SB Nation - Mark Redman

Groundballs and the Bullpen: Do we need them?

RockiesMagicNumber — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 19:00:29 -0000

In the Rockpile today, Poseidon's Fist linked an article by Dave Cameron of Fangraphs discussing the Rockies' postseason rotation. He breaks it down to Ubaldo-Cook-DLR-Hammel, leaving Marquis off of the rotation. But it isn't just "lol marquis is teh awfuls," he raises a really good point:

Marquis would give the bullpen something it doesn't have right now - a guy to come in and get a ground ball in order to induce a DP or a play at the plate.

He raises a good point. The bullpen we have going into the postseason is very strikeout-heavy, pretty much bereft of groundballers. But is that such a bad thing?

Name	GB/FB	GB%	FB%	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP
Aaron Cook	2.30	56.7%	24.7%	4.44	2.68	1.66	1.08	.282	1.41
Jason Marquis	2.00	55.6%	27.8%	4.75	3.31	1.44	0.64	.260	1.36
Ubaldo Jimenez	1.85	52.3%	28.2%	7.98	3.44	2.32	0.55	.232	1.24
Juan Rincon	1.41	47.7%	33.8%	8.77	7.01	1.25	0.70	.199	1.48
Jason Hammel	1.51	46.3%	30.8%	6.75	2.16	3.12	0.88	.290	1.39
Jorge de la Rosa	1.32	44.7%	34.0%	9.35	4.10	2.28	0.99	.251	1.4
Joe Beimel	0.83	40.4%	48.9%	6.60	2.40	2.75	1.20	.287	1.4
Matt Belisle	1.03	40.4%	39.4%	6.23	1.48	4.20	1.78	.284	1.29
Randy Flores	1.08	40.0%	37.1%	10.03	1.54	6.50	1.54	.299	1.37
Jose Contreras	1.25	39.5%	31.6%	9.00	4.50	2.00	1.29	.288	1.64
Huston Street	0.92	39.1%	42.4%	10.29	1.94	5.31	1.04	.202	0.93
Matt Daley	0.59	32.8%	55.5%	9.77	2.84	3.44	0.89	.223	1.13
Rafael Betancourt	0.60	29.5%	49.2%	10.13	1.88	5.40	0.38	.201	0.92
Franklin Morales	0.54	27.1%	50.5%	9.30	4.76	1.95	0.91	.233	1.39
Joel Peralta	0.50	24.7%	49.3%	8.03	4.38	1.83	1.09	.280	1.58

It's interesting to note that the strikeouts and groundballs seem to be inversely correlated, but that's a different study entirely.

Contrast this bullpen with the guys in 2007, just based on GB%:

Name	GB/FB	GB%	FB%	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP
LaTroy Hawkins	3.03	63.3%	20.9%	4.72	2.6	1.81	0.98	0.25	1.23
Aaron Cook	2.46	57.9%	23.6%	3.31	2.39	1.39	0.81	0.275	1.34
Manny Corpas	2.03	57.4%	28.3%	6.69	2.31	2.9	0.69	0.223	1.06
Franklin Morales	2.07	54.9%	26.5%	5.95	3.2	1.86	0.46	0.235	1.22
Jeremy Affeldt	1.63	53.0%	32.5%	7.02	5.03	1.39	0.46	0.22	1.36
Matt Herges	1.22	46.5%	38.0%	5.55	2.77	2	0.74	0.199	1.01
Ubaldo Jimenez	1.26	46.4%	36.7%	7.46	4.06	1.84	1.1	0.232	1.3
Jeff Francis	1.19	44.4%	37.2%	6.9	2.63	2.62	1.04	0.278	1.38
Ryan Speier	1.38	41.5%	30.2%	6.5	4	1.63	0.5	0.283	1.56
Mark Redman	0.96	41.3%	42.9%	6.41	2.75	2.33	0.92	0.275	1.37
Josh Fogg	1.00	40.0%	40.0%	5.11	3.21	1.59	1.25	0.293	1.53
Brian Fuentes	0.83	35.9%	43.1%	8.22	3.38	2.43	0.88	0.21	1.13

Click past the jump and we'll break these numbers down.

In 2009, our 3 most extreme groundballers are all starting pitchers. Which makes sense, more or less, it helps mitigate damage via the double play and it keeps pitch counts down by getting more balls in play early in the count.

In 2007, however, 3.5 of our 5 most extreme groundballers were in the bullpen, and only Aaron Cook was in the rotation. Morales' role in the postseason was somewhat mixed, so that's why he gets the .5 for pen and .5 for rotation.

So in a casual sense, yes, we'd like a groundballer in the bullpen. But it seems, for the rationale listed above, that the groundballers are better suited to the rotation, as they are more prone to giving up hits (at least in terms of Marquis and Cook), and typically with bullpen duty, you want to get the outs as lock-downingly as possible, as to mitigate potential inherited damage.

So let's get a quick look at how 2007 and 2009 stack up in summation.

2007	GB%	K/9	tRA*
Rotation	45.71%	5.61	4.96
Bullpen	50.01%	6.46	4.44

2009	GB%	K/9	tRA*
Rotation	51.24%	6.69	4.33
Bullpen	38.48%	8.02	4.06

You could probably just look at that little chart and say "well, the Rockies just are a better pitching team this year" and I wouldn't argue with you at all. But it does seem that in sacrificing GB% for K/9, we made our pen better, and by further emphasizing GB% in the rotation, it made it better there as well.

The two pitchers I'd like to single out kind of embody the balance between the two measures presented: Ubaldo Jimenez and Manny Corpas.

I don't think I need to say much about Jimenez. 7.98 K/9 and 52.3% GB and he throws 700mph and he runs on clean burning biodiesel.

Corpas, however (and I'll keep this somewhat brief, I want to touch on his season more after we're all wrapped up with 2009), strikes out a decent amount, has excellent control of the strike zone (as in he never walks anyone), and still throws his slider very effectively. He also has a career GB% of 51.4%.

His sinker/2seamer/whatever we're calling it lost something this year, and there's a distinct chance we could chalk some of that up to a damaged elbow causing him to overthrow or something (this really isn't my area of expertise). He got hit a lot harder than we'd like to see, but I really think he'll rebound in 2010. He still gets a good number of ground balls, still doesn't give up many fly balls, and actually posted a lower FIP in 2009 than '08 or '07.

Frankly, and I know he was kind of awful this year, but I do think the pen missed having Corpas just for the different toolset he brought along. I mean, clearly we didn't miss him TOOOOOOOO much, but we had to rely on guys like Flores to come strike one LHB out (and he did do that pretty well: 11K to 1BB v LHB) when we had a jam to get out of. Season-long, yeah, Corpas was trouble, but situationally, he might still be a good tool to have around. But again, next season.

As for the original issue, having Marquis in the pen WOULD present us with a groundballing option, but I'm not 100% convinced I want to bring him into tight situations, especially with how wild his last start was in general. If you want a situational groundballer, you need a guy who can come in and paint corners with either a nasty changeup or a strong sinker, locating low and getting the big double play outs. I don't see Marquis being able to do that.

Mopup guy? Sure. 3 inning relief? Sure.

Situational groundballer? ehhhhhhh I wish we had Corpas still.

Tracy Ringolsby reaches out to the Row to explain DL, playoff rosters

Poseidon's Fist — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 01:25:06 -0000

The Rockies have been to the playoffs twice in 18 seasons. It would make sense that Rockies fans would be unfamiliar with rules regarding playoff roster construction.

With the Rockies in good playoff position and Dexter Fowler headed to the disabled list, there were a lot of questions and confusion, understandably. Tracy Ringolsby emailed me, by his own initiative, in an effort to clear up the rules for all of our readers. The following is straight from the Cowboy.

"The requirement to be on the post-season roster is that you are in an organization by Aug. 31."
"If you have 25 players on active roster and no one on DL, those 25 are your post-season players."
"If a team has [X number of players] on the DL, it expands the choices they can make for filling out the post-season roster. At the end of the season, when the team puts together its post-season roster, they can replace any player on the disabled list at season's end with a player who was in organization as of Aug. 31, even if he wasn't in the big leagues. For example, Mark Redman replaced Rodrigo Lopez, I believe it was, in 2007."
The preceding rule makes no dichotomy between players on the 60-day DL and 15-day DL. Any member of the DL can be replaced by any player in the organization by August 31.
"You could add someone not on the 40-man, although that would be unusual because if you felt he could help you it would seem likely you had him around in September in some type of role."

Amoeba mentioned in the comments of the Dexter Fowler fanshot that any member sent down could be called up when rosters expand Sept 1, regardless of how long they were away from the big league team. Ringolsby clarifies that this is not the case:

"In recent years a couple adjustments were made regarding roster moves and Sept. 1."
"It used to be that a player sent to the minors could be called up as soon as rosters expanded, even if the player hadn't spent 10 days in the minors. But that is now changed and a player has to stay either 10 days or until the minor-league team's season is over, including the playoffs."
"It used to be that a player on the DL could be activated Sept. 1 even if he hadn't spent the full 15 days but the rules were changed so that you now are supposed to spend the full 15 days, according to MLB official I asked."

This means that Dexter Fowler will indeed be away from the Rockies for 15 days, making him available to return September 9 in the third game of a home series vs. the Reds. Most important to note, the Rockies currently have seven players on the disabled list, giving them seven spots to "play with."

Colorado Rockies Injuries

15-Day

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Aaron Cook	shoulder	08/22/2009
Dexter Fowler	knee	08/25/2009
Juan Rincon	elbow	07/31/2009

60 Day DL / Out for the season

Player	Injury Type	Injury Date
Jeff Francis	shoulder	03/27/2009
Taylor Buchholz	elbow	03/27/2009
Manuel Corpas	elbow	07/21/2009
Alan Embree	leg	07/11/2009

Sunday Rockpile: Russ Ortiz tries for 2007 Mark Redman impression, Jason Giambi, Tim Lincecum and more

Rox Girl — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 16:12:24 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

5 months ago: Houston Astros' Russ Ortiz delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Washington Nationals in a baseball game in Houston, Thursday, July 9, 2009. (AP Photo/Pat Sullivan)

Browse more photos »

First of all, in case you've missed the various discussions about the team's coming acquistions:

Rockies to sign Ortiz; Giambi deal close | ColoradoRockies.com: News

Yep, Russ Ortiz. You can probably put his name in the Purple Row search box to see my feelings about him as a pitcher, but the Redman precedent has taught me never to underestimate the power of Dinger hexes in making crummy pitchers good for us for a little while. We'll need a particularly strong one for this case, though.

That Rocktober feeling coming back, but don't think Rockies are the big dog in town just yet

If you need any confirmation where Denver's sports loyalties lie, check out the Post website's front page this morning. One team loses a meaningless exhibition while another wins a key contest over a rival with serious playoff implications. Guess which is more newsworthy to Denver fans? I'm not blaming the Post's editors for this, they know what's going to sell them newspapers, and it might take another couple of playoff teams for the Rockies to be more important than the Broncos preseason in the city.

Kiszla: Intoxicating feel returns to Coors - The Denver Post

Meek vs the Freak?

This afternoon the Rockies play against the best pitcher in baseball for the first time this season, but as Andrew Baggarly notes in the San Jose Mercury News, there's respect, but not much fear among Rockies hitters about the task in front of them. Well, this Patrick Saunders article indicates maybe a little worry from Ian Stewart, but the way Stewart had been hitting before last night's game tying HR, Russ Ortiz would probably make Stewart nervous to face.

Rockies still wishing NL would adopt DH rule for this season

Smith continues to produce for Rockies in a pinch role - The Denver Post

I wish there was a good way to acknowledge the great work Seth Smith has done as a pinch hitter for the Rockies this season without implying that's his calling in life. Smith's a professional hitter, capable of being an above average starter as a corner outfielder. The Rockies have four such players, but like every other team, only three slots for them. They also have Ryan Spilborghs and three more outfielders in AAA or AA that are capable of being quality MLB reserves. It's an embarrassment of riches which could help the Rockies come World Series time.

The Rockies lead the NL in pinch hitting production at .305/.414/.525 and second place, Atlanta at .257/.402/.407 isn't particularly close. Smith, in 41 pinch hit plate appearances has more extra base hits (8) than Milwaukee's entire team does (7) in 174 pinch hit PA's.

Other:

The Rockies made the trade of the season before the season says the LA Times.

Moss: Rox success dances to a Latin rhythm - The Denver Post

Renck: Red-hot Texas defines cool - The Denver Post

Matzek, the 11th overall pick, said he was eager to make it back to cavernous Coors Field, which the humidor has helped turn into a decent pitcher's park, saying: "My philosophy is if they can't hit it, they can't hit it far."

From the USA Today write up of our signing of Tyler Matzek.

Trend Spotting: Royals Actually Involved in All-Star Game?

royalsreview — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 19:46:15 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Browse more photos »

While Royals fans are understandably upset that Zack Greinke won't be starting tonight's All-Star Game, he's a lock to pitch at least an inning. He's been a story all week, and he's rightly earned a reputation as one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's going to a prominent part of the early stages of tonight's game. This is now something of a minor trend, dare we say. Last year, in the 2008 All-Star game, Joakim Soria faced nine batters in the 11th and 12th innings, playing a huge role in an eventual American League victory.

It hasn't always been like this.

In fact, prior to Soria's appearance, the Royals went two straight games without an actual appearance, and nearly twenty years without a single meaningful contribution to the game.

Amazingly, prior to Soria's appearance, no Royal had pitched in an All-Star game since 1999. The record of position players is even worse: no Royal has recorded a hit in the All-Star game since 1989. Hell, a Royal position player hasn't even appeared in the field since 2002. Since 1990, Royal hitters are 0-8 in the Game.

Since the nineties began, Royal All-Star Game history is a long string of did not plays, random pinch-hitters who didn't even make it onto the field defensively, and a handful of pitching performances, nearly all over ten years ago. (After the jump, you'll find a complete listing of what Royal representatives have done in this Hopeless Era.) For the last two decades, the collective imprint the Royals have left on the All-Star Game is comparable to the impact that Northern Ireland has had on the development of reggae.

In this context, Greinke suddenly starting the game, though in many ways simply a ceremonial honor, would have been truly incredible. Maybe not as incredible as the fact that Mark Redman made the team once, but incredible.

Here's the rundown of futility:

2007: Gil Meche named, did not play.
2006: Mark Redman named, did not play.
2005: Mike Sweeney named, struck out as a pinch-hitter in the 7th.
2004: Ken Harvey named, struck out as a pinch-hitter in the 3rd.
2003: Mike MacDougal and Sweeney named, neither appeared.
2002: Mike Sweeney named, replaced Paul Konerko at 1B in the 7th inning, flied out to right in the 9th inning.
2001: Mike Sweeney named, replaced Jason Giambi at first in the 8th inning, flied out to right in the 8th inning.
2000: Jermaine Dye voted to start, Mike Sweeney named. Sweeney pinch-hit for James Baldwin in the 4th, reaching on an error. Sweeney did not appear in the field. Dye walked once and struck out.
1999: Jose Rosado named and pitched a scoreless 4th.
1998: Dean Palmer named, and pinch-hit for John Wetteland in the 8th, grounding into a double play.
1997: Jose Rosado named. Rosado allowed one run in the 7th inning, tying the game at 1-1. However, in the bottom of the 7th the AL re-took the lead on a Sandy Alomar HR. Thanks to the eternal genius of the pitcher wins rule, Rosado was then credited as the eventual "winner" of the game.
1996: Jeff Montgomery named, did not appear.
1995: Kevin Appier named, actually throwing two perfect innings (the 3rd and 4th).
1994: David Cone named, somewhat disastrously. Cone allowed three runs over two innings, contributing to a 8-7 AL loss.
1993: Jeff Montgomery named and appeared, pitching a scoreless 7th.
1992: Jeff Montgomery named and appeared, allowing two runs in two-thirds of an inning pitched.
1991: Danny Tartabull voted to start at DH, going 0-2 with a strikeout. Tartabull was replaced by Harold Baines in the 6th inning.
1990: Brett Saberhagen named, pitching two scoreless innings (5th and 6th), and was named the winning pitcher in a 2-0 AL victory.
1989: Bo Jackson voted a started and Mark Gubicza named to the squad. Bo famously led off the bottom of the first with a homer. Bo went 2-4 with a steal and was named the game's MVP. Gubes pitched a scoreless 4th inning.

The Vigilant Month Lies Ahead, NL Playoff Contenders need to avoid the traps of July

Rox Girl — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 04:51:10 -0000

First, some "on this date..." sort of history. The following links are how the major leagues have looked through games on June 27 in each of the last five seasons. The great thing about Baseball Reference's pages is that it includes the team's records after that date as well, so we can look at what makes the playoff teams tick, and why the also-rans prove pretenders.

June 27, 2004

I want to take a close look at the AL Central in this season, as I think this shows where WolfMarauder was coming from in a discussion we had in last night's game thread. Whereas I was saying a team's performance in the first half is usually helpful in predicting the second half, this is a classic example of how that's not always the case. Minnesota, much like the Giants this season, had a start where their solid record seemed to indicate they were playing over their heads. If everything was completely predictable, we'd have expected them to come back to the pack in the second half. Instead they went 51-37, and it turned out that the won/loss record itself was more predictive of what that team was capable of than the runs scored/allowed were. In the NL, the Brewers were 41-34 after sweeping the Rockies at Coors Field to close out June, just 3.5 games back. By the trade deadline at the end of July, they were 50-53 and 16 games behind. The next few weeks will see some teams slip rapidly out of the chase.

June 27, 2005

Huston Street and the A's had actually started their great run of the summer of 2005 right about the time the Rockies started their run this year. On the morning of May 30, Oakland was 17-32, 12.5 games out of first. By June 27, they were 35-40, having gone 18-8 and just sweeping the Giants with a 16-0 slaughter. By the end of the season, they were 88-74, having gone 70-42 over their last 112 games. They wound up seven back after briefly tying for the division lead on September 15th and tiring out down the stretch run.

June 27, 2006

Look at how the Rockies tanked for the rest of this season after being in a pretty good spot in the first half. The reason was losing 11 out of 12 just before and after the All-Star break where the team went 0-9 in games decided by two runs or less. One bad stretch was all it took to derail everything in what could/should have been the team's first successful season of a longer run, but instead the team proved to be the pretenders that most outside pundits had suspected at this point in the year. They made one more dash to within a couple of games of the NL West lead, but similarly to last night's game for the A's, it was an empty threat.

June 27, 2007

Of course, this was the complete opposite of 2006, where the Rockies were able to stay close long enough to put together the one outstanding run which proved them playoff worthy. But look closely at what happened to Milwaukee this season. On this date the team had a 7.5 game lead in the Central but went on a 3-7 road trip leading into the All-Star break, with their lead already whittled down to 4.5 games. By the time they got swept at St. Louis at the end of July, the Brewers lead had been cut down to one game. Of course they could only play spoiler for the Padres the last weekend of the season. I'm not saying anything, but how many games are the Dodgers ahead of the Rockies right now?

June 27, 2008

Don't tell Mets fans this, but their team didn't actually choke at the end of the season in 2008, they choked in the beginning. A .602 winning percentage in the last three months of the year would have been more than enough had the team gotten off to a start better than 31-34. They're slightly better than that right now in 2009, but looking at the very real threat of getting sifted out of a viable position to rally in the next few weeks due to injury. The lesson at the end of this 2008 season for the Mets and the aforementioned 2005 A's team might be of some concern to the Rockies, though. Sometimes a team can work so hard to catch up to a frontrunner that they "forget" to close out the deal. The 2007 Rockies team didn't have time for this to happen because they caught up on the last day possible, should the Rockies catch the Dodgers somehow this season, they've got to be careful to avoid the let-up in intensity that some teams seem to face.

So let's take a look at right now (well, through yesterday's games at BB-Ref):

June 27, 2009

What we know will happen:

Some teams will fade, some will surge going forward.

What we don't know for certain:

Which teams are which. This was WolfMarauder's primary point last night. There will almost always be some surprise team making a comeback or run, some powerhouse that falters. That said, not every team is created equal right now. Some are better than others.

So keeping in mind that there's no guarantee for any of the following, let's go to the next step,

What we can be reasonably confident about:

Regression

- the Dodgers will still win more than they lose, but they're unlikely to win with the frequency they have up to this point. Similarly the Nationals will still lose more than they win, but their win percentage should drift a little closer to .500 going forward in 2009.

While what the Nationals do might not matter to the Rockies too much (save for the fact we have six games left to play against them) there is, for the moment, plenty of reason to take hope in that point about the Dodgers. The Rockies current run only has made them even with LA when it comes to records since Manny Ramirez's suspension. We were 8.5 games behind them on May 8, we're 8.5 games behind them now. Even so, we can take comfort in knowing that a strong series in Los Angeles this week could actually put the division title back in play, even with Ramirez coming back for them. Of course, the flip side is that getting swept in Los Angeles should finally put a flatline to our NL West hopes for this year, even after all that work by the valiant paramedics to recover a pulse. Regression will hit the Rockies too, they can't sustain the pace they've been on since Tracy took over forever, it's just a matter of who gets hit harder and sooner, the Dodgers or Rockies.

For the moment I'm going to put this aside, I think the end of July will tell us where things really stand with the West if this week doesn't. I'm hoping the Rockies are with striking distance then, but not counting on it.

What we can be a little less confident about, but is still probably true:

"...I don't sense a lot of activity this year. Too many teams are in the hunt. The Colorado Rockies were out of it, then won 11 in a row. Every club likes to think it can do that and get back in the race."

Brewers GM Doug Melvin to MLB.com's Hal Bodley

Certain teams are faking it at this point, and we can be at least somewhat confident that the Rockies aren't one of them. As the link theoldgrizzlybear gave to Jayson Stark in yesterday's Rockpile points out, while every club likes to think it has a run like the Rockies in them, Melvin's implication in the above quote, that most clubs are deluding themselves in this thought, is true. Runs don't happen to everybody and they seem to happen more frequently with certain teams than others.

To make a surge like that requires more than just a run of good luck, although that certainly plays a big part in it. All the basic elements of a strong baseball team have to be in place. Solid pitching, both starting and in relief, and especially a strong, deep lineup, and a quality bench.

I'm going to posit that while pitching is important for establishing a quality team, scoring typically drives the big streaks. It might be good to remind people that our starting rotation at the end of 2007 was Franklin Morales, Jeff Francis, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Fogg and Mark Redman. Two journeymen, two rookies, and Francis. It doesn't take a genius to figure out it wasn't the talent level of our starting pitching that gave us the final push to the playoffs that season, even though these five pitchers did provide quality work. You look at Philadelphia both late in 2007 and 2008 and see the same story, hitting rich, pitching thin.

To further note this, in their last thirty games, the Rockies have scored seven or more runs nine times. The Giants have done this just four times. Meanwhile, the Giants have scored two runs or less seven times in the last thirty games, while the Rockies have done it four times, albeit not once since losing to Houston on June 2 and starting their remarkable run. To put it bluntly, the Giants simply haven't shown the offense to put together a streak like the one the Rockies just did. To this point, we also haven't seen any signs of that kind of surge generating offense from the Reds, Braves, Astros, or believe it or not, the Cubs in 2009. I'm going to keep the Cubs and Giants in the discussion today, but eliminate the other three teams to save myself some work. I'll probably revisit this topic a month from now, and if any of them have legs to stand on then, they'll be included in the next round.

Lineups:

Here are the ZiPS projected wOBA's for each contending team's primary starters for the remainder of the season, I have put the trailers in italics, and the projected leaders in bold font:

Position	Cubs	Mets	Phillies	Rockies	Giants	Marlins	Brewers	Cardinals
Catcher	.371	.313	.327	.373	.314	.312	.299	.312
1st Base	.367	.362	.401	.389	.318	.342	.416	.455
2nd Base	.259	.321	.411	.332	.313	.356	.312	.332
3rd Base	.386	.413	.314	.365	.351	.284	.315	.315
Shortstop	.284	.367	.338	.355	.314	.412	.334	.315
Left Field	.352	.342	.377	.350	.332	.316	.417	.342
Center Field	.342	.397	.351	.326	.347	.353	.345	.322
Right Field	.381	.347	.364	.389	.340	.355	.346	.359

Chicago Cubs: ZiPS believes that Geovany Soto, Alfonso Soriano and Milton Bradley will all bounce back from their first half slumps, and with the return of Aramis Ramirez some time in July, there's substantial reason to see the Cubs as a better team than their current position in the standings would indicate. But there are issues here, particularly with relying too much on Soriano and Bradley, that when added to their current holes in the middle infield and decent competition leave me more doubtful that they've got another playoff run in them in 2009. There is a lack of star level offense in this lineup to begin with, but that's especially true if players continue to underperform. If I had to pick a team expected to perform at a playoff level in 2009 at the beginning of the season that I now thought would be the biggest disappointment, just by looking at the lineups, for me it would be this one, not the Mets.

New York Mets: New York looks like a formidable offense when healthy. Wait. Those last two words of the previous sentence are pretty important right now. Three key components to this offense are on the shelf, and their replacements leave the team vulnerable to the kind of mid-season collapse that hit the 2006 Rockies. But there are other issues at play here, too. While the team won't be at full strength when the Dodgers come to town before the All-Star Break, the Mets could be operating on all cylinders in time for the Rockies visit at the end of July. If you look at that offense at full strength, there's just one real weakness at catcher, and if their backstops get hot. They are definitely capable of an extended run, the question is whether that full health will ever completely come about as a lot of these parts outside of Wright and Reyes are on aging wheels that might fall off at any moment.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies main issue remains with their pitching staff, everybody can see this, but the offense has proven more than capable of keeping the team afloat so far. This same offense was what drove the Phils dramatic runs to overtake the Mets in each of the last two seasons.

"No one's out there dealing anybody or wanting to part with anybody because the pitchers who are available are, one, hurt, and two, pitching for teams that don't think they're out of the race yet," (Ruben) Amaro told Philled In. "I know because I've asked about every one of them."

From Phillies beat writer Scott Lauber's blog

Colorado Rockies: As with the Cubs, there's a lack of star power (over .400 wOBA) according to the projections, but unlike the Northsiders, the Rockies have the best all around offense among these teams, and make up for it with plenty of depth. I used Ryan Spilborghs' projection in left instead of Seth Smith (.374 projected wOBA) which would make it look even better or Carlos Gonzalez (.293),who would represent a hole unless he outperforms expectations as he's capable of. This won't be statistically satisfactory to a lot of people, but a big issue with the Rockies is complacency. They've shown over the last month what the team is capable of, but why exactly were they turned off in the first place? Jim Tracy has done a great job of motivating them to this point, but they can't afford another lull like the one they started the season with. There will be slow stretches in the second half, the team can't let them turn into extended slump.

San Francisco Giants: The Rockies have scored 129 runs in their last 21 games, the Giants have been on a pretty decent run themselves in that time, going 12-9. Their runs scored? 80. The Giants best 21 game stretch as far as runs scored this season? 97, which they've done twice. Since 2005 at least (that's as far back as I've checked so far) there hasn't been an NL playoff team without at least one 21 game stretch of scoring 120 runs or more. Even the 82-80 2005 Padres team did it. This San Francisco squad is not a team capable of taking off. If they are going to make the playoffs, it will be like a tortoise rather than a hare. I'm not saying it's impossible, I just don't like their chances. If other teams get significantly ahead of them, ahem, I mean you, Rockies, the Giants are going to have a Dickens of a time making up ground.

Giants center fielder Aaron Rowand says that his team hasn't given up on overtaking the Dodgers. "The wild card is not the goal," Rowand said, and Giants GM Brian Sabean agreed, saying, "We've got to find a way to get closer to first place."

From John Perrotto's Weekend Wrap at Baseball Prospectus (subscription required)

Florida Marlins: I know that this is the team in the rearview that's making Mets and Phillies fans more nervous than the Braves right now. It's why I'm including them instead. They have what I'm just going to call an "NL East Lineup" that has a batting star (Mets and Phillies each have two), a couple other solid players, but also significant holes to fill. Should they make a trade for another bat, they have a quality pitching staff and enough components that I really do see them as somewhat dangerous. Right now, though, I consider them a little short.

Milwaukee Brewers: It's sort of baffling to me that this team is in the position it is, given three well below average lineup slots, but that's what stars the caliber of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can do, I suppose. I think Milwaukee's good enough to hold up in the NL, better than Florida and San Francisco, but they too are flawed enough that they could fade without trade help.

St. Louis Cardinals: If you want to substitute Mark DeRosa's projected .348 wOBA in any of the positions he plays go ahead. The trade definitely seems like it might provide St. Louis some help on offense (realize that most Cardinal fans wouldn't trust the somewhat decent LF projection for Chris Duncan, for instance) and it makes the Cardinals a bit more tricky to get around, but DeRosa can only play one position at a time, and he's possibly a defensive liability at this point in the infield.

Pitching

So while I believe that dramatic runs are created by a team's offense, pitching and defense do supply the bread and butter and strength in these categories should, in theory, provide a cushion to fall back on in rough times with slow but steady returns. Think of the offense like stocks, pitching like bonds or CD's. This is how these eight teams rank in a few pitching metrics:

Team	ERA	FIP	S-tRA	B-tRA
Giants	3.71	3.88	4.28	4.01
Cardinals	3.86	4.05	4.12	4.93
Cubs	3.94	4.36	3.98	4.38
Mets	4.16	4.25	4.97	4.23
Marlins	4.43	4.12	4.86	4.63
Brewers	4.47	4.63	5.36	4.05
Rockies	4.55	4.10	4.27	4.15
Phillies	4.81	4.88	5.45	4.79

Alright, now this is sort of interesting to me. The Cardinals, who have the worst bullen of the eight contenders according to tRA, gave up one of their more promising young relievers to get Mark DeRosa. Granted Chris Perez wasn't performing that well thus far in 2009 because of a lot of walks, but he was a mildly valuable asset from a position of weakness that they sent packing to shore up their bench.

The Giants pitchers are very good, but not nearly good enough right now to make up for the weakness in their offense. Giving up 3.88 runs a game works on the surface, but if RA is only equal to RS, wins more than half the time are going to be hard to come by. What's more, the starting rotation might be a mirage after Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. Randy Johnson (4.87 tRA) and Barry Zito (5.77) both have underlying weaknesses to their pitching lines that foretell trouble ahead, and Jonathan Sanchez has already been replaced. The stellar bullpen has been masking some of that rotational weakness and providing some cover to the offense, but I simply don't think this can last without an upgrade to the lineup.

The Mets, Phillies, Brewers and surprisingly the Marlins have had relatively weak starting rotations thus far. Florida is seemingly given too much credit in this category, more than maybe they deserve. Milwaukee and the Mets have received help from their pens, Florida and Philly not so much.

The Cubs and Rockies are good enough on paper to compete for the rest of the season with their pitching right now, although knowing who he has, I could understand why O'Dowd would be looking for bullpen help. The Cardinals could also be better with stronger relief and the Cubs are having some bizarre drama with the top of their rotation that's probably just smoke from a blowhard media type, but may bear watching.

The Summer Shakeout:

Between now and the week following the All-Star break, it's almost a given that there will be some movement that puts a couple of teams now considering themselves contenders out of the running and separation within divisions should start to occur. We're already seeing it with San Diego and Arizona fading from being reasonably close to the non-Dodger NL West a month ago. As we've seen in the month of June with the Rockies, sweeps seem to happen with more frequency. Thankfully for us thus far, they've been in our favor, because as we saw in 2006, when your team gets swept this time of year, the effects down the road can really be a lot more devastating than might be initially realized.

The Rockies have a relatively easy patch of schedule between when they get back from this week's Dodgers series and when they leave for the Citi-Field matchup with the Mets at the end of July. The Dodgers have a harder road in front of them so the West could see some tightening. It's certainly important, however, that the Rockies use from now until the trade deadline to pass the NL East and Central leaders and get as much separation as possible. Both the Brewers and the Cardinals face the Dodgers next month as well as each other, so those teams could either spread the damage all around or drive one or more teams out of the picture. The Giants have the dreaded ten game post All-Star road trip that has seemingly tripped up so many would be contenders over the last five years, and with it ending at Coors Field July 24-26, the Rockies could be in a position to put San Francisco's thoughts of contention to rest.

Bottom line:

Colorado currently has the best offense/pitching balance of these eight teams. Ooh, big surprise, this is a Rockies blog and I came to that conclusion. How homerific of me. Really though, it's hard to see it any other way. If you've got substantive arguments that point to another conclusion, I'd like to hear them. The reason the Rockies compete against the AL while most of the NL does not, clues us in that this team is constructed well. That said, I think the team has a smaller likelihood of getting significant help via trade than just about anybody else given the budget and Dan O'Dowd's approach as GM.

I think the Mets and Phillies lineups are capable of getting hot and producing major runs to pull out in the second half, but don't like the chances for the other five non-Rockies contenders outside of Milwaukee (see below) to put that kind of hot stretch together. I think the Giants could slowly bludgeon their way into the playoffs with good pitching, but the Cubs have too many teams to pass to be able to do the same right now. If Chicago still wants to compete in 2009, I really think they need to trade for more offense. They have both the young players and money to do so.

Philadelphia and New York are interesting cases. Troy Renck's right that the Mets are flawed, but so are the Phillies, and both in a relatively severe way when it comes to pitching. Both should have the money to be much better than this, and they have the payrolls to suggest they ought to be better, but the teams just seem inefficiently built when it comes down to it. As with the Cubs, these teams have resources, so we'll see who they acquire, but right now, I don't think the Rockies finish behind either team in the standings. The Mets current injury situation pushes the Phillies to the favorite role for the division title if they weren't already there before by virtue of their record and defending victor status.

I look at the Brewers and see the same pitching issue as the two main NL East teams and Milwaukee has deeper holes in the lineup at catcher and the middle infield, so I would think this would preclude them from the teams capable of big streaks. You look at what they did between April 22 and May 19 of this season (a 21-5 record in that stretch) and it proves the lie of that statement, however. Chemistry and some luck helps, I guess. The question, similar to the one we have with the Rockies is whether that team is capable of doing it again. The Cardinals are steady and Albert Pujols gives them something that the Giants or Cubs don't have right now, while they are getting close to the same kind of pitching performance that those two teams have. Right now, especially after the DeRosa trade, I think St. Louis is the favorite in the Central.

At this point, I'm regretting including the Marlins. They're just not as substantive on close inspection, and it's probably a testament to the weakness of the NL East this year that they are deemed the threat that they are. I would be very surprised if they stay a challenger for a playoff spot into August.

Right now if I'm guessing, I think the NL division leaders at the end of July are the same they are heading into the end of June, with the Central division being most in play, while the West could be surprisingly close to most observers outside of Colorado at the end . Besides Florida, look for San Francisco to fade over the next month as well, but if they don't it's probably a sign of destiny and we should lock ourselves in fallout shelters to protect ourselves from having to deal with Giants fans, who carry unpleasant side effects when they're winning.

While I see real weakness with those two teams, I wonder if my thoughts about the Cubs are more a hunch than anything substantial. I do feel that they and the other five teams, Colorado, Milwaukee, St. Louis, Philadelphia and New York, should still be well within a safe contention buffer at the end of July, but the Yankees sweep shows how vulnerable the Mets may be right now, and New York could conceivably be put out of the running before they get back to full strength if the Phillies go on a run and the WC stays ahead of the NL East.

Pirates Still Aren't Close

Charlie — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 19:57:38 -0000

The Post-Gazette editorial page continues its commentary on the Pirates. I'd rather not comment on these sorts of things, but because of the impact a P-G editorial can have on public opinion, I'll add my two cents.

Last week Pirates executives made one of the most controversial trades in years, dealing Gold Glove centerfielder Nate McLouth to Atlanta for three prospects (we were part of the chorus of critics). Yet today the team is only three games under .500 and four games out of first place in the National League Central Division.

In February the Penguins didn't look like contenders either, but the lure of the cup proved all-powerful. Now the Pirates have had a taste. May they, too, take up residency soon in the City of Champions.

I don't know anything about the Penguins, but even I know they came within two games of winning the Stanley Cup last year, have an amazing core of young talent and, moreover, spent several painful years patiently building that core of talent. There probably are lessons the Pirates can learn from the Penguins, but the idea that you should start putting champagne on ice every time you get anywhere near .500 isn't one them.

I'm not sure whether to read the above excerpt as a clueless criticism of the Pirates' current strategy or simple, ho-hum optimism, but just in case it's the former:

At almost this exact point in the year 2005, the Pirates beat the Devil Rays, giving them an actual .500 record, with 30 wins and 30 losses. They still lost 95 games that year, and that shouldn't have surprised anyone, because instead of looking at 60 games and assuming the results represent the team's true level of ability, a smart observer will, y'know, look at who's actually on the team. The 2005 Pirates started the year with Matt Lawton, Daryle Ward, Jose Castillo in Benito Santiago in their starting lineup and Tike Redman as the third hitter in their order. They also had Kip Wells, Josh Fogg, Mark Redman and Dave Williams in their rotation. They were .500 after 60 games, yes, but does that look like a championship-caliber core? Did the Pirates fail to win it all that year simply because "the lure" of a title was something less than "all-powerful"?

Then in 2006, the Pirates played 37-35 baseball after the All-Star break. That didn't stop the 2007 team from losing 95 games yet again, despite the much-ballyhooed offseason addition of Adam LaRoche. Again, talent matters. A bad team can sustain a run of passable baseball for a while. That doesn't mean it's headed for the World Series.

The Pirates are currently three games below .500. They aren't as bad as they've been in past years, but they still don't have enough offense, frontline starting pitching, or relief pitching. And here's a big secret: being three games below .500 this year is not much of an accomplishment. The Pirates are currently last in their division, and it's very hard to leapfrog five other teams, especially when two of them have as much talent as the Cubs and Brewers do. The Bucs are on pace to win 77 games, which frankly is nothing to write home about, even if it's much better than they've been the past several years. And that pace is actually better than it was before they traded McLouth. As someone who watches the games, I'm happy to see the Pirates doing a better job throwing strikes and playing defense. But they're still miles from where a contender should be, and I hope the front office will continue its business of rebuilding the organization from the ground up.

Draft Day Open Thread

Jesse — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 12:00:17 -0000

Round 1 Archives
Pick 1: Washington Nationals, Stephen Strausburg, RHP
Pick 2: Seattle Mariners, Dustin Ackley, CF/1B
Pick 3: San Diego Padres, Donavan Tate, CF
Pick 4: Pittsburgh Pirates, Jorge Sanchez, C
Pick 5: Baltimore Orioles, Matthew Hobgood, RHP
Pick 6: San Francisco Giants, Zack Wheeler, RHP
Pick 7: Atlanta Braves, Mike Minor, LHP
Pick 8: Cincinnati Reds, Mike Leake, RHP
Pick 9: Detroit Tigers, Jacob Turner, RHP
Pick 10: Washington Nationals, Drew Storen, RHP
Pick 11: Colorado Rockies, Tyler Matzek, LHP
Pick 12: Kansas City Royals, Aaron Crow, RHP
Pick 13: Oakland Athletics, Grant Green, SS
Pick 14: Texas Rangers, Matt Purke, LHP
Pick 15: Cleveland Indians: Alex White, RHP
Pick 16: Arizona Diamondbacks: Bobby Borchering, 3B
Pick 17: Arizona Diamondbacks: A.J. Pollock, CF
Pick 18: Florida Marlins: Chad James, LHP
Pick 19: St. Louis Cardinals: Shelby Miller, RHP
Pick 20: Toronto Blue Jays: Chad Jenkins, RHP
Pick 21: Houston Astros, Jiovanni Mier, SS
Pick 22: Minnesota Twins, Kyle Gibson, RHP
Pick 23: Chicago White Sox, Jared Mitchell, CF
Pick 24: Los Angeles Angels, Randal Grichuk, RF
Pick 25: Los Angeles Angels, Mike Trout, CF
Pick 26: Milwaukee Brewers, Eric Arnett, RHP
Pick 27: Seattle Mariners, Nick Franklin, SS
Pick 28: Boston Red Sox, Reymond Fuentes, CF
Pick 29: New York Yankees, Zack Heathcott, CF
Pick 30: Tampa Bay Rays, LeVon Washington, 2B
Pick 31: Chicago Cubs, Brett Jackson, CF
Pick 32: Colorado Rockies, Tim Wheeler, CF

With the draft about to kick off, here's MLB.com's revised Top 10 boad

Washington: Stephen Strausburg, RHP
Seattle: Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF
San Diego: Donovan Tate, OF
Pittsburgh: Tony Sanchez, C
Baltimore: Zack Wheeler, RHP
San Francisco: Tyler Matzek, LHP
Atlanta: Mike Minor, LHP
Cincinatti: Alex White, RHP
Detroit: Shelby Miller, RHP
Washington: Drew Storen, RHP

The 2009 amateur-entry draft kicks off tonight at 5pm central time. We'll have coverage tonight of the Twins top picks. In the mean time, feel free to kick around a little discussion.

There's been a lot of talk about Minnesota drafting a prep pitcher in the first round, something they haven't done since 2004 with Kyle Waldrop and Jay Rainville

20 Years of Twins 1st-Round Picks
2008: Aaron Hicks
2008: Carlos Gutierrez
2008: Shooter Hunt
2007: Ben Revere
2006: Chris Parmelee
2005: Matt Garza
2005: Henry Sanchez
2004: Trevor Plouffe
2004: Glen Perkins
2004: Kyle Waldrop
2004: Matt Fox
2004: Jay Rainville
2003: Matt Moses
2002: Denard Span
2001: Joe Mauer
2000: Adam Johnson
2000: Aaron Heilman
1999: B.J. Garbe
1998: Ryan Mills
1997: Michael Cuddyer
1997: Matt LeCroy
1996: Travis Lee
1995: Mark Redman
1994: Todd Walker
1994: Travis Miller
1993: Torii Hunter
1993: Jason Varitek
1993: Mark Barcelo
1993: Kelcey Mucker
1992: Dan Serafini
1991: David McCarty
1991: Scott Stahoviak
1990: Todd Ritchie
1990: Midre Cummings
1989: Chuck Knoblauch

Draft Trivia:

In the 17th round of the 2000 draft, the Twins drafted Paul Maholm. Maholm went to college, and three years later was drafted in the 8th round by the Pittsburgh Pirates. He's now one of their young, premier players, who's contract was likely a starting point for the long-term Scott Baker deal.
Another 17th round draft pick, J.J. Putz in 1998, went back to college for a year before being drafted in the sixth round the following season. He's a bit of a head case, but for a short period was one of the game's premier closers.
1997 wasn't just a good draft for the Twins, producing a small handful of regulars for future seasons (including J.C. Romero and Michael Restovich), but it was also a draft of fate. Nick Punto was drafted in the 33rd round, but re-entered the draft. Adam Johnson was selected in the 25th round, only to re-surface three years later as the team's number one pick. Kevin Frederick was drafted in the 34th round of the 1998 draft by the Twins, but the season before they'd chosen him in the 17th round.
In the 33rd round of the '96 draft, the Twins selected Mike Lamb. Another one to return to the draft, he'd return 12 years later.
Minnesota actually selected Emil "Drop It Like It's Hot" Brown in the 37th round of the 1993 draft. In retrospect, the world rejoiced when he let the Athletics draft him in '94.
Twenty years ago, in addition to Knoblauch, the Twins also drafted Marty Cordova, Denny Neagle, Scott Erickson, Mike Trombley and Denny Hocking. They all played major roles with the team at some point in their careers, even Neagle: he and Midre Cummings were later traded for John Smiley.

Poll

How will the Twins draft for their first pick?

Prep Pitcher

39 votes

College Pitcher

44 votes

Prep Position Player

16 votes

College Position Player

9 votes

108 votes | Poll has closed

A look back at the 1st round of the 1995 draft

erik — Wed, 06 May 2009 18:45:08 -0000

Farm-niks rejoice, we're just a little more than a month away from the draft! Last time I did a little retro of the 1994 draft. This time we'll look at the '95 draft. This a much improved draft class than the one that proceeded it, with several all-stars.

In the chart you'll find some relevant info, including whether the player was drafted out of high school or college, as well as their six-year WAR totals. Why six years? Because that is the time it takes before they become eligible for free agency, or, in other words, when they quit being a bargain to the club employing them.

Player	POS	Team	HS/College	WAR
Darin Erstad	OF	CAL	College	19.6
Ben Davis	C	SD	HS	2.9
Jose Cruz	OF	SEA	College	12
Kerry Wood	P	CHC	HS	20.6
Ariel Prieto	P	OAK	Cuba	2.9
Jaime Jones	OF	FLA	HS	0
Jonathan Johnson	P	TEX	College	-0.9
Todd Helton	1B	COL	College	19.8
Geoff Jenkins	OF	MIL	College	13.4
Chad Hermansen	SS	PIT	HS	-3.4
Mike Drumright	P	DET	College	0
Matt Morris	P	STL	College	16.6
Mark Redman	P	MIN	College	9.1
Reggie Taylor	OF	PHI	HS	-0.4
Andy Yount	P	BOS	HS	0
Joe Fontenot	P	SF	HS	-0.8
Roy Halladay	P	TOR	HS	19.8
Ryan Jaroncyk	SS	NYM	HS	0
Juan LeBron	OF	KC	HS	0
David Yocum	P	LAD	College	0
Alvie Shepherd	P	BAL	College	0
Tony McKnight	P	HOU	HS	1.1
David Miller	1B	CLE	College	0
Corey Jenkins	OF	BOS	HS	0
Jeff Liefer	3B	CHW	College	-2
Chad Hutchinson	P	ATL	HS (did not sign)	0
Shea Morenz	OF	NYY	College	0
Michael Barrett	C	MTL	HS	-2.9
Chris Haas	3B	STL	HS	0
Dave Coggin	P	PHI	HS	0.2

Despite an on again, off again relationship with the disabled list, Kerry Wood produced the most of any of the first rounders during his first six years.
For some reason, Cuban emigre' Ariel Prieto had to go through the draft. Anyone remember why? Regardless of why, the pick didn't really pan out.
It was a great year for college hitters. Todd Helton, Darin Erstad and Geoff Jenkins all become all-stars. Todd Helton obviously turned out to be head-and-shoulders better than Erstad and Jenkins, but for a while there, Erstad and Jenkins were mostly pretty good ballplayers. Jose Cruz was another solid college position player. Helton, Cruz and Erstad all had the common denominator of being rather excellent defenders.
Terrible year for high school hitters.
High school pitchers are typically the riskiest of picks. Two panned out - Halladay and Wood - out of six, but together they gave the HS pitcher class an average WAR of 1.14 per season proving that sometimes it's good to gamble on upside.
Speaking of Halladay...Mark Redman. Over Roy Halladay. Over Roy Halladay!?!
I didn't know if I should have counted Hutchinson. I mean, he didn't sign so he didn't cost the Braves any money, but he cost them a pick. He didn't contribute to the Cardinals either, who drafted him a year later. For that matter, he didn't help the Cowboys, either.
Helton has 54 WAR and counting. He slugged under .400 last year and played in only 83 games, but seems to be back to his old ways. He's 35 and signed through 2011, with a club option through 2012. 63-65 WAR for his career doesn't seem out of reach, which would put him up there in Hall of Fame consideration, but I have serious doubts Cooperstown will ever come calling.

Averages for each group:

Group	#	Total WAR	Avg. Per Season
College Hitters	7	62.8	1.5
HS Hitters	9	-3.8	-0.07
College Pitchers	6	24.8	0.69
HS Pitchers	6	40.9	1.14

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 14:53:46 -0000

Some things to read while waiting to see if it's a good mail day.

Is the Brewer front office the only group of people in baseball who don't realize their starting rotation has a depth problem? The team has stated for weeks now that they're not looking to spend big money on a starter, and that's fine, but now Ken Rosenthal reports they're also not interested in offering minor league deals to veteran starters like Mark Redman and Victor Zambrano or reclamation projects like Kris Benson and Jason Jennings. (h/t Al) Their interest in Mark Mulder is described as "lukewarm."

Since 2000, the Brewers have used 8, 13, 13, 12, 12, 8, 12, 8 and 8 starting pitchers, respectively. That's an average of about 10 and a half starting pitchers per season for the past nine seasons. Here's the current depth chart for starting pitchers, as I see it:

1. Yovani Gallardo
2. Manny Parra
3. Dave Bush
4. Jeff Suppan
5. Seth McClung
6. Chris Capuano (after May or so, if all goes well)
7. Mark DiFelice
8. Carlos Villanueva

After eight, it becomes anyone's guess, with names like Tim Dillard, Chris Narveson and Lindsay Gulin coming into play. I'm not sure why the front office seems to be in no hurry to add pitchers to this list.

The Brewers agreed to terms yesterday with seven players on their 40-man roster: Dillard, Mitch Stetter, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, Casey McGehee, Brad Nelson and Angel Salome. In a related note, the Brewers recently sent Salome to the 2009 Rookie Career Development Program, and while he was there he was interviewed for MLB.com.

Speaking of interviews, The Sporting News took a few minutes to catch up with Mark Attanasio for a Q and A. They asked him about (what else?) the salary cap (three times), then they had a brief conversation about the Brewers. (h/t BBTF)

I guess there is one advantage to having a fair number of free swingers on your team: The Brewers were below league average in strikeouts looking in 2008.

On the hot stove:

A's: Signed Russ Springer to a deal reported to be worth more than $3 million.
Braves: The team has reportedly stopped pursuing Adam Dunn and will not offer more than a minor league deal to Andruw Jones.
Cubs: will reportedly trade Rich Hill to the Orioles once Baltimore has cleared some space on their 40-man roster to take him.
Dodgers: Spoke to the agents for both Braden Looper and Randy Wolf yesterday.
Giants: Signed Juan Uribe to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.
Mariners: Signed Mike Sweeney to a minor league deal. They may also be considering an 11-man pitching staff.
Marlins: Signed Kiko Calero and Jason Standridge to minor league deals.
Mets: Signed Bobby Kielty, Tony Armas Jr., Matt DeSalvo and Valerio de los Santos to minor league deals.
Orioles: Will not retain Kevin Millar.
Pirates: Signed Paul Maholm to a three-year deal, buying out his three arbitration seasons. The deal also has an option for a fourth year. They're also reportedly ready to sign Eric Hinske.
Red Sox: Jason Varitek, apparently unhappy with the offers he's received as a free agent, is threatening to sit out the 2009 season. (see update)
Reds: May sign Luis Gonzalez to help fill out their bench.
Yankees: We've had several conversations about how this works, but apparently we were all wrong and the Yankees have filled their quota of Type A/B free agents. (see update 2)

UPDATE: ESPN is reporting Varitek has accepted a one-year deal from the Red Sox.

UPDATE 2: Or not. The Yankees can still sign more free agents.

Do you have MLB Network? (I don't.) Are you losing your mind waiting for the first televised spring training games? (I am.) If so, perhaps Caribbean World Series games can help tide you over. The network will have 12 games between February 2 and 7. Odds are my cable company will continue to hold out and I won't see any of them.

Oh, and it appears Rays reliever J.P. Howell can't draw straight lines.

Drink up.

Wednesday Rockpile: Bring back Josh Fogg?

Russ Oates — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 14:48:50 -0000

In his latest blog entry at All Things Rockies, Troy Renck suggests a possible return to Coors for Josh Fogg:

–The Rockies have yet to express interest in free agent starter Josh Fogg. He makes a lot of sense as a late winter signing given that the team always need depth and Fogg is a great clubhouse presence.

I actually like this idea. Bringing him in to offer competition for the back end of the rotation is a good idea. With Cook, Jimenez, and Francis already the beginning and middle of the rotation and Jorge De La Rosa the likely fourth starter, Greg Smith needs to know that he isn't guaranteed that fifth spot. I want him to work during Spring Training; he can't just go out and coast through his starts. There are worse depth signings than Josh Fogg. [cough]Mark Redman[/cough] But I'm not going to be sentimental about Fogg--I was never a big fan of his when he was with the Rockies.

Also, Renck offers his view on signing Orlando Hudson:

–There’s been some chatter that the Rockies will make a play for free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. He would fit based on his energy, personality and production. But I don’t see it. Hudson is going to command a hefty contract in years and dollars, a commitment that’s hard to see the Rockies making given their strong devotion to prospects.

Is that to mean we're going to see Chris Nelson take second base when/if he makes the majors? Because right now, there is no standout second base prospect ready to make the jump to the majors. Clint Barmes and Jeff Baker are already here; Eric Young, Jr. is becoming more of a utility player; and Ian Stewart's future is not at second base. So, if years on a contract is one reason why the Rockies won't pursue Hudson, I'd expect to see Nelson make his debut for the Rockies in a season or two.

Last week, the Chicago White Sox offered $5M to break their lease and leave Tucson. The offer was accepted yesterday. The Rockies are now looking at what to do after their lease expires in 2011.

Back when SB Nation's Driveline Mechanics went live, Rox Girl mentioned that it's probably better for a player not to be written about over there since those pieces highlight problems. Well, if anyone is holding out hope that Stephen Strasburg could fall from the top of the draft to the Rockies, take a gander at this. It might temper some thoughts about him.