SB Nation - Laynce Nix

Heroes of the Zeros: Left Field

Slyde — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 13:00:29 -0000

Of all of the positions on the All Decade Team, this one should be the clearest no-brainer. One person started 53% of the games in LF during the decade and had the best offensive numbers. The Reds did have some decent other hitters in LF, but none of them had the playing time to match up in my opinion.

Ballot is after the jump.

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	wOBA	WAR
Wladimir Balentien	2009	40	125	110	12	29	7	1	3	11	15	27	.264	.352	.427	.779	104	.345	0.5
Russell Branyan	2002-2003	158	460	393	56	91	21	1	25	65	61	155	.232	.337	.481	.818	112	.348	2.2
Jolbert Cabrera	2008	48	126	115	17	29	6	1	3	12	8	29	.252	.310	.400	.710	84	.305	-0.3
Brady Clark	2000-2002	151	242	206	29	47	7	0	6	29	28	27	.228	.325	.350	.674	73	.291	-0.6
Chris Dickerson	2008-2009	128	421	357	51	101	22	5	8	30	56	101	.283	.383	.440	.823	116	.361	2.7
Adam Dunn	2001-2008	1087	4562	3727	678	920	192	8	270	646	755	1212	.247	.380	.520	.900	130	.376	22.2
Jason Ellison	2007	37	56	48	7	9	1	0	1	2	5	15	.188	.278	.271	.549	41	.247	0.3
Jonny Gomes	2009	98	314	281	39	75	17	0	20	51	26	85	.267	.338	.541	.879	127	.367	0.6
Quinton McCracken	2006	45	60	53	5	11	1	1	1	2	4	9	.208	.263	.321	.584	47	.247	0.2
Darnell McDonald	2009	47	111	105	12	28	6	1	2	10	5	31	.267	.306	.400	.706	84	.309	-0.3
Laynce Nix	2009	116	337	309	42	74	26	1	15	46	22	81	.239	.291	.476	.767	98	.318	2.0
Deion Sanders	2001	32	83	75	6	13	2	0	1	4	4	10	.173	.235	.240	.475	21	.215	-1.0
Dernell Stenson	2003	37	93	81	14	20	5	0	3	13	11	24	.247	.333	.420	.753	100	.331	0.8
Dmitri Young	2000-2001	294	1179	1088	136	329	65	9	39	157	73	157	.302	.348	.486	.835	108	.350	1.4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 12/22/2009.
WAR data made available from BaseballProjection.com
wOBA calculated via the formula included in The Book and does not include SB data.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:41:40 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

I wasn't able to find a picture of Gregg Zaun blocking a pitch, but here's one of him blocking the plate from a baserunner. You get the idea.

Browse more photos »

Some things to read while coming so close.

Thanks to Rubie for filling in yesterday while I was on my way back from a long travel weekend. I'm home now and will also write Mugs tomorrow and Thursday, health permitting: Somewhere on my travels, I managed to pick up a cold. If today's Mug drifts off into incoherence, now you know why.

The holiday week is usually a quiet one for transactions, but Adam McCalvy said the Brewers likely aren't done adding players in a recent Inbox. He also handled questions on a possible Opening Day lineup, Zach Braddock, and the roof at Miller Park.

Further proof that Gregg Zaun is a better catcher than Jason Kendall, at less than half the price: Beyond the Box Score's Catcher Block Percentage rankings have Zaun listed as the best catcher in baseball at preventing wild pitches and passed balls, adding roughly seven runs per 120 games to his value. Jason Kendall was worth roughly two runs, while Mike Rivera projected out to 5.5 runs per 120 games.

Speaking of Rivera, he's signed a minor league deal with the Yankees, with an invitation to spring training.

Meanwhile, LaTroy Hawkins has probably already finished packing and moving, because he's got plenty of experience in the field. The Northwest Indiana Post-Tribune notes that the Brewers will be Hawkins' eighth team.

Speaking of much traveled pitchers, Adam Foster of Project Prospect had an interesting note on John Halama: He faced 210 batters in winter ball and issued just three walks. Halama's Dominican team has been eliminated from postseason contention, along with Alcides Escobar and Hernan Iribarren's Venezuelan team. For more on that, plus notes on several new Brewers and the winter ball debut of Angel Salome, check out today's oversized Winter League Update.

And, while I'm self promoting, you have until 4 pm today to vote for a fifth outfielder and 4 pm tomorrow to vote for a #2 starter on our BCB All Decade Team. Also, follow us on Twitter.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Have reportedly reached a deal to acquire Brandon Morrow from the Mariners for pitcher Brandon League and a minor leaguer.
Braves: Signed infielder Joe Thurston to a minor league deal.
Indians: Acquired pitcher Mitch Talbot as the PTBNL in the Kelly Shoppach deal, and signed reliever Saul Rivera to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed utilityman Danny Richar to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed Jason Marquis to a two year, $15 million deal.
Padres: Acquired catcher Dusty Ryan from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Phillies: Announced plans to exercise Jimmy Rollins' option for 2011.
Pirates: Signed reliever Javier Lopez to a one year deal.
Rangers: Signed Darren Oliver to a one year deal.
Reds: Re-signed Laynce Nix and restructured and extended Scott Rolen's contract.
Tigers: Signed pitcher Phil Dumatrait and catcher (and former Brewer minor leaguer) Andy Bouchie to minor league deals.
White Sox: Claimed pitcher Freddy Dolsi off waivers from the Tigers.

I've mentioned this topic several times: sorry if you don't think it's interesting, but I find it fascinating. The Blue Jays are apparently bucking the minor league per diem trend and giving their players $25 dollars a day for meal money instead of $20 next season. The change will cost the team less than $50,000, but could go a long way towards helping their prospects get proper nutrition.

With 93 career wins, a Cy Young Award, and six straight seasons with an ERA under 4, Pete Vuckovich has a lot to be proud of from his major league career. Of course, all of that pales in comparison to his induction into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

Happy birthday today to:

2003-2005 Brewer Wes Obermueller, who turns 33.
1992 Brewer Andy Allanson, who turns 48.

And a couple of belated ones I missed over the weekend:

Chris Narveson turned 28 on Sunday.
LaTroy Hawkins turned 36 yesterday.

Drink up.

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

View full size photo »

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Weekend Mug (of tea)

morineko — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 05:19:24 -0000

You may want to put down your owls before reading this post....

As you've probably figured out, I'm the third and final weekend editor to make a debut post here on BCB. You may know me from my many comments and parenthetical remarks. My weekend mugs are tea, preferably lychee-flavored, to keep me awake while I finish this post full o' links.

The Arizona Fall League season is over and the Peoria Javelinas are its champion. They defeated the Phoenix Dirt Dogs 5-4 on Saturday. Jonathan Lucroy went 1 for 4 with a single and run scored and Zach Braddock struck out 3 in one inning of work. Mark Rogers, who did not appear in the game, is satisfied with his AFL experiences.

Extra Bases offered its readers a challenge: create your own team of free agents. Their contest is over, but it's still a good puzzle. Better yet, try to pick what sort of team Doug Melvin would create out of the pool of free agents.

Roy Halladay doesn't want to sign with Toronto. He probably doesn't want to sign with the Brewers, either. It looks like another year of largely irrelevant Halladay madness in the media.

This weekend's (sort of) notable transactional excitement:

Diamondbacks: Add Cole Gillespie (and others) to the 40-man roster.
Pirates: Claim pitcher Chris Jakubauskas on waivers, designate Jeff Karstens for assignment. No word if Dave Kerwin is behind the move.
Reds: Laynce Nix has elected free agency.
Royals: Pitchers Doug Waechter and Devon Lowery have refused assignment and become free agents.
The non-notable 40-man additions before the deadline are over at Baseball America's Prospect Blog.

It's been a slow weekend for Brewers news. If you're not inclined towards football, you can go read a book. My baseball reading for this week was Minnesotans in Baseball, a published version of the Minnesota SABR chapter's work on the Biography Project. There's a fairly large section in there about Paul Molitor. At least in nonfiction one doesn't need to worry about characters named for airplane parts.

The Astros most impressive performances in 2009: The relievers

DyingQuail — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:39:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

Browse more photos »

Why are we fretting so much about Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins? I mean aside from the fact that they're talented pitchers with above average ability. Closers, and the set-up men whose shoulders they stand on, enter games in situations where we as fans have our stomach in knots. In someone like Valverde's case, he toes the rubber and pumps 97 MPH fastballs while mixing in, most of the time, a devastating split-finger pitch.

With starters, each at bat doesn't have the feeling of importance that a closer's does. A starter always has another inning or two to work with, and there are still plenty outs for the offense to work with, too. But relievers are leveraged.

Why the waxing sentimental? Because that's how I arrived at today's post. Instead of combining starters and relievers into one mess of who had the best WPA added in a single game, I decided to isolate which relievers had the best WPA added in a single PA.

No. 1 - LaTroy Hawkins on June 13th

This was an awkward day of Hawkins. Valverde was working himself back into the job that Hawkins had dutifully filled for him in his extended DL stay. So, I guess it's understandable that Hawkins starts on of his final 9th inning save opportunities a little shaky.

via www.fangraphs.com

With the Astros leading 6-4, Hakwins quickly found himself with runners on first and second and none out. Hawkins rebounded with a GIDP on Justin Upton that netted him an astounding .293 WPA on a single PA due to a leverage index of 5.91 (a run at that point would have been like Jon Garland giving up 5.91 runs to start the top of the first, or half a Jason Jennings here or here).

No. 2 - Jelf Fulchino on June 7th

Cecil Cooper trots out Tim Brydak to start the bottom of the seventh. Two batters latter, Cecil Cooper brings in Jeff Fulchino to clean up a bases loaded, no outs jam. Yes, Fulchino gives up two runs, but the situation had an RE of 2.30, so technically Fulchino saves our butts, because the third run puts the Pirates in the drivers seat.

via www.fangraphs.com

Finally, though, Fulchino is on the receiving end of an Adam LaRoche double play and the inning is over. For his trouble, Fulchino is credited with .245 WPA, and has the satisfaction of knowing that he had the second most leveraged out of the year.

No. 3 Jose Valverde on September 29th

Some of us may not remember this one because, well, the Astros were depressing to watch at this point. However, there was still some excitement to experience.

via www.fangraphs.com

The story is pretty similar to the above. Valverde got himself in trouble to start the inning, but rallied to get out.Yet again, another double play ball, netting him .236 WPA on the GIDP of Laynce Nix. This begs the question, do the pitchers get the credit or does the defense? Or does it matter because all we're looking for are spectacular moments in relief pitching?

Like yesterday, what are the moments I missed because I did this by the numbers? Only, no poll because having to actually read the article to vote didn't mesh well with getting a lot of responses.

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:42:24 -0000

Yes, this is a picture of Trevor Hoffman with his dog from the Brewers' 2010 Pet Calendar, via Adam McCalvy. This might be the slowest news day ever.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while having it both ways.

If we're not hearing much from the Brewer front office this week, it's because they're in Arizona working on a plan for the offseason.

Here's proof that it's been a quiet week: The Brewers' Wives announced the release of their 2010 Pet Calendar, and it's one of today's top stories.

Keith Law chatted with fans again yesterday, and View From Bernie's Chalet has a roundup of all the Brewer-related notes. Today's topics include a terrible Ryan Braun trade proposal and Rickie Weeks.

The full article is Insider-only, but Jason Gray of ESPN has a look at Jonathan Lucroy, and the sudden shift that has led to him being considered the organization's top catching prospect.

Elsewhere in the minors:

I don't remember if I've seen/mentioned this previously, but Baseball America's Minor League Transaction Report noted that the Brewers re-signed former first round pick Mike Jones as a minor league free agent. Jones reached AAA for the first time in 2009.
The Timber Rattlers are asking for your help to pick a first baseman for their 15th anniversary team. Follow the link for bios on the candidates, then jump over to the front page to vote.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Claimed pitcher Sean Henn off waivers from the Orioles and designated Michael Barrett for assignment.
Mariners: Outrighted first baseman Bryan LaHair, and pitchers Randy Messenger, Cesar Jimenez and Marwin Vega to AAA. Vega is the only one who won't become a minor league free agent.
Orioles: Declined their option for 2010 on Melvin Mora.
Pirates: Claimed left handed pitcher Justin Thomas off waivers from the Mariners.

Do you have software development and/or engineering skills and the desire to find a job where you can spend the day talking sports? SB Nation is hiring for a couple of positions.

Oh, and speaking of open positions, you have until the end of the day today to express interest in the Weekend Editor position here at BCB. I'm planning on making a decision tonight or tomorrow.

Happy birthday today to Manny Parra, who turns 27. Hopefully Rick Peterson turns out to be an early birthday present for him.

Elsewhere, happy birthday to:

Laynce Nix, who turns 29.
Former Brewer farmhand Marco Scutaro, who turns 34.
Dave Valle, who played in 16 games for the 1994 Brewers and turns 49.
And a posthumous happy birthday to longtime Milwaukee Brave Joe Adcock, who would have turned 82.

Drink up.

Checking out Bill James Projections for 2010

Slyde — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 14:50:17 -0000

We're still a week away from the World Series, but now is as good of a time as any to start checking out projections for the 2010 season. I've gotten my hands on the initial set of Bill James Projections for next season, so I thought I'd share them with you. The full set of projections will be available with much, much more in the 2010 Bill James Handbook, which comes out next month and you can pre-order here.

I've broken the projections down a bit into groups, the first set being players who don't really have competition for their position (yet), and the following sets split up among players from 2009 who could be part of a position competition. First, the "starters":

**Starters**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Jay Bruce	.296/.351/.540	.223/.303/.470	574	.274/.340/.537
Paul Janish	N/A	.211/.296/.305	188	.223/.301/.319
Brandon Phillips	.263/.313/.431	.276/.329/.447	613	.269/.322/.434
Scott Rolen	.268/.356/.453	.305/.368/.455	482	.278/.357/.442
Joey Votto	.307/.386/.536	.322/.414/.567	502	.311/.397/.550

The James projections were way off on Bruce, as most systems were. As you can see though, they are still very optimistic about the young right-fielder. I think that is justified since he suffered from quite a bit of statistical bad luck last season, but I think we all know that he still has some adjustments that he needs to make at the plate before he'll likely achieve that projection. Offensively, Janish is a black-hole, but if he's the only one and he doesn't bat 2nd, his defense is well worth having in the lineup. BP's projection is what it almost always is. I'd like to see more power from Rolen, but I think that ship has sailed. Votto is...well...awesome.

**Left Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Wladimir Balentien	.239/.312/.444	.234/.305/.385	160	.244/.316/.431
Jonny Gomes	.251/.356/.486	.267/.338/.541	278	.245/.331/.486
Darnell McDonald	N/A	.267/.306/.400	174	.270/.321/.414
Laynce Nix	N/A	.239/.291/.476	214	.257/.309/.467

Based on these projections, there aren't a lot of outstanding prospects for a typically high offensive position like left field. I'd still like to see Gomes brought back, especially given these other options. However, I'm also not convinced that Balentien can't outperform those projections. I'm not sure if he's good enough for an everyday starter role, but I think he could potentially put up a little more power.

**Center Field**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Chris Dickerson	.268/.360/.454	.275/.370/.373	254	.276/.372/.429
Drew Stubbs	N/A	.267/.323/.439	544	.267/.336/.390
Willy Taveras	.267/.323/.315	.240/.275/.285	277	.271/.322/.321

To be honest with you, I'd give Chris Dickerson the starting job in center field next year, if I thought he would stay healthy. I wouldn't be upset if Drew Stubbs is out there, especially if his power surge last season is real (the James Projections don't think so). Willy Taveras should be gone.

**Catcher**
Name	2009 Projection	2009 Actual	2010 Projection
Name	AVG/OBP/SLG	AVG/OBP/SLG	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG
Ryan Hanigan	.275/.357/.382	.263/.361/.331	344	.277/.361/.366
Ramon Hernandez	.253/.319/.411	.258/.336/.362	120	.260/.328/.405

Surely no one thinks that Hernandez is worth $8 million more than Hanigan next season.

What do you think? Are they way off anywhere? Does this change your opinion of any of the players?

I'm gonna keep on loving you, Arroyo Speedwagon. Reds win, 6-1.

Brendanukkah — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 04:20:27 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Graynd Slaym. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Laynce Nix. The Daynce Mix hit his first career grand slam to lead the Reds over the Cardinals.

Key Plays

Scott Rolen and Jay Bruce led off the second inning with walks, and RBI man Ryan Hanigan hit a single to score Rolen. Bronson Arroyo then singled to load the bases, and Drew Stubbs also drew a walk to force in Bruce. Reds 2, Cardinals 0.
The walks continued to haunt in the third inning. Brandon Phillips walked, Rolen doubled, and Bruce walked again. Up stepped Laynce Nix and bye bye baseball. Grand slam! Reds 6, Cardinals 0.
Nix was still feeling swell after his homer, and let Skip Schumaker's ball fall under his glove for a double. Albert Pujols then drove him in with a single. Reds 6, Cardinals 1.
Bronson left the game with one out in the ninth, after having walked Troy Glaus. Nick Masset came in and gave up a single to Pujols, a fielder's choice to Matt Holliday, and a walk to Colby Rasmus, before striking out Ryan Ludwick with the bases loaded. REDS WINNARS!

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Reds can do no worse than split the season series with the Cardinals. A win tomorrow gives them a 9-7 advantage.
The Reds went 18-9 in September, the only month in which they did not have double digit losses. Four of those losses were to Colorado, and five of those losses were by only one run.
John Smoltz complained that the game balls had not been properly rubbed with mud. Obviously it didn't seem to affect Arroyo, but Bronson did share this interesting nugget: "They don't mud them up as much here as they do at other places. It was a cool night, and it's hard to hold on sometimes." Could a mudding deficiency help explain some of our historically lackluster pitching?
Who says Dusty Baker ruins arms? Listen to why he pulled Arroyo with one out in the ninth: "He said he was running on empty and his legs were spent," Baker said. "When I heard that, you go get him, especially late in the season, 111 pitches and Pujols up there."
Joey Votto and Paul Janish both hit doubles. It was Votto's 16th double in September and Janish's tenth (out of 37 and 20 on the year, respectively).
Arroyo won 15 games for the second year in a row. He hasn't given up more than three runs in a game since July 22.
The Brewers lost, so the Reds are only one game out of third place.

Final - 9.30.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	X	6	8	0
WP: Bronson Arroyo (15 - 13) LP: John Smoltz (1 - 3)

Complete Coverage >

Ain't supposed to die on a Saturday night: Reds lose to Dodgers, 11-4.

Brendanukkah — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 15:18:56 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

"And the two behind the glove are even bigger, dingleberry!" (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Orlando Hudson. The #7 hitter went 2-3 with a home run, RBI, and two runs scored. He also made a nice diving play on a grounder hit by Scott Rolen to snuff out a rally.

Key Plays

As is their wont, the Reds made sure they were playing from behind right away. Juan Pierre singled with one out, and then Manny Ramirez took Maloney deep for his first home run since Aug. 11. 2-0, Dodgers.
The hit parade continued the next inning. Mark Loretta and Orlando Hudson singled to start things off, and Brad Ausmus singled to score Loretta. With Hudson on third, Charlie Haeger sacrificed Ausmus into scoring position as well, and Rafael Furcal hit a sac fly to bring in O-Dawg. Juan Pierre then got his second hit of the game, but Drew Stubbs made a nice throw to nail Ausmus at the plate. 4-0, Dodgers.
In the third inning, the Reds finally figured out Haeger's knuckleball in a big - albeit unlikely - way. Craig Tatum led off the inning with his first career home run. Silent treatment in the dugout for you, Craiggers. One out later, Drew Stubbs worked a walk, to Dusty's chagrin, and stole his first base in the majors. Anyone want to lay odds that Stubbs will steal 99 more bases before Taveras steals 75 more? At any rate, Paul Janish hit a home run, his first of the year. Then the usual suspects went to work. Joey Votto doubled and Brandon Phillips brought him around to score with a single. That was the end of the night for Haeger, and the Reds had tied the game, 4-4.
Rafael Furcal broke the deadlock in the fifth, with a solo home run.
The Reds looked poised to get that run back and maybe more in the bottom of the fifth. Votto led off with a single off of Jeff Weaver, and Brandon Phillips hit a double that moved Votto to third. Scott Rolen was hit by a pitch, and the bases were loaded with no outs. You can guess what happened next. Wladimir Balentien grounded into a fielder's choice as Furcal threw Votto out at home. Jonny Gomes popped up, and Tatum struck out to end the threat.
Take two. In the sixth inning, the Reds again loaded the bases, this time with two outs. Janish doubled, Votto was walked intentionally, and Phillips reached on an infield hit. Ramon Troncoso relieved Weaver, and induced a grounder from Scott Rolen. Hudson made a nice play, and the threat was over.
Not a great day for Maloney, but it was even worse outing for Carlos Fisher. Fisher has quietly had a good season, but not today. Pinch-hitter Andre Ethier doubled to start the seventh, and Furcal reached on a bunt single, then advanced to second when Fisher threw it away. Juan Pierre singled and drove in the two baserunners, while somewhere Willy Taveras could only sit and wonder how he did that. Fisher than walked Manny Ramirez, but immediately gave up a three run homer to Matt Kemp. Danny Ray Herrera came in in relief, got two outs, but then gave up a home run to Orlando Hudson, LA's fourth homer of the game. Six runs scored in the inning, and the Dodgers had their final lead, 11-4.

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

The Dodgers have now won 21 of 25 over the Reds since 2006. No wonder Dusty is enamored of the Dodger Way -- or are the Dodgers so good because Dusty is some kind of Manchurian Candidate? Hmm....
The Reds are now up to 109 runs surrendered in the first inning. That's nearly one per game, which means the Reds are almost always starting out behind the eight ball.
Why did the Reds not score with bases loaded and no outs? Jeff Weaver explains: "Sometimes you use their aggressiveness against them," Weaver said. "That's what I did." Fuck. You. Dusty. Fuck. You. Jacoby.
The Reds continue to have all the health of pre-teen coal miners. Brandon Phillips was hobbling after his hits yesterday, and Laynce Nix has a bulging disk in his neck.

Final - 8.29.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Los Angeles Dodgers	2	2	0	0	1	0	6	0	0	11	13	1
Cincinnati Reds	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	11	2
WP: Jeff Weaver (6 - 4) LP: Matt Maloney (0 - 3)

Complete Coverage >

Dodgers Look To Rebound Against Reds

Eric Stephen — Sat, 29 Aug 2009 16:48:46 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

Charlie Haeger has allowed three runs in two starts so far for the Dodgers.

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The Dodger offense was dormant for eight innings last night, not coming alive until the ninth. It reminded me of two games from earlier this season:

June 1: The Dodgers were down 3-0 to the Diamondbacks entering the ninth inning, then rallied for two runs, but fell short, losing 3-2. The next night, the Dodgers were able to mount a successful late comeback, turning an eighth inning 5-1 deficit into a 6-5 win. The Dodgers won four of their next five, including two straight walk-offs by Andre Ethier.
August 3: The Dodgers were down 6-2 to the Brewers entering the ninth inning, but mounted a furious rally that came up just short when Manny Ramirez popped out with the bases loaded to end the 6-5 loss. The next night, the Dodgers scored 17 runs.

Charlie Haeger gets the start for the Dodgers today, his first road start as a Dodger. Haeger has performed well so far, pitching seven innings in each of his first two Dodger starts. The last pitcher to start his Dodger career with three straight starts of seven innings or more was another knuckleballer, Tom Candiotti, who had four straight in 1992.

In the Pacific Coast League this season, Haeger made 13 starts on the road, and was 6-5 with a 2.44 ERA.

Jonathan Broxton's next game finished will trigger a $50,000 incentive bonus in his contract. He has finished 44 games so far this year, and can earn a total of $200,000 if he finishes 60 games on the season.

Matt Maloney, a 25-year old rookie who struggled in three starts earlier this season, has been recalled from Louisville to make today's start against the Dodgers. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports that Maloney has been working on some new pitches:

One of the main reasons for the demotion was an inability to keep the ball in the park. He had six homers over 17 2/3 innings -- two long balls in each start.

"I didn't have a pitch that I consistently have them hit the ball on the ground with," Maloney said. "The home runs are what hurt me when I was up here before. That's why I made a big effort to go back to figure out the sinker me and [pitching coach] Dick Pole were working on. It's worked really well for me down there."

Laynce Nix sat out yesterday for the Reds with a sore neck, but in this report by John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Dusty Baker had a truly baffling quote:

"He had a collision with someone a couple years ago, and never had an MRI until today."

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Be sure to check out Xeifrank's simulation of today's game.

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