SB Nation - Nick Blackburn

How Much Could Carl Pavano Get Through Arbitration?

Jesse — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:02:21 -0000

Six million? That's alright. Ten million? That's outta sight. Right?

When the Twins offered Carl Pavano arbitration on Tuesday, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. He was the only Minnesota free agent to receive an offer, and well, that really didn't come as a surprise either.

Pavano and his agent have made it clear that they intend to test the open market, but for a guy who A) has said he wouldn't mind a return to Minnesota, B) has said he's not really interested in finding himself on another new team, C) probably wants to play for a contender and D) would be entering a free agent market where salaries could be suppressed (hurrah collusion conspiracy theories!), does he really want to turn down the opportunity that's presented itself to him?

The burly right-hander turns 34 in early January, and is coming off of his first not just productive but healthy season since 2004 when he was still with the Marlins. I don't want to say the end is in sight for Carl, but realistically there are way more years in baseball behind him than in front of him.

We've talked before about how FanGraphs tends to over-value a player's production in terms of dollars, and it's no different with Pavano as they estimate that on the open market his production was worth $16.5 million dollars. Obviously there's no way his numbers would be worth that much money to replace. But he was probably worth more than the $1.5 million base he was on the books for in 2009.

Here's Pavano and six other guys who had similar seasons across a number of different categories; some are closer than others.

Player	Age	Team	IP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/G	WHIP	FG Dollars
Carl Pavano	33	Indians/ Twins	199.1	4.00	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	$16.5
Nick Blackburn	27	Twins	205.1	4.37	4.29	1.79	2.39	1.09	1.37	$13.3
Mark Buehrle	30	White Sox	213.1	4.46	4.43	1.90	2.33	1.14	1.25	$15.2
James Shields	27	Rays	219.2	4.02	6.84	2.13	3.63	1.19	1.32	$18.3
Cole Hamels	25	Phillies	193.2	3.72	7.81	2.00	3.91	1.12	1.29	$16.9
Ryan Dempster	32	Cubs	200.0	3.87	7.74	2.93	2.65	0.99	1.31	$16.4
Scott Baker	27	Twins	200.0	4.08	7.29	2.16	3.38	1.26	1.19	$15.9

Blackburn was under team control last summer, but the rest of this fine cast of characters were all pitching under a contract in 2009:

Pavano: $1.5 M
Buehrle: $14.0 M
Shields: $1.5 M
Hamels: $4.35 M
Dempster: $8 M
Baker: $750 K

Immediately you see the problem. All of these guys are at different stages of their careers and at different contractual stages, and it's not realistic to just take the average of the six salaries for an estimate, which is just over $5 million. Or is it?

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible starters from last winter who were 30 or older, and what kind of a contract they received, although this won't help either because it's not free-agent arbitration:

Mike Gonzalez, 30, 1 year/$3.45 M
Brandon Backe, 30, 1 year/$1.55 M
Wandy Rodriguez, 30, 1 year/$2.6 M
Chris Capuano, 30, minor-league contract
Justin Duchscherer, 31, 1 year/$3.9 M
Todd Wellemeyer, 30, 1 year/$4.05 M

Which of course means Pavano is, more than likely, due more money than Wellemeyer received last year in his final year of arbitration. But how much?

A 34-year old Braden Looper made $4.75 million in 2009 after signing a contract with the Brewers. Coming out of his age-31 season Dempster signed a pretty substantial four-year deal with the Cubs. Randy Wolf (32) made a shade under $5 million this season, and Pavano's former rotation-mate Brady Penny (31 last season) made about the same. Jamie Moyer (older than baseball itself) made $6.5 million.

Those are the kind of guys Pavano can be grouped with: veterans who can provide innings and still be effective without breaking the bank and/or being the staff ace. So maybe $5 million doesn't actually sound so bad for an arbitration offer after all.

If that's all arbitration could garner Pavano, maybe he really might be better taking his chances on the market if he is concerned about the dollars.

Conclusions

With uncharacteristically low contracts offered last season, there has been a lot of talk that teams in baseball would rather non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players and forego the remaining year(s) of team control than pay what has suddenly become a price higher than market value. It's a financial luxury teams are choosing not to take advantage of. If this is indeed the case, some veterans who aren't sure of what the market will provide may be tempted to accept that arbitration offer.

Additionally, Pavano's recent history is blemished with injuries and an entire lost season, and that leads me to believe that the chances of his payday in arbitration being closer to $10 million than to $5 million aren't very high. But realistically, after the season he had in '09, I have little doubt that he could find a team willing to offer a two or three-year deal worth that $5 million...per year. If not more (I have some doubts about a continued suppression of spending in free agency this year). So in spite of the possibly lowered expectations on the free agent market and a guaranteed payday via the arbitration route, Carl will probably have the option of multiple years. Personally, that's not something I want to see the Twins take on.

It was a good move by Minnesota to make Pavano the offer, and oddly enough it puts them in a no-lose situation. If he accepts they'll get him for one year at what is likely to be a price that the team can easily absorb, and if not then the Twins receive a compensatory draft pick next June and the freedom to go after somebody else with that allocated cash. As long as this doesn't somehow turn into a multi-year, mega-millions fiasco, this is a good situation.

Twins, Washburn Continue to Make Eyes At Each Other

Jesse — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 00:13:31 -0000

More photos » by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

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Does anyone else feel like this one is inevitable?

The Twins had interest at the trade deadline this year. There were trade rumors involving the Twins and Washburn back in February. Back in August of '08, the Twins placed a waiver claim on Washburn and actually won it, but the Mariners in another moment of moron-mania screwed it up by asking Minnesota for one of their young starters instead of just taking the salary dump. This is a romance that's been brewing for an awful long time, and with the Twins seemingly on the verge of becoming a premier team in baseball with one or two more quality additions I have little doubt that Washburn will do whatever he can to don a Twins uniform.

Bill Smith has already dropped hints that the front office will be taking a look at the starting pitcher options on the free agent market. Washburn, apparently, fits the bill. He wants to be here, he qualifies as a veteran (he turned 35 in August), and he's been a lock for averaging six innings a start over the course of his career. Those are some pretty basic qualifications, but that doesn't mean they're bad ones.

As long as they're not the only ones.

I haven't made a secret of my reservations about having Washburn in a Twins uniform. Allow me to illustrate why using the simplicity of the numbers, in case you remain unconvinced.

Year	AGE	IP	GS	FIP	tRA	K/9	BB/9
2006	30	187.0	31	4.78	4.88	4.96	2.65
2007	31	193.2	32	4.77	4.81	5.30	3.11
2008	32	153.2	26	4.72	5.59	5.10	2.93
2009	33	176.0	28	4.58	5.21	5.11	2.51

To make sure we're on the same page: Washburn isn't getting any better as he gets older. Which should surprise absolutely nobody. In fact he's been on a steady decline for a couple of years, and his rebound in Seattle this summer (which I'll take a pit stop at in a moment) seems more like a blip on the radar than a sign of a late-career revival.

The best thing Washburn has going for him, apart from the fact that he should (note: should) cost less than some of the other free agent starters on the market this winter, would be his durability (at least 28 starts seven of the last nine years). But that should probably be a slight concern considering the problems with his knee at the end of the season, in spite of the arthroscopic surgery. It's just another red flag for a guy who:

Has averaged a strikeout-to-walk ratio of less than 2:1 over the course of his career.
Can lose control at any time; first of the strike zone, then of his emotions.
Is a flyball pitcher (bad for next year's outfield defense) who is going to give up more than his share of bombs.
Isn't likely to out-play Minnesota's current top starters (Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, possibly Nick Blackburn)

Washburn had a bit of a revival in 2009. Before his injury in Detroit he made 20 starts for Seattle and averaged 6.7 innings a go. His fastball was legitimately a good pitch for the first time since 2002, and his slider was better than it ever had been. He was stranding 80% of his base runners and opponents were managing a meager .249 BABIP. None of that is sustainable.

Conclusions

Where this gets tricky for me is when I know the answer to this question: does Jarrod Washburn make next year's rotation better? Because as long as he's healthy, he probably does. On paper, giving him 200 innings instead of Anthony Swarzak or Brian Duensing or Glen Perkins just might actually yield better results. And in that sense, he could make the Twins better by stengthening the back end of the rotation. We all know how the Twins like their depth.

Would it be a bad signing? Depending on the contract, probably not. I'm just hoping for something more.

I'll leave you with a conversation I had with a friend over Facebook.

Jesse wishes the Twins would stop flirting with Jarrod Washburn. STOP IT.

Ben: Dodgers are flirting with Smotz... Have you ever been at a bar, and your friend is SOOOOO wasted drunk that he's chatting up the ugliest chick in the bar? Do you see them touch hands? Maybe even noses? You try to stop him but he's too drunk to believe you? At least the twins are chatting up a hottie. Who cares if they are let down, at least they're trying. All my teams gonna get is a hang over, crabs, and a rude awakening come tomorrow.

Jesse: yeah but at least your friend is going after a cougar. i mean, at least she USED to be hot, right? the twins are just going after the girl because she's there...she's only a hottie because the twins just drank all the way through happy hour.

Ben: Point taken.

GM Meetings Day 2: Open Thread

Jesse — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:34:55 -0000

Check back periodically for updates...

4:00 pm: Afternoon updates from Joe C.

Congrats to Joe Mauer, who wins his second Gold Glove. Well deserved.
Apparently the GM's are expected to discuss intant replay? I had no idea. At any rate it hasn't been discussed yet.
Bonser, Neshek and Slowey have been reinstated from the 60-day DL.
Joe promises more tonight.

12:45 pm: Some news from around the league

It sounds like Jason Varitek will pick up his part of the option to stay with the Red Sox, which will be a favor to teams across the American League if he continues to hit like he has the last two seasons. Which he probably will. In related news, Tim Wakefield is never going to stop pitching. NEVER.
If the Twins want to put together a package for Roy Halladay to really make a run with an Ace in hand for 2010, it will have to be a package of "quality over quantity". Sorry, Cmath.
Lunch time trade question: would you trade Jesse Crain and Delmon Young to the Royals for David DeJesus? Is it a realistic scenario?

9:30 am: Catching up on the highlights from yesterday

• Carl Pavano wouldn’t mind sticking with the Twins as long as the money is right. Quotes from his agent, Tom O’Connell, imply that Pavano won’t settle for another contract asking for his client to re-establish himself. If he’d still be willing to take an incentive-laden contract at a reasonable price (say something like one year, $5 million with $500K for reaching 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200 innings) with an option for a second year, I’d do that. He’s a Type-B free agent, but I’m not sure he’d make more than that taking the arbitration route (which the Twins are sure to offer).
• Twins General Manager Bill Smith has mentioned there will be interest in free agent starting pitchers during the off-season. I have to believe that only three spots (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey) are locked down.
• It sounds like Ron Gardenhire wouldn’t mind bringin back Orlando Cabrera as the team’s second baseman next season, but it seems highly unlikely the front office would follow through on that.
• The Orioles claimed Armando Gabino off waivers.
• Justin Huber cleared waivers, paving the way for his possible return to Rochester (or the Twins) in 2010.
• Juan Morillo has been added to the 40-man roster, bringing the current tally to 33 (not including 60-day DL guys Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey, or impending free agents Ron Mahay, Mike Redmond, Joe Crede, Pavano and Cabrera).
• Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors has posted his yearly series where he guesses where the top 50 free agents will end up. He thinks Adrian Beltre (number nine on his list) will end up in Minnesota.
• Before the Twins snapped up J.J. Hardy, a number of other teams had been in contact with the Brewers, including the Red Sox, Reds and Blue Jays.

The Bottom Line: Twins Struggle to Hold Leads VS Yankees

Jesse — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 03:04:47 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano throws during the first inning of Game 3 of the American League division baseball series against the New York Yankees on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Twins 1, Yankees 4

Every game of this series saw the Twins take a lead. In game one it was 2-0. In game two it was 1-0...and then 3-1. Tonight it was 1-0, again. And with the exception of game one, which was all Yankees all the time after the top of the third inning, games two and three could have been won by the Twins if only they could lock it down.

Nick Blackburn pitched very well in game two. And back home, Carl Pavano pitched an absolute gem in game three. Pavano struck out nine Yankee hitters in seven innings, walked nobody and allowed just five hits. Sadly, two of those hits came in the top of the seventh, when Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada each went deep.

Ron Mahay, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares each walked a batter in the ninth, loading the bases for Joe Nathan with just one out. Nick Punto ignored a stop sign and was thrown out as he tried to dive back to third base. Jason Kubel upped his strikeout total to nine in the series. It's hard not to be a little bitter right now, to not have a sour taste in your mouth, but if you're looking to point a finger for the outcome of this series it can only be pointed at the team we love. And somehow, that makes it even worse.

It was a spectacular season. And that's all I'm going to say for tonight. No analysis, no name-calling, no wallowing in misery. The Minnesota Twins are the AL Central Division champions, and they played their tails off to earn that title. But the fact that I feel like I do only goes to show me how much this team means to me, and I already know that by tomorrow morning I'll be looking forward to the off-season, with the hope that next year...next year...might be the season we finally bring home the World Series trophy.

Congratulations to the New York Yankees, who advance to the ALCS. They made the plays they needed to make, and they took advantage of every single mistake the Twins made in this series. Which is exactly what you expect a championship-caliber team to do, big market or small markeet. Or mid-market, in Minnesota's case.

Thanks for a great season, everybody. I'll see you tomorrow.

Stars of the Game
Joe Mauer: Playing the role of MVP, Joe picked up the Twins' lone RBI of the night.
Denard Span: Two hits for the leadoff guy, along with a stolen base. Solid night.
Michael Cuddyer: A pair of hits for Cuddles, who also had a strong night.
Matt Guerrier: A big scoreless eighth inning.
Carl Pavano: Seven innings of fantastic ball, it was the best I've seen him all year. I definitely would like to see him back next season.

Tears
Nick Punto: After starting a rally with a leadoff double in the eighth, he ran through a stop sign from Scott Ulger on Span's chopper up the middle. It killed a rally the team desperately needed.
Brendan Harris: Hitless in big spots tonight.
Jose Morales: Looked overmatched at times; still looking forward to seeing him as Joe's backup next season.
Jason Kubel: Overmatched at all times. Nine strikeouts in the series with three more tonight. Extremely disappointing, sorry Patches.
Ron Mahay, Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares: Walking the bases loaded, with the team on the ropes. It doesn't get any worse than that, it really doesn't.

Respect
Alex Rodrigez: I hate the fact that you're such a great ballplayer. I liked him before he came to New York. Like a lot of players.
Andy Pettitte: Pitched a great game. One of the all-time great post-season pitchers.
Mariano Rivera: Continues to amaze, even at this point of his career. His buzz-saw of Mauer to end the Minnesota threat in the eighth was sick.

Poll

Where does your allegience lie for the ALCS?

New York Yankees

139 votes

Los Angeles Angels

274 votes

Actually, a team from the NL

92 votes

505 votes | Poll has closed

ALDS Pre-Game: Do Or Die...Again

Jesse — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 17:33:42 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

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A common theme, I feel.

Joe Mauer will be catching today, playing with a "hip flexor", which basically causes pain any time you try to flex a leg upward; kicking, lifting a knee, that kind of thing. So, really, not idea for your catcher. I'm thinking maybe DH'ing Mauer today, for his own good, would be for the best. With a four-man bench, two of them catchers, I feel it's a move that's pretty much made to order. This is also the kind of game where I'd trust Mike Redmond to come up with a big hit.
Montanatwinsfan noted this earlier, but with Matt Tolbert out due to an oblique strain Brian Buscher is taking his place of the playoff roster. Brendan Harris will get the nod at third base, and hopefully he can make a play or two like he did back in New York on Friday.
Jason Kubel needs to show up today. Four strikeouts in game two, which is just unacceptable by any measurement of success, showed exactly how overmatched he was. The bad news is that it's southpaw veteran Andy Pettitte on the mound, which means Kubel's contributions will be harder to come by. The good news is that pretty much any contribution is better than what he's given the Twins so far.
It's a good thing that Carl Pavano is getting a nod at home in the Dome. I can't imagine what kind of horrible reception he'd get had he started in New York. Not that he couldn't handle it, because I'm sure he could, but no doubt pitching in front of a crowd that's got your back will be much easier. Nick Blackburn managed to largely neutralize that great Yankee offense, and Carl will need to do the same.
It's hard to look at this series thinking "the Twins have to win three in a row" or "the Twins can't lose". You still have to take it one day at a time, because it's no use looking to tomorrow until you've won today. So that's how I'm looking at it: win today. Just win today. Then think about winning tomorrow. One game at a time.
Michael Cuddyer has homered off of Pettitte this year, in Minnesota's one shot at him. Carlos Gomez and Brendan Harris picked up multi-hit days. Justin Morneau went 4-for-4, but for some reason I think he's unavailable tonight.
The Yankees, meanwhile, have already seen Pavano twice this season, both times when he was with the Cleveland Indians. Mark Teixeira is the only Yankee with a homer off him, while Derek Jeter is the only Yankee with more than one hit off him.
I like what Bill Smith had to say in Sid Hartman's column today. No excuses, but with a real understanding of the situation:

"We like our team, we like our players. Any success we have is going to be through scouting and player development. We know we have a great manager and great major league coaching staff. We have a lot of good young players who have come through our system."

This could be the swan song for the Metrodome, but I'd like to play at least one more. Let's take down the Yankees tonight.

2009 MLB Playoffs: Day 3

Brendanukkah — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:14:55 -0000

Current Series

Yankees lead the series 1-0

Wed 10/07	WP: CC Sabathia (1 - 0) LP: Brian Duensing (0 - 1)	2 - 7 loss
Minnesota Twins Twinkie Town @ New York Yankees Pinstripe Alley Friday, Oct 9, 2009, 6:07 PM EDT Yankee Stadium Nick Blackburn vs A.J. Burnett Mostly cloudy,rain. Winds blowing from right to left field at 10-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 65. Complete Coverage >
Sun 10/11		7:07 PM EDT

The MLB Postseason goes on, despite this judge's choice of Matt Holliday in "Man Getting Hit in Groin by Baseball" as most outstanding work this postseason. The scrappy Twins try to win their first game all year against the Yankees behind Nick Blackburn. The Yankees counter with third-biggest free agent acquisition A.J. Burnett, making his postseason debut. This season's statistics would indicate that New York is the favorite, but bear in mind that the Yankees have not been up 2 games to none in a division series since 1999. Twins in an upset, sez I!

Current Series

Angels lead the series 1-0

Thu 10/08	WP: John Lackey (1 - 0) LP: Jon Lester (0 - 1)	0 - 5 loss
Boston Red Sox @ Los Angeles Angels Over the Monster Halos Heaven Friday, Oct 9, 2009, 9:37 PM EDT Angel Stadium of Anaheim Josh Beckett vs Jered Weaver Mostly clear. Winds blowing out to left field at 5-10 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 60. Complete Coverage >
Sun 10/11		12:07 PM EDT

The nightcap sees Big Game Pitcher Josh Beckett take on Regular Game Pitcher Jered Weaver. The Angels managed to do what cancer couldn't and beat Jon Lester in the first game, helping to get put all of Boston's postseason dominance over the lads from Los Angeles/Anaheim partially behind them. They can take a commanding two game lead with a win tonight. Beckett seems to shine when he's needed most, but the Sox offense looked mighty pedestrian against John Lackey. Weaver has shut down the Red Sox this year, posting an 0.66 ERA over 13 2/3 innings, and recording 12 strikeouts. Should be a good game, and I look for the Angels to put their boot on Boston's throat and keep them down while they're struggling.

Tuesday Rockpile: Bored Colorado Rockies force AL Central teams to battle for their amusement

RockiesMagicNumber — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 14:01:22 -0000

More photos » by Matt Rourke - AP

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As various Game 1's of the 2009 postseason draw near, Rockies fans find themselves in an interesting position: Watching 2 other teams have a play-in game for their playoff spot while already inside the gates of the postseason.

This is the second consecutive season where the Minnesota Twins have found themselves in a 1-game play in for the AL Central Division Title. Last season, Sox DH Jim Thome launched a solo shot off of Twins starter Nick Blackburn in the 7th inning which proved to be all the Sox needed, as starter John Danks pitched 8 innings of 2-hit ball, and closer Bobby Jenks pitched a scoreless 9th.

2 years ago, I hardly need remind anybody on THIS website, but just in case, Colorado rallied off of Padres closer Trevor Hoffman to win the NL Wild Card for just the second playoff berth in franchise history.

Other famous tiebreaker play-in games include the 3-game series in 1962 where the 103-win Los Angeles Dodgers were defeated by Don Larsen and the 102-win San Francisco Giants en route to an eventual 7-game loss to the New York Yankees, and a 1978 game not easily forgotten in the annals of baseball history thanks to one Yankee shortstop with a censored nickname.

via www.insidesocal.com

Feel free to discuss nostalgic baseball games while we're waiting to continue making our own history.

Meanwhile, back at the Mountain Ranch Club:

Rockies closer Huston Street revels in playoff atmosphere - The Denver Post
Boy, howdy are we glad we're in our situation and not in Philadelphia's. We have a solid setup man, closer, and while Franklin Morales may not be earning our love and favor recently, but he could still be the closer, you know. I know a lot of Santa-Claus-Booing, Battery-Throwing, Cheesesteak eaters who would love to be in our shoes in terms of back-end bullpen headcases. (For any Philly fans reading, I'm totally kidding about all that back there. I know you only throw change.)

Rockies Mailbag: Bring on the Phillies - The Denver Post
Troy Renck answers a few of the Rockies' faithful's questions regarding postseason eligibility, Dan O'Dowd's contract status, Ian Stewart's tough season, Eric Young Jr. 's baserunning troubles, and Troy Tulowitzki for Comeback Player of the Year. Why anyone asked for it for Tulo, I'll never know, but Todd Helton was far more deserving of it if it were to to a Rockies' player.

Krieger: Tough calls pressing in on Tracy - The Denver Post
Dave Krieger takes some time to talk about the Jason Marquis' role in the rotation, how to set the lineups, and pretty much everything we've been discussing ad nauseam since late last week.

Rockies' young hitters get into swing - The Denver Post

Jim Armstrong discusses Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez, the bright future ahead of them, and how versatile their play has been in getting the Rockies where they are now.

This Rocktober squad better than 2007 version - The Denver Post
Patrick Saunders examines the 2009 Rockies as compared to their 2007 counterparts and points out what's good, better, and ugly. Ok not ugly.

Click past the jump for some other MLB capsules.

J.P. Ricciardi, Kevin Towers, Fredi

Baseball's employment rate took a hit this week with the unsurprising firing of embattled Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi, the unexpected firing of Padres longtime GM Kevin Towers and the shocking development that Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez's job may not be completely safe.

Who Actually Had the Biggest Comeback in 2009? - Beyond the Box Score

BtBS busts out a little WAR loving to see whose 2 season swing merited them the Comeback Player of the Year award.

2009 Awards | FanGraphs Baseball

Not a lot of surprises as to who wins most of the awards here, but Fangraphs jumps the gun a bit and goes ahead and hands out their hardware before the postseason even begins.

The Giants had a few headlines today:

Giants exceeded expectations in '09 | SFGiants.com: News
The Giants' elimination from the postseason race, which became official Wednesday with Colorado's 10-5 victory over Milwaukee, did nothing to diminish the promise San Francisco showed while climbing into contention.

Free-agent-to-be Brad Penny enjoyed short stint with Giants - San Jose Mercury News
Penny enjoyed pitching on the West Coast again, and the Giants certainly enjoyed having him, despite not making the postseason.

Will Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean be retained next season? - San Jose Mercury News
I certainly hope so. I mean, I'd hate to see Tim Lincecum lose his arm to bad managing, but whatever, I want to keep winning, too.

Curtain call for best ever S.F. catcher?

Tricky article. John Shea cleverly dodges around Bengie Molina's godawful OBP while he makes a case for Bengie to be listed among all-time Giants great backstops.

Molina and the Giants need each other

Ray Rotto has some fond memories of the past 3 years of Bengie the Backstop, and ponders where the Giants could ever possibly find a studly offensive catcher to replace Bengie.....HMMMMM...

Full Count " The Market For Jason Bay

I always find it a bit tacky to discuss FAs before the postseason is over.

Mauer's MVP Beats Greinke's Cy Young, Twins Stave Off Comeback

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 00:12:08 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel, left, Michael Cuddyer, center and Joe Mauer, right, celebrate after scoring on a three-run double by Delmon Young off Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke in the sixth inning of a baseball game Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, in Minneapolis. It was the final series in the Metrodome. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 5, Royals 4

There are no shortages of heroes in Minnesota tonight. A four-run sixth disappeared, but today the Twins weren't going to be denied.

For five and a half innings, Zack Greinke and Nick Blackburn traded zeros. The game's first hit didn't even come until Orlando Cabrera led off the bottom of the fourth, but for more than half of the contest it was a beautiful pitcher's duel. Stressful? Yes. But beautiful.

The Twins finally drew blood in the bottom of the sixth. Nick Punto drew an eight-pitch walk off Greinke to lead off the frame, before Denard "ideal leadoff guy" Span dropped down a made-to-order bunt on the first pitch he saw. With LNP standing on second base, Greinke's pitches began to sit high in the zone. He managed to get Cabrera to ground out to third base, but he wasn't able to keep Punto from advancing. With two out and the game still knotted at zero, up stepped Joe Mauer.

Greinke tried to bust Mauer up and in twice, with Joe taking atypical chances and taking cuts on them both and fouling them off. A pair of sliders just under the strike zone followed, leading to a 1-2 count before Greinke tried to come up and in with another fastball. This time, Joe did exactly what he meant to. He pulled it through the right side, and Punto finally scored to give the Twins a 1-0 lead.

Then the Royals ace came off the rails, just a little bit. Jason Kubel took an outer-half fastball and shot it down the left field line, for a moment saving Greinke from a run as it hit the turf and then bounced over the fence, keeping Mauer on third base. Then he hit Michael Cuddyer with a 94-mph fastball. For the third time in two days, the Royals loaded the bases for Delmon Young.

Maybe Greinke was feeling confident. Maybe he just didn't locate the ball where he wanted it to go. Maybe he and Miguel Olivo were over-thinking their strategy. For whatever reason, Greinke served Delmon a 95-mph first-pitch fastball somewhere between the letters and the belly button, and as everyone's favorite play-by-play guy likes to say, he didn't miss it. Young went the other way, dropping the ball into right field, clearing the bases to give the Twins a 4-0 lead.

Kansas City stuck with their man, even after Jose Morales singled on the next pitch. Even Matt Tolbert swung at the first pitch he saw, and he hit it hard. But this time the ball was blind, and Minnesota's rally came to and end. So did Greinke's afternoon.

A Mike Jacobs homer in the top of the seventh put Kansas City on the board, but it was the eighth that, if you were watching or listening or at this game, should have put the fear of the baseball gods right into you. Olivo led it off with a double, signaling the end of Blackburn's night. Jose Mijares replaced him, and I'm starting to wonder if he's inside of his own head a bit after throwing at Adam Everett on Thursday. Alex Gordon took the third fastball he saw and deposited it over the right field fence, cutting Minnesota's lead to one. Another single saw Mijares get the hook for Jon Rauch, who did his job one batter too late.

Willie Bloomquist singled, moving something called Tug Hutlett to third with no outs in the inning. Rauch got Mitch Maier to roll into a double play, but it scored the tying run. The Metrodome fell silent, and if you weren't having images of whatever playoff hopes you had crashing down in your subconscious, then I envy you. For a game that looked so well in hand to fall apart so quickly, it didn't look good.

You know who didn't care? You know who said "Get on my back, I have broad shoulders and really big dimples and the bat of a hero"? Michael Cuddyer. The same guy who Greinke nailed two innings prior watched a pair of pitches miss the zone before he decided to take a chance. Dusty Hughes threw a changeup, as straight as it could possibly be, right over the plate at about Cuddyer's knees. Cuddles turned on it, and lauched it into the home run porch in left field. He breathed life back into the season, into the team, and into the fans.

Joe Nathan struck out a pair in a perfect ninth inning to pick up save number 47, and once again the Minnesota Twins have won. It's not over yet, kids. No matter what happens tonight, tomorrow matters. And if by some miracle the Tigers lose tonight, tomorrow matters even more.

Holy crap. Can they do this?

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-4, 2B, 3 RBI, .154 WPA)
#2: Nick Blackburn (7+ IP, 2 R, 5 K, 0 BB, .305 WPA)
#1: Michael Cuddyer (1-for-3, HR, RBI, 2 R, .245 WPA)

Now, It's Very Close: Twins 3, Tigers 2

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 20:45:07 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

Gerald Laird demonstrates one way to get on base, by stepping in front of the baseball. Unfortunately for the Tigers, that didn't drive in a run.

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Only one game now separates first place from second in the AL Central, as the Minnesota Twins took the first game of Tuesday's doubleheader from the Detroit Tigers, 3-2. You wanted a close race, baseball fans? The Tigers just accommodated you.

Do they have to be so accommodating? Maybe it's a Midwestern thing.

This one took on a familiar feeling of dread, as the Tigers just couldn't break through with some offense against Nick Blackburn. The squandering began from the very first inning, as no one could drive in Curtis Granderson after he hit a leadoff double. Detroit scored a run in the second, but really should've gotten more with two runners on and one out.

And on it went. In the third, the Tigers led off with runners on first and third, but couldn't drive either one in. In the fourth, they had a runner on second with one out, but couldn't put the ball in play. Those last two outs were part of 14 straight batters the Twins retired.

Minnesota finally broke through in the 10th inning against Brandon Lyon. Denard Span hit a leadoff single, and unfortunately for the Tigers, Lyon helped him around the bases with two wild pitches. With a runner on third and no outs, the Twins made sure they didn't blow the opportunity. Orlando Cabrera drove in Span with a single. Minnesota then manufactured its way to a second run with two walks (one intentional) and two sacrifices.

If only the Tigers could do that. It works so much better than ending an inning with a groundout.

With that, Detroit wasted a fantastic, playoff-worthy pitching performance from Rick Porcello. Kid Rick pitched into the seventh inning, giving up only one run and seven hits. He also only walked one batter. If anyone was wondering how the rookie would respond to some playoff-type of pressure, he answered affirmatively.

Unfortunately, the Tigers' lineup couldn't do the same. And how many times have we sang that tune this season?

Whimper:

Placido Polanco has had a fantastic September (.375/.422/.500 coming into today), so maybe his 0-for-5 this afternoon seems even more disappointing because of that. Polanco also left four men on base.

But really, you could close your eyes, point at anyone in Detroit's batting order, and probably find a player who didn't perform. Aubrey Huff, 0-for-3 (and three left on base). Carlos Guillen, 0-for-3. The opportunities were there to score runs, and Tigers batters didn't not seize them.

Purr:

The two guys who brought their bats to the park today were Curtis Granderson and Brandon Inge, who hit a combined 4-for-9. Grandy also cut the Tigers' deficit to one in the ninth inning with a homer off Joe Nathan. His hot streak continues. Inge, meanwhile, broke an 0-for-13 slump with his performance today.

Comment of the Day:

are we sure Saturday even happened?

by MackAveKurt

Twins Win Nail-Biter In 10: Delmon Young's Insurance Run the Difference

Jesse — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 20:13:18 -0000

More photos » by Paul Sancya - AP

No, listen, Nick, it was just a high-5. It meant nothing, please don't be mad. You have my heart. Give me yours.

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F10: Twins 3, Tigers 2

To use the words of fischean: One. 1. Uno.

If you wanted intense, hard-fought baseball, you got it. If you wanted big moments, pivotal mistakes and a fantastic pitcher's duel, you got that, too. Did you want a Twins win? Granted.

Nick Blackburn struggled through the first four innings, allowing the leadoff hitter to reach three of the four innings with two of those hits being a double. Yet every time the Tigers pushed, Nick pushed back. Eight base runners through the first four innings garnered the home team just a solitary run, thanks to some nice defense (a diving Orlando Cabrera and a scoop by ~~Justin Morneau~~ Michael Cuddyer) and a great play (Cuddyer to home, Joe Mauer blocking the plate and applying the tag).

Once Nick escaped the fourth, he sent down all nine hitters through his final three innings. Blackburn settled in and turned into the big game pitcher we needed him to be.

Down 0-1 in the top of the fifth the Twins finally managed to even the score, which may have helped to take the pressure off Blackburn a little bit. Matt Tolbert led off the inning with a double, earning him his new monicker: Tol-Bear. It's French. Nick Punto then attempted his first bunt of the game, a beauty, advancing Tol-Bear to third and nearly running out the throw to first himself. Denard Span-crush then allowed Tol-Beart to tag from third to knot the score.

The Twins threatened again in the top of the ninth before managing to momentarily delay the win. Alexi Casilla doubled to lead off the inning before Tol-Bear dropped down a great bunt to move him to third base. Gardy then called up the ol' squeeze play, and with Casilla already in full sprint Punto was forced to attempt a first-pitch bunt on a ball almost over his head. Popped up, Casilla doubled off third, tear off clothes gnash teeth and generally implode all over the television set.

Enter Jon Rauch being awesome, Span getting a base hit to lead off the tenth. Cue Orlando Cabrera not ending an inning but in fact giving the Twins the lead after Span advances on a wild pitch. Twice. Joe Mauer walking, Carlos Gomez putting down another successful Minnesota bunt and Delmon Young, oh yes Delmon Young, launching a ball in a lofty nature designed to score a sacrifice run. 3-1, Twins.

Of course Joe Nathan managed to make in interesting, allowing Curtis Granderson to smash a bomb before recording an out. But he locked it down and recorded save number 45, tying Eddie Guardado for the team record.

It's all down to one, for just a few hours. Next game in just over three hours, so relax now. While you can.

Stars of the Game
#3: Orlando Cabrera (1-for-5, BIG RBI, .118 WPA)
#2: Alexi Casilla (1-for-2, BIG DOUBLE, .149 WPA)
#1: Nick Blackburn (7 IP, 4 K, 6 H, 1 BB, 1 R, .321 WPA)