SB Nation - Shannon Stewart

Saying Goodbye to the Metrodome: Top 5 Memories

Jesse — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 01:00:23 -0000

What are yours?

Barring a minor miracle, tomorrow night the Minnesota Twins will open their final series in the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. 28 baseball seasons ago, on April 6 1982, the first baseball game was held as the Twins played host to the Seattle Mariners. In just a few hours the Kansas City Royals will be baseball's last visitors under teflon skies.

There are a lot of easy memories when you think back. Of course there's the unbelieveable run by the 1987 Twins, when they returned to Minneapolis down three games to two but still took down the St. Louis Cardinals in seven games; Kirby Puckett, Kent Hrbek, Gary Gaetti, Tom Brunansky and Frank Viola became household names over night while a 36-year old Bert Blyleven threw a now unthinkable 267 innings. Even more of you might choose the 1991 incarnation of the Twins, starring some of the same characters while also including franchise names like Rick Aguilera, Chili Davis, Brian Harper, Kevin Tapani, Shane Mack, Scott Erickson and Jack Morris; Puckett's homer in game six and ten innings of shutout baseball by Morris in game seven. Or maybe you were there for the alpha, for a 102-loss team with 22-year olds Herbie and Viola? How about the completion of one of the greatest comebacks in the history of the organization, when the team won the AL Central title after the final out of their season was recorded in 2006?

I'm too young for some of these, at least to remember them properly. My top five metrodome memories will all be from games where I was actually there; when I was actually sitting in those horribly placed seats, under a dirty yellow sky. Check out my top five after the jump, and then feel free to share your own.

Five

This one isn't even baseball. In high school I was lucky enough to be part of a team that made the state playoffs for football. Two consecutive seasons I got to play at least one game on the turf of the Dome, the same turf as Puck and Hrbek and Radke, the same turf as Anthony Carter and John Randle and Randall McDaniel, as a member of the Breckenridge Cowboys in November of '95 and '96.

Four

On June 22, 1992, my family made a trip to the Cities for a vacation away from Greater Minnesota, and I saw my first Twins game. The Angels were in town. We arrived early enough to watch the guys warm up in the outfield, and I can still remember how in awe of them I was. They were just a few feet from me, in the flesh--real, live people, not on television. Kent Hrbek wasn't in the lineup that day, but I still got to see Knobby and Kirby. Knoblauch singled in the first, stole second base and eventually would score on a Chili Davis single. In the seventh Brian Harper walked, Pedro Munoz doubled moving him to third, and two batters later Harper scored on a Greg Gagne sac fly to make it 2-0. That was the final score, the Twins winning my first ever game on the back of those two runs and 8.1 innings of scoreless ball thrown by John Smiley. Aggy got the save, of course.

Three

I went to a Twins - Blue Jays tilt with my friend Mike on June 22, 2007. There were four drunk Jays fans in front of us, and honestly I don't even remember what the score was, although I do know the Twins won. Why? Because all I can remember is this:

Why did I take this picture, you ask? Why wouldn't I take this picture. Nasty.

Two

I got goosebumps when I saw Johan Santana pick up his 1000th strikeout on June 13, 2006, as I went to a game to see myself in Dugout Splinters for the very first time and to catch a game with some friends a couple days before my birthday. But while Johan more than did his job, striking out 13 over eight innings while allowing just five hits, he couldn't hold the Boston Red Sox scoreless. Jason Varitek's line drive home run to center field put Boston up 1-0, and the Twins would only manage to tie the game on a Michael Cuddyer homer in the bottom half of the inning. Santana left the game tied, and it wasn't solved until Jason Kubel decided to make Julian Tavarez pay for intentionally walking Torii Hunter to get to him. With the bases loaded and the count full, Kubel took Tavarez deep for a walk-off grand slam home run. It. Was. Amazing.

One

On April 5, 2004, Opening Day, I watched as the Twins slowly sunk to a four-run deficit through six innings at the hands of the Cleveland Indians. Brad Radke struggled early, giving up a second inning homer to Travis Hafner and a third inning homer to Jody Gerut, before settling down for the next couple innings. He gave up another solo shot to Hafner in the top of the sixth, and there wasn't any life in the Twins' offense, which had managed just one hit (a single by Shannon Stewart to lead off the bottom of the first) off CC Sabathia over seven innings. But then came the bottom of the eighth.

Joe Mauer walked to lead things off, and Christian Guzman followed that up with a single before the top of the order cylced around and Stewart moved both runners up on a ground out. Cuddyer followed with a hard liner to center, scoring both runs, and was moved to third base on a Doug Mientkiewicz single. Corey Koskie was sitting dead red on a 2-2 pitch and drove it into the left-center gap for a ground-rule double, scoring Cuddyer to maker it 4-3, before Hunter singled to tie the game and finish the scoring for the inning. Jacque Jones and Matt LeCroy struck out to end the rally.

Then all went silent once more.

via www.minorleagueballparks.com

J.C. Romero, Joe Nathan and Juan Rincon combined for three scoreless innings. Aaron Fultz and Joe Roa had already combined for two of their own, but those three bridge us to the bottom of the 11th. Jones struck out again, for the fourth time in four at-bats. LeCroy managed to squeeze out a walk, and was replaced on the bases by Nick Punto. Mauer pulled a hard shot into right field, allowing Punto to take third on the one out single. Guzman struck out for the second out of the inning. Alertly, Mauer took second base on defensive indifference with Stewart now at the dish, giving the Indians the option of intentionally walking Stewart to face Cuddyer. Chad Durbin and the Indians decided to go after him, and Shannon repaid them by smashing a line drive home run into the left field seats, about four rows in front of where I was sitting. The crowd went absolutely berserk, and I'm pretty sure Mike and I were already nomiating Stewart for MVP on the back of his strong showing with the Twins in 2003.

This, of course, was also Joe Mauer's very first game with the Minnesota Twins. I studied him closely before the game started, warming up with Brad Radke in the bullpen. There appeared nothing unusual, he wasn't wearing bling and he wasn't acting up and he didn't strut. He just squatted down, held out his glove and let Brad warm up. From moment one Joe was all business, even when his name was announced (hitting eighth, by the way) and the crowd rained down applause like they already knew he was Baby Joe Jesus. That in itself almost qualifies as another memory, seperate from the game, that I will always remember.

What about you?

Does Carl Pavano Make the Twins Rotation Better?

Jesse — Sat, 08 Aug 2009 12:00:24 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

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Actually, yes. Yes, he does.

When the Twins claimed Carl Pavano off waivers this week, it set in motion events that would lead to Minnesota's biggest mid-season trade since Shannon Stewart in July of 2003. Under most circumstances an inter-division trade would seem odd, but considering Cleveland's failure of a season and their sellers aspect, they really have nothing to lose by dealing Pavano to a division rival.

There's really no question that the Twins needed some help in the starting rotation. Injuries and slow starts have been the two biggest factors affecting how effectve that rotation has been, so the addition of the 33-year old Pavano (at presumably the closest thing you can get to zero cost while still giving something up) is a step in the right direction.

Of course there are a few stock reactions of the negative variety on a move like this...

Pavano isn't a front-line starter
He hasn't been healthy for a full season since 2004 (just 45.2 MLB innings from 2006 - 2008)
That 5.37 ERA is just bad

All of those things are true, but none of them give an accurate clue as to whether he upgrades an ailing rotation. Let's see how he stacks up against our boys so far this year.

Name	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	WHIP	Zone %	First Strike %	HR:FB	FIP
Carl Pavano	21	125.2	6.30	1.65	1.38	50.6	66.5	12.8	4.26
Scott Baker	21	127.1	7.49	1.91	1.17	53.4	61.0	11.6	4.11
Nick Blackburn	22	145	3.72	1.99	1.37	52.2	60.0	7.2	4.18
Francisco Liriano	21	118.1	8.06	4.18	1.54	45.0	54.5	12.7	4.78
Glen Perkins	17	95.1	4.25	2.08	1.48	51.9	64.6	9.8	4.63
Kevin Slowey	16	90.2	7.44	1.49	1.41	56.5	68.5	10.7	4.23
Anthony Swarzak	9	48.2	4.99	3.14	1.42	52.4	56.9	5.8	4.20

With Slowey out for the season, his leading numbers in BB/9, strike zone percentage and first strike percentage no longer qualify as "best in the rotation". Perkins, who's been moved to the bullpen anyway with the arrival of Pavano, wasn't the leader in any category.

Understanding the season that Blackburn has put together so far and knowing the direction that Baker's season has been heading, it's not unfair to say that Pavano has just become Minnesota's third best starter, if not their second. And considering that Bill Smith and the front office managed to pick him up for next to nothing, respect must be paid. The front office made a play and took a chance on the waiver wire, and it just might help.

2003 was a long time ago, but that charmed Marlins club was a good one. Pavano was a big part of their post-season success, appearing in eight different games while starting twice; he logged 19.1 innings and compiled a 1.40 ERA. That's the only time he's been to the playoffs, not having pitched for the Yankees in October during his tenure in New York. But if the Twins do somehow manage to pull off a fantastic final eight weeks, I'd have no problem with this guy being part of our post-season rotation.

August is a fun time, because sneakly little deals like this can still happen. The players and teams involved aren't always a surprise, but how they're matched can be if only because news doesn't flow as freely as it does in July.

We'll get to that waiver deadline primer tomorrow night.

I'm Not the Way I Thought I Was: Solving the Blue Jays' DH-Sized Dilemma

hugo — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 17:25:56 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Travis Snider's ineffectiveness and subsequent injury has left the Jays in the lurch for a competent designated hitter. How to solve this vexing problem? (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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So, as you B^3-ers likely remember, the Jays had a bit of trouble at the DH spot last season. Jays' DHs batted .247/.325/.418, well below league-average DH production. It was especially problematic for a team like the 2008 Jays, who were built around pitching and defense, to have such tepid production out of the offense-only DH spot. Even worse was the production out of left field (.258/.325/.384), the second-least important defensive position.

Going into this season, Jays faithful were told that this was the year of Adam Lind and Travis Snider. Most of the "credit" for the poor DH/LF performance was due to Frank Thomas, Shannon Stewart, Matt Stairs, Brad Wilkerson, and Kevin Mench -- I won't even show their numbers, because they are awful, but just trust me -- and those 5 gentlemen were all gone. Here on B^3, we thought Lind was ready for prime-time, but we debated the merits of acquiring a LF/DH bat, especially with the market cold on guys like Pat Burrell, and starting Snider in the minors rather than just throwing him into the fire. I can't remember what we concluded, so let's assume that we all unanimously agreed that Snider wasn't quite ready to make the necessary adjustments once the league got a taste of him and that he should start in the minors.

Fast forward to the end of June, we're almost but not quite halfway through the season, and the Jays are doing well, sitting 5 games over .500 and just 1 game behind the New York Yankees for the AL Wild Card lead. And, yet, a familiar problem...

Snider started hot but cooled off quickly and drastically. He was sent to the minors where he hurt himself and won't even be swinging a bat again until July. I think it's safe to assume he'll be a September callup, if anything. Adam Lind started the season as the regular DH and was fantastic but took over leftfield duties when Snider was sent down. Lind, unlike Snider, plays against lefties and righties (a healthy .847 OPS against lefties), so he doesn't need a platoon partner. But so who should play DH?

The Contenders:

Kevin Millar: Copacetic Up? Millar started the season as Lyle Overbay's platoon partner but Overbay has been hitting so well lately (though his numbers against lefties are pretty poor still) and offers so much more defensively that you can make the argument that Lyle should be playing every day. Millar has never shown much platoon-i-ness, and offers all that gooey clubhouse stuff, so he'd seem like a logical choice to take the everyday DH spot, right? Not so fast! You might not have noticed if you don't have a Millar effigy you punch in the face every morning like our very own Tom Dakers, but old Kev's hitting hasn't exactly been up to par lately. He's presently batting a putrid .246/.318/.388, which is actually worse than our DH production from last year. He's doing all right against lefties (.821 OPS) but absolutely putrid against righties (a Mac-like .596 OPS) so he might be half of the answer (actually more like 1/3 of it) but definitely is not the full answer. And he's been awful for the past two months (.647 OPS in May, .618 in June). Next.

Jose Bautista: Bautista has always hit lefties well -- he has a career .819 OPS against them -- and this season is no exception. Jose is batting .302/.383/.472/.855 against portsiders, definitely well enough to be the right-handed third of a DH platoon. But he has always been a bad hitter against righties, and this season, far from being an exception, has been much worse -- we're talking .217/.397/.250 bad, albeit in just 80 plate appearances. You'll notice from the high OBP that Bautista has earned a lot of walks against righties, and that's certainly true. On the flipside, he has seemed afraid to swing the bat against them, and perhaps for good reason given his poor hitting. Bautista has a long career of being a bad major-league hitter against righthanded pitching (.683 career OPS against them). Bautista wouldn't be a bad option to DH against lefties, but as an everyday DH he's a terrible choice. And of course DH-ing him would compromise his versatility in the field (since the DH can't replace a fielder unless the pitcher bats). And Jose is needed to spell Rolen fairly frequently.

Russ Adams: Recently called up to the Jays, Russ Adams isn't anybody's first idea of a DH. He has an 81 OPS+ over his major-league career and, up until recently, was a middle infielder. That said, Adams has been attempting to re-make himself into a utility player over the past few seasons, with some success. He hasn't lit up AAA at all the past two seasons, but he had a nice second half last year and started well this season (.876 OPS with Las Vegas in 2009). Of course, you have to look at those numbers in the context of the PCL, but in truth Adams has never been all that bad of a hitter against right-handed pitching. Over Russ' career, he has a .725 OPS against starboard-side hurlers, not great but considerably better than Millar and Bautista are doing against righties at the moment (and, in Bautista's case, over his career). Consider that Adams is in his hitting prime while Millar is way past it. And Russ certainly offers more than either of those two on the basepaths.

An interesting comparison for Adams is Ben Zobrist. Zobrist is the same age as Adams and his career has followed a similar path - a former SS whose plate discipline in the minors didn't translate to the majors right away and who moved from SS amidst concerns about his defense. Zobrist, unlike Adams, is a switch-hitter, but he's pretty much exclusively used as a lefty hitter and has remade himself as a platoon utility player and corner-infielder. Zobrist had a great 1/3 or so of a season last year in that role and has been even better this season in the same role. He's not all that different of a hitter than Adams and, while I'm not suggesting Adams will put up an OPS north of 1.000 in 225 plate appearances, as Zobrist has done thusfar, there's at least some precedent for the idea that a former middle-infield prospect can become a successful platoon-type corner outfielder.

Randy Ruiz: Ruiz, essentially a career minor-leaguer, has a nice track record in the minors, and is currently OPS-ing .971 with AAA Las Vegas, with solid power numbers. On the other hand, he's a right-handed hitter (though he has hit well against righties in the minors) so a platoon isn't really an option and his hitting didn't translate to the majors last season in his first taste of the bigs (at 30). He probably wouldn't be any worse than starting Millar every day, but that doesn't necessarily make him a great option as an everyday DH.

David Dellucci: Dellucci was recently acquired by the Jays as a lefthanded bat and has been playing a bit in AAA. Looch hit .275/.333/.350 in 45 plate appearances for Cleveland earlier this season, isn't doing much in the minors, and is 3 years removed from his last even league average season. His bat speed seems to be fading. I don't think he's the answer either.

Brian Dopirak: He's only at AA, but with the 1st base and DH spots occupied by guys hitting well (Ruiz and Brett Harper) at AAA, he's more than earned a promotion and with the hole we have at DH, why not to the bigs? There's no doubt that Dopirak's line -- .307/.369/.580, with 16 home runs, 22 doubles, and 1 triple in 291 plate appearances -- is impressive, and he's 25 years old so there's no argument that he's too young. Dopirak, like Ruiz , Millar, and Bautista, bats righthanded, so he would need to be the everyday DH to get the at-bats he'd need to make it worth bringing him up. He's hit righties quite well this season though.

????: I haven't heard the Jays to be seriously involved in trade talks for a bat, but it's possible they could bring someone in from outside the organization to DH. Dakers has mentioned Nick Johnson, and he's certainly a good hitter (126 lifetime OPS+). He's putting up excellent numbers in a pitchers' park right now, and he is a patient, tough out with a gap to gap approach. Folks have said he's having a career year, but he's not -- he's in with his career numbers, but just healthy after an awful string of bad luck and accidents. DHing might keep him healthy, and his contract runs out at the end of this season so I can't imagine the Nationals would want more than a minor-league arm or two for him. It might be worth a look. Other possibilities? For sentimental reasons, how about Frank Catalanotto? He wouldn't cost more than a PTBNL, I'd imagine. But he hasn't done anything this season and he wasn't great last year either, so I'm not sure what type of upgrade he'd be over Dellucci. There are other bats available, so by all means, who do you want to DH for the Jays? Unless they make a move for Johnson or someone else, I'm afraid the best option is a Bautista/Adams or Millar/Adams platoon, and that's not exactly encouraging if the Jays plan to continue to contend, is it? So let's hear it -- who would you DH from now on?

Title from a great song by the great Madison, Wisconsin band Rainer Maria

Feeling a Draft

erik — Tue, 26 May 2009 10:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Frank Franklin II - AP

The greatest player to be drafted #1 overall?

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Previously, we reminisced over a few of the drafts from the 1990's. Now, let's look at the bigger picture and see what we can learn by studying all of the drafts from the previous decade (1990 through 1999).

First, let me explain my methodology:

Thanks to baseball-reference's handy draft tool, I was able to compile all the names and pertinent details for every player drafted in the first round over the ten year period.
Next, I headed over to Rally's historical WAR database and added the WAR totals for each player's first six seasons in the big leagues (not including September call-ups). Again, we look at the first six seasons because that is when a player is under team control and not yet eligible for free agency. Obviously, players get a lot more expensive once they become free agents and won't be a member of the organization that drafted them if they don't want to be.
With the six year WAR totals, I created different groupings of drafted players: high school players, college players, pitchers, hitters, and various combinations, and found the average WAR per season for each grouping.

First, we'll separate the picks from the top to the bottom of the first round to get an idea of talent distribution in the first round:

Pick Range	Avg. WAR per year per player
1 Thru 5	1.20
6 Thru 10	0.85
11 Thru 15	0.66
16 Thru 20	0.72
21 Thru 30	0.24

To no one's surprise, top ten draft picks saw the best results, but oddly enough, picks 16-20 outperformed picks 11-15, on average.
Number one overall picks averaged 2 WAR per season, and they included some notable busts (Brien Taylor, Paul Wilson) as well as future Hall-of-Famers (Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones).
The talent thinned considerably after the first 20 picks, so it's no wonder why of some teams with these picks opt to sign a Type A free agent, even if it means they give their pick away. That's not to say that late first round picks are without value, but the drop off was significant.

Now let's visit the college players vs. high school players debate. College players out-played high schoolers, with an average WAR per season of .7 to .65, but what happens when we separate the hitters and pitchers?

College Hitters	0.93
College Pitchers	0.56
HS Hitters	0.80
HS Pitchers	0.44

This is nearly the same as what Victor Wang found: High school pitchers as a whole are bad. College hitters are good.

But wait. While it is early in the current decade and a lot can change, so far high school pitchers are on the upswing. First round high school arms from the years '00-'04 are averaging .8 WAR per season.

Next, let's check out the split between RHP and LHP in the high school and college ranks:

College LHP	0.72
College RHP	0.50
HS LHP	0.29
HS RHP	0.50

I'm not sure if it's because of a smaller sample, but it is interesting, especially considering there are a lot of first round-worthy lefties in the upcoming 2009 draft. Here college lefties were pretty close in value to high school hitters, while high school southpaws bombed worse than any other grouping -- C.C. Sabathia was the only success of the group. Again, this fact has changed dramatically during 2000 through 2004 drafts thanks to the likes of Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels and John Danks. High school lefties so far are averaging 1.1 WAR per season.

There's one last split we'll look at, and that is between position players. Because high school players and college players are so close, we will just keep them together and divide them by position:

Shortstops	1.00
Corner IF	0.85
Catchers	0.80
Outfielders	0.79

A-Rod. Jeter. Nomar. Shortstops typically are your most athletic hitter and as a group they handily outperformed all the other position groupings. I didn't separate corner outfielders with center fielders because many times B-R made no distinction, just classifying the player as "OF". There were so few players drafted as a 2B that they were not worth looking at.

Is there a lesson here? Well, TINSTAAP is a beast. First round pitchers, be it from the high school or college pools were riskier than hitters. But while drafting hitters was less dicey, the draft is a crap shoot with 62% of all 1st rounders busting. Just 7% of first round picks were above average regulars (worth 3 WAR or more per season). There might be some measures teams can take to lessen the risks, like using their 1st pick on a hitter, but when it comes down to it, clubs must do their due diligence, call a name on draft day and then hope for the best.

I Won't Resign Before This Struggle Ends; So I'll Construct This Sound Defense: An Advance Look at the Jays Defense in 2009

hugo — Sun, 29 Mar 2009 15:34:56 -0000

Not too long ago, we took a look at the Jays' pitchers for 2009, using tRA and tRA+. Now let's look at a related factor in preventing runs, defense. Defense in baseball is a fascinating thing - while it is clearly very important in determining a players' value and for a team in preventing runs, particularly at certain positions, there is no perfect way to measure it. We'll use a number of stats in this analysis of what can be expected of the Jays' defense in 2009.

In 2008, the Jays finished 2nd in the American League (to Tampa) in defensive efficiency, a stat that measures the skill of a team's defense in converting batted balls into outs. As one might imagine, this is an extremely important metric in that the sample size of batted balls over the course of a year is large enough that it is useful and it appropriately weighs the positions in which defense is most important (since those positions have to play more balls). As you can see, the quality of the Jays' defensive play was a big factor in the ability of Jays' pitchers to prevent runs.

That said, there is every reason to believe that the 2009 Jays will be even better.

Catcher:

Starting behind the plate, Rod Barajas was an above-average catcher defensively, as measured by things like passed balls and runners attempting to steal (12 runs above average per Baseball Prospectus, 6 runs above replacement per SBN sister Beyond the Boxscore. Gregg Zaun, who caught in 79 games as compared to Barajas' 98, was not. Although Barajas is a year older, starting the year with Big Rod (also his porn-star name) behind the dish should more than compensate for that. How we could see a decline: if Barajas gets hurt and Michael Barrett becomes the everyday catcher, he's never been known for his receiving prowess.

First Base:

At first base, Lyle Overbay had yet another excellent year in the field in 2008. Fielding Bible's +/- had him at +12 in 2008, and has him as the third-bast fielding first baseman in either league over the past 3 years. Beyond the Boxscore's fielding runs above average, UZR, and Baseball Prospectus all agree that Overbay is an excellent fielding first baseman. And none of these fielding systems account for one of Lyle's greatest defensive skills, scooping errant throws out of the dirt. Although Lyle is a year older, good-fielding first basemen tend to age well defensively. There's absolutely no reason to believe he'll be any less than excellent again in 2009. How we could see a decline: If Overbay doesn't start hitting lefties again, we could see a lot of Kevin Millar and/or Jose Bautista at first base against them. Millar hasn't been a good fielder at first since his Ruddy Hose days, and Bautista looked awful at first in limited action last year.

Second Base:

Moving over to second base, there's no doubt that Joe Inglett did an excellent job filling in last year when Aaron Hill went down to a concussion. Beyond the Box Score ranked him as the 15th most valuable second baseman in the game in 2009, which is quite good for an injury-fill in who didn't even get to play a full season. All the metrics (other than UZR, which for some reason, didn't like Joe at all) had Inglett as slightly above-average for a second baseman in the field, with Plus/Minus liking him best at +7. That said, Aaron Hill is in a different class defensively, The Fielding Bible ranked him best in all of baseball in 2007, his last full season, and 3rd best in all of baseball over the past 3 years (and that's including his injury-marred 2008) and UZR has always been a huge fan of his as well. If Hill is on the field, this is a substantial defensive improvement at an important position. How we could see a decline: I don't know, a string of injuries whereby Russ Adams is manning second?

Third Base:

At the hot corner, Scott Rolen enjoyed another excellent season with the glove in 2008 in the 115 games he was able to play. Only Adrian Beltre played a better third base than Rolen, according to Beyond the Boxscore, and +/- consistently ranks him as one of the best in the game, as does UZR. That said, Marco Scutaro did a lot of the filling-in for Rolen last season, and Marco was, if anything, even better at third base than was Rolen. The stats suggest that Scutaro has always been a quality-fielding third baseman. So while Rolen staying on the field would certainly increase the Jays' offensive productivity from the hot corner, it likely wouldn't make much of a difference fielding-wise. How we could see a decline: If Rolen isn't able to play, we may see a lot of Jose Bautista at third base. Bautista is not a good fielder at third.

Shortstop:

Moving on to the important six hole, Marco Scutaro played about 500 innings there in 2008, and the fielding stats agree that he did an excellent job. BtB had him at over 2 wins over average in the field (21 runs), while the Fielding Bible put him at +12 in 2008. UZR also rated Scutaro incredibly highly, 19.7/150 games, which agreed with BtB that he was worth about 2 full wins in the field above replacement. Now, Scutaro had never really been well-regarded as a defensive shortstop before, so those numbers appear suspect, but when all the fielding stats agree that is usually pretty good evidence, at least for that year. Scutaro essentially split playing time at SS three ways with John McDonald and David Eckstein, and it looks like Mac will be back and Eckstein won't. If Scutaro gets more playing time and plays like he did last year, defense at short would improve, since Eckstein was lousy with the glove in 2008 (exactly as far below average as Scutaro was above) and Mac was average at best (at least, if you look at +/-, FRAA, and UZR and not announcer comments). If Mac plays like he did in 2007 defensively, that'd also be a boost. How we could see a decline: If Scutaro gets hurt or proves last season was a total flash-in-the-pan. However, even if he is merely average with the glove but gets more of the playing time, things will stay the same from last season overall.

Centre Field:

In the outfield, Vernon Wells had a terrible 2008 with the glove by any metric. Or, to look at it another way, +/- though Wells was even better than gold-glove winner Nate McLouth (McLouth was rated by FB, by far, as the worst centre fielder in baseball, Wells was third-worst). This really hurt Wells' value. What's intersting, though, is Wells was never a bad centre-fielder defensively before. On the contrary, UZR thought Wells put together many solid seasons in a row before an average 2007 that was marred by injury. Now, it's possible that Wells has declined and is now a well-below average centrefielder. But it's also possible that either it was a 1-year blip or that Wells' hamstring injury slowed him down in the field. If Wells is recovered, one could see him bouncing back to at least average defensive levels. During the 60 or so games Wells missed, Alexis Rios got the bulk of the time in centre and he was outstanding. Fielding Bible had him at +11 and UZR thinks he is the best defensive outfielder, give or take, in all of baseball. If Wells plays more, that means less of Rios' outstanding work, unless Cito heeds our advice and starts flipping the two from time to time, or giving Wells some DH work, which would cut into the overall gain in defense one would expect. How we could see a decline: If Wells is healthy enough to stay in centrefield but continues the poor play we saw there in 2008.

Right Field:

Alex Rios played most of the Jays' right field innings and as we discussed, he was spectacular by any metric. When Rios was in centre, Brad Wilkerson saw most of the time in right and was quite decent in the field. Expect more excellence from Rios in 2009. How we could see a decline: Rios has to man centre and Travis Snider doesn't show well in right field. That's unlikely to be a significant decline at all, though.

Left Field:

In left, Adam Lind, Kevin Mench, Shannon Stewart, Brad Wilkerson, Joe Inglett, and Travis Snider all played double-digit games, with Lind getting the most work (71 games). Lind was a bad outfielder in 2008 after a surprisingly excellent showing in let in 2007. The others were all ok at a not-particularly-important defensive position. Travis Snider appears set to take most of the innings in leftfield in 2009 and while he hasn't looked great there this spring, one would think he would have to be better than Lind since the Jays are set to DH Lind most of the time and put Snider in left. I also think Lind should improve in the field, at least from 2008, so we're likely to see an overall improvement, if a small one. How we could see a decline: Jose Bautista has looked awful in the outfield in limited time this spring. Snider hasn't exactly looked good there either.

So, there you have it. At no position are we likely to see a defensive decline from 2008's excellent heights, and we are set for at least one big improvement at 2nd base. Other positions where the Jays could very likely improve are centrefield, shortstop, and catcher. These are, by far, the four most important defensive positions on the diamond, meaning the Jays are very likely to be even better defensively in 2009 than they were in 2008. At the very least, their excellent defense from last year should continue.

Thanks to Bad Religion for our ridiculously appropriate title.

Top 50 All-Time Jays: #12 Shannon Stewart

Tom Dakers — Mon, 23 Mar 2009 19:36:29 -0000

Shannon Harold Stewart | LF, CF | 1995-2003, 2008

Shannon Stewart was born February 25, 1974 in Cincinnati, Ohio. He was drafted by the Blue Jays in the first round of 1992 amateur draft, the 19th pick overall, out of Miami Southridge High School. He was a compensation pick for the Dodgers signing free agent Tom Candiotti. He rose quickly thru the Jays farm system and was a September call-up in 1995 and 1996. In 1997 Shannon was called up in mid-August and was given the full time CF job for the rest of the season after Otis Nixon was traded to the Dodgers.

In 1998 Stewart spent the whole season with the Jays. He played 44 games in CF and 110 games in LF. He had plenty of range to play in center but didn't have the arm strength. He mostly hit lead off but did bat some in the 2 and 3 spot in the order. He had a really good season batting .279/.377/.417, hit 12 home runs, stole 51 bases (third in the AL) , scored 90 runs and drove in 55. He was also 4th in the league in being hit by pitch with 15. He was just the 5th player in team history to steal 50 bases in a season.

1999 Stewart played 145 games and again hit very well .304/.371/.411, he scored 102 runs, drove in 67 and stole 37 bases 4th in the AL. An often injured player this season he hurt an ankle in September and missed 10 games.

In 2000 Shannon had his best season with the bat setting his career high in batting average (.318), slugging (.518), run (107) and homers (21). He also had 43 doubles, 69 RBI and 20 stolen bases. He started the season off right hitting a leadoff home run in the first game of the year. He hit .381 when leading of the game that year with 5 homers. But again he missed playing time being on the DL, playing in 136 games.

Stewart set his career high for games played (155), at bats (640) and hits (202) in 2001. He had another great season with the bat hitting .316/.371/.463 and scored 103 runs and received a MVP vote. He came in 8th in the AL in batting average, 3rd in hits and doubles. And was only the 4th player in team history to get 200 hits.

In 2002 Stewart had another very good season batting over .300 (.303) for the 4 season in a row and scored over 100 runs (103). Again a terrific leadoff hitter getting on base at a .371 rate, though he wasn't the base stealer he had been in the past, stealing only 14 bases. He hit third in a handful of game as well. He did miss time on the DL list again with hamstring troubles. He played left field mostly though he DHed 38 times.

2003 he started the season well again but on July 16 the Jays traded him to the Minnesota Twins for Bobby Kielty. Trading him wasn't a bad idea; he was 29 and did have injury issues and he did everything well but didn't do anything very well and players like that tend not to age well. I thought, at the time, we could have done better than Bobby Kielty in exchange for him, but then we flipped Kielty for Ted Lilly, after the season, so it turned out ok.

The Twins got a couple of good seasons out of him but he lost most time to injury and his numbers declined quickly, but he did get into the post season with the Twins in 2003 and 2004. From the Twins he went to Oakland and had an ok season there, then the Jays picked him up for the 2008 season. The less said about that the better, though I still don't understand what they thought they were getting, the man hadn't slugged .400 since 2004 and the only position he could play was left field, a position where average offence isn't good enough.

If Shannon's career is over, he's had a good one, 14 seasons, 1653 hits, 853 runs and a .297 average. Without the injuries his career could have been that much better but then if wishes were horses then beggars would ride.

Another thing that could have helped his career out would have been if the Jays had a different manager. Cito Gaston, back in those days, didn't like to go with young players and Stewart is one of several that lost a season or two at the start of his career. In 1986 and 1987 the Jays had an aging Otis Nixon in center field. Now Nixon wasn't a bad player but he wasn't the sort that should have kept Shannon Stewart out of the lineup. In fairness to Cito the team was in ‘win now' mode during his first stint with the team. Now he can relax and let young players have their chance.

He'd have to be considered the team's best ever lead off hitter for his time in the role from 1998 to 2003. He is married. And ummmm when you search for pictures of the man, you will find some interesting ones, there is a ‘model' named Shannon Stewart. She looks somewhat different from our Stewart.

Shannon Stewart's place among Jay batting leaders:

Batting Average (>2000 PA) 2nd .298
On base % (>2000 PA) 5th .365
Slugging average (>2000 PA) 13th .440
Games 15th 907
At bats 8th 3625
Runs 6th 595
Hits 6th 1082
Doubles 6th 222
Triples 6th 34
Home Runs 19th 74
RBI 15th 370
Walks 10th 337
Steals 5th 166
Run Created 6th 600
Hit by pitch 4th 57
Power/Speed Number 3rd 102.4

At the End of Every Hard-Earned Day People Find Some Reason to Believe

hugo — Mon, 05 Jan 2009 19:56:45 -0000

Though I am risking thewrath of the Drunks by quoting Springsteen (c'mon - Nebraska? one of the Boss' masterpieces, no?) I wanted to take this opportunity to point out some reasons to believe that things will not be as bad for the Jays as some seem to think. I'm not saying I'm expecting a World Series victory parade through the streets of T-Dot, but there are reasons to look forward to this season and not dread it. For example:

The Jays had the 2nd best run differential in the AL last season, and the 4th best in all of baseball. Run differential is the best indicator of team ability and it suggests that the 2008 Jays were very unlucky.
Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in the league (sorry, C.C., 10 career points of ERA+ against tougher competition) and is coming off one of his best seasons.
Jesse Litsch, who has been ridiculed as a #2 starter, has put together two seasons of 118 ERA+ before his age 24 birthday. In his second big league season, he brought his K/9 up by a full strikeout per nine while dropping his walk rate a full walk per nine. His velocity was up and his home runs allowed were down. He will have to prove himself again, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this guy knows how to pitch.
Much is made of the fact that A.J. Burnett, Dustin McGowan, and Marcum will be gone to start the season. However, McGowan only pitched 111 innings of so-so ball last season and he could easily contribute more to the team this season, making him an addition to, not a subtraction from, last season.
In that vein, though it was likely through no fault of his own, A.J. Burnett only put up a 105 ERA+ last season. it is not at all unthinkable that Casey Janssen, who was quite a good pitcher before a devastating labrum injury, could equal that if he is healthy, which he appears to be. Recently Jordan Bastian suggested that Janssen was a likely rotation candidate.
Brett Cecil is only 22 and looks great. Does he have the endurance for a full season as a starter this year? No. But is he at the talent level where he's ready to make a contribution to the major-league team as an above-average pitcher? It sure looks that way.
Marcel projection for Scott Richmond in 2009 is a 4.10 FIP. With the Jays defense, that could easily mean a sub 4 ERA for the Jays. Not a first option, but that's darn good for a 5th/6th starter.
David Purcey is poised to improve by as much as a full run of ERA as compared to his production from last season, based on his overall performance last season.
The Jays had one of the best team defenses in baseball last year and everyone will be back, with possible improvements due to Vernon Wells being healthier and Aaron Hill returning.
Jays' left fielders hit .258/.325/.384 last season. Travis Snider should have no trouble beating that, and significantly.
Jays' DHs hit ..247/.325/.418 last season. Even if Adam Lind doesn't improve at all from last season, he will be better than that.
Shannon Stewart (69 OPS+), Brad Wilkerson (68 OPS+), and Kevin Mench (81 OPS+) had a full season's worth of plate appearances between the three of them last season. God willing, that will not happen this year.
The Jays' offense scored 4.7 runs per game over the second half of the season. As of now it is looking like each member of that offense will be back with the Jays this season.
Scott Rolen hit .307/.354/.523, right in line with his career numbers, after adjusting his swing to compensate for decreased range of motion in his shoulder. Is he a sure thing to do so in 2009? - far from it, but it is certainly a reason to be optimistic. If he can put up those kind of numbers or anywhere close with his defense, that's a huge deal.
Supporting the Jays' young rotation will be last season's best bullpen in baseball, and by a large margain. All the key parts will be back this year, and adding Accardo and a full season of League could make this year's pen even better.
The offseason isn't over yet.

Again, I'm not saying the Jays will win it all this season, but these are some reasons to think they can. This was a good team last year and there are these reasons, and more, to think that it will be a good team in 2009.

The Dangling Conversation: Ongoing Blue Jays Offseason Conversation

hugo — Fri, 14 Nov 2008 14:04:51 -0000

Greetings, fellow corvid-philes. Simon and Garfunkel ring in our newest ongoing feature, which is going to be an ongoing back and forth conversation between the site's two main bloggers, rince and yours truly. We'll be asking each other questions and getting into the big questions of the offseason very soon, but let's first take a bit of a look back. Please e-mail us your questions or just leave them in the comments, and chime in as you see fit. Without further adieu:

Hugo: So what were the biggest positives and negatives for Jays’ fans to take away from this season?

Rincewind: Biggest positives? The bullpen was almost unbelievably good, considering Accardo and Janssen were hurt all season. Carlson came out of nowhere. Ryan came back from Tommy John much better than anyone could have hoped. Downs was brilliant, lights out, damn near perfect. League became the pitcher we hoped he would become. Tallet was great, Parrish did well as a reliever and even Shawn Camp and Jason Frasor had the odd useful moment. I am not sure all that all can happen again.

Hugo: Yeah, it’s amazing to think that the bullpen could even get better from last season’s unbelievable performance, but if Accardo returns healthy, Ryan continues to improve his control post-surgery and League pitches as he did last year for the whole season, anything is possible. I’m guessing that Frasor and Tallet will be gone next season, as they can be replaced with non-arbitration eligible arms. Ryan is also a possible trade candidate, but I’m not sure the Jays will be comfortable dealing him, especially with talk about using Downs and/or Janssen in the rotation next season. But with at least most of Downs-Ryan-Janssen-Accardo-League-Carlson Wolfe set to return, not to mention some good young pitchers in the Jays’ system, next season could be another great one for the pen.

There weren’t many positives offensively, but I did enjoy watching Vernon Wells come back with a healthy shoulder and do a fine job offensively in the games he was able to play. Rolen looked comfortable at the end of the season and Lind and Snider both showed glimpses of what they can do as offensive players.

The defense was great again, although the early metrics are suggesting it might be time for Vernon Wells and Alexis Rios to switch places in the outfield.

Rincewind: Offensively I think my favorite player to watch this season was likely Joe Inglett. He got on base well and had the occasional hit with RISP. It is too bad he can’t play SS, he’d be perfect there and leading off. And you are right Moonraker was fun to watch and Rolen’s new stance at the plate seemed to play off, I hope it carries over.

I guess we skipped maybe the biggest positive in Roy Halladay, his ‘problem’ is we expect him to have this sort of season every year so he gets ignored. Doc has so much value, not just for his pitching, which is terrific, but because every fifth day the bullpen gets a rest. With Purcey and Litsch rarely going deep into games it is good to have one game out of every 5 where you know at worst the pen will only have to give you a couple of innings and often not have to use the pen at all.

Until his injury Shawn Marcum was also amazing, at the end of June his ERA was 2.70. Litsch turned in a fine season too and AJ, who would have imagined he could make 34 starts in a season while striking out just about everyone.

Hugo: Great point about Doc. How about the negatives?

Rincewind: Negatives? Less power than I could have imagined, the odd home run early in the year would have made things so much better.

Hugo: The hitting was a huge bummer pretty much all season, I agree. It’d be easier to chalk it up to an off-year if the Jays hadn’t been so terrible at the plate in 2007 as well. What’s worse is that in 2007 the Jays were futile against righty pitching, and in 2008 they were awful against lefty pitching, with mostly the same lineup. So which do we focus on for next season? The trouble with the offense is that there are a lot of players who are offensively average and some who are below average for their positions, but no one who stands out offensively. Hitting for power was definitely a problem, but the Jays didn’t show much of a knack for getting on base either. Part of the problem is that their cornerstone offensive players, Alex Rios and Vernon Wells, aren’t good at getting on base.

I would say that the biggest negatives were the loss of McGowan, Marcum, and Janssen to serious arm surgeries. Marcum and McGowan were well on their way to being above-average starters, and Janssen looked great in the spring in the starting role that it appeared the Jays were grooming him for. All three were home-grown, Marcum and Janssen looked like draft-day coups for Ricciardi, McGowan was finally living up to his first-round potential, and then it all came crashing down. Now Casey and Dustin will have to attempt recovery from labrum surgery, something many pitchers are not able to successfully do, and return this season, and both may be needed for starting roles. As for Marcum, he will miss the whole year with ligament replacement surgery, but one may be more confident in his long-term health.

Rincewind: I guess on the list of negatives another top one would be JP’s decision to sign Wilkerson and trade for Mench, which goes with his choice of sending Adam Lind back to the minors after only a handful of at bats. When he signed Wilk, to me, it put to a lie his line that this was the Jay’s season to make the playoffs. He needed to find a bat that could lift the offense (Bonds?), instead he picked up someone that the powerhouse Mariners gave up on.

This goes hand in hand with his decision to go into the season with two 40 year olds in important offensive positions with only one back up plan (Lind) in case their bats should slow. Add in his wonderful choice of Shannon Stewart over Reed Johnson and his not having a better back up for a Scott Rolen when he had to know that Rolen can’t play 150 games anymore.

So maybe the biggest negative was JP’s inability to see offensive weaknesses in his team.

Hugo: Yeah, the DH spot was a huge problem. For another team it wouldn’tve been such a big deal, but for a team like the Jays that was already giving away offense for defense at other positions, they really could not afford to have such poor production at the DH spot. We still have some offensive weak spots, and there’s no way we can afford another poor DH season this year. We don’t necessarily need a huge bat (though it sure would be nice), but we definitely need above-average offensive production from the spot. I tend to agree with you about J.P., using Mencherson for so many at-bats, dropping Lind after just 19 at-bats when the Jays didn't have anyone better, and dumping Thomas without a plan to replace him hurt the Jays a lot this season.

Hugo: Well, that's it for this time. Join us in a few days, when we will begin to really get into what the Jays might do, and what they need to do, this offseas and heading into next season!

Projections vs. Real Life, Part Two

Tom Dakers — Mon, 20 Oct 2008 23:57:38 -0000

Part two of comparing the player's season with Baseball Prospectus' projections.

John McDonald
                        PA     R 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB    BA   OB   SA
Projected     188   18 8    1    1    15   9   26 5    .246 .288 .330
Actual           207    21 8   0    1    18 10   25 3   .210 .255 .269
Mac actually played more than they thought he would, unfortunately he also he even worse than they thought he would. They got the number of doubles and home runs right. I know he's on the team for his glove but he has to hit a little more than that.

Scott Rolen
                        PA   R 2b  3b HR RBI BB SO SB     BA OB    SA
Projected      462 55 26   2 13   59 38 67   4   .263 .328 .430
Actual            467 58 30   3 11   50   46 71    5    .262 .349 .431
Sometimes the BP guys are so close it is scary, missed his plate appearances by 5. 1 point off on his BA and SA, the only thing they miss was his on base, he took a few more walks than they expected. Too bad they couldn't have told him to change his swing to relieve the stress on his shoulder earlier in the season, could have saved him a bit of time on the DL.

Alex Rios
                        PA   R   2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB   BA     OB    SA
Projected      637 88 36   6   20 83   49 108 16 .280 .339 .468
Actual            686 91 47   8   15 79   44 112 32 .291 .337 . 461
Alex played even more than they figured he would, of course with the rest of the outfield blowing up he had to play almost every day. He hit a lot more doubles then they thought but made up for that by hitting fewer home runs and I thought their guess was pretty conservative when the season started. Walk rate was a little lower than they expected but BA was a little higher, so all in all they were pretty close. He doubled their guess on stolen bases. If we get to choose, next year I'd rather he double their guess for homers.

Vernon Wells
                      PA   R   2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB    BA   OB    SA
Projected    609 79 32   3 21   82 51   88   9   .270 .333 .454
Actual           466 63 22 1 20   78 29   46   4   .300 .343 .496
Can't blame them for not foreseeing the injuries but other than that, he had a much much better season than they predicted. Didn't have the walk rate they thought but hit with far more power and much better average. Hopefully that bodes well for next season; he can have the monster year we'd all like him to have.

Matt Stairs
                     PA    R 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB   BA   OB    SA
Projected   346 49 20 1   16   58   39 62 2 .276 .361 .511
Actual         368 42 11   1   11 44   41 87   1 .250 .342 .394
Other than being pretty close on the plate appearances and walk rate, they couldn't have missed this one more if they had tried. The guy had an awful year, though I'm pretty sure none of us would have guessed his slugging average would have been under .400, but hoping for over .500 seems like it wasn't really ground in reality either. I'm sure I've mentioned it before but when Gibby and Denbo were fired, Matt said ‘now you'll see me start hitting'. Well, he got worse after they left. I thought at the time it was a stupid thing to say, a 40 year old veteran shouldn't be blaming the hitting coach for an off year.

Adam Lind
                       PA    R 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB     BA    OB   SA
Projected    473 54 26 2   16   64 35 97   3   .267   .324   .443
Actual          349 48 16 4     9    40 16   59   2   .282   .316   .439
He didn't get the at bats they projected or the at bats he should have got, considering the guys we played in the outfield in front of him. His walk rate was worse than they thought it would be and really too low for a major league outfielder unless his slugging average is in .550 or more. His home run rate was lower than projected too, they figured a homer about every 30 PA but he hit one every 39 PA, which for a corner outfielder with no speed and few walks isn't good enough. Of course since he didn't hit one out for the last month and a half of the season, maybe it was just a prolonged slump and he'll be back hitting them out next year. He'd better, Snider isn't much behind him.

Shannon Stewart
                      PA   R 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB   BA    OB    SA
Projected   435 48 18   2   6    46 32 47   6   .271 .328 .374
Actual         200 14   4 2 1    14   22 18   3   .240 .325 .303
Looking at his projection, I still wonder what the heck they were thinking inviting this guy to spring training. What did they think would happen? And, of course, he didn't even come close to the projection. Except for a far better strikeout to walk rate, which brought up his on base to about what was projected.

Brad Wilkerson
                        PA   R 2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB BA    OB    SA
Projected     365 47 17 2   14  47   42 96   5 .271 .328 .374
Actual           241 20   8    2    4 25   25 53   2 .216 .297 .332
He was projected to have a pretty miserable season, but with 14 home runs and managed to have a completely awful season with 4 homers. I can't believe they figured him to hit .271, a pretty empty .271 but still a reasonable average. I wonder if he has played himself out of baseball yet.

Frank Thomas
                      PA R   2b 3b HR RBI BB SO SB BA    OB   SA
Projected   425 52  20 0   20 69   58   68   2 .257 .362 .485
Actual           60   7    1   0     3 11    11 13    0 .167 .306 .333
I wasn't going to include Big Frank in this but if he had the season he was projected to, it would have been a different year for the Jays. Now I don't think they would have made the playoffs or anything like that but it is hard to imagine how many things would be different right now. Maybe they wouldn't have had Lind come up. Maybe, well likely, we wouldn't have seen Snider in a Jay's uniform this year. Maybe we wouldn't have been treated to Wilk or Mench. Would Gibby still be manager? There are a whole mess of ‘what ifs?' But we are stuck with the real world, where Thomas didn't hit.

Joe Inglett only got a passing mention in the book; he came out of nowhere. That 's all the batters....later in the week we'll look at the pitchers.