SB Nation - Khalil Greene

Brian Giles gets the traditional Padres farewell

Dex — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 08:42:41 -0000

Unless something crazy happens, Brian Giles is done as a Padre. I know this got mentioned last week, but it never really seemed to get discussed. That could also be me just not reading the comments every day. Still, Brian Giles was, to me, the last member left of the first era of Petco Park.

By all accounts, he was a successful Padre and he was a member of successful Padres teams, but in the end, I think he'll go down, like most of the guys who introduced us to Petco Park, as a Padre that people will dislike because he was either weird or they'll feel gypped by him.

Is it strange that Padres fans dislike so many of those guys that opened up Petco for us? Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin left with much of San Diego thinking of them as whiners (though Nevin's got himself a good talk show host thing going). Khalil Greene left as the guy who was fun to watch in the field, but ultimately, the weirdo who never really got around to hitting. Sean Burroughs, with his awkward running style and Golden League power, left even more expectations unfulfilled than any of those other guys. I even remember being excited when we got Ramon Hernandez and then thinking, "Oh. Is that it?"

I look at that '04 team and even though I have fond memories, I also have memories of bad breakups and disappointing exits. Maybe it's my heart's way of protecting me from too many tears already shed.

Maybe, when we say things like, "We should've kept Jason Bay", or "Good riddance, jerk" or "You can go beat women on your own time now", what we're really saying is, "We'll keep you in our hearts", "Travel well, sweet prince" and "I'll miss seeing you hit".

In any case, we have shed our skin of the last bits that remained from when Petco was new and waiting for its history to be written. That part of the history is written now and rather than look back on the weird and whiney with irritation. I will look back with fondness for the eccentricities and passion that those players had.

Good riddance, sweet, princely, jerks.

Random Weekend Question: Favorite/Least Favorite Non-O

Stacey — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 17:00:14 -0000

I saw this question posed as a FanPost on another site and thought it was a pretty good idea for a slow, pre-Thanskgiving weekend. So who's your favorite baseball player that's not an Oriole? Least favorite non-O? Why?

Some of my favorites:

Matt Garza - He seems a little bit insane, and I feel like he's going to be crazy good.
Roy Halladay - I just love everything about him. I saw a rumor the Dodgers are trying to trade for him. That'd be nice because, you know.
Joe Nathan - Once when the Orioles were playing the Twins, Nathan wasn't available because his wife was having a baby. He got to the stadium just as the game was ending and while the Twins were shaking hands on the field he was out on the field in his street clothes handing out cigars and I thought it was the best.
Curtis Granderson - Probably my favorite non-Oriole. I love the way he plays CF, I love how involved he is in the community, I love that he writes a column on Yahoo sports, I love his tall socks, I love it all.

Some Least Favorites:

Ian Kinsler - I feel like he steals Brian Roberts' thunder. And his face bugs me.
Khalil Greene - Remember when people would talk periodically about the Orioles trading for this guy? I never understood it at all and I think started to resent him a little because of it. Why would the Orioles want this guy?
Aaron Rowand - He's not even good! He dives all over the place, so what?
Mark Teixeira - You know why.

Hot Stove kickoff: The Roster Matrix

DanUpBaby — Tue, 20 Oct 2009 10:00:52 -0000

2010 ROSTER MATRIX
2009 EDITION

STARTERS	BENCH	ROTATION	PEN
molina c $4.25m	lugo ut $400K	carpenter rhp $14.5m	franklin rhp $3.25m
pujols 1b $16m	greene ut $400K	lohse rhp $8.9m	mcclellan rhp $400k
schumaker 2b $2.5m	mather of $400K	wainwright rhp $4.65m	motte rhp $400K
freese 3b $400k	jay of $400K	garcia lhp $400k	boggs rhp $400K
ryan ss $400k	pagnozzi c $400K	hawksworth rhp $400k	kinney rhp $750k
craig lf $400k	stavinoha of memphis	lynn rhp memphis	miller lhp $2m
rasmus cf $400k	hoffpauir 2b memphis	walters rhp memphis	reyes lhp $2m
ludwick rf $5.5m			scherer rhp memphis
TOTAL $29.85m	TOTAL $2m	TOTAL $28.85m	TOTAL $9.2m
OVERALL	PAYROLL:	$69.9m

This is, to borrow a phrase from my home state's recent deficit-wrangling, the doomsday matrix; no free agent signings—no minor league free agent signings, for that matter—no long-term deals for players inside our out, no state fair. Luckily for the Cardinals, this skeleton budget is the result of money coming off the books, not being wrung out of it—$17.5 million from Troy Glaus and Khalil Greene, $12 million from Christy Mathewson and Todd Wellemeyer. I borrowed the arbitration guesses from flim's Table of Commitments over in fanposts; other raises, accounting for around $7 million, are due Molina, Carpenter, Lohse, Wainwright, Franklin, and Reyes.

Obviously the team isn't going to look like this, but if the Cardinals pared all the way back this is what they'd get.

Things that won't stand:

The free bench. The infield looks good, though Thurston might take a spot from either Tyler Greene (thereby leaving, I don't know, Jason Motte as the second best defensive shortstop on the club [great arm]) or a middle reliever. The outfield—well, that gets to be a problem, especially if the Cardinals don't spend the bulk of their found money resigning Matt Holliday. Mather is coming off a serious wrist injury, and Jon Jay, who hit .281/.338/.394 in the PCL last year, only wishes he was. I imagine one of the spare outfielders will be making the league minimum, but not both. Catching... well, who knows; La Russa seems to prefer a backup catcher who is established in his mediocrity, but he's made room for a no-hit minor leaguer with an inexplicably good reputation in the recent past.
Allen Craig, starting outfielder. I get the love for Allen Craig, but I'm not sure I'd blame the Cardinals for this one; his MLE last year, in the best season of his career to this point, was still just .278/.319/.440. He deserves every shot at a bench role, and I'd imagine he gets one, but the Cardinals can't cry poor enough to justify going into the season with a converted third baseman whose MiLB slugger credentials are not fully established as their starter in left field, which is not exactly a tough position to fill.
Back-of-the-rotation man-stew. Jaime Garcia should be plugged into the fifth slot, but Hawksworth/Walters et al are just close enough to fifth starter material—fifth starter material being, generally, the stuff they made my Wal-Mart TV stand out of—that the Cardinals should take the chance to fill the fourth spot with one of the relatively high-upside plays Chuck outlined on Sunday. (My personal favorites are Harden [the obvious class of the class, I'd think] and, in lowercase for now, Ben Sheets.)

But this is a solid, cheap base from which the Cardinals can build. If anything, it shows that the Cardinals could theoretically build a team around two high salary guys (say, Pujols and Holliday) and stay above replacement level all the way around. The 2010 Cardinals have, at a glance, four non-bullpen starters who are potentially above average contributors; I have to think that's the baseline for any team employing both Pujols and Holliday. Getting Holliday in the first place made that a little more difficult, but how 2009's draft plays out will be extremely important.

Monday Bird Droppings

Camden Chat — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 11:09:35 -0000

via Your Daily Off-Season O of the Day: Cla Meredith

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Phils rock Dodgers, take 2-1 series lead

I'm pretty sure the Dodgers gave up a run on the ceremonial first pitch. -duck

Another Canadian blog says the O's want John McDonald

"At short, there are the likes of Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Alex Gonzalez, Khalil Greene, Miguel Tejada, Jack Wilson and the Jays' own John McDonald, whom both the Baltimore Orioles and the Philadelphia Phillies have an interest in." Say it with me - We don't want John McDonald. -duck

Yankees' Hairston right at home at game's end

Jerry Hairston Jr., playing in the postseason for the first time in his career, likes the playoffs. Who could have seen that coming? -duck

Astros take 2nd look at Garner

Phil Garner wants a second chance in Houston. He was fired there two years ago. Some guys are just gluttons for punishment. -duck

Look, Buttermaker, you're not my father and I'll not move an inch to play baseball for you any more. So why don't you get back into that sardine can of yours and go, go vacuum the bottom of the Pacific Ocean? I've got business to take care of. You're blocking my customers with your Open Thread.

Playoff Worrying In Particular

DanUpBaby — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 10:30:19 -0000

by Jeff Curry - AP

2 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Troy Glaus (8) leaps over Milwaukee Brewers' Alcides Escobar, as Escobar steals third during the 10th inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009, in St. Louis. The Brewers won 9-7 in 10 innings. (AP Photo/Jeff Curry)

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Anybody can, and does, worry about the playoffs in general. But worrying about particular parts of the playoffs, especially tangentially relevant ones? That's the blogger's job.

No playoff roster surprises yet—Khalil Greene in his second comeback was rendered basically irrelevant by Julio Lugo's arrival and Tony La Russa's reluctance to move past the put-him-in-good-situations point on the comeback trail. From the first of August to the end of the season he'd played fewer than forty innings in the field, which is fewer than Troy Glaus played as a September call-up. The current arrangement leaves the Cardinals without a real backup shortstop, but Greene probably wouldn't have helped matters there, either; his play-by-play numbers, as one would expect of a guy dealing with serious emotional problems, moving on and off the DL, playing sparingly, were... almost as bad as Julio Lugo's.

What it does do is leave the Cardinals—Cardinals fans, really, since there seems to be no real internal debate about it—with an odd positional controversy. How healthy is Troy Glaus?

I don't know if I had any logical reason to be as surprised as I have been, but Glaus's brief comeback has been as spotty as I expected but in a totally different way than I'd anticipated. Some combination of his long, unexpected layoff, his size and shape, and the shoulder problems that were apparently keeping him from throwing three months ago had me expecting a loping slugger, our homegrown version of the PH-only Jim Thome the Dodgers acquired from the White Sox. While his usage did sometimes shake out that way, the results—as with Thome, but not Jason Giambi—were not there.

But his defense, when he was made to play defense, was a revelation. I didn't realize it until Glaus got back—middle infielders have been at the hot corner all year—but when Mark DeRosa plays third base, he looks like a second baseman. He's nimble out there, but his reflexes, his first move in either direction, just aren't natural. Sometimes he just doesn't make them. Glaus is a big, slow, heavy guy, but he moves immediately and aggressively toward balls; that almost-play on a barehander Sunday was something I wouldn't expect DeRosa to make—but it was also, before I saw him play, something I didn't expect New, Sedentary Glaus to make.

Unfortunately, if we're extrapolating from subjective observation and small samples (his UZR/150 is 125.3!) there's also the matter of his slow bat and his 130 professional at-bats in 2009. During his long rehab Glaus struggled at three different levels, peaking in an encouraging-but-not-very .216/.369/.392 at AAA. In the bigs he didn't have much room to work through a slump, if it's a slump, but he certainly hasn't looked as capable offensively as he does defensively. (Not that Glaus has ever looked like a worldbeater.)

So now the Cardinals are in an awkward position, at least if they want to press the issue: Play Glaus for his defense, even though he might not be able to hit? I can't say I ever expected to say something like that.

II.

While we're on the topic—I don't expect this to prove either really important or, in the end, determined in such a way that antagonizes the Viva El Birdos contingent. But B.J. Rains of the mothership knows how to make us worry: suggest that Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer are both candidates for the playoff pen:

The decision to go with 12 pitchers means that two of the four among Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, Todd Wellemeyer and Brad Thompson will be on the playoff roster. Hawksworth and Boggs, both rookies, are the likely choices to make the cut based on their performances and the number of their appearances down the stretch in relation to Wellemeyer and Thompson.

He's right: Brad Thompson hasn't appeared in a leveraged decision since the end of July, and Wellemeyer—well, no. Not Wellemeyer. Hawksworth has shown up twice as often as either of them in the second half of the season, and Boggs's startling bullpen fastball—I haven't seen a bullpen transformation as complete and abrupt as his in some time, no matter where he ends up permanently—is certainly a higher upside play than WonderBrad.

But mentioning it at all, even as a theoretical possibility... it gives me the shakes.

III.

I've saved the most worrisome for last; so finally we've gotten to Joel Pineiro's tentative transformation back into Joel Pineiro. The strikeouts are fine; they're up, actually. The home run rate had to come up eventually, though I didn't expect him to give up 46% of his seasonal home run total in the last month of the year. But his command, the supernatural aversion to walks that characterized the first five months of the Joel Pineiro Comeback Spectacular—gone. Four strikeouts and less than one walk per nine is Christy Mathewson; Four and a half strikeouts and two walks is last season's version of Braden Looper.

That guy is a useful pitcher, even in the playoffs, but for now that's what I'll be expecting, so that when Joel Pineiro turns in a shutout and the Cardinals advance to the NLCS I will be pleasantly surprised.

Playoff Teams Defense Analysis - How They Got There and What to Expect - National League Edition

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 23:18:58 -0000

With the increased emphasis on defense the last few years, I figured I would look at what playoff teams did statistically during the season and what can be expected of the teams in the playoffs. We will begin with the National League and look at the American League in a day or two once Minnesota and Detroit figure who is going. For this analysis, I will be using UZR data from from Fangraphs.com. Fangraphs updates their data on Mondays, so this article doesn't contain the most recent week's fielding data, but should still give a general idea of the teams' defensive strengths and weaknesses.

First, here is the totals of all the NL teams in the playoffs:

As it can be seen, the Phillies defense this season was the best of the four teams with them saving about 40 more runs than the Rockies with the Dodgers and Cardinals just a little better than the Rockies.

Besides the team totals, the UZR can be broken down to individual positions. Here is a comparison of each of the 4 teams by position totals.

The major point I got from this comparison is that most of the teams were rather even except for the holes in the Colorado outfield.

Even though these graphs show how a team did during the season, it doesn't show what to expect in the post season. For example, the Cardinals picked up Matt Holiday at the trading deadline. Matt will be for sure in the Cards lineup and the defense of the previous players shouldn't matter. For each team, I went ahead and calculated the true UZR value of each player projected to start in the playoffs.

For those that need to know, it was a 5-4-3-2 weighted average of season values and regressed to 125 games with no final age adjustment. For example, Albert Pujols had a 1.8 UZR for 2009, but taking into account his previous seasons his true talent level is near 6.4 UZR.

So here is a look at each team's 2009 numbers and the weighted UZR values of the players expected to play during the post season (I will add more as needed - when injuries happen or if I happened to miss someone). These values show the true talent of the fielders better than the small sample set of a single season.

Philadelphia Phillies (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Ryan Howard	1.8
2B	Chase Utley	12.0
3B	Pedro Feliz	8.8
SS	Jimmy Rollins	6.1
LF	Raul Ibanez	-5.6
CF	Shane Victorino	0.1
RF	Jayson Werth	5.7

LA Dodgers (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	James Loney	-1.9
2B	Orlando Hudson	-2.3
3B	Casey Blake	-0.1
SS	Rafael Furcal	0.3
LF	Juan Pierre	1.7
LF	Manny Ramirez	-8.6
CF	Matt Kemp	2.0
RF	Andre Ethier	-5.9

St. Louis Cardinals (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Albert Pujols	6.4
2B	Joe Thurston	0.5
2B	Skip Schumaker	-4.1
3B	Joe Thurston	-0.1
3B	Mark DeRosa	-1.2
SS	Khalil Greene	-2.8
SS	Brendan Ryan	5.3
LF	Matt Holliday	5.1
CF	Rick Ankiel	-2.2
CF	Colby Rasmus	4.5
RF	Ryan Ludwick	1.6

Colorado Rockies (2009 UZR Results and Weighted UZR Values)

Pos	Name	UZR
1B	Todd Helton	2.2
1B	Garrett Atkins	-1.3
2B	Clint Barmes	3.5
3B	Garrett Atkins	-5.6
3B	Ian Stewart	2.4
SS	Troy Tulowitzki	3.1
LF	Ryan Spilborghs	0.9
LF	Seth Smith	2.8
LF	Carlos Gonzalez	1.1
CF	Dexter Fowler	-6.1
CF	Carlos Gonzalez	1.8
RF	Brad Hawpe	-18.1
RF	Ryan Spilborghs	0.1

------------------------------------------------------------------

First, thanks to Justin for supplying the graphics and let me know if any players might be seeing playing time in the first 2 rounds. I am not going to go through all possible lineups once the DH is added and removed in the World Series until two teams qualify.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Reflection

the red baron — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 18:10:08 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

I would write a proper caption, but I could only cheapen the image. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip)

Browse more photos »

Another offensive explosion, another sterling win for our heroes in red, another night of beautiful transit from summer into autumn. The leaves are turning, and that old familiar whisper of excitement is in the air of the city. We've missed it the past two seasons, and sorely. But that whispering, chattering idiot noise of September bliss is back in force now, as those of us born and bred into Cardinal love look to October glory once again.

Or maybe, more correctly, a vibration; a low humming everywhere you walk that has always been and always will be as the days shorten and cool. It begins in March, that hum of anticipation for the season about to begin, and continues on through the summer months, rising and falling with the fortunes of the Cardinals and the red-clad masses who follow. There are peaks and there are valleys; walkoff wins in the night over Chicago and listless losses to Pittsburgh. But it is always always always there, curling around your life until you barely even notice it. Some years that hum fades as the Cardinals fall out of the race, victims of poor planning, poor performance, or poor fortune. Some years the end of summer brings only a sigh, an inward invocation of next season as the year current winds toward its death. Some years that hum falls away with the leaves as their colour finally goes brown and they drop to the ground.

But not this year. No, this year there is a building, a hum that becomes a buzz that becomes a singing that becomes a ringing that becomes a shout. Playoff baseball is coming to St. Louis, and you don't have to look or listen for the anticipation. You only have to feel it.

It was a hell of game last night, one with a little bit of everything we hope to love about this team. There was an outstanding pitching performance. The offense simply overwhelmed the opposition, and the defense stepped firmly down on their necks to keep them from thoughts of rise.

In the whole game, though, the moment which stood out most to me, the key to the game if you will, was Colby Rasmus' plate appearance in the third inning. There were two outs, and Skip Schumaker had just driven in Julio Lugo for the first tally of the game with a single up the middle. It was an outstanding piece of work by Schumaker to begin with, to get the Cards' first baserunner of the game home after Lugo was sacrificed to second base. But the turning point was Rasmus. Behind him was Albert and the middle of the lineup; if Bazardo could just get the rookie, Pujols would have to lead off the fourth.

The count went quickly to 0-2, as Bazardo threw a wicked little changeup for a called strike one and Colby fouled off a fat fastball. The next pitch was another changeup, a little down and a little away, just the sort of pitch you want to see your pitcher throw on a two strike count. It was ohsosweet and tempting, and no one would have been surprised, I think, to see Colby swing. But he didn't. He let it go with a look, and just like that, the most important pitch of the game was taken for ball one. After that, Bazardo tried to clip the outside corner with fastballs, but he had left his paintbrush at home and Rasmus wisely just let the pitches go. Four straight balls and Colby trotted down to first base.

Albert came up with two men on and drove in Skip, and that brilliant bit of baserunning razzle-dazzle by Pujols and Colby plated the Cards' third run. But it was the walk that really created the inning. If Rasmus makes an out there, the inning is but a footnote in the eventual story of the game, one run on a clutch single in the third. Pujols bats leading off the fourth inning, and who knows where the story goes then? But Colby refusing to swing at that 0-2 changeup changed the entire dynamic of the inning. Instead of Albert leading off the fourth, he came to bat with two men on in the third, and Bazardo was forced to face the middle of the order in a scoring situation. And even though Pujols himself proved to be the last official batter of the inning, two more runners crossed the plate before the third out was made. Just a walk on the scorecard, and it seemed like such a small thing at the time, but it shifted the balance to the Cardinals' side, and they took advantage. The run Rasmus scored on he and Albert's running gambit proved to be the difference in the game, in fact.

The Cards could very well clinch tonight, if they can take care of their business and the Cubs cooperate. With that in mind, I thought we might take a moment to catch our breaths before the elation and look back at how we got here.

I think there are five things which really made the most difference for the Cardinals in 2009; five things to stand for all the hundreds of little things that have made it such a rewarding summer in St. Louis. And without further rambling from your author, they are as follows:

1) Fuentes Heads For the Coast

what it was -- Remember, back in the winter of aught eight, when the Cardinals desperately tried to sign a sinister hurler by the name of Brian Fuentes to close games for them? At the time, it seemed like the most important move anyone has ever made in the history of the game to many fans, fresh off the bullpen disaster that was 2008. When the Cardinals refused to include a third year option on a deal for Fuentes and he signed with the Angels, the bitterness and angst among many was truly awe-inspiring. There was wailing and gnashing of teeth and rending of garments throughout the land -- and by the land I mean the Post-Dispatch boards and talk radio-- as the cries of cheap ownership and foolish General Managership reached a fever pitch. Those of us who believed in the Cardinals' young pitchers and those of us who believed Fuentes to be hugely overrated rallied together in an attempt to quell the uprising, but to little avail.

why it was important -- Brian Fuentes has been, to put it kindly, less than untouchable this season. Sure, he has 44 saves, but he's also blown seven, has given up a hit per inning, and is striking out four batters less per 9 than he did last season. His FIP for the year stands at 4.53, and that 2.24 he put up last year is looking more and more like the fevered dream of a madman. (Or the fevered dream of a contract year, however you like.)

More importantly, Fuentes would have cost the Cardinals at least $8.5 million this season and $9 million in 2010, stretching the payroll much tighter than it was on Opening Day. Fuentes would have been paid three times what Ryan Franklin was to do a worse job closing out games, and there quite likely wouldn't have been enough financial flexibility to make the moves the Cardinals did later in the year. So we can go back and sign Fuentes if you like, but it probably means no Holliday now. History is fun!

2) Franklin Comes Alive

what it was -- This one sort of bookends nicely with the Fuentes deal that wasn't, as the Cardinals received a very surprising performance in the closer role from Ryan Franklin. Debate all you like how good Franklin really is (and I think most of us are well aware he's nowhere near the pitcher he pitched like for quite a bit of the season), but he stepped in to the void at the back of the bullpen and locked it down for a good period of time.

why it was important -- Well, first off, it kept the Cardinals from losing a bunch of games through late-inning collapses, which is primarily what kept them from going to the playoffs last year. Second, on Opening Day, when Jason Motte got the first crack at closing out a game and blew it so magnificently, my father and I looked at each other (I was watching the game at his house), and said, "Here we go again." If Franklin doesn't step in and stabilise the bullpen, I think it's entirely possible Johnny Mo and Co. go into panic mode and make an ill-advised deal to try and bring in an established closer. And honestly, after witnessing the troubles of 2008, it would have been tough to blame them, but the end result could have been disastrous. Thankfully, Franky did the job, and no knee-jerk moves were needed.

3) Stuck in the Middle With Schu -- and Boog

what it was -- It's a little weird now to look back, but at the beginning of the season, the Cardinals' middle infield was desperately unsettled. Skip Schumaker was making a nearly unprecedented transition from the outfield to second base, and Khalil Greene was starting at shortstop. Most of us, myself most definitely included, thought bringing in Khalil was an excellent gamble, but it was still a gamble nonetheless. Unfortunately, K-Bot has gone all William H. Macy in The Cooler on us, leaving the shortstop position wide open. Five months later, Schumaker is a perfectly adequate player at second and Brendan Ryan has taken the shortstop position by force, turning into one of the best defensive shortstops in the league.

why it was important -- Honestly, can you imagine where we would be without Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan? If Schumaker can't pick grounders at even a Dan Uggla sort of level, we likely see Joe Thurston in the lineup every single day. And sure, Thurston's numbers put him in the "much too hated" category, but just think of the sheer number of extra outs the Cards would have made on the basepaths. It boggles the mind.

As for Ryan, you simply can't say enough about what he's meant to this team. If he doesn't take the steps forward he has this season, a) the pitchers all probably have about half a run tacked on to their ERAs, and b) we likely see either a crippled and damaged Khalil Greene trying to play in blood-soaked long sleeves all summer, or Tyler Greene swinging at pickoff throws. Thankfully, both Ryan and Schumaker have done pretty remarkable jobs this year of solidifying the middle infield, keeping us from the horrors that could easily have been.

4) A Carpenter and a Pinata

what it was -- Following a painfully disappointing 2008 for both pitchers, in which Chris Carpenter threw only a handful of innings while trying to come back from elbow surgery and Joel Pineiro earned his El Pinata nickname, 2009 looked a tad worrisome for the Cardinal rotation. Adam Wainwright was seen as the ace, Kyle Lohse the #2, and beyond that, oy. Most thought any innings at all from Chris Carpenter would be a bonus, and we all just wanted Pineiro to go away.

Instead, both pitchers have been outstanding, with Carpenter healthy for the first time since 2006 (minus a ribcage pull, but I mean arm-wise), and El Pinata posting an FIP 1.7 runs lower than in 2008. (4.71 vs. 3.01)

why it was important -- The Cardinals aren't standing where they are today without their rotation, simple as that. Even with the additions to the offense, the Cards still struggle to consistently score runs night in night out, leaving the heavy lifting to the pitchers. Kyle Lohse has had a really awful season, due to both injury and ineffectiveness, and without the contributions of Carp and Pineiro, the rotation would have Wainwright and, um, pray for blight? I can't come up with a good rhyme there. If Carpenter only gives the Cards the ~80 innings many expected and Jo-El is the same guy he is in 2008, this team is, well, the Brewers. Minus the douchebaggery. I hope.

5) Trader Mo

what it was -- After spending his first two offseasons as the helm of the Cardinals trying to clean out the junk from the end of Walt Jocketty's tenure here, Mozeliak had essentially gained himself two reputations. Among those of us who follow baseball very closely and are interested in breaking things down from multiple angles, Mr. Mo was seen as a Hippocratic sort of General Manager, i.e. first, do no harm. He wasn't really doing a lot of good, no, but then again, he also wasn't locking the Cardinals into crippling deals and going all March to the Sea on the farm system, so we were relatively pleased. To the casual fan, though, or even the serious fan less interested in the long-term view, who just wanted to see a winning team, Mozeliak was a do-nothing puppet, the man charged by Bill DeWallet to sit on his hands and save money so they could sell off the team in a couple years. Put simply, they weren't overly fond of Mr. Mo. What was worse, even those of us who thought he was doing a solid job trying to reset the organisation were beginning to get a little antsy.

Fast forward a bit, and the team the Cardinals take into the postseason in 2009 looks very little like the team which took the field on Opening Day, and even less like the team they ended the season with a year ago. Matt Holliday, of course, is the big acquisition, but manning up and going against the field staff to trade Chris Duncan for Julio Lugo may actually be the best move Mozeliak made all year. Bringing in John Smoltz was just gravy. There are, of course, some dark spots, as Mark DeRosa's production likely could have been replicated by an internal candidate, Khalil Greene has had a truly lost season, and in almost all of his trades Mozeliak has seemingly overpaid somewhat.

why it was important -- Simply put, the Cardinals were good enough to win the division or the wild card as constructed at the beginning of the season, but just barely. If everything went right, they were probably an 86-88 win team. If they did squeak into the playoffs, you would have to have expected an early bouncing.

Now, though, the Cardinals could very well be seen as the favourites to win the National League pennant. Personally, I'm still terrified of the Phillies,but not because I think Philadelphia is actually a better baseball team. They just seem to have the Cards' number the past couple years. Regardless, it would surprise no one now to see the Cardinals facing off with whatever AL team makes it through to the World Series at the end of October, and I don't think you can say that before Mozeliak made the improvements to the roster.

Additionally, while I'm not ordinarily a big believer in clubhouse chemistry and other such things, I do think the fact the organisation was obviously trying to obtain help for this team had a positive effect on their play. How many extra wins does that translate to? I have no idea, and wouldn't even hazard a guess. But beyond just how much better the new acquisitions made the team, the players themselves were very appreciative of the improvements made. And yes, winning builds chemistry better than chemistry builds winnings, but it isn't fair to simply dismiss the boost the players got when they saw the cavalry coming over the hill.

It's been a wonderful season, and I'm hoping we have something to celebrate tonight. And yes, I am in full-on jinx mode right now, but I don't care. I'm so excited, and I find myself unable to hide it. Or something like that.

The Baron' Playlist for the 23rd of September, 2009

"Forever Young" -- Alphaville

"The Universal" -- Blur

"Train Song" -- Vashti Bunyan

"All Summer Long" -- The Beach Boys

At least it wasn't the NLDS

DanUpBaby — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 06:59:13 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

I'm not saying that either one of us ([Chris Carpenter and the towel]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

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Let's pull that Ryan Franklin quote again—

I'm not saying that either one of us ([the Cardinals and their fans]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

Yeah, that sounds about right.

This mini-crisis is a great time to considerwhere we are now as to where we were back in April—now that the Cardinals are not completely invincible it's worth thinking about. The bullpen, for instance:

Where we were then: I couldn't find a quote quite representative enough, so if I may channel myself, circa March—

I love this bullpen. Love love love love. There are about a million players in it, and they're all young and cheap, and maybe we should trade Ryan Franklin for a season ticket package or just put him on a bus somewhere with all the other old people so that I can watch all these cost-controlled, thoroughbred right-handers compete for the closer's role. These guys are so crazy and awesome that they flip out ALL the time.

Where we are now:

I'm not saying that either one of us ([the Cardinals relief pitchers, opposing batters]) have been on too much of a high but it brings you back down to where you're supposed to be."

The Cardinals' vaunted relief Whiz Kids have seen attrition from both sides; on one, Jason Motte struggles with throwing the ball past opposing hitters and Kyle McClellan has trouble throwing it near them, and on the other several pitchers are throwing the ball for other teams.

Taken in isolation I can't really argue with either of the major deals that siphoned off relief depth; Mark Worrell and (erstwhile throw-in) Luke Gregerson was a small price to pay for what seemed like an upgrade at shortstop, and Chris Perez and Jess Todd was the going rate for a guy who, for a brief time, seemed like he would upgrade multiple positions at once.

But I don't think either of these trades can be seen as a win for Mozeliak, or even as an extenuating-circumstances draw; these are flat-out misses. In the Khalil Greene deal—my favorite of the two moves, even now, for its ingenuity—Mozeliak bet some of his bullpen strength on a cheap way to upgrade for this year. In that way it resembles a deadline deal, only with a full year of that deadline-deal magic (you know, Al, it really does); there's no potential future benefit to hedge against the flags flying forever. I'd argue that it was a gamble the Cardinals were justified in making, but so far they've gambled wrong on both sides; Khalil Greene hasn't turned into Khalil Greene, and Luke Gregerson—78 K in 65 innings, a .434 OPS against righties—has turned into Russ Springer.

The DeRosa deal has to be looked at in its very fleeting context—after the Greene deal and the Motte/McClellan problems were noticeable, before the Holliday and Lugo deals rendered his positional versatility basically useless. That they cancel each other out seems only fitting for a deal that's a complex win or a complex loss.

The Greene deal meant that the Cardinals could no longer trade from the bottom of their relief deck; the fungible relievers weren't quite so fungible anymore. But their subsequent dealings might be more damaging to the DeRosa rationale; as a straight replacement at third base DeRosa, especially the one they got, was a major offensive improvement but not a worldbeater. During his time with the Cardinals he's been worth a little less than a win over Thurston's year-to-date offensive levels. (Defense—charitably—has been a wash.) That's a good upgrade, as far as deadline deals go, but it's not the one they paid for.

The upgrade they paid for was three-headed—they could put him at third against right handers and pair him with Khalil Greene to spell Skip Schumaker or the Duncan/Ankiel Platoon of Despair that was stuck in left field. Then they traded for Julio Lugo to spell Skip Schumaker; they they traded for Matt Holliday to replace the P.O.D. Then he was the starting third baseman. I appreciate not having to watch Joe Thurston every day, but Chris Perez has proven what we really knew anyway—he's the best of the Cardinals young relievers, and he was traded at a moment when the Cardinals realized they needed them more than they'd thought.

Now the Cardinals have to worry about Ryan Franklin, who is not, it can be said, at this point, finding some new talent level. Over the course of his last two seasons as a Cardinal he's proven himself to be a Pretty Good reliever. Unless some new information comes to light in the next two weeks, that's probably what he's going to be. It's tough having him as your top right-hander, but that's different from having to worry about him if you carry a lead into the ninth inning—most relievers will save most games most of the time. He's not going to go oh-fer a series. The problem is getting the lead to him with the pitchers that are left.

But if you're worried that Franklin might be totally cooked now, your real concern ought to be the rotation—it's Franklin writ large, but with much better players. Certainly Wainwright might really be this good; certainly Carpenter was once this good and this healthy; certainly Joel Pineiro, uh, has had a fine season. But all at once? That's how World Series teams are made, to be honest—lots of players peaking at once, some who you never thought had it in them. But it's only clear that those players kept it together long enough to see their Norm Cash years through in hindsight.

Tonight, of course, Todd Wellemeyer—the stopper—makes it clear that there's no need to worry.

Should Cristian Guzman Move To Second Like Mike Rizzo And Jim Riggleman Asked?

Ed Chigliak — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 17:00:26 -0000

During the recent Blogger's Day interview with DC GM Mike Rizzo and team President Stan Kasten, Steven from FJB asked Mr. Rizzo directly whether or not the Nationals were considering moving Cristian Guzman to second since there had been a notable decrease in the 31-year-old shortstop's range (most clearly his ability to get balls hit to his left) over the last few seasons, and the then-newly-named GM's response at the time was that the team was aware of and monitoring the situation at short, but had not yet reached any conclusions or made any decisions concerning the 2010 Nationals' infield, or in Mr. Rizzo's own words:

Mike Rizzo: "We haven't approached Cristian with any of that, or have we made a decision on that, Cristian, offensively obviously is one of the better middle infielders in the game. Defensively, pretty sure-handed shortstop, although his range at this point is not quite where you want it to be, I haven't approached him about moving to second base, it's a possibility, but the probability is to get one of those two positions in a different way, via free agency, trade, or that type of thing, but we're very cognizant of speed and defense up the middle is vital to a pitching orientated ballclub, which I think we're going to be not only this year and next year..."

According to MLB.com's Bill Ladson's blog post today entitled, "Nats ask Guzman to play 2B in 2010", the Nationals have made a decision, or at least started working toward a resolution. Mr. Ladson is reporting that Mr. Rizzo and "Interim" Manager Jim Riggleman, "...had a private meeting with shortstop Cristian Guzman on Thursday afternoon and asked him to switch to second base for the 2010 season..."

Wait, Rizzo and Riggleman asked about 2010? Whatever...For now, Guzman's response:

No comment.

Uh-oh...(continued after the JUMP)...

In fact, no one is talking about the meeting, as Mr. Ladson notes, writing that:

"In the past, Riggleman believed that a foot injury has hampered Guzman's ability to go to his left, but no one knows how Riggleman feels now because he was not available for comment.

"Both Rizzo and Guzman declined to talk about the possible move to second."

"Guzman was in shock and told them he had never played second base in his life," according to Mr. Ladson's report. In an article at FanGraphs.com, Dave Cameron writes that, "...UZR doesn't exactly agree," with the Nationals' assessment of Guzman's range, but the Nationals have apparently decided they would like to go in a different direction at shortstop next season. It's worth noting that Mr.'s Rizzo and Riggleman met with Guzman "Thursday afternoon" according to Mr. Ladson, so the decision likely has little to do with Ian Desmond's impressive debut. Can the Nationals settle for a rookie shortstop next season, or if Guzman agrees to a move do they have to bring in a free agent? Have you looked at the list of free agent shortstops for next season?

LINKS:

• Guzman's 2009 Stats At Baseball-Reference.com

• Current UZR Ratings for NL Shorstops at FanGraphs.com

• Washington Post - Nationals Journal - "Reading Material, Shopping Lists" - Chico Harlan

"If you're curious, here's the list of potential free agents during the upcoming offseason. The shortstop list includes Orlando Cabrera, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Alex Gonzalez, Khalil Greene, John McDonald, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada and Jack Wilson."