SB Nation - Doug Brocail

Morning Prowl: Tigers' Objectives, Morosi's Insight, Jackson Trade Talk, and Brocail's Hoping

Ian Casselberry — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 16:00:21 -0000

Here's an amusing quote from Jon Paul Morosi, previewing the Winter Meetings plans for each American League team:

I don't know what the Tigers are going to do this week. The Tigers don't know what the Tigers are going to do this week.

And this is from a guy that used to cover the team for the Detroit Free Press. But it does make you wonder what the Tigers' plan is going into these meetings. Last year, it seemed pretty clear: Get a catcher, a shortstop, and maybe a closer. Dave Dombrowski got to work on those immediately, too.

The objectives aren't quite as clear this December. Shortstop seems to be a priority. An outfielder - especially one who could also bat leadoff - might be a pursuit, as well. Strengthening the bullpen is also a big need, but how far will the Tigers go to sign a closer? Billy Wagner's $7 million contract with the Braves might have set the bar a bit higher than Detroit wants to go.

Okay, let's get to some of the scuttlebutt out there this morning:

USA Today's Bob Nightengale posted on Twitter that Edwin Jackson is still a hot name around the lobby at the Indiana Convention Center. According to him, most executives seem to think he'll be traded.

Maybe we should all read Kurt Mensching's Eight Simple Rules For Following the Winter Meetings at Mack Avenue Tigers before responding to that rumor.

Yahoo! Sports' Steve Henson says three to four teams are interested in outfielder Juan Pierre, and the Dodgers are looking at getting some kind of three-team deal done. In return, L.A. would get "a bad contract starter."

Mike Axisa at MLB Trade Rumors takes that a bit further and connects the dots to the Tigers, who (as we know painfully well) have several pitchers with bad contracts to unload.

Both MLive.com's Steve Kornacki and Blake VandeBunte at The Spot Starters think Pierre would be a good fit for the Tigers' lineup. This season, Pierre batted .308/.348/.372 with 30 stolen bases in 42 attempts. Playing mostly in left field, he posted a UZR of 6.7.

With the Dodgers, could reliever George Sherill also be a possibility? At The Detroit Tigers Weblog, Bill Ferris looks at his pitching and salary numbers.

And maybe reliever Doug Brocail is in the business of trying to start rumors himself. Brocail is on Twitter and mentioned that he was in Detroit over the weekend. Was it for business or leisure? Brocail didn't make that clear, but asked, "Maybe a revival a decade later with the Tigers?" Later, he added how much he enjoyed Detroit.

With the Astros this year, Brocail pitched in only 20 games, serving three (!) separate stints on the DL due to leg and shoulder injuries. He struck out nine batters and walked 13 in 17.2 innings, posting a 4.58 ERA.

2010 MLB Arbitration Tracker

Eric Simon — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 22:48:02 -0000

The deadline for offering salary arbitration to impending free agents is midnight tonight. Here are the latest decisions.

Player	Team	Type	Arb?	Updated
Jason Bay	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Doug Davis	Diamondbacks	B	NO	***
Mark DeRosa	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Justin Duchscherer	Athletics	B	YES	***
Chone Figgins	Angels	A	YES	***
Troy Glaus	Cardinals	B	NO	***
Vladimir Guerrero	Angels	B	NO	***
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	A	YES	***
John Lackey	Angels	A	YES	***
Darren Oliver	Angels	A	NO	***
Joel Pineiro	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Brian Shouse	Rays	B	YES	***
Billy Wagner	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Gregg Zaun	Rays	B	YES	***

The full arbitration decision list is after the jump.

Player	Team	Type	Arb?	Updated
Rod Barajas	Blue Jays	B	NO
Jason Bay	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Erik Bedard	Mariners	B	NO
Joe Beimel	Rockies	B	NO
Adrian Beltre	Mariners	B	YES
Rafael Betancourt	Rockies	A	YES
Doug Brocail	Astros	B	NO
Marlon Byrd	Rangers	B	YES
Kiko Calero	Marlins	B	NO
Johnny Damon	Yankees	A	NO
Doug Davis	Diamondbacks	B	NO	***
Carlos Delgado	Mets	B	NO
Mark DeRosa	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Octavio Dotel	White Sox	B	NO
Justin Duchscherer	Athletics	B	YES	***
Jermaine Dye	White Sox	A	NO
Chone Figgins	Angels	A	YES	***
Jon Garland	Dodgers	B	NO
Brian Giles	Padres	B	NO
Troy Glaus	Cardinals	B	NO	***
Mike Gonzalez	Braves	A	YES
Kevin Gregg	Cubs	A	NO
Vladimir Guerrero	Angels	B	NO	***
Rich Harden	Cubs	B	NO
LaTroy Hawkins	Astros	A	NO
Matt Holliday	Cardinals	A	YES	***
Orlando Hudson	Dodgers	A	NO
Nick Johnson	Marlins	B	NO
John Lackey	Angels	A	YES	***
Adam LaRoche	Braves	B	NO
Brandon Lyon	Tigers	B	YES
Jason Marquis	Rockies	B	YES
Guillermo Mota	Dodgers	B	NO
Xavier Nady	Yankees	B	NO
Will Ohman	Dodgers	B	NO
Darren Oliver	Angels	A	NO	***
Miguel Olivo	Royals	B	NO
Vicente Padilla	Dodgers	B	NO
Carl Pavano	Indians	B	YES
Andy Pettitte	Yankees	B	NO
Joel Pineiro	Cardinals	B	YES	***
Placido Polanco	Tigers	A	NO
Fernando Rodney	Tigers	B	YES
Ivan Rodriguez	Rangers	B	YES
Marco Scutaro	Blue Jays	A	YES
Brian Shouse	Rays	B	YES	***
Rafael Soriano	Braves	A	YES
Fernando Tatis	Mets	B	NO
Miguel Tejada	Astros	A	NO
Yorvit Torrealba	Rockies	B	NO
Jose Valverde	Astros	A	YES
Billy Wagner	Red Sox	A	YES	***
Randy Wolf	Dodgers	A	NO
Gregg Zaun	Rays	B	YES	***

Cecil Cooper from take off to landing

DyingQuail — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 12:00:27 -0000

by Gene J. Puskar - AP

6 months ago: Houston Astros manager Cecil Cooper walks in the dugout during a baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Pittsburgh Saturday, May 30, 2009. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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A one-hour plane ride and two torn out pages of the Bill James Handbook, that’s all I have. Perhaps it’s because I’m a grizzled veteran now, but probably because I know that I work best under a deadline (see: 3 AM the ~~night~~ morning before any important paper due in college); whatever the reason for this hare-brained idea, that’s what I’m working with to produce this post.

If you didn’t believe me when I said that I was going to be using the interesting things I’ve stumbled upon in the Bill James Handbook as fodder for 30 or so posts—believe.

Today’s topic: Cecil Cooper’s managerial statistics. The juicy details: after the jump.

James has a couple of pretty useful measures for us to talk about what we got with Coop in 2008 and 2009. Looking over the historical stats for various managers in the book, I noted how it seemed like a lot of these stats were driven by the kinds of teams that the managers could pull the levers with. But here’s the thing, Coop doesn’t really seem to fit that mold at all.

(Since I’m writing this in a bind, I don’t know that I’ll do the greatest job of holding onto my objectivity, but c’est la vie. I’ve now sat through an hour and half of delays and there will always be a part of me that will hold Coop in ire for 2009 being a second half nose-dive. My stasis is not the best for pure, rational objectivity.)

2008: The year that Coop drove us nuts with the running game

The Astros attempted 154 stolen bases, 81 sacrifices, and started the runners moving 112 times. Having loosely observed the various levels of these stats for other managers, this is a pretty high year for wasting outs. The stolen base has a negative run expectancy. A sacrifice obviously uses an out (and let’s be honest, Coop wasn’t using sacrifices in high leverage situations only), and I’ve never read anything on the statistical impact of sending the runners, but I imagine it’s probably not a wonderful statistical move.

Thinking about this team without the aid of FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, or any of my statistical sanctuaries, this wasn’t a shrewd move on Coop’s part. Subjectively, let’s think about the bone headed stolen base attempts we saw that year: Ty Wigginton and Carlos Lee on several occasions. There was, of course, the well-publicized "green light" policy and the neglect of telling Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn that simply being fast doesn’t mean you’ll steal with a lot of success.

These numbers don’t capture their effect. They’re just a count of attempts, but just thinking about the number of attempts with the cogs that were cranking the wheels, it’s not hard to say that this wasn’t the finest piece of utility maximization in the history of managing.

2009: The year that Coop, seemingly, destroyed the bull pen

There are only two numbers I need to give you (four really, but get off my back): 116 and 449 (108 and 488). The first number is the number of times that a reliever was used in consecutive days and the second is the total number of relievers used. The non-parenthetical numbers are 2009’s totals and the parenthetical are 2008.

In twelve less games than he had to work with 2008, Coop increased the number of consecutive days, while using nearly forty less relievers. While this probably isn’t the most damning usage of relief pitchers ever, let’s consider who Coop was working with:

Chris Sampson: Coming off an off-season elbow surgery.
Geoff Geary: Coming off an off-season hip surgery.
Doug Brocail: Coming off a season where he’d just been abused in the 8^th inning all year long. And yes, he was over the age of forty in both instances and had a faulty ticker.
Jose Valverde: Coming off his shredded calf muscle in April.
Relief pitcher X: The guy I should have mentioned but have forgotten as I realize I’m running out of time.

Just like with the running game in 2008, this isn’t to say that Coop definitively killed the Astros bullpen because determining that would take a lot more evidence than I have. Both of these brief blurbs are to point out that Coop had bad tendencies as a manager. The usage pattern in 2009 for our relievers was bone-headed. There’s no other way for me to describe it. During all of our discussions of what helped the Astros out pace their Pythag record in 2008, we all came back to our successful late-inning relievers. The second of 2009: we were trying to plug the links as they sprang up; ultimately, our ship sank.

So what’s the overall point of this (besides the challenge of writing all this between takeoff and landing)? To say that these are the small changes in managerial tactics that I think can hopefully give the Astros a better starting point in 2010. Brad Mills, please take note.

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:57:28 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

J.J. Hardy will most likely be traded this offseason, but no matter what Buster Olney says, he's almost certainly not going to be non-tendered.

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Some things to read while getting new cufflinks.

So, with the World Series possibly one day away from being over, we're quickly closing in on hot stove season. Let's start today's rumor roundup with J.J. Hardy. Buster Olney thinks the Brewers could non-tender Hardy, but Al and I both agree that the concept is sheer lunacy. The logic behind it (as cited on MLB Trade Rumors) is beyond flawed:

Olney writes that the Red Sox inquired about Hardy at the deadline, but balked when the Brewers asked for excellent prospects in return. Olney wonders if this is a sign of things to come, and if no market for Hardy develops, would the Brewers be better off non-tendering the former All-Star?

So let me get this straight: The Brewers turned down an offer from the Red Sox because it wasn't enough. If nothing else develops, instead of returning to the Red Sox and asking for the same offer, Olney thinks the Brewers could let Hardy walk for free? On what planet does that make sense?

Roguejim also has a look at Hardy's trade value, and MLB Trade Rumors has a look at other shortstops that could be available via trade.

Elsewhere on the (hypothetical) market, we have Mat Gamel. MLB Trade Rumors has him listed among third basemen who could be on the move this offseason. The Nashville Sounds' website has an article from Baseball America with Gamel's reaction to a tough season offensively.

Until Jarrod Washburn either becomes a Brewer or signs somewhere else, his name is most likely going to keep coming up. Keep Turning Up the Heat! has a look at Washburn's recent performance and would accept a one year deal for him, but also notes that the 2010 Brewers are probably in trouble if Washburn is their biggest acquisition.

Meanwhile, Mike Cameron's name continues to come up in connection to other teams: The Cub Reporter has a look at Cameron as a potential fit in Wrigley in 2010, but doesn't think the two sides are a match.

As they suggested they would, the Brewers have found another job in the organization for former interim pitching coach Chris Bosio. He'll serve as the team's advance scout next season (FanShot).

Jonathan Lucroy is off to a hot start in the AFL, as he hit his second home run on Friday. Tom H. also got a positive review from a scout who recently saw Lucroy play for Peoria. Lucroy is probably a candidate to represent the Brewers when rosters are announced later today for the Rising Stars Game, which will be played on Saturday and broadcast live on MLB Network.

For more on Lucroy, the rest of the Brewers in the AFL and Alcides Escobar's season debut weekend in Venezuela, be sure to check out today's Fall/Winter League Update.

Elsewhere in the minors, I may have committed a Twitter foul. Yesterday afternoon I made a joke about the somewhat unexciting nature of Eric Arnett's recent Twitter activity, and today his account has been removed. Hopefully I'm not responsible for that. Meanwhile, Seth McClung has a picture of his daughter's Halloween costume.

Yet again, we have less-than-encouraging news about the depth of prospects in the Brewer organization, at least defensively: Alex Pedicini of The Hardball Times has the top four minor leaguers at each position, ranked by Total Zone, and there's not a single Brewer prospect among the 28 players listed.

Around baseball:

Astros: Declined their option for 2010 on Doug Brocail, and re-signed Geoff Blum to a one year deal worth $1.5 million.
Giants: Re-signed Freddy Sanchez to a two year deal worth $12 million, and declined their 2010 option on Noah Lowry. They also removed pitchers Justin Miller and Kelvin Pichardo from the 40-man roster. Miller is expected to become a free agent.
Indians: Removed pitchers Mike Gosling and Scott Lewis and infielder Niuman Romero from their 40-man roster.

Did Robin Yount use a corked bat? A game used Robin Yount bat with cork in it is up for auction, leading to discussion regarding the possibility. There's also a strong possibility the bat was corked sometime after it left Yount's possession. I'm reluctant to believe Yount corked the bat, for a simple reason: If Yount knew the bat was corked, he most likely also knew that someone would be able to figure out it had been tampered with. Why, then, would he ever give that bat away? That's like giving your autograph on the back of a steroid prescription.

Could John Maine be a reclamation candidate for Rick Peterson in 2010? Amazin' Avenue suggests he's a candidate to be non-tendered, but concludes the Mets should bring him back.

Baseball Analysts has an interesting look at pitchers' velocity and how it changes as the season goes along, broken down by several demographics. Most of the data isn't exceptionally surprising, but the difference in pitch speed between April and the rest of the season is pretty striking. (h/t Beyond the Box Score)

I'll admit it: I'm having a hard time getting excited for or paying much attention to the World Series. I have yet to sit through an entire game, and I've fallen asleep before the end of both games 3 and 4. Yet somehow, I don't feel as bad now that I know that Jon Heyman caught writers playing Scrabble and solitaire on their computers during Game 3.

Among the five candidates (Lopes, Royster, Yost, Sveum and Macha), I think you can make a solid case that Jerry Royster was easily the worst Brewer manager of the 2000's, even among a pretty bad field of contenders. With that said, his stuff apparently works in Korea, where he has led the Lotte Giants to back-to-back postseason appearances and signed a $600,000 contract extension over the weekend.

If you're hanging around the site tomorrow afternoon, you may notice some minor changes in the site as part of the visual refresh of the SB Nation platform. The changes will be minor, but will also be step one in a project to improve the load time of sites, which should be good news for everyone.

On this day in 1974, the Brewers acquired Hank Aaron from Atlanta for outfielder Dave May and minor league pitcher Roger Alexander. Aaron would go on to hit .232/.326/.360 in his final two seasons as a Brewer, make the 1975 All Star team and hit 22 home runs.

Happy birthday today to:

Taylor Green, 2009 Huntsville Star and current Brewer representative in the Arizona Fall League, who turns 23.
2007-09 Nashville Sound Lindsay Gulin, who turns 33.
Paul Ridgon, who made 27 starts as a 2000-2001 Brewer after coming over from the Indians in the Bob Wickman-Richie Sexson deal, and turns 34.
Paul Hartzell who appeared in four games for the '84 Brewers and turns 56.

Oh, and the Phoenix Desert Dogs ate mac and cheese after Friday's AFL contest. I don't know if they used this recipe.

Drink up.

Astros Roster Breakdown: The 2008 Offseason

davoag — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 13:00:23 -0000

by Pat Sullivan - AP

Look, waaay in the back...It's Ed Wade!

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Let's start the week off by looking at what the Astros did before and during the 2009 season. No major trades went down, nor were there any major signings. In fact, it sounds much like I'm sure this offseason will. Please give me your own take on the moves in the comments and what grade you'd give to Ed Wade for last season.

Move One: Signed Mike Hampton - The lefty Rob Lowe came at a bargain, earning 2 million dollars with 2 million in performance bonuses. I'm not sure if he met those, though. Hampton proved to be just what we thought he'd be: a little below league average and not very durable. For the money, though? You're not going to get much more.

Move Two: Signed Ivan Rodriguez - As a catcher with the Astros, it's fair to say Pudge failed. He started enough to break the record, but was pretty terrible when he did play. His OPS+ of 75 seemed to belie what fans saw on the field. It appeared that Pudge was having a meaningful impact on games, though his stat showed differently. Look at his splits in close and late situations, though: .359/.388/.406. Go even deeper, and you can see his numbers in high leverage situations: .280/.313/.320. Of course, this was offset by the fact that Rodriguez struck out all three times before getting to the late innings. He was a frustrating player, but his signing wasn't terrible, just ill-conceived.

Move Three: Signed Jason Michaels - Another guy who should have been better than he was. His career average of .269 should have made the Astros bench stronger, but Michaels couldn't put it together and struggled for much of the season. It also didn't help that he wasn't the best defensive replacement as a fourth outfielder. Still, who else were you going to get for 750K?

Move Four: Signed Russ Ortiz - With Hampton, he formed the "Let's Hope the Old Pitchers Can Revive With Us...Oh, Wait, HGH and Steroids are Banned...We're Screwed" duo. It's not the catchiest of names, but it is effective.

Move Five: Re-signed Doug Brocail - Doug was a pleasant surprise in 2008, but injuries derailed him last season. Who'd have predicted that the 42-year old reliever would have injury trouble? They're usually so reliable...Considering Brocail had injury trouble two years before, the Astros did well by stocking up on relievers with minor league deals, just in case. Was it 2.75 million well spent? Probably not.

Move Six: Re-signed LaTroy Hawkins - As I mentioned in my reliever rundown, Hawkins proved to be a reliable reliever for a second straight year. Whether this was due to the league he was in or to some sort of mechanical adjustment, the Astros have more than reaped the reward for a 3.5 million dollar contract.

Move Seven: Claimed Jeff Fulchino - Waiver claims like this show just good your advance scouts and major league scouts have to be. Fulchino provided a nice addition to the bullpen when Backe and Brocail both got hurt. Plus, Fulchino came much, much cheaper than either Hawkins, Valverde or Brocail. Oh, by the way, according to FanGraphs, he was also worth 3.4 million, which is more than all three of those relievers combined.

Move Eight: Signed Aaron Boone - I won't be glib here, since Boone had to go through too much this season. I respect the hell out of him for coming back and playing late in the season, but the Astros had to have wanted more out of him on the left side of the infield than they got. Still, here's hoping Boone continues to be in good health and can be a productive player, if he so chooses.

Midseason moves

Move Nine: Claimed Chris Coste - The former Phillie probably wishes he were in the World Series right now instead of the unemployment line. He should have been a lefty specialist off the bench, but hit worse against lefties than righties. Coste also didn't provide the pop the Astros needed when Berkman went down with an injury. Would they have been better served calling up Mark Saccomanno?

Move Ten: Traded away Ivan Rodriguez for Jose Vallejo and Matt Nevarez - This trade would have looked even better if the Rangers had made the playoffs and had to throw in another player. Still, the Astros basically paid 1.5 million for these two prospects. Not too shabby...

Move Eleven: Traded Drew Sutton for Jeff Keppinger - Boone's heart condition probably necessitated this trade to shore up the left side of the infield. As one of the commenters pointed out in the Mackanin post last week, Keppinger was only played at short after Mackanin put him there. Kepp did an okay job filling in for both Tejada and Blum. This trade happened before Chris Johnson broke his hand, but was certainly fortuitous. The Astros really didn't have anyone who could fill in for Blum on a regular basis.

Move Twelve: Claimed German Duran - This was a move for next season. We'll have to wait to see if Duran can contribute before passing judgement on it.

Overall, it was a mixed bag for GM Ed Wade. He made all the moves he could with no budget, tinkering around the margins and getting somewhat solid players. In both trades, it appears he got value, as Kepp is a good bench player and Drew Sutton didn't make much of an impact in Cincy, getting 66 big-league at-bats with an OPS+ of 68.

The Pudge signing was mandated by Drayton (I think), but give Wade credit for standing up to his owner enough to flip Rodriguez for some value. As disappointing as 2009 was in so many ways, Wade hasn't been among them. He's proven he can let Bobby Heck work his magic in the draft and can make those little moves that Gerry Hunsicker used to make so well.

Overall grade: B

Astros decline Doug Brocail's option

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:57:20 -0000

More photos » by John Amis - AP

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The Astros announced that they will decline relief pitcher Doug Brocail's option, buying him out for 250,000 dollars. Brocail, 42, made three trips to the disabled list en route to a subpar season where he went 1-0 with a 4.58 ERA.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Doug Brocail	1-0	20	0	0	0	0	1	17.2	21	9	9	4	13	9	4.58	1.92

Brocail owns a career 4.00 ERA over the course of 15 seasons. Brocail resurfaced with the Rangers in 2004 after missing the previous four seasons due to arm troubles.

Brocail pitched well down the stretch, and likely won't have trouble finding a job next season.

Friday Roundup: All the links fit to print

davoag — Fri, 30 Oct 2009 19:32:33 -0000

More photos » by Bob Levey - AP

Happy trails, Doug Brocail.

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What's that, you say...a discussion question and a links post, all in the same day? How do you find the time?

I'll answer that with a question of my own: It's Friday...would you rather be researching and writing an incisive and well-informed piece about something, or plowing through Season Three of LOST while at work and throwing together a couple of interesting posts where other people do the majority of the work?

Really? You'd choose the insight? Huh...

At any rate, here's a rundown of the day's interesting Astros news:

First, and most pertinent to the Astros, Doug Brocail's option was declined today, meaning he will be a free agent. As the story indicates, retirement is a possibility for him. No big loss for the bullpen and hopefully Drayton will spend the money elsewhere.

Here's a really interesting piece by Beyond the Box Score on the economy and free agency. Looking at the conclusions from this, it's kind of hard to buy Drayton's rhetoric about keeping the payroll down because of how the economy is performing, no?

One more link before getting into the Free Agency Speculation Hour...here's a long, yet cool documentary on the Hall of Fame as a museum. I've been to two different exhibits with material from the HOF; one was at the Museum of Fine Arts and one was at the Bush Library. Both were very neat and well-done. I've never been to Cooperstown myself, but hopefully once my little spud is a bit older, we can go enjoy it for the first time together.

So, now for a few stories where we speculate on the Astros offseason goals:

This story out of Denver talks about possibilities for Garrett Atkins. Given the discussion in the comments about the Astros and Orioles wanting similar types of players, could the Astros be interested in Atkins too? His home/road splits have been pretty terrible, but if they can get him on the cheap, is he worth taking a flier on?

Adam Kennedy is another interesting candidate for the swing infielder position the Astros need. He hit fairly well in the American League, so it's safe to say that while he'll be a year older and that his sample size wasn't that big in 2009, he'd have a good chance to maintain that level. At 4+ million, he's also not as expensive as some options and may take a one or two year deal.

Two trade possibilities that intrigue me are Kenshin Kawakami for the Braves and Mike Fontenot of the Cubs. Kawakami is owed more money that the Astros probably want to spend, but he was very good last season and doesn't really have a fit in the Atlanta rotation. Plus, the Braves have a couple other minor league arms that could be ready by next season, so they don't have to worry about depth. Would they take one of the Astros outfielders for Kawakami? Maybe even a guy like Koby Clemens?

As for Fontenot, he's cheap but doesn't really have a home with the Cubbies. I like his versatility and the fact that he had a higher road split than home the past two seasons shows he could probably succeed away from Wrigleyville. I also like his versatilty; he could play third passably and could fill in for Matsui when Kaz eventually gets hurt.

Just some things to think about...hope everyone has a good Halloween!

Astros Roster Breakdown: The Relievers

davoag — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 12:00:21 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Reliever Sammy Gervacio

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Your Tuesday morning special is a look at the 2009 Astros bullpen. First, though, I thought we could consider a question:

Can a minor league reliever be considered a prospect?

Almost all the Astros homegrown bullpen additions this decade have been starters in the minors before making the major leauge club. Guys like Billy Wagner, Brad Lidge and Chris Sampson made a successful transition into relievers, but started almost all of their games on the farm. Lately, though, the Astros have been moving prospects into the bullpen earlier in their minor league career and still giving them a shot to make the club.

As a comparison, only three players in the past 13 years have made their major league debut for the Astros after not starting more than 10 games in the minors. They were:

Wayne Franklin, came over from Dodgers, but was a minor league reliever before being called up in 2000. Franklin started just seven games in the minors before coming up during the first year at Enron, which was a wasteland of relievers. Remember the best pitcher in the 2000 bullpen, Joe Slusarsky? Yeah, it was bad. Franklin was sent back to the minors in 2001 and put into the starting rotation, much like the Astros are talking about doing with Wesley Wright (more on that later).
Brandon Puffer, went through three organizations before being called up in 2002, but only started six games in minors. Puffer doesn't show this as much, because he bounced around so much early in his career. Plus, his funky sidearm delivery was probably not though of as something that would hold up in a starter's role, forcing him into the 'pen.
Alvin Morman was called up in 1996, but only started 19 games in the minors. Even then, he was only used as a starter for part of one season (1994), when he started all 19 games at Double-A Jackson. Morman was a relatively high pick (6th round, 1991), but stayed in the pen for most of his career, as some leftys do.

That all changed this season when Sammy Gervacio made his big league debut. The 24-year old never started a game in the minors before appearing in 29 games this season over two stints in Houston. Another reliever, Chia-Jen Lo, is doing well in the Arizona Fall League after signing out of Taiwan last season. Lo also has been used mainly as a reliever along with a couple other mid-level prospects, like Danny Meszaros. Still, there is not a good history of guys with this profile succeeding. It will be interesting to track whether this is a trend that is changing or if these prospects will flame out once they get to the show. With that, let's get on with a look at the bullpen...

Tim Byrdak, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-2, 61 1/3 IP, 3.23 ERA, 76 games, 58 strikeouts, 36 walks, 10 HR, 1.22 WHIP, 129 ERA+

FIP: 5.29

Leverage: 24 High, 13 Medium, 36 Low

BABiP: .188

GB/FB: 0.71

Pitching Runs Created: 30

Notes: For a lefty specialist, Byrdak sure developed into a solid pitcher for the Astros. It really surprised me that he pitched in so many high leverage situations. His peripheral stats are worrying, as he was EXTREMELY lucky to give up so few hits and without a good defense, Byrdak would not have done nearly this well. The two things that jump out (other than his FIP and BABiP) were his homer rate (1.5 HR/9) and his walk rate (5.3 BB/9). Both were right in line with his career numbers, but are not great, especially the walk rate. At the same time, Byrdak has put up three straight seasons with ERAs of 3.00, so he's doing something right. Hopefully, he'll still be effective in 2010.

Chris Sampson, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 4-2, 3 saves, 55 1/3 IP, 5.04 ERA, 49 games, 33 strikeouts, 21 walks, 2 HR, 1.57 WHIP, 82 ERA+

FIP: 3.24

Leverage: 25 high, 10 medium, 14 low

BABiP: .335

GB/FB:1.17

Pitching Runs Created: 15

Notes: Talk about a hard luck season. Sampson suffered muscle spasms in his shoulder and was put on the DL in July. He came back but was ineffective and was finally optioned to Round Rock on August 13. Sampson pitched in some very tough situations and was somewhat unlucky before the injury, but his shoulder may still not be right. His FIP was much lower than his ERA, but his strikeout rate plummeted. Basically, Sampson was very hittable and that needs to change if he's going to be successful in 2010.

LaTroy Hawkins, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-4, 11 saves, 63 1/3 IP, 65 games, 2.13 ERA, 45 strikeouts, 16 walks, 7 HR, 1.20 WHIP, 195 ERA+

FIP: 3.92

Leverage: 35 high, 10 medium, 17 low

BABiP: .283

GB/FB: 0.86

Pitching Runs Created: 39

Notes: Hawkins put up great numbers, especially considering he pitched in more high leverage situations this season than any other Astros reliever. He'll be 37 next season in his 16th big league season. Fun fact: Hawkins actually started 129 games in the minors and was used as a starter by Minnesota for three seasons in the majors before beginning his very lucrative career in the bullpen. Hawkins was probably a little lucky this past season and his strikeout rate isn't anything to write home about. Still, with the rest of the bullpen being as solid as it is, I could see Hawkins closing next season and filling in the rest of the 'pen with Arias, Fulchino and Gervacio.

Jeff Fulchino, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 6-4, 82 IP, 61 games, 3.40 ERA, 71 strikeouts, 27 walks, 7 HR, 1.18 WHIP, 122 ERA+

FIP: 3.52

Leverage: 18 high, 14 medium, 28 low

BABiP: .281

GB/FB: 0.93

Pitching Runs Created: 37

Notes: Thank you Kansas City Royals. The Astros plucked Fulchino off waivers last December and were rewarded with a great season out of the bullpen. In face, Fulchino's season almost makes up for how bad the other Royal imports (Jason Smith, Tyler Lumsden) were. While his strikeout rate doesn't strike fear in the hearts of other teams, Fulchino did avoid giving up home runs for the most part. He also wasn't used in a ton of high leverage situations, so his stats were perfect for middle relief.

Jose Valverde, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 4-2, 25 saves, 54 IP, 52 games, 2.33 ERA, 56 strikeouts, 21 walks, 5 HR, 1.13 WHIP, 178 ERA+

FIP: 3.50

Leverage: 26 high, 13 medium, 10 low

BABiP: .261

GB/FB: 0.66

Pitching Runs Created: 34

Notes: Valverde was exactly what the Astros needed. He brought a swagger to the mound that this team lacked. Injuries robbed him of time this season and the fact that the Astros weren't very good down the stretch held his save total down. You can't ask for much more out of a closer, though, as he managed to strike out one an inning and his home run rate was the lowest since 2005. He has enough concerning factors to his season that I worry about giving him a long term deal. For one, his strikeout rate was the lowest of his career and his BABiP meant his season was more lucky than you'd like. With a couple more hits landing, his numbers could easily have skewed upwards more. Since he's already suffered through an injury-riddled season, what will happen if the Astros give him a 4-to-5 year deal and he's hurt for half of it?

Alberto Arias, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 2-1, 45 2/3 innings, 3.35 ERA, 42 games, 39 strikeouts, 19 walks, 1 HR, 1.49 WHIP, 124 ERA+

FIP: 3.11

Leverage: 12 high, 8 medium, 22 low

BABiP: .340

GB/FB: 1.68

Pitching Runs Created: 18

Notes: When discussing Ed Wade's best moves, Arias has to be among them. While not a home run-type move, Arias was gotten for nothing and has turned into a very effective reliever. Arias had a higher-than-normal BABiP, meaning he was a little unlucky in posting a higher-than-league average ERA. The only thing that's a little concerning about Arias going forward is his strikeout rate is a bit low. Without missing a few more bats, Arias is going to have a hard time giving up just one home run again next season.

Wesley Wright, LHP

2009 Season Stats: 3-4, 44 2/3 IP, 5.44 ERA, 49 games, 47 strikeouts, 25 walks, 9 HR, 1.75 WHIP, 76 ERA+

FIP: 5.14

Leverage: 7 high, 18 medium, 24 low

BABiP: .358

GB/FB: 0.82

Pitching Runs Created: 14

Notes: The word is the Astros would like to make Wright into a starter. With his age (25) and relative lack of innings to this point, it may take an entire season at Triple-A for Wright to make the transition. Having more left-handed starters, though, can't be a bad thing. Wright has been effective and used in semi-big situations. While Cooper didn't have as much confidence in him as Byrdak (judging by leverage situations), Wright did an adequate job and still strikes out a ton of batters. Even if he loses 2 strikeouts per nine innings off his rate by moving into the starting rotation, he'll still be very effective.

Sammy Gervacio, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-1, 21 IP, 2.14 ERA, 29 games, 25 strikeouts, 8 walks, 1 HR, 1.14 WHIP, 194 ERA+

FIP: 2.25

Leverage: 7 high, 7 medium, 15 low

BABiP: .319

GB/FB: 1.24

Pitching Runs Created: 15

Notes: As I mentioned above, Gervacio was one of the few Astros prospects to make the big league without starting a game in the minors. Gervacio was the only Astro with a double-digit K/9 rate, and had a smaller walk rate than in the minors. Still, Gervacio didn't pitch many innings, but showed enough to be a big contributor next season. He was used in a few high leverage situations and didn't embarrass himself. In fact, his usage pattern was somewhat surprising for a rookie. His FIP and BABiP all showed that his performance was not a fluke, though with his innings, the sample size wasn't big enough to draw huge conclusions. I would be happy to use him in the 'pen in 2010, though, instead of a more expensive option (see: Valverde, Jose).

Geoff Geary, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-3, 20 IP, 8.10 ERA, 16 games, 12 strikeouts, 10 walks, 4 HR, 2.00 WHIP, 51 ERA+

FIP: 6.05

Leverage: 6 high, 4 medium, 6 low

BABiP:.382

GB/FB: 0.54

Pitching Runs Created: 3

Notes: Geary is a good example of why teams shouldn't spend a ton of money on non-closers. Relievers are so fungible, it's hard to justify spending the money for a multi-year contract when their performance can vary so greatly. Take Geary; in 2008, he was a good addition to the 'pen and one of the better throw-ins to the Brad Lidge trade. In 2009? Geary finished the season in the minors and was granted free agency. The righty never could get locked in this season, even though he was used about the same in leveraged situations. His BABiP was high, which means he was probably unlucky. I could see Geary having a productive year for someone in 2010, though it probably won't be the Astros.

Doug Brocail, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 1-0, 17 2/3 IP, 4.58 ERA, 20 games, 9 strikeouts, 13 walks, 4 HR, 1.95 WHIP, 91 ERA+

FIP: 7.28

Leverage: 4 high, 2 medium, 12 low

BABiP: .298

GB/FB: 0.94

Pitching Runs Created: 6

Notes: It's safe to say the Doug Brocail experiment didn't work out as the Astros had planned. It's not that Brocail did poorly. In fact, you could argue that he was Houston's most effective reliever in 2008. However, his age may have caught up to him this season, as Brocail only played 20 games before suffering an arm injury (?). What's interesting is looking at what leveraged situations Brocail was used in this season. For someone who was so good a season before, Cooper obviously didn't want to use him in pressure situations in 2009, as he was used in twice as many low pressure situations as anything else.

Chad Paronto, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 6 2/3 IP, 12.15 ERA, 6 games, 3 strikeouts, 1 walk, 4 HR, 2.40 WHIP, 34 ERA+

FIP: 10.50

Leverage: 0 high, 0 medium, 6 low

BABiP: .407

GB/FB: 0.50

Pitching Runs Created: 1

Notes: Paronto has been great for Round Rock the past two seasons, but battled injuries in 2009. He was called up in September and gave up a ton of home runs, but was a tad unlucky. Paronto is exactly the kind of arm the Astros have collected at Triple-A the past few years. He's serviceable but probably only needed in spot duty in the majors, if there is an injury.

Billy Sadler, RHP

2009 Season Stats: 0-0, 1 1/3 IP, 13.50 ERA, 1 game, 2 strikeouts, 1 walk, 0 HR, 2.25 WHIP, 31 ERA+

FIP: 2.40

Leverage: 0 high, 0 medium, 1 low

BABiP: .500

GB/FB: 1.00

Pitching Runs Created: 0

Notes: The only Astros pitcher to not get at least one Pitching Run Created, the story was that Wade promised Sadler he'd be added to the big league team before the end of the season. That's why he got the call-up at the end of September, though Sadler didn't pitch much at all. Fun moments in small sample size: Sadler's FIP was 11 runs lower than his ERA, but only because he struck out two in his 1 1/3 innings. Of course, now Sadler's a free agent and probably won't come back. But we'll always have that 1 1/3 innings.

Roster Breakdown: The Money

davoag — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 21:12:42 -0000

I mentioned there would be a more in-depth look a the Astros 2009 roster today and this is the first part of that attempt. My plan is to look at three different phases of the roster, starting with the monetary worth of all the players, followed by how the position players performed and then how the pitchers did. Hopefully, by knowing what the Astros were last year, it will help predict what they need to do in 2010 to be successful. Onward and upward after the jump...

Helped by the wonderful people over at FanGraphs, I charted the Astros entire roster on both their value in dollar amounts and their actual salaries, which I got from Cot's Baseball Contracts. I added all of them up to get the team's total value for the season and how much money they actually spent. I should also note before we dive into analysis that I adjusted the pitcher's values for their batting, which I'll talk about more in a minute.

The Astros players performed at a value worth 95.2 million this season, while the payroll came in around 106.2 million. This means the team underperformed the payroll by about 11 million dollars. I was a little surprised at this, as I mentioned yesterday in the Dave Clark story, the Astros outperformed their pythag record by six wins. I thought this might translate into value for the club. It did, but not to the extent I expected.

In fact, if we discounted the pitchers' batting, the team would have outperformed payroll by about 7 million, but some of the pitchers, like Oswalt, Wandy and especially Moehler, all were hugely affected by poor batting. Moehler went from one of the few bargains on the team to being one of the biggest detriments. Oswalt also underperformed his contract by about 3.7 million, though he was one of a handful of Astros to contribute double-figure value.

On the plus side, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence combined to produce 33.9 million of the Astros overall 95 million value. Both are playing on pre-arbitration contracts, so were the two biggest values on the team. Wandy was also a huge value, adding 11.8 million over his 2.6 million dollar contract, but lost 3.8 million because of his hitting. That seemed a bit high to me, but as I thought about it more, the only way pitchers can't hurt their team batting-wise is to pitch in the American League, and I'm not sure Wandy would have put up the same value if he had pitched in the tougher league.

Who else were values? Jeff Fulchino came in fourth, with a 3.2 million positive difference, while Mike Hampton was fifth at 2.6 million. It also didn't hurt that Hampy added 0.8 million with his bat. Chris Sampson and Alberto Arias were the next two on the list and the last two that topped 2 million in positive difference between their contracts and their worth. Anther surprise for me was Edwin Maysonet outperforming his contract by one million.

The other side of that coin is the guys who underperform, and the worst at that was Carlos Lee. At -7.9 million, he had the biggest negative difference on the team. The only two players coming close to that were Darin Erstad and Jose Valverde, who both clocked in with negative-5 differences. Doug Brocail and Tim Byrdak were the next two on the bottom, followed by Geoff Geary and Roy Oswalt. The reason so many of these guys are relievers is that their salary greatly exceeded their worth. In fact, the only one who added positive value to the team was Valverde at 3 million. Quick shot analysis of this is that relievers really are fungible, so it's silly to pay more than a million dollars for all but the best closers. Otherwise, you're wasting monetary resources on a position you can fill many different ways.

As for Lee, that contract is an absolute albatross. His hitting is great and all, but his defense hurts the club out in left field and he won't always hit like he's doing now. On the current open market, you can definitely find a bargain that can hit 30 homers and bat .280 for left field without spending 10 million per year, much less the 18.5 Lee earned in 2009.

That's all the analysis I'm going to do now, because I'll get into more detailed looks at player performance later, but I've included the data I used for the entire team for you to peruse below. Look for more posts on the managerial hiring process too as we get more information.

	WAR	Salary	Difference
Bourn	18.700	0.435	18.265
Pence	15.200	0.439	14.761
W. Rodriguez	14.400	2.600	11.800
Fulchino	3.600	0.400	3.200
Hampton	4.600	2.000	2.600
Sampson	2.700	0.449	2.251
Arias	2.500	0.402	2.099
Quintero	2.300	0.610	1.690
Rodriguez	3.100	1.500	1.600
Gervacio	1.900	0.400	1.500
Blum	2.600	1.200	1.400
Keppinger	1.700	0.428	1.273
Maysonet	1.400	0.400	1.000
Norris	0.400	0.400	0.000
Sadler	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Towles	0.000	0.402	-0.402
Manzella	-0.200	0.400	-0.600
Kata	-0.300	0.400	-0.700
Berkman	13.600	14.500	-0.900
Tejada	11.800	13.000	-1.200
Paronto	-1.100	0.500	-1.600
Bazardo	-1.200	0.405	-1.605
Ortiz	-1.100	0.750	-1.850
Michaels	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Boone	-1.200	0.750	-1.950
Lopez	-1.600	0.400	-2.000
Hawkins	1.500	3.500	-2.000
Johnson	-2.000	0.375	-2.375
Moehler	-0.200	2.300	-2.500
Wright	-2.100	0.425	-2.525
Matsui	2.400	5.000	-2.600
Coste	-2.500	0.460	-2.960
Backe	-1.500	1.500	-3.000
Paulino	-2.600	0.405	-3.005
Smith	-2.800	0.500	-3.300
Oswalt	10.300	14.000	-3.700
Geary	-2.000	1.700	-3.700
Byrdak	-3.200	1.000	-4.200
Brocail	-2.200	2.500	-4.700
Valverde	3.000	8.000	-5.000
Erstad	-4.100	1.750	-5.850
Lee	10.600	18.500	-7.900

Miguel Tejada can't do it two nights in a row: Braves 9 - Astros 7

DyingQuail — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 03:37:41 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

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He did it. Yes that's right, Lance Berkman ended an interminable stretch of homerlessness in what was really a really poorly pitched games. I'll just thank the baseball gods for allowing Lance Berkman to drive one out of the park again—finally—because it was negatively impacting me in a facets of baseball life (fantasy included). Even though there was some controversy surrounding the blast, with the wait lifted of his shoulders, maybe the Puma will feel compelled to make up for lost time in the next three weeks; could be fun. It, unfortunately, wasn't enough for the Astros to overcome poor pitching by perennial ace, Roy Oswalt.

Lance helped make it interesting by singling up the middle to start the bottom of the ninth. After Carlos Lee's grinding PA resulting in a free pass from Mike Gonzalez, Miguel Tejada found himself in the drivers seat again. Sadly, his game ending GIDP didn't result in the post game hysterics of last night.

Roy Oswalt struggled. Perhaps the nine runs that the Braves hung on the board didn't give that away. If that's the case, this line should help elucidate it: 2IP, 10H, 6R (6ER), 5K, 1BB. Outside of the aberrantly odd peripherals you can derive, it was clear that something just wasn't right with the Wizard. My gut tells me that it will be many months before I see the comforting image of Roy Oswalt on a mound. As sad as that is, with performances like that—and risks of seeing continual images of grimacing-Roy grabbing his back—there's just no reason to risk 2010 Roy.

Other highlights from tonight:

Chris Johnson collected his first MLB hit in part of a two-run bottom of the eighth. Hopefully the first of many.
Doug Brocail made one of the most ridiculous defensive saves anyone of the age of forty has every made.
There's likely more I should include...but I am not. That's why we have comments.

via www.fangraphs.com

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