SB Nation - Eric Chavez

Bill James Handbook 2010 Projections

Al — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:11:01 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Will Magglio Ordonez be a Cub in 2010?

With a day off before game six of the ALCS -- and this series has the chance to go down in history as one of the better league championship series, having already produced at least three "instant classics", let's spend today looking toward next year.

As most of you probably already know, ACTA Sports publishes, each year, the Bill James Handbook, which in addition to having complete stats for all players active in 2009, publishes projections for the following season based on a projection system that they are continually tweaking to attempt to make it as accurate as possible.

The good folks at ACTA sent me an advance copy of the projection pages from the handbook, in which Bill James first runs down the projections they did for 2009; some of them were missed badly (mostly due to injury -- Eric Chavez and Troy Glaus, for example), others (Mark Teixeira, Orlando Hudson and Evan Longoria are the examples they give) were pretty darn close. They projected Mike Fontenot to have 9 HR and 43 RBI -- exactly what he did have, except they thought he'd hit .288, instead of the .236 he actually hit. For Geovany Soto, they missed badly -- the James system had him at .289, with a .499 SLG, 35 doubles, 23 HR and 89 RBI. I think you can imagine how much better the Cubs' season would have been if they had been right about Geo.

Continue after the jump to find some of their projections for 2010. I'm not only going to post a few of the projections for Cubs players that they sent me, but also some projections for some of the possible acquisitions we have discussed here at BCB, mainly some of the hitters that have been talked about in potential Milton Bradley deals. (Note: doing this doesn't mean I'm endorsing any particular acquisition, simply posting some numbers for players we've speculated about.)

Let's start with a few players we know are going to be Cubs in 2010:

Derrek Lee: .291/.378/.516, 40 doubles, 30 HR, 98 RBI, 94 runs
Aramis Ramirez: .292/.364/.514, 32 doubles, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 76 runs
Alfonso Soriano: .263/.320/.487, 35 doubles, 30 HR, 77 RBI, 85 runs
Kosuke Fukudome: .265/.365/.427, 39 doubles, 13 HR, 61 RBI, 76 runs
Geovany Soto: .273/.361/.469, 31 doubles, 20 HR, 79 RBI, 58 runs

Well. If those come true, the Cubs will score a ton of runs in 2010; that's 389 runs from just five players. Now, some of the starting rotation -- acknowledging, as James points out, that pitcher projections are done very differently than hitter projections due to the nature of pitching statistics:

Carlos Zambrano: 29 starts, 180 IP, 80 BB, 151 K, 12-8, 3.60
Ryan Dempster: 30 starts, 195 IP, 81 BB, 167 K, 12-10, 3.83
Ted Lilly: 25 starts, 170 IP, 56 BB, 144 K, 11-8, 3.76
Randy Wells: 30 starts, 188 IP, 60 BB, 147 K, 10-10, 4.16 
Carlos Marmol: 74 games, 73 IP, 45 BB, 84 K, 5-3, 3.45, 34 saves

And, apparently, give up a ton of runs and finish barely over .500. For some reason, they also project Wells to have 14 HBP and 19 other major league pitchers to have 15 or more -- that seems way off, considering that only one pitcher (Dave Bush) had 15 in 2009 and that Wells himself had only 6 HBP in the season just ended.

Now, here are some projections for some -- not all -- of the players we have discussed here as possible 2010 new Cubs, enough to get some discussion going:

Magglio Ordonez: .311/.376/.476, 32 doubles, 17 HR, 84 RBI, 70 runs
Curtis Granderson: .275/.353/.491, 30 doubles, 11 triples, 27 HR, 76 RBI, 106 runs, 17 SB
Michael Young: .299/.352/.443, 37 doubles, 16 HR, 80 RBI, 88 runs
Vernon Wells: .271/.327/.443, 33 doubles, 19 HR, 77 RBI, 77 runs
Aaron Rowand: .267/.327/.423, 37 doubles, 17 HR, 72 RBI, 74 runs
Carlos Beltran: .282/.375/.490, 33 doubles, 24 HR, 91 RBI, 92 runs
Mark DeRosa: .260/.335/.418, 27 doubles, 17 HR, 71 RBI, 76 runs

And, because you'll ask:

Milton Bradley: .276/.384/.450, 25 doubles, 18 HR, 64 RBI, 74 runs

James' system projects Bradley to play 133 games and have 467 AB; both of those would be the second-highest totals of his career. Note also that (presumably) the projections for players who the Cubs might acquire are based on their current home parks; playing with Wrigley Field as their home park would likely result in different projections.

There are complete projections in the book, which is available November 1 and which you can pre-order at the link at the top of this post -- we can discuss whatever players you want in this post, but I'm not going to spend a lot of time typing out projections for others, so don't ask. Full disclosure: ACTA Sports is sending me a copy of the book.

10/19 - There May Not Be Stupid Questions, But There Sure Are Some Stupid Answers

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 09:00:27 -0000

Debuting the header today, folks - still a work in progress, probably always will be. Any suggestions would be great.

Well, since that's the balloon boy of the post, let's move on to ACTUAL news.

Miguel Tejada Is Right Answer, But Not to Biggest Question - NESN.com

Put down the bottle, Mr. Beattie. Seriously, Tejada is probably plan G for Theo at the SS position, right before a 4 man outfield.

Big-Name Free Agents on Menu for Red Sox This Offseason - NESN.com

So many issues with this link - a few big ones:

Marco Scutaro: Along with Figgins, he's one of the best possible solutions to the Red Sox' shortstop dilemma. No one's paying attention, but Scutaro had a season to remember in 2009 -- with 35 doubles, 90 walks and an OBP of .379, he quickly vaulted to the top of the heap among the AL's best offensive shortstops. If the Red Sox can get Scutaro to scoot into Boston this winter, he'd be a huge boost to their offense.

1) They never mentioned Figgins helping the SS situation at all in his little blurb, most likely because he doesn't. 2) He's not one of the best possible solutions - he had a huge outlier of a career year, is getting close to NG's age cut-off, and he's not going to be cheap either. 3) I love when the Mainstream Media accuses us of ignorance, when they're the ones who decide what the majority of people hear and see. Besides, Scutaro's gotten quite a bit of recognition around the blogosphere.

Continuing the breakdown after the break, along with some more links.

Orlando Cabrera: If nothing else, there's sentimental value.

Johnny Damon: Perhaps he's Cabrera's opposite sentimentally, but the 24 homers and 36 doubles in 2009 are hard to ignore. If Jason Bay doesn't end up back in Boston, maybe Damon should.

Matt Holliday, Vladimir Guerrero, Carl Crawford, Magglio Ordonez, Jermaine Dye, Hideki Matsui and Bobby Abreu: All of a sudden, heavy-hitting corner outfielders are a dime a dozen. The Sox would love to have Bay back in Boston, but if they can't get a deal done, there are many contingency plans in the works. Any one of these guys would be a serviceable, if not ideal, replacement for Bay next season.

OCab - no "if."

Damon - get off the bottle.

Holliday - sure, if he's cheaper than Bay.

Vlad - MAYBE.

Crawford - if the Rays let him go, sign him immediately and then call up Friedman and laugh your asses off.

Maggs - hell no, we weren't going to take him in exchange for getting rid of Lugo, fool.

Dye - again, MAYBE, but only if there's no one else decent left.

Godzilla - short LF =/= no need for knees.

Abreu - sure, if he's WAY cheaper than Bay or Holliday and they're both gone.

NESN's reporters are really disappointing me of late - let's see if the independent press is less dumb.

The Blue Sox: Why Boston's Boys Are the Democrats Of Baseball Bleacher Report
Oh...kay... Umm... I'm going to move on, because I'd really rather not start up a flame war (although, I will say that it is weird to be a conservative* and like the Sox). The article is well-written, and describes the parallel better than most could. It also shows the weird connection that baseball and politics has always had.

*Yes, conservative. Not Republican. Right now, I need that difference to exist, because the GOP is being way too stupid for me to support them.

Looking back, looking forward - Chad Finn's Touching All The Bases

Mattingly may be ready to step up to the plate in managerial position - The Boston Globe

2. Stephen Drew, SS, Diamondbacks - He is expected to be shopped by the Diamondbacks, and there should be discussions with the Red Sox. Stephen is not the OPS machine that big brother J.D. is (.748 this season) but his other numbers weren’t bad for a shortstop: .261, 12 homers, 65 RBIs (only three fewer than J.D.). He also made only 11 errors. Who knows if hitting in a more patient lineup will help his OPS?

3. Victor Martinez, C, Red Sox - If he is the full-time, 100- to 110-game catcher next season, scouts believe he needs to shorten his release to be better at throwing out runners. Martinez, according to one scout, "long-arms his throws. It just takes him too long to get the ball down to second base. In order to combat that, you either have to have pitchers who can hold runners on base, which the Red Sox don’t, or have them do slide-steps and things of that nature, which they don’t like to do, either.’’ Gary Tuck supposedly is one of the best catching instructors in the game, so one would think he’d improve this with Martinez.

5. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, Padres - This is the fellow I suspect the Sox will go after. They would then move Kevin Youkilis to third, with Ortiz and Mike Lowell sharing DH duties. Gonzalez came very close to getting traded to the Mariners at the deadline in a five-for-one (Seattle wouldn’t give up a certain fifth minor leaguer). Only question is, do the Sox have enough players to give San Diego?

6. Ron Mahay, LHP, Twins - He would love to re-sign with the Twins but wouldn’t rule out a return to Boston, where he was a replacement outfielder in 1995 (.200 AB in 20 at-bats) and a pitcher in the late ’90s. "It was a long time ago, but I loved that place,’’ said Mahay. "I’ve played a lot of places in my career and lasted a long time, but I’ll never forget Boston.’’ Mahay appeared in 16 games for the Twins after being released by the Royals and had a 2.00 ERA. Among the hitters he dominates: Eric Chavez (0 for 17), Raul Ibanez (3 for 18, 9 K’s), Ichiro Suzuki (3 for 13), Joe Mauer (2 for 13), Justin Morneau (2 for 12), Alex Rodriguez (1 for 7), Jorge Posada (1 for 8), Ramirez (0 for 6).

Too tired to give this link the same service as the NESN one. Anyone else want to give it a shot?

Evan Longoria Is Channeling His Inner Eric Chavez

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 11 Oct 2009 20:00:22 -0000

More photos » by Reinhold Matay - AP

Browse more photos »

Evan Longoria has drawn comparisons to a lot of players: David Wright, Scott Rolen, Dick Allen (R.J.'s favorite), but after two seasons the player he is most trending toward is Eric Chavez. Before you take a gasp for air or head towards the Skyway bridge, remember that for many years before being perennially injured, Chavez was Evan Longoria.

	Age	PA	BA	OBP	SLG	XBH
Longoria	22-23	1179	0.277	0.355	0.528	137
Chavez	22-23	1173	0.283	0.346	0.519	128

via www.fangraphs.com

After less than 50 plate appearances as a 20 year old, Chavez's average slash line from 1999-2004 (ages 21-26) was .276/.354/.503, and during those years he racked up four gold gloves. UZR only goes back to 2002, and from 2002-2004, his average UZR was 6.5. Not quite Longoria good, but still above average. I stopped at 2004 for a reason. That was the first year Chavez hit the DL. Since then he has played in just 418 of a possible 810 games and racked up 388 days on the DL with a laundry list of ailments.

I have little doubt that Longoria can duplicate the numbers Chavez put up in his mid 20s. However, I hope that he is able to avoid the same injury bug that bit Chavez hard in his late 20s. So far, Longoria has had his fair share of injuries including: a fractured ulna chip (forearm), a mild foot strain, a hamstring strain, and a finger infection. Let's hope (pray) that Longoria's career is met with better luck and a better training staff otherwise we could end up like A's fans asking what could've been.

Billy Beane Exclusive Athletics Nation Interview: Season End 2009 Part I

Tyler Bleszinski — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 14:00:46 -0000

The A's did make some strides forward in 2009 despite finishing with nearly an identical record the past three seasons. They have a good core of young players who appear primed to only get better, and despite the last week of stumbling baseball, the team was one of baseball's surprises in the second half.

With Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Brett Wallace, Daric Barton, Rajai Davis and the rest of the team coming back with more experience, 2010 is looking up for us green and gold faithful. Billy Beane is exceptionally busy wrapping up the season and already starting to look ahead, so I appreciate him taking the time out to chat with me this past week. This is the first part of the interview. I will be running the second part first thing Tuesday morning. Enjoy.

Blez: When I talked to you in spring training it looked like you felt like this team could've gone either way. You were hesitant to say it was going to excel. You didn't seem to know what you were going to have.

Billy Beane: If you point to something right away, we had so many young and unproven starting pitchers in the rotation. You just didn't really know how they were going to react and it's hard to predict where you're going to go if you don't know where your pitching is. I think when we spoke it was right around the time when we were just becoming aware of some of the injury possibilities that ended up happening. The two most obvious were Duchscherer and Joey Devine. When you have so many rookie pitchers getting their first taste of the major leagues, it's very difficult to predict where you're going to go.

Blez: What would your assessment on 2009 be then? We're closing in on the final week of the season here.

Beane: It almost feels like two different seasons. I'm very pleased with the second half. I think we've played pretty well and we've surprised some people because we've played so well in particular after some of the bigger name players weren't here anymore. In particular the Holliday trade, and we've made other changes. But I think the most encouraging thing has been the way we've performed in the second half as well as the development of some of these players who I think are going to be here for a long time, which was first and foremost our goal this year. It's been the last couple of years that we've been trying to build that foundation of young talent that people can look forward to seeing for the next few years and creating a winning core for the foreseeable future. For the first time you really started to see that. You can look at some of the young players like Andrew Bailey who made the All Star team as a closer. Certainly Brett Anderson's performance and Trevor Cahill's improvement. Gio (Gonzalez) has made progress this year. Raj Davis, on the offensive side, has come on and shown himself to be a really good major league centerfielder. Ryan Sweeney as well as Kurt Suzuki's continued development and I know I'm going to leave people out. Cliff Pennington has performed very well in the second half. I think if you look around the diamond you'll see that these guys are going to be here for a while and they've proven over the second half that they can perform at the major league level. And as we continue to add guys from our minor league system, guys who are highly thought of, you can start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Blez: You mentioned people being surprised that the team picked up and became a better team when you ultimately traded away or got rid of some of the "name" guys like Holliday, Giambi and Cabrera. Some of those guys we all expected more from at the beginning of the year. Is there a point where you might've said, "Maybe instead of bringing in some of those guys, maybe I should've just started with the youth at the beginning of the year and perhaps they would've matured and gotten to that point?"

Beane: That's a good question. Personally I always like the idea of if you're trying to rebuild to just got full bore and do it. But there's also a balance as well. In fairness you have to understand a guy like Cliff Pennington probably benefitted from going back and starting the year in Triple-A. What we've seen this year even relative to last year is that he was much more ready to come up this year and contribute than last year. I don't think you could say that that would've been the case in April. But it's a fair question and certainly one that you think about. I do think there is something to be said about having some of those older guys in here so as not to put the pressure on those younger guys to perform. When we made some of these trades to make the commitment to the younger guys it was a different point in the season and I think it allowed them to relax and realize they were going to be able to play every day. They would realize they could make a mistake and still be in there. I'm not sure that that would've been the case had you started that way from the outset. You might've had a different mindset from the younger players. Keep in mind that some of the holdover guys are young too. Those players are different ones than they were in April. Even though we see Kurt Suzuki as the established guy, he's a guy that continues to improve as is Ryan Sweeney. I think having some of those veteran guys gave them the opportunity to continue some of that development. When the baton was handed off to them, they were more prepared then they were in April.

Blez: You were talking about some of those veteran guys you traded away. And obviously it hurt the team quite a bit that Matt Holliday didn't come close to his career numbers with the A's. There was speculation on AN, everything from he knew he was a short timer here in Oakland so he didn't care, to league adjustment, to the adjustment to not being at Coors Field. Why do you think he didn't come close to what he's doing now in St. Louis?

Beane: The first thing I can put to rest is that he didn't care because that was absolutely not the case. Matt was an absolute professional here. If anything he was probably guilty of putting too much pressure on himself than people know publicly. Matt had impeccable work habits and was a pro. There was probably a bit of an adjustment period. But keep in mind even right before he went to St. Louis, he was really starting to get going here.

Blez: His numbers definitely were going up before he was dealt.

Beane: Yeah you could see he was starting to feel more like himself and get it going. The fact that he took off when he went there was not a surprise. Certainly the lineup to hit in around Pujols, I think it became a perfect environment for him. I think had Matt stayed here he would've returned to his career numbers and I think he was headed that way before he left. I can tell you this. He was an absolute professional when he was here and any assertion that he didn't care is not true.

Blez: How do you find enough at bats for someone like Landon Powell who seems like he should get more regular playing time? Do you go into the offseason thinking about how you get more time for him despite the fact that Kurt Suzuki is a fantastic catcher, does a great job with the pitchers and is great offensively? Do you start to look at DH or a different position?

Beane: There's been times where Bob (Geren) has tried to do that. Early in the year he played a few games at first base and it's not something everyone can do immediately on an everyday basis. The other thing too is there were times that Landon was slowed down because he had nagging hamstring issues at different points during the season. Even though there are times when Bob wanted to get his bat in the lineup, Landon's body wouldn't allow him to. One of the things we're going to focus on with Landon is making sure he's as physically prepared as possibly to handle even more than he has. But we see it as a good problem to have. To be able to put in a catcher behind Kurt who has the ability to hit the ball out of the ballpark but is also a good defensive catcher is a great luxury to have. But the fact is, and you alluded to this, Kurt Suzuki is one of the top catchers in the game. Not only that but he's very much become a leader on the team so he's going to get the bulk of time, yet we are aware of the amount of production Landon has given us in his brief amount of time. I think the goal is ultimately to get him more at bats, but for the time being, Kurt is going to get the bulk of them. Part of Landon's responsibility is to make sure he can handle more playing time than he has because that hasn't always been the case this year.

Blez: When someone like Rajai Davis has what looks like a "career year," how do you assess whether a reasonable projection for next year is more like what he's doing, or more like what he's done before? How does the team go about trying to figure this out?

Beane: In some sense you have to take it at face value. He was with Pittsburgh and then San Francisco and now us. He's never really been given a full blown opportunity to prove himself as an everyday player and now that he is putting up the numbers he is, the first question is, can he keep this up? But if you go back and look at what Raj did in the minor leagues, he was a good minor league hitter so it shouldn't come as a total shock. You're not talking about a guy who was a .220 hitter in the minor leagues. He was a good player when he played. Right now we just see it as a guy who has hit well in the minors who has finally been given the opportunity and is carrying it forward. We're going to enjoy it and go with it and try not to overthink. Anyone who has seen Raj with us over the last year and three quarters, when he's played, he's played well. He's one of the unique major league players who continues to just get better. We're going to take it at face value and he's done enough to show that he's a good enough player to play every day at center field. He's such a weapon on the base paths and he gives you such a unique dynamic. If you look at the stolen bases he's had without even having a full season, it isn't out of the question that next year you could see stealing 65-70 bases.

Blez: You reference stolen bases and obviously it's something that has changed quite a bit about the A's. I think you're in the top three in stolen bases and Raj is one of the league leaders in that number and he really makes the overall team number larger. Did you make a decision to be more aggressive on the base paths because of the lack of power? Did you think, we've got to get some offense some way?

Beane: I really think it's Bob (Geren) trying to take the personnel he has and trying to do the best he can with it. He's playing to the strengths. We don't have a lot of power and it's certainly something in order to be a more complete offensive team it's something we need to get. In a perfect world you have both guys who can steal bases and guys who can hit it out of the ballpark. As much as anything, it's Bob really trying to take advantage of what he has. Early in the year we were having trouble scoring runs and he wanted to create a mindset of being aggressive and when you have a guy like Raj doing it the way he's doing it, it has a tendency of rubbing off on everybody. There's a sense of confidence guys have when they get on the bases and they look to steal bases. They're looking for that steal sign. It also has a carryover effect with the rest of the base running. We've been by and large a very good baserunning team and it was just a matter of Bob looking at his personnel and he thought that this is what we're going to have to do to scrape some runs out. The second half we've actually swung the bats really well also and if you combine that with the aggressive baserunning, that's why you're seeing a lot higher run totals. The one thing it really has done is just given the guys a more aggressive mindset. They realize they're not going to win a whole lot of ballgames by getting into home run hitting contests. I give a lot of credit to Bob and his staff as they've really scratched and clawed their way through nine innings of these games.

Blez: Two questions. Do you believe in that the stolen bases must be a 75 percent success rate or higher or it's counterproductive and second of all, do you believe that someone like Rajai Davis actually puts additional pressure on the pitcher? The assumption is that the opposition pitcher somehow loses that concentration because they're so worried about the baserunner stealing.

Beane: There is no question that if a guy like Raj gets on base, everyone is aware that he is on base and there is going to be some adjustments to how quickly the pitcher might deliver the pitch and the catcher might call for a different pitch than he otherwise would. So the game calling might change as well. I'm sure you could quantify it. I'm not aware of exactly how to, but you can certainly tell from a game situation how teams react differently if you're willing to steal a base so I do think it does have an impact. The Angels have certainly done that for years and I think it's had an impact on how teams play them. It creates a tense situation for not just pitchers and catchers but defenders because they have to come up with a perfect play. As far as the rate, there is certainly a point where if you're constantly running and constantly getting thrown out it's definitely having an adverse impact and the demarcation line certainly seems to be around that 70 percent area. You also have to keep in mind that it doesn't take into account some of the things teams are doing to adjust to a team that runs a lot.

Blez: Do you think that the stolen base has become a bit of an unvalued commodity in baseball considering how few there are now, especially in the American League, compared to years past?

Beane: What I think I've noticed more than anything is that a lot of the teams that are running have sophisticated coaching staffs and sophisticated ways to apply the running game, and I might not be accurate and this is just my impression, but those teams seem to be successful more often. The percentage at which they are stealing bases just seems to be higher.

Blez: The Rays are a good example from last year.

Beane: The Red Sox, who historically haven't been a running team the last few years, specifically with (Jacoby) Ellsbury at the top of their lineup. Yet they also seem to steal at a very high rate too. I think everyone is just trying to take advantage by making a percentage play as well. That's why the success rate seems higher. It just seems very much a part of the strategy as opposed to just indiscriminate running for the sake of doing it.

Blez: We talked about Raj and his career year. This is similar to that. Does Daric Barton seem like he's finally arrived or do you need to see more than a month of red-hot hitting, especially given that he's done that before?

Beane: I knew I'd forget somebody earlier and Daric has, certainly this last month, been swinging the bat the way we knew he could and very similarly to the first month he came to the big leagues a couple of years ago. One thing to keep in mind with Daric is that he's still extremely young. He came up at an age when many kids are still in college. He needs to be given the benefit of time and we need to do that. Through no fault of his own, he's had a few nicks here and there that have kind of interrupted his development. The biggest thing is this guy has been a very, very good minor league hitter and at times has shown that he can be a very good major league hitter. With young players, you just can't expect they're always going to be Andrew Bailey where they step on a mound and they never look back. Daric's development path is not unlike a lot of successful major leaguers where he shows you something and maybe he goes through some difficult times. That just means we have to be patient and hope that the guy that you saw in the minor leagues ultimately becomes that guy at the major leagues. This last month Daric has made some huge strides and we're not just excited about next year, but the next five or six years. The other thing you can't forget about Daric is how good a defender he has become. This is a converted catcher in the minor leagues. He's become a very good defensive first baseman, not just with the glove, but when needed, he throws very well from that position too. We're excited and it's great to see. We've always had high hopes for Daric particularly after that first month at the big leagues. He's one of the reasons we've played so well.

Blez: Staying with the first baseman theme, you have Barton, Doolittle and Carter as potential first basemen, but Doolittle and Carter also have some OF experience. What does the first base depth chart look like right now, and which of the players might be more likely to end up elsewhere on the field?

Beane: It's a question we may face and face very soon. We played Chris Carter a little in the outfield in Double-A. He's a good athlete. In a perfect world, all those guys become very good major league hitters and you have to find a spot for them. It potentially is something we're going to face. We're going to have to make a decision and it will be made on production first and foremost. Secondly, as you mentioned, it might be based on somebody's ability to play another position. In Chris' case we started to play him some in the outfield and I've even talked to his agent as he's going to play winter ball in Mexico and we've talked about getting him out there as much as possible because we think he's a good enough athlete to do it. We were doing the same with Doolittle in Triple A this year before he had the knee issue. It is definitely something as we go into the offseason and spring training we're going to have to prepare for.

Blez: Would the power potential for the position have a big deciding difference in who you play at first base? It's obviously still a concern with Daric because he hasn't put up much in terms of power numbers, but Carter has and Doolittle has some pop as well. Or do you maybe weigh the defense first?

Beane: Being a regular major league baseball player, the player brings a lot of elements: it's his baserunning, it's his fielding, it's his power, it's his ability to hit for average and it's when you add those things together usually one player is going to be better than the other even if he's deficient in one area because he may do one thing very well. It's not something we have to answer yet and it's definitely getting closer. We think all these guys are major league players, it's just about finding a spot for them.

Blez: What will most determine the timeline for when Chris Carter is called up to Oakland? Could he win a job out of spring training if he looks ready?

Beane: It's probably a little early to answer that. The only thing I'll say is that we wanted to give Chris some time at Triple-A and give him some confidence going into next year thinking he's seen the highest level of the minors and he could perform there. I think he did a great job in the few weeks he was there. It's just too early to answer that. I don't like creating definites at this point when you don't need to. A player usually decides when he's ready for the major leagues by performing at the highest level and at that point there's nowhere for him to go but up. Some of these guys are getting close to that.

Blez: Based on what you have seen so far, what's the current thinking on Brett Wallace's chances of being a major league every day third baseman?

Beane: We're going to leave Brett over there. He's played one full season, a total of a season and a half of professional baseball as he's moved very, very quickly because of his bat. We're going to give him the benefit of some time over there defensively and particularly given the long-term need we're going to have at that position, it would behoove us to give him every opportunity to give him the development time defensively to see if he can play the position because it would definitely be a great fit if he can play third base in the big leagues based on the personnel we have here and have coming up. It would be absolutely perfect. Especially given that Chavy (Eric Chavez) is coming into the last year of his contract, the chance that Brett with some further refining would be a very nice fit for us there long term. I guess the question is, is it still a work in progress? And we're going to give him every opportunity to prove he can play that position.

Blez: What do you do about third base, at least short term? I'm not even sure where Eric Chavez stands at this point or if he's a part of the conversation. I've read reports that he could do permanent damage to himself if he plays again. Where does Eric stand right now?

Beane: From a rehab standpoint, he's doing very well. The good thing about him having surgery when he did is that when we get into the offseason, he should have as normal an offseason as any other player. He should be able to start resuming normal baseball activities when everyone else starts. The time that he's had has been good. I think we have to be realistic including Eric because he's faced a number of surgeries and he's been more disappointed than anyone that he hasn't been able to come back completely. We have to be realistic on him coming back and have some short-term preparation as it applies to that position going into next year. I also think that Eric, given his talent level, deserves the respect and the opportunity to get healthy and given the opportunity to get back to doing what he does best. In short, we're going to try to prepare for both sides of the equation.

Blez: Where does Travis Buck stand with the team now as he seems to be caught in an almost purgatory state now between Triple-A and being up with the team but not really seeing much regular playing time? Is it the type of thing where he needs to get in there for a while to get his confidence back as he's seemed to have hit well in Triple-A?

Beane: The one thing about major league baseball is that it's pretty Darwinian. If you hit, you're going to play. Raj is probably the best example of that. When Raj got a chance to play he hit. Since he's been playing, he's looked around saying I'm not going to let anyone else play because I know I have to perform here in order to keep myself in the lineup. Most recently, Ryan Sweeney has done the same thing. With all players, not just Travis, it's ultimately going to be based on performance. Travis has had a couple of years in a row, unfortunately, where he's had concussions that haven't enabled him to even play regularly at Triple A. He's missed some time there because of these injuries. We still think very highly of Travis for the same reasons that most people did when he first came up. We think he's got the talent to be a good major league player. At this point it's when he's given the chance he has to take advantage of it and ultimately hopefully avoiding some of those injuries he's had the last couple of years. But we still think very highly of him and one of the best things about Travis is that when he first came up one of the areas we wanted him to work on was his defense and that was addressed to him and he did. He's improved significantly in the outfield and it was an area of weakness when he first came up. Ultimately when he gets to this level it will be based on performance.

Coming tomorrow: Beane delves into the pitching, the status of the injured A's pitchers and how he sees 2010 shaping up.

Muppet Thoughts

grover — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 06:30:14 -0000

The minor league season is over and the Arizona Fall League has yet to begin. Baseball America has begun their League Top 20 lists but they haven’t hit anywhere where the A’s have qualifying individuals. Winter ball is months away (although today it seems as if winter itself is close at hand) and the A’s are being their typical tight-lipped selves regarding the goings on in Instructs. So don’t expect much in the way of minor league discussion in today’s write up. What will I talk about?

Glad you asked.

Next year’s Free Agent options, the current 2010 payroll and some interesting service time tidbits, why using FIP or any other metric to argue Cahill’s place in Oakland’s 2010 rotation is missing the point, a moment of praise to Rajai Davis’ base running skills and… I don’t know… whatever I bloody well want.

If that sounds interesting to you then I’ll see you on the flip side.

Let’s talk about money.

Money, money, money, money, money, money.

Let’s face it, we live in a capitalist society and (most of us on AN, anyways) in a country with a WTF?!?! economy that makes risky investments a rather unattractive idea. The San Diego Padres, the Texas Rangers and the Chicago Cubs are just 3 recent examples of how quickly an organization’s financial situation can change. The 2009 A’s opened up the season with a $62.3 million payroll and we know that Wolff and Fisher don’t consider the team to be a public philanthropy. The Oakland A’s are a business, and businessmen expect to turn a profit. It is difficult to turn a profit when you have no customers (I learned that in my college economics class) and the A’s have drawn fewer paying customers than any other team in major league baseball. While revenue sharing and national media deals will provide a solid chunk of money for 2010 the A’s do not draw a great deal of income through local TV or stadium licensing, meaning the loss of approximately a quarter million attendees could have an impact on the amount of money the A’s have to spend on player payroll in 2010.

Looking at the current roster and trying to anticipate the arbitration cases of 8 different players, it appears to me that the A’s have $38 million committed in salary to next year’s roster. (Keep in mind that I’ve tried to pad that figure, ‘cause it’s always easier to pocket any left over cash than it is to find more cash when the bills are due. Also, I’ve got a bit of a thing for round numbers and counting by quarters.) Let’s look at those arbitration eligible players. Eric Munson and Edgar Gonzalez might be best described as fringe level big league players, but the only way the A’s could insure that they could retain their services for next season would be to offer them arbitration. Otherwise, the A’s would need to release them and try to bid for their services as free agents. I think that is the more likely scenario, as the A’s should be more interested in finding cheap vets they can sign to minor league deals than in keeping replacement-level talent at inflated rates.

Santiago Casilla is eligible for arbitration for the first time but the combination of his injuries, his ineffectiveness and the depth of power RH arms in the A’s farm system leads me to believe that AKA Jairo Garcia will be moving on to another team. Joey Devine is coming back from season ending elbow surgery and that will probably keep his 2010 salary down, although I am still penciling in a raise to $750K. Michael Wuertz is due a huge pay bump, at least doubling his $1.1 million 2009 salary. He didn’t get many opportunities to close and arbiters tend to be distracted by shiny things like saves, so I’m figuring he’ll earn a $2.5 million salary for next year. Before I move on to the arby-eligible hitters, I want to point out that Dana Eveland is no longer looking at arbitration for next season. His early season demotion hit his service time tally very hard and he simply doesn’t have the days in to qualify for arbitration. This means the A’s have the option to bring Eveland back at $420K next season. The only downside is it looks like (assuming I’ve counted things right) that the A’s used Eveland’s last option in 2009 and if he doesn’t pitch well enough to make the Opening Day big league roster next year the A’s would have to expose him to waivers before they could send him to the minors. Which wouldn’t be a great loss, but it is a factor to consider before deciding to invest the time and effort in giving Eveland another chance next Spring. Perhaps the coaching and innings would be better served going to another option?

Scott Hairston hasn’t performed like the A’s had hoped since they acquired him from the Padres but his early season numbers will insure a pay increase for next season. I think his late season injuries and his struggling 2nd half performance will prevent him from doubling his salary but I can see him collecting $2 million next year. Rajai Davis has only a half season of excellence to make him some money and I don’t think that UZR gets factored into the arbitration process but 40 SB is sexy and shiny. I expect Davis to more than quadruple his 2009 salary and earn a $1.75 million payday. Jack Cust leads the A’s in HR and BB but also in K’s and is a distant 2nd in RBI. UZR might not factor in the decision making process but general defensive suckitude does. I think Cust goes from $2.8 million to $4.25 million next season, although I wouldn’t blink twice if that figure went up another half million. But my official guess is 4 and a quarter.

Altogether, a $38 million commitment to the 2010 payroll.

That means the A’s have some spending money next year. But where to spend it and how much is there to spend? I doubt the A’s are going to bump the payroll beyond the $62.3 million figure from 2009 and in fact I expect to see it drop by roughly $10 million. Where am I getting that low-50’s number? Call it a gut reaction to the state of the team and the AL West, plus the lack of intriguing free agent options. The A’s are looking at a serious influx of position talent by the end of next season and it seems unlikely that the team would invest heavily in free agent vets that could potentially block the young talent and/or become expensive bench options. There are obvious holes in the roster but little in the way of value to be had in the current free agent crop.

One of the places where a major investment and change would be welcomed (by the fans, anyway) is at 3rd base. Eric Chavez is in the last guaranteed year of his contract and has barely made it on to the field over the last 3 years. There are at least 4 credible options on the free agent market that could give the A’s an immediate boost at the hot corner. Troy Glaus, Mark DeRosa, Adrian Beltre and Chone Figgins all offer the right mix of offense and defense that teams demand at 3rd base these days. DeRosa offers some defensive versatility and enough bat that his team will be looking to find a place to play him. The downside to DeRosa is he’s a Type A free agent and he turns 35 next February, meaning his decline could come swift and soon. Glaus is coming off a shoulder injury but should be ready to go next Spring and at 33 might be looking for a 1 year deal to re-establish himself before going for 1 last big payday. He’s got enough glove to handle 3rd base should Chavez be unable to make it onto the field and his bat would play well at 1st base in the unlikely scenario that Chavez is healthy.

Figgins is intriguing because of his versatility and out of all the big ticket 3rd base options he’s actually healthy! He’ll be 32 next season and is probably looking for a 4 year deal. The cool thing about Figgins is you don’t have to worry about him blocking some stud prospect’s path, he’s got the athleticism and experience to play almost anywhere on the field. The downside is he’s a Type A free agent (yeah, me loving that 2nd round pick) and his name has been mentioned with so many teams that if even half of them are truly interested in him the A’s would be in a bidding war to land him. Beltre is battling injuries this year but he doesn’t turn 31 until the beginning of next season. Still, he picked a bad year to hit like crap. His glove is still top notch but the reality is the A’s gave up on Jack Hannahan (a quality defender at 3rd base and according to UZR a near equal to Beltre) to keep Adam Kennedy’s bat in the line-up. It’s going to take at least a 3 year deal to land Beltre (I’m guessing 3/$27 million but I could be way off) and when you think about it, the A’s would be paying all that cash for Beltre’s bat. Another thing to consider, if you believe in Brett Wallace the 3rd baseman at all, signing Beltre creates a problem. Adrian earns most of his value via the glove; his bat doesn’t play well at 1st base. You could, of course, slide Wallace to 1st base but that defeats the whole idea of him playing at the hot corner. You better decide where Brett Wallace fits in the field before paying Adrian Beltre serious coin.

There are a couple other 3rd base options that get brought up around AN on occasion. Adam Kennedy made a decent stop gap option at 3rd base this season and the A’s have already said they’d consider bringing him back. Akinori Iwamura is one of those under-rated gems that everyone knows about and thus the pursuit will resemble a piranha feeding frenzy. Joe Crede is on his way out of Minnesota but he’ll be 32 and is heading towards his 2nd back surgery and are you out of your fucking mind?! 32 and double back surgery describes Eric Chavez, that’s not a pairing we should wish the A’s to make.

If the A’s are looking to make a free agent splash, the value looks to be in the starting pitching ranks. If the D’backs decide to bid bon voyage to Brandon Webb I say the A’s need to go all in and offer him a big money deal to bring him to Oakland. Yes, he hurt his shoulder and missed almost the entire season but there was no damage to the labrum and forget about any loss of awesomeness due to changing leagues… his groundball and strike out tendencies will play well in the AL. Barring that admittedly less-than-likely scenario, Justin Duchscherer and Brett Myers might make great candidates for 1 year deals to re-establish themselves in 2010. I mean no disrespect when I say that Duke needs to get his head on straight before trying to pitch again next season. They have said they’d be interested in bringing him back next season but the onus is on Justin getting his life in order. Myers needs to get healthy and I’m guessing a change of scenery would do him good. At 29 he’s still young enough to have more than a few solid seasons if he can get his act together.

But do the A’s really need to invest potentially limited funds into the starting rotation? I mean, adding a healthy Brandon Webb is pretty much a no-brainer, especially if you can get him for a discounted rate and not the $20+ million annual C.C. Sabathia is getting from the Yankees. The answer seems to lie in how you feel about Trevor Cahill. If you hear his name and think rainbows and puppies than you’re probably disinclined to spend free agent dollars on a big ticket pitcher. If hearing "Cahill" causes you to grind your teeth than you’re probably wondering why I didn’t list Jason Marquis as a viable free agent option. Me? I think puppies.

I’ve heard the arguments for sending Cahill down to AAA to start next season. I personally feel that the best place for Cahill to work on his breaking stuff is at the big league level, however if the coaching staff disagrees then I’m more than happy to yield to their wisdom. But I’m willing to bet Curt Young isn’t spending his time on AN arguing about how Trevor Cahill needs AAA seasoning. The principle argument on AN in demoting Cahill centers around his FIP (or tRA but either number will do) courtesy of Fangraphs. FIP, for those who have ignored this discussion so far but are now drawn in by my dulcet tones, is essentially what we could expect the pitcher’s ERA to be if we could factor out team defense. Fangraphs lists 77 starting pitchers as throwing enough innings/pitching enough games to qualify for their statistical leader board. Hit the button to compare FIP and proceed to the last page, ‘cause as of 9/22 Trevor Cahill ranked last in baseball with a FIP of 5.30.

It’s a fairly simple logic stream. You’ve got a young pitcher whom we all knew was being rushed posting the worst luck-independent numbers in baseball. Why waste his service time watching him get his butt kicked when we can send him down to AAA where he belongs? My problem with that logic is, that while Cahill’s FIP score is an accurate interpretation of his 2009 season performance it doesn’t actually reflect how well he pitched this year. We knew that there were going to be days when Cahill was going to get his head handed to him on a platter. The guy had barely any experience outside of A-ball and his mechanics where inconsistent. His minor league performance carried indicators (BB/9 rate) that his game needed more polish. We knew all this and still the A’s put him on their 2009 Opening Day roster.

So why are folks so intent on punishing Cahill for living up to our expectations? I looked at the box scores of the 30 games Cahill had pitched in this season, and in 9 of those contests he either allowed 5 or more runs (earned/unearned, doesn’t matter on the scoreboard) and/or failed to pitch a full 5 innings. I don’t care what metric you choose to believe in, there isn’t a baseball fan among us who wouldn’t say that those games represent a failure on the part of the pitcher in giving his team a chance to win. Cahill earned his bottom feeding FIP in those 9 games. When you look at his record of performance you see a wide variation in outcomes and all FIP does is draw a line and say "this is the average outcome". And there’s nothing wrong with that except that it doesn’t provide a full, detailed picture of what Cahill did this season. So I asked a second question: How good did Trevor Cahill pitch this year?

Unfortunately, before I could answer my question I had to figure out how I was going to answer my question! A few years back someone (I don’t care whom) started talking about Quality Starts. The basic premise was a SP got credited with a QS anytime he lasted a minimum of 6 IP and gave up no more than 3 ER. This would help balance out those days when a pitcher just got crushed and his numbers would (unfairly?, undeservedly?) drag down his overall line. I don’t know if this was in response to Coors Field or maybe because it was the Steroid era, but while the basic idea had some merit the parameters sucked. 3 ER in 6 IP? That’s a 4.50 ERA, not exactly what I call quality from my SP.

So I decided to apply the same basic concept to the 77 SP on Fangraphs’ leader board pages, only this time I made the rules more strict. No more than 2 runs (earned/unearned count the same on the scoreboard) over a minimum of 6 IP. Then I decided to add an extra tier, so 3 runs allowed over a minimum of 7 full IP would also count on the Good side. Then I went over the game logs of every qualifying SP (further explaining the 9/22 cut-off date) and simply added up how many HQS (High Quality Starts… yeah, I expect a point deduction from the Russian judge for my lack of creativity) to see how well Mr. Worst-FIP-in-Baseball pitched.

Trevor Cahill pitched 14 HQS, tying him with 8 other SP including Cole Hamels, John Lackey, Scott Feldman and Yovani Gallardo.

14 HQS is also higher score than the performances from Andy Pettite, Barry Zito, Brett Anderson, Carlos Zambrano, Clayton Kershaw, James Shields, Rich Porcello, Roy Oswalt and 18 other big league SP who posted better FIP than Trevor Cahill.

I am not saying that this means Trevor Cahill is a better pitcher than all these guys. I am saying that on the days when Cahill’s talent outweighed his inexperience he pitched like a legitimate big league SP. And here’s the thing about inexperience, it goes away after a time. The 174 (and counting) IP that Cahill has accumulated this year with the A’s has been an invaluable learning experience for him and it should make him less prone to the epic disasters he created 9 times as a raw and unready rookie. Trevor Cahill is far from a finished project and it may be that next year the A’s will decide that the best place for him to work on his breaking ball or his mechanics or his interview clichés is in Sacramento and I’ll be fine with that.

But don’t tell me his FIP dictates the A’s purchase his bus ticket 6 months in advance.

One last things as this post has gone far longer than I intended… I mentioned this in another thread but I feel it bears repeating. With a little over half-a-season’s worth of playing time Bill James ranks Rajai Davis as the 4th best base runner in all of baseball. This is counting Davis’ stolen base and base running performance, and on a team lacking in power those skills are very important (even in a non-starting role) to help create runs.

Alright, I’ve rattled on long enough. Sorry for the lateness of today’s Front Page write up but folks seemed to be enjoying the Davis and Holliday themed articles already up. Besides, you can’t rush greatness.

Or in my case… my typing.

And thank you for your support.

A's Post-Holliday

baseballgirl — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 17:49:43 -0000

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From today's Talking Points: Tim Kawakami on Bay Area sports:

1-Quietly, practically under a self-imposed cloak of invisibility, the A’s have managed to put 724 runs on the board so far in 2009.

I still have to double-take when I type that number out, and now I’ve typed it a few times. 724???

That’s currently the 14th-best run total in baseball, an average of 4.78 per game, and on pace for 761.

Last year, the A’s scored only 646 runs. (The Giants are at 620 so far this year and on pace to score 656.)

There’s a simple answer, of course: We all knew the additions of Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi and a healthy Eric Chavez would get the A’s offense back percolating!

Wait. The A’s offensive eruption has mostly been done since the July 24 trade of Holliday and the Aug. 7 release of Giambi. Chavez never really was there for the A’s, again, this year.

I just went back to July 24, the day Holliday was moved to the Cardinals (for no immediately offensive help).

At that point, the A’s were 40-55, and were averaging 4.35 runs per game.

Since the departure of Holliday, the A’s have gone 33-25 (REALLY), and scored 310 runs, a Yankees-like average of 5.35 runs per game.

I’m here to note it. I can’t really explain it. No stats really pop out, other than the stolen base total, which is of course not a usual A’s/Billy Beane staple.

Team MVP: Davis, of course, with all those SBs and the .811 OPS. Beyond that, I can’t explain the A’s gusher of runs. If they could’ve loaned about 25 of them to the Giants, there might have been a playoff round or two at AT&T Park this year.

Discuss.

Minor League Update, September 1st

grover — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 14:39:04 -0000

My timing is impeccable.

The morning after the A’s score 8 runs and Chris Carter hits 3 homeruns for the River Cats I come to AN to post a story about how underwhelming the Oakland offense has been and how we can’t expect to see any help from the farm system until July of 2010.

Gosh how I love feeling timely and relevant.

Today’s Minor League Update is my attempt to gauge when the Oakland A’s offense can expect to receive reinforcements from internal sources, i.e. the farm system. My estimates are meant to be conservative, as I don’t want to see players bounced back and forth between Oakland and Sacramento. When I post a player’s ETA it’s meant to be a permanent arrival… until Billy Beane trades him, of course.

Chris Carter: LF; ETA: July, 2010

The A’s have said time and again that once a player has success at AA the possibility of him being called up increases dramatically. The reality with our favorite baseball organization has traditionally been much more conservative, as the A’s under Beane almost never called up a player until he’d seen a fair amount of time in AAA. Then this season happened and Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill, the top pitching prospects in the system, end up on the Opening Day roster with no more than 2 months experience above High-A ball! So we should expect to see the top hitting prospect in next year’s Opening Day line-up… right?

Not so fast. Carter’s AA line of 337/435/576 is oh so pretty, but he’s shown a tendency over the past couple seasons to start slowly. In 2008 he didn’t start hitting until June and this season the power didn’t start flowing until the second half of May, not hitting his 4th home run until May 18. Carter hasn’t exactly taken AAA by storm (OK, clouds were building last night) and I think he’s going to need some time to make a few more adjustments before making the Show. Give him a couple months next year to get his feet under him in AAA and let him make his big league debut when he’s going full tilt.

Brett Wallace: 1B; ETA: June 2010

Brett Wallace is one of the best hitting prospects in the minor leagues, but he’s barely a year out of college and his AAA line of 295/344/444 with 17 doubles and 13 home runs doesn’t exactly scream DOMINATOR. So sure, the A’s could rush him and start him in the Oakland next Opening Day… then probably have to send him down to Sac by early May so he can get his swing figured out. Let’s be proactive here and skip the demotion! I say give him 6 weeks to beat the snot out of AAA pitching and call him up when the rest of the PCL is willing to buy his bus ticket just to get him out of the league.

Adrian Cardenas: 3B; ETA: August 2010

The toughest player for me to guestimate, in large part because his arrival time is at least partly tied to the health (or lack thereof) of Eric Chavez. If Chavez collapses early in 2010 then Wallace will (most likely) get first crack at playing 3B. But if a miracle occurs and we actually see Chavez play again, then Cardenas (the most logical long term successor in the A’s system, even if the A’s themselves seem to be fighting that reality with every freakin’ breath) probably doesn’t see the Show until September, 2010. However, when betting on Eric’s health the smart money is always on the DL, so I’m bumping up Cardenas’ arrival date to August of next year. The only thing that worries me about Cardenas is the lack of power he’s shown thus far, but he’s young and has shown a knack for hitting so the power could still come.

Corey Brown: OF, ETA: September 2010

Call it woman’s intuition or maybe my furry blue coat has fried my brain, but I can see Mr. Brown seeing the bright lights of Oakland a year from today. It could happen even sooner if he has a wildly successful Arizona Fall League stint, segueing into a brilliant AAA debut but his strike out issues and missing half of the 2009 season begs for caution.

Corey Brown has the bat and the defensive chops to handle CF in the Show and who knows how long Rajai Davis can keep this going, but Brown has got to stay healthy and take advantage of his opportunities when they appear.

Others of note: Josh Donaldson does not have the skills to be a starting big league Catcher. His arm is strong but tends to be a bit scatter shot and he allows too many Passed Balls. He does show some solid hitting skills and might have enough versatility to play on the infield corners, making him a valuable bench asset down the line. The A’s seem to be fast tracking Jemile Weeks but he won’t see Oakland until the A’s are unicorn free. Weeks will most likely start next season in AA but I expect the A’s to look for reason to promote him by June. Sean Doolittle is still recovering from his knee injury and the A’s want to see him play Winter Ball. But Wallace’s arrival and Carter’s development pretty much make it RF or bust for Doolittle and he missed a golden opportunity to get his foot in the door this season.

That’s it. And thank you for your support.

(I need a catchier closing line.)

Could it be...? No, it can't be... OMG it really is! It's a Minor League Update!!!

grover — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Hello again.

Work called me away for a while and it’s been tough getting back into the groove of things. For those who don’t know, I’m a wildland fire fighter and August got a little busy for those in my career field. So when I disappear again for a couple weeks just remember… I envy your access to in-door plumbing.

Anyways, I want to focus this week’s minor league update on the 40 man roster and the options that are going to have to be decided upon in the coming months. Why do this now instead of waiting until September 1st? The topic tickles my fancy, that’s why. As I seem to have (once again) misplaced my Cap o’ Omnipotence I’m forced to resort to basic logic and common sense reckoning to try and deduce the future roster.

That’s right… none of what I’m about to tell you is guaranteed!

The way I see it, there are 28-29 spots on the future 40 man roster all but guaranteed. On the pitching side, Brett Anderson, Andrew Bailey, Jerry Blevins, Dallas Braden, Craig Breslow, Trevor Cahill, Joey Devine, Gio Gonzalez, Jeff Gray, Jay Marshall, Vin Mazzaro, Clayton Mortensen, Josh Outman, Henry Rodriguez, Michael Wuertz and Brad Ziegler all seem certain to have jobs in the Oakland organization next year. That’s 16 pitchers of varying combinations of success/cheapness/options that aren’t going to be released just to make room on the roster. (There’s a pretty good chance that Outman will open next season on the 60-day DL, opening up an additional spot on the 40 man.) Santiago Casilla and Edgar Gonzalez are both arbitration eligible next season but neither pitched so well that the A’s are going to be eager to give them big pay raises, which could mean either or both players could end up as trade fodder or possibly even released. Dana Eveland is still on the 40 man roster as well, but his poor performance led to a demotion that will keep him from seeing any arby money next season. Unfortunately, Mr. Eveland’s suckitude forced the A’s to use his last option this season; meaning he can’t be stashed on Sacramento’s roster next season without first passing through waivers. Chances are Eveland isn’t going to be one of the 5 best SP candidates for the A’s come Opening Day 2010 and as a lefty with a pulse he’d probably get snapped up by some other team desperate for pitching. Therefore, I think this is good-bye to Mr. Eveland.

As it just so happens, it looks as if the A’s are going to need maybe 3 openings on the 40 man roster just to protect some arms that should attract a lot of interest in the Rule 5 draft. Pedro Figueroa hasn’t advanced past High-A ball but he’s a lefty with a low-90’s fastball. Brad Kilby is another lefty who’s put up back-to-back quality campaigns in Sacramento’s bullpen. Fautino De Los Santos is still trying to bounce back from 2008 TJ surgery but he wouldn’t last long if the A’s made him available for the Rule 5 draft. Jason Ray is in the same boat but I don’t think there’s much risk of someone grabbing him and keeping him on a 25 man roster all season.

There’s also a chance the A’s might be interested in bringing back Brett Tomko or Justin Duchscherer next season. Dan Giese should be fully recovered in time for next season; maybe the A’s are still interested in him as a swing man type. Plus, guys like Sam Demel and James Simmons could be knocking on the door next season and they’d need a spot on the 40 man to do so. Like I said, I could see 3-4 spots going to the guys I just listed and we haven’t even looked outside the organization to find help.

The hitting side of things is even more in flux.

Kurt Suzuki, Landon Powell, Eric Chavez (who?) Mark Ellis, Daric Barton, Travis Buck, Aaron Cunningham, Rajai Davis, Scott Hairston, Ryan Sweeney, Jack Cust, Tommy Everidge, Cliff Pennington and Gregorio Petit have spots on the 40 man roster. (Although I’m not sure if Petit has another minor league option available to him in 2010… if someone has a conclusive answer I’d appreciate hearing it.) C Anthony Recker is the most prominent bat in the A’s system that would be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter and I’m not sure if the A’s would consider his departure to be a great loss. So any Recker fans out there can protect him on their 40 man lists, but I’m thinking the A’s leave him off the protected roster. Chris Denorfia and Eric Patterson are both out of options, so if they aren’t in Oakland come Opening Day there’s a good chance they’ll be playing for another organization in 2010. I can maybe see Patterson as a back-up at 2B and in the outfield but I’ve got to squint and angle my head to one side to see it. I think it’s more likely that the A’s will try to bring back Adam Kennedy to serve as a deluxe back-up option/veteran mentor type.

The real twist comes when you consider the minor league bats that the A’s have in AA or higher that aren’t yet on the 40 man roster. Sean Doolittle, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Donaldson, Corey Brown, Chris Carter and Brett Wallace highlight the next wave of Oakland offense… which could be much more refreshing than the current ripple in the still waters we’ve experienced as of late. Yet again we haven’t looked outside the current organization to determine if maybe there’s another bat to be had.

So bring back Kennedy, add the newbies and you’re looking at 38-39 players on the 40 man roster before the Rule 5 draft. Does anyone see any glaring omissions?

Until the next time...

The Value of Prospects Revisited

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 03 Aug 2009 14:32:14 -0000

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1. J.D. Drew
2. Rick Ankiel (as a pitcher)
3. Eric Chavez
4. Bruce Chen
5. Brad Penny
6. Michael Barrett
7. Ryan Anderson
8. Pablo Ozuna
9. Ruben Mateo
10. Matt Clement

Does this list mean anything to you? Joe Posnanski at Inside Baseball for SI.com tells us that it is the Baseball America's Top Ten prospect list from 10 years ago. How many guys on this list, he asks would you not have risked giving up for a superstar Cy Young pitcher? It kind of makes you think the value of prospects has gotten skewed lately in placing too much value in them. But, and it's a big but-the second 10 names on that same list include Roy Halladay, Lance Berkman and Carlos Beltran. So, trading away prospects by a team wanting to win today is always a risk.

The reason you see John Smoltz's picture in this post is to bring home the never-resolved issue of prospects-for-stars debate. In 1987 the Tigers were in a tight race but needed a proven starter to bolster their rotation. They traded prospect Smoltz for 36-year old Doyle Alexander.

He had not pitched particularly well for almost two years. He had played for eight teams in his Magellan-like career, and he played for the Yankees twice. On top of that, he was not exactly known for his clutch pitching*. There were a lot of reasons to think that Alexander would not be much of a factor.

*Alexander's postseason numbers were abominable -- he was 0-3 with a 7.65 ERA in the playoffs and World Series. And that year in the playoffs, he would get bombed in both his starts.

Instead, he was THE factor. Alexander was great -- in the regular season at least. He started 11 times in the final month and a half as Detroit and Toronto went back and forth in the standings. And ... Detroit won all 11 times he started. It was remarkable. He threw three complete-game shutouts. He punched up a 1.53 ERA. On Sept. 27, with the Tigers 2 1/2 games behind Toronto, he threw 10 2/3 innings and gave up only one earned run to beat the Blue Jays. His next start, he beat the Jays again to push the Tigers into first place to stay.

It was one of the greatest pennant race performances in the history of the game. You never want to give too much credit to one player, but Detroit won the American League East in 1987 because of the Doyle Alexander trade. There was much joy in Detroit. Then the Tigers lost the ALCS to Minnesota in five games.

The Tigers did not win the pennant that year but they undeniably got as far as they did with the sizable contribution they got from Alexander. Smoltz, of course went on to have an impressive career but he was not ready at that time to fill the role Doyle Alexander did.

The way prospects are brought along by teams now, with signing bonuses and what-not, it's not as easy to give them up unless the post-season is in sight-and even then....

This debate never ends. Feel free to weigh in with your opinions..

Matt Holliday Traded to Cardinals; Brett Wallace Comes Back to A's

Tyler Bleszinski — Fri, 24 Jul 2009 16:37:48 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Oh Mr. Holliday, we hardly knew ye. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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The Matt Holliday era in Oakland is over. OK so Matt Holliday wasn't exactly Ryan Langerhans. Or Michael Barrett in terms of his A's career. But it was pretty damn short.

But you have to love this deal if you're an A's fan. Brett Wallace is considered one of the best prospects in baseball, SB Nation's own John Sickels giving him an A- for a rating (and Sickels is notoriously stingy with his grades). The only knock on Wallace appear to be his defense, but almost everyone seems to think he's going to be a true cornerstone offensive player and sooner rather than later.

I'm guessing the more casual A's fans (are there any of those left?) might not understand why the A's would deal Holliday rather than trying to sign a bat like his to a long-term deal, I think this is a deal that makes a ton of sense for the A's because they're filling a desperate hole at the hot corner. And I think you can safely assume that Eric Chavez is likely done for good. So it took a lot of shuffling of assets (Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street and now Holliday) but the A's finally have what seems like a bona fide long-term answer for their woes on the left-side of the infield. Or at least half of the problem on that side. Now there's always the chance that Wallace might not work out, but I'm still pretty thrilled to be getting a player who appears like as much of a sure thing as you can get in a prospect. And it also gives the A's the opportunity to finally figure out what they actually have in their outfield. Like is Travis Buck for real or was his rookie year a fluke? Will Aaron Cunningham take another step forward?

Now one top prospect doesn't make the A's contenders, but it moves more in line with the young team progressing as they should. The key here is cost control as well. The A's weren't ready to have a guy like Holliday around for a while. And this way they're moving towards that great, young, cost-controlled team that they started building towards a couple of years ago. They clearly have the pitching and now they've addressed one part of the left side of the infield conundrum. They may still address the shortstop position with Orlando Cabrera being dealt as well, but it's been such a question mark for the A's for so long with the will he or won't he Eric Chavez question that it's nice to feel some great hope there.

This is a great deal for the A's and I'm excited to see Wallace don the green and gold.