SB Nation - Russell Branyan

Tuesday Night Odds & Ends

Jeff — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 09:02:34 -0000

A few things I missed over the afternoon...

Russell Branyan has rejected a one-year offer from the Mariners, a one-year offer that, via Larry Stone, included a 2011 option. Branyan says that, while he'd love to stay in Seattle, he's holding out for a multiyear deal that gives him some semblance of stability, a goal that makes a lot of sense when you consider that he and his wife just had another kid. He's tired of moving around.

I feel for him. Branyan's never deserved to be the nomad sort, and after a career year, this is as good a time as any for him to sell himself as more than a one-year solution. Unfortunately, though, Branyan's a guy who's never drawn a big offer, settling with the Mariners last winter for $1.4m/1yr, and while you'd think the 31 homers would bump up his value, those were largely offset by his back trouble, which threatens to linger for the rest of his days. If Branyan had stayed healthy all season, he'd probably be looking at at least, I dunno, $12m/2yr. But he missed a quarter of the team's games with his injury and at 34, with that back, 2+ years just isn't very likely.

I'd expect Branyan to re-sign with the Mariners. I wouldn't, however, expect him to return on a guaranteed multiyear deal. 2010 with a 2011 option that vests with a certain number of plate appearances is probably the best he'll be able to do.

From the same Pravda article, Jack Wilson has rejected the Mariners' initial multiyear offer. Anybody that listened to Jack and Tony talk after the Wilson acquisition knows that the organization absolutely loves him and would be delighted to have him stick around for another few years, but apparently it's going to take a little more than was offered. Which, hey, this is how negotiations work. The guy who goes in and proposes what he considers the most fair deal first is the guy who never gets a fair deal. I'd expect this one to end up somewhere around where Branyan would've wound up were it not for the bad back.

Shannon Drayer has a post up detailing a conversation she had with Alan Nero, Felix's agent. We've all been freaking out about the lack of communication between parties, but reading Nero's quotes is reassuring - he continues to emphasize that there's no hurry, and that there isn't any writing on the wall for the rest of us to interpret. The organization has assured Nero that it will put something together, and though Felix may prefer a little more of a hands-on approach, Felix has put his trust in his agent and has admitted as much, meaning the lack of dialogue so far may not actually hurt us at all.

These quotes from Nero and Zduriencik over the past few days have breathed new life into my optimism that something's going to get done. There's obviously a little more urgency here than Nero is going to let on, but with Felix's side being willing and Z sounding determined, this should be doable. Six years, and figure out the money. It really is as simple as that.

Tuesday Afternoon Astros Link-Fest

davoag — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 19:00:55 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

How is the weather in Arizona, Jason?

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Let's look at some baseball-related links while wondering why the heck Joe Girardi is still pitching to Chase Utley...

Here's a nice roundup done by Brian McTaggart on the Astro Winter League contingent. Of note, Chia-jen Lo has headed back to Taiwan for a while and the Astros can't hit or pitch. I kid, of course, though one is more troubling than the other. I saw a tweet from Jonathan Mayo that the AFL league ERA was something like 5.87. That's with Stephen Strasburg, even. So, I'm not as worried about Danny Meszaros, especially when he has struck out eight in 5 2/3 innings. But, Jason Castro, Jose Vallejo and Jon Gaston all struggling is worrying. Castro has played a ton in the past season, though, and Vallejo isn't expected to do much next season. This leaves Gaston. He's got more potential than anyone gave him credit for, but with the extended slumps, the strikeouts and the fact he's probably going to settle in left field, how is he not a younger Luke Scott? Not that that's a bad thing, but it's an interesting comparison. I may have to look into a little more deeply.

Speaking of prospects, here's a good interview by The Unofficial Scorer with Jiovanni Mier. I have to admit, I've been intrigued with Mier all summer. He's played well, has shown good range at short and has got some pop in his bat. Like Castro, he profiles as more of a doubles hitters than a home-run threat, but as long as he can get on base at a .360-.380 clip in the majors, I'm fine with fewer homers.

Sparked by the Astros flirtation with Phil Garner, this article from THT talks about all the rehirings throughout history. Under Peculiar Owners, Jaffe lists just Charlie Finley and George Steinbrenner, but I'm thinking a certain grocery magnate from Temple could join that list...

File this under, 'Things I would have done if I had lived in 1911.'

Finally a bit of speculation on the merits of Russell Branyan. He's been mentioned a few times as a possible candidate for that black hole at third base the Astros currently have. Would he tingle anyone's toes if he signed? According to FanGraphs, Branyan was worth 12.5 million in 2009, which is more than he was worth in the previous three seasons combined. It might be a bad idea, then, to give him a multi-year deal. Instead, how about targeting a guy like Joe Crede, who may be released by the Twins. Crede earned 2.5 million in 2009 but was worth 8.3 million. His hitting has never rebounded to 2006 levels, but his wOBA was back to .330 as recently as 2008 with the White Sox. He's great with the glove, so maybe a move to the National League will help his hitting.

Back tomorrow with a look at the Astros fielding...

Russell Branyan's Missing Games

Matthew — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 23:29:10 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Mariners' Ichiro Suzuki, left, demonstrates a proper pimp slapping technique to Russell Branyan.

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On August 29th, Russell Branyan went on the disabled list with a herniated disk in his back. That may be the last we hear of him in connection with the Mariners. I hope not, but he is now a free agent so the possibility is a strong one. I was sad that Russell was unable to make it back into the lineup before the close of the regular season and not just because I was tired of watching Jose Lopez and Jack Hannahan be wasted at first base. I hoped that Branyan would get to receive a tribute from the crowd for his surprisingly great season, a season which was instrumental in keeping the Mariners afloat in the AL West.

But how might that season have turned out if not for the back injury?

Up to that point, Branyan had played in 116 of 129 possible games, accumulating 505 plate appearances. If we hold him up that pace for the remainder of the 2009 season, he would have seen action in an additional 30 games and made another 129 trips to the plate. Assuming that his rate stats up to that point held throughout those 129 appearances, his final line (.251/.347/.520) obviously stays the same, but his counting stats obviously increase.

By how much? Well his RBIs top out at 95, leaving him one behind Jose Lopez and still depriving the Mariners of even one cresting the 100 plateau. We don't really care about RBIs though, I just wondered if it would have gotten him to 100. Home runs on the other hand are always fun, but again Branyan would fall just short of nice round figure, getting to 39 home runs. That would have been the first time any Mariner had hit that many since 2005 Richie Sexson also belted 39. Can you name the last Mariner to hit 40+? Branyan's projected strikeout total would have been 187, sorry to those who were hoping he'd reach 200.

Is it fair though to assume Branyan would have kept hitting at the same rates? I think so given the sample size we're working with, but there are other rational arguments to be made. For instance, he was starting to drop off in the second half. His line from July 1 on was a measly .184/.279/.411 (note that OBP is still higher than Yunieskey Betancourt's was). Now that woeful line was somewhat a result of some BABIP issues, but there were also some noticeable decreases in skill. Russell's home run rate did drop, but from one home run per 15 PAs to one per 18, his walk rate fell from 13% to 10% and his strikeout rate rose from 26% to 34%.

Scary stuff, but it's just the last 50 or so games and there's not much of a reason to just ignore the first 70 games in favor of the gloomier picture just as there's not much of a reason to ignore those last 50 games in favor of the more optimistic picture.

Anyways, I just wanted to give some love to Russell Branyan and explore what his final counting stats might have looked like. And because it's been awhile, here's a poll!

The last Mariners to eclipse 40 home runs in a season was Alex Rodriguez, in 2000.

Poll

I think Russell Branyan, if not for the herniated disk, would have finished the season:

Top-5 Off-Season Questions for the Atlanta Braves: #4

gondeee — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 23:43:50 -0000

More photos » by John Bazemore - AP

Could Chipper Jones be instrumental in the Atlanta Braves re-signing Adam LaRoche?

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We continue our look at the top-5 questions facing the Atlanta Braves this off-season.

Question Four: Who will man first base for the Braves in 2010?

There was so much concern last year by the Braves at the trade deadline that they get a first baseman in return for Mark Teixeira. They settled, if you will, on the promise of Casey Kotchman -- he who had not yet fulfilled his potential as a major league player. Perhaps that was a theme of our team going into this season with Kotchman, Jeff Francoeur, and Kelly Johnson, all with great "potential," all who had rarely showed that potential. The trade for Adam LaRoche was a shock to most, and a gamble to many others, but it turned out to be a great deal, though it will leave the Braves with a potential hole at first (something they seemed to want to avoid a year ago). Here is what the Braves got and what they gave up in that trade.

Casey Kotchman's as a Braves player in 2009 versus Adam LaRoche as a Braves player in 2009:

Player	Games	Homeruns	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Casey Kotchman	87	6	41	.282	.354	.409
Adam LaRoche	57	12	40	.325	.401	.557

Unfortunately that was not enough to put the Braves in the post-season, but LaRoche was a major contributor to the excellent play of the team in the second half.

Here is a look at LaRoche's post-trade stats with the Braves compared to Mark Teixeira and Fred McGriff's post-trade stats in the year they were traded:

Player - Year	Games	Homeruns	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Fred McGriff - 1993	68	19	55	.310	.392	.612
Mark Teixeira - 2007	54	17	56	.317	.404	.615
Adam LaRoche - 2009	57	12	40	.325	.401	.557

He was not quite as much of a superhuman as the Crime Dog and Tex were, but he came mighty close. This begs the next question, which necessitates another chart, could Adam LaRoche keep this up for a full season?

Adam LaRoche's career stats...	Games	Homeruns	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
...before the All-Star break	464	63	242	.252	.326	.447
...after the All-Star break	374	73	227	.300	.363	.546

We all know this and it's true every single season he has been in the majors, he's better in the second half than he is in the first half. The Braves seem to want to keep LaRoche, and he may indeed want to stay in a Braves uniform. After all he has friends here and enjoys playing for Bobby Cox. Perhaps the one more year that Cox is going to manage will be enough to convince LaRoche to sign a one-year deal, that, and Chipper Jones constantly nagging him this off-season (they're hunting buddies, by the way).

For the Braves, LaRoche seems to be the best answer, even with his first and second half swings. If it takes a two-year deal to get him to come back, then that's a solid piece that would remain in the Braves lineup. But if he leaves, where does that leave Atlanta?

There are some other free agent first basemen who might take one-year contracts. Guys like Hank Blalock, Nick Johnson, and Russell Branyan, but none of them are ideal, and none offer quite the upside that LaRoche does. No other free agents really even come close to these four, and much like the closer market, the first basemen market is as lean as has been in years.

The Braves could use their mystery trade chip to acquire a first baseman, but do they want to trade a lot for a big time first base bat that may become obsolete once Freddie Freeman is ready. That question about Freeman raises some other questions. As I've said about our prospects all day in these top-5 questions, Freeman will also be playing in the Arizona Fall League, and while his time there will be watched just as closely as Heyward or Minor or Kimbrel, he is not expected to be major league ready next year. But will he be ready in 2011?

The Braves may choose to make their decision about first base in 2010 without considering Freeman's future. If they have to choose between signing LaRoche to a multi-year deal or plugging in a stop-gap and waiting for Freeman, they may choose to wrap up LaRoche and keep Freeman in the wings to complete his development, using him later on as a possible trade chip. Even with a three-year deal, Freeman would still only be 23 were he to debut in 2012.

The other internal candidates are not too exciting. Barbaro Canizares does not seem to be an everyday player, if he should even be considered a major leaguer. Martin Prado played plenty of first base, but he doesn't offer the power or middle of the order prowess that a first baseman should bring to the lineup.

I believe the Braves will certainly offer LaRoche arbitration, but the jury is still out on how aggressive they will be in re-signing him, especially for more than a one-year deal. I imagine we will get some indications early in the hot-stove season about the Braves intentions toward LaRoche, and we'll also get some intentions about whether LaRoche plans to test the free agent waters. LaRoche's decision may hinge more on the 2011 first base free agent class, which is a much deeper and talented class, than on anything else. If he signs a one-year deal, he may face much steeper competition next off-season. It is for this reason that I believe LaRoche will not return to Atlanta on a one-year deal. Now, that means he may be open to a multi-year deal, but that may not be in the Braves plans.

A lot of ifs at first base for the Braves this off-season. (Sorry if that went on for a while.)

Coming up later, Question Five: To Tender or to Non-Tender

Who Actually Had the Biggest Comeback in 2009?

Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 23:18:43 -0000

It's award season, and the NL and AL Comeback Awards winners were announced earlier today. Congrats to Chris Carpenter of the Cardinals and Aaron Hill of the Blue Jays for winning the award. It is supposed to go to the players that "re-emerged on the baseball field during a given season."

I decided to take the balloting results and compare the player's WAR from this year, a recent low year and a recent high. Then. I took the total swing in WAR from the high to the low to this season's WAR value . For example Aaron Hill had 3.5 WAR in 2007, 0.5 in 2008 and then 4.2 this year for a total swing of 6.7 WAR ((3.5 WAR -0.5WAR)+(4.2 WAR - 0.5 WAR).

NL Comeback Award Comparison

Here is a comparison of the vote getters in the NL:

Voting Rank	Name and Team	High Year	Previous High (WAR)	Low Year	Lowest Between High and 2009 (WAR)	2009 WAR	Total Swing in WAR
1	Chris Carpenter, STL	2006	5.2	2007	0.2	5.6	10.4
2	Yovani Gallardo, MIL	2007	2.6	2008	0.4	2.8	4.6
3	Josh Johnson, FLA	2006	2.5	2007	0.2	5.3	7.4
4	Todd Helton, COL	2007	4.9	2008	1.5	3.5	5.4
5	Aaron Boone, HOU	2007	0.3	2008	-0.2	-0.3	0.4
6	Pedro Martinez, PHI	2007	1.2	2008	0.1	0.6	1.6
7	Luis Castillo, NYM	2007	2.4	2008	0.6	1.4	2.6
8	Jeff Weaver, LAD	2007	0.9	2008	0	0.6	1.5
9	Jonny Gomes, CIN	2007	0	2008	-1.2	0.8	3.2
10	Peter Moylan, ATL	2007	0.6	2008	0	1.5	2.1
11	Mike MacDougal, WSH	2007	0.2	2008	0.1	-0.2	-0.2

NL Observations and the AL Comparisons after the jump

NL observations:

The voters got the winner correct.
The voters also got the next four correct with the exception of Gallardo being a little high
The wasn't a whole lot to choose from after the first 4.
In two cases the players WAR value did not increase in 2009 from the previous years. In one case, Aaron Boone had open heart surgery this off season and even getting on the field should warrant some votes. I have no clue how Mike MacDougal end up with votes.

AL Comeback Award Comparison

Now here is a comparison of the vote getters in the AL:

Voting Rank	Name and Team	High Year	Previous High (WAR)	Low Year	Lowest Between High and 2009 (WAR)	2009 WAR	Total Swing in WAR
1	Aaron Hill, TOR	2007	3.5	2008	0.5	4.2	6.7
2	Victor Martinez, BOS	2007	5.1	2008	0.9	4.8	8.1
3	Michael Cuddyer, MIN	2007	2.1	2008	-0.2	2.1	4.6
4	Jorge Posada, NYY	2007	7.1	2008	0.8	4	9.5
5	Russell Branyan, SEA	2006	1.1	2007	0.5	2.8	2.9
6	Scott Podsednik, CWS	2005	1.4	2006	-0.5	1.5	3.9
7	Juan Rivera, LAA	2006	2.7	2008	-0.7	3.5	7.6
8	Rajai Davis, OAK	2007	1	2008	0.6	3.5	3.3
9	Andruw Jones, TEX	2007	3.6	2008	-0.9	0.7	6.1
10	Travis Hafner, CLE	2007	2.2	2008	-0.8	1.1	4.9
11	Fernando Rodney, DET	2007	0.7	2008	0.4	0.3	0.2

Observations on the voting for the AL Comeback Award:

The winner here did not have the largest swing in WAR, Hill was actually 4 in total swing behind Posada, Martinez, and Rivera.
The swing values in the AL were much more than in the NL on average. There was only one swing value of less than 2.9 in the AL, but 6 in the NL.
I need to look back over 5 years to see the comeback of Scott Podsednik. He has the following WAR values from 2005 to 2009: 1.4, -0.5,-0.1, -0.4, 1.5
Fernando Rodney, like Aaron Boone and Mike MacDougal got votes for actually being worse this year than last year.
There seems to be a lot of love for Russell Branyan despite being having the 9th highest swing in WAR.

Congratulations, Russell Branyan

Jeff — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 22:54:55 -0000

Voting results came out today, and Branyan finished 5th for the American League's Comeback Player Of The Year. Word has it he would have placed higher had he actually come back from something. Aaron Hill's a decent enough pick, I guess, what with his brain problems a year ago, but I feel like rewarding people for getting knocked out by David Eckstein might be setting a bad precedent.

Chris Carpenter's the obvious and perfect selection in the NL. My only quibble is that, rather than Yovani Gallardo, second place should've gone to the Rockies.

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 AL Dynasty/Keeper 1B rankings

Ian, yo — Sat, 26 Sep 2009 22:14:53 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

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Now it's time for the top keepers/dynasty first basemen.

1. Miguel Cabrera- In his first full season in the American League, Miggy put up numbers pretty consistent with his past numbers. Cabrera is still very young and can have many many more years with these types of numbers. Currently ranking 4th on the ESPN player rater and top five overall in Yahoo leagues, Cabrera and his high average, 30+ home runs and 100+ RBI's should be a very consistent 1B for you in the future.

2. Mark Teixeira- Pretty much in the same boat as Cabrera, Teixeira is one of the most consistent players in fantasy baseball. He's widely known for being a slow starter and heats up later in the year but if you're playing in H2H leagues, he's what you're looking for. Currently hitting .292 with 37 HR and 118 RBI, and hitting in the Yankee jetstream, Teixiera could easily move to the top of this list.

3. Justin Morneau- Morneau was shut down near the end of the season with a stress fracture in his lower back and managed to put up a season rivaling other power first basemen in the AL. If you're looking for a consistent player to give you power numbers, he can be your guy. Coming off the injury could drop his value a bit in the offseason so if you plan on trading him, make sure you're getting fair value (healthy value.)

4. Kevin Youkilis- Youk missed a little time this season and still put up stats close to the players after him in this list. If Youk can have a full healthy season, we're looking at a season with a little less power than Teixeira and Cabrera, but should put up RBIs, runs and average. If you're in leagues that count OBP or OPS, Youk will be a straight up stud, putting up a .900+ OPS in his last two seasons.

5. Kendry Morales- Morales had a break out year in his first season as the Angel's 1B keeping with the 30/100 theme here. Morales is 2/7 in stolen base attempts and while playing on the Angels, you probably won't see those attempts go away next year. Maybe if you're lucky he grab you a few more steals, but those will just come as a bonus anyways.

6. Carlos Pena- This is the guy on this list that may get me the most criticism. I'm a huge fan of Pena and think he's very underrated by most based on his low average alone. Now, if Pena didn't miss the last month of the season, you could be looking at a 100/40/100 guy. On the surface, his .227 average is pretty horrendous, but if you check into his BABIP, you'll notice he had a season where he was a bit lower than his career number. Not that it would make a whole world of difference, you've gotta keep it in mind. Next year, Pena could fall in the draft because of his average, but if you can get three solid categories from your 1B, take it and be happy. Just try and draft someone who can give you a bit of an average boost in later rounds. Also, if your league counts OBP or OPS, Pena is your man.

7. Victor Martinez- V-Mart is a strong candidate to win the MLB Comeback Player of the Year in 2009. Martinez has put up numbers comparable to his previous seasons (minus his injury ridden 2008 season.) Martinez will have catcher eligibility again in 2010, but would still be a very valuable 1B in AL only leagues. While Martinez has hit only one home run in Fenway Park, he will be playing many games in Yankee Stadium (where he's hit four home runs in 37 ABs.) and in an offense as potent as Boston's, should remain a very good fantasy producer.

8. Michael Cuddyer- With Carlos Gomez and Delmon Young struggling in Minnesota, Cuddyer's put up a career year. While he's only hit 20 or more home runs one in his career (discounting 2009) he did hit 24 in 2006 and has shown the ability to hit for power. If you're looking for a guy who can get you anywhere from 20-30 HR and not kill you on average, Cuddyer is your man.

9. Billy Butler- Butler is finally having that breakout season everyone's been hoping for. Butler is only 23 years old and has put up a 20 home run, 90+ RBI season while hitting .300 on a poor offense. If Butler keeps improving as he's done over the last three years, we could be seeing another Victor Martinez, with less RBI's of course.

10. Paul Konerko- I was debating on whether or not to have Russell Branyan or Konerko as the last man on this list and decided that since Branyan is a free agent and has missed significant time with a back injury, I'd have Konerko round the list out. While Konerko is not nearly as successful as he was in his prime, he's still putting up close to 30 home runs with a decent RBI total and average. Konerko's BB% has dropped compared to the last two years, so if he makes a correction, we could be looking at even better numbers. Just keep in mind that he's 33 years old and will turn 34 before the 2010 season.

Almost as Good as Seeing Greinke: devil & Mrs. _fingers to Attend Baseball Game

devil_fingers — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 20:47:13 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

You better watch your back (at a baseball game) tonight, fat boy.

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It's been a weird week. I didn't blog much. I mean, compared to certain other people who allegedly are "on staff" here (I think "Kyle Boddy" might actually be a bot that signed me up. After I started writing for this blog, I did notice a lot of strange charges on my credit card and a bunch of erectile dysfunction medication, which I totally don't need, started showing up on our dorrstep) I churned out the content, but whatever.

Here's the deal, though. For the first time since the birth of Branyan Langerhans Fingers, the Mrs. and I are going out. It's a big deal. Some may recall that earlier this summer, we had good tickets to see Zack Greinke pitch when the Royals came up to visit the Blue Jays. Well, not only was that Zack's worst start of the season... but I didn't even get to go because I ended up in surgery for appendicitis.

Mrs. Fingers let the Jays know what was up and to see if they could give us "make up" tickets. And guess what? Despite the massive popularity and success of the Jays this season, they had replacement tickets for us! Thanks, Blue Jays. So, while I won't get to see the Royals and Greinke, I will get to see Roy Halladay. He's pretty good, I suppose, for a guy who probably won't even be worth 9 WAR this season. So that should be fun.

Not much else to say. The Royals are driving me nuts, "real life" has gotten busy, and so on. But here's the deal: if anyone is interested, I will be (hopefully) Tweeting LIVE from the game occasionally. Here's my Twitter feed. I'm sure I'll have all sort of brilliant insights. And I'll get to run into my kid's namesakes as well, perhaps, since the Mariners are in town. Or at least punch Jack Z. in the face for 'the incident.' Have a good weekend, everyone.

Current Series

Mariners lead the series 1-0

Thu 09/24	WP: Felix Hernandez (17 - 5) SV: David Aardsma LP: Jesse Carlson (1 - 6)	4 - 5 loss
Seattle Mariners Lookout Landing @ Toronto Blue Jays Bluebird Banter Friday, Sep 25, 2009, 7:07 PM EDT Rogers Centre Doug Fister vs Roy Halladay Partly cloudy. Winds blowing in from right field at 5-15 m.p.h. Game time temperature around 60. Complete Coverage >
Sat 09/26		10:07 AM PDT
Sun 09/27		10:07 AM PDT

2010 Yankees Center Field Showdown: Melky Cabrera vs. Brett Gardner vs... Cody Ross?

devil_fingers — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 15:12:29 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

"Don't celebrate my departure too soon (at a baseball game), boys. I hear Goldman wants Ca$h to bring in Cody Ross. Yeah, you heard, me, Cody Freaking Ross. He has a fan club and everything."

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In a recent Pinstriped Bible blog posting, Steven Goldman argued that while Melky Cabrera might be adequate for the moment as the starting center fielder for the Yankees, that the club should look elsewhere for next season. Goldman's main point:

It would be unrealistic to expect even a team with the financial capabilities of the Yankees to field an All-Star or MVP candidate at every position, but that's not a reason to keep striving to get better wherever you can, however you can. It is axiomatic that a team that accepts that it is "good enough" at a position will not win consistently, or at all. Complacency will kill a nascent dynasty faster than hamstring pulls and cigarettes combined.

There is much to comment on in this blog posting (see the Think Factory discussion). For example, calling Nick Swisher, he of the 3.6 WAR (that's about the same as Jason Bay or J.D. Drew at this point in the season), "inconsistent" is Joe Morgan-esque. Ignoring the Yankees other significant holes for 2010 is also curious. Indeed, the whole post, with its discussions of league-average offense by position, vague references to defense without numbers, etc., strikes me as a very "pre-FanGraphs" sort of approach to internet player analysis.

However, I'm not going to be issuing a bunch of snark regarding a good writer's problematic blog posting. Rather, taking Goldman's post as a jumping-off point, I want to look at three options for the Yankee 2010 CF that he mentions: Cabrera, Brett Gardner, and the Marlins' Cody Ross (for whom Goldman suggests the Yankees trade.). I will compare them utilizing less vague and more helpful concept of WAR (Wins Above Replacement).

I've done a number of these "true talent" postings lately (on Jason Bartlett, Jamey Carroll, and Matt Murton, among others), so you can look around the blog to see how it works. I won't review all of the "methodology" here -- it's pretty simple weighted averages and regression to the mean, etc. using publicly available data. There are no big secrets. I just don't want to make this more boring than it has to be. Feel free to ask in the comments section. I'll go component by component for all three players. These are "true talent" estimates based on information as of last night. I'll go component-by-component for all players, just to mix things up.

Hitting

Melky Cabrera is the youngest player of the group, being only 24 at the beginning of the current season. His major-league wOBAs from 2006-2009 are .333, .317, .285, and .328. Regressing to the mean and applying a slight age adjustment, that projects to about a .327 wOBA for next season. Given this season's run environment, that means he projects as a minus 1 run (one run below average) hitter for 2010.

Cody Ross is 28 this season and the best hitter of the three. He will be 29 next season. From 2006-2009 his wOBAs are .310, .446, .345, and .342. He projects as a .344 wOBA (+9) hitter next season.

Brett Gardner (who is only briefly considered in Goldman's post) is 25 this season. Gardner hit terribly in the majors in 2008, posting a .282 wOBA. He's been very good relative to expectations this season, sporting a .349. But given the sample size and his performance in the minors, I decided that I needed more data. So I tried something new. I got his MLE from the minors from 2007 and 2008, converted them to wOBA, and incorporated them into my data. I'm not sure how great the method it, but the result I got -- a .318 projected wOBA (-6/700 PA) -- is close enough to his preseason projections from CHONE, etc. that I don't think it's distorted.

Fielding

For the fielding portion, I used UZR as implemented at FanGraphs as my primary stat not only because I suspect it's the best defensive stat out there, but because it's publicly and freely available. I heavily regress outfield projectoins. I regress UZR based on Speed Score, as has often been suggested for OFs. Defensive stats being what they are, I also incorporated the Tom Tango's Fans Scouting Report Converted to runs. I usually do a weighted average 75% regressed UZR + 25% FSR, but for Gardner, given the extremely low sample, I did 50% regressed UZR + 50% FSR (his defense would project even better without the FSR!).

The Milkman has been up-and-down, defensively. While he's been decent according to UZR his season (+3.1/150), in 2007, when he had the most playing time, he was dreadful (-10.7). The Fans Scouting Report is even less enthusiatic, having him at -4.8, -2.4, -2.7, and -8.0 (2006-2009) according to my "translations." So it's a mixed bad. Altogether, he projects as a -2/162 defender in CF for next season.

Cody Ross has been similarly up-and-down. He's -7.1 UZR/150 in CF this season comes after an excellent +18.3 in 2008. He was terrible in limited time in 2007, but good in 2006. The FSR hasn't been too impressed, with a -9 in 2006, a -9.5 in 2007, and a -3.5 2008. But Cody's fan club must have been working overtime this season, as he's all the way up to 0.2. PUtting it all together, and adjusting for age as Ross enters his late 20s, he projects as a -1 /162defender in CF in 2010.

Like Nyjer Morgan, Brett Gardner is the kind of player who would have been dismissed a Juan Pierre wanna-be prior to the wide public availability of defensive stats. And his numbers are so outstanding in brief playing time that they have to be taken with a grain of salt. Or, as grains of salt are expressed here -- with plenty of regression. UZR has Gardner was an insane +56.8/150 in the OF in 2008 (in only 39 games), and +14/150 in 2009. The Fans Scouting Report shows its value here by not forcing us into either taking these on face value nor dismissing them completely. The FSR has Gardner at +4.2 in 2008, and +5.8 in 2009. Putting it altogether (note his impressive speed scores), Gardner projects as a +9 defender in CF for 2010.

Baserunning

Don't worry, almost there. I used Baseball Prospectus' excellent EqBRR for this portion. Since FanGraphs' version of wOBA includes steals, I substracted that portion out. Briefly -- both Melky and Cody project as pretty much average ("0") baserunners, while Gardner, even after heavy regression due to low playing time, projects as very good at +2 (keep in mind that the "spread" is very small).

Putting It All Together

The difficult in the "old days" would have been how to weigh offense (and then how to weigh OBP and SLG relative to each other, etc.) vs. vague assertions about defense, positional value, etc. Baserunning would probably be totally ignored. But the beauty of WAR is that, while one can debate over whether the projections were done correctly, how replacement level is set, positional adjustments, etc., one can at least get it all out on the table. So here it is... in a table (ahem). Since all three players are being projected at CF, the positional adjustment is +2.5 runs per 162 games. To account for the difference in league difficutly, following Tom Tango I use 20 runs as replacement per 162 games for the NL (Ross) and 25 runs for the AL (Cabrera and Gardner). It's easy from there: I sum all those toger to get Runs Above Replacement (RAR). Then I convert to WAR by multplying RAR times 85% playing time, then simply dividing by 10 to convert runs to wins.

Player	Hit	Field	BsR	Pos	Replace	RAR	WAR
Melky Cabrera	-1	-2	0	+2.5	+25	24.5	2.1
Cody Ross	+9	-1	0	+2.5	+20	28	2.4
Brett Gardner	-6	+9	+2	+2.5	+25	30	2.6

Goldman writes that Gardner is only "fractionally" better than Melky, and given the nature of WAR, 0.5 isn't a huge deal. But he does look better. What is interesting is that Gardner also projects to be better than Cody Ross. If you don't but the league adjustment, well, I'll just ask you to compare the NL East's pitching staffs with those in the AL East. Despite recent comedic assertions that Brett Gardner should only be at the head of a list of terrible baseball players, he's seems to be above average here (2 is about MLB average), and the best candidate of the three to play center field for the Yankees. He's another potential Endy Chavez (another defensive standout player underappreciated in the pre-UZR era), and might actually have a shot at having a league-average bat. Gardner might not be 1998 Bernie Williams in 1998, but he might be 2009 Nyjer Morgan.

But this isn't all about Gardner. Melky is still almost as good as Ross. Don't get me wrong -- Ross is a decent player that could help a lot of teams. But why should the Yankees trade talent for a guy who, if he's better, is himself "fractionally" better than the alternatives (at best), older, and, yes, getting more expensive? Even the Yankees operate on a budget, and as we've seen, even they occasionally need to rely on some homegrown talent (e.g., Robinson Cano, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, etc.) rather than free agency. Even if the Yankees should panic (they shouldn't) over Austin Jackon only hitting four home runs this season, they have cost-controlled talent that should be more than adequate in place.

Finally, given that they have a massive holes opening up in left field and at DH with the free agency of the declining Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui (not to mention their relatively shaky pitching), it seems to me that the Yankees considerable organizational resources would be better spent elsewhere, say, on Matt Holliday (easily the best free agent outfielder this season -- far superior to Jason Bay, but that's another post) for LF. If they must trade, make it for Adam Dunn as DH (although I'd suggest trying to sign Jim Thome or especially Russell Branyan for that position -- Branyan in particular can actually play the field a bit and will be cheaper).

These are much bigger issues than being "stuck " with a player who is "only" average or above-average at center field, a problem that wouldn't be solved by trading for an older player who isn't any better. On the other hand, if the Yankees really share Goldman's low appraisal of both Cabrera and Gardner, I know a team short a couple of outfielders...

32 Seasons of zMLE

TheJay — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 18:00:17 -0000

At Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski has made available for download three decades of minor league to major league translations (he calls them zMLE). You may recognize his name as the brains behind the ZiPS projection system. You can find the spreadsheets and a discussion of his number crunching here.

It's pretty fun to go through and look at the numbers of Brewers minor leaguers who never got a shot in the big leagues.

Steve Scarborough was an organizational shortstop for seven years in the system and somehow managed to quit playing without stumbling into a hitting coach job. I only knew of him because I saw a player with a really long name listening intently to Ned Yost during a spring training special a few years back. Now I can see just how his stats would have translated into the majors:

Year	Team	Level	AVG/OBP/SLG	zMLE
1999	Helena Ogden	R R	.303/.402/.507	None
2000	Beloit	A	.241/.323/.316	.227/.289/.281
2001	High Desert	A+	.255/.335/.412	.219/.282/.306
2002	Huntsville Indianapolis	AA AAA	.265/.358/.418	.227/.303/.370
2003	Indianapolis	AAA	.241/.290/.388	.214/.264/.352
2004	Indianapolis	AAA	.246/.342/.383	.224/.319/.349
2005	Nashville	AAA	.255/.323/.413	.237/.293/.368

Okay, so I guess there's a reason he never made it to the big leagues. But still, how cool is it that this sort of thing is out there?

Some other players of interest are after the jump.

Tony Zuniga was a career minor leaguer when the Brewers picked him up in 2005. He started the season in Huntsville and wasn't particularly impressive in the first two months of the season, hitting only .258/.321/.342 in just over 200 plate appearances. He was promoted to Nashville when veteran Kevin Orie was released. Zuniga took off, hitting .323/.376/.472 in 255 plate appearances. As you might expect, his zMLEs were night and day as well:

AA zMLE: .247/.299/.335 --- AAA zMLE: .285/.329/.410

Odd years were Zuniga's favorite seasons, I guess, as he had even more impressive campaigns in AAA in 2001 and 2003:

2001 AAA: .271/.363/.504 ---> .258/.342/.403
2003 AAA: .295/.362/.510 ---> .270/.334/.464

In 2001, he was behind the 3B triumvirate of Russ Davis, Ramon Martinez, and Pedro Feliz in San Francisco. In 2003, he was behind a sophomore-slumping Eric Hinske. The 2005 Brewers had Russell Branyan, Bill Hall, and Jeff Cirillo manning the hot corner. It's kind of disappointing that Zuniga couldn't get a cup of coffee in one of those seasons. He played in the Mexican League in 2006 and then disappeared, having never appeared in the majors.

Derek Hacopian was an offensive force both in college and in the low minors. After three seasons hitting home runs in the Indians chain, injury limited him to only 79 plate appearances in 1994. Already 25 and having never appeared above A ball, he was roster filler for the Beloit Snappers in 2005. He hit 23 home runs and generally made Midwest League pitchers miserable that year, hitting only .324/.407/.552. His zMLE for that year was .279/.341/.441 - pretty good for someone in A ball, even if he was old for the league. His reward was being traded to the Tigers for reliever Kevin Wickander. Unfortunately for Hacopian, the Florida State League dampened his numbers and he was done in the minors after 1996.

Have you ever heard of a guy named Cheol-Sun Bak? How about Chel-Soon Park or Chel Sun Park? He was the first South Korean signed by a major league team - your very own Milwaukee Brewers. They signed him following a 1979 Korean-American baseball tournament and Park spent two seasons in the Milwaukee system before returning to Korea and having a crazy 24-4, 1.84 ERA season in the Korean Baseball Organization. Hampered by injuries, he never again came close to those numbers but pitched until 1996.

He threw only 32 1/3 innings in A ball in 1980, so there's not much to go on, but he still had a nice zMLE for a guy crossing an ocean: 3.03 ERA with 32 hits allowed, 9 walks, and 16 strikeouts. In 1981, he struggled as a starter at both Class A Stockton and Class AA El Paso and the Brewers let him go at the age of 25. It's interesting to think about what could have been if the Brewers had spent more time developing him, but you can't argue with their results in those years. Despite Jeff Sackmann's best efforts, the Brewers have yet to have a Korean player appear in a major league game (unless you count Tommy Phelps, born in Seoul).

Obviously there are many, many, many things you can do with a spreadsheet like this. These are just a few names that caught my eye right off the bat. I encourage you to download the info, peruse it yourself, and see if you can find anything interesting.