SB Nation - Joakim Soria

How Dayton Moore Can Have a Comeback Year

royalsreview — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 19:23:50 -0000

The Bravest Way to put on a jersey. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

After an intriguing beginning to his tenure as the General Manager of the Royals, Dayton Moore floundered in 2008 and 2009. Good moves started to give way to bizarre ones, and by the end of 2009, at least at the Major League level, Moore looked like one of the more clueless transaction hounds in the business. Dealing with criticism for the first time in his professional life, Moore, and the rest of his leadership team adopted a bunker mentality that only made them look worse. His in-season 2009 moves look almost vindictive: I will keep finding out-machines who suck defensively and there's nothing you can do about it!

Still, I don't know if Dayton Moore is destined to succeed or fail as the GM of the Royals. He played a large part in making the 2008-9 Royals bad and he's setup the 2010 Royals to be a bad team as well. Moreover, his refusal to actually rebuild on a large scale has pushed back the timeline for true contention in Kansas City. All of that being said, he did inherit a franchise in shambles and since he has the support of ownership, he still has time to have long-term success. It just won't happen soon.

But if the Royals are ever going to win under Moore, and we're talking 2011-13 here, the comeback needs to start now. Organizationally, the Royals can't have another lost year. Here's how Moore can start to turn it around:

Have a Relatively Non-Horrible Winter on the Free Agent Market: This one has already been partially shot by the horrific Jason Kendall signing, a move which made the Royals older, worse, more expensive. Yes, the Kendall signing was a moderate financial outlay, and yes, this is what nearly all baseball teams do. However, the Royals are not a large market or even middle market team. They are in the 28th-30th range. The pointless millions you spend on the Kendalls & Farnsworths of the world add up, and pretty soon you're making bad baseball decisions because you need to get under some arbitrary payroll number. Like, oh look, they did with the catching situation. The circle of horribleness is completed. So step one of this off-season needs to be no more pointless pickups with wasted millions and years tied up.
Be Honest About Where the Team Is: Dayton needs to go outside of the organization and have a few honest conversations with "baseball men" that he trusts. People that can be honest with him. He needs to talk to people about if the Royals can compete in 2011. If the Royals can compete in 2012. Where the rest of the division is going. Etc. There's no shortage of agreement within the organization about two things: it was terrible when they took over and everyone is currently doing a great job. They need to move beyond that now. They need to figure out where they are. They need a new finish line, other than "it sucks here, we've got work to do".
Actually Commit to the Rebuild: My hunch is, the advice will, or would, lead to one conclusion: the Royals have work to do. I love Zack Greinke, but the Royals can't base their decisions around keeping him happy or not wasting him in his prime. He's going to be around for awhile, so we can punt on 2010. I think, for the most part, the Royals have done this, although we can't be completely sure for the next few weeks. The Royals don't have to do a complete teardown, as they actually have some pieces in place, but they need to be aggressive in exploring trade possibilities involving Gil Meche, Joakim Soria, David DeJesus, Alberto Callaspo, etc. They can also go the other way, and trade one of their prospects for a soon-to-be-ready young Major Leaguer with numerous controlled-years remaining. The mindset needs to change. They need to view what they currently have as a way of getting somewhere better, not as part of some masterplan already coming together. If Billy Butler has a monster first half, shop him (he's already burned through a ton of service time and handles the easiest to fill position).
Lean on Your Skills: Dayton earned a sterling reputation as a scouting and player development guy. We know what he is. He's not a guy that's going to embrace new ideas, different voices. He's not going to diversify his portfolio. Which sucks, but it is what it is. In that case, he needs to go all in with what he does well: scouting and evaluating young players. Embrace that part of his identity and stop looking for the next Gil Meche signing. Moreover, this is also the identity of his top assistants. So go for it. Prove to us you're the best evaluators of young studs and overlooked aces around. To be honest, Dayton Moore has been an absolute disaster involving transactions at the Major League level. In a manner of speaking, he needs to gas up the rental car and hit the sandlot circuit again. He needs to spend less time enacting bizarre fantasies involving the Ross Gloads and Willie Bloomquists of the world. We get it: those guys are great and help you win and all the rest. Except they don't and we keep losing. If Dayton is the guy we think we hired, he remains a great option to aggressively rebuild the team by scouting amateur and minor league talent. We need that guy back.
Strengthen Your Standing in the Community: I use "community" broadly here: the baseball community, the Kansas City community, your relationships inside the organization. If this Dayton Moore thing is going to work at all, then ownership has to remain committed to being the Yankees of the amateur spending market. And much of that goes back to reputation and belief. To this point, against a lot of evidence to the contrary, they've believed in Dayton Moore. Will that last forever? To be blunt, 2009 sucked: the Royals sucked and the leadership team repeatedly came across as petty, vindictive, & paranoid. The local and national baseball media began to be much more critical of the Royals and a lot of the benefit of the doubt and goodwill Moore earned withered away. The Royals are in the entertainment business, and if the team continues to behave in the way it has over the last year, things are going to get a lot worse. At a certain point, the perception amongst the fans and the media gets so negative that the environment becomes too toxic to continue. I'm not saying Dayton Moore needs to hire Nate Silver. I'm not saying that Rany should throw out the first pitch on Opening Day. Let's start small and admit just one mistake. One. Let's work on restoring normal relations with the local media. Stop lecturing everyone. Stop saying dumb things. Basically, disappear for months at a time, and when you emerge, be engaging and humble rather than holier than thou. Dayton Moore needs Joe Posnanski back on his side. Ownership does not want to be a national joke, which is why they hired Moore. It's somewhat amazing that Moore himself seems to have lost sight of this. At present, a huge percentage of whatever success the Royals have had drafting lies at the credit of ownership, who has spent money. If they lose faith in Moore's ability to execute and roll back the budget, the goose is cooked.

There's another bullet point that we could add that would be something like Have Another Good Draft, but really, I think that's self-evident. Likewise, the Royal system needs something of a comeback year. That one isn't so much self-evident, as perhaps not entirely in Dayton's hands at this point. The little decisions that add up to developing players... well, the Royals need to hit a home run in 2010.

As you can see, many of these steps are inter-related. The ironic thing is, if the Royals were to fire Dayton Moore, someone like Dayton Moore would be precisely the kind of person they would be looking at to replace him.

The comeback needs to start now.

The Rays and The Rule 5 Draft

Erik Hahmann — Tue, 17 Nov 2009 12:30:13 -0000

The front office will undoubtedly be faced with many tough decisions this winter. We've discussed many of them; Crawford, the catcher situation, whether or not to trade Bartlett, etc. One decision that won't be so tough is deciding which players to put on the 40 man roster, the deadline for which is Friday.

Currently the Rays have three open spots on their 40 man roster, with another one possible since Jeff Bennett is not likely to remain with the team. There's no question that two of the roster spots will go to Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson, two of the top prospects in the organization, and baseball in general. As RJ noted a couple of months ago, the third spot will probably go to Aneury Rodriguez, the young reliever the Rays received in the Jason Hammel trade. The remaining roster spot, assuming Jeff Bennett isn't still around, will likely remain open to leave room for any player the team selects in the Rule 5 draft.

The organization has done many things right over the last few seasons, but Rule 5 draft has been one they have yet to figure out, though in their defense not many teams do. Here is a list of the Rays Rule 5 draft picks since 2006:

2006: Ryan Goleski

Goleski was selected first overall by the Rays, but would not stick around long and was sent back to Cleveland. After a .249/.333/.429 season in 2008 he would be out of baseball at 26 years old. The 2006 draft was the one that saw Josh Hamilton be claimed by the Reds after being left unprotected by the Rays. Also, Joakim Soria was selected second overall. He's ended up doing pretty well for himself.

2007: Tim Lehay

Once again the Rays would have the first selection, this time taking Tim Lahey. The 6'4 inch right hander would be a quick out; The Rays sold him to the Twins for cash considerations. No other players of note were taken in 2007.

2008: Derek Rodriguez

Upon the success of the 2008 season the Rays were finally not awarded the first pick. Instead they selected 19th and chose reliever Derek Rodriguez from the White Sox. Rodriguez would struggle in the spring and would be sold back to the White Sox for $25k. In this draft the Rays would unexpectedly lose reliever Eduardo Morlan, who they had acquired along with Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett in the Delmon Young trade, to the Brewers. However, Morlan would not make the Brewers roster and was sold back to the Rays for $25k, offsetting the cost of the Rodriguez deal.

As you can see, the Rule 5 draft has not been a very fruitful endeavor for the Rays in recent seasons, but that's ok. Getting lucky enough to draft a Johan Santana or Joakim Soria is fine and dandy , but protecting immense talents like Jennings and Hellickson far out weighs any player the Rays may select.

Free Agent Profile: Jose Valverde

davoag — Tue, 10 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Pat Sullivan - AP

Valverde found out how much money he could save with Geico...

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I recently read these two posts on Sabernomics by JC Bradbury about free agency. They got me thinking about how the Astros crop of free agents fits into the market, what kinds of deals comparable players got last season and what we could expect the (former) hometown boys to get this winter. Thus, another mini-series of posts on free agency.

[Sidenote 1: It's also worth noting that our first profile, Valverde, plays a position where the number of players doesn't necessarily correspond to openings on teams. Relievers can market themselves as closers without having vacated that position, thus making for a possibly over-glutted market where some guys will have to sign for significantly less as setup men]

Just the other day, I argued that the Astros should not offer Jose Valverde arbitration. My thinking was that Houston would be on the hook for way too much money, since Valverde would most likely accept the arbitration offer to get a big payday (albeit a one-year payday).

This may or may not be a popular opinion around these parts, so I thought we could look at the 2008 offseason to see what kind of contracts closer got. I ran down the biggies, the Type A's and a few other contracts that are similar to Valverde's numbers. For reference, El Papa Grande earned 8 million in 2009 and pitched 54 1/3 innings, striking out 56 and walking 21. Valverde converted 25 of 29 save opportunities and gave up five home runs. FanGraphs puts his value at a solid 3 million.

[Sidenote 2: I am skeptical of how WAR rates relievers, but after combing through some of this data, it looks like it comes close to nailing down closers, at least. Take that for what it's worth in the rest of this article]

The Comparables

Francisco Rodriguez, RHP, New York Mets

Contract Details: 3 years, 37 million (2m bonus, 09-8.5m, 10-11.5m, 11, 11.5m, 12-17.5m option)

Notes: K-Rod was not worth his contract last season, earning a value of just 1.5 million. Though relievers are typically devalued in WAR, I found that this wasn't necessarily the case with closers. Plenty of the contemporaries on this list had good, valuable seasons in the past. For instance, K-Rod was worth 17 million from 2007 to 2008. Unfortunately, he picked the wrong year to get injured. This contract would appear to be the upper range of Valverde's money.

Kerry Wood, RHP, Cleveland Indians

Contract Details: 2 years, 20.5 million (09-10m, 10-10.5m, 11-11m option)

Notes: Wood was worth 1.9 million in 2009 after totaling 10 million in value the previous season. His contract seemed to be in line with that, though his performance didn't suggest it would continue. It should be noted that only one reliever got a three-year deal. The rest had to settle for two-year deals or one-year fliers.

Brian Fuentes, LHP, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Contract Details: 2 years, 17.5 million (09-8.5m, 10-9m, 11-9m option)

Notes: This would appear to be the kind of deal that makes sense for Valverde. Fuentes marked one of the few Type A closers that was both offered arbitration and signed with a team in the offseason. We'll get to a couple other examples in a minute, but for now, let's say Fuentes did much better n 2008 than Valverde did last season, but still couldn't land a deal longer than two years. His almost 9 million average is just above what Valverde earned in 2009, and would certainly be a starting place for any arbitration discussion.

The Other Type A's

Trevor Hoffman, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

Contract Details: 1 year, 6 million (re-signed for 1 year, 8 million with an '11 option of 7 million)

Notes: Hoffman shows the other side of the coin for Valverde. The Padres did not offer Hoffman arbitration heading into last offseason, meaning a team would not have to give up draft picks to sign him. Despite coming off an injury-plagued season, the Brewers gave Hoffman a 6 million dollar tryout in 2009. The venerable saves champ was worth 6.7 million last season, so he performed to the contract and was rewarded with another one year deal.

Juan Cruz, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6 million (09-2.25m, 10-3.25m, 11-4m option)

Notes: Cruz was a surprise sign as a Type A free agent, since he had the heaviest cost, yet wasn't a closer. Of course, he was not good at all in 50 relief innings for the Royals this season, but this is Dayton Moore we're talking about. He'll do anything. As the quirkiest signing of last winter, Cruz fits right in. How much his situation will impact Valverde's is less clear. Cruz wasn't used the same way and didn't have the same relative value. Still, he got a contract in line with many middle relievers that will form the base of the reliever market.

The Outlier

Kyle Farnsworth, RHP, Kansas City Royals

Contract Details: 2 years, 9.5 million (09-4.25m, 10-4.5m, 11-5.25m option)

Notes: What did I say about Moore? He gave a 9.5 million dollar contract to Kyle Farnsworth, he of the ever-straight 150 MPH fastball. Of course, Trey Hillman felt obliged to use him in bizarre situations, confounding guys like Rob Neyer and Joe Posnanski. Farnsworth probably earned more money last season than he should have, but he was still worth 3 million, according to FanGraphs. That's also what Valverde was worth, as a point of reference.

Non-Free Agents of Note

Ryan Franklin, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

Contract Details: 2 years, 6.5 million (signed Sept. 1, 2009)

Notes: Franklin saved 38 games for the Cardinals in 2009, but will be heading into his Age 37 season. The Cardinals wisely locked him up for a reasonable 6.5 million over two seasons. That significantly lowers the salary precedent for a guy like Valverde, though, as his agent will have to work off a contract like Soria's to get comparable numbers.

Heath Bell, RHP, San Diego Padres

Contract Details: 1 year, 1.25 million (2008)

Notes: Bell will be due a big raise in 2010, since he led the NL with 42 saves in 2009. Heading into another year of arbitration, the Padres may decide a closer is not a luxury they're willing to splurge on, making Bell tradeable. I'd expect him to fetch anywhere between 4-6 million in arbitration, so that's the number a team's looking at if they go and get Bell. That also means Bell would be that much cheaper than a guy like Valverde on the open market.

Forecast for Valverde

El Papa Grande is one of nine different pitchers who could market themselves as closers this offseason, including Billy Wagner, J.J. Putz, Fernando Rodney and Brandon Lyons. Now, most people would argue that Valverde is the best of the crop, but that also carries a price. We can surmise from last year's market that even Valverde will not get more than a three year deal, and that his ceiling is probably around 10 million. Coming off an injury plagued season, though, means his market will be compressed slightly. Add to that the more reasonable deals signed by Joakim Soria (3 years, 8.75 million) and Franklin, and Valverde will be lucky to get 8m per season. In arbitration, though? The Astros risk paying him anywhere from 3 million to 11 million next season if they offer arb. and he accepts. Given that Wade will have around 15-17 million to work with, is it worth eating up that much of the budget for a closer?

My assumption is the Astros will decline to offer him arbitration and he will sign a two year deal for somewhere around 18 million, with a possible third year option for 10 million. I won't guess who'd give him that contract, but looking at both the market and last year's offseason, those numbers seem right.

Lunchtime Prowl: Sizemore's Ankle, Guillen for Pierre, the Second Base Dilemma, and Trading Closers

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:20:16 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

There may be no bigger question for the Detroit Tigers this offseason than whether or not to re-sign Placido Polanco.

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The Detroit Tigers Weblog talked to Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus, the industry's resident injury expert, about Scott Sizemore's ankle injury. Carroll said Sizemore should be ready for Spring Training. However, he's never seen a second baseman with the sort of tendon injury that Sizemore suffered, so "it's tough to judge."

On his blog, the Detroit News' Tom Gage addresses speculation that the Tigers might pursue outfielder Juan Pierre this winter. But with Pierre owed $18.5 million on the remaining two years of his contract with the Dodgers, Gage thinks the only way Detroit could take on that kind of money is if they shipped a big salary of their own to L.A. For instance, the two years and $26 million they still owe Carlos Guillen.

Pierre batted .308/.365/.392 with 30 stolen bases in 42 attempts this season for the Dodgers.

At Mack Avenue Tigers, Kurt Mensching looks at the choices the Tigers face at second base next season. Do they let Placido Polanco go entirely or do they offer him arbitration? One key point Kurt brings up - and this is worth considering when reading Gage's article, as well - is that we don't know exactly what the Tigers' budget will be.

Speaking of second base, Fire Jim Leyland looks at Polanco's total value to the Tigers this season. How much did Polanco contribute to the Tigers with his bat? How much value did he provide with his glove? And how does Polanco compare with other second basemen in baseball?

Lynn Henning wonders how the Tigers can make their offense more potent next season. Are they mostly relegated to hoping most every batter on the roster just puts up better numbers in 2010? Henning says he expects Dave Dombrowski to add "a bat or two" this winter. But seriously, where would you put them?

How did the Tigers rate defensively this season? Lee Panas looks at each player's Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), and finds that Detroit was above-average in the field. Will that continue next season? Or might the Tigers have to sacrifice some defense for offense? (Lee also rates Detroit's offense in another post.)

If you missed it over the weekend (I posted it to the front page late on Friday), John Kmiecik filed his latest review for the 2009 Tigers. This time out, he takes a look at Carlos Guillen's season.

Over at The Daily Fungo, Mike McClary lists five reasons why he won't be watching the World Series. I think he could be missing out on a good one, though I generally agree with most of the reasons he listed. (Though I find the Phillies an intriguing team.)

Aaron Gleeman wonders if this might be the right time for the Minnesota Twins to consider trading Joe Nathan. (Just to clarify, he's not saying they should.) Nathan, by the way, just had surgery to remove bone chips from his pitching elbow.

This might be a theme. Sam Mellinger thinks the Kansas City Royals should look into trading their closer, Joakim Soria. As he puts it, "What good is that fine scotch if you don't drink it?"

With the news that Tony La Russa might hire Mark McGwire as the St. Louis Cardinals' hitting coach, Lookout Landing imagines how a coaching session with McGwire might go.

The Dugout has a funny take on the story, too. It took me a while to figure out who the "SonOfJorEl" nickname was for. Maybe I need another cup of coffee.

I know some fans aren't thrilled that the World Series is an all-East Coast affair. But regardless of convenience, I think it's pretty cool that the Phillies traveled to New York by train, rolling into Penn Station last night. Maybe not so cool for commuters and Amtrak employees, though.

Pirates.com: Donnie Veal's Disabled List Placements Were Bogus

Charlie — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 04:34:03 -0000

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

2 months ago: Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Donnie Veal throws against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the fifth inning of a baseball game in Pittsburgh Friday, Sept. 25, 2009. The Pirates won 3-1, with Veal pitching two scoreless innings to get his first major league win. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

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A pretty hilarious note from the mothership. Emphasis mine:

[Donald] Veal made only six appearances before the All-Star break and was twice put on the disabled list so the Pirates could take advantage of sending him to the Minors for rehab work.

Silly me, I thought the disabled list was for players who were hurt. Neal Huntington himself actually admitted in early June that his decision to place Veal on the DL for a "groin strain" was "an aggressive placement." Dejan Kovacevic of the Post-Gazette has called Veal's DL assignments "dubious." And now we have Jen Langosch claiming that Veal's DL stints were straight-up fraudulent. Well, she doesn't say that exactly, but she does say that injury isn't the reason he went on the DL.

I wrote about the Rule 5 draft at length in early 2008 and it's kind of a pet peeve of mine, so I'd encourage you to check that article out. Some background here, though: basically, Rule 5 picks like Veal are required to stay on their new teams' major league rosters the entire year. The only exception occurs when a player goes on the DL, after which he is allowed to "rehab" for several weeks in the minors.

I'm not blaming Huntington or the Pirates for any of this. They are simply trying to do their best with the tools available to them, and since other teams also use fake DL trips to protect Rule 5 picks, the Pirates should do it too. But the fact that there is any need for these phantom DL stints to take place proves that the system is broken. At least as I understand it, the Rule 5 draft is intended to prevent teams from hoarding major-league-ready talent in the minors. The Rule 5 draft should redistribute that talent to teams who don't have as much talent in the majors; that's why teams are required to keep Rule 5 picks on their roster the entire year.

In practice, though, teams often don't use Rule 5 picks on players who are genuinely ready, which means they essentially have to hide the player for the entire season. The fake rehabs are one way of doing that, but teams are also required to keep the player on their active roster for 90 days. If they don't, they have to keep him on their active roster the next year until 90 total days have been reached.

The idea of hiding a player on the bench, in the bullpen or in the minors is antithetical to the spirit of the Rule 5 draft, which is supposed to put the best possible players on the field by preventing talent-rich teams from stockpiling too many talented, mature players. Veal himself might be happy as a Rule 5 draftee--I'm sure he got paid a lot more this year than he did in the minors--but for the game of baseball, his experience has been a perverse failure in two ways.

1) It has forced the Pirates to allow Veal, who plainly was not ready to pitch in the big leagues this year, to pitch in the big leagues. He racked up a 7.16 ERA, walked more than a batter an inning, and just generally looked clueless outside of one awesome relief appearance against the Dodgers in late September.

2) It has prevented Veal from developing as a pitcher. This year, between the majors and the minors, Veal pitched 54 2/3 innings. (He'll pick up a few more frames in the Arizona Fall League.) In 2008, he pitched nearly three times that many. Veal plainly has talent, and he just as plainly has serious flaws. It's probably true that he got better quality coaching from Joe Kerrigan in the majors than he would have gotten in the Cubs' minor league system, but how much better can he reasonably be expected to get if he doesn't pitch?

So maybe Veal benefits here from getting paid, but only in a short-term, Pyrrhic-victory sort of way. If this season interrupted his development to the degree that it will end up preventing him from having a real major league career, then he loses. The Pirates benefit if Veal eventually learns to pitch better. But how does baseball benefit? This season was probably a net negative for Veal's development, and in the meantime the league had to put up with a guy pitching who blatantly shouldn't have been there. Veal pitching 16 innings wasn't a huge deal, but baseball still shouldn't want that to happen.

It's always cool when some obscure guy gets picked in the Rule 5 draft and immediately proves he belongs--Dan Uggla and Joakim Soria come to mind. But those cases are few and far between, and Veal's DL trips just prove the Pirates know what was obvious to the rest of us: that Veal wasn't ready for the majors. Which is dumb, and which isn't the sort of situation the Rule 5 draft is supposed to create. Veal's case was, as far as I can tell, the worst of the 2009 Rule 5 shenanigans. But then again, the only player in it who did much more than just get by was shortstop Everth Cabrera, who hit .255/.342/.361 and ran like the wind for the Padres. And this is the second straight year the Pirates have had a Rule 5'er rotting in their bullpen--last year it was Evan Meek, who was actually allowed into some high-leverage situations before a trade with Tampa effectively removed him from the Rule 5 process.

Some possible solutions:

1) Make the 40-man rosters a bit smaller, say 38 players or so. This would widen the pool of genuinely ready players available in the draft. Unfortunately, I don't think the union would ever go for this.

2) Currently, a team must pay $50,000 to the old team to select its player, and if the player doesn't cut it, he can eventually be offered back to the old team for $25,000. Raise that $50,000 to an amount that wouldn't be completely trivial for a major league team--perhaps about $400,000. Then give $50,000 to the team from which the player is being selected and put the other $350,000 in the revenue sharing pool. (This last bit prevents poor teams from selling off players for cash.) This raises the penalty for getting a Rule 5 pick wrong, meaning flubbing a Rule 5 pick would no longer be the no-lose proposition for a team.

3) This is Azibuck's idea. Allow the new team to pick the player in December, then keep him in the minors until mid-June. After that, he has to stay on the 25-man the rest of the season, or be offered back.

4) Just do away with rehab assignments for Rule 5 players.

Fantasy Baseball: 2010 AL Closer Dynasty/Keeper Rankings

Ian, yo — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 03:05:47 -0000

More photos » by Nam Y. Huh - AP

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1. Mariano Rivera- Another year older, another year of a sub 2.00 ERA. I do think Mo's age will catch up with him one day, whether it be in the form of injury or inefective-itis, but I don't think that will be 2010. I think Rivera will have another season of 35+ saves and excellent peripherals.

2. Joe Nathan- Had a career high 47 saves and while he had the highest ERA in 4 years, a 2.10, isn't really all that bad. Look for an ERA around 2 with 35+ saves again and a K/9 possibly hovering over 10.

3. Jonathan Papelbon- Numbers close to career averages except a BB/9 of over 3, which is the highest since he'd been put in the closer role. Boston fans seem fed up with him and the Sox have a closer in waiting in Daniel Bard. Don't be surprised to hear Papelbon's name floated in trade rumors.

4. Joakim Soria- Posted the highest K/9 in his career and saved 30 games while missing time in 2009. Expect another season with peripherals hovering in the same area but don't be surprised to see another year with a low save total.

5. David Aardsma- Career highs across the board, including innings pitched. This will be the first time Aardsma has played back to back seasons in the same city, which could help his cause extremely and maybe provide the consistency needed.

6. Brian Fuentes- Had the most saves in baseball in 2009, but had a large drop in K/9 and a spike in whip (1.40 with a career of 1.26) He may get you a high total, but it may not be pretty.

7. Andrew Bailey- Logged 83.1 innings as a rookie so you can definitely see a regression. A regression could be a jump in whip and ERA, but expect the K's to be there.

8. J.P. Howell/Other- The closer situation in Tampa is a bit sketchy, but I don't feel confident with any of the closers left on this list, so Howell gets this by default. Keep in mind that the Rays could go out and get a closer in free agency or trade (hint: Billy Wagner.) If they do, that person would likely be number eight still.

9. Frank Francisco- Spent many weeks on the DL in the 2009 season, and had an ERA floating on the high end of the 3's. Possibly due to the injuries. I'm fine taking a closer on a solid offensive team this late.

10. Bobby Jenks/Matt Thornton/Other- Whispers have been spreading about Kenny Williams sending a letter mentioning his veterans being available in trades and Jenks was fairly disappointing in 2009. Thornton has the stuff to be a nasty closer and 2010 could be the season it happens.

Twins Blow Opportunities, Can't Close Deficit To One

Jesse — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:09:13 -0000

More photos » by ED ZURGA - AP

I found this in my glove, I'm not sure what it does.

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Twins 1, Royals 4

Today's game is just what the title suggests--a lack of execution at opportune times. Or inopportune times, I think they were the same today. With Zack Greinke on the mound any and all teams need to take advantage of all chances they can get. That didn't happen.

Francisco Liriano had a terrible day. A 20-pitch first inning didn't net a run for the Royals, but it set the tone. The second inning saw Lizzy give up a pair of extra-base hits, a passed ball and a trio of walks, although only one of the free passes cost Minnesota. Yunieksy Betancourt got around on a 95-mph fastball for a three-run homer about halfway through the frame, and although it was all Kansas City would get it cost Liriano dearly. 25 pitches in the inning is all it took to chase him from the game with runners on the corners and two away. Jeff Manship applied pressure to the wound and momentarily stopped the bleeding.

Ultimately Liriano just couldn't consistently locate...well, anything. He tried taking something off his fastball, that didn't work. He reared back and got everything into the fastball, and if it actually hit the strikezone it probably got smacked. The changeup was useless, and without the fastball or the changeup the slider was useless, too. And once Liriano started to fly off the rails, all borderline pitches went in favor of the Royals...and rightfully so.

Still, the game was never out of hand. Orlando Cabrera doubled in the first, but was stranded. Jose Morales grounded into a double play to kill a possible rally in the second. With the bases loaded in the third Greinke got through Cabrera, then struck out Joe Mauer and Jason Kubel to escape unscathed. With two men on and nobody out in the sixth, the Royals Ace fought back to get three consecutive outs, allowing just one run. Morales and Matt Tolbert reached to lead off the seventh before Greinke sat down three in a row.

Crucial chances, all wasted. That's what great pitchers can do to a hot team, and that's what Greinke did to the Twins. He made us his bitches.

Kubel hit into Minnesota's second double play in the eighth, which was painful considering the single and hit-by-pitch that followed, which you know by now netted the Twins another zero in the frame. Denard Span and Cabrera hit back-to-back two out singles in the ninth, but Joakim Soria completed his two inning save by inducing Mauer to ground out to first base.

The Twins tried. They did. Their tide was simply stemmed at every opportunity. Cabrera stranded five runners. Mauer stranded six and Kubel stranded seven. It's not just about what you do, it's also about when you do it. Orlando and Joe combined for five hits today, but neither tallied a run batted in.

On the plus side the White Sox knocked off the Tigers to, once again, keep the deficit at two games. Tomorrow's opening tilt for the (as of yet) more serious series of the season takes on a far more intense nature as a result. Winning three of four would mean a tie for the division title with just three games to decide the crown. A series tie would reduce Minnesota's title hopes to a prayer, while anything less would guarantee elimination.

No stars and no duds tonight. It's time to focus on the Tigers.

Thanks once again to fischean for supplying us with an overflow thread. Even the moderators can't make every game, so kudos for stepping up! If one of the moderators aren't around anyone should feel free to step in and take it upon themselves to provide a thread where things don't slow down.

Game 132 Wrap - A's fail to make Joakim Soria as Royals escape 9th, 4-3

emperor nobody — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 05:59:22 -0000

It's funny until someone gets bronzed alive with the winning run on in the 9th.

Well, that was another classic te e. If baseball were foreplay, these A's would be running (streaking?) away with the West.

The Athletics put the first 2 aboard in the ninth but the rally died there, with Joakim Soria (in just his 15th inning of work tonight) inducing Nomar Garciaparra to bloop out to LF to end it after freezing Jack Cust on a (what else) 3-2 pitch for the 2nd out. The A's failed to take advantage of a Royals bullpen which had more trouble throwing strikes than Earl Anthony with his eyes poked out.

Wow, I've sucked for how many years in a row now?

This game kind of boiled down to the question of the day, which might've been "Why did Bob Geren remove Edgar Gonzalez after 5 innings and merely 69 pitches?" Before you could say WTF BOB, Jay Marshall and Jeff Gray had put Oakland in a 4-1 hole from which they would never emerge, with new A's nemesis Alberto Callaspo doing the biggest damage with a 2-run single. Late RBIs from Adam Kennedy (single) and Mark Ellis (fielder's choice) drew the A's closer but did not provide the needed cigar.

Not much else to say about it all, other than good game and get 'em tomorrow, which begins a fleeting 13 hours hence as we fire up another $2 Wednesday.

Thanks to everyone for making my AN debut a total blast, I really really really had an amazing time =)

Royals to extend GM Dayton Moore

Eli Greenspan — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:09:42 -0000

More photos » by ED ZURGA - AP

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MLB.com is reporting that the Royals are giving General Manager Dayton Moore a four year extension through 2014. The 2009 Royals have been quite a disappointment, with a 50-80 record. They own a .254 batting average, worst in the AL, and are on pace to have the worst record in the AL.

However, credit Moore with bringing in Joakim Soria, who owns a 2.25 ERA in 160 career appearances. Not only that, but Moore wisely held onto Billy Butler, who at 23, is starting put everything together at the plate.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Billy Butler	128	491	57	145	41	0	15	67	38	81	0	0	.295	.345	.470

Moore also handled the Zack Grienke situation very well. In 2006, Grienke left the Royals complex in Arizona for personal reasons. It was later revealed that he was suffering from a social anxiety disorder. The Royals put him on the 60-day disabled list and gave him time to recover. Now, Grienke is in Cy Young contention, with 13 wins and a 2.32 ERA.

James Quinn over at Royals Review wrote recently about the Royals struggling bullpen. More importantly, he points out several players the Royals have traded away who are now experiencing success. Jeremy Affeldt, who was traded by the Royals to the Rockies, has a 1.81 ERA in 58 games this season with the Giants. Former Royals first round draft pick J.P. Howell is starting to emerge with Rays, posting 2.48 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP in 60 games this season.

It is apparent that Moore hasn't been the most patient with his players, and it will be interesting to see if Moore can build the Royals back into a playoff contending team.

Game 124: Indians 10, Royals 6

Ryan — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 04:27:03 -0000

More photos » by Charlie Riedel - AP

Asdrubal Cabrera and Luis Valbuena, former Mariners, present double play combination.

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It's been really fun watching this team over the past couple weeks. Matt LaPorta was finally brought back, this time to stay. Chris Perez and Jess Todd, both received from St. Louis for Mark DeRosa, have quickly become the seventh and eighth inning men in the bullpen. After getting regular playing time, Andy Marte is starting to hit. And Luis Valbuena has hit .297/.360/.495 since the All-Star Break. Some year I wish I felt this good about this team early rather than late.

Tonight's game was a contrast in rebuilding teams. The Indians cratered in June, and despite a couple of roster-rending trades, have slowly but steadily improved since then. The Royals, on the other hand, started well but have inexorably sunk since. The pitching staff that carried an inept offense has stumbled, and that fall off has taken the rest of the team with them.

Gil Meche, who hadn't even pitched into the seventh inning since the middle of June, went seven tonight. Royals manager Trey Hillman, knowing how bad the Kansas City bullpen has been, elected to have closer Joakim Soria attempt a two-inning save. The move, like many others he attempted tonight, backfired in a spectacular way. After Soria retired Shin-Soo Choo, the next three Indians reached, culminating in a Luis Valbuena lead-taking three run homer. The Indians would add another three in the ninth off the Royals relievers who probably would have pitched the eighth, somewhat vindicating Hillman's strategy. In that frame, Asdrubal Cabrera showed like he was going to lay down a sacrifice bunt, but instead pulled the bat back a line a breaking ball down the line, scoring the runners he was going to move over.

Jeremy Sowers pitched well until the fifth, where he allowed a quick four runs to score. He did stick around through the seventh inning, but by that time he had given up a fifth run, and left trailing 5-4. Thanks to the Indian rally off Soria, he came out with a win, but he didn't pitch well considering the opposition.

Next Up: Masterson vs. Greinke, 8:10 PM

via www.fangraphs.com

Highest WPA		Lowest WPA
Luis Valbuena	.405	Jeremy Sowers	-.325
Pronk	.399	Kelly Shoppach	-.123
Shin-Soo Choo	.192	Grady Sizemore	-.069