SB Nation - Ross Ohlendorf

Around the Yankee Universe: Money, money, money, money

Ed Valentine — Sun, 29 Nov 2009 16:12:32 -0000

When you are talking about the New York Yankees, we know that the discussion always comes back to the money that the Yankees make. and, of course, that they spend.

I have learned to live with it. The Yankees have unmatched resources, and I am thrilled that they choose to use them in an effort to win. The Steinbrenners have never simply looked at the Yankees as a business to profit from.

That is why I hate revenue sharing, though it is something I have to live with. and, as a Yankee fan I find cries about the need for a salary cap to be little more than whining from fans of teams who have badly run organizations, or owners who don't care about winning.

With that as background, I was fascinated by a recent article in the Biz of Baseball which shows that many teams around baseball are simply taking their revenue-sharing dollars from the Yankees, Red Sox and anyone else who has to pay and putting them in the bank.

This year, approx. $400 million will be distributed from high revenue making clubs such as the Yankees and Red Sox to those at the low end of the spectrum, such as the Marlins, Pirates, Rays, and Royals.

Revenue-sharing figures for each of the 30 clubs have not been leaked to the media since 2002-2003, and 2005 (see the complete set of figures), which saw revenue transfers of $169 million, $220 million, and $308.4 million respectively.

So, just over $190 million more in revenues will move between payors and payees this year compared to the last year that full figures were available in 2005, an increase of 22.9 percent.

Looking back at the figures from 2005, the Rays had the highest level of revenue-sharing funds come their way at $33 million. Since 2005, the revenue-sharing formula has become far more complex than in the prior CBA, using a system that looks at trailing years of revenues, and other factors. But, for discussion sake, if we look at the largest receiver of revenue-sharing funds over the life of the data we have (Expos for 2002-2003, and Rays in 2005), we could apply an approx. 3 percent increase from then to now. That would give the team receiving the most revenue-sharing in 2009 (likely, the Marlins), $42.9 million in revenue-sharing funds. So, if we were to add Stark’s central fund average, minus pension fund of $30 million, the idea that a club received between $70-$75 million in revenue-sharing and centralized funds is not out of the question.

With that, here's some Opening Day player payroll figures (minus bonuses, deferred payments and incentive clauses, or, money paid or received in trades or for players who have been released). to digest:

Marlins - $36,834,000

Pirates - $48,693,000

A's - $62,310,000

Royals - $70,519,333

Padres - $43,734,200

Nationals - $60,328,000

Rays - $63,313,034

This is why I hate revenue sharing, which is designed to increase competitive balance. The big-market teams make the money, and the small-market owners simply take it and line their pockets with it.

Simply put, that's not right.

Other Notes

Ode to Bob Sheppard: Both ESPN's Buster Olney and the blog Dugout Central have penned nice tributes to the now officially retired Voice of the Yankees.
Zell's Pinstripe Blog looks at former Yankee Ross Ohlendorf and his unconventional off-season.
Derek Jeter is apparently expected to be named Sportsman of the Year by Sports Illustrated. David Chalk will be proud.
Here is a list of the 2009 World Series artifacts on display in Cooperstown.
The son of former Yankee reliever Ron Davis looks like he could be headed to first base for the New York Mets.
The Chicago Tribune is wondering if American League MVP Joe Mauer will be resist the lure of Yankee dollars when he becomes a free agent after next season.
The Sporting News lists the teams that need Toronto ace Roy Halladay the most. The Yankees, as you might expect, are not on that list.

What About Depth?

Charlie — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 03:04:21 -0000

Sorry for the absence of updates the past few days; it can be hard to post when there isn't much news coming out.

Anyway, there was some interesting discussion of the BA top prospects here, and the basic take-away criticism (particularly from Mike Emeigh, a smart long-time Pirates fan and critic) is that the Pirates' farm system still isn't that strong yet. If you look only at the ten-player list BA published, I think that's true, but I don't think a list of ten players tells the whole story.

Frank Coonelly and Neal Huntington have been on the job about two years, and thus have had two drafts to improve what was essentially a barren system. They've also fixated pretty intensely on high school talent after the first round in those drafts, at least in the guys to whom they've paid big bonuses. Lots of them have considerable upside, but given their age, understandably haven't done enough to make it into the top ten yet. And so any evaluation of the Pirates' system that doesn't take guys like Robbie Grossman, Quinton Miller, Jarek Cunningham, Colton Cain and Trent Stevenson into account just isn't really getting it done.

Then there's the fact that the Pirates traded away most of their starting players, and only three players acquired in those trades (Jose Tabata, Tim Alderson and Gorkys Hernandez) fit into BA's top ten--and even then, including Hernandez was probably a stretch. The problem was that besides Jason Bay, the Pirates didn't have anyone particularly good to trade. The Pirates' return for Bay was mediocre, which hurt, but it was counterbalanced by the fact that they got a very good prospect (Tabata), a good starting pitcher (Ross Ohlendorf) and another interesting player (Dan McCutchen) for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte. That trade was, it turns out, a steal for the Pirates.

Beyond that, the Pirates' problem has been that teams are increasingly unwilling to trade genuinely excellent prospects. It's a hard enough sell to get two great prospects when you're trying to trade Cliff Lee. When you're trying to trade Jack Wilson, it's pretty much impossible. As a result, a lot of the players the Bucs got in trades fit into the #11-#30 bracket. This includes Jeff Locke (from the Nate McLouth deal), Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock (from Wilson and Ian Snell) and Josh Harrison (from John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny).

All of which is to say that the Pirates have done pretty well with the options available to them, and given the obstacles they've encountered in getting obvious impact talents, they've done well in building a farm system that's 30 deep, not just ten deep. And there's really nothing wrong with most of the guys they've acquired, either in the draft or in trades, and it wouldn't be at all surprising if several from among Grossman, Miller, Cunningham, Cain, Stevenson, Locke, Lorin, Adcock, Brooks Pounders, Victor Black and Justin Wilson broke out and joined the top ten next year.

The top ten still does look a bit thin right now. But I'm not sure how Huntington and Coonelly could have acquired a bunch of talent much faster. Getting more for Bay would have been great, as would signing Miguel Sano. And reasonable people can disagree about the Pirates' strategy in the first round of the 2009 draft. Overall, though, I think their plan and execution have been quite good. And I think that if Dave Littlefield had done his job and left some interesting guys in A-ball who'd just now be graduating into the top ten themselves, there wouldn't seem to be a problem. Huntington and Coonelly have been placed in the awkward position of having to acquire lots of those sorts of players themselves and then wait for them to develop.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 14:47:13 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

Randy Wolf is seeking a multi-year deal, just like he was last year.

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Some things to read while going extra casual.

Remember yesterday, when the Mug was late because I had so much to write about? Today's Mug is nothing like that. Adjust your schedules accordingly.

It sounds like Doug Melvin has been active at the GM meetings: Adam McCalvy noted that he's spoken to the agents for Randy Wolf and Doug Davis, and is expected to also speak to Scott Boras, who represents Jarrod Washburn. Al may have summed it up best:

If you have an arm and an agent, odds are Doug has talked to them at the GM meetings.

Arn Tellem, who represents Randy Wolf, told the Brewers his client is seeking a multi-year deal. The Brewers, in turn, told Tellem not to expect $5 million for Jason Kendall. Neither of those are really shocking developments: Wolf was also seeking a multi-year deal last offseason before the market evaporated and he was forced to settle for less, and Kendall hasn't been worth $5 million for several years now.

Meanwhile, FanHuddle wonders if the Brewers are building for 2011, not 2010, with the coming season being spent as development/evaluation time for players like Carlos Gomez, Alcides Escobar and Jonathan Lucroy.

Speaking of Gomez: Fire Doug Melvin has some fan fiction that might explain the decision to acquire him.

Today's "Around Baseball" segment has been reserved for senior citizens:

Mariners: Signed Ken Griffey Jr. (who turns 40 in November) to a one year deal for 2010. The deal is worth $2 million plus incentives.
Red Sox: Signed Tim Wakefield (who is 43) to a two year deal worth $5 million.

Looking for more info on the Arizona Fall League? John Sickels of Minor League Ball just returned from a trip out to the desert and is answering your questions today.

Meanwhile, there might be trouble brewing in Venezuela: the threat of violence and war is once again coming up in the country, and the Mets are considering calling home one of their top prospects in the Venezuelan Winter League. Meanwhile, Adam Heether still hasn't been seen in a game since November 1...

The Gold Gloves were announced yesterday, and I checked to see if any Brewers were honored, then tuned the rest out. Over at The Book Blog, Tangotiger has a press release on the irrelevance of the awards.

Looks like money is getting tight for the Dodger organization, trapped in the middle of the McCourt divorce. As Cute Sports noted, they recently cut the salary of 87-year-old amateur scout George Genovese to $8000. We've had discussions in the comments before about the "plight" of scouts and how it's not always as bad as it sounds, but this is ridiculous.

Speaking of financial issues, I mentioned yesterday that the Reds are looking to cut payroll this offseason and, as Tyler Hissey of Dugout Central notes, that makes last season's decision to trade for Scott Rolen even more puzzling. Rolen is due to make $11 million this season.

While most players are spending their offseason in various warm places getting ready for 2010, I still think Ross Ohlendorf is having the most interesting offseason of all, and now he's blogging about his work with the US Department of Agriculture (h/t Jen Langosch).

Need a Trenni fix this offseason? She's the guest in the most recent Phillies Nation Podcast.

On this day in 2007, Ryan Braun was named the NL Rookie of the Year. Braun has posted a .937 OPS in his first three major league seasons: Among players with at least 1500 PAs as a Brewer only Braun, Prince Fielder (.931) and Richie Sexson (.902) are over .900.

I couldn't find any Brewer birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a posthumous happy birthday today to Moonlight Graham of "Field of Dreams" fame, who would have turned 132.

Drink up.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 14:46:19 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Keith Law says the Brewers spent too much on Trevor Hoffman.

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Some things to read while the tables are turned.

View From Bernie's Chalet has the transcript of a recent chat with Keith Law over at ESPN where he touched on several Brewer-related topics, but the most notable was probably Trevor Hoffman. He thinks the Brewers made a mistake bringing Hoffman back at the price they're paying, and that it will handicap their efforts to improve the team elsewhere.

Admittedly, $8 million is a lot to pay a reliever, but it's possible there's a perception benefit from having an elite closer. When the Brewers announced the Hoffman signing, Doug Melvin suggested free agent pitchers may be more likely to sign with a club with an established closer. I have no idea if it's true, but I suppose it's possible. And if Hoffman pitches a full, effective season as a Brewer and notches his 600th save, it's possible he'll pay for himself in publicity and marketing.

Elsewhere on the pitching front, rumors continue to swirl around the possibility that the Brewers could have interest in Mark Mulder. Mulder probably can't be depended upon for significant innings, but bringing a pitcher of his caliber into the fold on a cheap deal to see what he can do is almost always a good idea.

Mulder, of course, pitched under Rick Peterson in Oakland. Mets Merized recently conducted an interview with Peterson, and has audio clips of some of Peterson's thoughts on developing prospects and pitch counts. (h/t Rob Neyer)

Although unlikely, it's still possible Peterson could spend 2010 helping Ben Sheets return to form. Sheets, who had his high school number retired this weekend, is throwing off flat ground and expects to pitch in the majors next season. Jorge Says No! wonders what he'll get on the open market.

If Jeff Suppan was on the market this offseason, he likely wouldn't command much at all. Suppan was the winner of Brew City Sports' Hendy Award, which will look great on his mantle next to a photocopy of the $12.5 million paycheck he'll take home next season.

Hopefully this will be the only career parallel between Suppan and Ryan Braun: Braun is opening a restaurant in Lake Geneva. Braun is also giving away autographed baseballs to the first 100 fans to spend at least $150 on Remetee clothing at Solis in Las Vegas. If you stop by in January, there might still be some left.

We won't know the actual results until sometime after the World Series, but Baseball Digest Daily had Prince Fielder third in their balloting for NL MVP, and Braun fifth.

The JS has a note on Jonathan Lucroy's early performance in the AFL, which has been pretty impressive. He's only racked up 19 at bats, though, so it's probably a little early to get too excited. Tom H. also mentions "poor starts" from both Lorenzo Cain and Taylor Green. Both are hitting under .250 but have OBPs of .364 and .400, respectively (in 50 combined ABs). We have more on all three prospects and the rest of the Brewer winter leaguers in today's Fall/Winter League Update.

Around baseball:

Cubs: Removed utilityman Bobby Scales from their 40-man roster.
Indians: Hired Manny Acta as their new manager.
Mets: Removed catcher Robinson Cancel, shortstops Wilson Valdez and Argenis Reyes and pitcher Carlos Muniz from their 40-man roster.
Padres: Are expected to name former Red Sox Assistant GM Jed Hoyer as their new GM.

After two searches and interviews involving over a dozen candidates, the Indians and Astros both settled on Acta as the best candidate to manage their teams next season. The Indians, however, were willing to offer a three-year deal with an option for a fourth, and the Astros were only willing to offer two years. Houston is reportedly considering Red Sox bench coach Brad Mills and former Astros and Brewers manager Phil Garner.

So, the World Series matchup is set. I guess I'll be rooting for the Phillies out of sheer anti-Yankee bias and some form of vague NL pride. Rob Neyer notes that it'd be nice if the games started earlier, so they won't drag on past midnight, but that seems unlikely. Meanwhile, the new Yankee Stadium didn't even make it through its first season without some structural concerns: cracks in pedestrian ramps have already started to appear. The concrete was poured by a local firm that had previously been banned from doing city work because of suspected ties to organized crime.

The ALCS wasn't actually decided until late last night, but apparently the result was already known, as MLB.com started selling AL Champion Yankees gear well before the final out was recorded. This has drawn a lot of backlash but maybe we're looking at it the wrong way: Maybe MLB should start selling World Series gear for every team in Spring Training.

The Florida Winter Baseball League opens play this week with teams in four cities, composed mainly of low-level minor leaguers. I haven't checked the rosters for Brewers yet, but a successful, competitive winter league based in Florida could be a huge development for American minor leaguers who want to play winter ball but either don't speak Spanish or simply don't want to spend the winter in Latin America.

If you'd like to read more about life in the Arizona Fall League but your attention span is really short, then you're the perfect candidate to follow Scottsdale Scorpions Clubhouse Manager Chad Chiffin on Twitter.

While some minor leaguers head off to winter ball, one major leaguer will spend the offseason in Washington: Pirates pitcher Ross Ohlendorf is spending the offseason on an internship with the Department of Agriculture.

Last week I mentioned the continuing debate on John Lannan, who has posted effective ERAs for two seasons without many of the peripheral stats one would expect from a successful pitcher. Nick Steiner of The Hardball Times has Part 2 of his look at Lannan, looking primarily at pitch sequencing. Steiner concludes that luck is the most likely option.

I'm going to be late for Gorman's vet appointment if I don't wrap this up asap, so here's what I have left:

Minor leaguer Shawn Haviland on the importance of throwing two of the first three pitches for strikes.
Recondite Baseball on hitters who hit .300 but had short careers anyway.

Happy birthday today to Rafael Novoa, who pitched 56 innings for the 1993 Brewers and turns 42 today, and to Mark Sweeney, who appeared in 119 games for the 2000-2001 Brewers and turns 40.

Also, a posthumous happy birthday to Gus Polidor, who would have turned 48 today.

That's all I've got for you today, unless you want to see a Jose Valentin autograph or win one from Miguel Tejada.

And if you'd like to win something autographed by Seth McClung, don't forget to enter the Bring Back Seth McClung contest.

Drink up.

Ross Ohlendorf Participating in Department of Agriculture Internship

Charlie — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 15:26:50 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

5 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Ross Ohlendorf works against the Colorado Rockies in the first inning of a baseball game on Friday, June 19, 2009, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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If you haven't heard what Ross Ohlendorf is up to this offseason, well, wow:

One week after the season ended, Ohlendorf began an eight-week internship with the Department of Agriculture in Washington, D.C. It's a highly unusual endeavor for a professional baseball player, but to those who know Ohlendorf well, his plans to conduct research in conjunction with the National Animal Identification System comes as no surprise...

How Ohlendorf ended up in D.C. is an interesting story in itself. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture [and former fringe presidential candidate] Tom Vilsack grew up in Pittsburgh as a Pirates fan. He was invited to PNC Park this summer to throw out the ceremonial first pitch, which, fittingly, was caught by Ohlendorf, who asked to receive the pitch once he learned that it was Vilsack who was taking the mound.

Ohlendorf talked to Vilsack briefly that day and later contacted him again to ask if he could be put to work this fall...

Ohlendorf will work 20 hours each week, giving him plenty of time to work on his conditioning.

-P- Stephen Strasburg was rocked in his second pro start in Arizona. Among Pirates prospects playing there, Jose Tabata, Donald Veal, Daniel Moskos and Anthony Watson have all played well, while Chase D'Arnaud and Brian Friday have struggled so far. None of them have played more than a handful of games.

Fantasy Baseball: FIP Losers in 2010?

raygu — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 13:15:10 -0000

by Jack Dempsey - AP

Is J.A. Happ a one year wonder?

View full size photo »

Yesterday I posted an article discussing the pitchers with the best FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, which aims to give fantasy/roto owners a clearer picture of how well, or not so well, a pitcher performed in 2009.

Today I give you the pitchers whose FIP was higher than their ERA in 2009, who could see their ERA's rise in 2010:

6.45

3.04

2.13

1.08

0.241

1.23

0.270

85.20%

2.93

4.33

-1.40

Kevin Millwood

5.57

3.22

1.73

1.18

0.258

1.34

0.279

78.60%

3.67

4.80

-1.13

Jair Jurrjens

6.36

3.14

2.03

0.63

0.235

1.21

0.273

79.40%

2.60

3.68

-1.08

Matt Cain

7.07

3.02

2.34

0.91

0.231

1.18

0.268

81.60%

2.89

3.89

-0.99

Bronson Arroyo

5.19

2.66

1.95

1.27

0.256

1.27

0.270

76.50%

3.84

4.78

-0.94

Randy Wells

5.66

2.5

2.26

0.76

0.261

1.28

0.294

76.00%

3.05

3.88

-0.83

John Danks

6.69

3.28

2.04

1.26

0.246

1.28

0.273

77.70%

3.77

4.59

-0.82

Rick Porcello

4.69

2.74

1.71

1.21

0.268

1.34

0.281

75.50%

3.96

4.77

-0.82

John Lannan

3.88

2.97

1.31

0.96

0.265

1.35

0.276

72.70%

3.88

4.70

-0.81

Ross Ohlendorf

5.55

2.7

2.06

1.27

0.249

1.23

0.265

76.30%

3.92

4.72

-0.80

Jarrod Washburn

5.11

2.51

2.04

1.18

0.244

1.19

0.257

75.40%

3.78

4.58

-0.80

Randy Wolf

6.72

2.44

2.76

1.01

0.227

1.10

0.257

77.30%

3.23

3.96

-0.72

Doug Davis

6.46

4.56

1.42

1.11

0.261

1.50

0.294

76.00%

4.12

4.84

-0.72

Trevor Cahill

4.53

3.63

1.25

1.36

0.269

1.44

0.276

72.60%

4.63

5.33

-0.70

Edwin Jackson

6.77

2.94

2.3

1.14

0.249

1.26

0.281

76.70%

3.62

4.28

-0.67

Johan Santana

7.88

2.48

3.17

1.08

0.249

1.21

0.296

78.00%

3.13

3.79

-0.66

Mark Buehrle

4.43

1.9

2.33

1.14

0.27

1.25

0.282

74.70%

3.84

4.46

-0.62

Felix Hernandez

8.18

2.68

3.06

0.57

0.229

1.14

0.289

76.70%

2.49

3.09

-0.60

Joe Saunders

4.89

3.1

1.58

1.4

0.278

1.43

0.290

73.50%

4.60

5.17

-0.57

Ted Lilly

7.68

1.83

4.19

1.12

0.232

1.06

0.270

77.80%

3.10

3.65

-0.55

The last column in this chart gives you the difference between the pitcher's ERA and FIP for 2009. As you can see, the Phillies J.A. Happ may have benefitted from an extreme LOB% of 85% this year. Looking at his peripherals, he gives up more than a HR/9 and his K/BB% is just over 2, which is good, but not great.

The Giants Matt Cain is another pitcher whose LOB% was over 80%, which is above AVG, so we can expect his ERA to rise in 2010. Cain benefitted from a reduced GB% and LD% in 2009, but his HR/FB% was the highest in his career. Something to watch in 2010.

The Braves Jair Jurrjens LOB% approached 80% as well, which is the highest of his young career so far. His 2009 FIP of 3.68 is exactly what his ERA was in 2008, so I would expect his ERA to rise in 2010.

A couple big name pitchers on this list to watch out for are the Mariners Felix Hernandez and the Mets Johan Santana.

Poll

Are you buying JA Happ's rookie season in 2009?

Yes, he pitches for the best team in the NL, and should give you double digit wins.

26 votes

No, his peripherals are ok at best.

40 votes

66 votes | Poll has closed

It's The 47th Anniversary Of... Cubs vs. Pirates Doubleheader Preview, Wednesday 9/30, 1:05 & 7:05 CT

Al — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 16:30:18 -0000

More photos » by Charles Rex Arbogast - AP

Write your own caption.

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A 47th anniversary? Of what? What's that all about?

This all started with an email exchange on a SABR mailing list to which I subscribe. (Yes, I got permission from both men to post their email here.) Josh Heit asked the list over this past weekend:

On Monday, the Mets and Nationals begin a series and the teams will have at least a combined 191 losses (Mets 89 going into Sunday, Nationals 102). Is this is a record? I have checked some obvious choices such as the 2003 Tigers and did not find a series that beat 191, although I was not working off of a comprehensive list.

To which John Pastier wrote the following definitive reply:

As a 1962 Mets fan, I am deeply shocked that Josh does not consider The Amazin's to be an obvious choice to be checked for this honor. This club was to losing what Rickey Henderson was to stealing or walking, what Barry Bonds was to splash hits, what Ichiro is to singles, what the Rockies are to thin air, what Joe Morgan is to baseball analysis, and what Pete Rose was to making outs. They are the undisputed gold standard of losing, and holding up a puny 191 combined losses before this juggernaut of defeat is like asking whether Babe Ruth ever hit more than 40 home runs.

The Mets and the Cubs played each other on Sept. 30, 1962, and at the close of business, they had combined for 223 losses, 120 of them by the Metropolitans. And they did this even though they were not allowed to complete their full schedule, falling two decisions short of the requisite 162.

I hope Pastier was being facetious about Joe Morgan (either that, or in an oblique way calling him a "loser"). Anyway, yes, the Sept. 30, 1962 game (which the Cubs won 5-3), holds the record for the game in which the two clubs began the day with the most combined losses (222; the Mets began the game with 119 defeats and the Cubs 103, which is the franchise record, tied in 1966). Another interesting note about that season-ending series at Wrigley Field 47 years ago: the first game of that series, a Friday afternoon game on September 28 also won by the Cubs 3-2, drew a paid "crowd" of 595 people. That number of people could fit comfortably in a couple of bleacher sections. It was one of nine games between 1959 and 1966 that drew paid attendance of less than 1000. How times change.

There will be a few more people than that in the seats during today's first game, a makeup of the postponement from August 16, but likely fewer than the estimated 15,000 who showed up last night.

Starting rotation note: Lou announced during last night's postgame news conference that Jeff Samardzija will start tomorrow vs. the Pirates, and Tom Gorzelanny on Friday vs. the Diamondbacks. (It was originally the other way around.)

Game One Starting Pitchers


Ted Lilly Cubs	vs.	Charlie Morton Pirates

12-8	W-L	4-9
3.02	ERA	5.01
143	SO	54
34	BB	37
22	HR	7
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Ted Lilly	12-8	26	26	0	0	0	0	170.0	146	62	57	22	34	143	3.02	1.06

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Charlie Morton	4-9	17	17	0	0	0	0	88.0	98	49	49	7	37	54	5.01	1.53

Game Two Starting Pitchers


Carlos Zambrano Cubs	vs.	Jeff Karstens Pirates

9-6	W-L	3-5
3.69	ERA	5.45
146	SO	49
74	BB	44
10	HR	12
vs. Pit	--	vs. Cubs

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Carlos Zambrano	9-6	34	27	1	1	0	0	163.1	149	74	67	10	74	146	3.69	1.37

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jeff Karstens	3-5	36	11	0	0	0	0	100.2	106	62	61	12	44	49	5.45	1.49

I'm going to try to say nice things about the Pirates' starters today, Charlie Morton and Jeff Karstens, but geez, those records are pretty bad. Neither one strikes out many hitters, and both ERA's are north of 5.00. The last time Charlie Morton faced the Cubs, they scored ten earned runs off him in one-plus innings on August 14 at Wrigley Field before John Russell took pity on him and got him out of the game. Jeff Karstens had one shining moment as a Pirate, in the first game he threw for them after being acquired from the Yankees. On August 1, 2008, he threw six shutout innings against the Cubs at Wrigley Field. His next two outings against the Cubs, not so much -- five earned runs in three innings in a start on August 25, 2008 and two earned runs in two innings in relief on September 9 of this year.

Ted Lilly will be trying to lower his ERA below 3.00 and finish the year with a sub-three ERA for the first time in his major league career -- a worthy goal. A win today would also be his 45th as a Cub, giving him an average of 15 wins a year over the first three years of his four-year deal, one of Jim Hendry's best free-agent signings. Ted is 1-1 vs. the Pirates this year with a 2.77 ERA and he threw better in the June 30 loss, when the Cubs got shut out by Ross Ohlendorf (who the Cubs won't face in this series), than in the September 9 victory at PNC Park. Ted is also 8-1, 1.60 in 12 starts at Wrigley Field this year and 8-3, 2.55 in 14 starts in day games.

Carlos Zambrano is 1-0, 2.19 in two starts vs. the Pirates this year; he will be trying to follow up his shutout of the Giants with another strong performance to end the year on an up note, and also to get his 10th win. That would make seven straight years in double figures for Z and it would be his 106th career victory. Of the current Pirates, no one has more than 14 career AB against Z, and only Brandon Moss has homered off him.

Today's first game is on WGN and FSN Pittsburgh. Today's second game is on CSN Chicago Plus (CLTV in Chicago, "check local listings" elsewhere). For other games today see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday (game one)

MLB.com Gameday (game two)

Baseball-reference.com game preview (game one)

Baseball-reference.com game preview (game two)

SB Nation game preview (game one)

SB Nation game preview (game two)

Please visit our SB Nation Pirates site Bucs Dugout. They seem a little lonely over there.

There won't be a separate game preview thread for the second game; consider this a preview for both games (feel free to revisit this thread before the night game begins). Overflow comment threads will post today for game one at 2:15 and 3:15 pm CDT. The first pitch thread will post for game two at 7 pm CDT and overflows at 8:15 and 9:15 pm CDT.

Discuss amongst yourselves.

Could the Pirates Lose 110 Games in 2010?

Charlie — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 21:50:23 -0000

More photos » by Alan Diaz - AP

A thought experiment: Brandon Moss may be bad, but if he starts the season hitting .100, is he really a .100 hitter?

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That this post even needs to be written speaks volumes about where the Pirates are right now. But despite the Bucs' spectacular collapse since the trades, I think it's far too early to worry, as many of you have, about losing 110 games next year. It's true that the Pirates' play over the last month would put them on pace for far worse than a 110-loss season. But that doesn't mean a 110-loss season will actually happen. A 110-loss team would be among the worst teams in modern baseball history. In the last 40 years, only two teams, the 2003 Tigers and the 2004 Diamondbacks, have lost as many as 110 games in a season, which means that if the Pirates lost 110, they would have to be considered one of the worst teams in modern baseball history. I think there is plenty of evidence that shows that they are bad. I don't think there is nearly enough to show that they are historically bad.

The irony here is that, way back in 2007, I myself was pointing out that the 2010 Pirates were going to be spectacularly bad. I even suggested what some of you are now saying--that they could lose 110 games. Most of the core players on that 2007 team--Jason Bay, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jose Castillo, Xavier Nady, Salomon Torres--were scheduled to become free agents after 2009, and Jack Wilson had an expensive 2010 option. In addition, they had one of the worst general managers in the history of baseball at the helm and next to nothing in the farm system. That the Bucs would be quite awful in 2010 has been obvious for a long time now, and frankly Neal Huntington bears very little responsibility for it. In 2007, it looked like a perfect storm of a terrible big-league team, no prospects and inept management was brewing, and I think it was maybe only a little hyperbolic to write that a 110-loss campaign in 2010 was likely.

The reason I don't think it's likely now is that Huntington has taken enough steps to improve the 2010 situation that I think we can remove "historically bad" from the set of likely possibilities for now.

I realize that's a counterintuitive conclusion, since clearly Huntington's eyes are set at a point well beyond 2010 and the Bucs aren't playing very well right now. But without Huntington there would be no Ross Ohlendorf or Daniel McCutchen, who were acquired in the Nady deal. There would be no Charlie Morton, since the Pirates under Littlefield would not allow Nate McLouth to start and therefore to acquire value on the trade market. It's quite possible Littlefield would have started Nyjer Morgan in 2009, but back in mid-2007 his breakout would have been extremely hard to foresee (since Morgan hadn't even made his major league debut at that point), and trading him for Lastings Milledge and Joel Hanrahan would have been even harder to foresee. Without Huntington the Pirates probably still would have had Ian Snell, but they wouldn't have Ronny Cedeno or Jeff Clement. Those guys--Ohlendorf, Morton, Milledge, Hanrahan, Cedeno, Clement--are all major league players. Maybe not great ones, in some cases, but certainly useful ones, and one characteristic of 110-loss teams is that they have very few useful players.

Also, a number of decent prospects--Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln, Chase D'Arnaud, Rudy Owens, Ron Uviedo, Jeff Locke, Tim Alderson--will be either in the high minors or on the verge of arriving there. That may sound like a trivial point, but actually it isn't. 110-loss seasons can be avoided simply by having a storehouse of players who might be able to fill in competently.

Now, maybe Littlefield would have traded Bay and some of the other core players, too. I doubted that at the time, though, because doing so would have meant admitting that he basically had nothing after five or six years on the job, and because he was basically acting like 2010 did not exist, as if the Pirates would be contracted before the season started. That was my reason for thinking 110 losses was possible then. Now it appears that Huntington is at least aware that the Pirates will be playing baseball next season. That might not mean much, but it's something.

The most critical point here, though, is that losing 110 games is spectacularly difficult to do. It requires either extreme negligence or a combination of negligence and bad luck. Merely being a very poor team, which I agree the Pirates probably will be, simply does not get the job done. Let's take the two teams that lost 110, for example.

The 2004 Diamondbacks reached 110 losses through both negligence and luck. Not only did they have the worst offense in the league--an outcome that is surely also a possibility for the 2010 Pirates--but they really had no starting rotation after Randy Johnson (who was brilliant) and Brandon Webb. The five pitchers who had the most starts for them were Casey Fossum, Steve Sparks, Casey Daigle, Edgar Gonzalez, and Lance Cormier, and all of those guys had ERAs over six. Arizona finished 27th in the majors in ERA, and one of the three teams that fared worse was the Rockies. And the Diamondbacks still only got to 110 through bad luck--their Pythagorean record was "only" 54-108.

The 2010 Bucs really don't even belong in the same conversation with the '03 Tigers, who lost 119 games. The Tigers only had one pitcher throw more than 20 innings with an ERA below 4.50; the '09 Pirates, by comparison, have seven pitchers currently in their organization who have done that this year. The Tigers basically had one good hitter (Dmitri Young), and the lower part of their lineup and their bench were filled with guys (Brandon Inge, Warren Morris, Ramon Santiago, Shane Halter, Gene Kingsale, Omar Infante, Matt Walbeck, Andres Torres) who just didn't belong in the majors. It wasn't a case of a team merely being bad; it was a case of a team simply not taking the steps necessary to ensure that there was a real team on the field.

When I say that the Pirates are unlikely to lose 110 games next year, I'm not paying the Pirates a compliment. I'm just saying these 110-loss prognostications are the result of either over-the-top despair about the Bucs' recent play, or a misunderstanding about how incredibly hard it actually is to lose 110.

Another possibility is that people think you can extrapolate the Bucs' play the last couple months over the course of an entire season. You can't. By way of example, let's look at Brandon Moss. Let's say he's the Bucs' fourth outfielder next year and he starts the season 6-for-60, for a batting average of .100.

Now, we would be perfectly justified to say that Moss is terrible. We already would have been thinking that Moss is pretty terrible, given the way he hit in 2009. And then he went and started 2010 6-for-60. Ugh! Terrible.

But would be justified to say that he will continue to bat .100? Well, no. True, he already batted .100 in his first 60 at bats, but hitting .100 over the long haul is especially hard to do. First of all, we have to consider that Brandon Moss has, at various points, done things that suggest he can be much better than a .100 hitter. For example, in 2009 he's batting .241. Not very good, but way better than .100. Also, he made his way through the minors and got all the way to the big leagues, even briefly joining a good team, the Boston Red Sox. He has some skill, and players with some skill can usually hit better than .100. Even Mario Mendoza hit .215 for his career.

So we'd be justified to be annoyed at Moss' poor start. We'd also be justified to factor that poor start into our guesses about what he might do going forward. But it wouldn't make much sense to predict he'll be a .100 hitter.

Guessing the 2010 Bucs will lose 110 games is like that. Yes, they've been extremely bad since the trades. But they have three downright functional starting pitchers in Ohlendorf, Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, plus Morton, who easily could make his way into that category next year. They have Andrew McCutchen, who's a plain old good player. They have Garrett Jones who, while due for some serious regression next year, has probably staked a pretty reasonable claim that he's at least going to be useful. They have Ryan Doumit, who in 2008 was a force as an offensively-minded catcher. They have Milledge and Hanrahan, who have shown promise since arriving. They have guys like Ronny Cedeno, Andy LaRoche and Jason Jaramillo who, while they're not exactly inspiring, have shown they at least belong in the majors. There's also at least a reasonable chance that Pedro Alvarez is going to burst onto the scene at some point next season and go nuts.

I'm not saying that's much. It isn't. I'm saying it doesn't take much to avoid 110 losses, and that while anything's possible, I think the Pirates have what it takes. Don't take that as wild-eyed optimism, because again, it isn't. I'm only saying that I think the Pirates can avoid a complete disaster season, and the fact that they've actually been a disaster since the trades doesn't really change that.

Joe Kerrigan Unsure About 2010

Charlie — Fri, 18 Sep 2009 18:07:12 -0000

Pitching coach Joe Kerrigan is unsure whether he'll return in 2010. Ultimately, a team will sink or swim on its talent, but it really would be nice to have Kerrigan back. He has a great reputation, several pitchers have taken a step forward this year (Ross Ohlendorf especially), and it can't be good for the Pirates to cycle through pitching coaches the way they have the past few years. Some continuity would be nice.

Fantasy Baseball: NL ERA Leaders Since the All Star Break

raygu — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 13:15:09 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

3 months ago: St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright throws in the first inning against the Pittsburgh Pirates during a baseball game in Pittsburgh, Friday, Sept. 4, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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In roto and fantasy leagues, I find it helpful to look at how pitchers have performed in the second half of the year to see if strong seconf halves can carry over into the next season. Today I am looking at the NL ERA leaders since the All Star break, which really isn't the true second half, as teams play more games before the ASB than they do afterward.

Let's take a look:

Player	INN	GS	QS	CG	W	L	K	BBI	HA	ERA	WHIP	K/BB
Wainwright, Adam SP STL	82.7	12	11	1	9	2	65	15	75	1.85	1.09	4.33
Lincecum, Tim SP SF	79.7	11	9	1	4	3	95	25	56	2.26	1.02	3.80
Arroyo, Bronson SP CIN	85	12	11	1	4	4	52	21	74	2.33	1.12	2.48
Kershaw, Clayton SP LA	65.3	11	8	0	2	3	72	32	46	2.34	1.19	2.25
Harden, Rich SP CHC	64	11	7	0	4	2	85	28	39	2.39	1.05	3.04
Carpenter, Chris SP STL	89	12	10	2	9	1	68	19	80	2.43	1.11	3.58
Happ, J.A. SP PHI	69.7	10	8	2	5	4	47	22	59	2.45	1.16	2.14
Rodriguez, Wandy SP HOU	76	12	9	0	5	4	70	21	62	2.49	1.09	3.33
Lee, Cliff SP PHI	80	11	8	4	9	2	65	6	75	2.59	1.01	10.83
Jimenez, Ubaldo SP COL	79.7	11	11	0	7	1	66	27	57	2.6	1.05	2.44
Jurrjens, Jair SP ATL	71.7	11	9	0	4	3	55	22	64	2.64	1.20	2.50
Hanson, Tommy SP ATL	60.7	10	7	0	5	3	60	16	53	2.82	1.14	3.75
Wolf, Randy SP LA	75.3	11	10	0	6	3	60	16	58	2.87	0.98	3.75
Cain, Matt SP SF	79.3	11	7	1	3	3	56	22	63	2.95	1.07	2.55
Ohlendorf, Ross SP PIT	63	10	7	0	4	3	44	22	52	3	1.17	2.00
Vazquez, Javier SP ATL	78.3	11	7	1	7	2	80	17	65	3.1	1.05	4.71
Santana, Johan SP NYM	50.3	7	4	0	3	2	34	9	53	3.22	1.23	3.78
Pineiro, Joel SP STL	75.3	11	8	0	7	1	46	10	73	3.23	1.10	4.60
Hamels, Cole SP PHI	71	11	6	1	4	4	62	19	64	3.3	1.17	3.26
Zito, Barry SP SF	69.7	12	7	0	4	4	53	26	64	3.36	1.29	2.04

Note to self: trade for Bronson Arroyo come the ASB 2010. Wow. Who would have thought that Bronson Arroyo would have such a great second half in 2009. Arroyo is a notorious second half pitcher. He had a 5.97/3.47 first half/second half ERA split in 2008, and a 4.84/3.55 split in 2007.

The Braves Tommy Hanson shut out the Mets last night for 7 innings, which is not included in the stats above. Can Hanson be a top 10-15 starting pitcher in the NL in 2010? I think he can.

The Dodgers Randy Wolf has also pitched great in the second half this season. He is pitching better than his second half in Houston last season where he had a 4.66/3.77 first half/second half ERA split.

The Pirates Ross Ohlendorf is DEFINITELY not a name I expected to see on this list, so he is someone to keep your eye on going into 2010. He could be a late round sleeper.

Another name I did not expect to see is the Giants Barry Zito, who finally may earn the contract the Giants gave him a few years ago.