SB Nation - Emilio Bonifacio

Baseball Musings covers Emilio Bonifacio

craig — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 19:57:48 -0000

Baseball Musings continues on with the very ambitious goal of covering all players A to Z. Emilio Bonifacio takes his turn at the plate.

Emilio Bonifacio plays third base for the Florida Marlins. He can’t hit, he doesn’t walk much, and he lacks power. He doesn’t even defend well.

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My guess is no team will give a starting job of Bonifacio again.

It was I all could do not to email David Pinto and make a bet. For some reason, unknown to anyone, the Marlins front office sees Bonifacio as viable everyday player at second base. And should they complete a trade for Danny, Bonifacio will probably be the front runner to take over at second. Yes, I'm like everyone else who thinks the best option would be for Coghlan to leave the outfield and be stationed in his natural position, if Danny is traded. But the feeling the Marlins front office is projecting, they would rather go a different direction, meaning Emilio at second. If all of this should happen, it either proves the front office is delusional or they are taking trade justification to an extreme.

Washington Nationals Non-Tender Scott Olsen.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 19:52:34 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

The Washington Nationals have decided to part ways with left-handed starter Scott Olsen, who is recovering from surgery to repair a labrum tear in his left shoulder, rather than go to arbitration. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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The Washington Nationals acquired Scott Olsen from Florida along with Josh Willingham in a November 11, 2008 trade that sent infielders Emilio Bonifacio and Jake Smolinski and pitcher P.J. Dean to the Marlins. The then-24-year-old left- hander was coming off a 2008 season which saw the the 4th-year starter post an (8-11) record with a 4.20 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 5.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Olsen signed a 1-year/$2.8M dollar deal with the Nationals, avoiding arbitration, but made just 11 starts in 2009 before he was shut down for the season with a tear in his left labrum which required surgery. Faced with the possibility of having to give the rehabbing arbitration eligible pitcher a raise for the 2010 season, Washington Post writer Chico Harlan is reporting in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "Nats will non-tender Olsen", that the Nationals have decided to part ways with the soon-to-be 26-year-old lefty, though Washington hasn't ruled out the possibility of bringing him back for (probably) far less than he would have been due...

Before midnight, The Post's Mr. Harlan reports, the Nationals must make decisions on what to do with their other arbitration eligible players: pitchers, Jason Bergmann, Sean Burnett and Mike MacDougal, catchers Wil Nieves and Jesus Flores, and outfielder Josh Willingham...

More news when it's available...

No word on how Olsen's rehab was progressing...Did the Nationals make the correct decision here? Is there any chance Olsen will return to DC?

Winter Meetings: Marlins Rumor Central

GameFish — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 15:47:23 -0000

The Winter Meetings are underway, and here at FishStripes the goal is to keep you as informed as possible on anything and everything that could be in the works for the Marlins. Yes, even the super ridiculous rumors that swirl about that we all know have about a .001% chance of actually happening. (We're all about the facts here at FishStripes.) Until the meetings end, just consider Craig and I the Sal Masekela and Catt Sadler of the baseball world. Except, you know, Craig's dreds aren't as long as Sal's, and I won't be wearing a micro-minidress or contorting my body into an extremely awkward/unnatural supermodel pose as I blog.

Check back often, as we'll be updating as the information comes in each day. Here is the latest:

[UPDATE] Matt Lindstrom has been traded to the Houston Astros for RHP Robert Bono and SS Luis Bryan.

JoeFrisaro: Heard don't put much stock into Cantu to Rangers reports. At this point, Cantu is expected back in Fla. Always subject to change

JoeFrisaro: Don't rule out Uggla winding up in San Fran. There is still smoke. Also, heard Marlins never asked for Bumgarner in return.

Grit 2 has signed with the Philths:

Word spread late tonight at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis that the Phillies had signed free agent outfielder Ross Gload. A baseball source said it was a two-year contract.

Both the Giants and the Orioles appear to be cooling off on Uggla:

JoeFrisaro: Uncertainty of how Uggla can handle 3B seems to be limiting his market. O's may be cooling.

The Giants are looking to add thump to their lineup, but not if it leads to more clanks in their infield. So they haven't amplified efforts to acquire Florida Marlins second baseman Dan Uggla, who might be the surest run-producing infielder available via trade or free agency.

mlbtraderumor: Rangers Interested In Jorge Cantu http://bit.ly/7M3tV8

JoeFrisaro: A lot of interest on Pinto. Nothing imminent.

JoeFrisaro: The Dodgers are inquiring about Alfredo Amezaga.

Emilio Bonifacio: The Audacity of Hope

GameFish — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 14:02:08 -0000

This might seem like a far-fetched idea, but I'm sure there were at least a few people who were disappointed when The Bonifacio Experiment™ finally ended last season. You know, like... maybe some of the members of Emilio's immediate family.

If you were one of those three people, our friend JCR at the Sun Sentinel has dug deep into the Bill James Handbook to find a reason for you to be filled with hope.

The manufactured runs section of the Bill James Handbook offers a pretty good indication of why the Marlins stuck with Bonifacio, and why come spring training they'll give him every opportunity to play himself into the starting lineup again.

Among National League players, only Michael Bourn (47) had a higher manufactured runs contribution than Bonifacio (32), who ranked ahead of David Wright (31), Dexter Fowler (29), Troy Tulowitzki (27), Matt Kemp (27) and Hanley Ramirez (27).

...

Thanks mostly to Bonifacio, Ramirez, and Chris Coghlan, who was third on the team with 21 manufactured runs, the Marlins ranked fifth in the NL with 169 manufactured runs. Ahead of them: the Mets (181), Reds (173), Dodgers ( 172) and Rockies (172). For the Marlins, that's a huge improvement over 2008, when they finished second-to-last in the majors with 125 manufactured runs, ahead of only the Padres (104). The Marlins in 2009 were considerably less dependent on home runs and extra-base hits.

So I guess if there's a positive side to being an out machine, it's being a productive-out machine. And if manufactured runs contribution can make up for his OBP and, well, everything else, the Marlins may have reason to continue The Bonifacio Experiment™ next season.

Or at the very least, we have one less reason to complain about it.

Dan Uggla seriously on the trading block

craig — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:18:51 -0000

As we all know Dan Uggla is being shopped by the Marlins, and here is one more report.

A general manager who spoke to the Marlins at last week's GM meetings said their No. 1 priority is trading Dan Uggla for cheap, young talent. ``There's a decent market for him,'' the GM said, with the Braves, Orioles and Giants among options. Emilio Bonifacio could replace him at second. ``That's his best defensive position but his bat is still a question,'' the GM said.

Seeing Danny leave the team will be bad enough. Compounded it by making Bonifacio an everyday player again, is like driving the final nail in the coffin. Yes, I do understand that Bonifacio is young and it is still possible he may quit being an out machine. But until he can prove that somewhere else, the club has minor league teams you know, I'm not ready to watch the 2010 season being another on the job training sessions that goes completely awry.

Yarrr, Reds be walkin' the plank, blow another win late, lose 3-2

Slyde — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 02:06:57 -0000

More photos » by Tom Uhlman - AP

Drew Stubbs led off the game with his 8th home run of the season. Literally dozens of fans got to see it.

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The Reds broke out their freshly minted vinyl single and flipped it over to hear the B-side, only to find out that it was the same song they played last night. Drew Stubbs gave the Reds the lead with his 3rd lead-off home run of the season, but that was basically all the offense the Reds saw in the first 7 innings.

Bronson Arroyo had another outstanding start. He surrendered a single run in the 5th on a Jorge Cantu's 16th home run of the season, but shut the Marlins down for the rest of the night, until the 8th. After Ryan Hanigan had given the Reds their 2nd lead of the game on his 3rd home run of the season, a solo shot, Arroyo promptly gave the lead back up in the 8th. Emilio Bonifacio led off with a double and then scored on Ross Gload's one out home run, his fifth of the season. Those two runs gave the Marlins their only lead of the game, but it was enough to take home the victory.

This game was the 7th time in Arroyo's last 9 starts that the offense has scored 3 runs or fewer. It's amazing that he had 8 wins midway through the season when his ERA was nearly 6, but he's just 5-5 since then with an ERA of 2.21. Clearly, the offense hates good pitching.

Tonight's loss guarantees that the Reds won't have a winning season for the 9th season in a row. But hey, they can still go .500 if they win the rest of their games, right? Shiver me timbers!

Emilio Bonifacio hoping to play winter ball

craig — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 15:38:29 -0000

Emilio Bonifacio is trying to get permission from the Marlins to play winter ball.

Emilio Bonifacio had great numbers for Licey in the Dominican winter league last offseason and he would like to reprise his role. The Marlins have not yet given him the green light, but Bonifacio said it would be a great help considering he's totaled just 11 at-bats since Aug. 23.

Oh heck, let him. Maybe he will get better. Just so long as everyone understands that good winter ball numbers do not always translate into good MLB numbers. If nothing else, maybe they will teach him how to lay down a sacrifice bunt. Which is definitely something he hasn't mastered.

Sorry, Florida Marlins, Sorry! Washington Nationals Win 5-3.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 03:30:10 -0000

More photos » by Jeffrey Boan - AP

"THE BIG OPPOSITE FIELD DOES IT AGAIN!!!" -- Washington Nationals' Adam Dunn hits a two-run home run off Florida Marlins' pitcher Josh Johnson during the first inning of a baseball game in Miami, Friday, Sept 11, 2009. (AP Photo/Jeffrey M. Boan)

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First and third, one out in the Florida Marlins' ninth. Washington's up 5-3 after DC closer Mike MacDougal gives up a HR to Dan Uggla to start the frame. Florida left fielder Chris Coghlan steps to the plate as the winning run. MacDougal throws three straight fastballs, 97, 97 and 96 and all on the outside corner looking for the doub--...

We Interrupt This Game Report For A Word From DC GM Mike Rizzo:

Mike Rizzo: "With the pitchers, with pitchers, I'm a big ground ball guy. I think ground balls are better than fly balls, because with a ground ball you have a chance to get two outs with one pitch..."

MacDougal's 3 outs into a 5-out save and he's two outs away from his 15th save in 16 opportunities, and he throws another fastball outside to the Marlins' outfielder, Coghlan connects and sends a ground ball out toward second where Cristian Guzman waits for it, fields, steps on second and throws to first, double play to end the Nationals' 49th win of 2009, and the first of the year on the road against Florida. Washington wins for just the 5th time in 16 games played against the Marlins this season, "The Big Opposite Field" Adam Dunn hits his 37th HR of '09 to left for a two-run blast in the first, Ryan Zimmerman hits #29 in the seventh after Mike Morse knocks in two with an RBI double to deep center in the sixth and J.D. Martin (4-4, 4.29 ERA) gets the Curly-W and climbs up to .500 with 5.0 IP in which he allows 2 hits, 4 walks and 2 runs.

[Mike Rizzo Points To His Head]...

Nationals win, 5-3 final.

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

Check Out The SB Nation's Florida Marlins Blog: FishStripes - Open Thread And Ichthyomancy.

"Game 141: Only a little "interesting"..." - Doghouse.

BACKPAGE: (under construction - 11:20 pm)

• J.D. Martin Is Legit.

• #37 Goes Where?

• Mike Morse Wins It For DC...

For The Completists, Full Game Report After The JUMP...

Nationals now 49-92.

BACKPAGE: (under construction)...

• J.D. Martin Is Legit.

J.D. Martin gave up two runs in the bottom of the first, (on Hanley Ramirez's 23rd HR, a two-run blast after a one-out walk to Nick Johnson), letting Florida right back in the game after Adam Dunn's two-run HR in the top of the first off Marlins' right-hander Josh Johnson. Martin allows just one other hit and three walks over the next four innings, throwing 97 pitches in all, and popping up Jorge Cantu twice with two on to keep it tied. Tyler Clippard takes over for Martin in the sixth and throws 2.0 scoreless, striking out four and giving up just one hit. Jason Bergmann gets the first out of the eighth and hands the ball to Mike MacDougal who records the 5-out save to lock down Martin's 4th win.

• #37 Goes Where?

Adam Dunn took the first fastball he got from Josh Johnson in the first for a called strike, and he took the second one off the low outside corner and dropped it over the wall in left field for a 331ft HR over a 330ft fence. Dunn now needs just 3 HR's in the Nationals' last 20 games to get to the 40 HR mark he's reached or surpassed in each of the last 5 seasons. The Big Opposite Field goes to left again.

• Mike Morse Wins It For DC...

Mike Morse's two-run double to center might have gone out of some parks, but Morse hit the two-out line drive to straight center in Dolphin Stadium (ed. note - "What? Land Shark Park? Field? Land Shark Stadium? Are you serious? Whatever...") off Marlins' reliever Brian Sanches so it just fell into the outfield grass over Cameron Maybin's head to knock in Josh Willingham who'd walked to start the inning and Wil Nieves, who hit a two-out single to finally move Willingham to second. Morse now has 5 RBI's on 3 hits in his last 3 at bats.

GAME REPORT:

Washington Nationals At Florida Marlins. Game 141 Of 162.

Florida starter Josh Johnson walks Willie Harris in the first at bat of this evening’s game. Cristian Guzman, who’s starting at short, K’s swinging through a 2-2 slider inside. Ryan Zimmerman can’t catch up to a 95 mph two-strike fastball. Adam D- SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! Adam Dunn goes opposite field and just gets it over the fence at the end of the scoreboard. #37 for Dunn, 2-0 DC. Josh Willingham K’s looking to end the top of the first...J.D. Martin throws a two-strike fastball by Florida’s leadoff hitter, Chris Coghlan. NIck Johnson uses his Discerning Eye to draw a one-out walk and Hanley Ramirez ties it with one swing, slapping a first pitch fastball to left and GONE, 2-2 ballgame. Jorge Cantu flies out deep to center and Willie Harris. Josh Willingham takes a knee to catch a line drive from John Baker.

Elijah Dukes rips a single through short to start the second. Wil Nieves grounds to second and Dan Uggla throws it away trying for the force. First and second for J.D. Martin. Martin pops up a bunt attempt, and John Baker catches it. Willie Harris takes strike three on a low fastball outside...Dan Uggla flies out to Dukes in right. Cody Ross pops up the infield, Adam Dunn makes the catch. J.D. Martin hits the low inside corner with a two-strike heater to get Cameron Maybin looking.

Cristian Guzman pops out to left, Chris Coghlan sprints over to make the catch. Ryan Zimmerman walks with one down to give Dunn another chance. Johnson throws a 2-2 fastball by Adam Dunn. Josh Willingham takes a two-out walk. Elijah Dukes chops the third out to Cantu at, uh, third...Josh Johnson lines just over Guzman’s glove at short for a leadoff single. Chris Coghlan grounds to Pete Orr at second, Orr throws to first. Dukes goes back to the track to catch Nick Johnson’s fly ball out. Hanley Ramirez gets the intentionals. Jorge Cantu flies out to Willingham in left to end the third.

Pete Orr K’s swinging over a sharp slider inside. Wil Nieves grounds out to second. Josh Johnson blows J.D. Martin away with a fastballf for strike three...John Baker walks to start the Marlins’ fourth. Dan Uggla takes strike three on an 0-2 bender outside. Cody Ross moves the catcher over. Cameron Maybin grounds to short, Guzman takes the force at second.

Willie Harris walks to start the fifth. Cristian Guzman gets another one of those breaking balls inside, strike three. Ryan Zimmerman skies the second out to center. Adam Dunn grounds into the shift to end the top of the fifth...Gaby Sanchez hits for Johnson in the Fish’s fifth. J.D. Martin busts him inside to get Sanchez swinging. Guzman GOES TO HIS LEFT and just gets to a grounder from Chris Coghlan. J.D. Martin hits Nick Johnson. Hanley Ramirez gets the intentionals and Martin gets the groundout from Jorge Cantu to end the fifth.

Brian Sanches comes on for Florida and walks the first batter he faces, Josh Willingham. Elijah Dukes flies out to the track in left, just missed. Chris Coghlan catches the second out off Pete Orr’s bat. Wil Nieves rips a single over short to bring up Mike Morse with two on. Morse lines to deeep center and off Cameron Maybin at the wall. Two runs score, 4-2 DC. Willie Harris pops up to the infield to end the Nationals’ sixth...Crisitian Guzman charges and double pumps a throw to first to just get John Baker. Tyler Clippard vs Dan Uggla. Clippard throws a full-count change by Uggla up high. Clippard gets Cody Ross swinging too.

Andrew Miller takes over on the mound for the Marlins. Cristian Guzman sends a soft fly over second, Dan Uggla sprints into center to catch it. Ryan Zimmerman rips a fastball to left and over the out-of-town scoreboard for #29 of ‘09. 5-2 Nationals. Adam Dunn walks with one down. Josh Willingham grounds to short, Hanley Ramirez to Uggla to Johnson at first, double play...Clippard gets Cameron Maybin swinging at a high two-strike fastball. Pinch hitter Brett Hayes K’s too. Chris Coghlan flies out to right to end the seventh.

Christhian Martinez gets a fly ball out to center right from Dukes. Pete Orr flies out to left. Wil Nieves walks with two down. Clippard pops out behind second to end the top of the eighth...Clippard’s back and he gives up a leadoff double to deep center to Nick Johnson before Jim Riggleman lifts him. Jason Bergmann vs Hanley Ramirez. A wild pitch from Bergmann moves Nick Johnson to third. Hanley Ramirez eventually walks. Jorge Cantu pops out to the infield, Dunn catches it with two hands. Mike McDougal replaces Bergmann and gets two outs with one pitch, John Baker grounds to second, Orr to Guzman to Dunn, double play.

Willie Harris vs Christhian Martinez. Willie Harris walks again. Nick Johnson takes a force at second on a weak grounder by Cristian Guzman. Ryan Zimmerman hits it hard enough for an inning ending DP...MacDougal’s back. Dan Uggla takes a high outside fastball to left and into the second deck. 5-3 DC. Cody Ross lines a single to center. Ross Gload hits for Maybin. Brett Carroll comes on to run for Gload, who walks, and Emilio Bonifacio gets a pinch hit chance. MacDougal gets Bonifacio to chase a 1-2 sinker out of the zone. One down. Chris Coghlan grounds to short, Guzman fields, steps on second, throws to first, double play to end it!! Nationals win, 5-3 final.

Nationals now 49-92.

The Worst Brewers Seasons Hitting With RISP

TheJay — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 18:00:33 -0000

Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Watching J.J. Hardy Hit

It may sound strange following a 1-5 homestand in which the team hit a measly .116 with runners in scoring position, but the Brewers actually haven't been that bad with RISP this year. In fact, they're a hair above average both in the NL and for all of MLB. Their performance with RISP mirrors their hitting overall: slightly above average at getting on base and a little more above average in power.

As with all team batting numbers, some players inflate the average and some bring it down. The usual suspects are atop the team leaderboard: Prince Fielder and Casey McGehee are cleaning up with RISP, while Felipe Lopez and Ryan Braun are close behind. Craig Counsell is sitting right at the team average. Jason Kendall is contributing at a rate slightly below his overall numbers, which is to say he isn't doing much at all. However, there is one Brewer struggling even more than Kendall with runners on second or third: J.J. Hardy.

Through yesterday's game, J.J. Hardy is hitting .190/.272/.241 in 137 plate appearances with RISP in 2009. His 137 PA is good for fourth-most on the team, behind Fielder, Braun, and Cameron. He is one of only ten major leaguers to bat 100 times with runners in scoring position this season and put up an OPS under .600. For the record: the others are Robinson Cano, Ivan Rodriguez, Dioner Navarro, Emilio Bonifacio, the aforementioned Kendall, Rick Ankiel, Vernon Wells, Rafael Furcal, and Mike Fontenot. This isn't new for Hardy, either. Last year he sputtered to a .609 OPS in 160 plate appearances. He has matched his 2008 RISP RBI total in 23 fewer tries, though, so it's not all bad in 2009.

Now, it's not with an eye to sullying Hardy's reputation even further that I'm posting all this. Consider, for example, that the past two seasons have totaled fewer than 400 plate appearances with RISP. That's about four months' worth of at bats. Certainly it's not enough to judge a player's ability. Consider also his work with RISP in his first three seasons: a robust .298/.393/.440 line. For whatever reason, the last two seasons have not been kind to Hardy with runners on second or third. Maybe the baseball gods don't like soap operas. Who knows.

Whatever the reason, it doesn't take away from the fact his season in 2009 has been historic. If he doesn't play another game this season, he would finish with the third-worst OPS with RISP in a season in team history, minimum 100 plate appearances.

Name	Year	PA	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chad Moeller	2004	108	20	.146	.224	.219	.443
Rick Auerbach	1972	135	24	.193	.276	.210	.486
J.J. Hardy	2009	137	35	.190	.272	.241	.513
Brady Clark	2006	113	20	.202	.286	.234	.520
Mike Ferraro	1972	104	24	.239	.282	.250	.532
Gerald Williams	1997	144	28	.205	.248	.283	.532
Tim Johnson	1973	121	29	.241	.283	.250	.533
Gary Sheffield	1989	111	26	.219	.284	.260	.545
Jim Gantner	1986	137	31	.198	.284	.261	.545
Eric Young	2002	115	25	.189	.277	.274	.550

I guess we know now why the 1972 team was hard up for runs. I included RBI because I think it's interesting that Hardy has already beaten everyone on this list. The next-lowest OPS for someone with 35 or more RBI is Charlie Moore's .567 in 1982.

Tim Johnson's appearance brings up another interesting point. Baseball-reference has something called tOPS+ for each player's splits. It basically compares his OPS in the split to his overall OPS. Like OPS+, anything over 100 means he did better in that split than overall. Johnson actually had a 112 tOPS+ for that anemic 1973 performance with RISP. He was just an awful hitter. He also had a pretty strange ending to his managerial stint with Toronto.

You may suspect that Hardy shows up on a tOPS+ leaderboard as well. You would be correct. In fact, he shows up twice on the list of 10 worst seasons with RISP in terms of tOPS+. I guess a better way to say it would be that these guys suddenly lost their ability to hit when runners were on second or third.

Name	Year	PA	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	tOPS+
Johnny Briggs	1972	129	41	.193	.260	.339	.599	49
Brady Clark	2006	113	20	.202	.286	.234	.520	52
J.J. Hardy	2008	160	35	.221	.308	.301	.609	53
Eric Young	2002	115	25	.189	.277	.274	.550	56
Sixto Lezcano	1977	121	22	.194	.339	.306	.645	56
Chad Moeller	2004	108	20	.146	.224	.219	.443	57
J.J. Hardy	2009	137	35	.190	.272	.241	.513	59
Damian Miller	2005	129	29	.182	.344	.242	.586	60
Jim Gantner	1986	137	31	.198	.284	.261	.545	61
Dave Nilsson	1997	179	52	.238	.318	.325	.643	63

Hardy still has the better part of a month (albeit not starting consistently) to work his way off these lists. A brief hot streak should do the trick, though it's hard to see how he could reverse his recent futility that drastically. Then again, stranger things have happened. Since it seems obvious Hardy will not be back in Milwaukee in 2010, it will be interesting to see if a change of scenery and coaching staff brings his performance with runners in scoring position back in line with his overall totals.

Rockies visit "Land Shark" for the first time

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 17:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Rookie Chris Coghlan, who was first called up this season before the Rox-Fish series at Coors in May, has really jumpstarted the Marlins' lineup.

Browse more photos »

What a squirrely team. There's no other way to say it really. The Marlins have been all over the map this season, leading the NL East by 5 games with an 11-1 record, then being outscored by 44 on their way to a 3-13 record. They went a franchise record 20 games without a starting pitcher earning a win. And now?

Florida is a sizzling 15-9 since the All-Star Break, yet have been swept twice. That stretch includes yet another franchise record - coming into this series, the Marlins have recorded at least ten hits in 10 straight games, obliterating their previous record of six from 2000. The Yankees have such a streak of seven games, and five teams have managed streaks of six, but no one else has been close to this type of offensive productivity.

And yet...Florida has lost four of those ten games, meaning they lost ground to half their divisional foes and made up no ground in the wild card during the historic streak. Squirrely.

The Marlins' 32-27 mark at home is hardly intimidating for a contender, especially considering it's just a half game better than the Rockies' 32-28 road mark. They may have hot bats, but they are vulnerable, and the Rockies definitely have a chance to issue redemption for the series the Marlins took at Coors in May. But who knows. The Marlins are weird.

I have found the Marlins' fans to be quite friendly at FishStripes

Florida Marlins (61-54, W1, 2nd & 4.5 GB Div, 3rd & 3.0 GB WC)

Friday-Sunday : 3-game series at Land Shark Stadium

The Bats: B

Florida wasted a lot of at-bats on underperformers early in the season. Emilio Bonifacio, he of the miserable .276 wOBA, still leads the team in ABs. Brett Carroll and Cameron Maybin also brought down the offense by disappointing in the outfield. As a result, the squirreliness continues. Only one hitter in the lineup is below average (by both Fangraphs' wOBA and OPS+), yet the team team wOBA is below league average. Whatever. That's an indicator to give less credence to team-wide stats. The lineup Fredi Gonzalez fields now is not only capable, but they're so hot right now:

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Chris Coghlan - LF	.287	6	29	.369	.416	.351
Nick Johnson - 1B	.296	7	48	.418	.406	.368
Hanley Ramirez - SS	.351	17	71	.413	.563	.421
Jorge Cantu - 3B	.275	11	63	.336	.428	.334
John Baker - C	.280	8	37	.352	.443	.346
Dan Uggla - 2B	.240	20	60	.353	.448	.350
Cody Ross - CF	.264	20	64	.321	.483	.346
Jeremy Hermida - RF	.255	11	44	.344	.383	.323

That's a solid lineup all the way down. By wOBA metrics, the it features one hitter performing at a Superstar level (Ramirez), five solidly above average bats (Coghlan, Johnson, Baker, Uggla, Ross), one average hitter (Cantu), and one slightly below average hitter (Hermida). That spread of wOBA across those ranges is quite reminiscent to the Rockies, but Florida does it in a pitcher's park.

The aforementioned ousted Bonifacio (.249, 1, 24) is listed as a bench infielder, but with only three outfielders on the roster total, Emilio logs innings in the outfield as well as being the only potential reserve middle infielder, though Coghlan could slide in from left if necessary. Ross Gload (.267, 4, 19) and Wes Helms (.268, 2, 23) serve as corner infield pinch hit LR platoon types, and Ronny Paulino (.267, 5, 17) fills in as the reserve backstop.

I'm going to ignore the below average OPS+ and wOBA and give the offense a B. The additions of Johnson and Coghlan have squelched two huge problem areas and legitimized the whole lineup. Their depth is a threat, though the lineup is also atypically erratic. They are capable of scoring 14 runs one night, then turning around and scoring one the next two games. The fact that the young lineup is overflowing with confidence must be taken into account.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups and the hot/cold players.

The Arms: C

The Rockies draw the Marlins' ace tonight, an underrated 25yo who is sixth in ESPN's Cy Young Predictor. The other two starting pitchers are not quite as scary. Chris Volstad has taken two large steps back from last year despite practically identical BABIPs, and Rick VandenHurk is no one to worry about particularly. The staff has a very average 4.35 ERA (17th), with an ERA/FIP/tRA split for the rotation of 4.67/4.27/4.86. For the bullpen, it's 3.79/3.95/4.42. Nothing too fantastic.

25yo and former Royal Leo Nunez has replaced Matt Lindstrom as the closer.

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Leo Nunez	3-4	4.01	1.24	47	20

Renyel Pinto and Dan Meyer are Fredi Gonzalez' lefties. Former closer Matt Lindstrom is back from injury, and he's joined on the right side by Kiko Calero, former replacement play Brendan Donnelly, Chris LeRoux, and Brian Sanches. Calero has been the greatest asset out of the pen.

The D: D

Florida's 73 errors are 8th in MLB, while their UZR/150 is below average, yet those numbers have the benefit of positive defensive play by Bonifacio and Maybin that the Marlins just aren't getting now. Hanley Ramirez is a decent fielding shortstop these days, and Nick Johnson is an asset at first. Otherwise, it isn't pretty. The starting outfield has very poor range and defensive values off the board, and let's just say Dan Uggla's performance in the All-Star Game last year wasn't as much of an anomaly as he'd like you to think.

The Ballpark: Moderate Pitcher's Park

Land Shark Stadium (formerly Dolphin Stadium) has a park factor of 97 this year, though it is 99 in the multi-year spectrum. It strongly limits home runs but has a soft spot for triples.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 5:10 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jason Hammel	7-6	4.66	1.52	81	25

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Jason Hammel 7-6 4.66 1.52 81 25

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Josh Johnson	11-2	2.92	1.10	129	37

Hammel's ERA on the road is still under 3, has quietly won consecutive starts to push him over .500, impressive for a fifth starter, especially considering his competition of late. He's faced the ace or #2 pitcher in every game of the second half - Kevin Correia, Matt Cain, Johan Santana, (Jamie Moyer), and now Josh Johnson. The .363 BABIP he is allowing is 75 points higher than last year in Tampa. Often, a starter with an ERA under 3.00 is a bit lucky. Not Johnson - his FIP is 2.99. He has tossed quality starts in 18 of 20 and allows HR at the 9th lowest MLB rate by inducing the 8th-most ground balls. His big weapon is that 95mph fastball, though his slider and change are well above average too. Favors: MARLINS strongly

Saturday, August 8, 4:10 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Aaron Cook	10-4	3.93	1.41	73	41

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Rick VandenHurk	2-1	4.15	1.38	24	10

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Aaron Cook 10-4 3.93 1.41 73 41

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Rick VandenHurk 2-1 4.15 1.38 24 10

Cook is coming off a toe injury, hopefully the cause of the atypical 3 HR he allowed in the last two games. In his last start, he lost for the first time in 11 games, helped in part by a career-high strikeout rate. His Dutch counterpart will strike guys out very well, which could be a problem for the Rockies' lineup, but he walks a fair amount and has a tendency to allow the big fly, which of course, play to strengths of the Rox. His FIP and tRA suggest an extremely fortunate first five starts this season. If Cook remains healthy and we don't see Adam Eaton...
Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Sunday, August 16, 3:05 pm MDT

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	10-8	4.78	1.38	131	54

	W-L	ERA	WHIP	K	BB
2009 - Chris Volstad	8-9	4.71	1.32	96	44

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Jorge De La Rosa 10-8 4.78 1.38 131 54

W-L ERA WHIP K BB

2009 - Chris Volstad 8-9 4.71 1.32 96 44

Jorge has now thrown 130 IP the last three years each, on the nose. The first out he records will be a career high, and he can set a career mark with his 11th win as well. He has been the pitcher of record in 15 straight starts, winning 10 of his last 12, so there's a good trend there. Volstad has talent but has struggled this season more than anyone expected. Part of the reason is that he's allowed 23 HR, third most in the NL, disturbing in the HR squelching environment of Land Shark. Other than his HR/FB, peripherals show no regression from his rookie year. BABIPs and GB rate are in line, walks have decreased and strikeouts have increased. He has a lot of talent though....Favors: ROCKIES slightly

In the last ten games, Hanley Ramirez is hitting .429, Chris Coghlan is at .438, and Dan Uggla is a respectable .394. Coghlan has a 12-game hit streak, which started with nine straight multi-hit games. Nick Johnson is hitting .308 with a .500 OBP since joining the Marlins. The team is hitting .315 with an .887 OPS in August. Pinto, Donnelly, Sanches, and Calero all have ERA's under 2.0 since the ASB.

Jorge Cantu is the big name struggling through the August streak, hitting .196 (10-for-51). Cody Ross is hitting just .212 since the All-Star Break, though he leads the team with 6 HR in that span. Dan Meyer has been scored upon on half of his last 4, and Chris Volstad has allowed 6 HR and 21 ER in 34 IP since the break.

Anibal Sanchez (shoulder - 6/3), Alfredo Amezaga (knee - 5/17), and Scott Proctor (elbow - 3/27) are on the 60-day DL. Burke Badenhop (trapezius - 8/2) is on the 15-day.

Poll

Who wins?

The Rockies in a sweep: Florida is vulnerable at home and can't win games with hot bats....it only gets worse for them against good pitching

19 votes

The Rockies 2-1: The Marlins continue their BABIP streak while still managing to lose games.

141 votes

The Marlins 1-2: Tonight's game is a tall task, and Florida is a hot confident team. Winning a series would be tough.

51 votes

The Marlins in a sweep: All three Rockies pitchers are slight question marks due to recent starts. The Marlins will pummel them

14 votes

225 votes | Poll has closed