SB Nation - Alex Gordon

Zack Grienke watching Royals' offseason moves

Eli Greenspan — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 00:02:12 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Royals ace Zack Grienke did not hold back in expressing his disappointment over the Royals' 2009 season. The Royals really should listen to Grienke, considering he emerged as the face of the franchise after the 2009 season.

"We'll see when the offseason comes what all we do," Greinke said. "I thought we'd be better than we've been, but we kind of proved this year that we still need more than we have to compete."

Mike Jacobs was a flop, and the injuries to Alex Gordon and Coco Crisp certainly hurt their chances. Their prize from the 2007 offseason, Gil Meche, has put up three straight double-digit losses, and finished the 2009 season with a 5.09 ERA.

The Royals need to make an investment on an impact player, because Alex Gordon is struggling to live up to potential, and Billy Butler's biggest test will come next season, when we'll see if he can continue to swing a hot bat.

If the Royals have another disappointing season, and Grienke has another Cy Young-like season, we should expect to hear whispers of a Grienke trade.

Grienke isn't eligible for free agency until after the 2012 season, but he is looking to sign an extension if the team doesn't invest more in winning. If the Royals can't lure any top players on the free agent market, then they'll likely have to shop Zack Grienke for a boatload of young prospects.

Grienke will turn 30 during the 2012 offseason, meaning his value could be at its peak coming into the 2011 season. The Royals would be smart to consider making that move so they can start the rebuilding process, because right now they are in a state of funk.

Part I: Interview with Alex Eisenberg of Baseball-Intellect

Bryan Everson (The Royalty of Roto) — Sat, 24 Oct 2009 16:15:13 -0000

More photos » by Winslow Townson - AP

5 months ago: Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Brett Anderson delivers against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning of a baseball game at Fenway Park in Boston on Monday, July 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson)

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Although this is my first baseball-related article on Fake Teams, here's proof I haven't been drinking Heinekens and watching the NFL all week.

First, I'd like to take a quick pat on the back and make this my first announcement that beginning shortly, I'm also going to be joining another staff in cahoots with Yahoo shortly over at Rivals.com. I'll be working as an intern and partly taking some basketball reins for Michigan Preps, the Michigan division of the network. Anyone who reads the college blogs over here, I look forward to sharing whatever knowledge I acquire over there and make sure everyone's getting some love.

No one can be watching everything at once, which is why we're here; we want a collective set of great eyes to tell us what's going on, particularly in the fantasy community. In trying to answer some of the most pressing fantasy baseball-related questions regarding the 2009 MLB season, I brought in a really good set of eyes. Enter Alex Eisenberg, the man in charge of Baseball-Intellect.com. Alex scouts the guys (mostly prospects) that we eventually bid up in our auction drafts, and breaks them down in a technical aspect. While he also diagnoses guys in the Show, I asked him to sit down and take a deep look into why some guys produced the way they did. Part II of this interview, which focuses more on some prospects and their outlook for next year, will be coming shortly. Enjoy.

TROR: B.J. Upton was someone who Tampa Bay counted on a great deal to lead off originally and then struggled even as he was moved down to the bottom of the order. The shoulder injury was the original diagnosis for his struggle, but what do you think plagued him this year?

Alex: I can't put my finger on why Upton struggled so much. I remember seeing pitches Upton used to drive out of the park in 2007, die at the warning track this year. I've looked at his swing and there are some changes to the action of his front leg, but I'm not sure how much of an effect it would have on his power output. That might be an article for the future, but right now it's a bit of a mystery to me. I'll say this: His swing isn't that power-oriented and his 2007 season was largely a flukish sort of year for him. However, his natural progression should have counteracted a return to the norm in his numbers, but that hasn't happened.

TROR: On the subject of the Rays, David Price struggled when he was called up this year, but settled down and posted respectable numbers, if not what we expected necessarily from him. Do you think the ceiling for him has lowered?

Alex: Price's upside hasn't changed for me. He improved as the year progressed...his command still needs work as does his change-up, but his peripherals were strong for the most part across the board. So he's still a potential No. 1 starter though he's more likely to be a No. 2 simply because of the sheer difficulty in becoming a true No. 1 guy...but the potential is there.

(More after The Jump)

TROR: A lot of fantasy owners (myself included) have anticipated that Alex Gordon was going to take the leap and become what the Royals and a lot of scouts predicted. After returning from his extended absence and posting a respectable line in September, where do you see him in terms of his contribution in 2010?

Alex: I think I see Gordon as an above average regular. He's young enough that he's still a potential breakout candidate and he hasn't reached his peak yet...I'm not sure why he's struggled at the MLB level. Injuries, trouble hitting lefties, trouble with the breaking ball...he's always had a propensity to strike out a lot. I wish I had a better answer for you. I think it's something we'll just have wait-and-see on.

TROR: They're just a month apart in terms of age and on the same team, but Brett Anderson outperformed Trevor Cahill this year. Does Anderson have the better upside both short-term and long-term?

Alex: Brett Anderson for me. They were neck and neck prior to last season. But Anderson really set himself apart. Anderson's velocity increased again (he used to be 87 - 89 in high school, it jumped to around 90 - 94 in the minors and at the start of the year and then he started hitting 92 - 96, even touching 97 at a couple points last year). There was a subtle change in his mechanics...I haven't put my finger on it yet, but the timing looks better and the arm action looks better; something looked like it just clicked for him. He has a deep repertoire of pitches and he commands all of them well. Not to mention Anderson's feel for pitching is excellent. I think he has a tremendous future.

As for Cahill, we know he has problems with command. He also had a problem missing bats. What was strange for me is that in his start for Team USA last year, I saw a four-seamer that the stadium gun clocked at 97 and then at 96. The action on the pitch was different from his two-seam fastball and I didn't see that pitch much if at all last year. I'm not sure if he abandoned the pitch or if there was a malfunction with the stadium gun, but it lowered his stock in my eyes.

However, like Anderson, his repertoire of pitches is deep. When it's on, Cahill's sinker is heavy and difficult to lift...in addition, I've felt that Cahill might have that rare ability to limit contact on batted balls...he showed it last year and he's shown it over the course of his minor league career. We still need more data to make that case, however.

Overall, he was rushed to the major league level and still held his own. Also like Anderson, Cahill's velocity increased as the year went on. His upside is still considerable, but it's probably a notch below Anderson's. In addition, he's a higher risk to reach that upside.

TROR: Bronson Arroyo was definitely a Jekyll and Hyde type of pitcher this year. His ERA was the lowest its been in several years and despite a rise in IP, his strikeouts dropped. What's your diagnosis and forecast for him?

Alex: I expect Arroyo to regress next year. He's a workhorse, but it's taken a toll on his arm.

His K's were way down last year and his overall command was worse. His .270 BABIP indicates some good luck as does his LOB% of 76. Hitters made contact at a higher rate than they had in his prior few seasons. I expect his ERA to be somewhere in the 4's next year.

TROR: One of the biggest discussions this year was David Wright's dramatic shift in numbers, most notably a decrease in power and slight regression in K/BB ratio. How much of this do you believe is mental or related to the new stadium, and how much is mechanical?

Alex: I think the park certainly had something to do with his down year. His was better away from Citi Field...not by a huge amount, but by enough where you could consider it a factor.

Not sure if something is up with his mechanics but I'll say that he has changed his mechanics over the years. However, this year's mechanics are not much different from last year's.

A big part of Wright's declines were related to his head injury I believe. If you look at his September, post-concussion numbers....624 OPS, BB% of 7, K% of 30...those numbers really brought his overall numbers down and he said he found himself flinching at balls on the inner half of the plate. Combine that with the extreme pitcher's park he played in, I think that accounts for his down season.

-------------------------

There you have it. Some great insight, and some more definitive opinions on some key players who didn't quite turn out like they were projected. Again, check out Alex's work over at Baseball-Intellect.com, and look out for Part II of the interview real soon.

Get Those Extra Checks Ready for Miguel Olivo, Willie Bloomquist, and Jamey Wright Please

royalsreview — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 19:15:09 -0000

Earlier this season we touched on Dayton Moore's odd proclivity for the playing time bonus. Dating back to the Ross Gload extension, the Royals have included a number of playing time escalators in contracts. Like anything else in a contract, these bonuses can be used in a variety of ways, for the benefit or protection of either party.

Three curious things jump out about Dayton's recent use of the tool: 1) they have been given to players who are seemingly already being overpaid, 2) the Royals have used extremely modest dollar amounts for their bonuses, yet also made them incredibly easy to reach and 3) the Royals have given playing time bonuses to players who had in the past not been full-time players, but who were quickly then made full-timers on the Royals (great negotiating!).

In 2009, Miguel Olivo, St. Willie Bloomquist and a number of pitchers each had playing-time bonuses on the table. Let's see how they did.

Miguel Olivo: 114 games played, 416 plate appearances

Here are Olivo's bonuses (reached bonuses in bold), in all their nickel-and-dimer glory:

performance bonuses based on games, plate appearances:

$25,000 each for 75, 80, 85, 90, 95, 100 games

$50,000 each for 105, 110, 115, 120 games

$25,000 each for 275, 300, 325, 350, 375, 400 PAs

$50,000 each for 425, 450, 475, 500 PAs

By sitting Olivo on the last day of the season, Trey Hillman saved his bosses $50,000, as Olivo was set to hit another bonus by playing his 115th game. All told, Olivo earned an extra $400,000 in playing time bonuses in 2009, in addition to his $2.7 million base salary, for a total of $3.1 million.

Willie Bloomquist: 125 games played, 468 plate appearances

Thanks to being employed by one of the dumbest management teams in the game, Willie Bloomquist set career playing time highs in 2009, by wide margins. Prior to 2009, his career high in games played was 102 games in 2006, and in 32 of those games he was a late-game sub. The 468 plate appearances in 2009 is more than he got in his final two seasons in Seattle combined (380), where he was also loved by everyone and valued for doing whatever it is that he does. Again, the Royals gave a guy with a .663 OPS 468 PAs this season. Blame Alex Gordon.

performance bonuses:

$50,000 each for 70 games or 280 PAs, 80 g or 320 PAs, 90 g or 360 PAs, 100 g or 400 PAs

$0.1M each for 110 g or 440 PAs, 120 g or 480 PAs, 130 g or 520 PAs, 140 g or 560 PA

Willie's contract is a little more standard, in that the games played and plate appearance bonuses are tied to one another, given that they are reflective of the same thing most of the time. The Sainted One hit all four of his $50,000 bonuses and two of his $100,000 bonuses, for a total of $400,000 extra in bonuses. Bloomquist's base salary in 2009 was $1.4 million, giving him a total payday of $1.8 million. In addition to the biggest contract of his career, Dayton Moore signed him to a deal which would allow him to add 25-35% (roughly) to his payday simply by showing up.

John Bale: 43 total points

Bale's contract for 2009 is interesting in that it uses a points system based on how he is used. (Bonuses met in bold)

performance bonuses based on points (2 points for a start, 1.5 points for 2-inning appearance, 1 point forappearance of less than 2 innings):

$25,000 each for 34, 36, 38 points

$50,000 each for 40, 42, 44 points

$75,000 each for 46, 48, 50 points

$0.1M each for 52, 54, 56 points

$0.125M each for 58, 60 points

By my count, Bale appeared in 43 games, and they were all non-starts, and all under 2.0 innings, leaving him at 43 points. Actually an impressive total for a guy who seemingly was injured and ineffective all season. The Royals bullpen, we're all in this together! If we all suck, we can all still play. Bale snagged an extra $175,000 dollars to go along with his base salary of $1.2 million.

Kyle Farnsworth: 18 games finished

Farnsworth's contract uses "games finished" as a bonus trigger, which could either mean "I got the closer role" or "I was good enough to sub for Soria sometimes" or even "I was bad but got mopup duty". Farnsworth somehow finished 18 games for the Royals, which amazes me.

performance bonuses: $50,000 each for 20, 25, 30, 35, 40 games finished; $0.1M for 45 GF; $0.15M for 50 GF; $0.25M for 55 GF

Still, no bonuses for Farnsy.

Jamey Wright: 0 starts, 65 appearances

Wright was supposed to be one of Moore's bargain signings this season, brought in for a minor league contract. Thanks to his near-constant use however, Wright did alright for himself.

performance bonuses:

starts: $50,000 for 5 GS; $0.1M each for 10, 15 GS; $0.15M for 20 GS

relief appearances: $50,000 each for 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 games; $0.1M each for 50, 55, 60 games

Wright was signed to a minor league contract, but he would have made the prorated minimum while in the Majors, and could have had extras thrown in as well. Cot's lists him as earning $800,000 in base salary in 2009. Thanks to his 65 appearances, he also earned an additional $600,000 in bonuses. Wright owes Trey Hillman a nice dinner.

Yabuta and Waechter had a number of bonuses, but reached none of them. Thankfully, in Yabuta's case. Yabuta appeared in only 43 games as a Royal in 2008-9. Did you know that if he had appeared in 155 games total over those years, he would have vested a player option for 2010?

When you look at these bonuses, the ones for the pitchers make much more sense, from the club's standpoint: if you make this team, Jamey Wright, and if you're healthy and good all season, Kyle Farnsworth, you'll make even more money for us. Maybe that gets them in the door for a little less money guaranteed, which would in theory be good, if we were talking about good players.

The Bloomquist and Olivo bonuses make less sense to me. Not surprisingly, Olivo was unhappy with a lack of playing time in 2008, and seemed to have an idea that he was "brought here to be a starter". Hmm... where'd that problem come from? Meanwhile, the extra Bloomquist money just adds less value to an already bad contract. When you include reasonable playing time bonuses, the Royals didn't sign him to a 2 year/$3.1 million dollar deal, they signed him to a 2 year/$4.1 million dollar deal.

Figures like these need to be kept in mind when discussing the Royals payroll. Are these contracts creative ways of staying under some set in stone budget number? There's no way of knowing. Reported figures for the Royals payroll tend to be all over the place. Sometimes the Royals want to stress how large it is, sometimes they want to point out how small.

Contracts like these are common in today's game, just not necessarily for position players with little injury history like Bloomquist and Olivo. Two is a coincidence and, with the Ross Gload contract, three is a trend. Maybe Moore just likes making these kind of deals. Maybe ownership wants a little injury insurance. Maybe it is a motivational tool for the player. Who knows? There are benefits to lots of small bonuses (like the Olivo contract) and there are benefits to ones which aren't reached until some large playing time number is hit, as in the Yabuta contract. Did Olivo know that Hillman's decision to play Pena and Buck on the final day of the season cost him $50,000? Did he care? Should he care? I don't know the answer to those questions. Yes, $50,000 is much less relevant to these guys than it is to most of us, but then again, Miguel Olivo also has many more expenses, taxes, etc. than most of us as well. He has had to move across the country like six or seven times during his career. He's got bills, he's got things he wants. If a guy I didn't really respect cost me $500 dollars (in my mind) I'd be really unhappy about it. I bet you'd feel the same way.

This is all just to say, there's quite a lot going on here. Since we aren't privy to these contract negotiations, and know nothing about anyone involved beyond their baseball stuff, we're left to guess. What do you guess?

Twins Hammer and Homer Royals for the Sweep: Bring On the Tigers!

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 22:23:49 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel doffs his helmet to the crowd after his second three-run home run of the game off Kansas City Royals' Luke Hochevar in the third inning of a baseball game Sunday, Oct. 4, 2009 in Minneapolis, while Denard Span makes fun of his beard. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 13, Royals 4

Do you hear that? Can you still hear it? It's the reverb from the cacophony of noise created by fans at the Dome. Why, you may ask?

Because we just forced game 163.

"BOOM!" said Jason Kubel.

"BOOM!" said Delmon Young.

"BOOM!" said Kubel, again.

"Ditto," said Delmon.

As the Detroit Tigers hung on to salvage one game from the Chicago White Sox this afternoon, the Twins were busy putting the hurt on the Kansas City Royals. It was 7-0 at the end of the third inning, with six of those runs crossing the plate stuck in Kubel's beard; a pair of three-run jacks lifted Jason to one of the best days of his career in a crucial game.

Young went deep twice of his own accord, solo shots that, "just enough" or not, certainly did the trick. His second blast put the Twins up 8-1 going into the sixth, and the game looked like it was on ice. But oh yeah, we were facing the Royals, and they have just as much fight as the Twins. Sadly for them they don't have the talent to match, but for one half of an inning, things were interesting.

Carl Pavano started on three days rest this afternoon, and he looked good. Working out of a second and third with one out situation in the second inning, he made a statement about exactly what kind of a pitcher he can be when he bears down. He worked John Buck out-in-out-in-in to induce a shallow fly-out to center that couldn't score a run, and then quickly sent down Alex Gordon as well. It was a microcosm of the game for the Royals: try as they might, it wasn't going to be good enough.

Pavano pitched around a Luis Hernandez leadoff double in the third before allowing a run in the fourth off back-to-back doubles by Alberto Callaspo and Mark Teahen. He looked strong again the fifth before falling off the table in the aforementioned sixth.

Mike Jacobs picked up a leadoff single before Callaspo tripled to bring the score to 8-2. Still Pavano battled back, striking out Teahen and inducing a Buck ground-out for out number two. Another run scored, but with the bases empty and the bullpen spare he attacked Alex Gordon.

"BOOM!", said Gordon. 8-4, hook for Pavano, enter Bobby Keppel.

Quick, ask me which pitcher I don't want to see in a game.

Keppel lasted six pitches, delivering five fastballs down the middle of the plate and a slider in the dirt. The Royals continued to jab with the left, trying to inch closer before coming in with a strong right. With runners on the corners and still just the two outs that Pavano managed, Ron Gardenhire went to Ron Mahay in order to get lefty Mitch Maier.

Mahay hit Maier.

Bases loaded, down by four and with Billy Butler at the dish, this game suddenly didn't look like such a sure shot. Gardenhire power walked to the mound for the third time that inning, stuck two fingers up Mahay's nose, pulled down, said "Get outta here you knucklehead" and then poked Mahay in the eyes. Out came Jon Rauch.

Big, surly Jon Rauch. The Jon Rauch whose tattoo changes color depending on his mood. I think it's like a mood tattoo, and today it was green. Whatever green means, it didn't bode well for the Royals. Rauch dusted in and out with a couple of breaking balls, and then attacked the outer half with two consecutive fastballs, the second of which Butler just stood and watched without flinching. Strike three, good sir.

From there things got considerably easier. In the bottom half of the sixth Denard Span walked, and then scored on an Orlando Cabrera double down the left field line. After Kubel singled in the seventh, Carlos Gomez replaced him on the bases and later scored on a Matt Tolbert (TOL-BEAR!!) double into right. In the bottom half of the eighth Span singled, and then scored on a Cabrera double down the left field line. Yes, again. Oh, and one more thing.

"BOOM!" said Cuddyer. With authori-tah.

Astoundingly the Royals actually out-hit the Twins 12-11, with the difference being that A) the Twins walked seven times and B) the Twins out-homered the Royals 5-1. That kind of thing usually makes it very easy to win.

Brian Duensing, Jesse Crain and Francisco Liriano dusted off the final three innings without allowing a run, and at the end of the afternoon the Twins had done the unbelieveable: they'd swept the Royals, and earned themselves a shot at the division title.

While the White Sox couldn't complete the miracle, it hardly seems to matter. Minnesota was written off for dead, not just by most of the baseball world but by many of their own fans. And you know what? I don't blame anyone. I don't harbor any hard feelings toward anyone for looking at the mathematical probabilities on Friday morning and saying "nope". But it was't over then, and it's not over now.

Tuesday afternoon at four the Tigers come to town to defend a crown that should be theirs. There will be no pressure on the Twins in this game--they're "not supposed" to even be there. For the second year in a row the Twins have to play game 163 to decide whether or not they are the AL Central champions, to decide whether or not they earn the right to play post-season baseball. This time the game is being played where it should be played: in the comforts of Dome.

The season plays on for at least one more glorious afternoon of baseball. And we get once last shot under the teflon sky. Are you excited? Because you sure as hell should be.

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, .071 WPA)
#2: Carl Pavano (5.2 IP on three days rest, 8 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 R, .096 WPA)
#1: Jason Kubel (3-for-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 2 R, .257 WPA)

Mauer's MVP Beats Greinke's Cy Young, Twins Stave Off Comeback

Jesse — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 00:12:08 -0000

More photos » by Jim Mone - AP

2 months ago: Minnesota Twins' Jason Kubel, left, Michael Cuddyer, center and Joe Mauer, right, celebrate after scoring on a three-run double by Delmon Young off Kansas City Royals pitcher Zack Greinke in the sixth inning of a baseball game Saturday, Oct. 3, 2009, in Minneapolis. It was the final series in the Metrodome. (AP Photo/Jim Mone)

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Twins 5, Royals 4

There are no shortages of heroes in Minnesota tonight. A four-run sixth disappeared, but today the Twins weren't going to be denied.

For five and a half innings, Zack Greinke and Nick Blackburn traded zeros. The game's first hit didn't even come until Orlando Cabrera led off the bottom of the fourth, but for more than half of the contest it was a beautiful pitcher's duel. Stressful? Yes. But beautiful.

The Twins finally drew blood in the bottom of the sixth. Nick Punto drew an eight-pitch walk off Greinke to lead off the frame, before Denard "ideal leadoff guy" Span dropped down a made-to-order bunt on the first pitch he saw. With LNP standing on second base, Greinke's pitches began to sit high in the zone. He managed to get Cabrera to ground out to third base, but he wasn't able to keep Punto from advancing. With two out and the game still knotted at zero, up stepped Joe Mauer.

Greinke tried to bust Mauer up and in twice, with Joe taking atypical chances and taking cuts on them both and fouling them off. A pair of sliders just under the strike zone followed, leading to a 1-2 count before Greinke tried to come up and in with another fastball. This time, Joe did exactly what he meant to. He pulled it through the right side, and Punto finally scored to give the Twins a 1-0 lead.

Then the Royals ace came off the rails, just a little bit. Jason Kubel took an outer-half fastball and shot it down the left field line, for a moment saving Greinke from a run as it hit the turf and then bounced over the fence, keeping Mauer on third base. Then he hit Michael Cuddyer with a 94-mph fastball. For the third time in two days, the Royals loaded the bases for Delmon Young.

Maybe Greinke was feeling confident. Maybe he just didn't locate the ball where he wanted it to go. Maybe he and Miguel Olivo were over-thinking their strategy. For whatever reason, Greinke served Delmon a 95-mph first-pitch fastball somewhere between the letters and the belly button, and as everyone's favorite play-by-play guy likes to say, he didn't miss it. Young went the other way, dropping the ball into right field, clearing the bases to give the Twins a 4-0 lead.

Kansas City stuck with their man, even after Jose Morales singled on the next pitch. Even Matt Tolbert swung at the first pitch he saw, and he hit it hard. But this time the ball was blind, and Minnesota's rally came to and end. So did Greinke's afternoon.

A Mike Jacobs homer in the top of the seventh put Kansas City on the board, but it was the eighth that, if you were watching or listening or at this game, should have put the fear of the baseball gods right into you. Olivo led it off with a double, signaling the end of Blackburn's night. Jose Mijares replaced him, and I'm starting to wonder if he's inside of his own head a bit after throwing at Adam Everett on Thursday. Alex Gordon took the third fastball he saw and deposited it over the right field fence, cutting Minnesota's lead to one. Another single saw Mijares get the hook for Jon Rauch, who did his job one batter too late.

Willie Bloomquist singled, moving something called Tug Hutlett to third with no outs in the inning. Rauch got Mitch Maier to roll into a double play, but it scored the tying run. The Metrodome fell silent, and if you weren't having images of whatever playoff hopes you had crashing down in your subconscious, then I envy you. For a game that looked so well in hand to fall apart so quickly, it didn't look good.

You know who didn't care? You know who said "Get on my back, I have broad shoulders and really big dimples and the bat of a hero"? Michael Cuddyer. The same guy who Greinke nailed two innings prior watched a pair of pitches miss the zone before he decided to take a chance. Dusty Hughes threw a changeup, as straight as it could possibly be, right over the plate at about Cuddyer's knees. Cuddles turned on it, and lauched it into the home run porch in left field. He breathed life back into the season, into the team, and into the fans.

Joe Nathan struck out a pair in a perfect ninth inning to pick up save number 47, and once again the Minnesota Twins have won. It's not over yet, kids. No matter what happens tonight, tomorrow matters. And if by some miracle the Tigers lose tonight, tomorrow matters even more.

Holy crap. Can they do this?

Stars of the Game
#3: Delmon Young (2-for-4, 2B, 3 RBI, .154 WPA)
#2: Nick Blackburn (7+ IP, 2 R, 5 K, 0 BB, .305 WPA)
#1: Michael Cuddyer (1-for-3, HR, RBI, 2 R, .245 WPA)

Hot Corner Futures

the red baron — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 14:56:33 -0000

by Morry Gash - AP

They call him Lego. And he will destroy all you hold dear. (AP Photo/Morry Gash)

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So apparently this Matt Holliday guy is pretty decent at playing the baseball, huh?

On the list of least expected wins of this year, I would have to put that one right up near the top. For eight full innings, it felt like the Cards were just going to let the game slip away from them, victims again of poor at-bats and bases left full of runners. Oh well, the collective mind of Cardinal fandom said to itself, you can't win them all, I suppose. Hell, the Cubs haven't actually gained a full game on the Cards since late July; that's a pretty good run. Just one of those days when the team didn't quite get it done.

But Matt Holliday was having none of it. Hey there, collective consciousness, he said, that's loser talk! Why, I'm going to hit this Hall of Fame changeup over that center field wall just to prove to you how wrong you are!

And so he did. And there was much rejoicing.

Oh, and I would like to send my thanks to Tony La Russa for sticking to what I like to call the Grand United David Weathers Theory of Baseball. On second thought, I need a better name for it than that. GUDWTB just doesn't really stick in your mind, does it? Someone help me out with a better name.

I'll be honest with you; there really isn't a whole lot else I can say about last night's game. Smoltz looked very, very shaky in the early going but then seemed to get himself back on track; with his ability to get the strikeout, I think he's going to be a very, very useful weapon for the Cards come playoff time, most likely late in the game. I do think we need to change Blake Hawksworth's nickname to the Lucky Charm. Just saying.

Given the fact today's contest is a day game, I'm going to be brief this morning. Or at least try.

The longer the season goes on, the more convinced I become the Cardinals are probably going to resign Matt Holliday. He's been so good, and such an ideal fit, I just can't see the Cards letting him walk. Never mind the PR disaster; the fans will follow as long as the team wins. But more importantly, I think the organisation is still committed to keeping Tony La Russa on board as the manager, and having Holliday in a Redbird uniform for the near future could go a long way toward helping make Tony's decision whether or not to return in 2010 and beyond much easier. Plus, Scott Boras or no, Holliday seems to be honestly enjoying his time here in St. Louis, enough I think he'll accept a fair deal with relatively little fuss. He isn't going to be giving the Cards a discount, by any means, but I also don't think he's going to hold out and try to get Mark Texeira money. (I was getting ready to make a comment about how good our pie is here in flyover country, but then played it back in my head and decided that maybe wasn't the exact best phrasing I could come up with.)

No, to me, the more interesting free agent situation of the offseason for the Cardinals is going to be that of their current third baseman, Mark DeRosa. DeRosa is in a rather unusual position going into the offseason, and it will be very interesting indeed to see if he'll get anything approaching the sort of contract most of us assumed he would be due.

The problem, of course, is DeRosa has problems. Specifically, he has a wrist problem and a status problem. The wrist problem revolves around a tendon sheath and will require surgery in the offseason to repair it. The status problem revolves around the letter A.

As a likely Type A free agent this year, DeRosa will cost any team interested in signing him either their first or second-round draft pick in the 2010 draft. In the past, a player with numbers good enough to qualify as a Type A would generally be the sort of player a team would be perfectly willing to part with a draft pick for, but the math of baseball has changed. Teams are valuing their draft picks much, much more highly than in the past, as we saw this past winter. Players like Juan Cruz and Orlando Hudson found themselves on the market much, much later than anticipated, largely due to the Type A status and accompanying draft cost they were carrying around with them. Of course, Dayton Moore then proved not all teams have quite made it on the bandwagon yet; personally, I'm kind of hoping Moore continues making ~~stupid~~ brilliant moves like that and decided to stick it to his team's cross-state rival by trading them Alex Gordon for a bucket of KFC.

If the only issue for DeRosa were his arbitration status, he would likely be just fine. There would be at least one team out there willing to give up an early draft pick for the offensive upgrade he would immediately give them. Unfortunately for Monsieur du fait de Monter, his wrist issues and rather advanced age make him a bit of a risky bet anyway; add in the loss of a valuable draft pick, and I don't think too very many teams are going to be beating down his door, contract in hand.

Keeping all that in mind, I thought I might look at a few of the more likely candidates to fill the Cardinals' impending opening at the hot corner; give us all a bit better idea of just what's out there.

Mark DeRosa

Pros: Power bat, solid on-base skills. (though those have suffered since coming to St. Louis. Consternant!) Is, by all accounts, a good clubhouse guy. (Valuations may vary.) Gives outstanding interviews. Quite handsome. (Seriously, we've all seen his wife -- and no, I'm not posting pictures -- and I have to say, he might be the good-looking one in that marriage. Just saying.) Cool name. Will likely come on a short-term contract, due to factors outlined above.

Cons: See above. (Wrist, age, etc.)

Troy Glaus

Pros: Has hit for power in the past, decent on-base skills. Solid defender. A source of significant entertainment even when striking out. Scratch that, especially when striking out. Will likely come on a short-term deal, probably one-year.

Cons: Has missed almost the entire season after having left shoulder surgery, so health is a serious concern going forward. (And let's face it, we've seen what happens to St. Louis third basemen after they have shoulder surgery.) Well on the wrong side of 30, so decline is a concern.

David Freese

Pros: Very good glove. Young. Has a great story as a native St. Louisan. (Again, valuation may vary.) Has shown good power at the minor league level. Walk rates consistently near 10% at most levels. Making league minimum.

Cons: Unproven. May have lingering concerns about health after having ankle surgery. Was less than forthcoming about the injury with the organisation early on. Has few weaknesses as a player, but also has no real outstanding tools.

Brett Wallace

Pros: Remarkable plate discipline, plus power to all fields. Should hit early and often. Has good hands. Will be very inexpensive, making league minimum as a rookie. Great nickname already, though he apparently doesn't really like being called the Walrus.

Cons: Not actually an option. (Sniff)

Allen Craig

Pros: Hits and hits and hits and hits. Has never posted an OPS below .868 at any full-season minor league stop. Hits for both average and power, with a .921 OPS this year in Memphis. Will make league minimum.

Cons: Struggles in the field, often attempting to catch the ball with an oven mitt. Occasionally tries to get traded in mid-inning to avoid playing defense. Once invited Tony La Russa to a party at Michael Vick's house. Wants to pee in your pool. (Note: none of this is true, but I can't think of any other reasons why Craig is so universally ignored in the organisation.)

Joe Mather

Pros: Best nickname ever. Tremendous power, plus athleticism. Versatile; can play third, first, and any outfield position. Inexpensive, making league minimum.

Cons: Is a below-average defender at third. Missed almost all season with wrist issues; it will remain a concern until he proves it is not. Probably going to steal your girlfriend. Better fit in the outfield or as a supersub than an everyday third baseman. (Then again, so is DeRosa, so...)

Adrian Beltre

Pros: Best defensive third baseman on the market; barely a step down from Scott Rolen or Ryan Zimmermann. Younger than you think. Numbers have been depressed in Seattle; may be undervalued. Could come on short-term deal to try and reestablish himself. Enjoys free balling. Possibly a good bet to capture a bit of contract-year lightning in a bottle.

Cons: Health is a concern, as Beltre had season-ending shoulder surgery in July. Doesn't really like the walks so much (career .325 OBP). Scott Boras client. Competitiveness has been questioned at times. May have left his free balling days behind.

Chone Figgins

Pros: Fun to watch. Seriously. Hits for high average and has become a very good on-base player. Versatile, though truly awful in the outfield. Solid-average defender at third, maybe a little better than that. Walk rates have increased steadily.

Cons: Has little (read: no) power. Aging curve is not kind to speed players over 30. Will likely require long-term contract, and at high dollars. Is a fan favorite in Anaheim (as well as a manager favorite), and seems a fair bet to resign with the Angels. Violates rules of scrappiness by being black.

Joe Crede

Pros: Very good defender. Local product (Jeff City), nice story. Strong arm, good hands, plus range.

Cons: Has never been much of a hitter, and is in further decline. Chronic back problems have necessitated multiple surgeries. No longer has much power, and has never had much in the way of plate discipline. Over 30 with serious physical issues.

Melvin Mora

Pros: Would come cheaply on a short-term deal.

Cons: Is fairly awful. And old. And kind of a jackass. And awful.

And that, folks, is just about it. Technically, there are a few others, guys like Craig Counsell and Rich Aurilia and Nomaaaaaahhhhh, but I just can't really see the Cardinals looking at any of those guys too seriously. I suppose Pedro Feliz might be an option, but I'm not feeling it.

So given the options, what would be your choice? Personally, I wouldn't mind seeing Beltre if he came on a one-year deal, and I like Chone Figgins a lot. As far as Figgins goes, though, with the Cards needing to find budget space for Hurricane Holliday as well as the impending Albert mega deal, I doubt he's much of an option. Also, as I said above, I just get the feeling he stays in Anaheim. A guy I would very much be interested in is the player Figgins is blocking, Brandon Wood. Wood has destroyed the minors for several years now, but has struggled to make the transition to the big leagues. I think the Angels' handling of Wood has had a hand in his struggles, as he's never been given much of a chance to prove himself, instead filling in at short or third here and there with inconsistent playing time. He may be a bust, but I think it would certainly be worth finding out.

As for the in-house options, I know there is some sentiment to bring back Glaus, but I would vote no. Maybe if DeRosa does in fact go elsewhere Glaus would be worth it on a one-year low guaranteed deal, but shoulders just scare me. I think DeRosa is a better bet to be productive coming off his postseason surgery than Glaus coming off his long year of rehab. Just my opinion, though.

In the end, DeRosa probably represents the best option, especially if offered arbitration and signed for only a single year. Otherwise, I'm comfortable letting David Freese have first crack at the position in spring training, then look for possible solutions as the season goes on if he struggles. Well, technically, I would probably give Allen Craig first crack at it, but that apparently isn't in the organisation's plans. It is kind of nice to see the Cards giving Craig the chance to break Crash Davis' minor league home run record, though; that's the sort of thing we'll all remember forever. What? What the hell is fiction?

Above all, though, please god no more Joe Thurston. This is one case where I absolutely don't care what the numbers say. I can't take another season of watching him play third base for this team.

What say you, mob? (I would say angry mob, but who can be angry after watching the Douche Crew crash and burn?)

The Baron's Playlist for the 9th of September, 2009

"Poke" - Frightened Rabbit

"Holes" - Mercury Rev

"Blake's View" - M. Ward

"Robot Ponies" - Laura Barrett

"He's Simple, He's Dumb, He's the Pilot" - Grandaddy

Alex Gordon's Career: A Cautionary Tale for Pedro Alvarez and the Pirates

Charlie — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 21:26:39 -0000

More photos » by Ed Zurga - AP

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Baseball Prospectus has an interesting article (subscription only) about what in the world happened to the Royals' Alex Gordon. The article doesn't reach any firm conclusions, but suggests that one possible reason Gordon hasn't set the world on fire is that he didn't receive enough development time in the minors.

I mention this here because the parallels between Gordon and Pedro Alvarez are pretty interesting. Like Alvarez, Gordon was selected with the second overall pick in the draft as a 21-year-old third baseman who had pretty much been the best thing ever in college. Like Alvarez, Gordon didn't play pro ball in the year he was drafted.

Instead, the Royals started him at Class AA Wichita the following year. There, he hit .327/.427/.588 for a full season, which didn't exactly dampen the Royals' enthusiasm for him, so they made him their starting third baseman the following year.

It hasn't worked out. Gordon hit .247/.314/.411 in his rookie year. The next season, he drew more walks but still didn't show the power you'd hope for from a second overall pick. This season, Gordon had hip surgery in April, went on the DL, and hasn't hit when he's even been available. It's certainly possible that his hip is the main reason he hasn't played well this year, but then he also didn't play all that well even before that.

It appears Gordon could have used more time in the minors, and we'd do well to consider that with Alvarez. His stint at Lynchburg raised plenty of questions about his ability to control the strike zone, but his play so far as Class AA Altoona (.326/.411/.560) closely resembles Gordon's Class AA line. The Pirates seem likely to resist the temptation to promote Alvarez straight to the majors next year, and I think they're right to do that. Gordon's example shows the potential hazards in moving a player like Alvarez up too quickly, and Alvarez could probably stand to have at least a couple months at Class AAA before he's called up.

Matt Wieters, another top college pick who got only one full year in the minors, did get a couple months at AAA at the beginning of this year and has been mediocre so far in the big leagues, so even that rather conservative promotion schedule might not be a panacea for Alvarez. But at least the Pirates will get an extra year of player control in the bargain, and they won't have to worry about whether they promoted Alvarez too quickly.

Twins Sweep Royals, Michael Cuddyer Homers Twice In One Inning

Jesse — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 22:07:43 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

4 months ago: Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano throws during the first inning of a baseball game against the Kansas City Royals, Sunday, Aug. 23, 2009, in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

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Good news, everyone! Twins 10, Royals 3

Carl Pavano rolled through most of his afternoon, mowing down Kansas City impressively for five innings, throwing up zeros and his hands in the air like he just didn't care. He allowed a few singles until he crested, retiring ten in a row to take him through the end of the fifth.

Mike Jacobs singled in David DeJesus for a run in the sixth, and after the Twins scored eight in the top of the seventh Pavano came out for the seventh as well. Mark Teahen and Mitch Maier both singled to start the frame before Pavano was able to fight back, and he allowed just one more run before finishing the seventh inning (and his afternoon) with 108 pitches.

Pounding the strike zone with mostly fastballs and changeups his first time through the Royals order, Pavano adjusted the second time through, throwing more sinking fastballs and sliders. He was around the plate all afternoon, and he made the Royals earn every single they picked up. Of the eight hits Pavano surrendered, only DeJesus' double to lead off the top of the sixth was for extra bases. No walks and just two strikeouts, he succeeded by inducing contact and keeping his defense active. Outfielders fought the sun, and Brendan Harris flashed some quick reflexes, but for the most part the defense did it's job without flash or error.

This was also the game that should probably show the Royals fans, players and front office that sending Alex Gordon down to triple-A (for service time I'm sure, regardless of the official why) was the wrong move. Teahen was ~~playing~~ manning the hot corner this afternoon, and proceeded to let a small handfull of hits trickle or fly by him. On the opposite corner of the infield, Billy Butler is much the same--a talented athlete who's even less mobile. Josh Anderson in right field didn't have a good afternoon, either.

Bob Keppel pitched a scoreless inning, his third scoreless appearances in ten over the course of August. Jeff Manship pitched the eighth, allowing one run by tightening up after letting his first two hitters get on base.

Offensively the story of the game would be one Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer homered twice, dropping bomb numbers 21 and 22 in the eight-run seventh. That feat means Cuddyer is the first Twin to homer twice in the same inning. Congratulations, sir! (Hat tip: fischean)

Denard Span picked up a triple and three RBI, with Brendan Harris and Orlando Cabrera each tallying a double to join the extra-base hit parade. Every Minnesota hitter picked up at least one hit, with Cuddyer, Span, Joe Mauer and Carlos Gomez picking up multiple-hit days.

Most importantly, the number one thing for today: while the Twins won, the White Sox lost. ~~If the~~ ~~Tigers~~ ~~can't overcome a 5-1 deficit in the seventh, the'll lose too. With any luck, Minnesota will be just 4.5 games out when the sun comes up tomorrow morning.~~ Division-leading Detroit lost too, after a late pounding from the A's, leaving the Twinks just 4.5 games out.

Three wins in a row = winning streak. Here's hoping we can ride this crest for a few days.

More Twins/Royals coverage from SB Nation.
The best Royals coverage on the 'net.

Stars of the Game
#3: Denard Span (2-for-5, 3B, 3 RBI, R, .103 WPA)
#2: Carl Pavano (7 IP, 8 H, 2 K, 2 R, 0 BB, .206 WPA)
#1: Michael Cuddyer (3-for-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R, .222 WPA)

Quote of the Game Thread, from tobynotjason:

Posted this to SBG too:

After Delmon’s PA last inning I poked around Baseball Reference a little. I know his historically consistent 2nd-half improvement is well-known, but check this split out — it’s one I haven’t seen mentioned (and I apologize if it has been):
CAREER vs. Power pitchers (28%or more K+BB rate): .508 OPS.
Vs. Avg Power/Finesse (24-28% K+BB rate): .720.
Vs. Finesse pitchers (less than 24% K+BB rate): .951 OPS.

No, that is NOT typical. But it IS dramatic. Basically, if a pitcher relies on his stuff to strike guys out, he’s going to to own Delmon. If he relies on suppressing walks and/or inducing groundballs (the usual picture of a guy with less than 24% K+BBs, D. Young’s decent to great. If Prof. Gardenhire took note of this and benched him against power pitchers, his overall numbers would look pretty darn good. The problem, of course, is that means Gomez and his .474 OPS vs. Power pitchers (he splits like Young only worse across the board) plays, so it doesn’t get the team very far, I suppose. Still, though, interesting numbers.

Lunchtime Prowl: D-Train's Pitching, Huff the RBI Man, Smoltz Talk, and Reviewing Comerica Park

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 16:30:12 -0000

As it turns out, Dontrelle Willis will be making a rehab start tonight for Triple-A Toledo, after all. Willis was originally scheduled to pitch Monday, but that was pushed back due to a sore hip. He was initially scratched for tonight, as well, but it appears he got the "all clear" sign from the doctors.

In today's Freep, Jo-Ann Barnas looks at Willis's effort to get back. Tonight will be his first pitching appearance since June 14, when he was put back on the DL for anxiety disorder.

Over at Tiger Tales, Lee analyzes the popular notion that Aubrey Huff is "a RBI man." Does he really seem to focus more or hit better with men on base? And between him and Miguel Cabrera, which should be expected to drive more runs in from here on out?

Dave Dombrowski says some in the Tigers' organization believe that left field could be Huff's best position, according to Tom Gage. However, he hasn't played the outfield since 2006. Huff himself says he's most comfortable at first base or DH, but that's also where he's played most recently. How does he feel about possibly playing outfield at Comerica Park?

"It's been a while since I've played the outfield. I'm going to take some fly balls and see how it goes. But I don't think I've ever played in an outfield like this -- lot of ground to cover."

Here's another "Huff-ington post": (That's just not going to catch on, is it? Sorry, Billfer.) After taking another day to think about it, Fire Jim Leyland thinks acquiring Huff was "a move just to make a move."

Mike wrote more about the deal for Beyond the Box Score, comparing the trade to Dave Dombrowski rearranging furniture in his basement.

Did you catch Terry Foster spreading a rumor on Facebook that Dombrowski and John Smoltz had lunch over the weekend? Foster added an update today, saying the Tigers offered Smoltz a bullpen role, but the Cardinals are offering a starting pitching job, and that's what he'd prefer.

I'm skeptical, though Dombrowski did shoot down any possible interest to Jon Paul Morosi. Smoltz had also been attached to rumors with the Marlins, Rangers, and Dodgers. It's a moot point, however, as it looks like he'll be going to St. Louis.

Baseball America published its annual managers' survey, ranking the top three players in a variety of categories (best power, best change-up, etc.). MASN.com's Roch Kubatko posted the list, and several Tigers came out favorably.

Mack Avenue Tigers has a profile of pitcher Zach Simons, who could be the next reliever called up to Detroit for bullpen help. Simons has split time between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo this year, compiling a 3-2 record, 2.61 ERA, and three saves in 37 games. He's struck out 59 batters and walked 23 in 62 innings.

(Love that Asheville Tourists hat in his roster photo!)

One of the writers at Royals Review took a trip to Comerica Park over the weekend, and liked what he saw. I think I agree with most everything RoyalsRetro said in his review, especially regarding the scoreboard.

Sticking with the Royals, there's some disagreement in the K.C. blogosphere over the decision to demote Alex Gordon to the minors. Royals Review thinks this is the type of move that a bad team makes, demoting a player to delay his service time and subsequent free agency. Sam Mellinger believes, however, that this was all about Gordon's performance. Fangraphs' R.J. Anderson comes down somewhere in the middle.

And let's end on a laugh, shall we? Did Brett Favre come out of "retirement" to sign with the Minnesota Vikings... or the Minnesota Twins? The Dugout tries to figure out what's going on in Favre's head. Good luck with that.

8 Run Applesauce - Mets set hit record, Manuel ticks off Church, Valdez back, Rizzo possibly out

Joe Budd — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:45:55 -0000

Hooray for hits. Since the whole team refuses to take walks and they're paid to score runs, we're kind of left with hits and we got a lot of those, at least in the fourth inning. It's sad that the only player that remotely interests me is pitching tonight.

Meet the Mets

Jerry Manuel called Ryan Church a "different animal" than David Wright. I haven't been able to find the context for the quote, whether he was calling him a wuss or whether or not he was just telling the truth in that Wright was a more valuable player who should be handled differently. Either way, Ryan Church found the quote important. So did the tabloids. It's been a while since we've seen a player-manager relationship this publicly bad.

With Alex Cora gone for the season, Wilson Valdez makes a repeat appearance.

Oliver Perez was better than Derek Lowe, at least for one night. It came at the cost, however, of a re-aggravated knee.

This seems too unbelievable, but I'll pass it along anyway without confirmation. The Mets will be paying Bobby Bonilla $1.2 million next year. And every year until 2035.

Johan Santana got a fine, no suspension, after his retaliation attempt.

Even though the Mets would probably get nothing for him after their waiver moves, Gary Sheffield expects to be moved before the season is through.

Around the NL East

There is a fair amount of buzz around Washington that acting GM Mike Rizzo is on his way out. One rumor has Steve Phillips' name tied to the job. Another has a new manager playing a big role in the front office (Bobby anyone?) On the field, the Nationals fell to the Rockies 4-3.

Don't expect the Nationals to call up Stephen Strasburg this year. BtB explains why Washington got their money's worth. Bob Nightengale pulls out the absurd credibility argument.

Pedro started for the Phillies last night, but was victim of a rain delay and didn't get past 3 innings. Jamie Moyer seems well adjusted to the long man role and got the win for Philadelphia over Arizona.

The Marlins collected 10 hits for the 14th straight game and beat up on the Astros, 6-2. Ricky Nolasco was the beneficiary.

Call them the anti-Mets, the Marlins signed all 12 of their top draft picks.

Around MLB

John Smoltz is expected to sign a deal with the Cardinals and work with Dave Duncan.

Brian Gump talks minor league umpires.

Dayn Perry makes a convincing argument for Joe Mauer as MVP.

The Royals have demoted former top prospect Alex Gordon seemingly to keep him one year further away from free agency.

Ivan Rodriguez is returning to Texas, this time as a backup.

Brian Bannister talks defensive statistics.

The Nippon Ham Fighters have swine flu. If everyone is OK soon, that's kind of funny.