SB Nation - Chase Utley

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies to Allow Jayson Werth to Walk after 2010 Season?

raygu — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:00:19 -0000

about 1 month ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Jayson Werth watches his solo home run with New York Yankees catcher Jorge Posada and umpire Brian Gorman in the second inning of Game 3 of the Major League Baseball World Series Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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The Toronto Blue Jays wanted a package headlined by Phillies top prospect Domonic Brown when discussing dealing Roy Halladay to the Phillies last July. The Phillies changed course and traded for Cliff Lee. This offseason, Alex Anthopolous asked for a package that included Domonic Brown. This time, the Phillies enticed the Blue Jays with previously untouchable pitching prospect Kyle Drabek instead.

Couple the fact that the Phillies refused the deal Brown with the fact that outfielder Jayson Werth will become a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, and one may conclude that the Phillies may allow Werth to walk after the season. By that time, Brown may be ready to take over in right field, In addition the Phils just signed Halladay to a 3 year extension for $20 million per year and already have the following salary commitments:

Ryan Howard-$20 million
Chase Utley-$15 million
Raul Ibanez-$10 million
Jimmy Rollins-$8 million
Placido Polanco-$6 million
Joe Blanton-a raise from his 2009 salary of $5.75 million
Brad Lidge-$9 million
Roy Halladay-$15.75 million

That's approximately $86 million to 8 players on their 25 man roster. That doesn't include what Shane Victorino will get in salary arbitration. The Phillies are becoming the Yankees of the National League.

That won't be the only reason for letting Werth walk. If Brown continues to hit like he has in High A and AA in 2009, and shows some improved power and defense in right field, he could find himself in the Phillies starting lineup in 2011.

Oh, did I mention that I recently traded for Brown in the UBA league, so I am rooting for him.

Poll

Will the Phillies let Jayson Werth become a free agent after the 2010 season?

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

about 1 month ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

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I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies Sign Placido Polanco

raygu — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:00:15 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

21 days ago: FILE - In this Aug. 31, 2009, file phot, Detroit Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco throws to first after getting the force out on Tampa Bay Rays' Dioner Navarro (30) in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Detroit. Polanco has returned to the Philadelphia Phillies, agreeing to an $18 million, three-year contract on Thursday, Dec. 3, 2009. The 34-year-old free agent won Gold Gloves at second base for the Detroit Tigers in 2007 and this year but will shift to third base, which hasn't been his primary position since 2002. He replaces Pedro Feliz, who became a free agent. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson, File)

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Thursdays news that the Phillies signed Placido Polanco is a little confusing as most rumors out there were that they were interested in Adrian Beltre or Mark DeRosa. The Polanco signing came out of left field in my opinion.

Polanco is a career .300 hitterm but doesn't walk much or strike out much, and maybe that is why the Phillies signed him. He isn't a power hitter, judging by his career slugging percentage of .414, but he can hit and field very well.

This is what ESPN's Buster Olney had to say about the Polanco signing:

And the Phillies also believe that Polanco will help them do a better job of manufacturing runs at the top of their order. The team has, year after year, consistently ranked near the top of the major leagues in runs scored, but the front office has come to believe that the team is too reliant on home runs -- on big swings -- and has become prone to strikeouts and pop-ups in situations in which they might be well-served by a ground ball to the right side.

Shane Victorino was the primary No. 2 hitter for the Phillies last year and struck out 71 times, not a particularly high number. The Phillies believe that if Polanco bats second, behind Jimmy Rollins, this will give Rollins a better chance to run after reaching base, and that Charlie Manuel will have more options at his disposal, given that Polanco is one of the best hit-and-run men in the sport. Victorino may well drop down in the lineup, to the No. 7 spot.

Quite informative piece there as this tells me that Rollins and Victorino could be running more in 2010...well, definitely Rollins. But with Victorino batting 7th, he could also run more than last year, but he won't be scoring as many runs as he would hitting in front of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth.

Then again, the Phillies could deal Victorino and promote AAA outfielder Michael Taylor to bat 7th, which would be a perfect spot in the lineup for a young power hitter.

Poll

Will Jimmy Rollins steal more bases in 2010?

Yes, as along as he can get on base more.

44 votes

No, his OBP was pitiful in 2009.

20 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies Shopping Shane Victorino??

raygu — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - ASSOCIATED PRESS

about 1 month ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Shane Victorino, right, is congratulated by Jimmy Rollins after scoring on a two run RBI single by Raul Ibanez during the eighth inning of Game 1 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the New York Yankees Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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I was trading emails with my brother and a few friends yesterday, and one of my friends who listens to alot of Philadelphia talk radio said he heard that the Phillies may be quietly shopping Shane Victorino. I was shocked to hear that one, and none of the big rumors guys have yet to throw that one out there. It will be interesting to see if the Phillies would actually mess with a lineup that went to the World Series two years in a row.

So, why would the Phillies want to deal Victorino? I think there are several reasons. One is they have Michael Taylor and Domonic Brown in AAA and AA respectively, who are probably amongst the top 20-25 prospects in the game right now. Secondly, if the Phillies are serious about signing Cliff Lee long-term, then they need to move some salary to afford Lee. Victorino is up for arbitration again this year, after making $3+ million last year. That number could double in 2010 and beyond.

Factor in that the Phillies have two more years of Raul Ibanez and the $20 million left on his contract, and Jayson Werth is a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, and the Phillies have some decisions to make with their outfielders. The contracts that Ryan Howard ($19 million in 2010), Chase Utley ($15 million in 2010), Jimmy Rollins ($7.5 million in 2010) and recently signed Placido Polanco (~$6 million in 2010), the Phillies infield is making almost $48 million in 2010. Add in what Cole Hamel, Brad Lidge, Cliff Lee, Jamey Moyer and others are making, and the Phillies may want to consider dealing some salary where they have depth in the minors.

Who could have interest in Victorino? Well, the Toronto Blue Jays would certainly be interested in him if the Phillies are serious about dealing for ace starter Roy Halladay. Other teams would include the Braves, Marlins and Mets who all need an outfielder, but I am sure the Phillies wouldn't deal Victorino within their own division. The Cardinals would jump at the chance to trade for Victorino and make him their leadoff hitter. He could play right field with Ryan Ludwick moving over to left field. A package of pitching prospects could entice the Phillies. The Cubs are also looking for a centerfielder. Victorino could also lead off for the Cubs.

Poll

Should the Phillies deal Shane Victorino to make room for Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown?

Yes, Brown and Taylor are either ready or very close to being major league ready.

390 votes

No, they should deal Werth, and they could get more in return for him than Victorino.

265 votes

655 votes | Poll has closed

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 4

raygu — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Here is the last part of the 4 part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times. Derek provides some insight into his top 5 rankings and some early sleepers for 2010:

Fake Teams: Are there any statistics that you use to evaluate hitters or pitchers that aren't mainstream yet?

Derek Carty: Absolutely. As I've talked about a little bit already, there are some that aren't even super well-known in the sabermetric community because, well, I invented them myself and they aren't really readily available yet. I absolutely love CAPS, David Gassko's LIPS ERA is great, and True Home Runs for hitters is a favorite of mine as well. Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix's xBABIP is great too. And of course, things like BABIP and HR/FB and LOB% aren't really mainstream, but they are pretty well-known in the sabermetric community and are certainly important to look at.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: Do you prefer auction leagues or straight draft leagues? Mixed or NL/AL-only leagues?

Derek Carty: Auction, without a doubt. It gives everyone a chance at every player and, I feel, allows you to be more creative with how you construct your team and with how you plan your strategy. I used to be a 100% in favor of mixed leagues over AL/NL-only (in theory), although LABR has swayed my opinion a bit (it was the first AL/NL-only league I ever played in). Still, I would have to lean towards something like a 14 or 15-team mixed league, given my druthers. I just feel that one or two big injuries to an AL or NL-only team can derail any hope of a championship, in some instances, and we really are in the infantile stages of trying to predict injuries, so it's not as if some of us can even gain much of a competitive advantage in the area. I was actually quite lucky in LABR this year when it came to the health of my players, which has surely colored my opinion of this league setup a bit. Aside from losing Ramon Hernandez for most of the year and Raul Ibanez, Rich Harden, and Carlos Ruiz for a few weeks, my team stayed pretty healthy. In other leagues, I wasn't as lucky. In the FSIC, for instance, Jose Reyes killed us (although we did manage to finish in second despite a Reyes/Garrett Atkins combo for our first two picks). I think a 15-team mixed league is a pretty good depth and minimizes the amount of luck involved.

Fake Teams: An early look at 2010-who is your top 5 players in NL-only leagues? AL-only leagues? Mixed?

Derek Carty: This'll have to be very early since I haven't completed my projections yet or really tried to make any 2010 predictions, but here's how I'm currently feeling (completely subjectively and without seeing some of the more in-depth numbers I like to look at).
NL: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) Ryan Braun, 5) Matt Kemp
AL: 1) A-Rod, 2) Mark Teixeira, 3) Miguel Cabrera, 4)Evan Longoria, 5) Joe Mauer
Mixed: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) A-Rod, 5) Ryan Braun

Fake Teams: If you have done this analysis, who are a few sleepers for 2010?

Derek Carty: I haven't really done this analysis yet, so I'll probably have some very different names when asked in a month or two. For now, let's go with Ian Stewart, Julio Borbon, Eric Young Jr., Dallas McPherson (consider him the next Russell Branyan if he finds playing time), Koji Uehara (potential Baltimore closer, though he could succeed as a SP as well), Brett Andersen, and Jorge de la Rosa. And, of course, whether someone is truly a sleeper or a value pick is entirely dependent on context. He'll only derive value if you take him in a round later than where you believe he truly belongs.

Fake Teams thanks Derek for taking the time to answer these questions for our readers.

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 3

raygu — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 14:00:20 -0000

Here is part 3 of the 4-part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times:

Fake Teams: When evaluating hitters before a draft, I like to look at their previous year's stats and decide if the hitter can improve upon those stats or not. How do you evaluate hitters when preparing for a draft?

Derek Carty: My approach is a bit different and comprehensive, but here's the general gist of it. I look at a lot of different things for hitters. For power, I've created a statistic using HitTracker data which I call True Home Runs (or tHR). What this aims to do is take some of the luck out of home runs. You'll often hear people say something like "a home run is a home run", but that couldn't be further from the truth. A guy who pounds a 500-foot home run is much more likely to hit more home runs than a guy who squeaks one over a 320 foot fence, ceteris paribas. He's stronger, and if he can hit the long ones, he's only guaranteed to hit some short ones. tHR first neutralizes park and weather (obvious influencers ) and also accounts for the distance of home runs (not so obvious but very important influencer). The logic behind doing this might not be readily apparent, so you can read more in-depth explanations here and here (the articles are older and from the preliminary stages of development, but the logic is still relevant).

For batting average, I'll focus on the three things that it is comprised of: how often the batter puts the ball in play (strikeout rate), how often those balls clear the fence (home run rate), and how often the remaining balls in play fall for hits (BABIP). Strikeout rate is a very stable stat, so not much needs to be altered with it. For the HR component I'll use tHR and for BABIP I'll use xBABIP. This is not the xBABIP that some refer to, calculated as LD%+.120. I've found this to be worse than actual BABIP in predictive ability and should always be ignored for these purposes. Instead, I like using the xBABIP created by Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix, which I've found to be very predictive (relatively speaking). In fact, I'm actually working with Dutton now on further improving the formula. That work should be published later in the off-season.

As I mentioned earlier, I'm also currently working on a form of CAPS for hitters, which I suppose will be called CABS (Context Adjusted Batting Statistics), so that'll be thrown into my evaluations. Eventually, it'll all boil down to my projection system spitting out a projection for every hitter, which will encompass all of the concepts I've described above and a few more. For some hitters, I'll probably supplement these projections with my scouting perspective as with the pitchers.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: I have won a few NL-only 5x5 leagues by drafting just middle relievers and closers and focusing on drafting hitters early. Other than your LABR draft strategy, what other draft strategies have you used, and how successful were they?

Derek Carty: I believe it's crucial to create your strategies based on the specifics of the league: the settings, the opponents, and what you know about your own tendencies within the context of these things. In some leagues, I'll refuse to draft closers until the end. In others, I'll take a pair of them early. In some, I'll embrace risky players. In others, I'll play it safe for the first half of the draft or longer. There are some general rules for these things (i.e. the shallower the league, the easier it is to take risks) but every league truly is different and must be evaluated individually.

As one example from this season, I played in an expert league run by KFFL with some heavy competition (partnered up with fellow-THT writer Eriq Gardner, though he replaced Victor Wang after the draft, who left THTF to do some work for MLB clubs). It was a 12-team mixed Yahoo! League. We focused on hitters early, taking mostly guys with good health records and stable skill sets with just one pitcher in the single-digit rounds, then grabbed several SPs in the early teens (including Javy Vazquez - in 12-team mixed leagues, I've found that there's a treasure trove of good pitchers to be had in this area). After that we went for some high-upside guys (like Matt Wieters and Nyjer Morgan) or undervalued guys (like Cody Ross and J.D. Drew), and eventually took a couple of closer candidates towards the end.

One smaller strategy we really looked to employ focused on deliberately getting a few injury risk players. I feel that the market does not value these players properly, leaving excess value ripe for the picking. I explained last year that if you combine the stats of a high-skill, injury-prone player with those of a replacement level player (when he's injured), you end up with a stat line well-worth the reduced cost of the so-called "injury risk" player. This is a strategy that will only work in shallower leagues like this one, though, because the static production of the replacement level players is much higher than it will be in deep leagues. In an AL/NL-only league, this would fail miserably because replacement level is someone like Juan Castro. In KFFL, we looked to use it with Chase Utley (whose status was unknown at draft time), Chipper Jones, Rich Harden, Matt Wieters, J.D. Drew, and a couple others. We were also very active on the waiver wire (over 200 transactions), keeping several rotating bench spots and streaming extra hitters on Mondays and Thursdays and elite relievers on the other days. We didn't start this until June, though, which likely cost us the league. We ultimately finished 3^rd, though it was very close and we were in 1^st just a few days before the end of the season.

Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:30:11 -0000

I participated in a mock draft over at Mock Draft Central today and here is how the first two rounds went:

Round 1

5. Matt Kemp

6. Ryan Braun

7. Chase Utley

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. Ryan Howard

11. Evan Longoria

12. David Wright

Round 2 after the jump:

Round 2

1. Joe Mauer

5. Ian Kinsler

10, Jason Bay

11. Victor Martinez

12. Zack Greinke

This draft definitely didn't go as I expected, and I don't think there were alot of "autopicks", but I could be wrong.

Poll

Which pick was more surprising?

Teixeira at 4

42 votes

Wright at 12

27 votes

Rollins at 21

22 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

Phillies Top 10 Stories of 2009: No. 9 -- Chase Utley is Boring

WholeCamels — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:58:59 -0000

The 2009 Phillies got some marvelous production out of their lineup once again -- Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez come to mind. But once again, the best of the bunch was second baseman Chase Utley. For the fourth season in a row, Utley finished second in the National League in WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

Utley quietly posted yet another ho-hum "Holy crap that guy is incredible!" season in 2009, hitting 31 homers and posting a career-high 88 walks, with a .905 OPS. Really great numbers, particularly for a second baseman, but not necessarily "second best player in the league" totals. So where does it come from?

After the jump...

1. Defense: Once again, Chase Utley posted a league-leading UZR of 10.8, which is actually down appreciably from his ungodly 20.2 UZR in 2008. Defensive metrics aren't perfect, of course, but if one system keeps showing that Utley is the best in the league, well, there's probably something there.

2. Baserunning: Utley was a perfect 23-for-23 in basestealing opportunities. John Dewan's Stat of the Week last week showed Chase Utley as the best "baserunning gainer" in the National League over the past five seasons, with a +96 total, and a +27 in 2009 alone. That's 96 bases better than the average baserunner. That's lots of bases.

3. Plunked: Hit by a pitch 24 times this season, third year in a row he lead the league in that category.

So, there you have it. Chase Utley, the best Phillies player since Mike Schmidt, and a player who literally does everything well. He hasn't been a press favorite because of his dry personality; guys like Jimmy Rollins have been and always will be more quotable. But when it comes to playing the game and winning, Chase Utley is the heart and soul of this Phillies team. We're lucky to have him. Now, about that 8th place MVP finish...

Fantasy Baseball: BP's Eric Seidman's Top 10 Fantasy Players

raygu — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 20:00:13 -0000

by Nick Wass - AP

3 months ago: Washington Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman, right, rounds the bases as he is greeted by third base coach Pat Listach (4) after Zimmerman hit a three-run home run during the sixth inning of a baseball game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Wednesday, Sept. 23, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals won 5-4. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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In his chat yesterday over at Baseball Prospectus, Eric Seidman was asked the following:

Tex Premium Lager (Jersey): Even More Blatant Fantasy Keeper Question (tm): In no order, who are the 10 most valuable position players for the next few years? Most seem obvious (Pujols, Hanley, Utley, etc.) but I'd like your take on the matter. Maybe someone (you?) can take over Nate Silver's top 50 list, which was one of my favorite articles each year.
Eric Seidman: I'll list the guys that instantly came to mind as that likely says a lot about their attributes: Pujols, Mauer, Hanley, Utley, Tulowitzki, J Upton, Longoria, Zimmerman, Wright, Braun. Those aren't in order and there are definitely others to think about.

So, he answered this question off the top of his head, but he included David Wright in his top 10 fantasy players for "the next few years". Am I the only one who thinks Wright shouldn't be in the top 10? He leaves himself an out with the last sentence in his response, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt.

What surprised me was including Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman in his top 10. Granted both players are very good all around players-offensively and defensively-but are they top 10? I like Zimmerman alot as well, and could consider him should he duplicate his 2009 season in 2010. As for Tulo, I don't see him going 30-20 again in 2010.

Which player would you take out of his top 10?

Poll

Which player should NOT be in the top 10 fantasy player list for the next few years?

Ryan Zimmerman

33 votes

David Wright

29 votes

Troy Tulowitzki

40 votes

102 votes | Poll has closed

NL MVP Retrospective, or Why Chase Utley Will Never Win Anything in His Lifetime

SFiercex4 — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:00:02 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Chase Utley shields himself from Ryan Howard's monstrous right palm after Utley hit a three-run home run during the first inning of Game 5 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the New York Yankees Monday, Nov. 2, 2009, in Philadelphia. Howard raised his hand in a slapping motion, quietly warning Utley that those were HIS runs to be driven in! (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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Yesterday, the final end-of-season award of 2009 was announced, and it comes as no surprise that Albert Pujols was not only the winner, but a unanimous first-place winner, with all 32 first-place votes going to him.

Now, I have no issues with Mr. Pujols (though I will say that, if you went by WAR, it wasn't as much of a blowout as it is shown by the voting). He is likely the best player in baseball right now and far and away the best hitter in the game. No reasonable person would have an issue with this call. All congratulations go to him. But I thought it would appropriate to mention one quibble I had with the voting on which most readers here at Beyond the Box Score would share my distaste. Let me share the top 10 list with you, with the offending line in bold.

			Voting Results			Batting Stats
Rank		Tm	Vote Pts	1st Place	Share	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Albert Pujols	STL	448.0	32.0	100%	160	568	124	186	47	135	16	115	.327	.443	.658	1.101
2	Hanley Ramirez	FLA	233.0	0.0	52%	151	576	101	197	24	106	27	61	.342	.410	.543	.954
3	Ryan Howard	PHI	217.0	0.0	48%	160	616	105	172	45	141	8	75	.279	.360	.571	.931
4	Prince Fielder	MIL	203.0	0.0	45%	162	591	103	177	46	141	2	110	.299	.412	.602	1.014
5	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	172.0	0.0	38%	151	543	101	161	32	92	20	73	.297	.377	.552	.930
6	Andre Ethier	LAD	113.0	0.0	25%	160	596	92	162	31	106	6	72	.272	.361	.508	.869
7	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	89.0	0.0	20%	153	572	79	189	25	90	5	52	.330	.387	.556	.943
8	Chase Utley	PHI	84.0	0.0	19%	156	571	112	161	31	93	23	88	.282	.397	.508	.905
9	Derrek Lee	CHC	66.0	0.0	15%	141	532	91	163	35	111	1	76	.306	.393	.579	.972
10	Matt Kemp	LAD	49.0	0.0	11%	159	606	97	180	26	101	34	52	.297	.352	.490	.842

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2009.

As many of the astute readers would have already figured out, I'm going to join in on the parade of whining about Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley. There are more funny things to mention, such as the 10th place votes for Jeremy Affeldt and Brad Hawpe, but those silly votes are a novelty if anything. Chase Utley not receiving MVP recognition for his elite play is not a novel concept.

First, the Numbers

Of course, I don't think any award comparison article could honestly be attempted without a good old fashioned table of WAR values! All data taken from FanGraphs, so as not to step on anyone's toes using my own calculations of wOBA weights for the season (I keep getting average wOBA of .333, but FanGraphs has it as .329, which worries me). SB/CS baserunning is already included in FanGraphs wOBA, so I only added non-basestealing runs from Baseball Prospectus' EqBRR.

Rank	Player	Batting	Baserunning	Defense	PosAdj	RepAdj	WAR
1	Albert Pujols	72.1	-0.6	1.3	-12.4	23.3	8.4
2	Hanley Ramirez	44.2	1.7	-0.3	7.0	21.7	7.4
3	Ryan Howard	35.6	-2.8	1.3	-12.4	23.4	4.5
4	Prince Fielder	55.4	-3.1	0.6	-12.5	24.0	6.4
5	Troy Tulowitzki	27.4	3.9	-1.2	7.0	20.9	5.8
6	Andre Ethier	25.3	0.9	-16.2	-7.4	22.8	2.5
7	Pablo Sandoval	34.9	1.1	-4.2	-0.1	21.1	5.3
8	Chase Utley	39.4	5.4	10.8	2.4	22.9	8.1
9	Derrek Lee	39.8	0.7	3.7	-10.9	20.5	5.4
10	Matt Kemp	23.2	1.5	2.6	2.0	22.2	5.2

I'll first mention that the overall list is not all that bad. If you went by FanGraphs' WAR totals, you would only be missing Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Gonzalez from the top 10. Gonzalez finished 12th in the balloting despite playing for the San Diego Padres, but Ryan Zimmerman was snubbed of an excellent season, finishing 25th. Such is the perils of depending on defense for your value (and for playing for the Washington Nationals).

But back to the man of the hour, so to speak. How does Chase Utley rank among the top 10 MVP candidates in each (non-playing time) category? As you can see, Utley was the best defender using single-season UZR. We shouldn't consider that "the truth," but if we look at regressed projections such as the ones I made for the Gold Glove vs. UZR series, you'll see that Utley comes out even better after considering the past few seasons in UZR and Fans Scouting Report data (Pujols would also look very well, while a few others remain around where they are). Utley was also the best baserunner by a good margin, and that should not surprise anyone. He stole 23 bags out of 23 attempts this year, which is incorporated in to his batting totals, and in addition gathered up five more runs taking extra bases on hits, grounders, and fly balls according to EqBRR.

Who did not look so good? Well, if you trust the data listed here, Andre Ethier should not even have sniffed this ballot. Not a lot of consideration was given to his defense, which did not appear very good. Using just a weighted UZR projection, I had him at -7 runs, which is a good win or so better than what he supposedly showed as listed here, but would still put him well behind the other candidates in terms of production. Ethier was also the second worst hitter in terms of wRAA and baserunning, ahead of only Los Angeles Dodgers teammate Matt Kemp. Much was made of Ethier's "clutch" performance this year (he won the award for ESPN!), and his 1.01 wins in the clutch according to FanGraphs generally supports that. So he's got that going for him, I suppose.

The Ryan Howard-RBI Conspiracy

Of course, I didn't mention the giant elephant in the room, in the form of Phillies slugger Ryan Howard. We know that Utley has been a better hitter compared to Howard the past three seasons, based on wOBA/linear weights. What Howard brings in home run power, Utley more than makes up for in doubles and not making outs.

However, Utley bats third in the Phillies lineup behind Jimmy Rollins (career OBP .329) and Shane Victorino (career OBP .347, though it's been higher in recent seasons). Meanwhile, Howard bats fourth in the Phillies order and regularly has, well, Chase Utley (career OBP .379) on base. And people wonder why Utley gets RBI totals in the 90-100 range regularly, while Howard has those "marvelous" 140-RBI seasons.

While it is true that Howard has done a better job of bringing runners home when he has been at the plate the last two seasons (20.5% of baserunners have come home to score during Howard's appearances the last two seasons) than Utley has (15.9% over the same time span), I think it's pertinent to note that Howard has had over 14% more runners on base the last two seasons. Keep the two-year "run-driving" rates the same and give Howard the number of baserunners Utley had, and Howard would have been expected to drive in 176 baserunners compared to Utley's 137, a difference of only 39 runners over two years. Is 20 RBI's a season really that much of a difference between an MVP competitor (Howard placed 3rd this season, 2nd last season) and an MVP also-ran (Utley placed 8th this season and a staggering 14th last year)?

And of course, this doesn't even consider their differences in position, defense, baserunning, and all those other things regularly glossed over during MVP voting season.

Will he ever win?

I can't tell you that, my friend. It seems like the lure of the RBI still looms large over Chase Utley's head. After all, how can you be the most important player on your team when you don't drive in the most runs? I mean, coincidentally, the highest ranking player from each team represented on the ballot led their team in RBI's this season. Without having looked at the award ballots from previous years, I'd hazard a guess that that is more the rule than an exception. Unless Utley magically starts hitting 40 home runs a season, I don't know if he can avoid being on base for Howard not to drive him in. And if he stops getting on base in general, well, we can't have that type of player win awards?

Well, I guess we could, since Jimmy Rollins won the MVP in 2007 with a .344 OBP (more on that season a little later). But for that to happen, I think Utley would have to be the only player to hit 50 doubles, 30 home runs, 20 triples, 30 steals, and 15 sacrifice flies, or some other "prestigious" club that he'd have created himself that year. And clearly he's just not good enough to have that kind of MVP-caliber season.