SB Nation - Chase Headley

NL West in Review: Left Fielders

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 06:00:41 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

A Rockies' draft pick was the most valuable LF in the NL West last season. It wasn't this guy though...

Barry Bonds must have set a hex on the NL West.

In 2009, the Dodgers had easily the most talented left fielder in the division. When Manny received his infamous suspension, Juan Pierre made sure that Los Angeles didn't miss a beat.

Gerardo Parra appeared on the Rookie of the Year ballot.

The Rockies saw Seth Smith and Carlos Gonzalez emerge from the bench and minors to become their most dangerous left-handed bats in the lineup.

And yet, the Giants still finish atop the WAR rankings, even though I'm pretty sure every player the Giants played in left field received death threats from MCC. How did they do it? UZR, of course.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Francisco	5	.269	11	59	.328	.411	.340	4.66
2. Los Angeles	4	.302	18	86	.407	.469	.377	4.57
3. Colorado	5	.268	20	74	.332	.440	.346	3.94
4. Arizona	6	.265	13	82	.319	.310	.402	2.10
5. San Diego	8	.250	12	76	.325	.371	.320	0.24

With the positional RAR set at -7.5, here is your chart:

The actual player rankings hold some certain surprises for you:

This time, I have included the full rankings. I'm still messing with the format, so let me know if this blinds you:

For the raw data and calculations, check this Google Docs link.

Arizona

2009 in Review

One of the great surprises in the above list is Eric Byrnes' appearance higher on the list than rookie Gerardo Parra. The crash test dummy did almost all of his offensive damage in 2009 as a left fielder, while his UZR far outpaced any of his brethren. It turns out somersaults are worth 0.5 UZR each. Parra, meanwhile, treated D-Backs fans to a rookie season slightly above average with both the bat and glove.

2010 in Preview

Parra is only 22, so his rookie season was notable. Arizona should feel confident going forward with Parra as their primary left fielder in 2010, although he doesn't have the ceiling of a Carlos Gonzalez. Josh Byrnes will likely purge Eric Byrnes and his $11mil salary before the season starts.

Colorado

2009 in Review

Even though Seth Smith did his best work from the bench and had only a half season's worth of PA's from LF, the former Rebel was within a stone's throw from the NL West's top spot. Mr. Late Night hit and scored a run from all nine slots in the batting order and hit lefties at just 25 OPS points lower than vs righties. Carlos Gonzalez was strong in his 133 PA, while Ryan Spilborghs provided a strong glove and average bat from the right side.

2010 in Preview

If Dan O'Dowd indeed moves Brad Hawpe, the job will belong to Seth Smith. If not, the Rockies' outfield carousel will continue, forcing Smith to give up ABs to CarGo and Spilly. The Bill James projection, usually optimistic for batters, projects a 14-point wOBA drop from Smith to .369.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Even after being suspended for 50 games, Manny Ramirez achieved the most PAs among NL West LF's. He led the divison in every stat except batting average and UZR. Juan Pierre replaced Ramirez admirably, enough that his contributions in even surpassed Manny. But even after having the top two LFs in the division in 2009, they were only second to the Giants.

2010 in Preview

Ramirez will make $20mil in the second and final year of the contract he signed with Los Angeles on March 4. He is the clear starter for 2010, even though his bat speed has started to slow.

San Diego

2009 in Review

The top rated Padre was a rookie first baseman thrown out to left field for 53 PA's, ranked 13th. That should tell you what you need to know. Chase Headley was the main starter, but the converted third baseman is still clearly trying to find his way as an outfielder, and he struggled with the bat most of the year, at least until he took over for an injured Kouzmanoff at third.

2010 in Preview

With Kouzmanoff entrenched still as the third baseman, Chase Headley will be stuck in left field again in 2010. He is under complete team control financially, so it would be especially nice for San Diego if he lived up to the 31-point wOBA leap Bill James is projecting from him in 2010.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

The Giants were the surprise winner from the 7-spot. All five players who played there achieved positive UZRs, including John Bowker, giving the Giants 2.5 WAR just on defense. Eugenio Velez hit very well in left (yet struggled at second), while Fred Lewis and Randy Winn provided notable value in spite of pedestrian offensive numbers.

2010 in Preview

This spot may be the most interesting to follow in the offseason. Jason Bay and Matt Holliday have been linked to the Giants, but it appears San Francisco will favor multiple smaller fish instead. The club's 2009 WAR in LF is pretty flukey, as multiple players hit better in LF than at other positions, and I don't quite trust that UZR. It would be a good place to improve. If no one is added, that Velez/Lewis/Torres/Schierholtz hodgepodge will continue.

Gaslamp Book Club: The Bill James Handbook 2010

Dex — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:56:43 -0000

I've always liked big baseball books, or at least, I've liked the idea of big baseball books. Tomes of base-ball knowledge!

Take this scene from a little known film about baseball:

Now, while you may have been paying attention to the moving monologue performed by Sir James Earl Jones, I was trying to determine exactly which page of the Baseball Encyclopedia he was on before being so rudely interrupted.

So what is a big baseball book lover to do? If you're me, then you and me are currently reading The Bill James Handbook 2010, which we recently had a preview for.

I know we looked at the 2010 hitter previews in the book before, but the much more interesting things are the plethora of statistics gathered and all of the imaginarily colorful black and white tables.

Like take for example the section on Manufactured Runs. Bill James' definition of a manufactured run is any run where at least 2 of the 4 total bases needed for a run come from something other than station to station baseball. When Adrian Gonzalez gets a base hit and then requires three more base hits in a row to score, Bill James considers that the opposite of a manufactured run.

However, when other teams besides the Padres get a player on base, steal second, then score on a single, that counts as a manufactured run.

So, knowing that manufactured runs sound like they'd be pretty fun to watch and would be effective ways of scoring runs, does it surprise you to know that the Padres were tied for third to last in all of baseball in manufactured runs (130 manufactured runs). That's a poorly written sentence, but basically, the Cubs and the Pirates were the only two teams who manufactured fewer runs (123 and 121 respectively).

Interestingly enough, the book also breaks down the number of times players participated in a manufactured run and despite the Padres only managing 130 manufactured, our own Everth Cabrera participated in 26 manufactured runs, which is among the top 10 in the NL. Anthony Keith Gwynn Jr and Chase Headley are second and third on the Padres with 19 and 15 contributions respectively.

So, what does that mean? What do we do with that?

If you're like me, you use the book to try to find stats to explain why you didn't find the Padres interesting this season and Manufactured Runs is a terrific one. Now, when people ask me why I got bored with the team, I have statistics to back me up.

NL West in Review: 3rd Basemen

Poseidon's Fist — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 19:00:43 -0000

by David Zalubowski - AP

Atkins could soon be a teammate of the pitcher he just hit a home run off of in this picture: Cole Hamels. Maybe going ~~to a hitter's park~~ away could help ~~his career~~ the Rockies.

View full size photo »

You want to know where the Rockies lost the division in 2009? Don't look at Jorge de la Rosa's groin (please don't). Don't blame Clint Hurdle. Don't blame Canada. Don't look at the Rockies seemingly annual inability to beat one NL West team.

No - your culprit is the hot corner.

The Rockies were heavy favorites to outclass the NL West at third base going into the season. Garrett Atkins was projected to finally rebound while Ian Stewart was expected to exhibit growth. Either way, Colorado was sitting pretty. Brendan Scolari's preseason report had the Rockies way out in front at third base, totalling 5.5 WAR, with San Francisco second at just 2.3 WAR. Los Angeles was in a tie for last at just 2.0 WAR.

Part of that is misleading, as his projections gave the Rockies about 300 extra PA, so Colorado's lead over LA should been more in the neighborhood of 2.5 WAR. Instead, it was Los Angeles that trounced the Rockies by almost 3.5 WAR. There's a six game swing right there.


Teams	Players	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	WAR
1. San Francisco	4	.313	26	92	.368	.532	.392	6.04
2. Los Angeles	6	.283	20	92	.356	.424	.353	4.95
3. Arizona	4	.247	39	90	.336	.487	.355	3.70
4. San Diego	5	.258	20	100	.314	.420	.331	3.19
5. Colorado	4	.223	22	77	.314	.386	.307	1.56

The third base position was comparatively very stable in 2009 for the division - only the Rockies failed to have a third baseman accrue 500+ PA.Your graphical plot of the RAR for all five teams, with the positional RAR set at +2.5:

You might be surprised who comes out on top of the NL West rankings for third base. (Hint: this man is responsible).

There were 23 total third basemen, with the top five representing the main starters from each of the five teams. The complete rankings/stats can be viewed here, along with all the juicy math behind the numbers:

Rank	Player	Team	PA	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA*	UZR	WAR
1	Casey Blake	LAD	557	.282	18	78	.365	.471	.362	8.0	4.00
2	Pablo Sandoval	SFG	512	.320	20	69	.377	.544	.401	-4.5	3.82
3	Mark Reynolds	AZ	554	.246	37	80	.339	.528	.375	-4.3	3.23
4	Kevin Kouzmanoff	SDP	571	.238	18	71	.303	.420	.325	7.7	2.62
5	Ian Stewart	COL	379	.225	15	41	.327	.420	.320	4.7	1.57
~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~	~
19	Chris Burke	SDP	3	.000	0	0	.000	.000	.000	-	-0.06
20	Josh Wilson	SDP	13	.154	0	0	.154	.231	.167	-	-0.10
21	Augie Ojeda	AZ	63	.182	1	4	.262	.291	.245	-4.1	-0.12
22	Edgar Gonzalez	SFG	15	.214	0	1	.267	.429	.284	-1.4	-0.13
23	Blake DeWitt	LAD	26	.200	0	2	.192	.280	.234	-0.6	-0.14

Arizona

2009 in Review

Mark Reynolds overcame all of his strikeouts to post the division's best home run and RBI totals, nearly doubling his nearest pursuer in the HR column. His poor fielding cost his team about half a win, but he is certainly a feared hitter in just his third season in the league. Augie Ojeda struggled in his 20 games, but Ryan Roberts and Chad Tracy helped the cause in their limited duty.

2010 in Preview

Reynolds is firmly planted as the full-time starter for the forseeable future, and the 26-year-old should only be getting better. He made just $423k last season and is due for a nice raise in arbitration.

Colorado

2009 in Review

All four Rockies who manned third base were actually below replacement value hitting-wise with park factors considered, a very disappointing showing considering the personnel in place. Ian Stewart failed to hit over two and a quarter, and his patented slugging could only match Kevin Kouzmanoff. Garrett Atkins' struggles are well documented, and while he was a below average fielder, I still calculate that he was a +0.34 WAR player at third (far from the 5.5 projected), likely due to a difference in park adjustments compared to Fangraphs.

2010 in Preview

Garrett Atkins will be gone and Ian Stewart has the job. As glum as this season was, it should provide Rockies fans with great hope for next season. Quite frankly, there's nowhere to go but up, and the potential is certainly there to make up that ground on the division. I believe Stewart can take that necessary step forward, especially with improved hitting against LHP, which he never had a problem with until 2009. Stewart made $404k last season, which will get a bump for next year. With Atkins leaving, Dan O'Dowd will probably look for a veteran bench bat who can also play third, perhaps a Mike Lamb.

Los Angeles

2009 in Review

Casey Blake is the surprise winner in the third base rankings led in large part by his 0.8 WAR defensive contribution, which could quite frankly be a fluke. He hasn't even been had a positive UZR at third base since his first year as a starter in Cleveland six seasons ago. He was very clearly an asset with the bat, as he provided more value to Los Angeles offensively than anyone not named Manny, Andre or Matt. Ronnie Belliard had a ridiculous .458 wOBA in his 38 September PA in Dodger blue.

2010 in Preview

Seven months ago, the Dodgers thought they might be eventually passing the torch from Blake to Blake (DeWitt), but Casey's emergence and DeWitt's regression makes that seem a little silly now. Blake is the clear full-time starter for at least next season, as he will be in the second year of his 3-year $17.5million deal.

San Diego

2009 in Review

Kevin Kouzmanoff nearly usurped Blake as the division's most valuable fielder at the five spot, which is all that saves him after regressing offensively once again in a San Diego uniform. Three Padres appear in the bottom five, but their negative contributions are so small that Chase Headley negated them six times over in 113 PA.

2010 in Preview

The 28-year-old Kouz is eligible for arbitration and looks to be the starter for next season. There won't be a free agent replacing the Colorado native due to financial constraints, but if he struggles more, look for Chase Headley to move back to his natural position, opening an outfield spot for an infusion of youth.

San Francisco

2009 in Review

Pablo Sandoval is clearly the best hitting third baseman in the division, or at least he was in 2009. The 23-year-old Venezuelan struggles with the glove (as you might expect with a novice scout's eye) more than any third baseman in the division, but his hitting production is mind-blowing considering the hurdles he has: no protection from Molina, age, moving positions, AT&T Park....The only reason he doesn't top this list is the 97 PA he spent manning first base.

2010 in Preview

Sandoval made just $402k last season, less than even Eugenio Velez. He'll get a nice raise and will be starting at third and hitting third Opening Day.

San Diego Padres Predictions from the Bill James Handbook 2010

Dex — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 05:41:12 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

"I was looking at the Mayan calendar, and 2010 is our year. 2012, not so much." (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

Browse more photos »

I've got a sneak peak at the new Bill James Handbook 2010 and I want to go through and check out what we can look forward to next season. Bill James has been putting these handbooks together forevs and I always look at them with an eye towards who might do what, but also an eye towards pretending that I have an even better predictive model using the guts of a chicken splayed out over a burning Ouija board.

Let's check it...

	Age	G	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	RC	RC27	BB	SO	SB	CS	SB%	Avg	OBP	Slg	OPS
Alfonzo,Eliezer	31	64	189	49	10	0	7	19	25	23	4.27	6	48	1	0	1	0.259	0.286	0.423	0.709
Blanco,Henry	38	82	228	51	11	0	6	22	23	23	3.38	20	52	0	0	0	0.224	0.286	0.351	0.637
Blanks,Kyle	23	142	524	145	23	3	25	79	93	89	6.07	66	140	3	2	0.6	0.277	0.362	0.475	0.837
Cabrera,Everth	23	145	545	146	29	11	3	90	44	74	4.68	67	117	37	12	0.76	0.268	0.353	0.378	0.731
Eckstein,David	35	128	444	120	21	1	3	57	35	49	3.91	34	40	4	2	0.67	0.27	0.337	0.342	0.68
Giles,Brian	39	92	292	77	17	1	7	40	36	43	5.18	47	36	2	1	0.67	0.264	0.371	0.401	0.772
Gonzalez,Adrian	28	161	614	171	37	2	35	97	106	117	6.87	87	127	1	0	1	0.279	0.372	0.516	0.888
Gonzalez,Edgar	32	63	112	30	6	0	3	13	13	15	4.7	11	22	1	1	0.5	0.268	0.344	0.402	0.746
Gwynn,Tony	27	88	212	56	8	2	1	29	14	24	3.9	22	32	10	4	0.71	0.264	0.336	0.335	0.671
Headley,Chase	26	149	528	150	36	3	17	72	72	87	5.94	63	129	8	3	0.73	0.284	0.365	0.455	0.819
Hundley,Nick	26	84	264	60	14	1	10	30	38	31	3.93	25	64	3	1	0.75	0.227	0.297	0.402	0.698
Kouzmanoff,Kevin	28	144	512	141	32	2	20	59	84	74	5.17	29	95	1	1	0.5	0.275	0.327	0.463	0.79
Rodriguez,Luis	30	95	244	62	13	1	2	27	20	27	3.84	28	21	1	1	0.5	0.254	0.331	0.34	0.671
Salazar,Oscar	32	88	246	72	16	1	9	31	40	40	5.94	18	33	1	1	0.5	0.293	0.341	0.476	0.817
Venable,Will	27	120	395	99	18	2	13	53	48	50	4.36	34	95	7	2	0.78	0.251	0.313	0.405	0.718

OK. So what does all of this mean? I'll tell you. It means we're effed.

I mean, maybe we aren't effed-effed, but still. Didn't this team feel faster in August and September? Didn't it feel more powerful? Was that just an illusion?

If this is the projection for our hitters, what does our starting lineup looking like at this point?

Is that really it? Doesn't it look weird to look at?

Bright Spots:

Everth Cabrera and Kyle Blanks both are predicted to up their production and both are young dudes. Everth is especially exciting for his speed and Kyle is exciting for the power. It's like Mantle and Maris! Blanks will probably end up protecting Adrian before the year is out, but probably not to start the season.
Adrian Gonzalez, while not predicted to put 40 over the fence next year, is still slated for another 100+ RBI season with close to 100 runs. Also, the doubles total bodes well for producing runs, but not so well for the needy children, dependent on these sadistic charities who will only donate money when Adrian puts a home run charge in the ball.

Mehs:

Kevin Kouzmanoff's numbers look kinda nice and I'm sure he'll total pretty close, but (sorry Kouz fans) I'm also thinking that a lot of the numbers will be put up in garbagy, unclutchy ways.
Wouldn't it be nice to have a catcher?
Something about Tony Gwynn's line looks really depressing.
Brian Giles is still on the team? How is he predicted to have so many ABs? Am I reading this right?

Tomorrow, let's look at pitchers. That should be scary fun.

In the meantime, the handbook is available for preorder. It would be rad of you to purchase the book through us. Maybe let's take some time right now to make really super bold predictions and then rub them in Bill James's face when ours turn out terrific.

Rox host hot Friars to kick off final homestand

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 21:02:04 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

For the last month, San Diego has been as hot as a team can be without having even one 5-game win streak.

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As I mentioned ad nauseum in the NL West Report yesterday, the Padres have managed to go four consecutive weeks without suffering a losing week. Look at the roster and the schedule, and you had better respect that. In fact, San Diego has won 10 of their past 13 series (and 12 of 16), with two of the losses coming against the mighty Cardinals. Four of the wins came against playoff contenders on the road.

Their pitching has stabilized dramatically, but also, as with many young teams, some of the youth in the lineup has started to figure things out at the plate. Chase Headley, Everth Cabrera, and Will Venable have all been steadily improving. You could point to their 30-45 record on the road as a big weakness, but I wouldn't let you without understanding that they are 17-14 on the road since the ASB, including being winners of 11 of 16 away from PetCo.

Then consider Kevin Kouzmanoff could finally return this series, meaning Bud Black doesn't have to use guys like Edgar Gonzalez in the outfield. Is there reason to be optimistic? Well, duh. The Rockies are much better team, they dominate at home (especially lately), and Colorado has the starting pitching edge in each game. Plus, San Diego was busy playing an extra inning game in the eastern time zone while the Rockies sat comfortably through an off day in Denver following a day game. Rest is on our side. I just wanted to worry you a little. We really ought to win this series, San Diego's recent history be damned.

In light of Rox Girl's article this afternoon, I'll leave out the Scoreboard Watch that debuted last week, but I will remember to include the link to Gaslamp Ball.

San Diego Padres (69-82, W3, 4th, 21.5 GB)

Friday-Sunday: 3-game series at Coors Field

The Bats: D+

As I mentioned last time, the Padres do not appear to be a good offensive club statistically. They are at or near the MLB cellar in batting average, runs, stolen bases and wOBA. But even the Yankees and Phillies would look terrible playing in PetCo Park. The team just scored 11 runs yesterday on the road - a game in which youngster Chase Headley had five hits - and their 94 team OPS+ almost makes them an average NL offense.

The return of the Kouz could help. He has been out since September 8th with a calf strain but took batting practice and was given an "outside shot" to return to the lineup yesterday. He did not, but I infer that means he should be back this series. The return of the third baseman would allow Chase Headley to slide back to left. Here's the lineup:

LINEUP	Avg	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	wOBA	OPS+
Everth Cabrera - SS	.267	2	30	.352	.377	.330	102
David Eckstein - 2B	.264	1	45	.321	.338	.295	83
Adrian Gonzalez - 1B	.273	39	92	.398	.557	.398	161
Kevin Kouzmanoff - 3B	.257	17	84	.304	.421	.313	99
Chase Headley - LF	.266	12	61	.342	.408	.333	107
Will Venable - RF	.270	11	33	.337	.463	.349	119
Nick Hundley - C	.233	7	27	.309	.401	.309	95
Tony Gwynn Jr - CF	.266	1	17	.344	.333	.302	89

That's not an intimidating lineup, but they aren't really pushovers either. Judging from the multitude of stats, A-Gone is a bona fide All-Star while Will Venable is a very strong MLB starter. Headley and Cabrera are competently average if not slightly stronger, and Nick Hundley is young an improving to the average area. Gwynn and Eckstein are below average, but they aren't dragging the offense down as much as most lineups we have seen recently.

Drew Macias (.174, 1, 6) and Luis Durango (4-for-6) are the backup OF, though Oscar Salazar (.310, 3, 8) and Edgar Gonzalez (.205, 4, 13) are IFs that have also recieved starts in the outfield. Luis Rodriguez (.211, 2, 16) joins Salazar and Gonzalez as IF relief options while Eliezer Alfonzo (.180, 2, 8) and Henry Blanco (.236, 5, 13) fill the roles as the typical September backup catcher duo.

Hop after the jump for the scouting report on the arms, the D, the pitching matchups, the hot/cold players and injuries.

The Arms: D+

I feel like I'm having serious de ja vu. First, we face Lincecum/Zito/Cain in order in a series twice in two weeks. Now we're facing Mujica/Stauffer/Richard in order. Again. The last time it happened, the Rockies eeked out one additional win the second go-round. If they do it again, that means a series win.

The above phenomenon points to something San Diego hasn't had much this season - stability, and that's always a plus. They still have a staff tRA north of five, but as we saw last time, they can still be a threat. Mujica, Stauffer and Richard held the Rockies to just 4 runs on 8 hits over 15 IP. Past that, the bullpen is improving its stability and talent as well. They just got setup man Mike Adams back, finally. Of the 13 pitchers in the bullpen, only 3 have ERA+'s south of 100. Take of that what you will.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Heath Bell	6-4	64	0	0	0	39	5	65.2	49	21	21	3	22	72	2.88	1.08

Wade LeBlanc (95 ERA+), Joe Thatcher (155), Cesar Ramos (3.0 IP, 0 ER) and Aaron Poreda (0.2 IP, 0 ER) are Bud Black's left-handed options, a rich goodie bag that will help against a left-handed dominant Rockies team. The right side of the pen is inhabited by Mike Adams (434 ERA+), Luke Gregerson (127), Adam Russell (100), Greg Burke (86), Ryan Webb (100), Luis Perdomo (81), Ernesto Frieri (has not appeared), and Sean Gallagher (5.0 IP, 0 ER).

The D: C-

San Diego's 87 errors places them right in the middle of the NL, but they have the second-worst UZR only to the Mets. Fangraphs' UZR based rating system places them just shy of average. Should Kouzmanoff return, he'll provide a boost defensively on the infield, but Headley isn't an asset at Coors in LF.

Probable Pitchers:

Tonight, 6:40 pm MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Edward Mujica 3-4 65 2 0 0 2 1 85.2 85 37 32 12 16 68 3.36 1.18

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Edward Mujica	3-4	65	2	0	0	2	1	85.2	85	37	32	12	16	68	3.36	1.18

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jorge De La Rosa	15-9	30	29	0	0	0	0	174.2	162	86	81	20	77	179	4.17	1.37

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Jorge De La Rosa 15-9 30 29 0 0 0 0 174.2 162 86 81 20 77 179 4.17 1.37

Mujica will be making his third career start, his first coming the last series the teams met. He has yet to pitch into the fifth inning, but that's mostly because he hasn't been stretched out after 63 big league relief appearances this year. He went over 70 pitches his last time for the first time in his career, allowing 2 ER in 4.2 IP against Arizona, a solid start after his scoreless debut vs Colorado. This will be a rematch of the first game of the last series, the game Colorado scored four times off Heath Bell in the ninth. De la Rosa dominated that start, allowing one run in seven innings, part of a September that has just been on fire for him. He has allowed just three runs total in his four September starts (3-0, 1.04 ERA). That has dropped his ERA 55 points to a season low 4.17, giving him a shot to fall below 4.00. Inconceivable! Favors: ROCKIES very strongly

Wednesday, September 23, 6:40 MDT

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Tim Stauffer 4-7 13 13 0 0 0 0 68.1 68 29 27 8 29 50 3.56 1.42

W-L G GS CG SHO SV BS IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP

2009 - Jason Marquis 15-11 35 30 2 1 0 0 201.1 199 92 86 14 69 105 3.84 1.33

Stauffer is quietly studly. He was off in his last start in Pittsburgh more than any start this year, allowing 3 runs in 3 IP. But in 13 starts this season, he has held his opponent to 3 ER or less, including his last four starts. He has been Mr. Consistency all season, with his only "blowups" being two consecutive 4 ER outings vs the Cards. The labrum surgery survivor was the 4th overall pick in 2003's draft. Marquis has gone from annoying me to outright pissing me off. The Rockies have lost 4 of his last 5 starts. His "best" start of those four came last time out, when he allowed 4 ER on 6 hits and 5 walks in 6 innings. His ERA hasn't been this high since June, when he finished that complete game shutout in Los Angeles. Favors: ROCKIES slightly

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tim Stauffer	4-7	13	13	0	0	0	0	68.1	68	29	27	8	29	50	3.56	1.42

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Marquis	15-11	35	30	2	1	0	0	201.1	199	92	86	14	69	105	3.84	1.33

Thursday, September 24, 6:40 MDT

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Clayton Richard	4-2	10	10	0	0	0	0	51.0	52	28	27	6	29	44	4.76	1.59

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Jason Hammel	9-8	31	28	1	0	0	0	163.1	188	88	79	14	41	117	4.35	1.40

Clayton Richard took a nice stride by allowing just one unearned run in his last start, on the road, but that was vs Pittsburgh. Before that he was 1-2 with a 10.69 ERA away from Petco Park with San Diego, averaging just 4.0 IP per start. How does that sit with you? Okay, so it's just four games, and he was a better road pitcher with Chicago...All things considered for the season, he has been...average. At the time of this writing, Jason Hammel is the scheduled starter for this game, though Jim Tracy has hinted he may go with some combination of Jose Contreras and Aaron Cook. Assuming it's Hammel, it would probably surprise you to know the Rockies are 10-3 in Jason Hammel's starts at Coors Field this year, but it's true. In fact, Colorado is 9-1 in his last ten at home. Sure, his ERA is north of 5 at Coors, but look at that record! Earlier on, he battling the hit-bug, but in his last eight starts, he has a WHIP of 1.14. Favors: ROCKIES moderately.

Adrian Gonzalez has five home runs this month, including one yesterday. Chase Headley, Nick Hundley, Oscar Salazar and Will Venable each have two, with the H-men hovering around .300 for the month of September. Everth Cabrera is working a modest six game hit streak. Luke Gregorson, Aaron Poreda, Joe Thatcher, Mike Adams, Sean Gallagher, Ryan Webb and Cesar Ramos have combined to allow just 3 ER over their combined 41 September appearances.

Heath Bell blew another save last night in Pittsburgh, giving him three blown saves in his last five chances. He seems to be the only reliever getting hit around these days. In fact, he is. Only he (6.00) and Adam Russell (4.05) have a Sept ERA higher than 4. Luis Rodriguez is hitless in 14 straight AB's.

Outfielders Brian Giles and Kyle Blanks are on the 15-day DL, though neither will return this season. 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff is questionable for tonight's game with a calf injury. RHP's Cha Seung Baek (forearm), Chris Young (shoulder), Shawn Hill (elbow) and Mark Worrell (elbow) are on the 60-day DL along with Cliff Floyd (shoulder).

Poll

Ryan Webb has apparently unleashed Tinkerbell's pixie dust on his teammates. Can pixie dust survive at altitude?

Of course it can you idiot...pixie dust is for flying. The Padres will sweep.

6 votes

Enough. I don't see why we're any better off than the teams the Padres have steamrolled lately. They'll take two games

10 votes

Yorvit's magic touch is stronger. Or maybe it's just our starting pitching. Rox win the series.

65 votes

You kidding? This team smells blood. There will be no mercy this time. Rox sweep

54 votes

135 votes | Poll has closed

Fantasy Baseball: NL Hidden Power Sources for 2010

raygu — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 17:24:54 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

3 months ago: San Diego Padres' Chase Headley connects for an RBI single hit off of Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Dan Haren during the fourth inning of a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2009 in San Diego. (AP Photo/Denis Poroy)

Browse more photos »

Fantasy/roto owners looking for cheap power before their drafts should look at hitters who hit alot of doubles the previous season. Many believe that true power hitters will turn those doubles into homers the next season.

Here's a look at the top doubles hitters in the NL since the All-Star break:

Player	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	KO	BA	OBP	SLG
Murphy, Daniel LF NYM	240	28	69	26	6	35	11	35	0.288	0.316	0.496
Ethier, Andre RF LA	243	40	79	24	13	45	24	41	0.325	0.402	0.601
Pujols, Albert 1B STL	227	48	72	21	15	43	38	25	0.317	0.425	0.608
Lee, Derrek 1B CHC	231	48	78	20	17	51	38	47	0.338	0.432	0.662
Headley, Chase LF SD	224	31	69	19	4	29	28	45	0.308	0.382	0.455
Sandoval, Pablo 1B SF	227	28	70	19	7	25	20	33	0.308	0.364	0.485
Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI	274	40	74	19	12	37	13	24	0.27	0.301	0.493
Holliday, Matt LF STL	237	50	86	19	16	61	22	39	0.363	0.416	0.662
Francoeur, Jeff RF NYM	244	31	75	18	7	32	10	39	0.307	0.336	0.484
Montero, Miguel C ARI	203	31	64	18	9	35	16	39	0.315	0.364	0.537

I have already written about a couple guys on this list-Pablo Sandoval and Miguel Montero. But the leader in doubles Daniel Murphy is intriguing. Murphy hit 11 HRs in 2008 in 450+ ABs, and was drafted in many leagues thi season with the thought that he could go 20-80-.300 in that Mets lineup, but he has disappointed many owners this season. Murphy has had a very good second half of the season, and I wonder if he can turn some of those doubles into HRs in 2010.

The other guy on this list that stands out is the Padres Chase Headley. He has had a very fine second half as well, with 19 doubles to go with his 4 HRs and .308 average. He could be a cheap source of power heading into 2010 drafts. He has 12 HRs this season after hitting 9 HRs in 2008, so his power is trending up. Headley's 45/28 K/BB ratio and .382 OBP says he has a good eye at the plate, and could lead to 20+ HRs in 2010.

The Diamondbacks Miguel Montero probably won't be a hidden source of power, but his .537 slugging percentage tells me that his power may be here to stay, especially playing in Bank One Ballpark.

Poll

Whcih hitter will have the bigger breakout power season in 2010?

Murphy

13 votes

Headley

17 votes

Sandoval

41 votes

Montero

12 votes

83 votes | Poll has closed

Padres 3, Rockies 2: Padres show Rockies what a walk-off loss feels like

Poseidon's Fist — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 05:36:54 -0000

More photos » by K.C. Alfred - AP

Heath Bell blew his second straight save, but unfortunately, Bell's outing proved the better of the two teams' closers.

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The Rockies have won in dramatic fashion of late, a walk-off win here, a come-from-behind victory there. It was only a matter of time before Colorado was victim of the same. Franklin Morales (3-1, 2.75) gave up an infield single in the bottom of the tenth, then walked three straight batters for his first loss of the season. By the way, his name anagrams to "Minor Flake - Snarl."

The walk-off win - literally - was fitting for a game in which hits were at a premium. The teams went 11-for-64 (.172) in the game. Barring a reliever losing control, this game had the feeling of a late-inning marathon, but Morales' 18 pitch effort (only for five strikes) proved to be the elixir to chase away insomnia at PetCo again.

Still, even in a game the Rockies lost (and they do lose games from time to time), they completed a dramatic comeback. Troy Tulowitzki hit a solo home run in the sixth to halve the deficit. In the ninth inning, Brad Hawpe blooped a single and was replaced by Dexter Fowler on the bases, who promptly stole second before Yorvit Torrealba singled on a grounder off the mound up the middle, scoring Fowler and tying the game. It was Heath Bell's second blown save in as many days, both off hits by Torrealba. Bell had not blown a save at PetCo Park until this weekend.

82 - 61

NL West: 3.0 GB

WC: 5.5 Game Lead

Streak: Lost 1

Pyth W-L: 82-61

2008: 67-76

2007: 74-69

Esmil Rogers was impressive in his MLB debut, allowing two runs on three hits and two walks in four innings, striking out four by tossing 80 pitches. Everth Cabrera led off the bottom of the first with a 30-foot swinging bunt for a single. With the speedy Rockie on first, the unnerved Rogers walked David Eckstein. Adrian Gonzalez drove in Cabrera with a single, followed by a sac fly from Chase Headley, both on flat elevated fastballs. Then Rogers put his foot down.

Rogers permitted just a leadoff single from Henry Blanco and a walk to pitcher Tim Stauffer in his last 3.2 IP, highlighted by a perfectly painted 94mph fastball on the corner for a strikeout of Oscar Salazar. He retired the last seven men he faced. If not for that cheap Cabrera hit, that complexion of that first inning completely changed, and Rogers might have been unscored upon. He was quoted after the game as having had confidence issues with his breaking ball in the first inning, which he regained in the second. That confidence was palpable, as Rogers exhibited a notable swagger on the mound.

Aside from Morales, the Rockies' bullpen was very strong. Matt Belisle, Randy Flores, Matt Daley, Joe Beimel and Rafael Betancourt threw five scoreless innings, while an Adrian Gonzalez single off Belisle in the sixth represented the only baserunner the Padres managed in innings 5-9.

The Rockies offense was decent considering the smothering confines of PetCo, which is fitting given "Rockies offense" anagrams to "Fierceness of OK." Yorvit Torrealba broke up Tim Stauffer's no-hitter in the fifth inning, but several Rockies - including Tulowitzki, Fowler, Jason Giambi and Ian Stewart - retreated to the dugout after deep flyballs that would have been home runs in a fair major league park.

This one hurts, especially given the effort of the bullpen, the gutsy performance of Esmil Rogers and the perpetual resiliancy of the offense in late innings. What is important to remember though, is that this game was San Diego's most winnable game of the series, and the Rockies will be heavily favored tomorrow. What's also important to remember is the Giants lost again tonight, keeping the Rockies 5.5 games ahead in the wild card chase.

Comment of the Night

Yorvit Torrealba.

Heath Bell’s Worst Nightmare.

by Shoemaker on Sep 12, 2009 10:25 PM MDT

Join after the jump for the fangraph and the row call.

WPA Heroes:

Yorvit Torrealba (.257) - 2-for-4, Game-tying RBI in 9th
Troy Tulowitzki (.157) - 2-for-4, HR, RBI, R
Rafael Betancourt (.143) - 1.0 IP, K
Matt Belisle (.084) - 2.0 IP, H, K

WPA Zeroes:
Franklin Morales (-.357) - 0.1 IP, H, 3 BB, R, LOSS
Carlos Gonzalez (-.212) - 0-for-5
Ian Stewart (-.166) - 1-for-3, K, BB
Seth Smith (-.151) - 0-for-4, 2 K, BB.

Row Call

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1764 comments, 56 Rowbots

Amazing Eight! Mujica tries to bust Rockies mojo, but Yorvit Torrealba rallies Colorado to win with ninth inning double

Rox Girl — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 05:20:57 -0000

More photos » by Denis Poroy - AP

Even Scrappiness couldn't beat the Rockies on Friday night.

Browse more photos »

Yorvit Torrealba's bases loaded heroics saved the night for the Colorado Rockies, as the streaking catcher continued a torrid month with a three run double off of Padres closer Heath Bell with two outs in the top of the ninth inning on Friday night to keep Colorado's win streak alive.

The Colorado Rockies got the kind of start they needed from Jorge De La Rosa after one shaky first inning, but nonetheless their offense failed to materialize as the San Diego Padres capitalized on a first inning walked in run and an effective performance from starter Edward Mujica and a handful of relievers to take a 1-0 lead on Friday night and for most of the game, it appeared they were on their way to victory. The Padres scored their run when De La Rosa loaded the bases following a one out David Eckstein double by walking Adrian Gonzalez and allowing a single to Chase Headley. JDLR then walked Oscar Salazar to push Eckstein home before regaining his composure and more or less cruising through the next six innings of his start.

The Rockies best chance to score before the ninth inning rally came when they loaded the bases with one out in the seventh inning. In the seventh inning when Todd Helton got hit by a pitch to lead off the inning and moved to third one out later when Brad Hawpe doubled. With runners in scoring position, Garrett Atkins popped out to first. Seth Smith pinch hit for Clint Barmes and was intentionally walked bringing Ryan Spilborghs (pinch hitting for Chris Iannetta) to the plate with the bases loaded and two outs. Spilborghs struck out swinging to end the threat.

In the ninth, Helton walked, Hawpe singled with one out and pinch hitter Jason Giambi also walked to load the bases for Colorado. Heath Bell struck out Matt Murton, but Torrealba came through with the bases clearing double that would give Colorado a 3-1 lead. A single by Paul Phillips scored Torrealba and pushed the lead to 4-1. Franklin Morales came on to pitch a scoreless ninth inning for the save.

With the win Colorado improved to 82-60 on the season and stayed two games behind the Dodgers, while expanding their lead over their closest competitors in the N.L wild card chase as both Florida and San Francisco lost.

Row Call and graph after the jump.

via www.fangraphs.com

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Padres Anagrams

jbox — Fri, 11 Sep 2009 22:29:12 -0000

Dex was just showing me this website that figures out an anagram for your name. I decided to do it for each of the Padres. Surprisingly in some cases the anagram actually describes the person. It's remarkable!

NAME	ANAGRAM
Jeff Moorad	MAJOR OF FED
Tom Garfinkel	GNATLIKE FORM
Kevin Towers	I'VE NETWORKS
Paul DePodesta	UP PLEASED TOAD
Grady Fuson	FURY GONADS
Bud Black	BALD BUCK
Heath Bell	HELL! BATHE
Greg Burke	KRUGER BEG
Kevin Correia	CROAKIER VEIN
Sean Gallagher	HAS LARGE ANGEL
Luke Gregerson	OK GREENER SLUG
Mat Latos	AM TOTALS
Wade LeBlanc	CLEAN BAWLED
Edward Mujica	DRAW MAD JUICE
Luis Perdomo	I'M PROUD LOSE
Aaron Poreda	POOR AND AREA
Cesar Ramos	OR MASSACRE
Clayton Richard	A CONTRARY CHILD
Adam Russell	SMALL AS RUDE
Tim Stauffer	MATURE STIFF
Joe Thatcher	HA! REJECT HOT
Ryan Webb	BRAWN BYE
Eliezer Alfonzo	RAZZLE OF ONE LIE
Henry Blanco	LYNCH ON BEAR
Nick Hundley	UNKINDLY CHE
Everth Cabrera	BRAVER CHEATER
David Eckstein	KINDEST ADVICE
Adrian Gonzalez	DAZZLING ON AREA
Edgar Gonzalez	NAG DAZZLE OGRE
Kevin Kouzmanoff	KNAVE FUNK IF ZOOM
Luis Rodriguez	GURU IDOLIZERS
Oscar Salazar	ALAS! CZAR OR AS
Anthony Gwynn Junior	JOY! NOW HURTING NANNY
Chase Headley	ELSE HEADACHY
Drew Macias	A WEIRD SCAM
Will Venable	WELL! EVIL BAN
Gaslamp Ball	SMALL BAG PAL

GM Towers: "We're going to be okay next year."

jbox — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 22:56:18 -0000

XX Sports Radio: Kevin Towers Interview (MP3) with Darren Smith

Towers on the Padres getting out of last place: "I'd be lying if I didn't say we had our eye on the Diamondbacks." The Padres are trying to feel good about themselves going into the off season.
The Pads have played .500 or better if you take out June and July. Towers personal goal was to win at least 70. It looks like the Pads might win 73. "We want to get back to winning divisions again." The Padres have made a statement within the NL.
The players want to win as many games as they can. "I assure you that clubhouse is about as good a clubhouse that I've been in, in a long time." Different guys are contributing each game. The Padres are finding out they are really liking a lot of their players. The starting pitching is the biggest weakness going forward. "We're going to be okay next year."
Towers thinks he has a grasp on his every day line up. He likes the infield the way it is. Kouz has established himself at third and had his best year from an RBI stand point. Everth Cabrera hasn't missed an inning since he's been off the DL. Eckstein does the little things right. Adrian Gonzalez is having a career year. Nick Hundley is getting better with the bat since the injury. Will Venable has been the big bright spot this season. Kyle Blanks was hitting well before the injury. Tony Gwynn has been nice.
The Pads maybe need one more bat to improve the bench. They are 2 or 3 pieces away to make it real interesting in 2010.
Venable is starting to establish power. He has struggles vs. lefties. He plays good center and right. "The more he plays the better he's going to get." Towers thinks there is untapped potential for Venable. "He might be one of those Steve Finley types."
Kouzmanoff is day to day. He'll be out at least a week. It will give Chase Headley time at third base and Oscar Salazar playing time.
Towers absolutely thinks that if they judge Kevin Kouzmanoff strictly on defense than he deserves the Gold Glove. The problem is that they tie offense to the award too. "He's probably played as good of third base... since Ken Caminiti." He's the best Towers has ever had that can handle the slow roller. Cami didn't have great range.
Towers wouldn't be surprised if the Rockies catch the Dodgers and win the NL West leaving the wild card to L.A.
Towers thinks the playoffs in the NL will consist of the Cardinals, Phillies, Rockies and Dodgers.