SB Nation - Eugenio Velez

Rick Ankiel: Cheap power for a weird organization?

Grant — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 00:23:39 -0000

I swore I wasn't going to do another "What about this free agent?" post, but they're like crack. I'll get this over with, n00b-FanPost-style:

What about Rick Ankiel? He's a low-OBP, low-BA hacker with serious power who was busted for HGH, but didn't fall off a cliff until the season after, so maybe the decline is unrelated, but he'd be cheap on a one-year deal, and his wOBA was just above .360 the previous two years, yet his defense isn't great shakes, though his arm is tops, and left-handed hitters usually don't hit for power in San Francisco, but maybe Ankiel is an exception. Thoughts????

Ugh. I hate the offseason. What's even worse is that when rosterbating, you have to look at things from the Giants' warped perspective. "So, assuming that Eugenio Velez is a leadoff hitter and corner outfielder worth starting, and assuming that John Bowker is not a good soldier who can help a baseball team by soldiering, what free agents should we look at?"

Rick Ankiel doesn't make sense on a team that should give Bowker a chance to be a cheap, OBP-friendly Ankiel. But you know what they say about hitters who don't like Venezuela: they will consume your team from the inside out like little nanobots shaped like piranha-dogs. I think Earl Weaver used to say that. Makes sense. Why judge a player on a full AAA season when you can judge the player on their willingness to spend their winter in a country with one of the worst murder rates in the world? Man up, and don't get murdered, Nancy.

But if the Giants are going to ignore the existence of Fred Lewis, if Bowker doesn't have a chance to get 400 at-bats with the Giants, and if Nate Schierholtz just swung at a slider that hit his back leg, the Giants will need an outfielder or two. Eugenio Velez is currently penciled in as a starter, despite not having a baseball-related skill (other than raw speed) that's even average.

Eugenio Velez is currently penciled in as a starter, despite not having a baseball-related skill (other than raw speed) that's even average.

When you put it that way, sure, you'll start thinking about players like Ankiel, Xavier Nady, and Ryan Church. What's even more frightening is that Eugenio Velez is currently penciled in as a starter, despite not having a baseball-related skill (other than raw speed) that's even average. So I wouldn't be devastated by a one-year, show-me deal to a guy like Ankiel, who's one of the few players on the market capable of hitting 30 homers for less than $5M. It doesn't make sense until you fall down the rabbit hole in front of the Giants' executive offices, but once you're down, you start hoping for things like this.

What would make the decision easier, though, is if I knew what Ankiel would hit over a stretch of random at-bats in July. And would Ankiel happily go to Venezuela? I have no idea. This player evaluation stuff is hard!

Future Free Agent Mistake Power Rankings, 12/15

Grant — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 20:33:51 -0000

The offseason is quickly dividing the fanbase into two camps:

No moves is good moves. The longer we’re not hearing about a four-year deal to Adam LaRoche, the less likely we’re ever going to hear about one.
WHY AREN’T YOU DOING ANYTHING, SABES? THE MARINERS JUST SIGNED CLIFF LEE AND WE DON’T EVEN HAVE AN OFFER IN TO (hitter) YET?

In the interest of ruining that first sentence before I get a chance to back it up, I’m somewhere in the middle. When I watch the Mariners get a one-year rental to drastically upgrade their team, a part of me secretly envies them, even though I wouldn’t want the Giants to follow suit. They have a shiny new toy. I like shiny new toys. Scott Podsednik would be an itchy sweater made out of possum fur, but you knew that.

The big deals aren’t the only ones that are making me jealous, either. The Blue Jays acquired Michael Taylor from the Phillies for Roy Halladay, and then they turned right around and traded Taylor for Brett Wallace. Hot prospect-for-prospect action! The rarest kind! And while I have my guesses as to who came out ahead (the A’s), we won’t know for a few years. But right now, each team has a shiny new toy. I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t trade Madison Bumgarner for Justin Smoak, but it’d be interesting, at least. We’re halfway through December, and we’re without any interesting. I could use some interesting.

You know what else is interesting? Scott Podsednik on a two-year deal. That’s interesting like a kitchen fire. Maybe interesting isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. I’m scared of interesting and the Giants.

So with no news directly relating to the Giants, but with plenty of news reducing the options the Giants have in free agency, it’s time for another Future Free Agent Mistake Power Rankings. Who will be the Aaron Rowand of 2011? Well, Aaron Rowand, for one. But maybe he’ll have some overpaid company!

Scott Podsednik -- OF -- ↑

Number one with a bullet. A signing that in the best case provides marginal upgrade while swallowing most of a limited budget? Oh, sure, I’ll take two. I think it’s disturbing that a team could seriously think about Eugenio Velez as a leadoff hitter and corner outfielder. More disturbing? That Velez could outproduce the Podsednik from ’07 and ’08 with his thumbs taped together. But don’t worry: when 34-year-olds drastically improve, those gains usually stick. Or is it the other way around? This baseball stuff is confusing!

Adam LaRoche-- 1b -- ↑

It’s hard to be this high on the list when you’re a player who would improve the team over the internal options, but LaRoche’s ridiculous contract demands, combined with merely decent production, makes this a great chance to rowand the Giants into a corner by the end of the contract.

Marlon Byrd -- OF -- ↓

With Mike Cameron off the market, Byrd is one of the better center fielders, and it’s been almost two years since Sabean has signed a center fielder. His palms are sweaty, his mouth is dry, and his sponsor isn’t returning his calls. Mmmmm. An overpriced center fielder sounds pretty good right about now, especially when you’re still kicking yourself for missing out on Gary Matthews, Jr.

Jermaine Dye -- OF -- ↓

Sabean explicitly mentioned Dye as someone the Giants aren’t interested in. But I think that’s like when I tell my wife something like, "No, I don’t even really find Jessica Alba that attractive. Her earlobes aren’t symmetrical, and you know how I am about that." I have trust issues with our intrepid GM.

Mark DeRosa—3B/LF -- ↑

At the right price, I’d welcome DeRosa. He’s not going to get the right price. DeRosa’s decline last year might have been age related, but it might have been a BABIP-influenced fluke. I sure as heck wouldn’t commit millions to the latter theory, but if he’s starting in left field instead of Velez, I might be able to ignore the horrible contract for a year. And it will be a horrible contract.

Jason Bay-- OF -- ↑

He says he has no interest in the Giants. The Giants say they have no interest in him. There are still rumors floating around that the Giants really are interested. So when I read that Bay said he’s not interested in San Francisco, I’m guessing he said it while doing that money pantomime thing, rubbing his thumb and fingers together while he raises his eyebrows and gives you that look.

Garrett Atkins -- DH -- ↑

I’ll admit, the 2006 and 2007 versions are intriguing, but chasing after past glories only makes sense if it’s cheap. That, and Atkins is the worst defensive third baseman in the history of the game. Would it be in poor taste to suggest that Ron Santo has better range, even today? Yes? Okay, then I won’t write that. But Atkins is an abomination. Maybe he’s better at first, but he isn’t that likely to be a good enough hitter to displace Travis Ishikawa. I’d take Atkins over Ishikawa, but only for a few hundred thousand dollars’ difference.

Inconsequential Sub-Mediocre Free Agent Catcher -- C -- ↓

It’s going to happen, so the exact one – Miguel Olivo, Rod Barajas, Mike Sadek – doesn’t really matter. And as long as it isn’t a two-year deal, I can almost accept it, but you know whomever they acquire will play 150 games under Bochy. In GiantsLand, a catcher can make up for a .290 on-base percentage by calling a good game and handling a staff, so there’s no question that SMFAC will be more valuable than Buster Posey next year.

Johnny Damon -- OF -- ↓

He can probably still hit, and he isn’t Scott Podsednik. Heck, I think I might be in favor of a Damon deal at this point. The only problem is that if he’s going to take two years, he’ll probably just take it from the Yankees.

Hank Blalock -- 3B? -- ↓

No one is talking about him, and that scares me. I can imagine DeRosa, Nick Johnson, and LaRoche all taking other offers on the same day, leaving the Giants in a Garkoless panic.

I guess these rankings are, by design, doom-and-gloom. Maybe that’s not fair. But the Giants and free agency in the past few years have mixed like diarrhea and first dates. So, please, forgive me and the black cloud over my head.

Winter Meetings, Day Three: A Byrd in the hand is worth, like, $2M, tops.

Grant — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 19:31:56 -0000

With Twitter mavens bringing in every stray rumor written on the bathroom wall, this year's Winter Meetings are insufferable. Don't like a player? Don't think he'd be a good fit? Well, people from the St. Olaf Bugler, USA Today, and The Economist are all tweeting that the Giants are extremely interested in that player. Blood pressure up, lucidity down, and we're only 40% through the week.

The rumors make for a neat little fantasyworld, even though there's no way to discern which ones are legit. Brian Sabean might have called the Padres and said something like, "Hey, we have two guys I don't really want to make room for on my bench. Are you giving Kevin Kouzmanoff away?" and the Padres might have chuckled, but the rumor is filtered as: "GIANTS IN ON KOUZ; PADS NOT WACKY ABOUT FRANDSO AND FLEW" by the time newsies are singing it on the the street corners.

And it's tough to take quotes seriously, even when they're straight from the source. There's nothing to gain by raising expectations. After the breathless C.C. Sabathimania of last year's offseason -- the next person to mention a "hometown discount" gets an oyster fork to the throat -- there's no reason for Sabean to say, "Oh, yeah, we have the money for someone like Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. We hope they like us. Are they looking at us? DON'T LOOK! Oh my god, did they see you? Are they looking at us? We totally like them." If those tires need kicking, it's best if they're kicked in the dark when no one else is looking.

If the best options don't like us like us, though, there's also nothing to gain by saying things like...

Man, if we have to start Eugenio Velez in left, we are screwed. Like, totally screwed. And we don't really think Edgar Renteria can still play, by the by. He's done, but, what, are we going to try Brian Bocock again?

It makes sense that the Giants would express faith in the fallback options and the de facto starters, even if there isn't a whole lot of supporting evidence behind the words.

(At this point, my post turned into another 500-word screed against a front office that believes Eugenio Velez is a viable corner outfielder on a team trying to improve an offense. It really did, and it included the words "freak jousting accident" and "spindly baserunning nonsense." I'm not really sure what it had to do with the Winter Meetings, but that's what this time of year does to a fella. The screed will be included on the second disc of the McCovey Chronicles DVD.)

So now that we've established that there's nothing worth believing, the Giants are linked to Marlon Byrd, Mike Cameron, Nick Johnson, Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, and maybe even Jason Bay. But not Jermaine Dye, which is disinterest I want to believe in, but I just can't yet. I'd be fine with most of those names on one-year deals, begrudgingly accepting of most on two-year deals, and mortified at anything at three years and beyond for anyone not named Matt Holliday. Well, and Jason Bay, but I don't want to admit that, lest I be beaten with a UZR stick. Those things hurt.

Winter Meetings Day Three Continuation Thread.

NL West in Review: Left Fielders

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 06:00:41 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

A Rockies' draft pick was the most valuable LF in the NL West last season. It wasn't this guy though...

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Barry Bonds must have set a hex on the NL West.

In 2009, the Dodgers had easily the most talented left fielder in the division. When Manny received his infamous suspension, Juan Pierre made sure that Los Angeles didn't miss a beat.

Gerardo Parra appeared on the Rookie of the Year ballot.

The Rockies saw Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez emerge from the bench and minors to become their most dangerous left-handed bats in the lineup.

And yet, the Giants still finish atop the WAR rankings, even though I'm pretty sure every player the Giants played in left field received death threats from MCC. How did they do it? UZR, of course.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Francisco	5	.269	11	59	.328	.411	.340	4.66
2. Los Angeles	4	.302	18	86	.407	.469	.377	4.57
3. Colorado	5	.268	20	74	.332	.440	.346	3.94
4. Arizona	6	.265	13	82	.319	.310	.402	2.10
5. San Diego	8	.250	12	76	.325	.371	.320	0.24

With the positional RAR set at -7.5, here is your chart:

The actual player rankings hold some certain surprises for you:

This time, I have included the full rankings. I'm still messing with the format, so let me know if this blinds you:

This spot may be the most interesting to follow in the offseason. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday have been linked to the Giants, but it appears San Francisco will favor multiple smaller fish instead. The club's 2009 WAR in LF is pretty flukey, as multiple players hit better in LF than at other positions, and I don't quite trust that UZR. It would be a good place to improve. If no one is added, that Velez/Lewis/Torres/Schierholtz hodgepodge will continue.

NL West in Review: 2nd Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 19:00:36 -0000

More photos » by Matt York - AP

Felipe Lopez only got in a half season in the NL West, but was he good enough to be the best 2B in the division in 2009?

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Introduction

Before getting to the second base rankings, I thought I would touch on a peripheral discussion on the accuracy of WAR. It is important to understand that even the WAR found at Fangraphs isn't absolute. The methodology of chosen inputs can make the final numbers vary slightly, or in some cases, drastically. The best example of this is this year's season by Ricky Nolasco, who was a 4.0 WAR pitcher from Fangraphs, but just a 1.0 WAR pitcher via Rally's historical database. The quick explanation is that Fangraphs' input is FIP, while Rally's is more based on actual runs allowed and BABIP.

In my case, I'm using Statcorner's component park factors, while Fangraphs has their own methodology for park effects. That is why some of my numbers will vary some from Fangraphs' data. For instance, I have Orlando Hudson as a 2.52 WAR second baseman, while Fangraphs has him at 2.9 WAR. Which is right? I think it's a matter of preference.

A few weeks ago, Dave Cameron wrote an article entitled WAR: It Works, which defended their methodology by finding a 0.83 correlation between a team's total WAR and final record (for comparison, Pythageorean W-L has a 0.91 correlation). So it does a decent job, but there's some understandable noise in the data.

Method

See the full methodology as explained last week. Last Monday, I omitted stolen bases and caught stealings from my value calculations. It turns out Fangraphs' positional splits are accurate to positional at-bats, and Baseball Reference's positional splits are not accurate for stolen bases and caught stealings. As it turns out, first basemen don't steal much, so that omission made practically no difference.

However, second basemen do tend employ the running game, so I did the extra legwork of utilizing ESPN.com's positional splits to extract SB/CS data. It didn't make a great deal of difference. Four teams saw their team wOBA* increase by .001, while the Rockies dropped by .001. Clint Barmes, who led all NL West 2B in caught stealings with nine, was the only prominent player to be affected, who dropped one slot in the rankings.

Read the results after the jump.

Results

No NL West team had complete personnel consistency at second base, but that didn't stop Arizona from far surpassing the rest of the division with some surprise production from their second-sackers.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. Arizona	4	.298	15	49	.372	.448	.362	5.97
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	12	77	.356	.424	.347	3.19
3. Colorado	5	.231	31	98	.281	.441	.301	0.80
4. San Francisco	7	.236	17	80	.281	.329	.281	-0.26
5. San Diego	5	.246	2	58	.315	.314	.292	-1.04

Brendan Scolari's calculations had Arizona projected to be the weakest team at second base this season, but the other four teams fell in line as expected from there.

Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5.

The second base position was exceedingly interesting, in my opinion. To wit: the most valuable player was also the fifth least valuable fielder; the worst and best fielders came from the same team; the man with the third most homers was the fourth worst second baseman; and, one team had four second basemen in the top seven in the division:

There were 27 total second basemen, and you can view the complete rankings and data here in Google Docs. Here are the top and bottom five:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Orlando Hudson	LAD	627	.285	9	62	.359	.420	.345	-3.7	2.52
2	Felipe Lopez	AZ	375	.305	6	25	.366	.417	.351	3.8	2.25
3	Ryan Roberts	AZ	199	.303	7	16	.374	.506	.383	2.3	1.65
4	Clint Barmes	COL	551	.238	22	69	.286	.437	.301	7.0	1.60
5	Juan Uribe	SFG	131	.274	6	15	.331	.538	.380	3.5	1.25
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
23	Edgar Gonzalez	SDP	54	.234	0	3	.315	.319	.289	-2.1	-0.17
24	Ian Stewart	COL	73	.235	8	26	.274	.632	.349	-7.5	-0.39
25	Luis Rodriguez	SDP	102	.200	1	7	.294	.256	.266	-4.1	-0.48
26	Emmanuel Burriss	SFG	220	.238	0	13	.292	.267	.265	-3.7	-0.53
27	Eugenio Velez	SFG	106	.198	1	8	.226	.287	.231	-4.7	-0.80

Note To Self: Read Brandon Kruse Before My 2010 Drafts

raygu — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 13:00:31 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

2 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays' Ben Zobrist lines a second inning RBI single off New York Yankees pitcher CC Sabathia during a baseball game Friday, Oct. 2, 2009 in St. Petersburg, Fla. Rays' Jason Bartlett scored on the hit. Catching for the Yankees is Jorge Posada. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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I know what you are saying. Who in the world is Brandon Kruse. Brandon Kruse writes for Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster. A few days ago, I was flipping through my 2009 Baseball Forecaster and stumbled upon his article titled: "Speculating on Breakouts-1". Kruse looked players who had a Rotisserie value of $10 or less the prior year and who met all of the BaseballHQ filters for their respective breakout profile. Had I read this article before my 2009 drafts I could have had a few sleeper hitters who had breakout years in 2009. Here is who he wrote about-9 players in all:

1. Brian Anderson (OF, CWS)

2. Erick Aybar (SS, LAA)

3. Manny DelCarmen (RP, BOS)

4. Joe Mather (OF, STL)

5. Martin Prado (MI, ATL)

6. Ramon Ramirez (RP, KC)

7. Seth Smith (OF, COL)

8. Eugenio Velez (2B/OF, SF)

9. Ben Zobrist (SS/OF, TB)

Well, it's obvious not everyone on this list had a breakout season, but a few really standout. Ben Zobrist had a huge breakout season going 27-91-91-17-.297. Can he duplicate his performance in 2010?

Martin Prado had a nice breakout season as well. He took over the 2B job from soon-to-be-traded 2B Kelly Johnson. In 450 ABs, Prado went 11-49-64-.307 with 38 doubles.

The Rockies Seth Smith had a breakout season also. In 335 ABs, he went 15-55-61-4-.293. Those numbers project to around 25 HRs and 85 RBIs if he played everyday, which could happen should Colorado were to deal RFer Brad Hawpe in the offseason.

In his first year as a full-time starter, Erick Aybar went 5-58-70-14-.312 in just over 500 ABs for the Angels this year. He is one of the reasons why SS Brandon Wood rides the pine when he gets called up to the big league club.

Everyone looks for sleeper picks before their drafts. I suggest taking a look at Kruse's article in the 2010 version of Shandler's Baseball Forecaster before your drafts in 2010.

Poll

Will Ben Zobrist duplicate his 2009 performance in 2010?

Yes, he's Chase Utley Lite.

27 votes

No, he will regress a little bit.

47 votes

74 votes | Poll has closed

Sour Grapes and the Giants

Grant — Thu, 08 Oct 2009 18:54:07 -0000

After putting my daughter to bed last night, I sat on the couch and watched the Dodgers/Cardinals game. I had a glass of Bulleit Bourbon on one side and a gigantic cat on the other. I sipped the bourbon. I watched some baseball. I skritched the cat.

The Giants not making the playoffs is a bad thing, but there are some benefits. In an alternate reality, the Giants did squeak into the playoffs. I had a chance to interview Alternate Reality Grant for just a bit:

Me: So, how are things?
Alternate Reality Me: Oh, just fine.

Me: Just fine?

ARM: A-OK.

Me: You aren't unbelievably nervous or stressed out?

ARM: Nope. I'm cool.

Me: So I'll assume that the huge wet spot on the front of your jeans isn't urine, and that you're not incontinent.

ARM: Nah. That's not urine.

Me: Good.

ARM: I think it's bile. I think I'm urinating bile. It stings. I'm cold. Is it game time? I'm cold. I just want to wrap myself in red-white-and-blue bunting and go to sleep. Will you stay with me? Oh, god, another wave is coming. I need to ride the wave. Here's a spoon. Make sure I don't swallow my tongue. Here comes the wave. Ride the wave. I'm cold.

Really, I'm a lot of fun when the Giants make the playoffs. But there's something to, you know, being able to relax.

This period of relaxation allows me to calmly discuss who would be the 2009 playoff goat in that alternate reality. Who would have given us the Candy Maldonado sliding non-catch? Who would have given us the Shawn Estes baserunning magic? Who would have given us the Jose Cruz, Jr. clank of Gold Glove irony? There are a few different directions you could go:

The obvious

Eugenio Velez misjudging a fly ball in the ninth inning. Fred Lewis muffing a fly ball, then stepping on his sunglasses as he tries to pick the ball up. Ryan Garko popping up to shallow left in ten straight appearances with the bases loaded. Bobby Howry allowing walkoff home runs even when the Giants play at home. These kinds of scenarios would be entirely predictable, even if some of the scenarios represent an overblown portion of a player's overall contribution.

The surprise

This is more like the Jose Cruz, Jr. thing. Someone does something well all season, and then stinks up a single play to ruin all of the good that preceded it. Tim Lincecum walking seven in three innings. Pablo Sandoval hitting into a double play every time he comes up with runners on base. An error by Travis Ishikawa after he comes into the game as a defensive replacement.

The Barry Zito

Somehow, the stars align to get Zito the start of the fifth game of the Divisional Series. He pitches like the Zito of old. Not old-old, like when he won the Cy Young, but new-old, like when he started with the Giants. Certainly not new-new, which is more like old-new, and we're all fine with that Zito. I forget where this is going, but no matter how well Zito pitches for the Giants in a given year, if he gets knocked around in a crucial playoff start, all we'd hear that offseason is "$126 million! $126 million!"

The ultimate humiliation

Scrapping through the Divisional Series and the NLCS to get to the World Series...only to get manhandledly swept by the Yankees. That isn't a real word yet, but it would have entered the lexicon after a four-game romp that would have made 1989 look like a collection of nail-biters. There isn't a current adverb that could really get across a 34-2 series run differential. Manhandedly would have done nicely, though.

The ultimate pain

Losing to the Dodgers in the NLCS. On a walk-off home run by Andre Ethier. With Russell Martin on base. Who got there after a blown call at first with two outs in the ninth in Game Seven with the Giants up by one. I mean, use your imagination, folks. This could have been an all-time, give-up-baseball-for-needlepoint kind of season.

So this is an Open Sour Grapes Post. How would the Giants have broken your heart in the 2009 playoffs? Because they wouldn't have won the World Series. Definitely not. There wasn't a chance. And I bet those grapes I can't reach are totally sour. Like, yuck. My cheeks are puckering just thinking about them.

The success of the season; the pessimism of the offseason

Grant — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 18:37:45 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

I am but one man in the shape of two. I cannot do this alone.

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Right about now, there’s a news conference going on. Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean are taking questions about the 2009 season, and the rumor is that they’ll also be talking about the new extensions they received. Going into the season, most of the folks around here had the Giants at .500 or below. Heck, one regular said he’d do something "outlandish and crazy" if the Giants win anywhere near 90 games. The Giants won 88. So this season is an obvious success.

Right?

A lot of people would have been happy with .500. It would have been measurable progress for a rebuilding team. The Giants exceeded expectations. They took our modest goals, and surpassed them. It goes without saying that the season is an unqualified success.

Right?

So why does it feel like there’s a sneeze-cloud of pessimism over the salad bar of the offseason? Why are there so many grumblers after a season in which the Giants blew our collective minds? Why the feeling of impending doom?

This could be a 600-page book, really, filled with psychoanalytical ramblings, pie charts, and anecdotes. I’ll try and keep it simple: I feel uncomfortable about the offseason because I still don’t think that either of the two folks speaking at the press conference right now learned anything about what makes a bad offense bad. I think there’s going to be a lot of talk about "execution" and "fundamentals." Here’s what I’d want to hear in a press conference:

Why did we struggle to score runs? We made too many outs, we didn’t hit for a lot of power, we made too many outs, and we made too many outs. We gave away too many at-bats by being too aggressive. Can you believe that Pablo Sandoval led this team in walks? That’s insane. He was swinging at balls over his head this April, and he ends the season as our most patient hitter. Something has to change.

There’s no way, though. We’ll hear about Eugenio Velez’s magical resurrection after he was brought back from Fresno (.321 on-base percentage in the second half), we’ll hear about how Bengie Molina did everything he could in a role everyone agrees he’s not suited for (.285 on-base percentage), and how when Freddy Sanchez was in the lineup, things started clicking (.295 on-base percentage for the Giants). These are the things they’ll hope stay the same for next year.

There should be an opening at shortstop. There won’t be. Renteria was hurt, therefore it doesn’t count that he’s been an impressively awful hitter for two straight years who can’t make up the value on defense with his limited range. There’s going to be a spot open at first base, but that might be filled by our current third baseman, who would move over to make room for the player who could easily replace Renteria. There’s going to be at least one outfield spot up for grabs, and it will almost certainly go to a mid-priced free agent veteran who won’t represent any sort of upgrade over the under-30, in-house options. There’s going to be an opening at catcher, unless they decide that the worst on-base percentage in the National League is something the Giants would be lost without.

That’s a team with a lot of openings. That’s also a complete lack of faith that the short-term moves will be successful in fixing a bad offense.

I’m optimistic about Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum. Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito gave me hope that they’ll be able to contribute for a full season in 2010. I’ve always enjoyed Sabean’s non-Benitez bullpen additions, for the most part, and with a core of Affeldt/Romo/Wilson coming back, there’s a chance that the pitching will be as strong next year. The feeling, then, isn’t of impending doom; it’s of impending stasis. It’s a fear that the next year is just going to be more of the same: fantastic pitching wasted by an ineffective offense. And, heck, maybe they’ll have the exact same season, and maybe 88 wins will win a playoff spot next year. It's more likely, though, that a similarly built team will fall short of the playoffs again.

I want to be so, so wrong. I want to look like an idiot by March, and I want to look even dumber in October. I want the failures of this post to be repeated, recounted, and rubbed in my face like the messy little basset hound I am. But I’ve watched Brian Sabean build an offense after he was spotted the greatest hitter of the last 50 years, and I’ve watched him build an offense without that player. I’m almost convinced that Sabean uses batting average, RBI, and general scouting reports as his primary player evaluation tools. I’m almost convinced that Bochy uses his eyes and his gut feelings. And I’m certainly convinced that the Giants’ offense needs a hell of a lot more.

Comment starter: Was the season a success, and am I a loon for being anything other than optimistic?

Fixing the Giants Offense, Part I: Just Do Nothing

Grant — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 16:37:54 -0000

The offseason hasn't even started yet. I already hate the offseason. The hopes of improving the Giants' offense are dead; long live the hopes of improving the Giants' offense.

The team wants to re-sign Juan Uribe, which is a fine idea. But they want to sign Juan Uribe to start at second or third. The Giants' yer-only-good-as-yer-last-200-at-bats organizational philosophy doesn't see how it's possible that a player can decline after a good season. Randy Winn had a heckuva run before the Giants extended him, and he kept producing at that same level, averaging almost 30 home runs a year. Aaron Rowand was a 25-homer guy when the Giants signed him, and, gee, no one's regretting that move, what with Rowand continuing to be a middle-of-the-order force. So when you're looking to repair a completely broken offense, the first question you should ask yourself is, "Are there any 30-somethings who are coming off good seasons that were totally unexpected?" That's where they hide the gold in this league, people.

If Uribe hits like he did this year, he'd be perfectly fine at second or third. The odds of that happening are less than stellar. You have to factor in a possible decline with Uribe. And if he drops back to the performance level of his previous two seasons, he'll be another millstone around the neck of the offense. That's a big leap of faith.

If I were running the team, though, I'd re-sign Uribe too. And I'd promise him a starting job. So I'm not anti-Uribe. He should be the starting shortstop next year. I had a chance to talk with Giants Brass about this, and our conversation is after the jump.

Giants Brass: Whoa, whoa, whoa. But we have Edgar Renteria.
McC: ...who is one of the worst regular players in baseball. His offense is so poor that he'd be a bad player if he were a Gold Glover, which he most certainly is not. He plays the game as if he's encased in a Jello mold, and he's trying slowly fight his way out.

Giants Brass: Well, give him a chance. He was injured.

McC: Even if that's true, even if for the past two seasons his abysmal performances were due to injury, why would you expect him to get better? He's getting older, not younger. When you re-sign Juan Uribe and start him anywhere but short, you're doubling your risk. You're saying, "Well, I hope this 34-year-old, nicked up shortstop can stop being terrible, and I hope this 30-year-old player who had his best season in five years doesn't regress." Why not minimize the risk and say, "I hope this 30-year-old player doesn't regress...but if he does, at least he won't be worse than the player he's replacing, and we'll be able to upgrade another position in the lineup."

Giants Brass: But Renteria makes $9M. He has to start.

McC: Would you like to pay $9M and have a good shortstop, or would you like to pay $9M and have an awful shortstop?

Giants Brass: Uh. The first one?

McC: Good. Because you're going to pay $9M regardless. So you might as well find a good shortstop.

Giants Brass: But Renteria makes $9M. He has to start.

several hours later, after three PowerPoint presentations

McC: So, as you can see, the concept of "sunk costs" applies to baseball as well. You're paying Renteria $9M, yes. But that doesn't mean he's an asset to the team. So if you can find a better player who improves the team, you do it. That $9M isn't coming back, so there's no sense in paying all that money and getting a lackluster performance in exchange.

Giants Brass: Okay, smart guy, answer me this: Why wouldn't Renteria start if we pay him the kind of money that starting players usually get. Hmmm?

McC: Let's move on. So you're plan is to put Uribe at third, moving Sandoval over to first. Edgar keeps his starting job. Rowand starts in center.

Giants Brass: Have you seen what that guy makes? He must be some player!

McC: So that leaves second base as an open position, and...

Giants Brass: I'm pretty sure we'll find a way to keep Freddy Sanchez. He hit .284 for us!

McC: Uh, okay. So now you have two outfield spots to play with, and....

Giants Brass: Oh, no. We're going to start Andres Torres and Eugenio Velez in left. Vrrrrrrrooom!

McC: ...

Giants Brass: Vrrrrrrrooom!

McC: So you have one outfield spot with which to fix the entire offense.

Giants Brass: It'll be tough, especially if Bengie doesn't come back. I mean, the drop off from Molina to Whiteside will be huge over 162 games.

McC: Do you have any players in mind?

Giants Brass: Well, not Matt Holliday or Jason Bay. They'll require contracts that are too big, and they're not worth the long-term risks.

McC: Wow. I agree wi...

Giants Brass: Just kidding. We'll pursue them as if they will fix the offense single-handedly, but they won't want to come here. No, but there are a bunch of options out there. Marlon Byrd is over 30, and he's likely to just keep getting better. He hits for a little power in Texas, which will obviously translate well here, he doesn't take walks...he's perfect. Garret Anderson is due for a breakout season. Randy Winn is due to rebound. We have a bunch of options.

McC: Thank you for your time. Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go commit hari kari.

Giants Brass: Good luck! I don't even think he's broadcasting for the Cubs anymore, but he is crazy. I saw a documentary once where he talked about the moon being made of spare ribs. Crazy stuff!

McC: ...

Giants Brass: Vrrrrrroooom!

This team is going to want to rebuild a very bad offense, yet they're committed to retaining one of the worst pieces of that offense, even though he doesn't provide any defensive upgrade, and even though there's a capable replacement who wants to come back to the team. I don't get it.

The Giants and Minor League Evaluation

Grant — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:57:18 -0000

Not much time for a ton of writing today, so I'll just ask your help for possible posts down the road. I'm trying to make a list of examples of the Giants ignoring minor league performance in their hitter evaluation process in the Brian Sabean era.

Rich Aurilia -- Fine numbers for a AAA shortstop, blocked by Jose Vizcaino because he was the "get one free" part of the Jeff Kent trade.
Todd Linden -- Stellar numbers in AAA, never given a chance (note: this is a list of examples for better or for worse. It was almost assuredly a good thing that Linden didn't get a chance as a starter.)
Dan Ortmeier -- Very little power, contact, or on-base skills in the minors, fluked his way into a .497 slugging percentage in 157 major league at-bats, taken seriously as a candidate for a starting 1B job in the majors
Kevin Frandsen -- Career .317/.380/.452 hitter in the minors, blocked by vets and rooks alike. Also a career .241/.306/.342 hitter in the majors in over 450 at-bats, so this might be more of a Linden situation rather than a crime against player evaluation.
Nate Schierholtz -- Career .308/.355/.516 hitter in the minors, blocked by vets and rooks alike. Also a career .287/.318/.408 hitter in the majors in over 450 at-bats, so...hey, that reads familiar.
Brian Bocock -- A year after hitting .220 in A-ball, he was the Opening Day shortstop. Seriously.
Emmanuel Burriss -- Two years after hitting .165 in A-ball, he was the Opening Day second baseman. Seriously.
John Bowker -- Hit .342/.451/.596 with a reworked approach in AAA. The player standing in the way of a starting job in the majors hasn't hit a home run since April.
Buster Posey -- Isn't likely to have an on-base percentage below .300, which makes him a special offensive catcher in this organization's history. Needs to prove his worth to get a single start; won't get a single start until he proves his worth.
Eugenio Velez -- Nothing in his minor league career, other than a fine age-24 season in low-A, suggests he'll be more than a fine bench player. Because he had a ridiculously hot 80 at-bats when he was called up, though, he's a starting outfielder. And he's done just fine, mind you. But he also starts against left-handers, against whom he's hit .241/.288/.353 over his minor league career and .212/.287/.260 in his major league career.

No thesis, really. I'm just trying to figure out why the Giants completely ignore minor league statistics when they evaluate hitters. Actually, I guess I'm trying to figure out if they ignore minor league stats, and if that's even helped the team on a few occassions. Please help me fill in any gaps or omissions. Also let me know if I'm cherry-picking and/or making too much out of nothing. Also, feel free to ignore baseball entirely and talk about lunch, as that's what you're going to do anyways.