SB Nation - Nick Swisher

Rosterbation-Mania!

U-God — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 05:18:10 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Raise your hand if you want to play for the White Sox next year. Esteban, please put your hand down. Seriously though, Esteban, you aren't welcome. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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Over the past couple days, and inspired by the infamous U.S.S. Mariner post and the on-going reader input over at Sox Machine, I've been putting together my off-season plan. I tried to keep it as realistic as possible (no video game trades), especially in terms of payroll. Feel encouraged to leave your own roster plans in the comments section. U-God's 2010 plan lies after the jump.

Free Agent Acquistions:

DH- Nick Johnson, 1 year/5.5 mil

I love Jim Thome and always will. He is my back-up plan. With that being said, I would be thrilled if KW went out and got Nick Johnson. The 31 year old lefty has a career .849 OPS fueled largely by his .402 career OBP. Johnson also allows us to rotate Paul Konerko and Carlos Quentin in at DH as well. He does come with injury-risks, but using him mainly as a DH in combination with one of the premier medical staffs in baseball should counteract that. The injury risk combined with the down market should allow the Sox to grab him at a reasonable price for a year.

RF- Marlon Byrd, 1 year/4.5 mil

Byrd would be a very refreshing change of pace out in rightfield. He has posted an OPS above .800 each year since joining the American League and has been an above-average defender in right as well. His career high 20 homers last year will guarentee him a raise, though probably a modest one. Byrd also provides a nice stop-gap for our outfield prospects.

C- Brian Schneider, 1 year/1.5 mil

Schneider's days as a starter are over. He's a lefty-catcher who has had good success stopping opponent's run games (38 CS%). Being a backup drops his price tag and lowers his risk of getting hurt again.

1B/OF- Mark Kotsay, 1 year/1.5 mil

Bring him back. He was good after we traded for him and gives Ozzie more flexibility with his bench and lineups.

Contract Extension:

Offer John Danks the Jon Lester deal (5 years/30 mil). It's a back-loaded contract that buys out John's arbitration years and allows him to hit free agency at age 31. It may take more money to lock him up, but for simplicity's sake, I'm just going to use the Lester deal.

Batting Order:

DH- Nick Johnson, 3B- Gordon Beckham, LF- Carlos Quentin, 1B- Paul Konerko, C- A.J. Pierzynski, CF- Alex Rios, RF- Marlon Byrd, SS- Alexei Ramirez, 2B- Chris Getz.

That OBP in front of Beckham gives me dirty thoughts.

Bench:

C- Brian Schneider, 1B/OF- Mark Kotsay, UTIL- Jayson Nix, OF- Alejandro De Aza

Nix gives pop off the bench and De Aza gives Ozzie a speedy pinch-runner for late in the game.

Starting Rotation:

Jake Peavy-RHP, Mark Buehrle-LHP, Gavin Floyd-RHP, John Danks-LHP, Freddy Garcia-RHP

I like the idea of having Peavy and Garcia pitch back to back.

Bullpen:

Bobby Jenks-CL, Matt Thornton-LHP, Scott Linebrink-RHP, DJ Carrasco-RHP, Tony Peña-RHP, Jhonny Nuñez-RHP, Randy Williams-LHP

I wanted to trade Jenks, but his value is too low right now and I don't want a repeat of the Nick Swisher trade.

Other Costs:

$1 mil buy-out for Jermaine Dye

$.35 mil for Mike MacDougal, damn him

Team Payroll:

$96.65 mil, only .55 higher than last season's opening salary. All figures (except my FAs and arbitration guesstimates) taken from Cot's Baseball Contracts.

A happy day in the Yankee Universe

Ed Valentine — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 12:47:02 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

The New York Yankees celebrate after beating the Philadelphia Phillies 8-5 in Game 3 of the Major League Baseball World Series Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009, in Philadelphia. The Yankees take a 2-1 lead in the best-of-seven series.

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Life is good as a New York Yankee fan this morning. A 2-1 World Series lead with CC Sabathia heading to the mound tonight -- against Joe Blanton instead of Cliff Lee.

Let's cruise the Inter-Google while we celebrate the Game 3 victory, and see what is being said Around the Yankee Universe.

New York Daily News media critic Bob Raissman was highly critical of FOX for their reporting -- or lack of reporting on the Alex Rodriguez home run that resulted in the first-ever World Series replay reversal. The camera, of course, belonged to FOX -- a fact that was never mentioned. The other question is, of course, why would the network stick a camera in a place where it could interfere with play?
Mike Lupica has plenty of praise for Andy Pettitte this morning, after Pettitte perservered through six difficult inning.

None of it (the comeback) happens if Andy Pettitte doesn't stand in there against the Phillies, like a hitter standing in against the curve. There have been what feel like a hundred October nights when he had more fastball and more stuff than he showed you against the Phillies in Game 3, those three runs in the first two innings, two home runs by Jayson Werth, the second one a monster shot that went off the facing of the upper deck at Citizens Bank Park.

He pitched six innings, gave up five hits, struck out seven, gave up the two home runs. It does not look like a lot. It was. On this night, the night when the Yankees were trying to get ahead and then give the ball to CC Sabathia, Pettitte was as much a champion Yankee as he has ever been. He needed 17 minutes and 24 pitches to get out of the bottom of the first. He threw over to first eight times after Jimmy Rollins singled. He saw Rollins steal second without even drawing a throw from Jorge Posada. It is supposed to be easier stealing from an armored car.

While Pettitte is drawing praise today, Philadelphia starter Cole Hamels is mostly drawing scorn. Including a 'WTF were you thinking?' reaction to that fifth-inning curveball he threw to Pettitte that resulted in a game-tying single. The following is from SI.com's Tom Verducci, and it probably sums up the reaction of Philly fans and knowledgeable baseball people.

If Game 3 is the turning point of the World Series -- 68 percent of teams up 2-1 go on to win it -- then a Yankees championship began with one pitch from Cole Hamels that will be remembered as one of the great gaffes in recent Series history. The beginning of the end for Philadelphia was a first-pitch curveball Hamels threw New York pitcher Andy Pettitte with no understanding of basic baseball. When Pettitte stepped in, Hamels was working with a 3-2 lead, a runner at second base and -- here's the key part -- one out. Pettitte is a career .134 hitter who has come to bat a total of 12 times over the past three years. Hamels could dispose of him with fastballs, the way J.A. Happ would do the next inning, and he would be one out away from being out of the inning. Instead, Hamels threw a first-pitch curveball up, and Pettitte slapped a single to tie the game. Why in the world would he throw something slow -- and up, no less -- to an American League pitcher? "I made the right pitch to Pettitte," Hamels explained. "A pitcher doesn't hit an oh-and-oh curve in a bunting situation." I was incredulous. I had to follow up, and asked him, "Just to clarify, you thought Pettitte was bunting, so you threw a breaking ball up to try to get him to pop up a bunt?"

"Yes," Hamels said. "That's what I get my fair share of the time when I'm bunting. He swung and got a hit. Baseball is very, very difficult to understand sometimes." Hamels emphasized his point by way of explaining he missed location only once, on a fastball to Johnny Damon that became a two-run double that inning. Hamels clearly did not regard the pitch to Pettitte as a mistake. I couldn't believe it. There is no way Pettitte is bunting there. There is virtually no advantage to be gained from moving a runner from second to third and be left with two outs. With no outs, it's an obvious bunt situation. One out? The pitcher swings away, because even if he strikes out, you still have a runner in scoring position with two outs, and on all but rare occasions the runner will be sent home from second on a single. So you have nothing to lose by letting the pitcher swing away. It's Baseball 101.

After a day off, Nick Swisher came up huge for the Yankees Saturday night.

"Skip [Joe Girardi] sat me down the other day and said, 'Hey, just relax. I want you to just watch this game, enjoy this game,' " Swisher said. "And then we talked about some stuff after the game. But I think it really helped me mentally, not necessarily physically because right now you're such on Cloud Nine because you're playing in the World Series and you don't really feel anything.

"But it was nice for my head to just rest and enjoy that game, and especially for us to win, that was great."

After watching him surrender a ninth-inning home run to Carlos Ruiz, Ken Davidoff wonders what the Yankees will do with Phil Hughes the rest of the Series.

You have to wonder what sort of role Hughes, sporting a 10.80 ERA in eight postseason appearances, will play the rest of the way. If Girardi doesn't trust him to get two outs before surrendering three runs, that doesn't speak much for the manager's confidence.

It is a fair question. My guess is that you will see more David Robertson and Joba Chamberlain. SI.com's Jon Heyman got this tidbit about Hughes from a scout. "He looks frightened, he doesn't look the same."

Other Yankee Doodles

Swisher, Melky Cabrera get back at raucous Philly fans.
Steve Serby hs a Q&A with former Yankee hero Paul O'Neill.
MLB Trade Rumors discusses Hideki Matsui's future.

2009 World Series Game Three Recap -- Yankees 8, Phillies 5

WholeCamels — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 04:47:11 -0000

The Phils lose their first post-season game to a lefty over the past two years and go down 2-1 to the Yankees. Three story lines to tonight:

1) Tonight was Cole Hamels' season in a nutshell. He pitched great for three innings yet couldn't get out of the fifth thanks to a combination of bad luck and not being able to put hitters away on two strike counts. Alex Rodriguez's home run, which followed a Mark Texeira walk in which he came back from a 1-2 count (with help from the home plate ump), was the shortest a home run could be at CBP (and needed the aid of instant replay). Nick Swisher's double was just fair. Andy Pettitte's RBI single was a true bloop. Derek Jeter's single could have been caught by Shane Victorino. Only Johnny Damon's double was hit hard. Yet Cole gives up 5 earned in 4.3 innings.

2) The Phillies' offensive lefties were no-shows tonight. On the other hand (literally), the righties were dominant. If the lefties could have put anything on the board tonight, the game would have been much closer.

3) Charlie Manuel's managing when the game was still tight was awful. Pinch-hitting Eric Bruntlett in the sixth with a man on first, down by only 2, and Pettitte over 100 pitches was inexcusable. Ben Francisco was the obvious choice. If not him, any right-handed hitter in the stands would be better than Bruntlett. Then, in the top of the seventh, with Chad Durbin struggling, Manuel had no one warming in the bullpen and was forced to let Durbin close out the inning. Of course, Durbin gave up a run putting the game that much further out of reach. The Bruntlett pinch hit appearance and Durbin full inning were turning points.

Yet, as bad as tonight felt, we're only down 1 game. Joe Blanton faces CC Sabathia Sunday night to even the series. Let's go Phils!

World Series Batting Order Optimizer: New York Yankees

devil_fingers — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:37:07 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - AP

Jeter: I'm hitting WHERE at a baseball game? Girardi: (stares silently at a baseball game) A-Rod: (smugly) We're playing this late in the year at a baseball game WHY? I'm going to have to hook up with a second-rate actress who likes hanging out in a warmer place.

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So there's a big game tonight. CC Sabathia and Cliff Lee are facing off in a matchup destined to stab Cleveland fans in the fork with an eye for ages to come. And it's also a chance for me to write about something that, while I it doesn' t matter all that much -- 5 to 15 runs over a full season, so almost irrelevant in a 7 game series -- I obsess over constantly: batting order.

During the season, I had an occasional series called the Lousy Lineup Optimizer. Obviously, the two teams in the World Series have not-so-lousy lineups, and it was a fun chance to mess around with some batting orders full of great hitters. I'd meant to start yesterday, but these things take a while to put together to account for platoon splits, etc. I'll hopefully post on the Phillies tomorrow. Indeed, I'd wanted to do this for all the playoff teams, but 1) it was going to take too much time -- series would be over before I got all the teams posted; and 2) if there's anything we've learned from reading MGL's posts on the Book Blog, it's that you can't just use current season stats to judge a player's ability -- you need something like a projection. Earlier, I was using the ZiPS Rest of Season stats, but the season is over. My pseudo-Marcels spreadsheet was frustrating me. But then Acta Sports made the 2010 BIll James projections to be published in the 2010 Bill James Handbook (now available for pre-order!) available to SB Nation writers. I figure next season isn't that far off. I'm no posting these as "my" projections, but just using them to get an idea of the relative abiltiies of the players of each team for putting together a batting order.

Again, batting order doesn't matter all that much, but you'd think that teams in the World Series would want to maximize their chances any way they can. It's also interesting because they'll need for put together batting orders both with and without a DH. Let's see what the Yankees should do.

Lineup Optimization by The Book

If you've been following the Lousy Lineup Optimization series, you know what all this nonsense is about, so feel free to skim or skip all the way down the the batting order tables in the "Getting to the Point" section. If you aren't somewhat familiar with The Book's ideas on lineup optimization, it's at least worth skimming this section. The general principles are largely drawn from The Book, which is worth checking out on this and many other topics. Sky Kalkman gives a good, brief rundown in this article. While there is already good stuff out there, I like to do this kind of stuff for myself

Here are a few of the guidelines (with my own twists).

"It's all relative." Although this isn't directly stated in The Book or in any of the summaries I've seen, I think it's worth noting: the appropriate spot in the batting order for any particular player is relative. People talk about having a "true leadoff man" or a "#4 hitter" or that a player has a swing that's just perfect for hitting #2 or whatever. But the truth is, a player's "best" place in a lineup depends on his skills relative to the other players.
Where should the best hitter hit? The best five hitters (by wOBA or equivalent stat (e.g., not OPS) should be in the top five spots. Of those 5, generally, the best hitters will be in the #1, #2, and #4 spots. Ideally, of these three the hitter in the #1 spot will have the best OBP, the #4 hitter will have the most power, and the #2 hitter will be somewhere in between (relative to the #1 and #4 hitters). The best hitter will probably be in the #2 or #4 spot. The fourth and fifth best hitters will be in the #5 and #3 spots, respectively. Yes, you read that right: the #3 hitter's only advantage in run expectancy over #5 is in home runs. Of the top five spots, this is where you want your low-OBP slugger. As we'll see, platoon issues can make getting the best into the ## 1,2 and 4 slots tough, but getting them into the top 5 is pretty close.
The other half: In slots ##6-9, simply go in descending order of hitter quality, keeping in mind:
Platoon issues: Separating lefties takes a certain precedence, since this prevents the opposing team from leveraging LHPs against your lefties, who generally have bigger platoon splits. Moreover, given platoon splits (more on how these are generated in the next section), different batting orders against RHP and LHP are in order (har har). This also means that if your best hitters are lefties, they may not get into the "ideal" spots next to each other.
Can pinch hitting help? Note that in the chapter on platoons, the authors of The Book show that pinch hitting to gain the platoon advantage really doesn't solve this and other problems since the penalty pinch hitters suffer from the difficulty of hitting off of the bench offsets the platoon advantage they might gain.
Speed on the bases: Baserunning and basestealing are important, but are difficult to place, since often (but not always) the same players are good at both. In general, you want good baserunners (aside from stealing -- those good at taking the extra base, scoring from first on a double, etc.) in front of good contact hitters who can "move them over." Basestealers are best leveraged in front of poor hitters who have trouble moving them over. In both cases, if possible, avoid putting these players in front of high-power hitters, since this negates the advantage of those skills. So while your good baserunner might best be utilized at the top of the order (e.g., in front of a #2 hitter with moderate power), your best basestealer will likely be best utilized in further down the order in front of poor hitters -- say, in the #5 or #6 spot.
The Jim Rice Effect. Some spots have a greater odds of facing double play situations. The spot that sees the most DP situations is #3 by far, followed by #2. Therefore, try to avoid having high GDP players in those spots. The spot that sees the least (particularly in the NL) is the leadoff spot. So some times if you have an excellent hitter who also hits into a good number of DPs, even if he is slow, it might be worth it to move him into the leadoff spot.
Movin' on up: The "second leadoff hitter" theory has some validity -- having a #9 hitter who can "set the table" for the top of the order does increase run expectancy, so putting the worst hitter 8th sometimes helps. However, this worst hitter has to be really, really horrible in order for the advantage to obtain. In other words, in National League parks, hitting the pitcher 8th is the smart move according to The Book, although it is worth noting that Tom Tango wrote the chapter on lineups, and Mitchel Litchman (aka "MGL") is more circumspect regarding the value of the pitcher hitting 8th.
Remember that who is in the lineup is much more important that what order it goes in. So relax -- despite my nitpicking over two points of wOBA here and there, it really doesn' t matter that much. But it sure is fun to quibble...

Projected Stats, Sources, and Ground Rules for this Series

Who gets in? Again ultimately, who is in the lineup is more important than what order they go in. Having said that, in this occasional series my focus is opposite issue -- the order. So I'm generally going to accept whatever group of players the manager is throwing out there, whether I think it is the right group or not. I won't always get this right, since lineups change day-to-day depending on how players are feelings, how much acid reflux the manager had the night before, etc.
Where are those numbers coming from?, the basics: As I said above, I'm using the 2010 projections from the 2010 Bill James Handbook for wOBA/AVG/OBP/SLG and SB/CS (prorated for ~150 games). The other numbers are explained elsewhere.
Who is the better hitter? From these stats, I will generate a wOBA (if it isn't done already, such as at FanGraphs) for each player. wOBA (weighted on-base average), for those who don't know, is the total offensive value stat that has taken the baseball internet by storm. Introduced by the authors of The Book and invented by Tom Tango, wOBA takes care of all the problems OPS had in terms of the weighting of OBP and SLG, doubles and home runs. It's roughly on an OBP scale, so something between .330-.340 is about average. For the version used at FanGraphs, .330 was about the MLB nonpitcher average in 2008. You can read more around the 'net, but in short: if one player has a better wOBA than another, he's a more productive hitter, period. wOBA for players can be found at FanGraphs and Stat Corner, for now, and probably more places as time moves on...
What about platoon splits? As The Book also explains (I'm telling you, you really should read it!), while each player has his own platoon split, it takes a lot longer than you would think to establish it -- it takes about 2,000 PAs against LHP for right-handed hitters to be able to say with some degree of confidence what their platoon split is -- so that's means only guys in the league a long time. For left-handed hitters, since there is more variability, it doesn't take as long -- about 1,000 PAs. Still, only veterans really get that far. Until then, most players should be assumed to have the league average platoon split. So, following the procedure used in by the authors for earlier years, I took the average wOBA and OBP splits for the 2005-2008 AL (it was easier to exclude pitchers that way) and applied them to each player. The only stats I will be adjusting this for are wOBA and OBP. BA, SLG, ISO are the generic ones, just to get a sense of the "kind" of hitter a guy is, obviously, those will change, too. but are harder to adjust for generically. In the "vs. RHP" and "vs. LHP" lineups, the wOBA and OBP figures are adjusted for league-average splits, and are thus italicized. [For more on estimating platoon skills, read this.]
What about Stolen Bases? I took the linear weights SB/CS runs projected by ZiPS before the season and prorated for ~600 PAs.
And baserunning? A bit more complicated... In the previous installments, I used Baseball Prospectus' EQBRR stats minus the stolen basees component. But I realized that what we're really looking here is just the runners ability to advance on hits, so starting with the Giants, I'm just using the EqHAR component. I did a primitive Marcels-type projection with them, without age adjustments, but with regression incorporating the Speed Score listed in the CHONE projections. Just to get a feel for the relative abilty of the baserunners, I projected runs values above/below average per 50 advancement opportunities. The listed numbers are projected baserunning runs above/below average per 600 PAs.
How about grounding into double plays? In short, the new Baseball Reference came out with information on GiDPs, opps, league averages and stuff. So I was able to do another pseudo-Marcel. The number listed is the GiDP runs above (avoided) or below (grounded into ) average per 600 PAs, normalized for the average number of opportunities seen over 600 PAs from 2005-2008.

Getting to the Point

Below are the raw, un-platooned stats from the 2010 Bill James projections for the Yankees with some other stuff. This isn't an any particular order. If it was up to me, Brett Gardner would start in center over Melky, but whatever. Remember, these aren't my projections, I'm just using them for convenience. Get mad at Bill James if you think this is unfair to Damon or whatever.

Player	Pos.		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.305	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.359	.309	.347	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.365	.317	.388	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.403	.294	.400	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.347	.278	.355	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.367	.282	.367	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0

So here we go... I'll start would with the "vs. LHP" lineups since the series is starting with the Yankees going against Cliff Lee.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. LHP w/ DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.383	.317	.409	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.395	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.348	.282	.349	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.422	.294	.421	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.340	.309	.330	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.329	.278	.338	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: It's pretty hard to put a bad batting order together with the Yankees. The main problem here was that in my "ideal" order, I had a bunch of lefties back-to-back at the bottom. Swisher really works well in the #3 spot, given his relative expected wOBA, his ability to avoid the DP, and home run frequency. However, then you end up with all lefties stacked up at the bottom of the order. To accomodate all that, I switched Matsui (surprisingly good at avoiding the DP last I updated) into the #3 spot. Most of my adjustments were made with these sorts of considerations -- with a powerful lineup like this, you don't worry to much about leveraging basestealers. Jeter leading off makes sense not only because he's a good hitter and baserunner, but beacause it also puts him in a position to see the fewest DP opportunities. Mark Teixeira hitting #2 might seem strange, but that's just because we're used to seeing sub-par hitters in that spot. He or A-Rod could switch, as A-Rod's baserunning might make sense in front of a contact hitter like Matsui. On the other hand, Teixeira is better at avoiding the DP, and the #2 spot sees them a bit more often. Also, the #4 spot leads off more innings. Damon at the bottom? Talk to Bill James. The Yanks can't use a DH every game, though, so...

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. LHP, no DH
Player	Pos		wOBA	AVG	OBP	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.383	.317	.409	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.395	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.422	.294	.421	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.340	.309	.330	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3
Pitcher	P
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.329	.278	.338	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comment: Very similar to above, with Matsui switched out, and Swisher getting into the #3 spot. This is really a "perfect: sort of lineup (you can put the pitcher #8 or #9 depending on how you feel about that issue) -- the top 5 hitters are in the top five spots, the worst DP guy is a good hitter who can lead off. You have the best three hitters 1,2, and 4, the 4th best hitter #5, and the 5th best #3, and the 5th best has a lot of home run power to maximize his more frequent 2 out opportunities. Tons of power in the middle of this lineup, as ##2-4 all have expected (before platoon!) ISOs over .200.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. RHP, w/ DH
Player	Pos		*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.369	.309	.355	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.397	.294	.393	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Hideki Matsui	DH	L	.377	.282	.376	.475	.193	0.4	-0.3	1.0
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.405	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.359	.317	.381	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.356	.278	.364	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: Now this is a revisionary lineup! I personally find the "boy Derek Jeter is overrated I hate him so much A-Rod is so much better!" thing to be tired, even if certain sitcom writers still think it's clever. I guess my feeling at this point is "Duh." But this is just what the projections, platoon, and batting order principles spit out. Cano is a good hitter vs. RHP who also has GDP problems. I don't worry too much about his hitting with runners in scoring position (even if Steven Goldman seemingly can't stop mentioning it for some strange reason), but if you do worry about that, then hitting him #1 also takes care of that issue. Again, A-Rod and Teixeria could switch. I figured that Teixeira would have more power vs. RHP than A-Rod, so I put it this way, perhaps A-Rod's baserunning will be more useful in front of Matsui. It's a testament to the strength of the lineup that not only is Jeter hitting #7, but even against RHP, I have Damon hitting #8. And it works out, since Jeter and Damon's baserunning abilities are better leveraged in front of guys with less power like Melky and Cano than in front of power hitters like A-Rod, Tex, and Swisher.

Optimized Yankees Batting Order vs. RHP, no DH
Player	Pos		*wOBA*	AVG	*OBP*	SLG	ISO	EqHAR	SBr	GDPr
Robinson Cano	2B	L	.369	.309	.355	.489	.180	0.3	-0.5	-0.8
Alex Rodriguez	3B	R	.397	.294	.393	.550	.256	0.3	0.7	-0.8
Nick Swisher	RF	S	.360	.247	.365	.467	.220	0.4	-0.2	0.3
Mark Teixeira	1B	S	.405	.300	.395	.559	.259	-0.4	0.0	1.0
Jorge Posada	C	S	.366	.276	.372	.467	.191	-2.2	-0.3	-0.7
Derek Jeter	SS	R	.359	.317	.381	.444	.127	0.5	0.8	-1.5
Johnny Damon	LF	L	.356	.278	.364	.430	.152	0.4	0.9	2.1
Pitcher	P
Melky Cabrera	CF	S	.330	.278	.341	.406	.128	0.2	0.3	-0.3

[NB: The italicized columns have been adjusted generically to account for platoon splits.]

Comments: Once again, Matsui's absence allow Swisher's home run power to get into the #3 spot where it belongs. Other than that, not much of a difference here. I should mention than in all four batting orders, I strongly considered putting A-Rod first because the best hitter could be in #1, #2, or #4, he's a good baserunner, and he also has a bit of a GDP issue (although it's not like Jeter's).

So that's it! What are the odds Joe Girardi does something like this? Greater than the odds of Kate Hudson making a movie that isn't a crappy romantic comedy? Greater than the odds of Ken Tremendous not bitching about a bunt? I dunno. I do know that I like talking about this stuff even if (wait for it) ... it doesn't matter all that much. Tell me what I did wrong!

10/28 - Catching Up and Slowing Down

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 09:00:18 -0000

Since I missed the Filter for yesterday (sorry, couldn't see straight because of a pounding headache), here's some of the links that would have worked better yesterday:

5 YEARS AGO TODAY...WE WERE KINGS - Masshole Sports

Amazing to see the immediate reactions again with more hindsight.

2004: Where Are They Now? - Full Count

Excellent link if you want to see how much things can change in five years.

Chat with Jacoby Ellsbury - ESPN Boston

Darn, I would have asked him about his reads. Oh well, maybe someone will catch him next time.

Aroldis Chapman and a bucket of cold water - Yawkey Way Academy

Calm it down, peeps. Even if he is visiting and throwing for us today, doesn't mean we're going after him - especially because we probably shouldn't, based on the information available.

Bloggers Assemble! - The Bottom Line

Any views expressed in there that you'd like to comment about? Interesting to see how different sites form different opinions.

After the jump, an MVP ballot, talking about defense, and more nostalgia (but not about the same subject).

My AL MVP Ballot - The Joy of Sox

Grienke. Not even close. I don't care what other people are voting, Grienke deserves it.

Yankees' combo of Johnny Damon and Nick Swisher has been quiet during playoffs

The Red Sox are going to be looking to upgrade their offense this winter and have apparently decided not to try to re-sign Jason Bay - whose rep, Scott (Avenging Agent) Boras, has had a long, acrimonious history with them, most recently on display during last winter's Mark Teixeira negotiations

FAIL.

Rob Bradford | In Defense of Jason Bay's Defense

"I think the only defensive statistic that I know for sure that is easily measurable is outfield assists and errors committed, and Jason is just the third outfielder in major league history to lead the league in outfield assists while not creating an error all season, the last guy being Carl Yastrzemski," the agent said. "It used to be that those statistics were enough. In baseball we all need a better evaluation of defensive ability but the defensive metrics we have out there are so debatable, and in most cases proprietary, that it is hard to quantify a player’s ability to play defense.

GET A NEW AGENT, JAYBAYBAY. Just because the data isn't 100% perfect doesn't mean we should rely on the traditional statistics that have been proven, both numerically and logically, to be less-than-effective indicators of defensive ability. Aside from all the issues with the scoring of errors, there's a major issue with comparing Bay's assists to most other fielders': he plays in a very short field that also traps runners by causing them to misjudge hits off the Monster. Even if you don't like UZR, there are plenty of statistics that wipe the floor with errors and assists:

Worst Fielders of 2009 - THT

Bay's not on this list (fortunately), but there are a few shocking names; most of them correlate with UZR though, so they may not be too amazing.

Dustin Pedroia's hidden improvement - Yawkey Way Academy

MVP!

Trade Market: Catchers - MLBTradeRumors.com

Talkin' Baseball with Seth Swirsky [Owner of the Buckner Ball] - The Hall of Very Good

Much like the Bartman incident or Gibson hobbling around the bases, that ball going under Buckner’s mitt is one of baseball’s most widely known images and to one man…it is the cornerstone of a rather unique collection.

Trades Of The Decade: Griffey To The Reds - MLBTradeRumors.com

Interesting to see where the pieces drifted off to.

Comments, links, suggestions, etc. You know the drill.

Yanks vs. Phils: The Tale of the Tape.

Rubie Q — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 18:00:42 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Is CC Sabathia enough to shift the tale of the tape toward the Yankees?

Browse more photos »

You're a discerning baseball fan. You're an intelligent baseball fan. You can seamlessly work 'WAR' and 'wOBA' and 'FIP' into a barroom/restroom debate and impress the pants off of whomever you're talking to. You're ready to get your last fix of baseball before the long, cold winter of rampant speculation -- followed, of course, by the spring of irrational exuberance -- but, you're wondering: How do the Yankees and Phillies stack up against each other ... in matters beyond the box score?

You're in the right place, friend. After the jump: Yanks vs. Phils: The Tale of the Tape. (Note: we're required by federal law to note that this breakdown is for entertainment purposes only. However, should you choose to use this information in a friendly, handshake wager with an acquaintance: God help you.)

THE MASCOTS: WHAT'S A YANKEE? WHAT'S A PHILLIE?

YANKEES: Depends where you're living. If you're in the South, it's a person who lived in the Union during the War of Northern Aggression. (Er, Civil War. Sorry.) If you're in Europe, it's all of us across the pond in the States. If you're in Boston, it's an [CENSORED] with a [CENSORED] [CENSORED] who loves to [CENSORED] his [CENSORED] with a [CENSORED] like a typical [CENSORED] [CENSORED] and sometimes invites his [CENSORED] [CENSORED] [CENSORED] to join in, when he's not [CENSORED] [CENSORED] to pictures of Derek Jeter. [CENSORED].

PHILLIES: It's just an abbreviation of "Philadelphia." Lay-zee. I'm glad that trend didn't catch on; I wouldn't want to follow the Milwaukee Walkies. (Or Milwaukee Millies.) Though it would be fun to make fun of the Minnesota Minnies. (Side note to our friends in Minneapolis: send me a note next April from your open-air stadium. Give me an update on Joe Mauer's frostbite. I'm sure the sight of icicles forming on his sideburns will be stunning.)

ADVANTAGE: Yankees.

UNDERRATED PLAYER:

YANKEES: To the extent that any Yankee can be underrated (and, at this point, I feel like I know more about Phil Coke (favorite band: Genesis, but when Peter Gabriel was in the group, not when Phil Collins took over the vocals and they started churning out crap like I Can't Dance) and Phil Hughes (favorite movie: A Walk In The Clouds) than I do about members of my immediate family), I guess it'd be Nick Swisher. Did you know he put together a 3.7 WAR year? (Yes, TheJay, I know you did. I'm talking about the non-cyborg members of BCB.)

PHILLIES: Chase Utley. Yeah, I know, he gets plenty of pub, but I've seen people (cough Jon Heyman cough) voting Ryan Howard ahead of Utley in the MVP voting. This, in a word, is insane. (Don’t believe me? Talk to Jordan. I believe he’s prepared a multi-volume treatise on this topic, in case you’re looking for bedtime reading.) .282/.397/.509 from a second baseman with plus defense? Yes, please. Where do I sign up?

ADVANTAGE: Phils.

NUMBER OF "TRUE YANKEES" ON THE TEAM:

YANKEES: Four. (Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Rivera. That's it. The rest of yous can't hold a candle to Scott Brosius and Chad Curtis.)

PHILLIES: None.

ADVANTAGE: Yanks.

TREASURED TEAM RELIC:

YANKEES: They've got a whole monument park. Pick anything out there behind the left field wall.

PHILLIES: Jamie Moyer.

ADVANTAGE: Phils.

PLAYER WHO MOST RESEMBLES A WWE SUPERSTAR:

YANKEES: This is tough. I'll be honest: I really just wanted to talk about the Phillies on this one. The best I could come up with is CC and the WWE's Mark Henry:

via z.about.com via www.criticalbench.com

PHILLIES: Jayson Werth. I'll bet you a two-liter that he's moonlighting as the WWE's Edge.

via www3.allaroundphilly.com via www.poptower.com

Eerie, ain't it?

(Wait, hold on: I've got another Werth picture for you:

via www.baltimoresun.com

AWESOME. Kinda looks like Matt Damon in The Informant (sans mustache, of course), doesn't it? Jeyson Werth is like Hannibal on The A Team.)

BIG ADVANTAGE: Phils.

POLITICIAN/STATESMAN WHO LOVED THE LADIES:

YANKEES: Former New York Governor Eliot Spitzer.

PHILLIES: Founding Father Benjamin Franklin (though rumors of his demise due to syphilis are, reportedly, greatly exaggerated).

ADVANTAGE: Phils.

And, most importantly:

BREWERS CONNECTION:

YANKEES: Besides CC, there's Melky Cabrera. He was almost a Brewer this season, although (legend has it) we would have had to take on the bloated corpse of Kei Igawa to complete the deal. (And, speaking of Igawa, here's a question I've been mulling for the past 12 seconds: if the Brewers had traded for Igawa, they probably wouldn't have signed Braden Looper, and we would've been spared the historically awful season Looper put together. [Cue Mykenk.] HOW-EVAH, Igawa only went 10-8 with a 4.15 ERA in AAA this year, and made $4 million, plus the $8 million he's owed for 2010 and 2011 Which option is preferable -- or, to be more accurate, slightly less painful?

PHILLIES: With World Series hero Geoff Jenkins put out to stud, the best I can come up with is former Brewer Matt Stairs. That's still pretty good, I think. I love Matt Stairs. Tell me you wouldn't drink Labatt Blue with Matt Stairs. He'd drink you under the table, for sure, and you might wake up listening to Bryan Adams and watching "The Stanley Cup: 100 Years of Glory," but still: I'd party with Matt Stairs. If nothing else, maybe you could get enough Labatt in him that he'd say this again.

(Oh, wait. There is another connection: Davey Lopes. Ugh. Now I have to think about the Davey Lopes Era again. That was a fun time, wasn't it? That reminds me: remember, towards the end of the season, when Macha had that quote about his door always being open, and that the players could come talk to him whenever they wanted to -- with the strong implication being that the players weren't coming to talk to him, and that Macha wasn't going out of his way to talk to them, either? You know who else was famous for not talking to his players? Davey Lopes. Ugh, again.)

ADVANTAGE: Push (though I don't think it's out of the question to root for CC in this series).

So, there you have it. Final breakdown: Yankees 2, Phillies 4 (with one tie), and it's not even that close. Go Phillies!

Angels Yankees ALCS Game 6 Lineups Remain the Same?

Rev Halofan — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 09:04:36 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

17 days ago: Los Angeles Angels' Joe Saunders, scheduled starter for Game 6 of the American League Championship baseball series against the New York Yankees, walks back to the dugout after the game was postponed because of rain Saturday, Oct. 24, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

Browse more photos »

These lineups for the Angels and Yankees were posted before Saturday's postponement and there is no reason to think they will change for Sunday... What do you think of them? There was talk that Figgins would be demoted to batting 9th, but lo and behold, he remains atop the lineup and the hot bat of Banjo Mathis stays in the mix as well.

Angels
Chone Figgins, 3B
Bobby Abreu, RF
Torii Hunter, CF
Vladimir Guerrero, DH
Kendry Morales, 1B
Howie Kendrick, 2B
Juan Rivera, LF
Jeff Mathis, C
Erick Aybar, SS

Yankees
Derek Jeter, SS
Johnny Damon, LF
Mark Teixeira, 1B
Alex Rodriguez, 3B
Jorge Posada, C
Hideki Matsui, DH
Robinson Cano, 2B
Nick Swisher, RF
Melky Cabrera, CF

Joe Saunders (LHP) @ Andy Pettitte (LHP)

What do you think of these batting orders?

New York Yankees notes: Nick Swisher, Phil Hughes and more

Ed Valentine — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 13:59:28 -0000

More photos » by Chris Carlson - AP

New York Yankees' Nick Swisher reacts after flying out to end the ninth inning of Game 5 of the American League Championship baseball series against the Los Angeles Angels Thursday, Oct. 22, 2009, in Anaheim, Calif. The Angels won 7-6.

Browse more photos »

Here are a few stories around the Yankee Universe for you to ponder while waiting to see if there will be baseball tonight at Yankee Stadium.

For my part, I sure hope so. I want the Yankees to finish off the Angels tonight, so I don't have to flip between the Yankees-Angels and the NFL game between my Giants and the Arizona Cardinals Sunday night.

What to do about Nick Swisher?

So, what should the Yankees do about the slumping Nick Swisher? If he could have gotten a 9th-inning hit Thursday the Yankees would likely already be in the World Series. Swisher is now just 3-for-29 (.103) in the post-season.

Steve Politi says Swisher has to sit.

How many more at-bats can manager Joe Girardi possibly give this guy to turn it around?

Girardi has shown faith in his right fielder, rewarding his 29-home run, 82-RBI regular season. He has been a popular figure in the loosey-goosey clubhouse, one of the reasons the Yankees went from button-down to pie-in-the-face during this 103-win season.

"Guys are going to struggle during the course of the season and you just don’t give up on a guy if he is struggling because the flip side of that is they are due to get hot," Girardi said before Game 5. "We feel good about Swish."

But everything has his limits, and now the manager should play somebody else — anybody else — to try a different look. Put in Brett Gardner. He might not be an upgrade, but could he possibly be worse?

Because it is just not happening for Swisher.

Girardi has indicated he might just do that. Or, he might change the batting order. Or, he might do nothing.

"We'll sleep on it, and we'll make a decision what we're going to do," Girardi said Friday. "But Swisher is a good player and Swisher has done a lot of good things for us this year. And you look at the matchup against [Angels Game 6 starter Joe] Saunders -- he's had some hits off of Saunders.

"It's not just one guy necessarily that you think about," Girardi said. "You think about where you might put the parts. Do you flip-flop guys? I don't ever really rush into decisions, because the one thing about the playoffs is you usually have a lot of time to think about it."

My take: I don't necessarily agree with it, but I think you are going to see Swisher in the lineup against Angels' left-hander Joe Saunders. If Swisher sits, my guess is it will be Jerry Hairston in the lineup rather than Brett Gardner, simply because he hits right-handed.

Are you worried about the bridge to Mo?

Phil Hughes (nine hits in 4 2/3 innings, and a 5.79 ERA) and Joba Chamberlain (seven hits in 2 2/3 innings)have not been the lights out bridge to Mariano Rivera the Yanks hoped for this post-season.

Pitching coach Dave Eiland said the Yankees will go with what got them to this point.

"You trust it, and you go with what got you here," Eiland said. "Don't change now. We've won, what, 109 games including the postseason? We are not going to change anything."

Other Stuff

2004? Columnist reminds that Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia are not Jon Lieber and Kevin Brown.
Cracks Emerge in Concrete Ramps at New Yankee Stadium
Rivera locks down Sporting News honors
Pedro Martinez hoping for another shot at Yankees.

What's the word I'm looking for...oh yeah, STOMACH PUNCH. Yanks lose 7-6.

CrazyYankeeChick — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 04:12:56 -0000

I guess it makes sense...

7-6.

#65 gets the win.

#65 gets the loss.

In game 5.

Thanks to a 4 run 1st.

From #34.

And a 3-hit game.

From #41.

And a final out from #33.

On the 22nd.

See ya in the Bronx, kids.

Do the gory details need to be relived?

I can't decide whether I'm relieved or aggravated that I didn't decide to take tomorrow off.

Is this what the Twins felt like?? Good God. I have a newfound respect for every team that's suffered a Yankee comeback/walkoff.

This isn't exactly our wheelhouse. The Yankees make a comeback, they're making a comeback to win the game. They don't mess around. (With a few exceptions, some of which are still fresh in my mind.)

I headed up to my standard game-watching haunt, with the Yankees already in a 4-0 hole in the 1st.

When I arrived at the bar, the score hadn't changed. My sister met me outside.

"It was like the police coming to a high school party where someone drank themself unconscious."
"What the HELL are you talking about?"

"When you said you were on your way here. I told everyone, 'she's coming, she's gonna be here in minutes.' And they just got ashen. So it was like, what's worse: the fact someone's in critical condition, like the Yankees? Or the fact the scary/aggressive/OCD/unpredictable time-bomb of a cop is on his way. And you don't know if he's in a good mood and is just gonna be like, 'eh, kids'll be kids. I'll give 'em a warning or something. OR, if you're gonna get the psycho-crazed lit fuse of a cop."

And if I needed it further spelled out for me, she added: "People think you're nuts."

"Yeah, no, I got it. Thanks."

(I'm just gonna copy and paste that direct quote next time my mom asks me why I'm single.)

And that's how my night went. Unfortunately for all game-viewers within striking distance of me, they weren't just getting "Bad AJ," but they were also getting "Bad CYC."

To be fair, A.J. Burnett didn't let up much else after those 4 runs in the first. He got his requisite One Bad Inning out of the way in the first. So, don't put this all on AJ. The Yankees rallied from this deficit, as the Yankees are wont to do.

Girardi's managerial decisions will be the spotlighted subplot of this loss. And for once, I'm not jumping on this congo line of Joe-Hate.

Should he have pulled AJ earlier? Maybe. But how could he have known that? AJ had thrown 89 pitches at the time. He had been dealing for 5 innings. Girardi has him start the bottom of the 7th, and all of a sudden we got the Grady Little comparisons pouring out like a dirty-stayout's vomit on prom night.

(Maybe I wouldn't have opted for Damaso Marte as his replacement, per se. But that's beside the point.)

Phil Hughes comes in after Marte, and can anyone question this move? Phil Hughes was our gas-man. He spent the season striking out the side. How could Joe have known this decision was going to be our hamatia?

We're throwing Joe under the bus for games 3 and 5, but I think Thing 1 and Thing 2 have knocked off the damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don't stigma that's been clinging to A-Rod like a piece of heavily charged cellpohane, and transferred it directly to Girardi.

In game 3, he yanked David Robertson with 2 outs and no one on in favor of Alfredo Aceves, and I don't think even the biggest Girardi apologist can justify this move. And I suspect the rampant backlash he received after that game may have engendered the decision to push AJ for another couple of batters before pulling him.

I certainly haven't been the guy's biggest advocate this year, but at this point, I'm ready to say, We're the farthest we've been since 2003. We're considered the team to beat, the best in the league. You don't do that in spite of your manager.

No, I think this game was just lost, pure and simple. The line scores for each club are nearly identical across the boards, among pitchers and batters. There were missed opportunities to score, shaky outings from the starters, blown holds by the pen, and--of course--the sprinkling of unassailably shoddy officiating.

Tim Donaghy must feel like Jose Canseco right now.

The Yankees managed to come back from 4-0 and take a 6-4 lead, but the Angels matched our 6-run 7th, with their own 3-run bottom half. Nick Swisher, with bases loaded and 2 outs, popped up to end the game, and he is now the only person on the Yankees who hasn't made a meaningful contribution in the postseason. All he had to do was get on base, and the game's tied. Talk about a stomach punch.

Speaking of things that make me sick, John Lackey, prior to all this, had an outburst that I think may give me nightmares in weeks to come. When The Most Brilliant Manager Ever in the History of Life trotted to the mound for a little chat with his starter, Lackey has a veritable shit fit and clearly barks, "This one's mine."

And 6 hours later, I'm still trying to shake the image of his psychotic expression out from my mind.

Back to the Bronx on Saturday, which gives the sports world almost 2 days to get in some solid practice hours for the "How Many References to 2004 Can We Shoehorn Into the ALCS Coverage?" Tournament.

I'm not worried. They're the Yankees. They'll make it.

Hey, Bud! It's Time For Replay Review: NLCS Game 5 Preview, Dodgers vs. Phillies, Wednesday 10/21, 7:07 CT

Al — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 18:09:34 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Photographic evidence of The Worst Call of All Time.

Browse more photos »

Fortunately, they had nothing to do with the outcome of ALCS game four, which the Yankees won 10-1. But there were three horrendous umpiring calls in consecutive innings in last night's game -- and two of them were made by Tim McClelland, who has a reputation as one of the best in baseball. The one that everyone's talking about has been termed by Kevin Kaduk ("Duk") of Yahoo sports as "The Worst Call of All Time".

I don't think I'd go that far, because as noted above, even all three calls put together had negligible impact on the game. Had 2B umpire Dale Scott made the right call when Erick Aybar had Nick Swisher picked off second base in the fourth, that inning would have been over -- but McClelland made the wrong call in saying that Swisher, later in the inning, left third base too early and thus was out instead of scoring. No harm done, right? Well, maybe. If Swisher is called out at second, the inning would have been over, and Scott Kazmir wouldn't have had to pitch to two extra hitters in that inning.

But McClelland's call in the fifth -- how can you miss that when it's right in front of you? Angels catcher Mike Napoli tagged two runners, neither of whom was standing on third base at the time. They were both out. True, again, no "harm" was done, because the Yankees failed to score after that. But Darren Oliver, as Kazmir had to do in the previous inning, had to throw to another hitter. Who knows what the pitch sequences would have been, or whether Kazmir might have been able to settle down when it was only 3-0? After the game, McClelland said:

As far as the two calls that I had at third base. The first one with Swisher leaving too soon. In my heart I thought he left too soon.

On the play with Cano and Posada, I thought Cano was on the base. I was waiting for two players to be on the base, and when there was never the situation where both of them were on the base at the same time. When he tagged Cano, I thought Cano was on the base, and when Jorge touched the base and continued and tagged Posada out, I thought Posada was out.

In his heart??? You're not supposed to make calls with your heart, Tim. You're supposed to watch the game with your eyes. And you "thought" Cano was on the base? How about checking with your eyes?

I'm being deliberately too tough on McClelland here -- he is, as I wrote above, generally respected as one of the best in the game. The real villain here is Bud Selig, because he refuses to admit that replay review of plays like this is necessary in modern baseball. Under a system that's been proposed by others and that I agree with, you could give each manager two "red flags" that he could throw for replay review. Last night, two plays went against the Angels and one against the Yankees -- you could have gotten those right under that system and everyone would be happy, I presume, that the right calls were made instead of having another postgame apology news conference from an umpire.

It's way past time, Bud. You already have review for home runs, and it's working well. Time to have review for other calls. The umpiring in the postseason has been atrociously bad. Let's fix it.

Dodgers at Phillies, 7:07 pm CDT. Phillies lead series 3-1. TV: TBS. Announcers: Chip Caray, Buck Martinez and Ron Darling.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Dodgers site True Blue LA and Phillies site The Good Phight.

Discuss amongst yourselves.