SB Nation - Kevin Kouzmanoff

Season Ticket Holder Night at Petco Park

jbox — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 05:44:48 -0000

Jon and I snuck into the Season Ticket Holder event tonight at Petco. There was a huge line at the entrance, probably 300 people or more. The reason for the line was that every Padre that lives in San Diego in the off season was out front shaking hands and talking to all the Season Ticket Holders. Bud Black, Heath Bell, Tony Gwynn Jr., Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff, David Eckstein, Everth Cabrera and Kevin Correia.

Everybody in line was wearing Padres gear. As we approached the entrance I saw President and COO Tom Garfinkel, so I gave him a wave and in return he gave me a hearty handshake. He asked me what was going on and I just kinda shrugged, "eh, not much". "Just sitting around listening to Dylan?" he asked. We wished each other a Happy Holiday season and moved on through the line.

I gave Everth Cabrera a good handshake and told him I was a big fan, he thanked me. Then I saw Brett and Josh from Padres Media Relations and we exchanged pleasantries. Last we spoke of them Dex was calling Josh a "bastard" in jest because he's a Red Sox fan, I'm glad they didn't take it out on me.

Next on the left was Kevin Kouzmanoff. I'll tell you something I'm not the biggest fan of his, but he was super friendly and seemed really sincere when he thanked us for coming out and he was glad to meet us. He's got to be the most popular player on the team right now, he was cheered every time his named was mentioned tonight. People were walking around with "Keep Kouz" signs, he's a phenomenon.

Padres Employees and Players applaud the Season Ticket Holders

As we entered the gates, it was really surreal. There was just about everybody from the Front Office lining the sides of our path applauding us and thanking us for being Season Ticket Holders. I mean these employees were looking us right in the eye and saying it sincerely. I'll tell you something I was really moved. They had been doing it for about an hour and they still seemed just as genuine and thankful as if we were the first people through the gate. I felt kind of ashamed for walking through and not being a Season Ticket Holder, but I was glad that I could see it.

At that point Dex called and I'm like "I'm shaking hands with David Eckstein right now, hold on" and then he tells me that he probably won't be able to get out of work to make it down to Petco. I'm like "Sorry, I missed that last part because I was shaking hands with Adrian Gonzalez." I swear to you he has the softest hands I've ever felt. It was like spanking a new born baby's butt with cotton candy. It was that soft.

As soon as we walked in, there were people from concessions offering us free food and drinks. All the Padres gear was 40% too. We shopped for some Padres caps then grabbed some free pizza, drinks and pulled pork sandwiches.

Moorad wants to bring an All Star Game to San Diego

Once we found our seats Mark Neely came out to emcee the event. He first introduced Chairman and Owner Jeff Moorad. Moorad said a few words and I was kicking myself for not having a camera, a phone or anything to take notes with. Seriously I'm the worst blogger. He did say that his second biggest goal was to bring an All Star Game to San Diego, following only a World Series title in importance.

Moorad also mentioned that he understands how connected fans get to their favorite player, his favorite is Everth Cabrera. I wonder if that gets awkward at all. I imagine it something like Michael Scott's crush on the temp, Ryan, in The Office.

Throwback Thursday, Batting Practice Viewing and Lower Beer Prices

Next up was Tom Garfinkel, who told a joke about Hoyer wearing a jacket that made him look like Ron Burgundy. Nobody laughed. Garfinkel made some announcements: Every Thursday Game is now "Throwback Thursday" the Padres will be wearing Brown and Yellow and the Park will only be playing organ music! "No YMCA!" I was so excited I was clapping my little heart out. I remember when I had that idea back in 2006.

Garfinkel then announced that Dick Enberg would be the new TV voice of the Padres and that Enberg couldn't be at the Park tonight because he was being inducted into the Broadcaster's Hall of Fame. A video message of Enberg showed on the screen and he thanked the Padres fans and told them that he took this job because his first love was always baseball and he's always followed the Padres. He also gave us a preview of his home run call "Touch 'em all!" Jon wasn't impressed with the call.

Garfinkel also announced that Season Ticket Holders would be able to enter the park a half hour early to watch batting practice. That's what they call "added value" in the bizness.

Then to finish off on a strong note he announced to much applause that they would lower beer prices by a considerable amount, along with hot dogs, drinks other concessions.

Next up was Jed Hoyer. He came out and went through his standard schtick about how the weather is different between Boston and San Diego and that he can't believe he was standing outside without a jacket on. The crowd ate it up. We love hearing about how great San Diego is.

Bud Black came out next and said a few words. Neely introduced him as being a very even keeled manager, Mr. Steady. Black said a few words but I nodded off to the sound of his voice so I missed them.

Question and Answers

The first question was about people who didn't have Cox and couldn't view the Padres game. Garfinkel and Moorad said this issue was one of their biggest priorities and admitted that they are still under contract with Cox for another two years. They were negotiating to see if they can work something out for 2010. Moorad thinks it's ironic and sorta funny that John Moores can't watch Padres game from his home in Rancho Santa Fe.

There was another suggestion that there be a day where Season Ticket Holders can all donate their tickets to the Military so that they can have nice seats for a game. Ticket Holders said with applause that they'd like to do this. Garfinkel said he'd make it happen.

Another guy complained that there should be a net over the centerfield fence protecting the babies and children digging in the sand box beyond the fence. The Padres don't think it is necessary at this time because nobody has been hurt yet.

Moorad mentions Gaslamp Ball

Another lady asked a real general question about if they thought there should be a salary cap in baseball. Moorad decides to field that question and starts off by asking if there is any media in attendance. He looks around and says "This is off the record to the media... and to Gaslamp Ball" At the mention of us, Jon starts cheering and clapping, he's the only one. I honestly didn't even hear his answer to the question because we were laughing and tickling each other at the very mention of the site. Can somebody tell us if he was in favor of the cap or not? I think he was not in favor, who knows.

Somebody else got up and said that it's nice to have Jed Hoyer because he's easy on the eyes and that his wife had a crush on him. He questioned Hoyer about what he was going to do to keep Gonzalez in San Diego? His question got the most cheers of the night. Hoyer blushed at being the focus of the crush and talked about what a great player Adrian is.

That's all I really remember but I didn't have a pen to take notes. The Padres then raffled off the players jerseys and let the fans walk out on the field. Jon and I frolicked on the grass.

I talked to Warren from Media Relations and was introduced to Padres VP Dan Migala who was friends with Dex back when he was in North Carolina. He claims that he and Hoyer invited us to get beers but that Dex never replied to his email. He was also proud to be the target of some ribbing on Gaslamp Ball.

On the way out we grabbed a ton of leftover souvenirs from the season that will probably fill my trunk for the rest of the year. Really fun night.

Around the Mission: Everybody wants Kevin Kouzmanoff Edition

Dex — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:41:30 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

No joke. The Yankees just offered me a player to be named later in exchange for this photo of Kevin "Everybody Wants" Kouzmanoff.(AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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In links today, everybody is interested in Kevin Kouzmanoff. I mean bad. They want him so bad. And by "everybody", I mean kdukat and what's left of the Gaslamp Ball Girls. Hahahahaha...

No, I'm just kidding. Everybody wants Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Winter Meetings Rumor Update
Would a Geovany Soto-Heath Bell deal make sense for both sides? We check in with CBSSports.com’s Scott Miller from Indianapolis for the latest rumors on the Padres, Bell, Adrian Gonzalez, Milton Bradley, the Angels, Roy Halladay, Vlad, and more
Several clubs interested in Kouzmanoff | padres.com: News
Kevin Kouzmanoff, one of four prominent Padres who are eligible for arbitration and due a substantial raise, has apparently drawn the interest of several teams at the Winter Meetings.
Padres 3rd baseman Kouzmanoff creating a buzz - Sports - SignOnSanDiego.com
"We’re in fine shape financially at this point," he said. "Any moves will be made to try to make the team better."
The Schmuck Stops Here: Orioles: The third man - Some say it’s better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt. I disagree. - baltimoresun.com
the Orioles also have expressed interest in San Diego Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff
Correia’s days may be numbered - Sports - SignOnSanDiego.com
“They made an offer to me, but it was obviously below the arbitration value,” said Correia. “I could still end up playing here. And this is where I want to play. The door is not closed.”
PADRES: Club talks Correia, Kouzmanoff at winter meetings
"Nothing's final, but we're in the process of talking about a deal," Axelrod said by phone. "The proposal was not jumped at, but we'll talk again. ... Kevin's choice is to stay in San Diego for a variety of reasons. The only reason (he'd leave) would be if he was not compensated appropriately."

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Wednesday: Kouzmanoff, Perkins, Quinlan

Jesse — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:58:29 -0000

5:25 pm - This from ESPN's Jayson Stark: the Padres are making a hard push to move Kouzmanoff.

5:20 pm - HAPPY BIRTHDAY JON MARTHALER!

4:25 pm - Ummm....get this...Rich Harden? Yeah. He's signing with the Texas Rangers.

That's kind of a double-whammy for the Mariners, isn't it? Bit of a shock, for sure.

3:50 pm - More Olney: Rich Harden is on the verge of signing with...someone? No news on who. What are the chances that the mystery team is the Twins? Right now the rotation is probably guaranteed in four of five spots, but this would be a huge signing for Minnesota with big-time repurcussions.

What say you? Is it even possible? Rumor has it that the Mariners have been hot on his trail, but it could be someone else...

2:55 pm - Buster Olney tweets that the Twins and Padres "have had several discussions about Kevin Kouzmanoff".

2:45 pm - Kelsie Smith tweets that that the Twins' talks with Mark DeRosa's agent were "preliminary".

1:35 pm - A quiet afternoon for the Twins so far, but Ken Rosenthal tweets that LaTroy Hawkins will be pitching for the Brewers next year. Flame on, LaTroy!

10:50 am - Some highlights from LEN III's morning update, I suggest you pop over for a gander...

The Twins met with DeRosa's agent yesterday. Neal admits that DeRosa's been rumored to be asking for three years and $27 million, but also believes that a wave of non-tenders this weekend could drive down prices.
The agents for Pedro Feliz? They're getting the silent treatment. Can you just see Bill Smith, Rob Antony and company whistling and looking the other way as Feliz's agents walk by in the lobby?
Nothing is imminent with Quinlan.
This is surprising: the Twins tried to sign Boof to a one-year deal recently and were turned down. Looks like it was either one or the other, and we know how that story turns out.

9:40 am - Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Tim Dierkes rounds up the speculation over who Minnesota's likely third base targets are. He mentions the usuals: Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Felipe Lopez. And then he adds another one...Juan Uribe. Out of all of those players, the last one I would want would be Uribe.

Adding Joe Crede and Kevin Kouzmanoff to that list, and now we finally have a solid group of players to speculate on. Out of those six, who do you prefer?

7:15 am - A couple things I've read this morning...

First, "talks with Joe Crede are progressing slowly" with the Twins. That's interesting. I would have thought the Twins might try something else before going back to Crede, but perhaps they're just trying to keep their foot in the door.

LEN III in his late-late-late edition last night also said the Twins have interest in Mark DeRosa. Now, this isn't necessarily a surprise, but it's the first we've heard his name tied to the Twins this week.

6:50 am - Wrapping up the last two days before we get into what could be a very interesting day 3...

1. Carl Pavano accepted arbitration. The number people seem to be throwing out there is $7 million, although if the Twins sign him for two years they might be able to get away with $5 million per.

2. The biggest tidbit to come out of Tuesday involved the Twins and Padres discussing a Glen Perkins/Kevin Kouzmanoff swap. San Diego rejected the one-for-one deal, as they're looking for more. The Padres also were linked by Kouz to the Giants yesterday, but once again were looking for more than San Francisco's initial offer.

3. Speaking of the Giants, it sounds like they're shying away from Dan Uggla. The Orioles remain interested, but what about the Twins?

4. The sad news from yesterday: Boof Bonser was designated for assignment. I'm confident he'll sign on with somebody, and be able to contribute in 2010.

5. The Twins are also rumored to be interested in utility man Robb Quinlan, probably as a fourth outfielder.

6. There were a lot of rumors yesterday evening about three teams (one being the Cubs) and a number of players (one being Milton Bradley). A report from earlier in the evening said one team was a "surprise" American League club. Would the Twins be interested in moving Delmon Young in order to fit Bradley? How would you feel about a Michael Cuddyer/Denard Span/Milton Bradley outfield?

7. As we continue to discuss the Winter Meetings at length on the main page, don't forget to vote for the next top prospect! Every day Roger (in conjunction with Seth Stohs) is asking you: who is the next best prospect? If you haven't yet, head over to the FanPosts and vote on yesterday's ballot, and be sure to make your voice heard this afternoon on the next one.

8. Last but certainly not least, be sure to check out our own Jon Marthaler on Seth's podcast!

Wednesday Bird Droppings

duck — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 12:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Richard Drew - AP

Your Off-Season O of the Day: Koji Uehara (AP Photo/Richard Drew)

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More nuggets from Winter Meetings...

O's like landscape at third; Millwood talks continue -- baltimoresun.com
Jeff Zrebiec's late Tuesday night update contains lots of info. To wit: • Dan Uggla: not likely as long as the Marlins want two pitching prosects • San Diego's Kevin Kouzmanoff: The O's are interested in him, especially since he could move to first when Bell comes up • "mild interest" in Garrett Atkins of the Rockies • Phillie Pedro Feliz is still "top of the list" • The Rangers wanted David Hernandez + a lower-level prospect for Kevin Millwood and $3M. The teams have discussed other deals, and the O's are still frontrunners. • No real interest in Derek Lowe or Joe Blanton • .... and a bunch of other stuff. As a footnote, the Rockies apparently have shown an interest in Melvin Mora. -zk

MacPhail's 6pm presser, via Roch - Discussing 3B
Andy MacPhail: "There are some options available to us, and not just free agents. Potential trades that we've identified," he said. "It's a reasonably sized list. And we're somewhat guided by the fact that we're very pleased with how Josh Bell has responded since he put on an Orioles uniform. We don't want to do anything that's going to hamper his development, but we also have to be realistic that prospects are just that - they're prospects." -zk

More names floated as signing possibilities for O's - MASN
"The Orioles maintain interest in first baseman Carlos Delgado, who is expected to begin playing in Puerto Rico later this week. And they also are keeping an open dialogue with Sam Levinson, who represents third baseman Pedro Feliz. Also, if the Orioles lose a player in the Rule 5 draft, it could be Double-A Bowie second baseman Miguel Abreu, who is drawing strong interest from the San Diego Padres. At least two other teams, the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers, have scouted him in Puerto Rico." -duck

The Schmuck Stops Here: The third man
"The Orioles also have expressed interest in San Diego Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, who had 18 homers and 88 RBI in 141 games last year." I know absolutely nothing about this player. Enlighten me. Also, if you have nothing better to do with your life (and I sincerely hope you do), you can participate in a chat with Peter Schmuck at 1:30 p.m. today -duck

O's to meet again with Chapman team
"The Orioles will meet with the representatives for Cuban pitcher Aroldis Chapman before leaving Indianapolis. They've had discussions with Alan Hendricks over the past few weeks in sort of a start-over process after Chapman switched agents." -duck [UPDATE: They met with his reps yesterday -zk]

The Schmuck Stops Here: Orioles: Arms sale
The O's have their pick of Kevin Millwood, Joe Blanton or Derek Lowe, who averaged 15 wins a year for the last 8 years - who knew? All can be had at reasonable prices. But do we actually want any of that group? -duck

Obstacles block Royals' interest in Orioles outfielder Pie
"The Royals remain interested in a trade to acquire outfielder Felix Pie but appear unable — and unwilling — to meet Baltimore’s asking price of a run-production corner infielder." They won't budge on Billy Butler, and they have no one else we're interested in. -duck

Peter Gammons: Baseball analyst to leave ESPN after winter meetings
Peter Gammons is leaving ESPN after the winter meetings. He may be a Red Sox homer, but he is a pretty good source of information on the larger media market clubs. -duck [UPDATE: He's going to MLB Network. -zk]

Organizational Rankings: Practical makes perfect for Red Sox - MLB - CBSSports.com Baseball
Larry Dobrow (who?) breaks down all 30 franchises in his annual Organizational Rankings. The O's ranked 15th, up from 29th last year.

Woodland critters: [singing] What special time, what special place! It's Woodland Critter Christmas!
Squirrely the Squirrel: Hail, Open Thread!

Winter Meetings Open Thread, Tuesday: Pavano Accepts Arbitration

Jesse — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 12:33:42 -0000

9:00 pm - Random update from Jon: I'll be on Seth Stohs' podcast about 9:25pm Central time, presumably to make jokes about Nick Punto showing up at the Winter Meetings to dive headfirst into Marirott lobby plants.

3:05 pm - Over at LEN III's blog he chats about Bonser's departure, done in order to create room for Pavano on the 40-man roster. He also continues to speculate that Perkins could be traded, and brings up something that's been discussed here before but would be an immense surprise to me if it actally happened: the potential for Jesse Crain to be non-tendered.

2:35 - Aaron Gleeman re-Tweets from Lyle Spencer: Twins are interested in Robb Quinlan, and they aren't the only team to be so inclined.

2:20 pm - Peter Gammons is to leave ESPN following his assignment at the Winter Meetings. I love Gammons, so this makes me sad. Hopefully he continues to be a baseball correspondent in some form.

2:05 pm - As noted in the comments and courtesy of Kelsie Smith, the Twins have designated Boof Bonser for assignment. Au revoir, Boof. It's a shame it has to end this way, because I really do think he had something to offer this club. Unfortunately he's become a casualty of depth; it's a shame he couldn't be traded.

1:05 pm - A few notes on names of interest as the first big trade of the Winter Meetings nears completion (Yankees-Tigers-Diamondbacks)...

LaTroy Hawkins is hoping to get a deal done with the Astros. Hawkins turns 37 in a couple of weeks.
Sounds like the Orioles are still the leading candidate to land Dan Uggla.
As fischean pointed out, Ryan Church has been designated for assignment. Does anyone think the Twins would be interested in him as a fourth outfielder?
This three-way deal sounds like it'll be a pretty big deal...

Noon - From LEN III's mid-morning update...

The Padres want to speak to the Twins about Kevin Kouzmanoff. Remember when we were talking about him for about four straight days last year?
Sounds like the agent for Pedro Feliz wants to feel up out the Twins as well.
He believes Boof Bonser could be made available, and that the Padres (probably in relation to Kouz) might be interested in Glen Perkins.

11:15 am - Joe C. projects that if Pavano makes $7 million through arbitration (I still want to think that's high) then Minnesota's opening day payroll is already at $90 million--without making another move or extending Joe Mauer.

11:05 am - Kelsie Smith has an email from Pavano where he explains why he's staying with the Twins. I don't want to share the whole thing, because Kelsie deserves a look for having it in the first place, but this line struck me:

Or I accept arbitration and work out a deal with a team that is strong in character and talent, as I have already experienced, with a staff that is the one of the best I've had in baseball, and in a division where our rival last year is rumored to be unloading some of their top players with other teams in the start of a rebuilding phase.<.i>

10:40 am - Over at his blog, LEN III speculates that with Pavano accepting arbitration, Glen Perkins is expendable pitcher numero uno. Do you agree?

6:30 am - Rounding up some Twins-related news from yesterday before we kick off the second day of the Winter Meetings.

Carl Pavano was one of three potential free agents to accept arbitration, along with Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Soriano. And that's...pretty much it! Perchance day two will bring more news, but I guarantee it'll continue to bring more speculation...

Padres Award Celebration Auction Items

jbox — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 22:20:00 -0000

Friar John's Blog: Padres Award Celebration Special Auction

The Padres Award Celebration is today at the Hall of Champions you could have bought a ticket to the lunch for $75 dollars or 10 tickets for $750. Wow, nice of the Padres to give a group discount. In case you were wondering you could also have bought a special 2 ticket combo for $150 or the third wheel ticket package for $225.

Here's some of the auction items available for fans to bid on:

Dinner with Jed Hoyer: Hoyer may be engaged but you can play the part of Robert Redford and Jed Hoyer can be your Demi Moore in this Indecent Proposal.
One-on-One Pitching Lessons with Heath Bell: Learn how to over eat, feud with ESPN and promote Wii Fit while playing catch in the Padres bullpen.
Hitting Lessons with Kevin Kouzmanoff: Bahahahah! That's rich. I'd bid on this if they were "Hitting Lessons FOR Kevin Kouzmanoff"
General Manger for the Day: Three innings in the booth with Hoyer. Since when is three innings a day?
Lunch with Bud Black: If this was "Bud Black reads you a bedtime story and tucks you in" then I know insomniacs the world over would bid.
Honorary Groundskeeper: Isn't this a job they should be paying you for? The Padres should have fans bid on Honorary Bathroom Cleaner while they are at it.
Little Star Experience: This could be your child's big break, but not really.
Salute to the Champions: No Padres will be in attendance.
A Game-Used Base from the 2006 NLDS: Good chance Albert Pujols stepped on it... Even better chance no Padres stepped on it.
Jake Peavy's Clubhouse Chair: Perfect for sniffing.
Taylor Guitar Signed by 2008 Padres: Now you can strum along with the non-stop Gary Glitter songs at Petco Park.

NL West in Review: 3rd Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:00:43 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

Atkins could soon be a teammate of the pitcher he just hit a home run off of in this picture: Cole Hamels. Maybe going ~~to a hitter's park~~ away could help ~~his career~~ the Rockies.

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You want to know where the Rockies lost the division in 2009? Don't look at Jorge de la Rosa's groin (please don't). Don't blame Clint Hurdle. Don't blame Canada. Don't look at the Rockies seemingly annual inability to beat one NL West team.

No - your culprit is the hot corner.

The Rockies were heavy favorites to outclass the NL West at third base going into the season. Garrett Atkins was projected to finally rebound while Ian Stewart was expected to exhibit growth. Either way, Colorado was sitting pretty. Brendan Scolari's preseason report had the Rockies way out in front at third base, totalling 5.5 WAR, with San Francisco second at just 2.3 WAR. Los Angeles was in a tie for last at just 2.0 WAR.

Part of that is misleading, as his projections gave the Rockies about 300 extra PA, so Colorado's lead over LA should been more in the neighborhood of 2.5 WAR. Instead, it was Los Angeles that trounced the Rockies by almost 3.5 WAR. There's a six game swing right there.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Francisco	4	.313	26	92	.368	.532	.392	6.04
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	20	92	.356	.424	.353	4.95
3. Arizona	4	.247	39	90	.336	.487	.355	3.70
4. San Diego	5	.258	20	100	.314	.420	.331	3.19
5. Colorado	4	.223	22	77	.314	.386	.307	1.56

The third base position was comparatively very stable in 2009 for the division - only the Rockies failed to have a third baseman accrue 500+ PA.Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5:

You might be surprised who comes out on top of the NL West rankings for third base. (Hint: this man is responsible).

There were 23 total third basemen, with the top five representing the main starters from each of the five teams. The complete rankings/stats can be viewed here, along with all the juicy math behind the numbers:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Casey Blake	LAD	557	.282	18	78	.365	.471	.362	8.0	4.00
2	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	512	.320	20	69	.377	.544	.401	-4.5	3.82
3	Mark Reynolds	AZ	554	.246	37	80	.339	.528	.375	-4.3	3.23
4	Kevin Kouzmanoff	SDP	571	.238	18	71	.303	.420	.325	7.7	2.62
5	Ian Stewart	COL	379	.225	15	41	.327	.420	.320	4.7	1.57
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
19	Chris Burke	SDP	3	.000	0	0	.000	.000	.000	-	-0.06
20	Josh Wilson	SDP	13	.154	0	0	.154	.231	.167	-	-0.10
21	Augie Ojeda	AZ	63	.182	1	4	.262	.291	.245	-4.1	-0.12
22	Edgar Gonzalez	SFG	15	.214	0	1	.267	.429	.284	-1.4	-0.13
23	Blake DeWitt	LAD	26	.200	0	2	.192	.280	.234	-0.6	-0.14

San Diego Padres Predictions from the Bill James Handbook 2010

Dex — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 05:41:12 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

"I was looking at the Mayan calendar, and 2010 is our year. 2012, not so much." (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

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I've got a sneak peak at the new Bill James Handbook 2010 and I want to go through and check out what we can look forward to next season. Bill James has been putting these handbooks together forevs and I always look at them with an eye towards who might do what, but also an eye towards pretending that I have an even better predictive model using the guts of a chicken splayed out over a burning Ouija board.

Let's check it...

	Age	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	RC	RC27	BB	SO	SB	CS	SB%	Avg	OBP	Slg	OPS
Alfonzo,Eliezer	31	64	189	49	10	0	7	19	25	23	4.27	6	48	1	0	1	0.259	0.286	0.423	0.709
Blanco,Henry	38	82	228	51	11	0	6	22	23	23	3.38	20	52	0	0	0	0.224	0.286	0.351	0.637
Blanks,Kyle	23	142	524	145	23	3	25	79	93	89	6.07	66	140	3	2	0.6	0.277	0.362	0.475	0.837
Cabrera,Everth	23	145	545	146	29	11	3	90	44	74	4.68	67	117	37	12	0.76	0.268	0.353	0.378	0.731
Eckstein,David	35	128	444	120	21	1	3	57	35	49	3.91	34	40	4	2	0.67	0.27	0.337	0.342	0.68
Giles,Brian	39	92	292	77	17	1	7	40	36	43	5.18	47	36	2	1	0.67	0.264	0.371	0.401	0.772
Gonzalez,Adrian	28	161	614	171	37	2	35	97	106	117	6.87	87	127	1	0	1	0.279	0.372	0.516	0.888
Gonzalez,Edgar	32	63	112	30	6	0	3	13	13	15	4.7	11	22	1	1	0.5	0.268	0.344	0.402	0.746
Gwynn,Tony	27	88	212	56	8	2	1	29	14	24	3.9	22	32	10	4	0.71	0.264	0.336	0.335	0.671
Headley,Chase	26	149	528	150	36	3	17	72	72	87	5.94	63	129	8	3	0.73	0.284	0.365	0.455	0.819
Hundley,Nick	26	84	264	60	14	1	10	30	38	31	3.93	25	64	3	1	0.75	0.227	0.297	0.402	0.698
Kouzmanoff,Kevin	28	144	512	141	32	2	20	59	84	74	5.17	29	95	1	1	0.5	0.275	0.327	0.463	0.79
Rodriguez,Luis	30	95	244	62	13	1	2	27	20	27	3.84	28	21	1	1	0.5	0.254	0.331	0.34	0.671
Salazar,Oscar	32	88	246	72	16	1	9	31	40	40	5.94	18	33	1	1	0.5	0.293	0.341	0.476	0.817
Venable,Will	27	120	395	99	18	2	13	53	48	50	4.36	34	95	7	2	0.78	0.251	0.313	0.405	0.718

OK. So what does all of this mean? I'll tell you. It means we're effed.

I mean, maybe we aren't effed-effed, but still. Didn't this team feel faster in August and September? Didn't it feel more powerful? Was that just an illusion?

If this is the projection for our hitters, what does our starting lineup looking like at this point?

Is that really it? Doesn't it look weird to look at?

Bright Spots:

Everth Cabrera and Kyle Blanks both are predicted to up their production and both are young dudes. Everth is especially exciting for his speed and Kyle is exciting for the power. It's like Mantle and Maris! Blanks will probably end up protecting Adrian before the year is out, but probably not to start the season.
Adrian Gonzalez, while not predicted to put 40 over the fence next year, is still slated for another 100+ RBI season with close to 100 runs. Also, the doubles total bodes well for producing runs, but not so well for the needy children, dependent on these sadistic charities who will only donate money when Adrian puts a home run charge in the ball.

Mehs:

Kevin Kouzmanoff's numbers look kinda nice and I'm sure he'll total pretty close, but (sorry Kouz fans) I'm also thinking that a lot of the numbers will be put up in garbagy, unclutchy ways.
Wouldn't it be nice to have a catcher?
Something about Tony Gwynn's line looks really depressing.
Brian Giles is still on the team? How is he predicted to have so many ABs? Am I reading this right?

Tomorrow, let's look at pitchers. That should be scary fun.

In the meantime, the handbook is available for preorder. It would be rad of you to purchase the book through us. Maybe let's take some time right now to make really super bold predictions and then rub them in Bill James's face when ours turn out terrific.

Are These the Guys We Wanted?

Jesse — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:01:00 -0000

Every year we have a little wish-list of guys we hope the organization targets. Here are a select few who garnered interest from Twinkie Town or from the Twins organization. In no particular order...

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Juan Cruz	3-4	46	0	0	0	2	4	50.1	46	34	32	6	29	38	5.72	1.49

He's always been a bit of a loose cannon, but at least he was striking out people with such regularity and consistency that he could get himself out of as much trouble as he got himself into. This year the strikeout rate was nearly cut in half, his LOB& dropped from 83.6% in 2007 to a miserable 62.1% this season. He was around the strike zone more often, hitters stopped swinging at anything he threw outside of the strike zone and contact was way up. It was a bad season for Cruz, and suffice it to say I'm glad the Twins didn't gamble here.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

I think we pretty much got what we expected out of Joe. He was a good defender when he was on the field (15.9 UZR/150), and was a power bat you had to show some respect if you were a pitcher who survived the first half of the Minnesota batting order. Too bad he wasn't around for the post-season, we could have used him.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Hudson	149	551	74	156	35	6	9	62	62	99	8	1	.283	.357	.417

Hot start, and that led to a pretty decent season for the 32-year old second baseman. The Dodgers phased him out toward the end of the season. His defense was better than last year, but was still just south of average if we go by his -2.9 UZR/150. His $3.38 million base salary wasn't bad, but if he signed for that to play with the Dodgers then I'm sure the Twins would have had to pony up a bit more. His incentives made it possible for the year to be worth a full $10 million, all based around plate appearances: $150K for reaching both the 150 and 175 plate appearance mark; $200 K for every 25 plate appearances from 200 - 300; $250 K for every 25 from 325 - 575; $10,000 for EVERY SINGLE plate appearance from 576 - 632. How many PA's did he have this year? 631.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Russ Springer	0-1	48	0	0	0	0	1	41.2	52	20	19	5	14	47	4.10	1.58

Great walk and strikeout rates, but he was an extreme fly-ball pitcher again this year and allowed a bunch of homers as a result--19 is enough for a guy who pitches 200 innings, much less 41.2. His breaking balls and off-speed pitches were almost non-existant, making almost exclusively a two-pitch pitcher with his fastball and cutter. Lots of good peripherals for Springer though, and so even though he'll be 41 in November he should still get some interest in the coming months.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jarrod Washburn Mariners Tigers	8-6 1-3	20 8	20 8	1 0	1 0	0 0	0 0	133.0 43.0	109 51	42 35	39 35	11 12	33 16	79 21	2.64 7.33	1.07 1.56

W-L

SHO

ERA

WHIP

2009 - Jarrod Washburn

Mariners

Tigers

8-6

1-3

133.0

43.0

109

2.64

7.33

1.07

1.56

There were a lot, and I mean a LOT of rumors tying Washburn to the Twins last winter. As good as he was with the Mariners this season, seeing how horrendous he was in his short stint with the Tigers just confirms exactly how much Minnesota didn't need him around. He may have lucked the Twins into an extra win or two early in the season, but he would have given them right back at the end of the year when it counted: barely five inning a start, almost as many runs as he'd had in three times the innings, a disgusting number of homers...no, thank you.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ty Wigginton	122	410	44	112	19	0	11	41	23	57	1	2	.273	.314	.400

The walks dipped slightly after a career year in 2008, but it was the power that literally just disappeared. He couldn't hit fastballs, which is never good, but he wasn't really having success no matter which pitch type he'd swing at. Wigginton's overall contact percentage was constant, and he was even swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone, but he was making more contact on the ones he did swing at. Which, probably, meant easier outs. It looks like Wigginton's pitch selection just disappeared this year, along with his power, and along with a little bit of bad luck (or maybe just not as much luck as he had last year) his numbers took a major dip. He's a guy I really wanted the Twins to go after.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Nomar Garciaparra	65	160	17	45	8	0	3	16	8	28	2	0	.281	.314	.388

This could be the end for Nomar. I did entertain the idea of picking him up for a bench option, as a guy who could start as a DH versus southpaws while playing a couple innings at third here and there. Another one of my crackpot ideas, clearly.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Casey Blake	139	485	84	136	25	6	18	79	63	116	3	4	.280	.363	.468

Knowing what we know now, seeing how decent of a year Blake had, would you sign him to the deal the Dodgers did? I said no when it happened, and in spite of his good year I wouldn't change my answer. Three years plus an option in 2012, that at a minimum will pay out $17.5 million dollars including '12's buyout...and in reality it's still probably safe to say that Minnesota would have had to beat that offer somehow land Blake in a Twins uniform.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Mike Lincoln	1-1	19	0	0	0	0	0	23.0	29	21	21	7	19	9	8.22	2.09

His name came up just before the Winter Meetings kicked up. Not good, ladies and gents, not good.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Garrett Atkins	126	354	37	80	12	1	9	48	41	58	0	0	.226	.308	.342

Definitely dodged a bullet here.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Adrian Beltre	111	449	54	119	27	0	8	44	19	74	13	2	.265	.304	.379

No doubt this was a bad, bad year for Adrian, but considering his prowess with the glove (14.7 UZR/150) I can still see the Twins showing some interest. He'll be 31 next season, so a breakout season is likely out of the cards but I do believe he could quite easily be a moderately productive offensive third baseman. But considering how much the Twins would have had to give up to get him last winter, it's a good thing they didn't work it out.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Miguel Tejada	158	635	83	199	46	1	14	86	19	48	5	2	.313	.340	.455

I'm not sure Tejada would have had this good of a season in the American League, but no doubt 46 doubles is a fantastic number and slightly off-sets his steady but definitely suppressed power numbers over the last few years. Still, the reason the Twins didn't continue to pursue him during the Winter Meetings was because of what the Astros, allegedly, were asking for in return. And I know that last winter, given the option between Tejada and Crede for third base, I'd have gone with Crede.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Cabrera Athletics Twins	101 59	414 242	41 42	116 70	23 13	0 3	4 5	41 36	25 11	39 32	11 2	4 0	.280 .289	.318 .313	.365 .430

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Orlando Cabrera

Athletics

Twins

101

414

242

116

.280

.289

.318

.313

.365

.430

O-Cab finished strong with the Twins. Having him all season would have been better than who we had on board, and we found out the kind of fire, energy and leadership he can bring to a team. He's someone guys like Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla can look up to as a leader. My hesitation in wanting him back in 2010 has to deal with A) how much money he wants and B) how much worse his range can get. But yes, this is a guy that, in hindsight, would have been a good addition. At the same time I know that had the Twins brought him in last winter, I'd be wondering why they didn't try for someone better. Just goes to show you how perspective can change your mind.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jack Wilson Pirates Mariners	75 31	266 107	26 11	71 24	18 5	1 0	4 1	31 8	15 6	31 17	2 1	1 0	.267 .224	.304 .263	.387 .299

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Jack Wilson

Pirates

Mariners

266

107

.267

.224

.304

.263

.387

.299

Very good defense at shortstop (15.3 UZR/150), but miserable offense. He's the kind of guy that, with a better offense around him or more depth off the bench, I'd be happy to have as a starter. I didn't want him last season, but knowing what I know now I think I probably could have dealt with what he brings to the table. Middle infield talent was clearly an issue this season.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mark DeRosa Indians Cardinals	71 68	278 237	47 31	75 54	13 10	0 1	13 10	50 28	29 18	63 58	1 2	1 1	.270 .228	.342 .291	.457 .405

RBI

AVG

OBP

SLG

2009 - Mark DeRosa

Indians

Cardinals

278

237

.270

.228

.342

.291

.457

.405

Would DeRose continued to have a good season had he spent an entire season in the American League? Who knows, but considering Cleveland got him for a song I'm still shocked the Twins didn't move on him. Maybe they just didn't like him for one reason or another, but I was a fan. No doubt he'd have spent his whole season in Minnesota had be been healthy.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Kevin Kouzmanoff	141	529	50	135	31	1	18	88	27	106	1	0	.255	.302	.420

Quite a bit of chatter about Kouz around the Winter Meetings, and I know some people were fans. I wasn't. His defense wasn't bad at third this year, but offensively he's a guy like Crede--pop but no real on-base skills.

Is there anyone that I've missed? Just a little nostalgic look at last year's off-season, making me wonder what does this one have in store? I'm thinking...well, I'm thinking something to do with one of the best-hitting catchers of all time.

I'll catch you all later.

Padres clinch embarrassing sweep of Dodgers 5-0

jbox — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 07:04:15 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

2 months ago: San Diego Padres' Kevin Kouzmanoff, center, Adrian Gonzalez, right, and Luke Gregerson high five after the Padres 5-0 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

Browse more photos »

That was a fun game. These last two nights at the park have had electric crowds. San Diego was so psyched to stop the Dodgers from celebrating in our ballpark.

Tom Garfinkel gave Dex and I a couple tickets in that dugout section down by first base. Man those are nice seats. They had all this free food for us, but we weren't sure if it was free so at first we were kind of careful of what we were ordering and then when we realized we weren't being billed we got a little carried away. Here's a question: How do you tip your server? Is it 15% of your ticket price? Is it 15% of the approximate price of what you ate? Is there some other rule? We went with the latter.

Those seats down there have those little fold out desks, I felt like I should have brought a scantron with me to take a test. Dex busted out his computer and we hacked into the media's wifi, so we could live blog and tweet. Oh the good times we had.

Did you dudes, see that Kevin Kouzmanoff home run? That was like one of those light cycles from Tron.

Man, Clayton Richard is so good. He one hit them Dodgers for what 7 innings? I'd like to see Peavy try and do that!

Let's see, what else happened? We saw Steve Lyons, he was just standing around, probably all excited about covering the Dodgers clinching the NL West. Not so fast Lyons! Not on our watch!

After the game we waved to Steve Quis who was interviewing Kouz for the Channel 4 Postgame. He came over and shook our hands and we talked about the good times we had hanging out back in the day. We told him to pass along our "hellos" to Scan and Weisbarth and to wink at Jenny Cavnar.

While we were talking to him and people were exiting we suddenly notice that the Petco Park sound system is once again playing Bob Dylan's "Wigwam" (video) as the exit music. I told Dex, "I think Garfinkel is teasing us".

Dex has some pictures on his phone. I think they are mostly of the back of Steve Lyons' head though.

You know what was weird? Right at the very end of the game with one out in the 9th, an Usher yelled at a Padres fan to sit down and stop cheering. Not sure what was going on there.

As we were walking out one of the security guards gave us knuckles and said "Not in our town Dodgers! This is our town!" Word.

Thanks to Tom for the tickets. Good times.