SB Nation - Nick Blackburn

Treatment Bound: A Minnesota Twins Preview

U-God — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 01:46:27 -0000

Is that bat going in or out? Either way, that's a creative use of sporting equipment.(AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

The first in a series of looks at the competition for the crown in the mediocrity that is the 2010 AL Central.

Dates we play them: 4/9-4/11 at home, 5/11-5/12 and 7/15-7/18 @ MIN, 8/10-8/12 at home, 8/17-8/19@ MIN, 9/14-9/16 at home

Offense: A potential lineup: Denard Span-CF, Orlando Hudson-2B, Joe Mauer-C, Justin Morneau-1B, Jason Kubel-DH, Michael Cuddyer-RF, Delmon Young-LF, J.J. Hardy-SS, Nick Punto-3B. Bench: Jim Thome-DH, Brendan Harris-IF, Alexi Cassila-IF, Wilson Ramos-C.

That is a lot of lefties. Span, Mauer, Morneau, and Kubel all live permanently in the first-base side of the batters' box, with Hudson and Punto getting the majority of their swings in as southpaws as well. Denard Span is yet another product of the vaunted 2002 draft class. He rejected a $2 million pre-draft deal from Colorado to go 9th overall and wound up slipping on down to the Twins at pick 20. Until 2008, it looked like he was never going to make it. he proceeded to dominate AAA that year and eventually took over duties in center last year from the hated and offensively-challenged Carlos Gomez. Span is an on-base machine with plus speed that hasn't translated into great success at stealing bases (70.6% success rate). He's not that great in center, but he's the best Minnesota has ready so its his spot. Oh, Orlando Hudson, greatest Sox second baseman of all time. How could you go to the land of 10,000 lakes? Perhaps he's a really big Craig T. Nelson fan. O-Dog is in the decline phase of his career, but has still yet to underperform a contract. He is a huge upgrade for the Twins, as his signing moves Alexi Casilla and his abysmal .301 career-OBP to the bench. Hudson will act as an old-school two-hole hitter. Joe Mauer is the best catcher in baseball. Seriously, he's a freak. Having one of the best pure hitters in the game as your catcher is a huge advantage. He still runs well, but doesn't steal as often as he used to. The power spike was extreme, but probably not a fluke. His average will go down this year, but will still be above .320. Justin Morneau is their other left-handed, MVP-award winning monster. The incredibly superstitious Canadian is a constant threat to go deep, without the high strikeout totals that tend to come with 30+ homer power. His back could be a major problem, as he missed the end of the season last year with a stress fracture in his back.

Jason Kubel finally broke-out last year, posting a .907 OPS. 2008 was his first season as a DH, and the switch seems to have agreed well with him. He will see some time in the outfield this season, spelling Delmon Young while Jim Thome breaks all of our hearts by mashing for the Twinks. That being said, I wouldn't be shocked if Jason tumbled back to Earth slightly next year. Michael Cuddyer is becoming Jermaine Dye. His bat is fantastic, but he really shouldn't be playing in right. Delmon Young is never going to live up to his hype and potential. The Rays absolutely robbed Minnesota when they managed to get Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza for him. The minor league numbers never translated to big league success and he's an absolute butcher in left. J.J. Hardy is a good bounce-back candidate, though he'll probably never look as good as he did in 2008 again. He has some pop and is above-average in the field. Nick Punto is a little guy who likes sliding head-first into first base. He has no power and very little ability to get on base in general. He is quick and solid defensively.

Pitching: A potential rotation: Scott Baker-RHP, Kevin Slowey-RHP, Carl Pavano-RHP, Nick Blackburn-RHP, Francisco Liriano-LHP

Not the sexiest of rotations. There isn't anyone in this rotation that is likely going to top 180 strikeouts or post an ERA lower than 3.70. Baker is the ace by default. He posts a solid K:BB ratio, but allows more flyballs than I would be comfortable with having the terrifying outfield defense he has supporting him. He relies heavily on his fastball and slider, occasionally throwing in a curveball or a changeup. If Slowey can rebound well from his season-ending wrist surgery, he could post some good numbers. He has the same repertoire as Baker, but tends to miss more bats. Glass Carl finally pitched more than 100 innings in a season for the first time since leaving Florida in 2004. He's fairly uninteresting, throwing a fastball, changeup and slider. If he can repeat last year's performance (3.7 WAR), that would be amazing. I don't see it happening. Nick Blackburn is a slightly above-average innings eater. He depends heavily on his defense, as he gets more groundballs than anything. Liriano is the most intriguing member. He terrorized the American League in 2006, but hasn't been able to find the same success since his Tommy John surgery in November of that year. His slider hasn't been nearly as effective as it used to be, and until he gets it back he won't be anything more than a fifth-starter. The always reliable Joe Nathan is not going to be pitching this year, as its just a matter of time until he makes his appointment with Dr. Andrews. This leaves an opening at the back of the bullpen that will most likely be filled by former Sox giant Jon Rauch, since he has closing experience.

Outlook: As has been the case for the past seven years, the Twins are once again in contention for the AL Central crown. However, injuries are a rather large potential problem for this team. Is Morneau's back fully healed? Can Joe Mauer's knees continue to support his massive frame? Will Jim Thome be able to stay in one piece without Herm? I don't know. I do know that the Twins will be the main competition for a playoff spot that the White Sox will see all season though. Sox win season series 11-7.

2010 AL LABR Draft Results: Larry Schechter From Sandlot Shrink

Ray Guilfoyle — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 20:00:31 -0000

Michael Dwyer - AP

5 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Jacoby Ellsbury, center, steals second base as Cleveland Indians' Jhonny Peralta looks for the call in the first inning of a baseball game, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

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Larry Schechter from Sandlot Shrink posted the results of his AL LABR draft:

C Buck	5
C Kendall	2
1B Kotsay	2
2B A. Hill	21
SS Bloomquist	2
3B M. Tejada	16
CI J. Bautista	6
MI Teahen	10
OF Ellsbury	34
OF Choo	24
OF Hunter	23
OF Gutierrez	18
OF Ankiel	4
UT Hafner	3

PITCHERS Greinke	30
Saunders	7
Danks	13
Bergesen	1
Blackburn	3
Aceves	2
JP Howell	4
Rauch	3
Rivera	27

RESERVES Guerrier
Hunter
Bannister
Balfour
Pedro Martinez
Wheeler

Larry's team is lacking power, but has plenty of speed. I do like his outfield of Ellsbury, Choo and Hunter, but if it was me, I am spending $34 on a power hitter rather than Ellsbury. But Larry is a Red Sox fan and he got his guy. Ellsbury was the highest auctioned outfielder in the AL LABR draft.

Larry can't go wrong with Greinke and Rivera anchoring his pitching staff, but I am not sure he has much else on his staff.

I am curious about the following: how Rick Ankiel performs in Kansas City? and if Aaron Hill can hit 30 HRs again in 2010.

Poll

Can Shin-Soo Choo go 25-25 in 2010?

Twins @ Orioles

Jon Marthaler — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 17:30:15 -0000

First Pitch: 12:05 PM

Nick Blackburn, newly weighted down by a bulging wallet, gets some work in today up in Sarasota. Lineups, via the great Joe C., after the jump.

TWINS
1. Ben Revere cf
2. Nick Punto 3b
3. Michael Cuddyer rf
4. Jason Kubel dh
5. Brendan Harris ss
6. Jacque Jones lf
7. Luke Hughes 2b
8. Chris Parmalee 1b
9. Drew Butera c

Pitchers: Kevin Slowey, Blackburn, Jose Mijares, Jeff Manship, Clay Condrey, Anthony Slama.

ORIOLES
1. Felix Pie lf
2. Adam Jones cf
3. Miguel Tejada 3b
4. Luke Scott 1b
5. Matt Wieters dh
6. Lou Montanez rf
7. Cesar Izturis ss
8. Craig Tatum c
9. Robert Andino 2b

Pitchers: Brian Matusz, Jim Johnson, Koji Uehara, Armando Gabino, Frank Mata, Ross Wolf.

Monday's Frosty Mug

Kyle Lobner — Mon, 08 Mar 2010 14:45:14 -0000

Ross D. Franklin - AP

A tarp covered the infield in Maryvale yesterday as Tom Haudricourt angrily tweeted about rain.

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Some things to read while bringing headphones.

Schedules have been shuffled around a bit today after yesterday's relatively rare Cactus League rainout. As you read this, the Brewers and Reds are likely preparing for a B game in Goodyear, where Adam McCalvy reports that Eric Arnett, Zach Braddock, Tim Dillard, Scott Schoeneweis and Chris Smith are scheduled to pitch. John Fay has the starting lineup and scheduled pitchers for the Reds. With that said, Tom H. was already worried about the weather last night.

Doug Davis, who was scheduled to pitch yesterday, pitched a simulated game instead to stay on schedule. Adam McCalvy has a profile of the returning Brewer, who turned his career around by rejecting an outright assignment from the Blue Jays.

Yesterday's Phoenix-wide rainout left a lot of people with some time on their hands. Some notes on the day:

John Fay noted that the Reds, who just moved from Florida, weren't rained out a single time last spring, and only twice in the last six years.
Keith Law said it's his first spring training rainout since coming to work for ESPN.
Jane Lee reported that the A's used the day off to race go karts.
Personally, I took advantage of the free time and wrote some stuff about the Badgers, reviewed a cheese grater and documented Tucson getting the last laugh.

Of course, these rainouts wouldn't happen if all the spring training parks had retractable roofs, like Miller Park. Maury Brown of The Biz of Baseball has a look at the rules governing the opening and closing of roofs and side panels (FanShot).

Through all the dark clouds, Ken Rosenthal was a rare ray of sunshine this weekend, with notes on why Prince Fielder should consider staying in Milwaukee and reasons why the Cardinals aren't a lock to win the NL Central.

Speaking of Fielder, reaction continues to trickle in from his HBP last week:

Mike Golic and Buster Olney came to Fielder's defense over the weekend.
Brewed Sports takes down last week's Cliff Saunders column in excellent fashion.
Perhaps most disappointingly, former Brewer Bob Scanlan weighs in in favor of baseball traditionalism, and wishes the Giants had sent someone who throws harder than Zito to exact revenge.

Once this morning's B game is concluded (or rained out) all attention will shift back to Maryvale, where the Brewers will host the Mariners this afternoon. Manny Parra won the coin toss and will start today's game, with Dave Bush scheduled to follow him in the spring's first FSWisconsin telecast. Doug Fister will pitch for the Mariners.

Sometime in the next day or two we'll probably see Trent Oeltjen return to action: an x-ray revealed there are no fractures in his wrist, and he should be back swinging a bat today. The news isn't quite as good for Josh Butler, who underwent a cortisone shot to relieve some inflammation in his elbow and will remain shut down for most of this week (FanShot)

With Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez and Corey Hart somewhat settled into starting roles, Jody Gerut most likely profiles as the team's fourth outfielder, but that doesn't mean he has to be happy about it. With uncertain expected production from Gomez and Hart, Gerut might get a fair number of opportunities to play this season.

Elsewhere in camp minutiae:

LaTroy Hawkins recently sat down with USA Today's Bob Nightengale and a handful of figures from around baseball to tackle some of the issues facing the game. Part 1 of the discussion focused on instant replay, the strike zone and pace of play. (h/t In-Between Hops)
Luis Cruz got married a few weeks ago and is expecting his first child in May.
George Kottaras talked to Tom Haudricourt about his experiences catching the knuckleball.
Cory Provus talked to Mark DiFelice, absent from the major league side of camp this spring as he works to rehab his surgically repaired shoulder.
Michael Hunt looks at the possibility the Brewers would leave Maryvale when their current lease expires, and doesn't think they should do it.

I think we've all got pretty high hopes for Ryan Braun this season. And That Happened has him on their CHONE All Star Team as the NL's third outfielder. Braun, projected to be worth 4.6 wins this season, joins Matt Holliday and Carlos Beltran. (h/t Beyond the Box Score)

Meanwhile, a lot of us are also pretty excited about Yovani Gallardo. Gallardo was profiled as part of Baseball Musings' Players A to Z series over the weekend, with David Pinto saying he could join Tim Lincecum and Adam Wainwright as a perennial Cy Young contender.

In the minors:

Jeff Zimmerman of Beyond the Box Score used a series of combined prospect rankings to establish another set of Farm System Rankings, and has the Brewers 22nd. Because this system only used top prospects, though, it likely underrated some of the depth in the low levels of the organization.
Bus Leagues Baseball has an organization-by-organization look at the best names in minor league baseball, and selected Maverick Lasker to represent the Brewers. (h/t Baseball Zealot)

Are you a Brewer fan that never finished eighth grade? If so, here's a reason to go back: Members of the Brewers will visit Milwaukee area middle schools on May 28 as part of the "S.C.O.R.E." program.

At the very least, it'd be a good excuse to take the day off from ticket scalping: The ticket resale bill has stalled in the state assembly, under concerns that the bill would make it harder for average fans to sell their tickets. Here's a quote from State Rep. Mary Hubler:

"The reality is that mom and pop from the family come with an extra ticket and they want to get rid of it. Why do we want to create lawbreakers?"

First off: mom and pop from the family? Where else would mom and pop come from? Secondly, though, if mom and pop are really that eager to unload the ticket, they'd be perfectly welcome to go sell in the resale zone (or on Craigslist or Ebay) with everyone else, instead of harassing passersby.

Around baseball:

Dodgers: Russell Martin is out 4-6 weeks with a groin strain and will most likely not be ready for Opening Day.
Giants: Emmanuel Burriss has a fractured foot and will be in a walking boot for at least four weeks.
Twins: Signed Nick Blackburn to a four year deal worth $14 million, buying out his arbitration years.

Another day, more bad news for Braden Looper. Brandon Webb's injury relapse may force the Diamondbacks to open the season with him on the DL, but Jerry Crasnick reports they'll fill the vacancy from within, and aren't interested in Looper or Jarrod Washburn. I'm guessing Looper is probably wishing he'd taken the Nationals' offer a month ago.

Even former Brewer Jim Gantner is more active than Looper at this point. Gantner spent the weekend at a health and sport expo in Park Falls.

Here are a couple of "slice of life" spring training stories from the weekend:

Joe Frisaro of MLB.com has a look at Marlins prospect Ozvaldo Martinez's spring: Martinez is lucky to be alive and healthy after being shot multiple times in Puerto Rico over the winter.
Corey Hart wasn't the only player to learn he needs a vision adjustment this spring: Braves outfielder Nate McLouth will be wearing contacts for the first time this season, and has a strong indictment of the Pirates' vision tests in the story.

I'm pretty sure the game would have been over a week ago, but if you're looking for an entertaining way to chronicle spring training cliches you could do worse than Lookout Landing's Spring Training Media Bingo.

Of course, we should pity beat writers for the miserable lives they lead being paid to tell others about baseball. As Craig Calcaterra noted on Twitter, one beat writer was overheard this weekend saying he'd rather work in a factory. I'm guessing he's never actually worked in a factory, and after a few days I'm guessing he'd be more than happy to go back to covering baseball.

Speaking of spring training cliches, Baseball Reference looks into the theory that switch hitters take longer to get going, since they have two swings to work on. They don't find much evidence.

And speaking of Twitter, John Fay has a look at how quickly it allows rumors to spread, citing a recent example involving the Reds, Gary Matthews Jr. and Buster Olney.

Looking to do something sabermetric today? Dave Allen of The Baseball Analysts details how you can acquire Pitchf/x data.

Happy birthday today to former Seattle Pilot and best-selling author Jim Bouton, who turns 71

That's all I've got for you today, unless you wanted Brewer Twitter FanFic.

Drink up.

More Than Meets the Eye: Twins Sign Nick Blackburn

Jesse — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 23:00:52 -0000

More photos » Tom Olmscheid - AP

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AdamOnFirst had this earlier today, so be sure to check there for additional discussion.

First, what we know: the Minnesota Twins have signed Nick Blackburn to a four-year, $14 million dollar contract. The deal buys out this season (Blackburn's final season as a serf) and all three of his arbitration years. There's also an $8 million option for 2014, which would be Blackburn's first year of free agency.

Oddly enough, a year ago tomorrow the Twins did the exact same thing for Scott Baker. In terms of dollars the deals are quite similar (Baker's was four years, $15.25 million with an option in 2013 for $9.25 million).

Over his first two full years in the majors, Blackburn has been a remarkably consistent pitcher. His ability to control his pitches and stay in command of his situation, in conjunction with his ability to consistently chew up innings, are where a majority of his value comes from. It's easy to undervalue skills like endurance and strike zone control, because anytime you rely on players hitting the ball to be a big part of your success as a pitcher you're playing with fire. But Blackburn has proven to this point that he can succeed on that margin.

In 2008, Nick was a 2.5-win player; last year he was a 3-win player. Barring injury, his value above replacement should continue to be in that range over coming seasons. Understanding that the value of a win above replacement being about $3.5 million, let's outline some parameters for expectations.

Split	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014*
Age	28	29	30	31	32
Value vs Free Agency	---	40%	60%	80%	100%
Expected $$ at 2.5 WAR	---	$3.5 MM	$5.25 MM	$7 MM	$8.75 MM
Expected $$ at 3.0 WAR	---	$4.2 MM	$6.3 MM	$8.4 MM	$10.5 MM

* = Option Year

In arbitration, the standard scale of compensation versus full value (or market value for a free agent) is 40-60-80, so that's where those numbers come from. They're just a guide. Therefore, if Blackburn is a 2.5-win player in 2011, 40% of his value would be $3.5 million. That's how you read the chart.

As of this writing we don't have numbers on Blackburn's new contract for his three arbitration-eligible seasons, but at a glance it looks like it's a pretty fair deal by baseball's financial climate today. Obviously the more wins he's worth over replacement, the bigger bargain this deal becomes.

Obviously the Twins didn't need to do this. Not just because Blackburn is under team control for the next four seasons, but because Minnesota was already thrust tightly up against their payroll threshhold for this coming year. The second half of that sentence is what seperates the Blackburn deal from the Baker deal a year ago. So why did the Twins make this decision?

Cost certainty. Because of Joe Mauer.

Twins Assistant General Manager Rob Antony said it himself in our Q&A two weeks ago:

J: Not wanting to go with more than a one-year deal [with any of the incoming free agents], did that have a direct correlation with the change in the revenue sharing stream that comes in now that you have your own stadium?

RA: No, I think it has more to do with not knowing how much our All-Star catcher's going to cost in the future.

J: (laughs)

RA: (laughs) So it's hard to commit substantial dollars to other players, aside from what we've already committed to the Morneaus and the Cuddyers and the Nathans, and players down the road. We're just trying to maintain as much flexibility as we can so we don't cut ourselves short on that one.

Also, this in response to a question on the organization's philosophy on spending:

Now the projected revenues are obviously going up in Target Field, and so we basically looked at it and said you know what--we've got about $90 to $93 [million] to work with, and we were at that. When Orlando Hudson became available our owner basically said "Don't worry about the payroll, if you think we can get this guy and you think he would be a great addition, let's go".

This means two things. First, it means that the Twins were already at or above what they wanted to spend before they brought in Orlando Hudson. So why throw on another few hundred thousand dollars when you just as easily could have waited until after the season to cut this deal? Because of number two, which is that the Twins wanted some payroll flexibility.

In this situation, payroll flexibility and cost certainty are the same thing. With the organization trying to hammer down exactly "how much our All-Star catcher's going to cost in the future", the best way to maintain some level of flexibility is to understand exactly how much you're spending on payroll in coming years. Down to the dollar. Instead of waiting it out with Blackburn in arbitration next season, the front office is getting a better idea of future finances.

Extending Joe Mauer is a big deal. Even for the Twins, whose revenue will suddenly become top ten in baseball, having a player make more than $20 million (for the first time in franchise history) is a hugely, massively big deal. The more accurately future blueprints are laid out, the better position this team will be in to adapt in coming seasons.

Blackburn deserves this extension, and although long-term contracts for pitchers are always risky, as long as he's healthy this is a good deal. I just think there's more to it than meets the eye.

Twins sign Nick Blackburn to four-year extension

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 20:43:58 -0000

More photos » Nam Y. Huh - AP

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The Twins and pitcher Nick Blackburn have agreed to a four year extension worth 14 million dollars, according to SI.com. The deal includes a club option for 8 million dollars.

Blackburn put up virtually the same numbers from 2008-2009, going 22-22 with a 4.04 ERA in 66 starts. Blackburn is proving to be a true workhorse, making him a great number three starter down the road.

Blackburn was taken by the Twins in the 29th round of the 2001 draft.

Red Sox 2, Twins 1

Jesse — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 08:50:44 -0000

More photos » Nati Harnik - AP

13 days ago: Minnesota Twins' Jacque Jones, left, catches a fly ball hit by Boston Red Sox's David Ortiz in the first inning of a spring training baseball game in Fort Myers, Fla., Thursday, March 4, 2010. At right is Twins' Denard Span. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)

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Oh, the agonizing pain!

Okay, not really. But it was surprisingly tight, and especially after looking at Boston's lineup I was certain it'd finish closer to 5-1.

Nick Blackburn (2 IP, 1 H), Kevin Slowey (2 IP, 1 H, 2 K) and Pat Neshek (1 IP, 1 K) combined for five scorless innings to lead off the game before Mike Maroth (1 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 R) allowed the Red Sox to tie the game at one. Kyle Walrop pitched a perfect seventh with Jose Lugo allowing a run in his inning of work which would be the difference maker.

The Twins did take an early lead, with Denard Span leading off the game with a single. He scored who batters later on Jaso Kubel's single off of Josh Beckett. Kubel, Brian Dinkelman and Brock Peterson took a walk each in the contest, while Michael Cuddyer and Luke Hughes also added a single each.

It's always hard to say somebody really struggled at this point, but Maroth and Lugo probably would have liked to have done better. Jacque Jones struck out once in two at-bats and stranded two runners. On the plus side the pitching was generally strong, Kubel had a good few innings and...most importantly...nobody got hurt.

And we're one day closer to the regular season!

Possibly Positive Counter-Point: The Royals Can Be the Twins

Will McDonald — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 19:26:00 -0000

After writing on Sunday about the somewhat disappointing state of the Farm System under Dayton Moore, I had initially planned to write a followup post laying out my central concerns with the future of the Royals. As I worked on that, a counter-argument started forming in my mind.

Namely, there's no reason why the Royals can't be the Twins.

I kept coming back to the Twins because they share with the Royals a number of frustrating circumstances:

Although the Twin Cities is not actually a "small market" the Twins have operated under stingy ownership and have typically been in the bottom third of the league in payroll. (Although in recent years this has changed a bit and they're currently projected to be around 14-15th for 2010.) If you were going to pick one ownership group that was most similar to what the Royals have, you'd probably pick Minnesota's.
When it comes to player evaluation, strategy, etc. the Twins are a very traditional organization. They get an inordinate amount of praise for "doing things the right way" and while from this perspective this is both way over-stated (they were fundamentally horrible against the Yankees in the playoffs) and sometimes counter-productive, we can easily imagine the Royals of the next decade behaving the same way. Every year, it seems like the Twins are doing something with their roster that the analysts that I trust just think is preposterous. Remember this was the organization that produced a three year internet meme of "Freeing Johan Santana" and allowing him to start games. Although they've improved in this regard in the last three years or so, the mid-decade Twins were often their own worst enemy. I see the Royals, even if they got good, always being like that.
The Twins have not been especially effective with valuing other people's talent. At the very best, they've broke even when it comes to free agent signings and trades. The Twins of the middle of this decade produced some free agent signings that were straight out of Dayton's greatest hits (Ruben Sierra, Sidney Ponson, the increasingly terrible Delmon Young trade). Even when they've been good, the minor moves the Twins make to round out the roster are often bizarre old options. This will be us someday!

Despite those limitations the Twins have produced elite talent (Mauer, partially Santana, Morneau) and an endless stream of generic but valuable position players and back of the rotation guys. Do you like junkballers with non-threatening names out of the 1950s? Allow me to introduce you to Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins. Between 2002 and 2006 the Twins had a Top 10 System according to BA which has produced enough organizational depth to allow the Twins to compete in the Central. Actually, it was more like Top 5: over those years the Twins ranked 6-4-5-4-6.

Essentially, I think the absolute upside for the Royals under Dayton Moore is to become the Twins. Here's what the Twins have done since they've gotten good:

Year	Record	Central Rank
2001	85-77	2nd
2002	94-67	1st
2003	90-72	1st
2004	92-70	1st
2005	83-79	3rd
2006	96-66	1st
2007	79-83	3rd
2008	88-74	2nd
2009	86-76	1st

(For 2008 and 2009 I listed their record through 162 games, although MLB considers the one-game playoff to be a regular season game.)

The line you often hear about the Twins is that "they'll always be there" and to some extent that has been true. That being said, since 2006 the Twins have been hindered by their limitations, only to be partially saved by virtue of the Central being lame. And although the '00s Twins started out with an upset victory over Oakland in the 2002 Playoffs, they've gone 3-16 in post-season play since (or 4-17, if you want to count the one game playoffs).

(The A's got absolutely murdered by the mainstream media for four straight playoff series, but those were all 5-game classics against extremely good Yankee and Red Sox teams.)

A part of me wants to consider the lack of post-season success just bad luck, while another believes its indicative of some larger limitation. Perhaps the scariest Twins team of the decade was the '06 squad, that one 96 games in a good Central (Detroit and CWS both won over 90 games) and played something like .700 ball over the last three months to win the division. And that team got swept out of the playoffs by... Oakland. The Twins have had some bad luck, or perhaps, they've never had really good luck in the playoffs. They've also usually been the third or fourth best AL team in the playoffs, which I think has been largely reflected in their 6-18 record. But they've been there a lot, which is really all that matters. I look at the Cardinals as the best example of this: probably their 5th best team of the decade was the one that ended up winning the World Series.

Trying to look ahead at the next five years is difficult. Here's a general impression: the Twins will be the Twins, the Indians will get better, Detroit and Chicago can go in multiple directions. The Royals have a long way to go, and when they get to that Twins level (if they do) it might not be good enough. It might. But it might not. The Twins have finished second quite a bit, after all.

So in sum, I think that this can be our upside: a really solid, mostly consistent, pretty good team. A team that will generate an inordinate amount of media praise. A team that will be taken to represent pure baseball virtue.

All that the Royals need to do is have a Top 5 farm system for half a decade. Get there, and they can win 80-90 games depending on how things shake out and how smart the rest of their decisions are.

Pitchers and Catchers Report Today!

Jesse — Sun, 21 Feb 2010 15:37:12 -0000

More photos » Ed Andrieski - AP

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You hear that?

It's the sound of basballs popping into leather gloves. And it's glorious.

So it begins--the first official day where you can actually see the end of cold, dark winter days. A few guys have been in Florida for the weekend already, if not parts of last week. But today? Be there or be square. Position players reporting is just hours away...

La Velle wrote last night that Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Joe Nathan, Carl Pavano, Matt Guerrier, Kevin Slowey, Brian Duensing, Pat Neshek, Jon Rauch and Jesse Crain all arrived early to camp. J.J. Hardy (minus some Joe Mauer bromance this weekend), Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Michael Cuddyer and Orlando Hudson have already reported as well.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Payroll

Jesse — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 13:04:39 -0000

Now that all the arbitration figures are in, let's see how payroll breaks down for this summer so far, shall we?

Be sure to hit the FanPosts, where DJSkillz has already started the conversation.

Findings after the jump...

Position	Player	'10 Salary (MM)
C	Joe Mauer	$12.5
1B	Justin Morneau	$14
2B	Nick Punto	$4
3B	Brendan Harris	$1.45
SS	J.J. Hardy	$5.1
LF	Delmon Young	$2.6
CF	Denard Span	$0.45 (e)
RF	Michael Cuddyer	$8.5
DH	Jason Kubel	$4.1
Total		$52.7

That's already about 78% of last year's payroll. And when was the last time the starting nine had only one player making less than a cool million?

Pos	Name	'10 Salary (MM)
IF	Alexi Casilla	$0.43 (e)
IF	Matt Tolbert	$0.42 (e)
C	Jose Morales	$0.42 (e)
OF	Jason Pridie	$0.40 (e)
Total		$1.67

I've never been opposed to running a team on a budget. Which is definitely what the Twins aren't doing this year. But this, if nothing changes from here to opening day, will be your bench. There are a couple of things to be excited about, but there's not too much you'd want to rely on for a long stretch of time if anyone gets hurt. Bench depth is still an issue, although it would be helped greatly by bringing in a versatile fourth outfielder, and a second or third baseman that would shift Punto or (more likely) Harris to the bench.

Pos	Name	'10 Salary (MM)
SP	Scott Baker	$3
SP	Kevin Slowey	$0.45 (e)
SP	Carl Pavano	$7
SP	Nick Blackburn	$0.45 (e)
SP	Francisco Liriano	$1.6
Totals		$12.5

Over the next couple of years this rotation will get incrementally more expensive--in fact if the young four are still around in three or four years, this could be a very expensive rotation.

Role	Name	'10 Salary (MM)
CL	Joe Nathan	$11.25
SU	Matt Guerrier	$3.15
SU	Jose Mijares	$0.42 (e)
RP	Jesse Crain	$2
RP	Jon Rauch	$2.9
RP	Pat Neshek	$0.625
Long	Glen Perkins	$0.44 (e)
Totals		$20.365

It might be worth looking up to see how this ranks in terms of the most expensive bullpen in baseball.

Position Players: $52.7
Bench: $1.67
Rotation: $12.5
Bullpen: $20.365

Total: $87.235

Of course that total doesn't include guys like Brian Duensing or Clay Condrey (who signed for $900,000), but it's a pretty accurate starting point for where we sit right now. If this total is accurate, are the Twins done?