SB Nation - Jeff Bennett

Wednesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 15:18:10 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Felipe Lopez reacts after learning Doug Melvin has decided not to offer him arbitration, against the advice of roughly 90% of the BCB community.

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Some things to read while raising your expectations.

Actually, lowering your expectations might be a better move. An already disappointing Brewer offseason got even worse yesterday, as the Crew declined to offer arbitration to all five of their Type B free agents, forfeiting any chance to receive compensation picks when/if they signed with another team (FanShot).

Yesterday, I asked you to vote on which players should receive offers. 202 voters weighed in, and here are the results, as promised:

Felipe Lopez, 88%
Mike Cameron, 48%
Braden Looper, 7%
Jason Kendall, 3%
David Weathers, 3%

So, nearly 90% of what I consider to be a pretty knowledgeable community of Brewer fans wanted the team to go one way with Lopez, and Doug Melvin went the other. If that's not a microcosm of the offseason so far, I don't know what is. We split pretty much down the middle on Cameron, which is interesting, and the small percentages of votes for Looper, Kendall and Weathers are proof that some Cub fans stopped by to vote in the poll. Thanks for visiting.

Here's some more reaction from around the web:

SgtClueLs of Fire Doug Melvin, which likely gained some new bandwagon members yesterday, has a how-to guide on screwing up arbitration.
The decision earned Melvin a special distinction over at Brew City Sports.
View From Bernie's Chalet doesn't get the logic.
In-Between Hops doesn't get the outrage.

If it makes you feel any better, several other teams didn't offer arbitration to any of their free agents, either. Amazin' Avenue has the full rundown of arb offers: 32 players were given the option, out of a possible 68. There is a small silver lining there: Because the supplemental round is now guaranteed to be no longer than 32 picks, the value of the Brewers' second round pick in the draft just went up a bit. It will continue to increase if players accept arbitration or re-sign with their own teams.

After reading today's news, I'm sure you're itching to run down to Miller Park and give the Brewers more of your money, right? Well, you're in luck: the Clubhouse Sale is this weekend, giving you the opportunity to check out some discounted Brewer items and game-used memorabilia. You probably won't be as lucky as Tom H., though, who once purchased the final Brewer jersey worn by Julio Machado.

Of course, it's not all bad news today: The Brewers also officially announced the signing of John Halama.

In the minors:

Prospects Paradise has the Brewers' State of the System up, with scouting reports on eleven Brewer prospects. Overall, they give the organization a C for Impact Talent and a C- for Depth.
The Baseball Chronicle is on a mission to rank the top 200 prospects in the minors. Alcides Escobar checked in at #27 and Brett Lawrie is #57.

Around baseball:

Braves: Have reportedly reached a deal with Billy Wagner on a one year, $7 million deal with a vesting option for 2011.
Phillies: Signed catcher Brian Schneider to a two year deal.
Rays: Designated reliever Jeff Bennett for assignment and acquired Kelly Shoppach from the Indians for a PTBNL.

With the Rays acquiring a catcher yesterday, it's becoming increasingly likely they'll non-tender incumbent catcher Dioner Navarro. Evan Brunell of The Hardball Times lists the Brewers as one of ten teams that could be interested in his services, but whiffs on their current situation, listing Angel Salome as the top internal option.

At least we still have the Rule 5 Draft, right? Bucs Dugout has a look at another potential pick: Yankees pitcher George Kontos.

Sometimes I'm just not in the mood for heavy statistical analysis and whatnot, but I know some of you always are, so here's a post from Baseball Analysts on salary and WAR, looking at the correlation between the two. It's the kind of thing I'd attempt to comprehend on a normal day. Today, I'm just not in the mood.

There's a new leader in the clubhouse in the competition for minor league baseball's greatest logo. Ladies and gentlemen, I introduce to you the Richmond Flying Squirrels. (h/t Baseball America)

Yesterday I mentioned the Baseball Hall of Fame's Facebook fan page, and later realized it's been a long time since I've plugged ours. If you're a fan of BCB, you can show it to the world by adding us here. Oh, and follow us on Twitter, too.

No Brewer birthdays today, so we'll have to settle for wishing a posthumous happy birthday to Darryl Kile, who would have turned 41.

Now if you'll excuse me, I have some traveling to do.

Drink up.

Tampa Bay Rays Offer Type-B Free Agents Brian Shouse & Gregg Zaun Salary Arbitration; Designate Jeff Bennett for Assignment

R.J. Anderson — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 00:52:40 -0000

Per Topkin's Twitter.

No big loss with Jeff Bennett if he's plucked off waivers. Could've been useful, turned out not to be. Such is a scene in the life of a right-handed middle reliever.

The bigger news is the Rays could stand to gain a pair of second round picks if Gregg Zaun and Brian Shouse decline salary arbitration and sign elsewhere. This also gives Zaun the chance to return if he accepts or if the two sides reach an agreement. He doesn't hit for a high average, home runs, or produce runs (in the sense of RBI, he gets on base which is about a zillion times more important in real person world) so arbitration may not be kind to his type. Shouse appears to be he more risky of the two, but we'll see.

Apparently no decision has been reached on Russ Springer, he too could bring the team an additional second round pick.

The deadline to tender players under team control is December 14th. The events of today sure don't look good for Dioner Navarro and Shawn Riggans.

Braves 2009 Season in Review: Middle Relief

gondeee — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 15:48:31 -0000

More photos » by John Heller - AP

Atlanta Braves reliever Peter Moylan was one of the most valuable members of any team's bullpen last year.

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Middle relief is never a sure thing in baseball. The Atlanta Braves have been lucky in the past to have cobbled together good middle relief corps. They haven't been so lucky the last few years, but last year they did a decent job of assembling good middle relievers while working around some injuries.

The most striking thing about the 2009 middle relief crew was how fast the team was to make a change early in the year. The Braves hadn't broke camp a week when they released Blaine Boyer after two (out of three) disastrous outings. Blaine bounced around the rest of the season, ultimately finding some success (or luck) in Arizona. The Braves were also quick to cut ties with Jeff Bennett after he went kung-fu on the clubhouse wall.

Peter Moylan

Perhaps the rock of the 2009 bullpen, Peter Moylan appeared in 87 games only a year removed from Tommy John surgery. He got off to a rough start, but continued to battle, and posted a 1.00 ERA in the second half of the season. He gave Bobby Cox the luxury of having a second setup man, and his 25 holds led the team and ranked 6th in the NL.

Going back to the 87 games he appeared in, that should raise some alarms, but Moylan insists he likes to pitch that much and many say that his arm angle puts less strain on the elbow than an overhand motion. Those 87 games ranked one game behind the NL leader in appearances for a pitcher, and the Braves had 4 relievers in the top-10 in appearances.

Eric O'Flaherty / Boone Logan

One of those relievers who was in the top-10 in appearances was Eric O'Flaherty. The lefty specialist appeared in 77 games (56.1 innings pitched) and put in his best work as a major leaguer. The Braves got him off the waiver wire from Seattle last off-season, and he beat out Boone Logan in spring training for the LOOGY role. A minor pick up at the time, his good season makes that move look genius -- getting a reliever like that without having to give up anything.

Boone Logan came over as part of the Javier Vazquez trade. He was called up several times in 2009, but had spotty success while being used rather sparingly by Cox.

Here is a breakdown of all the lefty relievers on the Braves in 2009, and how they did versus left and right-handed batters:

Pitcher	BA vs. RH	BA vs. LH
Mike Gonzalez	.218	.194
Eric O'Flaherty	.282	.215
Boone Logan	.364	.231

O'Flaherty was pretty close to Gonzalez in handling lefties, but Logan wasn't that far away either. The big difference between O'Flaherty and Logan comes when they're facing right-handed hitters, with Eric having the clear advantage in that department. The Braves will probably want to keep all the depth they can, but Logan is out of options and arbitration eligible this year, so a non-tender might be in his future.

Kris Medlen

While Medlen posted a respectable 4.26 ERA for a rookie, his ERA as a reliever was even better at 3.47. He struck out more than a batter per inning in relief and gave up less than a hit per inning while keeping his walks in check. He was used inconsistently at times, getting long rests only to pitch on consecutive days. This unfamiliarity with the major league bullpen role caused Medlen to admittedly undergo some growing pains, but his work ethic kept his spirits up and his mind ready for any situation.

He could certainly move into a setup role next year, and may become one of the more indispensable members of the Atlanta pen. With the Atlanta rotation at 120% capacity, there's little chance that he would move back to a starting role, but his familiarity with starting may make him an ideal emergency swing man -- further increasing his value to the bullpen and the team.

Manny Acosta

Here are Acosta's ERAs the last three years:

2007 - 2.28
2008 - 3.57
2009 - 4.34

Meanwhile his FIP has hovered around 4.77, and has never been below 4.25, so that should tell us that Manny is either getting real lucky or he's getting bailed out by other Atlanta relievers -- either way it seems to be catching up to him. He is becoming more and more worthless, and that tells me his spot in the pen is in question.

Others

Jo-Jo Reyes and James Parr could find some time in the bullpen in 2010, though neither is ideal for the role. Luis Valdez is doing well in winter ball, and he could play a prominent role in the pen as well. I wondered why the Braves didn't use him more this year, especially towards the end, but maybe they wanted him to get work in winter ball and not the majors.

As always, there is a lot of work to be done this off-season to bolster the Atlanta bullpen.

The Rays and The Rule 5 Draft

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:30:13 -0000

The front office will undoubtedly be faced with many tough decisions this winter. We've discussed many of them; Crawford, the catcher situation, whether or not to trade Bartlett, etc. One decision that won't be so tough is deciding which players to put on the 40 man roster, the deadline for which is Friday.

Currently the Rays have three open spots on their 40 man roster, with another one possible since Jeff Bennett is not likely to remain with the team. There's no question that two of the roster spots will go to Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, two of the top prospects in the organization, and baseball in general. As RJ noted a couple of months ago, the third spot will probably go to Aneury Rodriguez, the young reliever the Rays received in the Jason Hammel trade. The remaining roster spot, assuming Jeff Bennett isn't still around, will likely remain open to leave room for any player the team selects in the Rule 5 draft.

The organization has done many things right over the last few seasons, but Rule 5 draft has been one they have yet to figure out, though in their defense not many teams do. Here is a list of the Rays Rule 5 draft picks since 2006:

2006: Ryan Goleski

Goleski was selected first overall by the Rays, but would not stick around long and was sent back to Cleveland. After a .249/.333/.429 season in 2008 he would be out of baseball at 26 years old. The 2006 draft was the one that saw Josh Hamilton be claimed by the Reds after being left unprotected by the Rays. Also, Joakim Soria was selected second overall. He's ended up doing pretty well for himself.

2007: Tim Lehay

Once again the Rays would have the first selection, this time taking Tim Lahey. The 6'4 inch right hander would be a quick out; The Rays sold him to the Twins for cash considerations. No other players of note were taken in 2007.

2008: Derek Rodriguez

Upon the success of the 2008 season the Rays were finally not awarded the first pick. Instead they selected 19th and chose reliever Derek Rodriguez from the White Sox. Rodriguez would struggle in the spring and would be sold back to the White Sox for $25k. In this draft the Rays would unexpectedly lose reliever Eduardo Morlan, who they had acquired along with Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett in the Delmon Young trade, to the Brewers. However, Morlan would not make the Brewers roster and was sold back to the Rays for $25k, offsetting the cost of the Rodriguez deal.

As you can see, the Rule 5 draft has not been a very fruitful endeavor for the Rays in recent seasons, but that's ok. Getting lucky enough to draft a Johan Santana or Joakim Soria is fine and dandy , but protecting immense talents like Jennings and Hellickson far out weighs any player the Rays may select.

Top-5 Off-Season Questions for the Atlanta Braves: #3

gondeee — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 17:03:51 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

Should Mike Gonzalez re-assume the closer's role for the Atlanta Braves in 2010?

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We continue our look at the top-5 questions facing the Atlanta Braves this off-season.

Question Three: Who will be the Braves closer in 2010?

You heard it here first folks, the bullpen has the potential to be the biggest problem for the Braves this off-season. This season we had the luxury of having two closers at the back of our bullpen, and while they had their issues at times it was certainly a whole lot better than trying to get a save on a consistent basis from Jeff Bennett or Tyler Yates or Chris Reitsma. Our bullpen was a luxury, not as much of a luxury as having old 29 back there, but with Peter Moylan, Mike Gonzalez, and Rafael Soriano in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings we had a much better chance to win ballgames than we have in several years.

As good as they were, there were still some issues and plenty of blown saves, but our bullpen picked up 38 saves and was considered a strength of our club (for the most part). This off-season the two main parts of that pen are free agents, and this is a lean year for free agent closers. Both Soriano and Gonzalez are likely to be type-A free agents, meaning if we offer them arbitration we would get a first round draft pick were they to sign elsewhere. But that also means that other teams may be more hesitant to sign them for fear of losing a first round pick.

I've read some analysis that said baseball folks expect the Braves to offer arbitration to Gonzalez but not to Soriano. There is a danger in offering both of them arbitration as both could accept and re-sign and then we would be stuck with a pretty expensive bullpen next year, perhaps too expensive to afford. This is the reason being given for believing the Braves will let Soriano walk and go hard at Gonzalez. But if both of them leave... that would leave us in quite a predicament.

Would we use our starting pitching surplus to acquire a closer, or would we once again assemble a rag-tag group of spring training invitees hoping for a chance to make the pen (as was quite often done under John Schuerholz)? Hopefully the Braves have learned their lesson about needing a "quality" "proven" closer (I don't think I need to mention any names).

The Braves do have a couple of internal candidates. Craig Kimbrel and his funky delivery will be another one of the prospects in the Arizona Fall League, but he is still likely a year away as needs to sort out his problem with the bases on balls. Peter Moylan is certainly a durable arm and one that can get the strikeout from time to time, he could be an option. Kris Medlen could also close, but he was very inconsistent this year and may not be ready just yet. These aren't very good candidates, which further underscores the need for a proven commodity to close out games in Atlanta.

The only real other proven closer on the free agent market worth a damn is Jose Valverde of Houston. Yes there are others like Rodney and Gregg, but they aren't good. There is Billy Wagner, someone the Braves are rumored to be interested in, but he is coming off of surgery and is getting up there in age, so signing him may be a roll of the dice. All of that leads us back to either Gonzalez or Soriano.

Keep in mind too that the Braves could be well served by getting another setup man or two, since the last two spots in the pen are occupied by guys that Cox doesn't have much faith in. This is even more reason not to try and keep at least one of our 8th and 9th innings pieces around for at least another season.

Gonzalez seems to like Atlanta, and a chance to close here once again could persuade him to re-sign. I'd like to see the team offer arbitration to Soriano and go for that extra draft pick, but I don't think they'll risk it seeing how tight their finances are. Whatever scenario you throw out there it leaves us needing another reliever or two, so look for Atlanta to be very active on that front this off-season.

Coming up later, Question Four: Who will man first base for the Braves in 2010?

Atlanta Braves Minor League Recap: 8/31

cbwilk — Tue, 01 Sep 2009 06:10:07 -0000

Gwinnett 8, Durham 6

G. Blanco 5-6, 2 R
W. Timmons 3-5, 2B, R
B. Conrad 2-4, RBI
B. Canizares 2-5, 2B, 2 RBI
C. Burke 2-5, 2 2B, RBI
B. Barton 3-5, RBI
T. Redmond 5 IP, 5 R, 6 K

The offense ran wild in this game, racking up 18 hits, including 5, good for 2 runs, off former Brave Jeff Bennett. Brooks Conrad manged a few hits and an RBI in his final game with Gwinnett this year, as he'll join Atlanta tomorrow along with Clint Sammons and Luis Valdez. Brian Barton followed up yesterday's 2 hit game with 3 tonight and August was his second best month of the season.

Mississippi 2, West Tennessee 1

W. Cabrera 1-4, HR (8), RBI
K Kirkland 2-4, 2B
T. Jones 3-3, 2 2B, RBI
R. Reynoso 7 IP, 1 R, 2 K 5 BB

Willie Cabrera and Travis Jones continue their fine work of late, accounting for both M-Brave runs. Since the All-Star break Cabrera has hit .356 with a .922 OPS while Jones has hit .311 with a .860 OPS. Both are only 23 (though Jones turns 24 in November) and they've done a lot in the second half to retain their marginal prospect status. Ryne Reynoso puts up another solid start in a season where he's reaffirmed and perhaps increased his prospect status.

Wilmington 3, Myrtle Beach 0

C. Fuller 2-3
E. Cordier 4 IP, 3 R, 5 K, 4 BB
C. Rodgers 2 IP, 3 K

The Pelicans eeked out only 3 hits and struck out 16 times. In addition to their poor offense, they had Chris Shehan playing center field and Cole Miles playing short stop, so I'm sure the defense wasn't very pretty either. Chad Rodgers pitches in his 2nd game for Myrtle Beach and just 5th of the season after missing most of the year with elbow problems. He's been one of the Braves better prospects, so hopefully he'll be able to return to Myrtle Beach next year and post a successful, injury-free season.

Rome 2, Charleston 0

Y. Campusano 2-3, 2B, RBI, R
L. Sumoza 2-4
R. Barba 1-3, 2B
D. Delgado 7 IP, 0R, 7 K, 3 BB

Rome made the most of their hits in support of an outstanding outing by Dimaster Delgado. The 20 year old has had a very fine season for the R-Braves since joining the team in June, posting sub 3 ERAs in both June and August. 24 year old Ryan Barba, the second oldest player on the team and full time short stop, get a hit to nudge himself over the Mendoza Line.

Kingsport 12, Danville 2

C. Harrilchak 2-3
R. Spanjer-Furstenburg 1-3, HR (8), RBI
C. Bethancourt 1-3, HR (2), RBI
M. Crim 1 IP, 2 R

Matt Crim must have liked losing so much he thought he'd try it again. The Appy League Pitcher of the Year didn't really get a full start in though, and I'd assume it's so he can pitch in one of the league championship games later in the week. League MVP RSF slugs out yet another homer, as does my favorite teenage prospect, catcher Christian Bethancourt.

GCL Braves 5, GCL Yankees 3

D. Falcon 2-4, HR (3), RBI
K. Farrell 3 IP, 1 R, 3 K, BB

The Orlando Braves finish out their season with a win, finishing out their season 26-34, dead last in their division and 5th worst in the league. I guess the Braves save all their short season wins for Danville. I sort of remember Daniel Falcon playing 3B for the DSL team last year, but he played LF in this one. Either way, the 20 year old had a so-so season, definitely a disappointment compared to last year.

Pat Burrell Exits Game With Injury; Jeff Bennett Optioned, Chad Bradford Ready

Tommy Rancel — Sat, 15 Aug 2009 12:26:51 -0000

A couple of injury related notes from last night's loss. The neck injury that sideline Pat Burrell for 29 games earlier in the season was re-aggrivated during last night's game. Willy Aybar replace Burrell and there is a chance he could miss tonight's game. Burrell is still struggling at the plate, but has shown signs of power recently. His ISO for the last 25 games is a more Burrell like .241.

In an unrelated move, Jeff Bennett was optioned to Triple-A Durham. It was presumed that Bennett's optioning would make room for Chad Bradford, who is ready to return from the DL. However, with Burrell's injury the Rays may opt to call up a position player like Justin Ruggiano or Matt Joyce to help an already short bench. I find it odd that the Rays have carried eight pitchers for so long especially when they had an option on Bennett.

Early Impressions of Jeff Bennett

R.J. Anderson — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 18:11:06 -0000

Jeff Bennett has been a Ray for two weeks and he's faced 31 batters already. That's more than Chad Bradford has faced, almost more than Jason Isringhausen, one less than Dale Thayer, and almost as many as J.P. Howell faced in April. Early returns: eh, not so great. His FIP is 6.09 with the Rays, his tRA (now on FanGraphs, holla) is 6.18, and his K/BB ratio is disgustingly 1.00. He is doing some things right, his whiff rate is slightly up, his groundball rate is near 60% (although his BABIP is actually .349 which is insanely high for a ground-pounding specialist with a good defense behind him), and his home run rate is way too high to sustain. We labeled him a right-handed specialist when he arrived, and boy, is that ever the truth:

Versus righties (18 PA): .267/.389/.267

Versus lefties (13 PA): .364/.462/.727

The numbers will change, but the pattern is going to remain the same. He's built to take on normal human beings, not "left-handed" "people".

So that's Jeff Bennett. I noticed his fastball velocity was down 0.7 ticks from his time with the Braves. Having some pitchfx data on my hands I decided to run David Price's home/away velocities and see what gives, if anything:

Road starts (356 four-seamers): 93.8 MPH

Home starts (334 four-seamers): 92.9 MPH

Same exercise, but for James Shields:

Road starts (354 four-seamers): 91.2 MPH

Home starts (387 four-seamers): 90.0 MPH

I'm going to check the other pitchers before stating anything, but you can kinda see where this may lead.

Scott Kazmir Lit Up In Mariners 11-2 Rout Of Rays;

Tommy Rancel — Sun, 09 Aug 2009 23:00:11 -0000

More photos » by Elaine Thompson - AP

Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Scott Kazmir gave up seven runs in 4.1 innings. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

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After writing this article earlier in the week, I went into today's start looking at two things from Scott Kazmir: pitch usage and pitch location. After analyzing Kazmir's starts over the last six weeks or so, Kazmir is at his best when he works the third base side, has good control low in the zone, limits his fastball usage and throws around 27-30% sliders. When he's been bad his pitches have been up and towards the first base side. He also relies on his fastball a bit much and sometimes forgets his slider. Look at exhibit's A & B and you can see what kind of start he had today.

Exhibit A

via brooksbaseball.net

Exhibit B

	Fastball	Slider	Change
Usage	65.20%	21.70%	12%

More on the bad Kazmir after the jump...

A lot of fastballs and a lot of them up and over the plate.

It seems that Kaz had good movement on his slider, which moved in to righties and away from lefties, however, he didn't throw it enough and his control was off. His final line of 4.1 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 2 BB and 3 K's was definitely not what the Rays needed after getting to within 1.5 games of the wildcard and after giving away Friday's game.

There was no press release, but Jeff Bennett has officially assumed Jason Hammel's role as "The Human White Flag." Bennett was signed as a low risk/potential reward player; however, that potential reward is looking less likely with each appearance.

Over and over Kevin Kennedy said that Joe Maddon wasn't giving up on the game, but keeping an eye toward future games. However, when Maddon decided to leave Bennett and his career .864 OPS against the left handed Russell Branyan with the bases loaded, I think that was a sign the game was over. In case you were not convinced, he left Bennett out there for an addition inning as well as scrapping the DH and putting Pat Burrell in left field as a defensive replacement for Carl Crawford; seriously.

Russ Springer made his debut in garbage time and was greeted with back to back base hits before inducing a 4-6-3 double play and a strikeout on a swinging strike. Springer threw mainly fastballs, and at age 40 was pumping 92-93 regularly. He did throw a few pitches classified as sliders although some call it a cutter.

After a 10 run outburst on Saturday, the Rays offense was flat today. The team had another chance to bust the game open early, however, a bad luck liner off Burrell's bat turned bases loaded and one out into an inning ending double play. The Gregg Zaun/Dioner Navarro platoon looked good today as Navi belted a home run off lefty Ryan Rowland-Smith. Other than that...nada.

A day after things were looking so good, the Rays dropped back to 1.5 games behind the Rangers and could go back down 2.5 to the Red Sox. It's been like this all season, so I guess I should've seen a letdown coming. Take your Joe Maddon alloted 30 minutes to sulk on the loss and then it's time to focus on winning 2 out of 3 in Anaheim.

Evan Longoria is a Smart Defender; Rays Clobber Home Runs; David Price Starting to Look like Chris Carpenter

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 03:15:56 -0000

More photos » by Chris O'Meara - AP

4 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays' Evan Longoria, left, celebrates with teammate Carlos Pena after Longoria hit a two-run, game-winning home run off Boston Red Sox pitcher Takashi Saito in the 13th inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Aug. 4, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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When Evan Longoria chose against throwing home and took the out at first he effectively changed the potential course of the inning. The original situation had runners on second and third with nobody out, as Kevin Kennedy mentioned (again, and again, and a dozen more times for effect) Longoria could have thrown to home and likely allowed both runners to advance an extra base in a rundown. This basically puts the Rays in the same situation with one out. He chose to give up and out for a run and prevent adding another baserunner. Did he make the right call?
In the original situation you'd expect 2.1 runs to score. The play Longoria pursued resulted in a run expectancy of 0.73. If Longoria would've thrown home and gotten into a rundown without allowing either runner to advance a base the RE becomes 0.97, if both advance? 1.5. Odds are Longoria has never seen a RE matrix in his life, and if he has, he probably didn't know the exact figures. Still yet, he made the correct play, the smart play, the right play, and he never hesitated. The temptation of preventing a run from scoring is a strong one, but credit Longoria; he is an extremely intelligent defensive player and showed it tonight.
Pat Burrell and Carlos Pena have homered in the same game twice now. I'm not going to type "If Pat gets going," anymore - except for then - but I hope that number doubles by September.
I'll admit my expectations were set on a split entering this series. Thankfully my expectations were underrating this team's offense - funny how that works, eh? - and in a matter of two games we raised our playoff odds (Coolstandings version) from 29.7% to 36.3%. Each win was worth about 3.5%. Figure if we lose both our odds shoot down big time and this was a huge series to sweep, even if it was only two games.
Jeff Bennett should probably be used only when the run margin is +/- 5 against AL East teams.
Meanwhile Dan Wheeler pitched beautifully tonight.
David Price had a very solid start. Yes, two home runs allowed, but five strikeouts and zero walks over 24 batters faced. Since I wrote that piece on how his walks would regress he's faced 121 batters, struck out 22 (18%) of them and walked 5 (4.1%). That's Chris Carpenter folks, one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Now we head to Seattle. Don't sleep on them, we're heading into a park that limits right-handed power and facing one of the best defensive outfields in the majors. Odds are we won't score a ton of runs and even if we do their defense is going to force us to score them in interesting fashions. The good news is Jeff Niemann is the type of pitcher who should give Seattle fits with his two-seamer. Hopefully we can score against Felix Hernandez.