SB Nation - Geoff Blum

Astros show interest in Kelly Johnson, Gustavo Chacin and Jason Michaels sign on the dotted line

HighLeveragePerformer — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 12:00:29 -0000

How does "Kelly Johnson, Houston Astro" sound?

After second baseman Kelly Johnson was non-tendered by the Atlanta Braves, a number of teams have expressed interest in him. That link notes that the D-Backs are on record that their hat has been thrown in the KJ ring, but Tim Dierkes said Monday on his site that three NL Central clubs: the Pirates, Cardinals and Astros desire his services to various extents.

Johnson's non-tendering came as a surprise to many, including clack, and his bat would be welcome in Houston, assuming he returns to his normal self after a down 2009. Take Bill James' optimistic projection and the fan's projections off FanGraphs, and you can get a pretty good idea of what is expected out of the middle infielder in 2010.

This wouldn't be an offseason-defining signing by Ed Wade, but if the Astros could get Johnson, the team would be much improved. The Diamondacks are in a position where they would trade another one of their backup infielders in order to create space for Johnson. Neither the Cards or Buccos have the greatest infields in the world, and while Pittsburgh signed Bobby Crosby to bolster theirs, it's not as if Kelly Johnson wouldn't be able to get significant playing time in Pittsburgh. St. Louis may not get Troy Glaus back, which leaves them with Skip Schumaker, David Freese, and Joe Thurston at 2B/3B entering spring training. Not exactly household names.

Pedro Feliz is an upgrade for Houston over Geoff Blum, but it's no guarantee that Feliz will be even a win better than Blummers. Kaz Matsui is injury-prone at second, is coming off a disappointing season and his backup, Edwin Maysonet, does not project to be anything special. Cost is something to focus on, as KJ made $2.8 million in 2009 and should demand a contract worth more than that in 2010. A deal in the mid-3 millions for one season maybe a gamble worth taking, especially if Wade cannot sign a starting pitcher or convert Jason Bourgeois to a second baseman as some have hypothesized.

Just when we thought we were getting rid of him...he pulls us back in. Or rather, we pull him back in. That's right: Jason Michaels has been re-signed to an $800,000 contract. Again, not a disaster, but the money could have been better allocated elsewhere. I would still like to see the team make a move for Ryan Church, if their budget allows for it. Bottom line, as with most of the Astros' moves, this won't be the difference between a postseason berth and another Astro-less October. Michaels wasn't near as bad as I thought he was in 2009, but I would have liked to have seen Wade think a little more out of the box. Reggie Abercrombie, and the aforementioned Bourgeois and Church could be in the running for the fifth and assumedly final outfield reserve spot.

Alyson Footer also tweets that Gustavo Chacin has been signed to a minor league deal and given an invite to Spring Training. Chacin hasn't pitched in the majors since 2007 and hasn't pitched a full season since 2005, so let's not hold our breath on anything happening for him with the Astros. His experience working with pitching coach Brad Arnsberg in Toronto most likely has a lot to do with his being given a shot. Think of him as Russ Ortiz with perhaps a bit more upside.

Busy final day sees Astros sign Pedro Feliz

davoag — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 18:35:07 -0000

Wow, who would have thought Ed Wade could be this busy at the Winter Meetings? One trade, two free agent signings, a host of minor league invites. It's a cornucopia of transactions.

The latest is the first one I can totally get behind. The Astros signed Pedro Feliz to a one-year deal for 4 million. Reasonable price for a good player to fill the hole at third base. Let's all just pretend Ed wasn't serious when he said the Astros could go into the season with Geoff Blum at the hot corner.

What do the Astros get with Feliz? A little power at the corner along with an underrated defensive player. The Phillies had been pushing Feliz as a possible Gold Glover the past few years. Sure, that push didn't gain much traction, but with Feliz and Manzella on the right side of the infield, the Astros defensive range will be greatly improved.

Yes, that defense has deteriorated with his age and yes, he doesn't get on base. But, Feliz is a much better player at this point than Blum and can provide a good stopgap until the club feels Chris Johnson is ready to go.

What else does this team need to do? With Lindstrom making about 2 million (probably closer to 1.5m), Lyon making 5m and Feliz at 4m, the Astros should have about 4 million to kick around now. Wade still needs to find a decent fourth outfielder. Is there anyone out there worth that kind of money? I'm just glad we got at least one glaring hole filled this week.

Astros (Sometimes Tangentially)-Related Link Fest

davoag — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 19:59:08 -0000

More photos » by Tony Dejak - AP

This is exactly what the Astros need in 2010...a brawler!

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Lots and lots of links over the weekend. Maybe it's because Thanksgiving marks the unofficial beginning of the baseball offseason. Maybe it's because writers finally decompressed from the World Series ending. Whatever the reason, here's a jumbo-sized post full of link-y goodness:

Here's an interesting article about the impact long-term contracts to early-year players has on the free agent pool. The Astros haven't done this in a while, but if Jason Castro develops in his first two seasons, it'll be interesting to see if they sign him to a four- or five-year deal.
The first and second in a series on non-tender candidates. We've discussed Garrett Atkins a little bit on here but Kelly Shoppach hasn't gotten much publicity. Given his line over the past three seasons and the fact that he's moving to the National League, Shoppach could have some value for a team like the Astros. At the very least, he could replace a guy like Quintero, who's never hit nearly as well. Thoughts?
Richard Justice steals one of our ideas, asking for input on what to do with the Astros budget. Later, Brian McTaggart does the same exact thing here. Is this a sign of lazy writing, a slow winter or stealing the great ideas of the gifted writers here at TCB. I'll let you decide...
McTaggart also trotted out a mailbag for astros.com, answering reader questions about the state of the team. Unfortunately, there wasn't any new information to be gleaned. Yes, the Astros are on a budget. No, they are not going after big-name pitchers. Yes, they will explore the trade market, but no, they probably won't get any deals done. Most vexing is McTaggart saying that the Astros are content with Geoff Blum manning third in a platoon. Mind you, this platoon will also mean Blum gets the majority of the plate appearances, since there are more right-handed pitchers than leftys. Ed Wade is okay with this?
McTaggart is good at his job, but it also goes to show you what an advantage media types at known media outlets have, in that he can talk to Wade pretty much every day. I talk to him too, but he may or may not be a fictional version of himself in those conversations.
Joe Posnanski takes on the same question I hinted at the other day: Is Albert Pujols a Hall of Famer already? How many other current players 29 or under are also HOF-bound? Any Astros potentially on that list?
For those of you (i.e. me) who suggested the Astros look at Derek Lowe, here's a cautionary article about his underlying stats. Now, I'd argue that pitching in MMP would give Lowe the added benefit of giving up towering shots to center field that are swallowed up by Michael Bourn, but I don't feel nearly as good as I did before I read that.
Maybe the Astros will have some money to spend in 2011. Maybe that's why Drayton is saving up this winter. (Slightly disturbing to see Berkman's name here right after that candid interview he did recently...I don't know what I'd do without Puma on the team.)
Don't believe everything you read during the Hot Stove Months. The only difference between bloggers and mainstream journalists is that the mainstreamers don't just make up stuff, right? Is that how we got reports about the Rangers shopping for a third baseman? Oh, right, it's because no one tries to check facts any more, preferring to break news instead. Glad we cleared that up.
There are a LOT of Dogers headed for big arbitration raises soon. If Berkman does decide to leave in 2011, could the Astros make a play for hometown guy James Loney? Does that make sense? Would it be cheaper in the long-run?
Finally, a little snippet from John Sickels on former Houston high schooler Randall Grichuk (down at the bottom). He was rumored to be headed to the Astros before the draft, but was nabbed by the Angels instead. Always nice to see local kids making their way to the majors.

Plan? Schman: What is the Astros front office thinking?

DyingQuail — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 17:02:20 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Just give us a sign, Ed.

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I just got finished reading this piece by Brian McTaggart. I read it; I read it again, and then I thought, "Sonofabitch." Why? Because I can't discern a single line of thought from McTaggart's interview that would indicate there's any kind of plan for the Astros. I don't need a blueprint, but at least some sort of trajectory, and if not a trajectory, at least an indication that our front office is in fact in touch with reality.

Why the fuss? Here are the selections:

The first task for the Astros is re-signing their own free agents, a list that includes impact players in shortstop Miguel Tejada, closer Jose Valverde and reliever LaTroy Hawkins. Houston likely doesn't have enough payroll flexibility to retain all three, and Tejada's future with the club would be at third base instead of shortstop.

Ok. So Wade is allegedly gunning for two of the three. My guess would a pairing of Tejada, plus a reliever and that spending would pretty much close off payroll for the 2010 season. $7.5 million in 2010 for Tejada is what I'm guessing we'll offer and I imagine that Hawkins will look for at least a $5 million deal coming off the season he just had (if you don't prod the raw numbers, he looks stellar).

So our main objective for 2010 is to bring back a SS to play 3B at age 35 or 34 (honestly, I'll never get Miggy's age right). And then sign a closer-esque reliever. After that, the goal, ostensibly, will be to plug the roster with in house pieces for the league minimum and hope that of Bud Norris, Feliepe Paulino, Yorman Bazardo, and Wesley Wright at least two can perform at or around league average for the course of the season.

But wait, we apparently also have a void our outfield. This one was news to me. Of our current corps of minor leaguers, I think the only "stenghth" we might have is in the outfield. Am I wrong?

Nevertheless, Ed Wade had this to say about our "situation" in the outfield:

"From the standpoint of position players with both Jason Michaels and Darin Erstad being free agents, our extra-outfield situation at this point is an issue," Wade said. "I'm not saying we wouldn't bring both guys back, but both are free agents, and we have to recognize we have a void now."

Really? A point at issue? The services of two veteran bench warmers who happened to play outfield at some point in their career is really worth a likely $2-3 million in their two contracts? Yordanny Ramirez, Reggie Abercrombie, Brian Bogusevic (just to name our AAA OFers, but not to slight the Gaston's and Locke's of the world) couldn't slot in their spots for less than $1 million? Interesting.

So from that point, I can't tell if Wade is conceding that he can only spend enough to sign one of the Valverde/Hakwins/Tejada trio because if he signs two of the three he can't afford to round out the bench, or not. But in all honesty, that has me worried.

Next up, something that's be eating at me for awhile, but Wade's quote brings it to the surface:

"If we can mix and match with Geoff over there and provide more offense, that's something we have to pay attention to," Wade said.

I get that Blum is allegedly an über-utility IF. But if Wade is really gunning for Tejada, why did he re-sign Geoff Blum so early? A piece like Blum seems best signed in January or February when someone like Blum hears things like "league-minimum" and "major league job" and jumps at the opportunity to sign after sweating it out all offseason.

There's also discussion of Wade looking to trade for a SP, but who does he trade? For whom? And why?

And it's at the point in the article that I started over, re-read and realized that Wade is literally just slapping duct-tape on this team and hoping it all holds. But with what purpose? I don't know. If Drayton's taking a hard line on the payroll because he doesn't want to lose money this year, why not just hold everyone we have in place? Offer arbitration to our FAs, and then whoever rejects it, take the picks and fill the slots with in house players at league minimum? If everyone rejects arbitration, we have a payroll of $80 million on opening day and we get finally see what are farm system actually has in it, and that seems more entertaining than the Ed Wade duct-tape ball that's being rolled right now. Hell, just throw some money at Hawkins and have someone we trust to close baseball games and still save Drayton a sizable chunk of change to invest in the 2010 draft.

Wade doesn't seem to be trying to make the roster better, he seems like he's trying to plug leaks on a sinking ship—but will still end up taking on water. And I have myself back to, what is the Astros objective for 2010 and beyond? Does anybody see it?

None of this is to say that I don't think the Astros can compete as assembled, or attempted to be assembled, in 2010, but my concern is that is there are plans for 2011, 2012, and beyond? Or is it going to just be duct-tape and prayers for the foreseeable future?

Free Agent Profile: Miguel Tejada

davoag — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 13:00:13 -0000

by Alex Brandon - AP

The market for Tejada will be tough to ascertain.

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Lots to talk about since the last time we looked at the free agency market. In this profile of what kind of deal Miguel Tejada may get, I thought it prudent to look at two important facts. First, how much will the Astros have available to spend?

If, as Wade said, the Astros will reduce payroll in 2010, that means their number will be lower than the 102 million they spent on Opening Day 2009. How much less is up for debate. After arbitration raises to Hunter Pence, Wandy Rodriguez and others, the Astros will have about 80 million committed already in 2010. Assuming the Astros lop 12 million off last year's number, that leaves them with 10 million to spend. Seems about right, doesn't it?

It's still what we've been projecting as their available room since the offseason began, before Wade confirmed it was the case. We'll get to my theory on how much Tejada will cost, but that's not a lot of money to spend to fill a couple of glaring holes.

The second thing to look at is the current market for third baseman. It may not be a foregone conclusion that Tejada will have to switch positions, his bat seems to fit more in line with the corner of the infield market. Of that list, Tejada is probably not going to get the richest deal and possibly not the third-richest deal. I still think he commands a good chunk of change, though. The question is, does it make more sense for the Astros to spend on Tejada or a guy like Pedro Feliz? Just some things to think about when looking at last winter...

The Shortstops

Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 30 million (09-6.5m, 10-8.5m, 11-12m, 12-12m option)

Notes: Furcal entered last year's market after totaling just 164 plate appearances. Still, the then-31-year old posted a wOBA of .440 and a UZR/150 of -15.2. The Dodgers still rewarded Furcal with the richest contract any shortstop earned last winter. Furcal's defense has been all over the boards the past couple of years, but I think it's safe to say conventional wisdom shows he's was better defensively heading into last offseason than Tejada is now. Consider this contract the upper boundary of what Tejada can expect.

Nick Punto, Minnesota Twins

Contract Details: 2 years, 8.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.25m, 11-5m option)

Notes: The 30-year old got this contract coming off a season where he played 99 games. Punto hit pretty decently when he did play, posting a wOBA of .324 and had a UZR/150 of 17.9. Punto is a much better fielder than Tejada, but can't hit nearly as well. He's also younger, but couldn't get more than a two-year deal in last year's market.

Orlando Cabrera, Oakland A's

Contract Details: 1 year, 4 million

Notes: Cabrera couldn't have illustrated the plight of Type A free agents any better. With no team willing to give up draft picks for a 34-year old shortstop coming off a season where he posted a wOBA of .316 with excellent defense (by all accounts). Obviously, Cabrera falls into the same situation as Punto. Both players were good defense, bad bat types, which makes them the exact opposite of Tejada. Still, it may be hard for Tejada to get more than a one-year deal this winter.

Cesar Izturis, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 5 million (09-2.4m, 10-2.6m)

Notes: Another good defensive shortstop that posted a sub-par wOBA heading into his free agency period. Izturis got a multi-year deal and performed admirably for Baltimore. His contract is lower than the deals that Punto and Cabrera ended up with, but not for a lack of offense. In fact, the only difference tangibly between these three players is that the other two had a better defensive reputation and Izturis had a down year offensively with the Cardinals in 2008. Of course, I say 'reputation' about defense since there is not much difference in the three's defensive stats.

Edgar Renteria, San Francisco Giants

Contract Details: 2 years, 18.5 million (09-7m, 10-9.5m, 11-10.5m option)

Notes: While Renteria's defense wasn't as bad as Tejada's, at least by UZR, Renteria also didn't post as good a wOBA as Tejada's. It fits that Renteria would be the best shortstop comparable for Tejada, though by all accounts, his defense is good enough to stay at short for a little while longer. This deal, though, feels like something Tejada could end up with this winter.

The Third Basemen

Casey Blake, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 3 years, 17.5 million (09-5m, 10-6m, 11-5.25m, 12-6m option)

Notes: Now we move into the third basemen that hit the market last winter. Blake had a great run with the Dodgers after being traded to Los Angeles and was locked up to a reasonable deal. Blake more than outperformed his contract in 2009, but his deal was the richest given to a potential third base free agent last winter. If Tejada moves to the hot corner, look for his deal to be in this range.

Ty Wigginton, Baltimore Orioles

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.5m, 10-3.5m)

Notes: Ahh, the dearly departed Astro, Wigginton signed with Baltimore for two years at a very reasonable 6 million. Wigginton probably was over-extended as a third baseman and only played 39 games there in 2009. Wigginton was close to as valuable offensively as Tejada but wasn't good defensively at third. Tejada's advantage over this deal is that he's moving from a premium defensive position to third, instead of moving off third like Wigginton.

The Utility Players

Ramon Vasquez, Pittsburgh Pirates

Contract Details: 2 years, 4 million (09-1.75m, 10-2m)

Notes: There is a lot of Wigginton here too, as Vasquez wasn't as good offensively as Tejada nor was he as good defensively (comparatively, that is). Still, Vasquez landed a role with the Pirates and a reasonable contract. This reminds me too much of a Geoff Blum signing instead of what Tejada will fetch.

Mark Loretta, Los Angeles Dodgers

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million

Notes: At this point in his career, Loretta was going to be nothing more than a valuable addition off the bench. His contract reflects this and though he could still play third base in a pinch (Loretta played 23 games in 2009), but this is more like the contract Tejada may get in two years.

The Outlier

Willie Bloomquist, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 3.1 million (09-1.4m, 10-1.7m)

Notes: Remember when we were talking about Jose Valverde? And we saw all the crazy stuff that Dayton Moore has done? Fit the Bloomquist signing into that vein. The utility player with the Mariners was given a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract and played mostly in the outfield for the Royals. This was just a weird signing all around.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Edwin Encarnacion, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Contract Details: 2 years, 7.6 million (09-2m, 10-4.7m)

Notes: This starts a couple of third basemen who recently signed contracts, before they get to free agency. With Encarnacion, the Reds were simply buying out a couple of arbitration years, but the numbers fit into the overall picture of what Tejada could command. Interestingly enough, the Reds traded Encarnacion to the Blue Jays mid-season for Scott Rolen.

Chipper Jones, 3B, Atlanta Braves

Contract Details: 3 years, 42 million (10-13m, 11-13m, 12-13m, 13-7m option)

Notes: Jones is the outlier of all outliers, since he's a franchise icon in Atlanta and could end up in the Hall of Fame some day. The Braves couldn't have let Chipper walk out the door, but after flirting with .400, his leverage was very high to get a huge deal done. Thus, this three-year deal, averaging 13 million per. Was an aging player worth this? I'm not sure, but it's definitely going to be the contract Tejada's agent bases his sales pitches around.

Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington Nationals

Contract Details: 5 years, 45 million (09-3.325m, 10-6.25m, 11-8.925m, 12-12m, 13-14m)

Notes: Another deal which bought out part of Zimmerman's arbitration years. This also goes for Troy Tulowitski and Ryan Braun's new deals. Zimmerman got a nice bump and quite the salary security for the next five years.

The Breaking News

Jack Wilson, SS, Seattle Mariners

Contract Details: 2 years 10 million (10-5 million, 11-5 million)

Notes: Wilson avoided free agency by agreeing to a deal with the Mariners last Friday. Wilson is nowhere near the hitter Tejada is, posting a wOBA of .286, but is much better with the glove. The Mariners acquired Wilson midway through last season to replace the departed Yuniesky Betancourt. Wilson had an 8.4 million dollar option, which the Mariners didn't have to exercise by coming to terms with him on this deal. If a more one-dimensional player like Wilson can get an average of 5 million per year, it doesn't bode well for Tejada, who may be moved to a less premium defensive position.

Forecast for Tejada

Taking into account Buster Olney's latest comments from above and the market from last season, it's safe to assume Tejada will sign for somewhere around 7 million per year for two years. Some team may be willing to up that number to around 9 or 10 million, but only over one season. I could see the White Sox possibly making a move here, but I don't see Tejada getting more than a two year deal from anyone. Not at his age nor when he'd have to most likely move positions. It's also highly unlikely any team would commit serious money to him as a shortstop, but don't rule out the Royals.

Troy Glaus, Melvin Mora options for Astros?

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 01:57:28 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

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ESPN.com's Buster Olney has learned that the Astros only have the flexibility to make minor moves, perhaps adding a right-handed hitting third baseman to platoon with Geoff Blum.

Blum hit only .247 with 10 home runs, and is a career .250 hitter. If the Astros could land a perennial hitter at a bargain rate, Blum could easily be moved to a bench role.

With that said, Troy Glaus is coming off a season in which he appeared in only 14 games, hitting just .172. The 33-year old right-hander could be reduced to a one or two year deal, worth 5-6 million dollars annually.

Glaus has a lot of upside, never hitting less than 27 home runs when healthy enough to reach 500 at-bats. He is a Type-B free agent.

Melvin Mora is also a Type-B free agent, despite putting up his lowest home runs total since 2001. A change of scenery could benefit the .278 career hitter, who will be 38 in February. He certainly can be had on a one year deal in the range of 4-5 million dollars.

If you are an Astros fan, who would you rather have: Troy Glaus or Melvin Mora?

With Miguel Tejada most likely on his way out, Tommy Manzella is in as Astros Shortstop in 2010

HighLeveragePerformer — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 17:47:09 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Tommy Manzella and Michael Bourn would give the Astros one of the best defensive SS-CF combos in the NL Central

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Straight from Eddy Wade's mouth:

At this point, we’re prepared to commit to Tommy Manzella playing shortstop.

The possibility remains that Tejada could return as a third baseman.

Tommy Manzella grades anywhere from good to very good at shortstop. AstroAndy did a fine comparison between Manzella and former Astro Adam Everett a few months ago. Replacing this kind of defense with Manzella's defensive abilities at short would definitely be a boon.

As far as being able to retain Miguel Tejada as a third baseman, I don't know if that would be in the cards. His Bill James projection for 2010 is actually better in terms of runs created per game as compared to 2009. The million dollar-plus question will be if that production is worth spending X amount of dollars more on the veteran Tejada vs. some sort of platoon with Blum/Kepp/C. Johnson.

With Lance Berkman, Geoff Blum, Kaz Matsui and Jeff Keppinger already assured of spots on the club in 2010, Ed Wade will have decisions to make on which other infielders to bring in. It seems as if Tommy Manzella will play shorstop, as a trade or free agent signing isn't likely. While Chris Johnson has shown promise, don't look past Jeff Keppinger as a good option to be a starter on this team. He's not going to get David Wright AB's, but he is right at the peak of his career and is looked at as being a solid contributor in 2010. A fairly cheap contract makes him nearly as attractive as Johnson for the cost conscious Astros.

Bottom line, this was the first real indication of what changes we can expect in our 2010 Astros. For those who missed having a superb defensive shortstop, your wish looks like it may be coming true. Tommy Manzella will need time to adjust to major league hitting, but he has shown the ability to approach Everett's level offensively. That may not wow you, but remember that the cost is right with Manzella. Get used to hearing that sort of rationalization from the Astros camp. Keep in mind as well that Gio Mier is drawing rave reviews as the best defensive shortstop from the 2009 draft and his bat has been better than advertised so far as a professional. View Manzella however you want- a defensive savant, a stopgap, Adam Everett, 2.0. He makes the league minimum, and when your team is dominated by three player's salaries, those are the sort of trade offs a team must make.

As for Miguel Tejada, it doesn't appear that he will be back as an Astro, despite the door being left open for his return. He turned in a nice offensive season and as stated earlier is supposed to be even better in 2010. It's probable that another club gives him a shot at third, and does so with a contract whose value is close to eight figures per season. The Astros have three serviceable to slightly above serviceable options at third base, which leaves Tejada as the odd man out in my mind.

What should the Astros do with their shoe string budget?

DyingQuail — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 15:16:28 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

Rich Hill is definitely my pick for sexy-under-the-radar reclamation project. He still has a few prime years in his tank and is a major head case, it seems. From we know of Arnsberg, that's right in his wheelhouse.

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The title is somewhat facetious. The Astros are guaranteed to spend around $80 million, as is, heading into 2010, but there should be another $10-15 million to allocate to filling the gaps. So where should Ed Wade and co. be focusing on allocating it?

In my mind, there are few options:

Find someone for 3rd base. Geoff Blum isn't getting any younger and Chris Johnson isn't getting any better at getting on base. Jeff Keppinger was great as a platoon there, but I think we can find a better option. This option could include re-signing Tejada and slotting him at 3rd, but I doubt that happens in the wake of the Blum re-signing. If we really wanted to go for it: Chone Figgins (probably a multi-year deal with at least $7-8 million on the table each year).
Sign LaTroy Hawkins back to have a strong depth for the likely closer by committee situation I can feel building. There are a few former closers who carry the label to which I'm sure Ed Wade is keen, and my Interesting rehab-esque-project of the bunch is Billy Wagner.
Sign a top-teir reclamation project for Arnsberg to get behind. Ben Sheets or Justin Duchscherer are probably the cream of that crop. Both are coming off years where they were DLed and in all honesty I don't know the exact status of either of the two, but if they could log 100-120IP for us in 2010 just think of the marginal gain. That's replacing Hampton or Ortiz' production for probably not a whole lot more in guaranteed money. Neither of those two are looking for multi-year deals. Instead, they're looking for a chance to audition for a year and then jump into the big deals they seemed primed for in 2008. My under the radar choice for Arnsberg to ply his trade with: Rich Hill (see photo caption for explanation...for the one other than LHP hominid).
Convince Drayton McLane that if he wants a decent on-field product, he's probably going to accept spending in the red. I don't think this is a hard argument to win. There's little to no fan excitement with this team—especially after a 10-22 last month-ish of the season. Unemployment is still up and while other macro-economic indicators are improved, they're not game changing. The odds that attendance collapses further if Drayton doesn't do something to generate excitement is roughly the equivalent of the odds that Drew Brees beats Jake Delhomme in TD passes this season. So the options Drayton has seem to be: lose money by nothing nothing, or spend just a little bit more money and increase your odds that you don't lose revenue.

If four were to happen, I could easily see us accomplish two and three. But I don't know how many different ways you can combine the options with the shoe string budget that rounds out payroll. Thus, the crux of our offseason seems to be what will the Astros brass deem our most important short coming as a baseball club. My hope is that they realize they likely have to pay a lot of attention to option three.

My in a perfect world of realitic limitations off season goes like this:

Rich Hill signs for no more than $3 million.
Hawkins re-signed, or some equivalent former closer for no more than $5 million. Wagner would be a sexy choice.
Bobby Crosby gets a crack at 3rd base for $5-6 million.

That's $13-14 million and I think it plugs some major holes. While still leaving some wiggle room for our "that guy still plays baseball?" corps of bench guys that Ed Wade plucks from the nether-regions of baseball.

Those are just my ideas, though. What say you?

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 02 Nov 2009 14:57:28 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

J.J. Hardy will most likely be traded this offseason, but no matter what Buster Olney says, he's almost certainly not going to be non-tendered.

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Some things to read while getting new cufflinks.

So, with the World Series possibly one day away from being over, we're quickly closing in on hot stove season. Let's start today's rumor roundup with J.J. Hardy. Buster Olney thinks the Brewers could non-tender Hardy, but Al and I both agree that the concept is sheer lunacy. The logic behind it (as cited on MLB Trade Rumors) is beyond flawed:

Olney writes that the Red Sox inquired about Hardy at the deadline, but balked when the Brewers asked for excellent prospects in return. Olney wonders if this is a sign of things to come, and if no market for Hardy develops, would the Brewers be better off non-tendering the former All-Star?

So let me get this straight: The Brewers turned down an offer from the Red Sox because it wasn't enough. If nothing else develops, instead of returning to the Red Sox and asking for the same offer, Olney thinks the Brewers could let Hardy walk for free? On what planet does that make sense?

Roguejim also has a look at Hardy's trade value, and MLB Trade Rumors has a look at other shortstops that could be available via trade.

Elsewhere on the (hypothetical) market, we have Mat Gamel. MLB Trade Rumors has him listed among third basemen who could be on the move this offseason. The Nashville Sounds' website has an article from Baseball America with Gamel's reaction to a tough season offensively.

Until Jarrod Washburn either becomes a Brewer or signs somewhere else, his name is most likely going to keep coming up. Keep Turning Up the Heat! has a look at Washburn's recent performance and would accept a one year deal for him, but also notes that the 2010 Brewers are probably in trouble if Washburn is their biggest acquisition.

Meanwhile, Mike Cameron's name continues to come up in connection to other teams: The Cub Reporter has a look at Cameron as a potential fit in Wrigley in 2010, but doesn't think the two sides are a match.

As they suggested they would, the Brewers have found another job in the organization for former interim pitching coach Chris Bosio. He'll serve as the team's advance scout next season (FanShot).

Jonathan Lucroy is off to a hot start in the AFL, as he hit his second home run on Friday. Tom H. also got a positive review from a scout who recently saw Lucroy play for Peoria. Lucroy is probably a candidate to represent the Brewers when rosters are announced later today for the Rising Stars Game, which will be played on Saturday and broadcast live on MLB Network.

For more on Lucroy, the rest of the Brewers in the AFL and Alcides Escobar's season debut weekend in Venezuela, be sure to check out today's Fall/Winter League Update.

Elsewhere in the minors, I may have committed a Twitter foul. Yesterday afternoon I made a joke about the somewhat unexciting nature of Eric Arnett's recent Twitter activity, and today his account has been removed. Hopefully I'm not responsible for that. Meanwhile, Seth McClung has a picture of his daughter's Halloween costume.

Yet again, we have less-than-encouraging news about the depth of prospects in the Brewer organization, at least defensively: Alex Pedicini of The Hardball Times has the top four minor leaguers at each position, ranked by Total Zone, and there's not a single Brewer prospect among the 28 players listed.

Around baseball:

Astros: Declined their option for 2010 on Doug Brocail, and re-signed Geoff Blum to a one year deal worth $1.5 million.
Giants: Re-signed Freddy Sanchez to a two year deal worth $12 million, and declined their 2010 option on Noah Lowry. They also removed pitchers Justin Miller and Kelvin Pichardo from the 40-man roster. Miller is expected to become a free agent.
Indians: Removed pitchers Mike Gosling and Scott Lewis and infielder Niuman Romero from their 40-man roster.

Did Robin Yount use a corked bat? A game used Robin Yount bat with cork in it is up for auction, leading to discussion regarding the possibility. There's also a strong possibility the bat was corked sometime after it left Yount's possession. I'm reluctant to believe Yount corked the bat, for a simple reason: If Yount knew the bat was corked, he most likely also knew that someone would be able to figure out it had been tampered with. Why, then, would he ever give that bat away? That's like giving your autograph on the back of a steroid prescription.

Could John Maine be a reclamation candidate for Rick Peterson in 2010? Amazin' Avenue suggests he's a candidate to be non-tendered, but concludes the Mets should bring him back.

Baseball Analysts has an interesting look at pitchers' velocity and how it changes as the season goes along, broken down by several demographics. Most of the data isn't exceptionally surprising, but the difference in pitch speed between April and the rest of the season is pretty striking. (h/t Beyond the Box Score)

I'll admit it: I'm having a hard time getting excited for or paying much attention to the World Series. I have yet to sit through an entire game, and I've fallen asleep before the end of both games 3 and 4. Yet somehow, I don't feel as bad now that I know that Jon Heyman caught writers playing Scrabble and solitaire on their computers during Game 3.

Among the five candidates (Lopes, Royster, Yost, Sveum and Macha), I think you can make a solid case that Jerry Royster was easily the worst Brewer manager of the 2000's, even among a pretty bad field of contenders. With that said, his stuff apparently works in Korea, where he has led the Lotte Giants to back-to-back postseason appearances and signed a $600,000 contract extension over the weekend.

If you're hanging around the site tomorrow afternoon, you may notice some minor changes in the site as part of the visual refresh of the SB Nation platform. The changes will be minor, but will also be step one in a project to improve the load time of sites, which should be good news for everyone.

On this day in 1974, the Brewers acquired Hank Aaron from Atlanta for outfielder Dave May and minor league pitcher Roger Alexander. Aaron would go on to hit .232/.326/.360 in his final two seasons as a Brewer, make the 1975 All Star team and hit 22 home runs.

Happy birthday today to:

Taylor Green, 2009 Huntsville Star and current Brewer representative in the Arizona Fall League, who turns 23.
2007-09 Nashville Sound Lindsay Gulin, who turns 33.
Paul Ridgon, who made 27 starts as a 2000-2001 Brewer after coming over from the Indians in the Bob Wickman-Richie Sexson deal, and turns 34.
Paul Hartzell who appeared in four games for the '84 Brewers and turns 56.

Oh, and the Phoenix Desert Dogs ate mac and cheese after Friday's AFL contest. I don't know if they used this recipe.

Drink up.

Roster Breakdown: The Infield

davoag — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:40:35 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

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This process took a little longer than I expected. In part two of my review of the roster, I looked at every infielders' (including catchers) statistics and make some notes about last season and their future. Not necessarily scientific, but there is some interesting information in here. Friday should see part three, a look at the outfield. Till then, let's see what happened with the first half of the roster...

Lance Berkman, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 562 PA, .274/.399/.509, 31 doubles, 1 triple, 25 HR, 73 runs, 80 RBIs, 7 of 11 stolen bases, 98 strikeouts, 140 OPS+

WAR: 3.0

UZR: -4.5

VORP: 34.9

Notes: Two points to consider about Berkman's season. First, his April and August splits were horrible. His slow start and power vacuum in August led to the perception that his season was a disappointment. Still, though he managed just 12 hits in April, he also walked 17 times and hit five home runs. In August, he hit zero home runs but had an OBP over .400. This also leads into the second point: Berkman is aging, but his power drop over the past three seasons is in part due to an overall power outage in the National League. The Big Puma saw his home run total fall 26 percent over the past three seasons while his extra-base hits have fallen 5 percent. That's almost exactly the same percentage that the NL extra-base hit total dropped over the same time period (5.6%). The NL home run total dropped 8.2 percent, but I'm guessing Berkman's drop in homers is beginning to be due to age. Still, if he hits 30 home runs in the next year or two with 50+ XBH, I'm guessing the Astros will be happy.

Kazuo Matsui, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 533 PA, .250/.302/.357, 20 doubles, 2 triples, 9 HR, 56 runs, 46 RBIs, 19 of 22 stolen bases, 85 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

UZR: -1.0

VORP: 0.4

Notes: I'll be up front: I don't care for Matsui. He's overpaid, he's injured too often and he doesn't get on base enough to bat high in the order. That's just my personal preference, but I wanted to get that out in the open in the interests of being objective. Matsui's line is down quite a bit from 2008 but combine the past two seasons and its almost exactly in line with his career line of .271/.325/.387. His Runs Created totals of 64 in 2007, 61 in 2008 and 56 in 2009 have been very consistent, but his BABiP was 40 points lower in 2009 at .285 than the previous season. Add to that a good stolen base rate of 85% over his career and Matsui does have his uses. The problem is, he's a No. 7 hitter, not a leadoff guy. Matsui's numbers should bounce back some in 2010, but don't bet on another .350 OBP.

Miguel Tejada, SS

2009 Season Stats: 673 PA, .313/.340/.455, 46 doubles, 1 triple, 14 HR, 83 runs, 86 RBIs, 5 of 7 stolen bases, 48 strikeouts, 110 OPS+

WAR: 2.6

UZR: -8.3

VORP: 43.7

Notes: Tejada had the highest VORP of any player on the Astros roster last season, for good reason. Though his OBP wasn't terribly high, he did hit a ton of doubles and actually had more extra-base hits than Berkman. In fact, Tejada led the National League in doubles in 2009. Tejada also struck out just 48 times, which was his lowest total since his 104 plate appearances in 1997. Of course, the flip side of that is it was also his lowest walk total since 1997, too. Tejada's high batting average was due in part because he had his highest BABiP since 2006, 20 points higher than his career BABiP of .298. Tejada once again led the National League in grounding into double plays and put up his highest season totals since 2006 in plate appearances, RBIs, hits and sacrifice flies. I'm not sure if this was the most successful contract push for a 35-year old in the post-steroids era, but it's got to be up there on the list, right?

Geoff Blum, 3B/Util

2009 Season Stats: 427 PA, .247/.314/.367, 14 doubles, 1 triple, 10 HR, 34 runs, 49 RBIs, 0 for 1 stolen bases, 61 strikeouts, 81 OPS+

WAR: 0.6

UZR: 0.3

VORP: -0.5

Notes: Blum was the only regular Astros infielder (besides the catchers) who posted a negative VORP. His crazy hair styles and home runs off the bench were fun and zany in 2004 when the Astros were making their run to the postseason. Now? Blum's a steady defender but doesn't have great range and is aging quickly. His OPS+ of 81 is not good for any position, much less a corner infield spot. Surprisingly, Blum's numbers last season were right in line with his career line of .250/.310/.367, but moving into his age 37 season, he's probably not going to equal those numbers in 2010. Blum started 94 games at third and seven at first, but is probably better suited as being the Astros number one pinch hitter next year.

Ivan Rodriguez, C

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .251/.280/.382, 15 doubles, 2 triples, 8 HR, 41 runs, 34 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 74 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR:0.7

VORP: -1.1

Notes: Ahh, Pudge. Has there been a more controversial free agent signing by the Astros in recent memory? Can someone split a room between stat guys and traditional scouting guys more than Pudge? The 37-year old couldn't walk if he were given two balls at the beginning of every at-bat. He would sometimes throw out baserunners, but was never talked about as a good handler of the pitching staff. Where do we go from there? Pudge started out strong for the Astros but faded late, and did the same thing after being traded to the Rangers. Starting him and Matsui together proved dangerous for the Astros offense, as they both posted sub-80 OPS+. When 1/4 of the starting lineup can't get on base or hit for power, something's not right.

Humberto Quintero, C

2009 Season Stats: 168 PA, .236/.286/.376, 8 doubles, 1 triple, 4 HR, 11 runs, 14 RBIs, 0 of 0 stolen bases, 41 strikeouts, 75 OPS+

WAR: 0.5

VORP: -0.4

Notes: Q suffered through a bad concussion this season, but still managed to get into 60 games this season. He started some after Pudge was traded away, but didn't impress offensively. In fact, he's never hit much in the majors, with a career line of .232/.275/.325. Quintero has a strong arm and handles the pitching staff well, but will be 30 next season in his last non-arbitration year. He makes sense as a backup to someone like Towles or Jason Castro, but putting him in the starting lineup is a stretch.

J.R. Towles, C

2009 Season Stats (Houston): 53 PA, .188/.250/.354, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 2 HR, 7 runs, 3 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 16 strikeouts, 59 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

VORP: -1.7

Notes: What to do with Towles? The 25-year old couldn't stay healthy at Round Rock this season, getting only 56 games with the Express. When he did play, Towles hit the ball well and got on base at a good clip, sporting an OPS of .842 in Triple-A. That didn't translate to the pros in either of his two stints with the team, but it should. All Towles needs is a little time and opportunity.

Jeff Keppinger, Util

2009 Season Stats: 344 PA, .256/.320/.387, 13 doubles, 3 triples, 7 HR, 35 runs, 29 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 33 strikeouts, 88 OPS+

WAR: 0.4

UZR: 5.7

VORP: 2.8

Notes: Keppinger was a late-spring addition, something former GM Gerry Hunsicker made into somewhat of an art form. Unfortunately, Keppinger didn't work out quite as well as guys like Mike Lamb and Billy Spiers did. That's not to say Keppinger was bad, as his batting was okay for a shortstop. Again, unfortunately, Keppinger played 59 games at third base. His range and glove made him an asset defensively there, but his bat is not good enough to hold up there for long periods of time. Still, Keppinger is a useful player who makes more sense on the bench than most of the Astros' reserves.

Darin Erstad, 1B

2009 Season Stats: 150 PA, .194/.268/.328, 8 doubles, 2 triples, 2 HR, 13 runs, 11 RBIs, 0 for 2 stolen bases, 31 strikeouts, 58 OPS+

WAR: -0.9

UZR: 7.9

VORP: -8.2

Notes: Erstad was a surpringly resurgent part of the 2008 team. Of course, in that campaign, Erstad played 40 games in center field. This season? Just one appearance in center field. Erstad could be a useful player, but he doesn't have the bat to be a first baseman, even as a backup, and doesn't have the arm to play in right field. That leaves him as the caddy for Carlos Lee. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but the next manager should not view Erstad as the first bat off the bench to pinch hit.

Edwin Maysonet, 2B

2009 Season Stats: 79 PA, .290/.333/.362, 2 doubles, 0 triples, 1 HR, 9 runs, 7 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 19 strikeouts, 86 OPS+

WAR: 0.3

UZR: 8.3

VORP: 1.1

Notes: Maysonet wasn't one of the best prospects in the Astros system, but made the best debut of any Astros rookie position player in 2009. His average was high, but his OBP was not impressive. Add to that his complete lack of power and it's not like we have the next Chase Utley here. Still, Maysonet probably deserved more playing time than he got. He'd been known in the minors as a great defensive player and flashed good range in his time with the big league club. The only downside is his minor league track batting record was not very good. Maysonet had a decent season in 2008 at Corpus Christi, but was pretty terrible at Round Rock last season. That could be him reacting to shuttling back and forth from Triple-A to the majors. That could be because he's not ready to hit high-level pitching. Only time will tell.

Tommy Manzella, SS

2009 Season Stats: 5 PA, .200/.200/.200, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 4 strikeouts, 7 OPS+

WAR: 0.0

UZR: -11.6

VORP: -0.5

Notes: The Great Shortstop Hope will be 27 next season and hasn't made a dent in the big leagues yet. There were a couple stories in September about how Manzella was learning from Tejada and soaking it all in, but he still needs to play. Manzella was a very consistent hitter for Round Rock in 2009, batting .289/.339/.417 in 133 games. The one good thing? Manzella is a horse, playing 521 games over the past five seasons in the minors. His defense is good, but it's hard to quantify how good it will be in the majors. In all likelihood, Manzella will be given every chance to be the everyday shortstop next season.

Chris Johnson, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 23 PA, .091/.130/.091, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 6 strikeouts, -39 OPS+

WAR:-0.4

UZR: -34.9

VORP: -4.2

Notes: Johnson is one of the few Astros prospects I'm not that high on. He gets a lot of credit for being a power hitter, but only hit 13 home runs last season and averaged 10 homers per year in his minor league career. His defense at third is just passable, but probably could be as good as Blum, given time. The question is: is this Astros team ready to take a chance on a young player going through growing pains at the big league level? It's going to take an adjustment for Johnson to be a productive big league hitter, and I'm not sure the Astros can be patient enough for that to happen.

Chris Coste, Util

2009 Season Stats: 112 PA, .204/.259/.252, 5 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 3 runs, 10 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 28 strikeouts, 37 OPS+

WAR: -0.5

UZR: -10.9

VORP: -8.1

Notes: After being picked up off waivers on July 10, Coste started a bunch of games when Lance Berkman was injured and then Ivan Rodriguez was traded to the Rangers. The problem is Coste just wasn't that good, either offensively or defensively. Coste didn't hit for much power in his brief stint with the team, but did manage to strike out a ton. So he's got that going for him, which is nice. Seriously, though, by whichever metric you look at, Coste is the prototypical replacement-level player. He's only on the roster because there aren't better options. Hopefully that will change in the off-season.

Matt Kata, Util

2009 Season Stats: 52 PA, .200/.212/.220, 1 double, 0 triple, 0 HR, 2 runs, 5 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 5 strikeouts, 16 OPS+

WAR: -0.1

UZR: 8.7

VORP: -4.8

Notes: Kata was more useful for his versatility off the bench than his play. As I mentioned at the top, I don't account much for UZR as the ONLY defensive metric to analyze things, especially when we have to extrapolate it out based on small sample sizes. Still, it appears Kata was at least a decent defensive asset on the bench this season. He's now a free agent.

Jason Smith, Util

2009 Season Stats: 27 PA, .000/.000/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 9 strikeouts, -100 OPS+

WAR: -0.6

UZR: 21.6

VORP: -7.4

Notes: Smith didn't get much of a chance to show anything at the big league level. What he did show wasn't good. Smith did better with Round Rock, but is probably best suited as a utility guy on the end of a bench. Smith is a free agent and probably won't be back with Round Rock.

Aaron Boone, 3B

2009 Season Stats: 14 PA, .000/.071/.000, 0 doubles, 0 triples, 0 HR, 0 runs, 0 RBIs, 0 for 0 stolen bases, 2 strikeouts, -79 OPS+

WAR: -0.3

UZR: 15.9

VORP: -3.4

Notes: Not much to say here, other than for a guy to go through what Boone did in spring training and still get 14 plate appearances in the same season...well, that's just impressive.