SB Nation - Adam Eaton

The Great General Manager Debate: NL Central Edition

davoag — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

The trade that made me lose faith in the Pirates suckitude...

Part of my reaction to the Aki Iwamura trade was realizing how surprisingly competent the Pirates front office has become. They picked up a cost-controlled player for a replaceable part and improved their infield defense in the process. How is that a bad thing?

The funny thing is, the Pirates have been bad for so long, and it's so easy to dismiss their hires as actually being good baseball people, I had forgotten what Pittsburgh was actually getting in Neil Huntington. Here's another post from FanGraphs about what this trade means for the Pirates executives and here's an interview with Dan Fox, their database guru. Basically, the Pirates have a guy that gets to play with computer simulations all day until he can accurately evaluate and forecast players. I can get that job how?

It also made me start thinking about all the general managers in the National League Central. Which ones was I most afraid of? Which ones were a joke? Were there any teams that were run competently from year to year?

The thing that surprised me when I did my research was not that Ed Wade is probably the weakest GM in the Central, it's that so many of them have changed in the past two seasons. Justice loves to harp on how the organizational chaos Houston has gone through is affecting the club in many ways. Still, to see that so many of Wade's peers have also changed jobs recently is refreshing.

It's also scary, especially when at least four of these guys are competent-to-really good. After the jump is a look at each GM. Feel free to share your thoughts on who worries you the most in the comments...

Chicago Cubs

GM Jim Hendry

Tenure: Since July, 2002 ( 7 1/2 seasons)

Notes: The longest tenured general manager also has the biggest payroll of any team in the division. What does he do with all that money? Waste it. As scary as the Cubs lineup and rotation can be, Hendry alone makes me feel good about the Astros chances against Chicago in the near future.

This was a man who overpaid for guys like LaTroy Hawkins and Ted Lilly (though, to be fair, Lilly was excellent). He also spent a ton of money for Alfonso Soriano to play center field, and then promptly bumped him to left. Then, he spent a ton of money to bring in notorious pot-stirrer Milton Bradley, adding to the dangerous clubhouse dynamic that Lou Piniella always brings.

Funny thing, though, 134 million can buy you a damned good team. Hendry may have made mistakes in the past, but has done a good job of at least correcting them. He admitted failure with Rich Hill, shipping him off to Baltimore. He did turn Ryan Dempster into an effective pitcher in his new role with the Cubs. Hendry also has a productive farm system, with guys like Carlos Marmol and Geovanny Soto picking up the team on the cheap.

Would Hendry be this good without all that money? Probably not. In his market, though, it's tough not to make a big splash each season and have the fans be happy. Of all the GMs, though, I'm least afraid of Hendry.

Cincinnati Reds

GM Walt Jocketty

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: The interesting thing about Jocketty is he went from a winning team to one that is continually frustrated by not being able to get over the hump. He also went to a team that walked away from a more progressive-thinking GM in former Twins assistant Wayne Krivsky for the more traditional Jocketty. Of course, Jocketty also followed Tony LaRussa from Oakland to St. Louis, so it's unclear how much of his philosophy is tied to LaRussa's.

The Reds haven't exactly been dramatic in making over the club, but Jocketty has shown a willingness to be aggressive with the team's prospects and not trade off valuable assets for overhyped players (I'm looking at you, Jim Bowden). Still, Jocketty hasn't shown the same level of success as at his previous two stops. It will take a little more time to see whether his player evaluation method transfers to the Reds scouting department. If Jocketty can hit a few home runs in the draft, the rest of his record in the Queen City will be moot.

Milwaukee Brewers

GM Doug Melvin

Tenure: Since September 2002 (7 seasons)

Notes: One of the two longest tenured GMs in the NL Central, Melvin has had an up-and-down career in Milwaukee. Yes, he did draft Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder. Yes, he did trade for CC Sabathia. But, what have the Brewers actually won? This team seems to consistenly play for second place, which isn't bad, but until they can get over the hump mentally, Melvin may not be viewed more positively.

All indications are that Melvin is a more traditional GM. The Brewers don't leap out at you as a very sabermetric-friendly team, but they do have a little bit of the Oakland A's philosophy for a small market. The Brewers under Melvin consistently make unpopular decisions with players to avoid locking them up to bad contracts that hurt the team. Instead, they'll buy out arbitration years for a player, insuring cost certainty and rewarding young guys before they may be overpaid. Exhibit one is Ryan Braun.

Certainly, the biggest deficiency with the club is starting pitching. Melvin has shown a knack for making big moves (CC), regardless of his position as a small market team. He's also done a good job of drafting by talent and not positional needs (Matt LaPorta, anyone?). The obvious plus side of this is Melvin can then trade for pitching with his talent surplus. It will be interesting to see if Melvin can keep the pipeline going for the Brewers and tinker around the edges enough to get a winner.

Pittsburgh Pirates

GM Neil Huntington

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: Here is the crux of my argument. The Pirates are without a doubt the worst-run franchise in the National League. For years, they have been incompetent, both in the draft, in trades and in fielding winning ball clubs. Who can forget Randall Simon viciously attacking that poor Bratwurst in Milwaukee? Just horrible. Still, Huntington has done a great job of reversing this trend. He correctly indentified assets that were expendible, seems to have valued his minor leaguers correctly and his only big misstep so far has been the Bay trade. The big deal with the Yankees netted the Buccos a solid starter in Ross Ohlendorff and a young outfielder in Jose Tabata (who hasn't panned out). The Bay deal saw an iffy Andy LaRoche, a reliever (Craig Hanson) and a fourth or fifth outfielder (Brandon Moss) traded for one of the best left fielders in baseball.

Of course, if the Pirates had let Bay walk after the season like the Red Sox have, they'd be roundly criticized. The organization seems to be headed in the right direction. Count me as still skeptical, though, even with present evidence to the contrary.

St. Louis Cardinals

GM John Mozeliak

Tenure: Since 2008 (2 seasons)

Notes: Mozeliak took over a team that didn't have much to work with outside of a couple big money players (Pujols, Rolen, Carpenter) and a ton of farm talent. He's tinkered around the edges well and leaned heavily on his manager and pitching coach's reputations to slot in marginal guys into productive roles. Mozeliak stuck by Colby Rasmus through early slumps and made a big-ticket acquisition of Matt Holliday.

There are conflicting reports about his style, but it seems like he appreciates what the stats can tell him about the game and uses it to some degree. Yet, his philosophy seems to be grating on the older school ideas of Tony LaRussa. Combine that with his cold-blooded trade of Dave Duncan's son, Chris, and he's done quite a bit to alienate two of the most important cogs to the Cardinals machine for the past decade. Not that I'm complaining.

There are both good and bad qualities here, but I don't think we can judge Mozeliak fairly until he's out from under LaRussa's considerable shadow (the man's a genius, after all).

Houston Astros

GM Ed Wade

Tenure: Since September 2007 (2 seasons)

Notes: So, the thing about Ed Wade is he can't trade. I said some nice things in the past about the job he did leading up to this past season, but after reviewing his track record in Philly, I have a suggestion. Ed Wade needs to hire some smart, baseball-savvy mind to be his trade manager. Like a salary-cap manager in football, this person would handle all the ramifications of trades (scouting players, balance, contracts, etc.) and give his best recommendation to Wade. Only then could the big man sign off.

If you think I exaggerate, look at his transactions. Here's a link to Baseball-Reference's transaction page starting in 1998. Wade took over in January of that year. In his entire Philly tenure, he made two good trades: Billy Wagner and Kenny Lofton. Every other trade he made was a bloodbath. Eric Milton? He gave up Nick Punto and Carlos Silva. Scott Rolen? He got Placido Polanco and that's it. He traded Curt Schilling for nothing. He traded away a young Adam Eaton for a declining Andy Ashby. He traded two young pitchers for two relievers and Ron Gant. Who thought this was a good idea? In fact, Wade's history is chock-full of trades for relievers. It's the position he enjoys tinkering with most on the team. Unfortunately, relievers are fungible, and trading for them wastes cheap assets.

Thus, why I had the idea of a trade manager. I'm sure someone like Paul DiPodesta or Kevin Towers wouldn't mind being the Astros full-time trade scout, right? Either one would be imminently more qualified than Wade to make these kinds of decisions. And yes, I realize that Wade has made some decent trades with the Astros. Sticking to the numbers, though? That streak may not last forever.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:12:16 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

Ken Macha argues a call with third base umpire Larry Vanover during the first inning Wednesday. A case can be made that neither man should hold their present job next season.

View full size photo »

Some things to read while the sausages run the Preakness.

The Brewers are (mercifully?) off today, giving us a day to ponder Ken Macha's future. Batting Corey Patterson in the leadoff spot was the last straw for Brewers Daily, and Keep Turning Up the Heat doesn't understand his decision-making process with Mat Gamel. I'm not quite ready to call for Macha's head...but right now I wouldn't be disappointed if he were let go.

Keith Law has spent the last three days at Miller Park, and was disappointed by Macha's decision to use Gamel as a pinch hitter, then remove him before he actually got to bat. He also had some thoughts on Jason Kendall, Corey Patterson, and several interesting musical selections.

This probably wasn't the best week to watch a Brewer homestand, as the Brewers were dominated by Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright once again. With Wainwright's performance yesterday, the Brewers scored just one run in 39.1 innings pitched by Wainwright and Carpenter at Miller Park this season.

Brewer pitchers have actually only allowed 22 runs (slightly more than 3 per game) over the last seven games, but the bats have been shut down, and almost any bats could be shut down by the pitchers the Brewers have faced recently. Take a look back at the last nine days' opponents:

Joel Pineiro (14-9, 3.28)
Chris Carpenter (16-3, 2.16)
John Smoltz (1-1, 3.27 in the NL)
Barry Zito (9-12, 3.99)
Matt Cain (13-4, 2.51)
Jonathan Sanchez (6-11, 4.03)
Carpenter again
Smoltz again
Adam Wainwright (18-7, 2.59)

The Brewers have faced four starting pitchers with an ERA under 2.60 and just one with an ERA over 4.00 in the last nine games. It's probably not surprising they only won two of them.

With Derek Jeter tying Lou Gehrig for the Yankees' franchise lead in career hits, Baseball Digest Daily has a look at each franchise's active hits leader. Prince Fielder leads all current Brewers with 649, good for 21st most all time. If he picks up 19 more hits in 2009, he'll pass Dave May, Ted Simmons and Bill Hall for 18th place.

In the minors:

The Pioneer League season continues through the end of the week, and in what might be his final rookie league start, Eric Arnett pitched his longest professional outing yesterday, allowing two earned runs in 5.2 innings. He'll likely start 2009 in Wisconsin, but could feasibly be fast-tracked to Brevard County if he gets off to a good start.
Speaking of Wisconsin, Brock Kjeldgaard wrote himself into the Timber Rattler record books this season by striking out 172 times, most in team history. He also finished in the all-time top ten in games, home runs, RBI, total bases and walks. Kjeldgaard set a Pioneer League record by striking out 113 times for Helena last season.

The Brewers dropped two spots to 20th in MLB FanHouse's Power Rankings.

Around baseball:

Giants: Designated reliever Osiris Matos for assignment.
Phillies: Released Rodrigo Lopez.
Rockies: Designated Adam Eaton for assignment.

Joe Posnanski stumbled across a pretty fascinating stat this week: David DeJesus, who leads the Royals in walks, would be ninth on the Dodgers. A little plate discipline goes a long way.

A little water damage goes a long way, too. Less than one year after completing construction, the Mets are already battling water damage in suites at Citi Field, along with a host of other constructional and structural issues. Some franchises stretch their curses out over decades: The Mets are getting it all in 2009.

On this day in 1973, Jim Colborn pitched a complete game and led the Brewers to a 6-5 victory over the Tigers. It was the Brewers' 70th win, the first time in the franchise's five year history they'd reached thay mark. They went 4-15 the rest of the way to finish at 74-88.

I don't have any birthdays today, unless it's your birthday: In that case, happy birthday to you.

Oh, and the next time you're trying to take a family photo, you may want to check the background for donkeys.

Drink up.

Rockies Add Four Players to the Roster for Stretch Run

Jabberwocky — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 00:20:24 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Chacin is back for the stretch run.

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As Inside the Rockies' Steve Foster reports, the Colorado Rockies have called up four players from AAA Colorado Springs, whose season ended after their playoff aspirations were dashed yesterday.

Receiving the call to the Rockies are two pitchers (Jhoulys Chacin and Matt Belisle) and two hitters (Matt Murton and Mike McCoy). All of the players except for McCoy have played for the Rockies this season.

To make room for Belisle and McCoy (Murton and Chacin were already on the 40 man roster), the Rockies designated Adam Eaton for assignment and placed Chris Nelson on the 60 day DL.

These moves provide much needed depth for the stretch run to the Rockies, who have suffered a recent rash of injuries to key players.

Speaking of that, here's an injury update by the AP on Troy Tulowitzki and Ian Stewart.

Sunday Pebble Report: Sky Sox relinquish first place, McKenry hits walk-off home run, more

theoldgrizzlybear — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 13:00:47 -0000

Tacoma 6, Colorado Springs 4
Adam Eaton allowed four runs on six hits and three walks in six innings, and Scott Munter failed to minimize the damage in just under two innings of work and as a result, the Sky Sox fell to Tacoma and also fell into a tie with the Rainiers for first place in the Pacific Coast League's Pacific North division. Eaton struck out six batters in the game, but allowed a big two run homer in a rough first inning, making things tough on himself. Dan Ortmeier had three hits for the Springs in the losing effort.

Tulsa 4, NW Arkansas 3
Michael McKenry hit a walk-off three run home run for the Drillers, who struggled all day offensively and were trailing 3-1 heading into the bottom of the ninth despite good pitching from the starter and bullpen. Andy Graham lasted five innings and was pretty solid, allowing two runs on six hits and striking out six batters. Shane Lindsay was terrific out of the pen, striking out three in two innings. Al Alburquerque followed Lindsay's success with some of his own, as he struck out a batter in a scoreless eighth. Matt Reynolds allowed a home run in the top of the ninth, but recovered to retire the Naturals without any further damage and picked up the win.

High Desert 9, Modesto 8
The Nuts received multi-hit games from Charlie Blackmon, Maikol Gonzalez, and Jeff Cunningham, and Cunningham and Scott Beerer each went yard but none of that was enough to earn Modesto a victory. Kenneth Durst got roughed up a bit, allowing six runs on eight hits and four walks in six innings, and the bullpen was unable to hold a slim lead.

Greenville 9, Asheville 1
The Tourists managed only four hits, one of which was a solo home run by David Christensen. Meanwhile, Greenville had nine hits and had two guys with a multi-hit game. Jonnathan Aristil had another head-scratching outing, as he struck out eight batters in just four innings, but allowed five runs on four hits and a walk. He also allowed two long balls, which produced four of the runs. The good news from this one? Rex Brothers struck out the side in the bottom of the eighth inning.

Tri-City 3, Boise 2
The Dust Devils scored all three of their runs via the long ball, as Tim Wheeler connected on a solo shot in the first inning, and three batters later Kevin Clark hit a two-run blast to put Tri-City up 3-0. Boise tacked on two more against starter Rob Scahill, who lasted five innings and gave up two runs on five hits and struck out six, but Scahill was able to stay out of trouble. The bullpen pitched four scoreless innings, including Aaron Weatherford's two-inning, four-strikeout effort.

Casper 4, Idaho Falls 3 (Game 1)
Ricardo Ferrer threw four innings of baseball and gave up two runs on seven hits. He struck out six. Avery Barnes had a couple of hits and a run scored for the Ghosts. Nolan Arenado went 0-for-2 with two walks.

Idaho Falls 2, Casper 0 (Game 2)
The Ghosts were held to just three hits in the second game of the doubleheader, and one of them was by the suddenly-hot Avery Barnes. Juan Gonzalez struck out seven batters in four innings, but also walked three and gave up four hits. Ricky Testa struck out three batters in two innings, as well.

Freaking Out About Division Rivals

Grant — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 18:43:38 -0000

In 2001, the Giants didn't make the playoffs for a lot of reasons. The starting pitching was inconsistent, there was a revolving black hole at third base, and Barry Bonds was only on base 52% of the time. The team won 90 games, but it was a bitter finish. And I spent the entire season worrying about the Padres.

The Padres didn't even finish above .500, but their organizational depth chart woke me up at night, and gave me emotional wedgies during the day. The '27 Yankees had nothing on what was to be the 2004 Padres:

C - Ben Davis (Power-hitting backstop for the next decade!)
1B - Tagg Bozied (Good gravy, what power!)
2B - Jake Gautreau (Newly drafted middle infield monster!)
SS - D'Angelo Jimenez (Former Yankees top prospect!)
3B - Sean Burroughs (Ten-time batting champion! Maybe!)
LF - Bubba Trammell (They should lock him up long term!)
CF - Mark Kotsay (As long as he stays healthy!)
RF - Xavier Nady (Dude's name starts with an X! An X!

The young pitching was similarly terrifying, with neo-Maddux Brian Lawrence, Wascar Serrano, OBP-master Adam Eaton, and some goof named Jake Peavy. I remember thinking, man, if only 50% of the young players develop, the Padres will be a dynasty. And all that talent would have been capably managed by strategic mastermind Bruce Bochy. The only saving grace was that the Giants weren't in the AL West, where teams would have to deal with a Kotchman/Kendrick/Wood/McPherson infield starting every All-Star Game until 2015.

My point is this: Sometimes prospects don't pan out. Thank you for your time. You can PayPal mccoveychronicles@gmail.com if you feel obligated.

Wait! I had another point. The reason for this trip down early-decade Memory Lane is that I didn't learn. I kept a very detailed Excel spreadsheet of how many eggs other teams had, and I was surprised when the omelet would fit in my shirt pocket.

Years later, the Diamondbacks started amassing talent like there was a shortage coming. Every position had five-tool goofs who were also translating the tools into results. An outfield of Chris Young, Carlos Quentin, and Justin Upton? An infield with Chad Tracy and Conor Jackson at the corners? A couple of offensively capable catchers to rotate in and of the lineup? They had so many good young players, they could afford to send entire minor league affiliates to the A's for Dan Haren. The worst part: They were already good, winning the division in 2007. This decade was going to be ugly.

While I was soiling myself thinking about Justin Upton and Chris Young combining for 1,000 steals and home runs over their careers, the Dodgers were lactating impact players. Even worse, the Rockies were building one of the best offenses in the league exclusively with homegrown talent. Most nights, the Rockies are able to start eight homegrown players. Eight! To find eight Giants worth starting over the past thirty years, you'd probably have to put Jack Clark at shortstop.

The Diamondbacks still have a lot of young talent; it isn't time to relegate them to the Nady/Bozied abyss. But my other, more relevant, point is this: Worry about yer own damned team. Seriously. I'm through getting caught up in prospect lists and under-25 superstars-in-the-making, forecasting doom for ten years in the future. If the Diamondbacks do become an elite team, they'll probably use guys like Stephen Drew and Justin Upton, but they'll have to supplement the roster with guys who weren't even close to the team picture a couple of years ago. The next contending team probably isn't going to have a lot to do with Micah Owings or Chad Tracy. I did a lot of worrying about a specific collection of talent for nothing.

Now if you'll excuse me, I'm going to go think about the 2011 infield (Posey/Villalona/Noonan/Crawford/Sandoval) for a while. They should really rip the place up, especially when Madison Bumgarner is yet another perennial Cy Young candidate. Mmm. That's going to be a tasty, tasty omelet.

And, yes, I'm quite aware that this post will be responsible for the three home runs hit by Chad Tracy tonight.

Statistical Metrics II – Pitching

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 17:00:15 -0000

More photos » by Eric Risberg - AP

Yeah, I see him over there. He's VORPing really good today.

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Building on last week's discussion on the various statistical metrics we use to describe and value the production of batters, it's about time to look at the other side of the game: pitching.

Because there are so many variables to consider when valuing one pitcher versus another, pitching metrics are always a bit touchy. Most metrics will love traditional aces, what with their high strikeout potential, but others will differ on how good groundballers like Jason Marquis and Aaron Cook are. I hope we can shed a little light on what all the numbers and acronyms mean once again, and show those of you unfamiliar how we use them properly.

To begin, we'll kick it old school. Wins.

Now Wins are kind of a fun way to look back at a season and say "this guy did a good job for his team" after it's all over. The strength of the pitching win is that they can be a good way to reward a pitcher for an excellent performance. The downside is that they are an "ends justify the means" kind of stat to keep. For example, Ubaldo Jimenez pitched 8IP, struck out 9, gave up 2ER, and got the Win. However, the day before, Jorge De La Rosa pitched 6IP, gave up 6ER, and also got the Win.

Wins definitely correlate over a few seasons with the best pitchers, as the best tend to not allow many runs and pitch late into games. The issue with wins is that they tend to over reward pitchers who can pitch a lot of innings. My favorite example is Livan Hernandez, who tends to finish seasons with double digits in the W column, but is a noteworthy hit machine and a generally awful pitcher. Hernandez tends to get rewarded because he can hang on a long time and give his team a chance to crack into the opposition's bullpen.

Wins also zero predictive value from season to season. At best, they are a performance stat.

We can debate wins and losses all day, but that's a very brief reasoning on why I look past wins and losses as a measure of a pitcher's value.

Join us after the jump as we step into a pile of other pitching metrics.

ERA is the next logical metric to look at, and a very decent one to use in general. The upside of ERA is obviously that it gives you a good idea of how many runs a pitcher will allow in general. The downside is that it can over reward pitchers with an excellent defense or a majestic pitcher's park. ERA can tend to reflect the team's overall run preventing ability, with an obvious glut of the responsibility on the pitcher. Now, before you start typing your response on how pitching to your defense is a skill in itself, we'll talk about ERA discrepancies later on down the line.

An average ERA is 4.50, typically, while the MLB average this season is 4.35. Sub 3.00 and you're an all-star. Sub 2.50 and you're elite. Above 5 and you're a back end starter. Above 6.00 and you really shouldn't be pitching in the majors.

We all get ERA, and it's basically the easiest to just cite and not be too far off of base. You're not gonna see too many 2.00 ERA pitchers who are claimed to actually suck and 6.00 ERA pitchers claimed to actually be studs. Nobody should harp on anyone for citing ERA. But there are better metrics to view as we move forward.

To dial the metrics up a bit, there's also WHIP to take into consideration. WHIP is obviously just Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched. That's it. It's just a measure of the traffic a pitcher allows. And obviously, more traffic = bad. Average WHIP is 1.391. Whip below 1.2 is all-star level. WHIP below 1.1 is elite. WHIP below 1.00 is usually reserved for Mariano Rivera.

Before we touch on the more SABR slanted metrics, let's take a look at component stats. These are where the skills of a pitcher are really quantified.

K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 are the basics of the component stats, and they're complemented by GB% and FB%. Additionally, K/BB also works well with them, as it can provide context for a high BB/9 or a low K/9.

Now in terms of where these numbers fall in terms of where the league pitches is as follows: 6.9 K9, 3.5 BB9, 1.1 HR9, 2.01 K/BB. K/BB might be the more important thing to look at with a lot of pitchers, as a low K/9 complemented by a low BB/9 provides a solid K/BB, and you can rationalize a high BB/9 if your pitcher also carries a high K/9.

So rather than trying to put levels on K/9 and BB/9, we'll talk about K/BB instead. As mentioned above, 2.00 is about average. 1.50 is passable. 1.00 and you're probably not MLB caliber. 3.00 and you're a pretty dominating pitcher. 4.00 and up and you're downright elite.

Now the one component rate I don't lump up there is the HR/9 component. Because HRs in general are such a park-affected part of baseball, it's hard to just look at a HR/9 and say "good" or "bad". You kind of need to look at it based on your team and the environment you play in. As Rockies fans, I view a 1.00 as the line for someone really worth pursuing - in terms of starters at least. 2.00 is right out. 1.50 is pretty undesirable. A HR/9 of .70 or below is a solid pitcher.

So all these component numbers lead to a couple of things: firstly, you can use them to paint a picture of the pitcher in question, and secondly, they lead into the first of 2 SABR style metrics I'm going to review here.

FIP, for those SABR types following, is the logical followup to the component statistics. FIP is basically combining your K/9, BB/9, and HR/9 into one nice metric which mirrors ERA directly. An average FIP is the same as league average ERA, by definition. Now what FIP does is that it takes the balls in play out of the situation entirely (as a Home Run isn't really in play, fielders can't do anything to affect them) and rates a pitcher just based on what he does to the batter. Counting Rocks covered FIP a little while back, so you can get some more information on it there.

To really look at FIP, you need to compare it to ERA. For example, Matt Cain is sporting a 2.43 ERA right now - which is obviously excellent. However, Cain is backing that 2.43 ERA up with a 3.91 FIP. This isn't to say that Cain is pitching at a 3.91 ERA level, but it suggests that his strikeouts, walks, and homers are good enough on their own to put up a 3.91 ERA....does that make any sense? Don't look at FIP too literally, because for guys who pitch to contact a lot, it misses a major portion of their game.

How you need to look at FIP is really in the difference between FIP and ERA. In Cain's case, it would suggest that Cain is reaping the benefits of a good defense, a pitcher's park, and/or some good luck. Am I trying to say Cain sucks? Absolutely not. But what's interesting about Cain is that his past 4 seasons of FIP are (starting with 2009 and rolling backwards): 3.91, 3.91, 3.78, 3.96. Cain is pretty much the same pitcher this year as he has been the past 3 years, but this season, things are clicking better for him. Counting Rocks ran an analysis of Matt Herges in this same fashion, if you want to see a bit more of how we use components to evaluate a pitcher.

There is one extension to FIP, and that is xFIP, as presented by The Hardball Times. For all intents and purposes, xFIP is the same as FIP, but it normalizes the HR component of FIP to put everyone on a bit more of a level playing field. It should also be noted that xFIP has a pretty decent predictive value from year to year.

Moving forward, we have one final metric to discuss, and then I'll set you all loose to go all SABR on everyone out there.

tRA, again, covered by Counting Rocks, is yet another "looks like ERA" metric that has the same idea as FIP, but it actually takes regular balls in play into account in how it is scored. Basically, every event that happens in a game is worth a certain number of runs and a certain number of outs. What tRA does is sums up the number of "expected" runs and "expected" outs and then calculates it on a scale of 27 outs, or 9 innings. So basically, a ground ball is worth, say .90 outs, and a single is worth .75 runs. tRA is essentially the pitching equivalent of wOBA.

Another way to look a tRA is that it is a "report card" of how a pitcher did. When you see a pitcher who had an alright game, got a lot of ground balls, but also had a lot of balls squirt through and dying quails to no-man's land and such, but really pitched a better game than the final box score suggests, tRA will give them credit for the good things they did while appropriately penalizing them for the bad things they do. tRA, as compared to ERA, can do the same kind of thing that comparing ERA and FIP can do, but it will also take the hits and such into play.

For example, I have a guy who strikes out 4.5 guys per 9 innings, walks 2.5, and gives up .80 HR. FIP is gonna say this guy is pretty good. But what FIP misses is that the guy has a WHIP of about 1.70 because he's incredibly hittable in the meantime, gives up a pile of singles. tRA is gonna punish him for all those singles.

So to summarize all the fun we've had today, let's go ahead and check out a chart real quick:

	Elite	All Star	Average	Back-End	Adam Eaton
ERA/FIP/tRA	2.50	3.25	4.50	5.25	6.00+
WHIP	1.00	1.10	1.40	1.60	1.75
K/BB	4.00+	3.00	2.00	1.50	1.00

So that's it for this week, fair RowBots, I hope you have a good grasp of the advanced metrics now so when the statheads get on a roll, you're not left in the dark!

Rox can validate their presence in division race

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 20:57:48 -0000

More photos » by Jane Kalinowsky - AP

Might the Dodgers be too busy doing their...uh... victory dance (?)... that they let it all slip away?

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The Rockies could be in first place in the NL West Thursday. Let that sink in a bit. Technically, they would be tied with Los Angeles (and the Dodgers hold the tiebreaker), but that's still an incomprehensible achievement.

Remember that Colorado made up exactly zero games in the fifty that Manny Ramirez was suspended. Nada. Since the day Ma'amRam came back (which was the first game after the teams last played almost two months ago), the Rox have gone 30-17, making up 5.5 games on the Dodgers, who helped by going a modest 24-22.

Can the Rockies pull off the comeback by Thursday? Probably not. Sure, the Dodgers' offense has failed to get more than 3 runs in 8 of the past 11 games. Clayton Kershaw looks human and has been beaten up at Coors in the past. Vicente Padilla is making his first start in over three weeks and the Rockies are on an emotional high. But the pitching matchups are not kind to the Rockies, and a series victory will be hard enough to come by.

The rotation's top two starters are skipped for the series including the only Rockies starter the Dodgers have lost to (Marquis, twice). Instead, Jim Tracy will send out two men that failed to make a rotation out of Spring Training. You might be worried about the bullpen fatigue going into two games started by men who could get blown up in a hurry, especially after a late night 14-inning affair. However, the pen is more rested than you'd think. The number of pitches thrown from the pen in the last week:

Pitcher	Tues.	Wed.	Thu.	Fri.	Sat.	Sun.	Mon.
Street	16	10	13	-	8	14	11
Betancourt	-	9	17	-	1	-	10
Beimel	-	-	-	11	-	-	5
Morales	-	15	-	-	10	-	5
Daley	-	-	-	-	26	-	27
Eaton	-	-	-	42	-	-	55
Herges	-	-	-	-	10	-	-
Fogg	-	-	-	45	-	-	-

Street has been used frequently, but his pitch count has been down in every appearance. Thanks to Ubaldo Jimenez (see Tuesday and Sunday), only Matt Daley and Adam Eaton will be unavailable tonight.

Keep in mind that a series sweep isn't the only way to stay in the race. With these pitching matchups, winning the series will pull Colorado within two games, effectively giving the Rockies control of their own destiny.

TrueBlueLA feels the heat the Rockies are putting on, and Eric Stephen also noted the Climb of the Rockies this morning, as I linked in the Rockpile.

Be sure to hang out with the fans at True Blue LA. It's a good crowd and a far better place to be than McCovey Chronicles.

Los Angeles Dodgers (74-51, L1, 1st, 3.0 Gm Lead)

Tuesday-Thursday: 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: B

Manny Ramirez is not producing as expected. However, he's still among the elite hitters talent-wise, and his season wOBA is better than any Rockie. The Dodgers are third in the NL in runs and 3rd in wOBA. So this is the best offense we'll face outside of Philadelphia in the NL.

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Rafael Furcal - SS	.256	6	35	.323	.347	.298
Matt Kemp - CF	.312	18	77	.371	.501	.381
Andre Ethier - RF	.282	25	83	.369	.526	.378
Manny Ramirez - LF	.303	13	45	.417	.546	.401
Casey Blake - 3B	.280	15	69	.356	.470	.349
James Loney - 1B	.277	7	71	.350	.381	.322
Russell Martin - C	.258	4	38	.362	.327	.312
Orlando Hudson - 2B	.291	8	57	.358	.425	.347

The lineup construction makes much more sense after Matt Kemp was moved up from the 8-hole. Furcal is still a hole in the leadoff spot, and Torre has shuffled the bottom half of his lineup around recently, as well as the 2-hole. By wOBA metrics, the lineup features one superstar (Ramirez), two strong All-Star caliber players (Kemp and Ethier), two solidly above average hitters (Hudson and Blake), two below average hitters (Loney and Martin) and one flat out bad hitter (Furcal).

Joe Torre's sparsely used and very weak bench includes IF's Juan Castro (.304, 1, 9), Mark Loretta (.224, 0, 22) and Tony Abreu (2-for-8), C Brad Ausmus (.304, 1, 8), and OF Juan Pierre (.319/.376/.403).

The Arms: A-

Clayton Kershaw has been stout all season, and Randy Wolf is having a career year. Vicente Padilla got the pleasure of joining a division-leading rotation that is 3rd best in ERA in MLB. The bullpen has been pitching well, with only Belisario and Mota having ERA's over 3.50 in August. After being scored upon in 3 of 4 outings mid-August, Jonathan Broxton has tossed five straight scoreless outings, allowing only two hits, though he did get his first loss 8/19 without allowing a hit.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jonathan Broxton	7-1	55	0	0	0	27	5	58.0	32	20	19	4	24	87	2.95	.97

Joe Torre's hard-ridden bullpen has been anchored by closer Jonathan Broxton), with righties Ramon Troncoso and Ronald Belisario as setup men. Hong-Chih Kuo is back in the pen from the left side, and George Sherrill was the Dodgers' big deadline acquisition. Guillermo Mota, Jeff Weaver, and James McDonald are the pitchers we want to force Joe Torre to use. Still, only Weaver has been below average as a reliever per StatCorner.

The D: B-

Only three teams have committed fewer errors than Los Angeles, and their UZR/150 is 13th in MLB. Fangraphs rates them 12th in in the league, though notch em down for having Manny in left field for the series. Ethier is also rated as a very poor fielder by FG - in Brad Hawpe territory.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Clayton Kershaw	8-7	25	25	0	0	0	0	139.2	100	47	46	5	80	147	2.96	1.29

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	8-7	25	22	1	0	0	0	125.0	157	71	63	11	31	87	4.54	1.50

Kershaw has been a force to be reckoned with this season, though he's currently in the biggest lull since April. Still, 9 runs allowed in 4 starts qualifies as a lull, that's saying something. Notably though, Kershaw has failed to finish the fifth inning in 3 of 4 starts and is coming off of a bout with the flu. No one has beaten Kershaw up as consistently as the Rockies this season - he's given up 12 ER in 10.1 IP at Coors this year, and hte Dodgers have lost his last six starts. Jason Hammel has given up no more than 3 ER in four straight starts and 6 of 7. Home Hammel does exist (7.02 ERA) but he's kept the Rockies in games, which is all you can ask for. Colorado has won 6 of his last 7 starts at Coors Field with his only loss coming against Matt Cain. Favors: DODGERS moderately.

Wednesday, August 26, 6:40 pm MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Randy Wolf	8-6	28	27	0	0	0	0	169.2	144	67	63	19	45	128	3.34	1.11

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Josh Fogg	0-1	20	0	0	0	0	0	40.0	26	11	10	4	14	22	2.25	1.00

I don't understand where this Randy Wolf came from. According to Fangraphs, he has MLB's best fastball, which just seems ludicrous. Location location location. Hopefully, he talked to Lincecum Sunday night. In his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.98 ERA, 0.397 WHIP, 6.00 K/BB and 7.15 K/9. Plus he leads MLB in RBI by pitchers. Josh Fogg has done fine this season, but he's a contact pitcher. Matt Herges is set to relieve him, as long as Hammel doesn't implode tonight, in which case a roster move would need to be made. There's not reason to believe the Rockies can win this game. If they do, they win the series. Favors: DODGERS ridiculously heavily

Thursday, August 27, 1:10 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Vicente Padilla	8-6	18	18	0	0	0	0	108.0	120	61	59	12	42	59	4.92	1.50

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	12-8	25	24	0	0	0	0	141.2	140	79	75	18	58	145	4.76	1.40

Padilla will be making his first start in a Dodger uniform. Coors Field is a nice place for a pitcher to debut. Vicente allowed 2 ER in 5 IP in a warmup start in AAA Aug 22, his first time on the mound since Aug 5. He will be on an MLB mound for the first time in over three weeks, and he allowed 5+ runs in 3 of his last 5 starts in Texas. According to Fangraphs, he's throwing a splitter for the first time in his career this year in addition to a fastball, change, curve, slider and cutter. Only that 92mph fastball has been very effective this season. Jorge de la Rosa has appeared to be more volatile this month after a fantastic July. Still, he has shown much more poise than we're used to, and has won 10 of his last 11 starts. He is 7-5 with a 5.29 ERA at Coors. Favors: ROCKIES moderately

Andre Ethier is pushing .350 in August with 4 HR and Matt Kemp is hitting .301 in August with five dingers. Randy Wolf is in the midst of a strong 3-game stretch. Only Kershaw, Mota and Troncoso have ERAs over 3.50 this month. The pitching staff has allowed 3 or less runs in 8 straight games and 4 or less in 14 straight.

Rafael Furcal is hitting .211 with just two XBH this month. James Loney and Russell Martin are also hitting under .230 this month. The offense scored only 5 runs in the last 3 games vs. Chicago despite winning two, and have scored 2 or less in 5 of 7 games.

Doug Mientkiewicz (shoulder - 4/17) and Xavier Paul (ankle - 5/21) are on the 60-day DL. Hiroki Kuroda (concussion - 8/16), Jason Schmidt (shoulder - 8/6), and Will Ohman (shoulder - 5/28) are on the 15-day. James Loney has the flu and may be unable to play tonight, but should be able to pinch hit and start tomorrow. Mark Loretta would be the likely replacement at first.

Poll

Will the Rockies be tied for the NL West lead after Thursday's game?

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEES!!!!! SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP!! TEAM OF DEEEEESTINY!

53 votes

No, but they'll inch to 2.0 GB with a series win, thereby keeping control of their destiny.

152 votes

No. The pitching matchups are not helpful for the Rockies at all in this series. They're a much better team than LA previously faced, so they won't get swept, but I can't see the Rox winning this series.

66 votes

Not even close. The Dodgers have the Rockies number and push them to 6GB with a sweep. Oh well, the wild card is ours to lose (not the Braves') anyway.

26 votes

297 votes | Poll has closed

Rockies 6, Giants 4: Ryan Spilborghs hits walkoff grand slam in the 14th

Russ Oates — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 06:12:53 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Ryan Spilborghs, man of the hour. We spilly you, man!

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I don't believe what I just saw!

Forget whatever you thought about home plate umpire Angel Campos. Forget what you said after Adam Eaton gave up three runs in the top of the 14th.

Remember the bottom of the 14th inning. Dexter Fowler walks after hitting a ball off his knee. Barmes makes his usual out. Chris Iannetta remains dreamy by coming in with a pinch-hit single. Troy Tulowitzki walks. Bases loaded for the pitcher Adam Eaton. Surely this was going to end the game. But with Justin Miller in, anything can happen--and it did. Eaton didn't swing the bat. Walk, RBI. 4-2. Bases loaded for Ryan Spilborghs; Merkin Valdez comes in.

RYAN SPILBORGHS HITS A WALKOFF GRAND SLAM!

via www.fangraphs.com

That's a beautiful image.

I love this team, and all of you!

71 - 54

Games Back: 3.0

Streak: Won 3

Games Left: 37

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Post-Game Thread: Giants Concede the Season

Grant — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 05:41:36 -0000

Liveblogging the end of the game....

8:19: Runner on first, no one out, and Aaron Rowand strikes out on three pitches. Do I mail a check for those postseason tickets, or is there a way to use my debit card?

8:28: If Howry blows this -- hey, look, a rookie outfielder is due to hit fourth! -- I'm not even going to blame him. He's pitched well enough this year, and he's been a fine fourth bullpen option. On a normal team with a non-wretched offense, he'd be a quiet, underrated contributor. On this Giants team, though, every late-inning outing in which he appears is an "Oh, dude, we totally haven't scored any runs this game, so you can't give up any, or else we'll lose. You have no margin for error. Good luck."

8:33: Oh, I get it. You didn't start the ninth inning with Wilson because you're saving him for a save situation. Except now you bring him in with runners on because it's suddenly an important inning? Like, it wasn't before? That makes none sense.

8:34: Kuiper: "The Giants would like to get this to the tenth, where they'll have the top of the order up." The top of the order: Velez, Winn, Uribe. It's cheating to make too much of this, as the only reason Uribe is hitting third is because Sandoval left with an injury, but if a team has Velez, Winn, and Uribe as the 6-7-8 hitters, that team's offense sucks. And how. So pardon me if I'm not excited that the Giants have the top of the lineup coming up.

8:40: Wow. I can't believe the Giants didn't score. I mean, they had the top of the order up.

8:48: Wow. I can't believe Velez made an error to put a runner into scoring position with no outs.

8:51: Still on life support, as the legend of Schierholtz's arm saves the game for the moment. Ryan Garko doesn't understand

8:53: MAGIC DOUBLE PLAY KEEPS THE SEASON ALIVE. Good gravy. Runner on second, no outs, a base hit, and...nothing. I would have lost the pink slip to my car if someone had put a twenty against it.

8:58: Molina bloops a single, and Ryan Spilborghs cocks his arm, obviously thinking about a throw to first. Awesome.

9:00: The home plate ump isn't giving the outside corner to either team. Good for him for being consistent.

9:01: Rough night for Schierholtz. Don't worry, though. Whiteside will fix it all. Correction: Brian Wilson's Bunting Magiporium will get the runner into scoring position! Unless he bunts into a double play.

9:03: Dammit. Just dammit. Helluva takeout slide by Lincecum at second, though.

9:06: OK, it's probably amusing to Rockie partisans, but having a burnout in a purple triceratops costume gyrate his hips behind home plate to distract the pitcher is a disgrace. It's an absolute disgrace. For all of the "Curse of the Bambino/Billy Goat" nonsense that surfaces every October, I'm hoping that in 2093, some sportscaster picks up on the Curse of the Inappropriately Ridiculous Mascot as the reason for the 100-year championship drought.

9:08: A 1-2 single from Yorvit Torrealba. Man, how I wish he were our cleanup hitter.

9:13: I have a ton of respect for Wilson, win or lose. Forty pitches, a runner on third with less than two outs, and he's still pumping 99 MPH fastballs by hitters.

9:14: Time for the twelfth inning. SCORE SOME RUNS, YOU DERELICTS. Fur coat and lame reality show notwithstanding, Wilson is almost certainly the most underrated member of this wacky playoff race.

9:16: The top of the twelfth starts with a quick Rowand-two count. How have we missed that nickname in the past two years?

9:23: Joe Beimel! Maybe he can be the karmic refund for Bobby Howry's multiple gifts to opposing teams.

9:25: Maybe not.

9:27: Checking the Fresno box score, I notice that John Bowker and Buster Posey have combined for twice as many walks as the Giants tonight. That's kind of funny. Less funny: Jesus Guzman has as many walks as the Giants.

9:30: Bottom twelve, and it's a 1-1 tie. In Coors Field. If you traveled back in time to 1998 in a flying Delorean, bringing an iPhone and a box score from this game, I know which one would have fascinated me the most. Two combined runs in 12 innings? What manner of sorcery be this?

9:35: If a major league team can't score runs off Adam Eaton, they don't deserve to be a major league team, much less a contending major league team. Mmmm. Belt-high 90-MPH fastballs and hanging breaking balls. Them's tough pitches! If Adrian Gonzalez is going to terrorize us for the next five years, the least Eaton could do is let us win.

9:41: That's the fastest Eli Whiteside will ever run from now until his last breath. Whew.

9:42: Schierholtz swings at a slider at his back foot. The sun sets in the west. A dog howls at the moon.

9:43: It wasn't a total blown call, but I wouldn't have blamed Angel Campos for calling Schierholtz out on the 2-2 changeup. Gameday says it was a ball.

9:47: Freddy Sanchez will rescue us all! Freddy San...aw, crap. He was just a decoy, and Brandon Medders will hit. Sanchez will be healthy in 14 days, so you can see why it's totally insane to put him on the 15-day DL. WHAT IF WE NEEDED HIM IN THAT 15TH GAME? Good gravy, think about that for a second. That would have been a nightmare to have needed him if he were unavailable.

9:49: Adam Eaton allows three baserunners and lowers his WHIP for the season. Medders has the best swing of the night. I wonder if he can play second.

9:59: Brandon Medders. The answer was Brandon Medders. Not Brandon Puffer, and not Brandon Villafuerte. The correct answer for "non-roster invitee who actually pans out" was Brandon Medders. Beautiful outing, and he almost had the game winning hit.

10:01: Second inning for Adam Eaton, Who, again, pitched himself off of the Orioles roster. Rowand-two promptly waves at two breaking balls that BOUNCED IN FUCKING KANSAS. Only three more years, and then we'll get to watch someone else!

10:04: One out triple from Renteria, aided by some funky caroms in the corner. I, for one, am skeptical that the Giants can hit a fly ball.

10:05: Kuiper: "If you are Ishikawa, this is the at-bat of your lifetime." So, so true.

10:07: Velez. A moratorium on Velez-related punchlines for, like, six months if he gets this run home.

10:09: VELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZ!

10:10: VELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!

10:10: omgomgomgomgomgomgvelez

10:11: And they get another run. Unbelievable.

10:15: Wait, why are the Giants running out to the field? The Rockies get another freaking chance? Ooof.

10:18: The 1-0 pitch to Fowler in the bottom of the 14th was obviously a strike, but it was called a ball. Next pitch is a make-up call, way outside.

10:19: Ugh. Fowler's hurt. That's no good. I sure wish the Giants had one of those sweet young centerfielders. Fowler, Rasmus, Schafer, Maybin, McCutchen...nope. Rowand!

10:21: Three-run lead? Better be careful with that leadoff hitter. Nibble. Just don't let him hit a grand slam, even if you have to walk him.

10:27: Justin Miller fires in an 87-MPH fastball to start his save chance. Err.

10:33: Tying run on base -- two walks! -- winning run at the plate. Adam Eaton is up. First pitch: Waaaay outside. Second pitch: Waaaaay outside. Holy crap. Throw srikes, Miller.

10:35: Miller walks the pitcher. Tying run at second. Winning run at first. Thanks for the surprisingly productive work this year, Justin, but I'd just as soon never watch you pitch again.

10:39: The season is over.

The season is over.

That's the worst game I've ever seen.

Tulo's Flu Infects Entire Club: Giants 6, Rockies 3

Jabberwocky — Sat, 22 Aug 2009 04:38:34 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Who wants a do-over? Todd Helton does.

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This was not the finest hour for the Colorado Rockies. In a very big game for both teams, the Rockies fell flat, losing to the Giants by a score of 6-3. Colorado's hopes of winning the game took a hit when it was revealed that Troy Tulowitzki was out with flu-like symptoms--symptoms that apparently affected all facets of the game for the Rockies. Colorado was anemic offensively, shaky defensively (three errors committed), and worst of all, Aaron Cook (10-6) was ineffective and left the game in the fourth inning with a shoulder injury that will likely land him on the DL.

Aaron Rowand provided the big blow for the Giants with a three run shot in the fourth off of Josh Fogg to make it 6-1. The Rockies were plagued by the strikeout yet again, going down ten times in the game (two each by Atkins, Hawpe, Iannetta, Barmes, and Stewart). All in all, not a good game.

On the positive side, Dexter Fowler reached base all five times he appeared at the plate, Seth Smith hit a solo home run (the offense was there against the San Francisco bullpen), and Adam Eaton wan't horrible. So we've got that going for us, which is nice.

With the loss the Rockies' Wild Card lead was cut to one, and with the Dodgers winning, the division deficit will likely be 4.5 games.

Box Score

68 - 54

Games Back: 4.5

Streak: Lost 1

Games Left: 40

via www.fangraphs.com

Defenders of the Hall: Dexter Fowler (.138), Seth Smith (.016),, Adam Eaton (.012)
Suckiest Sucks Who Ever Did Suck: Aaron Cook (net -.187), Josh Fogg (-.111), Ryan Spilborghs (-.089)

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