SB Nation - Heath Bell

Season Ticket Holder Night at Petco Park

jbox — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 05:44:48 -0000

Jon and I snuck into the Season Ticket Holder event tonight at Petco. There was a huge line at the entrance, probably 300 people or more, all wearing Padres gear. The reason for the line was that every Padre that lives in San Diego in the off season was out front shaking hands and talking to all the Season Ticket Holders. Bud Black, Heath Bell, Tony Gwynn Jr., Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Kouzmanoff, David Eckstein, Everth Cabrera and Kevin Correia.

As we approached the entrance I saw President and COO Tom Garfinkel, so I gave him a wave and in return he gave me a hearty handshake. We wished each other a Happy Holiday season and moved on through the line.

I gave Everth Cabrera a good handshake and told him I was a big fan, he thanked me. Then I saw Brett and Josh from Padres Media Relations and we exchanged pleasantries. Last we spoke of them Dex was calling Josh a "bastard" in jest because he's a Red Sox fan, I'm glad they didn't take it out on me.

Next on the left was Kevin Kouzmanoff. I'll tell you something I'm not the biggest fan of his, but he was super friendly and seemed really sincere when he thanked us for coming out and he was glad to meet us. He's got to be the most popular player on the team right now, he was cheered every time his named was mentioned tonight. People were walking around with "Keep Kouz" signs, he's a phenomenon.

Padres Employees and Players applaud the Season Ticket Holders

As we entered the gates, it was really surreal. There was just about everybody from the Front Office lining the sides of our path applauding us and thanking us for being Season Ticket Holders. I mean these employees were looking us right in the eye and saying it sincerely. I'll tell you something I was really moved. They had been doing it for about an hour and they still seemed just as genuine and thankful as if we were the first people through the gate. I felt kind of ashamed for walking through and not being a Season Ticket Holder, but I was glad that I could see it.

At that point Dex called and I'm like "I'm shaking hands with David Eckstein right now, hold on" and then he tells me that he probably won't be able to get out of work to make it down to Petco. I'm like "Sorry, I missed that last part because I was shaking hands with Adrian Gonzalez." I swear to you he has the softest hands I've ever felt. It was like spanking a new born baby's butt with cotton candy. It was that soft.

As soon as we walked in, there were people from concessions offering us free food and drinks. All the Padres gear was 40% too. We shopped for some Padres caps then grabbed some free pizza, drinks and pulled pork sandwiches.

Moorad wants to bring an All Star Game to San Diego

Once we found our seats Mark Neely came out to emcee the event. He first introduced Chairman and Owner Jeff Moorad. Moorad said a few words and I was kicking myself for not having a camera, a phone or anything to take notes with. Seriously I'm the worst blogger. He did say that his second biggest goal was to bring an All Star Game to San Diego, following only a World Series title in importance.

Moorad also mentioned that he understands how connected fans get to their favorite player, his favorite is Everth Cabrera. I wonder if that gets awkward at all. I imagine it something like Michael Scott's crush on the temp, Ryan, in The Office.

Throwback Thursday, Batting Practice Viewing and Lower Beer Prices

Next up was Tom Garfinkel, who told a joke about Hoyer wearing a jacket that made him look like Ron Burgundy. Nobody laughed. Garfinkel made some announcements: Every Thursday Game is now "Throwback Thursday" the Padres will be wearing Brown and Yellow and the Park will only be playing organ music! "No YMCA!" I was so excited I was clapping my little heart out. I remember when I had that idea back in 2006.

Garfinkel then announced that Dick Enberg would be the new TV voice of the Padres and that Enberg couldn't be at the Park tonight because he was being inducted into the Broadcaster's Hall of Fame. A video message of Enberg showed on the screen and he thanked the Padres fans and told them that he took this job because his first love was always baseball and he's always followed the Padres. He also gave us a preview of his home run call "Touch 'em all!" Jon wasn't impressed with the call.

Garfinkel also announced that Season Ticket Holders would be able to enter the park a half hour early to watch batting practice. That's what they call "added value" in the bizness.

Then to finish off on a strong note he announced to much applause that they would lower beer prices by a considerable amount, along with hot dogs, drinks other concessions.

Next up was Jed Hoyer. He came out and went through his standard schtick about how the weather is different between Boston and San Diego and that he can't believe he was standing outside without a jacket on. The crowd ate it up. We love hearing about how great San Diego is.

Bud Black came out next and said a few words. Neely introduced him as being a very even keeled manager, Mr. Steady. Black said a few words but I nodded off to the sound of his voice so I missed them.

Question and Answers

The first question was about people who didn't have Cox and couldn't view the Padres game. Garfinkel and Moorad said this issue was one of their biggest priorities and admitted that they are still under contract with Cox for another two years. They were negotiating to see if they can work something out for 2010. Moorad thinks it's ironic and sorta funny that John Moores can't watch Padres game from his home in Rancho Santa Fe.

There was another suggestion that there be a day where Season Ticket Holders can all donate their tickets to the Military so that they can have nice seats for a game. Ticket Holders said with applause that they'd like to do this. Garfinkel said he'd make it happen.

Another guy complained that there should be a net over the centerfield fence protecting the babies and children digging in the sand box beyond the fence. The Padres don't think it is necessary at this time because nobody has been hurt yet. Instead they will only get players that cannot hit home runs.

Moorad mentions Gaslamp Ball

Another lady asked a real general question about if they thought there should be a salary cap in baseball. Moorad
decides to field that question and starts off by asking if there is any media in attendance. He looks around and says "This is off the record to the media... and to Gaslamp Ball" At the mention of us, Jon starts cheering and clapping, he's the only one. I honestly didn't even hear his answer to the question because we were laughing and tickling each other at the very mention of the site. Can somebody tell us if he was in favor of the cap or not? I think he was not in favor, who knows.

Somebody else got up and said that it's nice to have Jed Hoyer because he's easy on the eyes and that his wife had a crush on him. He questioned Hoyer about what he was going to do to keep Gonzalez in San Diego? His question got the most cheers of the night. Hoyer blushed at being the focus of the crush and talked about what a great player Adrian is.

That's all I really remember but I didn't have a pen to take notes. The Padres then raffled off the players jerseys and let the fans walk out on the field. Jon and I frolicked on the grass.

I talked to Warren from Media Relations and was introduced to Padres VP Dan Migala who was friends with Dex back when he was in North Carolina. He claims that he and Hoyer invited us to get beers but that Dex never replied to his email. He was also proud to be the target of some ribbing on Gaslamp Ball.

On the way out we grabbed a ton of leftover souvenirs from the season that will probably fill my trunk for the rest of the year. Really fun night.

Heath Bell wants healthier food in the clubhouse

jbox — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 07:20:59 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

"EAT SOME WHIPPED CREAM ROOKIE!!" (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

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Remember last year when we broke the shocking news that 80% of Padres players are Overweight? Well the experts were wrong, the taunting and teasing did work and the players took notice. The players took a long hard look in the mirror and didn't like the fat bag that was staring back at them looking hungry.

The Wall Street Journal is here telling us that things are changing in the clubhouse. The Players aren't just counting their salaries, they are counting their calories! Actually they are complaining to the owners, dietitians and clubhouse attendants and whining about the food quality.

Heath Bell, a relief pitcher for the San Diego Padres, says he gets irritated on the road when teams set out buckets of cookies in the clubhouse while leaving the fruit and vegetables tucked away in refrigerators in side rooms. When teams do put fruit out, he says, they often don't even bother to clean or cut it. "If the fruit is out and set up well, I'll eat it," Mr. Bell says. "But if the cookies are there, I'm taking them. That's my downfall."

What Heath Bell is really saying is that he shouldn't have to eat a plain old banana. All he's asking is that you cut the banana and split it down the middle. When he says he'd like it "set up well" he means it should be set up with a few scoops of ice cream, a dollop of whip cream, chocolate syrup and sprinkles. Is that really asking too much? Because if it is then he's going to make you feel guilty about it while he pounds cookies into his face hole.

Astros Winter Meeting, Day Three: Links, Thoughts and Idle Speculation

davoag — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:54:48 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

Unless you have this man closing games for you, do you need a big-name closer? And yes, I was referring to Yogi...

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Look, I'm all for conventional wisdom. There is usually a reason it's conventional; it's worked for years and years. It's what people do. In baseball, it's what teams do to win. I don't mock all conventional wisdom in baseball. Some of it is very sound. One thing I can't figure out, however, is why this one fact has become so crucial to a team's offseason goals. Why do the Astros 'need' to find a closer this winter? Just because they lost their closer from last season?

Let's consider last season*. How many teams went into the 2009 season with unsettled or unproven closers? That would be 11. Here's the complete list, followed by some quick thoughts on the situations.

*This isn't the most scientific study, since I'm looking just at teams from 2009 and not expanding the data range past that. I acknowledge that. Let's move past it.

Tampa Bay (84-78) Had Percival ostensibly as closer, but pitched 10 innings in 2009 and was not used as closer much early. Still had six saves, but so did five other members of bullpen.
Toronto (75-87) Knew BJ Ryan would be back at some point, never signed anyone as replacement.
Detroit (86-77) Had a group of a couple players, sorted itself out during the season.
Seattle (85-77) Found David Aardsma off junk pile.
Oakland (75-87) Went with all-kids, Andrew Bailey emerged as closer
Florida (87-75) Went with unproven kid in Matt Lindstrom, moved to Leo Nunez halfway through season.
Washington (59-103) Went with Mike McDougal, had okay season.
St. Louis (91-71) Found Ryan Franklin after going through motions with several others
LA Dodgers (95-67) Broxton saved some games at end of 2008, but still unknown entity going into 2009
San Diego (75-87) Entered season with Heath Bell as closer, no prior experience
Arizona (70-92) Let Brandon Lyon walk,used Qualls as new closer
Atlanta (86-76) Traded for Soriano, but also had Mike Gonzalez

Obviously, there were some teams that were going to be bad no matter what. They'd made the decision to rebuild and thus, didn't invest heavily in a closer. Those teams (Washington, Oakland, San Diego) finished with losing records. The Padres found Heath Bell could be a successful closer and the A's had the same thing happen with Andrew Bailey.

The rest of the teams? 7 of the 11 had winning records. There are numerous examples of teams being killed by not having a late-inning guy. That's the 2008 Mets excuse, anyway (forcing them to spend ungodly amounts of money on JJ Putz and K-Rod). I think, however, that a large majority of teams don't necessarily need to focus on getting a closer as part of their success. Finding good players and putting them in the bullpen will work itself out. Why spend the money on a luxury item when you can win without one?

Maybe this is all rationalization since the Brewers are going to swoop in and sign both LaTroy Hawkins and Randy Wolf in the same day. I really believe that the Astros success in 2010 won't hinge on who pitches the ninth inning. Houston will be an average-to-below average team no matter who the closer is.

Onto the links:

Add the Cardinals to the list of Miguel Tejada suitors. Well, maybe not...it's just that Tony LaRussa likes him. Which he revealed for the sole purpose of driving me crazy. Would St. Louis play Tejada at shortstop or third base?
Could the Tigers end up being Jose Valverde's landing spot? The Granderson/Jackson deal saved them about 10-12 million dollars, depending on how much Jackson gets in arbitration. That puts them in perfect position to pick up a player like Valverde for the back end of the bullpen. It would also give the Astros the 19th pick in the 2010 draft. Apparently, the Nationals had interest but pulled back due to his cost. Did Valverde's agent overestimate his market?
Here's a nice defense of the Pudge Rodriguez signing. While I agree the human aspect of baseball decisions is often minimized by everyone, this seems a bit much. For one, it was widely reported when Pudge joined the Astros that he really doesn't prepare for the mental side of the game very well and is mostly concerned with hitting. Sure, he may provide moral support out there on the mound, but don't look for him to tell Strasberg what kind of pitches this guy doesn't want to see.Aaron Gleeman seems to agree with me, too.
I don't know what's more disturbing; that the White Sox could beat us out for Putz's services (and that that would be considered a bad thing) or that Matt Thornton uses the term 'bromance.' I have nothing more to say.
One of the better Twitter feeds during the Winter Meetings has been Will Carroll's. The Baseball Prospectus writer was profiled by his hometown newspaper and has apparently been one of the stars of the Indianapolis show. As someone who purchased his Carroll Guide to Sports Injuries, just so I could sound smart when I talk about Lis Franc-type injuries, I am very appreciative he's in the business.
Finally, here's a little prospect talk for those minor league nuts in the audience:
Some data on player speeds out of the box in the Arizona Fall League. The guys at Project Prospect only timed Castro twice and he fell into the below-average category, but he may have suffered the same fate as Buster Posey: fatigue. From what I'd heard to that point, Castro should have average speed in the majors.
We were recently contact by a site with some great prospect video (though it is a pay site). One of the profiles is on Henry Villar. Some very good video here with lots of pitches thrown. I didn't see any closeups from the side to tell how his arm mechanics looked, but could see some other things. His delivery is relatively smooth, but the fact he falls off to the first base side so heavily means it might not be as repeatable as you'd like. He's also not in great fielding position when he finishes. His arm slot doesn't look to put too much stress on his delivery and for a hard thrower, he certainly has a free-and-easy motion. Not too many warning signs for injury down the road.
Here's a video of Ross Seaton. I have to say, this was pretty encouraging. While Seaton did struggle with command issues in this particular start, it was a TON of video on his delivery. I can see why scouts would like him; Seaton has a very smooth delivery throughout. He lands in a balanced position, it's not too violent of an arm motion. His arm slot seems comfortable, though he does tend to miss the same slot sometimes. His elbow does not seem to fly forward before the ball and he seems perfectly balanced to field after the play. In fact, the end of his delivery reminds me a little of Greg Maddux. Now, he definitely didn't show Maddux-like control, but if his effortless delivery can really bring 92-93 MPH heat? He's a lot more interesting. Here's my end of the season scouting effort on Seaton, based on his numbers.
There's also video of Jordan Lyles on Baseball Intellect, but I won't bore you any more with prospect talk. At first blush, it's some of the longest video I've seen on prospects and a good source for first-hand scouting reports.

Around the Mission: Everybody wants Kevin Kouzmanoff Edition

Dex — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 17:41:30 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

No joke. The Yankees just offered me a player to be named later in exchange for this photo of Kevin "Everybody Wants" Kouzmanoff.(AP Photo/Ben Margot)

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In links today, everybody is interested in Kevin Kouzmanoff. I mean bad. They want him so bad. And by "everybody", I mean kdukat and what's left of the Gaslamp Ball Girls. Hahahahaha...

No, I'm just kidding. Everybody wants Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Winter Meetings Rumor Update
Would a Geovany Soto-Heath Bell deal make sense for both sides? We check in with CBSSports.com’s Scott Miller from Indianapolis for the latest rumors on the Padres, Bell, Adrian Gonzalez, Milton Bradley, the Angels, Roy Halladay, Vlad, and more
Several clubs interested in Kouzmanoff | padres.com: News
Kevin Kouzmanoff, one of four prominent Padres who are eligible for arbitration and due a substantial raise, has apparently drawn the interest of several teams at the Winter Meetings.
Padres 3rd baseman Kouzmanoff creating a buzz - Sports - SignOnSanDiego.com
"We’re in fine shape financially at this point," he said. "Any moves will be made to try to make the team better."
The Schmuck Stops Here: Orioles: The third man - Some say it’s better to keep your mouth shut and appear stupid than open it and remove all doubt. I disagree. - baltimoresun.com
the Orioles also have expressed interest in San Diego Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff
Correia’s days may be numbered - Sports - SignOnSanDiego.com
“They made an offer to me, but it was obviously below the arbitration value,” said Correia. “I could still end up playing here. And this is where I want to play. The door is not closed.”
PADRES: Club talks Correia, Kouzmanoff at winter meetings
"Nothing's final, but we're in the process of talking about a deal," Axelrod said by phone. "The proposal was not jumped at, but we'll talk again. ... Kevin's choice is to stay in San Diego for a variety of reasons. The only reason (he'd leave) would be if he was not compensated appropriately."

MLB Trade Rumors: Winter Meetings Coverage Begins Monday

raygu — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 14:00:17 -0000

by Aaron J. Latham - AP

2 months ago: San Diego Padres' David Eckstein, left, celebrates with teammate Adrian Gonzalez, right, after they scored on Gonzalez's home run in the fourth inning of a baseball game against the Arizona Diamondbacks Sunday, Sept. 27, 2009 in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Aaron J. Latham)

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We at Fake Teams will be covering the trades and signings that occur at the Winter Meetings that start today in Indianapolis. We will address the fantasy impact of the trades and signings that occur this week and throughout the offseason. The biggest name discussed at the Winter Meetings will be the Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay.

Some of the rumored deals could involve the following players changing uniforms:

Steve Henson from Yahoo Sports tweeted the following last night:

The Dodgers have 3-4 teams interested in $$ Juan Pierre and a 3-team deal is being explored to get L.A. a bad-contract starter in return.
The "bad contract" starter the Dodgers might get for Juan Pierre would not be Derek Lowe, a source said. That bridge has burned.

It appears the Yankees and Red Sox are the favorites for Roy Halladay. Halladay to the Yankees for a package of Jesus Montero and Phil Hughes? Halladay to the Red Sox for Clay Buchholz and Josh Reddick? Halladay to the Phils for J.A. Happ and Michael Taylor? The Giants may make sense for Dan Uggla, but where would he play with Freddy Sanchez at second? I'd be shocked if Adrian Gonzalez isn't dealt to the Red Sox now that former Sox Jed Hoyer is the new GM in San Diego. Josh Willingham in Atlanta makes sense.

Would the rumored Milton Bradley-Pat Burrell deal result in one of the worst outfields in the majors? How can Pat Burrell and Alfonso Soriano play in the same outfield? Pierre makes sense in St. Louis, Chicago and Cincinnati, especially with Dusty Baker managing the Reds. Pierre for Arroyo??

Poll

Who is more likely to get traded during the Winter Meetings this week?

Padres Award Celebration Auction Items

jbox — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 22:20:00 -0000

Friar John's Blog: Padres Award Celebration Special Auction

The Padres Award Celebration is today at the Hall of Champions you could have bought a ticket to the lunch for $75 dollars or 10 tickets for $750. Wow, nice of the Padres to give a group discount. In case you were wondering you could also have bought a special 2 ticket combo for $150 or the third wheel ticket package for $225.

Here's some of the auction items available for fans to bid on:

Dinner with Jed Hoyer: Hoyer may be engaged but you can play the part of Robert Redford and Jed Hoyer can be your Demi Moore in this Indecent Proposal.
One-on-One Pitching Lessons with Heath Bell: Learn how to over eat, feud with ESPN and promote Wii Fit while playing catch in the Padres bullpen.
Hitting Lessons with Kevin Kouzmanoff: Bahahahah! That's rich. I'd bid on this if they were "Hitting Lessons FOR Kevin Kouzmanoff"
General Manger for the Day: Three innings in the booth with Hoyer. Since when is three innings a day?
Lunch with Bud Black: If this was "Bud Black reads you a bedtime story and tucks you in" then I know insomniacs the world over would bid.
Honorary Groundskeeper: Isn't this a job they should be paying you for? The Padres should have fans bid on Honorary Bathroom Cleaner while they are at it.
Little Star Experience: This could be your child's big break, but not really.
Salute to the Champions: No Padres will be in attendance.
A Game-Used Base from the 2006 NLDS: Good chance Albert Pujols stepped on it... Even better chance no Padres stepped on it.
Jake Peavy's Clubhouse Chair: Perfect for sniffing.
Taylor Guitar Signed by 2008 Padres: Now you can strum along with the non-stop Gary Glitter songs at Petco Park.

Heath Bell hopes that new GM Hoyer isn't a puppet like Kevin Towers

jbox — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 18:48:23 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

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Boston Herald

I hope (Hoyer) has got full rein. I hope he does. I know (former GM) Kevin Towers didn’t always have it. He’d want to do something and the CEO wouldn’t always sign off on it.

"I’d like to see the team say, ‘Here’s your allowance, $40 million, $50 million, $80 million, spend it on what you want.’ Kevin Towers, the last couple of years, it didn’t seem like he could always do what he wanted. He was kind of a puppet."

You know what other closer wanted to know the direction of Padres about this time last year? Trevor Hoffman. We all saw what happened to him. Nobody questions the direction of this club and gets away with it.

Heath Bell is always saying exactly what's on his mind. Calling Padres' CEOs puppeteers, admittedly puppeteers that gave him his big break and the closer job.

I remember during lunch in High School I did something similar. This girl was walking by and I said "Hey Muppet!" Dex looks at me all horrified and says "Dude you can't call her Muppet!"

"Why not? That's what everybody calls her."

"They call her that behind her back because they think she looks like a muppet!"

"Huh, now that you mention it, I can see the resemblance."

See it's practically the same thing, me and Heath Bell two peas in a pod.

via randomlittleworld.com

Bill James 2010 Projections: Padres Pitchers

Dex — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 16:35:11 -0000

More photos » by Lenny Ignelzi - AP

You want to know how Heath Bell lost so much body mass? It be called Wii Fit Plus. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)

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I've been sitting on the rest of these projections for the Padres because it's a pain in the ass to transcribe the PDF over to a table in HTML. Rather than do that, I'll just upload the set of projections from the Bill James Handbook and we can talk about them in a civilized manner here.

I will also note that, after reading through the book itself, it's tough to judge it just based on the projections. They mention especially with pitchers how difficult (and pointless) it is to try to project something like wins or ERA considering how many things beyond the pitchers' control goes into these things.

Also, if you're gonna buy the book, here's a link to Amazon.

Now some notes on the projections:

Heath Bell is projected to lead the league in saves yet again. Also projected to mention how the new Wii Fit Plus will allow him to drink that much more beer while maintaining his svelte physique.
Kevin Correia is projected to lead the team in wins with 11. Clayton Richard follows with 9. To be fair, there aren't a whole lot of Padres pitchers even projected to start games for us.
Luke Gregerson is projected to do well again. Maybe a holdover closer if we can get value for Heath Bell? Hmmmmm?

In any case, it will be good to revisit these numbers once we start settling in a bit as to who our pitchers will be, but if that happens, then we won't be able to transfer over the ERA and W/L projections, so maybe it'll be a little bit hopeless.

(Also, yes. This is another post with an Amazon link. I'm trying to save for the holiday season.)

SB Nation NL Cy Young goes to Tim Lincecum

Dex — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:51:07 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Chiu - AP

"I'm so high right now. I'm so high and I'm really wishing I had some lumpia. And some more weed. What's this H1N1 that everybody's snorting these days? Is that a drug like marijuana? I love marijuana." (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

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SB Nation voted on all the traditional end of year awards and this year's winner is Tim Lincecum. Chris Carpenter came in second. I was admittedly apathetic this season and didn't cast a vote, but, in case you were wondering, I would've cast a vote for Heath Bell. I probably would've also voted for Lincecum because he's half-filipino, but that was before the marijuana incident made me realize that he's no better than Barry Bonds or your typical heroin addict lying in a Skid Row gutter. MARIJUANA IS A GATEWAY DRUG!

The rest of the voting after the jump...

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	18	13	-	129
2	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	7	64
3	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	4	4	10	42
4	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	5	7	22
5	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	3	4	13
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	1	1	4
7	Cliff Lee	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	1	1
8	Jair Jurrjens	Atlanta Braves	-	-	1	1

Free Agent Profile: Jose Valverde

davoag — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Valverde found out how much money he could save with Geico...

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I recently read these two posts on Sabernomics by JC Bradbury about free agency. They got me thinking about how the Astros crop of free agents fits into the market, what kinds of deals comparable players got last season and what we could expect the (former) hometown boys to get this winter. Thus, another mini-series of posts on free agency.

[Sidenote 1: It's also worth noting that our first profile, Valverde, plays a position where the number of players doesn't necessarily correspond to openings on teams. Relievers can market themselves as closers without having vacated that position, thus making for a possibly over-glutted market where some guys will have to sign for significantly less as setup men]

Just the other day, I argued that the Astros should not offer Jose Valverde arbitration. My thinking was that Houston would be on the hook for way too much money, since Valverde would most likely accept the arbitration offer to get a big payday (albeit a one-year payday).

This may or may not be a popular opinion around these parts, so I thought we could look at the 2008 offseason to see what kind of contracts closer got. I ran down the biggies, the Type A's and a few other contracts that are similar to Valverde's numbers. For reference, El Papa Grande earned 8 million in 2009 and pitched 54 1/3 innings, striking out 56 and walking 21. Valverde converted 25 of 29 save opportunities and gave up five home runs. FanGraphs puts his value at a solid 3 million.

[Sidenote 2: I am skeptical of how WAR rates relievers, but after combing through some of this data, it looks like it comes close to nailing down closers, at least. Take that for what it's worth in the rest of this article]

The Comparables

Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, New York Mets

Contract Details: 3 years, 37 million (2m bonus, 09-8.5m, 10-11.5m, 11, 11.5m, 12-17.5m option)

Notes: K-Rod was not worth his contract last season, earning a value of just 1.5 million. Though relievers are typically devalued in WAR, I found that this wasn't necessarily the case with closers. Plenty of the contemporaries on this list had good, valuable seasons in the past. For instance, K-Rod was worth 17 million from 2007 to 2008. Unfortunately, he picked the wrong year to get injured. This contract would appear to be the upper range of Valverde's money.

Kerry Wood, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Contract Details: 2 years, 20.5 million (09-10m, 10-10.5m, 11-11m option)

Notes: Wood was worth 1.9 million in 2009 after totaling 10 million in value the previous season. His contract seemed to be in line with that, though his performance didn't suggest it would continue. It should be noted that only one reliever got a three-year deal. The rest had to settle for two-year deals or one-year fliers.

Brian Fuentes, LHP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Contract Details: 2 years, 17.5 million (09-8.5m, 10-9m, 11-9m option)

Notes: This would appear to be the kind of deal that makes sense for Valverde. Fuentes marked one of the few Type A closers that was both offered arbitration and signed with a team in the offseason. We'll get to a couple other examples in a minute, but for now, let's say Fuentes did much better n 2008 than Valverde did last season, but still couldn't land a deal longer than two years. His almost 9 million average is just above what Valverde earned in 2009, and would certainly be a starting place for any arbitration discussion.

The Other Type A's

Trevor Hoffman, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Contract Details: 1 year, 6 million (re-signed for 1 year, 8 million with an '11 option of 7 million)

Notes: Hoffman shows the other side of the coin for Valverde. The Padres did not offer Hoffman arbitration heading into last offseason, meaning a team would not have to give up draft picks to sign him. Despite coming off an injury-plagued season, the Brewers gave Hoffman a 6 million dollar tryout in 2009. The venerable saves champ was worth 6.7 million last season, so he performed to the contract and was rewarded with another one year deal.

Juan Cruz, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.25m, 10-3.25m, 11-4m option)

Notes: Cruz was a surprise sign as a Type A free agent, since he had the heaviest cost, yet wasn't a closer. Of course, he was not good at all in 50 relief innings for the Royals this season, but this is Dayton Moore we're talking about. He'll do anything. As the quirkiest signing of last winter, Cruz fits right in. How much his situation will impact Valverde's is less clear. Cruz wasn't used the same way and didn't have the same relative value. Still, he got a contract in line with many middle relievers that will form the base of the reliever market.

The Outlier

Kyle Farnsworth, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 9.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.5m, 11-5.25m option)

Notes: What did I say about Moore? He gave a 9.5 million dollar contract to Kyle Farnsworth, he of the ever-straight 150 MPH fastball. Of course, Trey Hillman felt obliged to use him in bizarre situations, confounding guys like Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski. Farnsworth probably earned more money last season than he should have, but he was still worth 3 million, according to FanGraphs. That's also what Valverde was worth, as a point of reference.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Ryan Franklin, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6.5 million (signed Sept. 1, 2009)

Notes: Franklin saved 38 games for the Cardinals in 2009, but will be heading into his Age 37 season. The Cardinals wisely locked him up for a reasonable 6.5 million over two seasons. That significantly lowers the salary precedent for a guy like Valverde, though, as his agent will have to work off a contract like Soria's to get comparable numbers.

Heath Bell, RHP, San Diego Padres

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million (2008)

Notes: Bell will be due a big raise in 2010, since he led the NL with 42 saves in 2009. Heading into another year of arbitration, the Padres may decide a closer is not a luxury they're willing to splurge on, making Bell tradeable. I'd expect him to fetch anywhere between 4-6 million in arbitration, so that's the number a team's looking at if they go and get Bell. That also means Bell would be that much cheaper than a guy like Valverde on the open market.

Forecast for Valverde

El Papa Grande is one of nine different pitchers who could market themselves as closers this offseason, including Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyons. Now, most people would argue that Valverde is the best of the crop, but that also carries a price. We can surmise from last year's market that even Valverde will not get more than a three year deal, and that his ceiling is probably around 10 million. Coming off an injury plagued season, though, means his market will be compressed slightly. Add to that the more reasonable deals signed by Joakim Soria (3 years, 8.75 million) and Franklin, and Valverde will be lucky to get 8m per season. In arbitration, though? The Astros risk paying him anywhere from 3 million to 11 million next season if they offer arb. and he accepts. Given that Wade will have around 15-17 million to work with, is it worth eating up that much of the budget for a closer?

My assumption is the Astros will decline to offer him arbitration and he will sign a two year deal for somewhere around 18 million, with a possible third year option for 10 million. I won't guess who'd give him that contract, but looking at both the market and last year's offseason, those numbers seem right.