SB Nation - Jose Morales

The Rookies Who Aren't

TheJay — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 11:00:16 -0000

A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

The first part of the definition of a rookie in Major League Baseball is straightforward. Once a player reaches 131 at bats or 50 1/3 innings pitched, he's no longer a rookie. The second part is a little trickier. After all, service time numbers are hard to find. They generally come out once each year, in team media guides. Add in the fact that you have to subtract time in the major leagues after September 1st and on the disabled list and it's even harder to figure out who is truly a rookie.

It has already been mentioned this offseason that Mat Gamel eclipsed 45 days of service time before September. Gamel was recalled from Nashville on May 14th and optioned back on July 20th, giving him 67 days on the active roster during the "period of 25-player limit." So, even though he sits at 130 career at bats, the same number Scott Rolen had going into his Rookie of the Year season, Gamel cannot win the Rookie of the Year award (though that might not stop him from getting votes).

Gamel isn't the only such little-used non-rookie in the Brewers organization. Raise your hand if you realized Hernan Iribarren has 48 days of major league service time, all before September 1. Iribarren spent 20 days on the major league roster in April and June 2008, picking up 14 at bats. He spent 28 days in the majors in 2009, batting a mere 13 times. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict he wasn't going to win the 2010 Rookie of the Year Award anyway.

New Brewer George Kottaras also enters 2010 off the list of rookie players. He spent all of 2009 in the majors with the Red Sox, playing in 45 games with 93 at bats. Though he spent the month of August on the disabled list, he gave up his 2010 rookie status in mid-May.

Gamel, Iribarren, and Kottaras are not the only little-used rookies. Follow the jump for a list of all such position players to appear in the majors in 2008 or 2009. Please note it is lengthy and full of guys who have no chance at winning an award anyway. I will post a list of pitchers in the next few days.

Non-Rookies with 130 or fewer career AB:

Mat Gamel, 130 career AB
Joaquin Arias, 129 AB
Argenis Reyes, 127 AB
Jose Morales, 122 AB
Ivan Ochoa*, 120 AB
Michel Hernandez, 118 AB
Curtis Thigpen*, 118 AB
Ramiro Pena, 115 AB
Josh Whitesell, 115 AB
Luke Carlin, 112 AB
Chris Gimenez, 111 AB
Tyler Greene, 108 AB
Sam Fuld, 103 AB
Reid Brignac, 100 AB
Francisco Cervelli, 99 AB
George Kottaras, 98 AB
Freddy Guzman, 95 AB
Robinson Cancel, 94 AB
Guillermo Rodriguez, 92 AB
Steve Holm, 91 AB
Justin Ruggiano*, 90 AB
Nathan Haynes*, 89 AB
Diory Hernandez, 85 AB
Don Kelly, 83 AB
Dane Sardinha, 80 AB
Luis Maza*, 79 AB
Paul Hoover, 78 AB
Edwin Maysonet, 76 AB
Dusty Ryan, 70 AB
Clint Sammons, 68 AB
Tug Hulett, 67 AB
Drew Sutton, 66 AB
J.R. House*, 60 AB
John Mayberry, 57 AB
Gregorio Petit, 54 AB
Brian Myrow*, 51 AB
Chris Stewart*, 48 AB
Justin Christian*, 40 AB
Travis Denker*, 37 AB
Gustavo Molina*, 34 AB
Hernan Iribarren, 27 AB
Ryan Budde, 23 AB

* - last appeared in the majors in 2008

I warned you. If I missed anyone or included someone who should not be on the list, let me know in the comments.

Five Hours and Counting

Jesse — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 00:06:18 -0000

Free agency looms. Will any of the Twins five free agents return?

It's been confirmed that the Twins have had opening talks with Carl Pavano's agent, but other than Ron Gardenhire saying he'd be interested in bringing back Orlando Cabrera as his second basemen there's been no news on the rest of Minnesota's remaining free agents.

Mike Redmond

#55 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 5-11

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: May 05, 1971

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mike Redmond	45	135	9	32	5	1	0	7	11	19	0	0	.237	.299	.289

Redmond's had a distunguished career, and he's earned himself a reputation as a "gamer". He plays hard, he's a leader and he's a mentor. With Joe Mauer as the game's best catcher and Jose Morales getting his feet wet with some decent results, Redmond's time in Minnesota as a player is likely done. He'll be 39 next May, and NBP has done the expected and said he'd like to remain with the Twins.

During his five seasons in Minnesota Redmond hit .297/.339/.359 in 931 plate appearances, with 44 walks and 85 strikeouts. I'll remember him for the "Smell 'Em" bit, for hitting .341 in '06 and for being pretty much the best backup a team could ask for.

Odds for a return in 2010: Improbable

Ron Mahay

#37 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 195

Bats: L

Throws: L

Born: Jun 28, 1971

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ron Mahay	1-0	16	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	7	3	2	1	3	8	2.00	1.11

The 38-year old southpaw pitched about as well as you could ask him to down the stretch for the Twins, and he helped to solidify the LOOGY role when Jose Mijares lost his mind and threw at Adam Everett. Over the course of his career he's been a pretty decent relief pitcher, succeeding as a middle relief guy especially when used as that lefty-one-out-guy. Mahay's struggled with his command for most of his career, and he's averaged 4.4 BB/9 across his last three years.

With fewer positions available than there are arms already it doesn't make sense to bring in a LOOGY when it's going to take seven digits to get him to commit, especially when Mijaries can do the job for a fraction of the cost. Thanks for the contributions sir, but I think it might be time to shake hands.

Odds for a return in 2010: Improbable

Joe Crede

#24 / Third Base / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-2

Weight: 230

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 26, 1978

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Crede	90	333	42	75	16	1	15	48	29	56	0	0	.225	.289	.414

He was excatly as advertised in 2009: great with the glove, some pop in his bat, can't get on base and can't stay on the field. At points over the last few weeks I've advocated the possibility of bringing Joe back on a similar contract to the one he signed last February, but the more I tihnk about it the worse of an idea it becomes. If you're going to shell out for a free agent, make sure it's a guy who has a good chance of playing. Don't pay millions for a guy who will require a contingency plan because he's almost a guarantee to miss stretches of time. Nick Nelson spells it out much better than I have.

Crede isn't opposed to returning, and I have to agree with Nick: if the Twins wait this out and try to make something happen at third base but can't by February, then sure, give Crede another shot. In reality, he might get another shot. But I won't be upset if he signs elsewhere, and I'm hoping that I can remember him as the guy who hit the grand slam to put us over the White Sox early in the year.

Odds for a return in 2010: Possible

Orlando Cabrera

#18 / Short Stop / Minnesota Twins

Height: 5-9

Weight: 185

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Nov 02, 1974

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Orlando Cabrera	59	242	42	70	13	3	5	36	11	32	2	0	.289	.313	.430

O-Cab was a high-energy guy who brought a buzz to the team when they needed it. Like Crede he came up with some massive and memorable hits, but also like Crede his overall production doesn't warrant a whole lot of consideration for a return. He's already showing decline, and at 35 he's not going to get better.

Cabrera was great to have around and I'll remember him not just for his homer in game 163, but for his relationship with Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla, and for giving the club a shot of adrenaline. Unfortunately second base isn't going to make his millions any more palatable, particularly when there are so many second base upgrades on the free agent market.

Odds for a return in 2010: Possible

Carl Pavano

#48 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-5

Weight: 240

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 08, 1976

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carl Pavano	5-4	12	12	0	0	0	0	73.2	85	39	38	7	16	59	4.64	1.37

This season was a bit of a revival for Pavano, and he proved himself to be a big game pitcher for the Twins down the stretch. When he's healthy he's can strike a few guys out and has good command, and while he'll be 34 in January he's still young enough to have another good season or two to give.

Pavano has stated he'd like to return to the Twins, and naturally the prospect of playing for a competetive team like Minnesota will have some draw. Minnesota's interest is likely mutual, but Pavano's future here (unlike the rest of the guys on this list) will depend greatly on what kind of interest he draws from other clubs and how much they'll be willing to pay him next year.

I expect Pavano to get an offer from the Twins within the next couple of weeks.

Odds for a return in 2010: Realistic

Poll

Which free agent are the Twins most likely to bring back?

Mike Redmond

21 votes

Ron Mahay

4 votes

Joe Crede

65 votes

Orlando Cabrera

41 votes

Carl Pavano

572 votes

None of the above, actually

71 votes

774 votes | Poll has closed

Twins Non-Tender Candidates

Jesse — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 02:15:37 -0000

Are there really any surprises? We'll throw in some other candidates who, while not technically non-tender candates, are still players whose rosters spots are in doubt.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brendan Harris	123	414	44	108	22	1	6	37	29	78	0	2	.261	.310	.362

Brendan's offensive projections coming into 2009 weren't unreasonable. In fact, five of the more popular oracles all had his OPS coming in between .715 and .750, and those all seemed about right considering the last couple of years he's had. Instead he turned in a .672 performance, his lowest since his rookie season in 2004. In general he walked less, hit fewer line drives and his plate discipline fell off as well. In the field, his ability to play multiple positions aside, there's no advantage to be found.

All of Minnesota's middle infielders struggled this season, but with Harris A) not under contract for 2010, B) due a significant raise in aribitration and C) with less expensive options available to fill his shoes, Brendan's future with the Twins isn't guaranteed.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Brian Buscher	61	136	14	32	3	1	2	12	24	35	0	0	.235	.360	.316

Buscher's fate could be tied to any number of things, but largely his future with the Twins will boil down to what the organization wants to do with other players. If the Twins feel Luke Hughes or Daniel Valencia are ready to step in it will depend on whether they'll be happy with an inexperienced but familiar backup who can hit right-handers. In spite of the fact that he'll be due less money than Harris in 2010, their fates could be tied to each other if Minnesota brings in a veteran third baseman.

The only way both of these players return, and feel free to point out how wrong I am if I'm missing something, is if the Twins believe that a Harris/Buscher platoon at the hot corner is their best option going forward. But between the trade market for third baseman, the free agent market for third basemen and a pair of decent third base prospects due to break into the majors at any time, I have to believe their days in Minnesota are numbered.

Boof Bonser

#26 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-4

Weight: 245

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 14, 1981

He still has the best name on the roster, and personally I'd be surprised if he wasn't tendered a contract this winter, but you can certainly make a case that his status could be in doubt.

Bonser will be due arbitration in 2010.
Put that extra money on top of disappointing '07 and '08 campaigns, and a completely missed '09, and you could argue that the money going to Bonser would constitute an uneccessary risk.
The Twins have a lot of young, pre-arbitration starters available.

A lot of how you view this decision depends on your faith in Bonser's abilities going forward. He did pitch better than his numbers might indicate in '07 and especially '08, but can he consistently use his fastball/curveball combination effectively for a full season as a starter?

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Philip Humber	0-0	8	0	0	0	0	0	9.0	17	8	8	1	9	9	8.00	2.89

Unless this organization is seeing something I'm not seeing, I don't see a reason to hang onto Humber at this point. The fact that he's not currently on the 40-man roster works to his advantage, because it does mean that if the Twins want to keep him in Rochester next season as a little insurance they can without using up a roster spot. But for a guy who will be 27 next season, who is essentially a two-pitch pitcher and who's really struggled with his command as a general rule in the majors, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get the axe.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Delmon Young	108	395	50	112	16	2	12	60	12	92	2	5	.284	.308	.425

No, no, no, no, no. A thousand times, no. I know he hasn't panned out so far but he'll still be just 24 in 2010, and maybe the Twins need to get inside his head a bit. Every morning tell him it's September. I don't know, but especially with nobody to push him next season coming up through the system there's is absolutely zero reason to even consider this.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jesse Crain	7-4	56	0	0	0	0	0	51.2	48	28	27	3	27	43	4.70	1.45

A solid end to the season hasn't stopped speculation from some that, due to the kind of money he'll get through arbitration this year, he should be considered a non-tender candidate. The bullpen is already considered to be a position of strength for the Twins in '10, with Matt Guerrier, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares all performing well this season, Pat Neshek due to be back and ready to pitch and, of course, Joe Nathan at the end of it all.

Is $2,000,000+ too much to pay for a relief pitcher who isn't a closer? You could argue it's too much to pay a closer. But with Nathan, Guerrier and Rauch all making millions in the 'pen, is it a wise decision for this organization to spend so much in an area typically manned by less expensive players? There are options, internally as well as externally.

Personally I'm optimistic about the relief corps next season, but I still think Crain needs to stick around. If he's part of a trade, okay, I get it, but with the troubles this team had with the 'pen for most of the season I'm not above thinking that depth isn't a bad thing to had. Especially considering how Jesse pitched down the stretch. If we want the bullpen to really be a strength for the Twins in 2010, Crain should be a part of it.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Glen Perkins	6-7	18	17	0	0	0	0	96.1	120	64	63	13	23	45	5.89	1.48

There's been a lot of publicized stress between Perkins and the organization over the last few months. No matter who you think is right, if anyone really is, there is strain on the relationship. If both sides decide to work through it, good for them, but I'm not sure that can happen.

Around the site it's been discussed that Perk could be part of a trade package. I think that's more likely than a non-tender, but you never know. This one is a tricky call, and a lot of it depends more on whether the two sides can kiss and make up, rather than anything financial or roster space related.

Drew Butera

#71 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Aug 09, 1983

This is a reality, although it may surprise some. There are a lot of good catchers in this system, with Joe Mauer and Jose Morales sitting right at the top. Wilson Ramos is already on the 40-man roster. With Drew there's a real possibility of the Twins being able to slip him through waivers and re-sign him off the 40-man, but if the organization wants a little flexibility with their roster (which they do need) Butera might be one of the odd men out.

Jason Pridie

#11 / Center Field / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-1

Weight: 205

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Oct 09, 1983

I think that facial hair is reason enough, but realistically there isn't much more you can expect from Pridie going forward. It's looking more and more like his triple-A campaign for the Rays in 2007 was indeed a fluke, as he continues to strike out without walking or really making good, consistent contact. And with younger, better performing outfielders like Rene Tosoni on their way up and deserving playing time, it would surprise me to see Pridie back in Rochester in 2010.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Justin Huber	1	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.500	.500	.500

Justin had a fine season in Rochester, and while he's getting on a bit in age it's interesting that both Randy Ruiz and Garrett Jones (players of a similar makeup) went on to have career years with the Blue Jays and Pirates respectively. Huber is capable of that kind of production if we're looking at his minor league numbers. But it's unlikely a player of his limited defensive skills would be able to find regular playing time with the Twins, and no doubt a guy like Erik Lis is due a promotion to Rochester.

There is space in the majors for players like Huber, but it has to be with the right club who can afford him a roster spot. He's not a bad insurance policy, the kind of guy you can look at and say "okay, maybe", but I'm not sure this is the right organization for him.

What are your thoughts?

The Bottom Line: Twins Struggle to Hold Leads VS Yankees

Jesse — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 03:04:47 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Neibergall - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano throws during the first inning of Game 3 of the American League division baseball series against the New York Yankees on Sunday, Oct. 11, 2009, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

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Twins 1, Yankees 4

Every game of this series saw the Twins take a lead. In game one it was 2-0. In game two it was 1-0...and then 3-1. Tonight it was 1-0, again. And with the exception of game one, which was all Yankees all the time after the top of the third inning, games two and three could have been won by the Twins if only they could lock it down.

Nick Blackburn pitched very well in game two. And back home, Carl Pavano pitched an absolute gem in game three. Pavano struck out nine Yankee hitters in seven innings, walked nobody and allowed just five hits. Sadly, two of those hits came in the top of the seventh, when Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada each went deep.

Ron Mahay, Jon Rauch and Jose Mijares each walked a batter in the ninth, loading the bases for Joe Nathan with just one out. Nick Punto ignored a stop sign and was thrown out as he tried to dive back to third base. Jason Kubel upped his strikeout total to nine in the series. It's hard not to be a little bitter right now, to not have a sour taste in your mouth, but if you're looking to point a finger for the outcome of this series it can only be pointed at the team we love. And somehow, that makes it even worse.

It was a spectacular season. And that's all I'm going to say for tonight. No analysis, no name-calling, no wallowing in misery. The Minnesota Twins are the AL Central Division champions, and they played their tails off to earn that title. But the fact that I feel like I do only goes to show me how much this team means to me, and I already know that by tomorrow morning I'll be looking forward to the off-season, with the hope that next year...next year...might be the season we finally bring home the World Series trophy.

Congratulations to the New York Yankees, who advance to the ALCS. They made the plays they needed to make, and they took advantage of every single mistake the Twins made in this series. Which is exactly what you expect a championship-caliber team to do, big market or small markeet. Or mid-market, in Minnesota's case.

Thanks for a great season, everybody. I'll see you tomorrow.

Stars of the Game
Joe Mauer: Playing the role of MVP, Joe picked up the Twins' lone RBI of the night.
Denard Span: Two hits for the leadoff guy, along with a stolen base. Solid night.
Michael Cuddyer: A pair of hits for Cuddles, who also had a strong night.
Matt Guerrier: A big scoreless eighth inning.
Carl Pavano: Seven innings of fantastic ball, it was the best I've seen him all year. I definitely would like to see him back next season.

Tears
Nick Punto: After starting a rally with a leadoff double in the eighth, he ran through a stop sign from Scott Ulger on Span's chopper up the middle. It killed a rally the team desperately needed.
Brendan Harris: Hitless in big spots tonight.
Jose Morales: Looked overmatched at times; still looking forward to seeing him as Joe's backup next season.
Jason Kubel: Overmatched at all times. Nine strikeouts in the series with three more tonight. Extremely disappointing, sorry Patches.
Ron Mahay, Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares: Walking the bases loaded, with the team on the ropes. It doesn't get any worse than that, it really doesn't.

Respect
Alex Rodrigez: I hate the fact that you're such a great ballplayer. I liked him before he came to New York. Like a lot of players.
Andy Pettitte: Pitched a great game. One of the all-time great post-season pitchers.
Mariano Rivera: Continues to amaze, even at this point of his career. His buzz-saw of Mauer to end the Minnesota threat in the eighth was sick.

Poll

Where does your allegience lie for the ALCS?

New York Yankees

139 votes

Los Angeles Angels

274 votes

Actually, a team from the NL

92 votes

505 votes | Poll has closed

Mauer's MVP Beats Greinke's Cy Young, Twins Stave Off Comeback

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 00:12:08 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel, left, Michael Cuddyer, center and Joe Mauer, right, celebrate after scoring on a three-run double by Delmon Young off Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke in the sixth inning of a baseball game Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, in Minneapolis. It was the final series in the Metrodome. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 5, Royals 4

There are no shortages of heroes in Minnesota tonight. A four-run sixth disappeared, but today the Twins weren't going to be denied.

For five and a half innings, Zack Greinke and Nick Blackburn traded zeros. The game's first hit didn't even come until Orlando Cabrera led off the bottom of the fourth, but for more than half of the contest it was a beautiful pitcher's duel. Stressful? Yes. But beautiful.

The Twins finally drew blood in the bottom of the sixth. Nick Punto drew an eight-pitch walk off Greinke to lead off the frame, before Denard "ideal leadoff guy" Span dropped down a made-to-order bunt on the first pitch he saw. With LNP standing on second base, Greinke's pitches began to sit high in the zone. He managed to get Cabrera to ground out to third base, but he wasn't able to keep Punto from advancing. With two out and the game still knotted at zero, up stepped Joe Mauer.

Greinke tried to bust Mauer up and in twice, with Joe taking atypical chances and taking cuts on them both and fouling them off. A pair of sliders just under the strike zone followed, leading to a 1-2 count before Greinke tried to come up and in with another fastball. This time, Joe did exactly what he meant to. He pulled it through the right side, and Punto finally scored to give the Twins a 1-0 lead.

Then the Royals ace came off the rails, just a little bit. Jason Kubel took an outer-half fastball and shot it down the left field line, for a moment saving Greinke from a run as it hit the turf and then bounced over the fence, keeping Mauer on third base. Then he hit Michael Cuddyer with a 94-mph fastball. For the third time in two days, the Royals loaded the bases for Delmon Young.

Maybe Greinke was feeling confident. Maybe he just didn't locate the ball where he wanted it to go. Maybe he and Miguel Olivo were over-thinking their strategy. For whatever reason, Greinke served Delmon a 95-mph first-pitch fastball somewhere between the letters and the belly button, and as everyone's favorite play-by-play guy likes to say, he didn't miss it. Young went the other way, dropping the ball into right field, clearing the bases to give the Twins a 4-0 lead.

Kansas City stuck with their man, even after Jose Morales singled on the next pitch. Even Matt Tolbert swung at the first pitch he saw, and he hit it hard. But this time the ball was blind, and Minnesota's rally came to and end. So did Greinke's afternoon.

A Mike Jacobs homer in the top of the seventh put Kansas City on the board, but it was the eighth that, if you were watching or listening or at this game, should have put the fear of the baseball gods right into you. Olivo led it off with a double, signaling the end of Blackburn's night. Jose Mijares replaced him, and I'm starting to wonder if he's inside of his own head a bit after throwing at Adam Everett on Thursday. Alex Gordon took the third fastball he saw and deposited it over the right field fence, cutting Minnesota's lead to one. Another single saw Mijares get the hook for Jon Rauch, who did his job one batter too late.

Willie Bloomquist singled, moving something called Tug Hutlett to third with no outs in the inning. Rauch got Mitch Maier to roll into a double play, but it scored the tying run. The Metrodome fell silent, and if you weren't having images of whatever playoff hopes you had crashing down in your subconscious, then I envy you. For a game that looked so well in hand to fall apart so quickly, it didn't look good.

You know who didn't care? You know who said "Get on my back, I have broad shoulders and really big dimples and the bat of a hero"? Michael Cuddyer. The same guy who Greinke nailed two innings prior watched a pair of pitches miss the zone before he decided to take a chance. Dusty Hughes threw a changeup, as straight as it could possibly be, right over the plate at about Cuddyer's knees. Cuddles turned on it, and lauched it into the home run porch in left field. He breathed life back into the season, into the team, and into the fans.

Joe Nathan struck out a pair in a perfect ninth inning to pick up save number 47, and once again the Minnesota Twins have won. It's not over yet, kids. No matter what happens tonight, tomorrow matters. And if by some miracle the Tigers lose tonight, tomorrow matters even more.

Holy crap. Can they do this?

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-4, 2B, 3 RBI, .154 WPA)
#2: Nick Blackburn (7+ IP, 2 R, 5 K, 0 BB, .305 WPA)
#1: Michael Cuddyer (1-for-3, HR, RBI, 2 R, .245 WPA)

The Finish Line is Near: Tigers 7, Twins 2

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 11:45:15 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Magglio Ordonez and Ramon Santiago combined for five RBIs in the Tigers' 7-2 win over the Twins Wednesday night. Surely, that's what they're talking about in this photo.

Browse more photos »

It's so close. So very close. Tiger Town is leaning on the dugout rail in anticipation, ready to jump over it and take the field. And if the Detroit Tigers win one more time, we're going to celebrate.

Right now, all things seem possible. Heck, if the Tigers can beat Carl Pavano, what can't they do?

Pavano's mastery over the Tigers lineup was one of the most baffling aspects of this 2009 season. In five starts against Detroit, he had a 4-0 record and 1.69 ERA. Yet overall, he had a 4.86 ERA coming into Wednesday's game. So the Tigers were probably due to finally get to this guy, right?

Oh, they got to Pavano, all right. And did so early, pouncing on him in the second inning with four runs. The Tigers led off with on two singles and a walk. With the bases loaded and no outs, this would either be a chance to finally lay a smackdown on Pavano or commit an epic squandering. There was no squandering. Brandon Inge stroked a two-run double to left-center. Two batters later, Ramon Santiago singled to drive in two more runs.

But the Tigers weren't done with Pavano at that point. They had five games worth of frustration to take out on the guy. In the fifth inning, Detroit again loaded the bases on two singles and a walk. This time, however, there were two outs, so the squandering would not have been epic. But Magglio Ordonez made sure that didn't happen.

Ordonez jumped on a first-pitch fastball up in the strike zone, lacing into a wide-open gap in left-center field to clear the bases. (As I wrote for one of our overflow gamethreads, is there any more beautiful sight than a ball into the gap with nothing but green surrounding it?) That gave the Tigers seven runs, as many as Pavano had allowed altogether in his previous five starts versus Detroit.

The primary beneficiary of all that offense was Eddie Bonine, who could've used at least three of those runs last Friday in Chicago, but was surely happy with what he received Wednesday night.

Bonine provided a huge scare in the first inning, however, putting five straight Minnesota batters on base. With two runs already in, the Twins had the bases loaded with one out. Imminent disaster? Not this time. Jose Morales hit a groundball to second, which Placido Polanco and Santiago turned for a huge double play. That might have been the ballgame right there, as the Tigers took control soon thereafter.

So very close now. The Tigers' magic number is two. Can they push this pennant race over the finish line this afternoon?

Roar:

With 2.1 scoreless innings in relief of Bonine last night, Zach Miner now hasn't allowed a run in his last 12 innings.

And in a non-save situation with a five-run lead, Fernando Rodney got three straight groundball outs to finish out the game.

Comment of the Night:

Paging Kevin Rand. Kevin Rand to the field.

Pavano’s been mauled by a gaggle of determined Tigers. Bring the bandaids.

by wepri31

Twins Blow Opportunities, Can't Close Deficit To One

Jesse — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:09:13 -0000

More photos » by ED ZURGA - AP

I found this in my glove, I'm not sure what it does.

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Twins 1, Royals 4

Today's game is just what the title suggests--a lack of execution at opportune times. Or inopportune times, I think they were the same today. With Zack Greinke on the mound any and all teams need to take advantage of all chances they can get. That didn't happen.

Francisco Liriano had a terrible day. A 20-pitch first inning didn't net a run for the Royals, but it set the tone. The second inning saw Lizzy give up a pair of extra-base hits, a passed ball and a trio of walks, although only one of the free passes cost Minnesota. Yunieksy Betancourt got around on a 95-mph fastball for a three-run homer about halfway through the frame, and although it was all Kansas City would get it cost Liriano dearly. 25 pitches in the inning is all it took to chase him from the game with runners on the corners and two away. Jeff Manship applied pressure to the wound and momentarily stopped the bleeding.

Ultimately Liriano just couldn't consistently locate...well, anything. He tried taking something off his fastball, that didn't work. He reared back and got everything into the fastball, and if it actually hit the strikezone it probably got smacked. The changeup was useless, and without the fastball or the changeup the slider was useless, too. And once Liriano started to fly off the rails, all borderline pitches went in favor of the Royals...and rightfully so.

Still, the game was never out of hand. Orlando Cabrera doubled in the first, but was stranded. Jose Morales grounded into a double play to kill a possible rally in the second. With the bases loaded in the third Greinke got through Cabrera, then struck out Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel to escape unscathed. With two men on and nobody out in the sixth, the Royals Ace fought back to get three consecutive outs, allowing just one run. Morales and Matt Tolbert reached to lead off the seventh before Greinke sat down three in a row.

Crucial chances, all wasted. That's what great pitchers can do to a hot team, and that's what Greinke did to the Twins. He made us his bitches.

Kubel hit into Minnesota's second double play in the eighth, which was painful considering the single and hit-by-pitch that followed, which you know by now netted the Twins another zero in the frame. Denard Span and Cabrera hit back-to-back two out singles in the ninth, but Joakim Soria completed his two inning save by inducing Mauer to ground out to first base.

The Twins tried. They did. Their tide was simply stemmed at every opportunity. Cabrera stranded five runners. Mauer stranded six and Kubel stranded seven. It's not just about what you do, it's also about when you do it. Orlando and Joe combined for five hits today, but neither tallied a run batted in.

On the plus side the White Sox knocked off the Tigers to, once again, keep the deficit at two games. Tomorrow's opening tilt for the (as of yet) more serious series of the season takes on a far more intense nature as a result. Winning three of four would mean a tie for the division title with just three games to decide the crown. A series tie would reduce Minnesota's title hopes to a prayer, while anything less would guarantee elimination.

No stars and no duds tonight. It's time to focus on the Tigers.

Thanks once again to fischean for supplying us with an overflow thread. Even the moderators can't make every game, so kudos for stepping up! If one of the moderators aren't around anyone should feel free to step in and take it upon themselves to provide a thread where things don't slow down.

Twins Have Won 10 of 11: Who's Hot?

Jesse — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 14:06:38 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

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Let's run it down.

Michael Cuddyer, of course: .391/.404/.848 (no, that's not his OPS, that's his slugging percentage) with six homers and 18 RBI. 18, I hear you ask? 18.
Delmon Young's been playing regularly, and has collected multi-hit days six times over these 11 games. He's batting .349/.370/.558. He's even walked twice!
Denard Span has missed a couple games, but returned last night and picked up a pair of hits and an intentional base-on-balls. His OBP in this span is .375, which is actually below his season line but still just find for a leadoff hitter.
Nick Punto continues to hit well with an average of .294 and an OBP of .429. With a season OBP of .332, he currently is on base at a higher rate than any other middle infielder on the team. By a significant margin.
Orlando Cabrera has started hitting again, picking up a pair of big home runs. He's hitting .295/.347/.523.
In spite of going hitless last night, Jose Morales continues to look good at the plate and has appeared in seven games, with a .300/.400/.400 triple slash.
Am I forgetting anyone? Any hitters? Any hitters who are about to win their third batting title in four year? Oh yeah, Joe Mauer and his .457/.596/.686 line! Joe's picked up 16 hits, including a pair of doubles and a pair of homers, as well as 12 (TWELVE) walks. Add to that four intentional base-on-balls. And one strikeout.
Nick Blackburn has contributed 13.1 innings of two-run ball.
Carl Pavano hasn't been great, but has been good enough over three starts: 19 IP, 4.26 ERA. Not great, but the Twins have still won all three contests.
The Twins have also won all three of Brian Duensing's starts. Two shutout starts where the opposition couldn't score over 13.1 innings, and then a third that wasn't nearly as impressive.
Jesse Crain has strung together six consecutive scoreless appearances (although it's now been over a month since Crain has been charged with a run).
Just one run against Jose Mijares in seven appearances.
Five innings and six appearances under Matt Guerrier's belt have garnered opponents just one run.
How about the big man, Jon Rauch? Five scoreless appearances.
Joe Nathan has retired nine on strikes over 6.2 innings, giving up one run.

Lots of contributors over the last string of days, and it's been mucho exciting. Tonight we get to see the boys do it all over again.

Minnesota Twins 2010 Roster & Payroll (Part II)

Jesse — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 22:48:55 -0000

Thanks for some fantastic coversation on Tuesday! Milt on Tilt, Eric In Madison, Seth Speaks, clutterheart, Fetch9, ajmargarine and everyone else who contributed made for a great discussion, helped clarify some things while running some good back-and-forth over dollars and stats.

We'll start where we left off, which was discussing how internal options would help flesh out the depth chart. All players who aren't either under contract or arbitration-eligible (serfs) will be in italics. Serfs, simply because of how much they're being paid, their options and their experience, are the easiest players to theoretically replace with free agents. Some players will be listed on the depth chart at more than one position, but we should see pretty quickly which positions have talent and depth, and which positions have flexibility but not necessarily reliability.

Catcher: Joe Mauer, Jose Morales
First Base: Justin Morneau, Michael Cuddyer
Second Base: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Alexi Casilla, Matt Tolbert, Steven Tolleson
Third Base: Brian Buscher, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Nick Punto, Daniel Valencia, Luke Hughes
Shortstop: Nick Punto, Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe
Left Field: Denard Span, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel
Center Field: Carlos Gomez, Denard Span
Right Field: Michael Cuddyer, Denard Span, Jason Kubel
Designated Hitter: Jason Kubel

Starting Pitcher: Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Francisco Liriano, Glen Perkins, Anthony Swarzak, Boof Bonser
Relief Pitcher: Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, Pat Neshek, Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano

You can make an argument for another player or two being on this list somewhere, but realistically if the Twins went into next season without picking up a single free agent, this would be the essential core of players. From this group you'd need to choose 25 players.

Before we get our estimated payroll figure for those 25, we have to update our estimates for what our nine arbitration-eligible players could be worth next year. 117 comments from Tuesday's post, and using a healthy cross-section of responses as guidelines we'll alter our estimates to the following.

Player	Original Estimate	Updated Estimate
Boof Bonser	$500,000	$900,000
Carlos Gomez	$600,000	$1,000,000
Brendan Harris	$600,000	$1,100,000
Francisco Liriano	$550,000	$1,500,000
Pat Neshek	$500,000	$700,000
Glen Perkins	$550,000	$900,000
Delmon Young	$1,750,000	$1,750,000
Jesse Crain	$2,300,000	$2,300,000
Matt Guerrier	$2,100,000	$2,600,000
Totals	$9,450,000	$12,750,000

We've added $3.3 million dollars in arbitration raises. Add this new total to the committed $62,267,000 and your contractual and arbitration players are making an estimated $75,017,000. Add another eight players at the major league minimum plus a little change, and right now I have to believe that without adding a single free agent the Twins will go to Opening Day with a minimum of $78.5 million dollars. We'll call it an even $80, just in case I've been too conservative in any estimates.

That would constitute a $15 million dollar bump from Opening Day 2009, and it's far and away a franchise record. But what will the front office's limit be for spending this off-season? Will they be allowed to add another $5 million? $10 million? Some on this site have speculated the organization could go so far as to raise payroll to $100,000, even before the team has played a game in its new stadium. I tend to this that's pretty high. I also think this team will be hesitant to reach to $90 million, if only because it's so far removed from any ceiling this club has ever seen.

For now, today, until we hear something different we'll just throw out the number of $87,000,000. Some will think that's too high and a lot will think it's too low, but it's a fair number.

One look at the above depth chart and it's pretty easy to point a finger, run it across a few names and say Okay, So This Is Where We Should Start. Those places, in no particular order, should be starting pitching, shortstop, third base and second base. Check here for a current list of potential free agents, but here's a list of players who could potentially cost $7 million or less per season.

Starting Pitchers: Erik Bedard, Daniel Cabrera, Doug Davis, Josh Fogg, Jason Marquis, Brett Myers, Vincente Padilla, Carl Pavano, Brad Penny, Mark Prior, Jarrod Washburn, Randy Wolf

I purposely left a few names off this list, but this is still fairly exhaustive. Which one of these guys, if any, would constitute enough value for the Twins to shell out millions of dollars with the hope that their additional wins would be worth the value over in-house, cheaper, more familiar options? If you only have $7 million to spend, are you willing to blow it all on one veteran starter? Or maybe the gambling type, and would bring in Prior on a one-year, incentive laden deal? Hell, he'll only be 28.

Third Base: Adrian Beltre, Joe Crede, Bobby Crosby, Mark DeRosa, Nomar Garciaparra, Troy Glaus, Miguel Tejada, Juan Uribe

See anyone you like here? Crede likes it in Minneapolis, would he take another incentive-laden deal based on plate appearances or games played? Or does your gamber's mentality take you to Glaus?

Second Base: Ronnie Belliard, Jamey Carroll, Mark DeRosa, Jerry Hairston Jr, Adam Kennedy, Placido Polanco

Carroll is having a good season for a bad ballclub. Belliard is awful. Do you like DeRosa's versatility enough to pay your entire $7 million stipend? Because he'll come at a cost. Polanco's got a big head, so that's fun.

Shortstop: Orlando Cabrera, Alex Cora, Bobby Crosby, Adam Everett, Khalil Greene, Marco Scutaro, Miguel Tejada, Omar Vizquel

The reality is that no matter where you look in these four positional categories, a vast majority of what you see are either retreads trying to make a comeback, older guys hanging on, younger(ish) players who really aren't very good or other warts-ridden profiles. Keep in mind that this is a list of guys who could make $7 million or less per season, but even those who could make more than that aren't all that great. The few diamonds in the rough will be snatched up, quickly, and will likely be overpaid due to simple economics. So long, Jamey Carroll.

It's not a good free agent class, but in some ways this organization doesn't have a choice going into next season. Not signing a free agent will seem, to the masses (ignorant or not), like just another "stingy" move by a "stingy" front office, although there's been nothing stingy about this organization for years. It's a new stadium being filled with a handful of star players, and the public will expect the Twins to make a splash. Right or wrong.

How would you handle it? It's a complicated decision, and for a team that has more than its share of needs there won't be endless millions to throw around. Unless, of course, you want to make trades or cuts...but that's another story for another day.

I'll leave you to ponder for the time being, on the final off-day for the Twins as we head into the season's final trio of series. Let's enjoy some fall baseball tonight, cheer on the Indians, and I'll see you tomorrow.

Twins Sweep Indians, Cuddyer Shows Off

Jesse — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 22:23:04 -0000

More photos » by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

Minnesota Twins' Joe Mauer pwns Cleveland Indians pitcher Aaron Laffey during the fourth inning of a baseball game in Minneapolis, on Wednesday, Sept. 16, 2009. (AP Photo/Ann Heisenfelt)

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Twins 7, Indians 3

For most of the game, this wasn't even a close contest. What the Twins were't hitting hard, the Indians couldn't field, and for anyone that reached base off Nick Blackburn, well, Nick had the answer. He blanked Cleveland for six innings before getting into a bit of trouble in the seventh.

He'd only thrown 80 pitches as he climbed the mound for the top of the seventh, but it didn't take long for the Indians to climb back into what had looked like a done deal. Travis Hafner's leadoff double was followed by a first-pitch homer by Matt LaPorta, cutting the score to 5-2. A hard-hit flyball preceeded another Indians hit, and Blackburn was pulled. Jose Mijares put out the fire like he has countless times this season, and Cleveland would never get any closer.

Delmon Young was the only Minnesota starter to not reach base today, with a number of guys picking up multi-hit days. Matt Tolbert laid down a beautiful bunt single in the second inning before adding a double in the fifth. Jose Morales continues to look great at the dish, laying some wood on a pair of doubles off Aaron Laffey. Denard Span picked up a pair of singles, Joe Mauer continues to pull away for the AL biting title thanks in no small part to a bases-loaded single, and Michael Cuddyer? Well, Cuddyer continues to be Minnesota's leader. On and off the field.

Cuddles picked up a trio of hits today, including an RBI single to lead off the day's scoring, a solo homer in the fifth and a run-scoring double in the seventh that helped erase the two runs Cleveland scored in the top half of the inning. Now hitting .274/.337/.511 on the season, this is the kind of offense the Twins will find even more invaluable now that they're Morneau-less the rest of the way this year.

It was interesting in the final third of the game. After Cleveland brought the score to 5-2 only to be turned away in the bottom of the inning by the Minnesota offense, they didn't go quietly. Jesse Crain allowed a run in the top of the eighth after Mijares tasted trouble, before Matt Guerrier put out another fire. The following inning he got into trouble himself, unable to put Cleveland away with a big lead. He allowed a pair of singles and a ground out before Joe Nathan was called upon for the fourth consecutive game.

Shin-Soo Choo and Jhonny Peralta struck out to end the game quickly, with Peralta looking particularly horrible. Blackburn was good before Mijares bailed him out. Mijares was good before Crain...well...before Guerrier bailed them both out. And Guerrier was good before Nathan bailed him out for his 41st save. So that was fun.

The Twins won again, for the fourth consecutive time. It momentarily pulls the them within four games of the Tigers, but that will again chance by the time the calendar turns. With any luck Minnesota could be 3.5 games down tomorrow, which is an off day for the Twins. If the Royals are extremely generous and win on Thursday, it could be three.

Or it could be five. We'll see.

This was a big series for a team that seems eternally on the brink. Beating teams you're supposed to beat is always a good thing.

Stars
#3: Nick Blackburn (6.1 IP, 2 R, 3 K, 0 BB, 8 H, .199 WPA)
#2: Joe Mauer (2-for-3, BB, 2 RBI, R, .137 WPA)
#1: Michael Cuddyer (3-for-4, HR, 2B, 3 RBI, 2 R, .109 WPA)