SB Nation - Brett Myers

Astros Hot Stove Rumors

davoag — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 20:57:40 -0000

Have you seen this man? He's a possible closer, maybe a starter...

Since it seems all the rage to link the Houston Astros to all sorts of guys in the rumor mill this offseason, how about we do a quick recap of what exactly is going on and how those guys potentially fit with the team.

Brett Myers -- DyingQuail has done a good job of tracking down whether Myers would be viewed as a starter or a reliever. He got a tweet response from Alyson Footer that said Wade is considering Myers as a starter foremost, but his versatility as a reliever is also a plus. The Astros realistically have one spot open in the rotation, unless they bump Moehler to long relief. Myers is coming off a season where he earned 12 million in the last year of a three-year, 25.75M deal. Safe to say he doesn't get that this offseason. [I'm pretty sure that the owner who cuts Julio Lugo days after he is charged with spousal battery yet brings in Myers loses all moral high ground in perpetuity]

J.J. Putz - Putz was a legitimately great reliever in 2007, a good one in 2008 and a injury-ridden one in 2009. Ed Wade's most recent comments to Brian McTaggart suggest that the Astros interest is at just a 'checking-in' phase. Putz could fill in nicely as a back of the bullpen guy, though it's too soon to tell whether his struggles last season were because of injury or because he couldn't move back into a setup role.

Placido Polanco - Reportedly, Polanco has signed a three-year deal with the Phillies. That seems a tad too long for me and probably wouldn't have fit the Astros long-term plans. Still, a player who can hit for a high average would look good at the top of the Astros order. Looks like that's what Philadelphia gets instead.

Joe Crede - Again, the Crede speculation won't go away. We've discussed him numerous times before, but it seems that a third baseman with his glove could really help the team, though the flashing 'Back Injury!' sign that accompanies him does prove problematic. I don't see a Crede signing swinging the 2010 season for the Astros, but he might prove useful if he's healthy.

Random group of closers (Fernando Rodney, Rafael Soriano, Mike Gonzalez, Kevin Gregg) - No one here jumps out as a great replacement for Valverde, though they all should be fairly cheap. Ed Wade has expressed interest in this group as possibilities in case they don't re-sign their own guys, but I honestly don't forsee anyone in this group really holding down a closer's job reliably next season.

Thursday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up

DyingQuail — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 15:29:43 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Brett Myers throws in the first inning of a baseball game with the Florida Marlins, Wednesday, May 27, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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I'm saddened by the fact that yesterday was, historically, the hottest day of the hot stove and the only news the Astros announced was signing Casey Diagle to a minor league contract and offering him an invite to spring training. The plus side to this, is that anyone who does attend Spring Training is likely to get a lot of Jennie Finch sightings (does Diagle resent the fact that his wife has about 100x more success than he does or does she resent him for having a legitimate professional league?).

The derth of meaningful transactions didn't mean that there weren't rumors swirling around what Ed Wade will do with his allowance. Although davoag posted to this link yesterday, the distinction I'd like to draw from the Brett Myers rumors is that the Astros want to sign him as a relief pitcher (see the emphasized portion of the photo caption). Since the Charlie Brown Christmas Special was on TV the other night, I have only this to say: Good Grief. What does it say about your team and your relationship with it, when even in rumors, that apparently have no substantiation, they manage to annoy you? Oh yeah, and we're also giving J.J. Putz the once over.

In exciting things to hear about, the Astros are seriously considering Placido Polanco as a candidate to solve our infield woes. Even more exciting, is that RJ Anderson broke Palanco down and deemed him one of the most interesting-under-the-radar free agents of the offseason.

Remember when we did that whole community projection project thing last year? I do because it ate through hours of my life. Well FanGraphs is raising the bar with their version of community projections this year. The more participation, the cooler this will be...(I just pushed my glasses back up my schnoz, inadvertently, but perfectly timed).

Also, while we're talking projections, every system has it's reputation. Bill James is too hitter friendly, PECOTA hates pitchers, etc. The gentlemen at Walk-off Walk indulge our fascination with projections, but poke fun at both the systems and ourselves. As a disclaimer, if you laugh at this, you're a giant baseball-nerd too.

I know that there are an disproportionate amount of lawyers, law students, former laywers/law students in the audience, so this legal analysis of how booth reviews are systemically structured in sports should appeal to you.

Put these links on your list of "I will reference these often as we discuss free agents this offseason":

Ok, you're properly armed.

Astros, Rangers interested in Brett Myers

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 01:00:34 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

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Free agent pitchers Brett Myers is drawing interest from the Astros and Rangers, ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick is reporting. While Myers has not put up the best numbers recently, his versatility certainly makes him attractive.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brett Myers	4-3	18	10	0	0	0	0	70.2	74	38	38	18	23	50	4.84	1.37

The Astros are in dire need of help in the rotation and bullpen, and Myers would certainly give them more options. With Jose Valverde and LaTroy Hawkins on the open market, Myers would give the Astros a fallback if they can't afford both.

Wednesday Afternoon Astros Hot Stove Links

davoag — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 21:34:06 -0000

More photos » by George Nikitin - AP

The rumor mill just keeps on churnin'...

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What's weird about the past couple of days is there have been a TON of baseball-related stories, but not a whole lot going on. Sure, Kelly Shoppach gets traded for a PTBNL and Billy Wagner signs a one-year deal with the Braves. Other than that? Just a bunch of clubs offering arbitration. Does that mean we won't bring you all these links, though? Not in the least.

Rumors swirled this afternoon that the Astros were in on Brett Myers and J.J. Putz. Brian McTaggart talked with Ed Wade and finds out...nothing? Is there any GM that plays the offseason closer to the vest than Wade? In case you missed it, Wade will be on Astroline tonight at 6 p.m. Send your questions to Alyson Footer on twitter and she'll ask Wade about them tonight.

Richard Justice says the Astros will be just fine with not re-signing any of their free agents. I have nothing of value to say about this other than to check back tomorrow; his opinion will have changed again.

Here is Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors take on the Astros arbitration choices. Very similar to most of the analysis on here, though it could just be that we're all grasping at straws to understand what this front office does.

Here's an interesting article about Michael Bourn. Sure, it's about fantasy baseball but hey, any national pub for the Astros is a good thing, right? I didn't draft Bourn for my team this season, but I did pick him up in April. I don't expect him to be available in April next season.

Craig Calcaterra's take on the news that Dennis Gilbert may be the new owner of the Texas Rangers. Sounds like Gilbert should be an easy choice by the rest of MLB, but the real benefit for the Astros is that Nolan Ryan won't be part of the new ownership group. That means it's unlikely Round Rock becomes a Rangers affiliate after their deal with the Astros expires after 2010.

This is a story about the Yankees managerial hiring process in 2008. Really interesting part about what Cashman asked the managers to do re: the lineups. I wonder if Wade and Tal Smith did something similar...

So, let me get this straight...the Twins, a small market team if there every was one, offered Carl Pavano arbitration even though he had a 5.00 ERA last season? But the Astros couldn't afford to offer Hawkins or Tejada?

Is this the natural progression after amphetamines were banned? Because I'm sure none of those players share their medication with the other guys in the locker room...I know college kids will buy stuff like Adderol to study for exams, so we're sure the MLB players are following the straight and true path with this? I'm just sayin'...

Finally, Project Prospect's Top 15 Catchers...nice to see Castro so highly placed and it's interesting that he's the top rated catcher who's also solid defensively. I can live with line drive power if he hits for average and is great behind the plate.

Congratulations ScottAZ -- Winner of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest

David S. Cohen — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 18:46:07 -0000

The World Series is over, and the results of the 2009 Good Phight World Series Prediction Contest are in. Congratulations to ScottAZ for getting 6 points in the context. FuquaManuel tied ScottAZ, but as the rules state, I did a random drawing and ScottAZ won. I'll be contacting ScottAZ shortly about the prize.

Here are the answers to each question asked in the contest.

Cliff Lee wins: 2
Ryan Howard home runs: 1
Shane Victorino and Jimmy Rollins stolen bases (combined total): 3
Eric Bruntlett plate appearances: 1
Phillies starting pitcher innings not by Cliff Lee or Pedro Martinez: 10.3
Brett Myers innings pitched: 1
Jimmy Rollins walks: 5
Brad Lidge saves: 0
Alex Rodriguez hits with runners in scoring position: 2
Mariano Rivera runs allowed: 0
World Series outcome (victor and # of games): Yankees in 6

A couple of entries are worth noting. Sept.28.Oct.27.Dec.28.2008 had 5 points, the highest point total for an entry not guessing the correct outcome of the Series. (Both ScottAZ and FuquaManuel guessed Yankees in 6, which was worth 3 points.) And Phils 2036 World CH guessed correctly that Jimmy Rollins would have 5 walks, something I consider an absurd guess and outcome!

Thanks to all for playing. Let's do this again next October!

Leave Brett Myers On The Scrap Heap

James Kannengieser — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 10:00:17 -0000

Brett Myers's Phillies tenure officially ended this past week and he will be a free agent. The controversial righty made it known after a meeting with general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.:

I officially won’t be a Phillie next year.

Myers tore a labrum in his hip this past season, requiring surgery. Usually a starting pitcher, he was placed in the bullpen upon returning in September and struggled (7 IP, 4:3 K/BB, 6.43 ERA). He is in the group of talented but risky starting pitchers available this offseason, including Rich Harden, Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard. These types likely won't garner large contracts or multi-year deals but are worth considering (especially Harden, a personal favorite). When deciding whether to pursue Myers there are 2 factors to consider: his on-field performance and off-the-field performance.

A quick look at Myers's defense independent pitching stats shows us his biggest problem - home runs:

Year	IP	FIP	xFIP	tERA
2005	215.1	4.06	3.49	4.93
2006	198	4.14	3.89	4.31
2007*	68.2	3.75	3.31	3.90
2008	190	4.52	4.01	4.96
2009	70.2	6.14	4.39	6.50

* - Myers pitched out of the bullpen for almost all of 2007

Generally xFIP is the best or 2nd best statistic for evaluating a pitcher's luck-independent performance. It normalizes the highly variable home run rate based on the number of fly balls a pitcher allows. In this case, it might not be so useful. Myers is consistently among the league leaders in home runs allowed per fly ball, and his career HR/9 of 1.35 seems like a reflection of his true talent level rather than the bad luck that xFIP suggests. Citizens Bank Park is a bandbox but about half of the home runs he's allowed in his career have come on the road, so small home field dimensions are not solely to blame. Aside from home runs, Myers is a solid pitcher - K/BB of 2.39 and ground-ball rate of 47.3% for his career.

At age 29 and coming off a full offseason of rest, it wouldn't be aggressive to think Myers can be an average starting pitcher next season. He's also open to pitching in relief. Given his affinity for ~~southern~~ redneck culture, who knows if he would even consider signing with the Mets. It might be a decent, low-cost signing on paper. In reality, Myers is a player the Mets should, and likely will, avoid.

In June 2006, Myers was arrested for punching his wife in the face while in Boston for a Phillies-Red Sox series. Although his wife Kim eventually had the charges dropped, the fact remains that this 6'4" 225 lbs. man punched his wife in the face in a public setting. Outstanding Brett, we'll get you a(nother) case of beer for that one.

Maybe this is a tad hypocritical coming from someone who advocated signing Barry Bonds and trading for Milton Bradley, but on my moral continuum women-beating is far worse than steroid use or tantrum throwing. If Brett Myers signed with the Mets I would openly root against him.

Phillies will not re-sign Brett Myers

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 19:59:48 -0000

More photos » by Eddie Michels - AP

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The Philadelphia Inquirer is reporting that the Phillies have informed pitcher Brett Myers that they will not attempt to re-sign him this offseason.

`I officially won’t be a Phillie next year,’’ the 29-year-old pitcher told The Inquirer this afternoon.

Myers, who has been pretty open about wanting to stay in Philadelphia, will search for a new home.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Brett Myers	4-3	18	10	0	0	0	0	70.2	74	38	38	18	23	50	4.84	1.37

The Astros could be an option for the right-handed pitcher, who owns a 4.40 ERA in 8 professional seasons.

How Did They Do That?

dajafi — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 04:02:53 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Ryan Madson: last man standing of the Phillies' 2008 pitching stalwarts. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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Not quite 24 hours after the Phillies saw their season come to an end one day and two wins before we hoped it would, my disappointment at the conclusion is starting to give way to something like amazement that they got as close as they did. Of arguably the six most important Phillies pitchers from the 2008 championship run--starters Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Jamie Moyer, and relievers Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero--a stunning five saw their contributions plummet in the season that just ended.

By contrast, consider the last NL team to win back-to-back pennants: the Atlanta Braves of the mid-1990s. The world champion 1995 Braves boasted a rotation led by future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, who combined for 47 wins and 601 innings that season. Their bullpen was anchored by closer Mark Wohlers (204 ERA+) and setup men Greg McMichael (153) and Brad Clontz (117). The '96 Braves, who also lost their repeat bid to the Yankees in six games, had a pitching staff led by... Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Wohlers, McMichael and Clontz. The three starters combined for 54 wins and an amazing 724 innings; Wohlers (ERA+ 145) and McMichael (136) were strong again, though Clontz (77) was much less effective. To sum up, the top five pitchers powered the Atlanta pennant-winners in both years.

Which brings us to the 2008-2009 Phillies.

In '08, Hamels, Myers and Moyer combined for 40 wins and 613.2 innings in the regular season (plus 6 wins and 65.2 innings through the three rounds of the playoffs). Lidge pitched to a superlative ERA+ of 225; Madson (144) and Romero (160) were great as well, and came up even bigger in the playoffs. A year later, Hamels went from "Darth Vader in spikes," as the Braves broadcasters (in perhaps the sole contribution to humankind) once dubbed him, to a young pitcher struggling with command and composure. Myers looked like he might challenge Bert Blyleven's single season home run record through a middling month and a half, then got hurt. Moyer pitched his way out of the rotation, remade himself as a surprisingly effective long reliever, then suffered a season-ending injury in September. They combined for 26 wins and 426.1 innings during the season, and Hamels added another victory in October. Lidge... well, you know about Lidge: his 2009 campaign was arguably the worst any closer has ever suffered through. His ERA+ was *59*. That's not a misprint. Romero missed the first fifty games of the season with a suspension for taking illegal supplements, briefly returned and was middling, then got hurt and missed the last month plus the playoffs. Only Madson stood tall again, with an ERA+ of 131. They were the anti-Braves.

That the Phils came within two wins of raising another championship banner anyway has to be credited mostly to GM Ruben Amaro Jr., whose late July trade for Cliff Lee and bargain-price signing of Pedro Martinez saved the rotation and who gave the bullpen a crucial boost in the person of Chan Ho Park. Manager Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee, who got great work from J.A. Happ and small but important contributions from the likes of Antonio Bastardo, Rodrigo Lopez, Tyler Walker and Kyle Kendrick over the course of the year, deserve kudos as well.

It's unclear what, if anything, this means for the future. Certainly there's every reason to hope Hamels will return to form, and Lidge and Romero seem decent bets to rebound from their miserable 2009 campaigns even if neither recaptures the heights of '08. Myers is a free agent who might or might not be back; Moyer will turn 47 this month and will be attempting to rebound from a fairly severe injury. But if you'd tried to sell the story eight months ago that the 2009 Phils would see five of their top six pitchers from the championship run essentially melt down, yet still win the pennant and take the World Series to six games, you likely would have had few believers.

Cubs' Ted Lilly undergoes shoulder surgery

Eli Greenspan — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 02:19:46 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

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Bad News Cubs.

Bruce Miles of the Arlington Heights Daily Herald is reporting that Cubs pitcher Ted Lilly underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery yesterday and could miss the start of the regular season. Lilly, who has been the Cubs' most reliable starter in recent years, says he hopes to start throwing in four months.

"The idea is maybe to start throwing in four months or so," he said. "A lot of that is going to be dictated on just how the rehab goes. That can change one way or another. My intention is to get back as soon as I can without setting myself back."

Since signing with the Cubs, Lilly has gone 44-26 with a 3.67 ERA. Entering a contract year in 2010, you can bet that Lilly wants to get back to the mound as soon as possible.

How will this impact the Cubs' moves this offseason?

The Cubs are not expected to bring back Rich Harden, meaning a spot will open up in the rotation. Currently, the rotation will look something like this: Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Ryan Dempster, Randy Wells, and either Tom Gorzelanny or Jeff Samardzija.

With Lilly out, it seems even more imperative that the Cubs bring in a veteran arm to give the Cubs some stability at the back-end of their rotation. Free agent pitcher Randy Wolf could be an option for that role.

Other options include Javier Vazquez of the Braves through a trade, or free agents Justin Duchscherer, Brett Myers, or Joel Piniero.

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

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John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.