SB Nation - Mike Piazza

Looking Back: Todd Zeile

Alex Nelson — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 20:03:42 -0000

After looking at Robin Ventura and Kevin Appier—two guys who, with a little better luck during their careers, might be solid Hall of Fame candidates—we'll next turn our attention to the guys I can't even pretend are realistic Hall candidates, starting with Todd Zeile.

Of all the Mets teams during my lifetime, the 1999 Mets were my favorite. With an infield of John Olerud, Edgardo Alfonzo, Robin Ventura, and Rey Ordonez, and Mike Piazza behind the plate, those Mets were a rare offensive-minded team in Flushing. After the season, I was crushed when the Mets failed to sign Olerud to the three-year contract he wanted—Steve Phillips sort of gave up when Olerud expressed his desire to go home to Seattle. Instead, Phillips turned to veteran third baseman Todd Zeile to fill in the gap at first, signing him to a three-year, $18-million contract.

I thought it was a huge mistake at first, one that the Mets, competing with a dominant team like the Braves, might not recover from. Take a look at these WAR totals:

Year	Olerud	Zeile
1997	5.2	2.2
1998	8.1	2.7
1999	5.3	1.4

Those are not comparable players, folks. Then, when you consider that Zeile was shifting from third to first, was three years older than Olerud, and signed essentially the same contract, it really didn't look like a very smart move to me. And it wasn't, because Olerud was still the better player, both in 2000 and going forward.

But you know what? It really didn't cost the Mets anything in 2000. Almost the same team from 1999 returned in 2000—the notable differences were no Johnny O. at first base and Roger Cedeno and Octavio Dotel were swapped for Mike Hampton—and despite some players letting down the team (Darryl Hamilton, Rickey Henderson, Ventura), the Mets made it to the World Series anyway. Olerud had something of a down year, hitting .285/.392/.439. Meanwhile, Zeile hit pretty well, producing a .268/.356/.467 line with 22 homers, 36 doubles, and 79 RBI in a lineup that otherwise struggled.

And the biggest surprise, to me at least, was how good a defender at first base Zeile was. He was pretty brutal at third, but he was a mobile first baseman with more polish than I expected from the guy who committed more errors in the 1990's than anyone. Total Zone has him at +12 for the 2000 season, which is actually a couple runs more than Olerud was worth with the glove. Olerud was still the better player, overall, but Zeile didn't represent enough of a drop-off to really cost the Mets anything, at least not in 2000.

2001 was another matter, unfortunately, when Zeile was pretty much done—his power vanished, although his on-base ability remained—and the Mets were forced to trade him for Jeromy Burnitz's bad contract in a three-team deal with the Brewers and Rockies. In the long run, Zeile was an error; however, the move was made with the short-term in mind first and foremost, and in the short-term it was close enough to a success for me.

The Mets, of course, brought him back for his final big-league season and even let the veteran return to his original position for a couple games: catcher. There was more than a little desperation involved, but it was also at Zeile's request. Manager Art Howe also took him out early in his final game, so that his final plate appearance could be a homerun.

Player	Career	Top 3	Top 5	Per 162
Todd Zeile	15.1	7.2	8.6	1.13

Nowhere near a Hall of Famer, but he did play well enough to enjoy a long career. Back in 2001, Bill James ranked him 81st among all third basemen, writing "A Brooks Robinson clone as a hitter, but more of a Larry Parrish at third base." Sounds about right.

A Look Back At Pedro Guerrero

Eric Stephen — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 20:20:07 -0000

via www.sculu.com

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MLB Network is showing a slew of old All-Star games and highlights this Thanksgiving weekend, and I stumbled across the 1981 All-Star Game on Friday. This game was on August 9, later than any other midsummer classic, because of the nearly two-month long strike. This game, from Cleveland's Municipal Stadium, was the kickoff to the "second half" of the season.

I tuned in during the bottom of the seventh inning, and noticed Dusty Baker in left field, incidentally during the only season besides Matt Kemp's 2009 in which a Dodger outfielder captured Silver Slugger and Gold Glove awards. It turns out that I missed the pitching performances of Dodgers Fernando Valenzuela and Burt Hooton, but I also missed the All-Star debut of one Pedro Guerrero.

Guerrero will always hold a special place in my heart, as he was the best hitter on those mid-eighties Dodger teams when I first started watching regularly. My first full season as a fan was 1985, and Guerrero put on a show that season. He caught fire in June, tying a record for the month by hitting 15 home runs, then amazingly was even better in July, hitting .460/.563/.794.

I remember looking at the back of his baseball cards, and noticing Guerrero had good seasons in 1982 & 1983 -- he finished third and fourth, respectively, in the NL MVP voting in those years -- but I was surprised to notice him in the 1981 All-Star Game. In 1982 & 1983, Guerrero hit the magical 30 & 100 numbers, the only time a Dodger had 30 home runs and 100 RBI in between Steve Garvey in 1977 and Mike Piazza in 1993. But in 1981, he only played in 98 games, so I had always dismissed that season as a partial one for "Pete." I knew he ended up as one of the tri-MVPs of the World Series that year, but the low counting numbers always stuck in my mind. I forgot about the strike, of course. Guerrero was in fact a regular player that season, as the season was limited to 110 games. Guerrero started 93 of those games, including 51 of 57 in the "first half" (before the strike).

He was hitting .325/.375/.550 at the break in 1981, one of the best marks in the league. That got me to thinking, just how good was Guerrero? He missed most of 1986 after injuring his leg sliding into third base during spring training, so I will concentrate on 1981-1985, when Guerrero played regularly.

Year	G	R	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
1981	98	46	12	48	.300	.365	.464	.829	138
1982	150	87	32	100	.304	.378	.536	.914	156
1983	160	87	32	103	.298	.373	.531	.904	150
1984	144	85	16	72	.303	.358	.462	.819	131
1985	137	99	33	87	.320	.422	.577	.999	181
Totals	689	404	125	410	.305	.380	.517	.897	152

Guerrero's 1981-1985 was one of the greatest five-year stretches in Dodger history:

Highest 5-Year OPS+ in Dodger History
Player	Years	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	OPS+
Mike Piazza	1993-1997	.337/.401/.583	.984	164
Duke Snider	1953-1957	.311/.407/.618	1.025	161
Reggie Smith	1976-1980	.299/.389/.532	.921	153
Pedro Guerrero	1981-1985	.305/.380/.517	.897	152

How did Guerrero compare to the rest of baseball during that stretch? Very, very well. There were 137 players in MLB who had 2,000 plate appearances, and here is where Guerrero stood:

Pedro Guerrero 1981-1985
Stat	Guerrero	MLB Rank
AVG	.305	5th
OBP	.380	12th
SLG	.517	4th
OPS	.897	4th
OPS+	152	3rd
HR	125	10th
Runs	404	16th
RBI	410	t-15th

I always felt bad for Guerrero in that he was traded in August 1988 and didn't get a chance to get another ring with the Dodgers, but he did have a great run in Dodger blue.

How Dodgers Became Dodgers: Where Pedro Astacio Becomes Blake DeWitt

Eric Stephen — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 17:00:16 -0000

More photos » by Ed Andrieski - AP

Blake and DeWitt are two of seven players currently on the 40-man roster who have links to Dodgers past.

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Major league 40-man rosters were set last Friday in preparation for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in two weeks. With the free agency period just starting, there are many open spots on rosters throughout baseball. The Dodgers, for instance, have 33 players on their 40-man roster. Over the next few weeks, free agents will be signed and some players will be non-tendered, so rosters will change, but for now let's look at the 33 Dodgers and how they became Dodgers.

Almost half of the Dodgers currently on the 40-man roster -- 16 of 33 -- were drafted by the team with their own draft pick:

Draft(ed) Dodgers
Player	Year	Round	Pick

James Loney	2002	1	19
Jonathan Broxton	2002	2	60
James McDonald	2002	11	331
Eric Stults	2002	15	451
Russell Martin	2002	17	511

Chad Billingsley	2003	1	24
Xavier Paul	2003	4	121
Matt Kemp	2003	6	181
Lucas May	2003	8	241
A.J. Ellis	2003	18	541

Scott Elbert	2004	1	17
Javy Guerra	2004	4	118
Cory Wade	2004	10	298

Brent Leach	2005	6	196
Trayvon Robinson	2005	10	316

Clayton Kershaw	2006	1	7

These are pretty straight forward original transactions, as are these other four amateur free agents:

Amateur Free Agents
Player	Date	Origin
Hong-Chih Kuo	6/19/99	Taiwan
Ramon Troncoso	6/20/02	Dominican Republic
Chin-Lung Hu	1/31/03	Taiwan
Kenley Jansen	11/17/04	Curacao

That makes 20 of 33 Dodgers who are with are with their original club. In addition to them, there are six more Dodgers that joined the club independent of other players. That is, their acquisitions aren't linked to anyone else:

Free Agents
Player	Date
Rafael Furcal	12/19/05
Juan Pierre	11/22/06
Travis Schlichting*	10/7/07
Hiroki Kuroda	12/16/07
Ronald Belisario*	1/13/09
Charlie Haeger*	1/17/09
*minor league free agents

This is where we get to the fun part of this exercise, as reminded by Rocknjosie in her excellent Fan Post last month. There are seven Dodgers left that were acquired as the result, directly or indirectly, of previous transactions. These are listed in chronological order based on the earliest transaction.

Andre Ethier
Date	Transaction
6/1/88	drafted Mike Piazza in the 62nd round (#1390 overall)
8/4/96	signed Luke Allen as an undrafted free agent
12/8/96	signed Todd Zeile as a free agent
5/14/98	traded Piazza and Zeile to Marlins for Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jim Eisenreich, Charles Johnson, and Manuel Barrios
11/18/00	signed Franklin Gutierrez as an amateur free agent
1/15/02	traded Sheffield to Braves for Odalis Perez, Brian Jordan, and Andrew Brown
1/17/03	traded Allen to Colorado for Jason Romano
4/3/04	traded Romano to Tampa Bay for Antonio Perez
4/3/04	traded Gutierrez and Brown to Cleveland for Milton Bradley
12/13/05	traded Bradley and Perez to Oakland for Ethier
Total Related Players: 9

Blake DeWitt
Date	Transaction
11/21/87	signed Pedro Astacio as an amateur free agent
6/14/91	signed Ismael Valdez as an amateur free agent
8/28/94	signed Luke Prokopec as an amateur free agent
8/19/97	traded Astacio to Rockies for Eric Young
12/12/99	traded Young and Valdez to Cubs for Terry Adams, Brian Stephenson, and Chad Ricketts
12/31/01	traded Prokopec and Ricketts to Toronto for Cesar Izturis and Paul Quantrill
12/17/03	Quantrill signed as a free agent with the Yankees
6/7/04	drafted DeWitt with a compensation first round pick (#28 overall)
Total Related Players: 6

Ivan DeJesus
Date	Transaction
7/7/94	signed Adrian Beltre as an amateur free agent
12/17/04	Beltre signed as a free agent with Seattle
6/7/05	drafted DeJesus with a compensation second round pick (#51 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Jason Repko
Date	Transaction
1/16/96	signed Scott Radinsky as a free agent
11/23/98	Radinsky signed as a free agent with St. Louis
6/2/99	drafted Repko with a compensation supplemental pick (#37 overall)
Total Related Players: 1

Manny Ramirez
Date	Transaction
12/12/98	signed Kevin Brown as a free agent
6/3/03	drafted Andy LaRoche in the 39th round (#1171 overall)
12/13/03	traded Brown to Yankees for Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, Brandon Weeden, and cash
2/23/06	Weaver signed as a free agent with the Angels
6/6/06	drafted Bryan Morris with a compensation first round pick (#26 overall)
7/31/08	traded LaRoche and Morris to Pittsburgh in a 3-team trade; received Manny and cash from Boston
Total Related Players: 4

Casey Blake
Date	Transaction
8/13/04	signed Carlos Santana as an amateur free agent
6/7/05	drafted Jon Meloan in fifth round (#166 overall)
7/26/08	traded Santana and Meloan to Cleveland for Blake, and cash
Total Related Players: 2

George Sherrill
Date	Transaction
6/7/05	drafted Josh Bell in the second round (#74 overall)
6/7/05	drafted Steven Johnson in the 13th round (#406 overall)
7/30/09	traded Bell and Johnson to Baltimore for Sherrill
Total Related Players: 2

Carlos Ruiz = Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench, and Mike Piazza all rolled into one

Phil Gurnee — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 16:25:19 -0000

More photos » by Matt Slocum - AP

about 1 month ago: Philadelphia Phillies' catcher Carlos Ruiz catches a foul pop by Los Angeles Dodgers' Ronnie Belliard to end Game 3 of the National League Championship baseball series Sunday, Oct. 18, 2009, in Philadelphia. The Phillies beat Los Angeles 11-0 to take a 2-1 series lead. (AP Photo/Matt Slocum)

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An exaggeration to be sure, but WTF, this guy is killing us and has been all year. It seems like he's been doing it forever but really he just started this year. His career OPS is .716 but against Dodger pitching it is 1.132 and that was not including the post season.

That is a bit misleading, when we look at those splits we find that all of that damage has happened in 2009. In 2009 he really is those three great HOF catchers rolled into one. During the regular season he bashed us in 29 plate appearances to the tune of .571/.714/1.000/1.714. He combined seven walks with eight hits to get on base 15 times in 29 plate appearances. Out of those 8 hits were four extra base hits.

Still this is Carlos Ruiz, not Joe Mauer, so eventually skills should lose out over luck, right? That couldn't come soon enough for Dodgers fans because after three playoff games Carlos Ruiz has taken that 2009 regular season performance and doubled down. Ruiz has been on base eight times in only fourteen plate appearances. Five hits, double, home run, four runs batted, three more walks, and you are looking at a 1.852 OPS. When you are getting owned by the number eight hitter in the lineup your chances of winning a seven game series are not very high.

Dodgers Experiencing Flashbacks To 1996

Eric Stephen — Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:35:30 -0000

More photos » by Keith Birmingham - AP

Andre Ethier is one home run away from tying a Dodger record

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Entering the final weekend of the 1996 season, the Dodgers hosted the Padres with a two-game lead in the National League West. The wild card was also in play, as Montreal was still three games behind with three to play.

Montreal lost to the Braves Friday night to clinch a playoff spot for the Dodgers, who lost game one to San Diego. On Saturday, the Padres won again, which clinched a playoff spot for them as well. The two teams came to Dodger Stadium on Sunday in a tie for the division, but it was really just a battle of seeding. The Padres of course did end up completing the sweep, thanks in part to former Dodger Chris Gwynn's two-run double in the 11th inning.

The Dodgers were deflated, sure. But they also made the playoffs, so the pain of that loss was mitigated. The Dodgers were swept in the first round by the Braves, so the easy thing to do is blame that playoff loss on how the Dodgers ended the season. However, the hard-charging Padres, fresh off their sweep of the Dodgers, went into the first round with all the momentum, and...also got swept, by the Cardinals.

Say it with me again: It's not how you play this week, it's how you play next week and beyond that determine playoff success.

This weekend feels like 1996 all over again, only the playoff spots were decided long before the final Sunday. The Dodgers punched their ticket to the postseason way back on Saturday in Pittsburgh, and the Rockies sealed the deal by beating the Brewers at home yesterday. In terms of playoff seeding and home field advantage, however, there are still a lot of things in play.

Team	W-L	GB
Dodgers	93-66	---
Phillies	92-67	1
Cardinals	91-68	2
Rockies	91-68	2

Any of the four NL playoff teams can still clinch the number one seed. The Dodgers are in the driver's seat for this. Their magic number with each team is two. Yes, that's right: the Dodgers are in such a funk right now, their magic number for the division actually went up!* Two wins this weekend secures the Dodgers as the number one seed, with home field advantage in the first two rounds.

*The magic number has been two over the Rockies since last Saturday night, but for intents and purposes it was one because any tie between the two teams gave the division to the Dodgers. However, the Rockies and Dodgers can't tie anymore, and any win is worth two in the world of magic numbers, since the other team is also losing.

Tonight's game features the best pitching match-up of the series, with Randy Wolf facing off with Ubaldo Jimenez. Wolf had what he called a terrible start on June 24 against the White Sox, giving up five runs and three home runs in 3.1 innings. However, since then he has been great, pitching at least six innings in 17 straight starts, and is 8-3 with a 2.87 ERA and 3.49 FIP during that stretch. If Wolf, who has thrown 209.1 innings this year, gets more than four outs this evening, he will set a new career high in innings pitched.

NL IP Since May 1
Pitcher	IP
Adam Wainwright	197.2
Bronson Arroyo	195.1
Dan Haren	194.1
Tim Lincecum	194.0
Ubaldo Jimenez	193.0

The Dodgers knocked around Ubaldo Jimenez twice in successive starts in April, but he has blossomed quite nicely into a genuine ace. Since the beginning of May, Jimenez has pitched six innings or longer in 27 of 28 starts, and has thrown seven innings or more in 18 of those starts. Over that span, he is 13-9 with a 3.12 ERA and a 3.32 FIP, and has averaged 6.89 innings per start.

Since May 1, Jimenez is fifth in the National League with 193 innings, but he's likely to pass three of the four ahead of him since Adam Wainwright is the only one besides Jimenez scheduled to pitch this weekend.

So when you see a stat tonight that says Jimenez is 0-3 with a 7.77 ERA in four starts against the Dodgers this season don't be fooled. In his third start against them, May 27 in Colorado, Jimenez had allowed just two runs entering the seventh inning before giving up three more. In his last start, June 29 at Dodger Stadium, Jimenez was even better, allowing just two runs over seven innings, in a game the Dodgers won late because they have Andre Ethier and the Rockies don't. The Dodgers will have their hands full with Jimenez tonight.

Most HR at Dodger Stadium
Player	Year	HR
Gary Sheffield	2000	23
Adrian Beltre	2004	23
Andre Ethier	2009	22
Mike Piazza	1997	22

Andre Ethier has hit 22 home runs at home this season, which is one shy of the Dodger Stadium record, jointly held by Gary Sheffield (in 2000) and Adrian Beltre (in 2004).

The first 50,000 fans at the game tonight will receive a replica of Tommy Lasorda's Hall of Fame plaque, as part of a celebration of his 60 years in the Dodger organization. You know, Vin Scully also has 60 years with the organization...

The Dodgers will honor their second-round draft pick, Garrett Gould, on the field before the game tonight.

This weekend is filled with True Blue LA at Dodger Stadium. Tonight, Phil Gurnee will be in the press box, followed by True Blue LA night tomorrow as 32 close friends and family convene at the greatest place on Earth, and I will be in the press box for Sunday's regular season finale. There will be celebrating this weekend at Dodger Stadium, and True Blue LA will be heavily involved.

**********

Be sure to check out Xeifrank's simulation of tonight's game here.

Game Time: 7:10pm

TV: Prime Ticket

Baseball Reference Preview

MASN's Rob Dibble And The Washington Nationals' Elijah Dukes Talk Hitting.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 14 Sep 2009 19:07:04 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

"Elijah Dukes sends a DY WAVE to the dugout." -- The Washington Nationals Elijah Dukes motions back to his teammates after hitting a double in the first inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays on Friday, June 12, 2009 in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Brian Blanco)

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Washington's hard-hitting right-fielder Elijah Dukes conducted a batting cage interview with MASN tv Analyst Rob Dibble for broadcast before Sunday's series finale against the Florida Marlins in which Dukes talked about his approach at the plate and the changes he's made over the last few months as he's become more and more comfortable and productive offensively for the Nationals.

Rob Dibble: Where does it start for you, does it start before the game looking over some film of a pitcher, does it start in the the on deck circle or when you get in the batter's box?

Elijah Dukes: "We look at film, try to look at the film and try to get an understanding on his pitch selection towards power hitters. You wouldn't necessarily look at him pitching against like a (Nyjer) Morgan, you want try to match yourself up against somebody of your current standards when you're hitting, like I look at Ryan Zimmerman at bats, Willingham at bats, you know, guys with power from the right side, because that's normally how they would pitch me. And, over the last couple games I've been noticing they pitch me and Willingham the same, almost the same, he's going to get a first pitch breaking ball, then I get a first pitch breaking ball, so, I've been kinda learning to hit behind another power hitting guy. I try to learn, like, OK, this is what he's gonna throw, and I try to feed off of that and prepare myself off of that and plus what I saw in the video."

More Dibble And Dukes After The JUMP...

Rob Dibble: You're very quiet. You remind me a lot of Mike Piazza how quiet you are, I mean when you're standing there trying to get your stance a little bit, have you always been that quiet in the batter's box, and, you're kinda almost like a statue, I'm very impressed, cause as a pitcher, you like seeing a guy doing a bunch of stuff cause it almost shows that he's nervous, you just look real confident up there?

Elijah Dukes: No, it kinda started back in the minor leagues, I moved a lot and I was real jumpy, so my coach kinda told me that I'm jumping to the ball, so I try to settle it in, and I try to get my little rhythm going and then I try to slow it up by getting in there and getting in my ready-to-swing base, so I can be ready for the breaking ball, fastball, so, that's what I try to do, I try to shorten up all the movement and stuff, and try to keep it simple and straight to the ball.

Rob Dibble: When you're facing the better pitchers in the major leagues, a Josh Johnson or Johan Santana do you look forward to those kind of at bats, you know, 3-4 at bats against some of the best pitchers in the game?

Elijah Dukes: Yeah, It's always fun going against the best, you know, that's all it is, you know, in order to be the best you gotta beat the best, so, any time you're facing the best pitchers, you're gonna always, you know guys are really gonna rise up, because it's just that guy. I've faced a lot of good pitchers, and I've hit a lot of good pitchers out, and I mean, it feels good, but at the same time, you know that that's the guys you're gonna be facing all the time...so, and nowadays, a lot of guys coming up now, pitchers are coming out of their little funk, and they're having better years and they're getting younger and better early now, so it's real competitive now, and I mean, it's fun to go out there and compete everyday.

Rob Dibble: Quick question, finally, Defense. You've got a rifle for an arm. It was just Roberto Clemente Day, he was a five-tool player, I consider you a five-tool player, is that something you continue to work on, your defense, and throwing people out? You get a lot of assists from the outfield.

Elijah Dukes: Yeah, I take pride in my defense. I always try to work hard to...I really don't like guys, when the ball comes my way, I want them to STOP. You know, that's what I'm working on, working on, just, when it comes my way to just stop. And when you go hard like that, I notice that, you can boot a ball and they'll still stop, because they got that understanding that, they're ain't too many times he's gonna boot the ball and make a bad throw, so that's the type of respect I try to get from the other coaches, so we can minimize the guys going from second to home on a routine ground ball or a hard hit ground ball, you want them to stop at third and that's what I try to work on..."

• Elijah Dukes' '09 Stats...

Elijah SSSSSUPER DUKESSSSS

#34 / Right Field / Washington Nationals

Height: 6-1

Weight: 240

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jun 26, 1984

'09 Stats - 91 G, 305 AB's, 79 H, 19 2B, 3 3B, 8 HR's, 52 RBI, 36 BB, 63 K's, .340 OBP, .420 SLG, .760 OPS, .969 Fld%, 11 A, 6 E's, 1 DP, OPS+ = 99, .303 BABIP, UZR = (-10.6), UZR/150 = (-15.0).

David Wright!

Sam Page — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 10:00:24 -0000

This season seems longer than the others. Remember when we all got riled up about how stupid Steve Phillips was? Simpler times. Do you remember this?

Omar Minaya, regarding the club's lack of an edge. I think he confused edge and leadership.

Judging by how the Mets performed in each of the past two Septembers, they do lack an edge, not completely, but they don't appear to be a team that handles adversity as well as it might.

-snip-

I have thought for two years that what Steve Phillips said Sunday is true -- that it is impossible, or least difficult, for David Wright to assert himself in a clubhouse of players who have more playing time than he does, players who were his "superiors" when he broke in. Even though Beltran is a quiet player with few conspicuous leadership qualities, and even though Delgado has stepped away from the leadership role, Wright defers to them.

(emphasis mine)

At the time, I thought this cliched analysis was funny and worth mocking. The Mets' general manager openly criticized his two best players for nothing. After Minaya recanted the statements under scrutiny, the previous general manager reiterated them on national TV. Then the beat writer on the Mets official website agreed with both of them. It was absurd, but David Wright knew the answer:

"The definition of edge is going out there and getting a few wins, and then all of a sudden you don't have to worry about anyone talking about edge anymore"

Then several key players left the team with injuries, and the Mets had real trouble getting "a few wins." If anything, one would think this painful season would instill the importance of good players. No, instead all success was attributed to a recently acquired bad rightfielder on a hot streak. Or it was, until Matt Cain's 94 MPH fastball hit David Wright square on the head. Then, Marty Noble was singing a different tune:

Wright runs when he's supposed to, speaks when spoken to, ducks fastballs but not issues, talks to the media after the most troubling losses, represents the Mets and other companies without misspeaking, stands for good and would have appeared on boxes of Wheaties had the Mets played in the 2006 World Series.

If that isn't leadership, it'll have to do till the real thing comes along.

Mets teammates now defer to him as Mets teammates once did to Tom Seaver, Keith Hernandez, Robin Ventura and Tom Glavine, as Wright did to Todd Zeile, Mike Piazza and Carlos Delgado. "Ask David" is an increasingly common suggestion in the clubhouse.

(emphasis mine)

When buying jerseys, I rarely go for the best player. I think it has to do with my need to find the most under-appreciated player on the team and compensate. I collected >500 Mike Piazza baseball cards growing up, but I never wore 31. I had a Robbie Alomar T-shirt jersey (I was 10 and we had just trade for him, no wisecracks). In 2007, I bought an Oliver Perez jersey. Granted, in between those two, I got a black Reyes-7, but never David Wright.

Another characteristic of my favorite players is that they have some exaggerated skill. I love Jack Cust, huge power but horrible contact ability. Same goes for Russel Branyan. Oliver Perez, at the time, was a good pitcher with great stuff and not-so-great control, like the Jack Cust of pitchers. I love Mark Ellis and Franklin Gutierrez for their defense, Jose Reyes for his speed.

David Wright has no exaggerated skill. He hits for average, but not like Ichiro or Pablo Sandoval. Before playing in the Grand Canyon, he hit for power, but not Piazza-power. He has good plate discipline, but still a pretty normal BB:K. His defense is good, but probably not gold-glove worthy. Wright does everything well, and the sum of the parts is an elite player, perhaps the most well-rounded in baseball. I take him for granted, but in the back of my mind I know he may be the best Met I ever see play.

Sadly it took him getting hit in the head with fastball, but the truth came out. David Wright had nothing to do with the Mets inability to reach the playoffs. Without David Wright, the Mets would have never sniffed a playoff birth, much less played deep into September for one.

Through the history of their franchise, the Mets have few homegrown superstars. They call Tom Seaver the franchise and David Wright is the first player to legitimately rival him since the Mets invented the Verducci Effect on Doc Gooden's arm.

When trying to write about the Mets as analyst, some things seem like a given. No one needs to prove how good David Wright is with numbers, but if we posted articles on this blog based on the merit of the player it would look more like: David Wright!, David Wright Applesauce, The Five Best Things David Wright Did Yesterday, David Wright v. Cubs Gamethread, Johan/Jose/Carlos too, the other guys, David Wright!.

C'mon, Rob! Win Shares? On Rob Neyer, Todd Helton, Jeff Kent, Jim Edmonds, Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, and the 2000 NL MVP

devil_fingers — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 14:53:14 -0000

Usual caveat: Rob Neyer is great. Really -- I'm among the many people out there who was first exposed to sabermetrics through his ESPN columns and "Rob and Rany on the Royals." He generally does a good job of keeping up with the latest stuff and getting it across in an easily-digested manner for his readers.

Moreover, MVP races are what they are -- a good idea for an award that often ruined by voters who seemingly don't have the faintest idea of what makes a baseball player valuable.

Still, I was a bit put off by Neyer's recent blog posting responding to a reader's claim that Todd Helton, not Jeff Kent, should have won the 2000 NL MVP (Helton placed seventh). Much of the debate, of course, is about the way Coors Field inflates hitters' numbers. The reader points out that Helton also had great numbers on the road. Let's skip to Neyer's conclusion:

Edmonds just edged Helton for fourth place. Maybe he shouldn't have. I certainly should not have dismissed Helton's road production, which was obviously considerable. But do you really want to argue -- with his road stats, anyway -- that Helton was better than Kent, Bonds, and Piazza? After including defense and baserunning?

Helton finished that season with 29 Win Shares. Kent finished with 37. The right man won the award.

Win Shares? Look, I'm not here to rip on Win Shares. Like Range Factor, VORP, skinny ties, and a geocentric cosmology, Win Shares had its time and place. But shouldn't a worldly guy like Rob Neyer (who, let's be honest, goes out of his way to flaunt his "progressiveness" every chance he gets) be a bit more circumspect when it comes to stuff like this? Who really should have won the 2000 NL MVP? Let's check in with Rally...

I'm not going to get into the ins-and-outs of Win Shares. Heck, I barely understand it -- and that's most of the problem. I think it's a great idea give the time in and purpose for which was conceived. If you want good criticisms of Win Shares, click here. But again, this isn't about Win Shares, it's about the 2000 NL MVP: How should we determine who "really" deserved it? Neyer's discussion (spurred by this reader's point that Helton wasn't just a Coors creation) focuses on the road stats of give players who finished high in that years MVP balloting, and so Neyer gives us this chart of road performances:

Player	Pos.	BA/OBP/SLG	Runs/RBI
Jeff Kent	2B	.333/.429/.624	61/65
Barry Bonds	LF	.291/.431/.633	65/48
Mike Piazza	C	.377/.459/.701	49/60
Jim Edmonds	CF	.295/.400/.556	66/51
Todd Helton	1B	.353/.441/.633	46/59

Again, seriously? We're going to go by by three-slashes (great for description, not so much for evaluation), runs scored and RBI? This is even worse than Win Shares. If only there was some "linear" fashion of "weighing" the relative offensive contributions of players that could include "adjustments" for "parks." I think we'd call it "location-sensitive relative massification" or something...

Granted, Neyer is writing for an audience with varyhing levels of knowledge of more recent (I hate the phrase "advanced metrics") stats and measures of player evaluation, so I understand this approach. But why bring up Win Shares? Outside of all the other objective criticisms, it's just so unnecessarily complicated.

So what would be a good way to decide which player was most valuable? What measure would account not just for offensive and defensive production, but also for position, and also the reality that runs at Coors are less valuable than they are at other parks... hmm... what could it be?

If you've been a reader here before, you know that the answer is Wins Above Replacement. It's been around in different forms for a while now. There are currenlty very good, freely accessible versions available at both FanGraphs (for 2002-2008, the seasons for which Ultimate Zone Rating is available using data from Baseball Info Solutions) and for all of baseball history at Rally's (AKA Sean "CHONE" Smith) incredible WAR database at Baseball Projection. You can read about the details behind the numbers here. Suffice it to say that Rally's database provides all the information we need: numbers for hitting (adjusting both for park and team context, so players don't get credit for more runs than their team actually scored), defense position, baserunning (not just steals, but also advancement), reaching on error, grounding into double plays, and playing time (replacement level adjusted for league and era). Sounds like exactly like the sort of "Uberstat" we're looking for. So what do Rally's numbers tell us about the five players mentioned in Neyer's chart duplicated above? The most important thing Rally's WAR tells us is that the list should be sorted differently.

Player	Hit	BsR	GIDP	ROE	Defense	Position	Replace	RAR	WAR
Todd Helton	61	1	0	2	18	-10	18	90	8.8
Barry Bonds	71	3	0	0	5	-6	16	89	8.7
Jeff Kent	65	-4	-2	1	1	2	18	81	7.9
Jim Edmonds	42	0	2	3	3	2	18	70	6.8
Mike Piazza	39	-2	-2	-1	-3	7	16	54	5.2

I didn't do a comprehensive search, I just took the five players Neyer listed. I think the chart speaks for itself.

The great thing about WAR is that, properly implemented, it takes all the "difficulty" and mystery out of comparing players in different run environments (parks/leagues), at different positions, of differing defensive skills, etc. It not only gets away from Runs and RBI (while still using replacement level as a playing time guide to avoid the limitations of pure rate stats), but also uses linear weights to evaluate offense in an objective way that the three slash simply can't do on its own (i.e., trying to figure out how to weight each of the components [1.75*OBP+SLG is a good start, by the way]).

Jeff Kent was probably less liked than Barry Bonds, but was still an outstanding player (and borderline Hall-of-Famer, but that's another discussion) who helped his teams a great deal. But he wasn't even the best player on his team that season, despite actually being okay on defense. WAR isn't terribly precise, so one could make a case for either Bonds or Helton, it seems to me. But getting back to context -- these guys are all in the same league in the same year, so those considerations are irrelevant. It all comes down to a guy as smart as Rob Neyer seemingly "overadjusting" for Coors Field so much that he focuses on "road stats" for some reason. Why not simply reference park-adjusted stats?

Neyer writes:

But do you really want to argue -- with his road stats, anyway -- that Helton was better than Kent, Bonds, and Piazza? After including defense and baserunning?

Defense: Let's see, even though he played the easiest/least valuable position of the five, after you account for defense+position, the only player close is Edmonds, whom Rob already admits wasn't as good. 18 runs is 18 runs even at first base. Baserunning: Bonds was the better baserunner, but Helton wasn't bad, and clearly better than Kent and Piazza.

This is clearly a two-horse race between Helton and Bonds. One could make either argument. But to imply that it's sort of crazy to think Helton should be in the race is way off, especially in comparison to Piazza and Kent (the actual winner, whom Neyer tells us is the "right man.")

My main point isn't about the 2000 MVP Race, which is undoubtedly forgotten by most of us other than Kent, Bonds (who wasn't very happy about the result), Helton, and Neyer's correspondant. The main issue is that Neyer, who continues to be an excellent writer and analyst, obfuscates the issue with. It isn't just the "road stats" red herring, which is at least understandable on the level of "this is something my readers might get." But if you're going to bring up a total value "Uberstat" like Win Shares, why not go with one that's simpler, more intuitive, and more publicly available like WAR? C'mon, Rob!

It's not a big deal, but hey, this is the blogosphere, where Little Things are a Big Deal.

NB: For another approach to MVP/Hall of Fame issues, see vivaelpujols' posts on Pennant and Playoff Probability Added.

Historical WAR Review: Catchers

JinAZ — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 20:00:10 -0000

More photos » by Tom Pennington - AP

Pudge Rodriguez has accumulated the most WAR of any active catcher. But where does he rank all-time? (AP Photo/Tom Pennington)

Browse more photos »

Preamble

Rally just completed the Herculean task of estimating WAR season totals for every player in major league baseball, 1871 onward. I don't think it can be understated what an accomplishment this is--yes, we've had other measures on these same players before--win shares, WSAB, WARP, etc. But I think these are clearly the best measures of career value we have to date, and I was happy to purchase the database from him. In an effort to explore these data, and to learn some baseball history, I'm embarking on a position-by-position review of career WAR totals.

There are roughly 14 decades of players in this database, so we'll do a top-14 list at each position. We'll start with catchers! Keep in mind that these are accumulated career value rankings, not necessarily a list of "the best." Or even Hall of Fame worthiness...that said, I think they're a great place to start. :)

Top 14 Catchers, by WAR

14. Wally Schang of the Athletics, Red Sox, Yankees, Browns, and Tigers.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1913	19	6263	0.366	169	-2	-21	58	43.8	4.9

Cited on his Wikipedia page as the greatest offensive catcher of the World War I era, Schang played in six World Series teams, three of which were Champions (1913 Athletics, 1918 Red Sox, and 1923 Yankees). Schang was not a major power hitter, but he hit for fine average and had an excellent eye, walking more than he struck out and finishing his career with a 0.393 OBP. It's worth noting, as with other pre-retrosheet catchers, it's hard to make much of his defensive numbers, as we don't even have information here on caught stealing percentages. Schang has a good defensive reputation, so it's possible his true career WAR totals could even be higher.

...the rest of the list below the jump!

13. Gene Tenace of the Athletics, Padres, Cardinals, and Pirates.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1969	15	5465	0.393	275	-1	-9	16	48.7	6.2

Tenace had the misfortune to play at the same time as two other catchers named Fisk and Bench, but nonetheless had an outstanding, although comparatively short career: his WAR/700 PA rate (WAR/yr) is the second highest of anyone in our top-14 list, and his wOBA is the highest of anyone in the top-100 list of catchers. While no slouch on defense (note, though, that he did spend ~40% of his career at first base), he did most of his damage with his stick. Tenace had excellent power for a catcher, topping 20 home runs five times and posting a career 0.188 ISO. At the same time, he did an outstanding job of getting on base, leading the league in walks twice (1974 and 1977) and posting a career 0.388 OBP despite a 0.241 career AVG. He played on four world series teams, all of which walked away with a ring (three times with the legendary Oakland teams of the early 70's--he was the world series MVP in 1972--and in 1982 with the Cardinals). Despite all of his accomplishments, he only was selected for one all star team, and only twice received votes for the league MVP.

12. Gabby Hartnett of the Cubs (and Giants). Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1922	20	7170	0.369	211	1	12	58	50.3	4.9

Charles Leo Hartnett played for a long time, and as a result some of his rate stats aren't as impressive as others on this list. But this guy had some monster seasons. He appeared in the first six all-star games, won the MVP award in 1935 (and received votes 9 other years), and appeared in four world series (he was a Cub, of course, and so they lost all of them). He hit for average, he walked, and he hit for significant power, topping out with 37 home runs in 1930. He hit for 2.4 or more wins above average in four separate seasons, and his wiki page cites him as the greatest NL catcher in the first half of the 20th century. He is also our first hall of fame catcher in our top-14 list.

11. Ted Simmons of the of the Cardinals, Brewers, and Braves.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1968	21	9574	0.355	163	-2	-33	70	50.4	3.7

Simmons played a long time, and played a lot during those seasons, and as a result his WAR/yr totals are the lowest in our top-14; his 9574 plate appearances ranks 2nd all time behind Carton Fisk. There's value in all of that playing time, and WAR recognizes that, ranking him at #11. Simmons was an 8-time all star, received votes for the MVP award seven times, and appeared in the Brewers' World Series loss vs. the Cardinals. His failure to be elected into the Hall of Fame has long been debated. His case is more about counting stats than rate stats given his durability, but if Hartnett is in, Simmons probably has a case as well.

10. Mickey Cochrane of the Athletics and Tigers. Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1925	13	6055	0.390	288	0	-2	46	51.2	5.9

Cochrane's career ended early at age 34 when a pitch by Bump Hadley hit him in the head, resulting in a 7-day hospitalization and a mandated end to his playing career. But he'd clearly done enough to that point to warrant his Hall of Fame credentials. Two-time MVP (received votes 6 other seasons), two-time all-star (all-star games only began in 1933), five world series teams (three wins: 2 with the Athletics, 1 with the Tigers), and a ridonculous 0.419 career OBP. He was also player-manager during his years with the Tigers, which began in 1934.

9. Buck Ewing of the Trojans, Gothams, Giants, Spiders, and Reds. Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1880	18	5764	0.39	274	9	74	35	51.8	6.3

Here's what I love about Rally's expanded WAR: dead ball era players. With Cap Anson, Ewing was voted one of the two best position players of the 19th century, and he joined Anson as the first from their era to be elected into the Hall of Fame. He was, by all reports I've seen, a superb defensive player, with an excellent throwing arm (per his Wiki page) and, by Rally's measures, better than average (vs. his contemporaries) ability to prevent errors and passed balls despite not using a glove. He hit for average and power. Ewing led the league in home runs (10 in 1883 in 88 games--the first player to hit that mark) and triples one time each, and posted six full seasons with a 140+ OPS+. His Giants teams won back-to-back world series in 1888-1889. Ewing's WAR/700 PA totals are the highest of any catcher in our top-14 list, and one could argue that he was held back primarily by the small number of games played over the course of his career (of course, one could also argue we should adjust for quality of competition, but we're just going vs. league average here).

8. Bill Dickey of the Yankees. Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1928	17	7009	0.379	268	2	20	53	54.4	5.4

Dickey played on the same Yankees teams that included Ruth, Gehrig, and DiMaggio. He caught in eight world series between 1932-1943, and the Yankees won seven of them. He was an 11-time All Star, received consideration for the MVP nine times (placing 2nd in 1938 to Boston's Jimmie Foxx), and was an extremely well-round player. His defensive reputation was very strong, which is backed by Rally's data (which only includes error and passed ball rates in this era). And as a hitter, he showed very good power (20+ home runs 1936-1939), high average, and excellent selectivity at the plate, walking at 2.3 times the rate he struck out. Following his playing career, he became the defensive instructor for another catcher on our list: Yogi Berra.

7. Joe Torre of the Braves and Cardinals.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1960	18	8738	0.368	250	-2	-29	22	55.6	4.5

If you're like me, you've heard so much hype about Joe Torre's managerial career that you may not know much about his playing career. In fact, maybe it's not just me--if you blink while reading his wiki page, you'll miss that he ever did anything but manage. But Torre had a fantastic career, one that was arguably worthy of a Hall of Fame induction (though he never received more than 22% of the BBWAA vote). Torre was sort of like Ted Simmons in that his argument is more based on counting stats than rate stats--aside from Simmons, no one to this point on our list had as many career PA's as Torre. He did have some truly outstanding seasons, however. He hit for power (36 home runs in 1966) and average, and took his share of walks He was a 9-time All Star, the 1971 NL MVP (received votes in 5 other seasons), and won a gold glove award in 1965. Rally's data, which does include stolen base information for his career, indicates that if there was one weakness in his game, it was defense. He split time between catcher, first, and third during his career, and he rates out as slightly below average over his career.

6. Mike Piazza of the Dodgers, Marlins, Mets, Padres, and Athletics.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1992	16	7700	0.388	354	-6	-70	83	59.1	5.4

Piazza is often cited as the best-hitting catcher in baseball history. There's definitely something to that--at least among catchers with 7000+ PA's in their careers, Piazza has the highest wOBA, even after correcting for the fact that he played in an offensive era. Some others on our top-14 list have a (slightly) higher wOBA, but none of them played as much as Piazza. Looking back at his raw offensive numbers, it's impossible to not be impressed. Ten consecutive seasons with an 0.900+ OPS (four times over 1.000), twice leading the league in OPS+, 9 seasons with more than 30 homers...the list goes on and on. He was a 12-time all-star, appeared in 5 post-seasons (one world series loss), won the Rookie of the Year in '93, and received votes for the MVP in 9 consecutive seasons (finished second twice). The knock on Piazza, of course, was his defense, which is the worst among our top-14 catchers (among the top-50 catchers, only Mickey Tettleton had a worse per-season rate). But I'll say two things in his defense. One, unlike a lot of the guys on this list, Piazza played almost exclusively behind the plate (the experiment to switch him to first base while with the Mets failed miserably). Second, despite his -70 fielding rating, his position adjustment is still +83 runs--indicating that, overall, he still rates as an average to above-average fielder compared to an average position player. Should be a lock for the Hall of Fame. Right?

5. Yogi Berra of the Yankees (and Mets). Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1946	19	8311	0.374	284	2	27	62	61.9	5.2

As a devout Yankees hater, I think I'm fairly well-qualified to say this: I don't think there's been a more colorful character in the history of baseball than Lawrence Peter Berra. But what makes him that much more awesome is that beyond his brilliant AFLAC commercials, he was a genuinely phenomenal player. Look at the playing time, look at the production, and keep in mind that his fielding rating shown here largely ignores his performance on throwing out baserunners. Berra was a 3-time MVP (the most of any catcher, and he received votes in every season in which he played 100 or more games), a 15-time all-star, and a man who could hit for average, power, and take a walk. Berra's undoubtedly overrated, as most Yankees legends are. But his combination of durability and production, not to mention a colorful quote or two, made for one of the best catchers in history.

4. Gary Carter of the Expos, Mets, Giants, and Dodgers. Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1974	19	8887	0.354	145	9	112	118	66.3	5.2

I'm not sure why, but somehow I think I've always felt that Gary Carter was overrated. I think it was at least partly that, like many sabr-oriented fans, I focused mostly on the offense and ignored the defense. Carter was no slouch as a hitter, as his 0.354 career wOBA (era- and park-adjusted) indicates. He hit for fine power, and walked enough to keep his OBP respectable, at least. But he wasn't aweesome because of his bat. What vaults Carter to 4th on our list is his defense, which by Rally's measures was the fourth-highest career total of any catcher in the top-100 catchers by WAR (behind I-Rod, Charlie Bennett, and Jim Sundberg). And it's not just Rally' data. In Tom Tango's WOWY study, which is a more careful assessment of catcher defense, Carter rated 3rd among all retrosheet catchers on a per-season basis behind Sundberg and Bruce Benedict. Defense matters. Which brings us to the #3-ranked catcher...

3. Ivan Rodriguez of the Rangers, Marlins, Tigers, Yankees, and now-Astros.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1991	18	9169	0.345	83	12	151	128	66.5	5.1

The only active player on our list, I-Rod was also the biggest surprise to me as I started on this project. He is rated by Rally's data as the best defensive catcher in the history of baseball, based on accumulated career runs above average behind the plate (on a per-season basis, he's tied for 4th among the top-100 catchers). I-Rod has occasionally received criticism for the more cerebral aspects of catching, such as handling a pitching staff and calling a game, but I think you can make a strong argument that he had one of the top two or three best throwing arms of any catcher ever. He absolutely annihilated the running game, posting caught-stealing percentages above 50% in eight separate seasons, and currently sporting a career mark of 46% (he's declined into the 30% range over the past three seasons). As a testament to this excellence, I-Rod holds 13 gold glove awards. On top of his defensive excellence, Rodriguez has played a ton (3rd in PA's by catchers all-time), and put up pretty decent offensive numbers for most of his career. He won an MVP award in 1999 with his 30/25 season, posted 9-consecutive seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or better, was an All-Star 14 times, and played on 5 postseason teams, including Florida's 2003 World Champion team. And yet, I'm honestly not sure if he's a lock for the Hall of Fame, at least through the eyes of the voters. What do you folks think?

2. Carton Fisk of the Red Sox and White Sox. Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1969	24	9748	0.357	187	2	27	120	67.3	4.8

The "Pudge" before "Pudge" Rodriguez, Fisk got to this point on the list in two primary ways: playing forever, and putting up very good numbers over that time. 24 seasons is second only to Deacon McGuire among the top-100 catchers, and his 9748 PA's is second to none. Fisk played 97% of his games behind the dish, playing from 1969 to 1993(!). A career that long includes a lot of highlights: Rookie of the Year, 11-time All Star, a Gold Glove, 7 times receiving votes for the MVP (never finished above third), and a pair of postseason appearances. He was often very good, occasionally outstanding (two seasons with 3+ WAA), and ultimately I think his Hall of Fame bid came down to two things: his prodigious counting stats, and the memory of him waving a home run fair during the Red Sox' failed bid to win a World Series in 1975. There was another catcher in that world series, though, and he's our #1 ranked catcher of all time...

1. Johnny Bench of the Reds. Hall of Fame.

Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Offense	Fld/yr	Fld	PosAdj	WAR	WAR/yr
1967	17	8568	0.369	253	6	71	98	71.3	5.8

As a Reds fan I'm biased, but I think if you were to ask a large number of fans the name of the best catcher ever, Johnny Bench's name would be at the top of the poll. It's not a slam dunk, but Bench comes out four wins above Fisk--and Bench had 1200 fewer PA's and a much higher peak. Bench was a brilliant defender, but probably not the best defensive catcher of all time. And he was a superb hitter, but is probably not the best hitting catcher of all time. What sets him apart is that he was extremely good at both offense and defense: with game-changing defense and prodigious power, he redefined his position. No other catcher has ever hit 45 home runs in a season, and only one other (Mike Piazza) has topped the 40-mark twice. He was Rookie of the Year, a two-time MVP (second only to Berra), a 14-time All Star (13 consecutive), and the winner of 10 consecutive gold gloves. He was the best of the best, and I'm proud that he played for my team...it's nice to be proud of something these days.

Table legend

wOBA: The Book's statistic, park adjusted by Rally, and standardized to roughly modern baseball (0.335 league average OBP). It should be roughly comparable across all eras.

Offense: "Total" from Rally's data, this is career runs above average on offense (including hitting and baserunning)

Fld/yr: Fielding per full modern season (estimated as 700 PA)

Fld: Rally's fielding estimates, either TotalZone (TZ; Retrosheet era only) or JustAnotherAdjustedRangeFactor (JAARF), including double plays, catcher fielding, etc. Catcher fielding before 1955 does not include performance vs. the running game.

PosAdj: Rally's position adjustments, which are era specific and based on fielding disparities.

WAR: Career WAR totals. Note, in a few cases, I'm finding very slight differences (+-0.1 WAR or so, usually) between these data and Rally's top 500 list. I can only assume it's a rounding issue.

WAR/yr: WAR per full modern season (estimated as 700 PA).

The Top-25 list

Rank	Pos	Name	Debut	Seasons	PA	wOBA	Fld/yr	WAR	WAR/yr
1	C	Bench, Johnny	1967	17	8568	0.369	6	71.3	5.8
2	C	Fisk, Carlton	1969	24	9748	0.357	2	67.3	4.8
3	C	Rodriguez, Ivan	1991	18	9169	0.345	12	66.5	5.1
4	C	Carter, Gary	1974	19	8887	0.354	9	66.3	5.2
5	C	Berra, Yogi	1946	19	8311	0.374	2	61.9	5.2
6	C	Piazza, Mike	1992	16	7700	0.388	-6	59.1	5.4
7	C	Torre, Joe	1960	18	8738	0.368	-2	55.6	4.5
8	C	Dickey, Bill	1928	17	7009	0.379	2	54.4	5.4
9	C	Ewing, Buck	1880	18	5764	0.39	9	51.8	6.3
10	C	Cochrane, Mickey	1925	13	6055	0.39	0	51.2	5.9
11	C	Simmons, Ted	1968	21	9574	0.355	-2	50.4	3.7
12	C	Hartnett, Gabby	1922	20	7170	0.369	1	50.3	4.9
13	C	Tenace, Gene	1969	15	5465	0.393	-1	48.7	6.2
14	C	Schang, Wally	1913	19	6263	0.366	-2	43.8	4.9
15	C	Munson, Thurman	1969	11	5824	0.36	4	43.4	5.2
16	C	Freehan, Bill	1961	15	6813	0.35	3	43.3	4.4
17	C	Posada, Jorge	1995	14	5835	0.365	-2	41.7	5
18	C	Bresnahan, Roger	1897	17	5262	0.377	-2	41.6	5.5
19	C	Porter, Darrell	1971	17	6489	0.353	1	40.6	4.4
20	C	Lombardi, Ernie	1931	17	6331	0.362	-2	39.0	4.3
21	C	Bennett, Charlie	1878	15	4310	0.346	23	38.0	6.2
22	C	Kendall, Jason	1996	13	7610	0.344	-1	37.0	3.4
23	C	Campanella, Roy	1948	10	4768	0.366	2	36.2	5.3
24	C	Parrish, Lance	1977	19	7716	0.331	4	35.7	3.2
25	C	Sundberg, Jim	1974	16	6742	0.318	12	35.1	3.6

As a postscript, I just wanted to close by saying that it sure would be nice to be able to include Josh Gibson in this list. Gibson's playing days were over by age 31, but his short, brilliant career might have been enough to get him on the top-14 list had he played in MLB. Unfortunately, the Negro leagues remain one of the great frontiers of historical sabermetrics, and it's not possible to include him at this time.

Links to the rest of the series

C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF

Dodger First Half Review: Simply The Best

Eric Stephen — Tue, 14 Jul 2009 14:00:12 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Matt Kemp and the Dodgers have had plenty of reason to celebrate in the first half.

Browse more photos »

No matter what happens between now and the end of the season, the 2009 Dodgers will be one of the most memorable clubs in franchise history. Even with all the ups and downs of the de facto first half, the Dodgers head into the All-Star break with the best record in baseball.

The Dodgers began play as the Brooklyn Atlantics in the 1884 American Association. This is the 126th season of the franchise. Through 88 games, the 2009 club is tied for the 11th-best record at 56-32, which also stands as the fourth-best 88-game start since moving to Los Angeles. Here are the top records through 88 games in franchise history, along with the final winning percentage of each club:

Year	W-L	Pct	Final %
1955	61-27	.693	.641
1952	61-27	.693	.627
1942	61-27	.693	.675
1899	60-28	.682	.682
1974	60-28	.682	.630
1892	59-29	.670	.617
1899	58-30	.659	.679
1941	57-31	.648	.649
1977	57-31	.648	.605
1962	57-31	.648	.618
1953	56-32	.636	.682
1951	56-32	.636	.618
2009	56-32	.636	???

The lowest winning percentage with this kind of start in Dodger history is .605, which equates to 98 wins for the season.

Phil, Brendan, and I voted on a couple of Dodger awards for the first half of the season. The first award is the Mike Piazza Award, given to the club MVP, named after the rightful winner of the 1996 & 1997 National League MVP awards. We each picked and ranked five candidates, with points awarded on a 5-4-3-2-1 basis. The second is the Sandy Koufax Award, named for the greatest pitcher in franchise history (so far). We each picked three for this award, and points were given on a 5-3-1 basis.

Mike Piazza Award: Matt Kemp has been the man for the Dodgers in the first half, perhaps one of the most productive lower-third-of-the-batting-order hitters ever (57 of his 85 starts have come in the 7th spot or lower). The Bison has combined stellar hitting -- leading non-suspended Dodger regulars in Equivalent Average (.313), wOBA (.386), slugging percentage (.495) and OPS (.879) -- with amazing defense. Kemp is second among major league centerfielders in Ultimate Zone Rating, a cool 10.2 runs above average. Kemp has had a well-rounded first half, having scored from second base on a bunt, ending a game with a Willie Mays catch, and already tying the Los Angeles club record for grand slams in a season with three (Kal Daniels 1990, Mike Piazza 1998, and Adrian Beltre 2004). Here's how the voting broke out:

Player	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Total
Kemp	2	1	--	--	--	14
Billingsley	1	1	1	--	--	12
Blake	--	1	1	1	--	9
Broxton	--	--	1	1	1	6
Hudson	--	--	--	1	1	3
Pierre	--	--	--	--	1	1

Sandy Koufax Award: This one was a slam dunk, as Chad Billingsley has taken the reins as staff ace and put together an All-Star first half. He has struggled of late, having been stuck on nine wins for five straight starts. However, Billingsley still leads the club in innings (125.1), wins (9), FIP (3.51), Pitching Runs Created (57), and strikeouts (119). Jonathan Broxton, who was lights out before his recent toe injury, finished in second place. However, if Clayton Kershaw keeps up his recent great pitching, this award will be up for grabs as the season comes to a close. Here's the voting:

Pitcher	1st	2nd	3rd	Total
Billingsley	3	--	--	15
Broxton	--	3	--	9
Kershaw	--	--	1	1
Wolf	--	--	1	1
Troncoso	--	--	1	1

First Half By The Numbers:
56-32 record (.636, best in MLB)
443 runs scored (5.03 per game, 7th in MLB)
338 runs allowed (3.84 per game, 2nd in MLB)
.632 pythagorean winning percentage, 1st in MLB
.337 wOBA (9th in MLB)
3.88 FIP (4th in MLB)
.718 Defensive Efficiency (1st in MLB)

Don't Get Swept Away: The Dodgers have yet to have a losing streak of three games. In fact, the club has played 29 different series so far, and has only lost six of them. The club is 8-3-3 in 14 home series, and 10-3-2 in 15 road series.

Start Me Up: The Dodgers are second in MLB with 70 first inning runs (Philadelphia and their 846 All-Stars have scored 73 first inning runs).

Pleading The Fifth: This is the answer you might get from Joe Torre if asked why Matt Kemp bats so low in the order. Dodger 5th-place hitters are 29th in baseball in OPS, hitting .235/.333/.323, with three home runs and 40 RBI. However, the Dodger 8th-place hitters lead MLB in OPS, hitting .336/.394/.525, with 14 homers and 50 RBI. Thanks to the amazing Baseball-Reference.com, we can see the breakdown of different parts of the Dodger batting order (pitchers not included):

Batting Order	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1-2 spots	.285	.355	.400	.755
3-6 spots	.269	.356	.401	.757
7-9 spots	.305	.380	.494	.874

The Giants (.739 OPS from 3-6, .752 from 7-9) and Pirates (.733, .740) are the only other clubs in baseball with a more productive bottom of the lineup than middle.

Pitching In: The Dodgers have used 19 pitchers this season, and 17 of them have at least one win. The club record for pitchers with at least one win is 18, set last season.

Back End of the Rotation: Coming into the season, the Dodgers top four starting pitchers were Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wolf, and Clayton Kershaw. Those four have done fine, averaging 6.04 innings per start while putting up a 3.46 ERA. The Dodgers are 40-25 in games started by these four pitchers. Meanwhile, the other four pitchers to start -- Eric Stults, Eric Milton, Jeff Weaver, and James McDonald -- haven't been as effective, averaging only 4.58 innings per start while putting up a 4.78 ERA. However, the club is an amazing 16-7 in starts made by this back end of the starting staff.

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I don't know how you can look at this team and see anything but an unqualified success. When Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games, things looked bleak for the Dodgers, and they were expected to fall back to the pack somewhat. However, the Dodgers actually widened their lead in the division, which solidified this club as a legitimate World Series contender. With a seven-game lead over the Giants, the Dodgers have a nice cushion with which to play in the second half. Baseball Prospectus currently has the Dodgers' playoff odds at 99.25%.

No matter the challenge, this team has responded. When the offense sputtered (3.6 runs per game in June), the pitching picked up the slack. When the pitching struggled, the offense had their back. The Dodgers lost their best hitter for 50 games, they lost their opening day starter for two months, and their two expected main setup men coming into the season have been injured, ineffective, or both. However, here they are with the very best record in baseball. This is a very good team, with a tough lineup and pitching staff from top to bottom, and one that will be reckoned with, even as presently constructed, in October.

First Half Stats

Player	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SB/CS	BA/OBP/SLG	OPS	wOBA	EqA
Manny	121	30	43	11	0	9	29	31	0/0	.355/.487/.669	1.156	.476	.394
Kemp	325	48	104	12	6	11	50	34	19/4	.320/.384/.495	.874	.386	.313
Blake	288	47	82	18	2	12	55	36	2/1	.285/.364/.486	.850	.362	.300
Pierre	259	39	85	15	4	0	25	19	23/8	.328/.387/.417	.804	.361	.293
Hudson	343	53	97	24	2	7	48	38	6/0	.283/.353/.426	.779	.346	.282
Ethier	324	49	81	17	1	18	56	39	4/3	.250/.338/.475	.813	.344	.283
Loney	331	43	93	17	1	7	54	37	6/1	.281/.350/.402	.752	.330	.273
Martin	283	37	73	10	0	2	27	48	8/4	.258/.373/.314	.688	.317	.259
Furcal	317	46	81	16	1	4	21	36	5/4	.256/.331/.350	.682	.305	.245
Ausmus	56	7	16	2	0	1	5	4	1/0	.286/.355/.375	.730	.334	.268
Loretta	106	14	26	5	0	0	16	15	0/0	.245/.344/.292	.637	.295	.235
Castro	71	14	25	3	0	1	9	6	0/0	.352/.397/.437	.834	.365	.302
DeWitt	23	2	4	0	0	1	1	2	0/0	.174/.240/.304	.544	.245	.181
Hoffmann	22	2	4	2	0	1	7	0	0/0	.182/.167/.409	.576	.226	.201
Paul	14	3	3	1	0	1	1	2	0/1	.214/.313/.500	.813	.317	.255
Jones	13	1	4	1	0	0	0	0	0/0	.308/.400/.385	.785	.361	.289
Mientkiewicz	5	0	2	1	0	0	2	0	0/0	.400/.400/.600	1.000	.430	.342
Ellis	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0/0	.000/.000/.000	.000	.000	-.237
Pitchers	158	8	20	4	0	1	13	9	0/0	.127/.181/.171	.352	---	---
Totals	3063	443	843	159	17	76	419	356	74/26	.275/.354/.413	.766	.337	.277

Pitcher	G	W-L	Sv	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	FIP	x-FIP
Billingsley	19	9-4	--	125.1	99	51	47	55	119	3.38	1.229	3.51	3.98
Wolf	19	4-3	--	114.2	101	47	44	33	85	3.45	1.169	4.25	4.39
Kershaw	18	7-5	--	99.2	68	35	35	59	99	3.16	1.274	3.52	4.28
Kuroda	10	3-5	--	54.0	50	30	28	12	38	4.67	1.148	3.60	3.88
Stults	9	4-2	--	45.0	46	24	24	25	30	4.80	1.578	4.12	5.64
Milton	5	2-1	--	23.2	30	12	10	6	20	3.80	1.521	3.56	4.60
Broxton	38	6-0	20	40.2	21	14	14	17	65	3.10	0.934	1.59	1.93
Troncoso	41	3-0	5	56.2	51	15	11	21	34	1.75	1.271	3.30	3.93
Belisario	43	1-3	0	48.1	37	15	13	20	46	2.42	1.179	3.01	3.44
Weaver	15	5-3	--	44.0	49	19	17	20	34	3.48	1.568	3.93	4.35
Mota	38	3-2	--	41.0	31	16	16	16	23	3.51	1.195	3.85	4.51
Leach	33	2-0	--	19.0	11	9	9	9	17	4.26	1.053	3.82	3.86
McDonald	17	2-1	--	28.2	24	15	15	19	19	4.71	1.500	5.37	5.73
Wade	27	2-3	--	27.2	28	17	17	10	18	5.53	1.373	4.12	4.89
Ohman	21	1-0	1	12.1	12	8	8	8	7	5.84	1.622	7.92	5.65
Elbert	4	1-0	--	9.0	10	5	5	2	9	5.00	1.333	6.14	3.53
Kuo	7	1-0	--	5.1	5	4	4	4	4	6.75	1.688	7.45	6.33
Schlichting	2	0-0	--	2.2	1	2	1	5	2	3.38	2.250	12.14	9.38
Vargas	2	0-0	--	2.0	1	0	0	1	0	0.00	1.000	4.64	6.05
Totals	88	56-32	26	799.2	677	338	318	3.85	7.53	3.58	1.274	3.88	---