SB Nation - Geoff Geary

Cecil Cooper from take off to landing

DyingQuail — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:00:27 -0000

by Gene J. Puskar - AP

6 months ago: Houston Astros manager Cecil Cooper walks in the dugout during a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh Saturday, May 30, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

View full size photo »

A one-hour plane ride and two torn out pages of the Bill James Handbook, that’s all I have. Perhaps it’s because I’m a grizzled veteran now, but probably because I know that I work best under a deadline (see: 3 AM the ~~night~~ morning before any important paper due in college); whatever the reason for this hare-brained idea, that’s what I’m working with to produce this post.

If you didn’t believe me when I said that I was going to be using the interesting things I’ve stumbled upon in the Bill James Handbook as fodder for 30 or so posts—believe.

Today’s topic: Cecil Cooper’s managerial statistics. The juicy details: after the jump.

James has a couple of pretty useful measures for us to talk about what we got with Coop in 2008 and 2009. Looking over the historical stats for various managers in the book, I noted how it seemed like a lot of these stats were driven by the kinds of teams that the managers could pull the levers with. But here’s the thing, Coop doesn’t really seem to fit that mold at all.

(Since I’m writing this in a bind, I don’t know that I’ll do the greatest job of holding onto my objectivity, but c’est la vie. I’ve now sat through an hour and half of delays and there will always be a part of me that will hold Coop in ire for 2009 being a second half nose-dive. My stasis is not the best for pure, rational objectivity.)

2008: The year that Coop drove us nuts with the running game

The Astros attempted 154 stolen bases, 81 sacrifices, and started the runners moving 112 times. Having loosely observed the various levels of these stats for other managers, this is a pretty high year for wasting outs. The stolen base has a negative run expectancy. A sacrifice obviously uses an out (and let’s be honest, Coop wasn’t using sacrifices in high leverage situations only), and I’ve never read anything on the statistical impact of sending the runners, but I imagine it’s probably not a wonderful statistical move.

Thinking about this team without the aid of FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, or any of my statistical sanctuaries, this wasn’t a shrewd move on Coop’s part. Subjectively, let’s think about the bone headed stolen base attempts we saw that year: Ty Wigginton and Carlos Lee on several occasions. There was, of course, the well-publicized "green light" policy and the neglect of telling Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn that simply being fast doesn’t mean you’ll steal with a lot of success.

These numbers don’t capture their effect. They’re just a count of attempts, but just thinking about the number of attempts with the cogs that were cranking the wheels, it’s not hard to say that this wasn’t the finest piece of utility maximization in the history of managing.

2009: The year that Coop, seemingly, destroyed the bull pen

There are only two numbers I need to give you (four really, but get off my back): 116 and 449 (108 and 488). The first number is the number of times that a reliever was used in consecutive days and the second is the total number of relievers used. The non-parenthetical numbers are 2009’s totals and the parenthetical are 2008.

In twelve less games than he had to work with 2008, Coop increased the number of consecutive days, while using nearly forty less relievers. While this probably isn’t the most damning usage of relief pitchers ever, let’s consider who Coop was working with:

Chris Sampson: Coming off an off-season elbow surgery.
Geoff Geary: Coming off an off-season hip surgery.
Doug Brocail: Coming off a season where he’d just been abused in the 8^th inning all year long. And yes, he was over the age of forty in both instances and had a faulty ticker.
Jose Valverde: Coming off his shredded calf muscle in April.
Relief pitcher X: The guy I should have mentioned but have forgotten as I realize I’m running out of time.

Just like with the running game in 2008, this isn’t to say that Coop definitively killed the Astros bullpen because determining that would take a lot more evidence than I have. Both of these brief blurbs are to point out that Coop had bad tendencies as a manager. The usage pattern in 2009 for our relievers was bone-headed. There’s no other way for me to describe it. During all of our discussions of what helped the Astros out pace their Pythag record in 2008, we all came back to our successful late-inning relievers. The second of 2009: we were trying to plug the links as they sprang up; ultimately, our ship sank.

So what’s the overall point of this (besides the challenge of writing all this between takeoff and landing)? To say that these are the small changes in managerial tactics that I think can hopefully give the Astros a better starting point in 2010. Brad Mills, please take note.

Pirates Can't Learn Much From Phillies

Charlie — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 22:05:52 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

Philadelphia Phillies' Cole Hamels throws against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday, July 28, 2009, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Browse more photos »

John Mehno has the right idea in this Beaver County Times column about the differences between the Pirates and Phillies--it's not primarily about spending, it's about building by acquiring amateur talent. But while the technique of comparing some great Phillies draft picks (Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and so on) to picks the Pirates botched at similar points in their drafts is effective for an article written with a word count for a general audience, it doesn't quite tell the whole story.

The Phillies' case is really weird. If you look at their drafts under previous GM Ed Wade (that's basically the time frame described in the Beaver County article), it's very surprising they've been so successful. Working backwards, the best player they got in 2005 was current Athletics reliever Josh Outman; they also got current Reds reliever Matt Maloney. That was it. In 2004 they got J.A. Happ in the third round, Jason Jaramillo in the second, and Lou Marson in the fourth, but they also took Greg Golson as a dubious tools pick in the first round and got nothing in the later rounds. In 2003 they had no first- or second-round pick; they got Michael Bourn and Kyle Kendrick, and that was it.

In 2002 the Phils took Cole Hamels in the first round, which was obviously a great pick, but they got absolutely nothing else. In 2001, it was Gavin Floyd in the first round and Howard in the fifth, and absolutely nothing else. In 2000, they got Utley, Taylor Buchholz and nothing else. In 1999, it was Brett Myers, Marlon Byrd and nothing else. (They also drafted Joe Saunders, but didn't sign him.)

Now, maybe this doesn't sound too noteworthy to some of you. Maybe you think that if you get one good player out of a draft, that's great, and to a certain extent that's true. In this case, the results speak for themselves. But what's odd to me about the Phillies' drafts under Wade is how incredibly thin they were. Wade seemed to get a star player and almost nothing else every year for several seasons in a row. That's strange.

To see what I mean, let's take a look at Wade's first draft for the Phillies in 1998. He took Pat Burrell with the first overall pick (a bit of a no-brainer), but he also got several moderately useful players later on, such as Jason Michaels, Geoff Geary and Nick Punto.

In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter that much if you fail to identify the next Nick Punto in your draft, but it does raise the question of why, if the Phillies are supposed to be a good example of intelligent drafting, they were able to identify so many star players but so few other future productive major leaguers.

Here's an example. In 2000 the Phillies got Utley, who single-handedly made the draft a very successful one for Philadelphia. The same year, the Pirates got Chris Young, Nate McLouth, Ian Snell, Jose Bautista and Sean Burnett. I'd say the Pirates actually did a much better job in that draft, even though it turned out worse--Dave Littlefield stupidly traded away Young a couple years later, and first-rounder Burnett's career was derailed with a ton of injuries. Drafting players who will stay healthy and helping them stay healthy involve skills, of course, and it certainly helps to not take a pitcher in the first round every year like the Pirates did. But there's luck involved too. For example, the Phillies were notably lucky that, for example, high school draftee Hamels basically made it to the majors with his elbow and shoulder intact, particularly after he missed huge chunks of his minor league career with injuries.

In 2001 the Phillies got Floyd, later sent to the White Sox in the Jim Thome trade, and Howard. That was all. Again, the Pirates had a much more robust draft, grabbing a number of moderately useful players in Zach Duke, Chris Shelton, Jeff Keppinger, Chris Duffy, Jonathan Albaladejo and Rajai Davis. (They also might have had some shot of signing 11th-rounder Stephen Drew if Littlefield, who was hired shortly after the draft, hadn't dropped the ball.) The Pirates royally messed up their first-round pick, John Van Benschoten, and that was their fault, but again, I'm not really convinced that Wade and the Phillies had a better idea of what they were doing.

Of course, Littlefield and his team started drafting in 2002, and after that all bets are off. There's no defending much of anything Littlefield did. My point, though, is that I'm not sure the Wade-era Phillies are a particularly good model here. In fact, it looks to me that they repeatedly got very lucky with about one pick each year and totally bombed the rest of their drafts under Wade, with the exceptions of 1998 and 2004. I don't mean to take anything away from the Phillies, who have generally been pretty well run since Wade left. But If there are things the Pirates can learn from this, they are the very basic points that, first, it's generally very important not to screw up first-round picks, and second, that it's important to build a core of homegrown stars. Beyond that, the Phillies' example doesn't tell us a whole lot.

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Relievers

davoag — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Reliever Sammy Gervacio

Browse more photos »

Your Tuesday morning special is a look at the 2009 Astros bullpen. First, though, I thought we could consider a question:

Can a minor league reliever be considered a prospect?

Almost all the Astros homegrown bullpen additions this decade have been starters in the minors before making the major leauge club. Guys like Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge and Chris Sampson made a successful transition into relievers, but started almost all of their games on the farm. Lately, though, the Astros have been moving prospects into the bullpen earlier in their minor league career and still giving them a shot to make the club.

As a comparison, only three players in the past 13 years have made their major league debut for the Astros after not starting more than 10 games in the minors. They were:

Wayne Franklin, came over from Dodgers, but was a minor league reliever before being called up in 2000. Franklin started just seven games in the minors before coming up during the first year at Enron, which was a wasteland of relievers. Remember the best pitcher in the 2000 bullpen, Joe Slusarsky? Yeah, it was bad. Franklin was sent back to the minors in 2001 and put into the starting rotation, much like the Astros are talking about doing with Wesley Wright (more on that later).
Brandon Puffer, went through three organizations before being called up in 2002, but only started six games in minors. Puffer doesn't show this as much, because he bounced around so much early in his career. Plus, his funky sidearm delivery was probably not though of as something that would hold up in a starter's role, forcing him into the 'pen.
Alvin Morman was called up in 1996, but only started 19 games in the minors. Even then, he was only used as a starter for part of one season (1994), when he started all 19 games at Double-A Jackson. Morman was a relatively high pick (6th round, 1991), but stayed in the pen for most of his career, as some leftys do.

That all changed this season when Sammy Gervacio made his big league debut. The 24-year old never started a game in the minors before appearing in 29 games this season over two stints in Houston. Another reliever, Chia-Jen Lo, is doing well in the Arizona Fall League after signing out of Taiwan last season. Lo also has been used mainly as a reliever along with a couple other mid-level prospects, like Danny Meszaros. Still, there is not a good history of guys with this profile succeeding. It will be interesting to track whether this is a trend that is changing or if these prospects will flame out once they get to the show. With that, let's get on with a look at the bullpen...

Tim Byrdak, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-2, 61 1/3 IP, 3.23 ERA, 76 games, 58 strikeouts, 36 walks, 10 HR, 1.22 WHIP, 129 ERA+

FIP: 5.29

Leverage: 24 High, 13 Medium, 36 Low

BABiP: .188

GB/FB: 0.71

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: For a lefty specialist, Byrdak sure developed into a solid pitcher for the Astros. It really surprised me that he pitched in so many high leverage situations. His peripheral stats are worrying, as he was EXTREMELY lucky to give up so few hits and without a good defense, Byrdak would not have done nearly this well. The two things that jump out (other than his FIP and BABiP) were his homer rate (1.5 HR/9) and his walk rate (5.3 BB/9). Both were right in line with his career numbers, but are not great, especially the walk rate. At the same time, Byrdak has put up three straight seasons with ERAs of 3.00, so he's doing something right. Hopefully, he'll still be effective in 2010.

Chris Sampson, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 4-2, 3 saves, 55 1/3 IP, 5.04 ERA, 49 games, 33 strikeouts, 21 walks, 2 HR, 1.57 WHIP, 82 ERA+

FIP: 3.24

Leverage: 25 high, 10 medium, 14 low

BABiP: .335

GB/FB:1.17

Pitching Runs Created: 15

Notes: Talk about a hard luck season. Sampson suffered muscle spasms in his shoulder and was put on the DL in July. He came back but was ineffective and was finally optioned to Round Rock on August 13. Sampson pitched in some very tough situations and was somewhat unlucky before the injury, but his shoulder may still not be right. His FIP was much lower than his ERA, but his strikeout rate plummeted. Basically, Sampson was very hittable and that needs to change if he's going to be successful in 2010.

LaTroy Hawkins, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-4, 11 saves, 63 1/3 IP, 65 games, 2.13 ERA, 45 strikeouts, 16 walks, 7 HR, 1.20 WHIP, 195 ERA+

FIP: 3.92

Leverage: 35 high, 10 medium, 17 low

BABiP: .283

GB/FB: 0.86

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Hawkins put up great numbers, especially considering he pitched in more high leverage situations this season than any other Astros reliever. He'll be 37 next season in his 16th big league season. Fun fact: Hawkins actually started 129 games in the minors and was used as a starter by Minnesota for three seasons in the majors before beginning his very lucrative career in the bullpen. Hawkins was probably a little lucky this past season and his strikeout rate isn't anything to write home about. Still, with the rest of the bullpen being as solid as it is, I could see Hawkins closing next season and filling in the rest of the 'pen with Arias, Fulchino and Gervacio.

Jeff Fulchino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-4, 82 IP, 61 games, 3.40 ERA, 71 strikeouts, 27 walks, 7 HR, 1.18 WHIP, 122 ERA+

FIP: 3.52

Leverage: 18 high, 14 medium, 28 low

BABiP: .281

GB/FB: 0.93

Pitching Runs Created: 37

Notes: Thank you Kansas City Royals. The Astros plucked Fulchino off waivers last December and were rewarded with a great season out of the bullpen. In face, Fulchino's season almost makes up for how bad the other Royal imports (Jason Smith, Tyler Lumsden) were. While his strikeout rate doesn't strike fear in the hearts of other teams, Fulchino did avoid giving up home runs for the most part. He also wasn't used in a ton of high leverage situations, so his stats were perfect for middle relief.

Jose Valverde, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 4-2, 25 saves, 54 IP, 52 games, 2.33 ERA, 56 strikeouts, 21 walks, 5 HR, 1.13 WHIP, 178 ERA+

FIP: 3.50

Leverage: 26 high, 13 medium, 10 low

BABiP: .261

GB/FB: 0.66

Pitching Runs Created: 34

Notes: Valverde was exactly what the Astros needed. He brought a swagger to the mound that this team lacked. Injuries robbed him of time this season and the fact that the Astros weren't very good down the stretch held his save total down. You can't ask for much more out of a closer, though, as he managed to strike out one an inning and his home run rate was the lowest since 2005. He has enough concerning factors to his season that I worry about giving him a long term deal. For one, his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career and his BABiP meant his season was more lucky than you'd like. With a couple more hits landing, his numbers could easily have skewed upwards more. Since he's already suffered through an injury-riddled season, what will happen if the Astros give him a 4-to-5 year deal and he's hurt for half of it?

Alberto Arias, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 2-1, 45 2/3 innings, 3.35 ERA, 42 games, 39 strikeouts, 19 walks, 1 HR, 1.49 WHIP, 124 ERA+

FIP: 3.11

Leverage: 12 high, 8 medium, 22 low

BABiP: .340

GB/FB: 1.68

Pitching Runs Created: 18

Notes: When discussing Ed Wade's best moves, Arias has to be among them. While not a home run-type move, Arias was gotten for nothing and has turned into a very effective reliever. Arias had a higher-than-normal BABiP, meaning he was a little unlucky in posting a higher-than-league average ERA. The only thing that's a little concerning about Arias going forward is his strikeout rate is a bit low. Without missing a few more bats, Arias is going to have a hard time giving up just one home run again next season.

Wesley Wright, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-4, 44 2/3 IP, 5.44 ERA, 49 games, 47 strikeouts, 25 walks, 9 HR, 1.75 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 5.14

Leverage: 7 high, 18 medium, 24 low

BABiP: .358

GB/FB: 0.82

Pitching Runs Created: 14

Notes: The word is the Astros would like to make Wright into a starter. With his age (25) and relative lack of innings to this point, it may take an entire season at Triple-A for Wright to make the transition. Having more left-handed starters, though, can't be a bad thing. Wright has been effective and used in semi-big situations. While Cooper didn't have as much confidence in him as Byrdak (judging by leverage situations), Wright did an adequate job and still strikes out a ton of batters. Even if he loses 2 strikeouts per nine innings off his rate by moving into the starting rotation, he'll still be very effective.

Sammy Gervacio, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-1, 21 IP, 2.14 ERA, 29 games, 25 strikeouts, 8 walks, 1 HR, 1.14 WHIP, 194 ERA+

FIP: 2.25

Leverage: 7 high, 7 medium, 15 low

BABiP: .319

GB/FB: 1.24

Pitching Runs Created: 15

Notes: As I mentioned above, Gervacio was one of the few Astros prospects to make the big league without starting a game in the minors. Gervacio was the only Astro with a double-digit K/9 rate, and had a smaller walk rate than in the minors. Still, Gervacio didn't pitch many innings, but showed enough to be a big contributor next season. He was used in a few high leverage situations and didn't embarrass himself. In fact, his usage pattern was somewhat surprising for a rookie. His FIP and BABiP all showed that his performance was not a fluke, though with his innings, the sample size wasn't big enough to draw huge conclusions. I would be happy to use him in the 'pen in 2010, though, instead of a more expensive option (see: Valverde, Jose).

Geoff Geary, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 20 IP, 8.10 ERA, 16 games, 12 strikeouts, 10 walks, 4 HR, 2.00 WHIP, 51 ERA+

FIP: 6.05

Leverage: 6 high, 4 medium, 6 low

BABiP:.382

GB/FB: 0.54

Pitching Runs Created: 3

Notes: Geary is a good example of why teams shouldn't spend a ton of money on non-closers. Relievers are so fungible, it's hard to justify spending the money for a multi-year contract when their performance can vary so greatly. Take Geary; in 2008, he was a good addition to the 'pen and one of the better throw-ins to the Brad Lidge trade. In 2009? Geary finished the season in the minors and was granted free agency. The righty never could get locked in this season, even though he was used about the same in leveraged situations. His BABiP was high, which means he was probably unlucky. I could see Geary having a productive year for someone in 2010, though it probably won't be the Astros.

Doug Brocail, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-0, 17 2/3 IP, 4.58 ERA, 20 games, 9 strikeouts, 13 walks, 4 HR, 1.95 WHIP, 91 ERA+

FIP: 7.28

Leverage: 4 high, 2 medium, 12 low

BABiP: .298

GB/FB: 0.94

Pitching Runs Created: 6

Notes: It's safe to say the Doug Brocail experiment didn't work out as the Astros had planned. It's not that Brocail did poorly. In fact, you could argue that he was Houston's most effective reliever in 2008. However, his age may have caught up to him this season, as Brocail only played 20 games before suffering an arm injury (?). What's interesting is looking at what leveraged situations Brocail was used in this season. For someone who was so good a season before, Cooper obviously didn't want to use him in pressure situations in 2009, as he was used in twice as many low pressure situations as anything else.

Chad Paronto, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 6 2/3 IP, 12.15 ERA, 6 games, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk, 4 HR, 2.40 WHIP, 34 ERA+

FIP: 10.50

Leverage: 0 high, 0 medium, 6 low

BABiP: .407

GB/FB: 0.50

Pitching Runs Created: 1

Notes: Paronto has been great for Round Rock the past two seasons, but battled injuries in 2009. He was called up in September and gave up a ton of home runs, but was a tad unlucky. Paronto is exactly the kind of arm the Astros have collected at Triple-A the past few years. He's serviceable but probably only needed in spot duty in the majors, if there is an injury.

Billy Sadler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 1 1/3 IP, 13.50 ERA, 1 game, 2 strikeouts, 1 walk, 0 HR, 2.25 WHIP, 31 ERA+

FIP: 2.40

Leverage: 0 high, 0 medium, 1 low

BABiP: .500

GB/FB: 1.00

Pitching Runs Created: 0

Notes: The only Astros pitcher to not get at least one Pitching Run Created, the story was that Wade promised Sadler he'd be added to the big league team before the end of the season. That's why he got the call-up at the end of September, though Sadler didn't pitch much at all. Fun moments in small sample size: Sadler's FIP was 11 runs lower than his ERA, but only because he struck out two in his 1 1/3 innings. Of course, now Sadler's a free agent and probably won't come back. But we'll always have that 1 1/3 innings.

A Guide To Some Relevant Minor League Free Agents

Sam Page — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 15:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Browse more photos »

In 2009, the Mets were bereft of minor league depth. It was painfully obvious looking at Buffalo's performance and it became a major issue when injuries struck. Despite what some claim, however, developing prospects is not the only way to build good farm systems. Often those fringe players that never quite breakthrough to the show are the most integral parts of a successful minor league team. So going off this list, here's some MiFA of interest:

RHP Phil Humber: I actually think Humber is a pretty bad pitcher, but need to mention him before everyone gets nostalgic. Humber was, of course, the former Mets top prospect out of Rice that was supposed to join Mike Pelfrey at the top of the Mets rotation eventually--that was, before he had Tommy John Surgery. Somehow included in the Johan Santana deal, Humber pitched really poorly for the Twins in AAA. The only real reason to bring him back would be a show of goodwill and sympathy from the Mets. Don't hold out hope for that lost potential.

IF/OF Wilson Betemit: The top-prospect-turned-super-sub Betemit probably has his best days behind him, even at age 28. He comes from the Mark DeRosa mold in that he has experience at virtually every position, but is good at none of them. And while he hasn't hit very well of late, his interesting blend of power and plate discipline and major-league track record could make him worth a flier at AAA. Personally, I might opt for better infield defense behind the Mets young developing pitchers, but few others on that list can claim being an average major league hitter over their career.

RHP Bryan Bullington: One of many infamous first round busts in the Pirate's recent draft history, this first-overall pick has some upside as a reliever. In 38 relief innings for Las Vegas last season, Bullington had a 43:7 K:BB ratio in 38.1 innings pitched. He also can be as a serviceable AAA starter, but any chance of him making the bigs is as a part of the bullpen. A good guy to have around.

LHP Brian Burres: A long-time Baltimore farm hand, Burres has the stuff to be a mid-rotation AAA guy and a #7 or 8 on an organizational depth chart. Sub-par control and a horrible 2008 with the Orioles will likely prevent him from ever earning another extended stay in the majors.

RHP R.A. Dickey:

Pros:

Went to my high school
throws the knuckleball
the only article I ever wrote for my high school newspaper was about him

Cons:

not as good as Tim Wakefield

Dickey is the rare pitcher who is seemingly improving with age. He started using the knuckleball full-time in 2007, a season in which he was the Pacific Coast League MVP. Last year he had modest success as a reliever with the Twins. Knuckleball pitchers are great because they can pitch a million innings without getting tired and because they throw the knuckleball.

3B/OF Joe Dillon: At age 33, Joe's showing some signs of decline, but with the way he's been jerked around between the majors and minors recently, I wonder whether it's genuine slowing down or just not getting settled in one place. He is one of those AAAA sluggers that makes minor league baseball fun to watch--three times in his minor league career he's had a 1000+ OPS. He's a pretty decent fielding thirdbaseman to boot. This year he was the "last man" on the Rays bench, and he could easily reprise that role with the Mets, or be big boost to the Bisons.

RHP Geoff Geary: Geary is a control-specialist reliever who has had some major league PT recently with the Astros and Phillies. He's not someone I want in the Mets bullpen, but Buffalo could use him.

OF Mitch Jones: .354, .320. Those two numbers are Mitch Jones' Isolated Power in the past two seasons. Sure, he played in a friendly home ballpark in Albuquerque, but a .651 SLG% travels. You could make an argument that Jones is better suited for a starting job on the Mets than Daniel Murphy or Jeff Francoeur.

LHP Royce Ring: Ya'll know Royce. Lefty with the funky motion. I'd take him back on a minor league deal, considering the state of the Mets' bullpen.

LHP Jon Switzer: He pitched pretty well for Buffalo out of the bullpen this year (3.85 tRA). He would be a solid re-sign.

1B Chris Shelton: Like a right-handed Chris Carter, Chris Shelton is another AAAA slugger the Bison's stagnant offense could certainly use. Last year with Tacoma, he OPSed .905 at age 29. With Chris Carter already here, however, he may be "blocked." And as you've probably suspected, I'd gladly platoon him with Murphy, Carter, or Ike Davis, if given the chance.

LHP R.J. Swindle: Of all the pitchers I've talked about so far, Swindle is easily the most desirable. He'll be just 26 next season and has fantastic minor league peripherals 9.0 K/9, 1.8 BB/9. He's got forgettable stuff: a low 80s fastball and curveball that is basically an eephus, but he's always put up great numbers and killed lefties. Chad Bradford II?

RHP Joe Nelson: The Rays signed Joe for $1MM after a fantastic '08 with the Marlins. He proved a bad investment with horrible command, but might be served well by a return to the NL East. The Mets were reportedly interested in him as a Major League piece last year, and at the very least would be a great AAA option.

C Guillermo Quiroz: A former top-50 prospect, Quiroz has evolved into a minor league catcher with a sterling defensive reputation, good pop, and poor on-base skills. Basically, he's Omir Santos. I am not even sure Omir Santos is even better than him. In fact, Omir Santos was the Orioles' AAA catcher when Quiroz was their Major League backup. That says more about how poor and ill-equipped for a starting gig Santos is, than how good Quiroz is. But if you're going to entrust Omir Santos with a roster spot, might as well keep his clone as a backup in AAA.

Roster Breakdown: The Money

davoag — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:12:42 -0000

I mentioned there would be a more in-depth look a the Astros 2009 roster today and this is the first part of that attempt. My plan is to look at three different phases of the roster, starting with the monetary worth of all the players, followed by how the position players performed and then how the pitchers did. Hopefully, by knowing what the Astros were last year, it will help predict what they need to do in 2010 to be successful. Onward and upward after the jump...

Helped by the wonderful people over at FanGraphs, I charted the Astros entire roster on both their value in dollar amounts and their actual salaries, which I got from Cot's Baseball Contracts. I added all of them up to get the team's total value for the season and how much money they actually spent. I should also note before we dive into analysis that I adjusted the pitcher's values for their batting, which I'll talk about more in a minute.

The Astros players performed at a value worth 95.2 million this season, while the payroll came in around 106.2 million. This means the team underperformed the payroll by about 11 million dollars. I was a little surprised at this, as I mentioned yesterday in the Dave Clark story, the Astros outperformed their pythag record by six wins. I thought this might translate into value for the club. It did, but not to the extent I expected.

In fact, if we discounted the pitchers' batting, the team would have outperformed payroll by about 7 million, but some of the pitchers, like Oswalt, Wandy and especially Moehler, all were hugely affected by poor batting. Moehler went from one of the few bargains on the team to being one of the biggest detriments. Oswalt also underperformed his contract by about 3.7 million, though he was one of a handful of Astros to contribute double-figure value.

On the plus side, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence combined to produce 33.9 million of the Astros overall 95 million value. Both are playing on pre-arbitration contracts, so were the two biggest values on the team. Wandy was also a huge value, adding 11.8 million over his 2.6 million dollar contract, but lost 3.8 million because of his hitting. That seemed a bit high to me, but as I thought about it more, the only way pitchers can't hurt their team batting-wise is to pitch in the American League, and I'm not sure Wandy would have put up the same value if he had pitched in the tougher league.

Who else were values? Jeff Fulchino came in fourth, with a 3.2 million positive difference, while Mike Hampton was fifth at 2.6 million. It also didn't hurt that Hampy added 0.8 million with his bat. Chris Sampson and Alberto Arias were the next two on the list and the last two that topped 2 million in positive difference between their contracts and their worth. Anther surprise for me was Edwin Maysonet outperforming his contract by one million.

The other side of that coin is the guys who underperform, and the worst at that was Carlos Lee. At -7.9 million, he had the biggest negative difference on the team. The only two players coming close to that were Darin Erstad and Jose Valverde, who both clocked in with negative-5 differences. Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak were the next two on the bottom, followed by Geoff Geary and Roy Oswalt. The reason so many of these guys are relievers is that their salary greatly exceeded their worth. In fact, the only one who added positive value to the team was Valverde at 3 million. Quick shot analysis of this is that relievers really are fungible, so it's silly to pay more than a million dollars for all but the best closers. Otherwise, you're wasting monetary resources on a position you can fill many different ways.

As for Lee, that contract is an absolute albatross. His hitting is great and all, but his defense hurts the club out in left field and he won't always hit like he's doing now. On the current open market, you can definitely find a bargain that can hit 30 homers and bat .280 for left field without spending 10 million per year, much less the 18.5 Lee earned in 2009.

That's all the analysis I'm going to do now, because I'll get into more detailed looks at player performance later, but I've included the data I used for the entire team for you to peruse below. Look for more posts on the managerial hiring process too as we get more information.

	WAR	Salary	Difference
Bourn	18.700	0.435	18.265
Pence	15.200	0.439	14.761
W. Rodriguez	14.400	2.600	11.800
Fulchino	3.600	0.400	3.200
Hampton	4.600	2.000	2.600
Sampson	2.700	0.449	2.251
Arias	2.500	0.402	2.099
Quintero	2.300	0.610	1.690
Rodriguez	3.100	1.500	1.600
Gervacio	1.900	0.400	1.500
Blum	2.600	1.200	1.400
Keppinger	1.700	0.428	1.273
Maysonet	1.400	0.400	1.000
Norris	0.400	0.400	0.000
Sadler	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Towles	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Manzella	-0.200	0.400	-0.600
Kata	-0.300	0.400	-0.700
Berkman	13.600	14.500	-0.900
Tejada	11.800	13.000	-1.200
Paronto	-1.100	0.500	-1.600
Bazardo	-1.200	0.405	-1.605
Ortiz	-1.100	0.750	-1.850
Michaels	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Boone	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Lopez	-1.600	0.400	-2.000
Hawkins	1.500	3.500	-2.000
Johnson	-2.000	0.375	-2.375
Moehler	-0.200	2.300	-2.500
Wright	-2.100	0.425	-2.525
Matsui	2.400	5.000	-2.600
Coste	-2.500	0.460	-2.960
Backe	-1.500	1.500	-3.000
Paulino	-2.600	0.405	-3.005
Smith	-2.800	0.500	-3.300
Oswalt	10.300	14.000	-3.700
Geary	-2.000	1.700	-3.700
Byrdak	-3.200	1.000	-4.200
Brocail	-2.200	2.500	-4.700
Valverde	3.000	8.000	-5.000
Erstad	-4.100	1.750	-5.850
Lee	10.600	18.500	-7.900

Ruminations on the Astros being .500 at the ASB

HighLeveragePerformer — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 11:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Rob Carr - AP

Jason Castro and Bud Norris offer the Astros two legitimate prospects to be excited about.

Browse more photos »

Roy Oswalt and Lance Berkman struggle mightily to start the season.

Jose Valverde, Doug Brocail, and Mike Hampton all miss significant time.

Geoff Geary goes Oscar Villareal on us.

Brandon Backe goes all Brandon Backe on us.

Our offense ranks in the bottom of the NL in runs scored, SLG%, HR and just about every other meaningful category.

Brian Moehler, Russ Ortiz and Hampton don't stink up the place, but are what they are: veteran pitchers who rely more on grit than anything else.

............................................................................................

Two waiver wire pick ups solidify the bullpen, and LaTroy Hawkins continues to pitch well in an Astros uniform.

Hunter Pence lays off that pesky slider, en route to becoming the sort of player we all hoped he would be.

Arguably the worst offensive player in MLB last year, Michael Bourn, alters his game and has a remarkably consistent first half of 2009.

Geoff Blum collects three game winning hits, plays better defense than most thirty five year olds, and gets on base at a .350 clip.

Wandy Rodriguez picks up the slack when Roy started poorly, and has seemingly put everything together in order to give the Astros the number two pitcher they've lacked in recent seasons

Chris Sampson, though his innings piled up, induced grounders and added to the bullpen's overall strength

Bobby Heck's forsight in selecting Jason Castro with the tenth overall selection in the 2008 draft. Baseball America ranks Castro as the #19 prospect in all of baseball. Jordan Lyles is ranked in the top fifty.

The Lexington Legends' starting rotation is the best collection of young starters in Low A ball, and most likely the whole of the minor leagues.

Jason Castro smacked a three run home run in the All Star Future Game. Chia Jen Lo impressed the folks at ESPN as well.

Felipe Paulino showed flashes of brilliance, and Bud Norris, Polin Trinidad and Yorman Bazardo are young arms that will help the Astros sooner rather than later.

........................................................................................................................................

The Astros are .500, and are an infinitely more interesting team in July than they were in April. We open up the second half in Los Angeles, and I for one can't wait for this break to be over.

Rate your GM: The Astros under Ed Wade

HighLeveragePerformer — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 12:01:02 -0000

More photos » by Ann Heisenfelt - AP

Ed Wade had faith in Michael Bourn when few did.

Browse more photos »

With the signing of first round selection Jiovanni Mier completed, I felt like this was an undoubtedly positive step in the development of the Astros organization. So much of being an Astros fan of late has been about wondering what course this organization was going to take. Would it be a continuing path toward mediocrity- neglecting our farm system/player development, and emphasizing a "win now" philosophy highlighted by signing and trading for veteran talent? Or would the Astros realize the folly of their ways, and reinvigorate the base of their organization by investing more time, money and effort in the evaluation of talent and minor leagues in general?

When Ed Wade was hired as Astros GM September 21, 2007, a lot of people were skeptical. Sure, he had constructed the nucleus of the Philadelphia Phillies team that would win the World Series a year later, but a lot of his transactions weren't looked highly upon. As Astros GM, his first move was to trade Jason Lane for cash considerations. This wasn't a trade that did much to alter the perception of Wade around baseball. Lane was a remnant of our World Series club, someone whose talent had run its course. If anything, he should have been traded the year before.

The 2007-2008 offseason saw a flury of moves that dramatically altered the face of the team. Of course, the headliner was the trade that essentially sent Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett to Philadelphia for Michael Bourn and Geoff Geary. Since the trade, each player has had one good season. Lidge as we all know was perfect in save opportunities for the Phils last season, outproduced his contract by almost 50%, and was worth 2.2 wins above a replacement level player- a hefty margin for a relief pitcher. This season, a largely ineffective Lidge has suffered due to injury. Michael Bourn has gone from one of the worst regulars in baseball in 2008 to an offensive threat, who gets on base well, plays a solid centerfield, and is the Astros only true basestealing threat.

Following the Lidge/Bourn deal, Wade traded prospects and "role players" for established big leaguers. Oscar Villareal, Jose Valverde, Miguel Tejada and Randy Wolf all became Astros within a year of Wade becoming General Manager. Of those players, three of four would end up playing major roles in our almost/not quite/ill fated/Hurricane Ike damaged 2008 playoff push. Oscar Villareal (much like Geoff Geary this season) was ineffective to the point where the team demoted him to AAA. He was eventually released.

On the flip side, many of the players traded away- Josh Anderson, Matt Albers, Dennis Sarfate, Luke Scott, Juan Gutierrez and Chad Qualls have gone on to perform at least on a small time basis for their various clubs. The trade for Jose Valverde has always been a bit puzzling to me. True, having a big time closer is nice, but having his big salary is not. Qualls has been solid-good in his time in the desert, and Juan Gutierrez would surely be able to compete for a spot in our bullpen. Luke Scott has perhaps played above his head in 2009, but he has shown a penchant for getting on base, and is a player whose contract is modest. How does an outfield of Luke Scott-Michael Bourn-Hunter Pence grab any of you? Before you think, "Wow! Our defense sure would improve!", don't be so sure. I was fooled into thinking Scott would be a bigger upgrade defensively, too. Carlos Lee was someone Wade had no part in signing, and wasn't someone who could be dealt with (any) ease whatsoever. The corner outfield spots would be set for years to come, and with Bourn penciled in as our centerfielder of the future, Scott had no place on the Astros. He was a veteran who had reached his peak most likely.

The player that Luke Scott and co. were dangled to obtain, Miguel Tejada, was overpriced, aging and a shell of the player he was once. He was a guy the Astros had been targeting for a few seasons, and when the opportunity to get him arose, Wade took it. The Mitchell Report, his jump in age, and a rather mediocre season offensively didn't help the trade seem any better. His being on the Astros speaks to, again, the lack of any minor league talent at the AA or AAA level when Wade came on as GM. If a better, more cost effective option existed, this trade may never have happened. Hamstrung as he was, Wade did what he could to ensure the Astros wouldn't be without a shorstop that fit the Drayton McLane mentality of thinking about the present, and worrying about the future in the...well...future.

Since then, Jeff Fulchino, Wesley Wright, and LaTroy Hawkins were brought in and have been intergal parts of the Astros bullpen at one time or another. Ed Wade has been known to be a GM who emphasizes building a good bullpen, and while his results with the Astros have been mixed in my opinion, I would think that relief pitching has been closer a strength during the Wade administration rather than a weakness. Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Hampton and Russ Ortiz are well past their prime free agent acquisitions that have each played a part in keeping the Astros in the hunt this season. All were low risk acquisitions, and I don't think the Astros are where they are without them.

Perhaps the most important achievement of Ed Wade during his time in Houston has been the signing, promotion and influence of Asst. GM Bobby Heck. I realize that one person can't single handedly turn around a franchise, but Heck has come close. He has exerted his personality at the minor league level by bringing in his scouts, promoting players faster through our system, and most importantly signing draft picks. When in the past Drayton McLane wouldn't overpay a draft pick above his slotted price, last season saw the team do just that with Jason Castro. Castro came in and was immediately impressive, and is already in AA and playing well. Other highlights of the farm system include: the quintet of fine Lexington starters, Chia Jen Lo and his ascendancy from little known Taiwanese pitcher to legitimate major league prospect and the faith to draft Jason Castro as early as he did. Experts did not particularly like the Astros 2008 draft, but many if not all have changed their opinions since.

With help from a good personnel man, faith in young players, and trades that buoyed the Astros chances in a playoff push, Ed Wade has done much to improve the Astros during his tenure as GM. There were moves he made or didn't make that were head scratchers, but the structure of the team before Wade arrived influenced those decisions a great deal. Since he arrived though, the organization as a whole is stonger and better equipped to compete in the future.

Poll

What grade has Ed Wade earned while GM of the Astros?

A

8 votes

B

77 votes

C

48 votes

D

24 votes

F

17 votes

174 votes | Poll has closed

The Astros Bullpen: Two groups, Two different results

HighLeveragePerformer — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y Huh - AP

6 months ago: Houston Astros closer Chris Sampson celebrates after the Astros defeated the Chicago Cubs 6-5 in a baseball game, Sunday, May 17, 2009, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh)

Browse more photos »

Astros' relievers have collectively had a weird season thus far.

How weird is it???

It's this weird. Maybe the standard pitching statistics don't tell the whole story with this group, but if we delve a little deeper I think we'll see some of the oddities of this team's bullpen. 2008 mainstays, guys like Geoff Geary, Doug Brocail and Wesley Wright have been either in and out of commission, or extremely ineffective. In their stead, Jeff Fulchino, Alberto Arias and Russ Ortiz have pitched effective, important innings for the Astros.

All three have gone against an overall bullpen trend of allowing more home run(s)/nine innings than average:

Jeff Fulchino	.64
Alberto Arias	.49
Russ Ortiz	.72
Astros Relievers	1.15

These high home run rates have led to a high bullpen FIP of 4.57- more than half a run higher than their ERA (4.06). Two aspects of this phenomenon interest me a great deal. First of all, our six best relievers at limiting the long ball are all in the top seven in terms of innings pitched out of the 'pen. Besides the three guys I've already mentioned, LaTroy Hawkins, Chris Sampson and Tim Byrdak allow less than one home run per nine innings. For most of these pitchers, that means one homer every nine appearances, if not more.

But wait, you say- how is the bullpen's HR/9 rate 1.15 if a majority of the innings have come from low HR total pitchers? It just so happens that the missing link in the top seven innings pitched is Geoff Geary- he of the four homers allowed in just twenty innings pitched. The remaining pitchers who have pitched in relief for the Astros haven't thrown that many innings, but have allowed a ridiculously high amount of home runs in their innings pitched:

Brandon Backe	9 IP	3 HR
Geoff Geary	20 IP	4 HR
Jose Valverde	11.1 IP	3 HR
Wesley Wright	16.1 IP	3 HR
Doug Brocail	5.2 IP	2 HR
Felipe Paulino	3 IP	1 HR

The second point that interested me was that the Astros bullpen is a ground ball oriented group. A high HR/FB% should regress to the average, leaving the Astros bullpen better off in terms of run prevention. The odds are in their favor, and the right players should be getting the ball quite a bit more.

MLB Draft Wraps up with Rounds 31-50; Thoughts on Mier, Tejada, Valverde, Geary, Castro and more

HighLeveragePerformer — Thu, 11 Jun 2009 15:11:18 -0000

We made it through sixty percent of the draft and TCB has been host to a great amount of discussion and thought on who the Astros chose, what they did right and what they may have done wrong. I want to thank everyone for swinging by and giving your two cents. Ideally, that's what a good blog is- a forum for intelligent reparte, analysis, and thought. This week at TCB has been a perfect example of blogdom utopia- well done, folks!

These last twenty rounds can be interesting, in that, successful organizations never just draft players to draft them, and they find a way to put competitive people into an environment where their chances of succeeding are enhanced. Perhaps none of the players the Astros draft today will ever grace the diamond at Minute Maid Park, but they will play with those that will, so drafting quality performers in these later rounds is extremely important. Building on strengths is important. Our farm system is far from strong, but completing the job today will go a long way to furthering that goal.

Depending on when the draft finishes, I'll do my absolute best to post a chart detailing our selections, along with any links I can find to their college/high school profiles. Now then, on to some "grown-up" Astros news:

What do y'all think of this story about first round pick Jiovanni Mier disclosing that an Astros scout reportedly told him that the team was interested in getting "rid" of Miguel Tejada? It was definitely dumb for a scout to have told a 17, 18 year old something like that, if in fact a scout did say something along those lines. More than anything, it should be a light turns on moment for the young Mier, who in a days time went from high schooler to a rich professional baseball player with a city's worth of expectations riding on his performance. That transition is surely a tough one, and learning discresion in the face of a reporter's question is a lesson that Mier was going to have to learn eventually. Unfortunately for him it came the day after he was selected, and in the midst of a tough early season for the Astros.

Going back to the JJO article, Geoff Geary was sent down to Round Rock and will be forced to either accept that demotion or seek other shores on which to play baseball. Considering how he is ready to return from the DL, this had to have come out of nowhere if you're Geary. Heading into this season, I was of the opinion that Geary was due for a pretty decent regression from his performance last season, and that has proven to be the case. As for Ed Wade's point that Jeff Fulchino and Alberto Arias have performed well, he is right on both accounts. Neither has given up an exorbitant amount of baserunners, and both have limited the long ball. Arias is more of a strikeout pitcher than Fulchino, while the limiting walks is more Fulchino's forte. Each has done exceedingly well in limited action, and when a team is struggling just to tread water, you have to plug holes in the dam however you can. Geary was one such hole, and his plugs have fit in quite well.

It's already the middle of June. One third of the season is complete, and trade chatter is beginning to fill the air. While before the season Geoff Geary was potential trade bait, he has now been relagated to a persona non value-a. However, the Astros roster still has potential chips. LaTroy Hawkins is someone who has shown that he can fill in as a closer if need be, and can certainly be a bridge to the closer on a contending club.

An even bigger fish in the sea that is our bullpen is Jose Valverde. Proven closers have shown to be able to land a hefty return in the trade market. Regardless of whether the Astros are five games under .500 or five games over .500, Valverde should be made available. The Astros have spent too many deadlines waiting for their patented run, and while it has come more times than not, it's a risk that this organization cannot responsibly make. Given our farm system's lack of talent, a player like Valverde could yield a bounty of young players. Remember, the Texas Rangers turned Eric Gagne into three minor leaguers two seasons back. One of which (David Murphy) has turned out to be an almost every day player. Imagine what the back to back NL saves leader could get the Astros in a swap?

In an interview with a local radio show host, Cecil Cooper hinted that the Astros may be ready in the near future to call up Bud Norris and/or Yorman Bazardo. With the struggles of Brian Moehler and the questionable recent success of Mike Hampton (against the Pirates, who doesn't perform well against those guys?), it probably couldn't hurt to at least introduce them to the major leagues. Neither may be a future starting pitcher for the Astros, but both will be a part of team at some point. Anything to keep Brandon Backe at bay...While we're at it, I realize that the odds of Jason Castro playing in AAA this season aren't great, so I know this next statement has a snowball's chance in hell of happening- but if the Astros are out of it in September, I will be irked if Jason Castro isn't brought up to play out the string of meaningless games. The job will be his within a year's time, and the opportunity will be there to give him a crash course in playing on this level. At the beginning of 2010 let him begin the season in Round Rock, and once he finds his rythym in AAA, call him up to The Show.

The Astros drafting two thirdbasemen in the first ten rounds of the draft tells me that Bobby Heck and Ed Wade are not sold on Chris Johnson being our everyday third baseman. I don't blame them. Johnson has three walks in ninety-five ABs in AAA this season, compared to twenty-two strike outs. He can get away with that against AAA pitchers, but he may end up being another Jeff Francouer once he faces major league pitching.

Monday Morning Astros, etc. Round Up

DyingQuail — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 09:00:23 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

I'll leave the caption to you guys.

Browse more photos »

This might be the last link dump for the week as I'm about to go on a road trip to New York with some friends, my apologies. If I can find a computer, though, I'll make it happen. For now, drink this one in:

Jose Valverde will throw two rehab outings at AA Corpus on Wednesday and Thursday and if all goes well, he'll rejoin the club to square off against the Diamondbacks.
Felipe Paulino is day to day with his "little" groin strain (his words).
Kaz Matsui could be back with the team sometime during the Cubs series. I'm not very excited about that.
Solomon has notes about Geoff Geary and Jose Valverde's simulated games and a reminder to enjoy this stretch of the schedule and the winning it has brought.
Miguel Tejada, apparently, is only really trying at defense every other year.
The Hardball Times version of power rankings (you'll need to scroll down a bit...unfortunately).
For the Mac users in the audience who are itching to try their hands at saber-challenges, BtB is helping us marginalized, but über hip, people out.