SB Nation - Josh Bard

Washington Nationals: C Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez And Jesus Flores.

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 05:07:06 -0000

More photos » by Tony Gutierrez - AP

The Washington Nationals will introduce new catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez tomorrow afternoon (12/11/09) at Nationals Park. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)

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Yahoo!Sports.com's David Brown did not include the Washington Nationals' free agent signing of veteran catcher Ivan "Pudge" Rodriguez on his list of the best moves of the recently-concluded '09 Winter Meetings entitled, "Indianapolis Jones and the Winter Meetings: The top 10 deals", but they do earn honorable mention under the subheading, "Best of the rest", where Mr. Brown writes that, "It's easy to knock the Nats," for signing the 38-year-old, 14-time All-Star, Gold Glove-winning catcher to a 2-year/$6M dollar deal to act as a mentor/backup to a hopefully-healthy Jesus Flores, because, at least to Mr. Brown, "...it makes little sense."

Everyone got a good laugh, even Jim Bowden himself...

(cont.)...

Everyone got a good laugh, even Jim Bowden himself, out of the new XM MLB host openly questioning the signing by comparing it to the Nationals signing Paul Lo Duca and Dmitri Young, and praising Rodriguez's agent Scott "Maximum" Boras for getting, "...a two-year guaranteed contract for a 38-year old catcher with an on-base percentage of .280," but what I found humorous, in the transcript of the conversation between Bowden and co-host Steve Davis as it appears in D.C. Sports Bog writer Dan Steinberg's article entitled, "Jim Bowden criticizes Pudge Rodriguez deal", is how Mr. Bowden goes on to describe Rodriguez's motivation in accepting the Nationals' offer:

"Six million dollars at the end of your career, that's all it is. You don't sign there if it's not, because [they're] the only team that came to the table with $6 million and two years guaranteed."

You mean, sort of like the way Mr. Bowden lured Adam Dunn to DC? When Adam Dunn, believing he wasn't ready for semi-retirement as a DH in the AL, was expecting 4-years/$56M, found no suitors, and settled for the Nationals' 2-year/$20 million dollar deal, a little over a week after a "baseball source" let the rest of the baseball world know, in SI.com's Jon Heyman's article entitled, "Nationals still waiting on Dunn", that Dunn had an offer on the table that he would consider if there were no better offers...(Anyone? Anyone? Please?)...even though as Mr. Heyman put it, "...the Nationals' offer sat there so long (he) sent a clear message he'd prefer to go somewhere else."

But back to Yahoo!Sports.com's David Brown's opinion that the signing of "Pudge" Rodriguez makes no sense for DC...MLB.com's Bill Ladson cites an anonymous source in an article entitled, "Pudge deal with Nats awaiting physical", who says that the signing of a catcher capable of playing everyday and providing solid defense, if not much offense any more, makes sense with Jesus Flores recovering from a stress fracture in his shoulder, the result of a foul-ball direct-hit and a torn labrum which was discovered when Flores attempted to return to the lineup late in '09 just to hit though he wasn't healthy enough for full-time action. So this time around, according to Mr. Ladson's "source":

"[The Nationals] want to go slow with Flores...By June, Flores and Rodriguez may split time, or [Riggleman] may go with the hot hand. We know this -- Rodriguez is not going to play 100 games."

In 2007, Flores, who had to remain on the 25-man roster since he was a Rule 5 pick, proved to be a little more advanced than expected, playing 79 games as a backup for Brian Schneider, who started 129, and hitting for a .244 AVG with a .310 OBP, .361 SLG and a .671 OPS. In 2008, Washington brought Paul Lo Duca and Johnny Estrada in because they were unsure Flores was ready for the full-time job, but he outplayed both veteran catchers and was the clear-cut starter when he was injured in a collision at the plate with Chase Utley that ended his season in early September. 2009 was a wash for Flores, as he was injured in early May by the foul ball that caused a stress fracture in his right shoulder, which effectively ended his season, before the torn labrum officially ended it after three games in the second week of September.

With Flores on the DL in 2009, the Nationals were left with Josh Bard and Wil Nieves splitting time behind the plate. Bard hit .230 with a .293 OBP, .361 SLG, a .655 OPS, 18 doubles, 6 HR's and 31 RBI's. Defensively, Bard made 5 errors, allowed 3 passed balls and posted a .988 FLD%, while throwing out 27% of the runners who attempted to take bases on his arm. Nieves provided pretty much the same thing he had in the previous season, putting up a .259 AVG, .313 OBP, .299 SLG and a .612 OPS with 6 doubles, 1 HR and 26 RBI's in 72 games, over which he committed 6 errors, allowed 4 passed balls and had a .986 FLD%, with 28% of stolen base attempts turned back...

Rodriguez's projected stats for 2010 according to the Bill James Handbook 2010? (Over 113 G): .266 AVG, .302 OBP, .397 SLG, .699 OPS, 20 doubles, 8 HR's and 40 RBI's, .22 K/BB. Defensively in '09, even in his "declining years", Rodriguez had a .992 FLD%, with 5 errors in 115 games, over which he threw out 22 of 53 runners who attempted to steal, (32%)...The Bill James Handbook has Jesus Flores hitting .265 in 116 games and 431 AB's in '09, with 22 doubles, 13 HR's, 75 RBI's, a .323 OBP, .415 SLG and a .738 OPS. (0.33 BB/K)...and over his career, he's caught 161 games, with a .990 FLD%,10 errors, 13 passed balls allowed, (12 of which were thrown by Daniel Cabrera, just kidding), and a 31% career CS%, having thrown out 38 of 123 runners who have dared...

Clearly the Nationals will be going into 2009 with the best catcher tandem, in Rodriguez and Flores, they've had since moving to Washington ? (Sorry, Schneider!)...And they're much better off than they were last season with Bard and Nieves...as long as Flores can stay healthy...Still don't think it make sense?...WAR? According to Fangraphs.com: Pudge was worth (+0.8) in '09, and the Fangraphs.com Fan Projections have him at (+0.6) in 2010...Jesus Flores in '09 (+1.0)...(+0.7) in '09 for Bard...Nieves in '09 (+0.3)...How's DC GM Mike Rizzo's approval rating after the Winter Meetings?

• Washington Post writer Alexa Steele put up a post at the Nationals Journal Thursday night entitled, "Free agent signing set for Friday", which announced that the Nationals would introduce their new catcher in a press conference Friday afternoon (12/11/09) at 1:00 pm in Nationals Park.

Poll

What Is DC GM Mike Rizzo's Post-Winter-Meeting Approval Rating?

Lessons In Motivation From Washington Nationals' Manager Jim Riggleman And Bench Coach John McLaren.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 03:17:40 -0000

More photos » by Haraz N. Ghanbari - AP

Washington Nationals' Manager Jim Riggleman will be starting his first full season as the DC Skipper this Spring with former boss John McLaren as his bench coach. (AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari)

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As another 100+ loss season came to a close in September '09, Jim Riggleman, on two occasions, attempted to motivate the Washington Nationals through the press, as he had once earlier last season behind closed doors. Washington Post writer Chico Harlan in an 9.3.09 article entitled, "Nats Slip Against Padres, Fall For Sixth Straight", quoted Mr. Riggleman expressing his belief that the team, which had just dropped seven of nine, including six in a row on a west coast road trip, needed to motivate itself:

"'We did this once earlier. I think our guys said, 'Enough is enough.' And I think we've got to do that now. At some point you just have to say, 'We're not going to get beat.' You have to will yourself to a win and not accept it. I know sometimes we think of down the road. We've got a lot of good parts for the future and all that, but when you're playing tonight, people pay to get into that ballgame, never mind next year. You've got to win that ballgame tonight.'"

The Nationals responded by going 5-10 in the next 15 games...

The Nationals responded by going 5-10 in the next 15 games...and after what Mr. Riggleman described to MLB.com's Bill Ladson in an article entitled, "Riggleman not satified after Nats' loss", as a "lackluster performance" in the fifteenth game of that stretch, a 6-2 9.20.09 loss to the NY Mets, the Nationals' manager again challenged his players, questioning the effort they had given on the field that day:

"'We were flat, and it's just not acceptable. We were down a run and it was almost like, 'Let's see what we can do here to get through it.' I just wasn't pleased with the overall intensity of the game.""

DC slugger Adam Dunn, who struggled mightily in September, hitting just .212 with 3 doubles, 3 HR's and 14 RBI's in his last 99 at bats, might have taken what Jim Riggleman said personally, but instead, in one of the many signs of the leadership role the first-year National assumed in 2009, Dunn defended his own effort along with that of his teammates, telling Washington Post writer Chico Harlan, as quoted in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "Riggleman Says Nats Were Flat In 6-2 Loss", that he didn't necessarily agree with the DC Skipper's assessment:

"I was in the game; I'm not going to sit here and say I was flat because I don't think I was and I can only speak for myself. As far as the team -- I don't think we came out... I'm gonna say no, I don't think we were flat. I don't. I just think that we ran into some guys that pitched pretty good, we weren't swinging the bats really well, and I think that's the problem...

"...We've playing one-hundred-and-X amount of games. Why would we decide on Sunday whatever-the-day-is to not play hard? That's bulls---. That's one thing we do. Winning or losing, we do play hard."

The Nationals would respond by losing five of the next six games before going on a season-ending, seven-game-win-streak, their second-longest of the season. The longest streak came earlier in the '09 campaign, back in July. The Nationals, who'd lost 7 of 9 after Mr. Riggleman replaced Manny Acta, were coming off a 6-2 loss to the San Diego Padres in which they'd committed 4 errors, when MLB.com's Bill Ladson wrote, in an article entitled, "Pair of homers not enough for the Nationals", that Mr. Riggleman, "...was not happy after the game," and was once again, "...frustrated with his players' effort."

This time, however, the manager kept the conversation between himself and his players. MLB.com's Mr. Ladson held this first intervention by the new Nationals' manager as the prime example of "What Went Right" in 2009 in an season-ending article entitled, "Late burst doesn't benefit Nationals" where Mr. Ladson writes that:

"Unlike past years in Nationals history, Riggleman is one skipper who held players accountable for mistakes they made on the field. Case in point: on July 24, Riggleman was not happy after a 6-2 loss to the Padres, frustrated with his players' effort. It didn't help that Washington made four errors and committed a passed ball in the outcome. He reamed them out, and the Nats went on to win 12 out of their next 14 games."

When Mr. Riggleman addressed his conversation with the players, back in Mr. Ladson's article entitled, "Pair of homers not enough for the Nationals", the manager told the MLB.com's writer that he couldn't go into detail about what he'd said to the team:

"'Children listen to [the postgame show], so I can't tell you what I said to them,' Riggleman said. 'It was just a bad effort. You hate to even try to look for the silver lining. It was particularly bad early. We just weren't ready, and that's on me. I can't accept that. ... I had a lot to say to them, but that's beside the point.'"

The Nationals certainly got the message behind Mr. Riggleman's reaming, as DC backstop Josh Bard told reporters, including Mr. Ladson, who quoted the catcher stating:

The fans don't deserve to see us play sloppy like that...We played one of our worst games. ... We have to get better...You have to play the game the right way and control what you can control. It's not a quick fix.'"

Just as important as the Nationals getting Riggleman's point, was the fact that Mr. Riggleman, himself, had clearly learned a lesson from his last managing gig. If Riggleman's reaming of the Nationals was anything like that which former Seattle Mariners' manager John McLaren, (who'd employed Riggleman as his bench coach), shared with the Seattle media just a year earlier, two weeks before he was replaced by Riggleman, it's probably a good thing he decided to spare the children who might have been listening the shock, but at least it's good to know that if Mr. Riggleman needs someone on his coaching staff to let the players have it this season, he'll know where to turn...

(ed. note - "What follows is a link to June 5, 2008 press conference Mr. McLaren conducted two weeks before he was relieved of his duties as the Mariners' manager and replaced by Mr. Riggleman...It is definitely rated NC-17 and NSFW, so I've included a humorously edited transcript, but feel free to enjoy the pure anger and frustration one more time as you get a look at the sort of fire Mr. McLaren will be bringing to the Nationals' bench in twenty-ten:

• LINK - YouTube - "McLaren loses it."

• Transcript:

"McLaren: "We're playing our [expletive deleted] off every day, and got nothing to show for it. I'm tired of [expletive deleted] losing, and i'm tired of getting my [expletive deleted] beat and so are those guys. We're going to change this [expletive delete] [expletive deleted] around and get after it, and only we can do it. The fans are [expletive deleted] off, and I'm [expletive deleted] off and the players are [expletive deleted] off, and that's the way it is. There's no [expletive deleted] easy way out of this, can't feel sorry for ourselves, gotta [expletive deleted] buckle it up and get after it. Tired of [expletive deleted] losing this [expletive deleted] game every night, and we bust our [expletive deleted], it's gotta be a total team [expletive deleted] effort to turn this thing around and that's it...")

Washington Nationals Buy Out Austin Kearns...5 Others Become Free Agents.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 06:42:46 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

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In early 2007, when then-DC GM Jim Bowden signed right fielder Austin Kearns to a 3-year/$17.5 million dollar deal with a $10 million dollar club option for a fourth year or a $1 million dollar buyout, Kearns told Washington Post writer Barry Svrluga, as quoted in an 2/2/07 article entitled, "Kearns to Have an Extended Stay With Nats", that he decided to sign an extension to stay in the nation's capital because he liked the direction the team was headed:

"'I got to see how close this is to getting it to where they want it to go,' Kearns said at an afternoon news conference at the downtown offices of the Lerner family, which owns the Nationals. 'I really do think it's closer than what people expect because I think there's a lot of pieces of the puzzle that are already here on the field, and pieces that are here off the field. It excited me.'"

(cont.)...

In explaining the signing, Mr. Bowden, who had been the General Manager in Cincinnati when the Reds made Kearns their 1st Round pick in 1998, told MLB.com's Washington Nationals writer Bill Ladson, in an article entitled, "Nationals, Kearns agree on extension", that Austin Kearns was, "...a complete player. He is like...Ryan Zimmerman,":

"...Austin can play the game from both sides. He is really special. He is just 26 years old. His best years are ahead of him. Philosophically as a general manager, I always like buying free-agent years. I don't like a player going on the market or going on the last year of his contract. I like assets if you can get them at the right numbers and the right deal."

Kearns, who'd been acquired by Washington in a deal with Cincinnati the previous July that also brought SS Felipe Lopez and RHP Ryan Wagner to DC in exchange for pitchers Bill Bray, Gary Majewski and Daryl Thompson and infielders Royce Clayton and Brendan Harris, had hit .264 with a .363 OBP, 33 doubles, 24 HR's and 86 RBI's the previous season in 87 games with the Reds and 63 with the Nationals, and was coming off a 1-year/$1.85M dollar deal with Cincinnati when he agreed to the extension with the Nationals whose team President Stan Kasten labeled the outfielder "a long-term building block", in Mr. Ladson's article while then-manager Manny Acta called the move, "...a step in the right direction."

Three years, 51 doubles, 26 HR's and 123 RBI's later, the Nationals have excercised that club option for a $1 million dollar buyout of the oft-injured outfielder, who played all but one game in 2007 hitting .266 with 35 of the doubles, 16 of the HR's and 74 of the total RBI's he'd collect in his time with Washington, before appearing in just 166 games total in the final two years of his deal, missing time with elbow, foot and, this year, thumb problems/issues/injuries which severely decreased his offensive contributions and ultimately made the 29-year-old outfielder expendable.

MLB.com's Bill Ladson announced the Nationals' decision to cut ties with Kearns this afternoon in an article entitled, "Trio of Nats complete free agent group", where Mr. Ladson also reported that Ron Villone, Dmitri Young, Josh Bard and Livan Hernandez would become free agents, finally removing from the payroll two of the more burdensome contracts (Kearns' and Young's) that the Former DC GM signed players to during his tenure.

Back in September, Washington Post writer Tom Boswell estimated, in a Q&A with readers entitled, "Ask Boswell: Nats, Orioles, Redskins and More", that all the contracts coming off the Nationals' books this winter would total around $31.5 million dollars, and "With (the) Strasburg, Zim and Dunn deals added back in for '10," Mr. Boswell wrote, "...their payroll obligations for next year (would) stand at an incredibly low $40 million or slightly more," leaving the Nationals with at least $20 million to spend on free agents if they were to return to 2009's total payroll, or close to $40 million dollars if they were to increase the payroll to the league-average $80 million dollars.

?'s For The DC Faithful...The bullpen, the infield, the rotation...the new manager? Where will the Nationals start? What will the Nationals' 2010 payroll be? $40, $60, $80M? Are any of these free agents coming back? Not even Villone?

The Bill James Handbook 2010 - Projections For The Washington Nationals' 2010 Infield.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 03:03:13 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

8 months ago: Washington Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman, is congratulated at home plate by left fielder Adam Dunn (44) and shortstop Cristian Guzman (15) after his two-run home run against the Atlanta Braves during the third inning of a baseball game on Saturday, April 11, 2009, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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Can Adam Dunn get back up to the 40 HR plateau? Will Ryan Zimmerman hit more than last-year's career high 33 HR's? If Cristian Guzman's going to be at short or second, what can DC fans expect from the soon-to-be 32-year-old infielder? With the help of the Hitter Projections contained in the soon-to-be-published twenty-ten edition of The Bill James Handbook 2010, I thought it might be interesting to take a look at what Nationals fans can expect from the Nationals' infield, which, barring the acquisition of another infielder, will most likely be composed of Ryan Zimmerman at third, Ian Desmond at short, Cristian Guzman at second and Adam Dunn at first base, though some argue that Desmond's not ready to play everday. (ed. note - "Bill James has Desmond playing in 145 games...Thanks to Mr. James and the book's publisher, Acta Sports, for making a preview of the Pitcher and Hitter Projections available.")

DC Infield Hitter Projections...After The Jump...

(ed. note - "Check out the Projections for the Nationals' 2010 Outfield HERE.")

The Bill James Handbook 2010 Hitter Projections For The Washington Nationals' Infield:

Ryan Zimmerman - 3B:

Zimmerman, Ryan	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	145	576	167	42	22	87	.290	.351	.484
'09 Stats	157	610	178	37	33	106	.292	.364	.525
2010 Projections	149	593	171	42	28	98	.286	.358	.511

Ian Desmond - SS:

Desmond, Ian	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
'09 Stats	21	82	23	7	4	12	.280	.318	.561
2010 Projections	145	518	146	33	13	52	.282	.336	.432

Cristian Guzman - 2B:

Guzman, Cristian	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	137	496	145	26	7	45	.292	.329	.407
'09 Stats	135	531	151	24	6	52	.284	.306	.390
2010 Projections	136	550	155	26	7	49	.282	.313	.365

Adam Dunn - 1B:

Dunn, Adam	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	159	562	137	30	42	103	.246	.386	.527
'09 Stats	159	546	146	29	38	105	.267	.398	.529
2010 Projections	159	562	141	30	40	103	.251	.389	.518

Jesus Flores - C:

Flores, Jesus	G	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG
'09 Projections	135	436	109	26	12	81	.250	.304	.397
'09 Stats	29	93	28	3	4	15	.301	.371	.505
2010 Projections	116	431	114	22	13	75	.265	.323	.415

• Notes on the #'s, ?'s Raised:

-- MLB.com's Bill Ladson wrote recently, in an article entitled, "Nats Inbox: What's in store for Storen", that, "...there is a question about [Ian Desmond's] defense. He made over 30 errors this past season," (34 total between Harrisburg, Syracuse and DC, I checked) and as a result, "...some members of the organization have some doubts," about whether Desmond is ready for an everyday role in the majors. If, as Mr. James predicts, Desmond's able to hit 33 doubles and 13 HR's with a .282 AVG, can the errors be overlooked? Or do the Nationals need to bring in a veteran infielder?

-- Aside from effect Adam Dunn had on the offense with his own contributions, can we agree that he clearly had an effect on the pitches Ryan Zimmerman saw this season? To what else would you attribute Zimmerman's increased offensive output? Is it just Zimmerman maturing and improving at the plate? When did you realize Dunn wouldn't hit 40 HR's? Will he get back there next year?

-- Are you ready for another 115-130 singles by Cristian Guzman? I know a lot of people are tired of his empty average and slow feet, but is there any way to move his $8M dollar contract?

-- 116 games for Jesus Flores? Let's hope so...Who'll be backing Flores up in 2010?

- Bill James' Projections:

• Wil Nieves:

- '09 Stats - 72 G, 58 for 224, .259 AVG, 6 2B, 1 HR, 26 RBI's, .313 OBP, .299 SLG.

- 2010 Projections - 74 G, 47 for 187, .251 AVG, 8 2B, 2 HR, 17 RBI's, .293 OBP, .337 SLG.

• Josh Bard:

- '09 Stats - 90 G, 63 for 274, .230 AVG, 18 2B, 6 HR's, 31 RBI's, .293 OBP, .361 SLG.

- 2010 Projections - 84 G, 56 for 232, .241 AVG, 15 2B, 4 HR's, 27 RBI's, .313 OBP, .358 SLG.

-- With Flores back in the lineup, (batting sixth?), behind, Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham and Elijah Dukes, three to six, Nyjer Morgan and Cristian Guzman one and two, and either Ian Desmond, (Guzman?) or another infielder in the eight spot, do the Nationals stand a chance in the NL East in 2010?

2009 Catcher Defense: Filling in the Holes (yet again)

devil_fingers — Tue, 13 Oct 2009 16:17:43 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

That Minnesota pretty boy might be in the playoffs, but he's go nuthin on One Man, Five Tools.

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Even if you aren't a FanGraphs junkie like myself and so many others, if you spend any time there looking at the WAR rankings in order to, say, evaluate who should be the 2009 MVP candidates, you've undoubtedly noticed (due to Joe Mauer's incredible season) that currently, they do not have a system in place to evaluate catcher fielding. Hey, no one's perfect, and knowing Mr. Appleman and his crew, they're probably waiting until they get a system they're happy with before they implement something.

I don't make any great claim to originality here, as you will see if you read on, but for those of you who want a rough idea of how different catchers "measure up" behind the plate for your MVP arguments or to settle the eternal "I wonder just how bad a guy can be at blocking pitches," question, here is a rough attempt to evaluate every catcher's defensive 2009.

Choosing a Methodology (With Qualifications)

Before I go any further, I should make clear that for the purposes of this post that I assume that it is well-established that the differences between catchers with regard to gamecalling (as expressed in, e.g., "catcher's ERA") are negligible, and thus such issues will not be discussed in this post. When I discuss catcher defense, like most others, I will be discussing preventing stolen bases, blocking pitches, etc.

One of the difficulties with evaluating catcher defense with regard to even these issues is that, much more than with other fielding positions, the catcher's performance is dependent on another player -- namely, the pitcher. No matter now strong or weak the catcher's arm is, he can't escape the reality that he depends on the pitcher's skill with regard to holding runners, quickness to the plate, etc. While the catcher's skill with regard to blocking pitches that are off the mark is clearly important, catching Tim Wakefield poses a unique challenge (just ask Josh Bard). And so on.

For these reasons, probably the best way of measuring catcher defense is Tom Tango's WOWY (With or Without You) method of defensive evaluation as detailed the 2008 Hardball Times Annual. You can read about the details in the links provided. Versions of WOWY for catchers have also been done by Brian Cartwright and Dan Turkenkopf. I would do it that way if I could. The main issue is that 1) it's pretty complicated, and beyond my present capabilities, and 2) it requires something like Retrosheet, which isn't available until after the World Series is over, so even if I could do it, I couldn't get the numbers during the season of even now...

In lieu of that, I'm going to be doing something much simpler, which, while not quite as good, is, I think, pretty decent. Just keep in mind the qualifications about not adjusting for particular pitchers made above.

The Method Used Here

For non-WOWY catcher defense, the basic idea is to 1) choose what events you're going to deal with, 2) determine each catchers performance with respect to league average, and 3) decide the run value of each event. Like I said, this post isn't that original: very similar methods are used/suggested by Rally and chuckb. I have most closely modeled my "catcher defense metric" on the method outlined by the Amazing Justin Inaz (now a regular at Beyond the Box Score). His weights for each event seem about right to me, and the general principles are sound. One modification I've made (I'll note the other as I go along) is in the denominator of some stats. when Justin did his version, he was using THT's catcher defense stats, which only recorded catcher innings. Since then, the new Baseball Reference has come out with more detailed individual catcher defense stats, including plate appearances. While the difference isn't huge, I feel that it's more accurate to use plate appearances (batters faced) as the denominator for things like pitch blocking and errors, since while every inning (other than some ninth [or later] innings) has 3 outs, the catcher has to be out there whether there are 3 or 10 batters during those three outs. Otherwise, I'm pretty close to Justin's method, and you can read there for more details.

Stolen Bases/Caught Stealing: First, we figure out the league rate for caught stealing. One cool thing about the new Baseball Reference is that it separates out the catcher caught stealings from the pitcher pickoffs, so we can exclude the pickoffs (not under the catcher's control) from the equation. So we total the CSctch +SB to get total stolen base attempts (SBA) and then to total CSctch/total SBA for the lgCS rate. We use the weight of .63 runs for each caught stealing, which represents the average linear weight of the caught stealing (.44 runs) plus the weight of the stolen base not achieved (.19 runs). The formula for runs above/below average for each catcher is thus (CS - (lgCSrate) * SBA) * 0.63.

Wild pitches/passed balls: The league rate is (WPlg + PBlg)/lgPA. The linear weight for each passed ball/wild pitch is 0.28 runs, which we make negative since the more WP/PBs a catcher has, the worse his defense is. The formula for each player is ((WP + PB) - (lgWPPBrate * PA)) * -0.28.

Errors: Justin accounts for two kinds of errors -- throwing errors and fielding errors. Baseball Reference also includes catching errors (on throws). I've assimilated catching errors to fielding errors. There are separate linear weights for throwing errors (-0.48) and fielding errors (-0.75). The method is the same as above. Get the league rate, then see how far over/under the player is. For throwing errors: (TE - (lgTErate * PA)) * -0.48. Fielding errors: (FE - (lgFErate * PA)) * -0.75.

Then you just add them all up to get the total runs above/below average. It's not perfect, and hopefully, there will be some improved options soon, but the results do seem to reflect reality. I thought about coming up with a "rate" version like UZR/150, but that isn't as simple as prorating for innings caught/PA -- one needs to normalize each sort of event separately, the chart is confusing enough as it is. For now, this is just a value measurement of what each player did this season. But before the big chart, let's take a look at some standout performances. I've rounded to one decimal place to tone down the illusion of great precision.

Standouts and "Standouts"

Caught Stealing: Gerald Laird of the Tigers dominates here at + 11 runs. The next closest player was Johjima at +6.5 runs, then Koyie Hill at +5.4. Now, Laird had a lot more time behind the plate to accomplish that, but one wonders why teams kept trying to run on him. At the bottom of the rankings for CS runs are fan favorite A.J. Pierzynski at -4.5 runs, Yorvit Torrealbea at -5.1 runs, and blowing away the field is defensive legend and Boston Red Sox stalwart Jason Varitek, at -10.7 runs.

Pitch blocking: As for the actual "catching" part of catching, the best in baseball this season was the Phillies' Carlos Ruiz, at +5.6 runs. Jason Varitek gains some of his cred back here at +5.1 runs (I wonder what it would be if he had to catch Wakefield). The Man, the Myth, the Legend, Matt Wieters may not have quite cemented his Hall of Fame credentials, but he can block a pitch decently at +3.9 runs. The players are grouped by their performance for separate teams, so I just noticed that one of my favorites, Gregg Zaun, was +2.9 for the Orioles, and +1.4 for the Rays, which puts him at +4.3, or the real number 3. Maybe Baltimore let him go to soon -- he definite brings his Z-Game when he's blocking pitches. At the bottom of the rankings, Jorge Posada, Josh Bard, and and Rob Johnson (why did he get so much playing time?) are all tied at -3.8, Russell Martin (?!) is at -5.1 (although he saw more PA than just about any other catcher on the list). And bringing up the rear... this is going to be a shock, prepare yourself... Miguel Olivo, at -7.8. Think about that -- it's only -0.28 runs per WP/PB. Sure, he's "only" -2.7 runs worse thatn Martin, but Martin saw almost 1400 more PA than Olivo this season. This shows we're on the right track, as Brian Cartwright's WOWY study done previous to this season showed Olivo to be historically terrible at blocking the plate. Another great job of scouting by Dayton Moore and the Process Servers.

Throwing errors: Given that there's so little variance with this stat, there's probably less of a repeatable "skill" when it comes to this stuff. In other words, if we were doing a projection, there would be much more regression for TE and FE runs than others. Still, we're measuring value here, so it goes on the record. Gerald Laird leads the pack again at +1.5 runs, followed closely by Yorvit Torrealbea at +1.3 the Kurt Suzuki and Henry Blanco at +1.2 each. At the bottom, we have Rod Barajas (otherwise a good defensive catcher) at -1.6, Miguel Montero at -1.7, and sadly, my boy John Buck at -3.0. He had some really, really horrible games at the beginning of the season. At least he can move two inches to his right or left.

Fielding errors: Jason Kendall justifies his major league status with a +1.0 here, as does Russell Martin. Rod Barajas shows he's Joe Mauer's equal, as they both have +0.8. Mike Napoli is -1.6, the traitorous Paul Bako is at -2.0, and Brian McCann, who's decent at everything else, has an anomalous -3.6.

The Best and The Worst, and Others of Note: One Man, Five Tools, Indeed: Gerald Laird blows away the field at +13.3 runs. The Tigers made a conscious effort to improve their defense in the offseason, and whatever else happened, with Laird they certainly succeeded. At 0.9 WAR player without defense, with it he's about 2.2. Kenji Johjima might be overpaid, but at +8.8 runs defensively, he seems a bit less ridiculous. Dave Ross and Ryan Hanigan come in at +7.0 runs. Yadier Molina was very good, if not quite as godlike as some would think, but +6.6 runs is nothing to sneeze at, and makes him about a 4 WAR player this season. Joe Mauer's +4.3 is good, but he's not the best in baseball or the league, and that certainly doesn't make him a better MVP candidate than Zack Greinke. Matt Wieters is +2.5, so he'll probably stick at catcher, at least for a while.

Victor Martinez isn't as bad as some would say, being only -2.2 betweeen Boston and Cleveland. Jeff Mathis is a "great" defensive backup at -2.0. Or how about Jose Molina at -1.1 backing up Jorge Posada at -5.9? Giants cleanup hitter Bengie Molina is at -3.4

As for the bottom ranks... Josh Bard is at -7.3, the human swing machine, Miguel Olivo, is at -8.8, and the Living Stereotype, Mike Napoli, is at -9.7. No wonder the Angels think Mathis is a good defender.

The Big Chart

That's it. Keep in mind (along with the limitations mentioned above) that current season performance is not the same thing as true talent. I hope you will find this handy when trying to get various catchers' "real" WAR, and let others know about it. Let the arguments begin!

Rank	Player	Tm	PA	CSRuns	WP/PBRns	TERns	FERns	TotalRuns
1	Gerald Laird	DET	4842	11.0	0.6	1.5	0.2	13.3
2	Kenji Johjima	SEA	2597	6.5	0.9	0.9	0.5	8.8
3	Dave Ross	ATL	1517	4.8	1.6	0.3	0.3	7.0
4	Ryan Hanigan	CIN	2913	4.7	0.7	1.0	0.5	7.0
5	Yadier Molina	STL	5045	3.2	2.6	0.7	0.2	6.6
6	Koyie Hill	CHC	2755	5.4	0.2	0.0	0.5	6.1
7	Henry Blanco	SDP	2278	2.9	1.2	1.2	0.4	5.7
8	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	3887	-1.5	5.6	0.6	0.7	5.4
9	Raul Chavez	TOR	1818	3.6	0.5	0.0	0.3	4.4
10	Joe Mauer	MIN	4153	0.5	2.4	0.7	0.8	4.3
11	Rod Barajas	TOR	4298	2.6	2.5	-1.6	0.8	4.2
12	Brian Schneider	NYM	1976	1.6	1.2	1.0	-0.4	3.5
13	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	2069	0.6	1.7	0.6	0.4	3.3
14	Francisco Cervelli	NYY	1024	2.0	0.8	0.0	0.2	3.1
15	Lou Marson	CLE	572	1.6	1.0	-0.2	0.1	2.5
16	Eliezer Alfonzo	SDP	1128	2.2	0.3	0.6	-0.5	2.5
17	Matt Wieters	BAL	3384	-1.1	3.9	-0.2	-0.1	2.5
18	Ronny Paulino	FLA	2609	2.1	-0.4	0.4	0.5	2.5
19	Landon Powell	OAK	1205	2.8	0.5	-0.3	-0.5	2.4
20	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	2180	3.1	0.9	-1.3	-0.3	2.4
21	Omir Santos	NYM	3092	-0.7	2.8	1.1	-0.9	2.4
22	Ivan Rodriguez	HOU	3327	1.4	0.4	-0.2	0.6	2.2
23	Chris Iannetta	COL	3362	0.1	1.9	-0.7	0.6	2.0
24	Gregg Zaun	BAL	1974	0.2	2.9	-0.9	-0.4	1.8
25	Humberto Quintero	HOU	1893	2.4	0.4	-1.4	0.4	1.7
26	Corky Miller	CIN	702	0.4	0.8	0.4	0.1	1.7
27	Ramon Castro	NYM	822	1.8	0.6	0.4	-1.3	1.4
28	Mike Rivera	MIL	1227	-0.2	0.5	0.6	0.2	1.3
29	Lou Marson	PHI	245	0.7	0.4	0.1	0.0	1.2
30	Jason LaRue	STL	1139	0.0	0.9	0.1	0.2	1.2
31	Craig Tatum	CIN	749	0.5	0.6	-0.1	0.1	1.1
32	Chris Coste	PHI	925	-1.0	1.4	0.5	0.2	1.0
33	Dusty Ryan	DET	337	0.4	0.4	0.2	0.1	1.0
34	Kurt Suzuki	OAK	5222	-3.4	3.6	1.2	-0.5	0.9
35	Michel Hernandez	TBR	1140	0.1	1.1	0.1	-0.5	0.8
36	Geovany Soto	CHC	3607	2.2	-1.1	0.4	-0.8	0.7
37	Clint Sammons	ATL	135	1.0	-0.5	0.1	0.0	0.6
38	Jamie Burke	WSN	155	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.6
39	Brad Ausmus	LAD	1086	-0.1	-0.1	0.6	0.2	0.6
40	Ivan Rodriguez	TEX	961	1.4	0.1	-0.5	-0.6	0.5
41	Matt Pagnozzi	STL	40	0.3	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.5
42	Chris Gimenez	CLE	245	-0.1	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.5
43	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	113	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.4
44	Buster Posey	SFG	179	0.3	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
45	Dioner Navarro	TBR	4097	0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.0	0.4
46	J.R. Towles	HOU	538	-1.0	0.9	0.3	0.1	0.3
47	Wyatt Toregas	CLE	710	-0.5	0.3	0.4	0.1	0.3
48	Alex Avila	DET	709	0.4	-0.6	0.4	0.1	0.3
49	Steve Holm	SFG	101	0.5	-0.3	0.1	0.0	0.3
50	Edwin Bellorin	COL	69	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.2
51	Dusty Brown	BOS	49	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.2
52	Jose Lobaton	SDP	205	0.2	0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.1
53	Jason Jaramillo	PIT	2347	0.2	0.2	-0.7	0.4	0.1
54	Jake Fox	CHC	30	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
55	Carlos Corporan	MIL	6	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
56	Ryan Budde	LAA	38	-0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
57	A.J. Ellis	LAD	119	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
58	Guillermo Rodriguez	BAL	72	0.0	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
59	Bobby Wilson	LAA	98	-0.1	0.0	0.1	0.0	-0.1
60	David Freese	STL	10	-0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	-0.1
61	Kevin Cash	NYY	297	-0.3	0.0	0.2	0.1	-0.1
62	Chris Coste	HOU	628	-1.2	0.6	0.3	0.1	-0.2
63	Adam Moore	SEA	241	-0.1	-0.2	0.1	0.0	-0.2
64	Corky Miller	CHW	383	-0.7	0.2	0.2	0.1	-0.2
65	Gregg Zaun	TBR	928	-1.5	1.4	0.5	-0.6	-0.2
66	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	3169	-0.5	1.6	-1.3	-0.2	-0.3
67	Wil Nieves	WSN	2538	1.4	-0.4	-1.1	-0.3	-0.3
68	John Hester	ARI	255	-0.4	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.3
69	Paul Hoover	PHI	55	-0.3	-0.1	0.0	0.0	-0.4
70	Guillermo Quiroz	SEA	161	-0.1	-0.4	0.1	0.0	-0.4
71	Dane Sardinha	DET	404	-0.5	-0.3	0.2	0.1	-0.5
72	Shawn Riggans	TBR	156	-0.3	0.1	-0.4	0.0	-0.5
73	Matt Treanor	DET	157	-0.6	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.6
74	Kevin Richardson	TEX	70	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	0.0	-0.6
75	Victor Martinez	CLE	1991	-2.7	0.7	1.0	0.4	-0.6
76	Josh Thole	NYM	551	-0.1	-0.5	-0.2	0.1	-0.6
77	Tyler Flowers	CHW	123	-0.3	-0.5	0.1	0.0	-0.7
78	Michael Barrett	TOR	174	-0.3	-0.6	0.1	0.0	-0.8
79	Luke Carlin	ARI	176	-0.9	-0.1	0.1	0.0	-0.8
80	Kyle Phillips	TOR	186	-0.2	-0.3	-0.4	0.0	-0.9
81	Jesus Flores	WSN	980	0.4	-1.2	0.5	-0.6	-0.9
82	Jose Molina	NYY	1533	-0.9	-0.9	0.3	0.3	-1.1
83	Jamie Burke	SEA	424	0.7	-0.8	0.2	-1.4	-1.3
84	Kelly Shoppach	CLE	3042	-0.7	-0.9	-0.4	0.6	-1.5
85	Victor Martinez	BOS	1173	-1.5	1.0	-1.3	0.2	-1.6
86	Ramon Castro	CHW	975	-1.8	1.0	-0.9	0.2	-1.6
87	Rob Johnson	SEA	2927	2.4	-3.8	0.5	-1.0	-1.8
88	Ryan Doumit	PIT	2754	-1.0	0.5	-0.5	-1.0	-2.0
89	Chad Moeller	BAL	1116	-3.1	0.2	0.6	0.2	-2.1
90	Jeff Mathis	LAA	2902	0.8	-1.0	-0.9	-1.0	-2.1
91	Paul Phillips	COL	502	-1.8	-0.3	-0.2	0.1	-2.3
92	Mike Redmond	MIN	1513	-4.1	0.5	0.8	0.3	-2.5
93	Robinzon Diaz	PIT	1268	-1.0	-1.6	-0.3	0.2	-2.6
94	Yorvit Torrealba	COL	2438	-5.1	0.5	1.3	0.5	-2.9
95	Brayan Pena	KCR	1012	-0.5	-3.1	0.5	0.2	-2.9
96	Brian McCann	ATL	4763	-0.7	1.8	-0.4	-3.6	-3.0
97	Chris Snyder	ARI	1962	-1.3	-3.0	1.0	0.4	-3.0
98	Eli Whiteside	SFG	1348	1.0	-2.2	-0.7	-1.2	-3.2
99	John Baker	FLA	3919	-2.6	-0.5	-0.9	0.7	-3.2
100	Paul Bako	PHI	1328	-0.7	-0.3	-0.3	-2.0	-3.3
101	Russell Martin	LAD	5205	1.5	-5.1	-0.7	1.0	-3.3
102	Bengie Molina	SFG	4582	-1.0	-2.6	0.9	-0.6	-3.4
103	Jason Varitek	BOS	4133	-10.7	5.1	0.7	0.8	-4.1
104	George Kottaras	BOS	1166	-1.8	-3.0	0.1	0.2	-4.4
105	Jason Kendall	MIL	5296	-2.9	-1.5	-1.1	1.0	-4.5
106	John Buck	KCR	1693	-2.0	-0.1	-3.0	0.3	-4.8
107	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	4927	-4.5	-0.8	1.1	-0.6	-4.8
108	Jose Morales	MIN	812	-2.1	-1.7	-0.1	-1.3	-5.2
109	Jorge Posada	NYY	3653	-0.8	-3.8	-0.5	-0.8	-5.9
110	Miguel Montero	ARI	4094	-1.4	-3.4	-1.7	0.0	-6.5
111	Nick Hundley	SDP	2877	-3.7	-2.0	-0.9	-0.2	-6.8
112	Josh Bard	WSN	2902	-2.8	-3.8	-0.4	-0.2	-7.3
113	Miguel Olivo	KCR	3821	0.7	-7.8	-0.9	-0.8	-8.8
114	Mike Napoli	LAA	3468	-4.3	-3.1	-0.6	-1.6	-9.7

Fire Everyone! - Mark Shapiro

Jay — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 05:53:11 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

Is just developing a good process enough?

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This is the final installment in a 12-part series.

"A Hit Is A Hit" — The Sopranos, season one.

Christopher has been bankrolling a band called "Visiting Day", who are managed by his girlfriend Adriana. He plays the band's demo to his associate Hesh, an old-timer in the music business.

CHRISTOPHER: So?

HESH: I think it's ... not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Wanna be a little more specific?

HESH: There's good. And there's not good. This is not good.

CHRISTOPHER: Okay, maybe it's not your era — no offense, but ...

HESH: Kid, music is music, talent is talent. I don't care who you are. I seen it all. I seen heavy metal invented by Hendrix at the Bottom Line, he just got out of the army. I told him, "Kid, I don't know what you call it — talent, charisma, magic — whatever it is, you got it." These guys ... [gestures to the cassette] ... I'm sorry, they don't.

CHRISTOPHER: That Vito is a great guitar player, Hesh.

HESH: Good, fine, he's a great guitar player. However, there's one constant in the music business: A hit is a hit. And this, my friend, is not a hit.

CHRISTOPHER: But why?

HESH: Christ. Reasons we can never comprehend or codify, you pitiful schlepper.

Of all the installments in this series, this is the one where it's most tempting to beg off and admit, this might just above my pay grade. I'll be honest, I can't say with much confidence whether Mark Shapiro should be fired. What I can say is that there are definitely good reasons to fire him.

Before we get to that, better face up to some hard facts. If you're going to fire Shapiro, you have to believe that a better option is available. Chris Antonetti is the heir apparent, but you fire Shapiro and keep Antonetti only if you think that in keeping Antonetti, you preserve the best parts of Shapiro while rooting out his shortcomings. Heck, maybe that's actually the case, but I personally couldn't say. It doesn't seem likely. And if Antonetti was the instant front-runner for most any GM opening, what would that make Shapiro if he were available?

Shapiro's calling card is turning walk-year veterans into prospects who become multi-year contributors to the team — a truly staggering haul, including Grady Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Coco Crisp, Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner, Milton Bradley, Franklin Gutierrez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Bard and Kelly Shoppach. Add to that list, potentially, over the next several years, Matt LaPorta, Carlos Santana, Luis Valbuena, Michael Brantley, Lou Marson, plus a half-dozen significant pitching prospects, plus Mark DeRosa, Arthur Rhodes, Justin Masterson and Chris Perez. Even his least successful trade acquisitions — Alex Escobar, Jason Michaels, Brandon Phillips, Billy Traber, Andy Marte, Josh Barfield — have not been entirely bereft of big-league talent.

We've chanted that litany before, but it bears recalling because horse trading is one of the most important jobs of a GM, and it's notably one of the only jobs where success or failure is directly traced to his decision. Shapiro also has had an impressive run with third-tier free agent starting pitchers — Pavano made 33 starts and netted a decent prospect, Byrd completed three serviceable seasons, Millwood won the freakin' ERA title, and even Brian Anderson did okay for a couple of years. And while fans rightly bemoan the dead weight of Hafner's contract, Shapiro has not really made the big, crippling mistakes that befall most GMs — on the balance sheet, Hafner-Westbrook-Dellucci pale before Wells-Rios-Ryan.

If you're going to get rid of Shapiro and his like-minded colleagues, then you have to be willing to live without those exemplary skills — without his leadership, class, and intelligence, his deftness with trades and contracts, the respect he commands within the industry, and especially — especially — his willingness to take the public body blows when tough decisions need to be made. You can't assume that the next guy will excel in all of those areas. I am certain we'd miss those qualities.

Having said that, I can tell you why Shapiro should be fired in one word: Talent.

Baseball is never simple. As a rule, the world's most elite natural athletes cannot succeed as major leaguers. Hitting and pitching are simply too hard. Hitting at this level requires a knack that may be the hardest thing to quantify or characterize in all of sports, and if you don't have it, then all the talk or mechanics and approaches in the world can't save you, even if you have several NBA championships and MVP awards on your résumé. Pitching at this level requires a freakish combination of precise muscle control, huge arm-generated torque, resistance to elbow and shoulder injury under extreme stress, and intelligence.

Running a baseball club may be just as hard and just as unquantifiable; after all, more than a few titans of industry have tried and failed. A brilliant executive can't necessarily run a ballclub any better than a world-class athlete can hit a curveball. The brilliant executive can be an inspiring leader, managing and empowering his charges. He can define what kind of people he wants working in the organization, hire them, set expectations, evaluate them, act on them. He can fire people. He can order case studies and surveys of best practices. He can analyze statistics and devise processes, enact them, evaluate them, refine them, start over from scratch if need be. He can maintain outstanding communication with his staff, with his bosses, with the public. He can do all these things reliably, even predictably, because he simply has the tools and the skills.

For all that, however, the brilliant executive can't necessarily tell you whether it's better to overspend on Raul Ibañez or Kerry Wood. He can't necessarily devise a process to tell you that, and he can't necessarily hire the right person to tell you that, either. Nor can he devise a process to hire the right person to tell you that. It doesn't always come down to objective analysis or having a good process. Sometimes it comes down to talent: the talent to play, the talent to evaluate talent, the talent to develop talent, and the judgment to make decisions about talent.

Sometimes — often, maybe — it comes down to reasons we can never comprehend or codify, pitiful schleppers that we are.

Evaluating talent is a special skill, and here I can speak with some experience. Most of my professional life is centered around my ability to identify genuine talent — musical talent, IT talent, and even writing talent — people who reliably will perform at a high or exceptionally high level, just about 100 percent of the time. I have, on occasion, identified individuals with weak paper qualifications who later went on to excel in their field. In some cases, they thrived in part because I gave them an opportunity and aided their development. In other cases, their success was inevitable, and I just saw it earlier than some others.

I am not suggesting, by any stretch of the imagination, that I have the ability to judge baseball talent. Maybe, if I'd spent 20 years working as a baseball professional, learning from thousands of discussions with scouts and making and testing my own observations — maybe then, but perhaps not even then. For whatever it's worth, though, I can tell you that my ability to assess a person's talents is entirely intuitive. I have no ability to explain it, or to teach anyone else how to do it. I can be highly analytical in my assessments of people, breaking down facts and metrics, making rules and devising grading systems to create rankings — and I can teach these things by rote and by example. However, none of that has anything to do with being able to differentiate reliably between a high ceiling and a low ceiling.

I can't tell you for sure that it's the same for baseball, but I worry that it is. Most of the people reading this could be trained in the rudiments of being a low-level scout — doing your homework and measuring some kid's raw tools on the field. Skills are another thing entirely — evaluating footwork and positioning on defense, observing quality of command across a variety of pitches, intuiting the difference between a bad day and a chronic problem. Beyond these, another level, the crucial, game-changing question: Will this ballplayer develop skills beyond what he's showing today? How does he project to a different level at a different age, or even just to a different ballpark in a different league?

I have no doubt that great baseball scouts learned a lot from the great scouts who came before them, and I have no doubt that a gifted executive can learn immensely from a great scout, purely by his ability to listen and communicate and absorb. At the same time, I am quite sure that the greatest talent evaluators in the game are possessed of something that is innate and ineffable. And I am genuinely concerned that the Indians don't employ any of those people — and that, in fact, Shapiro may have favored others in the organization to the point where the best evaluators left.

Take a look at the AP report of Neal Huntington being hired away by the Pirates:

Huntington formerly was the assistant general manager to the Indians' Mark Shapiro, but dropped behind vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and assistant general manager John Mirabelli on the front office depth chart two years ago.

Huntington accepted a different role in 2005, Shapiro said, because Antonetti's skills were in the management and administrative side, while Huntington's were in evaluation and scouting.

"My skill set and passion were more that of an evaluator, but they never technically took me out of the front office," Huntington said. "I was exposed to some incredible things -- rebuilding an organization and being involved in every decision, every tough decision, that was made."

And from the MLB.com report:

As an adviser to Shapiro and vice president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti, Huntington was involved in nearly all personnel and staffing decisions, as well as trade acquisition discussions. He also spent the majority of his time evaluating talent on both the Minor and Major League level.

When asked about Huntington, Shapiro responded: "[Huntington is] one of our chief evaluators and one of our strongest voices on every level," Shapiro said.

Here's a guy who was the highest-ranking evaluator in the organization and possibly the best, a guy with a master's degree in sports management from UMass, and essentially, he was passed over — well treated, perhaps, but pointedly not in line for a future role as GM. So too, perhaps, was John Farrell, who upon leaving Cleveland — quite amicably, as Huntington did — was quoted to say that he was looking to have a larger voice in an organization. Farrell had been a major league pitcher and a college pitching coach, and with the Indians he served stints as Farm Director and Director of Player Development. Despite his experience and impeccable reputation, Farrell too was not viewed as the future leader of the organization.

Years earlier, there was Tony LaCava, whom the Indians hired in 2002 as national cross-checker, essentially rescuing him from the sinking-ship Montreal Expos. As the Expos very recent Farm Director, LaCava naturally was instrumental in selecting the prospects to be received in the Colon deal, which is not only Shapiro's signature trade, but arguably the most successful trade of a veteran for prospects by any GM, ever. LaCava, too, was not retained in the Indians organization, moving on to the Blue Jays as Assistant GM in 2003, just one year later, while John Mirabelli continued his string of generally disastrous drafts.

Like Huntington, LaCava is going to be a GM sooner or later, yet he wasn't good enough to be Assistant GM in Cleveland. None of these guys were given large enough roles in the organization to keep them around, and no doubt the Indians were possessed of too much executive talent to keep in-house — a nice problem to have. Still, given how things have gone since, it's telling that the prince-in-waiting anointment, and present-day "co-GM" status, went not to an ace evaluator, but instead to Antonetti, a man whose background and skill set are more or less identical to Shapiro's.

For all the talk about being open to all ideas and all viewpoints, the major player-evaluation talent in the Indians organization was basically told that being a solid administrator was more important, and that their path to bigger jobs would have to be in some other, presumably less enlightened organization — and never mind that it doesn't matter how well administered your organization is if you don't know who the best talent is. (Is it any wonder, then, that when Shapiro hires a former catcher for a manager, he then populates his coaching staff almost entirely with other former catchers? All leaders lead by example, first and foremost.)

This is not to say that an executive without a scouting background cannot be an outstanding GM, but it's noteworthy that other organizations that have gone with the "Ivy League whiz kid" GM model tend to have a "wise old baseball man" figure hanging close by, advising the gifted non-scout executive. The Red Sox had Bill Lajoie attached to Theo Epstein; Allard Baird is in that role now, while Lajoie is now advising Huntington in Pittsburgh. The Rays put Gerry Hunsicker with Andrew Friedman, and down in Texas, Jon Daniels has access to no less than John Hart and Nolan Ryan. But when non-scout-gifted-executives Shapiro and Antonetti huddle to make the big decisions, who are the wise old evaluators in the room — Charles Nagy and Jason Bere?

Later that night, at home, Adriana and Christopher discuss Visiting Day's potential. Hip-hop mogul "Massive Genius" has told Adriana that the band's demos are promising.

CHRISTOPHER: You know how I use the technique of positive visualization?

ADRIANA: I know you talk about it. You're fairly negative a lot of the time.

CHRISTOPHER: I think you should mentally prepare for the possibility that Visiting Day sucks.

ADRIANA: What?

CHRISTOPHER: I think that ... the only reason you've gotten this far with Massive is ... he wants to be in your pants.

ADRIANA: Boy, oh, boy.

CHRISTOPHER: Look, I had some experts listen to the demo ... they crapped all over it. Sorry.

ADRIANA: Who, Hesh? That old synagogue cantor?

CHRISTOPHER: Silvio. Hey, he owned rock clubs in Asbury. You heard what Squid said. A professional engineer.

ADRIANA: What about my opinion? That it's good. That it's special. This is just a way for you to keep me down.

CHRISTOPHER: That ain't fair.

ADRIANA: What's wrong with it, huh? What's wrong with Visiting Day?

CHRISTOPHER: I don't know ... but it's a problem that you don't know.

This series of articles perhaps has only demonstrated the obvious, that a club this bad — which decides in June that it must not only tank the current season but the next season at the same time — has suffered multiple failures in more than one part of the organization. In any one area, we can talk about how much control that one group of people — coaches, scouts, trainers — really had, compared to the influence of the other groups and the whims of the fates. But a systemic failure points ultimately to Shapiro, who hired and is accountable for all of those groups, and the harsh truth is that every club must contend with the whims of the fates — or fail to contend with them, as the Indians have.

Amateur scouting has been a disaster since Shapiro took over; maybe time will reveal that it was fixed two or three years ago, but maybe not. Big-league scouting has been a mixed bag, with veteran acquisitions missing a lot more often than they hit — in Barfield's case, about four times more often. The training staff has won high praise from some in the industry, but they haven't stopped the Indians from being undercut severely by injuries to a half-dozen key players in just two years — in some cases, multiple injuries and disappointing rehab processes have afflicted a single player like Jake Westbrook over and over again. The farm system has been another mixed bag, producing too many players who dominate at Triple-A but can barely perform at replacement level in the majors. If all clubs were like the Indians in this regard, those MLE formulas might look a lot different.

We had a manager whose playing-time decisions often defied any imaginable logic or reason, who thought it was important to have Ramon Vazquez on his bench rather than future 30-30 man Brandon Phillips, and who thought it was a good idea to put Ryan Garko in the outfield, with a rookie flyball pitcher on the mound — scratch that, ever — and we had a GM who let him do these things. It's true that Shapiro fired Wedge, and he may be sincere in saying that bringing in a new manager is an exciting opportunity. Even so, Shapiro made it abundantly clear that he didn't think there was any real, qualitative reason why Wedge shouldn't continue to be the manager — his exact words were, "it's a cop-out."

We had extraordinarily bad — and sometimes historically bad — bullpens in 2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009. Those volcanic fiascos were, at least, largely Shapiro's direct creations, and at most, entirely the fault of Shapiro and people who were hired by Shapiro, and who generally have not been fired by Shapiro. They have turned too many contenders into also-rans, too many decent squads into train-wrecks, and too many season ticket holders into non-customers.

The sum of these observations is this one, frightening, inescapable conclusion: Shapiro has not given us any concrete reason to believe that he knows how to put people into critical positions who are capable of evaluating, developing and coaching real talent — the kind that can thrive at the major league level. Without people in key roles who are possessed of that kind of judgment and talent, it doesn't make any difference how good your organizational processes are or how much class-acting you do. We cannot contend on a diet of trade-acquired minor leaguers and recycled starting pitchers alone. If these things weren't clear five years ago, or even one year ago, they ought to be crystal clear now.

I am just a scribe, neither scout nor coach, not a baseball executive and certainly not a former major leaguer. So I don't really know what's wrong with the Cleveland Indians. But it's a problem if Mark Shapiro doesn't know either. And as much respect for him as I have, I'm not at all convinced that he does.

Washington Nationals Win Season Finale In 15 Innings, Sweep Atlanta Braves To Finish 2009 59-103.

Ed Chigliak — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 23:23:55 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' Elijah Dukes takes his base with a smile after being walked by Atlanta Braves' Boone Logan during the 15th inning of their baseball game Sunday Oct. 4, 2009, in Atlanta. Dukes later scored on a hit by Alberto Gonzalez to win 2-1. (AP Photo/John Amis)

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SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEPPP!!!!!!!

Game 162 of 2009 took 4 hours, 18 minutes and 15 innings to finish and when it was over the Washington Nationals had completed a four-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves for their seventh-straight win (and second-straight sweep) to end a 2009 season they started 0-7 before recording their first win...And, yes, that is the first time that's ever happened...DC starter J.D. Martin allows just one-run on 6 hits in 6.0 IP, giving up Nate McLouth's solo HR to leadoff the sixth and put Atlanta ahead 1-0. Braves' righty Tim Hudson gives up just 4 hits through 6.0 IP, but three-straight singles from Alberto Gonzalez, Jorge Padilla and pinch hitter Adam Dunn bring in the tying run in the seventh and it remains tied through fourteen before Elijah Dukes takes a one-out walk and Wil Nieves and Alberto Gonzalez hit back to back two-out singles to score Dukes for the winning run...

Nationals win, 2-1 final.

Miss The Game?

• The DC Faithful Were Watching!!! (634 comments) vs The Talking Chop Open Thread (718 comments)

• "Game 162: Finally, some history we can call our own!" - Doghouse.

• BACKPAGE: Dunn Doesn't Reach 40 - J.D. Martin Finishes Strong - Strasburg To Pitch Tomorrow.

• For The Completist, Full (and I mean FULL) Game Report After The JUMP...

Nationals finish 2009 59-103.

BACKPAGE:

• Dunn Doesn't Reach 40...Adam Dunn hit his 38th HR of 2009 on September 22nd against Los Angeles, leaving the Nationals' big left-handed hitting slugger with 10 games to hit the 39th and 40th HR's of 2009. Had he reached 40 HR's for the sixth-straight season, Dunn would've been one of only four players in MLB history (along with Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa and Babe Ruth) to hit 40+ HR's in six-straight seasons, leaving him just one behind Ruth's industry standard of seven-straight 40 HR seasons. Dunn, however, managed just 3 hits in his next 36 at bats (2 of them doubles, but no HR's) heading into today's game, and when he wasn't in the starting lineup, the DC Faithful knew it was over. Having failed to reach 40 HR's for the first time in six seasons didn't seem to upset Dunn too much. The Big Walky, Big Opposite Field, The Big First Baseman, singled in one of Washington's two runs in a pinch hit appearance this afternoon to finish the season with a .267 AVG, 29 doubles, 38 HR's and 105 RBI's.

• J.D. Martin Finishes Strong...With no-decisions in his last 4 starts, J.D. Martin finishes the 2009 campaign (5-4) with a 4.44 ERA, one of only two Nationals' pitchers to finish the season with a record above .500. (Shairon Martis finished (5-3), though he was sent down in mid-June and didn't return). In his final start of 2009, Martin throws 73 pitches, 50 for strikes in 6.0 IP, allowing just 6 hits and 1 ER. The Nationals' 26-year-old right-hander, who was (8-3) with a 2.66 ERA in 15 starts, 1 relief appearance and 88.0 IP with the Triple-A Syracuse Chiefs before making his MLB debut on July 20th, 2009, might just have pitched his way onto the 20-10 roster.

• Strasburg To Pitch Tomorrow...I know it's a cliche to say that the 2010 season starts the second the final out of 2009 is recorded, but with MLB.com's Bill Ladson writing this afternoon that '09 #1 overall pick, Stephen Strasburg would be making his first appearance as a National tomorrow afternoon in an instructional league game against Detroit, it is actually accurate. Instructional League, The Arizona Fall League, the Dominican Winter League, baseball never really stops, and neither do we...see you...tomorrow.

GAME REPORT:

Washington Nationals At Atlanta Braves. Game 162 Of 162.

Justin Maxwell vs Tim Hudson to start the last game of the season, and a brutal two-strike bender gets J-Max swinging for the first out of the day. Ian Desmond takes a 2-2 fastball on the low outside corner for a called strike three. Pete Orr smokes a single through second for a two-out hit in front of Elijah Dukes. Dukes rolls the third out to first to end the opening frame...Jorge Padilla bounces off the wall as he closes the glove on a fly ball out from Nate McLouth. Pete Orr dives toward the third base line but can’t get to Omar Infante’s line drive double. Martin Prado pops out to second. Garrett Anderson grounds out to first, inning over.

Mike Morse grounds weakly to third to start the second. Josh Bard likes the first pitch he sees and he grounds out to second. Alberto Gonzalez flies to right to end the Nationals’ half...Adam LaRoche flies out to right field. Yunel Escobar gives Dukes more work. Kelly Johnson grounds to Morse at first to end the second.

Jorge Padilla swings wildly over a full-count sinker. J.D. Martin stares strike three all the way in. Justin Maxwell walks with two down. Ian Desmond hits a high chopper that dies in the grass halfway to third, refusing to go foul. Pete Orr grounds to LaRoche at first and it’s 0-0 in the third...Clint Sammons skies one to right for Elijah Dukes to get under. Tim Hudson lines a one-out single to center and the oh-oh-oh-ing starts in Atlanta. Nate McLouth takes a 2-2 slider on the outside edge. Omar Infante flies out to left.

Elijah Dukes takes a low full-count slider but Tim Hudson gets the call. Mike Morse flies out to right. Josh Bard slips a hard-hit grounder by first and hustles his way to second. Alberto Gonzalez grounds out to end the Nationals’ fourth...Martin Prado flies out to Elijah Dukes in right. Garrett Anderson pops out over short, and J.D. Martin gets a fly ball from Adam LaRoche to end the fourth scoreless.

Jorge Padilla hits a fly ball out to Nate McLouth in center field for Atlanta. J.D. Martin can’t handle what Hudson’s throwing, but Justin Maxwell just takes and takes and walks, then tries to take more but gets caught trying to steal second, no score after four and a half...Yunel Escobar takes strike three and has few choice bi-lingual words for the Ump. Kelly Johnson singles through second with one down. Clint Sammons flies out to Justin Maxwell in center.

Ian Desmond grounds out to third. Pete Orr pops out to third. Elijah Dukes hits a two-out single to left field, but Mike Morse’s infield pop ends the top of the sixth...J.D. Martin gives up a long fly ball to right on an 0-1 change to Nate McLouth, who puts it over the wall for a 1-0 lead. Jorge Padilla sprints to the corner to catch the first out off of Omar Infante’s bat. Martin Prado drives a single by a lunging Ian Desmond at second. Garrett Anderson lines out to Jorge Padilla in left for out No. 2. Adam LaRoche lines to left field, Jorge Padilla comes up throwing and nails Prado trying for third.

Josh Bard leads off the seventh against Tim Hudson. Bard grounds out to second. Alberto Gonzalez singles to center and Jorge Padilla follows with a second-straight single and Adam Dunn gets a PH chance. Dunn lines a hanging bender to right to score Gonzalez from second for a 1-1 tie!!! Justin Maxwell K’s/fails swinging through an 0-2 fastball upstairs and inside. Ian Desmond grounds out to first to strand two. 1-1 in the seventh...Yunel Escobar sends the first pitch from Tyler Clippard soaring into center field for Justin Maxwell. Kelly Johnson K’s swinging through a two-strike change. Clint Sammons K’s looking at a fastball inside.

Pete Orr grounds out to second to start the Nationals’ eighth. Braves’ reliever Peter Moylan walks Elijah Dukes with one down. Mike Morse grounds to Yunel Escobar to Kelly Johnson to Adam LaRoche at first, double play...Chipper Jones guides a high outside heater through short for a single. Nate McLouth gets a sac bunt down and gets tagged out by Clippard as Chipper moves up. Pete Orr looks Chipper back to second and throws out Omar Infante on a weak grounder. Martin Prado flies to deep center, but Justin Maxwell gets there, no problem.

Josh Bard pops up a 2-1 pitch from Rafael Soriano. Alberto Gonzalez takes a one-out walk in front of pinch hitter Josh Willingham. The Hammer K’s swinging through a high heater. Cristian Guzman grounds out to end the Nationals’ ninth...Ron Villone gets a groundout to third from Garrett Anderson. Adam LaRoche K’s swinging through a 2-2 bender upstairs. Yunel Escobar keeps hope alive for Atlanta with a two-out single through second. Kelly Johnson hits a broken bat blooper to second and the last game will take more than nine innings to decide.

Kris Medlen gets Justin Maxwell swinging to start the tenth. Ian Desmond rrrrips a grounder by third base and into the corner for a one-out double to left. Pete Orr pops out to short center. Elijah Dukes grounds out to second to end the top of the tenth...Ron Villone’s back in the tenth against Clint Sammons, who flies out to left. Pinch hitter Greg Norton takes a one-out walk. Nate McLouth K’s swinging through a looping bender over the middle. Jason Bergmann on for Villone against Omar Infante. Infante battles, but K’s swinging through a full-count slider!!

Kenshin Kawakami vs Mike Morse in the eleventh. Morse sends a dribbler by Adam LaRoche at first and Omar Infante misplays it to give Morse second. Wil Nieves tries the sac bunt and hits it too hard, Morse cut down at third. Alberto Gonzalez grounds to Yunel Escobar to Kelly Johnson to Adam LaRoche, double play...Saul "Sa-ool" Rivera pops up Martin Prado. Reid Garecki K’s swinging through a high fastball. Adam LaRoche grounds to first to end the eleventh.

Josh Willingham singles to left and takes second on a sac bunt from Saul Rivera. Justin Maxwell vs Kenshin Kawakami. Maxwell can’t hold up and he K’s swinging at a low fastball for the second out. Ian Desmond up when a wild pitch from Kawakami gets by Clint Sammons. Hammer to third. Ian Desmond lines to left and it’s...caught, Omar Infante makes a shoestring catch to rob Desmond...Saul Rivera gets a weak grounder from Yunel Escobar for the first out. Kelly Johnson rips one to first, Mike Morse knocks it down and tosses to Rivera covering. Clint Sammons shatters his bat but singles with two down. Pinch hitter Brian McCann grounds back to the mound and it’s on to the thirteenth.

Eric O’Flaherty takes over on the mound for Atlanta in the thirteenth. Pete Orr grounds out to second. Elijah Dukes flies out to center. Mike Morse K’s swinging...Nate McLouth flies out to the track in center field for Justin Maxwell. Omar Infante lines a double on one hop and over the wall in center with one down. Saul Rivera walks Martin Prado in front of Brooks Conrad, who flies out harmlessly to center. Adam LaRoche grounds out to first, and it’s on to the fourteenth...

Manny Acosta takes over against Wil Nieves, who walks to start the frame. Alberto Gonzalez flies out unproductively to center field. Josh Willingham can’t hold up on a low two-strike heater. Pinch hitter Ryan Zimmerman drives a double to center, McLouth cuts it off and Nieves stops at second. Justin Maxwell walks to load the bases for Ian Desmond...Logan Kensing’s on for DC. Yunel Escobar starts the Braves’ half with a line drive single to left. Kelly Johnson grounds to second, Alberto Gonzalez to Ian Desmond to Mike Morse, double play. Clint Sammons grounds back to the mound.

Pete Orr K’s looking to start the fifteenth. Boone Logan, the Braves’ right-hander, walks Elijah Dukes with one down. Mike Morse flies out unproductively to left. Wil Nieves singles to short right to move Dukes up. Alberto Gonzalez lines an RBI single to the left-center gap!! Dukes scores, 2-1 Nationals!!! Josh Willingham K’s looking to end the top of the frame...Logan Kensing vs Javier Vazquez. Vazquez grounds one off Logan Kensing’s pitching hand, Ian Desmond picks it up and throws out the pinch hitting pitcher. Nate McLouth K’s swinging over a sinker. Omar Infante singles up the middle with two down. Martin Prado drills an 0-2 pitch to left center, second and third with two down. Brooks Conrad K’s trying to check his swing and it’s over. Nationals win, 2-1 final.

Nationals finish season 59-103.

Justin Maxwell Hits A Walk-Off Grand Slam!!! Washington Nationals Win 7-4, Sweep New York Mets.

Ed Chigliak — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 00:15:20 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' Justin Maxwell cleans the shaving creamfromn his face after hitting a grand slam in the ninth inning against the New York Mets in a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2009, in Washington. The Nationals won 7-4. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP!!!!!

• Justin Maxwell works the count full with the bases loaded and two down in the ninth with NY ahead 4-3, and J-Max takes the Mets' high-priced closer Francisco Rodriguez deeeeeep to left and GONE for a walk-off Grand Slam in the last home game of the season in Nationals Park...DO YOU BELIEVE!!!!

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

See How The Mets Fans Took It At: Amazin' Avenue.

Check Out the Post Game And The Full Game Report (You Know, For The Completists), AFTER THE JUMP!!!

• Shadows from the stadium lights and the upper deck of Nationals Park are stretched in a large swath across the field of play from the left field grass, over third, the mound and wrapping around first as DC lefty John Lannan starts the final home game of the season against the New York Mets with a scoreless frame that Mets’ starter Tim Redding matches.

• Jeff Francoeur thinks for a moment that he’s hit a two-run HR to left off John Lannan in the top of the second, but it’s ruled a double upon further review, though the two runners who would have scored if it had been called correctly as a HR cross anyway when Fernando Tatis follows with a sac fly to right and Omir Santos hits an RBI single. 2-0 NY after two.

• Mets’ right-hander Tim Redding retires the first ten batters he faces before Elijah Dukes singles up the middle with one down in the fourth. Redding strands Dukes, but the Nationals finally get on the board in the fifth. Josh Willingham hits a leadoff single to center, moves to second when Josh Bard walks, third when Ian Desmond grounds out, and the Hammer comes home on a sac fly by Alberto Gonzalez to make it 2-1 NY after five.

• E: 140, 141...Angel Pagan hits a weak grounder to short with one down in the sixth, and Ian Desmond misplays what should have been the second out. E: 140. One out later, David Wright rrrrips a grounder to third, and Ryan Zimmerman sidesteps it and tries to snatch it with his glove and misses, E: 141. OUTCOME: Two on, two out. Carlos Beltran singles to center to score Pagan, 3-1 Mets’ lead after five and a half.

• THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! Ryan Zimmerman gives the DC Faithful reason to believe with a solo shot to center off Mets’ reliever Bobby Parnell in the eighth inning. Zimmerma---THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! hits his 33rd of ‘09 to make it 3-2 NY.

• E: 142. Ryan Zimmerman’s always had a habit of side-stepping hard hit grounders and trying to snap it up with his glove, but he’s missed two tonight and it might be time to start getting in front of them, cause his 17th error costs DC another run. OUTCOME: Jeff Francoeur reaches on the Zimmerman error and takes second. Fernando Tatis singles Frenchy over to third, and Omir Santos puts a perfect hit and run single behind the runner at second to score Francoeur for 4-2 NY lead...

• And Now The Epic Bottom Of The Ninth...

The New York Mets gave Francisco Rodriguez to a 3-year/$37 M dollar deal to close games for them, and the hard-throwing right-hander, who set the Major League record for saves last season, was called upon in the ninth tonight with the Mets desperate for a win against the pesky Washington Nationals who were threatening to sweep and seriously embarrass New York. Rodriguez, who'd converted 34 of 40 save opportunities this season, started Alberto Gonzalez with a 91 mph heater for a called strike and followed with a change that Gonzalez ripped to short and beat to first, sliding in headfirst ahead of Wilson Valdez's throw. Pinch hitter Mike Morse worked the count full in the next at bat and lined a K-Rod change back up the middle. Willie Harris fouled off one bunt attempt before getting a successful sac down to move Gonzalez and pinch runner Jorge Padilla into scoring position for Elijah Dukes, who worked the count full and took a gutsy ball four to load the bases for Ryan Zimmerman. Zim K'd swinging on the third pitch he saw, (curve for a called strike, fastball fouled off and an 0-2 change), to bring up Adam Dunn. The Big Walky battled K-Rod to a full count and took three straight out of the zone for a bases loaded walk and a one-run game which NY still led 4-3. Enter Justin Maxwell:

• Justin Maxwell...(1) Took a curve for ball one from Francisco Rodriguez then watched as a (2) second curve dropped in and the veteran hit the low outside corner with a (3) fastball for a called strike two. A four-seam fastball followed (4) that Maxwell took for ball two, 2-2, and then fouled off a fastball (5) and took a change outside (6) and looow to work the count full against K-Rod. 4-seam fastball up high (7), fouled off, four-seam fastball down low, (8) fouled off, and then a third straight fastball (9) that gets LAUNCHED TO LEFT AND GONE!!! GRAND SLAM!!! GRAND SLAM!!! Justin Maxwell wins it with a walk-off Grand SLAM!!! Nationals win, 7-4!!!

FULL GAME REPORT:

New York Mets At Washington Nationals. Game 158 Of 162.

Josh Willingham takes a knee to catch a low line drive from Angel Pagan. Anderson Hernandez makes Willingham spring to his left and leap up for a second hard-hit line out. David Wright flies to right and Elijah Dukes stares into the sun and makes the catch...Jeff Francoeur catches the first out for Tim Redding off Willie Harris’ bat. Elijah Dukes goes the other way with a high fly to right. Ryan Zimmerman swings through a high fastball to end the first inning.

Carlos Beltran walks to start the second and Jeff Francoeur lines one off the very top of the wall for what might be a HR? They’re taking a look. It’s ruled a double. Fernando Tatis flies out to right, Elijah Dukes tries for a throw home, but has no chance, 1-0 NY. Francoeur takes third on the bad throw. Omir Santos scores Francoeur with a single to center. 2-0 Mets. Lannan gets the DP grounder from Wilson Valdez, Alberto Gonzalez to Ian Desmond to Adam Dunn, double play...Adam Dunn flies out to left field for the first out of DC’s second. Josh Willingham grounds weakly to short. Josh Bard pushes Angel Pagan back to the track to end the bottom of the frame.

Tim Redding starts the third against Lannan with a ground ball to third for the first out. Angel Pagan lines out to Ian Desmond. Anderson Hernandez sends Elijah Dukes breaking back but he makes catch to end the Mets’ third...Ian Desmond’s grounder to short is cut off by David Wright, who fires to first. Alberto Gonzalez grounds out to short. John Lannan is the ninth-straight Nationals’ batter retired.

David Wright skies one to Dukes in right. Carlos Beltran’s way out in front of a two-strike change. Jeff Francoeur grounds to third, Zimmerman snaps it up and throws to first to end NY’s fourth...Willie Harris hits a high fly ball to center, Carlos Beltran makes the catch. Elijah Dukes singles up the middle to break up Redding’s streak of ten-straight set down. Jeff Francoeur avoids the stands that stick out into right and catches a foul ball from Zimmerman. Adam Dunn just pulls a long fly foul and ends up lining out to first to end the fourth.

John Lannan throws a high two-strike fastball by Fernando Tatis. Omir Santos grounds out Ian Desmond at short. WIlson Valdez rolls the first pitch out to third and Ryan Zimmerman’s throw ends the Mets’ fifth...Josh Willingham starts DC’s fifth with a sharp single to center. Josh Bard works a walk. Ian Desmond hits a swinging sac bunt toward first to advance both runners. Alberto Gonzalez flies out to center to score Willingham from third, 2-1 NY. John Lannan slaps a two-out single through short. Willie Harris K’s swinging through a fastball outside to end the fifth.

Tim Redding K’s in the first AB of the sixth. Angel Pagan grounds to short, and Ian Desmond gets a bad hop and misplays it. E: 140. Anderson Hernandez pops out to Dukes in right after a long AB. David Wright rips a grounder through Zimmerman at third. E:141. Carlos Beltran singles up the middle to score Pagan from second, 3-1 New York. Jeff Francoeur flies out to right...Elijah Dukes drops a surprise bunt down the third base line and David Wright can’t make a play. Ryan Zimmerman pops out unproductively. Adam Dunn's up when a wild pitch moves Dukes to second. Dunn flies out unproductively to center. Josh Willingham swings at the first pitch and grounds out to end the frame.

Fernando Tatis lines to left and beats the throw to second for a leadoff double. Omir Santos flies out to right field. WIlson Valdez takes a two-out walk and Gary Sheffield gets pinch hit intentionals to bring up Angel Pagan. Pagan grounds to Ian Desmond, who takes the force at second...Bobby Parnell vs Bard. Bard battles for 10 pitches and eventually walks. Ian Desmond grounds into a force at second in the next AB. Desmond avoids a ground ball from Alberto Gonzalez and Anderson Hernandez tries to get the force at second, but his toss is late. Two runners safe. Pinch hitter Cristian Guzman pops out unproductively to third. Willie Harris works the count full. Willie Harris grounds out to second to end the seventh.

Zach Segovia’s on to pitch the top of the eighth. Anderson Hernandez K’s swinging to start the inning. David Wright grounds out to third. Carlos Beltran pops out to the infield and Ian Desmond’s catch ends NY’s eighth...Elijah Dukes gets jammed and grounds out to the mound. Parnell vs Zimmerman. Ryan Zimmerma--THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!! THE KIDS CALL HIM ZIM!!! HR to straight center, 3-2 NY. Pedro Feliciano comes on to face Dunn. Adam Dunn pops out. Sean Green vs Willingham. Josh Willingham grounds to third, David Wright fields and throws...by first, Hammer is safe, and he takes second. Justin Maxwell runs for the Hammer. Josh Bard works another walk to put two on for Ian Desmond. Desmond grounds up the middle, Anderson Hernandez gets there and tosses to second for the inning-ending force.

Jeff Francoeur vs Segovia in the ninth. Francoeur grounds sharply to third that Zimmerman can’t come up with, Zimmerman drops it and throws way over first, E: 142. Frenchy takes second. Fernando Tatis lines a single over short. Omir Santos smacks a hit and run single through second to bring Francoeur home, 4-2 NY. Wilson Valdez grounds back to the mound. Segovia gets one out at first. Ron Villone replaces Segovia and gets a weak grounder toward first from pinch hitter Daniel Murphy grounds out to first. Ryan Zimmerman throws out Angel Pagan to end the Mets’ half of the ninth...Alberto Gonzalez singles to short, deep in the hole and Gonalez beats Wilson Valdez's throw to first. Mike Morse makes a pinch hit appearance, and he singles to center!!! Jorge Padilla comes on to run. Two on for Willie Harris. Harris gets a sac bunt down. Second and third for Dukes!! Dukes works the count full and walks. Ryan Zimmerman K’s swinging through an 0-2 slider. Adam Dunn works the count full, and walks in a run!! 4-3 ballgame. Justin Maxwell works the count full, fouls off two fastballs, and then OH LORD!! IT’S GONE!! J-MAX takes K-ROD Deeeeeeeeeeep to left and GONE!! GRAND SLAM!!! GRAND SLAM!! GRAND SLAM!!! THE NATIONALS WIN!! THE NATIONALS WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 7-4 final. Francisco Rodriguez is on to end it. Alberto Gonzalez reaches safely on a grounder deep in the hole at short.

Nationals now 55-103!!!

Ross Detwiler Claims First MLB Win, 2-1 Over The Lowly New York Mets.

Ed Chigliak — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 02:55:33 -0000

More photos » by Manuel Balce Ceneta - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals' starter Ross Detwiler pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the New York Mets, Monday, Sept. 28, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

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• Ross Detwiler's First MLB Win...The Mets' SNY announce team of Gary Cohen, former Nationals' announcer and Mets' pitcher Ron Darling and Seinfeld star Keith Hernandez criticized Ross Detwiler at one point, claiming that he should still be pitching in the minors as raw as he was, and on any team other than the Mets or Nationals he probably would be, but Ross Detwiler, (the 6th overall pick and the 3rd pitcher taken in the '07 Draft behind #1 overall David Price and left-hander Daniel Moskos, who went 4th overall to the Pirates), was able to beat the Mets tonight, so...Enjoy the rebuild Citi Field season ticket holders!!!

Detwiler goes 6.0 IP and allows just 7 hits, 1 walk and 1 ER as he earns his first MLB W...Here's How It Happened...

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• "Revenge of the softball girls" - by Doghouse.

FULL GAME REPORT AFTER THE JUMP...

• A productive groundout by Ian Desmond moves Justin Maxwell from second to third after a leadoff hit off NY Mets' right-hander Nelson Figueroa in the first inning tonight, and Ryan Zimmerman follows with an RBI flyout to short right that scores Maxwell on a close play at home, and that’s all the Nationals need for Washington’s first run...oh, that and an error on a backhand attempt by David "Gold Glove" Wright who turns an infield hit into a runner on second to start the game and Ryan Zimmerman’s 102nd RBI.

• After two quick frames, Ross Detwiler gives up a two-out walk to Angel Pagan. A hard-hit grounder by Luis Castilla gets by third when Ryan Zimmerman tries a Zimmermanesque sidestep stab. David Wright steps in with two and two out...Ross Detwiler gets D. Wright looking to end the Mets’ first threat...Still 0-0 after four, Detwiler gives up a leadoff single to Anderson Hernandez in the Mets' fifth, and Nelson Figueroa reaches first safely on a sac attempt when Josh Bard throws late to second, so Angel Pagan’s bunt, which follows Figueroa's, moves two runners into scoring postition with one down. Detwiler gets a line drive out to Ian Desmond at short from Luis Castillo and gets a groundout to short from David Wright. 5.0 scoreless for Detwiler in what is probably his last start of ‘09.

• The Mets get on the board in the sixth. Detwiler gives up a single to center by Carlos Beltran, who takes second on a wild pitch and scores one out later when Fernando Tatis singles to right. 1-1 ballgame. Another wild pitch puts two runners in scoring position with Nelson Figueroa at bat, but Detwiler gets the opposing pitcher swinging to end the top of the frame.

• Mike Morse gives DC back their lead!! Solo shot to right to start the Nationals’ sixth, 2-1 DC. 3 HR’s in 3-straight games for Morse who’s now matched his career total coming into the season...Justin Maxwell singles to start the Nationals’ seventh, and moves to second on a sac bunt by Desmond, but then Zimmerman grounds to short, and J-Max runs anyway and gets thrown out at third...Dunn flies out, DC will have to settle for a one-run lead.

• Jason Bergmann walks the first batter he faces in the seventh but gets out of the frame with the lead when he K’s Jeff Francoeur, throwing a high heater outside by Frenchy with two on and two out. Bergmann comes back in the eighth and retires the side in order, to put the Nationals three outs away from their 53rd win and Ross Detwiler’s first.

• MacDougal Will Do It...After allowing 4 hits and 5 runs in his last two outings, Mike MacDougal...for the first time in 6 trips to the hill...was able to pitch a scoreless frame as he converted the 16th of 17 save opportunities this season and closed out Ross Detwiler's first Major League win...

Nationals win, 2-1 final.

For The Completists, Full Game Report Starts....NOW!!!

New York Mets At Washington Nationals. Game 156 Of 162.

GAME REPORT:

Angel Pagan lines a little too hard to right where Mike Morse takes an awkard leap to catch the first out. Luis Castillo flies weakly to Morse. David Wright lines over first for a two-out double off DC lefty Ross Detwiler. Ian Desmond fields and fires to first to get Carlos Beltran and end the top of the first...Nelson Figueroa gives up a leadoff hit to Justin Maxwell on a high chopper to third that David Wright can’t backhand. Ian Desmond’s groundout to second moves J-Max to third. Ryan Zimmerman flies to short right, Maxwell tags up and breaks for home as Jeff Francoeur throws in and up the line, 1-0 as Maxwell avoids the tag. Adam Dunn K’s swinging to end the first.

Mike Morse hustles back and catches the first out of the second at the wall off Jeff Francoeur’s bat. Ian Desmond throws out Fernado Tatis. Omir Santos flies out just left of center to Justin Maxwell...Josh Willingham hangs one up in the air for Carlos Beltran to catch. Mike Morse rips one to the hole at short, and Anderson Hernandez just knocks it down. Josh Bard pops up the first pitch he sees. Alberto Gonzalez grounds into a force to end the DC second.

Anderson Hernandez grounds out to Ian Desmond. Nelson Figueroa grounds out to third. Ross Detwiler walks Angel Pagan with two down. Luis Castillo gets knocked down but not hit by a fastball inside and ends up singling by Ryan Zimmerman at third when he tries to snatch it instead of getting in front of it. First and third for Wright. Detwiler hits the inside corner with a two-strike fastball for a backwards K...Detwiler gets called out on strikes. Justin Maxwell flies out to the wall in right center. Ian Desmond rrrips a two-out triple off the out-of-town scoreboard. Ryan Zimmerman walks with two down. Adam Dunn grounds to Luis Castillo at second to end the third.

Ian Desmond throws out Carlos Beltran. Jeff Francoeur grounds out to Dunn at first. Fernando Tatis’ double falls in fair down the line in right. Omir Santos flies to center to end the Mets’ fourth...Josh Willingham chases a slider into the left-hand batter’s box. Mike Morse grounds sharply to short, Anderson Hernandez gets there but throws it by first. Morse to second. Josh Bard grounds out to first to advance Morse to third. Alberto Gonzalez gets the intentionals to set Detwiler up with two on and two out. Detwiler K’s to end the fourth.

Anderson "Elvis" Hernandez singles to center, Justin Maxwell charges in to field it on the curly-W in the grass. Figueroa drops a bunt in front of home, Bard throws to second too late, and Desmond holds it at second while Figueroa slowly runs to first. Angel Pagan bunts both runners into scoring position. Luis Castillo lines out to short. David Wright grounds out to short to end the fifth...Justin Maxwell pops out to right. Ian Desmond drops a bunt toward third, Wright barehands and throws behind the runner and past Tatis behind first. Desmond takes second. Ryan Zimmerman gets a two-strike slider inside that’s called strike three. Adam Dunn gets the intentionals. Josh WIllingham grounds into a force at second to end the fifth.

Carlos Beltran singles to center to start the sixth. Jeff Francoeur’s up, Detwiler throws a fastball by home, Beltran to second. Francoeur K’s chasing a high two-strike fastball outside. Fernando Tatis lines to center, Beltran scores and it’s tied at 1-1. Omir Santos flies out to center. Anderson Hernandez grounds to second and reaches safely when Alberto Gonzalez’s throw is late. Another wild pitch moves both runners up. Nelson Figueroa K’s swinging to end the frame...Mike Morse goes the other way with a high fly ball to right and GONE!!!! HR for Morse, 2-1 DC!! Josh Bard pops out. Alberto Gonzalez flies out to left. Jorge Padilla lines out to end the sixth.

Jason Bergmann tries to hold the lead for Detwiler. Leadoff walk to Angel Pagan is not a good start. Luis Castilla’s sac bunt moves Pagan to second. David Wright grounds out to Desmond at short for the second out. Carlos Beltran gets two balls and then gets the intentionals. Jeff Francoeur K’s chasing a curve in the dirt!!! Called strike three!!!!...Justin Maxwell vs Sean Green. J-Max shoots a low-liner to right. Ian Desmond bunts J-Max over. Ryan Zimmerman grounds to short, Maxwell breaks for third and gets thrown out. Figueroa out for Pedro Feliciano. Adam Dunn flies out to left to end the seventh.

Fernando Tatis flies to right and Mike Morse has to make a basket catch to avoid Justin Maxwell as he cuts in front of the right fielder. Jason Bergmann gets a line-drive out to center from Omir Santos. Daniel Murphy pops out to third to end the Mets’ eighth...Bobby Parnell vs Willingham to start the Nationals’ eighth. Elijah Dukes in on to run. Mike Morse K’s swinging. Josh Bard grounds into an inning ending DP...Wait for it...

Mike MacDougal vs Cory Sullivan. Sullivan grounds to first, ONE!! Angel Pagan grounds to Desmond, TWO! Luis Castillo grounds to short, Desmond to first, Ballgame!!! Nationals win, 2-1 final. Ross Detwiler gets his first career W. Congrats, Mr. Detwiler!!!!

Nationals now 53-103.

If The Washington Nationals' 101st Loss Falls In A Forest...? Atlanta Braves win, 4-1.

Ed Chigliak — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 06:42:03 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

2 months ago: Atlanta Braves* Javier Vazquez, front, is tagged out by Washington Nationals pitcher John Lannan on a bunt-attempt during the fourth inning of a baseball game, Friday, Sept. 25, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez)

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The Washington Nationals' 101st loss of 2009 came and went without much fanfare (or offense from the Nationals). There won't be any stories about the 4-1 Friday night loss to Atlanta on the Drudge Report tomorrow. Sportscenter won't dig up some obscure facts about back-to-back 101-loss seasons by teams in baseball's "modern era", and since only a few thousand people witnessed the game live, (28,276 according to the MLB boxscore, which counts tickets sold rather than fans in attendance), and no one's watching the Nationals on TV anymore, Washington's 101st loss will pretty much go unnoticed. But I noticed, and I was watching, and I guarantee you there were not twenty-eight thousand plus in Nationals Park, I was there, standing for half the game on the Red Porch overlooking the outfield where Josh Willinghman dropped a line drive in the first, and Justin Maxwell and Willie Harris let a ball fall between them for an RBI hit, and an early 2-0 Braves' lead after one. Then I moved down below to field level seats behind first base with some friends, where I watched closely as Atlanta's starter (former Montreal Expos' ace) Javier Vazquez dominated the Nationals, throwing 104 pitches over 9.0 innings and giving up just 3 hits and 1 ER on a HR by Josh Bard for the only run DC scored all night. The win kept the Braves mathematically alive in the playoff hunt, so it means something to Atlanta and the thousands of displaced Georgians who filled Nationals Park, but all it means to Washington is that they're on the verge of passing the '08 loss total that I think most fans assumed, or at least hoped, was rock bottom...

(cont.)...

The Nationals entered the season talking about playing .500 ball. The '08 season had been an anomaly, had the team been healthy there's no way they would have lost that many games, and with Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham added to the batting order, this team was sure to have more pop, (forgetting for a moment that offense was added at the expense of any semblance of a competitive rotation or pen), if the pitchers just kept the Nationals in games, the offense would come through. Tell that to John Lannan, who threw 122 pitches tonight, and gave up just six hits and 2 runs, (both unearned after Pete Orr committed a two-out error in the first to let DC's lefty off the hook), and received no run support in what would end up being his 13th loss of 2009... Lannan (L, 9-13), was making his third run at double-digit wins, and he's the only DC starter who even has a shot, but he'll have to do it in what's likely his last '09 start next time out if there's any hope.

So the Nationals, after the loss, are now 52-101. With nine games left they'll have to go 7-0 in 4 more against Atlanta, and three with New York to avoid finishing the season with less than last year's dismal total of 59 wins, but even that would leave DC 59-103, one loss worse than in 2008 and 14 losses worse than they were in 2007.

Will the fact that the Nationals signed their #1 overall pick and earned the right to draft the next over-hyped, over-priced prospect, who happens to be a precocious teenage catcher, be enough to make you forget that in the last two seasons the team's gone 111-203. And will it make you forget that in the same year Washington signed Stephen Strasburg and earned the right to draft the next big thing in prospects, 17-year-old catcher Bryce Harper, they also lost their number one pitching prospect to Tommy John surgery and saw last year's catcher of the future suffer a SLAP tear of the right labrum while he was recovering from a stress fracture in the same shoulder?

(ed. note - "Sorry for the prolonged rant, but aside from the pitching performances, what else is there to say about tonight's loss? E: 134 - Pete Orr misses a sharp grounder at second that may or may not have grazed the second base ump. E:135 - Ian Desmond makes a throwing error in center on a ball hit to Justin Maxwell...I really have no idea what happened here, I was too busy shaking my head...")

Braves win, 4-1 final.

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Nationals now 52-101.