SB Nation - Carlos Ruiz

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 4

raygu — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Here is the last part of the 4 part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times. Derek provides some insight into his top 5 rankings and some early sleepers for 2010:

Fake Teams: Are there any statistics that you use to evaluate hitters or pitchers that aren't mainstream yet?

Derek Carty: Absolutely. As I've talked about a little bit already, there are some that aren't even super well-known in the sabermetric community because, well, I invented them myself and they aren't really readily available yet. I absolutely love CAPS, David Gassko's LIPS ERA is great, and True Home Runs for hitters is a favorite of mine as well. Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix's xBABIP is great too. And of course, things like BABIP and HR/FB and LOB% aren't really mainstream, but they are pretty well-known in the sabermetric community and are certainly important to look at.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: Do you prefer auction leagues or straight draft leagues? Mixed or NL/AL-only leagues?

Derek Carty: Auction, without a doubt. It gives everyone a chance at every player and, I feel, allows you to be more creative with how you construct your team and with how you plan your strategy. I used to be a 100% in favor of mixed leagues over AL/NL-only (in theory), although LABR has swayed my opinion a bit (it was the first AL/NL-only league I ever played in). Still, I would have to lean towards something like a 14 or 15-team mixed league, given my druthers. I just feel that one or two big injuries to an AL or NL-only team can derail any hope of a championship, in some instances, and we really are in the infantile stages of trying to predict injuries, so it's not as if some of us can even gain much of a competitive advantage in the area. I was actually quite lucky in LABR this year when it came to the health of my players, which has surely colored my opinion of this league setup a bit. Aside from losing Ramon Hernandez for most of the year and Raul Ibanez, Rich Harden, and Carlos Ruiz for a few weeks, my team stayed pretty healthy. In other leagues, I wasn't as lucky. In the FSIC, for instance, Jose Reyes killed us (although we did manage to finish in second despite a Reyes/Garrett Atkins combo for our first two picks). I think a 15-team mixed league is a pretty good depth and minimizes the amount of luck involved.

Fake Teams: An early look at 2010-who is your top 5 players in NL-only leagues? AL-only leagues? Mixed?

Derek Carty: This'll have to be very early since I haven't completed my projections yet or really tried to make any 2010 predictions, but here's how I'm currently feeling (completely subjectively and without seeing some of the more in-depth numbers I like to look at).
NL: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) Ryan Braun, 5) Matt Kemp
AL: 1) A-Rod, 2) Mark Teixeira, 3) Miguel Cabrera, 4)Evan Longoria, 5) Joe Mauer
Mixed: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) A-Rod, 5) Ryan Braun

Fake Teams: If you have done this analysis, who are a few sleepers for 2010?

Derek Carty: I haven't really done this analysis yet, so I'll probably have some very different names when asked in a month or two. For now, let's go with Ian Stewart, Julio Borbon, Eric Young Jr., Dallas McPherson (consider him the next Russell Branyan if he finds playing time), Koji Uehara (potential Baltimore closer, though he could succeed as a SP as well), Brett Andersen, and Jorge de la Rosa. And, of course, whether someone is truly a sleeper or a value pick is entirely dependent on context. He'll only derive value if you take him in a round later than where you believe he truly belongs.

Fake Teams thanks Derek for taking the time to answer these questions for our readers.

Phillies sign Brian Schneider

Eli Greenspan — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 17:27:37 -0000

More photos » by Seth Wenig - AP

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The Phillies have signed catcher Brian Schneider, SI.com's Jon Heyman is reporting. Schneider, a career .251 hitter, played in just 59 games with the Mets last season.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Schneider	59	170	11	37	11	0	3	24	18	21	0	0	.218	.292	.335

Schneider will likely back up for starter Carlos Ruiz. Ruiz played well for the Phillies last season, especially in the postseason, and has a good relationship with his pitchers. Schneider is an excellent clubhouse player who has spent his entire career in the NL East, a total of 10 seasons with the Expos, Nationals, and Mets.

Three Up, Three Down: Reasons The Phillies Will Win (or Lose) Tonight

David S. Cohen — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 19:03:43 -0000

The Phillies faced their first elimination game in two years on Monday night and prevailed. Can they do it again tonight? Here are three reasons they will, and three reasons they won't:

The Good

1) Road Warriors. The Phillies were tied with the Angels for the best road team in baseball this year. The Phillies went 48-33, with a +70 run differential away from CBP this year. The Phillies have played five games at Yankee Stadium so far this year, and have outscored the Yankees 22-15. Their record at Yankee Stadium is 3-2 in those five games, but the two losses were incredibly close, one coming on a Brad Lidge blown save and another despite Pedro Martinez's gem last week.

2) Rested and ready. Despite some criticism, Charlie Manuel's decision to keep his pitchers on normal rest could pay off huge. Pedro Martinez, on 5 days rest, is going up against Andy Pettitte, on 3 days rest. Martinez has always been at his best when he's on regular 4 or 5 day rest. When he gets too much rest, 6 days or more, his game suffers. Batters hit him better (a .070 jump in OPS on his career, about a .200 jump this year) and he gives up more runs (his ERA jumps about 1.00 on his career, about 3.00 this year). Martinez is in his sweet spot going on 5 days rest. On the other hand, Pettitte will be challenged on 3 days rest. For his career, Pettitte is only slightly worse on 3 days rest compared to regular rest. But, here's the rub -- he hasn't pitched on 3 days rest since 2006, when he was 34. The body works differently at 37.

3) Righty power. The Phillies right-handed hitters can demolish Pettitte. Even though Pettitte had a small reverse platoon split this year (.730 OPS for lefties, .717 for righties) and just a very small platoon split for his career (.728 OPS for righties, .711 for lefties), the Phillies righties have demolished Pettitte in the past. It's all on the small to miniscule sample size end of the spectrum, but the results have been great. Including the post-season, Jayson Werth has a .188/.188/750 line with 3 home runs in 16 plate appearances, Pedro Feliz has a .300/.462/.400 line in 13 plate appearances, Ben Francisco has a .400/.500/.400 line in 6 plate appearances, and Carlos Ruiz has a .500/.667/1.250 line in 6 plate appearances. The Phillies' switch hitters have not done well but have held their own against Pettitte, with Shane Victorino posting a .375/.333/.375 line in 9 plate appearances and Jimmy Rollins a .250/.286/.400 line in 21 plate appearances.

The Bad

1) Hometown heroes. The Yankees had the best home record in baseball, at 57-24. Since July 1, the Yankees are even better, with a 35-10 record at home. They'll be returning to their home crowd with a chance to win their first World Series at home since 1999. For most franchises, that's not that long of a time between opportunities. For Yankees fans, that's three lifetimes.

2) Lefty troubles. It's been well documented how poorly the Phillies' lefties not named Chase Utley have performed this Series. It gets worse when you look at how they've performed historically against Pettitte. Ryan Howard and Chase Utley have a combined 2 singles, 8 strikeouts, and 1 walk against him in 23 career plate appearances. Raul Ibanez has been better, but not much. Thanks to playing most of his career in the AL, he has 25 plate appearances against Pettitte, in which he's put up a .250/.280/.417 line with 1 home run, 7 strikeouts, and no walks.

3) DH. Shane Victorino will be a game time decision tonight. If he's not able to make it because of his sore finger, the Phils will be forced to play Francisco in center, keep Ibanez in left, and DH either Eric Bruntlett or Matt Stairs. Bruntlett has had a truly awful year this year, and Stairs has been a non-existent hitter since July 1 (.082/.274/.245 line for the last three months of the season). They are a combined 0 for 10 lifetime against Pettitte. With the DH adding Hideki Matsui to the Yankees' lineup, if the Phillies counter with Bruntlett or Stairs, they're in big trouble.

The Outcome

With six hours to go until game time, these are the important factors that could influence this game. All in all, I think Pettitte's short rest combined with the righty dominance the Phillies have shown over him will win the day, and we'll see a Game 7 battle tomorrow night. Here's hoping....

A happy day in the Yankee Universe

Ed Valentine — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 12:47:02 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

The New York Yankees celebrate after beating the Philadelphia Phillies 8-5 in Game 3 of the Major League Baseball World Series Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in Philadelphia. The Yankees take a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series.

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Life is good as a New York Yankee fan this morning. A 2-1 World Series lead with CC Sabathia heading to the mound tonight -- against Joe Blanton instead of Cliff Lee.

Let's cruise the Inter-Google while we celebrate the Game 3 victory, and see what is being said Around the Yankee Universe.

New York Daily News media critic Bob Raissman was highly critical of FOX for their reporting -- or lack of reporting on the Alex Rodriguez home run that resulted in the first-ever World Series replay reversal. The camera, of course, belonged to FOX -- a fact that was never mentioned. The other question is, of course, why would the network stick a camera in a place where it could interfere with play?
Mike Lupica has plenty of praise for Andy Pettitte this morning, after Pettitte perservered through six difficult inning.

None of it (the comeback) happens if Andy Pettitte doesn't stand in there against the Phillies, like a hitter standing in against the curve. There have been what feel like a hundred October nights when he had more fastball and more stuff than he showed you against the Phillies in Game 3, those three runs in the first two innings, two home runs by Jayson Werth, the second one a monster shot that went off the facing of the upper deck at Citizens Bank Park.

He pitched six innings, gave up five hits, struck out seven, gave up the two home runs. It does not look like a lot. It was. On this night, the night when the Yankees were trying to get ahead and then give the ball to CC Sabathia, Pettitte was as much a champion Yankee as he has ever been. He needed 17 minutes and 24 pitches to get out of the bottom of the first. He threw over to first eight times after Jimmy Rollins singled. He saw Rollins steal second without even drawing a throw from Jorge Posada. It is supposed to be easier stealing from an armored car.

While Pettitte is drawing praise today, Philadelphia starter Cole Hamels is mostly drawing scorn. Including a 'WTF were you thinking?' reaction to that fifth-inning curveball he threw to Pettitte that resulted in a game-tying single. The following is from SI.com's Tom Verducci, and it probably sums up the reaction of Philly fans and knowledgeable baseball people.

If Game 3 is the turning point of the World Series -- 68 percent of teams up 2-1 go on to win it -- then a Yankees championship began with one pitch from Cole Hamels that will be remembered as one of the great gaffes in recent Series history. The beginning of the end for Philadelphia was a first-pitch curveball Hamels threw New York pitcher Andy Pettitte with no understanding of basic baseball. When Pettitte stepped in, Hamels was working with a 3-2 lead, a runner at second base and -- here's the key part -- one out. Pettitte is a career .134 hitter who has come to bat a total of 12 times over the past three years. Hamels could dispose of him with fastballs, the way J.A. Happ would do the next inning, and he would be one out away from being out of the inning. Instead, Hamels threw a first-pitch curveball up, and Pettitte slapped a single to tie the game. Why in the world would he throw something slow -- and up, no less -- to an American League pitcher? "I made the right pitch to Pettitte," Hamels explained. "A pitcher doesn't hit an oh-and-oh curve in a bunting situation." I was incredulous. I had to follow up, and asked him, "Just to clarify, you thought Pettitte was bunting, so you threw a breaking ball up to try to get him to pop up a bunt?"

"Yes," Hamels said. "That's what I get my fair share of the time when I'm bunting. He swung and got a hit. Baseball is very, very difficult to understand sometimes." Hamels emphasized his point by way of explaining he missed location only once, on a fastball to Johnny Damon that became a two-run double that inning. Hamels clearly did not regard the pitch to Pettitte as a mistake. I couldn't believe it. There is no way Pettitte is bunting there. There is virtually no advantage to be gained from moving a runner from second to third and be left with two outs. With no outs, it's an obvious bunt situation. One out? The pitcher swings away, because even if he strikes out, you still have a runner in scoring position with two outs, and on all but rare occasions the runner will be sent home from second on a single. So you have nothing to lose by letting the pitcher swing away. It's Baseball 101.

After a day off, Nick Swisher came up huge for the Yankees Saturday night.

"Skip [Joe Girardi] sat me down the other day and said, 'Hey, just relax. I want you to just watch this game, enjoy this game,' " Swisher said. "And then we talked about some stuff after the game. But I think it really helped me mentally, not necessarily physically because right now you're such on Cloud Nine because you're playing in the World Series and you don't really feel anything.

"But it was nice for my head to just rest and enjoy that game, and especially for us to win, that was great."

After watching him surrender a ninth-inning home run to Carlos Ruiz, Ken Davidoff wonders what the Yankees will do with Phil Hughes the rest of the Series.

You have to wonder what sort of role Hughes, sporting a 10.80 ERA in eight postseason appearances, will play the rest of the way. If Girardi doesn't trust him to get two outs before surrendering three runs, that doesn't speak much for the manager's confidence.

It is a fair question. My guess is that you will see more David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain. SI.com's Jon Heyman got this tidbit about Hughes from a scout. "He looks frightened, he doesn't look the same."

Other Yankee Doodles

Swisher, Melky Cabrera get back at raucous Philly fans.
Steve Serby hs a Q&A with former Yankee hero Paul O'Neill.
MLB Trade Rumors discusses Hideki Matsui's future.

World Series Batting Order Optimizer: Philadelpha Phillies

devil_fingers — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 17:44:19 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley, right, arrives at Penn Station with his wife, Jen. He's leading off up the escalator, so I don't see why he can't lead off at a baseball game as part of the World series. Note the relatively modest use of product in his hair. Maybe playing the Yankees in New York brings it out of him.

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Game One of the 2009 World Series ended with the Phillies (mainly Cliff Le) dominating the Yankees in a complete game. The batting order for the Yankees didn't quite match what I recommended for them yesterday, but we hardly expected that, did we? The Phillies have some very good hitters, although not quite as good overall as the Yankees. There is a definiitely dividing line between the really good hitters (Utley, Howard, Werth) and the others. (But it's worth keeping in mind, well-known-on-line-"sabermetric"-analyst-who-shall-go-nameless, that most of the less skilled Philadelphia hitters justify their playing because of their excellent defense. Also, stop using VORP.) The heavily-left-leaning nature of the core of the Phillies offense also poses a challenge. But hey, there's the easy way, and then there's the cowboy way... And it's nice not to have a lousy lineup to optimize. So here we go, it's late and I want to get this done before the World Series ends.

I'll leave out the usual incredibly long methodological preface that is on the other posts (again, see yesterday's post if you want to read it all). And definitely make sure you look it over before you complain about something. Keep in mind that these projections aren't mine, they're the 2010 Bill James projections. Yes, they're a bit goofy (particularly for the Phillies), but they're the only completely set I have at the moment. They get the job done well enough. Before we get started adjusting for platoons and everything, here are the unadjusted Phillies projections. I've calculated the wOBA myself, and the baserunning (EqHAR from BP) and double-play rate projections are also crude homemade projections.

Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.332	.260	.344	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.399	.278	.372	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Chase Utley	2B	L	.380	.290	.384	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.304	.253	.296	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.349	.270	.340	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Jason Werth	RF	R	.371	.269	.369	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.337	.269	.339	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8

And away we go...

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. RHP w/DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Chase Utley	2B	L	.390	.290	.393	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.358	.270	.348	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Jason Werth	RF	R	.365	.269	.362	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.410	.278	.381	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.332	.269	.333	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.327	.260	.338	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.299	.253	.291	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: I'm sure you've noticed a crazy thing in there. But I stand by hitting Francisco in front of Ruiz. Of, what, it's not that? Utley hitting first seems crazy? Well, this whole thing is crazy. You want the best guys hitting #1, #2, and #4. However, as with other teams, all the Phillies best hitters vs. RHP are lefties, and you want to avoid stacking them so that the opposition can't leveraeg a lefty-reliever against them, as the Yankees did with Damaso Marte vs. Utley and Howard last night (obviously, it didn't decide the game). Also note that Chase Utley is good at everything. Maybe it will take a 2 HR performance against the Yankees in the World Serie for people to notice what a badass this guy has been and continues to be. He plays second base. He's one of the best (and possibly the best) defenders at that position in the majors, even after his offseason hip surgery. He's a great hitter. He's got a total greaseball hairdo. You knew all that. Did you also know that he stole 23 bases in the 2009 regular season without getting caught? Oh, he's also one of the best baserunners in the league overall, #2 in EqBRR between powerless speedsters like Michael Bourn and Rajai Davis this past season. Oh, and of all the players I ran the numbers on this past season, he is the best at avoiding the double play. Not bad for a guy who, to listen to some commentators, is a pretty good "sidekick" for Ryan Howard. Dude is so underrated he's raised some interesting questions. I'd say he's about as underrated as Carlos Beltran, except that Beltran gets more play (being in New York and one of Joe Posnanski's favorites doesn't hurt) and Utley has been the better player the last 4-5 season. Someone asked me last night on Twitter what it would take for Utley to finally win the NL MVP. I guess we'll see when Albert Pujols signs with the Royals in a couple of seasons... Anyway, where was I? Oh yeah. If I didn't worry so much about handedness, I'd probably hit Werth #1, then Utley-Ibanez-Howard or something. But I do worry about it. Hitting Chutley first minimizes his GDP skills and power, but since we ended up putting Victorino second because of handedness issues and Ibanez isn't as powerful as Werth and Howard, it does take advantage of Utley's skill on the bases. Werth has enough power to do well at cleanup and enough OBP to tackle the #4 spots frequent leadoff opportunities. Since neither he nor Ibanez are as good on the bases as Utley and VIctorino, having Howard behind them makes sense. Again, Howard #5 seems low, but #5 should be better than #3, and I needed to separate the lefties. Rollins offense has obviously declined, but he's not horrible, and #6 is a good spot for a guy who can steal bases in front of the weak hitters behind him who have trouble moving him over themselves.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. RHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Chase Utley	2B	L	.390	.290	.393	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Raul Ibanez	LF	L	.358	.270	.348	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Jason Werth	RF	R	.365	.269	.362	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.410	.278	.381	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.327	.260	.338	.408	.148	0.2	-0.4	-1.8
Pitcher
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.299	.253	.291	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Not much to add here. Remember that I could go either way on the pitcher thing... even a good-hitting pitcher is still usually worse than Pedro Feliz vs. RHP, although it's closer than you'd like. Basically I just took out Fransisco and put in the pitcher and moved Ruiz (not a bad hitter for a catcher) up. But let's talk about Rollins: He's not as good as he was (or he wasn't as good as we thought, depending on where you estimate his true talent in 2005-8 relative to now), but certain analysts have said that Rollins isn't the star he's made out to be. I don't know how you measure "starness," and I'll admit that I find JRoll's cockiness enjoyable. Still, just not being as good as Derek Jeter doesn't mean a player isn't good (and not that Jeter's the best SS in baseball, he's just an interesting comparison given the WS matchup). Moreover, how far is Rollins from Jeter, really? Sure, this season Jeter's about 5 wins better. But check it: FanGraphs has Jeter at about 26 WAR 2005-2009. Rollins is at a bit over 23 in the same period. That's pretty close to equal. Yes, it's true to say that Rollins is miscast as a leadoff hitter, but that doesn't mean he isn't (or hasn't been) an outstanding player, or even a star. It's weird how short- (and/or "narrow-") sighted people can be. Oh,. and one more thing on Utley power being "wasted" at leadoff: despite hitting #3, both his home runs last night were solo shots. Against a demonstration that batting order doesn't give as much control as we'd think, and why sometimes it's just better to give a good hitter (potentially) extra opportunities by moving him up than hoping he'll come up with runners on. And again OBP issues aside, putting guys like Rollins and Victorino in front of power hitters like Utley, Howard, and Werth neutralizes their speed, since they don't need to steal to get into position for these guys very often, and the power dimension of the good hitters also means that their advancement skills aren't leveraged properly, either -- Ryan Howard doesn't hit many singles that need a guy to book it from first to third.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. LHP w/DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jason Werth	RF	R	.389	.269	.389	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Chase Utley	2B	L	.360	.290	.366	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Ben Francisco	LF	R	.353	.269	.357	.438	.169	1.1	0.3	-0.8
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.378	.278	.354	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.348	.260	.362	.408	.148	0.3	0.7	-1.8
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Raul Ibanez	DH	L	.331	.270	.324	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.319	.253	.312	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: This seems a bit backward to me, too. Howard hitting cleanup vs. LHP but not RHP? Again, it's a function of a) getting the best hitters on top and alternating R/L guys, and b) a true estimate of platoon splits, as covered recently regarding Howard by MGL and more generally in my Book-inspired Platoon Splits Project (which I need to come back to after the season when I have the time to see how I did). Werth is projected to be the best hitter vs. LHP, so hitting him cleanup might have made sense, but then that mean putting Howard #2 or #1 in front of a relatively low-power RHH like Ben Francisco or Carlos Ruiz, and if there's one thing Howard doesn't do well, it's run the bases. I went back and forth on Utley vs. Werth in the #1 and #2 spots, but finally settled on Werth leading off because this puts Utley (the superior basestealer and baserunner) closer to the less powerful hitters like Francisco and Ruiz (and without estimating them specifically, Utley's platoon splits at a glance are pretty small). When all else fails, give the best hitters the most PAs. Ibanez projects as terrible vs. LHP according to these methods, but having Victorino and Rollins #6 and #7 (they could go in either order, really) gives good basestealers in front of him and the bad-even-with-the-platoon advantage Feliz, which, as I've noted many times, is a better use of their stealing abililty than putting them in front of Utley and Howard.

Optimized Phillies batting order vs. LHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jason Werth	RF	R	.389	.269	.389	.490	.221	0.3	1.2	1.9
Chase Utley	2B	L	.360	.290	.366	.513	.223	1.6	1.4	2.0
Shane Victorino	CF	S	.333	.283	.343	.418	.135	0.8	0.8	1.4
Ryan Howard	1B	L	.378	.278	.354	.575	.297	-1.5	0.1	1.3
Carlos Ruiz	C	R	.348	.260	.362	.408	.148	0.3	0.7	-1.8
Jimmy Rollins	SS	S	.332	.271	.328	.438	.167	0.9	2.2	-0.1
Raul Ibanez	LF	L	.331	.270	.324	.467	.197	0.1	-0.3	0.5
Pitcher
Pedro Feliz	3B	R	.319	.253	.312	.400	.147	-1.0	0.0	-0.6

[NB: The italicized columns are adjusted/regressed appropriatelly for league-average platoon splits.]

Comments: Yes, I do think (at least according to the James projections), that without the DH the Phillies shold be platooning Francisco and Ibanez, and that's without even taking defense and baserunning into account. But we aren't here to dispute who should be in the lineup, just how it should be ordered.This is prety much the same, except that without Francisco, I ended having to put Victorino in the #3 spot. I picked him over Ruize because a) the #5 hitter should be better than #3, and b) Ruiz has a problem with GDPs, and Victorino is good at avoiding them. Morever, Werth and (especially) Utley's skill on the bases can help Victorino out despite his lack of power, and Howard's skills are diminished vs. LHP, so Victorino's basestealing isn't as wasted. Rollins could arguably switch with Ruiz here, if you wanted to leverage his basestealing a bit more, but I like it the way it is.

So there it is. I know this I've made some controversial suggestions as far as batting order goes. Maybe I'm too dogmatic about splitting up lefties, but that's what I've gone with. It's fun to see the different ways of thinking about it, at least I hope it is for you guys. These things are a lot of work, but a lot of fun, so I hope people get a bit of entertainment out of it and aren't just irritated.

I can't wait to see Manuel lead off Utley tonight!

Player Origins of the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies

John Sickels — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:03:13 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Philadelphia Phillies infielder Jimmy Rollins, drafted in the second round in 1996.(AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Philadelphia Phillies: Player Origins

Here are the player development origins of the 2009 National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

PITCHERS:

Antonio Bastardo, LHP: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2005.

Joe Blanton, RHP: Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the first round in 2002, from the University of Kentucky. Acquired by the Phillies in a trade with Oakland in July 2008.

Chad Durbin, RHP: Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the third round in 1996, from high school in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in December 2007.

Scott Eyre, RHP: Drafted by the Texas Rangers in the ninth round in 1991, from the Junior College of Southern Idaho. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Cubs in August 2008.

Cole Hamels, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2002, out of high school in San Diego, California.

J.A. Happ, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the third round in 2004, from Northwestern University.

Cliff Lee, LHP: Drafted by the Montreal Expos in the fourth round in 2000, from the University of Arkansas. Acquired in a trade with the Indians this summer.

Brad Lidge, RHP: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the first round in 1998, from the University of Notre Dame. Acquired in a trade with the Astros in November 2007.

Ryan Madson, RHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the ninth round in 1998, out of high school in Moreno Valley, California.

Pedro Martinez, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1988. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Chan Ho Park, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from South Korea in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent.

POSITION PLAYERS

Paul Bako, C: Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the fifth round in 1993, out of the University of Southwestern Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Eric Bruntlett, INF: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the ninth round in 2000, out of Stanford University. The Phillies got him in a trade with Houston in 2007.

Miguel Cairo, INF: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent out of Venezuela in 1990. Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 2009.

Greg Dobbs, INF: Signed by the Seattle Mariners as an undrafted free agent from the University of Oklahoma in 2001. The Phillies claimed him on waivers in 2007.

Pedro Feliz, 3B: Signed by the San Francisco Giants as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in 2008.

Ben Francisco, OF: Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the fifth round in 2002 from UCLA. The Phillies acquired him in a trade this summer with the Indians.

Ryan Howard, 1B: Drafted by the Phillies in the fifth round in 2001, from Southwest Missouri State University (now known as Missouri State University).

Raul Ibanez, OF: Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 36^th round in 1992, from Miami-Dade Community College-South. The Phillies signed him as a free agent last winter.

Jimmy Rollins, SS: Drafted by the Phillies in the second round in 1996, out of high school in Alameda, California.

Carlos Ruiz, C: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 1998, out of Panama.

Matt Stairs, OF: Signed by the Montreal Expos as an undrafted free agent in 1989, out of high school in Canada. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Blue Jays in 2008.

Chase Utley, 2B: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2000, out of UCLA.

Shane Victorino, OF: Drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth round in 1999, out of high school in Wailuku, Hawaii.. Selected in the 2005 Rule 5 draft.

Jayson Werth, OF: Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the first round in 1997, out of high school in Chatham, Illinois. Signed as a free agent by the Phillies in 2006.

ACQUISTIONS:

Via Trades/Waivers: Blanton, Eyre, Lee, Lidge, Bruntlett,. Dobbs, Francisco, Stairs.

Phillies Farm System Products: Bastardo, Hamels, Happ, Madson, Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, Utley.

Free Agents: Durbin, Martinez, Park, Bako, Cairo, Feliz, Ibanez, Werth.

Rule 5: Victorino.

ORIGINS

Drafted from North American high schools: Durbin (3^rd), Hamels (1^st), Madson (9^th), Rollins (2^nd), Victorino (9^th), Werth (1^st).

Drafted from junior colleges: Eyre (9^th), Ibanez (36^th)

Drafted from four-year colleges: Blanton (1^st); Happ (3^rd), Lee (4^th), Lidge (1^st), Bako (5^th), Bruntlett (9^th), Francisco (5^th), Howard (5^th), Utley (1^st)

Undrafted free agents from North America: Dobbs, Stairs

Latin Free Agents: Bastardo, Martinez, Cairo, Feliz, Ruiz

Asian Free Agents: Park

As you can see, the Phillies built their team through a variety of sources. Once the American League winner is determined, we'll analyze their roster and compare the two.

Rollins Thunder: Phillies 5, Dodgers 4

dajafi — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:28:10 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Jimmy Rollins congratulated Ryan Howard after the Big Piece mashed a first-inning home run. Not quite four hours later, he'd have a turn as the hero. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

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With one picture-perfect swing on a Jonathan Broxton fastball, Jimmy Rollins put 8 2/3 innings of frustration for his team--and the better part of a full season for himself--in the rear-view mirror. Rollins' two-out, two-on double to the gap scored Eric Bruntlett and Carlos Ruiz with the tying and winning runs as the Phillies took a walkoff thriller against the Dodgers in Game Four of the NLCS and claimed a three games to one series lead.

Rollins threw the last knockout punch in a night of haymakers. Ryan Howard got things started in the bottom of the first against former teammate Randy Wolf, who had allowed just one home run to lefty hitters all season. Now he's allowed one in the playoffs: with Rollins on first, Howard tattooed a 3-1 fastball into the right-field seats to put the Phillies ahead 2-0. But Wolf settled in after that, retiring ten in a row and not surrendering another hit until the sixth.

Joe Blanton started strong as well, retiring the first ten Dodger hitters he faced. But with one out in the fourth, he walked Matt Kemp to give Los Angeles its first base runner. Andre Ethier followed with a deep flyout to dead center, but Manny Ramirez singled to put runners at the corners. James Loney did the same to cut the lead in half, and after a walk to Ronnie Belliard, Russell Martin singled to tie it. An inning later, Kemp came up with two outs and blasted a home run to center, over Shane Victorino climbing the wall. In the sixth, the Dodgers added another run as Ramirez reached on a Pedro Feliz error, Belliard moved him to second on a bloop single and Casey Blake, previously 1 for 25 in his career off Blanton, took a low pitch the opposite way for a single and a 4-2 advantage.

The Phils drew closer in the bottom of the sixth. Victorino tripled with one out, and Utley pulled a Wolf fastball into right for a single. After Howard walked, Joe Torre pulled Wolf for Ronald Belisario, who sawed off Jayson Werth for what looked like a 5-4-3 double-play ball before Belliard dropped it on the transfer; the Dodgers were awarded an out. Belisario then gave way to Hong-Chi Kuo. Raul Ibanez greeted him with a sinking liner to left--that Ramirez, of all people, caught just about the grass to preserve LA's lead.

Chan Ho Park and Ryan Madson kept the Dodgers off the scoreboard for the next two innings. In the bottom of the eighth, the Phillies got two on with one out against George Sherrill, who hit Victorino with a pitch and walked Utley. But he recovered to strike out Howard for the second out. Broxton came in for Werth, flirting with triple digits on the fastball; after a six-pitch at-bat, he got Werth to fly out to right.

Scott Eyre started the ninth, but gave way to Brad Lidge with Rafael Furcal on first and one out. Lidge, showing perhaps his best stuff of the postseason, struck out both Kemp and Ethier, stranding what would have been a huge insurance run.

Broxton came back out after sitting through the long top of the ninth. He got Ibanez to ground out, but facing Matt Stairs--the man who beat him with a majestic two-run bomb to win Game Four of last year's NLCS--he issued a quick walk. Broxton's first pitch to Carlos Ruiz hit him, pushing Bruntlett, pinch-running for Stairs, into scoring position. Greg Dobbs, pinch-hitting for Lidge, lined softly to third.

That brought up Rollins, and the sort of indelibly wonderful moment that explains why so many of us are willing to sit through so many of the other kind.

After an off-day tomorrow, the Phils send Cole Hamels to the mound for Game Five, hoping he'll send them back to the World Series.

New Year, Same Game Four Result For Dodgers

Eric Stephen — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:15:31 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Jonathan Broxton, who has come up big all season, blew this one tonight.

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It happened again. The Dodgers again held a lead over the Phillies in Game 4 of the NLCS, this time in the ninth inning, but Jonathan Broxton and the Dodgers walked off the field with a heartbreaking 5-4 loss, and a crushing 3-1 series deficit.

Broxton again faced Matt Stairs, who homered off him last season, but this time Stairs was in a four-for-50 slump. With one out, Stairs walked on four pitches. Up stepped Dodger killer Carlos Ruiz, who was hit with the first pitch, putting the winning run in scoring position. Broxton retired Greg Dobbs, bringing Jimmy Rollins to the plate with two outs and two on. Rollins lined a shot to the gap in right center, bringing home the tying and winning runs.

The Dodgers had this game. Bottom of the order facing Broxton with a lead is easy money. I really don't know what else to say. There is no game tomorrow, so we have roughly 44 hours to hear about how this series is over. From where I'm sitting, I can't say I disagree.

WP - Brad Lidge (1-0): 2 batters, 2 strikeouts

LP - Jonathan Broxton (0-1): 1 IP, 1 hit, 2 runs, 1 walk

Box Score

Dodgers Turn To The Wolf To Get Even

Eric Stephen — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 18:59:15 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

The Wolfman Cometh tonight for the Dodgers

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So, other than that, how was the play last night, Mrs. Lincoln?

If baseball had a football schedule, we would have a week to stew over last night's debacle, but luckily the greatest game on Earth is quick to forgive and forget, as the Dodgers have a chance to quickly erase last night's memory from their minds.

Randy Wolf returns to his old stomping grounds tonight, trying to even the NLCS at two. Wolf was drafted by the Phillies in 1997, and spent his first ten years as a pro in the Phillies' organization. He started the very first game at Citizens Bank Park, in 2004. Manager Joe Torre thought highly enough of Wolf to start him in the NLDS opener against the Cardinals. However, Wolf was inexplicably dropped to fourth in the rotation for the NLCS, but that decision may just pay off just when the Dodgers need it most. Wolf was a rock for the Dodgers this season, leading the club in starts, innings, and quality starts.

Left-handed batters hit just .159/.217/.200 against Wolf this season, striking out in 60 of 185 plate appearances, a stellar 32.4% of the time. In Game 1 against the Cardinals, lefties Skip Schumaker and Colby Rasmus had two hits and two walks in five plate appearances against Wolf. Ryan Howard, who struggled against LHP all season, has a double and two walks in five plate appearances against southpaws in the NLCS, with three runs batted in.

Joe Blanton, who was used in relief in the NLDS, starts tonight for the Phillies. After giving up five runs in five innings in Cincinnati on May 21 (in a win!), Blanton's ERA stood at 7.11, as home plate was always open for the opposition. Since then, however, Blanton really turned it around, going 10-5 with a 3.16 ERA and 4.18 FIP in 23 starts, averaging 6.57 innings per start.

To win tonight, the Dodger offense needs to show up. Over the last two games, the Dodgers have no extra-base hits, and have just two runs and 11 baserunners in total, hitting .145/.190/.145. I keep hearing Citizens Bank Park is a hitter-friendly park, but the Dodgers are doing their best to convince me otherwise. Since the beginning of 2008, the Dodgers have scored just 29 runs in 10 games in Philadelphia, including the playoffs. Nine of those runs came in one game, earlier this season, but other than that runs have been few and far between for the Dodgers in the city of brotherly love. To win tonight and in this series, they need to score, and score often.

A few notes:

Manny Ramirez has 15 hits in 26 at-bats against Blanton, hitting .577/.636/.731 with one home run
James Loney is seven for 10 with a double off Blanton, hitting .700/.750/.800
Andre Ethier has six hits in 14 at-bats, including two solo home runs, against Blanton, hitting .429/.467/.857
Casey Blake has just one single in 23 at-bats against Blanton, hitting .043/.154/.043
Pedro Feliz is five for 19 with three homers off Wolf, hitting .294/.316/.824
Carlos Ruiz if four for six, with two doubles and a home run (shocker, I know) off Wolf, packing a lot of production (.667/.750/1.500) into just eight plate appearances

The Dodgers this postseason are 4-0 when playing on a day with other games scheduled, and 0-2 when they are the lone game on the schedule. The Yankees and Angels play Game 3 of the ALCS today at 1:13pm.

Here are the lineups for Game 4:

Dodgers		Phillies
SS	Furcal	SS	Rollins
CF	Kemp	CF	Victorino
RF	Ethier	2B	Utley
LF	Manny	1B	Howard
1B	Loney	RF	Werth
2B	Belliard	LF	Ibañez
C	Martin	3B	Feliz
3B	Blake	C	Ruiz
P	Wolf	P	Blanton

**********

Check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game here.

Game Time: 5:07pm

TV: TBS (Chip Caray, Ron Darling, Buck Martinez)

Baseball Reference Game Four Preview

Carlos Ruiz: Dodger Killer

David S. Cohen — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 18:42:37 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

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Much has been made about Carlos Ruiz's post-season heroics. When he was at bat last night, the stadium roared with cheers of "Choooooooch." He's becoming known as Senor Octubre.

But, maybe it's just that he should be known as "Carlos Ruiz, Dodger Killer."

Carlos Ruiz has been great in the post-season, but it hasn't been consistent. He's hit well in the World Series. Against the Rays, he posted a .375/.500/.688 triple-slash line for a 1.188 OPS. And he's been great in the NLCS. Combining this year and last year, he has a .417/.500/625 line for a 1.125 OPS. But, in his three NLDS's, Ruiz has been almost invisible. He has hit .222/.300/.250 for a .550 OPS over the past three years.

The thing about his NLCS performance is that it's very consistent with his career performance against the Dodgers. He's put up his 1.125 NLCS OPS in 28 plate appearances against the Dodgers this year and last. That OPS is almost identical to his lifetime regular-season OPS against the Dodgers: 1.132 in 48 plate appearances. In fact, each component is very similar to his regular-season OPS against the Dodgers: .378/.511/.622.

Thus, it may be that it's not this time of year that Chooch loves, but rather Dodger blue. After all, whatever the Dodgers' scouting report on Ruiz says must be wrong, very wrong.