SB Nation - Ryan Madson

Some 3 AM Jose Reyes Appreciation

James Kannengieser — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 08:00:43 -0000

It's a sad state of affairs when the ranking of the top Mets moments of 2009 goes something like this:

1. Omir Santos's 9th inning home run off Jonathan Papelbon to beat the Red Sox
2. David Wright's 9th inning home run off Ryan Madson to beat the Phillies
3. Jose Reyes's WFAN interview
4. That time Jeremy Reed hit a single

I'll take any victories with this Mets organization, no matter how small, and the Reyes interview was one of them. Something about the interview made me giddy, a rare feeling. Maybe it was the confidence Reyes projected in answering Mike Francesa's questions. Maybe it was the baseball intelligence he demonstrated by discussing the importance of drawing walks (you listening, new face of the franchise?) and how his numbers stack up vs. other shortstops. Maybe it was just nice to be distracted from work for an hour in my cubicle. It was pleasing to see so many other fans share these sentiments and support the longest tenured Met who is still just 26(!) years old. It's a really cheesy thing to say, but life as a Mets fan is better when Jose Reyes is around.

Jose is not my favorite Met - that title belongs to Carlos Beltran. But there is no Met I root harder for than Jose, if that makes sense. There's something satisfying about watching a born and bred Met play like a superstar, as he did from 2006-2008. Jose hinted that he is very aware of how the fans view him and I almost wish he wasn't. It's this foolishly negative perception that may have driven him too hard to try to come back this season from injury. Hopefully on Opening Day 2010 he will be regaled with a standing ovation to kick off what is ideally another All-Star caliber season. If there's any reason to buy tickets next season, it's Jose Reyes.

How Did They Do That?

dajafi — Fri, 06 Nov 2009 04:02:53 -0000

More photos » by Bill Kostroun - AP

Ryan Madson: last man standing of the Phillies' 2008 pitching stalwarts. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun)

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Not quite 24 hours after the Phillies saw their season come to an end one day and two wins before we hoped it would, my disappointment at the conclusion is starting to give way to something like amazement that they got as close as they did. Of arguably the six most important Phillies pitchers from the 2008 championship run--starters Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Jamie Moyer, and relievers Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero--a stunning five saw their contributions plummet in the season that just ended.

By contrast, consider the last NL team to win back-to-back pennants: the Atlanta Braves of the mid-1990s. The world champion 1995 Braves boasted a rotation led by future Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz, who combined for 47 wins and 601 innings that season. Their bullpen was anchored by closer Mark Wohlers (204 ERA+) and setup men Greg McMichael (153) and Brad Clontz (117). The '96 Braves, who also lost their repeat bid to the Yankees in six games, had a pitching staff led by... Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Wohlers, McMichael and Clontz. The three starters combined for 54 wins and an amazing 724 innings; Wohlers (ERA+ 145) and McMichael (136) were strong again, though Clontz (77) was much less effective. To sum up, the top five pitchers powered the Atlanta pennant-winners in both years.

Which brings us to the 2008-2009 Phillies.

In '08, Hamels, Myers and Moyer combined for 40 wins and 613.2 innings in the regular season (plus 6 wins and 65.2 innings through the three rounds of the playoffs). Lidge pitched to a superlative ERA+ of 225; Madson (144) and Romero (160) were great as well, and came up even bigger in the playoffs. A year later, Hamels went from "Darth Vader in spikes," as the Braves broadcasters (in perhaps the sole contribution to humankind) once dubbed him, to a young pitcher struggling with command and composure. Myers looked like he might challenge Bert Blyleven's single season home run record through a middling month and a half, then got hurt. Moyer pitched his way out of the rotation, remade himself as a surprisingly effective long reliever, then suffered a season-ending injury in September. They combined for 26 wins and 426.1 innings during the season, and Hamels added another victory in October. Lidge... well, you know about Lidge: his 2009 campaign was arguably the worst any closer has ever suffered through. His ERA+ was *59*. That's not a misprint. Romero missed the first fifty games of the season with a suspension for taking illegal supplements, briefly returned and was middling, then got hurt and missed the last month plus the playoffs. Only Madson stood tall again, with an ERA+ of 131. They were the anti-Braves.

That the Phils came within two wins of raising another championship banner anyway has to be credited mostly to GM Ruben Amaro Jr., whose late July trade for Cliff Lee and bargain-price signing of Pedro Martinez saved the rotation and who gave the bullpen a crucial boost in the person of Chan Ho Park. Manager Charlie Manuel and pitching coach Rich Dubee, who got great work from J.A. Happ and small but important contributions from the likes of Antonio Bastardo, Rodrigo Lopez, Tyler Walker and Kyle Kendrick over the course of the year, deserve kudos as well.

It's unclear what, if anything, this means for the future. Certainly there's every reason to hope Hamels will return to form, and Lidge and Romero seem decent bets to rebound from their miserable 2009 campaigns even if neither recaptures the heights of '08. Myers is a free agent who might or might not be back; Moyer will turn 47 this month and will be attempting to rebound from a fairly severe injury. But if you'd tried to sell the story eight months ago that the 2009 Phils would see five of their top six pitchers from the championship run essentially melt down, yet still win the pennant and take the World Series to six games, you likely would have had few believers.

Chatting with the enemy: A Q&A with 'The Good Phight'

Ed Valentine — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 19:12:17 -0000

With the clock ticking toward Wednesday night's Game 1 of the World Series between our New York Yankees and the Philadelphia ~~soon to be ex-champs~~, er, Phillies I reached out to the folks over at SB Nation's Phillies blog 'The Good Phight.' Here is the result of our Q&A.

Pinstripe Alley: Not to insult Tampa Bay, but I guess I am insulting Tampa Bay. Does this series, being against the Yankees hold a little more excitement, mystique, aura -- whatever you want to call it -- than facing the Rays in 2008?

The Good Phight: I would say it’s more the idea of going for two in a row than it is playing the Yankees. It’s the difference between being a "nice story" and being elevated to all-time great status. Particularly for a franchise with a pretty moribund history like the Phillies, it’s a pretty big deal. I do think that having more eyeballs on the Series, by virtue of playing the Yankees, changes things a bit. The tree fell in the woods, so to speak, in 2008, but in 2009, it will really make a sound.

Pinstripe Alley: Does being the defending World Champion give the Phillies any sort of advantage heading into the series? Oh, and how do traditionally ornery Philadelphia fans deal with all this prosperity?

The Good Phight: I don’t really believe there’s a palpable advantage outside of perhaps the preparation for the media onslaught, and playing on the big stage. Most of the roster has been there before, so they know what to expect, so they can focus on baseball. Whether that gives them any kind of "advantage" in the Series over the Yankees, who deal with the media microscope year-round, is difficult to determine. As to "success," I could get used to it. It’s different than with Boston, where losing seemed to define the fanbase for so long that finally winning radically altered the tone of the "Nation" (ugh). Most fans can either remember 1980, or were at least aware that it was recent enough that it wasn’t some abstract concept. The 2009 season seems to be the year where the Phillies really started acting like one of the "big boys" in the league, throwing their weight around with player acquisition (getting the best pitcher at the deadline in Cliff Lee, coaxing Pedro Martinez back into the league, etc.). The Phillies had been spending pretty big for awhile, but the legitimacy conferred by a World Championship really changed everything.

Pinstripe Alley: Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson have not exactly been sure things at the end of games. Do you feel confident the Phillies can close out games, or do the Yankees have an advantage in the late innings of tight games?

The Good Phight: Well, the best closer on the planet, ever, lives in the Bronx, so it’d be hard to say the Yankees don’t have an advantage in that regard. Let’s just say that I’m hopeful that Brad Lidge and the bullpen can keep it together for a few more games and not screw anything up too badly. The Yankees certainly have the advantage with Mariano Rivera, but if Lidge has "found it" and can be close to his 2008 self, that advantage will certainly be much smaller.

Pinstripe Alley: How big of an acquisition has Cliff Lee been for the Phillies?

The Good Phight: Simply huge. The anointed ace, Cole Hamels, has had a well-publicized off-year, due in great part to some bad luck, and probably thanks to his huge 2008 workload. Lee has taken the pressure off Hamels to be the stopper and given the Phillies the bonafide ace they haven’t had since Curt Schilling. And, with this World Series, he projects to nearly neutralize the Yankees’ deployment of CC Sabathia, which levels the playing field quite a bit.

Pinstripe Alley: In which area do you think the Yankees are superior to the Phillies? Is there one Yankee weakness you see that you think Philadelphia can exploit?

The Good Phight: As discussed previously, the back of the bullpen is a clear Yankees advantage. The Yankees lineup is better, but not by the huge margin one might expect. And that advantage will be mitigated somewhat in Philadelphia, where the Yankees have to pull one of their hitters and let their pitchers bat. As far as Yankee weaknesses, middle relief has been something of a problem recently, with the struggles of Boy Wonders Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain. Having a closer who can give you two innings on any given night cuts into that problem just a bit, though. The Phillies are a patient hitting ballclub; if they can make the starters throw lots of pitches, and knock them out in the middle innings, the Phillies might be able to exploit the Yankees middle relief problems.

Pinstripe Alley: Which player is the most important Phillie in this series?

The Good Phight: Cliff Lee. There are hints that he might be matching Sabathia in games 1, 4, and 7. If he can neutralize Sabathia in those games, it greatly improves the Phillies’ chances of winning.

Pinstripe Alley: Series prediction? Likely MVP?

The Good Phight: Naturally I’m going with the Phillies, and it’ll be six games. The Phillies’ deeper rotation will afford them the flexibility to make adjustments, including slotting certain starters into the bullpen, and the Phillies’ better overall team defense and baserunning will give them the narrowest edge in a pretty closely matched World Series. Cliff Lee is my Series MVP.

In all seriousness, this shapes up as a fabulous World Series. The defending champs vs. the team considered to be baseball's best throughout the regular season. Plenty of stars on both teams. Plenty of reasons for fans of both teams to think their team will win. Head over to The Good Phight to chat up Phillies fans, and see my answers to their questions. Just remember to do it with some class. Represent PA the right way. Please.

Are The Dodgers On The Verge Of A Phillies-Like Run?

Eric Stephen — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 15:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

The next three years should be sweet for the dynamic duo of Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, and the Dodgers

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Losing to the same team in the playoffs for two years in a row is awful. It takes a psychological toll, at least on the fans, that the losing team can't get over the hump. The Dodgers lost to the Phillies in last year's NLCS in five games. This year they improved by 11 wins in the regular season, gained home field advantage in the playoffs, and the result was the same. Phillies. Five games. Thanks for playing.

It is times like these that it is best to take a step back to take the long view of the situation. Rather than focus on the failure of losing twice to the Phillies, it is important to note just what the Dodgers have accomplished in these last two years. They are a young, growing team, that had the best record in the National League this season. Rather than focus energy on what roster moves need to be made to get past the Philadelphia road block, a better option would be to look at the Phillies themselves, and the parallels with this Dodger team.

From 2007 to 2009, the Phillies have led the National League with 274 wins, have won three straight division titles, one World Series, and are back this year to defend their crown. Here is a look at the nucleus of those teams, and their ages during this great run:

Pos	Player	2007-2009 Ages	WAR
2B	Chase Utley	28-30	23.8
SS	Jimmy Rollins	28-30	14.4
OF	Jayson Werth	28-30	13.4
1B	Ryan Howard	27-29	12.5
SP	Cole Hamels	23-25	12.2
OF	Shane Victorino	26-28	10.4
RP	Ryan Madson	26-28	3.1
P	Brett Myers	26-28	2.9

The Phillies have really done well to capitalize on the prime years of their best players. The Dodgers have a window with the current nucleus until roughly 2012, the final year of arbitration eligibility for six of their main cogs (plus Jonathan Broxton can become a free agent after 2011). Let's take a look at the ages of the Dodgers' best players for the next three years, to compare it to the Phillies:

Pos	Player	2010-2012 Ages	2009 WAR
OF	Matt Kemp	25-27	5.1
SP	Clayton Kershaw	22-24	4.2
SP	Chad Billingsley	25-27	3.1
RP	Jonathan Broxton	26-28	2.9
OF	Andre Ethier	28-30	2.6
C	Russell Martin	27-29	2.1
1B	James Loney	26-28	1.4

That is a strong core to build around. If the Dodgers can take advantage of the prime seasons of their young stars, like the Phillies did, they will be in great shape. The Phillies are still going to be good next season. But, as many Phillies start to hit the wrong side of 30 years old, their window will close, while the younger Dodgers will keep improving.

The Phillies may have been the team of the last three years in the National League, but if you want a team for the next three, look to the Dodgers.

Player Origins of the 2009 Philadelphia Phillies

John Sickels — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 19:03:13 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Philadelphia Phillies infielder Jimmy Rollins, drafted in the second round in 1996.(AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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Philadelphia Phillies: Player Origins

Here are the player development origins of the 2009 National League Champion Philadelphia Phillies.

PITCHERS:

Antonio Bastardo, LHP: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2005.

Joe Blanton, RHP: Drafted by the Oakland Athletics in the first round in 2002, from the University of Kentucky. Acquired by the Phillies in a trade with Oakland in July 2008.

Chad Durbin, RHP: Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the third round in 1996, from high school in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in December 2007.

Scott Eyre, RHP: Drafted by the Texas Rangers in the ninth round in 1991, from the Junior College of Southern Idaho. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Cubs in August 2008.

Cole Hamels, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2002, out of high school in San Diego, California.

J.A. Happ, LHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the third round in 2004, from Northwestern University.

Cliff Lee, LHP: Drafted by the Montreal Expos in the fourth round in 2000, from the University of Arkansas. Acquired in a trade with the Indians this summer.

Brad Lidge, RHP: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the first round in 1998, from the University of Notre Dame. Acquired in a trade with the Astros in November 2007.

Ryan Madson, RHP: Drafted by the Phillies in the ninth round in 1998, out of high school in Moreno Valley, California.

Pedro Martinez, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1988. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Chan Ho Park, RHP: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent from South Korea in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent.

POSITION PLAYERS

Paul Bako, C: Drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the fifth round in 1993, out of the University of Southwestern Louisiana. The Phillies signed him as a free agent this year.

Eric Bruntlett, INF: Drafted by the Houston Astros in the ninth round in 2000, out of Stanford University. The Phillies got him in a trade with Houston in 2007.

Miguel Cairo, INF: Signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers as a free agent out of Venezuela in 1990. Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 2009.

Greg Dobbs, INF: Signed by the Seattle Mariners as an undrafted free agent from the University of Oklahoma in 2001. The Phillies claimed him on waivers in 2007.

Pedro Feliz, 3B: Signed by the San Francisco Giants as a free agent from the Dominican Republic in 1994. The Phillies signed him as a free agent in 2008.

Ben Francisco, OF: Drafted by the Cleveland Indians in the fifth round in 2002 from UCLA. The Phillies acquired him in a trade this summer with the Indians.

Ryan Howard, 1B: Drafted by the Phillies in the fifth round in 2001, from Southwest Missouri State University (now known as Missouri State University).

Raul Ibanez, OF: Drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the 36^th round in 1992, from Miami-Dade Community College-South. The Phillies signed him as a free agent last winter.

Jimmy Rollins, SS: Drafted by the Phillies in the second round in 1996, out of high school in Alameda, California.

Carlos Ruiz, C: Signed by the Phillies as a free agent in 1998, out of Panama.

Matt Stairs, OF: Signed by the Montreal Expos as an undrafted free agent in 1989, out of high school in Canada. The Phillies acquired him in a trade with the Blue Jays in 2008.

Chase Utley, 2B: Drafted by the Phillies in the first round in 2000, out of UCLA.

Shane Victorino, OF: Drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the sixth round in 1999, out of high school in Wailuku, Hawaii.. Selected in the 2005 Rule 5 draft.

Jayson Werth, OF: Drafted by the Baltimore Orioles in the first round in 1997, out of high school in Chatham, Illinois. Signed as a free agent by the Phillies in 2006.

ACQUISTIONS:

Via Trades/Waivers: Blanton, Eyre, Lee, Lidge, Bruntlett,. Dobbs, Francisco, Stairs.

Phillies Farm System Products: Bastardo, Hamels, Happ, Madson, Howard, Rollins, Ruiz, Utley.

Free Agents: Durbin, Martinez, Park, Bako, Cairo, Feliz, Ibanez, Werth.

Rule 5: Victorino.

ORIGINS

Drafted from North American high schools: Durbin (3^rd), Hamels (1^st), Madson (9^th), Rollins (2^nd), Victorino (9^th), Werth (1^st).

Drafted from junior colleges: Eyre (9^th), Ibanez (36^th)

Drafted from four-year colleges: Blanton (1^st); Happ (3^rd), Lee (4^th), Lidge (1^st), Bako (5^th), Bruntlett (9^th), Francisco (5^th), Howard (5^th), Utley (1^st)

Undrafted free agents from North America: Dobbs, Stairs

Latin Free Agents: Bastardo, Martinez, Cairo, Feliz, Ruiz

Asian Free Agents: Park

As you can see, the Phillies built their team through a variety of sources. Once the American League winner is determined, we'll analyze their roster and compare the two.

Some Thoughts After the Phillies Beat the Dodgers (and Now Have Home-Field Advantage)

David S. Cohen — Fri, 16 Oct 2009 16:30:51 -0000

With the game ending late last night and today's game starting early, the best I can muster is a notes column. With the Phillies up 1-0, here are some thoughts to take you into this afternoon's action:

• The Phillies were not supposed to score any of their runs last night:
- They scored their first three runs on a three-run home run by Carlos Ruiz, their 8-hole hitting catcher. This was Ruiz's second three-run home run of his career. His other 22 home runs (including his World Series home run last year) have been either solo shots (14) or with one man on (8).
- They scored their next two when Ryan Howard hit a two-out double against a lefty. How unlikely was this? Howard had a .653 OPS this season against lefties, and Clayton Kershaw had a .489 opponents' OPS when facing lefties.
- They scored their final three when Raul Ibanez hit a three-run home run against George Sherrill. Sherrill was even better this year against lefties than Kershaw. Sherrill had a .342 opponents' OPS when facing lefties and gave up 0 home runs.
But this is why they play the games, right?

• The Dodgers lost even though they scored 6 runs. With their pitching staff, that's incredibly rare. In fact, this year, the Dodgers went 12-1 when scoring 6 runs, losing only to the Marlins in July. They were 51-4 when scoring 6 or more runs.

• Say what you want about the Phillies' bullpen this year, but they certainly do make the games more entertaining. Last year, J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson, and Brad Lidge seemed automatic, so games were pretty much shortened to six innings. Once those three came in, you could relax and count on the win. This year, the bullpen has been anything but automatic. Even with Lidge's recent save streak, there's no forgetting his horrific regular season performance. Thus, when he comes in to save a post-season game this year, I have no doubt that every Phillies fan is on the edge of his or her seat, heart thumping a bit more quickly. When Lidge gets the final out, there's a huge sigh of relief. The ride is bumpier, which makes the end result that much more entertaining and rewarding.

• dajafi pointed out in the comments section of my entry yesterday that yesterday's game would give a huge psychological edge to whoever won it. If the Phillies won, they've continued their dominance from last post-season and the pressure today will be unbearable. If the Dodgers won, they've proven they can put last year behind them. But I think there's an added element here. Yesterday, the Dodgers threw their best at the Phillies. They pitched their three dominant lefties against our lefty-heavy lineup. And the Phillies still scored 8 runs, all of them against left-handed pitchers who slaughter left-handed hitters. When you fail with the deck stacked so heavily in your favor, the failure is that much more difficult to get over.

• Chan Ho Park looked awesome last night. According to the radar gun, he was hitting the mid-90s reliably. His pitches were perfectly located and had great movement. Ruben Amaro Jr. said that Park will be limited to an inning while he gets his strength back, but if last night is an indication of how he's going to pitch this series, the Phillies should really consider using him for multiple innings. A dominant arm like that in the bullpen will be key given the unpredictability of Madson and Lidge at this point.

• After one game:
Ryan Howard against lefties: .500/.750/1.000 for a 1.750 OPS. In four plate appearances, he has 1 long fly ball out, 1 double, and 2 walks.
Ryan Howard against righties: .000/.000/.000 for a .000 OPS. In one plate appearance, he struck out.

• I don't normally watch games with a pitch track graphic, as most of my baseball watching comes watching Phillies games and the local broadcasts don't feature it. After watching the TBS pitch track for five games now, I'm left wondering how different the game of baseball would be if umpires called the actual strikezone (assuming the pitch track shows the real zone). Umpires regularly call pitches that are inches off the plate strikes. And, I guess I've been trained by watching those calls, since those calls look like strikes to me. But, in the graphic, they aren't. If the strike zone were really called as small as it really is, the game would be radically changed.

• Finally, those announcers were horrible. Buck Martinez has a horrible voice. Ron Darling sounds like Robert deNiro (seriously). And, as someone pointed out somewhere, Chip Caray talks about fisting a whole lot. Collectively, the three of them were Dodgers' groupies. When the Dodgers were at bat, it was all about how much the Dodgers have grown this year and how the Dodgers' young hitters have learned how to hit and win without Manny Ramirez in the lineup. When the Phillies were at bat, it was all about the Dodgers' pitching staff. And hey, did you hear that the Dodgers' youngsters now know they can win without Manny Ramirez? The announcers had at least half a dozen narratives they were following for the Dodgers. I'm not even sure if they noticed the Phillies were playing last night, let alone that they were the defending World Series champs. I understand TBS and Fox are "rooting" for a Dodgers/Yankees World Series, but last night was really hard to stomach. But, maybe I should stop complaining. I've heard the Dodgers' young hitters have more confidence this year, even if Manny isn't producing, and that should make me shut up and be happy, right?

Phillies' Five Keys to the Series

David S. Cohen — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 17:40:47 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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With the NLCS rematch starting tonight, here's a look at one fan's keys to the series:

1) Cole Hamels' performance. Despite what you may have read elsewhere, Cole Hamels has not been a different pitcher in 2009 than he was in 2009. In fact, he has been an almost identical pitcher both years, as the chart below shows:

	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP
2008	7.76	2.10	1.11	3.72
2009	7.81	2.00	1.12	3.72

Thus, from an analytic standpoint, this year's Cole Hamels is the same Cole Hamels who posted a 1.93 ERA against the Dodgers last year in the NLDS, winning both games he pitched.

However, from a results standpoint, this year's Cole Hamels, as we all know, has not been the same. He has been incredibly unlucky, as the results-oriented stats show:

	BABIP	AVG	WHIP	ERA
2008	0.270	0.231	1.08	3.09
2009	0.325	0.274	1.29	4.32

And, although the first chart is the best way to evaluate Cole Hamels as an individual player, the results on the day he pitches are what matters in determining who gets a win or loss that day (of course, along with the bullpen and offensive results). The Phillies' chances against the Dodgers may very well hinge on whether the lucky Hamels of 2008 or the unlucky Hamels of 2009 shows up.

2) Bullpen usage. The really wonderful side effect of Brad Lidge's struggles has been that Charlie Manuel has started managing his bullpen in a much smarter way. He is playing matchups, even if it means sitting his closer for much of the ninth inning. He is bringing in his best relievers earlier in games. He's even using his starting pitchers in key spots when they might otherwise not be used in a short series. If Manuel keeps up this bullpen usage, the Phillies can go a long way toward negating one of the major deficiencies they have. On the other hand, if Manuel thinks that the two S's next to Brad Lidge's name in the last two box scores indicate that Lidge is now "the closer" and goes back to robotically calling on him in the ninth and trying to get Ryan Madson to always set him up in the eighth, the bullpen is likely to flail, as it did much of the season.

3) Ryan Howard's at bats against lefties. The Rockies lost to the Phillies in part because Jim Tracy didn't have the guts or brains to pull Huston Street and put a lefty on the mound to face Ryan Howard in the top of the ninth Monday night. This year, Ryan Howard was Albert Pujols (a 1.076 OPS) against righties but David Eckstein (a .653 OPS) against lefties. With all righty starters, the Rockies weren't able to neutralize Howard as much as the Dodgers will be able to in the NLDS.

The Dodgers have two lefty starters (Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf) who will probably start 4 of the first 5 or 6 games of the series. With two very good lefties in his bullpen in Hong-Chih Kuo and George Sherrill, if Joe Torre manages it correctly, in the 26ish plate appearances that Howard will probably get in the first 6 games of the series, Howard will only face righties 5 or 6 times. If Howard sees any more than that, Torre has made a major mistake. Thus, we need Howard, when he's hitting more like David Eckstein, to perform. After all, even Eckstein drives in the occasional run and hits the occasional home run.

4) Jayson Werth. Against lefties, Jayson Werth should bat cleanup. In fact, Jayson Werth should bat cleanup the entire series. That's crazy, you say? Ryan Howard is our cleanup hitter? Well, that's true most of the time, but not when he's going to be turned into David Eckstein (see previous point) for most of the series. On the other hand, Werth goes from Marlon Byrd (.806 OPS) against righties to Albert Pujols (a 1.080 OPS) against lefties. Here's the difference for Werth:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
v. RHP	0.256	0.348	0.457	0.806
v. LHP	0.302	0.436	0.644	1.080

In every way, Werth is a much better hitter against lefties. In fact, although not as drastic an absolute change as Howard's, Werth's performance against lefties puts the same quality hitter in the four-hole as Howard would be against righties.

Add in that Chase Utley actually hits lefties better than righties (.962 OPS compared to .877), and Werth hitting cleanup would keep the pressure on the Dodgers' pitchers that perfunctorily putting Howard there would alleviate. And, if Torre ignores the platoon difference and puts in a lefty to face Utley, putting Werth in between Utley and Howard gives the Phillies much more of a chance, as Torre would keep the lefty in against Werth, whereas he would probably take him out for Werth if Werth is batting after Howard.

5) Silencing Manny Ramirez. Despite the fact that the Phils won the World Series last year, most Phillies' fans probably still have nightmares of Manny Ramirez at the plate last October. In case you've purposefully pushed the memory from your mind, these were Manny's triple-slash numbers in the NLCS against the Phillies: .500/.643/1.100. This translates to a 1.743 OPS. Saying Manny was "on fire" against the Phils last October is like saying the Nationals were simply "not good" this year.

This year, Manny continued his absurd NLCS pace . . . but only for the first half of the season. In the second half of the season, Manny was a different player. In fact, he was quite human. And, as this chart shows, although he did improve a bit, his mere mortal performance continued in the NLDS against the Cardinals:

	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1st Half	0.355	0.487	0.669	1.156
2d Half	0.255	0.379	0.459	0.838
NLDS	0.308	0.357	0.538	0.896

If the 2d half and NLDS Manny shows up, the Phillies will have a much better chance of quieting the Dodgers' lineup. If the 1st half Manny, or worse, the NLCS Manny from last year, shows up, the Phillies are going to have their work cut out for them once again. Obviously, the Phillies were able to overcome that Manny last year, but it would be easier not to have to deal with that Manny.

So there you have it. If Cole Hamels' actual results are good, Charlie Manuel continues to strategically use his bullpen, Ryan Howard can manage to hit lefties, Jayson Werth continues to pummel lefties and does so from the cleanup spot, and Manny Ramirez stays human, then the Phillies are going to be in great shape.

Phighting Words: a Q&A With The Good Phight

Eric Stephen — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 12:03:12 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Finally, after a long layoff, today brings us baseball.

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As we head into the NLCS, I had a chance to ask a few questions of Peter Baker (aka Whole Camels) of The Good Phight, the SB Nation Phillies blog. Here are his responses:

1) Give me your thoughts on Brad Lidge. Have his struggles been overblown this season? Are you confident with him as closer, or should the job go to someone else?

No, no, and sort of. Lidge's struggles have absolutely not been overblown; if anything they've been underblown (invented word!). His 7.21 ERA could actually have been higher if not for the fact that several of his worst outings were interrupted by the opponents' celebrations at home plate after he served up a walk-off of some kind.

He's been atrocious and there's no way to mitigate it. I'll always love him for 2008 and remain optimistic that he can recapture some of his previous magic... in 2010.

I don't think the Phillies can afford to anoint a "closer" given the struggles of all of the back-of-the-bullpen guys (including nominal New Closer Ryan Madson). They need to play matchups, and with Scott Eyre's appearance in the ninth inning of Game Four versus Colorado, we might be getting a sense that Charlie Manuel intends to do just that.

2) From afar, Cole Hamels looks like the same pitcher as last season based on his peripherals, yet his ERA is over a run worse (4.32 vs. 3.09). Have you noticed any differences between the 2008 and 2009 versions of Hamels that would help explain his rise in ERA?

It's mostly been rotten luck, like you implied. He's still missing bats, he's not walking anyone, but his BABIP is appreciably worse than in 2008, when it was abnormally low. Part of the explanation might rest on the hangover from last season, when he threw a combined 262.1 innings between the regular and postseason, nearly 80 innings more than his previous season high. He's still capable of dominance, but now we're taking it on a game-by-game basis, rather than expecting brilliant outings every night.

Also, in case people forget: Hamels is just 25 years old! He's still a young pitcher, still learning on the job.

3) Since it appears Joe Mauer will win his first MVP award this season, does Chase Utley assume the mantle of "best player without an MVP" or "player better than MVP-winning teammates, yet without an MVP"?

I guess you could say Derek Jeter, if you wanted to acknowledge him in an Al Pacino "Scent of a Woman" way. But yeah, you're generally right on. Chase Utley inhabits that weird limbo where he's widely acknowledged and appreciated for his greatness, but he never had and may never have that one eye-popping season that makes the awards voters take notice. If he ever pops 40 homers, or hits .340, we might have something, but as it is I think we're just going to have to enjoy they guy as he somewhat quietly continues his Hall of Fame level career. That said, he's the best player on the Phillies, has been for several years, and it's not really even close. Season to season, he's pretty consistently the 3rd to 6th best player in the National League.

4) What Phillies player or players are the key(s) to winning this series?

The aforementioned Cole Hamels. If he can dominate, and help the Phillies steal Game One in Los Angeles, and pitch well in a likely Game Five start, he could singularly chart the Phillies' course to the World Series. Cliff Lee covered the NLDS; it's on Hamels to take charge of the NLCS.

On the offensive side of the ball, former Dodger Jayson Werth. Werth demolishes lefty pitching (1.080 OPS), which the Dodgers will be piling on primarily in an attempt to neutralize Ryan Howard. If Werth can rake against the likes of Randy Wolf and Clayton Kershaw, it'll soften or eliminate the impact of Ryan Howard's relative incompetence against them.

5) What Dodger player or players do you fear the most?

Pitching-wise, Clayton Kershaw. When he's on, he's as good as anyone in baseball. Best strategy against him is to make him work and try to get into an admittedly strong bullpen, where at least you stand a chance.

On offense, Andre Ethier. I'm still pretty traumatized from that series in L.A. earlier this season.

6) Who could eat the most Subway sandwiches in a 10-minute span: Ryan Howard or Jonathan Broxton?

I was and remain appalled that a guy who plies his trade in Philadelphia does ads for Subway. It's the City of Subs (or "Hoagies" to use the local term). Jocking for a terrible national chain joint is disappointing.

That said, Howard has dropped about 25 pounds since last season and has become an unstoppable force on the basepaths (eight steals!). Broxton, on the other hand, just looks like he's gotten fatter. I guess I'll take Howard based on his familiarity with the product, and the knowledge that if he lost the contest, Jared would murder his family. It's a great motivator.

7) Dodger fans seem to get singled out from national announcers for arriving late and leaving early, despite evidence of fans of other teams doing the same. Are there any national perceptions of Philadelphia sports fans that you take issue with?

Where to begin? The booing Santa Claus thing needs to die, yesterday. "Santa" was a drunk college student in a rotten costume, and it dates to the Frankin Field days of the 1960s. It was a poor effort from an awful Eagles franchise and deserved booing. I have no defense for throwing batteries at J.D. Drew. It happened, but again arose from Phillies management's miserable handling of the negotiations with Scott Boras back in 1997.

None of this is to say that Philadelphia fans haven't engaged in some awful, savage behavior -- oh yes, they have (read about their racially-motivated mistreatment of Dick Allen in the 1960s) -- but most of it is in the distant past. The general perception that Philadelphia fans are the worst and only fans to engage in such behavior is what gets to me.

In sum, it's unfair to paint all Dodgers fans with the "arrive late, leave early!" stereotype, just like it's not right to assume that all Phillies fans are baby-eating savages.

8) John Kruk: lovable and revered ex-Phillie, or national buffoon?

Both! He was very good but odd player, a smart hitter, but I always wonder how great he could have been if he had taken care of himself. He spent a season or two in the broadcast booth as the Phillies' color guy and did a pretty good job; he's funny, relaxed, and confident. The problem arises when you try to extract meaningful, astute analysis. He bats about .200 in that regard.

9) What is your prediction for this series?

Phillies win in 6 (you expected something else?). The Dodgers are better than last year, no doubt, but I'm confident in the Phillies' lineup's ability to put runs on the board, and the starting pitching between Hamels, Lee, and your choice of Joe Blanton and Pedro Martinez gets a slight edge over the Dodgers.

Thanks, Peter! Here's to a good series.

Redeem Team: Phillies 6, Rockies 5

dajafi — Mon, 12 Oct 2009 06:50:55 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Chase Utley started and Brad Lidge finished as the Phillies took a marathon Game Three in frigid conditions, defeating Colorado 6-5. (AP Photo/ David Zalubowski)

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If you looked past the absurdly late start time and the absolutely friggin' insane cold temperature--below 30 degrees by the last innings--the pattern for how the Phillies would win their biggest game of the year actually began to lay out with the third batter of the evening. Minutes into what would be an epic of four-plus hours, Chase Utley stepped to the plate with two outs. Utley, a middling 2 for 8 through the first two games of the Division Series after a miserable .204/.304/.343 performance in September, crushed a pitch from Rockies starter Jason Hammel over the right-center field wall to give his team a quick 1-0 lead. Utley made his presence felt with the bat all night, figuring in two big rallies later on and finishing with three hits and a walk.

Happ had no need for redemption after his outstanding regular season, but his first career playoff start isn't likely one he'll remember fondly. The rookie lefty needed more than 30 pitches to get through the first inning as the Rockies scored twice to take a 2-1 lead, and he ultimately lasted just three innings, allowing three runs on five hits and two walks. But his teammates took him off the hook with three runs in the top of the fourth. Shane Victorino led off with a walk, advanced to second on an Utley single and scored on Ryan Howard's single to right-center. After Hammel walked Jayson Werth, he got ahead of Raul Ibanez. But the veteran left fielder--another player look to silence doubters after a mostly pedestrian second half--came back in the at-bat to draw the first and biggest of his three walks for the game, tying the score at 3. After Pedro Feliz grounded into a 1-2-3 double play, Carlos Ruiz put the Phils back ahead with an RBI single that scored Howard.

The Rockies quickly tied it again on a long solo home run from Carlos Gonzalez, the emerging star who notched three more hits plus a walk tonight. But Joe Blanton held Colorado at bay for the rest of his 2 2/3 innings, before giving way to Scott Eyre with two outs in the sixth. By then, the Phils had retaken the lead, on another single from Ruiz that scored Ibanez. With a man on first, Eyre came on to face pinch-hitter extraordinaire Seth Smith, and induced a popup to end the inning.

Eyre did not fare as well an inning later, as Gonzalez led off with a double. Dexter Fowler tried to bunt him over, but Eyre's ankle collapsed and both runners were safe on the corners. Ryan Madson came in to strike out Todd Helton, but the Rockies tied it on a Troy Tulowitzki sac fly that looked much more troublesome off the bat. Madson finished the inning by freezing Yorvit Torrealba--who responded to manager Jim Tracy elevating him to fifth in the batting order by going 0 for 4 with three strikeouts--on outside heat.

The Phillies then let a great chance go by the boards in the top of the eighth, when an Ibanez walk and a bloop Feliz double put men on second and third with one out. Rafael Betancourt held on to strike out Ruiz and pinch-hitter Matt Stairs, and the Rockies seemed to have the momentum going into the home eighth. But Chad Durbin, a reliever I've certainly felt no faith in, and whose appearance on the playoff roster itself was a surprise after a poor regular season, set Colorado down in order, keeping things even. Another fallen star, Jimmy Rollins, stepped up to lead off the ninth, working a full count against Huston Street before singling up the middle. Rollins moved up to second on Victorino's sac bunt and got to third on an Utley infield single that he appeared to foul off his own body, then barely beat (or not) Torrealba's throw to first. Howard's deep sac fly plated Rollins, and the Phillies had their fourth one-run lead of the night.

With Madson used--exactly when he should have been, by the way, with the game on the line in the seventh--Charlie Manuel called on the closer whose reversal of fortune has been the biggest stain on a mostly successful Phillies season, Colorado native Brad Lidge. It was quickly clear that this Lidge had something over the helpless hurler seen a month ago getting smacked around by the likes of the Nationals and Marlins, as he induced an easy groundout from Brad Hawpe to start the inning. But Gonzalez had another superb at-bat, getting ahead 3-0, taking a strike, then fouling off pitch after pitch before taking a close fastball outside for the walk. He stole second with pinch-hitter Jason Giambi up, but had to stay there when the aging slugger fouled out to third. Lidge seemed to pitch around Todd Helton, and put the potential winning run on with another walk. But Tulowitzki, whose sac fly had plated Gonzalez two innings earlier, could only manage a shallow fly ball to left. Ben Francisco settled under it, squeezed, and pumped his fist, and Lidge turned to accept the handshakes and high fives of his teammates--who stood in for who knows how many thousands of exhausted but exhilarated Phillies fans everywhere.

Cliff Lee takes the mound tomorrow at 6 ET, looking to close out the series. As in Game One, he'll face Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez.

NLDS preview Q&A with The Good Phight

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 02:59:17 -0000

More photos » by Matt Rourke - AP

Look, quit asking me about Dave Roberts, would you?

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Oh Man. We're less than 16 hours away from the NLDS. Oh Man.

And because we haven't inundated the front page with enough articles yet, I have yet another one for you.

I exchanged questions with Peter Baker (WholeCamels) of The Good Phight, SBNation's Phillies blog.

Let's listen!

1. Who has been the biggest surprise for you on a team that's been relatively stable in terms of personnel for the past few years?

Probably Jimmy Rollins. Even though he had a much better second half (.642 OPS pre-ASB; .801 OPS post-ASB), he was shockingly, eye-wateringly awful for the first three months of the season. We're fortunate that the lineup is so deep and powerful, and that Raul Ibanez spent the first two months of the year hitting like Albert Pujols, otherwise the team would have really struggled to score runs with Rollins struggling.

2. Madson or Lidge?

Madson. Look, he's not a dead-solid lock the way Brad Lidge was last year, but with Ryan Madson, you can reasonably hope for a clean inning. With Lidge, all season, it's been nearly hopeless. He isn't perfect, but Madson is the best we've got.

3. What name, event, or concept do you anticipate being the most sick of hearing about come the end of this series?

"In this park, NO lead is safe!" -- apply liberally to Coors Field and Citizens Bank Park. I'm sick of opposing announcers giving the impression that CBP is somehow not legitimate. Well, guess what, two straight NL champs, two hitters' parks. Shove that up your Turner Field. Particularly frustrating because both the Phillies and the Rockies are solid pitching clubs.

4. Which Phillies player needs to step up for them to defeat the Rockies?

Cliff Lee. Something in between the Unhittable Pitching Robot of his first five Phillies starts, and the Hittable Pitching Machine of most of his recent outings, ought to get the job done. Lee is on track to start two games in the Series. If the Phillies can win those starts, they probably win the Series.

5. Which Rockies player worries you the most in a short series?

Todd Helton, a Phillie-destroying beast. 1.143 career OPS vs. Philadelphia in 335 plate appearances, so we have an appreciable sample. The only saving grace here for the Phillies is a pronounced platoon split (.986/.741) in 2009, but all it takes is one grooved fastball from some righty jerk in the bullpen to make it all for naught.

6. Series outcome prediction.

Phillies in 4. Phillies claim the first two in Philadelphia, then win Game Four behind lefty J.A. Happ.

Wow! What an interview! Thanks for your time, Peter, and here's to absolutely embarrassing your purchased ace Cliff Lee, and here's to hoping that he singlehandedly extinguishes the whole "WELL HE'S GOING TO THE NATIONAL LEAGUE THAT MEANS HE'LL BE BETTER" myth!

Because really, isn't that the more important thing? The furthering of NL awesomeness?