SB Nation - Jon Lieber

Another Wang Decision

jscape2000 — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 13:08:32 -0000

As for Chien-Ming Wang, his agent, Alan Nero, said surgeon James Andrews cleared the righty to throw beginning on Dec. 1, and that he could be ready by mid-April or early May to pitch in regular-season games after shoulder surgery.

However, Yankee doctors have not seen Wang and the team plans on non-tendering the righty rather than risk paying a minimum of $4 million for him in 2010. The Yanks will then consider if he is worth offering a low-base, incentive-laden contract to return.

Early May is the earliest estimate I've heard.

Obviously, I've never sat in on an arbitration, but Wang has gone 9-8 with a 5.78 ERA and 1.53 WHIP in 137 IP over the last 2 seasons. I doubt he would make much more than the minimum.

Unless the Yanks think that Wang will sign a two year deal or a one year with an option (like Jon Lieber and Sergio Mitre), the difference of a couple million dollars seems triffling.

The Yankee brass has always seemed to undervalue Wang, taking him year to year rather than working out a long term deal like they did for Robbie Cano.

New York Yankees notes: Nick Swisher, Phil Hughes and more

Ed Valentine — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 13:59:28 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

New York Yankees' Nick Swisher reacts after flying out to end the ninth inning of Game 5 of the American League Championship baseball series against the Los Angeles Angels Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009, in Anaheim, Calif. The Angels won 7-6.

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Here are a few stories around the Yankee Universe for you to ponder while waiting to see if there will be baseball tonight at Yankee Stadium.

For my part, I sure hope so. I want the Yankees to finish off the Angels tonight, so I don't have to flip between the Yankees-Angels and the NFL game between my Giants and the Arizona Cardinals Sunday night.

What to do about Nick Swisher?

So, what should the Yankees do about the slumping Nick Swisher? If he could have gotten a 9th-inning hit Thursday the Yankees would likely already be in the World Series. Swisher is now just 3-for-29 (.103) in the post-season.

Steve Politi says Swisher has to sit.

How many more at-bats can manager Joe Girardi possibly give this guy to turn it around?

Girardi has shown faith in his right fielder, rewarding his 29-home run, 82-RBI regular season. He has been a popular figure in the loosey-goosey clubhouse, one of the reasons the Yankees went from button-down to pie-in-the-face during this 103-win season.

"Guys are going to struggle during the course of the season and you just don’t give up on a guy if he is struggling because the flip side of that is they are due to get hot," Girardi said before Game 5. "We feel good about Swish."

But everything has his limits, and now the manager should play somebody else — anybody else — to try a different look. Put in Brett Gardner. He might not be an upgrade, but could he possibly be worse?

Because it is just not happening for Swisher.

Girardi has indicated he might just do that. Or, he might change the batting order. Or, he might do nothing.

"We'll sleep on it, and we'll make a decision what we're going to do," Girardi said Friday. "But Swisher is a good player and Swisher has done a lot of good things for us this year. And you look at the matchup against [Angels Game 6 starter Joe] Saunders -- he's had some hits off of Saunders.

"It's not just one guy necessarily that you think about," Girardi said. "You think about where you might put the parts. Do you flip-flop guys? I don't ever really rush into decisions, because the one thing about the playoffs is you usually have a lot of time to think about it."

My take: I don't necessarily agree with it, but I think you are going to see Swisher in the lineup against Angels' left-hander Joe Saunders. If Swisher sits, my guess is it will be Jerry Hairston in the lineup rather than Brett Gardner, simply because he hits right-handed.

Are you worried about the bridge to Mo?

Phil Hughes (nine hits in 4 2/3 innings, and a 5.79 ERA) and Joba Chamberlain (seven hits in 2 2/3 innings)have not been the lights out bridge to Mariano Rivera the Yanks hoped for this post-season.

Pitching coach Dave Eiland said the Yankees will go with what got them to this point.

"You trust it, and you go with what got you here," Eiland said. "Don't change now. We've won, what, 109 games including the postseason? We are not going to change anything."

Other Stuff

2004? Columnist reminds that Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia are not Jon Lieber and Kevin Brown.
Cracks Emerge in Concrete Ramps at New Yankee Stadium
Rivera locks down Sporting News honors
Pedro Martinez hoping for another shot at Yankees.

Wait, so how exactly is this anything like 2004?

CrazyYankeeChick — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:32:45 -0000

Yeah, I'm just not seeing it...

View full size photo »

The 2009 ALCS and 2004 ALCS are practically mirror images of each other.

Indistinguishable.

Talk about carbon copies! I haven't seen this level of uncanny similarity since watching Woody Harrelson and Wesley Snipes in White Men Can't Jump.

Yeah, that's about how alike these two series are.

If I have to read one more thinly veiled (or downright overt, even) suggestion that the 2009 ALCS is "2004 all over again," I may spoon out my eyeballs with my bare hands without skipping a beat.

I'm sorry, HOW exactly is this ANYTHING like 2004?

As much as it pains me to even think about that dark time in my life, I'm going to bite the bullet for the sake of putting an end to this ridiculous Y2K-like mass hysteria and unfounded panic.

Let's consider the elements that shaped the 2004 mess:

The Greatest Rivalry in Sports
Yankees took 3-0 lead
Red Sox hadn't beat the Yankees since the dawn of time
A-Rod's empty performance
Red Sox were the favorite entering series
Yankees pitching: Mike Mussina, Jon Lieber, Javier Vasquez, El Duque, Esteban Loaiza, Kevin Brown
Yankees Big Bats: Miguel Cairo, Derek Jeter, Hideki Matsui, Gary Sheffield (all below .300)

And in 2009?

Not the greatest rivalry, or even a rivalry at all
Yankees went up 2-0. Then 2-1. Then 3-1. Then 3-2.
Yankees haven't beaten the Angels since the dawn of time
A-Rod's immortal-like production and clutchness
Yankees were favorite entering series
Yankees pitching: CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Andy Pettitte
Yankees Big Bats: Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Hideki Matsui

Not only is 2009 not that similar to 2004, but it's arguably the polar OPPOSITE of it. The Yankees aren't squandering away a swift 3-0 lead. The past 5 games have been back and forth, in terms of series record.

If this is considered to be a repeat of 2004, then I have to assume that anytime the Yankees lose a single game in the postseason, it's going to be linked to a Dave Roberts steal clip.

When the Angels lose tomorrow, I expect to read volumes of column inches asserting the blatant redux of the 1986 ALCS. Because, you know, they're practically one in the same. The Angels lost that one. They're going to lose this one. And apparently, that's about all the matching elements you need these days, to substantiate a cross-season comparison.

Next thing you know, they're gonna start telling me Papelbon and Mo are identical closers! Oh, wait...

Pay no attention to this 2004 drivel, Yankee fans. It's the hollow propaganda of haters everywhere.

And as George Bernard Shaw said, "Hatred is the coward's revenge for being intimidated."

-CYC

The Cruelest Month (revised)

dajafi — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 22:41:10 -0000

More photos » by H. Rumph Jr - AP

Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino and Cole Hamels are all among the Phillies whose career numbers for the month of June badly lag their overall production. (AP Photo/H. Rumph Jr.)

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I just got back very late last night from a two-week trip to Australia and Japan, to find that the Phillies had dropped the first two games of their series against the Toronto Blue Jays; this afternoon, I had the dubious pleasure of watching most of the finale, which the team also lost. The result wasn't surprising, as the Phillies have stunk on ice in interleague play pretty much since the outset of Bud Selig's experiment more than a decade ago. But as others pointed out here and on Back She Goes!, the problem might not be interleague so much as the mysterious yet consistent bad vibes that seem to follow Charlie Manuel's team every time the calendar turns to June.

Actually, the Phils haven't been a complete disaster in the season's third month; since the start of Manuel's tenure, they have a collective 59-66 (.472) record in June, which certainly isn't good but is hardly the stuff of baseball nightmares. It just looks crappy compared to the club's overall 390-322 (.548) mark since the start of the 2005 season. And it's actually slightly worse than the team's cumulative record in April (57-63, .475), usually considered the roughest month for the team. Add that June has been the team's worst month in three of the last four seasons, including this one, and has seen more serious injuries than any other month, and you start to get the idea.

So join me, if you dare, for a brief tour of the last five Junes--the true cruelest month for the Manuel-era Phillies.

2005: 15-12 (.556), 135 runs scored/135 runs against. Okay, this doesn't look too bad... until you consider that the month began with the team on an 11-1 streak that actually started on May 31--the day I got married, as it happened. Then from June 14-30, the Phillies went 4-11 and lost five straight series—three in interleague play and two against the Mets. These included the notorious road interleague series at Seattle and Oakland, in which the Phils lost four of six while playing the likes of Tomas Perez and Ramon Martinez at first place as an injured Jim Thome DH’d. Meanwhile, a young slugger named Ryan Howard continued to tear up the International League. Notable transactions in June 2005 included the highly questionable trade of Placido Polanco to Detroit for Ugueth Urbina and Ramon Martinez, as well as a release and re-signing of Amaury Telemaco. Appropriately enough, Thome’s season (and, as it turned out, his Phillies career) ended on June 30 after he went 0-10 in three games against the Mets. The team lost five straight, tied for its worst losing streak of the 2005 season, from June 23-28.

2006: 9-18 (.333), 120/165. The Phillies began June two games over .500 and in striking distance of the Mets in the NL East. And they actually fared pretty well for the first week of the month, winning five of seven after sweeping Arizona… and then the bottom fell out, as they lost three of four to the Nationals and were swept at home by the Mets to fall 9.5 games back and essentially exit the division race. But things got even worse as interleague began: series losses at home to the still-awful Devil Rays and Yankees, the seemingly annual sweep by Boston, and two more series losses at Baltimore and Toronto. Though the team eventually recovered to surge back into the division race, they ultimately fell short of a playoff spot—largely because of the hole they dug for themselves back in June. The month included the signing and sole Phillies appearance (which, not coincidentally, proved to be the last career appearance) of pitcher Adam Bernero. as well as the pickup of Rick White and the trade of Daniel Haigwood to Texas for Fabio "Model Dictator" Castro. Randy Wolf was lost for the season after going six innings against the Brewers on June 11. The Phillies’ worst losing streak of the year, seven games, ran from June 20-28.

2007: 15-13 (.536), 143/166. The outlier, in which the Phils put up a winning record despite getting badly outscored for the month. June began in characteristic fashion, with a 13-0 loss to the Giants at home, but afterward things picked up. They even did fairly well in interleague play by Phillies standards (6-6), albeit against the weak-sister AL Central. The month did end with three straight losses to the Mets, including the major-league debut of J.A. Happ. Notable transactions included one awful free-agent signing (Jose Mesa) and one very good one (J.C. Romero). The bad June injury of 2007? Jon Lieber, who blew out his knee at Cleveland on June 20, two starts after throwing a complete-game shutout at Kansas City. Freddy Garcia was also lost for the year; on the plus side, Kyle Kendrick was recalled to replace him.

2008: 12-14 (.462), 112/101. The Phils’ sole losing month (not including March, in which they played one game and lost) in their championship season. Again, it wasn’t until the second week of June that things went south; through June 13, the team had a 9-3 record for the month, culminating with a 20-2 blowout of the Carindals in St. Louis that marked the eighth time in 53 games that the team had scored in double digits (and their second 20-run performance in 17 games). It was also the last time the Phils would crack 10 runs until July 26; they’d score 12 more the next day, and that was it for double-digits in 2008. After June 13, the Phils scored 47 runs in their 14 remaining games during the month (an average of 3.4), and were held to two runs or fewer in eight of those games; through their first 69 games, they had scored 373 runs (an average of 5.4), and been held to two or fewer just 13 times. Probably not coincidentally, Chase Utley's marked offensive falloff began in mid-June; it's likely that he sustained the hip injury that bedeviled him through the remainder of 2008 around that time. The team had its worst losing streak of the season (six games) from June 17-24.

2009 (through June 18): 8-8 (.500), 81/76. Again, it’s tough to differentiate between the Phillies’ interleague struggles and their general pattern of sucking in June; this year, the team’s inexplicable struggles at home (8-18 against all non-Nationals opponents) adds another layer to the story. The just-concluded 1-5 stretch against Boston and Toronto made this June look much worse than it did a week ago; on the other hand, the month already has seen Brad Lidge, Scott Eyre and most recently Raul Ibanez to the disabled list, and Ryan Howard has dropped down his annual rabbit hole with 27 strikeouts and a .232 average in 69 June at-bats.

The good news? The team has just ten games left this month, around off-days on the 22^nd and 29^th. And maybe the rain will keep up.

Offseason 2008-09: Where The Cubs Stand And Where They Could Go

Al — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 14:18:51 -0000

With two deals made yesterday -- Matt Holliday to the A's, and Scott Olsen and Josh Willingham to the Nationals, and Jake Peavy... still a Padre a this writing, the trade market appears to be heating up, and on Thursday, declared free agents will be eligible to sign with any team.

One interesting development overnight was the Padres' withdrawal of a $4 million offer to Trevor Hoffman. Granted, Hoffman is 41 and didn't have such a good year in 2008, but he is a franchise icon and that offer was about half what he made in '08. Whether this is another part of San Diego's cost-cutting in the wake of owner John Moores' costly divorce, or whether it's a harbinger of things to come -- will teams start to rein in spending because of the current economic crisis? -- remains to be seen.

What seems clear is that the Cubs aren't going to be major players in the free agent market. Much as we might like to see CC Sabathia in blue pinstripes, it's not going to happen. The only free agents the Cubs are likely to sign are their own -- Ryan Dempster, Kerry Wood and Henry Blanco, I believe, will all eventually re-up. Daryle Ward may not be back, and Chad Fox and Jon Lieber -- well, yes, they filed, but you didn't really expect to see them as Cubs again, did you?

So instead, Jim Hendry is going to have to get creative. With the Marlins dealing Willingham, does that mean Jeremy Hermida is off the market? I would argue that the Cubs might be able to get him with a package that could include Felix Pie and Sean Marshall. This is pure speculation on my part, and likely they'd have to put another prospect in such a deal, but Pie would be an immediate starter in Florida and Marshall would replace the traded Scott Olsen in the Marlins' rotation.

With Hermida on board and Kosuke Fukudome likely then moving to CF as a platoon partner for Reed Johnson, that would complete the Cubs' starting outfield for 2009. I would still like to see the Cubs sign Kevin Millar to back up LF, RF and 1B... and to be that clubhouse presence that was missing, somehow, during the disastrous 2008 postseason. Yes, I am well aware that Millar is getting on in years and didn't have a very good offensive season in 2008 (despite hitting 20 HR in 531 AB and drawing 71 walks, which would have ranked among the Cubs' team leaders). The Cubs wouldn't be asking Millar to start -- just back up, and provide the looseness that any winning clubhouse needs. Since Hermida would be the starting LH bat in RF, having Millar replace Daryle Ward as the #1 pinch-hitter would be acceptable. At one time I advocated trading Derrek Lee, but after seeing some of the discussions here which mentioned that his neck and back problems may have been the cause of his power dropoff, I would think that an offseason's rest would get him back into shape. He'll probably never have a year like he had in 2005, but even if he could get back to his 2004 level (.860 OPS), that'd be just fine.

With Sean Marshall gone, the Cubs would need another pitcher to perform the role that Marshall did quite well last year -- start occasionally and be a long reliever... that is, if Lou even knows how to use a long reliever, something he failed to do in many situations that called for it. There are some mid-range starting pitcher free agents that could fill this role without costing a fortune: Randy Wolf, Mark Hendrickson, or even Freddy Garcia, who started for Lou for several years in Seattle and who appeared recovered from his arm troubles in pitching five strong innings in that September 29 Tigers/White Sox makeup game at the Cell.

Filling the slot being vacated by the (presumably) departed Bob Howry should be fairly simple to do, either via someone on this list of free-agent relievers (would you take a chance on bringing back some former Cubs like Juan Cruz or Kyle Farnsworth?) or perhaps, by someone who will come out of spring training and surprise. There seems to be someone like that virtually every year. Or maybe Michael Wuertz will finally fulfill the promise that has had him as part of the Cubs' bullpen for the last five seasons.

The rest of the team seems fairly well set; regardless of whether you agree with him or not, Lou likes Ryan Theriot and he will be the starting SS, unless there's someone who could come in cheaply to replace him. One possibility could be Juan Uribe -- and if Uribe didn't start, he could capably back up all three infield positions. Ronny Cedeno did a decent job as a backup in 2008, and if he came into 2009 in the same role, I think we could live with it. Another possibility is Nate Spears, who the Cubs acquired almost as an afterthought from the Orioles in the Corey Patterson deal three years ago. Spears will be 24 in May, had an .832 OPS in Double-A last year and as of today is replicating that (.827) in the Arizona Fall League. He hits lefthanded and has a good glove. Spears isn't on the 40-man roster, which now stands at 39, but that can be easily remedied.

The bottom line is that I don't think the Cubs are getting Jake Peavy, and that's fine with me. Peavy's numbers outside of Petco don't scream "ace" to me, and his contract, four years' worth, would hamstring the team in an era when some here are screaming for Hendry to dump some of the backloaded deals he's handed out like Halloween candy over the last couple of years. The Cubs ought to also look hard at whoever is available in the Rule 5 draft and also at the non-tender list when it comes out in the middle of December.

As I said last time I posted on this topic, this team won 97 games a year ago. There's no need to blow it up and start over. Tweaking, upgrading the bench and bullpen, and making sure the starting rotation has backups in case of injury, are the most important things.

For those of you screaming and yelling about the alleged possibility that Bud Selig is going to "install" John Canning as Cubs owner, I refer you to this November 7 article from the Sun-Times:

Bidders for the team include Mark Cuban, owner of the Dallas Mavericks and the cable channel HDNet, and Thomas Ricketts, president of corporate bond dealer Incapital LLC. An insider said Ricketts, whose family wealth derives from the TD Ameritrade brokerage, currently has the inside track.

Cuban has a colorful reputation and drinks beer in the stands with the fans, but the source said the credit drought has hurt his chances. "Whatever the price for the Cubs, he was only going to put in $100 million of his own money," the source said.

And that last part is why Cuban might be out, not any supposed enmity from Bud Selig and/or Jerry Reinsdorf. I agree with the article: if the sale is consummated soon, it'll be the Ricketts group. But given the state of the economy, who knows?

All A-Loney: Cubs Lose Game 1 To Dodgers 7-2

Al — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 13:20:21 -0000

Here's the very first thing I want all of you to remember this morning, as fans: do NOT give in to the temptation to think, "Here we go again!"

There are two things that truly bothered me about the Cubs' truly awful 7-2 loss to the Dodgers last night.

First, it didn't feel like a playoff game -- not in the least. There wasn't the usual electricity you feel in the stands even before the game. Now, maybe you could chalk this up to the odd starting time, but that's not really an excuse; the park was filled at the first pitch, but there seemed no excitement, no buzz, no anticipation, no sense that this wasn't just another game on, say, May 1 instead of October 1. Even after Mark DeRosa's windblown homer that gave the Cubs a 2-0 lead, there wasn't the hiked-up level of excitement you'd expect. The scoreboard operators must have figured it was a regular-season game, too, because they kept adjusting everyone's batting average each at-bat as if their previous AB in the game had been just another regular-season AB. There also wasn't any real buzz on the street, although the city set up barricades on Waveland and Sheffield, expecting people to be sitting outside -- there weren't many more than the usual crowd on Waveland during the game. One guy spent several innings writing "GO CUBS GO" in huge letters in chalk on the street, but that was about it for anything unusual.

Second, this one's on Lou. Seriously -- if you have two pitchers (Sean Marshall and Jason Marquis) who are starters or pitchers used to going extended periods, on the roster for the specific purpose of using them in long relief, why wouldn't you use them that way on a night when it was clear that your starter had absolutely no command? This is something Lou did all year during the time when he had Jon Lieber in the bullpen -- refusing to use Lieber in the very long-relief situations that he was specifically on the roster to fill.

Ryan Dempster, who is a standup guy (and ditch the full beard, Ryan -- it looks awful), would probably be the first to tell you that he sucked last night. Part of the problem was home plate umpire Dale Scott's bizarre strike zone -- pitches that appeared right down the middle were called balls, while breaking stuff in the dirt got called as strikes -- which might have made Dempster try to adjust, getting him out of his normal rhythm and as the night went on, generating more and more pitches out of the zone (57 balls out of 109 pitches).

But Lou stuck with him. And as it turned out, probably two batters too long. After Dempster walked Manny Ramirez, his fifth free pass of the game, even though the Cubs still had a 2-0 lead at the time, Lou should have yanked him, especially with the lefthanded hitting Andre Ethier and James Loney coming up next. Marshall was ready to go and there were two out; we figured maybe Lou had fallen asleep in the cold. Even giving Lou the benefit of the doubt because of his decades of experience, once Ethier walked, loading the bases, Marshall should have been in there.

So this one's on you, Lou. You've done great things for this franchise -- but not last night. It didn't help that Marshall, Jeff Samardzija and Marquis all allowed single runs in their relief work; this turned a possibly workable 4-2 deficit into a 7-2 blowout, the exclamation point of which was Greg Maddux' appearance in the 9th inning. Maddux, the only Dodger who got cheers on pregame introduction (loud boos were reserved for LA's other ex-Cubs, Nomar Garciaparra and Juan Pierre), received only tepid applause when introduced to begin the 9th, possibly the last time Cub fans will see him pitch in Wrigley Field.

The other culprits are the highly-paid Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez, who vanished in last year's division series and who went a combined 1-for-9 last night. Frankly, I was surprised any balls went out of the yard last night with the wind blowing in the way it was; DeRosa's blast was actually blown out because the wind was sort of blowing across from center to right field; the other homers cut through the teeth of the wind, including Manny's... and that one's on Lou, too, because none of us could believe he left Marshall in to pitch to Manny, among the biggest mismatches I've ever seen in a playoff game. Incidentally, perhaps only funny moment last night was provided by Manny; he threw the warmup ball into the LF bleachers just below us going into the bottom of the 9th. It was promptly flung back on the field; Manny ducked (the ball wasn't really that close to him). If you're going to the game and thinking about doing this -- don't. The thrower was promptly ejected, because throwing anything but a HR ball back isn't allowed.

So. What have the Cubs lost here? Not the series -- there's still time, although it's at a premium in a short series. The Dodgers swiped home-field advantage, essentially; the Cubs can steal it back by winning the next two games. I note that the best team in baseball, the Angels, also lost their first game at home to the Red Sox. Carlos Zambrano -- you've got to be on your game tonight. No histrionics, no stomping around, no bat-breaking, just your best stuff, like you had on September 14 in Milwaukee.

Finally, a word about the game threads. I have heard from a few people telling me how nasty it got in there. I do understand frustration and wanting to "get it out". All I ask is that you keep the profanity down and most importantly, don't attack others.

This isn't 2003 or 2007 or any of the other years where the Cubs failed. Remember what all of us have been saying, almost all year? This feels different; this team is different. They've come back from crushing defeats before. There is a lot of baseball still to be played by the Chicago Cubs in 2008. Onward, because the best IS yet to come.

Falling Slowly: Cubs 2, Reds 10

Al — Sat, 06 Sep 2008 13:00:06 -0000

well you have suffered enough
and warred with yourself
it's time that you've won

take this sinking boat
and point it home
we've still got time
raise your hopeful voice
you had the choice
you've made it now

I happened to be out last night for part of last night's game and heard that song, the hauntingly beautiful ballad sung by Glen Hansard and Markéta Irglová from the movie "Once", which, incidentally, if you haven't seen, you should.

Fits, doesn't it? What more can be said about the Cubs' sixth straight loss, 10-2 to the Reds?

Doom & gloom thinking: for those of you who weren't around in 1969, this is how it felt. Note that I am in no way comparing the two teams or the two situations -- these Cubs are, after all, still four games in first place and in the driver's seat; but the feeling I have as a fan is the same. Feels like they'll never win again, although intellectually you know that isn't true.

Positive thinking: it also felt this way in 1984, when the Cubs, after running up a huge (9.5 game) lead in mid-September, lost five in a row by a combined score of 41-17 and looked just about as bad as they do now. They righted the ship by sweeping a doubleheader in St. Louis and went on to clinch the division.

More positive thinking: the last time the Cubs lost a game by eight runs and looked really bad doing it (13-5 to Washington on August 22), they followed it with a seven-game winning streak.

Right now I'd settle for one win; Alfonso Soriano put it best:

"We've struggled the last week, the last five, six games," Alfonso Soriano said. "We have to figure out how to get out of this. I know it's going to come. Good teams get out of slumps. When we come back, we'll be better.

"We just have to win one game," Soriano said. "That's all it takes. One game. It's very sad. Everybody's not happy."

"Everybody's not happy". Truer words were never spoken. There's not much point in recapping the play from last night's disaster. Ted Lilly got hit hard. Jon Lieber, whose ERA in GABP this season is now 20.25 (nine earned runs in four innings, with five homers allowed), got crushed. The only Cub who had a good night was Koyie Hill, who singled and doubled and drove in a run.

Positive thinking: Angel Guzman and Bob Howry threw scoreless innings. Guzman could be a real big help this month.

Seriously. What more can you say about a game where the manager and the first base coach got lost driving from Chicago to Cincinnati? You couldn't make this up:

"Matty was driving," [Lou] Piniella said, "but we actually 'Googled' the trip, and we were 'Googled' to East Liverpool, Pa. Who in the heck knows? On the sheet we had, it was 'Cincinnati to Liverpool.' I was thinking, I was in Cincinnati three years, and I didn't remember a 'Liverpool' around the area."

At that, you can only smile and laugh through your tears, right? Relax this afternoon, shake it off as the players will. This team is too good to have this last more than rightfreakingnow. They'll come out of it.

Don't Panic: Cubs 7, Astros 9

Al — Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:28:09 -0000

Really. Don't. Yes, the Cubs lost their fourth in a row, 9-7 to the Astros in 11 innings last night, the first time they've lost that many in a row at home since May 20-June 2, 2007 (one game to the White Sox, then a road trip, then six more home losses to Florida and Atlanta), ending on the day Lou had his famous hat-throwing tirade with umpire Mark Wegner in a loss to the Braves.

But. Thanks to the Mets' extra-inning win over the Brewers, the Cubs' lead stays at 4.5 games and the magic number was reduced to 20. Now, I did say I'd post it here once it got to 20, but it just doesn't feel right to do that after a loss like last night's. Win tonight, right the ship, and the number will appear on the right sidebar tomorrow.

Some are going to try to make comparisons between this losing streak -- the second four-game streak of the season -- and what happened to the 2004 Cubs in the final week, when they self-destructed while in the driver's seat to the wild card. Nothing of the sort is true. That dysfunctional team was too busy calling the broadcast booth and having poor managerial decisions made to win. The personnel is different -- only four players remain (Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Carlos Zambrano and Kerry Wood) and so is the manager.

What's happening to the Cubs this week is, I think, more comparable to what happened to the 2005 White Sox. That team was 87-51 on September 7 with a 9.5 game lead in the AL Central. With 24 games to go they had reduced their division magic number to 14. They then proceeded to lose... four in a row, and ten of 14, reducing their division lead to 1.5 games before righting their ship and ... well, you know what they did that October. The other difference is that when the Sox got cold, their pursuers, the Indians, suddenly were the hottest team in baseball -- from Sept. 5, 2005 through Sept. 24, they went 17-2, before dropping six of their last seven. You could also look at the 2006 Cardinals, who everyone remembers as "just" squeaking into the postseason with a mediocre 83-78 record. But they were 80-69 with a 7 game lead and a magic number of six with 13 games left. They lost seven in a row and eight of nine, reducing their lead to only a half game, before clinching on the last day of the season, and you all know what happened to them in the postseason.

I don't think the Cubs will have anything like that happen to them -- after all, the Brewers have also lost the first two games of their series at home -- so don't panic. I don't see the players or the manager panicking, and Lou says:

"Did anybody think this was going to be real easy?" Piniella said. "You didn't hear that from me all year, have you? We're in a stretch now where things aren't going our way. We've got to keep playing and keep battling and keep our confidence, and that's it."

Exactly. (Although, "You didn't hear that from me all year, have you?" isn't exactly the King's English.)

However.

I thought Lou made several dodgy managing decisions last night:

Sending Bob Howry out again in a "keep it close" situation -- and he once again failed, allowing five straight Astros to reach base. Four of them scored, making the Cubs' comeback task very difficult. Presuming the Cubs do right the ship and make the playoffs, I suspect Howry pitched himself off the postseason roster last night.
Double-switching Jim Edmonds, who had hit the game-tying HR in the 7th, out of the game, even though the Astros are virtually all right-handed out of their pen (save for Wesley Wright, who threw the 9th and 10th).
Asking Mark DeRosa to sacrifice in the bottom of the ninth. DeRo has 12 career sac's, two this year, and he's having a career year and had already homered last night. Let the guy hit!
Sending up Casey McGehee to pinch-hit in the 9th, making his major league debut in a critical situation like that. This led to a number of really lame "Casey At The Bat" jokes in our group, and had McGehee actually done something positive, lines from that poem might have led this recap. Instead... well, the Cubs' not-so-mighty Casey did exactly what the guy from Mudville did.
Leaving both Carlos Marmol (35 pitches) and Kerry Wood (40 pitches) in to throw two innings each, assuring that neither of them will be available tonight. This was only the third time all year that Wood threw two innings, and it showed when he gave up the game-winning HR to Geoff Blum... the first extra-inning HR he had hit in his career (well, except for the one in this World Series game, speaking as we were of the 2005 White Sox), and only the second HR Wood had allowed all year.

I think Lou has been great for this franchise in many ways. But last night, I think his moves, and non-moves, may have helped cost the Cubs the game. Jon Lieber sat on a folding chair through all four hours and seventeen minutes, finally warming up as the Cubs made one last valiant attempt to tie the game off Jose Valverde in the last of the 11th. Why wasn't Lieber in the game earlier? In long games like this, a guy like Lieber, who throws efficiently and doesn't walk people, could have thrown three innings, saving Wood for tonight.

It wasn't all Lou's fault. The Cubs hit into four double plays, killing rallies in the 1st, 2nd, 5th and 8th innings -- and one was Derrek Lee's 25th GIDP of the season, two short of Ron Santo's team record set in 1973 and five short of Brad Ausmus' NL record set in 2002. Those are two records I'd rather see Lee NOT set. And even with all that, the offense, which had been absent most of the homestand, pounded out fifteen hits (four homers) and drew eight walks and the Cubs survived three errors by Aramis Ramirez, who is normally about as sure-handed as they come (not one of the errors led to any Houston scoring).

The game was not sold out -- a large chunk of empty seats were in the LF lower deck, and the attendance of 39,846 was the smallest since May 30. Still, the crowd brought the season total to 3,014,301, the earliest date the Cubs have passed the 3 million mark. Many had left by the time Blum's HR was hit, a little after 11 pm Central time.

So. Where do we go from here? Z's arm is bothering him again and he'll have it checked out today, and that cannot be good news. Ryan Dempster has to step up tonight and stop the streak right here. And remember these words from an old '60s song:

And I think it's gonna be all right
Yeah, the worst is over now
The mornin' sun is shinin' like a red rubber ball -- "Red Rubber Ball", The Cyrkle