SB Nation - Paul McAnulty

Brave New Pawtucket

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 11:00:40 -0000

Huzzah! Finally, an SBN-hosted picture I can use! (AP Photo/Paul Beaty)

About 50 days ago, I wrote a piece on upcoming roster changes for the Pawtucket Red Sox that would be necessitated by a surge of players from below (see: The Pawtucket Roster Crunch). Things have turned out slightly differently. Promotion from within has certainly occurred. Aaron Bates had already moved up by then. Mark Wagner has since, and Junichi Tazawa recently joined the ranks in McCoy Stadium. Victor Martinez' acquisition will likely force Kottaras back down also (he should clear waivers) once the dust has settled. I expect the denizens of this site are already plenty familiar with those names, though, so let's focus elsewhere.

Equal pressure has come from outside the organization. By trading Julio Lugo and Mark Kotsay, the Red Sox acquired Chris Duncan and Brian Anderson. These acquisitions have of course required counter moves. Joining the ranks of the departed are outfielders Freddy Guzman, Jonathan Van Every (who left earlier due to a season ending injury, signing with Pittsburgh), and Paul McAnulty, as well as catcher Carlos Maldonado.

Two once highly-touted prospects whose careers had fizzled over the last few years, Duncan and Anderson now provide organizational depth at the AAA level with hopes of maybe reigniting the spark that a few years back had promised long successful MLB careers.

Major League success has always eluded Brian Anderson. Despite once being named a top-30 prospect in all of Baseball, Anderson has never batted well for average, has only once managed an OBP over .300 (this season at .322), and has only once slugged over .400 (last year and .436). His career average line in 782 professional at bats is an ugly .225/.288/.364. So far, in his short AAA stint, Anderson has been average. He's homered twice in 25 at bats, and has 7 hits for a .280 average. He's only walked once, however, leaving his OBP at a lowly .308, and that looks particularly ugly next to the 6 strikeouts. Earlier this year, with AAA Charlotte, he posted similar average and on base numbers, just without any power to back it up. It would be more than a little bit wishful to expect Anderson to turn it around at this point and live up to his 1^st round pick status, or anything close to it.

Chris Duncan, on the other hand, has experienced quite a bit of success in the majors. In his first season in the majors in 2006, Duncan was on fire, hitting 22 home runs in only 280 at bats en route to a line of .293/.363/.589. He followed this up with a solid, if unimpressive in comparison 2007, where he nearly matched his home run numbers, but in an extra 100 at bats. His high strikeout rate caught up with him somewhat, lowering his average to .259, but where he nearly doubled his strikeouts, he also nearly doubled his walks, keeping his OBP fairly consistent at .354. Duncan has been hampered by injuries in the last few years, though, starting with a hernia in late 2007, then a herniated disk in his neck in July of 2008. In recovering this year, Duncan posted a career low OPS of .687 in 260 career at bats. Duncan typically struggles tremendously against lefties, but has hit righties very well over the course of his career.

For the Red Sox right now, Brian Anderson is the one most likely to contribute, and could actually see time with the team reasonably soon. While Josh Reddick is more than making use of his time in the majors, the Sox are certain to want to make sure he gets ample playing time, so if the regular cadre of outfielders ends up healthy anytime soon, he could quickly be recalled to AA—or pro/demoted to AAA—to assure him a standard 4 at bats a game. In such a situation, the Sox would likely want to have a 5^th outfielder on the bench, and Brian Anderson can provide a solid glove at all three positions. Duncan lacks the range the Red Sox would be looking for, and so for now will most likely have to make the best with his opportunity in Pawtucket. If he can get himself healthy, his ceiling could be fairly high though, if unlikely to be reached. If he can also work out his problems with lefties to a point where he's at least respectable against them, Duncan has a slim chance of being a future contributor to the team. If not, he's more likely to be traded elsewhere to act in a platoon role. Still, at the moment he has quite a bit more long-term potential than Brian Anderson.

The Pawtucket Red Sox Roster Crunch

Ben Buchanan — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:08:01 -0000

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For some, it's just a stop on the way to the majors. For others, it has been home for years. With a surge of new talent on the way from the Portland Sea Dogs, Boston's AAA-affiliate Pawtucket Red Sox are about to have a major roster shake-up.

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When doing Minor Lines on an average night, Pawtucket is the least interesting team to look at. The notable names on offense, up till the promotion of Aaron Bates, were all guys who were likely to be bench players at best in their career. Chris Carter, Dusty Brown, Jeff Bailey, Jonathan Van Every. Talented ball players who often rank amongst the elite at AAA, but can't seem to take the next step and enter the world of the Majors.

Portland, on the other hand, is perhaps the most interesting team. Lars Anderson and Josh Reddick were the obvious standouts coming into the year. Wagner has exploded onto the scene with Aaron Bates. Ryan Kalish was promoted after only a month in Salem to start the year, and has slowly but surely begun to adapt to the tougher competition (.308/.325/.385 in June vs. .133/.212/.233 in May). Even less noticeable guys have performed, as 26-year-old Bubba Bell was promoted to Pawtucket today.

When a player is promoted in the minor leagues, much like in the Majors, there always has to be a counter move. Someone has to be traded, released, sent to the DL, promoted or demoted in order to make space. With such a large wave of players having legitimate shots at Pawtucket, and such a large amount of guys seemingly stuck at AAA, the Red Sox are faced with an obvious problem. Who stays, who goes, and what do we do with those who go?

Dusty Brown and Carlos Maldonado share duties behind the plate. They both share similar skill sets—good defensively, mediocre offensively—but Maldonado is a 30-year-old recent signing while Dusty Brown is a 26-year-old who has spent the last 8 years in the Red Sox farm system. Brown could also possibly carry some value down the line as a backup catcher once Wakefield decides to hang up his glove, so when Mark Wagner inevitably comes knocking, expect Maldonado to get the boot.

If Jorge Jimenez makes the jump sooner rather than later, the Sox will have an interesting choice. The PawSox have 3 players who can all play 2B, SS, and 3B in Gil Velazquez, Angel Chavez, and Travis Denker. Velazquez and Chavez are similar players. Both are older (29 and 27 respectively) with good gloves and mediocre bats. Chavez is better offensively, while Velazquez can also play all outfield positions. Travis Denker is something of a defensive liability, but is only 23 and has a somewhat better bat. The organization will probably elect to keep Denker due to his age and offense, but the choice between Chavez and Velazquez is harder. With the value the Sox put on versatility in the minor leagues, though, Velazquez seems to have an edge up.

The most crowded positions, though, are the 1B/DH and Outfield positions. Pawtucket currently rotates a trio of Jeff Bailey, Aaron Bates, and Paul McAnulty through the corner outfield and 1B positions with Jeff Natale, Freddy Guzman, and Chris Carter (usually at the DH) getting occasional turns. Currently on the DL, Zach Daeges and Jonathan Van Every are also often slotted in. Sometime next year, though, it's not at all unlikely that a majority of these spots will be filled by players currently in Portland. Lars Anderson and Josh Reddick will replace Jeff Bailey and Paul McAnulty in the starting group. Kalish will take over at center field, with Reddick seeing some starts there too.

If the Sox think they can get value for any of the guys currently in the group, they'll likely ship them off. Jeff Bailey, Chris Carter, and Jonathan Van Every are the most familiar names on the list, and the ones most likely to get some small returns. On the other hand, they're also the ones most likely to start the year with the Major League club. Depending on the future of Rocco Baldelli, Nick Green, Julio Lugo, and Mark Kotsay (not to mention David Ortiz), the Red Sox could quickly find themselves in need of a new 4^th outfielder or backup middle infielder. Bubba Bell would likely be one of the top candidates for a trade. It seems Bailey and Carter might again be fighting for a job next season, but without a spot at Pawtucket to fall back on. And if the Sox resign any of their current backups or add a few veterans in the offseason, then there could be no room for anyone.

Over the last few years, Pawtucket has stagnated a little. Aside from a few major players moving up (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lowrie), there has been an established core of AAAA position players who every so often get their shot at a cup of coffee. Now, the core seems destined to be broken up. Already, Chip Ambres was traded to the Mets and Sandy Madera was released. For some, the change will mean new opportunities. Whether with the Red Sox or another team, some of them certainly have the ability to at least be major league backups. For others, it will be just another move in a long series of moves in their long minor league careers. And for some more it may just be the end of the road. But for the Red Sox, it will mean a vast well of talent on the very edge of the making the Majors, and a much more interesting PawSox box score.