SB Nation - David DeJesus

How Dayton Moore Can Have a Comeback Year

royalsreview — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:23:50 -0000

The Bravest Way to put on a jersey. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

After an intriguing beginning to his tenure as the General Manager of the Royals, Dayton Moore floundered in 2008 and 2009. Good moves started to give way to bizarre ones, and by the end of 2009, at least at the Major League level, Moore looked like one of the more clueless transaction hounds in the business. Dealing with criticism for the first time in his professional life, Moore, and the rest of his leadership team adopted a bunker mentality that only made them look worse. His in-season 2009 moves look almost vindictive: I will keep finding out-machines who suck defensively and there's nothing you can do about it!

Still, I don't know if Dayton Moore is destined to succeed or fail as the GM of the Royals. He played a large part in making the 2008-9 Royals bad and he's setup the 2010 Royals to be a bad team as well. Moreover, his refusal to actually rebuild on a large scale has pushed back the timeline for true contention in Kansas City. All of that being said, he did inherit a franchise in shambles and since he has the support of ownership, he still has time to have long-term success. It just won't happen soon.

But if the Royals are ever going to win under Moore, and we're talking 2011-13 here, the comeback needs to start now. Organizationally, the Royals can't have another lost year. Here's how Moore can start to turn it around:

Have a Relatively Non-Horrible Winter on the Free Agent Market: This one has already been partially shot by the horrific Jason Kendall signing, a move which made the Royals older, worse, more expensive. Yes, the Kendall signing was a moderate financial outlay, and yes, this is what nearly all baseball teams do. However, the Royals are not a large market or even middle market team. They are in the 28th-30th range. The pointless millions you spend on the Kendalls & Farnsworths of the world add up, and pretty soon you're making bad baseball decisions because you need to get under some arbitrary payroll number. Like, oh look, they did with the catching situation. The circle of horribleness is completed. So step one of this off-season needs to be no more pointless pickups with wasted millions and years tied up.
Be Honest About Where the Team Is: Dayton needs to go outside of the organization and have a few honest conversations with "baseball men" that he trusts. People that can be honest with him. He needs to talk to people about if the Royals can compete in 2011. If the Royals can compete in 2012. Where the rest of the division is going. Etc. There's no shortage of agreement within the organization about two things: it was terrible when they took over and everyone is currently doing a great job. They need to move beyond that now. They need to figure out where they are. They need a new finish line, other than "it sucks here, we've got work to do".
Actually Commit to the Rebuild: My hunch is, the advice will, or would, lead to one conclusion: the Royals have work to do. I love Zack Greinke, but the Royals can't base their decisions around keeping him happy or not wasting him in his prime. He's going to be around for awhile, so we can punt on 2010. I think, for the most part, the Royals have done this, although we can't be completely sure for the next few weeks. The Royals don't have to do a complete teardown, as they actually have some pieces in place, but they need to be aggressive in exploring trade possibilities involving Gil Meche, Joakim Soria, David DeJesus, Alberto Callaspo, etc. They can also go the other way, and trade one of their prospects for a soon-to-be-ready young Major Leaguer with numerous controlled-years remaining. The mindset needs to change. They need to view what they currently have as a way of getting somewhere better, not as part of some masterplan already coming together. If Billy Butler has a monster first half, shop him (he's already burned through a ton of service time and handles the easiest to fill position).
Lean on Your Skills: Dayton earned a sterling reputation as a scouting and player development guy. We know what he is. He's not a guy that's going to embrace new ideas, different voices. He's not going to diversify his portfolio. Which sucks, but it is what it is. In that case, he needs to go all in with what he does well: scouting and evaluating young players. Embrace that part of his identity and stop looking for the next Gil Meche signing. Moreover, this is also the identity of his top assistants. So go for it. Prove to us you're the best evaluators of young studs and overlooked aces around. To be honest, Dayton Moore has been an absolute disaster involving transactions at the Major League level. In a manner of speaking, he needs to gas up the rental car and hit the sandlot circuit again. He needs to spend less time enacting bizarre fantasies involving the Ross Gloads and Willie Bloomquists of the world. We get it: those guys are great and help you win and all the rest. Except they don't and we keep losing. If Dayton is the guy we think we hired, he remains a great option to aggressively rebuild the team by scouting amateur and minor league talent. We need that guy back.
Strengthen Your Standing in the Community: I use "community" broadly here: the baseball community, the Kansas City community, your relationships inside the organization. If this Dayton Moore thing is going to work at all, then ownership has to remain committed to being the Yankees of the amateur spending market. And much of that goes back to reputation and belief. To this point, against a lot of evidence to the contrary, they've believed in Dayton Moore. Will that last forever? To be blunt, 2009 sucked: the Royals sucked and the leadership team repeatedly came across as petty, vindictive, & paranoid. The local and national baseball media began to be much more critical of the Royals and a lot of the benefit of the doubt and goodwill Moore earned withered away. The Royals are in the entertainment business, and if the team continues to behave in the way it has over the last year, things are going to get a lot worse. At a certain point, the perception amongst the fans and the media gets so negative that the environment becomes too toxic to continue. I'm not saying Dayton Moore needs to hire Nate Silver. I'm not saying that Rany should throw out the first pitch on Opening Day. Let's start small and admit just one mistake. One. Let's work on restoring normal relations with the local media. Stop lecturing everyone. Stop saying dumb things. Basically, disappear for months at a time, and when you emerge, be engaging and humble rather than holier than thou. Dayton Moore needs Joe Posnanski back on his side. Ownership does not want to be a national joke, which is why they hired Moore. It's somewhat amazing that Moore himself seems to have lost sight of this. At present, a huge percentage of whatever success the Royals have had drafting lies at the credit of ownership, who has spent money. If they lose faith in Moore's ability to execute and roll back the budget, the goose is cooked.

There's another bullet point that we could add that would be something like Have Another Good Draft, but really, I think that's self-evident. Likewise, the Royal system needs something of a comeback year. That one isn't so much self-evident, as perhaps not entirely in Dayton's hands at this point. The little decisions that add up to developing players... well, the Royals need to hit a home run in 2010.

As you can see, many of these steps are inter-related. The ironic thing is, if the Royals were to fire Dayton Moore, someone like Dayton Moore would be precisely the kind of person they would be looking at to replace him.

The comeback needs to start now.

Wainwright for Carpenter, Carpenter for Wainwright, Somebody for DeJesus

DanUpBaby — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 11:00:33 -0000

At the P-D they're taking good advantage of the Cardinals' dual Cy Young candidates, as they've gotten both Wainwright and Carpenter on record as being Spartacus. (I would have liked one more, maybe PINEIRO: Why Joel Pineiro should win the Cy Young.)

For my money Wainwright's take on Carpenter is more interesting:

But we should talk about this year. This year he just out-executed everybody. If he wouldn't have lost that time because of injury, would we even be talking about this? [...] When you're facing Chris Carpenter, the opposing pitcher had to throw a shutout, or he didn't have a chance. The opposing team, I have to believe, probably went into the game against Chris Carpenter preparing to be shut out.[...]

No one has taught me more than Chris Carpenter. You know the story. After a start this year, Chris pulls me in to look at some video - old film, new film, all of it. He said my arm slot was 3 or 4 inches different, and the next day we're playing catch and with each throw he's telling me if it's right. Nope. Yep. Nope. Nope. Yep. Not just anybody can do that, can see from 60 feet a difference of less than 5 inches in every throw. After that, my fastball had movement. I got my slider back. I had confidence in my pitches.

If you want to make an argument for team chemistry being important, for good clubhouse guys making a difference, I think this is the one to make, not the Affable Kevin Millar Defense. Your dopey designated hitter giving somebody the hot-foot to Loosen Things Up probably won't make a significant difference in the standings or the clubhouse. (As is the case with matters of attendance, it's always seemed to me that the difference between a good clubhouse and a tense clubhouse, at least as far as the fans and reporters are able to tell, is how often the team's winning.)

But I can see the value in superstars who happen to be interested in and preternaturally gifted at things often left to the coaches. It's one thing if Dave Duncan tells you your arm slot is different; it's another if Chris Carpenter, who is touching 96 miles per hour right now, at this very moment, says so while you're both loosening up.

There was a brief discussion in Saturday's post about David DeJesus as a possible trade target, should the Cardinals not go the SIGN MATT HOLLIDAY‽ route. It's tough to suggest parting with some faberge eggs with all that money just lying around, but DeJesus is an interesting player, and worth the bullet point treatment.

It's interesting that Daryl Jones came up as a possible trade chit, because DeJesus seems like a reasonable facsimile of the player we hope DJ Tools might become. At his best he hits .290 to .300, with just enough power to avoid the empty-average tag and just enough walks to be a guy with good plate discipline. He can play center field, but he's not great at it, which makes him a defensive asset in a corner. If you have a full outfield, this kind of guy is a tweener; if you don't, he's a cheap and effective fix at either position. The major difference between DeJesus and DaJones?
David DeJesus should never try to steal a base again. This is a list, grabbed from the awesome new Baseball Reference PI, of the worst base part-time base stealers (i.e. less than 100 total) since 2000.

Rk	Player	CS	SB
1	Melvin Mora	52	89
2	Cesar Izturis	47	98
3	Craig Counsell	46	95
4	Mark Kotsay	46	74
5	Carlos Guillen	44	70
6	Brad Wilkerson	43	53
7	Juan Encarnacion	42	84
8	Derrek Lee	41	94
9	Jacque Jones	41	79
10	David DeJesus	40	44

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Only long-time sabermetric hero Brad Wilkerson can compete with DeJesus on this list; everyone else has stolen at least 70 bases. In his career, according to Bill James Online, David DeJesus has cost the Royals 36 bases with his nose for the CS. So here are two ways the Cardinals could maximize their hypothetical DeJesus investment:

Never let him steal a base, ever. If he tries to steal a base, or even start jogging to second before the Umpire explicitly gives the base on balls sign to Albert Pujols, fire him. Immediately.
Take the Carpenter-Wainwright lesson at face value and have Yadier Molina and Albert Pujols (a combined 25-7 in 2009) show him that there's something wrong with his—his leg slot?

Impressively enough, in spite of all that base-stealing incompetence, he's been a net-positive baserunner over the course of his career. Why? According to BJO, it's because from 2005 to 2007 he was among the best baserunners in the American League, worth +55 bases. Since then he's been -11, which could have any number of explanations: he might be unmotivated in Kansas City, where they once tried to give his job to Joey Gathright; he might just have peaked early, having come, now, toward his age 30 season; and the wear and tear of his numerous small injuries might be getting to him. But the fact remains that at one point in the near past DeJesus was providing the Royals with runs in every possible overlooked area: he got on base relatively often, he played above-average defense, and he ran like the wind. That's a useful, undervalued player, which explains why the Royals have had half a mind to trade him from the moment he was called up.

GM Meetings Day 2: Open Thread

Jesse — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 15:34:55 -0000

Check back periodically for updates...

4:00 pm: Afternoon updates from Joe C.

Congrats to Joe Mauer, who wins his second Gold Glove. Well deserved.
Apparently the GM's are expected to discuss intant replay? I had no idea. At any rate it hasn't been discussed yet.
Bonser, Neshek and Slowey have been reinstated from the 60-day DL.
Joe promises more tonight.

12:45 pm: Some news from around the league

It sounds like Jason Varitek will pick up his part of the option to stay with the Red Sox, which will be a favor to teams across the American League if he continues to hit like he has the last two seasons. Which he probably will. In related news, Tim Wakefield is never going to stop pitching. NEVER.
If the Twins want to put together a package for Roy Halladay to really make a run with an Ace in hand for 2010, it will have to be a package of "quality over quantity". Sorry, Cmath.
Lunch time trade question: would you trade Jesse Crain and Delmon Young to the Royals for David DeJesus? Is it a realistic scenario?

9:30 am: Catching up on the highlights from yesterday

• Carl Pavano wouldn’t mind sticking with the Twins as long as the money is right. Quotes from his agent, Tom O’Connell, imply that Pavano won’t settle for another contract asking for his client to re-establish himself. If he’d still be willing to take an incentive-laden contract at a reasonable price (say something like one year, $5 million with $500K for reaching 100, 125, 150, 175 and 200 innings) with an option for a second year, I’d do that. He’s a Type-B free agent, but I’m not sure he’d make more than that taking the arbitration route (which the Twins are sure to offer).
• Twins General Manager Bill Smith has mentioned there will be interest in free agent starting pitchers during the off-season. I have to believe that only three spots (Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Kevin Slowey) are locked down.
• It sounds like Ron Gardenhire wouldn’t mind bringin back Orlando Cabrera as the team’s second baseman next season, but it seems highly unlikely the front office would follow through on that.
• The Orioles claimed Armando Gabino off waivers.
• Justin Huber cleared waivers, paving the way for his possible return to Rochester (or the Twins) in 2010.
• Juan Morillo has been added to the 40-man roster, bringing the current tally to 33 (not including 60-day DL guys Boof Bonser, Pat Neshek and Kevin Slowey, or impending free agents Ron Mahay, Mike Redmond, Joe Crede, Pavano and Cabrera).
• Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors has posted his yearly series where he guesses where the top 50 free agents will end up. He thinks Adrian Beltre (number nine on his list) will end up in Minnesota.
• Before the Twins snapped up J.J. Hardy, a number of other teams had been in contact with the Brewers, including the Red Sox, Reds and Blue Jays.

MLB Trade Rumors: On the Beat with John Perrotto Version

raygu — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 14:00:37 -0000

by Eric Risberg - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Chad Billingsley takes a break on the mound after the San Francisco Giants scored their third run in the fourth inning of a baseball game in San Francisco, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009. San Francisco won the game 7-2; Billingsley was the losing pitcher. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)

View full size photo »

Every Sunday, John Perrotto from Baseball Prospectus puts out an article talking about possible trade rumors and signings, along with analysis of the goings on around baseball. Yesterday's article was chock full of names who could be available in trade talks this offseason, with some suprise names.

Let's take a look after the jump:

Here is a list of names who could be available in trade talks per Perrotto:

Chad Billingsley Kerry Wood

Dave Bush Bobby Jenks

Jeremy Guthrie Pat Burrell

Adrian Gonzalez Nelson Cruz

Heath Bell Ryan Ludwick

Glen Perkins Dan Uggla

Kenshin Kawakami Juan Pierre

Derek Lowe Ryan Doumit

Javier Vazquez Dioner Navarro

Carlos Zambrano Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Matt Capps Geovany Soto

Christian Guzman Elijah Dukes

Corey Hart David Dejesus

Poll

What name on the Perrotto list is most surprising?

Ryan Ludwick

39 votes

Geovany Soto

61 votes

Chad Billingsley

116 votes

Ryan Doumit

17 votes

233 votes | Poll has closed

Hunter Pence and the Astros Outfield Defense

davoag — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 16:25:47 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Congrats to the second-best right fielder in the majors.

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Don't know if you noticed, but Hunter Pence was a close second to Ichiro in the third annual Fielding Bible Awards, which were announced Monday. It was a nice finish for Pence, who has worked hard to turn himself into a very capable right fielder. Since Michael Bourn also finished in the top five in center field, it gives the Astros two premier defenders patrolling the vast expanses at MMP.

Still, that leaves one very big hole in left. Here is a snapshot of the most interesting section of votes to me, the left fielders. Note that Carlos Lee got three votes from his mother, his agent and his horse. If you look at the top vote-getters, though, something very interesting stands out. The winner, Carl Crawford, spent the majority of his minor league games in center field. David DeJesus, Nyjer Morgan, Lance Nix, Juan Pierre and Chris Dickerson all played the majority of their games in center field. Why does this matter? Well, I'll tell you after the jump...

So, everyone knows Carlos Lee isn't the best fielder. He looks slow, sometimes takes bad angles and can look disinterested at times. However, it's interesting to note that Lee had his highest total of outfield assists since 2004 last season with nine. The problem with Lee isn't his instincts or his arm, it's his range.

There's a reason so many former center fielders topped the Fielding Bible list, and I would say it's the same reason why people decry Derek Jeter as a Gold Glove shortstop, even though he may make fewer errors than a Troy Tulowitzki. Center fielders just have more range than your average left fielder. They're (generally) faster and have experience taking better breaks on the ball. Ideally, they have a decent arm, but that's not really necessary. This all plays very well in left field, a position where teams are wont to dump guys who can't play at first. Is hitting really more important than outfield defense, though?

Way back in September, I saw a couple of posts from Joe Posnanski on his blog that got me thinking about this. This first one brought up the idea of team's thinking completely outside the box about things, like making the best defense possible, regardless of how they hit. Would the runs you save equal the runs you give up? This follow-up post talks about whether there SHOULD be a separate Gold Glove for left fielders. Is it an important enough position to reward the best fielder there, or is it a hotbed of guys who couldn't hack it somewhere else?

I saved both of these posts, because it immediately made me think of the Astros minor league teams. For instance, the Express would routinely trot out an outfield with one of the best fielders in the minors, Yordanny Ramirez, and two players who have been center fielders in the past (Brian Bogusevic and Reggie Abercrombie). The same went for Corpus, where Collin DeLome, Josh Flores and Mitch Einertson all shared the outfield together (before Flores got hurt again) and all had played center at times in the past. Add to that another talented outfield in Lancaster of J.B. Shuck, Jon Gaston and T.J. Steele who could all play center. That's nine athletic players the Astros can and did move around all three outfield spots this season. Is the organization's philosophy changing? I think it has under Ed Wade and Bobby Heck.

It seems that the Astros will have more than enough players to fill the hole once Lee departs for greener pastures (in however many years that will take). Will it make them better as a team? Certainly Brian Bogusevic isn't the hitter Lee is, but he has a little pop, some speed on the bases and has a great arm in the outfield. Same goes for Collin DeLome, who's maybe not as athletic as Bogey, but definitely has more home-run potential. Either of these guys could start next season and probably be an upgrade over the sure-and-steady bat of Lee.

Whether this philosophy will work is another story, but for now, it looks like the Astros could have a potentially Gold Glove-caliber outfield in a couple of years. Now, if we can just do something about that infield...

Jason Bay vs. Matt Holliday, Bill James vs. devil_fingers: Free Agent Projection Showdown

devil_fingers — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:15:12 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Oh yeah, Nerdlinger, Bill James projections are the best!

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Yes, it's that time of year... projections are already coming out. Dan Szymborski from Baseball Think Factory has already published his ZiPS projections for a few teams, and I may (or may not) do some very basic projections once Baseball Databank's database is posted.

The first public player projections usually publicized in full in the offseason are the Bill James (maybe you've heard of him?) projections that are also included in the Bill James handbook. That's right, the 2010 Bill James Handbook is already available for pre-order from Acta Sports, so check it out. The projections are fun to look at, but there's much more the Handbook than that -- it usually includes cool extras like possible "career path" projections (e.g., how likely certain players are to hit certain milestones), Bill James' baserunning numbers, player win shares, the annual Fielding Bible Awards, and more. This season the Handbook is featuring new stuff on instant replay and pinch hitting analysis.

In the meantime, they've distributed their player projections to some SBNation staff for a preview. I imagine your team site may or may not be posting about that, but for my purposes, this couldn't come at a better time, as I was planning on doing a post on the two of the biggest free agents on the 09-10 market: Matt Holliday and Jason Bay. Here are the James hitting projections for the players -- I've calculated the wOBA myself, of course, using the Tango's original weights

Name	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SB	CS	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jason Bay	560	150	32	2	32	88	11	4	.268	.378	.504	.377
Matt Holliday	605	155	43	3	27	66	14	6	.316	.395	.531	.394

Assuming something like this season's run environment (.329 league wOBA), over 700 PAs, that would make Bay about a +29 runs above average, and Holliday about +38. The James projections often seem optimistic, and, if the internet has taught us anything the last couple of seasons, it's that it isn't all about offense. And if it's taught us anything else, it's that there's a lot of different ways of projecting players... so let's see how "my" crude projections (based solely-on unadjusted wOBA) stack up against the Big Bad Bill James projections when combined with estimates of each players' other skills to get their individual True Talent Wins Above Replacement (WAR), and, even better, see how much they might get in contracts in the offseason.

It's not just Bay vs. Holliday, it's James vs. fingers. Bring it.

Jason Bay

#44 / Left Field / Boston Red Sox

Height: 6-2

Weight: 205

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Sep 20, 1978

d_f Hitting projection: Bay's been a good hitter, although he had real hiccup in 2007. From 2006 to 2009, his wOBAs have been .394, .326, .387, .397. Adjusting for age (very slightly) and regressing to the mean, we estimate his current true wOBA talent level at .367, or about 22 runs above average per 700 PA.

Fielding: Some wonder if Fenway has adversely affected Bay's fielding, given his -18.2 UZR/150 in 2008 and -8.7 in 2009. But he wasn't exactly David DeJesus or Carl Crawford out in left in 2007 in Pittsburgh, featuring -11.4. He was only in 2006. The Fans have been a bit schizo according to my translations, having him slightly below average in 2009 (-3.6) and 2007 (-2.1) but loving him (post-Manny?) in 2008 (+8.4) and 2006 (+12.4). And that's why we combine sources and regress. We estimate Bay's current true talent in the field to be about 4 runs below average.

Total Value: +22 hitting - 7.5 positional adjustment -4 hitting + 25 AL replacement = 35.5 runs above replacement times 85% playing time minus half a win (5 runs) for a player 30 or older = about a 2.5 WAR player according to my crude calculations. How about he James projection with our other stuff? It's a bit strange, since we did all our aging (post-2009) in one lump 0.5 sum, and the James projections for offense have it already figured in, so we'll just turn the 5 runs into 3 runs. So we get +28.5 hitting - 7.5 positional adjustment -4 hitting + 25 AL replacement = 42 runs above replacement times 85% playing time - 3 runs aging = ~3.3 WAR player.

Matt Holliday

#15 / Left Field / St. Louis Cardinals

Height: 6-4

Weight: 235

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 15, 1980

d_f Hitting projection: Holliday got off to a rough start in Oakland, but recovered more than people think, and was awesome in Saint Louis. It's not all Colorado, folks... From 2006-2009 his seasonal wOBA's have been .409, ,428, .418, and .390. Adjusted and regressed, we estimate Holliday's true wOBA talent at .390, or about 36 runs above average.

Fielding: Yes, he had quite the miscue in the playoffs. But have you seen the average corner outfielder in the major leagues? Holliday's actually been pretty good (according to UZR) compared to his peers, having UZR/150s of -5.5, 14.7, 10.9, and 3.2 from 2006-2009. His fans have been a bit more consistent than Bay's, and have tracked his UZR better, with -5.8, 2.3, 4.9, and 3.0 according to my translations. Altogether, that makes him about a +4 fielder in LF.

Total Value: + 36 hitting + 4 fielding -7.5 positional adjustment + 20 NL replacement level = 52.5 runs above replacement times 85% playing time minus 5 runs aging = about a 4 WAR player. How about with the James numbers? + 38 hitting + 4 fielding - 7.5 positional adjustment + 20 NL replacement level = 54.5 runs above replacement times 85% playing time minus 3 runs aging = about 4.3 WAR. That's good, but I'm not sure it's quite in Mark Teixeira territory, as Holliday's agent Scott Boras asserted (although their Fangraphs WAR numbers are similar, keep in mind that it doesn't yet take into account league differences; moreover, outfield defense is subject to greater measurement error. Also keep in mind that Holliday will be year older than Teixeira when he is reaching free agency).

Me, Bill, and the Money

Even adjusting for league, Holliday is the far superior player -- not Teixeira, but probably the best free agent positional player on the market, and far better than Bay, who is above average, but not much better than that.

So it's all fun, but what difference does it make? I mean, we'll see who was "right" (probably neither of us... let's see what CHONE, ZiPS, and PECOTA say) after the season. Biut what we are reallyl interested in is the money, right? It's hard to tell what the dollar-to-projected WAR rate will be after the turbuelent offseason last year. I haven't researched it, but I'll guess $4.8 million per WAR (Keep in mind that we have to add in the $400,000 replacement salary for each year). Assuming 10% a year salary inflation and the "normal" 0.5 WAR a season decline for position players, the difference is this.

Bay on the "d_f projection" (2.5 WAR) can except contracts in this range: 1/$12M, 2/$24M, 3/$33M, 4/$40M, 5/$44M

But if he's a 3.3 WAR player (on the James figure), we'd estimate something like: 1/$16M, 2/$32M, 3/$46M, 4/$58M, 5/$67M, 6/$74M...

You get the idea...millions at stake. It may not seem like much at first, but especially on the longer deals, it really adds up.

How about Holliday at 4 WAR (d_f)? 1/$20M, 2/$39M, 3/$57M, 4/$73M, 5/$88M, 6/$100M, 7/$108M...

At 4.3 (James): 1/$21M, 2/$42M, 3/$62M, 4/$80M, 5/$86M, 6/$111M, 7/$122M...

This assumes that the projections are in the right ballpark, and, even more difficult, that it's $4.8 for WAR. And these are just estimates, not taking into accoujnt long-term security, etc. This is the alleged "fair market" value given the above caveats. But should a team pay that? For most teams -- no. A team on a budget, with a budget comparable to most of their peers, has to be getting more than the average baseball dollars worth for their money. This is what an average team will pay.

Average teams finish .500.

On average.

Now we'll see what the Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, and who knows who else thinks.

A Royal Flogging: Royals 11, Tigers 1

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 02:20:54 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

Jarrod Washburn can't bear to look at the four-run carnage he and his aching left knee left behind on the field Tuesday night.

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The less said about this, the better. Tonight's game was a disaster for the Detroit Tigers from the start.

How would Jarrod Washburn fare after skipping his last start to rest his aching left knee? Well, he struck out David DeJesus to begin the game. And his highlight reel ended there.

Washburn could not find the strike zone, throwing most everything off the plate as he tried to pitch away from the Kansas City hitters. The first Royals run was scored on a pitch far outside Alex Avila's reach. (It was scored a passed ball, but Avila would've had to be Plastic Man to catch that one.)

And when Washburn did throw a strike, it was up in the zone and hit hard. The Royals scored three more runs when Alberto Callaspo crushed a fastball deep to left-center field.

Somehow, Washburn got two more outs to end the inning. But that was the end of his evening. He was clearly having problems with that knee, limping around the mound after he got one of those outs. And the location of most of his pitches showed he wasn't getting a good push off the rubber. With that, Jim Leyland apparently decided he'd seen enough.

Washburn wasn't the only one who pitched badly tonight, however. Casey Fien served up a three-run homer to David DeJesus, eventually giving up four runs in three innings. Jeremy Bonderman gave up a three-run shot of his own to Miguel Olivo.

Actually, the pitching star of the evening was Zach Miner, who pitched two scoreless innings taking over for Washburn.

The only other thing worth noting about this game is that Don Kelly came in for Miguel Cabrera at first base and Brent Dlugach took over at third for Brandon Inge in the sixth inning. At that point, Leyland basically told everyone this game was lost.

Remember that comeback, walk-off win over the Blue Jays on Monday night? That was awesome.

Whimper:

Magglio Ordonez celebrated triggering his $18 million contract for next season by going 0-for-3. But really, it's unfair to single him out. This game was lost before the Tigers even came to bat.

Comment of the Night:

Did anyone else suddenly get a Beach Boys song in their head?

maybe it’s just me.

by MackAveKurt

Game 141: Royals 2, Indians 1

afh4 — Sat, 12 Sep 2009 02:49:25 -0000

More photos » by Mark Duncan - AP

"Flo" from Progressive threw out the first pitch.

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Justin Masterson pitched in and out of trouble all night, inducing two double plays when his back was against the wall Despite his four walks, Masterson held the Royals to just one run over 6. Zack Greinke was his usual magical self through seven innings but Trey Hillman pulled him at just 102 pitches and one earned run; Greinke's last start was a 120+ pitch performance against the Angels. Tony Sipp and Chris Perez were brilliant through 3 innings of relief.

The Royals bullpen is truly atrocious and Hillman handed the ball to Kyle Farnsworth and his 5.00+ ERA for the final two innings. He worked a clean slate in the eigth but then characteristically started to come unglued in the ninth. After putting two on, he gave up a single to Jhonny Peralta; Skinner flashed back to games that mattered and sent Cabrera home despite it being a short single into LF, where David DeJesus and his strong arm waited. Cabrerea was cut down at the plate meaning Travis Hafner would have to get a hit for the Indians to win the game in regulation. Hafner waved at strike three and the game went to extras.

Going with Perez in the top of the ninth was, if I'm not mistaken, against the book, in that the closer is expected in the top of the ninth in the tie game of a home game. When Wedge stuck with Perez for the tenth, it was an unusual, though certainly not indefensible decision. I'm not much for this whole line of speculation but if you're looking for the "denying Wood games to finish" evidence, this is about as close as we've gotten. Chris made it a tactical moot point by plowing through the Royals for a second straight inning to make a final line of 2.0 IP, 1 BB and 3K. Since joining the Indians, Perez (Mercedes?) has 32 strikeouts in 25.2 innings. These are essentially the same strikeout numbers as in St. Louis; the difference is that Perez has halved his walks.

The Royals turned to Jamey Wright to try to hold the Indians at bay in the tenth. If it seems like I'm foreshadowing that Wright would lose the game, that's because I was writing this along with the game, waiting to go for dinner, and I was hoping that was the case. It wasn't, and Valbuena-LaPorta-Marte went 1-2-3 against the suddenly indomitable Jamey Wright. In the top of the eleventh, Wedge again stayed away from Wood and went with Jose Veras, who somehow worked a scoreless inning.

Frankly, I lost interest in this an hour ago. I mean, seriously who's watching this? Sigh. Come on. Somebody hit a home run. Who's coming up? Marson, Brantley, and Cabrera. Who's my best shot there? I told these people I'd meet them for dinner an hour ago. Alright, Brantley took a walk. Come on. Just hit a double or something, Astro. It's still Jamey Wright on the mound. How is this still going on?

In the eleventh, Asdrubal grounded out to move Brantley to second; after an intentional walk to Choo, Peralta stepped in and singled to left! JP singled! And...Brantley was out at home on the throw from DeJesus. That's twice, Skinner.

Top 12. Still Veras (seriously, what?). Homerun Miguel Olivo. Well, alright.

So, that's it. Miguel Olivo took Jose Veras yard in the top of the 12th and the Indians lost. What has happened to us?

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:12:16 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

Ken Macha argues a call with third base umpire Larry Vanover during the first inning Wednesday. A case can be made that neither man should hold their present job next season.

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Some things to read while the sausages run the Preakness.

The Brewers are (mercifully?) off today, giving us a day to ponder Ken Macha's future. Batting Corey Patterson in the leadoff spot was the last straw for Brewers Daily, and Keep Turning Up the Heat doesn't understand his decision-making process with Mat Gamel. I'm not quite ready to call for Macha's head...but right now I wouldn't be disappointed if he were let go.

Keith Law has spent the last three days at Miller Park, and was disappointed by Macha's decision to use Gamel as a pinch hitter, then remove him before he actually got to bat. He also had some thoughts on Jason Kendall, Corey Patterson, and several interesting musical selections.

This probably wasn't the best week to watch a Brewer homestand, as the Brewers were dominated by Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright once again. With Wainwright's performance yesterday, the Brewers scored just one run in 39.1 innings pitched by Wainwright and Carpenter at Miller Park this season.

Brewer pitchers have actually only allowed 22 runs (slightly more than 3 per game) over the last seven games, but the bats have been shut down, and almost any bats could be shut down by the pitchers the Brewers have faced recently. Take a look back at the last nine days' opponents:

Joel Pineiro (14-9, 3.28)
Chris Carpenter (16-3, 2.16)
John Smoltz (1-1, 3.27 in the NL)
Barry Zito (9-12, 3.99)
Matt Cain (13-4, 2.51)
Jonathan Sanchez (6-11, 4.03)
Carpenter again
Smoltz again
Adam Wainwright (18-7, 2.59)

The Brewers have faced four starting pitchers with an ERA under 2.60 and just one with an ERA over 4.00 in the last nine games. It's probably not surprising they only won two of them.

With Derek Jeter tying Lou Gehrig for the Yankees' franchise lead in career hits, Baseball Digest Daily has a look at each franchise's active hits leader. Prince Fielder leads all current Brewers with 649, good for 21st most all time. If he picks up 19 more hits in 2009, he'll pass Dave May, Ted Simmons and Bill Hall for 18th place.

In the minors:

The Pioneer League season continues through the end of the week, and in what might be his final rookie league start, Eric Arnett pitched his longest professional outing yesterday, allowing two earned runs in 5.2 innings. He'll likely start 2009 in Wisconsin, but could feasibly be fast-tracked to Brevard County if he gets off to a good start.
Speaking of Wisconsin, Brock Kjeldgaard wrote himself into the Timber Rattler record books this season by striking out 172 times, most in team history. He also finished in the all-time top ten in games, home runs, RBI, total bases and walks. Kjeldgaard set a Pioneer League record by striking out 113 times for Helena last season.

The Brewers dropped two spots to 20th in MLB FanHouse's Power Rankings.

Around baseball:

Giants: Designated reliever Osiris Matos for assignment.
Phillies: Released Rodrigo Lopez.
Rockies: Designated Adam Eaton for assignment.

Joe Posnanski stumbled across a pretty fascinating stat this week: David DeJesus, who leads the Royals in walks, would be ninth on the Dodgers. A little plate discipline goes a long way.

A little water damage goes a long way, too. Less than one year after completing construction, the Mets are already battling water damage in suites at Citi Field, along with a host of other constructional and structural issues. Some franchises stretch their curses out over decades: The Mets are getting it all in 2009.

On this day in 1973, Jim Colborn pitched a complete game and led the Brewers to a 6-5 victory over the Tigers. It was the Brewers' 70th win, the first time in the franchise's five year history they'd reached thay mark. They went 4-15 the rest of the way to finish at 74-88.

I don't have any birthdays today, unless it's your birthday: In that case, happy birthday to you.

Oh, and the next time you're trying to take a family photo, you may want to check the background for donkeys.

Drink up.

Twins Sweep Royals, Michael Cuddyer Homers Twice In One Inning

Jesse — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 22:07:43 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

3 months ago: Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the Kansas City Royals, Sunday, Aug. 23, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Good news, everyone! Twins 10, Royals 3

Carl Pavano rolled through most of his afternoon, mowing down Kansas City impressively for five innings, throwing up zeros and his hands in the air like he just didn't care. He allowed a few singles until he crested, retiring ten in a row to take him through the end of the fifth.

Mike Jacobs singled in David DeJesus for a run in the sixth, and after the Twins scored eight in the top of the seventh Pavano came out for the seventh as well. Mark Teahen and Mitch Maier both singled to start the frame before Pavano was able to fight back, and he allowed just one more run before finishing the seventh inning (and his afternoon) with 108 pitches.

Pounding the strike zone with mostly fastballs and changeups his first time through the Royals order, Pavano adjusted the second time through, throwing more sinking fastballs and sliders. He was around the plate all afternoon, and he made the Royals earn every single they picked up. Of the eight hits Pavano surrendered, only DeJesus' double to lead off the top of the sixth was for extra bases. No walks and just two strikeouts, he succeeded by inducing contact and keeping his defense active. Outfielders fought the sun, and Brendan Harris flashed some quick reflexes, but for the most part the defense did it's job without flash or error.

This was also the game that should probably show the Royals fans, players and front office that sending Alex Gordon down to triple-A (for service time I'm sure, regardless of the official why) was the wrong move. Teahen was ~~playing~~ manning the hot corner this afternoon, and proceeded to let a small handfull of hits trickle or fly by him. On the opposite corner of the infield, Billy Butler is much the same--a talented athlete who's even less mobile. Josh Anderson in right field didn't have a good afternoon, either.

Bob Keppel pitched a scoreless inning, his third scoreless appearances in ten over the course of August. Jeff Manship pitched the eighth, allowing one run by tightening up after letting his first two hitters get on base.

Offensively the story of the game would be one Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer homered twice, dropping bomb numbers 21 and 22 in the eight-run seventh. That feat means Cuddyer is the first Twin to homer twice in the same inning. Congratulations, sir! (Hat tip: fischean)

Denard Span picked up a triple and three RBI, with Brendan Harris and Orlando Cabrera each tallying a double to join the extra-base hit parade. Every Minnesota hitter picked up at least one hit, with Cuddyer, Span, Joe Mauer and Carlos Gomez picking up multiple-hit days.

Most importantly, the number one thing for today: while the Twins won, the White Sox lost. ~~If the~~ ~~Tigers~~ ~~can't overcome a 5-1 deficit in the seventh, the'll lose too. With any luck, Minnesota will be just 4.5 games out when the sun comes up tomorrow morning.~~ Division-leading Detroit lost too, after a late pounding from the A's, leaving the Twinks just 4.5 games out.

Three wins in a row = winning streak. Here's hoping we can ride this crest for a few days.

More Twins/Royals coverage from SB Nation.
The best Royals coverage on the 'net.

Stars of the Game
#3: Denard Span (2-for-5, 3B, 3 RBI, R, .103 WPA)
#2: Carl Pavano (7 IP, 8 H, 2 K, 2 R, 0 BB, .206 WPA)
#1: Michael Cuddyer (3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, .222 WPA)

Quote of the Game Thread, from tobynotjason:

Posted this to SBG too:

After Delmon’s PA last inning I poked around Baseball Reference a little. I know his historically consistent 2nd-half improvement is well-known, but check this split out — it’s one I haven’t seen mentioned (and I apologize if it has been):
CAREER vs. Power pitchers (28%or more K+BB rate): .508 OPS.
Vs. Avg Power/Finesse (24-28% K+BB rate): .720.
Vs. Finesse pitchers (less than 24% K+BB rate): .951 OPS.

No, that is NOT typical. But it IS dramatic. Basically, if a pitcher relies on his stuff to strike guys out, he’s going to to own Delmon. If he relies on suppressing walks and/or inducing groundballs (the usual picture of a guy with less than 24% K+BBs, D. Young’s decent to great. If Prof. Gardenhire took note of this and benched him against power pitchers, his overall numbers would look pretty darn good. The problem, of course, is that means Gomez and his .474 OPS vs. Power pitchers (he splits like Young only worse across the board) plays, so it doesn’t get the team very far, I suppose. Still, though, interesting numbers.