SB Nation - Tony Pena

Who Was Your Least Favorite Royal of 2009?

royalsreview — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 04:37:10 -0000

More photos » by Lori Shepler - AP

7 months ago: Kansas City Royals right fielder Jose Guillen can't catch the ball as Los Angeles Angels second baseman Howie Kendrick (47) hits an inside-the-park home run during the sixth inning of a baseball game in Anaheim, Calif., Friday, May 8, 2009. (AP Photo/Lori Shepler)

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Despite Zack Greinke's greatness, nobody really liked the 2009 Royals. Dayton made a number of bizarre signings during the off-season, then responded with even stranger ones in-season.

So who was your least favorite Royal of 2009?

The Nominees:

Kyle Farnsworth: A brilliant symbol of both Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman's weaknesses. Signed to a 2 year/$9 million dollar contract in the off-season that everyone hated. Was inexplicably named the setup-man/8th inning guy on Opening Day Eve by Hillman. Everyone thought this was insane. Farnsy gave up game-losing bomb the next day. Hey continued to fail until he was demoted, then he went on a long scoreless innings streak. Farnsworth ended up posting his lowest HR/9 numbers in ages, and still was below average.

Mike Jacobs: Jacobs didn't replicate his career year, another stroke of terrible luck to befall Dayton Moore. Gloriously managed a sub-.300 OBP. Could not handle the easiest position on the field. Frequently swung hard. Chewed gigantic amounts of tobacco while at the plate.

Jose Guillen: Ended the debate about his suckitude by achieving near perfect negative value. Hit .242/.314/.367 with absolutely horrific defense. Showed tremendous ability to turn fly ball outs into home runs for the other team. Has potential to unknowingly play a key role in the next game-fixing scandal. Hated by half the teams in the game. Contract is among worst in professional sports. Bonus status as the captain of Dayton's Awful Ex-Mariners Team.

Josh Anderson: Acquired by Dayton Moore in July for no apparent reason. Anderson had not hit before and he did not hit as a Royal, posting a .237/.268/.288. (Let's be fair, he has the ability to post a .280 OBP in full-time action.) Was a favorite late-game toy of Hillman. Does not appear to have blood.

Yuniesky Betancourt: Mysteriously picked up by Dayton Moore mid-season. Has no apparent strengths as a player. Has bizarre name. Costs much more than the minimum salary. Played key role in letting fans know that team is run by people who are ... ah, what's the point?

Willie Bloomquist: St. Willie turned in the greatest .265/.308/.355 season by a guy without a position in history. This was the Dayton Moore move that "worked" and .308 OBP, in Royalsville, is nothing to sneeze at.

Ryan Freel: Owning a .140/.275/.140 line with the Orioles & Cubs, Freel was acquired by Moore leading up to the trade deadline. Absolutely tore the cover off the ball as a Royal (.244/.306/.289) and told many fantastic stories about how he avoided the Vietnam War.

Jamey Wright: Could not sustain 0.00 ERA through first five minutes as a Royal, in more bad luck. Although quickly earning trusted status in Hillman's bullpen, posted a 4.90 ERA in next 57 games. Appeared in tie games constantly (13). Actually, he just appeared constantly.

Tony Pena Jr: Took epic failure of 2008 to a new level in 2009, posting an incredible .098/.132/.118 line. Played crucial role in delivering the Yuni-Bomb to Kansas City. Amazing shift to a pitching career, a move straight out of a message board if there ever was one, hurts his hate-ability however.

Sidney Ponson: Provided Royals with valuable depth in 2009: you can never have enough bad pitchers. Poison pill contract and fate led to him starting the 2009 Home Opener, the opening of the newly renovated K. Against the Yankees. Surprised fans with better than expected 7.36 ERA.

Horacio Ramirez: Ho-Ram's ex-Brave, ex-Mariner, ex-mildly surprising 2008 move that sorta worked out status, earned him another contract and $1.8 million from Dayton Moore. Sucked from the beginning and was gone by early June. He'll be back.

Introducing DiamondView Composite Player Evaluation

Justin Bopp — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 15:13:02 -0000

The DiamondView Composite Graph tells you everything you need to know about the a batter's strength and weaknesses.

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The last great goal of 20th Century science which continues to this day has been the pursuit of a unified theory of everything that somehow ties quantum mechanics in with particle physics. At least that's my Discovery Channel version. Regardless, I'm not sure how the great minds of our time are coming along on that.

It is much the same for those that pursue the great art of baseball math, Sabermetrics. Infinitely more humble, no doubt, but the relentless pursuit for a unified stat remains there all the same. One magical number that JoeFan can look at and say, "Yes, Tony Pena Jr. is the 278th best player in the Major Leagues that qualifies for a batting title."

Well, this is not that. Rather than attempt a unified stat, which many have tried, I was inspired the other day by Tommy Bennett (BtB Contributor) to come up with and design a visual way of looking at the big picture for batters. I think we might have something here.

(more)

Development

The first step was to determine what represents the overall view of a batter. Fairly simple, just from a 5-tools perspective. Hitting, Power, Base-Running (skills and speed), Throwing, and Fielding.

The second step was to determine which stats we have that best reflect those tenets of baseball lore. On Base Percentage (OBP) makes sense for hitting, of course, as does Isolated Slugging (ISO) for power. For base-running, we can use EqBRR, which is currently the best measure. For fielding and throwing, we'll use Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR/150). All told, we lowered it down to four stats but will have to deal with some wonky stuff for catchers and DHs and what not.

Processing

For charting purposes, Walter and I determined the best course of action was to adjust each chosen stat to a percentage of the current best player in that stat. The best score in that particular stat would result in a 100%, and everybody below would rank accordingly. Each player should have his 4 stats adjusted to a percentage of the current stat leader.

Now, some problems arise from this method, which are currently being sorted out. The first is that certain stats are dominated so thoroughly by a single person, like Pujols and ISO, that his 100% puts the next-best person at 85%. The best solution for this is to set the percentages to a bell curve to properly represent the spread of talent in the MLB.

An additional issue with this current method is exactly where to set the zero. One player, Adam Dunn, is such a bad fielder that our initial calculation netted a -27%! This looks hilarious in graph form, but may not be very useful.

The Fun Part

All that being said, with an acknowledgement for opportunity to improve the results for a more representative output, I present to you the DiamondView Composite Player Evaluation. It's a visual representation of the current best 4 stats we have for batters. For presentation purposes, we chose batters at or near the top of particular stats to show exactly how effective this view is for quickly determining a player's strength's and weaknesses. It's really quite amazing when you see it coming together.

In that vein, I wanted OBP Power Guy, low-avg power guy, slappy-hitter/stolen base guy, and the high-defense utility fielder guy. Our current results are a first run, so feel free to help us through the growing pains with suggestions. Take a look:

Bobby Abreu is a classic On-Base guy that can't really hit for power and may be a liability in the field.

What can be said about the Donkey, Adam Dunn, that hasn't already been said? This shows you exactly what he is.

This is probably my favorite one. Carlos Pena, when he hits it, hits it HARD.

There is something to be said for Defense and smart base running (and Michael Bourn's lights out speed).

Ahem. Albert, you're messing up my graphs.

Ben Zobrist's several positions played at a high quality gave us this wonky result.

Let us know what you think.

**It's here that I should note how important Walter Fulbright has been to this and every article that I write here. What little ability I have for making charts is comparatively worthless for the toddler-in-the-ocean I am with Sabermetrics. I try, but simply cannot do it alone. If you have a chance, please acknowledge where you can that it is only with his statistical analysis that most of this is possible. Thank you, Walter.

Royals taking aggressive approach with Tony Pena

Eli Greenspan — Wed, 09 Sep 2009 01:02:02 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

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Converted pitcher Tony Pena Jr. is already having success in the minors as a pitcher, making his tenth appearance as a pitcher on Sunday. He pitched three scoreless innings in his debut in Triple-A, striking out three and walking none.

In his ten appearances, he has a 2.33 ERA and is holding hitters to a .133 batting average.

The Royals are already 23.5 games back and their bullpen owns the worst ERA in the AL (5.09). Bringing Pena up for the last few weeks of the season couldn't hurt the Royals as they look to bolster their pen for 2010.

Should the Royals call up Pena after just ten appearances as a pitcher?

Monday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 15:08:35 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Jody Gerut drops a ball hit by Martin Prado during the eighth inning Sunday. He had two hits and was the Brewers' MVP at the plate, but this play is what sticks out in my mind.

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Some things to read while your voice comes in handy.

The trade winds could be blowing today, as the Brewers have yet to announce a starter for Tuesday, which happens to be the scheduled start day for Mariners starter Jarrod Washburn. Here's today's trade roundup in bullet points:

Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times thinks a deal may be afoot involving Washburn, reliever Brandon Morrow and Alcides Escobar and J.J. Hardy. (Also noted in FanShot.)
U.S.S. Mariner says not to be surprised if Carlos Villanueva is involved in the deal.
Jonah Keri listed a Washburn/Brewers deal as one of nine trade deadline deals that need to happen.

I'm going to break into the bullet points here for a quick aside. Doug Melvin is normally very tight-lipped about moves he might be making, arguing that press coverage and speculation make it more difficult to get a deal done. Why, then, would the Brewers wait so long to name a starter for tomorrow? Assuming no deal is done, Tim Dillard will almost certainly get the start (although Tom H. says it could be Villanueva), so why not name a starter? If the Brewers somehow manage to make a deal today, Dillard could be scratched in favor of Washburn and no one would be harmed. Something doesn't smell right here.

Ok, here's the other rumor-related stuff:

CBS Sports reported over the weekend that the Brewers are done pursuing Roy Halladay, but Doug Melvin denied it.
Brewer Paradise Lost says the return required to acquire Halladay would turn the 2011 Brewers into the 2001 Brewers.
Two-Fisted Slopper wants the Brewers to hold steady, as do 45% of the 976 voters in our poll from Friday.
Brewed Sports doesn't want the Brewers to trade for any players who will be free agents after the season.

Another ugly loss for the Crew yesterday left them 1-12 in their last 13 day games, 4-12 on Sundays and 11-22 in day games overall. The Brewers are now 7-14 in their last 21 games, and haven't won either a series or back-to-back games since beating the Mets on June 29 and 30. View From Bernie's Chalet doesn't see the 2009 Brewers as a contending team anymore. Yet somehow, the Brewers managed to sell out all three games this weekend.

The entire conversation about tomorrow night's starter almost took a strange turn yesterday, as Tim Dillard was warming up in the bullpen following the first inning of yesterday's game, when Braden Looper was struggling with his command early. Dillard sat back down, though, and Looper bounced back with four solid innings before getting rocked in the sixth.

Dillard was added to the roster when Seth McClung was placed on the DL following Friday's game. He has reportedly undergone an MRI on his strained elbow, but no results have been reported. McClung underwent Tommy John surgery in 2003.

Whether Dillard, Villanueva or someone else makes the start Tuesday, they're likely to get an extended audition: After experiencing a setback in his rehab, Dave Bush will not return until mid-August at the earliest. As the Brewers continue to slide downward in the standings, getting 3-4 starts to take a long at long-term rotation options might not be the worst thing.

Manny Parra struggled over the weekend while pitching to Jason Kendall, after pitching well to Mike Rivera for two straight starts. Over in the FanPosts, Saberilliterate wonders if Kendall really does call a good game, and if he's partially responsible for Parra's struggles.

He's probably not a long-term rotation option, but the Brewers signed Jesus Colome to a minor league deal over the weekend and he debuted last night, striking out three in two scoreless innings for Nashville. With the Brewer bullpen overworked and largely ineffective at present, Colome could probably work his way to the big leagues pretty quickly if he performs well in AAA.

Elsewhere in the minors:

The Brewers signed supplemental pick Kyle Heckathorn over the weekend, agreeing to a $776,000 bonus and inviting him to major league spring training next spring (Also noted in FanShot). The Brewers had to overpay for Heckathorn a bit to convince him not to go back to college, but he sounds excited to get his career started, once he's done buying a new pickup truck.
Alex Periard got a late start to his season after being shut down in spring training, but I had forgotten that he's still pretty far ahead in his development: Project Prospect reports that Periard is the 40th youngest player in AA. Jeremy Jeffress was 27th before being demoted and suspended.
R.J. Seidel, who was expected to miss the entire season after slipping on a patch of ice while jogging over the winter, made his season debut over the weekend and Rattler Radio has a link to a nice story about him.

On Power Rankings and whatnot:

The Hardball Times' Dartboard has the Brewers at #19.
The Brewers actually moved up a spot from 18th to 17th in WhatifSports' Power Rankings.
As of Saturday, Beyond the Box Score had the Brewers' playoff chances at 14%.

Around baseball:

Astros: Designated reliever Chad Paronto for assignment.
Cubs: Placed Ted Lilly on the DL with shoulder inflammation. He'll also undergo arthroscopic knee surgery while he's out.
Indians: Acquired pitcher Jess Todd, the Cardinals' 2008 minor league pitcher of the year, as the PTBNL in the Mark DeRosa trade.
Mariners: Placed Erik Bedard on the DL with shoulder inflammation and designated outfielder Wladimir Balentien and reliever Roy Corcoran for assignment.
Mets: Placed Gary Sheffield on the DL with a hamstring strain.
Phillies: Placed reliever Clay Condrey on the DL with a strained muscle in his side.
Red Sox: Designated Mark Kotsay for assignment.
Reds: Placed reliever Jared Burton on the DL with shortness of breath.
Rockies: Designated reliever Ryan Speier for assignment.
Tigers: Designated outfielder Josh Anderson for assignment.

The Cardinals have made a lot of moves this season, but are they building their team in the Brewers' image? Dave Cameron of FanGraphs noticed a severe lack of left handed bats in the Cardinals lineup, and wonders if they'll suffer the same downfall the 2008 Brewers did in the playoffs.

It's a little late to be adding promotions, but tomorrow could be "Surgical Mask" day in Arlington, as Vicente Padilla, who is suffering from swine flu, is still expected to make his scheduled start.

What do you do with a slick fielding shortstop who can't hit .100 in the big leagues? The Royals are going to try to teach Tony Pena Jr. to pitch. I guess they're not out much if the experiment fails.

Here's a cool promotion idea: For $75, the Astros are allowing fans to stand on the field and take pictures while the team takes batting practice. The promotion is available for any home night game. At that price, I think there would be more than a few Brewer fans interested.

On this day in Brewer history: Tommy Harper went 3-for-9 with a double and a home run but it was not enough as the Red Sox defeated the Seattle Pilots 5-3 in 20 innings. Ten years later, Cecil Cooper hit three home runs, including a walkoff shot to lead the Crew to a 6-5 victory over the Yankees.

Oh, and I wasn't able to find any Brewer birthdays, today, but happy belated birthday to Mat Gamel, who turned 24 yesterday.

Drink up.

Royals Shortstop Pena Jr. to be Converted to Pitcher

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 13:53:16 -0000

More photos » by Orlin Wagner - ASSOCIATED PRESS

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The Royals are going to convert struggling shortstop Tony Pena Jr. into a pitcher after hitting an abysmal .098 with one extra-base hit. Once a promising shortstop in the Royals organization, Pena Jr. could not find his consistency at the plate, but the Royals are encouraged by his athleticism in the field and the life he has to his raw fastball.

The Royals ought to take their time with Pena Jr. as they convert him into a full time pitcher. He needs to build up his arm strength and get comfortable throwing from different arm angles before he can start facing hitter regularly. The now 28-year old pitcher will have to work his way up the minor league ladder and hopefully help the Royals pitching staff down the road.

2009 Trade Deadline Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Brendan Scolari — Mon, 20 Jul 2009 08:50:50 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

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Buyers or sellers?

The Diamondbacks were considered contenders heading into 2009 butt they have fallen far short of expectations. The D-Backs are just 37-55 and are 21 games behind the division leading Dodgers. They are sellers, in fact they have already begun the selling process by trading away reliever Tony Pena and second baseman Felipe Lopez. With nothing to compete for it's very possible that the Diamondbacks trade away other veterans before the trading deadline.

Short-term need

The Diamondbacks biggest problem is their lack of offense. Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds are both very good hitters but there aren't many other threats in the lineup. Stephen Drew has been injured and unproductive for much of the year but he isn't going anywhere. The D-Backs don't have anyone to play second base at a high level now that they've traded Felipe Lopez for two minor leaguers. The first baseman of the future may be Brandon Allen, a 23 year-old slugging first baseman who was acquired for Tony Pena.

The outfield is also weak. Obviously Upton is going to be a fixture for awhile but Chris Young, Eric Byrnes, and Gerardo Parra haven't produced. The Diamondbacks have a lot of faith in their young players so they will probably rely on Young and Parra for 2010 as well.

The pitching has been pretty good even with Brandon Webb missing essentially the whole season. The bullpen could use some more depth especaiily after trading Pena, but young arms like Clay Zavada and Daniel Schlereth should help fill the void.

Long-term need

The pitching staff should remain strong for the long term but there are a few questions to be answered. Both Doug Davis and Jon Garland are pending free agents who may be traded before the deadline to try to bring the D-Backs some more young talent. If they stay the organization has to decide whether to bring them back for next year. Brandon Webb is also a huge question mark, his option for 2010 was once a lock to be exercised but it's possible the D-Backs will decline it and save the extra money. Even if he is brought back no one knows if he'll be able to re-gain his Cy Young caliber form.

The offense is stll riddled with holes and until the outfield gets more production outside of Upton it will be hard to score runs. Some better luck for the infielders would help as well, Stephen Drew, Conor Jackson, and Chad Tracy have all fallen way short of preseason expectations. Tracy will likely not return but Drew and Jackson will play key roles for the near future at least.

Big leaguers on the market?

Even though Pena and Lopez have already been traded, there should still be more trades for the Diamondbacks before the deadline. While Doug Davis would attract interest on the trade market, it has been suggested that the D-Backs would rather hang onto him. Jon Garland would be tougher to trade but he might be able to get the D-Backs a decent prospect to go along with salary relief. The team would like to unload Eric Byrnes' contract but that may only be possible if they take another bad contract in return, possibly the recently DFA'd Julio Lugo. Chad Qualls is the team's best reliever and could be dealt but the D-Backs would need to be bowled over because he is under contract for 2010 as well.

Minor league strength

The pitching depth supports a minor league system that is no longer what it used to be. Jarrod Parker could be an impact player as a starting pitcher and Daniel Schlereth could do the same out of the bullpen. Beyond that though there are a lot of low-upside pitchers who can reach the big leagues but are not expected to make a huge difference. With the talent already one the pitching staff, that won't be a problem for now.

The real problem is once again the hitting, where Arizona lacks any real impact prospects. The club tried to address this issue in the recent draft by using the first four selections on hitters. If those guys can develop then the D-Backs will finally have the bats to go along with their plethora of pitching.

Take on short-term money to win?

At this point the Diamondbacks are trying to get rid of expensive veterans, not add more of them.

For more coverage of the Diamondbacks, check out AZ Snakepit.

Mariners Dump Yuniesky Betancourt On Royals

Jack Moore — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 22:11:22 -0000

More photos » by Ted S. Warren - AP

Seattle Mariners shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt catches a fly ball hit by Tampa Bay Rays' Carl Crawford in the first inning, Tuesday, April 21, 2009, in a MLB baseball game at Safeco Field in Seattle. Defense, despite this photo, is not a strong suit for Betancourt. (AP Photo/Ted S. Warren)

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The Mariners still need a shortstop, but they did alleviate themselves of what has been nothing short of a chronic pain in the back of their organization today by trading SS Yuniesky Betancourt to the Royals for a pair of minor league pitchers, Derrick Saito and Dan Cortes. Betancourt, who defected from Cuba in 2003, signed a 4 year/2.8M contract with Seattle in 2005. Betancourt quickly made it to the big club in that same year, combining decent defense at shortstop with below average hitting for .4 WAR in 280 PAs. Betancourt's value rose the next two years to 1.7 WAR the next two seasons. Betancourt's reputation as a great fielder earned him a bigger contract before the 2008 season, worth 13.75 million dollars over four years.

Unfortunately for Mariner fans, Betancourt's reputation as a great fielder was completely unfounded. From 2005-2007, Betancourt's UZR was a whopping +0.7. Only because of the high value of the SS position (7.5 runs per 150 games) was Betancourt worth anything. As a hitter, he never put up a wOBA over .310. Then, in 2008, the other shoe dropped. Betancourt's defensive value plummeted from roughly average to almost inconceivably bad, with Betancourt recording a UZR of -12.6. Combining that with a .299 wOBA gives a player worth only .3 wins above replacement at shortstop.

Upon hearing that Betancourt had dropped some weight and increased his workout program in the offseason, there was some hope in Mariner camps regarding Betancourt's production. Regardless of what Betancourt did in the offseason, it didn't help anything. A .270 wOBA and a staggering -8.3 UZR in only 63 games at SS put Betancourt at a team-killing -0.8 wins above replacement for the season. With the structure of Betancourt's contract, the Royals will be on the hook for 11.5 million dollars through 2011, and then another 2 million if they choose to buy out his option in 2012, and another 6 million if they pick it up. Given Betancourt's history of decline and the fact that he's already (at least) 27 years old, and I find it hard to believe that Betancourt will manage to be worth anything over the next 2.5 years, much less 11.5 million dollars.

I must wonder what Betancourt's new role in Kansas City will be. Certainly, Shortstop has been a hole for the Royals since Mike Aviles went down with Tommy John surgery. Tony Pena Jr. is just as bad as Betancourt, worth -.6 WAR in only 37 games. Betancourt's fellow Seattle castoff Willie Bloomquist has been holding down the fort at SS since the injury to Aviles. Unlike the rest of his career, Bloomquist has been performing pretty well, combining average hitting with slightly below average defense to be worth 0.5 wins in 68 games. Still, Bloomquist doesn't have the fielding chops to play SS, as shown by his -4.3 UZR at SS in 145 career games at SS. Combine that with a RoS ZiPS wOBA projection of .280, and it's clear that Bloomquist isn't the answer.

The two relievers that Kansas City sent over have shown some promise in the minor leagues. Cortes, a right-hander, was KC's 3rd best prospect according to Baseball America. Cortes has had a rough go of it this year in AA, with 57 Ks to 50 BB in 83 IP, but in his career in the minors has a 425/204 K/BB in 485 IP. Derrick Saito, the other piece involved, is only in A ball but has a very solid 53/15 K/BB ratio in 53 IP and is left-handed. Certainly, these prospects are worth a flyer, especially when you're able to also rid yourself of a bad contract.

Seattle and Kansas City both still need shortstops. Ronny Cedeno will likely fill in for the Mariners, although rumors of a trade for either Jack Wilson or Freddy Sanchez have been popping up. For the Royals, it's the unenviable decision between Yuniesky Betancourt, Willie Bloomquist, and Tony Pena Jr. That's not a decision I'd like to make, and if you're Dayton Moore, you can't really be right at this point.

Pirates 6, Astros 3: Finally, Some Runs!

Charlie — Wed, 08 Jul 2009 03:47:42 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Jack Wilson homers in the third inning.

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I expected the worst from this one after the Pirates didn't put a run on the board in either of the first two innings, but then Jack Wilson hit a two-run homer in the third. And even after the Bucs blew the game open with four runs in the seventh, I thought Joel Hanrahan or John Grabow might blow it after they each put on a bunch of baserunners. Ultimately, though, none of that happened. And there was also some less anxiety-inducing stuff here, two, like Garrett Jones' two stolen bases (which you can chalk up to getting good jumps), a spectacular play by Wilson deep in the hole, and a gap double by Andrew McCutchen.

A few notes:

Vazquez has too much value for Braves to move - FOX Sports on MSN
Ken Rosenthal reports that the Pirates are interested in Rockies 2B Eric Young, Jr. as a possible replacement for Freddy Sanchez, should Sanchez be traded. The Rockies aren't really in contention for the NL West race, but they are in the Wild Card picture, so they could conceivably be buying at the deadline. Young shouldn't be any more than a throw-in in any trade, though. He's already 24, and his nifty minor league OBPs and steal totals are offset by a lack of projectible power. Also, his current home park in Colorado Springs is great for hitters. He'd be a pretty fringy starting second baseman. Of course, all this would appear to be moot if the Pirates don't deal Sanchez.

Baseball Prospectus | Future Shock: Monday Ten Pack
Kevin Goldstein (subscription required) calls Rudy Owens "a very real prospect" and says he's ready for a promotion.

White Sox acquire reliever Tony Pena from Arizona | Hardball
The Diamondbacks have traded Tony Pena to the White Sox for minor league first baseman Brandon Allen. The Diamondbacks, who are 19 games out of first, are admitting here that their season is done. I actually thought they might be the one team that had the talent to compete with the Dodgers in the West, but the loss of Brandon Webb and the messes made by hitters like Eric Byrnes, Chris Young and Chad Tracy have done them in, even as Justin Upton, Mark Reynolds, Dan Haren, Doug Davis and Max Scherzer have all performed very well. Anyway, Allen is a hulk of a man and a reasonably well-rounded power hitter in the midst of a somewhat tough year; he'll probably recover his stroke in the extremely friendly hitting environment at Reno, where the D'Backs have their AAA affiliate. I love Pena's stuff, and he'll fit nicely into what was already a pretty good White Sox bullpen as they try to chase down the Tigers. Nice trade for both teams.

The 600/1200 Rule and Predicting Future All-Stars

marbotty — Sun, 21 Jun 2009 22:49:22 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Not me.

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I am not a scout. I am not a sabermagician. I have no professional, college, or even high-school baseball experience, either as a player or as part of a front-office or coaching staff.

In fact, my direct association with the game ceased to exist around the 6th grade, when, while picking grass while "manning" right field, I had an epiphany: carrying a lifetime .057 batting average wouldn't be opening any doors for me in the world of baseball.

In other words, I'm no expert. You can take everything I am about to write with a grain of salt, dismiss what I say, and disagree with me entirely.

But be prepared to eat that grain of salt on a serving of crow, as I am 100% correct.

Well, maybe.

Introduction to the 600/1200 Rule

Like clockwork, there is a time each season where I abandon hope of the Royals winning the pennant and instead start to wonder what will happen next year and beyond (see DANSSTOAD). That moment arrived about a week or two ago, and while I still check the boxscores each day, it's less with an interest in seeing the score, and more an eye at individual performances, to see if there's any reason to be optimistic about the future of our younger players.

Specifically, my main concern was whether our core of younger players (Butler, Gordon, Callaspo, and Aviles) would ever be able to hit well enough to anchor a playoff-bound offense, Or, more simply, whether these guys would ever turn into all-stars.

This naturally lead to a couple of questions:

1. How does one define an all-star?

2. Is it even possible to predict if Player X will become an all-star?

I took a bit of an arbitrary approach to #1 -- I defined an "all-star" as any player capable of amassing an .800 OPS or higher. (Similarly, I have defined a player with a .900 OPS or greater as a super-star.)

I'm sure I'll catch a little flack from some on the site, as not all .800 OPS'ers are built the same -- for example, OBP is likely much more important than SLG. That said, an .800 OPS is an .800 OPS, and for a team that's only featured four guys over the last three years to have topped that mark (Callaspo, Sanders, Aviles, and DeJesus), we should be ecstatic if we can add two or three more names to the list, no matter how that OPS was arrived at.

To answer #2, I decided to look at commonalities between all of the players that managed to cross both the .800 OPS and .900 OPS thresholds over the last nine years. What I found was a melange of different playing types, ages, positions, and backgrounds. Some of the guys on the list were perennial all-stars (Pujols, A-Rod, etc.), some guys who were rookie sensations (Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez, Evan Longoria), and some were guys that seemed to come out of nowhere (Russell Branyan, Nelson Cruz, Jack Cust, Ryan Ludwick, Raul Ibanez.)

It was this last group, the Late Bloomers, that intrigued me the most -- with little exception, the majority of these players had been in the league for a few years, perhaps sporting a decent minor league pedigree, but never showing enough at the major league level to warrant extended playing time.

Despite the seeming disparity in player profiles, after a bit of digging, I was a bit surprised how easy it was to spot future all-stars. They all had the same thing in common -- and I was even more surprised that I had never come across this idea previously, even though it intuitively made sense. Maybe this has been explored and discussed countless places before, maybe it''s already so obvious to the majority of baseball fans that it doesn't even warrant discussion, even among casual observers of the game. But this discovery was new to me, so there's likely one or two of you that will find this at least a little interesting.

So what was the common thread?

Basically, there were two central precepts at play here. Which leads to Rule #1:

Rule 1: The first 600 at bats in a player's career don't
matter...

After looking at the career statistics of all 100+ players who had managed to post an OPS of .800 or greater over the 2000 - 2009 seasons, one thing proved to be true. No matter how poorly they had done in their initial 600 at bats (even if spread across several seasons), it had little to no bearing on how they would perform later on. This was almost universally true for all of the future all-stars, with only a handful of exceptions (roughly 6 - 7 %) which I'll get into later.

Here are but a few examples of how the first 600 at bats are irrelevant:

Jermaine Dye
1996 ATL 292 at bats OPS .763
1997 KC 263 at bats OPS .653
Career OPS .830

Mike Sweeney
1996 KC 165 at bats OPS .770
1997 KC 240 at bats OPS .668
1998 KC 282 at bats OPS .728
Career OPS .854

Hideki Matsui
2003 NY 623 at bats OPS .788
Career OPS .847

Raul Ibanez
1997 SEA 26 at bats OPS .500
1998 SEA 98 at bats OPS .699
1999 SEA 209 at bats OPS .734
2000 SEA 140 at bats OPS .630
Career OPS .829

Adam Lind
2007 TOR 290 at bats OPS .678
2008 TOR 326 at bats OPS .755
2009 TOR 269 at bats OPS .915

The list literally goes on and on, but I think you get the idea. Whether you chalk up this phenomenon to small sample sizes or as a "necessary adjustment period" to major league pitching -- the fact is, you shouldn't dismiss a player based on his first 600 at bats, particularly if the player has shown a tendency to hit well in the minors. What's sort of interesting is that age really doesn't play a factor -- it's mainly a function of opportunity.

Another cool example is Casey Blake, who is OPS'ing over .881 right now. Here's his first 6 years in the majors:

1999 .677 OPS
2000 .646 OPS
2001 .746 OPS (NY) .521 OPS (BAL)
2002 .521 OPS
2003 .723 OPS

Blake was 26 years old when he logged his first ML at bat, and it wasn't until age 30 when he got extended playing time in 2003 (557 at bats). It would have been very easy to write him off as a scrub based on those pitiful numbers. One thing to realize is that he had only logged just a shy over 600 at bats from 1999 - 2003 (including his 557 at bats in 2003). So, according to the 600 rule (which I am stretching a bit here, if only slightly), you shouldn't give up on him. And true to the rule, he's OPS'd over .800 in 3 of the 6 years since.

Of course, there are a few instances where common sense dictates that it is indeed okay to give up on the player, like with Tony Pena, Jr., where there's nothing in either his major league or minor league profile that would suggest he would ever hit better than he does currently.

Considering the mildly disappointing starts to both Gordon and Butler's careers, (and "disappointment" is of course subjective and debatable), this was encouraging news, as their sub .800 OPS's seemed to belie what was their true talent. But then I discovered rule #2:

Rule #2: ...But the first 1200 at bats do matter.

Almost without fail, everyone who has posted a .800+ OPS season over the last ten years has posted an OPS of .800 within at least one 500-600 at bat stretch during his initial 1200 at bats.

Among all of the players who had managed an .800 OPS in a single season from 2000 - 2009, about 93% had posted at least an .800 OPS in one of their first two seasons (or equivalent). For those players who had managed to make it to superstar level (.900 OPS or higher), the baseline was an OPS of about .850 OPS during one or both of their first two seasons.

What's interesting here is that this was true across the board, regardless of position. For example, you may have often heard, like I had, that catchers take a long time to develop.

It is for this reason that for years I have waited patiently for John Buck to blossom into an all-star caliber hitter. He had often showed flashes, he had the build, but he just hadn't put it all together. Had I applied the 1200 rule after his first 1200 or so at bats, I would have realized earlier that my waiting was in vain.

The simple truth is, if a player is ever going to hit .800 OPS or greater over a sustained period of time, the proof of their ability to do so should be evident within their first two years. A brief look at all of the premiere hitting catchers (Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Piazza, Jorge Posada, Javy Lopez, Joe Mauer) over the last ten years has proven this to be true. It didn't take them years to adjust -- they basically came up and started hitting -- if not in year one, in year two.

In other words -- if you're good enough to start hitting, you're going to do it right away, otherwise it's not going to happen.

Of course, sometimes it does happen. Sometimes a guy who fails to post an .800 in their first 1200 at bats goes on to have an excellent career.

Ironically enough, this was the case with our own Carlos Beltran (though he logged a .791 in his first full year), and there are a handful of other guys to which this applies (Gary Sheffield, Luis Gonzalez, and Sammy Sosa are among some of the more notable guys) These counter-examples are rare, and even in most of the cases, if they didn't clear .800 in their first 1200, they did it in their first 1800. And while it's probably a little unfair to note, some of these guys were heavily rumored, if not confirmed, to have used steroids, so there's at least the possibility that they've skewed the results.

The corollary is the other type of guy who posts an .800 season without having one in his first 1200 at bats. These are the flukes -- the Edgar Renteria's, the Juan Encarnacion's, or the Shea Hillebrand's. At most, they will likely only provide one or two more .800 OPS seasons, but it is usually a crapshoot when and where that will occur.

While some of these players may add value to their team defensively, the odds are very heavily against them repeating their .800+ seasons, so astute general managers will know not to rely on them to be offensive sparkplugs for their respective teams.

Not so astute general managers end up spending millions of dollars on guys like Gary Matthews, Jr., and to a lesser extent, Jose Guillen. While the Rule of 1200 may tell you who will become a star, it's just as likely, if not more likely, to tell you who won't become a star (or maintain their current stardom.)

What does this mean for the Royals?

What's sort of unique about the four players I mentioned at the top of this agonizingly long post was that they all could go either way with this, depending on how generous you feel.

Right now, only Aviles is in the running for future all-star, under these two rules. Although of the four, he's the one I feel least likely to actually be able to capitalize. Most of Aviles' offensive value was tied up in a very unsustainable high batting average. It would appear his .800+ OPS of 2008 was a fluke, but considering the current state of the Royals, it wouldn't hurt to give him a season to prove otherwise.

Callaspo's probably in the best shape under this scenario, provided he's able to keep on his current pace. His minor league numbers provide a lot of reason for optimism here, too.

As for Gordon and Butler, it's difficult to get too excited. A year ago, I saw a future George Brett and David Ortiz. Now, and especially in light of the trend I've seen among the players I surveyed, it seems more likely we're looking at something like Shea Hillebrand and John Olerud. Not terrible, but certainly a let down considering the hype surrounding these players.

Of course, Butler still has about 400 at bats remaining of his 1200, so if he picks things up, we can begin to dream a little again. And even if he doesn't manage, he's still young, but if this study proved anything, it doesn't matter what age people are when they get their chance -- they'll either hit right away or they won't. And if they don't, there's little reason to expect they'll start doing it later.

Poll

What else does this mean?

It's not too late to bring back Justin Huber

141 votes

141 votes | Poll has closed

The Royals are an 88-win Team in the National League

royalsreview — Sun, 14 Jun 2009 21:02:46 -0000

Brian Bannister went old school today, working his anti-BABIP mojo to the tune of just four hits allowed in eight innings, paired with a relatively modest strikeout total of four. Of course, the Reds weren't going to be walking anyway, so it hardly mattered, but Banny only issued one free pass (yay dead baseball cliches!). Though I had my doubts at the beginning of this season, Bannister now seems likely to pass D.A.R.Y.L. May's career starts total of 97 (though total games pitched remains in question). Bannister is at 78 career starts now, and even if he immediately becomes the worst starter alive, he'll probably get at a minimum 20 more chances now, enough to pass May.
Heading into today's game Mark Teahen was hitting .333/.364/.619 in his last seven games, a mini-hot streak that no one really noticed. After three more hits today, he may finally be out of St. Willie's shadow. Or not.
Jacobs drew two walks today.
Miguel Olivo had his weekly awesome game. Now prepare yourselves for another 2-18 stretch with 15 strikeouts.
I really love the Luis Hernandez-Tony Pena Jr.-St. Willie platoon of death the Royals have working at shortstop. You have to appreciate this roster. Hillman has the ability to start the game with an all-glove, no-hit SS, pinch-hit or defensive sub with an even worse option in the seventh, then do the same again in the ninth, if needed. It's like a classic 1980s "SuperGroup" only its primary function appears to be sexually exciting the broadcasting class.
How horrible did the Reds look this weekend? Completely horrific hitting, terrible plate approach, awful defense, and milquetoast pitching. This is a .500 team in the NL! The Royals displayed a near total mastery of them, and the Royals aren't good. The Royals looked potent, patient, and overpowering against the Reds. I know it's just three games, but after weekends like this, I don't doubt Beyond the Boxscore's contention that a .500 team in the AL would win 92 games in the National League.

Poll

How many games would the 2009 Royals win in the National League?

77-80

77 votes

81-84

86 votes

85-88

250 votes

89 or more

232 votes

645 votes | Poll has closed