SB Nation - Jorge De La Rosa

Interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times-Part 4

raygu — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 14:00:19 -0000

Here is the last part of the 4 part interview with Derek Carty from The Hardball Times. Derek provides some insight into his top 5 rankings and some early sleepers for 2010:

Fake Teams: Are there any statistics that you use to evaluate hitters or pitchers that aren't mainstream yet?

Derek Carty: Absolutely. As I've talked about a little bit already, there are some that aren't even super well-known in the sabermetric community because, well, I invented them myself and they aren't really readily available yet. I absolutely love CAPS, David Gassko's LIPS ERA is great, and True Home Runs for hitters is a favorite of mine as well. Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix's xBABIP is great too. And of course, things like BABIP and HR/FB and LOB% aren't really mainstream, but they are pretty well-known in the sabermetric community and are certainly important to look at.

More after the jump:

Fake Teams: Do you prefer auction leagues or straight draft leagues? Mixed or NL/AL-only leagues?

Derek Carty: Auction, without a doubt. It gives everyone a chance at every player and, I feel, allows you to be more creative with how you construct your team and with how you plan your strategy. I used to be a 100% in favor of mixed leagues over AL/NL-only (in theory), although LABR has swayed my opinion a bit (it was the first AL/NL-only league I ever played in). Still, I would have to lean towards something like a 14 or 15-team mixed league, given my druthers. I just feel that one or two big injuries to an AL or NL-only team can derail any hope of a championship, in some instances, and we really are in the infantile stages of trying to predict injuries, so it's not as if some of us can even gain much of a competitive advantage in the area. I was actually quite lucky in LABR this year when it came to the health of my players, which has surely colored my opinion of this league setup a bit. Aside from losing Ramon Hernandez for most of the year and Raul Ibanez, Rich Harden, and Carlos Ruiz for a few weeks, my team stayed pretty healthy. In other leagues, I wasn't as lucky. In the FSIC, for instance, Jose Reyes killed us (although we did manage to finish in second despite a Reyes/Garrett Atkins combo for our first two picks). I think a 15-team mixed league is a pretty good depth and minimizes the amount of luck involved.

Fake Teams: An early look at 2010-who is your top 5 players in NL-only leagues? AL-only leagues? Mixed?

Derek Carty: This'll have to be very early since I haven't completed my projections yet or really tried to make any 2010 predictions, but here's how I'm currently feeling (completely subjectively and without seeing some of the more in-depth numbers I like to look at).
NL: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) Ryan Braun, 5) Matt Kemp
AL: 1) A-Rod, 2) Mark Teixeira, 3) Miguel Cabrera, 4)Evan Longoria, 5) Joe Mauer
Mixed: 1) Albert Pujols, 2) Hanley Ramirez, 3) Chase Utley, 4) A-Rod, 5) Ryan Braun

Fake Teams: If you have done this analysis, who are a few sleepers for 2010?

Derek Carty: I haven't really done this analysis yet, so I'll probably have some very different names when asked in a month or two. For now, let's go with Ian Stewart, Julio Borbon, Eric Young Jr., Dallas McPherson (consider him the next Russell Branyan if he finds playing time), Koji Uehara (potential Baltimore closer, though he could succeed as a SP as well), Brett Andersen, and Jorge de la Rosa. And, of course, whether someone is truly a sleeper or a value pick is entirely dependent on context. He'll only derive value if you take him in a round later than where you believe he truly belongs.

Fake Teams thanks Derek for taking the time to answer these questions for our readers.

Swing and a miss! –or- Jip Jip Jorge!

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 18:10:10 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Somebody swung and missed at this pitch.

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Alas, poor Jorge: I knew him well...at least that's how we all felt when he left against the Dodgers with a left groin pull. Losing Jorge De La Rosa may have been a major part of the Rockies' 4-game loss in the NLDS against the 2009 NL Champion Phillies. However, at this point, what's done is done, and I feel we can look back on his season and be pleased for the most part.

Starting 2 weeks ago, Counting Rocks is looking at the Rockies' rotation and drooling over the good things they've done and finding ways to brush the bad things under the rug.

This was a promising season for De La Rosa. After bouncing through 2 professional leagues (MLB, Mexican League) and 5 MLB franchises (Arizona, Boston, Milwaukee, Kansas City, Colorado), it would seem that at least for the time being, Jorge has found somewhere to call home. I'm sure I'm not alone when I say how pleased I am that he's here.

DLR has brought electricity to the mound that we haven't really seen since Pedro Astacio and Bruce Ruffin. DLR came to the mound with a 4 pitch arsenal: a 92-95mph fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. This season, his fastball was really nothing terribly special (according to Fangraphs, as will the rest be), his curveball was roughly an average pitch, but his slider and changeup were remarkably positive pitches, and while nowhere near the top of the leaderboards, you can find his pitch values somewhere around the middle of the first page, anyhow.

No, what stands out about Jorge's pitches isn't how they rank in terms of run values in the majors, but rather what other batters were able to do with the pitches.

Join us after the jump as we look at Jorge's skillsets and how he's used them in the 2009 season.

Firstly, he's a strikeout machine. Now, he doesn't have the sheer number of punchouts that Jimenez and Astacio have/had, but that's mostly because they are/were more durable pitchers, more innings, etc. That said, DLR's 2009 season in terms of sheer strikeout totals ranked 3^rd in Rockies' history, tied with Pedro Astacio's 2000, at 193. Ranked ahead of him are: Ubaldo Jimenez' 2009, with 198, and Pedro Astacio's 1999, where he fanned 210 batters. Following is the Rockies' all-time leaderboard in terms of single-season strikeouts.

Rank	Player	SO	Year
1	Pedro Astacio	210	1999
2	Ubaldo Jimenez	198	2009
T3	Pedro Astacio	193	2000
T3	Jorge de la Rosa	193	2009
5	Ubaldo Jimenez	172	2008
6	Pedro Astacio	170	1998
7	Jeff Francis	165	2007
8	Darryl Kile	158	1998
9	Jason Jennings	142	2006
10	Denny Neagle	139	2001

Secondly, past the total strikeouts, De La Rosa was able to get more people to swing and miss at his pitches than anyone on the staff, making batters look silly with 10.6% of his pitches. He ranked 14^th in the majors among eligible starters in this Swinging Strike% category. That's nasty right there. DLR also was 10^th in the majors in terms of % of pitches that resulted in balls in play, at 16.9%. Now with a guy like DLR, you almost don't want him to put it in play. He's not TERRIBLY home run prone, but he did allow an OPS of .745 this season (which means batters batted just a shade below average against DLR as a collective). But remember that only 1 pitch per plate appearance can be put into play, and even then, sometimes one ISN'T put into play.

I'd be remiss if I just presented the number of batters who swung and missed without presenting any of the downside. While we can cheer about DLR making guys whiff and not putting a lot of balls into play, DLR also ranked 17^th in the majors in Ball%, in the bad way. Yes, 38.9% of DLR's pitches landed outside of the zone, while 43.9% fell for strikes/balls. This is new, right, the revelation that he walks too many guys? Anyhow.

But all of these numbers are kind of meaningless without putting them into context. As you all know, I'm a big fan of component rate stats: K/9, K/BB, BB/9, and HR/9. DLR posted a 9.39 K/9 this season, which is a career best for him, beating last year's mark of 8.86. Check out DLR's components below:

Season	Team	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	FIP
2004	Brewers	1.99	5.56	0.36	0.4	0.312	1.9	5.17
2005	Brewers	8.93	8.08	1.11	0.21	0.287	2.03	4.04
2006	Brewers/Royals	7.63	6.15	1.24	1.59	0.267	1.71	5.88
2007	Royals	5.68	3.67	1.55	1.38	0.304	1.64	5.27
2008	Rockies	8.86	4.29	2.06	0.9	0.259	1.46	4.06
2009	Rockies	9.39	4.04	2.33	0.97	0.248	1.38	3.91

(Bolded numbers indicate career bests)

DLR took strides this season, and this really has been the best year of his career. He's 29 on opening day 2010, so while I don't anticipate him getting better, per se, I do see him being able to refine his BB9 while maintaining a high K/9. (It should be noted his 2009 numbers are very slightly skewed by his 1 relief appearance, his numbers as just a starter are slightly better overall, but not enough to post JUST his results as a starting pitcher.)

I'd also like to point out that that Jorge posted a 4.10 tRA* (the regressed and adjusted and lathered/rinsed/repeated version of tRA that takes everything into account) this season, good for 21st overall in the majors, and 2nd on the Rockies behind our boy Ubaldo.

So this is all nice and fun, but seeing how we're looking at DLR's numbers in terms of the Rockies' franchise, chew on this for a minute:

Jorge De La Rosa holds the top 2 marks in franchise history for strikeouts per 9. Yes, higher than Pedro Astacio. Higher than Bruce Ruffin. Higher than Darryl Kile. He tops them all.

Rank	Player	K/9	Year
1	Jorge de la Rosa	9.389	2009
2	Jorge de la Rosa	8.861	2008
3	Pedro Astacio	8.847	2000
4	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.174	2009
5	Pedro Astacio	8.147	1999
6	Bruce Ruffin	8.119	1993
7	Pedro Astacio	7.979	2001
8	Ubaldo Jimenez	7.792	2008
9	Shawn Chacon	7.537	2001
10	Byung-Hyun Kim	7.49	2006

Nothing's more fun for me than watching a pitcher amass strikeouts in a single game. This season, among his 32 starts (remember he missed that one at the ASB and pitched terribly in relief in one game just to give him a little work before a big layover), De La Rosa threw 3 games with 10 or more punchouts, 5 with 9 or more, 8 with 8 or more, and 11 with 7 or more strikeouts. It's hardly Lincecum-esque, but that's pretty awesome right there. Only Ubaldo really ranks about De La Rosa in this area of being a sheer lockdown pitcher, and that's simply because where Ubaldo lacks in the K9 department, he has a good 5-10% extra GB% as an insurance policy against the few scattered baserunners he allows.

So I've put my opinion on my sleeve pretty firmly here, I think DLR is a stud. His stuff is destructive. He's shown a lot of growth and maturity, especially in some games down the stretch where he allowed himself to be stretched an extra inning or two extra in some outings where they needed their starter to give some innings - specifically I'm thinking about his August 22 start against SF, where he got hit for 6 runs early, but still stretched out over 6 innings while the Rockies rallied and ultimately won the game 12-8.

Of DLR's 32 starts, he only had 7 starts where he allowed more than 4 runs (9 if you include the 4 run games), 2 games with 6 runs allowed, 4 with 7 runs allowed. Those 4 7-run starts have me disturbed, as well as the 2 6-run starts, because it's not as if we can just write them off to April shakiness or whatever - 2 came in May, 2 in August, 1 in June, 1 in September. The small "good" we can take out of those terrible 6 starts are 2 small-ish things: First, he was able to make it out of the 4^th in 2 of the starts, pitching 5 and 6 innings in 2 of these stinkers, so at least he mopped up a bit of his own mess; second, his walk totals aren't obscene in them. Out of the 6 stinker starts, only 2 of them featured more walks than strikeouts, and only 1 of them featured more than 3 walks - well, 2 if you count HBP, but I'm looking that as kind of a different thing, esp in how it factors into pitch count. What I'm trying to point out here is that DLR's biggest weakness may seem to be wildness, but BBs weren't what killed him in his worst starts. In 3 of his 6 stinkers, however, he allowed 2 or more long balls.

It's pretty obvious we're putting lipstick on a pig in these cases, because it's not as if the "not as bad as it could've been" factor suddenly makes the runs not count or something, it's more that it simply looks like he just had "those days" rather than "man this guy just sucks", as the losses didn't really show his weaknesses - at least in the form of his recurring lack of control. If we wanna talk about emotional issues, whew, that's not really my field, but I'll be happy to discuss it. (My stance is the feared Jekyll and Hyde nature of DLR is starting to fade, almost like an evanescent mist, as he finds himself in a more stable role with the team, especially a team as good as the Rockies. I imagine knowing that even if he gives up 3-4 runs, the game isn't over, so he can pitch a bit looser and with a bit more confidence.)

So to conclude this praise of De La Rosa's 2009 season, I'll just leave you with with one line from DLR's split stats:

Opponent Name	G	W	L	PA	AB	SO/9	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	ERA	IP	WHIP
Arizona Diamondbacks	4	3	1	109	93	7.4	.172	.287	.258	.545	50	1.35	26.2	1.163

Jason Hammel: The Man, the Myth, the Back-End Starter

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 19:00:25 -0000

***UPDATE: I went ahead and averaged everyone's rankings, as I'm somewhat foolish in the original analysis. This has been reflected in the article, and in the linked spreadsheet as well.***

Jason Hammel is a stud. At least, in my opinion he is. I found that he really solidified his spot in the rotation after a shaky April. He had a bit of an ugly July as well, but all things averaging out, Hammel finished the season at 10-8 with a 4.33 ERA, 176 2/3 IP, and a nice friendly smile to go with all of that.

Now, what's probably sticking in most Rockies' fans mind is his first and only postseason start against Philly, where he didn't have his ace stuff. He only lasted 3.2 innings, allowing 4 runs on 4 hits, 5K's, 3BB, and sucked up the loss. Definitely not solid stuff.

But we all know that 1 start does not make a pitcher, especially a first postseason start, where nerves and the bitter cold may have played a part. In the minds of many fans, however, he still wasn't the solidifying force that many people would have liked to see over the course of the season, #5 starter or not. I've read several claims that he should be in the bullpen in 2010, making way for starters returning from injury, for young prospects looking eager to make the rotation, and perhaps even being bumped when Colorado inevitably trades for Roy Halladay.

See, I disagree with the notion that he hasn't earned himself a spot in the 2010 rotation. I personally feel he's earned himself the #4 spot, behind Ubaldo, Cook, and DLR.

I feel strongly enough about this to make the following claim: Jason Hammel was the best (or at least top 15%) among all #5 starters in the majors this season, and that he'd even find himself in the middle of the pack (top 50%) among all #4 starters this season.

Now, to explore this hypothesis, I pulled all the #4/#5 starters from Baseball Reference to see how well he stacks up. I included all the #6 starters as well and called them #5s. I had to make a few adjustments as BBR ranks the 1-5 based on innings pitched, which makes sense for the most part: your ace will likely have the most innings pitched, and the #5/#6 will probably have been called up/sent down and/or demoted to/promoted from the pen, thereby giving them an overall lesser workload than the other rotation members. That said, I had to make sure that Cliff Lee was an Ace, and other pitching staffs with a lot of injuries didn't have their Ace listed as the #4.

Now there are a couple of interesting details to note here. For starters, the #5 slot isn't nearly as non-competitive as you'd think. Populating the back-end include not only a bunch of no-names and veterans just there to eat innings, but also young bucks who burned their way past AAA and will probably be a #3 or higher in the 2010 season. That said, the #5 competition is almost stiffer than the #4 competition, as the #4 doesn't have quite the revolving door that the #5 does, and oftentimes will house the Livan Hernandez' of a rotation, who really kind of suck, but not badly enough to be demoted.

Join us after the jump as we see where Hammel stacks up against the competition.

Now, when I evaluate a pitcher, I look at the following things: ERA, FIP, xFIP, tRA. I'll be excluding xFIP and tRA from this not because I don't think they should come into play, but because I have like 60 pitchers to stack up and their xFIP/tRA aren't easily calculable and/or aren't nicely listed on BBR. Ah, the drawbacks of making your own spreadsheets.

After the runs/9 metrics, I then move to peripherals: WHIP, K9, BB9, HR9, K/BB. I feel those can tell more of a story of how the pitcher actually pitched without taking a lot of the more variable aspects of the game into play (parks and such - although obviously HR9 is very different based on where you pitched. This is where the "YEAH BUT COORS" comes into play).

Finally, Innings Pitched. Typically, it's not that big of a deal, because we can just look at rate stats to level the playing field, but considering the revolving-door nature of the #5 slot, it shows that the pitcher was consistently good enough to not lose his rotation spot to anyone else.

So let's get to cracking.

Jason Hammel posted a 4.33 ERA in 2009 over 176 2/3 innings, good for an ERA+ of 104, allowing a WHIP of 1.387. His FIP sat at a solid 3.66. Per 9 innings, Hammel struck out 6.8, walked a mere 2.1, and gave up 0.9 HR. He struck out 3.17 batters per walk allowed.

Based on those numbers, Hammel ranked as follows:

	#5
ERA	13
ERA+	11
WHIP	17
FIP	3
K9	13
BB9	5
HR9	9
K/BB	4
IP	2
Average	8.89

Averaging all those rankings gives Hammel an average rank of 8.89, as seen above. This puts Hammel as 3rd among #5 starters, with 1st being Tommy Hanson (4.33) and Jeff Niemann (8.56). That's some pretty fine company to have right there. So let's see how he stacks up among the steady #4 starters:

	Hammel	DLR
ERA	7	8
ERA+	7	8
WHIP	9	8
FIP	1	4
K9	13	2
BB9	2	21
HR9	5	10
K/BB	2	4
IP	2	1
Average	5.333333333	7.333333333

Averaging THOSE rankings puts Hammel at an average 5.333 ranking among #4 starters. Ahead of him, nobody. That's right, he's first. Directly behind him are Hiroki Kuroda, Randy Wells, and Jorge De La Rosa.

Clearly we're not looking at all the pieces to the puzzle here. There's more to a pitcher's makeup than simply how he ranks among his peers. But considering the job we asked Jason to do this season, it would appear he held it down admirably.

If you asked me to tell you which number impressed me the most about Jason Hammel this season, I'd answer simply that it's his walk rate. With 2 fireballers/K machines in Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa, we also saw some pretty unfriendly BB9's, despite their relative improvements. Jason almost halved his BB9 from his past 2 seasons in Tampa, and took to attacking the strike zone far more than we'd seen of him in his career. Granted, he had times when he was very hittable, but at the very least, a BB9 that low will keep you in games longer and help you eat more innings at the back end of a rotation.

Additionally, Hammel ranked 31^st in tRA*, the adjusted and regressed form of tRA. While that doesn't really show how the other #4/#5 pitchers did this season, putting Hammel that high up on the list is pretty impressive to say the least.

So let's go back to my hypothesis.

Did Jason Hammel rate top 15% among #5 starters?

No, no he did not. Based on the criteria, Hammel just barely missed being in the top 20%. So swing and a miss there, although he might have caught a piece of it. Yes, yes he did. Ranking 3rd behind Jeff Niemann and Tommy Hanson is no small feat, considering Hanson is the Braves' top pitching prospect and Niemann is the guy who beat him out for the job in Tampa. Very admirable.

Did Jason Hammel rate top 50% among #4 starters?

Yes, yes he did. Based on the criteria, Hammel blew past the top 50% and topped all eligible #4 starters in the categories used to evaluate.

That said, based on the hypothesis given, the conclusion I draw is that while Hammel ranks very favorably among #5 starters, he can easily compete with #4 starters, and I feel that puts him in a place that should all but guarantee him a rotation spot in 2010.

If you'd like to see the raw data I used to make this evaluation, I've created a Google Docs spreadsheet here for you to look at and mess with.

Rockies Set Rotation, Roster for NLDS and Lineup for Game 1

Jabberwocky — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 20:22:35 -0000

More photos » by Matt Rourke - AP

Ubaldo Jimenez will lead the Rockies' playoff rotation.

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According to Sports Illustrated, Jorge De La Rosa will not be available for the NLDS. As such, here's the Rockies' NLDS rotation:

Ubaldo Jimenez,
Aaron Cook
Jason Hammel

It appears that Jason Marquis will be used out of the bullpen during the first three games, meaning that the Rockies seem to be planning to have Jimenez go in game 4 on short rest and Cook in game 5 on regular rest. The possibility still remains that Marquis could start game 4, though no decision has been made on that. Likely if the Rockies are up 2-1 Marquis would start and if they are down 2-1 Jimenez would go.

Jim Tracy on Marquis:

"I think the first two-thirds of the season were exceptional," Tracy said. "Right now he's not throwing the ball quite in the same manner. And to ignore a guy that has thrown the ball as well as Jason Hammel has thrown it since the All-Star break, I really feel is doing ourselves a disservice."

According to the Denver Post, here's the playoff bullpen:

Jason Marquis
Jose Contreras
Matt Belisle
Joe Beimel
Franklin Morales
Matt Daley
Rafael Betancourt
Huston Street

Belisle basically replaced De La Rosa on the roster. The Rockies have two lefties in the pen to help with the Phillies' Ryan Howard in particular.

From the same link, here's the Game 1 Lineup and bench:

Game 1 Lineup:
CF Dexter Fowler
LF Carlos Gonzalez
1B Todd Helton
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B Garrett Atkins
C Yorvit Torrealba
RF Brad Hawpe
2B Clint Barmes
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez

This is pretty much what I figured the lineup would be for Game 1, with Atkins and Torrealba starting. I'm pleasantly surprised to see that CarGo will make the start in lieu of Ryan Spilborghs, though I believe that the Rockies are better suited with Gonzalez in the leadoff position rather than in the two hole.

Bench:

1B/DH Jason Giambi
C Chris Iannetta
LF Seth Smith
OF Ryan Spilborghs
3B Ian Stewart
2B/OF Eric Young Jr.

EY2 has taken Quintanilla's bench spot while Giambi slides in as the extra position player.

Hat tip to Rock Oax for his FanShot.

UPDATE: Tracy Ringolsby adds his thoughts on the roster and mentions that Jose Contreras is also a viable option for the starter of Game 4.

Dodgers 5, Rockies 0: Divisional Dreams Die at Dodger Stadium

Poseidon's Fist — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 05:27:26 -0000

More photos » by Ross D. Franklin - AP

The Rockies need Franklin Morales in the postseason, but he was the only pitcher from either team to allow a run tonight, and he got just one out.

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It was a nice dream while it lasted, but the Rockies' fairy-tale hopes for the end of the season imploded in Hollywood tonight. Had Colorado won tonight and tomorrow, they would have secured the NL West title and home field advantage throughout the National League playoffs. Instead with the loss, the Rockies will be the NL Wild Card and will open their NLDS Wednesday in Philadelphia. First, they'll play a meaningless game tomorrow for the first time in 162 regular season games.

Morales Implodes

With Matt Daley unavailable from a 28-pitch outing last night, Jim Tracy turned to Franklin Morales in a scoreless game in the bottom of the seventh. Casey Blake singled to left-center field, where Carlos Gonzalez bobbled the ball for an error, allowing Blake to advance to second base. That error completely changed the complexion of the inning.

After a sac bunt moved Blake to third, Ronnie Belliard pinch-hit for Orlando Hudson (who saw that coming in May) and poked an infield single in the hole between first and second. Clearly unnerved, Morales went on to walk two - one intentionally - and give up run scoring hits to Mark Loretta and Juan Pierre in an inning where the Rockies phones to the bullpen mysteriously ceased functioning.

Morales' final line was ugly - 0.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 hits, 2 BB, raising his season ERA to 4.50. He has been unquestionably uneven of late, but he remains a weapon that Jim Tracy cannot draw from elsewhere. He will/needs to be on the playoff roster.

Also of note: this was just the 3rd time in 38 relief appearances that Morales has permitted multiple runs. That's 7.89% of his appearances. For comparison, Huston Street has been guilty of that offense 7.81% of his outings this year. I know Morales has been frustrating, but we'll need him - we can just hope he can get his head on straight.

92 - 69

Games Back: 2

Streak: Lost 1

Games Left: 1

Dominance From the Start

After six days of Los Angeles playing with the composure akin to a roster filled with September call-ups, it was their youngest member that finally showed up to play.

Clayton Kershaw, 21, pitched six sterling shutout innings, striking out ten and allowing just three singles. He retired the first 11 Rockies hitters, nine by strikeout, before Todd Helton pulled a single to right in the fifth to break up a perfect game.

Jorge De la Rosa was up to the task though, as he retired all nine batters he faced, four by strikeout, before leaving two pitches into the fourth with an apparent right groin strain, ruining his bid to tie the Rockies record for wins in a season

The Rockies' lefty had thrown just 40 pitches, and his absence cannot be understated. Jose Contreras deserves a pat on the back for throwing three scoreless innings around traffic, but the way de la Rosa was throwing, Franklin Morales would have never seen the field. In a season where injuries have largely left the Rockies rotation alone, it's unfortunate that minor groin tightness at the eleventh hour ended the Rockies hopes.

Comment of the Night

Game

Oh well. I can’t bring myself to be too too upset, especially considering a week ago we didn’t even think we’d be in this position.

I think I might be more upset about not being able to see what Jorge could have done had he stayed in, than I am the game itself.

by holly96 on Oct 3, 2009 11:13 PM MDT

I'll second everything holly96, but I'll add this: the Rockies have had an epic run, they remain the hottest playoff team in the National League, and though Colorado will face a scary southpaw triumvirate without homefield, the Phillies will have a tough series on their hands.

Join after the jump for the fangraph and the row call.

WPA Heroes:
Jorge de la Rosa (.145) - 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 4 K, 0 BB. 0-for-1, K.
Jose Contreras (.139) - 3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 K, BB. 0-for-1, K.
Todd Helton (.052) - 2-for-4, K.

WPA Zeroes:
Franklin Morales (-.372) - 0.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 2 BB.
Brad Hawpe (-.188) - 0-for-3, K, GIDP
Troy Tulowitzki (-.109) - 0-for-4, K

Row Call

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1827 comments, 77 Rowbots and Guests

Dodgers Wanted To Wait For True Blue LA Night

Eric Stephen — Sat, 03 Oct 2009 19:01:02 -0000

via www.brooklandsvideo.com

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This is starting to get a little comical. Nine times the Dodgers had a chance to win the National League West, with either a win or a Rockies loss. Nine times they have been denied. Tonight becomes divisional match point number 10, and it just happens to be True Blue LA night at Dodger Stadium!

The Dodgers' playoff situation is pretty simple:

Win one of the next two games, and they are the top seed in the NL playoffs, with home field advantage during the first two rounds.
Lose both games, and the Dodgers are the number four seed, likely traveling to Philadelphia to start the NLDS

The Cardinals can no longer get the top seed. They can only max out at 93 wins, and the winner of the NL West will have at least 94 wins. Any win by the Phillies or loss by the Cardinals locks the Cardinals in as the number three seed, meaning they will play the winner of the NL West in the NLDS.

If the Phillies win one of their two remaining games, they are guaranteed at least the number two seed, by virtue of having the tiebreaker over the Cardinals, and would play the wild card winner in the NLDS.

If the Rockies win both games, they will win the West, and are guaranteed at least the number two seed. If the Rockies end up tying Philadelphia at 94 wins (Phillies would also have to win their final two), the Phillies would get the top seed by virture of winning the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Rockies. If the Rockies lose a game, they are the wild card, and the number four seed.

As bad as the Dodgers are playing, they still just need one win. One win will fix everything. it really is that simple.

Team	W-L	GB
Dodgers	93-67	---
Phillies	92-68	1
Rockies	92-68	1
Cardinals	91-69	2

The Dodgers' fate rests in the hands of young Clayton Kershaw. It seems like a tall task for a 21-year old who hasn't pitched past four innings in a game for over four weeks, but if anyone is up to it, it's Kershaw. Kershaw will be the game two starter in the NLDS, so what better way to prepare for the playoffs than winning the division clincher?

The Rockies counter with Jorge de la Rosa, an under-the-radar 16-game winner this season. It's easy to discount his 4.45 ERA or his 0-5 record and 7.12 ERA against the Dodgers in his career, but like Ubaldo Jimenez, it's important for the Dodgers to not overlook de la Rosa. On the road, de la Rosa is 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA and a 3.93 FIP. Actually, his overall FIP is just 3.98, so he has enjoyed a nice season.

More importantly, tonight is True Blue LA night at the stadium! It is our second trip this season. We showed up 20 strong in San Diego on July 3 for the return of Manny Ramirez (more pictures here), and tonight we increase our throng from one Hall of Famer (Sutton) to another (Koufax), as 32 seats in the reserved level, section 44, rows K through N, will be filled by True Blue LA faithful.

We will plan to meet at the seats before the game. We have a few fun things in store, including some prizes to give away. A fun time shall be had by all, especially if the Dodgers are able to clinch the division.

I have seen the Dodgers clinch twice in person:

September 30, 1995: a win in San Diego on the penultimate day of the season behind Hideo Nomo gave the Dodgers the NL West crown
September 30, 2006: a win in San Francisco, also on the next-to-last day of the year, gave the Dodgers a playoff spot (the division was still in play, but they ended up as the wild card) behind Greg Maddux

I lived in San Diego for about 14 years up until I moved earlier this season, but if I didn't move maybe I could have been there in person for another road September 30th clinch on Wednesday. That didn't happen, so I'll have to settle for clinching the division at home in the company of friends and family.

The Dodgers before the game will honor Juan Pierre for winning the organization's Roy Campanella Award for being the Dodger who "best exemplifies the spirit and leadership of the late Hall of Fame catcher." In addition, the Dodgers will honor their minor league player of the year (Dee Gordon), and pitcher of the year (Scott Elbert). To help mimic a game situation for Elbert, the Dodgers can have a person stand in the left-handed batter's box as Elbert receives the award, then have Elbert come off the mound after an all too brief ceremony.

Kathy Ireland will throw out a ceremonial first pitch, an interesting choice on a night featuring Star Wars fans and blogger fans. Remember folks: no Lightsabers will be allowed into Dodger Stadium.

Game Time: 7:10pm

TV: Prime Ticket, MLB Network

Baseball Reference Preview

What should the Brewers do with Manny Parra?

KLSnow — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 19:13:14 -0000

Later this week, Manny Parra will make his last start of the 2009 season, giving him one last chance to maintain some momentum heading into the offseason and spring training of 2010. I don't think anyone got the season they were hoping for from Parra, who's spent part of 2009 in AAA due to ineffectiveness, part of it on the shelf with a stiff neck, and the remainder being either infuriatingly inconsistent or simply infuriating.

Nearly every projection for the 2010 Brewer roster includes Parra in the rotation, and certainly, if he can bounce back from a rough season, he would be one reason to predict a major improvement over 2009. The problem is, Manny Parra hasn't just had a bad season, he's had a historically bad season.. Among pitchers who have thrown at least 120 innings, Parra's 6.16 ERA is the third worst in franchise history:

Pitcher	Year	ERA
Glendon Rusch	2003	6.42
John Snyder	2000	6.17
Manny Parra	2009	6.16
Allen Levrault	2001	6.06
Gene Brabender	1970	6.02

He also has the worst WHIP:

Pitcher	Year	WHIP
Manny Parra	2009	1.784
John Snyder	2000	1.764
Glendon Rusch	2003	1.751
Jeff Suppan	2009	1.692
Jimmy Haynes	2000	1.645

And the third most hits per nine innings:

Pitcher	Year	H/9
Glendon Rusch	2003	12.48
Mike Caldwell	1984	11.43
Manny Parra	2009	11.34
Scott Karl	1999	11.20
Larry Sorensen	1980	11.13

There are a lot of names on those lists that no one should be proud to be listed next to. Even while playing for a franchise that's had more than it's share of terrible pitching in the past, Parra's 2009 season is arguably one of the worst in franchise history.

Obviously, Parra is still young, left handed, and has tremendous stuff when he's on. But it might be time to stop making excuses for him: He'll be 27 years old in October (he's only ten months younger than Chris Narveson), and if the Brewers are serious about contending in 2010, then they could be seriously hindered by a decision to keep trotting him out there and seeing if he can work through his troubles.

If I ran the Brewer front office, there are several courses of action I'd have to seriously consider taking with him. Follow the jump to read about them.

I'll start with the controversial one:

Urge him to play winter ball. After pitching 166 innings in 2008, Manny has thrown 162 this season (including 24.2 in AAA), and will likely finish 2009 with under 170. Without overextending himself too far, Parra could probably make somewhere in the range of 5-6 starts for a winter league team, and those additional starts would give him an opportunity to work things out and potentially build some momentum for 2010. If he can make a few good starts this winter, maybe he'll bring some confidence with him to camp. Even if he struggles in winter ball, he won't have much less momentum than he has now.

Get him a psychiatric evaluation. If you've watched Manny pitch more than one time this season, you've probably seen him pout his way through a rough outing at least once, or sit on the end of the bench and look like he's about to cry after getting pulled. Parra is routinely accused of having a lack of mental toughness, but maybe there's more to it than that.

It wasn't that long ago that Jorge de la Rosa was in a similar situation with the Brewers - great stuff, poor command, "mental toughness" issues. The Brewers eventually traded JDLR to the Royals for Tony Graffanino, and he struggled for parts of two seasons there before being dealt to the Rockies. He struggled there too until he started seeing a sports psychologist. Read through that article and tell me JDLR's problems don't sound a lot like Manny's problems. De la Rosa has made 31 starts for the Rockies this season and is right around league average.

Write him onto the 2010 roster in pencil, not ink. After the season he's had, Parra hasn't earned any favors and should have to earn his way onto the team and into the rotation next season. Even if no one else is brought in to compete for a spot, Parra should have to beat out the likes of Chris Narveson and Chase Wright to be a part of the rotation next spring.

As I mentioned above, Parra is left handed and has great stuff when he's on, but he's also been wildly inconsistent and he'll turn 27 before next season. It's time to stop treating him like a kid and hold him accountable if he's not capable of performing at the expected level.

Rockies Survive on Miracle Double Play, Take Series with 4-3 Win over Cardinals

Jabberwocky — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:55:21 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Winning is the best medicine.

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Once again, Omar Quintanilla's pixies were right about a Rockies victory this afternoon--though they very nearly were mistaken.

It was a game that, despite leading most of the way and having a bevy of opportunities with men in scoring position, seemed like the Rockies were going to lose. Clint Barmes had something to say about that.

The Rockies' second baseman came through in a big way with a suberb diving catch in short right field with runners on the corners and one out in the ninth in a one run game. Strangely, Albert Pujols, who had been intentionally walked and was at first, never broke stride and Barmes had an easy double-up of Pujols at first base to end the game. Huston Street got six outs for his 34th save of the year and Jorge De La Rosa, who struggled through five innings (4 hits, 3 runs, 3 BBs, 8 Ks) picked up his 16th win (16-9) while Kyle Lohse (6-9) took the loss.

Offensively, the Rockies struggled to execute once again in RISP opportunities, going 2-11 (several of them with a man on third and less than two out), but did manage four runs (with big RBI hits by Tulo, Hawpe, CarGo, and Helton) on eight hits (two each by CarGo, Helton, and Tulo).

Box Score

With the victory and an Atlanta win, the Rockies' magic number only decreased by one to five over the Braves, who still sit 2.5 games behind Colorado in the Wild Card chase. It is likely mean that it is a two-team horse race for the final playoff spot in the NL, with the Rockies still very much in control of their own destiny. In addition, the Rockies finished the season series against the Cardinals with a 6-1 advantage--food for thought for a future potential playoff series against the Redbirds.

88 - 68

Games Back: 5

Streak: Won 1

Games Left: 6

via www.fangraphs.com

We Who Are About to Die Salute: Huston Street (.292), Troy Tulowitzki (.171), Carlos Gonzalez (.154), Clint Barmes (Honorary Mention for Awesome Play)
We'll Forgive You...This Time: Clint Barmes (-.147--yeah, he was kind of horrible until that play), Jorge De La Rosa (-.063), Ian Stewart (-.052)

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Rockies 11, Padres 10: Well, that was interesting...

theoldgrizzlybear — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 04:49:11 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

2 months ago: Colorado Rockies' Brad Hawpe follows the flight of his three-run home run against the San Diego Padres in the first inning of a baseball game in Denver on Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2009. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

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I must be bad luck. The moment I turned on the game, Juan Rincon began walking the entire San Diego roster and Franklin Morales couldn't get the third out to save his life. BUT, right when I turned off the game, Morales (apparently) induced a game-ending flyout and the Rockies held on to beat the scrappy Padres 11-10.

There was a lot of bad news in this game, especially for being one which the Rox came out on top. Jorge De La Rosa turned in a bit of a stinker, lasting just 2.1 innings and allowing six runs on six hits and three walks, while constantly searching for the strike zone. Carlos Gonzalez left in the second inning with hamstring tightness. Those, combined with the follies of two key relievers listed above, and there is some cause for concern.

However, the Rockies had their share of good fortune in this game as well. Brad Hawpe and Clint Barmes each showed signs of breaking out of their extended slumps. Hawpe hit a three run homer and walked a couple of times, and Barmes went 3-for-4, including an inside-the-park home run. In addition, Huston Street recorded two scoreless outs in the seventh, including a strike out. All in all, it seems to be a good night for the Rox, who have a ~~good chance of taking a~~ five game lead in the NL Wild Card standings, as San Francisco ~~currently trails Arizona late in their game (although the D-Backs started the ninth inning roughly, a la Colorado...looks like I need to stop watching this game, too).~~ lost to the D-Backs.

86 - 65

Games Back: 5

Streak: Won 3

Games Left: 11

Continue after the jump for the win probability graph, Row Call, and tomorrow's starters...

via www.fangraphs.com

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Great job tonight, everybody!!! Thanks, PR staff, for hanging out.

Tomorrow: Tim Stauffer (4-7, 3.56) vs. Jason Marquis (15-11, 3.84)...same time, same place. GO ROCKIES!!!!

The Tyler Colvin Era Begins: Cubs vs. Brewers Preview, Monday 9/21, 7:05 CT

Al — Mon, 21 Sep 2009 21:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

Write your own caption.

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Tyler Colvin, the Cubs' #1 pick in the 2006 draft out of Clemson, will join the team in Milwaukee tonight and make his major league debut. Lou says we'll see a lot of him:

"We'll get another outfielder and we'll get a look at our future," Cubs manager Lou Piniella said. "We'll put him in the outfield and let him play."

Good. Sometimes, solutions to problems are found elsewhere than expensive free agency. The Cubs might do well in 2010 with a platoon of Colvin and Reed Johnson (who may also be activated tonight; Johnson is quoted here as saying, "I'm healthy enough to play.") in center field and moving Kosuke Fukudome back to a position he plays better, right field. Doing that might allow money to be spent to upgrade other positions (perhaps shortstop?) and build a better bench than we've had in 2009.

In addition to Colvin, I'd like to see Jake Fox and Andres Blanco play every day for the rest of the season. Even if Fox isn't part of the 2010 Cubs, if he can put up decent numbers the rest of the year, maybe some AL team would take a chance on him as a part-time DH. Blanco should at the very least be the Cubs' principal backup infielder in 2010, and I think he could push Ryan Theriot to be the starting SS. Blanco hasn't hit much, but he will be 26 next April, doesn't strike out much, and his defense is outstanding.

I like this article on how to choose your favorite player. The choice made here is a good one, too.

Today's Starting Pitchers


Tom Gorzelanny Cubs	vs.	Braden Looper Brewers

5-2	W-L	3-1
5.29	ERA	4.05
30	SO	18
12	BB	15
3	HR	2
vs. Mil	--	vs. Cubs

Note: Gorzelanny's numbers below are with the Cubs only. See the pitcher box above for his full-season numbers.

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Tom Gorzelanny	2-1	10	4	0	0	0	0	25.1	21	15	15	3	8	23	5.33	1.14

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Braden Looper	13-6	31	31	0	0	0	0	178.2	199	105	97	35	61	93	4.89	1.46

Braden Looper's last start was against the Cubs against the Cubs at Wrigley Field last Wednesday. They hit him pretty well -- nine hits and three walks in five innings, scoring five runs; but Cubs pitching wasn't very good that night. At 5.7 runs per start, Looper has the 2nd-highest run support in the NL (behind only Jorge de la Rosa), 5.7 runs per start, resulting in his 13-6 record.

Tom Gorzelanny is replacing Rich Harden in the rotation; we don't yet know if it will be just tonight, or for the rest of the year. Gorzelanny has made four starts for the Cubs, none since August 20 at Los Angeles. Three of those were decent-to-good; one was horrendous. Overall as a starter, he has a 4.82 ERA in 18.2 innings; throw out the one bad start and in the other three his ERA is 2.08. He is 3-3, 4.92 in nine career starts vs. Milwaukee. Ryan Braun is a particular nemesis -- 8-for-17 with 3 HR.

After national exposure last night, the Cubs now get exposure in only a handful of zip codes on WCIU. If you have EI, you'll get the FSN Wisconsin feed. For other games today, see the MLB.com Mediacenter.

MLB.com Gameday

Baseball-reference.com game preview

SB Nation game preview

Please visit our SB Nation Brewers site Brew Crew Ball.

Once again, just two overflow threads today -- 8:15 pm and 9:30 pm CDT. If there's a need for another one, please post as a FanShot.

Discuss amongst yourselves.