SB Nation - Rob Johnson

Points Of Contention: Rob Johnson's Defense

Jeff — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 05:31:32 -0000

Writing is easier when you don't have to think up an intro.

In terms of things we know we can measure pretty well, Rob Johnson the defender doesn't stand out, at least not in a good way.

His error rate, for whatever that's worth, is about average. His four in 754.1 innings matches up well with the league-average rate of 6.1 per 1000.

His arm is decent. He's thrown out 20 of 71 would-be base-stealers - a rate of 28.2% - against a 27.6% league average.

He kind of sucks at blocking balls. His 2009 rate of passed balls was twice the league average, and the Mariners were a bottom-third team in wild pitches. In addition, I couldn't tell you how many times I saw Johnson flat-out drop a pitch that hit him in the glove.

These factors were covered in devil_fingers' evaluation of 2009 catcher defense, and in that study, it was determined that, based on his errors, arm, and ability to receive, Johnson was about two runs below average in the field. Now it's obviously important to remember that understanding performance in a single season isn't the same as understanding true talent, but given these numbers and all of our own observations over the course of the year, I don't see any particular reason to believe that Johnson is a superior defender when it comes to things we can directly measure.

And yet he's developed this whiz-kid reputation. Why? Because, out of guys who caught at least 50 games last season, Johnson posted the lowest CERA - ERA against as a catcher - in the league, at 3.23. This versus Kenji Johjima's CERA of 4.86. Pitchers weren't giving up as many runs throwing to Johnson as they were throwing to Kenji, and this - pretty much this alone - earned Johnson both a lot of playing time and a generally favorable standing among fans.

So given that he doesn't really do anything else well, either standing at the plate or crouching behind it, one's opinion of Rob Johnson comes down to one's opinion of this statistic. Those who like Johnson do so because they feel he helps keep the opponent off the board, while those who don't do so because they don't believe CERA reveals an ability on the catcher's part to control a game. This should be examined.

The absolute first thing we have to do with CERA is consider the pitchers. Catchers don't catch an equivalent distribution of arms, and sure enough, Johnson was catching the bulk of the team's better talent. Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, and Jarrod Washburn made up more than half of Johnson's PA's caught, while for Johjima, they made up just 9.4%. For this reason, we should expect their CERA's to be considerably different. The guy who catches the better pitchers is almost always going to post the more flattering rate of runs scored.

However, we wouldn't expect their CERA's to be that different, so clearly there was an additional performance effect. I looked at how the bullpen did throwing to each guy a few weeks ago and, sure enough, their walk and strikeout rates were a little better with Johnson than with Kenji. The picture's a little messier with starting pitchers since the distribution was so skewed, but the take-home message here is that the difference in CERA's was more than simply the difference in pitchers caught.

So with that in mind, the question becomes one about sustainability, about whether or not this sort of thing is reflective of an actual ability and is therefore repeatable on a year-to-year basis. This being beyond my capability, thank goodness for Keith Woolner. All year long, when people have talked about the significance of CERA, others have referred back to work done on the subject a decade ago, and that work was done by Woolner at Baseball Prospectus. Here's the original study, here's a follow-up, and here's a later study done after receiving some criticism from Bill James.

Read those articles. I know they're heavy on the math and somewhat lacking in floral prose, but if you're interested in this subject, then Woolner's work is required reading.

There's too much in there for me to summarize point-by-point. But in the end, Woolner didn't find strong evidence of an effect. He didn't find weak, potentially insignificant evidence of an effect. He found no evidence of an effect. At all. Even just looking at the extremes, the absolute best and worst catchers in Year X, they regressed all the way to the mean in Year X+1. Woolner's ultimate conclusion:

For now, at least, the hypothesis most consistent with the available facts appears to be that catchers do not have a significant effect on pitcher performance.

Based on CERA and its component metrics, Rob Johnson had a much better season of game-calling than Kenji Johjima. But given that this effect has never been shown to be repeatable, we probably shouldn't label it game-calling at all, as doing so implies an ability. We don't actually know if what we're trying to measure exists, and until we do, the most responsible approach is to side with the null hypothesis. There's no proof. There's no proof that Johnson's alleged greatest strength is even the least bit significant, or real.

What's funny is that, if we're just scrounging for as much evidence as we can find, there's a lot more evidence that Kenji was bad than there is that Johnson is good. Kenji was here for four years. In three of those years, his numbers were a lot worse than those of his backup(s), and in the fourth they were about equal. For Johnson, we have one year. 80 games. With that in mind, it makes more sense to suggest that Rob Johnson looked good simply because he wasn't Kenji Johjima. There's more reason to dock the latter than there is to credit the former.

But we needn't focus on that paragraph, because Woolner's work trumps it. Nobody's ever verified that game-calling is a skill, and because of that, if one wants to believe that Johnson calls a great game, then one needs to provide a lot of evidence. Tons of it. Years and years and years' worth. Rob Johnson has started 82 games behind the plate in his Major League career. It is impossible for one to conclude anything about game-calling over a span of 82 games.

Working in Rob Johnson's favor is that pitchers like him. The reason he caught so much of Felix, Bedard, and Washburn is because that's what Felix, Bedard and Washburn wanted. If the pitchers feel like Johnson calls a good game - if the pitchers feel comfortable throwing to him - then that has value. You want your pitchers to feel comfortable when they're going to work. But then Greg Maddux felt most comfortable throwing to pretty much anyone but Javy Lopez, yet of the 12 catchers who caught Maddux for more than 25 games, opponents put up the second-lowest OPS with Lopez behind the plate. Comfort is good, but it's not proof of ability, nor is it a trump card. If you have two guys who're pretty much equal, and a pitcher would rather throw to one of them, then that's fine. But if you have two guys, and one of them is measurably better than the other, then the responsibility falls on the pitcher to feel comfortable with the guy who maximizes the team's chances of winning.

Rob Johnson is a 27 year old Major League catcher who, in his rookie season, became a favorite of some high-level pitchers and coaches. In that regard, he's off to a hell of a start. But a lot of fans have gone so far as to suggest that he's a valuable player, the reasoning being that he keeps the other team off the board. We can't say that. We can't say that and have it mean anything, because that statement has yet to be confirmed. We will know that Rob Johnson is a valuable player if and only if he improves in the areas we know we can measure. And while PITCHfx may allow for someone down the road to show that game calling is a legitimate, repeatable ability, it would really put my mind at ease if Rob Johnson would think about maybe swinging a bat.

Kenji Johjima Doesn't Care About The Money*

Jeff — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 03:16:25 -0000

* much

From Kirby Arnold this afternoon, we get this bit about Johjima through Mark Lowe:

"I talked to [Kenji] last year about it during batting practice one day," Lowe said. "We were in the outfield at Shea. He told me, 'I don't care how much money I'm making. I don't play for the money. I want to play every day.' "

Two years ago, the Mariners played a three-game set in New York between June 23rd and June 25th. Prior to that series, the M's had played 75 games, of which Kenji started 56 - 54 of them behind the plate. At that point he was on a pace to start about 120 games and appear in 130, putting him in the company of other regulars like Jason Varitek and Dioner Navarro.

Since that series, the Mariners have played 249 games, of which Kenji started 115. Now, granted, he had some injury trouble in 2009 that kept him off the field and skews that number, but it was evident to anyone paying attention that his role was being reduced, due to both his ineffectiveness and the emergence of whatever skill it is that Rob Johnson's supposed to provide. And for a guy like Kenji, who's barely content starting five or six times a week, you have to imagine that that sort of cutback didn't sit very well. Well, I mean, now it's obvious that it didn't sit very well, so we don't have to imagine anything. But still, it's somewhat remarkable to note how calm and composed and professional Kenji remained over the past year and a half despite having his playing time diminished and his competence as a receiver frequently called into question. Deep inside, he must've been pissed. Remember that, according to Alan Nero, Kenji thinks he's still on top of his game.

Faced with the situation that Kenji faced at the end of the year, a lot of people would've stuck around for the money. Some of them would've kept quiet. Others would've bitched. Few of them would've bailed, and though it's not like many players have the sort of guaranteed playing time overseas that Kenji does, his motives here seem unusually genuine - he just wants to play, and the Mariners didn't have room. So he left a lot of money on the table in the name of greater personal satisfaction. I can understand being cynical and insisting that there must've been some sort of buyout, but me, I don't see it. This particular situation strikes me as being exceptional. Kenji's not poor. He knows there'll be money waiting for him in Japan. And, with the money, there'll be a great deal more playing time. We all make some sacrifices in order to be a little happier. I think Kenji just made a bigger one than most of us get the opportunity to make.

Realistically, this is probably about as pleasant a break-up as a sports fan gets to face. Kenji didn't overstay his welcome. He didn't block any youth, he didn't handcuff the front office or coaching staff, and he never caused a ruckus. By the same token, he was past his peak, his contract didn't project well at all, and the organization's top catching prospect is knocking on the door. So he left, and to top it all off, he didn't leave for another team or another rival; he left to go home, overseas, because he just wants to play, and play close to his family. There's no bitterness, and there's no sadness - there's just appreciation, for what Kenji's done, what Kenji did, and who Kenji is.

That's neat. People don't often get to through through an exit like this one. I wish Kenji all the best going forward, and unlike in previous cases with departing Mariners, this time I mean it unconditionally. Kenji was a good player and an excellent professional with Seattle, and to make the sacrifice he made for the reasons we've seen stated - he deserves for this to be the best decision he's ever made.

Kenji Johjima opts out of deal, will return to Japan

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 18:57:22 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

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Mariners catcher Kenji Johjima announced today that he will opt out of the final two years of his contract and resume his career in Japan. The 33-year old catcher leaves after four seasons with the Mariners, a career .268 average, and 48 home runs.

"After lots of very deep thought and deliberation, I have decided to return home to resume my career in Japan," Johjima. "I have had a wonderful experience competing at the Major League level. The last four years have been extraordinary, with great teammates and great coaches.

After two solid seasons, offensively, his numbers dropped dramatically and his movement behind the plate was limited. The Mariners can now use Rob Johnson or Adam Moore behind the plate, but his departure frees up 16 million dollars that would have gone to him over the next two seasons.

Johjima will return to Japan where he is regarded as more than a star, owning a career .298 average with 187 home runs. His best year came in 2004 when he hit .338 with 36 home runs in 116 games.

If the Mariners decide to add another backstop, they could look into Rod Barajas or former Mariner Jason Varitek.

2009 Catcher Defense: Filling in the Holes (yet again)

devil_fingers — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:17:43 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

That Minnesota pretty boy might be in the playoffs, but he's go nuthin on One Man, Five Tools.

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Even if you aren't a FanGraphs junkie like myself and so many others, if you spend any time there looking at the WAR rankings in order to, say, evaluate who should be the 2009 MVP candidates, you've undoubtedly noticed (due to Joe Mauer's incredible season) that currently, they do not have a system in place to evaluate catcher fielding. Hey, no one's perfect, and knowing Mr. Appleman and his crew, they're probably waiting until they get a system they're happy with before they implement something.

I don't make any great claim to originality here, as you will see if you read on, but for those of you who want a rough idea of how different catchers "measure up" behind the plate for your MVP arguments or to settle the eternal "I wonder just how bad a guy can be at blocking pitches," question, here is a rough attempt to evaluate every catcher's defensive 2009.

Choosing a Methodology (With Qualifications)

Before I go any further, I should make clear that for the purposes of this post that I assume that it is well-established that the differences between catchers with regard to gamecalling (as expressed in, e.g., "catcher's ERA") are negligible, and thus such issues will not be discussed in this post. When I discuss catcher defense, like most others, I will be discussing preventing stolen bases, blocking pitches, etc.

One of the difficulties with evaluating catcher defense with regard to even these issues is that, much more than with other fielding positions, the catcher's performance is dependent on another player -- namely, the pitcher. No matter now strong or weak the catcher's arm is, he can't escape the reality that he depends on the pitcher's skill with regard to holding runners, quickness to the plate, etc. While the catcher's skill with regard to blocking pitches that are off the mark is clearly important, catching Tim Wakefield poses a unique challenge (just ask Josh Bard). And so on.

For these reasons, probably the best way of measuring catcher defense is Tom Tango's WOWY (With or Without You) method of defensive evaluation as detailed the 2008 Hardball Times Annual. You can read about the details in the links provided. Versions of WOWY for catchers have also been done by Brian Cartwright and Dan Turkenkopf. I would do it that way if I could. The main issue is that 1) it's pretty complicated, and beyond my present capabilities, and 2) it requires something like Retrosheet, which isn't available until after the World Series is over, so even if I could do it, I couldn't get the numbers during the season of even now...

In lieu of that, I'm going to be doing something much simpler, which, while not quite as good, is, I think, pretty decent. Just keep in mind the qualifications about not adjusting for particular pitchers made above.

The Method Used Here

For non-WOWY catcher defense, the basic idea is to 1) choose what events you're going to deal with, 2) determine each catchers performance with respect to league average, and 3) decide the run value of each event. Like I said, this post isn't that original: very similar methods are used/suggested by Rally and chuckb. I have most closely modeled my "catcher defense metric" on the method outlined by the Amazing Justin Inaz (now a regular at Beyond the Box Score). His weights for each event seem about right to me, and the general principles are sound. One modification I've made (I'll note the other as I go along) is in the denominator of some stats. when Justin did his version, he was using THT's catcher defense stats, which only recorded catcher innings. Since then, the new Baseball Reference has come out with more detailed individual catcher defense stats, including plate appearances. While the difference isn't huge, I feel that it's more accurate to use plate appearances (batters faced) as the denominator for things like pitch blocking and errors, since while every inning (other than some ninth [or later] innings) has 3 outs, the catcher has to be out there whether there are 3 or 10 batters during those three outs. Otherwise, I'm pretty close to Justin's method, and you can read there for more details.

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing: First, we figure out the league rate for caught stealing. One cool thing about the new Baseball Reference is that it separates out the catcher caught stealings from the pitcher pickoffs, so we can exclude the pickoffs (not under the catcher's control) from the equation. So we total the CSctch +SB to get total stolen base attempts (SBA) and then to total CSctch/total SBA for the lgCS rate. We use the weight of .63 runs for each caught stealing, which represents the average linear weight of the caught stealing (.44 runs) plus the weight of the stolen base not achieved (.19 runs). The formula for runs above/below average for each catcher is thus (CS - (lgCSrate) * SBA) * 0.63.

Wild pitches/passed balls: The league rate is (WPlg + PBlg)/lgPA. The linear weight for each passed ball/wild pitch is 0.28 runs, which we make negative since the more WP/PBs a catcher has, the worse his defense is. The formula for each player is ((WP + PB) - (lgWPPBrate * PA)) * -0.28.

Errors: Justin accounts for two kinds of errors -- throwing errors and fielding errors. Baseball Reference also includes catching errors (on throws). I've assimilated catching errors to fielding errors. There are separate linear weights for throwing errors (-0.48) and fielding errors (-0.75). The method is the same as above. Get the league rate, then see how far over/under the player is. For throwing errors: (TE - (lgTErate * PA)) * -0.48. Fielding errors: (FE - (lgFErate * PA)) * -0.75.

Then you just add them all up to get the total runs above/below average. It's not perfect, and hopefully, there will be some improved options soon, but the results do seem to reflect reality. I thought about coming up with a "rate" version like UZR/150, but that isn't as simple as prorating for innings caught/PA -- one needs to normalize each sort of event separately, the chart is confusing enough as it is. For now, this is just a value measurement of what each player did this season. But before the big chart, let's take a look at some standout performances. I've rounded to one decimal place to tone down the illusion of great precision.

Standouts and "Standouts"

Caught Stealing: Gerald Laird of the Tigers dominates here at + 11 runs. The next closest player was Johjima at +6.5 runs, then Koyie Hill at +5.4. Now, Laird had a lot more time behind the plate to accomplish that, but one wonders why teams kept trying to run on him. At the bottom of the rankings for CS runs are fan favorite A.J. Pierzynski at -4.5 runs, Yorvit Torrealbea at -5.1 runs, and blowing away the field is defensive legend and Boston Red Sox stalwart Jason Varitek, at -10.7 runs.

Pitch blocking: As for the actual "catching" part of catching, the best in baseball this season was the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz, at +5.6 runs. Jason Varitek gains some of his cred back here at +5.1 runs (I wonder what it would be if he had to catch Wakefield). The Man, the Myth, the Legend, Matt Wieters may not have quite cemented his Hall of Fame credentials, but he can block a pitch decently at +3.9 runs. The players are grouped by their performance for separate teams, so I just noticed that one of my favorites, Gregg Zaun, was +2.9 for the Orioles, and +1.4 for the Rays, which puts him at +4.3, or the real number 3. Maybe Baltimore let him go to soon -- he definite brings his Z-Game when he's blocking pitches. At the bottom of the rankings, Jorge Posada, Josh Bard, and and Rob Johnson (why did he get so much playing time?) are all tied at -3.8, Russell Martin (?!) is at -5.1 (although he saw more PA than just about any other catcher on the list). And bringing up the rear... this is going to be a shock, prepare yourself... Miguel Olivo, at -7.8. Think about that -- it's only -0.28 runs per WP/PB. Sure, he's "only" -2.7 runs worse thatn Martin, but Martin saw almost 1400 more PA than Olivo this season. This shows we're on the right track, as Brian Cartwright's WOWY study done previous to this season showed Olivo to be historically terrible at blocking the plate. Another great job of scouting by Dayton Moore and the Process Servers.

Throwing errors: Given that there's so little variance with this stat, there's probably less of a repeatable "skill" when it comes to this stuff. In other words, if we were doing a projection, there would be much more regression for TE and FE runs than others. Still, we're measuring value here, so it goes on the record. Gerald Laird leads the pack again at +1.5 runs, followed closely by Yorvit Torrealbea at +1.3 the Kurt Suzuki and Henry Blanco at +1.2 each. At the bottom, we have Rod Barajas (otherwise a good defensive catcher) at -1.6, Miguel Montero at -1.7, and sadly, my boy John Buck at -3.0. He had some really, really horrible games at the beginning of the season. At least he can move two inches to his right or left.

Fielding errors: Jason Kendall justifies his major league status with a +1.0 here, as does Russell Martin. Rod Barajas shows he's Joe Mauer's equal, as they both have +0.8. Mike Napoli is -1.6, the traitorous Paul Bako is at -2.0, and Brian McCann, who's decent at everything else, has an anomalous -3.6.

The Best and The Worst, and Others of Note: One Man, Five Tools, Indeed: Gerald Laird blows away the field at +13.3 runs. The Tigers made a conscious effort to improve their defense in the offseason, and whatever else happened, with Laird they certainly succeeded. At 0.9 WAR player without defense, with it he's about 2.2. Kenji Johjima might be overpaid, but at +8.8 runs defensively, he seems a bit less ridiculous. Dave Ross and Ryan Hanigan come in at +7.0 runs. Yadier Molina was very good, if not quite as godlike as some would think, but +6.6 runs is nothing to sneeze at, and makes him about a 4 WAR player this season. Joe Mauer's +4.3 is good, but he's not the best in baseball or the league, and that certainly doesn't make him a better MVP candidate than Zack Greinke. Matt Wieters is +2.5, so he'll probably stick at catcher, at least for a while.

Victor Martinez isn't as bad as some would say, being only -2.2 betweeen Boston and Cleveland. Jeff Mathis is a "great" defensive backup at -2.0. Or how about Jose Molina at -1.1 backing up Jorge Posada at -5.9? Giants cleanup hitter Bengie Molina is at -3.4

As for the bottom ranks... Josh Bard is at -7.3, the human swing machine, Miguel Olivo, is at -8.8, and the Living Stereotype, Mike Napoli, is at -9.7. No wonder the Angels think Mathis is a good defender.

The Big Chart

That's it. Keep in mind (along with the limitations mentioned above) that current season performance is not the same thing as true talent. I hope you will find this handy when trying to get various catchers' "real" WAR, and let others know about it. Let the arguments begin!

Rank	Player	Tm	PA	CSRuns	WP/PBRns	TERns	FERns	TotalRuns
1	Gerald Laird	DET	4842	11.0	0.6	1.5	0.2	13.3
2	Kenji Johjima	SEA	2597	6.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	8.8
3	Dave Ross	ATL	1517	4.8	1.6	0.3	0.3	7.0
4	Ryan Hanigan	CIN	2913	4.7	0.7	1.0	0.5	7.0
5	Yadier Molina	STL	5045	3.2	2.6	0.7	0.2	6.6
6	Koyie Hill	CHC	2755	5.4	0.2	0.0	0.5	6.1
7	Henry Blanco	SDP	2278	2.9	1.2	1.2	0.4	5.7
8	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	3887	-1.5	5.6	0.6	0.7	5.4
9	Raul Chavez	TOR	1818	3.6	0.5	0.0	0.3	4.4
10	Joe Mauer	MIN	4153	0.5	2.4	0.7	0.8	4.3
11	Rod Barajas	TOR	4298	2.6	2.5	-1.6	0.8	4.2
12	Brian Schneider	NYM	1976	1.6	1.2	1.0	-0.4	3.5
13	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	2069	0.6	1.7	0.6	0.4	3.3
14	Francisco Cervelli	NYY	1024	2.0	0.8	0.0	0.2	3.1
15	Lou Marson	CLE	572	1.6	1.0	-0.2	0.1	2.5
16	Eliezer Alfonzo	SDP	1128	2.2	0.3	0.6	-0.5	2.5
17	Matt Wieters	BAL	3384	-1.1	3.9	-0.2	-0.1	2.5
18	Ronny Paulino	FLA	2609	2.1	-0.4	0.4	0.5	2.5
19	Landon Powell	OAK	1205	2.8	0.5	-0.3	-0.5	2.4
20	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	2180	3.1	0.9	-1.3	-0.3	2.4
21	Omir Santos	NYM	3092	-0.7	2.8	1.1	-0.9	2.4
22	Ivan Rodriguez	HOU	3327	1.4	0.4	-0.2	0.6	2.2
23	Chris Iannetta	COL	3362	0.1	1.9	-0.7	0.6	2.0
24	Gregg Zaun	BAL	1974	0.2	2.9	-0.9	-0.4	1.8
25	Humberto Quintero	HOU	1893	2.4	0.4	-1.4	0.4	1.7
26	Corky Miller	CIN	702	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	1.7
27	Ramon Castro	NYM	822	1.8	0.6	0.4	-1.3	1.4
28	Mike Rivera	MIL	1227	-0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	1.3
29	Lou Marson	PHI	245	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	1.2
30	Jason LaRue	STL	1139	0.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	1.2
31	Craig Tatum	CIN	749	0.5	0.6	-0.1	0.1	1.1
32	Chris Coste	PHI	925	-1.0	1.4	0.5	0.2	1.0
33	Dusty Ryan	DET	337	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	1.0
34	Kurt Suzuki	OAK	5222	-3.4	3.6	1.2	-0.5	0.9
35	Michel Hernandez	TBR	1140	0.1	1.1	0.1	-0.5	0.8
36	Geovany Soto	CHC	3607	2.2	-1.1	0.4	-0.8	0.7
37	Clint Sammons	ATL	135	1.0	-0.5	0.1	0.0	0.6
38	Jamie Burke	WSN	155	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
39	Brad Ausmus	LAD	1086	-0.1	-0.1	0.6	0.2	0.6
40	Ivan Rodriguez	TEX	961	1.4	0.1	-0.5	-0.6	0.5
41	Matt Pagnozzi	STL	40	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
42	Chris Gimenez	CLE	245	-0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.5
43	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	113	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.4
44	Buster Posey	SFG	179	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
45	Dioner Navarro	TBR	4097	0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.0	0.4
46	J.R. Towles	HOU	538	-1.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.3
47	Wyatt Toregas	CLE	710	-0.5	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.3
48	Alex Avila	DET	709	0.4	-0.6	0.4	0.1	0.3
49	Steve Holm	SFG	101	0.5	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
50	Edwin Bellorin	COL	69	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
51	Dusty Brown	BOS	49	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
52	Jose Lobaton	SDP	205	0.2	0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.1
53	Jason Jaramillo	PIT	2347	0.2	0.2	-0.7	0.4	0.1
54	Jake Fox	CHC	30	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
55	Carlos Corporan	MIL	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
56	Ryan Budde	LAA	38	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
57	A.J. Ellis	LAD	119	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
58	Guillermo Rodriguez	BAL	72	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
59	Bobby Wilson	LAA	98	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.1
60	David Freese	STL	10	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1
61	Kevin Cash	NYY	297	-0.3	0.0	0.2	0.1	-0.1
62	Chris Coste	HOU	628	-1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	-0.2
63	Adam Moore	SEA	241	-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0.0	-0.2
64	Corky Miller	CHW	383	-0.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	-0.2
65	Gregg Zaun	TBR	928	-1.5	1.4	0.5	-0.6	-0.2
66	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	3169	-0.5	1.6	-1.3	-0.2	-0.3
67	Wil Nieves	WSN	2538	1.4	-0.4	-1.1	-0.3	-0.3
68	John Hester	ARI	255	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.3
69	Paul Hoover	PHI	55	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.4
70	Guillermo Quiroz	SEA	161	-0.1	-0.4	0.1	0.0	-0.4
71	Dane Sardinha	DET	404	-0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.1	-0.5
72	Shawn Riggans	TBR	156	-0.3	0.1	-0.4	0.0	-0.5
73	Matt Treanor	DET	157	-0.6	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.6
74	Kevin Richardson	TEX	70	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.0	-0.6
75	Victor Martinez	CLE	1991	-2.7	0.7	1.0	0.4	-0.6
76	Josh Thole	NYM	551	-0.1	-0.5	-0.2	0.1	-0.6
77	Tyler Flowers	CHW	123	-0.3	-0.5	0.1	0.0	-0.7
78	Michael Barrett	TOR	174	-0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.0	-0.8
79	Luke Carlin	ARI	176	-0.9	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.8
80	Kyle Phillips	TOR	186	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	-0.9
81	Jesus Flores	WSN	980	0.4	-1.2	0.5	-0.6	-0.9
82	Jose Molina	NYY	1533	-0.9	-0.9	0.3	0.3	-1.1
83	Jamie Burke	SEA	424	0.7	-0.8	0.2	-1.4	-1.3
84	Kelly Shoppach	CLE	3042	-0.7	-0.9	-0.4	0.6	-1.5
85	Victor Martinez	BOS	1173	-1.5	1.0	-1.3	0.2	-1.6
86	Ramon Castro	CHW	975	-1.8	1.0	-0.9	0.2	-1.6
87	Rob Johnson	SEA	2927	2.4	-3.8	0.5	-1.0	-1.8
88	Ryan Doumit	PIT	2754	-1.0	0.5	-0.5	-1.0	-2.0
89	Chad Moeller	BAL	1116	-3.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	-2.1
90	Jeff Mathis	LAA	2902	0.8	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-2.1
91	Paul Phillips	COL	502	-1.8	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	-2.3
92	Mike Redmond	MIN	1513	-4.1	0.5	0.8	0.3	-2.5
93	Robinzon Diaz	PIT	1268	-1.0	-1.6	-0.3	0.2	-2.6
94	Yorvit Torrealba	COL	2438	-5.1	0.5	1.3	0.5	-2.9
95	Brayan Pena	KCR	1012	-0.5	-3.1	0.5	0.2	-2.9
96	Brian McCann	ATL	4763	-0.7	1.8	-0.4	-3.6	-3.0
97	Chris Snyder	ARI	1962	-1.3	-3.0	1.0	0.4	-3.0
98	Eli Whiteside	SFG	1348	1.0	-2.2	-0.7	-1.2	-3.2
99	John Baker	FLA	3919	-2.6	-0.5	-0.9	0.7	-3.2
100	Paul Bako	PHI	1328	-0.7	-0.3	-0.3	-2.0	-3.3
101	Russell Martin	LAD	5205	1.5	-5.1	-0.7	1.0	-3.3
102	Bengie Molina	SFG	4582	-1.0	-2.6	0.9	-0.6	-3.4
103	Jason Varitek	BOS	4133	-10.7	5.1	0.7	0.8	-4.1
104	George Kottaras	BOS	1166	-1.8	-3.0	0.1	0.2	-4.4
105	Jason Kendall	MIL	5296	-2.9	-1.5	-1.1	1.0	-4.5
106	John Buck	KCR	1693	-2.0	-0.1	-3.0	0.3	-4.8
107	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	4927	-4.5	-0.8	1.1	-0.6	-4.8
108	Jose Morales	MIN	812	-2.1	-1.7	-0.1	-1.3	-5.2
109	Jorge Posada	NYY	3653	-0.8	-3.8	-0.5	-0.8	-5.9
110	Miguel Montero	ARI	4094	-1.4	-3.4	-1.7	0.0	-6.5
111	Nick Hundley	SDP	2877	-3.7	-2.0	-0.9	-0.2	-6.8
112	Josh Bard	WSN	2902	-2.8	-3.8	-0.4	-0.2	-7.3
113	Miguel Olivo	KCR	3821	0.7	-7.8	-0.9	-0.8	-8.8
114	Mike Napoli	LAA	3468	-4.3	-3.1	-0.6	-1.6	-9.7

85-77, Closing Game Thoughts

Jeff — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 01:11:27 -0000

More photos » by John Froschauer - AP

TELL US

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I'm going to be kind of quick about this, because, I gotta be honest, the high of pumping out your final content of the season is unlike any other and I'm eager to drink.

Maybe it's just because none of my teams have ever won a championship, but I honestly can't remember ever enjoying a season's end as much as I did today. I'm not going to try to summarize the gathering on the field after the game. There's no point. I couldn't. There's no way I could do justice to an impromptu celebration that actually made me tear up. You'll just have to see it for yourself, if you haven't already. But...man, for a team that didn't win anything, this one was something special. A year ago, Carlos Silva was the prime suspect when it came to an anonymous Mariner player threatening Ichiro. Today he carried him off the field on his shoulders. Mike Blowers couldn't stop talking about how he'd never seen a whole team mill around like this before. These Mariners were as close as any team that's ever shared a clubhouse, and knowing that they were all enjoying themselves was a big part of what made this season so fun.

Thanks, guys. You've been a treat.

Six strikeouts, one walk, a bunch of groundballs, a bunch of strikes, a bunch of swinging strikes, and a win. Felix Hernandez showed no ill effects from his 121-pitch outing last Tuesday and looked as kingly as ever from the start to the finish. He may not win the Cy Young, but this was a Cy Young-caliber season, and when he told Angie Mentink through laughter and tears after the game that he'd like to spend his whole career in Seattle...Z should just call him up right now while he's still feeling emotional. Also, when the whole team is out there walking a victory lap and thanking the fans, maybe you should wait a few minutes before pulling one of the players away from the rest for a pointless one-minute interview.

You always hear about the fan who caught a home run, or the fan who caught a foul ball. You never hear about the fan who caught a ground-rule double. I wonder what happens to that fan.

I know a lot of Mariners fans. Not one of them has ever gone to a baseball game with a rally fries sign. Which makes me wonder if there have ever been repeats. Has anyone won rally fries twice? Griffey tried his hand today but didn't luck out, which is just as well, because one more handful of fries and I don't know if Tui and Langerhans would've been able to lift him.

In the top of the first, it looked like Bill Hall dove for David Murphy's double and missed by 15 feet, but replays showed that he just fell down. Bill Hall, everybody. I urge you not to get too down on him, because he's very clearly been injured, but by the same token, Christ, Wak, why did you have to subject us to so much of this guy? What was there to be gained?

Adrian Beltre led off the game with a sparkling diving stop on a grounder to his left, and later pulled off another one of those spectacular off-balance barehands on a swinging bunt the way only he can do. Though Beltre went hitless and struck out in his final at bat, this final homestand saw him display every part of his skillset, and my only complaint about this whole afternoon is that the crowd didn't give him any recognition for everything he's done. I'm sorry, Adrian. I am deeply sorry that so many people just don't get you. I hope you end up somewhere that you can feel loved, because few people deserve it more than you.

Attendance for the home opener: 48,514. Attendance today: 32,260. That's up about 5,000 from a year ago and 2,000 from 2007, but, really? Either a lot of Seattle felt they'd shown Griffey enough love, or a lot of Seattle doesn't believe that he's going to retire.

It's fun to end the season with a win. We've done it four years in a row. Three of those years we've directly prevented the Rangers from the same satisfaction. Suck it, Texas.

Mike Blowers, paraphrased, on Hank Blalock: You have to be careful, because he can still turn on a good fastball. You hear this about a lot of guys, but I don't get what it means. Of course Blalock can still turn on a good fastball. If you can't hit a fastball, you can't be a position player in the Major Leagues. That's like saying, you have to keep on your toes around this hockey player, because he knows how to skate. If Hank Blalock couldn't hit a fastball, he'd be listening to announcers talk about guys who can hit a fastball on TV.

The second-to-last pitch of the game was a high fastball. Rob Johnson dropped it.

83-77, Game Notes

Jeff — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 07:37:14 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Seattle Mariners pitcher Mark Lowe swings a carefully switched sock full of marbles as he prepares to throw a pitch high and inside in the eighth inning of a MLB baseball game against the Texas Rangers, Friday, Oct. 2, 2009, at Safeco Field in Seattle.

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On the plus side, a tied-for-2nd-place-in-the-division banner would've just looked really pathetic.

It's a shame Ian Snell couldn't have swapped his last start and this one, because after the excitement that he generated with his performance against Toronto, tonight was a bit of a letdown. He didn't have good command of anything and admitted as much, and though I was keeping an eye on his front foot and thought it looked okay, it (A) both came and went, and (B) clearly isn't going to be some magic insta-fix. It's just one of several adjustments the coaching staff would like to see him make.

The good news is that the stuff was mostly there. Snell topped out at 95mph and threw a ton of sliders or slurves or whatever you want to call that breaking ball of his, and his nine missed bats gave him his second-best swinging strike rate as a Mariner. But the downside - and this has been Snell's problem all year long - is that it's just so incredibly difficult to succeed when you're only throwing 60% of your pitches for strikes. Good Snell - 2007 Snell - was up at 65%. So far this year he's at 59%, and tonight he just couldn't find the zone for the life of him for the first three innings or so. He managed to settle down after that and get through six (quality start!), but three innings of bad and three innings of good is no way to survive as a starting pitcher. Snell needs to be able to find a consistent rhythm, and that he's been just about incapable to date is the reason why he's a work in progress.

What I've found interesting is how often we've seen Snell with a smile on his face. For a guy who as a Pirate was so utterly miserable, it's been nice to see him come over and enjoy himself again. It's a completely new environment, one that Snell says he likes, so there's reason to hope that he can be repaired. It's just going to have to wait until next season. Which I suspected all along, but secretly and irrationally wanted to see a little sooner.

When it's a cold day and he gets all bundled up in the broadcast booth, Dave Niehaus looks like a cuddly little teddy bear. I know we use this word a lot around here, but a cold, neckless, and red-cheeked Niehaus is completely adorable.

So the team MVP award as voted on by the local chapter of the BBWAA was bestowed upon Ichiro before the game, with Franklin Gutierrez finishing as the runner-up. Personally I think Gutierrez's performance in the clutch (.965 OPS in high-leverage situations) should've put him over the top, but Ichiro's awesome and in no way an unworthy pick, and what's really amazing is that Gutierrez got consideration from a bunch of writers in the first place.

Do we care about these awards? Do we care about any awards? I feel like having really good value-based statistics updated on a daily basis kind of diminishes the significance. Back in the day awards were probably both somewhat surprising and considered a high honor, but now it seems the only thing they're good for is getting fans really mad at each other. I'm sure the players care a little, but as an outsider, man, whatever.

Jose Lopez won the team's Heart And Hustle award, which is one of those things I didn't think I'd ever write three years ago, or three hours ago.

Speaking of Jose Lopez, the fourth inning saw him come up with a man on second and hit a single without advancing the baserunner. Which I'm just going to go ahead and chalk up as his 25th walk.

Also in the fourth, Sims and Blowers were talking about how at one point a while ago the Rangers got really close to firing Ron Washington, but then the team improved and his became a popular name in conversations about the AL's best managers. "Sometimes the moves you don't make turn out to be better," said Blowers. Right on. Sometimes it's the moves you make. Sometimes it's the moves you don't make. Chances are, if something works out for you, it's because of something you did, or something you didn't do.

Apparently Mariner catchers are allowed to hang on to throws home after all.

A few days ago I got a text from Red saying that tonight would be Adrian Beltre Appreciation Night. Beltre did him proud by going 2-4 with a double, a steal, a run, and an RBI. It's been a rough year for both Adrian and Red, but these last two nights have been special, and I'm wondering if Beltre's planning one final surprise for his biggest fan before the end of the year. Or the other way around. Either one, really.

That steal, by the way, was so totally Adrian Beltre in a nutshell. Standing on second with two out, attempting a steal would've been stupid and pointlessly risky, but Beltre tried it anyway, looking dead to rights but then by some miraculous feat of reflexes and quick thinking pulling his hand back at just the right moment and avoiding the tag. It was one of the greatest slides I've ever seen, but it was also a slide on a play that shouldn't have happened in the first place. Sunday may turn out to be Beltre's final game in a Mariner uniform, but he will long be remembered for succeeding despite looking like a retard. I'm gonna miss you, you crazy son of a bitch.

62-58, Game Notes

Jeff — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 05:12:04 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

If I keep talking about how Carlos Silva is on the way I'm going to start feeling like Gabbo.

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Question: Does the best team always win the World Series?

Hypothesis: The best team doesn't always win the World Series

Experiment: Ian Snell, Mariners vs. Justin Verlander, Tigers

Result: Ian Snell, Mariners > Justin Verlander, Tigers

Conclusion: The best team doesn't always win the World Series

Justin Verlander has a 28-strikeout lead over second place in the American League. Last year Carlos Silva didn't record his 28th strikeout until June 4th.

I'm thrilled that Ian Snell was able to pick up his first win as a Mariner. I really am. The guy has been through a lot this year, and earning his first win with Seattle should only be of help in his attempt to put everything in Pittsburgh behind him. With that said, just as I didn't think he was as bad as his eight runs against New York last week, he definitely wasn't as good as his one run tonight against Detroit. He only threw 54 strikes out of 98 pitches, he walked more than he struck out, he missed just six bats, and he fell behind 16 of the 23 batters he faced - including 12 of the last 14. The strike zone was dancing around on him all night, and it cut into his efficiency.

Here's the good news, though. Yeah, Snell missed a lot, but do you know where he missed?

via brooksbaseball.net
As a comparison, here's how Justin Verlander pitched. Now look back at Snell. Of his 44 balls, only seven - seven! - wound up more than 22 inches off the ground. When he missed, he missed low. It wasn't just his misses, either; most of his strikes were low, too. Snell was just pounding the lower half of the zone for the duration of his outing, and though he wasn't always able to hit his spot, he stayed around the right area, which prevented the Tigers from doing too much damage. That strikes me as a good way to help a struggling pitcher build some much-needed confidence.

If you're curious, here's what Snell looked like in his first start as a Mariner, his second, and his third. I think it's safe to say they had a different game plan today than in the past, and Johjima says as much on Drayer's blog.

The fastball [Johjima] said was good if it was kept down. To help keep Snell's focus down on all of his pitches Joh dropped to a one knee on the ground stance which he admitted made it a bit more difficult for him to block pitches. Despite this he felt it was important to keep his focus there so dropped to one knee as much as situations would allow.
Another part of the new game plan, from both Drayer's blog and the PITCHfx data, was getting Snell to throw more offspeed stuff. His final mix was 50 fastballs, 30 sliders, and 18 changeups, so they definitely executed that aspect of it as well, albeit with mixed results as far as throwing strikes is concerned. Still, it's good to see them trying new things, and it's good to see Snell have the sort of game he can feel good about. If the turnaround happens, it's not going to happen all at once. There are a lot of different things that Snell's working on right now, and we can't expect him to make all the adjustments in a day. Personally, I think that, if Snell's able to rediscover his old identity, we won't really see it until next spring. But having games like this along the way can only help. Posting good results will help Snell buy into the system, and I trust the system.

Another thing Snell's working on (he must feel like a college student going from one class to another), according to Drayer's Twitter, is:

Minor adjustment by Adair, wanted to get his front foot pointing towards the plate rather than to the 3rd base dugout
Here's what they want him to look like.

Here's what he looked like in his first start as a Mariner.

Here's what he looked like tonight.

Now, I think that last picture is a little misleading. I watched a lot of video on the MLB.tv archived footage, and Snell was still pointing his foot to the right of home plate a little bit. He's not "fixed" by any stretch of the imagination. But he did have his moments, and that's progress. Back when I used to pitch, the direction of the landing foot was a little thing that, for me, made a lot of difference - when I pointed my toes more towards first base (I'm a lefty) it felt like I was throwing over myself, like my front leg was sort of impeding forward motion. When I pointed my toes towards home, though, it was a much more fluid motion, and I had a better ability to spot the ball.

I'm not going to say that this will be the mechanical tweak that solves Ian Snell. Foot direction meant something to me, but it may not mean anything at all to him. That said, after going through some video, it seems to me that he did a better job of pointing towards home plate in 2007, so I'm definitely all about the team doing what it can to get him back to looking how he used to look. If they can get him landing better and feeling comfortable about it, something tells me we'll start to see him throwing more strikes.

Rob Johnson was available today. There was no reason for him not to be. And yet, with a pitcher struggling to find his way on the mound, we saw Kenji Johjima behind the plate. This interests me, because you'd think a team who believes in the Rob Johnson hype would want Johnson working with Snell, but it also makes me mad, because now we probably won't get to see Kenji square off against Jarrod Washburn.

Snell's fastest pitch tonight was 93.8mph.

I'm going to stick with the Snell subject a little while longer, because he's by far the most interesting guy to talk about today. One other thing I'll mention about him is that that 11-pitch at bat against Carlos Guillen in the sixth inning really went to show what can happen when you don't have an out pitch against left-handed hitters. If you thought that at bat felt like something out of Sean Green's playbook, you weren't the only one. Snell kept trying to get something by him or induce weak contact, but Guillen wasn't having any of it, and he just stayed in and fouled things off until Snell made a mistake. I won't say "get used to things like that," because 11-pitch at bats are highly unusual, but when we said that Snell struggles with lefties, this is what we were talking about. He just doesn't have the consistent changeup you need to be solid all around, and as such he will live and die by how well he can throw strikes to righties. Even if he gets good again, he'll still be pretty frustrating.

I think my favorite part of any winning broadcast is when Mike Blowers starts going on about how the secret behind David Aardsma's breakthrough season is greatly improved command of his fastball. Because even if his fastball command is greatly improved, what?

You know, considering the number of lefties he's faced, I'd say it's pretty impressive that Michael Saunders is one Chris Gimenez leap away from a .281/.324/.375 batting line. He's shown decent discipline, he looks beyond comfortable in left field, and tonight he put the ball in play in all four at bats while getting ahead of Verlander all three times he faced him. Saunders hasn't exactly had the softest big league landing imaginable, but he's managed, and for the time being I have zero complaints. I'd really like to see him maybe walk against a lefty once though.

My understanding is that rain is threatening tomorrow's 10:05am start time. Which might be just as well, because maybe it's not the best thing in the world to send a shorthanded and mediocre group of hitters up against a starting pitcher who knows each of their weaknesses.

A Long Note On Our Catchers

Matthew — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 21:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Seattle Mariners catcher Rob Johnson grimaces after yet another dropped ball in the strikezone causes him to realize that his reputation as a good defensive catcher is entirely fiction.

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Slowly, Rob Johnson is gaining acceptance amongst our circles here. Why, I am not that interested in. Perhaps just enough time has passed for us to get used to the idea that he, Rob Johnson of all people, is our starting catcher that people have stopped caring. Another factor might be that with Jeff Clement gone to Indianapolis and Adam Moore and his .766 Tacoma OPS clearly not yet ready, there does not seem to be any other choice right? We know Kenji sucks. Right?

"Catcher's defense is not important" has become too much of a black and white mantra around here, another example of a nuanced and context-dependent assertion getting blown up into a mass media sound byte and applied all willy-nilly. Defense is important no matter the position. The deal with catchers is that

A) We cannot fully evaluate their defensive impact. We have two meaningful defensive metrics for catchers: how well they control the running game, and how well they block pitches (i.e. preventing wild pitches/passed balls). We have good solid understanding of these and how to translate these into runs.

B) Compared to other positions, the standard deviation amongst Major League catchers for the above mentioned metrics is just not that large. The best catchers at controlling the running game are usually around +5 runs per season, the worst -5. Ditto for blocking pitches. ~20 runs is the difference between the best and worst catchers.

Now, yes, if you paired up the worst in both with the best in both, you would get something around a two win difference. Two wins is big and meaningful, but that is also like Baseball Prospectus' old problem with replacement level players. To determine WARP, BP used to take a replacement level hitter (which they had a good measure of) and combine it with a replacement level fielder (which they had less of a good hold on) and use that to set replacement level for a player. That set the bar way, way too low because if you were at that level in both aspects, you were not hanging around Triple-A waiting for a job, you were in High-A if you were under 24 or else you were a coach.

In practice, the best and worst catchers in the Majors would be about ten runs apart in the defense that we could measure. Compared to other positions, that is tiny and thus defense is currently less measurably important of a factor at catcher than at another position on the field. Cleared up?

How does that apply to us now? League average caught stealing rates are stable at 26 to 27% each year recently. Kenji Johjima's rates have been 28%, 40%, 27% and 52% this year. That is remarkably good. Rob Johnson was bad in limited action last year, but is just under 30% so far this year, a fair number but still 10% behind Johjima's career rate. Even though that is a big difference in percentage, that still only translates to a handful of runs in Kenji's favor.

However, we have the other measurement that we have pretty well down; blocking pitches. Note that you should not just look at passed balls otherwise you let the scorekeeper into the mix. You want to consider both passed balls and wild pitches and, no surprise to those that watch Johnson futilely try to catch, this is where Johjima really shines compared to Rob Johnson.

Per nine innings caught, Kenji has rates of 0.38, 0.36, 0.34 and 0.34 passed balls + wild pitches. That might seem high, but the MLB average so far this year is just over 0.39 so Kenji comes in a little above average. Rob Johnson, on the other hand, yowza, has a career rate of 0.58, a whopping 0.22 more per nine innings than Kenji. Now, is that perfect? No, because we are not controlling for pitchers caught, but it is probably pretty close to washing out.

Thanks to Sean Forman, we have a figure to attach to each passed ball and wild pitch of 0.27 runs. For every nine innings caught to date, Rob Johnson has been about 0.06 runs worse than Johjima at the actual act of catching. Over the course of a typical 1,000-inning catcher season, that is 6.6 runs.

When you add up our two measures of catcher's defense, Rob Johnson falls about 8-10 runs behind Kenji, nearly a full win. That is a sizable gap to make up with in terms of hitting, and given their respective ZiPS' projections (.296 wOBA for Johnson, .294 for Johjima), that would equal just three-fourths of a single run over a typical catcher's season. Even their current wOBA*s (.286 for Kenji, .299 for Johnson) does not even the difference on defense.

It reads like I am trying to build a definite case for Kenji Johjima over Rob Johnson, but that is not really my aim here so let me include a couple important points. One, Rob Johnson is trending upward, his hitting is improving and he has age on his side. Kenji Johjima is clearly in decline, so while he seems like an obvious choice (by about 7-9 runs/1000 innings) at the moment, this is an always fluid analysis.

Secondly, this is based on the stuff that we can measure and it sure seems like Rob Johnson excels at everything that we cannot. The pitchers do love him, I will not deny that or deny that it has any effect at all, but I also think it has a massive hill to climb just to make them equal in value and I want people to understand what they are asserting when they claim that Rob Johnson is our best option at catcher.

Thoughts

Jeff — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 03:06:12 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

Jose Lopez really hates breaking balls.

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So that was a fun weekend. Where things were looking grim after the loss to Cliff Lee, three games later we're right back in the thick of this and everyone's feeling pretty good about the way the team's playing. Every time you get frustrated with the Mariners for remaining on the edge of the race, remember one thing - as long as you're on the edge of the race, the games still matter. We're nearing the trade deadline, and the M's are still playing important baseball. After five months of irrelevance a year ago, I can't express how thankful I am to have the team be in this position. Sure, they could easily fall short - they're still in third place and four back of the lead - but if we get to invest ourselves and feel emotional about the bulk of the season, then that's still something. We're playing Detroit tomorrow. I would like to win. And as long as we can care about the outcomes - that's why we're here in the first place. Fuck off, 2008.

My understanding is that Erik Bedard didn't look very good yesterday, but if you missed the game and just look at his line score, you're left with a different impression. Plus strike rate, plus swinging strike rate. The successful results weren't all there, but the components were, and in the big picture I find the latter to be more important. It's obvious that Erik isn't totally right, but I'm actually more encouraged by his start than I thought I'd be when I was just getting brief updates over the course of the afternoon.

Anybody who's ever argued about pitcher control over HR/FB% just needs to watch the clip of Ichiro's game-ending catch at the wall. Aardsma's still only allowed one home run on the season, but it's not like the fact that the ball came up six inches short is evidence that Aardsma did something right. He gave up a long fly ball and got lucky. He's a good reliever, but hits like that are why he'll always make me nervous. Closers who put the ball in the air like Felix keeps the ball on the ground aren't the most comforting arms in the world.

I'm not a big fan of Jarrod Washburn the pitcher, and I don't think I'm a big fan of Jarrod Washburn the person, but I'm a big fan of Jarrod Washburn the personality:

"I wasn't sharp at all,'' he said. "I don't know how many spots I hit all night, but it wasn't many. The guys played good defense behind me. I had good life on the fastball, even though I wasn't hitting spots with it. I didn't square too many up.
There was a lot of fly balls tonight. My sinker wasn't sinking as well. I wasn't locating very good. It worked. We won. You go into a game and find out as the game progresses what you have that day and try to make it work."

There aren't a lot of starters who would be that honest about themselves after allowing one run over 6.2 innings, but this is just the latest refreshing example of Washburn's self-awareness. I'm pretty sure a big chunk of the fan base thinks Jarrod's better than Jarrod does.

It seems that Rob Johnson has officially taken over as the regular catcher. Kenji Johjima will still get his playing time, but if Johnson is going to be the personal catcher for three starters, then that makes him first-string, whether the team will admit as much or not. And, well, whatever. Dave's already made the case that his bat is better than people think, and while I don't think it's on the same level as Kenji's, the difference is small enough that I might as well trust that the coaches know what they're doing. There's never been any good evidence that catcher ERA means anything, but if pitchers are more comfortable with one guy over another - and I think it's pretty clear that Rob's the preferred receiver around here - then you don't really have much choice. There's a reason why some of the guys would rather throw to Rob than Kenji, and regardless of what that reason is, comfort's important, and not to be ignored. Most pitchers won't respond very well if they ask to be caught by one guy and you tell them "tough titties."

Me on June 24th:

Actually, I don't think Ronny Cedeno has a clue against anyone. In-season ZiPS projects him for a rest-of-season line of .246/.289/.366, but I think this might be one of those times where we have enough visual evidence to overrule the computer forecasts, because Cedeno has looked as bad as any Major League hitter I have ever seen in my life.

Ronny Cedeno since June 24th: .257/.286/.446. He still looks like total crap, and his plate discipline numbers over the course of this "hot streak" are embarrassing, but yet the results have still been there, so chalk another one up for in-season ZiPS. I wonder if this is what Ronny has always looked like. At the plate, he's visually repulsive, but he's still managed to hit more balls 400 feet than Jose Lopez. Though the Mariners could still use an everyday shortstop, you have to give it to Cedeno - for the past few weeks, he's helped.

Turns out RRS was sitting at 88-91 again in his most recent start, that being the dominant game in Las Vegas. He's now back at his standard starting velocity and has racked up 34 strikeouts and six walks in 42.2 innings over his last seven starts. Garrett Olson, meanwhile, can't throw strikes, miss bats, or keep the ball on the ground. Right now, Olson has the support of the coaching staff, but these things can change in a hurry, and with RRS beginning to look like a guy in Tacoma who's better than his league, Olson's going to need a good game tomorrow if he wants to hang on to his job. Man, it's good to have Ryan back.

King Felix is pretty good.

First Half In Review: Mariners Go Driving

Jeff — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 00:56:45 -0000

The Mariner players' first half performances as things that can happen to you in the car.

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David Aardsma: somebody texts you a happy score update of a big game, the beginning of which you have to miss because your boss made you work late and you've had it with these stupid East Coast start times.

Wladimir Balentien: somebody texts you a sad score update of said game.

Miguel Batista: somebody texts you a score update of the game, but when you reach into your pocket to see if it's happy or sad, a police officer drives by, sees you, pulls you over, and writes you a ticket.

Erik Bedard: the air conditioner keeps shutting off every few minutes, and while it always manages to fix itself, you wish it would just turn on and stay on because it's a hundred degrees outside and you don't want to roll down the window.

Adrian Beltre: you use the same six-hour permit on your dashboard to park downtown four nights in a row. On the fifth night, you get caught and your car is towed.

Yuniesky Betancourt: the cop that pulled you over for texting while driving hands you the ticket then punches you in the face for being such a sad little fairy.

Russell Branyan: drive-in movie with the prom queen who didn't win because of her intellect. And the movie is Braveheart or something.

Ronny :(edeno: sometime during the night a cat climbs up and dies in your engine.

Endy Chavez: you clean your window, but the wiper fluid leaves some messy streaks and when you try to make those go away you run out of liquid.

Ken Griffey Jr: every time you turn on your vent or air conditioner, it introduces a little tolerable but annoying constant static to your iPod playback.

Franklin Gutierrez: you're driving down a desert freeway and you see a hitchhiker and even though you don't usually do things like this you decide to pull over and pick him up and the hitchhiker is Mitch Hedberg who's alive somehow and vows to repay you with hours of comedy.

Felix Hernandez: reaching for some change to pay for your drive-through coffee, you open up the container you keep under the seat and find $200 in cash that you got from an ATM, stored away, and forgot about.

Chris Jakubauskas: no matter how many times you adjust the rear-view mirror, it keeps slipping out of position and giving you a view of the back seat. But you just re-upholstered the back seat and it looks nice, so that's something.

Kenji Johjima: the switch to electronically move your seat forward and back is broken, so you have to move it yourself with that lever that's by the floor that got all sticky when you dropped that one soda.

Rob Johnson: the cupholder is too wide and too shallow, so every time you drive with a drink you have to lean forward a little and awkwardly position yourself so that you can hold it in place.

Shawn Kelley: you get into the car just in time to hear your favorite radio station kick off an hour block of BRMC.

Ryan Langerhans: during the hour block the DJ mentions that BRMC will be coming to town on Friday with Maximo Park as the opener.

Jose Lopez: leaving work to drive home, you notice that the gas light is on, but you decide, what the hell, I'm gonna go for it.

Mark Lowe: you're driving around with a friend and you mention to her "hey you know what song I heard this morning that's really annoying? Lights by Journey. I fucking hate that song" and your friend nods and twenty seconds later she starts to sing Lights by Journey.

Brandon Morrow: on a six-hour nighttime drive through the plains to meet up with friends at the cabin in the morning, the car's GPS breaks and you lose all sense of direction.

Garrett Olson: you drive home and nothing happens.

Carlos Silva: you're driving around a lonely stretch of highway when your car starts to smell funny, and it breaks down just as you're crossing the train tracks, and then the railroad barriers sound off and lower themselves, and then your doors jam and won't open, and OH MY GOD THERE'S A COBRA IN THE GLOVE COMPARTMENT

Ichiro Suzuki: you bring dinner home to have a pleasant in-house date night with your significant other and your car smells like fresh pizza and mozzarella sticks for a week.

Mike Sweeney: lost in an unfamiliar neighborhood, you pull over and get very bad directions from a very nice man.

Jason Vargas: In-n-Out accidentally gives you an extra double-double free of charge.

Jarrod Washburn: getting an oil change and buying new tires improves your car's performance by a couple mpg.

Sean White: already running late, you spill scalding hot coffee in your lap and drive all the way to work in blinding discomfort.

Assorted others: you're wasted but not fit to drive home so you recline the seat and fall asleep.