say that the Gold Glove awards this season nailed six out of 16 positions (not including pitchers, which they might have gone 1-for-2 on), with two more positions being "good enough" in that the regressed numbers show two or more players who were very close at the top, one of whom was selected for the Gold Glove. Maybe if they ever updated the process, the voters could get an even better percentage correctly. Until then, however, this award will mostly remain a joke due to the large misses and the weak methodology.