SB Nation - Jason LaRue

The Greatest Reds: #2

riverfront76 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 18:00:19 -0000

2. Johnny Bench

Played as Red	Primary Position	Career Rank	Peak Rank	Prime Rank
1967-1983	C, 3B, 1B	2	2	4
Percent Breakdown of Value			Best Season	Best player on Reds
Hit	Field	Pitch	1972	1970, 1972
72%	28%	0%	1972	1970, 1972
Awards/Honors as a Red	Leading the League		On the Reds Leaderboard
Inducted to Hall of Fame – 1989 Most Valuable Player – 1970, 1972 TSN Player of Year – 1970 Rookie of Year – 1968 World Series MVP – 1976 Lou Gehrig Award – 1975 Babe Ruth Award – 1976 Hutch Award – 1981 Gold Glove – 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977 All Star – 1968, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1972, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976, 1977, 1978, 1979, 1980, 1983	Runs Batted In – 1970, 1972, 1974 Home Runs – 1970, 1972 Extra Base Hits – 1970, 1974 Sacrifice Flies – 1970, 1972, 1973 Intentional Walks – 1972 Total Bases – 1974		-1st in career RBI -1st in career home runs -4th in career runs scored -4th in career doubles -5th in career hits

via artfiles.art.com

Bench is on the short list of the greatest catcher of all time, so there seems little point in what-if scenarios. And the grueling nature of catching makes long-term projections seem suspect. Nonetheless, Johnny Bench—through his age 24 season in 1972—had not only two seasons in which he had 40 or more home runs, but he had also just doubled his walk rate, drawing 100 free passes in 1972. Under typical scenarios and aging patterns, this should have meant some amazing things—if I scale down Bench’s projections from a 1972 vantage point to match his actual playing time over the years due to injuries, etc., he still projected to hit 500 home runs, instead of his actual 389.

As the story goes, a spot was found on an x-ray of Bench’s lungs during the ’72 season, and while the tumor turned out to be benign, he still needed surgery, which—again, as the claim goes—severely impacted Bench’s power at the plate. Maybe it’s true, maybe it’s wishful conjecture from a wistful athlete who happened to peak early, but the fact remains that the early part of Bench’s career was basically meant to blow your mind. Despite being hampered by injury in 1971, Bench had 154 home runs and 512 RBI before turning 25—both representing better starts than Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, or Reggie Jackson, all of whom also got early career starts. For all the impressive hitting stats, by all accounts Bench revolutionized the catcher position defensively. Most fielding statistics cannot possibly do his reputation justice; perhaps only the caught stealing percentages get us close (routinely around 50%, was 13 years into his career before the CS% dropped below 40%), as well as the ten consecutive Gold Glove awards.

The data paints a picture of Bench as a multi-dimensional athlete, especially compared to the prototypical catcher: Bench hit at least one triple in every season until 1979, he was good for a handful of steals every year—peaking at 13 in 1976, and he routinely spelled his legs by playing other positions 20-30 times a year (even playing center field a couple times in 1970). A Cincinnati Red for his entire 17-year career, Bench was productive almost until the end. 1980 was his last season as a regular catcher, crouching behind the plate in 105 games, and hitting for a 123 OPS+. A severely shortened season in 1981 (even beyond the effects of the player strike) left him as a part-time first baseman with a great bat (141 OPS+). The final two years were mostly spent at 3rd base (to poor result, defensively) and hitting right around league average. His legacy is as another lifetime Red, with a cumulative OPS+ of 126 across 8600 plate appearances, with a pair of peak seasons to rival Morgan’s finest.

The Top 15 Catchers in Reds history

1          Johnny Bench
2          Ernie Lombardi
3          Bubbles Hargrave
4          Ed Bailey
5          Johnny Edwards
6          Ray Mueller
7          Ivey Wingo
8          Heinie Peitz
9          Jason LaRue
10        Eddie Taubensee
11        Larry McLean
12        Joe Oliver
13        Farmer Vaughn
14        Tommy Clarke
15        Smoky Burgess

Heroes of the Zeros: Catcher

Slyde — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 13:00:25 -0000

Continuing on with our All Decade ballots, today we look at catcher. The Reds haven't had an All Star catcher since Bo Diaz in 1987, but they've still had what could be considered a solid crop of players at backstop since Johnny Bench retired. None of the guys listed below would likely be on most teams' All Decade squad, but that doesn't mean the Reds have had crap there over the last decade. They managed to get somewhat above average production out of the position a few years over the last 10, even if they weren't consistently good from year to year.

Now that we are into the hitters, let me explain what we'll be doing. For catchers, you will be selecting a starter and a backup, but you won't be doing that for any other position. After we get through all of the positions, I will have a day for selecting a left-handed and right-handed pinch hitter, and I will also take the the top vote-getter in the OF who is not a starter as the backup OF, and the top middle IF non-starting vote getter as the utility IF. That will give us a full 25-man roster for the decade.

So, if you are having a hard time deciding who should be the backup catcher, remember that the guy has a shot at being a pinch hitter, assuming he was used in that fashion frequently enough. Ballot is after the jump.

Other ballots: Starting Rotation | Bullpen

Click header to sort table by column
	Years	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	wOBA	WAR
Paul Bako	2008	99	338	299	30	65	11	2	6	35	34	90	.217	.299	.328	.626	64	.271	-0.6
Ryan Hanigan	2007-2009	126	402	346	34	92	9	1	5	22	48	42	.266	.363	.341	.704	86	.307	1.5
Ramon Hernandez	2009	81	331	287	25	74	13	1	5	37	33	34	.258	.336	.362	.699	84	.307	0.5
Jason LaRue	2000-2006	679	2441	2136	251	513	120	6	81	293	186	613	.240	.326	.416	.741	91	.314	6.2
Corky Miller	2001-2009	104	342	288	24	57	13	0	7	36	33	69	.198	.301	.316	.617	61	.276	0.0
Chad Moeller	2007	30	49	48	6	8	1	0	1	2	0	17	.167	.167	.250	.417	4	.175	-0.6
Dave Ross	2006-2008	254	817	692	86	157	34	1	41	104	99	203	.227	.324	.457	.780	96	.318	3.3
Benito Santiago	2000	89	277	252	22	66	11	1	8	45	19	45	.262	.310	.409	.719	79	.292	0.1
Kelly Stinnett	2001-2003	157	518	459	51	110	29	0	15	57	45	137	.240	.318	.401	.719	86	.306	-0.1
Eddie Taubensee	2000	81	291	266	29	71	12	0	6	24	21	44	.267	.324	.380	.704	76	.310	-1.3
Javier Valentin	2004-2008	441	1086	981	107	259	56	2	34	149	93	154	.264	.326	.429	.755	93	.322	1.0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
Generated 12/15/2009.

Tuesday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:30:24 -0000

More photos » by Darren Hauck - AP

Pretty much everyone except Doug Melvin seems to think the Brewers should offer arbitration to Felipe Lopez.

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Some things to read while not getting what you hoped for.

The Brewers have until 11 pm tonight to finalize their plan to offer or decline arbitration to five free agents, and while Tom H. seems to think the Brewers will extend an offer to Felipe Lopez, Adam McCalvy is reporting the team is "leaning against" making the offer to any of the five (FanShot).

All of this is another episode in the "Doug Melvin Moments" series I think most of us are getting increasingly sick of. Doug, we get it. Times are tough for the ever-so-downtrodden small-to-mid market GM with the job many of us would kill for. If the system is really so unbearable, you're welcome to quit and be replaced by someone who will spend more time working with the tools they have and less time bitching about the ones they don't.

Assuming Melvin does eventually get off his soapbox and get back to the task of improving the team, Wisconsin Sports Tap has a guide for prospective new Brewers that can help them avoid becoming the next Jeff Suppan, Bill Hall or Johnny Estrada.

With that said, it might be a while before we have news on Mark Mulder. Roguejim uncovered a story yesterday that sheds some light on Mulder's rehab and situation, and raises the possibility that Mulder will decide not to come back if he's unable to perform at a level he's accustomed to.

We're also probably just about done discussing Kevin Millwood. Rangers beat reporter T.R. Sullivan had this to say about the rumors:

The Rangers wouldn't mind adding pitching but they don't want to subtract it so they are not trying to move Kevin Millwood. Word is the Brewers were interested but Rangers general manager Jon Daniels and Doug Melvin haven't spoke in weeks, That might change at the Winter Meetings but the Rangers still need Millwood's arm far more than they need to move his salary.

Adam McCalvy opened up the mailbag yesterday and answered reader questions on the possibility of a Prince Fielder extension, Dominican prospect Santo Aybar, Lorenzo Cain and Caleb Gindl.

Elsewhere in the minors:

Lisa Winston of MiLB.com has a review of the season for the Brewer minor leagues, and a look at the attempt to build pitching depth in the system.
Project Prospect has Jonathan Lucroy ranked ninth on their list of baseball's top 15 catching prospects. Angel Salome was not ranked.
The Baseball Chronicle has Alcides Escobar as a backup infielder on their 2010 All Prospect Team. Escobar is on the bench behind Rays prospect Reid Brignac and Cubs SS prospect Starlin Castro, who is playing out of position at second base.
Rattler Radio has photos of the construction at Time Warner Field, where they're hard at work adding the new beach seats, boardwalk and bullpens.

Up for some arbitrary list-making today? Miller Park Drunk has a list of the top ten Brewers of the decade. It's worth a click for the picture, if nothing else.

John Axford might have an outside shot at winning a spot in the Brewer bullpen next spring, depending on how rest of the offseason goes. In the meantime, he spent yesterday talking to college students about life in the big leagues and the importance of education.

On the transaction log:

Cardinals: Re-signed catcher Jason LaRue and signed infielder Ruben Gotay to a minor league deal.
Mets: Signed catcher Chris Coste, and re-signed infielder Alex Cora to a one year deal worth $2 million.
Pirates: Signed reliever Wil Ledezma to a minor league deal and released catcher Robinzon Diaz.

Wondering what it might take for the Brewers to acquire Edwin Jackson? Here's a hint: The Mariners reportedly turned down an offer from the Tigers would have sent Jackson to Seattle for pitchers Brandon Morrow and Shawn Kelley. So apparently the price is pretty high.

If the Brewers are serious about making an effort to sign Justin Duchscherer, they may have competition within the division: MLB Trade Rumors says the Pirates are one of the interested teams.

The Brewers probably won't be players in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes, but odds are the competition will heat up soon. Halladay has reportedly told the Blue Jays he won't accept any deal after reporting to spring training in February.

With the Winter Meetings coming up, we have more Rule 5 Draft notes: Baseball Time In Arlington has a look at the top ten unprotected pitchers, including former Brewer farmhand Will Inman.

Yesterday I mentioned the voting for the third baseman on the Timber Rattlers' 15th Anniversary team, and left a comment on Rattler Radio asking about the fate of top contender Bo Robinson, who had a few promising seasons in the Mariner organization before dropping off the map in 2002. Within 24 hours the answer was the subject of this week's Mehring Monday. Impressive turnaround time, to be sure.

I'm a few days behind on this one, but I recently discovered Cooperstown Chatter, the MLBlog run by the Baseball Hall of Fame, and this post on Rollie Fingers' 1981 MVP season. It's almost as impressive as Matt Stairs having a street named after him in Fredericton, New Brunswick.

By the way, if you've ever been to the Baseball Hall of Fame, or you haven't but would like to go someday, you can become a fan on Facebook. As an added bonus, Facebook fans get to help in the voting for this year's broadcaster induction.

On this day in 1967, Seattle was awarded an American League expansion franchise. I guess that makes today the Brewers' date of conception?

Happy birthday today to Tom Filer, who posted a 4.32 ERA in 39 appearances as a Brewer during the '88-'90 seasons and turns 53, and to Julio Machado, who spent parts of the 1990 and 1991 seasons as a Brewer before being arrested for murder in Venezuela. He turns 44.

Oh, and I haven't actually watched it yet (no sound on the computer where I write the Mug), but this video has Rammstein and Cookie Monster, so what could possibly go wrong?

Drink up.

Dodgers, Cardinals Set Rosters for NLDS

Eric Stephen — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 18:31:23 -0000

More photos » by Jae C. Hong - AP

Emperor Palpatine takes questions before tonight's game

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NLDS: Cardinals vs. Dodgers
Game 1	Tonight	Dodger Stadium	6:37pm
Game 2	Thu	Dodger Stadium	3:07pm
Game 3	Sat	Busch Stadium	3:07pm
Game 4*	Sun	Busch Stadium	TBD
Game 5*	Oct 13	Dodger Stadium	TBD
*if necessary		All times Pacific
All games televised on TBS

The Dodgers and Cardinals have announced their roster for the division series.

Dodgers

Catchers (2): Russell Martin, Brad Ausmus

Infielders (7): James Loney, Ronnie Belliard, Rafael Furcal, Casey Blake, Orlando Hudson, Juan Castro, Mark Loretta

Outfielders (4): Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Juan Pierre

Pinch Hitters (1): Jim Thome

Starting Pitchers (4): Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, Chad Billingsley

Relievers (7): Jonathan Broxton, George Sherrill, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ronald Belisario, Ramon Troncoso, Jon Garland, Jeff Weaver

Cardinals

Catchers (2): Yadier Molina, Jason LaRue

Infielders (7): Albert Pujols, Skip Schumaker, Julio Lugo, Brendan Ryan, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Old Friend Joe Thurston

Outfielders (4): Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick, Rick Ankiel

Starting Pitchers (4): Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, Joel Pineiro, one of John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse

Relievers (8): Ryan Franklin, Kyle McClellan, Jason Motte, Trever Miller, Dennys Reyes, Blake Hawksworth, Mitchell Boggs, one of Smoltz or Lohse

The Dodgers starting rotation will be Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Vicente Padilla, and Chad Billingsley, in that order.

The Cardinals will counter with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro for the first three games. Either John Smoltz or Kyle Lohse, who will both be available in the bullpen tonight, will start game four on Sunday.

Homers in the lineup, Homer's on the mound. Can't nobody beat us, we're the best damn team around! Reds win, 7-2.

Brendanukkah — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 03:01:20 -0000

More photos » by Al Behrman - AP

Jay Bruce doesn't like autotune. (AP Photo/Al Behrman)

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Joe Nuxhall Memorial Honorary Star of the Game

Jay Bruce. Hova went 2-4, but his Two Bomb Turks provided five RBI, a career high.

Key Plays

In the second inning, Brandon Phillips used his speed to reach on an infield single, and Scott Rolen drew a walk. Then Jay Bruce announced that he was here to hit home runs and chew bubble gum... and he was all outta bubble gum. Reds 3, Cardinals 0.
Joey Votto then made a matching donation to Jay Bruce's Give Kids In the Outfield Seats a Baseball Fund. Reds 4, Cardinals 0.
The Cardinals began to threaten in the fifth inning. Jason LaRue got an infield hit (!), Skip Schumaker walked. Julio Lugo singled to load the bases with one out and Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday coming to the plate. Pujols hit a sacrifice fly, and Holliday grounded out to second. One run scored in a very Classic Reds performance. Reds 4, Cardinals 1.
Bartender! Gimme some triple sec! ...Which is my Neil Everett way of saying Brandon Phillips tripled in the sixth. Scott Rolen singled him in, and then Jay Bruce hit his second homer of the night to put the Reds up, 7-1.
Someone named D Freese hit a home run for St. Louis in the ninth inning. REDS WINNARS!

via FanGraphs

Other Notes

This was Jay Bruce's third multihomer game of the season and fifth of his career.
Speaking of five of things, Albert Pujols has five grand slams this season. His sacrifice fly was darn close to being number six.
"Cardinal-eater" Homer Bailey is now 1-3 against the Cards with a 7.06 ERA in five starts.
However, Homer is 5-1 with a 1.89 ERA over his last eight starts.
Jay Bruce now has career highs in home runs and RBI. Votto is one home run and three RBI from setting career highs in those marks. Hey, remember all those times that Votto's come to bat with two runners on ahead of him?

Final - 9.29.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
St. Louis Cardinals	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	9	0
Cincinnati Reds	0	3	1	0	0	3	0	0	X	7	8	0
WP: Homer Bailey (7 - 5) LP: Joel Pineiro (15 - 12)

Complete Coverage >

St. Louis Cardinals Get Two Three-Run HR's, Beat Washington Nationals 9-4.

Ed Chigliak — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 06:09:49 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

3 months ago: Washington Nationals starting pitcher Craig Stammen reacts as St. Louis Cardinals' Matt Holliday circles the bases after hitting a three-run home run in the third inning of a baseball game, Saturday, Aug. 29, 2009 in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Tom Gannam)

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E: 17, 115:

To be fair to Cristian Guzman, Albert Pujols, who was running from second, did momentarily block his view, stopping, before running to third, so that Guzman didn't see the ball hit toward short off Ryan Ludwick's bat until it passed the big Cardinals' slugger, but the Nationals' shortstop was still given a two-out error when it bounced off his knee and into center. Pujols scored from first on Guzman's 17th E of '09, which also ended Stammen's night, and Matt Holliday went first to third to put two on for Colby Rasmus, who launched a two-out, three-run HR to right of Washington's lefty reliever Ron Villone to put St. Louis up 7-2 after five innings of play tonight in Busch Stadium.

DC starter Craig Stammen didn't make it out of the fifth. Nationals' Manager Jim Riggleman lifted Stammen after he allowed 4 hits, 4 walks and 6 runs, the three scored after Guzman's E unearned of course, but still on the board, and the other three earned with one swing when Matt Holliday took umbrage with the intentional walk of Albert Pujols that preceded his AB and hit a 3-run HR of his own on a first-pitch fastball from Stammen that didn't quite make it all the way inside. It was 3-1 Cardinals at that point, 5-2 after Rasmus' blast and 9-3 after back to back RBI hits by Brendan Ryan and Albert Pujols in the sixth, and a 9-4 final after Ryan Zimmerman's RBI single in the seventh ended the scoring. Cardinals right-hander Mitchell Boggs (2-2, 4.57) got his second win of the season for 6.0 innings of work over which he allowed 8 hits, 1 BB, 3 ER and 1 HR. St. Louis' skipper Tony LaRussa uses four separate pitchers with a 9-3 lead, but who can blame the Cardinals for making sure they get the win with the post season at stake...

Cardinals win, 9-4 final.

Miss The Game? The DC Faithful Were Watching...

Check Out The SB Nation's St. Louis Cardinals Blog: Viva El Birdos GameThread.

BACKPAGE:

• #35

• "Perfect" Pete Orr Goes 4 for 4.

For the Completists, Full Game Reports After The JUMP...

Nationals now 46-84. (Countdown To 100 Losses Stands At...16)

BACKPAGE:

• #35

Mitchell Boggs, the Cards' hard-throwing right-hander will probably think twice before he throws Adam Dunn a first-pitch fastball waist high over the outside edge of the plate again, since it was hit so far the St. Louis fans had time to, "Ahhhh!" as it soared out to right. Dunn's no-doubter is the Nationals' big boppers' 35th of the season, five off his trademark total with 32 games to go. In 21 games and 92 plate appearances in April, Dunn hits 6 HR's, in 29 games and 126 plate appearances in May, Dunn connected for 10, 4 in 26 games and 108 PA's in June, and 6 in 26 games and 101 plate appearances in July, with 9 HR's (so far) in August and thirty-two games to go...Does anyone doubt Dunn does it? NEW POLL!!!

• "Perfect" Pete Orr Goes 4 for 4.

I made the mistake of calling "Pinch Hittin'" Pete Orr a gritty hustler who was "wholly unspectacular" but nonetheless a favorite everywhere he plays because of the effort he puts out each and every game and Orr went out and collected 4 hits in 4 at bats tonight, all singles, to prove his worth and my point.

GAME REPORT:

Washington Nationals At St. Louis Cardinals. Game 130 Of 162.

Cards’ right-hander Mitchell Boggs gets a groundout to first from Willie Harris to start the second of three in St. Louis. Cristian Guzman legs out a triple on a sharp grounder that gets by Pujols at first and rolls into the corner. Ryan Zimmerman flies to the track in right allowing Guzman to tag and score. 1-0 Nationals. Adam Dunn archs a line drive over Mark DeRosa at short for a two-out single. Mitchell Boggs gets Josh Willingham to chase a two-strike slider out of the zone...Skip Schumaker doubles into the left field gap off DC right-hander Craig Stammen to start the Cards’ first. Brendan Ryan grounds to short and Schumaker breaks for third and gets cut down, Zimmerman with the tag. Alberto Pujols pops out to Adam Dunn foul of first. Ryan Zimmerman catches a pop fly from Matt Holliday in front of the third base dugout. 1-0 DC after one.

Elijah Dukes grounds out to short to start the second. Pete Orr lines a single to center with one down. Wil Nieves grounds back to the mound, Boggs to Schumaker to Pujols, double play...Ryan Ludwick starts the St. Louis' second with a base on balls. Colby Rasmus grounds into a force at second. Rasmus steals second without a throw when Wil Nieves rushes and loses it. Stammen issues a two-out walk to Mark DeRosa. Jason LaRue pops out to third, and Stammen gets Boggs looking at a two-strike curve.

Craig Stammen grounds out to short. Willie Harris hits a one-out single over second that drops into the grass. Cristian Guzman grounds to first, Albert Pujols throws to second to get Harris, but Guzman’s safe at first. Ryan Zimmerman grounds to short and DeRosa takes the force at second...Skip Schumaker gets robbed by a sprinting Willie Harris, who gets to left center on a hard hit liner. Brendan Ryan singles up the middle with one down. Stammen throws a high full-count fastball to walk Pujols. Stammen doesn’t keep his fastball low enough and Holliday lifts it off the inside corner for a three-run blast. 3-1 Cardinals. Stammen gets Ryan Ludwick swinging. Colby Rasmus flies to left to end the third. 3-1 Cards.

Adam Dunn pops out to the catcher. Josh Willingham takes a full count fastball down low for a one-out walk. Elijah Dukes rips a single through short. Pete Orr goes the other way to load the bases on a line drive to left. Wil Nieves grounds out to score Hammer from third, 3-2. Craig Stammen pops out to end the inning...Cristian Guzman throws out Mark DeRosa. Jason LaRue can’t swing at a two-strike slider that breaks across the zone for strike three. Mitchell Boggs K’s looking too.

Willie Harris flies out to left field to start the fifth. Cristian Guzman grounds to first, Boggs gets over to cover. Ryan Ludwick goes back to the wall to catch Ryan Zimmerman’s fly ball...Stammen vs Schumaker in the fifth. Schumaker grounds out to second. Brendan Ryan flies out to Willie Harris in the right-center gap. Albert Pujols torches a double to left, one hop and off the wall with two down. Holliday gets a free pass. Ryan Ludwick grounds to short, and Pujols blocks Guzman’s view, the ball bounces off Guzman and flies into center, one run scores, 4-2 Cards. Ron Villone comes on to face the lefty Colby Rasmus. Rasmus destroys a fastball over the middle of the plate, GONE!! 3-run HR to right. DeRosa lines out to end the frame. 7-2 Cardinals.

Adam Dun---SHAKE N BAKE!! SHAKE N BAKE!!! Adam Dunn goes real deep to right for his 35th HR of the year. 7-3 Cardinals. Elijah Dukes pops out to first. Pete Orr hits a two-out double to right. Wil Nieves is robbed by a diving Skip Schumaker at second, 7-3 Cardinals, middle of six...Jorge Sosa takes over for DC. Jason LaRue pops out to Pete Orr at second. Pinch hitter Joe Thurston pops out. Skip Schumaker doubles to the left field corner. Brendan Ryan gets a single through second to score Schumaker, 8-3 Cardinals. Albert Pujols doubles in a run off the center field wall, 9-3 Cardinals. Holliday grounds out to second to mercifully end the sixth.

Mike Morse grounds out to start the seventh. Kyle McClellan on to pitch for St. Louis. Willie Harris works a one-out walk. Cristian Guzman splits the right-center gap with a low line drive single. Zimmerman singles through short, Harris scores from second, 9-4 St. Louis. Lefty Trever Miller on to face Dunn. Adam Dunn lines out to Ludwick in right. Josh Willingham will see a new pitcher. Jason Motte vs The Hammer. Motte walks Willingham to load the bases for Dukes. Dukes K’s looking at two pitches out of the zone...Saul Rivera gets a groundout from Ryan Ludwick to start the Cards’ seventh. Colby Rasmus goes opposite field with a line drive single to left. Mark DeRosa follows with a single to right. LaRue grounds to short, Guzman to Orr to Dunn at first, double play.

Motte’s back in the eighth. Pete Orr hits a broken bat single to center. Wil Nieves K’s swinging over a two-strike curve. Ronnie Belliard grounds into the inning-ender, DP by the Cards to end DC’s eighth...Jason Bergmann comes on for the Nationals. Rick Ankiel takes a leadoff walk. Skip Schumaker lines to right for a single. Brendan Ryan grounds out but moves both runners over, opening up first for Pujols, who gets the intentionals. Matt Holliday goes down swinging. Ryan Ludwick goes down chasing, 9-4 Cardinals after eight.

Willie Harris vs Brad Thompson. Harris takes strike three on a fastball up high. Cristian Guzman pops out to second. Ryan Zimmerman’s bat explodes as he grounds out to first, game over. Cards win, 9-4 final.

Nationals now 46-84.

Poll

Will Adam Dunn Reach 40 HR's?

Without A Doubt! Shake N Bake!!! Dunn Will Hit 40!!!!

60 votes

Not This Year! Dunn Finally Falls Short Of 40!!!

6 votes

Dunn Will Not Only Hit 40 HR's, He's Going To Top His Career High Of 46!!!

9 votes

75 votes | Poll has closed

And for my next trick...

chuckb — Thu, 30 Jul 2009 06:00:20 -0000

More photos » by Tom Mihalek - AP

You're not going to find your head w/ a half-hearted effort like that, Todd!(AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

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It’s miscellaneous numbers day here at VEB and I intend to start w/ the dominance of our pitching staff. One of the truest measures of a pitcher’s dominance is his ability to induce swinging strikes. If a pitcher can get a hitter to swing and miss, he’s got good stuff. Which pitcher has the highest percentage of swinging strikes on our staff? The answer is Dennys Reyes, coming in at a robust (you didn’t think I could mention his name w/o some sort of pun, did you?) 19%. (He’s actually tied w/ Mitch Boggs.) Here are the numbers in full:

	# of strikes	% looking	% swinging
Reyes	223	29	19
Boggs	231	26	19
Miller	241	29	17
Wainwright	1419	31	15
Carp	895	28	15
Motte	392	27	15
Franklin	368	32	14
Wellemeyer	1096	26	13
Lohse	751	32	12
McClellan	415	28	12
Pineiro	1164	29	9

It’s something that Pineiro, w/ his success this year, is at the bottom of this list but you should also notice that only Wainwright’s thrown more strikes this year and, in fact, he’s averaging only 3.43 P/PA – lowest on the team outside of Brad Thompson. To me, Boggs’ appearance at the top of this list is notable in light of Wellemeyer’s struggles this year. To me, despite the fact that he’s thrown just 400 pitches so far this year, his 19% swing and miss rate is an indicator that he can get big league hitters out. I’m not Tony, of course, but I’d trust him more than Wellemeyer every 5 days. (I’m posting this Sunday night as I’m heading to St. Louis to watch the series against the Dodgers so hopefully by Thursday, Boggs will have replaced Wellemeyer in the rotation.)

Next, we all know that "there is no such thing as ‘personal catchers’ w/ Tony so you can dismiss this next bit of information as completely irrelevant.

Pitchers’ ERAs by catcher in 2009:

	era
Yadi	3.71
LaRue	4.44

Yadi’s clearly the better catcher, right? Pitchers perform better w/ Yadi behind the plate, correct? Now try this one on for size:

Games started by pitcher w/ Jason LaRue behind the plate:

	# of starts
Wellemeyer	8
Thompson	2
Lohse	2
Pineiro	1
Boggs	1

Maybe we can’t tell much from catchers’ ERAs after all.

Finally, one of the unheralded elements of baseball is a player’s ability to run the bases. Generally speaking, faster players are better base runners than slower runners, ceteris paribus, b/c their speed allows them to take the extra base more often. They also steal more bases than slower base runners, by and large. So let’s take a look at some of the Cards’ base running stats for the season so far.

First of all, BP – which most agree does base running stats as well or better than anyone – has the Cards as the majors’ 9th best base running team so far this season and 5th in the NL. They have us as adding 2.56 runs as a team just by being able to take the extra base and steal bases well. Now, it’s important to understand that that’s only a quarter of 1 win but it translates to about 4 runs over a full season. So while base running matters, the difference between the majors’ best base running team and the worst is about 3 – 3.5 wins over a full season. Last year the difference was 33 runs – about 3 1/3 wins.

As far as our best and worst base runners go, it should come as no surprise that Yadi and Joe Thurston are at the bottom – Yadi b/c he’s slower than D.C. rush hour traffic and Thurston b/c it seems like every time he reaches base he’s pulling a Suppan-in-the-’04-Series base running snafu. At the top of the list is that guy who still has a lot to learn about playing this darn game. EQBRR is Equivalent Base Running Runs which is equal, essentially, by players advancing on hits, ground outs, fly balls, as well as stolen bases. Lugo’s, DeRosa’s, and Holliday’s numbers include their numbers from their previous teams.

	EQBRR
Rasmus	2.38
Ludwick	1.56
Schumaker	1.47
Ryan	1.00
Lugo	0.00
Ankiel	-0.09
Pujols	-0.58
DeRosa	-0.68
Holliday	-0.74
Thurston	-1.07
Yadi	-2.84

Rasmus’s numbers place him 25th in the majors while Yadi’s place him (gulp!) 687th. Many of you are saying, "Bullshit! Albert’s one of the best base runners in baseball. Proof is in the fact that he leads the team in steals!" My response to that is that Albert does the best he can w/ what he’s got but he’s just not very fast. He does run the bases extremely well but he also has physical limitations that don’t allow him to take as many extra bases as many other players take. Albert is actually least effective in taking the extra base on hits and on what BP calls "Equivalent Other Advancement Runs" which, I suppose, means advancing on wild pitches, passed balls, taking the extra base on overthrows or going to third on bad pickoffs at 1st…stuff like that. Again, as you see, the difference between the team’s best and the team’s worst nearly 2/3 of the way through the season is about half a win but, as close as this division is and will likely be the rest of the way, every half a win counts.

Astros offense explodes, the bullpen implodes, but Wandy still gets the W: Cards 6 — Astros 11

DyingQuail — Wed, 22 Jul 2009 03:46:40 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Sa-sa-sa-sa-saaaaa-see-ya

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We could almost just go ahead and gloss over the first six innings of this game because it wasn't until the seventh that this one got...interesting is about the mildest way to put it. Wandy didn't have his best stuff in the first few innings, but he dialed it in to cruise through 7IP and even contributed offensively in what would be an explosive bottom of the seventh.

Let's break it down:

Wandy Rodriguez's line: 7IP, 4H, 1R, 1ER, 5K, 0BB with 6GB and 10FB on 104 pitches (71 strikes).
Hunter Pence started the Astros off with a 2-run HR in the second to give the Astros a lead they would never relinquish (try as Chad Paronto might, though).
Miguel Tejada was 2/5 with 3 RBIs on two singles and a sac fly.
Chris Coste did an admirable job standing in for Lance Berkman with an RBI double in the fourth and played solid defense.
Carlos Lee hit a 316 foot grand slam to ice—or what seemed like icing at the time—the Cardinals after TLR ordered an IBB of Miguel Tejada. Way to make'em pay big guy.
Geoff Blum had an amazing snare to rob Jason LaRue of a double in the top of the seventh and hit a homerun in the bottom of the frame before Carlos Lee could even finish his curtain call.

Chad Paronto entered the 8th in what looked like a ball game that was over, but oh it wasn't. Oh was it not:

Brendan Ryan doubled a ball that caromed off the Crawford Boxes and made Carlos Lee look a little silly in the field.
Skip Schumaker walked and then a passed ball advanced Ryan to third.
Nick Stavinoha hit a sac fly to score Ryan.
In stepped Albert Pujols which was nerve racking, but a 1B to left limited the damage to runners at first and second.
Ryan Ludwick clocked a HR.
Mark DeRosa tattooed his second HR of the night into our bullpen off Wesley Wright.
Thankfully the Cardinals bullpen hasn't heard of momentum and Miguel Tejada's sac fly was able to take the proverbial wind out of the Cardinals proverbial sails. I was kind of hoping that TLR would sucker punch Dennys Reyes when he pulled him.

The good news in all of that is that it really had no real impact on our odds of winning the game. Going into the 8th the Astros had a 99.9% chance of winning, and the low point after DeRosa bomb was 97.6%. See for yourself:

via www.fangraphs.com

With the Cubs extra inning loss to the Phillies and the Astros series clinching victory (how's that for the keynote address I was looking for?) here's how the NL Central shakes out:

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis	51	45	.531	0	Lost 2
Houston	48	46	.510	2	Won 2
Milwaukee	48	46	.510	2	Won 1
Chicago	47	45	.510	2	Lost 2
Cincinnati	44	48	.478	5	Lost 1
Pittsburgh	41	52	.440	8.5	Lost 1

(updated 7.21.2009 at 10:42 PM CDT)

With Roy on the mound tomorrow against Carpenter, the great match-up will have a lot riding on it (we could be one game out!!!!).

Cardinals vs Astros boxscore ; Cardinals vs Astros recap ; Cardinals vs Astros coverage ; Viva El Birdos

Twins Take Series, Liriano Pitches Well

Jesse — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 22:03:47 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Francisco Liriano throwing, or perhaps performaing the happy dance, during a baseball game against the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday, June 28, 2009, in St. Louis. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)

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I love it when that happens.

Francisco Liriano pitched the best he has in what seems like a long time, notching four 1-2-3 innings en route to his two-run, seven-inning performance. His only base runner through the first four innings was a walk, but the most important storyline for Cisco today was his effort during a rough fifth inning.

St. Louis kicked off the bottom of the fifth by notching two doubles on as many pitches, before a Jason LaRue single made it three hits on three pitches. The inning was literally just seconds old, and the Cardinals were scorching Liriano; two runs had scored.

Liriano drew Cards starter Joel Pineiro next, which may have been fortunate. After getting Pineiro, Liriano fought off Tyler Green and Skip Schumaker for the second and third outs to end the inning to effectively end the scoring for the day. It was an ugly start to the inning to be sure, but to see him settle down and focus, and then to keep it up for two more innings, was one of the most encouraging things we've seen from Liriano all season. For the day, Cisco struck out six over seven innings while walking a pair and surrendering just four hits. The 97 pitches he threw (64 for strikes) over seven is infinitely more effective than the 117 over five that he threw the last time out.

Pineiro, meanwhile, was largely as-advertised. He walked nobody, and while he gave up eight hits over his six-plus innings the biggest one came in the first. After Denard Span reached on a throwing error and Joe Mauer singled, Justin Morneau launched his 17th home run of the year. Pineiro had worked him away the entire at-bat, until he came inside with a 2-2 fastball.

Justin went boom.

The 3-0 lead would be enough for the win in the end, but the offense wasn't done. An RBI by Brendan Harris and a pair by Jason Kubel solidified the offensive effort. R.A. Dickey made it interesting in the ninth before Joe Nathan came in to put out the fire, but the score held and the Twins walk away series winners once again. Minnesota is 14-11 in June, including a 9-7 road record.

If the Twins can continue at this pace they'll still be in the picture come September, but they still need to put something together to get themselves into a better position for the sprint to the finish. They have three in Kansas City before a day off, then nine home games lead into the All-Star break. The Yankees, Tigers and White Sox will be in town. Winning two of three means an 8-4 run, giving Minnesota a palatable 47-42 record going into the break.

More Twins/Cardinals coverage from SB Nation.
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Stars of the Game
#3: Jason Kubel (3-for-4, 2B, RBI, .075 WPA)
#2: Justin Morneau (1-for-4, HR, 3 RBI, R, .101 WPA)
#1: Francisco Liriano (7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 2 R, .213 WPA)

Friday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Fri, 29 May 2009 14:45:24 -0000

More photos » by Gus Ruelas - AP

This is not Seth McClung.

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Some things to read while eliminating your accomplishments.

Last year it was C.C. Sabathia, and in 2009 Trevor Hoffman is filling the role of well-known player who brings national attention to Milwaukee. Hoffman was profiled in the New York Times this week, discussing life in Milwaukee (or in his case, his lack thereof) and his impact on the bullpen.

One of the pitchers Hoffman has helped is Todd Coffey, but he apparently hasn't found a way to help fans tell the difference between Coffey and Seth McClung.

Maybe a new haircut would help. Mark DiFelice is the man for the job.

Adam McCalvy's new ~~mailbag~~ inbox is up, and features notes on Chris Capuano, Alcides Escobar, Geoff Jenkins, Jake Peavy, Jorge Julio and Ryan Braun.

Another homestand, another ghost story: This week, Cardinals SS Brendan Ryan reported some paranormal activity at the Pfister Hotel, but later recanted the story. Tony LaRussa says the ghosts are good friends.

Not everyone made friends in Milwaukee this week. Cute Sports has the video of Jason LaRue narrowly avoiding getting trampled by sausages.

"Sausage tramplings" were probably not among the criteria considered when the Brewers were nominated for SportsBusiness Journal's Professional Franchise of the Year.

Frank Catalanotto has already done a fair amount to endear himself to the fans in Milwaukee, but Beyond the Box Score lists him among 23 players who have seen significant big league time despite being below replacement level.

The Journal Sentinel has added a searchable, sortable database of every Brewer home run in the Miller Park era. I haven't had a chance to go take a look at it yet, but I'm glad they're making the effort. Baseball Reference also recently added a database of every home run in major league history.

Down in the minors, Cole Gillespie, BCB's #10 prospect, is struggling a bit with the adjustment to AAA. Gillespie is hitting .212/.342/.323 in Nashville and At The Old Ball Game is calling for his head.

Just one power ranking to report today: Yahoo has bumped the Crew down from sixth to seventh.

Around baseball:

Dodgers: Placed Will Ohman on the DL.
Phillies: Brett Myers has fraying in the labrum in his hip that will likely require surgery and cost him the rest of 2009.

As you've probably heard (and as noted in the comments in yesterday's Mug), Carlos Zambrano has been suspended for six games for making contact with an umpire and generally making a scene earlier this week. Jorge Says No! says six games wasn't enough. The Chicago Tribune is reporting Zambrano won't skip a start, and will instead be pushed back two days.

Elsewhere in transactions, it was a rare "coming and going" day for former Brewers in Cleveland, as Zach Jackson was sent to AAA and replaced by Tomo Ohka.

Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic wants D-Backs third baseman Mark Reynolds to be in the Home Run Derby this year, citing the entertainment value of watching Reynolds hit massive home runs. That got me thinking: while the Home Run Derby is fun as it is, I'd probably be more likely to watch it if the rules were changed, and hitters were looking to hit the longest home run, instead of the most. Imagine Mark Reynolds, Prince Fielder, Russell Branyan and the like competing to see who can be the first to launch one out of Busch Stadium. I'd watch it.

Speaking of Branyan, since moving into a full-time role in Seattle he's hitting over .300 and striking out less, and Lookout Landing is pretty excited about it.

Looking to make a list of players who might be available in the trade market? MLB Trade Rumors has a list of eleven teams whose postseason chances have fallen below 10%. BP's PECOTA-adjusted projection gives the Brewers a 38% chance at winning the Central, higher than any other team.

Roy Halladay is old school. On Wednesday, he pitched seven full innings in his eleventh consecutive start, tied for the fifteenth longest streak to start a season since 1954. Among the others with 11 are former Brewers Bill Wegman, Chris Bosio and Jerry Augustine, and legendary Milwaukee Brave Warren Spahn.

A few weeks ago, Jeff previewed the D3 World Series in Appleton. He was joined in attendance by Kirbir, who live tweeted the event and made it the focus of her Pictures of the Week post. Now, Jeff has a review of the event, and a look at how his prediction models fared.

Here's a cool feel-good story: Rock band They Might Be Giants is sponsoring a little league team in Seattle. (h/t C. Trent Rosecrans.)

Oh, and happy birthday to Charlie Hayes, who played for the 2000 Brewers and turns 44 today.

Drink up.