SB Nation - Cole Hamels

Does Anyone Like the Phillies' Lee Trade?

David S. Cohen — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 14:24:34 -0000

This is an honest question. Outside Phillies reporters (or ex-reporters) who rely on access to the team in order to put food on their table each day, are there any analysts who like what the Phillies did with Cliff Lee?

Obviously I can only read a small portion of what's out there, but what I've read isn't pretty. (And I agree with it.) Below is my sampling. In the comments, please post links to what you've seen from other analysts about the Lee trade. And if you find someone saying the Phillies did the right thing here, I'd in particular like to see that.

Matt Swartz, Baseball Prospectus: "The only team that does not necessarily come out ahead in this is the Phillies. The team really made two separate trades—three prospects for Roy Halladay conditional on an awesome extension, and Cliff Lee for three inferior prospects. The former will turn out to be a success and the latter will not. . . . The issue I take is that they could have non-tendered Joe Blanton (or, better yet, traded him for some inferior prospects) and Chad Durbin and won two or three more games in 2010 at the same $9 million salary. I say that even as someone who believes Blanton is vastly underrated, but they could have gotten better value by doing that. If Blanton was worth nothing on the trade market (which I am skeptical about), then the Phillies were foolish to offer him arbitration—clearly no one else would have even offered him his arbitration estimate on the free-agent market, so why pay him that much? Figure out what other teams would pay him and offer him that and a cookie."

Joe Sheehan, Baseball Prospectus: "This, in fact, gets to my biggest problem with the sequence: Roy Halladay just left $60 million on the table to come to Philadelphia. The Phillies couldn’t leave $9 million on it in pursuit of putting him on the best team in baseball? . . . The Phillies play in a taxpayer-funded ballpark, have been to back-to-back World Series—with all the direct revenue that generates—and will no doubt pack Citizens Bank Ballpark again in 2010 with another three million people paying even higher ticket, parking, concession, and souvenir prices. To trade away Cliff Lee in a blatant money move is utterly ridiculous under those circumstances, and worse still, turns the Roy Halladay trade into little more than a minor upgrade."

Christina Kahrl, Baseball Prospectus: "Less certain is the necessity of coupling this trade with the deal that put Lee in Seattle. Even if you accept for the sake of argument the suggestion that Amaro had to work within a budget, and that he had to have one or the other, this seems to suggest that the Phillies just blew it by being active early and, true to form, acted fast. If payroll's a problem, then the money spent on Placido Polanco or Ross Gload or Juan Castro or Brian Schneider—in short, the entire pack of elective add-ons, these veteran talents barely above the free-talent alternatives or players making close to the minimum—deserves to be seen collectively as needlessly spent money on players who don't significantly alter the Phillies' chances at a third pennant, not nearly so much as having a rotation with Doc and Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels gives you a rotation that might have been able to handily beat the best the AL might throw at you, and start a case for elevating the Phillies to dynastydom."

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs: "The Cliff Lee to Seattle portion of this trade just seems very light in return for the Phillies. They’re getting two power arms with a lot of questions marks and a speedy center fielder without a lot of power. None of these guys are top tier prospects. This is the best Philadelphia could have gotten for Lee? Really? A pu-pu platter of interesting, high-risk guys not really close to the majors for a Cy Young-quality pitcher who is already well on his way to Type A free agency? And, even if that’s true, why clear $8 million from the books by trading Lee? Surely, you could have moved Joe Blanton without eating any of his salary, even if you didn’t love the deals being offered. Or, how about this – don’t sign J.C. Romero, Brian Schneider, and Ross Gload, whose 2010 salaries are about equal to Lee’s. Replace those three reserves with league minimum guys and you’ve saved enough money to keep Lee around."

Evan Burnell, Hardball Times: "The Phillies overextended themselves financially last year and are trying to keep payroll steady (the $6 million they're receiving in the deal helps tremendously). In addition, the prospects back to Philadelphia help to replenish a farm system gutted by the Lee and Halladay trades. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, I don't think they're receiving anything more than midlevel prospects who are a long shot to have long-term value in town. They all look like eventual major leaguers, but are they anything more than replacement level? We can't answer that definitively. I do credit GM Ruben Amaro, however, for recognizing the need to replenish the farm system. [On the other hand,] the Seattle Mariners made a tremendous move acquiring Cliff Lee for three prospects that don't rank as even guaranteed future major leaguers."

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 xFIP Leaders and Some 2010 Sleepers

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:32:02 -0000

Recently, Fangraphs has teamed up with The Hardball Times to include the THT pitching stat called Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or xFIP.
xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. <strong>Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA</strong>

With that said, here are the 2009 xFIP leaders:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77	2.82	0.05
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34	2.87	-0.39
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06	3.05	-0.26
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23	3.08	0.06
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15	3.13	0.28
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33	3.15	-0.99
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8	3.26	0.19
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11	3.36	-0.73

Here are some sleepers for 2010 based on the difference between their 2009 ERA and xFIP:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Carl Pavano	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	0.335	66.10%	5.1	4	3.96	1.14
Livan Hernandez	5	3.28	1.52	0.93	1.56	0.326	67.30%	5.44	4.44	4.78	0.66
Cole Hamels	7.81	2	3.91	1.12	1.29	0.325	72.10%	4.32	3.72	3.69	0.63
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	0.97	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38	3.91	3.76	0.62
Jason Hammel	6.78	2.14	3.17	0.87	1.39	0.337	69.50%	4.33	3.71	3.81	0.52
Mike Pelfrey	5.22	3.22	1.62	0.88	1.51	0.321	66.70%	5.03	4.39	4.52	0.51
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Derek Lowe	5.13	2.91	1.76	0.74	1.52	0.33	68.70%	4.67	4.06	4.19	0.48
Brett Anderson	7.7	2.31	3.33	1.03	1.28	0.317	67.00%	4.06	3.69	3.61	0.45

You can see there is a correlation between high BABIP, low LOB% and the E-X column. The E-X column takes the difference between the putcher's ERA and his xFIP. I have written about previously, how Ricky Nolasco could be a very undervalued pitcher come draft day 2010. I have him in the UBA league at $10, but risk losing him if I don't give him a raise. This table screams to give him a raise, but I am not so sure.

Poll

Should I give Nolasco a $5 raise in 2010?

MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay to the Phillies for Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek??

raygu — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 14:00:31 -0000

More photos » by NATHAN DENETTE - AP

6 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Roy Halladay reacts after defeating the Los Angeles Angels 6-4 during the ninth inning of a baseball game in Toronto, Canada, Tuesday, June 2, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Nathan Denette)

Browse more photos »

It has been very quiet Winter Meetings if you are looking for rumors involving Roy Halladay. Toronto GM Alex Anthopolous is keeping things close to the vest and not allowing trade talks to leak out to the likes of Jon Heyman, Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal. It appears he wants to manage and drive the price up for Roy Halladay himself, rather than through the media.

But yesterday, Buster Olney posted this in his morning blog post that I was thinking about once I heard the Phillies were shopping Joe Blanton:

Our colleague Jayson Stark reported that the Phillies are taking offers for Joe Blanton, which makes you wonder if they are quietly trying to clear salary space for a possible run at Roy Halladay.

It would not suprise me to see the Phillies make an effort to deal for Roy Halladay. I can't imagine a rotation of Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels-three aces on one staff would be hard to beat.

Would a package involving outfield prospect Michael Taylor and pitching prospect Kyle Drabek be enough to get Halladay? But the only way the Phillies make this deal is if they clear some payroll and deal Joe Blanton, otherwise their payroll hits $150 million in 2010. But if you deal Blanton, who is their 5th starter? I assume they could search the bargain bin in free agency.

Poll

Who leaves the suite first on the proposed Roy Halladay for Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek deal?

Things I Would Do If It Meant Not Signing Bengie Molina To A Dumb Contract

James Kannengieser — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 10:00:19 -0000

Re-watch every one of Oliver Perez's 2009 starts.

Go donut for donut with Livan Hernandez.

Spend the 4th of July with Vince Coleman.

Read all the Twilight books (just like Cole Hamels!).

Watch every film on the IMDB Bottom 100 in a row.

Let Kevin Mitchell babysit my cat.

Interrupt Al Leiter and John Franco's annual barbecue with some gangsta rap blaring from a boombox.

Go drankin' and huntin' with Brett Myers.

Take horse race betting advice from Paul Lo Duca ("bet it all on RobTheCradle in the 5th at Saratoga").

Listen to Evan Roberts and Joe Beningo everyday.

Go out for pizza with Shane Spencer and Karim Garcia.

Endure a swift kick to my nether regions courtesy of Robocop.

Get the same haircut as Jayson Werth.

A Citi Field version of BodySuit Man.

Watch the 9th inning of Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS once a day for the rest of my life.

Read every column ever written by Kevin Kernan and Bill Madden.

Watch every Kevin Costner film in which he attempts an accent.

Enroll in "Negotiations 101", Omar Minaya's first class as a college professor.

Go out for a night on the town with Miguel Cabrera.

Hire Jerry Koosman's accountant to do my taxes.

Continue to watch almost every Met game despite the incompetents in the front office (I will still do this even if Bengie is signed, unfortunately).

How Much Could Carl Pavano Get Through Arbitration?

Jesse — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:02:21 -0000

Six million? That's alright. Ten million? That's outta sight. Right?

When the Twins offered Carl Pavano arbitration on Tuesday, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. He was the only Minnesota free agent to receive an offer, and well, that really didn't come as a surprise either.

Pavano and his agent have made it clear that they intend to test the open market, but for a guy who A) has said he wouldn't mind a return to Minnesota, B) has said he's not really interested in finding himself on another new team, C) probably wants to play for a contender and D) would be entering a free agent market where salaries could be suppressed (hurrah collusion conspiracy theories!), does he really want to turn down the opportunity that's presented itself to him?

The burly right-hander turns 34 in early January, and is coming off of his first not just productive but healthy season since 2004 when he was still with the Marlins. I don't want to say the end is in sight for Carl, but realistically there are way more years in baseball behind him than in front of him.

We've talked before about how FanGraphs tends to over-value a player's production in terms of dollars, and it's no different with Pavano as they estimate that on the open market his production was worth $16.5 million dollars. Obviously there's no way his numbers would be worth that much money to replace. But he was probably worth more than the $1.5 million base he was on the books for in 2009.

Here's Pavano and six other guys who had similar seasons across a number of different categories; some are closer than others.

Player	Age	Team	IP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/G	WHIP	FG Dollars
Carl Pavano	33	Indians/ Twins	199.1	4.00	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	$16.5
Nick Blackburn	27	Twins	205.1	4.37	4.29	1.79	2.39	1.09	1.37	$13.3
Mark Buehrle	30	White Sox	213.1	4.46	4.43	1.90	2.33	1.14	1.25	$15.2
James Shields	27	Rays	219.2	4.02	6.84	2.13	3.63	1.19	1.32	$18.3
Cole Hamels	25	Phillies	193.2	3.72	7.81	2.00	3.91	1.12	1.29	$16.9
Ryan Dempster	32	Cubs	200.0	3.87	7.74	2.93	2.65	0.99	1.31	$16.4
Scott Baker	27	Twins	200.0	4.08	7.29	2.16	3.38	1.26	1.19	$15.9

Blackburn was under team control last summer, but the rest of this fine cast of characters were all pitching under a contract in 2009:

Pavano: $1.5 M
Buehrle: $14.0 M
Shields: $1.5 M
Hamels: $4.35 M
Dempster: $8 M
Baker: $750 K

Immediately you see the problem. All of these guys are at different stages of their careers and at different contractual stages, and it's not realistic to just take the average of the six salaries for an estimate, which is just over $5 million. Or is it?

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible starters from last winter who were 30 or older, and what kind of a contract they received, although this won't help either because it's not free-agent arbitration:

Mike Gonzalez, 30, 1 year/$3.45 M
Brandon Backe, 30, 1 year/$1.55 M
Wandy Rodriguez, 30, 1 year/$2.6 M
Chris Capuano, 30, minor-league contract
Justin Duchscherer, 31, 1 year/$3.9 M
Todd Wellemeyer, 30, 1 year/$4.05 M

Which of course means Pavano is, more than likely, due more money than Wellemeyer received last year in his final year of arbitration. But how much?

A 34-year old Braden Looper made $4.75 million in 2009 after signing a contract with the Brewers. Coming out of his age-31 season Dempster signed a pretty substantial four-year deal with the Cubs. Randy Wolf (32) made a shade under $5 million this season, and Pavano's former rotation-mate Brady Penny (31 last season) made about the same. Jamie Moyer (older than baseball itself) made $6.5 million.

Those are the kind of guys Pavano can be grouped with: veterans who can provide innings and still be effective without breaking the bank and/or being the staff ace. So maybe $5 million doesn't actually sound so bad for an arbitration offer after all.

If that's all arbitration could garner Pavano, maybe he really might be better taking his chances on the market if he is concerned about the dollars.

Conclusions

With uncharacteristically low contracts offered last season, there has been a lot of talk that teams in baseball would rather non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players and forego the remaining year(s) of team control than pay what has suddenly become a price higher than market value. It's a financial luxury teams are choosing not to take advantage of. If this is indeed the case, some veterans who aren't sure of what the market will provide may be tempted to accept that arbitration offer.

Additionally, Pavano's recent history is blemished with injuries and an entire lost season, and that leads me to believe that the chances of his payday in arbitration being closer to $10 million than to $5 million aren't very high. But realistically, after the season he had in '09, I have little doubt that he could find a team willing to offer a two or three-year deal worth that $5 million...per year. If not more (I have some doubts about a continued suppression of spending in free agency this year). So in spite of the possibly lowered expectations on the free agent market and a guaranteed payday via the arbitration route, Carl will probably have the option of multiple years. Personally, that's not something I want to see the Twins take on.

It was a good move by Minnesota to make Pavano the offer, and oddly enough it puts them in a no-lose situation. If he accepts they'll get him for one year at what is likely to be a price that the team can easily absorb, and if not then the Twins receive a compensatory draft pick next June and the freedom to go after somebody else with that allocated cash. As long as this doesn't somehow turn into a multi-year, mega-millions fiasco, this is a good situation.

MLB Trade Rumors: Roy Halladay to Phillies for Cole Hamels??

raygu — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:00:24 -0000

by Darren Calabrese - AP

4 months ago: Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay works against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning of a baseball game in Toronto on Wednesday, Aug. 19, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press, Darren Calabrese)

View full size photo »

A friend of mine who is a Phillies fan emailed me today saying he was watching Comcast Sports Nite earlier this evening, and during the show, they were talking about the Phillies interest in Roy Halladay. They mentioned that the Phillies expressed an interest in Halladay and Toronto came back asking for Cole Hamels.

And apparently the Phillies are listening.

This move by the Phillies would surprise me as Hamels is still a very young pitcher, with alot of talent. He just has a bad year for him, but for most pitchers, he had an average year. For the Phillies to deal him, they must feel that he doesn't have the mental toughness anymore.

Hamels dominated in the 2008 season and playoffs. He won the World Series MVP. And now the Phillies are talking about trading him? This tells me two things. One, they really want to get back to the World Series in 2010. The team is built to win now. And two, they don't think Hamels will rebound in 2010, which I am not so sure I agree with based on his peripherals.

Hamels went 10-11 in 2009, with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. In 193 innings, he struck out 168 batters and walked 43 giving up 24 HRs. His K/BB actually increased from 3.70 in 2008 to 3.91 in 2009. His HR/9 was about the same as in 2008 and his HR/FB% dropped from 11.2% to 10.7%, but his BABIP increased from .270 in 2008 to .325 in 2009. His GB%, LD% and FB% were pretty much unchanged from 2008.

Based on his peripherals, one would conclude Hamels was unlucky in 2009, and is a good choice for a bounce back in 2010.

And the Phillies are rumored to be trading him for Roy Halladay. Should the Phils deal Hamels for Halladay, they will be heavy favorites to make the 2010 World Series. But, they may be forced to sign either Lee or Halladay long-term after the 2010 season. That may force the Phillies hand as both Jimmy Rollins and Jayson Werth are free agents at the end of the 2010 season. Otherwise, the Phils will be left with a rotation of J.A. Happ, Joe Blanton and Kyle Drabek.

Poll

Should the Phillies deal Cole Hamels for Roy Halladay?

Yes, Halladay guarantees another World Series appearance.

331 votes

No, the Phillies rotation will be decimated come 2011.

217 votes

548 votes | Poll has closed

The 2009 World Series: The Boring One

David S. Cohen — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 16:00:46 -0000

We're now on our second day post-World Series, and I can't fight off this nagging feeling that the championship series I just watched was, well, pretty damn boring.

Yes, it was a World Series, and with the Phillies' long record of futility, there's really no ground for complaining when the team just makes it to the post-season, let alone to the World Series. But, in the context of a best-of-7 match for the best team in baseball, it's hard to say that this Series had much going for it.

Sure, this was the first World Series to go past 6 games since 2003. And the Yankees won their first championship in their new stadium. And Chase Utley tied the record for most home runs in a World Series. And Hideki Matsui was dominant. And Mariano Rivera was, well, Mariano Rivera. But all of those things added in with the rest of the Series just didn't add up to anything exciting or memorable.

The best way to capture this sentiment is the following: over the course of the six games, there were 2 lead changes. That's it. Even worse is that both of them occurred in drabs over the course of the middle innings. Otherwise, once a team took the lead in this series, the other team never got ahead. Of course, this doesn't mean that it wasn't good baseball, but it does mean that from a fan's perspective, this isn't particularly exciting baseball.

The overall series momentum also didn't provide much excitement. The Phillies took the early 1-0 lead, but then the Yankees won 3 in a row. Had the Phillies won their second in Game 4 instead of Game 5, the Series would have taken on a new level of excitement. But, that's not what happened, and by the time the Phillies had 2 wins, the Yankees were heading home looking for one to clinch. Momentum really didn't shift, and the Series ended as it seemed it would without any real surprise.

Looking at the particulars of each game confirms this, as only Game 4 had much real excitement. Yet, even that excitement lasted only a very short period of time. Here are each of the games re-capped, along with the mostly uni-directional win probability graphs. I've also given each game an excitement ranking on a 1 to 10 scale, with 10 being Joe-Carter-Game-6-in-1993 exciting and 1 being a mid-August Pirates/Padres 6-2 snooze-fest:

Game 1: Cliff Lee dominated the Yankees, holding them to one unearned run. That's a wonderful pitching performance, but it's not high drama. Chase Utley's two home runs against CC Sabathia were exciting, but the rest of the offense was dormant until the last two innings. And, at that point, the game was pretty much over. The Yankees had no chance against Lee, and the graph below shows it. The only thing going for the game on the excitement meter was that it was Game 1, which seemed like a big deal at the time. Excitement factor: 6.

via www.fangraphs.com

Game 2: One of our two lead-change games, the Phillies took an early lead, but then Pedro Martinez slowly gave it back, one run at a time, until the Yankees had a lead that Mariano Rivera protected with a 2 inning save. The lead change was exciting, as was some good pitching from Martinez and A.J. Burnett, but the drip-drip run-scoring from the Yankees along with the certitude of the Rivera save worked against this game having much excitement to it. The steady incline of the win probably graph confirms this. Excitement factor: 4.

Game 3: Here we get out second, and last, lead change of the Series. The Phillies took an early 3-0 lead behind a dominant Cole Hamels. But then it all fell apart in the middle innings, as the Yankees outscored the Phillies 8-1 over the course of innings 4 through 8. The Phillies' feeble comeback just assured another Rivera shut-down appearance in the ninth. This game was over in the fifth, and the entire stadium knew it (and the graph confirms). Excitement factor: 3.

Game 4: This was the only high-drama game of the Series. The Phillies staged a late inning comeback against Sabathia and Joba Chamberlain, who looked great in the eighth inning until Pedro Feliz shockingly tied the game with a home run. Brad Lidge entered the ninth and looked great as well, but followed Chamberlain's pattern of not being able to put away the last batter. Lidge allowed 3 in the ninth, and another Rivera appearance assured the Yankees' third win. This is the only win probably graph with much of a jagged edge. Excitement factor: 8.

Game 5: This game was over early, as the Phillies took a big lead with Cliff Lee pitching. He wasn't as sharp as Game 1, but he was pitching well enough and the offense put up enough runs that the game was not much in doubt. The Yankees did mount a bit of a comeback and made the ninth inning tense, but it was too little, too late. That ninth inning comeback rescues this game from a 1, as the virtually flatlined win probably graph would seem to merit. Excitement factor: 4.

Game 6: This was the worst of the bunch. The only thing it had going for it was that it was Hideki Matsui's 6 RBI and that it was the last game. Otherwise, the Yankees took an early lead, the Phillies' hitters couldn't hit with men on, and everyone knew Rivera was going to come in for more than 3 outs, possibly 6. He ultimately came in for 5 outs and closed the door to finish the Series, as we all knew he would. The graph below merits a 1 on the excitement scale, but the championship win boosts this game, but only slightly as it was a complete bore. Excitement factor: 2.

The average excitement factor here is 4.5 on a 10 point scale. Of course, this is an arbitrary and subjective scale, but take a look at the fangraphs collectively and note the extreme absence of much fluctuation at all. There's no two ways about it: this was a boring series.

Of course, I'd feel completely different had the Phillies won it all . . . .

Phillies Breakfast Links, November 6, 2009: Aloha, Phillies!

WholeCamels — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 13:04:06 -0000

I'm taking the Breakfast Links back to couple-times-a-week status for now, although that might change during the Winter Meetings and whatnot. Thanks to Wet Luzinski for handling probably the toughest day so far (I assure you I wasn't doing anything fun that morning). And thanks to everyone else for reading. We'll be here all offseason.

Phillies may try to sign Cliff Lee to extension this off-season
The article discusses Sabathia money... I don't know if it'll be that much, but it'll be a lot. And they'll either have to cut spending in other areas (bye Werth?) or increase payroll quite a bit.

10 questions facing the Phillies
I love Pedro Martinez, but I don't think he has a place on this team going forward. Thanks for everything.

Frank: Next year, Phillies could use help from ace, closer
Cole Hamels will be fine. Trust me. And even if he's not, that ring in 2008? His.

5 questions for the Phillies to ponder
Pedro Feliz has to go. Sorry, buddy.

Myers status with Phillies enters flux
It's a tough call. If he wants to come back on a one-year low value "make good" deal, I'm all for it.

Crowd greets players at 30th Street Station
Cool.

Top 10 Phillies Moments Of 2009
Discuss.

How Did They Do That?

dajafi — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 04:02:53 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Ryan Madson: last man standing of the Phillies' 2008 pitching stalwarts. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

Browse more photos »

Not quite 24 hours after the Phillies saw their season come to an end one day and two wins before we hoped it would, my disappointment at the conclusion is starting to give way to something like amazement that they got as close as they did. Of arguably the six most important Phillies pitchers from the 2008 championship run--starters Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Jamie Moyer, and relievers Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero--a stunning five saw their contributions plummet in the season that just ended.

By contrast, consider the last NL team to win back-to-back pennants: the Atlanta Braves of the mid-1990s. The world champion 1995 Braves boasted a rotation led by future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, who combined for 47 wins and 601 innings that season. Their bullpen was anchored by closer Mark Wohlers (204 ERA+) and setup men Greg McMichael (153) and Brad Clontz (117). The '96 Braves, who also lost their repeat bid to the Yankees in six games, had a pitching staff led by... Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Wohlers, McMichael and Clontz. The three starters combined for 54 wins and an amazing 724 innings; Wohlers (ERA+ 145) and McMichael (136) were strong again, though Clontz (77) was much less effective. To sum up, the top five pitchers powered the Atlanta pennant-winners in both years.

Which brings us to the 2008-2009 Phillies.

In '08, Hamels, Myers and Moyer combined for 40 wins and 613.2 innings in the regular season (plus 6 wins and 65.2 innings through the three rounds of the playoffs). Lidge pitched to a superlative ERA+ of 225; Madson (144) and Romero (160) were great as well, and came up even bigger in the playoffs. A year later, Hamels went from "Darth Vader in spikes," as the Braves broadcasters (in perhaps the sole contribution to humankind) once dubbed him, to a young pitcher struggling with command and composure. Myers looked like he might challenge Bert Blyleven's single season home run record through a middling month and a half, then got hurt. Moyer pitched his way out of the rotation, remade himself as a surprisingly effective long reliever, then suffered a season-ending injury in September. They combined for 26 wins and 426.1 innings during the season, and Hamels added another victory in October. Lidge... well, you know about Lidge: his 2009 campaign was arguably the worst any closer has ever suffered through. His ERA+ was *59*. That's not a misprint. Romero missed the first fifty games of the season with a suspension for taking illegal supplements, briefly returned and was middling, then got hurt and missed the last month plus the playoffs. Only Madson stood tall again, with an ERA+ of 131. They were the anti-Braves.

That the Phils came within two wins of raising another championship banner anyway has to be credited mostly to GM Ruben Amaro Jr., whose late July trade for Cliff Lee and bargain-price signing of Pedro Martinez saved the rotation and who gave the bullpen a crucial boost in the person of Chan Ho Park. Manager Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee, who got great work from J.A. Happ and small but important contributions from the likes of Antonio Bastardo, Rodrigo Lopez, Tyler Walker and Kyle Kendrick over the course of the year, deserve kudos as well.

It's unclear what, if anything, this means for the future. Certainly there's every reason to hope Hamels will return to form, and Lidge and Romero seem decent bets to rebound from their miserable 2009 campaigns even if neither recaptures the heights of '08. Myers is a free agent who might or might not be back; Moyer will turn 47 this month and will be attempting to rebound from a fairly severe injury. But if you'd tried to sell the story eight months ago that the 2009 Phils would see five of their top six pitchers from the championship run essentially melt down, yet still win the pennant and take the World Series to six games, you likely would have had few believers.

Belated Words on the 27th World Championship Victory...

CrazyYankeeChick — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 00:17:43 -0000

I wrote this when I finally got out of bed circa 2:30 in the afternoon.

I'm still trying to wrap my head around it.

My fellow crazies and I were out celebrating the World Series Championship of the New York Yankees up until about 7am. None of us wanted the night to end.

Ball game over. World Series over. Baseball season over.

Listening to asinine hating anti-fans drop the "who's won more in this century" over.

Having to hear people say they "can't wait til the Yankees choke" over.

First year at new stadium over.

Nine years without a ring over.

Ball game over. The Yankees win.

What a night. The hours and day(s) leading up to last night were saturated with critics attacking Girardi for pitching AJ Burnett in Game 5 because it meant not only would Andy Pettitte have to go on short rest for Game 6, but CC Sabathia would have to pitch his 2nd short-rested game in a row, should a Game 7 be needed.

Funny, though, how these naysayers were oddly silent up until the point AJ started getting shelled. THEN it was a fatal flaw. THEN Girardi was a moron. And all I heard about for all of Monday night through 8pm last night was how that move will change the face of the series, and there's no way Andy will be able to go on 3 days rest, and Girardi should be fired, etc.

The consensus was that if the Yankees win the World Series, it was be in spite of Girardi, not because of him. I really couldn't disagree more on this one. And this is coming from someone who spend many a game banging her head against the computer, screaming to no one in particular that Girardi is an idiot for not using [fill in name of bullpen reliever who wouldn't have let up runs, in my estimation].

My dad even said, "Kris, I could have won a championship with that team. Look at them."

True. But how much different are they from any other one of their teams in the last 5 years? What about when they got Randy Johnson? And Carl Pavano? A-Rod? Those were big name guys, and they never brought us to a title.

Something was different this year. There was no Torre doing ungodly things to his pitching staff's arms. There a case study in "Eff you, critics" performance from A-Rod. A relatively steadfast batting order that wasn't seemingly determined by picking names out of a batting helmet. Patience at the plate (cough...Cano...cough).

I don't think it's easy to manage a club no matter how good they are. And the fact that Girardi took this team through the World Series is not something that should be trivialized. He didn't always do thing we agreed with, but his strategy of a quilted motley crew of relievers to support precarious starter situations, worked out beautifully.

The Yankees were able to ride a 3-man rotation through the entire playoffs, all 3 of them going on short rest at some point (some faring better than others). And it worked out. It %&#@E worked out. The New York Yankees are Kings of the World once again.

And my God, it feels good.

The Phillies were good, and put up a good fight, so much so that there was even talk of Chase Utley getting World Series MVP even if the Phils didn't win. (Of course, you can't really make that argument when a guy on the winning team somehow manages to knock in 6 ribbies in one game to tie the World Series record. Thank you, Hideki.)

Ryan Howard was abysmal all series, save one long ball he knocked off Petitte last night to bring the score to 7-3. It was too little too late though, and the Phils weren't able to overcome that kind of damage in a rocking stadium filled to the rafters with fans salivating for, in the words of Cole Hamels, "it all to be over with."

Pedro Martinez was no one where near as sharp as he was when he dueled with AJ Burnett in Game 2. (And of course, now the scapegoat blame gets applied to Charlie Manuel for not taking Pedro out when Hideki came to the plate with bases loaded in the 3rd, with the lead only 4-1.)

The Phils scored on a sac fly by Shane Victorino, who I was half hoping would enter the game with a bloody batting glove and give the Fox announcers something to distract themselves away from hating on the Yankees for 2 seconds.

But the Yankees were doing what they do best, which was knocking the ball all over the park. Even the foul balls were long shots, even the outs were well hit liners. This is to be expected, perhaps, when Pedro is throwing 87 mph fastballs.

When Hideki's 2-strike, 2-out, single put the score at 4-1, I was a little more relaxed, but I never stopped compulsively flicking at my hat brim and pacing and grinding my teeth, until he hit a 2-run double in the bottom of the 5th to make it 7-1, following Mark Teixeira's base hit that had scored Jeter.

A 6-run lead isn't any guarantee, but it was comfortable. And that was when we all started to let it prematurely sink in. The Yankees were going to be World Champions soon.

I think this implosion from good old Petey should be indicative of how short rest or normal rest, an erratic pitcher in his 30s isn't going to always be lights out. I don't think AJ was knocked around on Monday because he wasn't well rested. I think he was beat up because he's AJ Burnett, and that's what he does. He surprises us with either Good AJ or Bad AJ, and let's be honest, we all knew this when we bought him, so let's not act so surprised when he gets chased early.

Pedro gave a mirror image performance of that, but it was a little more untimely than AJ's crap outing. If I were a Phillies fan, I'd point fingers directly at the decision to pitch Pedro in Yankee Stadium for Game 2, when they should have pitched him at home.

And more significantly, the decision to pitch Pedro in Yankee Stadium for an elimination game!! I guess they didn't have much choice in the matter, but if Cliff Lee had pitched instead of Joe Blanton on Sunday, they wouldn't have been in that situation in the first place.

(Eh, whatever. Like I care about what the Phillies do with the pitchers.The Yankees just won the World Series. I got all day today to read every last word written about the game, and then all day tomorrow to get lost in the masses of people tumbling into the Canyon of Heroes.)

With 2 outs in the top of the 9th, the bar packed wall to wall, the stadium deafening with every pitch Mariano Rivera threw that made the title that much closer...it started to feel like New Year's Eve. Well, if the year lasted 9 years.

All of us expectantly waiting for the ball to drop, so to speak. All of us exploding in raucous, bleary eyed, delirious, euphoric celebration when it did.

"New York, New York" blared through the streets. Then "We are the Champions." "Empire State of Mind." The text message congratulations. The shots. The dancing. The screaming. The hugging. It was heaven. It still is.

I've kept my mouth shut about retaliating against all the shit-talkers that tried their damnedest to curse the Yankees, who tried to rain on our playoff parade. I've limited my jabs to half-kidding trash talking towards our opponents.

But I wrote in Game 5 postmortem:

If someone makes a point to go out of his or her way to poke the bear, unprovoked, then there's the exception to the rule. Because if the Yankees should end up winning the World Series this year, I will make a pit stop before riding off into the sunset, to dole out heaps of karma three-fold.

Instead of just letting us enjoy the fact our team was playing in the World Series, and that we were really happy and excited about it, NYC was teeming with assholes that wanted us to be as miserable as them. They were unrelenting in their banal insults, their pathetic and predictable Yankee shots.

Maybe we couldn't be bothered, or maybe a part of us was secretly scared that if we responded in kind, that we'd be putting ourselves in grave danger should the Yankees happen to choke it away.

Whatever the reason, it's immaterial now. BECAUSE WE WON.

Everyone out there with your "I can't wait to see them blow it the ALDS" and the "I can't wait til they choke against the Angels" or "I can't wait to see Pettitte get lit up on short rest" etc etc etc... HOPE YOU ENJOY THE NEXT FEW DAYS OF SEEING NOTHING BUT YANKEE COVERAGE.

And I hope your commute to work is significantly screwed up because of the ticker tape parade.

And until the 2010 World Series, the Yankees are the World Champions. So every time you see a fan walking down the street with a Yankee hat on, and your knee jerk reaction is to say something negative, just remember: The Yankees won. And you're out of material.

The Yankees did it. They won their 27th championship, the most of any team in any sport. In the first year in their new stadium, they christened their home with champagne and victory...just as they did to their last stadium, when they won the World Series in its inaugural season in 1923.

Congratulations, Yankees. Thank for you bringing the trophy back to where it belongs.

Thank you for everything that you've given your fans this season.

Thank you for #27.

-CYC