SB Nation - Philip Humber

Twins Non-Tender Candidates

Jesse — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:15:37 -0000

Are there really any surprises? We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brendan Harris	123	414	44	108	22	1	6	37	29	78	0	2	.261	.310	.362

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable. In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had. Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well. In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Buscher	61	136	14	32	3	1	2	12	24	35	0	0	.235	.360	.316

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players. If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers. In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward. But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward. He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Philip Humber	0-0	8	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	17	8	8	1	9	9	8.00	2.89

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point. The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot. But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Delmon Young	108	395	50	112	16	2	12	60	12	92	2	5	.284	.308	.425

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, no. I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit. Every morning tell him it's September. I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Crain	7-4	56	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	48	28	27	3	27	43	4.70	1.45

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate. The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer? You could argue it's too much to pay a closer. But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players? There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around. If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had. Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch. If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	6-7	18	17	0	0	0	0	96.1	120	64	63	13	23	45	5.89	1.48

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months. No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship. If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package. I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know. This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

This is a reality, although it may surprise some. There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top. Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster. With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward. It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact. And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Justin Huber	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively. Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers. But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot. He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

Twins Acquire Jon Rauch for PTBNL

Jesse — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 20:16:27 -0000

Busy night...

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jon Rauch	2-2	58	0	0	0	2	1	54.1	57	27	25	5	17	35	4.14	1.36

Those numbers look a bit more digestible than Mahay's, right? To make room on the roster the Twins have outrighted Philip Humber to Rochester, meaning he's been removed from the 40-man roster. Which is fine, but who else gets removed for Mahay?

In any case, Rauch (a 30-year old right-hander) is trying to regain the form that made him such a useful reliever when he was with the Nationals from '06 - '08. He's struggled since his move to the Diamondbacks...thus, his availability.

While his strikeout numbers have dipped this season, he continues to do an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park. His FIP numbers have been consistent over the last few seasons, with this year's 3.98 number a more than acceptable number.

The Rauch pick-up does more for me than the Mahay deal, but you have to admit it--the Twins are trying to do something. Even with the claiming of Rich Harden, although it's something that will never come to fruition, at least they're trying. It could be a busy weekend.

Twins Acquire Ron Mahay: Analysis & Fallout

Jesse — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 19:19:46 -0000

ESPN's Buster Olney has reported that the Twins have picked up southpaw reliever Ron Mahay from the Kansas City Royals.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ron Mahay	1-1	41	0	0	0	0	0	41.1	55	26	22	9	19	34	4.79	1.79

Those are Mahay's straight up stats from this season, and they're nothing to brag about. The 38-year old lefty is joining his eighth major league team, and I wouldn't blame you for thinking that's more because of his inability to become irreplaceable than because he's just that popular. Still, being able to hang around to this age as a bullpen specialist is a tribute of some kind.

Minnesota's front office does understand that their bullpen and rotation are in need of a little boost, and Randball's Stu has already covered the hot topic of last night when the Twins claimed Rich Harden, but even though the Twins are paying just a pro-rated portion of the major league minimum for one month of Mahay you have to ask the question: is this an improvement?

Jose Mijares and Brian Duensing are currently the only two lefties on the 25-man roster, with Mijares as the southpaw out of the 'pen. Adding the veteran Mahay gives the Twins an extra option from that side of the rubber, giving them another choice when working match-ups late in the game. Wait, did I just say "match-ups"?

Pitcher	AVG VS RHB	OPS VS RHB	AVG VS LHB	OPS VS LHB
Ron Mahay	.340	1.043	.278	.778
Joe Nathan	.180	.468	.161	.542
Matt Guerrier	.221	.644	.167	.441
Jose Mijares	.276	.756	.130	.439
Jesse Crain	.244	.646	.356	1.092
Bob Keppel	.282	.834	.304	.852
Jeff Manship	.500	1.038	.222	.541
Brian Duensing	.277	.809	.250	.629
Philip Humber	.429	.984	.385	1.004

Sure, there's some small sample size considerations here with guys like Humber, Manship...and even probably Keppel and Duensing, What it looks like we're getting in Mahay isn't necessarily a guy who is a definitive statistical improvement over half of this crew, but he is a guy who's seen...well, not "it all", but he's seen a lot. And we're getting a guy whose longevity may or may not mean something to the men who pitch in front of him and the guys who field behind him. Maybe the biggest positive we're getting from the acquisition of Mahay is the appearance to the players that yes, actually, the front office is trying to do something.

In a pennant race, given the choice between a 38-year old veteran and a non-hype rookie who's gotten shelled, who do you choose?

Fallout

Somebody is going to be removed from the 25-man roster, first of all. This could be Joe Crede, although this would put pressure on the Twins in regards to the post-season roster. It needs to be set by the end of the month, and considering this rule...

In cases of injury replacements on the post-season roster, only position players can be inserted for position players, and likewise pitchers for pitchers

...things could get difficult. Putting Crede on the DL and using Mahay to fill his roster spot means the Twins would need to make a move on another position player prior to September 1, unless they want to fake an injury to someone like Alexi Casilla...which I wouldn't advise they do. Not that they'd listen to me.

The most likely, and most logical, scenario sees the Twins sending Armando Gabino back to Rochester, having Mahay fill his spot, and keeping four starters on the roster; Thursday's off-day keeps everyone on rest, and with rosters expanding on Tuesday the Twins could have another starter ready to drop into the rotation.

Of course, none of this means that Crede shouldn't be sent to the disabled list.

More importantly than possibly all of that, is making room on the 40-man roster. Even with Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey not taking up space by being on the 60-day DL, all spots are filled. The Twins could shift either Francisco Liriano or Glen Perkins to the 60-day DL, or they could attempt to remove someone by passing them through waivers. Of course, this assumes the Twins would want to bring this person back. It's more than realistic to entertain the notion that someone like Humber could get his walking papers.

Conclusions

Picking up Mahay wasn't a bad move, but we really have to hope he either performs better for the Twins than he did the Royals, or is simply used more effectively than he was with the Royals. But what's fun is that the most intriguing part of this acquisition isn't the acquisition itself, it's what happens to get that acquisition on the field.

What are your thoughts?

Upcoming...fallout and conclusions...

Twins win ugly

cmathewson — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 05:24:57 -0000

More photos » by Andy King - AP

Minnesota Twins Justin Morneau homers in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles in a baseball game on Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2009 in Minneapolis.(AP Photo/Andy King)

Browse more photos »

Delmon Young singled home the game winner to lift the Minnesota Twins to a rare walk-off win 7-6 over the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday night at the Metrodome.

The win pulls the Twins into a tie for second place in the American League Central Division with the Chicago White Sox, despite both teams playing .500 ball to this point.

The game was one of the sloppiest the Twins have played all year. The Twins started Armando Gabino, who had 12 professional starts in his nine-year minor league career. His inexperience showed as he was all over the place with his fastball, walking three and leaving with the bases loaded after giving up three runs in 2 2/3 innings.

His own defense didn't help his cause. With one out in the second dinning, a pick-off attempt ended up in the Orioles' bullpen, sending Cesar Izturis to third. In the same at bat, he scored on what would have been a double play ground out to short by Brian Roberts. With one out in the third inning, Gabino failed to cover first in time on a double play grounder to short. He later filled the bases with two outs and had an early exit.

The Orioles matched the Twins blunder for blunder through three innings, despite a terrific play by Felix Pie on a slicing gapper off the bat of Carlos Gomez. (OK, what's with he French pronunciation? The guy's name is Pie, as in Apple Pie. If he introduced himself to me for the first time as Pee-eh? I would have said, "You're shittin' me right? You're name is Pie and you'd rather go by a phrase a French Canadian uses when he's gotta go take a leak.") Anyway, great catch aside, the Twins took advantage of some poor pitching to string together three hits and score two runs. The big hit was a Denard Span triple to score Alexi Casilla and Young.

Philip Humber relieved "Garbino" (Bert's pronunciation) and had even less control, walking four--two with the bases loaded--in a full inning of work. Bumbler has a nice curve, but he doesn't know where his fastball is going half the time. He might just be the first of the pitchers acquired in the Johan Santana trade to get shown the door.

The Twins relief corps got steadily better after Bumbler left. Bobby Keppel was more like Dr. Keppel than Mr. Hyde on this night, holding the Orioles to one run over the next 2 1/3 innings. He was throwing strikes, which seemed to breath fresh life into the Twins, both in the field and at the plate. Jesse Crain relieved him and, amazingly, also threw quality strikes to breeze through 2 innings and give the Twins a chance to catch up.

Justin Morneau blasted a high fastball into the sky box and later started a rare double play. After a Pee-eh? double, Nolan Reimold popped up near the Orioles dugout. Both Joe Mauer and Morneau converged on the ball, with Morneau making the catch and Mauer stumbling into the dugout. Somehow Pee-eh? thought he could tag up on the play and was easily caught trying to go to third. This matched his bone-head play earlier in the game when Orlando Cabrera deeked him on a line drive single to right, getting him to run back toward first on a ball that easily could have sent him to third with his speed. The double play cost the Orioles at least a run, so Pee-eh? was even on the day, having saved them a run earlier with the great catch.

The heroes of the night--Young and Casilla--helped to tie the game in the (you guessed it) sixth inning. After Orioles starter Brian Matusz had retired six batters in a row, the Orioles inexplicably brought in former Twins nemesis Brian Bass. In truth, B-Ass is only a Twins nemesis if he wears a Twins uniform. Right on cue, he allowed five base runners and three runs without retiring a batter before getting pulled. Despite a Mauer double play grounder and a Morneau ground out off of lefty Mark Hendrickson to to end the inning, the Twins took the field in the seventh with the game tied at 6.

Crain left the game in the ninth after giving up a lead-off double to Nolan Reimold. Jose Mijares came in and retired the three batters he faced to preserve the tie and give the Twins a chance to win the game in walk-off fashion.

The Orioles didn't just roll over, however. They had flame thrower Kam Mickolio pitch the last two innings and the Twins couldn't do anything off of him. At least until two were out in the ninth. After a Michael Cuddyer single and Jason Kubel walk, Young got rewarded with a long, patient at bat to line a single to right. The 3-2 count allowed Cuddyer to be off with the pitch from second and score the winning run.

Studs and duds after the jump.

Studs:

1. Delmon Young: I think DHing suits him. On this night, he went 4-5 with 2 runs and the game-winning hit.

2. Alexi Casilla: OK, so he didn't get the bunt down. No worries, he got the job done by doubling off the baggie. 2-3 with a walk, 2 runs and an RBI

3. Jose Mijares: That was closer material. That change-up on a 3-2 count to strike out Matt Wieters and end the inning to strand the winning run on second was a thing of beauty.

Duds:

1. Felix Pie: I know it only cost them one run, but who tags up on a pop out near the dugout?

2. Philip Humber: My God man, throw the ball over the plate! You can get guys out with your stuff. Try it some time. It has to be better than nibbling and walking guys.

3. Armando Gabino: Hate to pick on the new guy, but he doesn't belong in this role. Talk about thrusting a guy into a pressure cooker with no experience. The results were predictable.

Atlanta Braves Minor League Recap: 7/28

yondaime4 — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 04:53:13 -0000

Rochester 7, Gwinnett 1

V. Pope 2-4 2B, K

Man, call this the rehab game. Jeff Bennett, Buddy Carlyle and James Parr all made appearances and only Carlyle pitched well tossing a scoreless inning. Alvin Colina was the only other Brave to collect more than 1 hit. We were up against Philip Humber for crying out loud.

West Tenn 1, Mississippi 4 - Game 1 7 Innings

J. Heyward 1-3 HR(3), 2 RBI
W. Cabrera 1-3 RBI
J. Ortegano 7IP 5H 1R 1BB 6K

Jose Ortegano comes out DEALING in his first AA start. You know, for a guy that probably never touches 90 on a radar gun the guy actually strikes out a decent amount of batters. Another thing to remember about him is that he doesn't turn 22 for another week. Not bad at all. Also Jason Heyward is good.

West Tenn 0, Mississippi 1 - Game 2 7 Innings

J. Heyward 3-3 RBI, BB
T. Gustafson 4IP 0H 0R 1BB 4K

Jason Heyward is now hitting .443 in AA.

Myrtle Beach 7, Potomac 6

D. Linares 2-5 2 RBI, K
C. Johnson 1-3 2 BB, 2K
CJ Lee 2-4 2 2B, 2 RBI, K
C. Kimbrel 2IP 1H 0R 0BB 5K

I didn't put it up there, but Cole Rohrbough had another bad outing in this game giving up 5 runs in 4 innings. He was doing fine until the 5th inning and then walked a guy, surrendered a double, a single and then a homer and then was pulled from the game. He just seems to lose confidence or fall apart when one thing doesn't go his way. I really don't know what to make of his season so far.

Rome 4, Kannapolis 1

A. Milligan 3-4 HR(6), 4 RBI, K, CS(3)
M. Kennelly 2-4
C. Culver 3-4 2 2B, K
D. Delgado 7IP 3H 1R 3BB 9K

I really wonder if the Delgado guys try to match each other every time out? Whatever it is they posted consecutive excellent starts. Adam Milligan is going to make me keep writing about him as he has now homered in 4 straight games and is batting a Heyward-like .500 in his last 10 games. I f he keeps this up he is probably going to catapult himself into our post season top 10 lists.

Danville 6, Burlington 4

M. Jones 2-5 HR(4), 2 K
C. Harrilchak 3-5 HR(1), 2 RBI, SB(10)
RSF 2-4 RBI, BB, K, CS(2)
T. Stovall 5.1IP 5H 3R 4BB 6K

Mycal Jones is keeping up his impressive run with a 9 games hitting streak that has seen him knock 11 XBH in that time. In 100 ABs in July he has a .942 OPS and is looking like a good pick up in the 4th round. The only issue I have with him is that he is already 22 years old and I think he needs to be pushed up to Rome, but I don't think there is room for him right now. Tyler Stovall kept up his erratc behavior in this one with lots of Ks and walks. On the season his line is 26.2IP/33BB/35K.

GCL Braves 3, GCL Tigers 7

J. Dalfonso 2-2 RBI
L. Hiller 1-4 HR(5), 2 RBI

Hooray Baseball!

Santana's Fortune: Three Down, One to Go

Jesse — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 22:15:16 -0000

With the arrival of Kevin Mulvey, the Twins are about to get a glimpse of the third of the four players the team received in return for the best southpaw in baseball, Johan Santana.

Anytime you make a trade it's easy to rush to judgment on which team won. Ultimately only history can tell the tale, but it's really no secret what most people would answer if asked who won the Johan swap: the Mets. Is it any wonder?

Carlos Gomez	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
Minnesota Twins	230	764	107	193	35	10	9	77	39	181	40	15	.253	.295	.360

Philip Humber	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Minnesota Twins Rochester Red Wings	0-0 14-14	9 46	0 37	0 3	0 0	0 0	0 0	16.0 210	22 231	12 127	12 117	5 31	8 79	10 165	6.75 5.01	1.88 1.51

Kevin Mulvey	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Rochester Red Wings	10-15	44	44	3	1	0	0	241	261	132	107	22	86	202	4.00	1.38

Deolis Guerra	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
Fort Myers Miracle New Britain Rock Cats	17-17 1-0	42 2	40 1	1 0	1 0	0 0	0 0	216.1 9.2	233 13	137 7	124 6	18 0	96 3	128 8	5.16 5.59	1.52 1.66

Not the most glowing stat lines by any stretch of the imagination. I'm looking foward to seeing what Mulvey can do for this bullpen's consistency, and with Gomez (23) and Guerra (20) being so young you can't write them off, the final chapter on this deal still hasn't been written.

Which is a good thing, because here's how Johan's performed as a Met.

Johan Santana	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
New York Mets	26-14	52	52	3	2	0	0	350.2	309	123	106	38	100	318	2.72	1.17

The good news for the organization is that people are already so disappointed with the outcome of this deal (the immediate satisfaction crowd is disproportionately large compared to those who prefer the long-term view) that even if none of these guys turn into bonafide stars, the worst of the reaction has already come and gone. From where I'm standing, the review of this swap has nowhere to go but up. Hopefully.

In a comment earlier today I mentioned that Mulvey is getting this call because he's been one of Rochester's most consistent pitchers since coming over from the Mets. After doing my homework I've come to see that's not exactly true, but in spite of ups and downs it's the body of work that still stands out. He has a 3.50 minor league ERA, and over his last ten triple-A starts has pitched 68.1 innings with 50 strikeouts and 19 walks, and a more than acceptable 3.82 ERA. His FIP is even lower, at 3.55.

Good strikeout rates and mediocre walk rates point to Mulvey having the potential to be something more than a replacement-level arm, especially if he can continue inducing ground balls as he has this season (52% GB rate). But just like all of the available parts from Rochester, this is a spot he has to earn. If he struggles, the upside isn't there to entice the organization to keep him up in the hope that he comes around.

Best of luck, Mr. Mulvey.

Poll

Look into your magic 8-ball. Did the Twins win the Johan Santana trade?

Very doubtful (Or, The Mets Won...duh)

173 votes

You may rely on it (Or, Yes)

16 votes

Reply hazy, try again (Or, come back in a few years and ask again)

134 votes

323 votes | Poll has closed

Go Ahead, Criticize The One Thing He's Good At

Sam Page — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 15:59:14 -0000

Leave it to John Harper to come to the same conclusion as the rest of us, after exhausting the most backward logic, based on a wealth of misinformation. After the usual trumping up of Jerry Manuel's "request" for a trade, we begin:

But the problem is the Mets have so few desirable prospects at the upper levels of their farm system that Minaya is dealing from a position of weakness in trying to make any type of trade.

This statement would have been somewhat true before the promotion of Brad Holt, Jenrry Mejia, and Ike Davis. I'd say the Mets now have quite a few desirable prospects in the upper levels. In fact, here's a list of notable prospects in Buffalo and Binghamton: Jon Niese, Tobi Stoner, Michael Antonini, Eddie Kunz, Fernando Martinez, Brad Holt, Jenrry Mejia, Ike Davis, Shawn Bowman, Josh Thole, Ruben Tejada, Dylan Owen, and sometimes Jonathan Malo. Wow, actually that's quite a few, seven of which should crack some top prospects lists. But go on...

Of course, he has only himself to blame for that, as the lack of prospects developed during Minaya's five-year regime with the Mets is a glaring failure. Never mind top prospects, the simple lack of major-league ready talent is haunting the big club at the moment as the Mets scramble to survive all their injuries.

Is the insinuation here that Omar should have some major league ready prospect ready to fill in everytime someone gets injured? No team can realistically do that, which is why bench player depth exists (hint, hint, the really glaring failure of the Minaya regime). Oh, what's this? Here comes the major-league ready talent graduated during Minaya's tenure list: Lastings Milledge, Daniel Murphy, John Maine, Nick Evans, Jon Niese, Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, and Bobby Parnell. Not bad for a win-now team with a huge payroll.

Consider that the Mets' top two minor league teams are a combined 39 games under .500 - Triple-A Buffalo is 26-47, Double-A Binghamton is 28-46 - and it gives you an idea of how bleak the situation is.

Listen, I know expectations were high for Mike Lamb as the future face of the franchise, but there were signs. He had been cut from the Twins last year after batting .200. He was 33. We should have seen it coming. That, coupled with Willy Mo busting,...it's been a tough year for Mets fans.

Furthermore, one scout who observed Buffalo in mid-June recently said that Fernando Martinez was the only position player who could be considered a major-league prospect. The scout called the Mets' system "impotent" and openly wondered whether Minaya has had any kind of real plan in place other than acquiring high-priced free-agents.

Either Harper is quoting his scout friend, Cpt. Obvious, out of context, or they both have serious logic problems.

Ouch.

To be fair, the Mets did surrender a total of 11 players in the trades for Johan Santana and J.J. Putz the last two years, and at the time of the Putz deal last winter, Minaya made a point of telling reporters that his farm system deserved more respect.

alley...

To be just as fair, however, major leaguers Aaron Heilman and Endy Chavez were the key cogs in the Putz trade, and the Mets got Santana because the Twins were backed into a corner, unable to get the Yankees or Red Sox to package their top minor-league talent.

OOP!! Or perhaps it reflects well on Minaya's ability developing the farm and as a General Manager that he didn't trade his best young players for Santana? No, no, no, the Twins had to trade him because the Red Sox wouldn't offer Ellsbury and Buchholz.

"Sir, the Yankees won't trade Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy all at once."

"Who's that team that keeps offering four prospects for Mike Lamb? Y'know, the really impotent one?"

"The Mets?"

"Yea, see if they'll take Santana on too."

Did you ever think the Twins, arguably the greatest scouting team in the majors, might have liked Gomez and Guerra, both of whom were ranked as top prospects?

In addition, it's worth noting that outfielder Carlos Gomez, the centerpiece of the Santana trade, was in the Mets' system before Minaya became GM, and the Twins have been disappointed in the three minor-league pitchers, Kevin Mulvey, Deolis Guerra, and Philip Humber (who was released this spring), in the deal.

It's like...pitching prospects have a high rate or attrition...or something crazy like that! I'm sure the Twins would have been much happier getting the mythical Ian Kennedy/Phil Hughes package Harper alludes to. Those two have never disappointed.

P.S. Omar Minaya left his position with the Mets, where he was heavily involved in international scouting, in 2002. Carlos Gomez signed with the Mets as an international free agent in 2002. If you asked Omar Minaya what he thought about Carlos Gomez before he became the Mets' GM, he'd probably have an answer.

On the other hand, under Minaya the Mets have developed pitchers Mike Pelfrey and Bobby Parnell, as well as infielder Daniel Murphy. And signing free agents has cost them a couple of top draft picks in recent years.

but you already made me do the list!

But the real sticking point is the apparent failure to cash in on the Pedro Martinez signing five years ago. At the time Minaya essentially said he was willing to overpay for Pedro, in the form of $52 million over four years, because of the dividends it would provide, because every kid in the Dominican Republic would want to sign with the Mets.

Since then, however, the only such signings of significance appear to be Fernando Martinez, 19-year-old shortstop Ruben Tejada and 17-year-old shortstop Wilmer Flores. That's not exactly a pipeline of talent.

Those three players certainly don't suggest a pipeline of Dominican talent, mostly because only one of them is Dominican in the first place. Here are some Mets' prospects that are actually from the country he's talking about: Fernando Martinez, Jenrry Mejia, Francisco Pena, Cesar Puello, Greg Veloz, Jeury Familia, Elvin Ramirez, and Juan Lagares. Notice that list does not account for many of the most recent signings and the Mets Dominican Baseball Academy in Boca Chica, DR.

-snip-
"By now I thought their system would be loaded with good (Latin) players," one major league scouting director said recently. "But for whatever reason, it hasn't happened."

Is it so bad the Mets don't throw three million dollars at every international prospect on the market? Yes, I wish they would go after more talents like Ynoa, but they seem to get the best bang for the buck of any MLB team. Which makes me wonder, has Harper ever heard of Jenrry Mejia? Signed for a relatively small bonus from the Dominican Republic...throws a 95 mph sinking fastball...is dominating AA as a teenager...no? Nevermind.

The same baseball people say the Mets do have attractive prospects at the lower levels of their minor-league system, Flores especially, and righthander Brad Holt, their first-round supplemental pick a year ago who was recently promoted to Double-A.

Brad Holt, a very attractive lower-level prospect, in the Mets upper-levels...

Either one would get the attention of a team looking to make a trade, but considering how few such prospects the Mets have, it hardly seems worth it to include them in quick-fix deals for someone like Adam Dunn, Nick Johnson or Aubrey Huff - or even Mark DeRosa, who was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals on Saturday.

Wow, how'd we get here? Yes, the Mets should not trade top prospects for a player that will only help minimally, but not because the farm system is barren. They shouldn't make those trades period. They're not going to be worth their prices, and the Mets have much bigger problems than what a DeRosa-type or Adam "0 WAR" Dunn is going to solve.

Listen, I blame Minaya for alot, but not for the work he's done internationally or with the farm system. The Mets have their best farm in 10 years and are in a great position to develop a fantastic young team. There was nothing before Minaya, except what he had left behind from his scouting days and Steve Philips' favorite Jose Cruz Jr. trade bait, David Wright.

Which reminds me, do you remember why the Mets are so desperate for a trade, Mr. Harper? They lost a shortstop, who you affectionately called a headcase, who Minaya signed for nothing out of the Dominican Republic. Does that count as major-league ready talent?

Do the Twins have the worst bullpen in baseball?

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 18 May 2009 13:00:13 -0000

We Twins backers are all rather frustrated with the state of the bullpen; the late-inning guys have lost three games in a row, and have generally been awful this season. But how bad are things, really? Is the Twins bullpen as bad as we think, by the numbers - and in comparison to the rest of the league?

+ Test #1: Losses, saves, and blown saves.

Minnesota's 'pen has blown seven saves this year, but that's only good for a tie for seventh. The Nationals relievers have blown an astonishing 11 save opportunities - which is especially impressive, given that Washington has only six saves on the year.

Unfortunately, there are two other teams with just six saves - and Minnesota's one of them. Joe Nathan is 6-8 in save opportunities this year, and the rest of the bullpen has blown five other games. This 46% conversion rate is third worst in the majors, behind only Houston (41%) and Washington (35%).

Speaking of blowing games, the Twins bullpen has lost six games - but that's not even close to the Nationals (11 losses) or the Angels (10 losses, including seven blown saves.) Minnesota is tied for ninth.

+ Test #2: OPS Against

On-base percentage plus slugging percentage is a pretty good stand-in for run production. It would make sense that the bullpen with the worst OPS against is therefore the worst in baseball.

Here once again, it's hard to beat the Nationals bullpen, which has an OPS against of .849. Houston is second-worst at .842. The Twins, though, are right in the running; their OPS against of .824 is seventh-worst in the big leagues.

Other candidates for "Worst Bullpen in the American League" also emerge, including Cleveland (.838 OPS against, 7/15 in save opportunities), and the Yankees (.837, 7/12).

+ Test #3: Fielding-Independent Pitching

Forgetting about defense for a second, we look at pure pitching statistics, using the sabrematrician's favorite, FIP. And as you might expect, the same candidates fall out on the bottom of the league: New York (5.87) is worst, followed by Texas (5.62) and Houston (5.47). Cleveland is fourth-worst at 5.39, but then comes our Twins at 5.31. (They're even worse than Washington, which is at 5.19).

+ And so, our best conclusions from the numbers...

The numbers don't lie: The Twins bullpen is terrible on a number of levels. They can't hold a lead, nor can they get anybody out.

That said, things are worse by far in Washington, and probably in Houston as well. And fans in Cleveland and New York have reasons to be miffed as well.

Of course, a look at the standings probably would be enough to anger those fans: Cleveland and Washington are in last place. Houston is barely ahead of the Pirates. And the Yankees are 4.5 games back... and would be much worse off, if it weren't for three games against Minnesota's relievers.

And so, our conclusion: the Twins do not have the worst bullpen in the major leagues. But it's close.

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:14:18 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr. - AP

Given yesterday's line (77 pitches, 45 strikes), there's about a 42% chance this is a picture of Manny Parra getting ready to throw outside the zone.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while pulling the tarp at dawn.

Well, the opening game of this series was about as much fun as the rest of them have been. Adam McCalvy's excitement over the decision to resume the game after an hour rain delay sums it up nicely.

Ryan Braun spoke to reporters after the game about his frustration with the team's play. He says there's plenty of blame to go around. (Also noted in FanShot)

Rickie Weeks left last night's game early after a collision with J.J. Hardy, who cut in front of him to get a ground ball in the second inning. Weeks was complaining of dizziness at the time but says he's fine and is not expected to miss any time.

The Bucky Channel says something is missing from this team. I'll go ahead and suggest control from the pitching staff. Brewer pitchers have walked 65 batters through 13 games. They're on pace for 810 walks in 2009, up 282 from 2008 and 153 more than the Pirates allowed last season, when they led the National League. Chuckie Hacks is struggling to find another situation in sports to compare it to.

At any rate, the thing this team is missing is almost certainly not Tony Gwynn Jr., but Al notes that TGJ is posting a .390 OBP early in the season in AAA.

Trevor Hoffman threw 18 pitches in an inning of work for Nashville last night, and is still on pace to return to the team Sunday. When he is activated, either Jorge Julio or R.J. Swindle will likely be removed from the roster to make room for him. Al handicapped the race for the spot.

Jason Kendall will stay in the lineup despite his early season struggles at the plate. Ken Macha had this to say about it:

Macha said he drew up "the pluses and minuses" of Kendall and Rivera, both behind the plate and on offense.

"If the No. 3, 4 and 5 guys were hitting, you wouldn't be asking what Jason Kendall is doing," Macha said.

I guess we now know for sure that Ken Macha doesn't read this site.

Since there's not much else to discuss in positive terms, I guess we can keep talking about Todd Coffey, right? He set a Brewer record for most scoreless appearances to begin a Brewer career, and needs 2.2 more scoreless innings to tie the record for most scoreless innings.

Maybe some of these fans will buy a Coffey jersey: The Brewers announced yesterday they've sold 2 million tickets this season. It's the earliest they've reached that milestone in team history, but the pace may be slowing a bit - they've been well ahead of last year's pace for most of the offseason, but are only three days ahead now.

Elsewhere around baseball:

Angels: Placed reliever Kevin Jepsen on the DL with back spasms.
A's: Reliever Joey Devine underwent Tommy John surgery and will miss the rest of 2009.
Nationals: Placed Joe Beimel on the DL with a hip injury.
Orioles: Ryan Freel has been placed on the DL after being hit in the head with a pickoff throw.
Pirates: Ryan Doumit will have surgery on his right wrist and be out 8-10 weeks.
Rockies: Ryan Speier has been placed on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Tigers: Marcus Thames will be placed on the DL with what sounds like a strained oblique.
Twins: Phil Humber cleared waivers and was sent to AAA.
White Sox: Designated Mike MacDougal for assignment.

Rickie Weeks has had his share of scary moments over the last few days, but umpire Kerwin Danley can top it. He was hit in the head by a broken bat last night and had to be taken off the field on a stretcher after suffering a possible concussion.

Oh, and Hideki Irabu is attempting a comeback.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 14:26:26 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

He may not be so good at high fives, but Todd Coffey's other skills made up for it yesterday.

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Some things to read while playing D&D with Vin Diesel.

Jeff Suppan surprised many of us with a solid performance yesterday, but how much weight do you put on it? Tom H. called yesterday Suppan's "Redemption Day." Two-Fisted Slopper called Suppan's outing a "great success."

With that said, Citi Field is already being credited as one of baseball's greatest pitcher's parks. Buster Olney and Ryan Braun both noted how hard it is to hit the ball out. It's likely not a coincidence that the two teams averaged less than three runs per contest this weekend despite starts from Jeff Suppan, Livan Hernandez and Nelson Figueroa.

For context, Nelson Figueroa pitched at about the same level as Jeff Suppan yesterday, and after the game he was designated for assignment.

A couple of other Citi Field tidbits: Here's Brian Anderson's view from the broadcast booth and Cute Sports' rundown of complaints about the views from the visitors bullpen and radio booth.

There were, however, no complaints about the performance of Todd Coffey. Coffey recorded eight outs for the save yesterday. Even though a pitcher who completes the last three innings of a win is awarded a save regardless of the score, Coffey's 2.2 inning save yesterday was the 17th longest save since the start of the 2008 season, and the longest in a game decided by less than four runs. Michael Hunt thinks the Brewer bullpen may have reached a turning point. Certainly, Trevor Hoffman's projected Sunday return won't hurt.

So, having salvaged one win in New York, the Brewers move on to Philadelphia, where they're not looking to avenge their 2008 playoff defeat. That's a good thing, because trading a playoff series loss for a win in April wouldn't be fair anyway.

Jason Kendall might get more than his usual day off this week, as it's being reported that he's playing with a sore arm after being hit by a foul tip over the weekend. I don't think anyone around here will be too upset if Mike Rivera gets a few extra starts.

For some, though, it's a story when their arm isn't sore. Mark Rogers hit 97 on the gun in his second outing back with Brevard County. He's on a 50 pitch limit for the first half of the season, but has pitched two trouble-free outings. (h/t FanShot)

Across the league:

Angels: Vladimir Guerrero has a torn pec muscle, will miss at least a month and may not play the field again in 2009.
Astros: Scheduled a press conference for tonight and are expected to announce they've picked up Cecil Cooper's option for 2010.
Blue Jays: Placed Michael Barrett on the DL with a torn muscle and possible fracture in his shoulder.
Braves: Designated Blaine Boyer for assignment.
Mets: Placed Brian Schneider on the DL with a strained muscle in his back.
Nationals: Placed CF Roger Bernadina on the DL with a broken ankle and Cristian Guzman on the DL with a hamstring strain. They also designated Wil Ledezma and Steven Shell for assignment and signed Ryan Zimmerman to a five year deal worth $45 million.
Padres: Placed Walter Silva on the DL with a forearm strain.
Rangers: Designated reliever Josh Rupe for assignment.
Red Sox: Brad Wilkerson, who had been playing in AAA Pawtucket, has decided to retire.
Twins: Designated Phil Humber for assignment and claimed Juan Morillo off waivers from the Rockies. Humber was considered a key part of the deal that sent Johan Santana to the Mets.

This is small sample size in all of its glory, but there's a lot of early talk about home runs flying out of New Yankee Stadium, and phrases like pitcher's nightmare are being thrown about. Maybe someone is already doing this, but it certainly doesn't look like it: If you can design a system that analyzes new ballparks and estimates their park factor before they open, you might be in line to make a lot of money.

Oh, and Mr. Met has an office at Citi Field.

Drink up.