SB Nation - Pat Burrell

Rule 5 Applesauce - Rangers Sign Harden, Worrying About Pelfrey, Boras Speaks And Twitter Is Still Ridiculous

James Kannengieser — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 12:45:08 -0000

Former Rule 5 picks include Dan Uggla and our own Johan Santana, so you never know what gems might be found.

Meet the Mets

The Mets pick 7th in today's Rule 5 Draft. Check out Mark's list of potential picks from a few weeks back. MLBTradeRumors also offers up a preview.

Scott Boras says the Mets have the financial resources to sign any player they choose. He's probably right. The organization's real problem is determining which players to sign.

John Harper recently perpetuated the myth that Mike Pelfrey took a major step backwards in 2009, despite evidence that suggests otherwise. Ted Berg and Matt Cerrone weigh in on the topic.

Metstradamus riffs on the debunked Pat Burrell rumor and the possibility of signing Elmer Dessens. This had me laughing:

Funny how neither Dessens, Blanco, Pedro Martinez, Carlos Baerga, Mackey Sasser, nor anybody else with "intangibles" needed to be in the room to mentor Oliver when he signed that $36 million contract. Weird, huh?

Patrick Flood offers up his take on the inevitable Bengie Molina/Mets relationship.

Mets Police comments on the Sports Illustrated All-Decade team, which Carlos Beltran and Johan Santana were named too. MP also implies he would rather have Wally Backman on his team instead of Jeff Kent due to their respective effects on team chemistry. I'll take the probable Hall of Famer.

Around the NL East

Jayson Stark tweets that the Braves are only asking for prospects in return for Derek Lowe.

The Marlins traded Matt Lindstrom to the Astros for two minor leaguers and a PTBNL.

Federal Baseball wraps up the Nationals activity at the winter meetings.

The Good Phight is holding out hope for a Roy Halladay trade. Halladay, Lee and Hamels would be frightening and probably unstoppable.

Around MLB

The Royals offered Jason Kendall a two year contract. Umm, what?

The Mariners signed Corey Patterson to a minor league deal. Walkoff Walk has some advice for M's manager Don Wakamatsu regarding Patterson.

The Astros signed Brandon Lyon for three years, $15 million. Seems a bit excessive.

Mike Cameron's agent says his client has a special place in his heart for Seattle. Too bad the Mariners already have an awesome center fielder.

The Rangers signed Rich Harden and traded Kevin Millwood to the Orioles for Chris Ray. Evan Brunell at The Hardball Times weighs in.

Tampa Bay Rays News and Rumors for December 8th: Carl Crawford for Carlos Quentin Swap Discussed, Brian Shouse Rejects Arbitration, Rays Offered Bobby Abreu Two Years, Interest in Matt Capps, and More

R.J. Anderson — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:49:20 -0000

Carl Crawford

This one was posted in the previous thread, but for those who missed it:

Sources with Tampa Bay and the Sox said the sides had talked several times this offseason, not only checking out closer Bobby Jenks and his availability in a deal, but more specifically a trade that would have sent Carlos Quentin to the Rays for Carl Crawford.

The author also quotes White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen on such rumors, who says:

''A lot of people know what the White Sox need because Kenny talks to so many teams,'' Guillen said. ''Obviously, we need a leadoff hitter, left fielder, we're looking for that. But right now Carlos is prepared to have a pretty good year. The last 10 games of the season, he was the Carlos we expected.

Not to let the proverbial cat out of the bag, but Jenks fits the a similar profile of Kevin Gregg, Matt Lindstrom, and Matt Capps. Each is an end-game reliever coming off a rocky season with longball issues. Salary issues are probably going to prevent Jenks from ever donning a Rays cap, he's due at least $5.6M next season.

Brian Shouse

Good news here. Shouse declined arbitration, which means if/when he signs with another team, the Rays will receive an additional draft choice.

Milton Bradley/Pat Burrell

Nothing's changed. Here's the latest Sun Times piece to prove it.

Matt Lindstrom

A quick update on everybody's favorite Marlin reliever nowadays:

The Texas Rangers and, to a lesser degree, the Tampa Bay Rays are among teams inquiring about the Marlins' hard-throwing right-hander — even though Lindstrom had an inconsistent season.

Bobby Abreu

USA Today has a somewhat interesting note about the contract offer the Rays made last year to Abreu:

Two years ago, the Yankees gave Jorge Posada, a catcher who had turned 36 on Aug. 17, a four-year, $52 million contract. A year later, they let outfielder Bobby Abreu, then 34, walk away after he posted at least 100 RBI for the sixth season in a row.

Abreu spent most of the winter waiting for a big payday. There were plenty of offers, with 10 teams expressing interest, agent Peter Greenberg says, yet only the Tampa Bay Rays offered more than a one-year deal.

The Rays also offered more money than he wound up signing for.

Matt Capps

From the Post-Gazette:

Two sources confirmed yesterday that the Pirates have threatened to non-tender Capps, although that tends to be a negotiating tactic.

[...]

Several teams have asked the Pirates about Capps, including the Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays.

Such a move would seemingly lower Capps value, but maybe Neal Huntington knows something I don't.

---

More to come.

Twitter Is Ridiculous Applesauce - Omar Meets The Agents, Juan Pierre Is Available And Nonsensical Rumors

James Kannengieser — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 14:05:48 -0000

It seems reporters/"journalists" are neglecting to consider source bias and failing to corroborate rumors with multiple sources before posting on Twitter or a blog. All in the name of page hitzzz I suppose.

Meet the Mets

Omar Minaya met with the agents for various players last night, including John Lackey, Jason Marquis, Bengie Molina, Joel Pineiro and Randy Wolf.

In an interview with Daily 'Stache, Adam Rubin says the Mets should focus on pitching this offseason, namely Lackey. He also says Jeff Francoeur is the most reliable provider of good quotes.

Steve Henson says that 3-4 teams are interested in Dodgers OF Juan Pierre. A trade for Pierre would likely include a bad contract player, AKA Luis Castillo. No thanks on Pierre. Speaking of undesirable players, Jerry Crasnick reports that Elmer Dessens will likely re-sign with the Mets. If it's a major league deal you better get ready for Dessens Avenue.

Ken Davidoff tweets that Yorvit Torrealba is on the Mets radar. Interesting, considering the bizarre chain of events involving the Mets and Torrealba two offseasons ago.

Joel Sherman reports that a John Maine for Corey Hart trade is being discussed. Hart is just 27 years old and two years removed from a 4+ win season but I'd rather hold on to Maine. Will at BlueAndOrange agrees and thinks the deal is plausible, especially considering Omar Minaya's affinity for bad corner outfielders.

Mets Fever is also a fan of Adam Kennedy. If Castillo can be moved, Kennedy is the way to go.

LOL Rumors of the Day

Early yesterday it was reported that Pat Burrell had been traded to the Mets. This story was debunked almost immediately and the original story has been taken down from PhillyBlurbs, the website with the original report. Folks, cool it with your bogus anonymous sources, you're not providing a valuable service and it's annoying. No one is impressed.

Ed Price of Fanhouse tweeted the following yesterday:

Rumor that #Mets acquire Edwin Jackson

This was followed shortly by a clarification tweet from Price:

To be clear: #Mets and Edwin Jackson not confirmed. Heard in the lobby.

Why not get confirmation before posting the rumor? Does "heard in the lobby" count as a reliable source nowadays?

Around MLB

The Nationals gave Pudge Rodriguez 2 years, $6 million for some reason.

Randy Wolf reportedly signed with the Brewers for 3 years and an unknown dollar amount.

Chuck Brownson at The Hardball Times discusses swaps for bad contracts, including Dontrelle Willis, Milton Bradley, Gil Meche and Kevin Millwood.

Tim Marchman thinks an intra-Chicago trade between the Cubs and White Sox involving Milton Bradley makes sense.

Matt Murton, a notorious ginger and player good enough to start on many major league teams, is going to play for the Hanshin Tigers in Japan. I wonder if Murton realizes he's good enough for MLB.

Off topic link of the day: Tom Tango reviews the incredibly enjoyable movie Taken and heaps justifiable praise on Liam Neeson. I agree with him, Taken is fantastic.

MLB Trade Rumors: Alfonso Soriano to the Braves for Derek Lowe?

raygu — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 18:00:16 -0000

by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

4 months ago: Chicago Cubs' Alfonso Soriano launches a grand slam off Houston Astros relief pitcher Chris Sampson during the 13th inning of a baseball game Monday, July 27, 2009, at Wrigley Field in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

View full size photo »

Everyone knows that the Braves are looking to deal one of their excess starting pitchers, starting with Derek Lowe. We all know they will deal either Lowe or Javier Vazquez. How about dealing one bad contract for another? Alfonso Soriano to play left field for Derek Lowe?

The Cubs have been rumored to deal Milton Bradley to the Rays for Pat Burrell, but where would Burrell play? He can only play LF or maybe 1B, but the Cubs have Derrek Lee at 1B. It would make sense for the Braves as they need a power bat in their lineup, and they aren''t going to get alot if they deal Lowe, so why not take on another bad contract in Soriano.

Soriano will make $18 million in each of the next 5 years through 2014, while Lowe will make $15 million in 2010-2012. If the Cubs eat some of Soriano's contract, or throw in a prospect or two, it might even out the deal.

The Cubs would use Lowe to replace free agent starting pitcher Rich Harden, and team him up with Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells in the Cubs rotation.

Does this deal make sense for both teams?

Poll

Who would hang up first in a proposed deal of Alfonso Soriano for Derek Lowe?

Tampa Bay Rays News and Rumors for December 7th: Interest in Kevin Gregg, Update on Milton Bradley Swap, The Mets Interest in Pat Burrell, and More

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 17:00:30 -0000

New/General Rumors

Up first, a Tweet from Yahoo! Sports writer Tim Brown:

Early market for Kevin Gregg: Rays, Nats, Tigers, Rockies...

Gregg was eligible for Type-A compensation but the Cubs chose against offering him arbitration due to a poor season. His career FIP is 4.00 and last year it was 4.93. Wanna know the secret behind that horrible year? It has to do with the fact that 15% of his fly balls went over the fence, his previous career high was 11.6% and his career percentage even now is 8.5%. That's what we call a prime candidate for regression towards the mean. Ignore the home runs (i.e. use xFIP) and Gregg had one of the best seasons of his career when it came to strikeouts and walks. He misses bats and should be a bit undervalued, I suppose it really comes down to asking price.

More after the jump, including the latest on Pat Burrell and Matt Lindstrom.

Pat Burrell/Milton Bradley

Next, we have a Tweet from the New York Post's Joel Sherman

#Rays growing less hopeful of swapping Burrell to #Cubs

Could be posturing, could be serious. Who knows. Lots of disinformation and bluffing will occur during these next few days. Keep that in mind. Same with this Tweet, also from Sherman:

If Burrell goes to #Cubs for MBradley, #Mets consider Castillo-for-Burrell, but r hesitant because of defense/makeup issues with Burrell

And finally -- for now -- there is a report out there that Burrell has been dealt to the Cubs, who then dealt him to the Mets. I'm not linking to it because A) It doesn't pass the smell test, and B) I think Sherman, Rosenthal, Olney, whomever would have more information by now, like, say, the other players names. We'll see.

[Note by R.J. Anderson, 12/07/09 12:37 PM EST ]An update on this comes from the aforementioned Tim Brown:

Rays source on Burrell to Mets: "News to us."

So there's that.

And here's this, from David Lennon of NewsDay:

lenno212

Oh, and forget Burrell to #Mets - period. Source just said team not interested in him. Not in 3-way, not in any way.

Matt Lindstrom

A Tweet from Buster Olney regarding Matt Lindstrom:

Rangers perhaps the most serious among teams in discussion for Matt Lindstrom. Two teams have fallen out of running, two other teams in.

And a Tweet from Frankie Piliere, formerly of the Rangers organization as a scout:

Rangers look like front runner for Lindstrom from what I've heard. Hard to find solid info on Lindstrom rumors but I think Tex is leading

This from the Miami Herald:

Lindstrom trade rumors are swirling, but I'm told that the Rangers' interest in the hard-throwing reliever is not as strong as some reports have led to believe. And the Rays' interest in Lindstrom is mild at best.

More coming throughout the day.

MLB Trade Rumors: Winter Meetings Coverage Begins Monday

raygu — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:00:17 -0000

by Aaron J. Latham - AP

2 months ago: San Diego Padres' David Eckstein, left, celebrates with teammate Adrian Gonzalez, right, after they scored on Gonzalez's home run in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009 in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Aaron J. Latham)

View full size photo »

We at Fake Teams will be covering the trades and signings that occur at the Winter Meetings that start today in Indianapolis. We will address the fantasy impact of the trades and signings that occur this week and throughout the offseason. The biggest name discussed at the Winter Meetings will be the Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay.

Some of the rumored deals could involve the following players changing uniforms:

Steve Henson from Yahoo Sports tweeted the following last night:

The Dodgers have 3-4 teams interested in $$ Juan Pierre and a 3-team deal is being explored to get L.A. a bad-contract starter in return.
The "bad contract" starter the Dodgers might get for Juan Pierre would not be Derek Lowe, a source said. That bridge has burned.

It appears the Yankees and Red Sox are the favorites for Roy Halladay. Halladay to the Yankees for a package of Jesus Montero and Phil Hughes? Halladay to the Red Sox for Clay Buchholz and Josh Reddick? Halladay to the Phils for J.A. Happ and Michael Taylor? The Giants may make sense for Dan Uggla, but where would he play with Freddy Sanchez at second? I'd be shocked if Adrian Gonzalez isn't dealt to the Red Sox now that former Sox Jed Hoyer is the new GM in San Diego. Josh Willingham in Atlanta makes sense.

Would the rumored Milton Bradley-Pat Burrell deal result in one of the worst outfields in the majors? How can Pat Burrell and Alfonso Soriano play in the same outfield? Pierre makes sense in St. Louis, Chicago and Cincinnati, especially with Dusty Baker managing the Reds. Pierre for Arroyo??

Poll

Who is more likely to get traded during the Winter Meetings this week?

Burrell-For-Bradley Rumor Rears Its Head Again

Al — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:26:50 -0000

More photos » by Mike Carlson - AP

Browse more photos »

This time, it comes via Joel Sherman at the New York Post, a source sometimes reputable, sometimes not (hat tip to MLBTR for the link). Sherman writes:

I hear that a trade of Tampa Bay’s Pat Burrell for the Cubs’ Milton Bradley is still a strong possibility. Burrell is due $9 million next year while Bradley has two years at $21 million left. Bradley also makes $9 million next year, so the sticking point is how much of the 2011 $12 million contract the Cubs are willing to absorb to complete a trade. My hunch is that the Cubs would have to eat at least half and make that a $6 million contract for the Rays in 2011.

Financially, this would be a reasonable outcome for the Cubs. The $9 million for this year is a sunk cost; I assume payroll planning included paying that amount to someone, whether it be Bradley, another player, or eating Bradley's deal. Splitting the contract for 2011 makes the "effective" cost to the Cubs $6 million. However, as we have discussed here, Burrell is pretty useless to the Cubs -- he'd be a disaster in right field, and would almost certainly have to be flipped back to another AL team where he could DH. The DH market is pretty saturated, though. Sherman continues:

If the Cubs go through with this trade they are looking at two poor left fielders who both swing righty – Burrell and Alfonso Soriano – on the roster. So this is totally my speculation, but I wonder if the Cubs would then do a trade built around Burrell for Luis Castillo. It is hard to find a baseball official who actually thinks the Mets are going to land either Jason Bay or Matt Holliday in free agency, yet the Mets still want to add power to left field. Burrell is a woeful fielder, but he has some power plus removing Castillo would allow the Mets to hunt some additional power at second base.

First, I'm glad a sportswriter actually puts the words "this is totally my speculation" in print -- sometimes you'll read an article saying something like this and assume it comes from a team source. This time, it's simply a NY sportswriter making something up. I haven't been in favor of Castillo in the past and I'd rather not see this deal. Castillo's speed has been declining -- his 20 SB last year were his fewest in a full season (not counting 2005, when he missed 40 games due to injury), and though he does get on base at a reasonable clip (.387 OBA in 2009), he has almost no power -- his .346 SLG was the sixth-lowest of anyone who qualified for the 2009 batting title. He did rank at 1.6 WAR in 2009 according to Fangraphs.

Burrell or Castillo? Neither is a real good option, but I'd like to see the Bradley deal done before the winter meetings, so Jim Hendry could actually address the real needs of this team next week in Indianapolis.

Discuss.

An Interview With Jonah Keri

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:00:15 -0000

In continuing our series of interviews with people in and around the game of baseball we're joined by friend of the site and sports writing vagabond extraordinaire, Jonah Keri. We talk about Crawford, Bradley, instant replay, the financial state of the game, and two young LOOGYS on the rise. Enjoy.

EH: Lets kick this off with the $64,000 question. Crawford and the Rays, what happens?

JK: Depends on how the Rays fare in 2010, I imagine. If they fall out of the race early, I can't imagine Crawford's not traded. If they're in it, oddly, that might be the time to push for a possible contract extension.

Figure the order of most to least desirable outcomes goes like this:
Rays contend all year, re-sign Crawford at a discount.
Rays fall out of contention, trade him for a package like Kazmir's or better, with a mix of 0-to-3 guys and prospects.
Rays let Crawford walk, collect compensatory draft picks - DRaysBay has done a good job of noting that picks are no sure thing (i.e. you might not sign the guy) and that they're not cheap.

I doubt they trade him this off-season.

EH: Crawford is obviously the hot button issue of the winter, but asTommy brought up last week, Carlos Pena is another name who could be moved before the end of next season. How do you see the first base situation shaking out?

JK: Every Rays fan loves Los, between his great production and his winning personality. But it's hard not to love, say, Los fetching a B+ prospect and a power RP with 0-to-3 years of service time. If they can land a deal like that, then turn around and sign, say, Russell Branyan or Nick Johnson to a short-term deal for less money, that has to considered. If I had to guess, though, I'd say the Rays keep Crawford and Pena and Bartlett for now, even though an argument could be made to trade any one of them. You can't overstate how much that Kazmir trade helped the budget.

EH: Jayson Stark recently wrote an article proposing that MLB implement a minimum salary threshold where a team would tax 20% for every dollar they were under it after the first year. What are your thoughts on this idea? Could something like that realistically work?

JK: Words cannot express how much I dislike a salary floor idea. So what, the Rays would have to sign Russ Springer to a five-year extension now to get over the minimum threshold? If MLB is so concerned about owners who pocket revenue sharing proceeds instead of reinvesting in the team (cough Jeffrey Loria), they should do a better job of vetting ownership candidates. You think Mark Cuban would run a $25 million payroll every year if he took over a team, even a small-market team? No chance.

Beyond that, the smartest revenue sharing recipients would do well to funnel those funds into areas like scouting, drafting and player development, since the most valuable assets a major league can have are star players younger than free agency age (and ideally pre-arbitration). It's no surprise that the #1 player on Dave Cameron's MLB Trade Value scale was Evan Longoria, given his combination of talent and contract status.

EH: Stark goes on to say this would be the first step in "fixing a broken system." Yes, some teams spend far more/far less than others, but baseball has been thriving over the last 15 years and has had more different champions than any other major sport in that time period. Is the system really broken?

JK: The system is not broken. You've got five other divisions especially where anything can happen and any team can make the playoffs in a given year, with a reasonable amount of smarts, luck and talent.

If you want to argue that the system is broken, or that the deck is horribly stacked against anyone, you can make that case for the Jays, Orioles and Rays. Though bad geographical luck, those three teams face the toughest challenge of any teams in the major U.S. team sports, going up against the two wealthiest teams in the sport, especially now that the Yankees and Red Sox have the right people running those franchises too. I talk about this at length in the book. The Jays, for instance, might've won one or more division titles under J.P. Ricciardi if they played in a different division. But largely because they play in the AL East (while granting that Ricciardi made some ill-fated moves too, of course), the Jays now have a new GM, and they're trying to reinvent themselves for, what, the third time in a decade?

EH: There was more news this past week about the Rays and their stadium issues. The ABC Coalition came to the conclusion that "if the current stadium isn't replaced in a timely fashion, the Tampa Bay area could lose Major League Baseball." I'd say most of us here at DRB do not have a problem with Tropicana Field. You've been to the stadium and have gotten more familiar with the situation over the past year, where do you stand on this issue?

JK: Well first of all I grew up going to games at Olympic Stadium, so I'm comfortable with a dome environment. There needs to be some acknowledgment of weather here too: The Rays could certainly benefit from a new ballpark, but if they try to build an outdoor facility, that won't end well. Who wants to sit in a stadium with 95-degree weather and 95% humidity half the season - and rain the other half?

Beyond that, the whole stadium saga has been fascinating. I went way back in time in my research, to when the City of St. Petersburg was contemplating building a stadium on spec, in hopes of landing a baseball team. On spec! Can you imagine spending $500 million in today's economy to do that? (Actually they're thinking about spending something like $800 million to do this for an L.A. football team, but no one ever accused California of being a fiscally sound state.) Anyway, there's an amazing history here in terms of everything that happened just to get the Trop built - I highly recommend reading Bob Andelman's book on the subject, "Stadium For Rent". From the looks of things, I imagine the fight won't be any less dramatic this time. And yes, if they don't get a new park -- unless they start a dynasty where they reel off three or four World Series in a row or something -- they will almost certainly need a new park to survive in the Tampa Bay area.

EH: Your friend Rob Neyer has advocated giving the RF job to Desmond Jennings and platooning Matt Joyce at DH with Pat Burrell. I doubt the Rays will go that route- the team will likely supress Jennings' arb. clock as much as possible- but it's an interesting thought. Would that be a better option than leaving Burrell at DH and platooning Joyce with Gabe Kapler in RF?

JK: Well, you allude to Plan C in your next question, which is going out and acquiring Milton Bradley (or generally going a non-Burrell route). Burrell was hurt for most of last season, and I have a hard time believing the gap between the NL and AL is THAT vast that it turned a very good hitter into Rafael Santana. I agree that keeping Jennings' service time clock in check makes sense, and I like the idea of a Joyce/Kapler platoon in right to start the season.

EH: We've heard rumors this off-season about the Rays possibly dealing for Milton Bradley. His past has been well documented, but do you think Bradley would be a good fit for the Rays, on and off the field?

JK: Yes I do. I've been a Bradley fan since way back when he was a Vermont Expo. Even back then, he'd already earned a label as a great talent who was also fiery in his demeanor. Look, the guy's a fierce competitor, probably overcompetitive. But there's also no doubt in my mind that if he was pigmentally challenged, he wouldn't get nearly the bad rap that he does. Put him in the lineup, leave him be, and he'll be fine. If the Rays can resolve the contract situation, Bradley would be a great pickup. He's an absolute on-base machine without a major platoon issue, even in an off year.

EH: You're a big proponent of baseball adopting more uses of instant replay, but that doesn't seem likely with Selig still in office. Realistically, how long do you think it will be until baseball joins the 21st century and uses the advances in technology to improve the quality of the game?

JK: The next time I correctly predict what Bud Selig will do will be the first. I will say you have to look at this the way you would any piece of collective bargaining. I would guess that if Selig pushes for replay, that means he needs to make a concession to umpires. Same way you'd think that stricter drug testing would be a slam dunk, but it requires/required owners to make it palatable for players.

I will say this, though: It's just another in a long list of short-sighted (non-)decisions by the most overrated Commissioner of any major sport who's ever presided during my lifetime. When Bud Selig makes his Hall of Fame speech, I look forward to jeering him with chants of "1994", followed by me breaking down and weeping. Then throwing monkey feces at him.

EH: If you were in charge of the Rays for one day, what changes would you make, roster or otherwise?

JK: I don't presume to have a better grip on how to run the team than the current management team does. These guys are great at what they do. They usually get the big things right -- like the Garza trade -- and the little things right -- like trading for Ben Zobrist for pennies on the dollar. And that's the thing about good decision making. Do enough little things right, and just by sheer power of probabilities, one of them could turn into a big score, like finding an MVP candidate who plays 817 positions.

The only moves I can think of right now that would make sense within the framework of the team's revenue stream, talent base and likely payroll would be:

--Make a run at Billy Wagner.

--Make a run at Ryan Doumit.

--Consider the Roy Oswalt start-of-career path for guys like Jake McGee and maybe even Jeremy Hellickson. With guys like Crawford, Pena, Bartlett and Upton about to get expensive or hit free agency, there's a real window for 2010. I'd love to see some of the team's higher-level pitching prospects come in to help the bullpen before later shifting to the starting rotation. It's a great way to gain major league experience and help the team, while still knowing they'll be starters later on (certainly in Hellickson's case). Earl Weaver used to do this all the time. And really, did anyone ever have a better grip on how to run a roster than Earl Weaver?

EH: You're a busy man, what is it that you're currently working on?

JK: I'm hunkering down on the Rays book, plus raising two future millionaire LOOGYs.

As always, a big thanks to Jonah for joining us. You can find Jonah's work at a myriad of publications ranging from The New York Times to Penthouse. Check out his website here, and if you're not already (what's wrong with ya?) follow him on Twitter @jonahkeri

A Not-So Theoretical Theoretical

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 16:15:09 -0000

Given the current roster construction and ignoring salary, length of contract, etc., which player would you rather have in the Rays lineup:

Player A: 33-years-old, right-handed, last three years has averaged 145 games played and a .360 wOBA when weighed by plate appearances.

Player B: Turns 32 in April, switch-hitter, last three years has averaged 104 games played and weighted-by-plate appearance wOBA of .390.

The first question you (should) have is whether defensive value comes into play. In this scenario ti does not. The second should be "How many plate appearances does 145 and 104 games translate into?" Which I will provide in this space:

Player A three-year PA average: 573

Player B three-year PA average: 409

Now, which player creates more runs? The lesser performer with more consistent health or the wild card who offers more reward with his greater risk? Let's do some math.

Up first: Player A

We'll assume he posts a .360 wOBA through 573 plate appearances in a league with a .330 average. Let's figure out the amount of runs this produces.

.360-.330 = .030

.030/1.15 = .02609

.02609*573 = 14.9 runs

Okay, now Player B:

.390-.330 = .060

.060/1.15 = .05217

.05217*409 =21.3

14.9 - 21.3 = -6.4

If you assume these players play just like this - which isn't a given, but none of us know any better at this point - then Player B needs only 286 plate appearances to equal Player A's output through 573 plate appearances. How good of a bet is Player B to reach that total? Well, since 2002 he's reached the 300 plate appearances threshold in every season but one, which just so happened to be 2007. Seven out of eight seasons is nearly 90%. Let's say you can trade Player A for Player B straight-up ... well, why would another team do that? Because Player B has a reputation for wearing folks down through his attitude. How many runs is that worth?

There's no set answer for that. Everyone will have varying degrees as to whether chemistry affects individual performance and by what extent. The poll taken last night shows that most people (as of this writing) surmised the effect of a bad attitude on team performance was worth five or fewer runs during a full season. Look at the math above. Even if five runs is correct - and really that seems like too much in my eyes - Milton Bradley still looks like a better option than Pat Burrell when examined in a world without contracts or money.

Gabe Kapler is Off the Bases like the Spiderman Logo

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

by Jim Prisching - AP

I know the Spiderman joke doesn't entirely make sense other than my insistence on saying Kapler plays the field like a spider on acid ... but his arms here seem to support my theory on Kapler's arachnid nature.

View full size photo »

As hopefully everyone knows, WAR does not account for baserunning. Stolen bases and caught stealing are included, but stuff like advancing to third from first are not. I suppose you could call it a hidden value in player evaluation that even the best metric in the land is yet to fully encompass - for now at least - so rather than pretend it doesn't happen, or stone the people who point this out, let's look at the Rays baserunners to see who benefits and who does not.

Note that all of these statistics are way of Baseball-Reference.

First up, the number of times a batter is on first when a single is hit. I set the bar at 10 times because this seems to coincide nicely with 200 plate appearances received. Evan Longoria and B.J. Upton lead the pack and were amongst the team leaders in plate trips, so hey, it works out just fine. Amusingly, Upton lead the team with 37 occurrences; here are the rest of the qualifiers:

Player	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%
B.J. Upton	37	27	10	27.03
Evan Longoria	34	23	11	32.35
Jason Bartlett	28	18	10	35.71
*Carl Crawford	27	19	8	29.63
*Carlos Pena	23	12	10	43.48
#Ben Zobrist	22	14	8	36.36
Pat Burrell	21	17	4	19.05
#Dioner Navarro	19	13	6	31.58
*Akinori Iwamura	17	14	3	17.65
#Willy Aybar	15	11	4	26.67
*Gabe Gross	14	9	5	35.71
Gabe Kapler	10	9	1	10

What does this chart tell you? For one, the number of times a runner was on first when a single was hit (1stS), then how many times that runner reached second on the play (1stS2), and how many times they reached third (1stS3). What follows thereafter is a column with the header "Third%". Essentially: the amount of times the runner reached third. Now, keep in mind this is not a perfect metric by any means. Context is important and something that lacks with such a small sample size. There's a real and almost certain chance that the distribution of batted ball degree varies strongly. By that I mean some players - a la Carlos Pena - may have experienced more hard hit balls than others - vis-a-vis Gabe Kapler -- that or smiles are the fuel for legs.

Pena and Gabe Gross really leap off the page. I think if we did a community scouting report on the best and worst baserunners those two might be near the bottom based on speed alone. Meanwhile, Akinori Iwamura would likely be near the top with Kapler, and here he is advancing to third less than Pat Burrell. Upton and Crawford are around a third of the time, which is less than Longoria, Bartlett (I think most would have him top three), Ben Zobrist, Dioner Navarro, and pretty close to Willy Aybar. I can't think of a reason why, except that the ability to steal the extra bag leads Tom Foley to hold them on plays deemed too close. The factoid that dismisses that theory is that he literally does it for nobody else if such is the case, and that makes no sense.

Now let's shift gears a bit and look at the situations in which the runner was on first when a double was hit. From there we're seeing whether they scored or reached third - the minimum advancement:

Player	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%
B.J. Upton	6	3	3	50
Evan Longoria	14	11	3	21.43
Jason Bartlett	16	9	7	43.75
*Carl Crawford	10	6	4	40
*Carlos Pena	8	6	2	25
#Ben Zobrist	9	5	4	44.44
Pat Burrell	9	8	1	11.11
#Dioner Navarro	10	8	2	20
*Akinori Iwamura	3	1	2	66.67
#Willy Aybar	7	7	0	0
*Gabe Gross	4	2	2	50
Gabe Kapler	2	2	0	0

Now the sample size is really too small to say with any trace of confidence. Iwamura, Upton, and Bartlett lead the team, while Crawford and Zobrist aren't too shabby either. Guys like Navarro, Aybar, Pena, and Burrell are low on the totem pole as well. Nothing else stands out.

Our final situation involves the runner being on second when a single is hit and whether they scored or not:

Player	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
B.J. Upton	20	7	12	60
Evan Longoria	15	5	10	66.67
Jason Bartlett	22	12	10	45.45
*Carl Crawford	24	3	20	83.33
*Carlos Pena	15	6	9	60
#Ben Zobrist	18	6	11	61.11
Pat Burrell	9	6	3	33.33
#Dioner Navarro	9	2	7	77.77
*Akinori Iwamura	18	8	9	50
#Willy Aybar	2	1	1	50
*Gabe Gross	11	9	1	9.09
Gabe Kapler	9	4	3	33.33

So here's where the speed wins out. Crawford is fantastic. Longoria, Upton, and Zobrist are good. Navarro morphs into a rollie pollie when needed, and Gabe Gross is atrocious at it. I would've expected Bartlett to be higher, but them's the breaks.

What does all of this mean? Well, if you use Dan Fox's EQBR metric - by the way, he's now in the Pittsburgh front office - then unsurprisingly Crawford and Bartlett rate well, and .... Gabe Kapler is the worst baserunner on the team by nearly two full runs.

For all the (deserved) talk about Kapler's headiness and managerial experience, is he really the worst baserunner on the team? This seems counter intuitive on multiple levels. Kapler's body type resembles that of a safety more than a linebacker or defensive end. He appears to have quick feet. He doesn't fit the profile of a laggard given his defensive prowess either. So what's going on here?

Well, random fluctuation it appears. I took each of Kapler's individual seasons as a baserunner and ran the same percentages on them. The sexiness of having data dating back over a decade is appealing and great, but do you think 23-year-old Kapler's ability to go second to home tells us much about 33-year-old Kapler's ability? Maybe an extremely small amount, but what we really need to focus on is his last three seasons. Given that managerial break in 2007, we're looking at a period of four years and comparing them to 2009. The inherent small sample size issues get in the way again, but take a look at the contrast that exists:

Time	1stS	1stS2	1stS3	Third%	1stD	1stD3	1stDH	Score%	2ndS	2ndS3	2ndSH	Score%
3 Yr	24	19	4	17	9	5	4	44	18	7	10	56
2009	10	9	1	10	2	2	0	0	9	4	3	33

Kapler rated better in each of three categories in the previous seasons. Barring some inside information that I'm not privy to, I'll go ahead and chalk this up to mostly poor luck. If you really wanted to dive into this data pile you could find the league averages and do a Marcels type projection to get super accurate figures, but know this, the gain is minimal. The spread of baseruning talent simply isn't that thick. It results in about a win differential from the worst team to the best. That's nothing to sneeze at and I'm not saying stack your team with nine Pat Burrell types ... unless they get on base at extremely high clips, then yes, stack them up and watch the runs pile up.

Again, many thanks to B-Ref for the data.