SB Nation - Adrian Gonzalez

The 2009 Off Season's Impact On The Future

ltrain2 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:04:42 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, right, and manager Terry Francona are concerned with much more than just the matters related to 2010's team.

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The Red Sox, beleaguered by talks of a 'bridge period' earlier this off season, caught fans slightly by surprise with their recent flurry of activity within the MLB's Hot Stove Market. Marco Scutaro's arrival in Boston may not have warranted much commotion given the nature of his contract (the length in particular), but the lucrative 5-year deal awarded to pitcher John Lackey has some questioning the exact direction that general manager Theo Epstein is taking the club and the future of pitcher Josh Beckett in particular.

After a very quiet beginning to the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox designated nearly $25 million for next season's payroll with the additions of Mike Cameron and John Lackey alone, moves that will certainly effect those that subsequently follow -- both this season as well as the next.

What does this mean for the likes of Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez, both with expiring contracts, especially considering the addition of Lackey and the potential free-agency of catcher Joe Mauer? With over $50 million in expiring contracts coming off the books following this season, how will management approach the free-agent class of 2010, considered by many to be one of the deepest of its kind in relation to available impact players? If this season is still considered a bridge to the future, then what can fans expect to see from the front office at this time next year?

At the moment, Boston's payroll is hovering around the $170 million dollar mark for the 2010 season (which includes the money owed to former shortstop Julio Lugo). The following players are in the final year of their current contracts; David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Julio Lugo -- contracts that total $55 million. Assuming that Boston doesn't restructure any of the deals involving the aforementioned players, that gives management a large sum of financial freedom to address the incoming class of free-agents, a group that boasts talent trumping that which is offered in this year's crop.

Many have likened the situation to that which resulted in the Red Sox's 2007 World Series Championship. Prior to that season Epstein spent nearly $210 million ($209.1 to be exact) in acquiring J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Again, with the assumption that none of the following players are awarded new deals during the upcoming season, here's a look at the free-agent class of 2010: Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Lance Berkman, Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Pena, Brandon Webb, Jayson Werth. It's a safe bet that someone like Jeter will be retained by the Yankees, but even that scenario leaves a slew of All-Star caliber talent available for the taking.

Similar to last season when the Yankees cleared themselves of nearly $70 million in contractual commitments that led to the signings of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, and ultimately a World Series Championship, Boston will find themselves in a very enviable position heading into next year's Hot Stove action.

It's a safe bet that Boston decides to let the contracts of Varitek and Lowell expire, but what about Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez?

After the signing of John Lackey, Theo Epstein immediately sent a text message assuring Josh Beckett that the addition of Lackey will in no way effect Boston's interest in re-signing him. However, we've seen this before, and nobody can blame Beckett for remaining skeptical regardless of how convincing Epstein may have appeared. After acquiring Curt Schilling in 2003, management sent a similar message to then staff-ace Pedro Martinez, who also found himself entering a contract year at that time. Martinez was not a member of the Red Sox in 2005 as management was never able to work out a deal to retain the right-hander, leading many to question Beckett's future in Boston. John Lackey received a 5-year deal worth $82.5 million dollars this off-season, raising speculation as to how serious the team is about keeping Beckett. It's hard to ignore the likenesses between Lackey and Beckett as pitchers, and with Lackey receiving a contract similar to that which Beckett is expected to command; did Boston simply sign Lackey to replace Beckett upon his departure? The situation is eerily similar to that which led to the end of the 'Pedro era' in Boston.

Victor Martinez is considered a very valuable commodity amongst the Red Sox's lineup. Martinez's ability to play both catcher and first base at a high level makes him just that much more appealing to the Red Sox, who currently owe him just under $8 million this season, making him widely considered one of the best bargains in baseball. However, there has been a lot of discussion recently surrounding the potential trading of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox by the San Diego Padres. If that happens, how will it effect the way in which Boston approaches Martinez's expiring contract? With the versatile slugger likely to command big money in the open market, will Theo then shift his focus to Joe Mauer, assuming that he isn't re-signed by Minnesota this season? With Gonzalez coming to Boston in this scenario, Martinez's ability to play first base becomes less relevant in relation to addressing the team's need for a catcher. It's no secret that Theo loves the type of player that Mauer embodies, and with good reason, as Mauer is regarded as one of the best all-around talents in baseball. Martinez is an ample catcher, but Mauer is a great one. Couple that with the upgrade that Mauer would represent offensively as opposed to V-Mart and it's not a stretch to assume that the Red Sox would rather utilize a good sum of that newly available $55 million on the former MVP/All-Star/Batting Champion/Gold Glover [Mauer].

On the other hand, it's worth mentioning that there has been some speculation that the Red Sox may plan to invest in both Martinez and Mauer, shifting Victor to first base and affording them a more than acceptable option behind the plate on days that they would decide to rest Mauer. Obviously this scenario becomes more likely in the event that Adrian Gonzalez is not acquired via trade.

Another key element that makes Martinez less of a necessity is the availability of Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena next off season, both viable options to fill the void at first base in the event that Boston is unable to retain Martinez. Similarly, Beckett's contract demands may become less appealing given the pending free-agent status' of pitchers Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb and the newly acquired Lackey.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz may also find their time in Boston heavily influenced by the free-agent class of 2010 and the moves made to this point in 2009. Both players have been mentioned in discussions surrounding potential trade scenarios involving Adrian Gonzalez. Does Ellsbury become more expendable with Werth and Crawford being available next season, as well as the recent signing of Mike Cameron? Does Buchholz become easier to part with given the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman and the potential free-agency of both Lee and Webb?

Every move that management makes from here on out must be calculated and will be heavily dependent on other deals that are or are not completed. For instance -- the addition of Lackey aside, even the situation at the catcher position effects the likelihood that starting pitcher Josh Beckett remains with the Red Sox.

Joe Mauer is believed to be in line to receive one of largest contracts in baseball history from whomever he decides to sign with. Therefore, if Martinez opts to explore free-agency and Boston decides to make a push for Mauer, it becomes less likely that they do so successfully while still being able to afford Beckett. Again, John Lackey's signing plays a major role in this as well. It's easier to let Beckett go and pursue Mauer with Lackey locked up for five seasons, and harder to justify retaining Beckett with the same thing in mind.

Going full-circle, it's easier to let Martinez walk with the addition of Gonzalez. In the event that Gonzalez is acquired, it becomes more feasible that Boston goes after Mauer, letting Martinez go and possibly making a concerted effort to retain Beckett.

It is still my belief that the Red Sox are pushing hard to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. In a previous article listed here, I explain that the Red Sox's moves to this point lead me to believe that Gonzalez is the most important player currently on Boston's radar. For one, signing Aroldis Chapman could help justify trading a young pitcher like Buchholz. Also, given the Red Sox's payroll commitments for 2010 and their still-glaring need to acquire a power-hitting corner infielder, the friendly nature of Gonzalez's contract for the next two seasons makes him the most appealing option for Boston if they truly desire an impact player to fill that void while still remaining within the $170 million dollar payroll goal set by Epstein.

However, the Gonzalez trade would be a blockbuster-type deal and is anything but a certainty. In the event that no progress is made in relation to Gonzalez, I think that Boston will shift their attention away from Beckett for the time being and make Victor Martinez their primary focus this season in terms of restructuring any of the expiring contracts. Talks with Martinez will likely correspond with the progress made by Minnesota in retaining Mauer. If it appears that Mauer will re-sign, Martinez should become priority number one in Boston. In the event that Mauer and the Twins cannot find common ground, the Red Sox will assess how badly they want to pursue Mauer, whether it be via trade or during the 2010 off season.

The point being that the signing of John Lackey, as well as any move made from this point on, does more than impact the future of Josh Beckett and the outlook of next year's club. Each move shifts the potential makeup of the roster for years to come. The job of a general manager is one of the most stress-inducing positions in sports for a reason and is not for short-sighted individuals. You can bet that Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office are making every move during the course of this off season with the next one in the back of their minds.

Poll

Who will most likely be a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2011?

Will Kotchman be the Red Sox starting First Baseman for 2010?

wolf9309 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:12:34 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Casey Kotchman, right, follows through on his RBI-single against the Toronto Blue Jays during the eighth inning of a baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston, Friday, Aug. 28, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

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According To Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston, there's a good chance he will be.

In an article from Wednesday night, Edes says that the Red Sox have pretty much withdrawn themselves from negotiations for 3B Adrian Beltre because they are unhappy with the price Scott Boras is asking for him.

Kotchman played very little for the Sox since coming over last year, but did not perform well, hitting just .218. The thinking is probably that given more regular playing time, he could be a much more productive member of the club.

This certainly goes along with Theo's comments that he is not in a huge rush for a big bat, and that if they decide they need one, it is easier to obtain one in the middle of the season than a starting pitcher. Perhaps he is really high on Adrian Gonzalez and thinks the price for him will drop significantly over the course of the year if the Padres decide they are definitely not contending.

Personally, I think that this is too great of a offensive drop, and though Kotchman plays a great first base, Youk isn't good enough at third to justify moving him over to third without someone really exceptional at first base. I'd rather see us nix the Mike Lowell deal and give him another shot at third with his hip recovering, though I also don't care for that idea.

It is, of course, always possible that this is a bargaining tactic to help lower Beltre's price.

What do you think? Is this a viable option, a dumb decision, or a bargaining tactic?

Season Ticket Holder Night at Petco Park

jbox — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 05:44:48 -0000

Jon and I snuck into the Season Ticket Holder event tonight at Petco. There was a huge line at the entrance, probably 300 people or more, all wearing Padres gear. The reason for the line was that every Padre that lives in San Diego in the off season was out front shaking hands and talking to all the Season Ticket Holders. Bud Black, Heath Bell, Tony Gwynn Jr., Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff, David Eckstein, Everth Cabrera and Kevin Correia.

As we approached the entrance I saw President and COO Tom Garfinkel, so I gave him a wave and in return he gave me a hearty handshake. We wished each other a Happy Holiday season and moved on through the line.

I gave Everth Cabrera a good handshake and told him I was a big fan, he thanked me. Then I saw Brett and Josh from Padres Media Relations and we exchanged pleasantries. Last we spoke of them Dex was calling Josh a "bastard" in jest because he's a Red Sox fan, I'm glad they didn't take it out on me.

Next on the left was Kevin Kouzmanoff. I'll tell you something I'm not the biggest fan of his, but he was super friendly and seemed really sincere when he thanked us for coming out and he was glad to meet us. He's got to be the most popular player on the team right now, he was cheered every time his named was mentioned tonight. People were walking around with "Keep Kouz" signs, he's a phenomenon.

Padres Employees and Players applaud the Season Ticket Holders

As we entered the gates, it was really surreal. There was just about everybody from the Front Office lining the sides of our path applauding us and thanking us for being Season Ticket Holders. I mean these employees were looking us right in the eye and saying it sincerely. I'll tell you something I was really moved. They had been doing it for about an hour and they still seemed just as genuine and thankful as if we were the first people through the gate. I felt kind of ashamed for walking through and not being a Season Ticket Holder, but I was glad that I could see it.

At that point Dex called and I'm like "I'm shaking hands with David Eckstein right now, hold on" and then he tells me that he probably won't be able to get out of work to make it down to Petco. I'm like "Sorry, I missed that last part because I was shaking hands with Adrian Gonzalez." I swear to you he has the softest hands I've ever felt. It was like spanking a new born baby's butt with cotton candy. It was that soft.

As soon as we walked in, there were people from concessions offering us free food and drinks. All the Padres gear was 40% too. We shopped for some Padres caps then grabbed some free pizza, drinks and pulled pork sandwiches.

Moorad wants to bring an All Star Game to San Diego

Once we found our seats Mark Neely came out to emcee the event. He first introduced Chairman and Owner Jeff Moorad. Moorad said a few words and I was kicking myself for not having a camera, a phone or anything to take notes with. Seriously I'm the worst blogger. He did say that his second biggest goal was to bring an All Star Game to San Diego, following only a World Series title in importance.

Moorad also mentioned that he understands how connected fans get to their favorite player, his favorite is Everth Cabrera. I wonder if that gets awkward at all. I imagine it something like Michael Scott's crush on the temp, Ryan, in The Office.

Throwback Thursday, Batting Practice Viewing and Lower Beer Prices

Next up was Tom Garfinkel, who told a joke about Hoyer wearing a jacket that made him look like Ron Burgundy. Nobody laughed. Garfinkel made some announcements: Every Thursday Game is now "Throwback Thursday" the Padres will be wearing Brown and Yellow and the Park will only be playing organ music! "No YMCA!" I was so excited I was clapping my little heart out. I remember when I had that idea back in 2006.

Garfinkel then announced that Dick Enberg would be the new TV voice of the Padres and that Enberg couldn't be at the Park tonight because he was being inducted into the Broadcaster's Hall of Fame. A video message of Enberg showed on the screen and he thanked the Padres fans and told them that he took this job because his first love was always baseball and he's always followed the Padres. He also gave us a preview of his home run call "Touch 'em all!" Jon wasn't impressed with the call.

Garfinkel also announced that Season Ticket Holders would be able to enter the park a half hour early to watch batting practice. That's what they call "added value" in the bizness.

Then to finish off on a strong note he announced to much applause that they would lower beer prices by a considerable amount, along with hot dogs, drinks other concessions.

Next up was Jed Hoyer. He came out and went through his standard schtick about how the weather is different between Boston and San Diego and that he can't believe he was standing outside without a jacket on. The crowd ate it up. We love hearing about how great San Diego is.

Bud Black came out next and said a few words. Neely introduced him as being a very even keeled manager, Mr. Steady. Black said a few words but I nodded off to the sound of his voice so I missed them.

Question and Answers

The first question was about people who didn't have Cox and couldn't view the Padres game. Garfinkel and Moorad said this issue was one of their biggest priorities and admitted that they are still under contract with Cox for another two years. They were negotiating to see if they can work something out for 2010. Moorad thinks it's ironic and sorta funny that John Moores can't watch Padres game from his home in Rancho Santa Fe.

There was another suggestion that there be a day where Season Ticket Holders can all donate their tickets to the Military so that they can have nice seats for a game. Ticket Holders said with applause that they'd like to do this. Garfinkel said he'd make it happen.

Another guy complained that there should be a net over the centerfield fence protecting the babies and children digging in the sand box beyond the fence. The Padres don't think it is necessary at this time because nobody has been hurt yet. Instead they will only get players that cannot hit home runs.

Moorad mentions Gaslamp Ball

Another lady asked a real general question about if they thought there should be a salary cap in baseball. Moorad
decides to field that question and starts off by asking if there is any media in attendance. He looks around and says "This is off the record to the media... and to Gaslamp Ball" At the mention of us, Jon starts cheering and clapping, he's the only one. I honestly didn't even hear his answer to the question because we were laughing and tickling each other at the very mention of the site. Can somebody tell us if he was in favor of the cap or not? I think he was not in favor, who knows.

Somebody else got up and said that it's nice to have Jed Hoyer because he's easy on the eyes and that his wife had a crush on him. He questioned Hoyer about what he was going to do to keep Gonzalez in San Diego? His question got the most cheers of the night. Hoyer blushed at being the focus of the crush and talked about what a great player Adrian is.

That's all I really remember but I didn't have a pen to take notes. The Padres then raffled off the players jerseys and let the fans walk out on the field. Jon and I frolicked on the grass.

I talked to Warren from Media Relations and was introduced to Padres VP Dan Migala who was friends with Dex back when he was in North Carolina. He claims that he and Hoyer invited us to get beers but that Dex never replied to his email. He was also proud to be the target of some ribbing on Gaslamp Ball.

On the way out we grabbed a ton of leftover souvenirs from the season that will probably fill my trunk for the rest of the year. Really fun night.

Down on the Farm: John Sickel's Top 20 Red Sox Prospects for 2010

raygu — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 20:00:18 -0000

John Sickels posted his Top 20 Red Sox prospects for 2010 last night, so be sure to head on over to Minor League Ball and see what he has to say about your favorite Red Sox prospect.

Here is Sickels on outfield prospect Ryan Westmoreland:

1) Ryan Westmoreland, OF, Grade B+: I love this guy: Five Tool/Seven Skill player who can do everything. I expect more power will come. Just needs to stay healthy.

I have to think Padres GM Ned Hoyer would want him in any deal for Adrian Gonzalez.

MLB Trade Rumors: Red Sox Sign John Lackey and Mike Cameron; Is Deal for Adrian Gonzalez Next?

raygu — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

2 months ago: San Diego Padres' Adrian Gonzalez follows the flight of his single to drive in two runs against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning of the Rockies' 11-10 victory in a baseball game in Denver on Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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The Boston Red Sox also made news on Monday signing starting pitcher John Lackey to a reported 5 year $85 million deal, and signing Mike Cameron to a 2 year $15 million deal. It appears that Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is placing more and more value into defensive metrics illustrated by his signing of Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron. Epstein appears to have washed his hands of Jason Bay and his big bat/no glove in left field.

Epstein is also close to dealing third baseman Mike Lowell to the Rangers for catcher Max Ramirez. Lowell has been injury prone over the last two years, and Epstein is looking to sign Adrian Beltre to play 3B, or is he?

Now that the Sox have signed John Lackey, they have an extra starting pitcher that new Padres GM Ned Hoyer covets in Clay Bucholz. Could the Sox be entertaining the idea of del Bucholz now that they have signed Lackey? A package of Bucholz, Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland and 1-2 more prospects would surely entice Hoyer who knows the Sox system inside and out. And Gonzalez's bat and glove would be an ideal fit for Epstein's new approach to building a ballclub.

Poll

Will Padres GM Ned Hoyer finally cave and deal Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox?

John Lackey's Signing: The Potential Ripple Effect

ltrain2 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:38:24 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Is Adrian Gonzalez, pictured here, the next big name acquisition to be announced by the Boston Red Sox following the recent signing of free agent pitcher John Lackey?

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In what can surely be considered an understatement; the Red Sox's recent off-season activity has the Major League Baseball community buzzing, namely the population that makes up 'Red Sox Nation.'

On Monday, following reports that discussions surrounding re-signing Jason Bay had soured, the Red Sox proceeded to sign the top available starting pitcher via free agency, John Lackey, to a 5-year deal. The arrival of the former Angels' ace in Boston has been dissected in a bevy of ways since news broke earlier today by nearly every media outlet, each offering their own unique opinion on the situation. Some suggest that Lackey represents a reallocation of the funds originally intended for Bay. However, I don't believe that there is enough emphasis being placed on the big picture as a result of the acquisition, and the subsequent sequence of events that may potentially follow.

While some may argue that because Jason Bay is no longer an option, the Red Sox may have simply taken their money and invested in another big ticket free agent instead. If that were the case, wouldn't it have been more intelligent to focus on someone like Matt Holliday or Adrian Beltre to help fill the holes that Boston has both defensively and offensively, rather than acquire a starting pitcher? While there's no denying that the depth in regards to the starting rotation was a point of emphasis for management heading into the off-season, it seems rather narrow-minded to use such a large sum of financial resources to fill that void while continuing to ignore the ones at third base and left field.

Is it possible that Mike Cameron is set to be Jason Bay's replacement, especially given the defensive upgrade he represents, and that they simply used the money that they saved by not going after Matt Holliday on the combination of Cameron and Lackey? Sure, it's not a farfetched theory by any means. However, after much deliberation on the topic, I have come to the conclusion that there may be more to the Red Sox's recent acquisitions than what is evident on the surface.

One piece of information that slipped through the cracks today, which is understandable given the more notable moves made, is that the Red Sox made a two year contract offer reportedly worth $15 million dollars to left-handed Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. Chapman, a 21 year-old starting pitcher with a fastball that consistently touches triple-digits, could offer a bit of foreshadowing into the Red Sox's plan of action in relation to their void at third base.

The $80-85 million dollar contract awarded to Lackey is what originally made me look into the potential reasoning behind extending $15 million to Chapman who, like Lackey, is a starting pitcher. No, Chapman would not likely be added to the MLB-level rotation come opening day, but there are still some flags being raised by Boston's pursuit of the young talent. Why continue attempting to accrue starting pitching depth with a hole still evident at not only the third base position, but in the lineup as well?

Consider this; the addition of Lackey now gives Boston six viable options for their rotation, as it stands now, heading into 2010. With Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Wakefield, a once seemingly questionable rotation has become more than formidable, arguably the best in baseball. Where does extending a $15 million dollar contract to a young, unproven, prospect-type pitcher make sense given the Red Sox's glaring needs elsewhere?

It would not only make sense, but it would actually appear rather brilliant in its creativeness, if the plan of action was to turn around and begin shopping the attractive young talent that is Clay Buchholz. Buchholz, known for his devastating arsenal of off-speed pitches as well as his limitless potential, seemingly finds himself immersed in nearly every trade discussion involving the Red Sox the last few years. So why stop now?

One reason that Theo Epstein has been reluctant to move Buchholz to this point is that it is difficult to find a young starting pitcher with that much potential without having to develop internally, as they did with Clay. This is where Aroldis Chapman becomes relevant to this discussion.

Matt Holliday had been the center of rumors regarding the Red Sox's planned route in the event that Bay could not be retained. However, recent reports (especially coming from Holliday's agent, Scott Boras) suggest that signing Holliday would require a deal exceeding that in which Jason Bay is commanding at the present time. Boras has been rather vocal in his opinion that Holliday is a more valuable asset than Bay to an interested team. Having said that, and assuming that Adrian Beltre is now out of this off-season's budget limit, it's hard to imagine that the Red Sox are left with many options to plug third base via free agency. It's also safe to assume that management is left unsatisfied with Cameron replacing Bay if it means that someone like Casey Kotchman is going to take over the first base duties, with Youkilis moving to third base in this scenario (also making the assumption that moving Varitek back behind the plate full-time, while shifting Youkilis to third and Victor Martinez to first, is not a realistic option).

All of this leads me to believe that the Red Sox next plan of action is to begin gauging interest from teams regarding the aforementioned Clay Buchholz.

With the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman, moving Clay Buchholz could become more justifiable to the Red Sox. Essentially, the Chapman signing may simply be a case of replacing one young pitching prospect with another, allowing Boston to utilize Buchholz's trade-appeal and acquire the corner infield-bat that they so desperately need.

San Diego could potentially be a player in any discussion pertaining to Buchholz. The Red Sox have discussed the availability of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez with the Padres recently, but to no avail, citing Boston's hesitation to move Buchholz as a main reason. Reports, prior to the Lackey signing, made it appear as though no progress was being made on that front. Padres general manager Jed Hoyer reportedly requested a combination of Buchholz and either Casey Kelly (a pitching prospect widely considered untouchable in such discussions) or outfielder Ryan Westmoreland.

One interesting aspect of negotiations is that Jason McLeod, a former Red Sox scouting director, is now employed by Hoyer. It has been said that both have a detailed understanding and admiration of the Boston system.

While the Red Sox still expected to retain Jason Bay, it was understandable for Epstein to be adverse to the idea of unloading Buchholz, especially given his opinion that the rotation (even with Buchholz) lacked depth. Also, because Bay was still an option at that point, the need for an offensive upgrade was slightly less glaring. With Bay and Holliday now out of the mix, and the potential signings of both Lackey and Chapman, the attention has to be redirected back to the original need for offense at one of the corner infield spots left vacant by Mike Lowell's departure (still pending). A platoon of Mike Cameron and Jeremy Hermida is probably not the caliber of replacement in left field that Boston entered the off-season with in mind, but acquiring someone such as Adrian Gonzalez would have to help alleviate any concerns regarding offensive potency that may still linger.

As I implied earlier, San Diego is very interested in Clay Buchholz, even going as far as insisting his presence in any potential package offered by Boston. If Chapman is signed, Buchholz immediately becomes more expendable, and Gonzalez that much more appealing. Boston's interest in Chapman has been evident for some time, is it possible now that his addition could represent the subtraction of Buchholz? Clay's availability has to increase exponentially in the event that the Red Sox land Chapman.

It is starting to appear as though Theo Epstein has been underestimated in his approach this off-season all along. His lack of activity seems to have directly corresponded with the progress made in re-signing Bay. As soon as the discussions began to break down, Theo started making moves. My feeling is that he has had this plan in his back pocket the whole time he was in talks with Bay and his representatives, and is only now beginning to deploy it.

One fact remains certain, Boston's needs a power-hitter to compliment their lineup following the departure of Jason Bay. With Cameron and Hermida joining J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury, completing a respectable core of outfielders, the most obvious place to fill that void remains at one of the corner infield spots.

It's hard to imagine a better solution than someone like Adrian Gonzalez.

No More Complaining About Payrolls for Red Sox Fans

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 00:28:27 -0000

More photos » by M. Spencer Green - AP

about 1 month ago: Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein talks to reporters during Major League Baseball's 2009 General Managers Meetings, Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2009 in Chicago. (AP Photo/M. Spencer Green)

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It was always a comfortable, if perhaps not entirely respectable fallback to point at the Yankees' payroll. It was not the most valid of excuses--fans of small market teams would be and were entirely justified at laughing their heads off at the $120 million giant crying about cash. But the Yankees' $200 million was a clear outlier, heads and tails above the #2 team in the league.

Red Sox fans will have to give up that excuse in 2010, though. Sure, barring more signings, the Yankees will still be ahead of the Red Sox by a fair amount. But as it stands now, with the Yankees aiming at a reported $185 million figure and the Red Sox standing around $150 million--give or take a few million based on arbitration guesses--the Yankees are not in a league of their own anymore. While last year only the smallest market teams in the league could claim that the Sox had as much an advantage over them as the Yankees did over the Sox, this year it will likely be well over half the teams in the league.

The $150 million will not all be on the field for the Sox. $9 million comes from Julio Lugo, who was traded to the Cardinals last year on the condition that the Sox pay for him. Mike Lowell, though he's still with the team for now, could also well be in Texas within the week, still costing the Sox $9 million himself. Add in $1.5 million in buyouts, and that's nearly $20 million in bad contract money.

But what impact does this have on the average reader? Well, to start with, it's gonna be tough to expect any more signings this year. Matt Holliday is almost certainly out. Jason Bay will join him. Instead, if the organization is willing to go all out this year, expect at most mid-money, 1-year contracts. Say, Mike Cameron. Given the hole at 3B, and $3 million potentially coming off the books from a Lowell trade, even Adrian Beltre is not impossible. But if anyone was expecting a big push in the outfield department, think again.

Popular thinking has the Red Sox shipping Clay Buchholz and others off to the Padres in a deal for Adrian Gonzalez, and while Adrian Gonzalez has a very team-friendly contract at the moment, that's bound to change within the next few years. I doubt the Sox would be willing to invest not only Clay Buchholz, but also Casey Kelly or Ryan Westmoreland in any deal for Adrian Gonzalez that does not also include an extension. Any extension would cost a great deal of money, even considering discounts given a guaranteed raise over the years remaining on his current contract. Even with a Lowell trade, Gonzalez would likely put the Sox at around $160 million even without a left fielder. The rumor of Mike Cameron would put that number closer to an incredible $170 million.

Also at issue is next year's payroll. Assuming a $170 million dollar payroll this year, the Red Sox will have a number of unpopular contracts coming off their books. But just how much spending money will that result in? First, both "bad contracts" come off the board for $20 million. Then there's David Ortiz' $13 million, Josh Beckett's $12 million, Jason Varitek's $3 million, and Victor Martinez' $7.7 million. After losing all that, the Sox will barely be under the $120 million they spent in 2009. And that's not even factoring in raises! Youkilis gets $3 million more. Daisuke is up $2 million, Lester adds $2 million, and Pedroia $2 million. Let's mercifully assume that the Red Sox' 7 players going to their next year in Arbitration adds only $10-15 million, and we're still left with Ellsbury and Buchholz starting their first arbitration years, and due for probably $8 million between them at least. A conservative estimate puts the Red Sox well over $140 million starting 2010's offseason, and that's without a catcher, DH, and one top-of-the-rotation pitcher. Forget about Joe Mauer, this team might not be willing to sign A.J. Pierzynski.

There are 2 directions the Sox front office could go with. Either this is an all-out gamble for the next few years, with money on the Sox' prospects coming through to fill in holes (Either Exposito, Wagner, or possibly Max Ramirez at catcher, maybe Lars at DH), or the Red Sox' ownership is committing to setting a new bar for payroll. If this isn't just a flash in the pan of spending, then it's official: we're rivaling the Yankees, and it's time to swallow our jeers and, quite frankly, show some shame. I, for one, have been calling for a salary cap and floor for years, and I will not stop doing so now just because we're now spending as much as our greatest enemies. But I will probably talk quieter, and I'll expect even more derision for it.

Either way, though, at least those $5 ticket hikes are going to the right places.

Innumerable thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for so many numbers in this piece. Fantastic site for anything contract related.

Choose Your Own Adventure: Red Sox Edition

ltrain2 — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 10:22:05 -0000

You are Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein.

You have recently completed a trade, pending approval from commissioner Bud Selig, that sends veteran third baseman Mike Lowell to the Texas Rangers in return for catching prospect Max Ramirez. You now find yourself with yet another void to fill, this time at the "hot corner." Your arch-rivals, the New York Yankees, have just acquired the multi-talented center fielder Curtis Granderson and are linked in discussions for one of the most talented pitchers in all of baseball, Roy Halladay. Fans are growing impatient with every deal made at the winter meetings that doesn't involve you, and opportunities to patch your teams weaknesses are growing slim. What do you do?

Sign Adrian Beltre as Mike Lowell's successor (go to bullet point A)
Package some of your prospects and pry Adrian Gonzalez away from San Diego (go to bullet point B)
Package a few prospects and steal Miguel Cabrera away from Detroit (go to bullet point C)
Sit idly by and hope that everything works out on its own (go to bullet point D)

A. Ah, you have chosen to sign former Seattle Mariner Adrian Beltre. You have replaced one former Gold Glove Award recipient with another at the third base position. Last season, despite being sidelined for approximately six weeks, your new addition put up respectable numbers. The 30 year old still has some seasons left in him, and assuming you signed him to a Scutaro-type contract, you're only going to need him for a brief bridging period. You likely paid a rather high price for the free agent that has been linked to several other suitors, but you got your corner infield spots addressed. Aside from Beltre's suspicious 2004 season (not even going to go there), your new 3B seems like a safe bet to produce Lowell-like offensive numbers and provide a slight upgrade on the defensive side of the ball from the often-injured Lowell. You decided to steer clear of that blockbuster move, but you've made a wise and safe choice nonetheless, Theo.

B. Congratulations! You have just acquired one of the most prominent left-handed bats in all of baseball, Adrian Gonzalez. Your new 27 year old first baseman forces you to move Kevin Youkilis over to third base, but you now have Gold Glovers literally littering your infield. Fielding prowess aside, Gonzalez gives you a powerful left-handed bat that you can build your lineup around for years to come. Coming off of a career year at the plate, your new trade acquisition fills your need for both a corner infielder as well as a power hitter. The guy's defense makes your pitching staff better and his bat positively influences all of those around him in the lineup. You didn't just upgrade your first base position, you made your whole team better. Bold, smart, and you've made a strong statement to your fans and team that 2010 isn't going to be a conservative effort.

C. Great move. You have taken advantage of a few recent occurrences and snagged Miguel Cabrera away from the Detroit Tigers. After the Tigers dumped both Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson, you knew Cabrera was available. Everyone has their price, and after Detroit acquired a slew of highly touted prospects in the deal with New York and Arizona, Cabrera's asking price went down a bit as Detroit became relatively content with their farm system. Sure, you had to take Dontrelle Willis off their hands as part of the deal, but you find joy in taking players and attempting to re-mold them, especially pitchers. In Miguel, you received a player who reminds most of Manny Ramirez in his prime, both on and off the field. However, you decided to take the good with the bad, and ride this guy in the middle of your order for many years. Nobody doubts Cabrera's talent or work ethic, they're both Hall-of-Fame caliber, if you can only avoid any off the field transgressions. Succeed in that, and you have made potentially the biggest splash of the off-season. You're team is again feared, and your fans are more than content. Your job is done here.

D. You have decided to do nothing. 2010 is going to be a bumpy ride, one that will be filled with many unhappy, I told you so fans. You had better hope that 2011 free agent class that you've been day-dreaming about treats you better than the one that preceded it.

Poll

Which adventure did you choose?

Winter Meetings as Classic Rock

Rev Halofan — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 09:59:31 -0000

The Winter meetings see every team show up and do nothing while sportswriters blow hot air and call it smoke signals. Here is my analysis of how each major league team fared at the Winter meetings by comparing them to one of the TOP 100 Classic Rock Songs of all time.

AL WEST

Angels - Led Zeppelin's Kashmir. They already got their ace pitcher in August and can talk of days for which they sit and wait where all will be revealed.

Athletics - the Who: Who Are You - I heard a rumor in 2002 that the way these guys ran their team was going to let them compete with the big boys. Tell me who are you... Who who? Who who?

Rangers - AC/DC's Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap - They get Rich Harden on an incentive deal, Mike Lowell with his salary paid and unload Kevin Millwood. And they are being sold for a lot less than their owner owes the bank.

Mariners - The Beatles: Come Together - It is obvious they have a plan, they got $50 Million to spend, they got Figgy Sideboard, they got hair, down, to their knees, hold you in their Safeco you can feel Ichiro sneeze.

AL CENTRAL

Twins - Rolling Stones' Brown Sugar - How come Gardenhire manages so good? They were quiet at the meetings in obvious preparation for making Joe Mauer rich, at which point you know they will be singing "I said yeah, yeah yeah WHOO!"

Tigers - Led Zeppelin's When the Levee Breaks - Dumped Curtis Granderson in order to rebuild. Got flooded in prospects.

White Sox - Jethro Tull's Aqualung - You might need a similar breathing apparatus to talk as fast and furious as Ozzie Guillen.

Indians - Don McClean's American Pie - nostalgia for the 90s? News of them trading Kelly Shoppach for a PTBNL makes one a bit wistful for the days when this team was a powerhouse...

Royals - Bruce Springsteen's Born to Run - Any song with the line "tramps like us" has to be referring to these underachievers, who showed up in snowy Indianapolis to sign a Cuban defector.

AL EAST

Yankees - Pink Floyd's Money - When you can pay Andy Pettitte $12 Million for one year, you certainly are in the race.

Red Sox - Van Halen's Runnin' With the Devil - No other team in sports defines itself by its main competitor more. The lack of action on the Free Agent front among all teams is the matching up the wallets between John Henry and George.

Rays - Boston's More Than a Feeling - Joe Maddon's club gets quite a bit of respect and when they are tied to a rumored signing everyone pays attention.

Blue Jays - Rolling Stones' You Can't Always Get What You Want - Roy Halladay will bring you some good players, and if you try some time, you just might find... you get what you need.

Orioles - Rolling Stones' Sympathy for the Devil - Peter Angelos used to be the agreed upon worst owner in the sport, but you gotta feel sorry for him with the McCourts, that soccer coach in Arlington and some of these other schmoes...

NL WEST

Giants - Led Zeppelin's Ramble On - Mentioned in every free agent signing possibility and trades galore but it was years ago in days of old when their magic (in a pill) ruled the world, so I guess they'll just keep ramblin' on....

Rockies - KISS' Rock N Roll All Night - If you had their wealth of pitching, you'd be partying at the winter meetings just daring clubs to make you an offer while two strippers in the hot tub were calling you over...

Dodgers - Derek and the Dominos' Layla - They did not even offer arbitration to some good players as the owner's divorce has Frank McCourt on his knees, beggin' darlin' please...

Padres - Rolling Stones' Paint it Black - Bud Black is obviously held in high regard and ... as for the Adrian Gonzalez rumors? I could not foresee this thing happening to you...

Diamondbacks - Van Halen's Jump. A big trade? Headlines? Dumping big prospects for AL maybe arms? Might as well jump. JUMP!

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals - The Doors' Light My Fire - You know that it would be untrue, you know that they would be a liar, if Ken Rosenthal were to tweet "Pujols trade rumors gettin' higher"

Cubs - Guns N Roses: Welcome to the Jungle - Signed Milton Bradley last year and now finding it hard to trade him. If you got the money honey, he will still be your disease... in the jungle...

Brewers - Led Zeppelin's Whole Lotta Love - 3 years for Randy Wolf is "Love" not "Likes a lot"

Astros - Elton John's Funeral for a Friend - I guess we can be happy for them that they still get an invitation to the Winter Meetings...

Reds - Def Leppard's Pour Some Sugar on Me - Dusty Baker can make the worst headache of a managing job sound sweet.

Pirates - Black Sabbath's Paranoid. People think they're insane because they are frowning all the time.

NL EAST

Phillies - Pink Floyd's Shine On You Crazy Diamond - Never a better time to be a Philly or a Phillies fan.

Braves - Cream's Crossroads - They sign Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito and then Rafael Soriano accepts arbitration. Should they just go with possibly the best bullpen in history or trade Soriano, the best of the three relievers?

Marlins - Jimi Hendrix: All Along the Watchtower - They always have a good player or two that you gotta keep your eye on at these meetings.

Mets - The Who: Won't Get Fooled Again. But you know they will. It will be hard to top last offseason's swindle by Bernie Madoff, though.

Nationals - Foghat's Slow Ride. They signed Pudge!!! Saving up for Nationals playoff tickets??? Take it easy.

Around the Mission: Everybody wants Kevin Kouzmanoff Edition

Dex — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:41:30 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

No joke. The Yankees just offered me a player to be named later in exchange for this photo of Kevin "Everybody Wants" Kouzmanoff.(AP Photo/Ben Margot)

Browse more photos »

In links today, everybody is interested in Kevin Kouzmanoff. I mean bad. They want him so bad. And by "everybody", I mean kdukat and what's left of the Gaslamp Ball Girls. Hahahahaha...

No, I'm just kidding. Everybody wants Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Winter Meetings Rumor Update
Would a Geovany Soto-Heath Bell deal make sense for both sides? We check in with CBSSports.com’s Scott Miller from Indianapolis for the latest rumors on the Padres, Bell, Adrian Gonzalez, Milton Bradley, the Angels, Roy Halladay, Vlad, and more
Several clubs interested in Kouzmanoff | padres.com: News
Kevin Kouzmanoff, one of four prominent Padres who are eligible for arbitration and due a substantial raise, has apparently drawn the interest of several teams at the Winter Meetings.
Padres 3rd baseman Kouzmanoff creating a buzz - Sports - SignOnSanDiego.com
"We’re in fine shape financially at this point," he said. "Any moves will be made to try to make the team better."
The Schmuck Stops Here: Orioles: The third man - Some say it’s better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt. I disagree. - baltimoresun.com
the Orioles also have expressed interest in San Diego Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff
Correia’s days may be numbered - Sports - SignOnSanDiego.com
“They made an offer to me, but it was obviously below the arbitration value,” said Correia. “I could still end up playing here. And this is where I want to play. The door is not closed.”
PADRES: Club talks Correia, Kouzmanoff at winter meetings
"Nothing's final, but we're in the process of talking about a deal," Axelrod said by phone. "The proposal was not jumped at, but we'll talk again. ... Kevin's choice is to stay in San Diego for a variety of reasons. The only reason (he'd leave) would be if he was not compensated appropriately."