SB Nation - Laynce Nix

2010 N.L. Central Preview: Cincinnati Reds

Charlie — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 04:44:30 -0000

More photos » Mark Duncan - AP

The Reds' fortunes depend heavily on the bat of Jay Bruce.

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IN: 2B Aaron Miles, SS Orlando Cabrera, SP Aroldis Chapman

OUT: UT Adam Rosales, OF Willy Taveras

2009 W-L: 78-84

PYTHAGOREAN W-L: 76-86

OFFENSE: The Reds didn't have much of an offense last year, and this offseason they did little to address it. True, Orlando Cabrera should do a better job than 2009 Reds shortstops, who posted a .636 OPS, but he's 35 and has never been a great hitter. The Reds also signed Scott Rolen to a two-year extension, but he too is old and has been fading for years. Also, he's very likely to require a WAAAHmbulance if he isn't already in a doctor's office by the time the season is done--he has a pattern of whining his way from team to team, at least when he isn't hurt. Then there's catcher Ramon Hernandez, who likewise is in his mid-30s and isn't that great anymore. (The Reds resigned him because he's "clutch.") I'm sure Dusty Baker is happy, but that's an awful lot of thirtysomething mediocrity for one team.

That's too bad, because the Reds' offense does boast some good young talent. Joey Votto is already one of the best hitters in the National League and was probably operating at the top of his game last year, and Drew Stubbs probably won't develop into much more than he is now (although a good defensive CF who can hit a little is already pretty valuable). But Jay Bruce still isn't even 23 yet, and he has a ton of headroom. He already has big-league power, and he controlled the strike zone fairly well last year, but he hit only .223. Everything Bruce did in his career before 2009 says that he's not a .223 hitter. He probably needs to make adjustments at the plate, since his low average last year wasn't purely a matter of luck, as Jonah Keri pointed out in June--Bruce's 13% line drive rate was the second-worst of any player with 300 or more plate appearances last year (beating only Ronny Cedeno; uh oh). Bruce's flyball tendencies play very well in the homer-happy Great American Ballpark, but very poorly elsewhere; he's exhibited extreme home/road splits in both his big-league seasons.

Let's say that Bruce does break out, though--his extra production is pretty likely to be offset by a sudden collapse by one of their three veterans. And while the Reds have several interesting hitters (and I haven't even mentioned Brandon Phillips, whose combination of power and defense makes him a big asset at the keystone), they don't have any surefire hitting prospects coming through their system. (Todd Frazier looks like a solid player but not a star; Yonder Alonso is recovering from a wrist injury, has barely played above Class A+, and doesn't have a position right now; and Chris Heisey's Class AA breakout last year was offset by a rather weak performance at Class AAA.)

Also, neither Walt Jocketty nor Dusty Baker are particularly good at figuring out how best to distribute roster spots and playing time to flawed players--the 2009 Reds gave 250 or more plate appearances to four guys who posted OPSes of .620 or lower. That's reasonably likely to happen again. The Reds don't have a set starter for their third outfield spot, and they'll probably work with some combination of Jonny Gomes, Wladimir Balentien, and Chris Dickerson, with Heisey and perhaps also Josh Anderson and Laynce Nix working their way in at some point. Some managers could do fine with that combination of players, but I have little faith that Baker will. (The Reds were recently rumored to have been in the market for Garret Anderson; their fans have to be breathing a sigh of relief that the Dodgers got him first.) And if any of the Reds' thirtysomething hitters do go down, watch out, because the backup plans leave a lot to be desired.

PITCHING

Even if we grant that Edinson Volquez won't do much of anything this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August, the Reds have a good pitching staff. Aaron Harang, Bronson Arroyo and Johnny Cueto are a pretty good front three, and former top prospect Homer Bailey made reasonable progress in 2009 after a terrible season in 2008. The Reds don't know who their fifth starter will be, and I certainly wouldn't put it past Baker to pick someone like Justin Lehr, who was maybe the single least impressive starting pitcher I saw in the majors last year. But Matt Maloney and youngster Travis Wood are actually very palatable options, so the Reds are pretty well covered in case of an implosion. Aroldis Chapman will probably be mentioned as a candidate too, but I don't really see it--he's a project, and he should start the year in the minors.

Predicting how any team's bullpen will do is tricky, but the Reds have enough good arms--closer Francisco Cordero, Nick Masset, Jared Burton, the ageless Arthur Rhodes, mighty mite Danny Herrera, Carlos Fisher, plus the leftover fifth starter options--that they're probably going to be fine.

PROGNOSIS

The Reds have plenty of talent at the big league level, and if a bunch of things go right for them, it wouldn't be a shock if they contended. Their reliance on veterans concerns me, though, as does the lack of good backup plans if those veterans fall apart, as veterans often do. Walt Jocketty was the architect of some very good Cardinals teams, but most of them relied very heavily on a core group of stars; he wasn't very clever at finding solid complementary players, especially position players. It's no accident that, for example, Kerry Robinson got about six times more plate appearances with the Cardinals than he got in the whole rest of his big-league career.

That's important, because the Reds' core stars are not as good as the Cardinals' were. Votto is great, but he's no Albert Pujols. Jay Bruce is no Jim Edmonds, at least not yet. And Scott Rolen is no Scott Rolen. The Reds' farm system is decent, but it's filled mostly with potentially average players rather than great ones (the Chapman signing was sort of a Hail Mary pass to find a great player; I'm a lot more skeptical of Chapman than a lot of people are). So it'll be on Jocketty and Baker to sort through these potentially average players to find out who can contribute, and that's just not the sort of work they're very good at.

Things aren't all doom and gloom, though--not by any means. The Reds' pitching is deep and fairly strong overall, and there's enough hitting talent to hope on, at least. This is a pretty good team. I doubt, though, that it will become an excellent, perennial-contender type of team in the near future.

3. Cincinnati Reds 80-82

4. Milwaukee Brewers 76-84

5. Houston Astros 73-89

6. Pittsburgh Pirates 70-92

Red Reposter - OMG!! Votto and Alonso are Totally BFFs!!

Charlie Scrabbles — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 12:00:36 -0000

Mark Duncan - AP

GUITAR SOLO!!

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Joey Votto says he's not passed the problems that sidelined him last season
"A lot of people want miracles," he said. "Life’s not like that. I’m making progress. I’m going in the right direction."

I think it's pretty easy to underestimate just how difficult this kind of thing must be. And it's really good to see Votto be so realistic about it. I'm rooting for this guy 100%. Not as a ballplayer, but as a person.
Yonder Alonso says he is learning a lot from Votto
In fact, the two have become good friends. "I thought when I first came in, ‘Man, it is going to be hard dealing with Votto,’ " Alonso said. "But it was the exact opposite. He has just done nothing but help me out and been a good friend. He told me how Albert Pujols (of the St. Louis Cardinals) helped him out a lot and he is trying to do the same for me."
The bidding is now open for the opportunity to be in a team photo with the Reds
Me, I'd be too embarrassed to do such a thing. A scrawny idiot with a goofball smile and two thumbs up would be hilariously conspicuous in a photo with 24 imposing athletes and Danny Ray Herrera.
Sheldon wonders what the addition of Jonny Gomes does to the LF sitch
so he asked Dusty:

"I don't know yet," he said. "We have tremendous talent up there. We have Dickerson. Gomes is a heck of a hitter. We have Nix, who did a good job for us. Balentien, I heard he had a good winter. Heisey was our [minor league] player of the year. I don't know Anderson and I heard a little bit about Dorn. We're trying to go north with the best team that can go north."

He also says Todd Frazier and Juan Francisco will start in the infield, likely at 3B. Once they get their infield legs on them they will check out the outfield too. I think for those of us wondering what the Reds thought of Frazier this is an interesting tidbit. It seems they see him as an infielder first. Whether that means 3B, SS, 2B, or 1B remains to be seen.
Jerry Crasnick has a piece on Aroldis Chapman's transition to this American life . PeteyHendrix FanShot'd this yesterday.
"We keep reading about his maturity," Jocketty said. "But from everything we've seen, he's a very mature kid, and very intelligent and baseball-savvy. I wonder what people are basing [their comments] on, because it's not like the Cuban coaches are going to tell you that. Maybe it's coming from guys who couldn't get him signed."
Jack Moore at FanGraphs checks out the situations of a pair of guys who are out of options
Wladimir Balentien is one of them. Moore says Balentien is clearly behind Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce, and Chris Dickerson and Jonny Gomes are probably ahead of him too. He says a poor spring from Balentien could lead to Laynce Nix taking the 5th OF spot. I don't really believe that though. Balentien is still only 25, and though he's struggled in the majors, he still has potential. Nix is what he is and only has a minor league deal. I think the Reds outfield, barring any injuries, is pretty well set.
Gomes is purty happy with his new deal with the Reds
Fay has the deets too: $800K this season with an option for next at $1.75 mil. That's much friendlier than the $3 mil or so he would have gotten if offered arbitration. You gotta hand it to Mr. Jocketty. He read the market this winter like a dime-store novel.
Doc says the Reds are still an "if" team
"If A. Harang can remember who he used to be… If H. Bailey and J. Cueto can keep the curve trending upward… If D. Stubbs is the answer at leadoff and J. Bruce is a consistent force in the middle of the lineup… If C. Dickerson stays healthy and J. Gomes stays powerful.. If, when we ask J. Votto, ‘how are you feeling?’ we’re wondering about a tight hamstring… "

Lucky for us though, he says the Cardinals are the only team that clearly looks better. And of course, he gets in his obligatory "small-market" jab.
FanGraphs fantasy page compares Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez
and concludes that they are essentially equal. Votto posted a wRC+ (a nifty little stat that works like better version of OPS+) of 157 last season while Gonzo clocked in at 158. Both project to regress a bit next season for different reasons, but still remain premiere options at 1B. But they give the edge (in fantasy terms) to Votto for playing his games at GABP instead of Petco.
Dan Turkenkopf at BtB takes an interesting look at the relationship between wrist injuries and power
which is even more interesting to me as a Reds fan, since one of our best prospects broke his hamate bone last summer.

How did Jocketty do this off-season?

Slyde — Fri, 19 Feb 2010 12:00:26 -0000

Al Behrman - AP

Let me introduce you to my new friend.

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The Reds started this off-season by lowering expectations. Almost from the get-go they let us know that they didn't have a lot of money to spend, so don't expect any big signings. But while all of that was happening, General Manager Walt Jocketty was working the phones in the background. Let's take a look at how the off-season panned out:

November

The Reds mainly did a bunch of roster shuffling with minor leaguers in November. They needed to get the roster all lined up for the Rule 5 draft, so they cleaned out some chaff (Kevin Barker, Darnell McDonald, Corky Miller, and Justin Lehr) and moved some guys off the of the 60-day DL (Edinson Volquez and Mike Lincoln). They finished out the 40-man roster by adding seven minor leaguers including Chris Valaika, Chris Heisey, Travis Wood, and Logan Ondrusek.

The one big league signing that they made was the re-signing of catcher Ramon Hernandez to a $3 million deal with a $3.25 million option for 2011 that becomes guaranteed if he plays 120 games in '10. Reactions were mixed. Justin called it a "decent little bargain."

Both Kip Wells and Laynce Nix filed for free agency and Craig Tatum was picked up by the Baltimore Orioles. Lehr and Wilkin Castillo were re-signed and assigned to the minor leagues.

December

The Reds signed free agent shortstop Chris Burke to a minor league deal. Jonny Gomes filed for free agency after the Reds decided to not offer him arbitration. Nix was re-signed to a minor league deal.

It was about this time that we started figuring that nothing was going to happen with the Reds this off-season. Then the Reds pulled a surprising move and signed Scott Rolen to a 2-year extension that reworked he current deal so that he would only make $7.7 million in 2010 instead of $11 million. We were generally happy about the deal.

The biggest thing about the Rolen deal was that the Reds would be saving some money in 2010, which likely meant they wouldn't have to dump a contract or two - though don't bother trying to tell that to a Mets fan, who are still convinced Bronson Arroyo or Aaron Harang is coming to them with Brandon Phillips for Luis Castillo any day now.

January

The new year started off with a flurry as the Reds signed speedy (and not much else) outfielder Josh Anderson to a minor league deal. It was a signing that felt like the same old, same old from the Reds. Oddly though, around the same time the Reds were starting to be mentioned in rumors for a young Cuban left-hander named Aroldis Chapman.

On January 11th, those rumors became truth as the Reds announced the signing of the 22-year old fire-baller. Reds fans frankly didn't know what to think. But we were certainly excited. The deal was for 5 years at $30.25 million with a player option for a 6th year at $5 million. There are lots of clauses and such all over the deal, but the money is somewhat spread out as over half of the guaranteed money is in a signing bonus that is paid over 10 years. Despite what John Heyman thinks, this was a good deal for the Reds and possibly the biggest outside free agent signing in team history. It showed the Reds were serious about using money to sign amateurs out of Latin America, a strategy they've been developing for a couple of years.

The Reds closed out January by signing hard-throwing right-hander Jose Arredondo, who had been released by the Angels and is due to have Tommy John surgery. The deal was obviously made for 2011.

The Reds watched Ben Sheets work out and Miguel Tejada signed with the Orioles, which meant one more shortstop was unavailable. Silly rumors about Johnny Damon sprang up and fizzled. Miguel Cairo was signed to a minor league deal on the 27th.

The Reds closed the month by signing Orland Cabrera to play shortstop. Reviews were mixed. The deal was for a $2.2 million in 2010 with a $4 million option in 2011 with a $1 million buyout.

February

The month started with a bang as Willy Taveras and Adam Rosales were traded to the Oakland A's for Aaron Miles and a player to be named later. There was much joy in Redsland, though Justin reminded us that the man we got back was no great shakes.

The Reds finished off the off-season action by signing Kip Wells to a minor league deal.

And that's where we stand. The Reds didn't do much to make over the roster for 2010. Orlando Cabrera is likely the only new everyday player. However, they did do some work on building for the future. So, what grade do you give Jocketty and staff for the work they did this winter?

Poll

What grade would you give Walt Jocketty for this past off-season?

A

364 votes

B

819 votes

C

235 votes

D

52 votes

F

15 votes

1485 votes | Poll has closed

Heroes of the Zeros: Pinch Hitters

Slyde — Wed, 30 Dec 2009 13:00:18 -0000

We round out our All Decade team with a a couple of pinch hitters, one from the right side and one from the left side. Unlike past polls, the numbers listed below are only for that player as a pinch hitter, which is why some of them are so lousy. You can take the player's entire batting numbers into account, if you'd like, but I figured I'd only show them as pinch hitters in this instance. Lefty pinch hitters and the ballots are after the jump.

Click header to sort table by column
RH PH	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Brady Clark	100	84	20	5	1	13	12	1	10	.238	.330	.333	.663	.324
Wily Mo Pena	71	68	12	1	3	11	2	0	31	.176	.211	.324	.535	.232
Norris Hopper	51	42	15	1	0	4	5	0	7	.357	.420	.381	.801	.357
Ruben Mateo	45	39	3	0	1	2	5	0	12	.077	.200	.154	.354	.180
Alex Ochoa	44	38	7	2	0	5	4	1	8	.184	.273	.237	.510	.267
Andy Phillips	37	36	9	0	2	6	1	0	8	.250	.270	.417	.687	.345

Click header to sort table by column
LH PH	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	IBB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA
Russell Branyan	49	36	4	1	0	1	5	12	0	22	.111	.347	.222	.569	.293
D.T. Cromer	64	61	18	4	0	2	9	1	0	19	.295	.297	.459	.756	.333
Jacob Cruz	154	131	34	10	0	4	19	20	2	42	.260	.364	.427	.791	.342
Wilton Guerrero	54	47	17	1	0	0	3	4	0	7	.362	.412	.383	.795	.343
Scott Hatteberg	51	42	4	0	0	0	2	8	1	9	.095	.235	.095	.331	.169
Hal Morris	44	36	12	2	0	2	6	5	2	4	.333	.419	.556	.974	.396
Laynce Nix	40	34	8	4	0	1	5	6	1	13	.235	.350	.441	.791	.330
Reggie Taylor	86	81	20	4	1	4	13	4	0	33	.247	.282	.469	.751	.315
Javier Valentin	176	161	34	6	0	6	30	14	0	37	.211	.273	.360	.633	.279
John Vander Wal	31	27	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	13	.037	.161	.037	.198	.122

Heroes of the Zeros: Left Field

Slyde — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 13:00:29 -0000

Of all of the positions on the All Decade Team, this one should be the clearest no-brainer. One person started 53% of the games in LF during the decade and had the best offensive numbers. The Reds did have some decent other hitters in LF, but none of them had the playing time to match up in my opinion.

Ballot is after the jump.

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	wOBA	WAR
Wladimir Balentien	2009	40	125	110	12	29	7	1	3	11	15	27	.264	.352	.427	.779	104	.345	0.5
Russell Branyan	2002-2003	158	460	393	56	91	21	1	25	65	61	155	.232	.337	.481	.818	112	.348	2.2
Jolbert Cabrera	2008	48	126	115	17	29	6	1	3	12	8	29	.252	.310	.400	.710	84	.305	-0.3
Brady Clark	2000-2002	151	242	206	29	47	7	0	6	29	28	27	.228	.325	.350	.674	73	.291	-0.6
Chris Dickerson	2008-2009	128	421	357	51	101	22	5	8	30	56	101	.283	.383	.440	.823	116	.361	2.7
Adam Dunn	2001-2008	1087	4562	3727	678	920	192	8	270	646	755	1212	.247	.380	.520	.900	130	.376	22.2
Jason Ellison	2007	37	56	48	7	9	1	0	1	2	5	15	.188	.278	.271	.549	41	.247	0.3
Jonny Gomes	2009	98	314	281	39	75	17	0	20	51	26	85	.267	.338	.541	.879	127	.367	0.6
Quinton McCracken	2006	45	60	53	5	11	1	1	1	2	4	9	.208	.263	.321	.584	47	.247	0.2
Darnell McDonald	2009	47	111	105	12	28	6	1	2	10	5	31	.267	.306	.400	.706	84	.309	-0.3
Laynce Nix	2009	116	337	309	42	74	26	1	15	46	22	81	.239	.291	.476	.767	98	.318	2.0
Deion Sanders	2001	32	83	75	6	13	2	0	1	4	4	10	.173	.235	.240	.475	21	.215	-1.0
Dernell Stenson	2003	37	93	81	14	20	5	0	3	13	11	24	.247	.333	.420	.753	100	.331	0.8
Dmitri Young	2000-2001	294	1179	1088	136	329	65	9	39	157	73	157	.302	.348	.486	.835	108	.350	1.4

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used Generated 12/22/2009.
WAR data made available from BaseballProjection.com
wOBA calculated via the formula included in The Book and does not include SB data.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

Kyle Lobner — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 14:41:40 -0000

Some things to read while coming so close.

Thanks to Rubie for filling in yesterday while I was on my way back from a long travel weekend. I'm home now and will also write Mugs tomorrow and Thursday, health permitting: Somewhere on my travels, I managed to pick up a cold. If today's Mug drifts off into incoherence, now you know why.

The holiday week is usually a quiet one for transactions, but Adam McCalvy said the Brewers likely aren't done adding players in a recent Inbox. He also handled questions on a possible Opening Day lineup, Zach Braddock, and the roof at Miller Park.

Further proof that Gregg Zaun is a better catcher than Jason Kendall, at less than half the price: Beyond the Box Score's Catcher Block Percentage rankings have Zaun listed as the best catcher in baseball at preventing wild pitches and passed balls, adding roughly seven runs per 120 games to his value. Jason Kendall was worth roughly two runs, while Mike Rivera projected out to 5.5 runs per 120 games.

Speaking of Rivera, he's signed a minor league deal with the Yankees, with an invitation to spring training.

Meanwhile, LaTroy Hawkins has probably already finished packing and moving, because he's got plenty of experience in the field. The Northwest Indiana Post-Tribune notes that the Brewers will be Hawkins' eighth team.

Speaking of much traveled pitchers, Adam Foster of Project Prospect had an interesting note on John Halama: He faced 210 batters in winter ball and issued just three walks. Halama's Dominican team has been eliminated from postseason contention, along with Alcides Escobar and Hernan Iribarren's Venezuelan team. For more on that, plus notes on several new Brewers and the winter ball debut of Angel Salome, check out today's oversized Winter League Update.

And, while I'm self promoting, you have until 4 pm today to vote for a fifth outfielder and 4 pm tomorrow to vote for a #2 starter on our BCB All Decade Team. Also, follow us on Twitter.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Have reportedly reached a deal to acquire Brandon Morrow from the Mariners for pitcher Brandon League and a minor leaguer.
Braves: Signed infielder Joe Thurston to a minor league deal.
Indians: Acquired pitcher Mitch Talbot as the PTBNL in the Kelly Shoppach deal, and signed reliever Saul Rivera to a minor league deal.
Marlins: Signed utilityman Danny Richar to a minor league deal.
Nationals: Signed Jason Marquis to a two year, $15 million deal.
Padres: Acquired catcher Dusty Ryan from the Tigers for a PTBNL or cash.
Phillies: Announced plans to exercise Jimmy Rollins' option for 2011.
Pirates: Signed reliever Javier Lopez to a one year deal.
Rangers: Signed Darren Oliver to a one year deal.
Reds: Re-signed Laynce Nix and restructured and extended Scott Rolen's contract.
Tigers: Signed pitcher Phil Dumatrait and catcher (and former Brewer minor leaguer) Andy Bouchie to minor league deals.
White Sox: Claimed pitcher Freddy Dolsi off waivers from the Tigers.

I've mentioned this topic several times: sorry if you don't think it's interesting, but I find it fascinating. The Blue Jays are apparently bucking the minor league per diem trend and giving their players $25 dollars a day for meal money instead of $20 next season. The change will cost the team less than $50,000, but could go a long way towards helping their prospects get proper nutrition.

With 93 career wins, a Cy Young Award, and six straight seasons with an ERA under 4, Pete Vuckovich has a lot to be proud of from his major league career. Of course, all of that pales in comparison to his induction into the MLB Mustache Hall of Fame.

Happy birthday today to:

2003-2005 Brewer Wes Obermueller, who turns 33.
1992 Brewer Andy Allanson, who turns 48.

And a couple of belated ones I missed over the weekend:

Chris Narveson turned 28 on Sunday.
LaTroy Hawkins turned 36 yesterday.

Drink up.

The NL Central Offseason Revue Pt. 2: The Red Menace

the red baron — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 16:35:23 -0000

Um, I think Jocketty is the one on the left.

View full size photo »

I decided I'm going to try and do these in order from best to worst in the division; unfortunately, that now means I have to try and come up with preseason predictions before the offseason is even half over. Not a great idea on my part, really; I should have done them in alphabetical order or something. Oh, well. Too late for such considerations now, I suppose.

Of all the teams in the Central, perhaps none is so enigmatic as the Cincinnati Reds. Every spring for god knows how many years now we've heard the constant refrain, "Look out for the Reds this year. This is the year they finally turn that corner." Now, to be fair, we hear much the same thing about the Pirates, but predictions of Pittsburgh's rise are always couched not in terms of contention, but in terms of near-winning baseball. Thus, even as the predictions are made, our natural inclination toward Piratic indifference kicks in. The Reds, on the other hand, are a different story.

See, the thing about the Reds is this: they have some really, really good players. Players I would love to have on my team. They stole Brandon Phillips from their in-state rivals just a couple offseasons back, right from under the Cards' noses, even as Junior Spivey was busily reminding us not all reclamation projects end up reclaiming anything. Sometimes the ship stays sunk. (By the by, I'm proud to say I was one of the people hoping and advocating for the Cards to bring in Phillips. Sadly, our voices were not heard.) The Reds have some outstanding young arms. Their closer is one of the better ones in the business. (Still not worth his contract, but that's another issue entirely.) The right fielder is the guy the Cardinals really wanted in 2005; they chose Colby Rasmus specifically because he was the most similar player to Jay Bruce in the draft. There is some real talent here.

Yet somehow, year after year, those cries which warn us of the approaching Cincinnati domination always turn out to be wrong. Every year the Reds find some way not to win. It's gotten to the point I almost fear the offseason when no one cautions against the Reds; perhaps the spell will then be broken and this long-benighted franchise will step fully into the light. Or, perhaps not.

Either way, a little insurance can't possibly be a bad thing.

This is the year, folks. Watch out for the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds 2009 Record: 78-84, 13 games out of first

Pythagorean Record: 76-86 (673 runs scored, 723 allowed)

It was another disappointing year for the Reds, who came into the 2009 season with one of the most promising teams Cincinnati has seen in years. There was tons of optimism, and rightfully so; the Reds' rotation was immensely talented and young, just beginning to come into its own. Unfortunately, the struggles of youth and the injury bugbear combined to rob the Reds of their pitching bite, and the offense simply wasn't good enough to compensate.

Offense: After years of watching the Dunn/Griffey led Reds mash their way through the division while failing to hold anyone to less than seven runs per game, the 2009 Reds were a positively anemic change of pace. The Cardinals were not a particularly prolific offensive team, but the Reds made them look positively potent by comparison. (I'm feeling quite loquacious this morning, by the way. Does it show?) The Cardinals scored 730 runs, 57 more than the limp-lumbered lads from Cincy. Nearly six wins worth of offensive production is nothing to sneeze at.

While the Reds' problems at the platter in 2009 were legion, one can point to two areas in particular which acted as anchors around the necks of the Redlegs. On the one hand, you have the outfield. Then, on the other hand, you have the infield.

One of the more glaring issues for the Reds was the appallingly average sophomore slump of Jay Bruce, who followed up what was a very encouraging debut season with, essentially, the exact same performance. Not that that's the worst thing in the world, mind you; Bruce's OPS+ was 97 in '08 and 100 in '09, making him exactly league average, but this is Jay F. Bruce we're talking about here. He's young, yes, but you still don't expect him to be duking it out with Skip Schumaker for the title of Averagest HItter in all Baseballdom.

The good news, for Cincinnati fans at least, is this: Jay Bruce is still a better hitter than what he's shown in the majors. I feel completely confident in saying I still expect Bruce to be a star, given time to grow and better health. Unfortunately, I can't say the same for the rest of the Reds' outfield. This is, after all, a team which paid Willy Taveras actual, honest to god money to post a .559 OPS over the course of 400+ at-bats. Laynce Nix proved a source of superfluous Y's and steroid speculation, but little else. (Well, except against the Cardinals, that is.) He did put up an OPS+ of 98, but from a left fielder, you've got to expect a bit more thump. The lone real bright spot for the Reds was Johnny Gomes, who hit quite well in the Great American Bandbox, to the tune of an .879 OPS. Unfortunately, Johnny Gomes plays defense like Chris Duncan using an oven mitt. Still, beggars can't be choosers, I suppose.

On the infield, things were a bit more of a mixed bag. The right side of the Reds' gamut of grounder grabbers was brilliant, with Joey Votto establishing himself as a legitimate force (OPS of .981 for the season), and Brandon Phillips turning in another of his usual five-tool showcase performances. The left side of the infield, however, oy. Not so much. Paul Janish and Adam Rosales took the lion's shares of at-bats at shortstop and third base, respectively, and both posted OPS's in the low .600s. (Janish took the low .600s thing to the extreme, posting a .601.) Jerry Hairston played a fair amount at various positions all over the diamond and was a little better, though he still wasn't inspiring shock and awe in too many opposing pitchers.

Now that's the bad news. The good news (again, for Reds' fans), is that there will be different faces at several positions for 2010. Drew Stubbs, the Reds' uber-athletic Mike Cameron clone, came up late in the season and displayed a wide base of exciting tools in center field. Stubbs has speed, he has power, and he can go get it with the best of them in the field. The only thing holding him back is his tendency to take lots and lots of empty swings. Sort of a center field version of Tyler Greene.

The other big upgrade the Reds can count on is, of course, our old buddy Scott Rolen. Rolen came over from the Blue Jays in a midseason trade and played quite well for the Reds, hitting .270/.364/.401 and playing defense which was nearly Rolenesque. The Rolen of old is gone and he's never coming back, but the new model is still a substantial upgrade over what the Reds were trotting out most of the season.

Starting Pitching

What was supposed to be the biggest strength for the Reds ended up helping to drag them down. As the year opened, there were some touting the Reds' 1-2 rotation punch of Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto as the best in the National League, and perhaps one of the best in all of baseball. Sadly, Volquez succumbed to injury, having Tommy John surgery in early August, and Cueto seemed to take a step backward from his rookie campaign, even though he ended up with a lower ERA for the season. Cueto started off hot, then imploded in the late summer months, allowing an opponent's OPS of 1.026(!) in July and .938 in August. He did turn things around a bit at the end of the season, pitching better in September, but it wasn't enough to wash away the sins of the previous two months.

As strange as it sounds, Bronson Arroyo actually had sort of an okay year. Sort of. Kind of. He went 15-13, 3.84, gave up less hits than innings pitched (214 H in 220.1 IP), and struck out almost twice as many batters as he walked. Now, as to how he did it, I honestly have no idea. Every time I saw Arroyo, he was being yanked out of the game after giving up five runs in two and a third. He's basically Swamp Gas II: the Swampening at this point for me. Homer Bailey continued to frustrate those of us who believe prospect ranking should count for something, damn it, by not turning into Nolan Ryan, but there were positive signs. While his overall numerical profile doesn't inspire much confidence, Bailey did pitch extraordinarily well in September, going 4-1, 2.08 and striking out 42 batters in 43.1 innings while walking 19. Let's put it this way: if Walt or Dusty decide Homer's just not going to work out up there, I would be more than happpy to take him off their hands.

Elsewhere in the Reds' rotation, Aaron Harang was bad again, Micah Owings was a really good hitter, and Kip Wells gave Cincinnati a taste of the 2007 Cardinal magic.

The rotation could very well still be a strength in 2010 for the Reds. If Bailey really has turned a corner and Cueto can find a bit of his early-season magic after Memorial Day, Cincy could have a nice tandem atop the rotation. Add Volquez possibly returning for the stretch run, and that's an intriguing trio. And as much as it pains me to say it, you could probably do worse than Bronson Arroyo and the Harangutan for your 4th and 5th spots. (Then again, for what the Reds are paying those guys, they could also do miles better.)

Bullpen

And now we come to the real strength of the Cincinnati Reds: their bullpen. (I'll take 'Sentences I Never Expected to Speak' for $600, Alex.) After years of wandering in the desert, searching for relievers, the Reds seem to have finally found the guys to put the kibosh on any late-inning uprisings.

Francisco Cordero is not worth his contract. We'll just get that out of the way up front. Nonetheless, he's a very, very good pitcher even as he enters his mid 30s, posting a 2.16 ERA last season. He could fall off a cliff, but I don't think he will. I think we're just going to have to put up with him being good for the near future. Maybe we could get Spiezio to sober up and just pinch-hit during series with Cincinnati...

The biggest difference for the Reds between 2009 and past seasons was the emergence of Nick Masset and Danny Ray Herrera, the Screwball Kid himself, as legitimate setup men. In the past, even when the Reds had a player who could shut the door at the end of the game (remember when Todd Coffey looked like a good pitcher for like three months? Wasn't that weird?), there was nothing in the way of a bridge to get there. With Masset and Herrera, the Reds finally have that bridge.

The rest of the Redleg relief corps was solid but nothing spectacular. Arthur Rhodes was good, making me wish the Cardinals had more Rhodehouse and less Diner, but secondary LOOGY certainly isn't anything to get too very upset about.

Offseason Priorities

To be honest, I'm not sure how much Walt Jocketty and the rest of his communist cronies are going to be doing this offseason. The very same thing that makes the Reds such an intriguing team is the thing which makes them so difficult to improve. The Reds are a transitional team, and the opportunity cost of bringing in marginal upgrades may just prove to be a bit too steep. Add in the fact Cincinnati appears to have very little breathing room in terms of payroll, and I think it will likely be a relatively quiet offseason for Jocketty and Co.

The two big opportunities for the Reds to make upgrades are at shortstop and left field; unfortunately, upgrading at either of those spots is easier said than done this winter. The Reds lack the financial capacity to get into the bidding for either of the big LF prizes, Holliday or Jason Bay, and most of the other players available would represent a middling upgrade at best. The Reds have two players in their system, Todd Frazier and Chris Heisey, who both could see time in left in 2010. Frazier is a third baseman by trade, but earns his keep mostly with the bat, and could see outfield time a la Allen Craig just to get him into the lineup. Heisy is a speedy, plus-defense type with a line-drive swing and fair on-base skills. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Reds bring back Gomes as a LF/1B guy on days when Votto isn't playing and try to work one or both of Heisy/ Frazier in slowly with ABs in left.

Shortstop, on the other hand, might be a bit more interesting. There aren't a whole lot of guys out there, but there are a couple decent names. If the Reds were looking for an offensive upgrade, either Miguel Tejada or Felipe Lopez could offer a bat for a fair value. Of course, both have significant questions surrounding their abilities to play shortstop, but hey, I said offensive upgrade. If Cincinnati decided to go more for a defense-first guy, Orlando Cabrera can still pick it with the best of them. Regardless, I think shortstop is the most likely position to look toward if the Reds are going to make a move this offseason.

I'm sure Jocketty and Baker would like to pick up a more dependable arm for depth in the rotation, but I'm not sure they'll have the payroll to do so. The Reds are already paying Harang and Arroyo gobs of money; they may try to deal for an arm but I don't see a signing there. The bullpen actually needs the least help of all; they may sign a guy to replace Rhodes if he leaves or something like that, but I think the relief corps is largely set.

The Bottom Line

Do I think the Reds are going to be better than Milwaukee? I must, since I did them before the Brew Crew, right? The answer is a decided and unequivocal maybe. I think the Reds have the potential, certainly, to improve more than probably any other team in the division, simply based on their young talent base. I think the Brewers largely are who we think they are, a team of tremendous offensive talent and very, very limited pitching resources. The Reds, on the other hand, have a lot of untapped potential on both sides of the equation, and depending on how things break, they could vault up the standing in the Central or remain the same enigmatic bunch of underachievers they have been for years now.

I think the addition of Scott Rolen was a cataclysmically bad one, but, paradoxically, I also believe he'll make the Reds better in the coming season. He should provide just enough offense while helping the pitchers out significantly.

In the end, the success or failure of the Reds' 2010 season will likely have little to do with what, if any, moves Walt Jocketty makes this winter. Rather, the fate of the first season of the new decade (eat it, Matty!), will hinge largely on the three pillars upon which we've been told Cincinnati's new glory would be built for years: Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce, and Joey Votto. If those three are the players they were thought to be on the way up, the Reds could very well make some noise. If not, it could be another very long summer in the home of the world's shittiest chili.

The Baron's Playlist for the 16th of December, 2009: the Christmas Catalogue

(In no particular order, by the way)

"Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
"Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree" - Brenda Lee (listen closely; she's actually saying fucking pie. Seriously.)
"You're All I Want for Christmas" - Brook Benton
"A Change at Christmas (Say it Isn't So)" - the Flaming Lips
"Merry Xmas Everybody" - Slade
"Jingle Bell Rock" - Bobby Helms (this is the song that will one day force me to pull to the side of the road and cry when my mother is gone)
"White Christmas" - The Drifters (sorry, but this one is way, way better than the Bing Crosby version)
"Happy Christmas (War is Over)" - John Lennon and Yoko Ono
"Blue Christmas" - Elvis Presley
"Happy Holidays" - Alabama (I really, really hate Alabama, but I loved this song when I was a kid listening to the old True Value Hardware Christmas records)
"We're Going to the Country!" - Sufjan Stevens
"Peace on Earth/ Little Drummer Boy" - David Bowie and Bing Crosby
"Marshmallow World" - Dean Martin
"God Rest Ye, Merry Gentlemen" - Nat King Cole (another True Value special)
"Frosty the Snowman" - The Ronettes
"Jingle Bells" - Glenn Miller
"I'll Be Home for Christmas" - Frank Sinatra
"I Want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" - Gayla Peevey
"Christmastime is Here" - The Vince Guaraldi Trio (sadly, this song underwent one of the worst remasters I believe I've ever heard just a couple years ago; find the old, unremastered version.)
"Christmas Wrapping" - the Waitresses (this song is utter crap. I fucking love it.)

I'm going to stop at 20. It's tough for me to do, but I'm going to do it.

Weekend Mug (of tea)

morineko — Sun, 22 Nov 2009 05:19:24 -0000

You may want to put down your owls before reading this post....

As you've probably figured out, I'm the third and final weekend editor to make a debut post here on BCB. You may know me from my many comments and parenthetical remarks. My weekend mugs are tea, preferably lychee-flavored, to keep me awake while I finish this post full o' links.

The Arizona Fall League season is over and the Peoria Javelinas are its champion. They defeated the Phoenix Dirt Dogs 5-4 on Saturday. Jonathan Lucroy went 1 for 4 with a single and run scored and Zach Braddock struck out 3 in one inning of work. Mark Rogers, who did not appear in the game, is satisfied with his AFL experiences.

Extra Bases offered its readers a challenge: create your own team of free agents. Their contest is over, but it's still a good puzzle. Better yet, try to pick what sort of team Doug Melvin would create out of the pool of free agents.

Roy Halladay doesn't want to sign with Toronto. He probably doesn't want to sign with the Brewers, either. It looks like another year of largely irrelevant Halladay madness in the media.

This weekend's (sort of) notable transactional excitement:

Diamondbacks: Add Cole Gillespie (and others) to the 40-man roster.
Pirates: Claim pitcher Chris Jakubauskas on waivers, designate Jeff Karstens for assignment. No word if Dave Kerwin is behind the move.
Reds: Laynce Nix has elected free agency.
Royals: Pitchers Doug Waechter and Devon Lowery have refused assignment and become free agents.
The non-notable 40-man additions before the deadline are over at Baseball America's Prospect Blog.

It's been a slow weekend for Brewers news. If you're not inclined towards football, you can go read a book. My baseball reading for this week was Minnesotans in Baseball, a published version of the Minnesota SABR chapter's work on the Biography Project. There's a fairly large section in there about Paul Molitor. At least in nonfiction one doesn't need to worry about characters named for airplane parts.

The Astros most impressive performances in 2009: The relievers

Stephen Higdon — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 17:39:23 -0000

Why are we fretting so much about Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins? I mean aside from the fact that they're talented pitchers with above average ability. Closers, and the set-up men whose shoulders they stand on, enter games in situations where we as fans have our stomach in knots. In someone like Valverde's case, he toes the rubber and pumps 97 MPH fastballs while mixing in, most of the time, a devastating split-finger pitch.

With starters, each at bat doesn't have the feeling of importance that a closer's does. A starter always has another inning or two to work with, and there are still plenty outs for the offense to work with, too. But relievers are leveraged.

Why the waxing sentimental? Because that's how I arrived at today's post. Instead of combining starters and relievers into one mess of who had the best WPA added in a single game, I decided to isolate which relievers had the best WPA added in a single PA.

No. 1 - LaTroy Hawkins on June 13th

This was an awkward day of Hawkins. Valverde was working himself back into the job that Hawkins had dutifully filled for him in his extended DL stay. So, I guess it's understandable that Hawkins starts on of his final 9th inning save opportunities a little shaky.

via www.fangraphs.com

With the Astros leading 6-4, Hakwins quickly found himself with runners on first and second and none out. Hawkins rebounded with a GIDP on Justin Upton that netted him an astounding .293 WPA on a single PA due to a leverage index of 5.91 (a run at that point would have been like Jon Garland giving up 5.91 runs to start the top of the first, or half a Jason Jennings here or here).

No. 2 - Jelf Fulchino on June 7th

Cecil Cooper trots out Tim Brydak to start the bottom of the seventh. Two batters latter, Cecil Cooper brings in Jeff Fulchino to clean up a bases loaded, no outs jam. Yes, Fulchino gives up two runs, but the situation had an RE of 2.30, so technically Fulchino saves our butts, because the third run puts the Pirates in the drivers seat.

via www.fangraphs.com

Finally, though, Fulchino is on the receiving end of an Adam LaRoche double play and the inning is over. For his trouble, Fulchino is credited with .245 WPA, and has the satisfaction of knowing that he had the second most leveraged out of the year.

No. 3 Jose Valverde on September 29th

Some of us may not remember this one because, well, the Astros were depressing to watch at this point. However, there was still some excitement to experience.

via www.fangraphs.com

The story is pretty similar to the above. Valverde got himself in trouble to start the inning, but rallied to get out.Yet again, another double play ball, netting him .236 WPA on the GIDP of Laynce Nix. This begs the question, do the pitchers get the credit or does the defense? Or does it matter because all we're looking for are spectacular moments in relief pitching?

Like yesterday, what are the moments I missed because I did this by the numbers? Only, no poll because having to actually read the article to vote didn't mesh well with getting a lot of responses.

Friday's Frosty Mug

Kyle Lobner — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 13:42:24 -0000

Yes, this is a picture of Trevor Hoffman with his dog from the Brewers' 2010 Pet Calendar, via Adam McCalvy. This might be the slowest news day ever.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while having it both ways.

If we're not hearing much from the Brewer front office this week, it's because they're in Arizona working on a plan for the offseason.

Here's proof that it's been a quiet week: The Brewers' Wives announced the release of their 2010 Pet Calendar, and it's one of today's top stories.

Keith Law chatted with fans again yesterday, and View From Bernie's Chalet has a roundup of all the Brewer-related notes. Today's topics include a terrible Ryan Braun trade proposal and Rickie Weeks.

The full article is Insider-only, but Jason Gray of ESPN has a look at Jonathan Lucroy, and the sudden shift that has led to him being considered the organization's top catching prospect.

Elsewhere in the minors:

I don't remember if I've seen/mentioned this previously, but Baseball America's Minor League Transaction Report noted that the Brewers re-signed former first round pick Mike Jones as a minor league free agent. Jones reached AAA for the first time in 2009.
The Timber Rattlers are asking for your help to pick a first baseman for their 15th anniversary team. Follow the link for bios on the candidates, then jump over to the front page to vote.

Around baseball:

Blue Jays: Claimed pitcher Sean Henn off waivers from the Orioles and designated Michael Barrett for assignment.
Mariners: Outrighted first baseman Bryan LaHair, and pitchers Randy Messenger, Cesar Jimenez and Marwin Vega to AAA. Vega is the only one who won't become a minor league free agent.
Orioles: Declined their option for 2010 on Melvin Mora.
Pirates: Claimed left handed pitcher Justin Thomas off waivers from the Mariners.

Do you have software development and/or engineering skills and the desire to find a job where you can spend the day talking sports? SB Nation is hiring for a couple of positions.

Oh, and speaking of open positions, you have until the end of the day today to express interest in the Weekend Editor position here at BCB. I'm planning on making a decision tonight or tomorrow.

Happy birthday today to Manny Parra, who turns 27. Hopefully Rick Peterson turns out to be an early birthday present for him.

Elsewhere, happy birthday to:

Laynce Nix, who turns 29.
Former Brewer farmhand Marco Scutaro, who turns 34.
Dave Valle, who played in 16 games for the 1994 Brewers and turns 49.
And a posthumous happy birthday to longtime Milwaukee Brave Joe Adcock, who would have turned 82.

Drink up.