SB Nation - Jeremy Reed

While You Were Out: Amazin' Avenue Week In Review (10/11-10/17)

James Kannengieser — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 23:00:28 -0000

If the Dodgers win the World Series it will be in spite of Joe Torre, not because of him. The week's posts:

Mets Birthdays, October 12th - Happy 47th, Sid Fernandez!
2009 Mets Transaction Register: Part 1 - Eric shows us, transaction by transaction, where the Mets went wrong this year. Part 2 will feature Oliver Perez, the horror the horror.
Keeping Tabs On The 2009 Draftees: Part 1 - Alex provides updates on players from the disappointing 2009 Draft.
A Guide To Some Relevant Minor League Free Agents - Sam profiles some F.A.T.
Jenrry Mejia In Pitchf/x - MLB Gameday cameras are setup at the Arizona Fall League and that's a great thing. Sam looks at the first game of our top pitching prospect.
Non-Tender Candidate: Jeremy Reed - Adios, Mr. Sub-Replacement Level.
Diamonds In The Rough - robcast23 looks at some pitchers who are or might become available and can be had for cheap.
Brad Hawpe: The Poor Man's Adam Dunn - I suspect we'll be hearing a ton about Hawpe this offseason from Met fans, along with Orlando Hudson, Xavier Nady and Jason Marquis.

Non-Tender Candidate: Jeremy Reed

James Kannengieser — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 18:00:21 -0000

Note: If a team decides to not offer a contract to an unsigned player on the 40 man roster, the player is non-tendered and becomes a free agent. Per Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors, some former non-tendered players include David Ortiz, Joel Pineiro, Jayson Werth and Takashi Saito.

Jeremy Reed initially looked like an unspectacular yet promising pick-up in the J.J. Putz trade. He was once a top prospect, tearing up the minor leagues and the majors in a brief 2004 call-up. Some put him on the level of Kevin Youkilis at one point. With average defense and unrealized potential at the plate, the 27 year-old Reed projected as a decent 4th/5th outfielder. Instead, his season turned into an under-the-radar disaster.

Reed's .263 wOBA was awful, especially for a (mostly) corner outfielder. His BABIP of .312 was slightly higher than his career figure, so he probably wasn't unlucky. The 22.4% K-rate, .062 ISO and 0 home runs reinforce that Reed's offensive output was on par with the likes of Yuniesky Betancourt in 2009. A non-terrible performance as a pinch hitter (.278 BA) was not enough to compensate.

Defensively, it appears he was slightly above average. This is the lone positive (save an unfortunate appearance at 1st base against the Dodgers), as his UZR of +1.7 jibes with a Plus/Minus figure of +4. Sean Smith projected Reed as a +6 corner OF this season so I feel comfortable saying he was above average in the field.

An 0/3 stolen base performance and -3.21 EqBRR (non SB/CS baserunning) show that Reed was terrible on the basepaths this year. Worst on the Mets, according to the EqBRR stat. With a sub-50% career stolen base rate, it's a safe assumption that running the bases is not his forte. Factoring Plus/Minus and UZR to measure defense, as well as baserunning, here is Reed's adjusted Fangraphs WAR for 2009:

Bat	Field	Repl	Pos	BR	RAR	WAR
-9.4	2.9	5.9	-4.8	-3.2	-8.6	-.9

At -0.9 WAR, he was among the least valuable players in Major League Baseball. And that's in just 178 plate appearances, while making slightly under $1M. Even if a reserve outfielder isn't a strong all-around player, he can have use with a specialized skill. Endy Chavez's defense or Eric Hinske's power are such examples. Reed doesn't seem to have anything of the sort to offer the Mets, as harsh as it might sound.

Verdict: Non-tender and it's a no-brainer. The Mets just can't wait around for busted prospect Reed to magically put it all together. The fact that he is from San Dimas, CA isn't reason enough to retain his services.

2009 Mets Transaction Register, Part 1

Eric Simon — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 09:01:02 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Who is he thanking: Poseiden or Ra? (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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The wretched 2009 season is over, so enter a glut of retrospectives, commentary, and analyses chronicling the whole mess. We'll kick things off by taking a look back at the moves -- trades and signings -- the Mets made since the 2008 season ended unceremoniously (for the Mets, anyway). There's a lot to wade through, so we're going to break this into at least two parts.

November 18, 2008

Signed Andy Green: Andy saw just five plate appearances with the Mets in 2009, spending most of the season with Triple-A Buffalo, where he hit .259./.330/.379 with a .326 wOBA and .5 hWAR. This now qualifies as the most anyone has ever written about Andy Green.

December 3, 1998

Signed Nelson Figueroa: Figgy had a 3.07 tRA in 112 innings pitched with Buffalo and a 5.06 tRA in 58 innings with the Mets. He made the league minimum (less if you consider the time spent on a minor league deal), and has generally been pretty mediocre in his two seasons since returning to the states. He's a useful guy to keep around Triple-A to make the occasional emergency start, and might even be passable as a swingman/mop jockey.

December 9, 2008

Signed Francisco Rodriguez for 3 years/$37 million plus vesting 2012 option worth $17.5 million: We've already covered this. The guaranteed money is probably too much for a good reliever with diminishing velocity, declining strikeout rates, and spotty control, but the overlooked option makes this a brutal deal for the Mets. It seemed like a good idea at the time, ubt unless Frankie's arm falls off the Mets will be on the hook for $46 million over the next three seasons, the mere thought of which just made me throw up in my mouth a little bit. Rodriguez is hardly a bad pitcher, he's just not a great pitcher, and the Mets are paying him to be brilliant. They might be able to swap him for someone else's bad contract -- Milton Bradley's name continues to come up -- but I don't think the Mets are down on Rodriguez at all, let alone as nauseated as we are.

December 11, 2008

Drafted Darren O'Day from the Angels in the Rule 5 draft: This looked like a pretty good move for the Mets at the time, though O'Day only pitched three innings before being waived to make room for Figueroa to make a start in Mike Pelfrey's absence. Few tears were cried over O'Day's departure, until he went on to strike out 54 in 55.2 innings with the Rangers while posting a 2.83 tRA, 11.8% swinging strike rate and a sub-1.00 WHIP. His .244 BABIP might be unsustainably low, but the Mets' loss was the Rangers' gain.

Traded Endy Chavez, Aaron Heilman, Mike Carp, Jason Vargas, Joe Smith, Ezequiel Carrera, and Maikel Cleto in a three-team deal with the Mariners and Indians, getting back J.J. Putz, Sean Green, and Jeremy Reed: Ugh. This one looks worse with each passing day. Green is probably the best player going to the Mets in this deal. Putz was spotty and then injured, and his outlook for 2010 is questionable. He'll pitch, I assume, but the Mets hold an $8.6 million club option with a $1 million buyout, and his return to Queens is hardly guaranteed. Reed was worth -.7 WAR with the Mets in 2009, and is apparently terrible at everything. Endy got hurt but he's Endy which just makes this trade worse for reasons both rational (his leather-flashing puts Rob Halford to shame) and irrational (he's Endy!). Joe Smith was so-so with the Indians; he's a younger, slighty shabbier Sean Green. Carp had a decent season with Triple-A Tacoma and hit .315/.415/.463 in 65 plate appearances with the Mariners. Vargas was nothing special, and managed to allow 16 homeruns in 91.2 innings. Heilman was traded in a separate deal from Seattle to the Cubs, and was about what you'd expect (good strikeouts, too many walks, mirthless scowl). Carrera had a .408 wOBA with Double-A West Tenn. Cleto made eight starts with Single-A Clinton, striking out 24 and walking eleven in 25.1 innings. If Putz had stayed healthy and effective things would look a whole lot different, but as it stands this deal gets worse with each passing day.

December 23, 2008

Signed Omir Santos: We rag on Santos here a lot, mostly because he's bad, but also because the Mets think he's actually good. The truth is that he's pretty bad, at hitting at least, but the Mets paid him nothing and he was worth almost half a win with his bat, and he might be pretty good with the glove, too. The truth is that the Mets could do worse than Santos in a backup role next year, but the frightening reality is that he may be more than that.

January 9, 2009

Signed Tim Redding for 1 year/$2.25 million: Looked like a decent deal for an average starting pitcher. Then he missed the beginning of the season with a shoulder problem. Then he was below average for 120 innings with the Mets. Whatever. I'm not losing any sleep over this one. It was a pretty good one-year gamble.

January 13, 2009

Signed Alex Cora for 1 year/$2 million: A .291 wOBA and -3.7 UZR in 82 games, the best thing you can say about him is that he had the good sense to get hurt and not further hamper the Mets with his sub-replacement ballplaying.

January 16, 2009

Signed Casey Fossum: Appeared in two games for Buffalo and three for the Mets, doing little of anything worth mentioning. Spent most of the season with Triple-A Iowa in the Cubs' system.

January 20, 2009

Signed Cory Sullivan for 1 year/$600k: Posted a semi-respectable .332 wOBA in 156 plate appearances with the Mets, but was unspectacular in the outfield. FanGraphs has him worth $400k, so this signing was hardly a disaster. Nothing to get too excited about either, I suppose.

Elijah Dukes Will Run Through Walls. Washington Nationals 4, New York Mets 3.

Ed Chigliak — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 04:20:27 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' starter J.D. Martin, pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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We've learned two things about Elijah Dukes this year:

1) You don't run on Dukes.

2) Elijah Dukes will run through walls.

If David Wright didn't know that second one already he found out as he came around first and watched Elijah Dukes run full speed into the out-of-town scoreboard in right to rob Wright of a potentially game-tying extra base hit with two out in the top of the ninth tonight in DC's 4-3 win over New York. Dukes' catch gave Mike MacDougal his 18th save in 19 opportunities a half-inning after Washington took the lead with the help of two errors from NY's middle infielders. The Nationals take their second straight over the Mets and set themselves up for the sweep in the last home game of 2009 tomorrow afternoon. (ed. note - "And I'm telling you right now...Teddy Roosevelt will win tomorrow, buy your tickets so you can say you were there...") (ed. note - "The previous opinion is in no way based on facts, just gut feelings, like Riggleman!!")

BACKPAGE:

• Martin v Pelfrey.
• Elijah SSSSSUPER DUKESSSSS!!!! F.O.D.&D. Rejoice! Desmond Does It Too!!!
• Adam Dunn Gets The Beyond The Box Score Treatment.

• Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

• Check Out the SB Nation's NY Mets Blog: Amazin' Avenue OpenThread.

• LINK: Game 157: Enjoy 2B Next Year, Guz..." - Doghouse.

• For The Completists, Full Game Report After The JUMP...

Nationals now 54-103. (Countdown To 100 Losses, Over For Days Now).

BACKPAGE:

• Martin v Pelfrey. J.D. Martin gets himself in trouble early, giving up a leadoff double to Angel Pagan and letting Luis Castillo reach base on a sac bunt attempt. David Wright walks to loaded the bases and Carlos Beltran walks too to force in the first run. 1-0 NY. Martin gets a line drive to short, a fly ball to short center and an out at second to escape further damage, but he gets right back in trouble in the second. Wilson Valdez doubles to start the frame, moves to second on a sac bunt by the Mets' starter and scores on an Angel Pagan single for a 2-0 lead. David Wright doubles Pagan in, 3-0 Mets.

• Mike Pelfrey retires the first eight batters he faces before allowing a bloop single to the opposing pitcher in the bottom of the third. The Mets' right-hander throws four scoreless for NY, holding DC to just a walk and a single, but the fifth starts with "Pinch Hittin'" Pete Orr singling on an 0-2 fastball up and out over the plate. Ian Desmond's up next and the Nationals' rookie shortstop gets a 1-2 fastball from Pelfrey that doesn't quite make it inside, Desmond explodes on it, launches it to left and GONE!! Two-run HR, 3-2 NY. Two outs later, still in the fifth, Willie Harris and Elijah Dukes hit back-to-back singles and Mr. Gold Glove Himself, the one and only Ryan Zimmerman gets two straight and I mean "straight" fastballs inside, the second of which is lined to left for Zim's 103rd RBI and the 3-3 tie.

• J.D. Martin ends up throwing four scoreless after the rough start, and leaves after 6.0 IP, having given up 7 hits, 3 ER and 2 walks, but the win ends up going to DC reliever Tyler Clippard who throws 2.0 scoreless, the second of which I still can't believe he escaped. Clippard gave up back to back singles to Carlos Beltran and Daniel Murphy, then walked Jeff Francoeur to load the bases with no outs and the score tied at 3-3 tie in the eighth. Former Nationals' catcher Brian Schneider (Call us, Brian?) does Washington a solid by popping out unproductively and pinch hitter Jeremy Reed lines to second, Alberto Gonzalez catches it, throws to first, Francoeur's out, (where was he going?) DOUBLE PLAY!! Clippard's one lucky reliever...

• Mike "Danger" Morse walks with one down in the Nationals' eighth, Justin Maxwell takes over on the basepaths, and pinch hitter Cristian Guzman follows with what should be a double play, but Anderson Hernandez fields at short and tosses one low to Luis Castillo, and right by second, both runners safe. Ian Desmond follows with another DP grounder, Anderson Hernandez gets to it behind second, tosses to Castillo, Castillo fires wide of first and out of Daniel Murphy's reach, Desmond's safe. Maxwell scores from second, 4-3 DC!!

• Top Of Ninth...Mike MacDougal comes on to close it. Cory Sullivan K's swinging. Angel Pagan...singles, (3 for 5), but MacDougal paints the outside corner to get Luis Castillo looking with Pagan still at first. David Wright, works the count full and destroys a 96 mph MacDougal heater. Wright drives it to right, Elijah Dukes sprints toward the wall, and runs into the out-of-town scoreboard as he makes the grab, Dukes bounces of the wall, falls back and rolls to his feet, then jumps up pounding his chest!!! SSSSSUPER DUKESSSS Runs through walls! Nationals win, 4-3 final.

LINK:

• Adam Dunn Gets The Beyond The Box Score Treatment.

Walter Fulbright has an article up at Beyond The Boxscore, the SB Nation's "Saber-Slanted" blog, entitled, "The Two Sides Of Adam Dunn: Graph Of The Day", in which Mr. Fullbright determines that Adam Dunn is, "...still a superstar, just playing out of position because he no longer has one," and recommends that fans, "...start a letter writing campaign to see if we can find the Nationals an American League trading partner." Dunn ranks dead last on Mr. Fulbright's league-wide UZR chart and the BtB writer's description of the nation's capital's favorite first baseman is at odds with most of what I've heard from the DC Faithful:

"Adam Dunn can't hide his failings at the cold corner. Whatever advantage he has for reaching to balls above his head (a pretty low percentage play anyway) are absolutely obliterated by his inability to scoop balls in the dirt, either from throws or from ground balls. He's so completely top heavy that he has an inherent disadvantage to those born with the virtue of just being closer to the ground. This is a pretty definite trend, he has roughly the same power off the bat as when he was 23, only with 60-70 more pounds packed on, his defense has gone from pretty bad to awful to absolutely unacceptable."

Check out Mr. Fulbright's article HERE or in the title link above to see how he reached his conclusions. Let him know what you've seen from Dunn...

GAME REPORT:

New York Mets At Washington Nationals. Game 157 Of 162.

DC right-hander J.D. Martin takes a deep breath, stretching his jaw as he does, then he exhales and fires the first pitch home to Angel Pagan. Pagan ends up doubling to right off the out-of-town scoreboard to start the game with a runner on second. Luis Castillo bunts to third and J.D. Martin cuts Ryan Zimmerman off to field and not throw to first. First and third for David Wright. J.D. Martin walks the bases loaded and goes 3-0 to Carlos Beltran, hitting the outside corner for 3-1 and getting a foul for another full count. Then Martin walks Beltran and walks in a run, 1-0 New York. Daniel Murphy lines toward short, Ian Desmond catches and holds it. Jeff Francoeur flies out to short center, and Willie Harris catches it coming in to hold Castillo at third. Brian Schneider lines to Pete Orr to end the threat with just the walked in run scoring...Willie Harris pops out to left to start the bottom of the first. Mets’ righty Mike Pelfrey gets a weak grounder to third from Elijah Dukes. Ryan Zimmerman grounds out to short.

Wilson Valdez doubles over short to start the second. Mike Pelfrey bunts to Adam Dunn, who can only throw to first. Angel Pagan singles to score Valdez and it’s 2-0 New York with one out in the second. Luis Castillo pops out to left. David Wright doubles off the base of the wall in left, Pagan scores from first, 3-0 Mets. Carlos Beltran grounds out to first, Adam Dunn fields it and hustles to first...Dunn leads off DC’s second with a swinging K on a bender off the plate. Mike Morse grounds out to Wilson Valdez at short. Pete Orr grounds to Castillo at second and it’s 3-0 NY after three.

Willie Harris has to run way into left to catch a line drive off Daniel Murphy’s bat. Francoeur flies out to Elijah Dukes in right. Brian Schneider grounds out to first and Dunn tosses to Martin to end the Mets’ third...Ian Desmond flies out to right field. Mike Pelfrey gets off the mound quickly to field a dribbler toward third and throws a strike to Daniel Murphy at first to get WIl Nieves. J.D. Martin sends a bloop single to center for the Nationals’ first hit. Willie Harris walks. Elijah Dukes rolls the third out to short.

Wilson Valdez grounds out to Pete Orr. Mike Pelfrey’s groundout rolls over the first base bag to Dunn. Angel Pagan sends Mike Morse sprinting back to make an overhead catch for the final out of the Mets’ fourth...Ryan Zimmerman grounds to short, Wilson Valdez double-pumps and throws to first. Adam Dunn flies out to deep center. Mike Morse grounds out to short, Pelfrey’s got four scoreless.

Willie Harris takes two steps back and catches a line drive off Luis Castillo’s bat. David Wright pulls a bender over third and into left for a one-out double. Carlos Beltran grounds weakly to second. Daniel Murphy flies out to Mike Morse and it’s 3-0 NY after four and a half...Pete Orr smacks a single through short. Ian Desmond goes deeeep to left on a high inside fastball and it’s GONE!!! Two-run HR, 3-2 NY. Wil Nieves grounds out to WIlson Valdez at short. J.D. Martin K’s swinging over a two-strike sinker. Willie Harris sneaks a grounder under a diving Luis Castillo at second. Elijah Dukes singles to center, but Willie Harris holds up at second. Ryan Zimmerman gets a fastball before it gets inside and singles to center to score Harris. 3-3. Adam Dunn grounds out to first, tied after five.

Jeff Francoeur lines to left, Morse misjudges it but hustles back to make a leaping catch. Brian Schneider throws his bat at a fastball and singles to center. Wilson Valdez sends a fluttering line drive out to Willie Harris. MIke Pelfrey flies out to right...Mike Morse grounds out to third. Pete Orr grounds to Daniel Murphy at first. Ian Desmond slides in safe at second on a one-hopper to third that gets by David Wright and rolls out to left. Wil Nieves lines out to right.

Tyler Clippard starts Angel Pagan with three balls and then blows Pagan away. Ian Desmond throws out Luis Castillo. Clippard gets Wright on a called strike three, 3-3 in the seventh...Alberto Gonzalez grounds to Murphy at first. Willie Harris flies out to center. Elijah Dukes grounds one through Pelfrey’s legs for a two-out single. Ryan Zimmerman flies out to right, 3-3 after seven.

Carlos Beltran singles to center to start NY's eighth. Daniel Murphy rips a grounder by Dunn at first, Beltran takes third. Jeff Francouer walks to load the bases for Schneider. Brian Schneider pops out foul of third. Pinch hitter Jeremy Reed hits a broken bat liner to second, Frenchy gets doubled up!!...Adam Dunn K’s and Pedro Feliciano’s out after one batter. Mike Morse vs Sean Green. Morse walks, Justin Maxwell on to run. Cristian Guzman will hit. Guzman grounds to second, Anderson Hernandez tosses it but Castillo at second, both runners safe. Ian Desmond grounds to second, Anderson Hernandez knocks it down, tosses to second, Castillo....throws it wide of first, Maxell scores, Desmond's safe. 4-3 NY. Francisco Rodriguez comes on. Desmond takes third without a throw. Angel Pagan makes an underhand catch on a line out by Alberto Gonzalez.

Mike MacDougal vs Cory Sullivan. Angel Pagan lines off Zimmerman’s glove and into left. Luis Castillo takes a called strike three for out No. 2!!! David Wright flies to deeeep right, Elijah Dukes tracks it and catches it as he hits the wall at full speeeeed. SSSSSUPER DUKESSSSSS!!!!!!!! Sets up the sweeeep!!!!

Nationals now 53-104.

Masterpiece Theatre: Phillies 1, Mets 0

dajafi — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 03:15:29 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

3 months ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Pedro Martinez pitches in the second inning of the second game of a baseball doubleheader against the New York Mets, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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Through his first six starts as a Phillie, all wins for the team, Pedro Martinez clearly showed that he still had something left at age 37. In number seven, he turned back the clock and electrified a packed Citizens Bank Park, working eight superb innings to come out on the long end of a 1-0 victory.

After allowing five baserunners through the first two innings, Martinez mowed the Mets down over the next three innings with a low-90s fastball, evil changeup and rarely used but effective curve. He surrendered a leadoff David Wright double in the sixth--then struck out Carlos Beltran and induced easy fly outs from Daniel Murphy and Jeremy Reed. In the seventh, going over 100 pitches, he worked around a one-out single and a two-out walk to preserve the lead. Incredibly, Charlie Manuel sent Martinez back out for the eighth--and he started the inning by striking out Wright for the third time in the game and getting a Beltran groundout. After a long battle, Murphy doubled to the wall in right-center--but with a 1-1 count on Reed and Martinez at 130 pitches, a breaking pitch bounced a foot away from catcher Carlos Ruiz and Murphy took off for third. Ruiz pounced on the ball and fired to Pedro Feliz, who slapped the tag on Murphy to end the inning.

The excellence of Martinez overshadowed Tim Redding's continued and ever more inexplicable ownership of the Phillies. The first three Phils hitters reached base, Jimmy Rollins coming around to score on a Chase Utley hit to the wall that, because of Rollins' late break, went only for a single. But Redding retired the next three hitters to escape without further damage, stranded Feliz after a leadoff double in the second, and then set down the next 14 Phils hitters. Redding's ERA for the season before tonight's game was 5.78; in three starts against them this year, he's worked to a 2.00 ERA through 18 innings,

Ryan Madson worked the ninth to earn his eighth save, allowing only a one-out single to another Phillie-killer, Brian Schneider. With the doubleheader sweep, the Phillies officially eliminated the Mets from playoff contention; with their 82nd win of the year, the club clinched its sixth seventh straight winning season. They now lead the Marlins, who lost earlier Sunday, by 6.5 games.

Another Game, Another Loss: Phillies 4, Mets 2

Eric Simon — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 04:56:18 -0000

Carlos Beltran got the night off again, presumably for weather-related reasons (ed. note: he's afraid of the rain). In a striking display of solidarity in support of their terrified centerfielder, the rest of the Mets' offense took the night off, too. I guess that's not entirely fair; they managed nine hits including seven off Cole Hamels, but they plated just one run in the first eight innings. In the ninth, Omir Santos led off with a double and Jeremy Reed's pinch-hit single sent Santos to third. Cory Sullivan then grounded into a rally-killing double play, chasing home Santos with the second run but also providing the Phillies with two important outs. Angel Pagan grounded out to second to end the game.

The loss was the Mets' fourth in a row and seventh in their last ten and it moved them to the precipice of mathematical playoff elimination. They were unofficially eliminated a couple of months ago, but we do like our statistical numbers here and those tell us it's almost officially time to move on.

The Mets' latest stretch of unwatchable futility has vaulted them over the A's, Padres, and Reds into seventh place overall, just a half-game behind sixth-place Arizona and a game-and-a-half behind fifth-place Cleveland. The real dregs of the league are at least another few games behind that, but a top-five overall pick would be a silver lining in this lost season.

Mike Pelfrey takes on Jamie Moyer at 4:05pm Saturday on FOX.

Haiku by Howard Megdal

Phils are struggling
But Mets can't take advantage
Oh what might have been

Swag Contest

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* The Good Phight Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: Jeremy Reed, +9.2% WPA, Jeff Francoeur, +7.9% WPA
Big losers: Fernando Tatis, -15.6% WPA, David Wright, -15.2% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Sullivan single in seventh, +9.3% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Sullivan GIDP in ninth, -16.0% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -6.6% WPA
Total batter WPA: -43.4% WPA
GWRBI!: Carlos Ruiz

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by sj10689; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	sj10689	59
2	Jadden Hopkins	22
3	MetsFan4Decades	21
4	EtSuKe	17
5	Syler	14
6	David G	10
7	blueandorange4life	8
8	fxcarden	8
9	nelsonc	5
10	firejerrynow	5

Welcome To The World, Dylan Lee. Thanks For Sending Your Dad Back; Derrek Lee Homers Twice In 5-3 Cubs Win

Al — Sat, 05 Sep 2009 22:00:21 -0000

by Frank Franklin II - AP

Two homers for your new son. Nice game, D-Lee!

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NEW YORK -- Bet you didn't realize exactly how much the Cubs missed Derrek Lee the last two days while he was away for the birth of his second child, and first son, named Dylan.

The Cubs welcomed him back and D-Lee sent two homers into the upper reaches of Citi Field -- two of the longer homers hit there, according to my "Cubs By The Numbers" co-author Matt Silverman, who I met for the first time today (we did the entire book by email and phone calls. And yes, that link above is a shameless hint to you to get your copy of the book if you haven't already). Matt provided the ticket, for which I thank him, and D-Lee provided the offense, going 3-for-4 with the pair of dingers and 3 RBI. That leaves Lee one homer short of his fourth 30-HR season (second with the Cubs) and with seven more RBI, he'll have his second 100-RBI year.

Lee's fine offensive year -- in a season when many Cubs fans (not me, though) were clamoring for him to be replaced by Micah Hoffpauir -- may go for naught; unless the Cubs start a long winning streak with this victory and the four teams in front of them start losing, the Cubs will have to settle for wins like this one, 5-3 over the Mets, as moral victories as they look forward to retooling for 2010. Lee was hitting .198 on May 16; since then in 92 games he's hitting .327/.405/.636 with 26 HR and 77 RBI. Sound like a guy in decline? Hardly. If only the rest of the offense had contributed in the same way all year.

Meanwhile, Rich Harden was striking out batters left and right through the first five innings -- that is, when he wasn't allowing a HR to Cory Sullivan, who hadn't homered all season until last night. Sullivan has to be happy to see Cubs pitchers, even if they don't return the favor. Harden had to be lifted after five innings after throwing 102 pitches; the bullpen did a decent job, except for Aaron Heilman, who was back to his old ways of not hitting his spots. He didn't walk anyone, but was charged with the Mets' third run. He was roundly booed when introduced and then again when he was taken out for John Grabow -- I thought, "Why are Mets fans booing him? He just gave them a run, they should be cheering and wanting him to stay in the game!"

Carlos Marmol was summoned with the tying runs on base in the eighth inning. He immediately walked pinch-hitter Jeremy Reed, provoking the "uh-oh" that's been the case with Marmol much of the year. But he got Angel Pagan to fly to center and dispatched the Mets quickly in the ninth, including a pair of K's, for his ninth save. If he can keep this up, that's hope for him to be a solid closer next season.

I walked all the way around the lower level of Citi Field today; parts of it, particularly a large food court in center field, reminded me of Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. In fact, the food has been the best part of the ballpark; today's tickets were part of the "Ebbets Club", a semi-fancy enclosed area where you don't have to dress up (as you do for the other private clubs at Citi Field); they have sandwiches and other well-made food there that's a bit above the usual ballpark fare. All of the food, including the chicken quesadilla from last night, has been outstanding. The rest of the park seems kind of generic; Mets fans, as I noted yesterday, were very upset that the huge rotunda was turned into a Brooklyn Dodger/Jackie Robinson memorial with no Mets mentions at all. I do understand the rationale behind honoring Robinson -- but after all, it's a Mets ballpark, and the Dodgers are more than 50 years gone from New York.

One thing that the Mets don't do that almost every other team -- including the Cubs -- do is play some sort of "guess the attendance" game, or, for that matter, even announce the paid crowd. Maybe that's because there are so many no-shows; of the 38,759 that the boxscore says paid today, maybe 20,000-22,000 were in the house. At the prices the Mets are charging (fortunately, I didn't have to pay today), they'll have to do some serious changing in the offseason, or lower ticket prices, or they're going to have a huge attendance decline next year.

Credit to Mets fans, who were universally friendly -- maybe because their team is so far out of the race that they can afford to be -- and Mets employees and New York people in general, whether it be on the street or in the subway. I've never had a bad time here, and a win tomorrow to take this series will make it an even better trip. Randy Wells will take the mound Sunday afternoon -- keep up the good work, and who knows? Maybe a Cubs miracle is still possible.

Fig Nuthin': Diamondbacks 6, Mets 5

Eric Simon — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 02:48:27 -0000

Let's play a game. I'm going to show you two numbers and you have to guess their significance to tonight's game. Easy enough. Ready? Here we go.

6
4

These numbers could mean a lot of things. The Diamondbacks scored six runs. The Mets left four men on base. Angel Pagan hit his sixth triple of the season. The Mets went through their lineup exactly four times. Are any of these things that to which I refer? No, they are not. I'll give you a hint: brainstorm. Give up? Alright, I'll let you in on the fun.

6 = the total number of pitches Jeff Francoeur saw on Monday night.
4 = the number of plate appearances he had.

We all know one game doesn't mean that much. Hell, David Wright only saw eight pitches! Jeremy Reed saw six pitches in his one pinch-hitting appearance. Of course, the problem isn't just one game for Francoeur. Over the expanse of his entire career he has established himself as Mr. Swing-At-Anything. No pitch is too high, low, or otherwise outside the strike zone. Why? Because Francoeur doesn't have a strike zone. Most players look for strikes between the letters and the knees and between the corners of the plate. They don't necessarily look to swing at all of these pitches, but good hitters will acknowledge that these are the rough dimensions of the strike zone, notwithstanding the odd creative umpire. Francoeur's strike zone has no such measurable limitations. Francoeur's strike zone is limited only by the universe of possible endpoints for a ball thrown by a pitcher. Over his head, it's in the zone. In the dirt, it's in the zone. Behind him, in the zone. Practically into the dugout, in his zone. This is it. He's not going to change. Let's just hope the Mets' front office dream team figures this out and rightly non-tenders him this offseason.

The real story of the game was Nelson Figueroa, who gave up six runs on ten hits (three homeruns) and a walk in 1.2 innings and will be DFA'd tomorrow. It takes a stupendously awful pitching performance to make Tim Redding look downright decent by comparison, but Figueroa made it happen. Redding relieved the Fig-bomb and tossed 3.1 scoreless innings of relief while throwing just 43 pitches in the process. The entire Mets bullpen was actually quite effective, giving their offense an opportunity to creep back into the game against Dan Haren. The Mets bunched some hits together to plate three runs in the fifth and a Daniel Murphy Blue-Collar Blast in the sixth brought the Mets to within 6-5. They had a chance to tie it in the eighth when Gary Sheffield doubled with one out, but Murphy popped out to third and Failcoeur grounded out on the first pitch he saw to bring the inning -- and the Mets' last real scoring chance -- to a crashing halt.

One bright spot for the Mets' offense was Pagan, who reached base three times and makes me eat crow everytime I portend his imminent demise. I still assert that he'll have a sub-.300 on-base percentage before the season closes, assuming he doesn't suffer some arbitrary injury before then.

Funny thing I observed: Pagan has six triples in 128 at-bats this season, which seems like a lot.

Johan Santana takes on Joel Pineiro at 7:10pm Tuesday as the Cardinals roll into town for a two-gamer.

Swag Contest

Swag contest results can be found here and the next game's swag form already available. You can read more about the swag contest here.

SB Nation Coverage

* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* AZ Snakepit Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: Angel Pagan, +11.9% WPA, Bobby Parnell, +9.9% WPA
Big losers: Nelson Figueroa, -37.7% WPA, Jeff Francoeur, -15.4% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Murphy solo homerun in sixth, +13.6% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Sheffield GIDP in fifth, -12.5% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: -13.4% WPA
Total batter WPA: -36.6% WPA
GWRBI!: Mark Reynolds

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by Jadden Hopkins; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num	Name	# of Posts
1	Jadden Hopkins	99
2	fxcarden	95
3	Chickendirt	44
4	Abstract NYC	41
5	AnthonyR	36
6	RIPShea	31
7	KeithsMoustache	30
8	Mex_17	30
9	Pat Andriola	28
10	Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright	18

Who Is The Real Angel Pagan?

James Kannengieser — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 10:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Gary Matthews Jr. made this catch once and the Angels gave him $50 million. Don't get any ideas Omar.

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Angel Pagan has performed admirably this season, both at the plate and in the field. His .348 wOBA plays quite well for a center fielder, and would even be respectable for a corner outfielder in the National League. His defense has been above average in limited time, buoyed by a valuable throwing arm according to the advanced defensive metrics. Throw in strong baserunning (last night's 1st inning debacle notwithstanding) and he's been a ~1 WAR performer. Pretty good for a reserve outfielder pressed into full time duty due to a rash of injuries. However, it's not likely to last and any hope that he has a spot as a Mets starter in the future is misguided.

In 2517 career minor league at-bats, Pagan sports a .281/.340/.374 line. This includes just 18 home runs, good for 1 every 140 at-bats. None of these stats are impressive, and it's pretty amazing he has made it onto a major league roster. Even Jeremy Reed enjoyed some minor league success, posting an .864 OPS during his career on the farm. Additionally, Pagan's offensive showing this year is a bit of a mirage. His BABIP of .360 is way above his career figure. Considering he's now 28 years old, his career major league line of .267/.321/.409 looks like a ceiling. We can't ignore thousands of career at-bats when projecting his future performance.

Besides hitting, another of Pagan's issues is injury. He can't seem to stay on the field, whether it's last year's unlucky shoulder injury or this year's groin pull. Like Alex Cora, Pagan is better in small doses.

Pagan won't have much trade value this offseason, barring a miraculous rest of the season. The Mets would be better off holding onto him as a 4th/5th outfielder who has the ability to play center field. With Carlos Beltran likely requiring a decent amount of days off going forward (assuming he plays at all next season), Pagan has some value as a once or twice a week fill-in. Credit Omar Minaya for re-acquiring Pagan for 2 non-factor players before last season, but let's get real - he is not a starting major league outfielder.

Mets Triple Their Fun

Eric Simon — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 14:12:51 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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The Mets hit three triples against the Astros on Sunday, one apiece by Luis Castillo, Jeremy Reed and Angel Pagan. It was the ninth time the Mets accomplished the feat in a nine-inning game and the first time since June 6, 1994, when Ryan Thompson, Kelly Stinnett and Kevin McReynolds each tripled against the Rockies.

The Mets record for triples in a nine-inning game is four, accomplished just once on May 23, 1970, when Ron Swoboda, Al Weis, Tommie Agee and Ken Boswell tripled in a 14-8 loss to the Cubs.