SB Nation - Mike Cameron

Selective Application Of Statistics

James Kannengieser — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 11:00:17 -0000

A common refrain of those who do not like their baseball analysis inundated with statistics is something along these lines:

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

This is usually uttered by those unwilling to let statistics disprove perceptions. In general, this is a silly statement. Statistics exist to measure whatever it is they set out to measure and nothing more. Numbers alone cannot deceive, as long as the benefits and limitations of such numbers are understood. Stats like wOBA and UZR are frequently cited here, but only because the writers and most members of the community comprehend the context neutral linear weights concept behind wOBA and the sample size limitations of UZR. Criticizing statistics without fully understanding their strengths and weaknesses happens more than it should, unfortunately, and is a major pet peeve. That said, it is true that statistics can be used by people to unfairly support biased arguments.

A post about Mike Cameron at Metsmerized provided an example of the thought that stats are sometimes used to bolster pre-conceived biased positions:

I think that more and more people would accept advanced metrics if the stats weren’t used so often to strengthen just one side of an argument.

I’m not knocking advanced metrics, but I do find fault with them when they are used to make unfair comparisons.

The point here seems to be that advanced metrics are used as a weapon to trumpet players like Cameron who, atleast in the eyes of the MMO writer, isn't as good as Fangraphs suggests. This couldn't be further from the truth. Advanced stats are cited only because the methodologies behind their calculation have been investigated, questioned and eventually accepted by the best minds in the sabermetric community. If I invented a stat and continued citing it despite being discredited by Tom Tango or Colin Wyers, my credibility would be shot. WAR, UZR, Plus/Minus, etc., have been scrutinized by the likes of The Hardball Times and Statistically Speaking and been accepted as worthwhile metrics. It's not some nonsense created with the intention of making money or fooling people. The other point about the inability to compare the values of players who play different positions is also invalid, as posts like this one by Mark illustrate.

I like to think I'm generally unbiased in any analysis I provide so coming up with an example of my own selective application of statistics is impossible. Endy Chavez is one of my favorite players but I wouldn't project a .350 wOBA as part of an argument in favor of signing him. However, I'd like to offer an example of how even an enlightened writer might appear to be selectively using numbers to agree with an agenda. Howard Megdal of SNY, MLBTR and about three dozen other outlets is a well known Oliver Perez fanatic (just look at the Baseball-Reference sponsor for the RMS ~~Titanic~~ Perez). Unsurprisingly, he has often provided opinion on Derek Lowe, a pitcher the Mets reportedly pursued last offseason before eventually settling on Perez. In a post at MLBTradeRumors from October about Lowe being available in a trade, Howard wrote:

Lowe is coming off of a season with a 4.67 ERA along with a strikeout rate of just 5.1 per nine innings. He certainly didn't finish strong, with a 5.05 second-half ERA, and a 6,23 [sic] mark from September 1 on.

ERA isn't my pitching statistic of choice but sure, Lowe had a somewhat disappointing season. At his debate site, the recommended The Perpetual Post, Howard participated in a Lowe vs. Perez discussion in November:

I think it represents the likelihood that Lowe, fresh off of an 88 ERA+, is likely to be around that or below it for the remainder of his three years and $45 million.

A healthy Perez has been considerably better than the 2009 edition of Derek Lowe. Time and reality are converging to bring Derek Lowe’s career to an unceremonious close. It isn’t time to declare Atlanta the winner in the choice of Lowe over Perez just yet.

Again, ERA+ isn't a great metric for evaluating a pitcher's performance but I can live with it. That is until reading this piece by Howard at SNY about Mike Pelfrey:

Pelfrey had a 3.72 ERA last year, while even Sunday's stellar performance only lowered his 2009 ERA to 4.83. But let's take a closer look.

Fangraphs has his FIP at 3.96 last year, 4.18 this year -- a negligible difference in performance over the two seasons.

Wait a second, why is Pelfrey afforded the FIP treatment but Lowe isn't? Lowe's 2009 FIP was 4.06, significantly better than his ERA. He was a victim of an inflated BABIP and subpar defense backing him up, much like Pelfrey. Why not consistently utilize stats for player evaluation? Having read Howard's work for some time now, I doubt he consciously wanted to unfairly paint a negative picture of Lowe. However, this is an example of how a known affinity for one player over another, and subsequent assessment of those players, might cause some readers to question a writer's intentions. In the case of Cameron and Jason Bay, reliable statistics show that the gap between them isn't as large as many think. That this doesn't jibe with most fans' perceptions of the two players has little bearing on whether it is true. Rational people can have differing opinions. Those opinions will certainly be respected as long as they're not served up with a helping of "Get your noses out of the books, and keep your eyes on the ball."

Certain metrics are largely ignored here, with good reason. For pitchers, W-L record and ERA are generally useless. For hitters, RBI doesn't really tell us anything. For fielders, errors and fielding percentage have become archaic. Better metrics are consistently applied and there isn't much bias in player evaluation. Regardless, should any of the AA writers or community members appear to be twisting stats to fit a pre-conceived agenda, I would expect a commenter to blow the whistle. If it happens, please point it out.

Also, happy holidays. Or, alternatively, bah humbug!

Fantasy Baseball: Same As It Ever Was

raygu — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 17:00:26 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - ASSOCIATED PRESS

8 days ago: Los Angeles Dodgers' Juan Pierre dives into third for a triple during the first inning of a baseball game against the Colorado Rockies, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

View full size photo »

On a daily basis, I look forward to reading Buster Olney's blog to see if I can sift some nuggets of information that can help me in my fantasy leagues. Yesterday morning, he posted the following:

Coco Crisp is nearing a deal with the Oakland Athletics, according to late word from MLB Trade Rumors' Tim Dierkes. Presumably Crisp will slot into Oakland's center field and be flanked by Ryan Sweeney and Rajai Davis to make up a strong defensive outfield. This is yet another sign that teams that are most shaped by statistical analysis have determined that defense is the undervalued asset in the current marketplace.

He goes on to talk about the Red Sox recent signing of Mike Cameron to play left field, and the Mariners decision to re-sign shortstop Jack Wilson. We have also seen the White Sox trade for Juan Pierre. Other than Wilson, the 3 guys mentioned have one thing in common for fantasy owners. They can steal bases. They can run fast and they can play good defense.

These trades and signings mark a change in roster construction philosophy that could expand over the next few years. As Olney stated, defense is the undervalued asset in the marketplace. Teams are putting more emphasis on pitching and defense after a decade or so emphasizing the long ball in the steroid era.

It is time for fantasy owners to take notice as we may see a switch to small ball where pitching, defense and speed are emphasized more. Will we see more Coco Crisp/Juan Pierre types winning position battles because he can steal a base and play good defense? This could lead to an increase in stolen bases and a continued drop in home runs and runs scored in 2010 and beyond.

Should the roster construction philosophy of major league teams change to emphasize speed and defense, fantasy owners will have to factor that into their draft day strategy as speed guys will become more abundant and power guys become that much more expensive.

On a separate note, could this change in philospophy lead to the elimination of the designated hitter in the American League?

Poll

As we see more and more teams emphasize improving their defense, will this lead to the elimination of the DH?

The 2009 Off Season's Impact On The Future

ltrain2 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:04:42 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, right, and manager Terry Francona are concerned with much more than just the matters related to 2010's team.

View full size photo »

The Red Sox, beleaguered by talks of a 'bridge period' earlier this off season, caught fans slightly by surprise with their recent flurry of activity within the MLB's Hot Stove Market. Marco Scutaro's arrival in Boston may not have warranted much commotion given the nature of his contract (the length in particular), but the lucrative 5-year deal awarded to pitcher John Lackey has some questioning the exact direction that general manager Theo Epstein is taking the club and the future of pitcher Josh Beckett in particular.

After a very quiet beginning to the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox designated nearly $25 million for next season's payroll with the additions of Mike Cameron and John Lackey alone, moves that will certainly effect those that subsequently follow -- both this season as well as the next.

What does this mean for the likes of Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez, both with expiring contracts, especially considering the addition of Lackey and the potential free-agency of catcher Joe Mauer? With over $50 million in expiring contracts coming off the books following this season, how will management approach the free-agent class of 2010, considered by many to be one of the deepest of its kind in relation to available impact players? If this season is still considered a bridge to the future, then what can fans expect to see from the front office at this time next year?

At the moment, Boston's payroll is hovering around the $170 million dollar mark for the 2010 season (which includes the money owed to former shortstop Julio Lugo). The following players are in the final year of their current contracts; David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Julio Lugo -- contracts that total $55 million. Assuming that Boston doesn't restructure any of the deals involving the aforementioned players, that gives management a large sum of financial freedom to address the incoming class of free-agents, a group that boasts talent trumping that which is offered in this year's crop.

Many have likened the situation to that which resulted in the Red Sox's 2007 World Series Championship. Prior to that season Epstein spent nearly $210 million ($209.1 to be exact) in acquiring J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Again, with the assumption that none of the following players are awarded new deals during the upcoming season, here's a look at the free-agent class of 2010: Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Lance Berkman, Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Pena, Brandon Webb, Jayson Werth. It's a safe bet that someone like Jeter will be retained by the Yankees, but even that scenario leaves a slew of All-Star caliber talent available for the taking.

Similar to last season when the Yankees cleared themselves of nearly $70 million in contractual commitments that led to the signings of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, and ultimately a World Series Championship, Boston will find themselves in a very enviable position heading into next year's Hot Stove action.

It's a safe bet that Boston decides to let the contracts of Varitek and Lowell expire, but what about Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez?

After the signing of John Lackey, Theo Epstein immediately sent a text message assuring Josh Beckett that the addition of Lackey will in no way effect Boston's interest in re-signing him. However, we've seen this before, and nobody can blame Beckett for remaining skeptical regardless of how convincing Epstein may have appeared. After acquiring Curt Schilling in 2003, management sent a similar message to then staff-ace Pedro Martinez, who also found himself entering a contract year at that time. Martinez was not a member of the Red Sox in 2005 as management was never able to work out a deal to retain the right-hander, leading many to question Beckett's future in Boston. John Lackey received a 5-year deal worth $82.5 million dollars this off-season, raising speculation as to how serious the team is about keeping Beckett. It's hard to ignore the likenesses between Lackey and Beckett as pitchers, and with Lackey receiving a contract similar to that which Beckett is expected to command; did Boston simply sign Lackey to replace Beckett upon his departure? The situation is eerily similar to that which led to the end of the 'Pedro era' in Boston.

Victor Martinez is considered a very valuable commodity amongst the Red Sox's lineup. Martinez's ability to play both catcher and first base at a high level makes him just that much more appealing to the Red Sox, who currently owe him just under $8 million this season, making him widely considered one of the best bargains in baseball. However, there has been a lot of discussion recently surrounding the potential trading of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox by the San Diego Padres. If that happens, how will it effect the way in which Boston approaches Martinez's expiring contract? With the versatile slugger likely to command big money in the open market, will Theo then shift his focus to Joe Mauer, assuming that he isn't re-signed by Minnesota this season? With Gonzalez coming to Boston in this scenario, Martinez's ability to play first base becomes less relevant in relation to addressing the team's need for a catcher. It's no secret that Theo loves the type of player that Mauer embodies, and with good reason, as Mauer is regarded as one of the best all-around talents in baseball. Martinez is an ample catcher, but Mauer is a great one. Couple that with the upgrade that Mauer would represent offensively as opposed to V-Mart and it's not a stretch to assume that the Red Sox would rather utilize a good sum of that newly available $55 million on the former MVP/All-Star/Batting Champion/Gold Glover [Mauer].

On the other hand, it's worth mentioning that there has been some speculation that the Red Sox may plan to invest in both Martinez and Mauer, shifting Victor to first base and affording them a more than acceptable option behind the plate on days that they would decide to rest Mauer. Obviously this scenario becomes more likely in the event that Adrian Gonzalez is not acquired via trade.

Another key element that makes Martinez less of a necessity is the availability of Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena next off season, both viable options to fill the void at first base in the event that Boston is unable to retain Martinez. Similarly, Beckett's contract demands may become less appealing given the pending free-agent status' of pitchers Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb and the newly acquired Lackey.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz may also find their time in Boston heavily influenced by the free-agent class of 2010 and the moves made to this point in 2009. Both players have been mentioned in discussions surrounding potential trade scenarios involving Adrian Gonzalez. Does Ellsbury become more expendable with Werth and Crawford being available next season, as well as the recent signing of Mike Cameron? Does Buchholz become easier to part with given the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman and the potential free-agency of both Lee and Webb?

Every move that management makes from here on out must be calculated and will be heavily dependent on other deals that are or are not completed. For instance -- the addition of Lackey aside, even the situation at the catcher position effects the likelihood that starting pitcher Josh Beckett remains with the Red Sox.

Joe Mauer is believed to be in line to receive one of largest contracts in baseball history from whomever he decides to sign with. Therefore, if Martinez opts to explore free-agency and Boston decides to make a push for Mauer, it becomes less likely that they do so successfully while still being able to afford Beckett. Again, John Lackey's signing plays a major role in this as well. It's easier to let Beckett go and pursue Mauer with Lackey locked up for five seasons, and harder to justify retaining Beckett with the same thing in mind.

Going full-circle, it's easier to let Martinez walk with the addition of Gonzalez. In the event that Gonzalez is acquired, it becomes more feasible that Boston goes after Mauer, letting Martinez go and possibly making a concerted effort to retain Beckett.

It is still my belief that the Red Sox are pushing hard to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. In a previous article listed here, I explain that the Red Sox's moves to this point lead me to believe that Gonzalez is the most important player currently on Boston's radar. For one, signing Aroldis Chapman could help justify trading a young pitcher like Buchholz. Also, given the Red Sox's payroll commitments for 2010 and their still-glaring need to acquire a power-hitting corner infielder, the friendly nature of Gonzalez's contract for the next two seasons makes him the most appealing option for Boston if they truly desire an impact player to fill that void while still remaining within the $170 million dollar payroll goal set by Epstein.

However, the Gonzalez trade would be a blockbuster-type deal and is anything but a certainty. In the event that no progress is made in relation to Gonzalez, I think that Boston will shift their attention away from Beckett for the time being and make Victor Martinez their primary focus this season in terms of restructuring any of the expiring contracts. Talks with Martinez will likely correspond with the progress made by Minnesota in retaining Mauer. If it appears that Mauer will re-sign, Martinez should become priority number one in Boston. In the event that Mauer and the Twins cannot find common ground, the Red Sox will assess how badly they want to pursue Mauer, whether it be via trade or during the 2010 off season.

The point being that the signing of John Lackey, as well as any move made from this point on, does more than impact the future of Josh Beckett and the outlook of next year's club. Each move shifts the potential makeup of the roster for years to come. The job of a general manager is one of the most stress-inducing positions in sports for a reason and is not for short-sighted individuals. You can bet that Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office are making every move during the course of this off season with the next one in the back of their minds.

Poll

Who will most likely be a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2011?

The Top 5 Winners in the MLB Off-Season (so far)

doron — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 18:35:35 -0000

More photos » by Seth Wenig - AP

Which teams rank as the top 5 winners in the MLB off-season, so far?

Browse more photos »

After this memorable Hot Stove week, I figured it would be a great time to take a look at the big winners thus far in the MLB off-season. Which teams have made big splashes already, and which teams should be focusing on those remaining free agents? With that in mind, here are my picks for the top five winners thus far in the off-season.

5. Minnesota Twins

While by comparison to the names ahead on this list, the Twins off-season might seem quiet thus far, they’ve been helped by circumstance as much as they’ve helped themselves. The Twins made the first big acquisition of the off-season trading for shortstop JJ Hardy, and relinquishing Carlos Gomez, a trade that most believe favors the Twins. So long as JJ Hardy can recover from a down year in 2009, the Twins will be adding a great bat, with average, power and defense, at a premium position. Add to this the rumors that a Joe Mauer extension is in the works, the loss of Curtis Granderson and Placido Polanco by the Tigers, and the risky moves we’ve seen from the White Sox, and it seems that the Twins are a clear favorite to take the AL Central even with these small moves.

Next Steps: Extending Joe Mauer, and perhaps upgrades at third-base (Adrian Beltre?) or a mid-level starting pitcher.

4. Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have made some great baseball decisions this off-season. For starters, they declined their option on Pedro Feliz and replaced him with a better-defensive player who gets on-base at a better rate in Placido Polanco. Their other big move of course was upgrading staff aces by adding Roy Halladay, despite the loss of Cliff Lee. They gave up some great prospects in the deal, but were at least able to replace them with similar talents. Phillippe Aumont, in particular, may not be far away from being able to help the bullpen of the Phillies, if they decide to keep him in a relief role in the minors. With Doc under contract for the next four years, the Phillies are in a great position to start off the next decade with success.

Next Steps: Bullpen help for Brad Lidge

3. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox off-season seems to have taken hints from the Seattle Mariners with their defense focus. They added Mike Cameron, who will be a gigantic defense upgrade over Jason Bay. They’ve also added solid shortstop Marco Scutaro, who is a versatile defender and, if he can replicate his 2009 season, will be a big offensive boost at the shortstop position that’s hurt them for years. They are also looking to move Mike Lowell to Texas, and rumors tell us that Adrian Beltre, one of the best defensive third-basemen in the game, would be their main target for third base in that case. On top of that, they added the markets best free agent pitcher in John Lackey, which gives them a very dominant looking rotation.

Next Steps: Perhaps signing Adrian Beltre if Lowell is traded, and those never-ending Adrian Gonzalez rumors.

2. New York Yankees

The Yankees have essentially made two substantial moves this off-season, and they’ve both been excellent. They made a massive splash by trading for Curtis Granderson, who will allow the outfield positions to shift and create a huge defensive upgrade over Johnny Damon. On top of that, his lefty-handed bat and power to right field will play perfect in Yankee Stadium, allowing most to think that he’ll have a terrific season in 2010. He’s also got the reputation of being a great guy, and that never hurts. This week, they also added Nick Johnson, who will likely replace DH Hideki Matsui. Johnson is what I like to refer to as an "OBP Monster", and while the 2-spot is unconventional for a DH, his propensity to take walks would look great in front of Mark Texeira and Alex Rodriguez.

Next Steps: It’s hard to imagine any, really. Unless they get crazy and try to add Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, their lineup of all-stars looks complete.

1. Seattle Mariners

At the beginning of the off-season, there were rumblings that the Mariners had a ton of cash to spend, but many dismissed that rumor. I don’t think anyone expected this type of off-season from Seattle. They picked up speedy Chone Figgins to provide great defense and get on-base with Ichiro at the top of the lineup, acquired Cliff Lee to give them baseball’s best one-two pitching punch, and now added Milton Bradley, who will give them a very good bat, so long as his attitude doesn’t get in the way. The man they call "Jack Z" is being essentially universally-praised these days, and with good reason. In less than two years, he’s taken the Mariners from a train-wreck to the clear-cut favorites to win the AL West. With the pitching they have, they may even be able to make a great run through the playoffs.

Next Steps: A power-bat in the middle of the lineup, though Jason Bay doesn’t fit their defense-minded approach. A slugging first-baseman should do the trick.

Poll

Who do you think has won the MLB Off-Season so far?

Mike Cameron May Be More Valuable Than You Think

Randy Booth — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 11:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

7 days ago: Newly-acquired Boston Red Sox outfielder Mike Cameron, left, smiles as he sits next to Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein during a baseball news conference at Fenway Park in Boston, Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2009. Cameron signed a two-year contract with the Red Sox worth a reported $7 million to $8 million a season. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Browse more photos »

It's easy to get caught up in some of Mike Cameron's numbers. For instance, his lifetime .250 batting average. Or, if you don't like the whiffs, his 1,798 career strikeouts (that's nearly one strikeout per game).

But that's only part of what Cameron brings to the table. When we look at the total package, you'll see he's quite valuable -- even moreso than Jason Bay and David Ortiz.

Combined.

OTM's sister site Brew Crew Ball dedicated a post to the farewell of Cameron after he signed with the Red Sox. Cameron's exit didn't cause a huge buzz in Milwaukee, but maybe it should have:

He accumulated WARs of 4.1 and 4.3 in his two seasons with Milwaukee. 8.4 over the past two years puts him just behind Ryan Braun (8.8) and Prince Fielder (9.5) for the team lead over that span of time. Cameron was the Brewers' third most productive player over the past two years, and now he's gone, with little fanfare.

I don't consider myself a fan of the Brewers, but would anyone else expect Cameron to be the Brew Crew's third most productive player the last two seasons? Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder are good players, so I didn't expect Cameron to even be in their league. Wrong.

Cameron's 8.4 WAR (if you're unfamiliar, click here for more information on this stat) ranked third on the Brewers, but it got me thinking. How would that rank against his new Red Sox teammates?

NAME		2008 	2009	TOTAL WAR
Pedroia		6.7	5.2	11.9
Youkilis	5.6	5.6	11.2
Drew		4.2	4.7	8.9
CAMERON		4.1	4.3	8.4
Ellsbury	3.3	1.9	5.1
Lowell		3.2	1.2	4.4
Bay		0.6	3.5	4.1
Ortiz		2.0	0.7	2.7

OK, I may have fibbed the truth a little in the intro. Sure, Cameron had a better two-year WAR than both Ortiz and Bay combined, but that was factoring in Bay's half season with the Red Sox -- not the entire thing. On the year in '08, Bay was good for a 2.9 WAR -- still nothing impressive.

Regarding Ortiz and his WAR numbers, he's at a disadvantage because he doesn't play the field. However, playing the field would most likely hurt his overall numbers (since he isn't that graceful of a defender). Ortiz's 0.7 WAR from last year seems a tad low, even for the aging slugger. The first half of the year really hurt Ortiz.

It's also not the most reliable thing to compare WAR numbers of a player in the National League to the American League. With Cameron aging and the transition to a new club and a new league, it's not exactly accurate to think Cameron would keep up these numbers. He could improve his numbers playing in Fenway, but with an aging ballplayer, the bottom line is you never know what to expect.

With all that aside, the raw numbers are interesting to look at. Cameron just may be a more important asset to the team than some think (and all for around $8 million).

VIDEO: John Lackey Welcomed To Boston

Randy Booth — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 22:14:10 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

7 days ago: Newly-acquired Boston Red Sox pitcher John Lackey, center, is flanked by manager Terry Francona, left, and general manager Theo Epstein during a baseball news conference at Fenway Park in Boston, Wednesday, Dec. 16, 200, Lackey finalized a five-year contract with the Red Sox, a deal worth $80 million to $87.5 million .(AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

Browse more photos »

It was a busy day in Boston. First Mike Cameron before noon and then later a little John Lackey action. Lackey is a officially a Red Sox, something that some of you might love or might hate. I guess we'll judge that come April.

A few details from the press conference and other news regarding Lackey:

His wife, Krista, went to the University of New Hampshire (a rival of mine, in a way, but that's OK) and was a big factor in Lackey coming to Boston.
Lackey's deal is actually front-loaded, which is good if the Red Sox ever run into problems with the big pitcher down the line. Lackey is due $18M the first season and $15.25 every season after that. His signing bonus is worth $3.5M.
Alex Speier of WEEI breaks down why the Sox chose to sign Lackey than trade for Roy Halladay. Halladay would have cost the team prospects and money -- a lot of money, as Halladay is going to get approximately $20M per season for the next three years.
Theo Epstein apparently sent Josh Beckett a text saying the Lackey signing had no effect on Beckett's future with the Sox. This is a good message to give to Josh early.

After watching the video of the press conference -- which can be found below -- I'm quite excited for Lackey to be in Boston. It's for many reasons (that I will break down in a post tomorrow), but one is just the combination of great pitching and a defense that should also be great, depending what happens at third base and first base. With three bonafide No. 1 starting pitchers, and three more good-to-great pitchers, this Red Sox rotation has to be considered the best in baseball going into Opening Day. With that defense behind them, this is going to be a dangerous team.

I think Lackey will be really good with the Sox. It helps, though, that Theo has improved the defense behind him. If that hadn't happened, Lackey's stats would suffer and I don't think we'd get full value out of him. But as it stands now, the combination of this pitching staff and defense could be lethal in the American League.

Here's the Lackey video:

Everybody Welcome Mike Cameron to the Red Sox Family

wolf9309 — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:41:46 -0000

In the first of two press conferences on Yawkey way today, the Red Sox welcomed outfielder Mike Cameron to the family.

With almost childlike excitement, Cameron, at the age of 36 still known for being one of the best defensive Center Fielders in the game, joined Theo Epstein and Terry Francona to discuss his role on the team.

Now I didn't manage to watch the whole press conference, I tuned in about halfway through it, so I'm sure I missed some good bits here, and would love anyone who did catch it to chime in with any other information they thought was useful.

The first and biggest thing that I noticed were that a lot of questions centered around where Cameron was going to play in the field- this has been a question here, with some people thinking he will be in left so that the Sox give Jacoby Ellsbury time to develop in center, and other people thinking it is vital to shore up the defense now, moving Ells to left and keeping Cameron in center.

Theo Epstein seemed somewhat non-commital, saying that he knows that Cameron plays great Center field and would also be capable of his plus defense all throughout the outfield.

Cameron himself was a little less reserved, saying that he certainly could take his skills to the corners and use what he has learned at center there, but also saying that he is looking forward to bringing his center field abilities over to the Red Sox. The other thing he was very unreserved about was he wants to win- he is here to win and he is going to play his hardest.

Personally, I would like to see something like they did with Coco Crisp when he and Ells were both around- keep Ells in left when Cameron is in the lineup, and if he gets a day off, move Ellsbury over to center and have Hermida come into left. This will give Ellsbury some chance to develop his skills as a center fielder- and with Cameron's veteran tutelage, while dramatically improving our defense in 2010.

One other thing worth mentioning was that Theo wouldn't specifically say that they were shutting the door on Bay, however did state that whichever team gets him will be getting a great ballplayer.

Remember, if you're on the internet but not a TV, you can still catch John Lackey's press conference live at www.MLB.com/LIVE. I may have to be off working, but I hopefully will be able to catch it, and if not, I look forward to everyone's thoughts on it.

Poll

Where do you think Cameron should play in 2010?

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

View full size photo »

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

New York Yankees news & notes: Forget that Damon discount

Ed Valentine — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 13:29:33 -0000

It has been clear for weeks now that the New York Yankees want Johnny Damon back, but for no more than two years at around $10 million per season.

Damon made it clear Tuesday he wants more than that -- and he fully intends to allow agent Scott Boras to find a team willing to pony up his asking price.

Damon is still seeking a three-year contract without taking a pay cut - that would put a deal at $39million - believing that his performance last season was good enough for him to continue earning an annual salary of $13 million. And after watching Mike Cameron - who is almost a year older than Damon - ink a two-year pact with the Red Sox, Damon sees no reason for him to settle for less than three.

"Players out there are getting multi-year deals," Damon said. "(Andy) Pettitte got a raise at 37, even though it was only one year. Cameron is 37 (he turns 37 in January) and he got two years. We're not going to know much until we start negotiating with teams, but that should happen soon."

Damon, who doesn't seem to be in any rush to get his situation settled, said that the Yankees have not started negotiating with his agent, Scott Boras.

"I've been too busy with the kids to worry about it," Damon said. "We're just going about our business and our life. I'm not really too concerned about it. We'll find a team elsewhere if the Yankees don't bring me back."

My take: I can't blame Damon for wanting as much as he can get, but the Yankees can't do that. And GM Brian Cashman seems to feel that way, too. Three years from now Damon will be a very expensive broken-down ex-outfielder who can only DH. The Yankees don't need that. If Damon wants to play hardball, the Yankees just need to move on.

If the Yankees need a replacement for Damon -- and Hideki Matsui -- they don't appear inclined to pursue Jason Bay as that guy. I'm OK with that, too. They can use Melky Cabrera in left, let Xavier Nady and Jason Hoffman compete to be the right-hand hitting alternative, and spend their money on adding a little more pitching.

Speaking of Matsui, I came across a couple of excellent articles regarding the former Yankee outfielder/DH.

WFAN's Sweeny Murti penned (typed?) an excellent tribute to Matsui that had more to do with Matsui the man than Matsui the baseball player.

I can’t imagine I’ll ever have the privilege of covering a player like Hideki Matsui again. The word "unique" is thrown around too much, but this was indeed a unique experience, right from Day One.

Matsui’s Yankee legacy will be that he was an extremely professional hitter, a clutch hitter who saved his best for last, 6 RBIs in the World Series clincher to take home the MVP trophy. And his nickname, Godzilla, is wholly ironic, for there is nothing about his personality or work ethic that suggests a fire-breathing monster. He was just a model Yankee from the first day, literally to the last.

It is nearly impossible to demonstrate how impressive it was to see a man move half way around the world and not only become the first successful power hitter from Japan, but do it in New York for the Yankees, in a place where greater players have come and failed. We often say there will never be another Derek Jeter or another Mariano Rivera. He’s not in same Hall of Fame level as those two, but Matsui is much more. He is in an elite class all by himself, simply the most unique athlete I have ever known.

The New York Times looks at how the loss of Matsui will affect the Yankees off the field.

ESPN's Rob Neyer loves Boston's decision to replace Bay with Cameron. And Sabermetricians will love his reasoning.

He certainly isn't as expensive. As for productive ... Well, that depends on how you define "productive."

Over the last two seasons, Cameron produced 8.4 wins above replacement.

Over those same two seasons, Bay produced 6.4 wins above replacement.

The Red Sox are going to pay Cameron roughly half of what someone's going to pay Jason Bay.

We try to make these things so complicated. But they're not, really. The Red Sox have figured out how to simplify everything. And I just can't wait to read all the columns in the Boston newspapers questioning Theo Epstein's intelligence and ownership's commitment to winning ...

MLB Trade Rumors: Red Sox Sign John Lackey and Mike Cameron; Is Deal for Adrian Gonzalez Next?

raygu — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:00:20 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

3 months ago: San Diego Padres' Adrian Gonzalez follows the flight of his single to drive in two runs against the Colorado Rockies in the ninth inning of the Rockies' 11-10 victory in a baseball game in Denver on Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

View full size photo »

The Boston Red Sox also made news on Monday signing starting pitcher John Lackey to a reported 5 year $85 million deal, and signing Mike Cameron to a 2 year $15 million deal. It appears that Red Sox GM Theo Epstein is placing more and more value into defensive metrics illustrated by his signing of Marco Scutaro and Mike Cameron. Epstein appears to have washed his hands of Jason Bay and his big bat/no glove in left field.

Epstein is also close to dealing third baseman Mike Lowell to the Rangers for catcher Max Ramirez. Lowell has been injury prone over the last two years, and Epstein is looking to sign Adrian Beltre to play 3B, or is he?

Now that the Sox have signed John Lackey, they have an extra starting pitcher that new Padres GM Ned Hoyer covets in Clay Bucholz. Could the Sox be entertaining the idea of del Bucholz now that they have signed Lackey? A package of Bucholz, Casey Kelly, Ryan Westmoreland and 1-2 more prospects would surely entice Hoyer who knows the Sox system inside and out. And Gonzalez's bat and glove would be an ideal fit for Epstein's new approach to building a ballclub.

Poll

SB Nation - Mike Cameron

Selective Application Of Statistics

Fantasy Baseball: Same As It Ever Was

As we see more and more teams emphasize improving their defense, will this lead to the elimination of the DH?

The 2009 Off Season's Impact On The Future

Who will most likely be a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2011?

The Top 5 Winners in the MLB Off-Season (so far)

Who do you think has won the MLB Off-Season so far?

Mike Cameron May Be More Valuable Than You Think

VIDEO: John Lackey Welcomed To Boston

Everybody Welcome Mike Cameron to the Red Sox Family

Where do you think Cameron should play in 2010?

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

New York Yankees news & notes: Forget that Damon discount

MLB Trade Rumors: Red Sox Sign John Lackey and Mike Cameron; Is Deal for Adrian Gonzalez Next?

Will Padres GM Ned Hoyer finally cave and deal Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox?