SB Nation - Ryan Howard

Fantasy Baseball: UBA Keeper League Trades

raygu — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 14:00:22 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

3 months ago: Cincinnati Reds shortstop Paul Janish, front, fields the throw as Colorado Rockies' Eric Young, Jr., steals second base in the third inning of the Rockies' 5-1 victory in a baseball game in Denver on Thursday, Sept. 10, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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I have mentioned in several of my posts recently that I have traded for some minor league prospects in my "Big" NL-only keeper league called the UBA league. I joined this league 3 years ago taking over a team that had finished in 11th place the previous year. I immediately started trading my best keepers in several 2-1 deals to improve my roster.

My first year in the UBA league was strange because, I decided in mid-late May to bail on the season and started trading my most productive players for cheap keepers and minor league prospects. But, as the season went along, I slowly crept up in the league standings to the point that I decided to change course and go for it. As it turned out, I finished 3rd that year and in the money.

In fact, I have finished in 3rd place in each of my 3 years in the UBA league, but last year's finish hurt the most. I traded some of my better minor league prospects (Andrew McCutchen and Jason Heyward to name a few) and Matt Kemp during the season to only finish in 3rd. Not what I expected when I made the deals obviously.

So this offseason, I have again decided to gut my team of my best keepers to rebuild, as I did in my first year in the league. Here is a summary of the deals I have made this offseason:

more after the jump:

Traded $10 S1 Casey McGehee for $5 S2 Yonder Alonso

Traded $1 S1 Wandy Rodriguez for $10 S1 Brandon Allen, $5 S2 Domonic Brown and the #7 pick in the minor league draft

Traded $23 S1 Andre Ethier for $5 S2 Michael Stanton, $5 S2 Jose Tabata and $5 S2 Andrew Lambo

Traded $22 S1 Huston Street for $10 S1 Eric Young and the #13 pick in the minor league draft

Brandon Allen and Young have a shot at making a fantasy impact in 2010. Allen, as it stands right now, should be the starting first baseman for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2010, but he didn't help himself in the Arizona Fall League where he hit .177 and struck out 33 times. He also struck out alot in his cup of coffee with the DBacks in August and September. Young, on the other hand, could end up in AAA to start the 2010 season as Rockies manager Jim Tracey loves him some Clint Barmes. Not sure why. Maybe it's the .220 batting average, but he is a good fielding second baseman. I think Young could play enough in 2010 to steal 20+ bases. Hopefully they aren't in AAA. Should he land a starting job out of spring training, he could steal 35+ bases.

I also targeted prospects who I think should make a fantasy impact in 2011, with a couple who could make their big-league debut in 2010. There is a good possibility that Jose Tabata will be given a chance to play everyday come June 2010. The Marlins Michael Stanton could also see some time in Florida this season, especially if he can improve upon his AA performance in 2009. In 299 ABs at AA Jacksonville, Stanton went 16-53-.231-.311-.455-.766.

In Domonic Brown and Andrew Lambo, I received two outfielders who could be starting in 2011. Brown could be ready to take over for free agent outfielder Jayson Werth, should the Phillies let Werth leave via free agency. Lambo had a disappointing season in AA Chattanooga as his power numbers dropped. But Dodgers director of scouting Logan White and director of player development DeJon Watson both feel Lambo can ave a break out power season in 2010. Time will tell.

As a result of these moves, I am left with alot of question marks in my keeper list, but I will have about $185 to spend at the draft, so the draft will be real interesting since it is full of power hitters like Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, and Mark Reynolds (my worst non-raise decision ever) among others.

Poll

How did I do in my offseason deals?

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies to Allow Jayson Werth to Walk after 2010 Season?

raygu — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

about 1 month ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Jayson Werth watches his solo home run with New York Yankees catcher Jorge Posada and umpire Brian Gorman in the second inning of Game 3 of the Major League Baseball World Series Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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The Toronto Blue Jays wanted a package headlined by Phillies top prospect Domonic Brown when discussing dealing Roy Halladay to the Phillies last July. The Phillies changed course and traded for Cliff Lee. This offseason, Alex Anthopolous asked for a package that included Domonic Brown. This time, the Phillies enticed the Blue Jays with previously untouchable pitching prospect Kyle Drabek instead.

Couple the fact that the Phillies refused the deal Brown with the fact that outfielder Jayson Werth will become a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, and one may conclude that the Phillies may allow Werth to walk after the season. By that time, Brown may be ready to take over in right field, In addition the Phils just signed Halladay to a 3 year extension for $20 million per year and already have the following salary commitments:

Ryan Howard-$20 million
Chase Utley-$15 million
Raul Ibanez-$10 million
Jimmy Rollins-$8 million
Placido Polanco-$6 million
Joe Blanton-a raise from his 2009 salary of $5.75 million
Brad Lidge-$9 million
Roy Halladay-$15.75 million

That's approximately $86 million to 8 players on their 25 man roster. That doesn't include what Shane Victorino will get in salary arbitration. The Phillies are becoming the Yankees of the National League.

That won't be the only reason for letting Werth walk. If Brown continues to hit like he has in High A and AA in 2009, and shows some improved power and defense in right field, he could find himself in the Phillies starting lineup in 2011.

Oh, did I mention that I recently traded for Brown in the UBA league, so I am rooting for him.

Poll

Will the Phillies let Jayson Werth become a free agent after the 2010 season?

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

28 days ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

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I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

OTM's Top 10 Red Sox Moments of 2009: Honorable Mentions

Randy Booth — Mon, 14 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

by Winslow Townson - AP

Nomar Garciaparra's return to Fenway Park is one of OTM's honorable mentions in its list of top Red Sox moments of 2009.

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Although the Red Sox's 2009 season didn't quite end like we had all wanted, there were some good moments last season. Nothing that ends with a playoff win, of course, but good moments nonetheless.

Today we start our top 10 list for top Red Sox moments of the season. Today is the honorable mentions; moments that received votes that could not crack our top 10 list. Our No. 10 moment will be posted tomorrow.

After the jump, find all six honorable mentions.

April 30 & Aug. 27: Jonathan Van Every and Nick Green aren't just position players

Check this off in the "you don't see this every day" column. You might not remember Jonathan Van Every 10 years from now, but if you do, you'll probably remember this game. In a blowout game, Van Every -- an outfielder -- came in and pitched for the Sox. He recorded two outs, allowed a hit and a walk but damn! If he didn't stop the bleeding! You'll have a better chance of remember Nick Green in 10 years. If you do, I hope you remember the shortstop's two inning of scoreless relief on Aug. 27. He faced nine batters and walked three of them, but I'll take two scoreless innings and no hits from a shortstop on the mound. Green's post-game money quote? "My fingers were as slick as crap."

May 20: David Ortiz hits his first home run of the season

One day after I posted an article about the Red Sox perhaps looking for a new designated hitter, David Ortiz did something he hadn't done since September of 2008. Hit a home run. And it was beautiful. It was 163 at-bats into the 2009 season for Ortiz before he hit that home run to left-center field. He would go on to hit 28 more home runs in the season and proved to be one of the best hitters in baseball from June 1 on. OTM user pedrewkilis may have said it the best: "It was like lemon lime Gatorade after 3 days in the Sahara."

June 12: Daniel Bard's first save is impressive

Daniel Bard's first career save wasn't just your normal save. He didn't just come into the ninth inning and work three outs. Nah, not like that. Instead, he came into the 13th inning against the defending World Series champions Philadelphia Phillies with a three-run lead and faced the heart of their order. This is how it went down:

After a leadoff walk, he struck out Jayson Werth, struck out Ryan Howard, hit Raul Ibanez (99MPH in the arm. That is a dent in the morning), and capped his first career save by striking out Shane Victorino. All three batters looked ugly in their Ks.

I'm not a man with an amazing memory for specifics. But I still remember how ugly the at-bats were by Werth, Howard and Victorino. Howard especially. That was just sweet.

July 6: Nomar Garciaparra returns home

If you shed a tear when Nomar Garciaparra came home in July, no one is going to blame you. Nomar received an amazing standing ovation when he was announced. It was just one of those moments where you're happy to be a Red Sox fan. Not every team does this for their former stars; Red Sox fans, well, we do that for guys that weren't even stars (see: Roberts, Dave). After the game, Nomar was appreciative: "You don’t know how things are going to play out," Garciaparra said. "There’s no script for that one. I think what you saw out there was just pure emotion, from the fans, from myself."

July 17: Julio Lugo is designated for assignment

If Ortiz's first home run was a sigh of relief, Julio Lugo's designation for assignment was a sigh of "finally!" Lugo's tenure as a Red Sox was officially over on July 17. The signing went down as a bust, but at least the Sox got rid of him. Lugo brought his crappy defense (-53 UZR/150 in 32 games with the Sox) to the Cardinals, while still getting paid from the Red Sox. But hey, at least he was gone, right?

Aug. 7: Red Sox, Yankees battle to 15 innings before A-Rod walk-off home run

A "top moment" doesn't necessarily have to be a good moment. The Red Sox and Yankees battled in a scoreless game for 14.5 innings before Alex Rodriguez hit a walk-off home run against Junichi Tazawa. It was Tazawa's professional debut. Heck of a way to start, huh? Despite the loss, it was an amazing game to watch. It was another Josh Beckett v. A.J. Burnett pitcher's duel, where either could have earned the win.

Over The Monster's No. 10 moment of the Red Sox's 2009 season will be posted tomorrow morning.

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies Sign Placido Polanco

raygu — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:00:15 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

19 days ago: FILE - In this Aug. 31, 2009, file phot, Detroit Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco throws to first after getting the force out on Tampa Bay Rays' Dioner Navarro (30) in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Detroit. Polanco has returned to the Philadelphia Phillies, agreeing to an $18 million, three-year contract on Thursday, Dec. 3, 2009. The 34-year-old free agent won Gold Gloves at second base for the Detroit Tigers in 2007 and this year but will shift to third base, which hasn't been his primary position since 2002. He replaces Pedro Feliz, who became a free agent. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson, File)

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Thursdays news that the Phillies signed Placido Polanco is a little confusing as most rumors out there were that they were interested in Adrian Beltre or Mark DeRosa. The Polanco signing came out of left field in my opinion.

Polanco is a career .300 hitterm but doesn't walk much or strike out much, and maybe that is why the Phillies signed him. He isn't a power hitter, judging by his career slugging percentage of .414, but he can hit and field very well.

This is what ESPN's Buster Olney had to say about the Polanco signing:

And the Phillies also believe that Polanco will help them do a better job of manufacturing runs at the top of their order. The team has, year after year, consistently ranked near the top of the major leagues in runs scored, but the front office has come to believe that the team is too reliant on home runs -- on big swings -- and has become prone to strikeouts and pop-ups in situations in which they might be well-served by a ground ball to the right side.

Shane Victorino was the primary No. 2 hitter for the Phillies last year and struck out 71 times, not a particularly high number. The Phillies believe that if Polanco bats second, behind Jimmy Rollins, this will give Rollins a better chance to run after reaching base, and that Charlie Manuel will have more options at his disposal, given that Polanco is one of the best hit-and-run men in the sport. Victorino may well drop down in the lineup, to the No. 7 spot.

Quite informative piece there as this tells me that Rollins and Victorino could be running more in 2010...well, definitely Rollins. But with Victorino batting 7th, he could also run more than last year, but he won't be scoring as many runs as he would hitting in front of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth.

Then again, the Phillies could deal Victorino and promote AAA outfielder Michael Taylor to bat 7th, which would be a perfect spot in the lineup for a young power hitter.

Poll

Will Jimmy Rollins steal more bases in 2010?

Yes, as along as he can get on base more.

44 votes

No, his OBP was pitiful in 2009.

20 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies Shopping Shane Victorino??

raygu — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - ASSOCIATED PRESS

about 1 month ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Shane Victorino, right, is congratulated by Jimmy Rollins after scoring on a two run RBI single by Raul Ibanez during the eighth inning of Game 1 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the New York Yankees Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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I was trading emails with my brother and a few friends yesterday, and one of my friends who listens to alot of Philadelphia talk radio said he heard that the Phillies may be quietly shopping Shane Victorino. I was shocked to hear that one, and none of the big rumors guys have yet to throw that one out there. It will be interesting to see if the Phillies would actually mess with a lineup that went to the World Series two years in a row.

So, why would the Phillies want to deal Victorino? I think there are several reasons. One is they have Michael Taylor and Domonic Brown in AAA and AA respectively, who are probably amongst the top 20-25 prospects in the game right now. Secondly, if the Phillies are serious about signing Cliff Lee long-term, then they need to move some salary to afford Lee. Victorino is up for arbitration again this year, after making $3+ million last year. That number could double in 2010 and beyond.

Factor in that the Phillies have two more years of Raul Ibanez and the $20 million left on his contract, and Jayson Werth is a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, and the Phillies have some decisions to make with their outfielders. The contracts that Ryan Howard ($19 million in 2010), Chase Utley ($15 million in 2010), Jimmy Rollins ($7.5 million in 2010) and recently signed Placido Polanco (~$6 million in 2010), the Phillies infield is making almost $48 million in 2010. Add in what Cole Hamel, Brad Lidge, Cliff Lee, Jamey Moyer and others are making, and the Phillies may want to consider dealing some salary where they have depth in the minors.

Who could have interest in Victorino? Well, the Toronto Blue Jays would certainly be interested in him if the Phillies are serious about dealing for ace starter Roy Halladay. Other teams would include the Braves, Marlins and Mets who all need an outfielder, but I am sure the Phillies wouldn't deal Victorino within their own division. The Cardinals would jump at the chance to trade for Victorino and make him their leadoff hitter. He could play right field with Ryan Ludwick moving over to left field. A package of pitching prospects could entice the Phillies. The Cubs are also looking for a centerfielder. Victorino could also lead off for the Cubs.

Poll

Should the Phillies deal Shane Victorino to make room for Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown?

Yes, Brown and Taylor are either ready or very close to being major league ready.

390 votes

No, they should deal Werth, and they could get more in return for him than Victorino.

265 votes

655 votes | Poll has closed

Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 20:30:11 -0000

I participated in a mock draft over at Mock Draft Central today and here is how the first two rounds went:

Round 1

5. Matt Kemp

6. Ryan Braun

7. Chase Utley

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. Ryan Howard

11. Evan Longoria

12. David Wright

Round 2 after the jump:

Round 2

1. Joe Mauer

5. Ian Kinsler

10, Jason Bay

11. Victor Martinez

12. Zack Greinke

This draft definitely didn't go as I expected, and I don't think there were alot of "autopicks", but I could be wrong.

Poll

Which pick was more surprising?

Teixeira at 4

42 votes

Wright at 12

27 votes

Rollins at 21

22 votes

91 votes | Poll has closed

Phillies Top 10 Stories of 2009: No. 9 -- Chase Utley is Boring

WholeCamels — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:58:59 -0000

The 2009 Phillies got some marvelous production out of their lineup once again -- Ryan Howard, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez come to mind. But once again, the best of the bunch was second baseman Chase Utley. For the fourth season in a row, Utley finished second in the National League in WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

Utley quietly posted yet another ho-hum "Holy crap that guy is incredible!" season in 2009, hitting 31 homers and posting a career-high 88 walks, with a .905 OPS. Really great numbers, particularly for a second baseman, but not necessarily "second best player in the league" totals. So where does it come from?

After the jump...

1. Defense: Once again, Chase Utley posted a league-leading UZR of 10.8, which is actually down appreciably from his ungodly 20.2 UZR in 2008. Defensive metrics aren't perfect, of course, but if one system keeps showing that Utley is the best in the league, well, there's probably something there.

2. Baserunning: Utley was a perfect 23-for-23 in basestealing opportunities. John Dewan's Stat of the Week last week showed Chase Utley as the best "baserunning gainer" in the National League over the past five seasons, with a +96 total, and a +27 in 2009 alone. That's 96 bases better than the average baserunner. That's lots of bases.

3. Plunked: Hit by a pitch 24 times this season, third year in a row he lead the league in that category.

So, there you have it. Chase Utley, the best Phillies player since Mike Schmidt, and a player who literally does everything well. He hasn't been a press favorite because of his dry personality; guys like Jimmy Rollins have been and always will be more quotable. But when it comes to playing the game and winning, Chase Utley is the heart and soul of this Phillies team. We're lucky to have him. Now, about that 8th place MVP finish...

Black Friday Random Astros Discussion Question

davoag — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 13:00:21 -0000

by Ben Margot - AP

Albert Pujols wins another MVP, crushes non-Cardinal fans souls...

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We haven't really discussed it here, but you may have seen a certain slugger from up north won another MVP award. No, not Joe Mauer, it's Albert "Killer of Dreams" Pujols. If you're counting, that's his third MVP trophy and eighth finish in the top five. In fact, the only season Pujols hasn't finished in the top five in his career was a ninth-place finish in 2007. That would be when the Dominican native hit .327/.429/.568 with 103 RBIs and 99 runs scored.

Did you realize that there have only been five MVP winners this decade in the National League? Barry Bonds, Jeff Kent, Pujols, Ryan Howard and JImmy Rollins are the only players to win the award in the 2000s. Obviously, Pujols is the only player from the NL Central to make the list, but what's remarkable is how often other teams in the Central have won the award compared to the Astros.

Take the Cardinals. In the 98 years the MVP award has been given out, 20 Cardinals have won. Cincinnati is next with 11 total MVP while the Cubs have 10. Pittsburgh has seven MVPs while Milwaukee has three MVP wins from its time in the American League. So, the Astros are last in the NL Central with only one MVP win in the franchise's 48 years of existence.

Obviously, if Pujols retired after next season, he'd be a sure-fire Hall of Famer. Since he's going into his Age 30 season, that seems unlikely. If it's not bad enough that The Soulcrusher is staying around for a while, there were nine other NL Central players that got MVP votes this season. Miguel Tejada was the only Astro to get a vote, and he was the lowest finisher of all 10 NL Central vote-getters.

So, the question of the day is this: why don't Houston players fare better in MVP voting and are there any players on the current 40-man roster with a decent chance at winning the award?

NL MVP Retrospective, or Why Chase Utley Will Never Win Anything in His Lifetime

SFiercex4 — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 21:00:02 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Chase Utley shields himself from Ryan Howard's monstrous right palm after Utley hit a three-run home run during the first inning of Game 5 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the New York Yankees Monday, Nov. 2, 2009, in Philadelphia. Howard raised his hand in a slapping motion, quietly warning Utley that those were HIS runs to be driven in! (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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Yesterday, the final end-of-season award of 2009 was announced, and it comes as no surprise that Albert Pujols was not only the winner, but a unanimous first-place winner, with all 32 first-place votes going to him.

Now, I have no issues with Mr. Pujols (though I will say that, if you went by WAR, it wasn't as much of a blowout as it is shown by the voting). He is likely the best player in baseball right now and far and away the best hitter in the game. No reasonable person would have an issue with this call. All congratulations go to him. But I thought it would appropriate to mention one quibble I had with the voting on which most readers here at Beyond the Box Score would share my distaste. Let me share the top 10 list with you, with the offending line in bold.

			Voting Results			Batting Stats
Rank		Tm	Vote Pts	1st Place	Share	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1	Albert Pujols	STL	448.0	32.0	100%	160	568	124	186	47	135	16	115	.327	.443	.658	1.101
2	Hanley Ramirez	FLA	233.0	0.0	52%	151	576	101	197	24	106	27	61	.342	.410	.543	.954
3	Ryan Howard	PHI	217.0	0.0	48%	160	616	105	172	45	141	8	75	.279	.360	.571	.931
4	Prince Fielder	MIL	203.0	0.0	45%	162	591	103	177	46	141	2	110	.299	.412	.602	1.014
5	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	172.0	0.0	38%	151	543	101	161	32	92	20	73	.297	.377	.552	.930
6	Andre Ethier	LAD	113.0	0.0	25%	160	596	92	162	31	106	6	72	.272	.361	.508	.869
7	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	89.0	0.0	20%	153	572	79	189	25	90	5	52	.330	.387	.556	.943
8	Chase Utley	PHI	84.0	0.0	19%	156	571	112	161	31	93	23	88	.282	.397	.508	.905
9	Derrek Lee	CHC	66.0	0.0	15%	141	532	91	163	35	111	1	76	.306	.393	.579	.972
10	Matt Kemp	LAD	49.0	0.0	11%	159	606	97	180	26	101	34	52	.297	.352	.490	.842

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/25/2009.

As many of the astute readers would have already figured out, I'm going to join in on the parade of whining about Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley. There are more funny things to mention, such as the 10th place votes for Jeremy Affeldt and Brad Hawpe, but those silly votes are a novelty if anything. Chase Utley not receiving MVP recognition for his elite play is not a novel concept.

First, the Numbers

Of course, I don't think any award comparison article could honestly be attempted without a good old fashioned table of WAR values! All data taken from FanGraphs, so as not to step on anyone's toes using my own calculations of wOBA weights for the season (I keep getting average wOBA of .333, but FanGraphs has it as .329, which worries me). SB/CS baserunning is already included in FanGraphs wOBA, so I only added non-basestealing runs from Baseball Prospectus' EqBRR.

Rank	Player	Batting	Baserunning	Defense	PosAdj	RepAdj	WAR
1	Albert Pujols	72.1	-0.6	1.3	-12.4	23.3	8.4
2	Hanley Ramirez	44.2	1.7	-0.3	7.0	21.7	7.4
3	Ryan Howard	35.6	-2.8	1.3	-12.4	23.4	4.5
4	Prince Fielder	55.4	-3.1	0.6	-12.5	24.0	6.4
5	Troy Tulowitzki	27.4	3.9	-1.2	7.0	20.9	5.8
6	Andre Ethier	25.3	0.9	-16.2	-7.4	22.8	2.5
7	Pablo Sandoval	34.9	1.1	-4.2	-0.1	21.1	5.3
8	Chase Utley	39.4	5.4	10.8	2.4	22.9	8.1
9	Derrek Lee	39.8	0.7	3.7	-10.9	20.5	5.4
10	Matt Kemp	23.2	1.5	2.6	2.0	22.2	5.2

I'll first mention that the overall list is not all that bad. If you went by FanGraphs' WAR totals, you would only be missing Ryan Zimmerman and Adrian Gonzalez from the top 10. Gonzalez finished 12th in the balloting despite playing for the San Diego Padres, but Ryan Zimmerman was snubbed of an excellent season, finishing 25th. Such is the perils of depending on defense for your value (and for playing for the Washington Nationals).

But back to the man of the hour, so to speak. How does Chase Utley rank among the top 10 MVP candidates in each (non-playing time) category? As you can see, Utley was the best defender using single-season UZR. We shouldn't consider that "the truth," but if we look at regressed projections such as the ones I made for the Gold Glove vs. UZR series, you'll see that Utley comes out even better after considering the past few seasons in UZR and Fans Scouting Report data (Pujols would also look very well, while a few others remain around where they are). Utley was also the best baserunner by a good margin, and that should not surprise anyone. He stole 23 bags out of 23 attempts this year, which is incorporated in to his batting totals, and in addition gathered up five more runs taking extra bases on hits, grounders, and fly balls according to EqBRR.

Who did not look so good? Well, if you trust the data listed here, Andre Ethier should not even have sniffed this ballot. Not a lot of consideration was given to his defense, which did not appear very good. Using just a weighted UZR projection, I had him at -7 runs, which is a good win or so better than what he supposedly showed as listed here, but would still put him well behind the other candidates in terms of production. Ethier was also the second worst hitter in terms of wRAA and baserunning, ahead of only Los Angeles Dodgers teammate Matt Kemp. Much was made of Ethier's "clutch" performance this year (he won the award for ESPN!), and his 1.01 wins in the clutch according to FanGraphs generally supports that. So he's got that going for him, I suppose.

The Ryan Howard-RBI Conspiracy

Of course, I didn't mention the giant elephant in the room, in the form of Phillies slugger Ryan Howard. We know that Utley has been a better hitter compared to Howard the past three seasons, based on wOBA/linear weights. What Howard brings in home run power, Utley more than makes up for in doubles and not making outs.

However, Utley bats third in the Phillies lineup behind Jimmy Rollins (career OBP .329) and Shane Victorino (career OBP .347, though it's been higher in recent seasons). Meanwhile, Howard bats fourth in the Phillies order and regularly has, well, Chase Utley (career OBP .379) on base. And people wonder why Utley gets RBI totals in the 90-100 range regularly, while Howard has those "marvelous" 140-RBI seasons.

While it is true that Howard has done a better job of bringing runners home when he has been at the plate the last two seasons (20.5% of baserunners have come home to score during Howard's appearances the last two seasons) than Utley has (15.9% over the same time span), I think it's pertinent to note that Howard has had over 14% more runners on base the last two seasons. Keep the two-year "run-driving" rates the same and give Howard the number of baserunners Utley had, and Howard would have been expected to drive in 176 baserunners compared to Utley's 137, a difference of only 39 runners over two years. Is 20 RBI's a season really that much of a difference between an MVP competitor (Howard placed 3rd this season, 2nd last season) and an MVP also-ran (Utley placed 8th this season and a staggering 14th last year)?

And of course, this doesn't even consider their differences in position, defense, baserunning, and all those other things regularly glossed over during MVP voting season.

Will he ever win?

I can't tell you that, my friend. It seems like the lure of the RBI still looms large over Chase Utley's head. After all, how can you be the most important player on your team when you don't drive in the most runs? I mean, coincidentally, the highest ranking player from each team represented on the ballot led their team in RBI's this season. Without having looked at the award ballots from previous years, I'd hazard a guess that that is more the rule than an exception. Unless Utley magically starts hitting 40 home runs a season, I don't know if he can avoid being on base for Howard not to drive him in. And if he stops getting on base in general, well, we can't have that type of player win awards?

Well, I guess we could, since Jimmy Rollins won the MVP in 2007 with a .344 OBP (more on that season a little later). But for that to happen, I think Utley would have to be the only player to hit 50 doubles, 30 home runs, 20 triples, 30 steals, and 15 sacrifice flies, or some other "prestigious" club that he'd have created himself that year. And clearly he's just not good enough to have that kind of MVP-caliber season.