SB Nation - Placido Polanco

Wednesday Rockpile: Off season progress report, Rockies 2010 playoff chances improve as the team does nothing

Rox Girl — Wed, 23 Dec 2009 17:10:17 -0000

So let's take a look back at how the NL ended the 2009 season:

NL West Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Los Angeles	95	67	.586	0	Lost 3
Colorado	92	70	.567	3	Lost 2
San Francisco	88	74	.543	7	Won 1
San Diego	75	87	.462	20	Lost 1
Arizona	70	92	.432	25	Won 1

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:02 AM EST)

NL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
St. Louis	91	71	.561	0	Lost 6
Chicago	83	78	.515	7.5	Lost 1
Milwaukee	80	82	.493	11	Won 3
Cincinnati	78	84	.481	13	Won 2
Houston	74	88	.456	17	Lost 3
Pittsburgh	62	99	.385	28.5	Lost 2

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:03 AM EST)

NL East Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Philadelphia	93	69	.574	0	Lost 1
Florida	87	75	.537	6	Lost 1
Atlanta	86	76	.530	7	Lost 6
New York	70	92	.432	23	Won 3
Washington	59	103	.364	34	Won 7

(updated 12.23.2009 at 10:03 AM EST)

So that's your basic straight up standings, if you want to go into more advanced detail (and you probably should) about how these teams stacked up on talent and skill without the luck you can look at Beyond the Boxscore or Baseball Prospectus or something, but straight W's and L's will serve as a solid start for where I'm going with this today.

So let's separate the teams into some talent groups, this time going by what we know of the teams' personnel at the end of last season rather than the standings:

Contender A Class (90+ wins)

Philadelphia
Los Angeles

Contender B Class (86-90 wins)

St. Louis
Colorado
Atlanta
Chicago

.500-ish teams (81-85 wins)

Arizona
San Francisco
Florida
Milwaukee
New York

I realize that the D-backs and Mets didn't finish anywhere close to .500 in 2009 and that the Giants and Marlins finished ahead of a couple of the teams in the group I have above them, but this is where taking out the luck, good or bad, comes in. In the cases of Florida and San Fran, they seemed to benefit from a large positive dose of divine favor in 2009 even as Arizona and New York were seemingly cursed from the get-go. Feel free to quibble with this placement in the comments, but the main point is that these are the 11 teams that appear to have a legitimate shot at making a playoff run in 2010.

So far in the off season, we've seen Los Angeles give up Randy Wolf, Orlando Hudson and Juan Pierre and drop into that second group with the Rockies and Cardinals, while the Phillies have grabbed a couple of minor upgrades with Roy Halladay over Cliff Lee and Placido Polanco over Pedro Feliz and given themselves a little separation from the rest of the league. Right now, it does not appear as if the Dodgers will be able to gain nearly enough of those cast-off wins back to get back to the Phillies level.

In the second group, the Cardinals and Rockies are both taking risks in replacing free agent starters leaving after career seasons, the Cards with Brad Penny in place of Joel Pineiro, the Rockies with the return of Jeff Francis in place of Jason Marquis. Insurance policies for both teams seem to be primarily a cache of young near-ready pitching talent. Both teams have similar bench depth issues to work out as well, the Cardinals need to replace Mark DeRosa and Rick Ankiel, the Rockies, Yorvit Torrealba and Garrett Atkins.

The good news for the Rockies in relation to the Cardinals (should they have to compete with each other for the wild card next season) is that 1) Dan O'Dowd got rid of this "Holliday distraction" the Cardinals are going through which is keeping them from making other moves a couple of years ago, and 2) while both teams can probably expect some regression in their starting rotation performance in 2010, it's usually a safe bet to expect a smaller step back from the team with the younger players, in this case, Colorado.

The Cubs are hoping that losing Milton Bradley is addition by subtraction, but the team's core seems to be declining as a group fairly rapidly, and actually looking at their ages, with their best hitting talent between the ages of 32-34 next season, I really suspect that they might be dropping into that .500 group without a major rebuild that doesn't involve Carlos Silva. The Braves, meanwhile, looked like they might have a decent team heading into 2010, but their replacement of Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez with Takashi Saito and Billy Wagner is a downgrade for next year, as is yesterday's deal of Javier Vazquez to the Yankees. Signing Troy Glaus would be useful, but I still think the overall impact of Atlanta's moves is to add a lot more downside risk to the team in 2010 without a substantial upside improvement.

Of the .500-ish teams, so far, most haven't made any moves that really put them into the next category. The Mets appear to be likely adding Jason Bay, which would be a decent start at that. Arizona got a little better for next year or two in acquiring Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy for Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth, but they still seem to be in a 82-85 win range which I think basically just catches them up to the Giants, who have as of yet done nothing. Florida gets a little better by aging a year, but not good enough, and their bullpen has been weakened. San Francisco is putting a lot of eggs into the Madison Bumgarner basket, either he or a second tier free agent like Jon Garland will have to replace the production that Randy Johnson and Brad Penny provided last season. That's a lot to ask given that the rest of their rotation, much like the Rockies, probably isn't going to be quite as good as it was in 2009.

Milwaukee's moves, such trading for Carlos Gomez and signing Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins have been mostly beneath the radar, but I really like what they've done so far. I still think they need more, but at least they're systematically going after the team's weaknesses on a budget without taking the kind of gambles that Atlanta is, or St. Louis did with the Penny acquisition.

So summarizing, the Rockies, who are gaining ground just by maturing into a peak phase, thus far have caught up with the Dodgers, and probably passed them talent-wise, just by sitting on their hands. Arizona's moved up a little and are within range of passing us if things fall their way in 2010, as are the Giants, but to put it in perspective, the gap between the Rockies and both those teams talent wise is probably still larger than it is between the Rockies and the Phillies the other direction.

As for the second playoff option, so far the news has been mostly positive as well, as none of the primary competitors outside the NL West with the possible exception of the Brewers have added enough talent to either make up for the players they've lost, or to otherwise catch up with Colorado. The last couple of seasons the Rockies have had similarly quiet winters, as Dan O'Dowd seems to prefer to wait until mid-season to add salary via trade if the team's in contention rather than going all in for the top free agents. Thus far this off season, I haven't seen any NL team besides the Phillies make moves that should push the Rockies to pursue a less budget conscious course.

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies to Allow Jayson Werth to Walk after 2010 Season?

raygu — Sat, 19 Dec 2009 17:00:19 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

about 1 month ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Jayson Werth watches his solo home run with New York Yankees catcher Jorge Posada and umpire Brian Gorman in the second inning of Game 3 of the Major League Baseball World Series Saturday, Oct. 31, 2009, in Philadelphia. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

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The Toronto Blue Jays wanted a package headlined by Phillies top prospect Domonic Brown when discussing dealing Roy Halladay to the Phillies last July. The Phillies changed course and traded for Cliff Lee. This offseason, Alex Anthopolous asked for a package that included Domonic Brown. This time, the Phillies enticed the Blue Jays with previously untouchable pitching prospect Kyle Drabek instead.

Couple the fact that the Phillies refused the deal Brown with the fact that outfielder Jayson Werth will become a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, and one may conclude that the Phillies may allow Werth to walk after the season. By that time, Brown may be ready to take over in right field, In addition the Phils just signed Halladay to a 3 year extension for $20 million per year and already have the following salary commitments:

Ryan Howard-$20 million
Chase Utley-$15 million
Raul Ibanez-$10 million
Jimmy Rollins-$8 million
Placido Polanco-$6 million
Joe Blanton-a raise from his 2009 salary of $5.75 million
Brad Lidge-$9 million
Roy Halladay-$15.75 million

That's approximately $86 million to 8 players on their 25 man roster. That doesn't include what Shane Victorino will get in salary arbitration. The Phillies are becoming the Yankees of the National League.

That won't be the only reason for letting Werth walk. If Brown continues to hit like he has in High A and AA in 2009, and shows some improved power and defense in right field, he could find himself in the Phillies starting lineup in 2011.

Oh, did I mention that I recently traded for Brown in the UBA league, so I am rooting for him.

Poll

Will the Phillies let Jayson Werth become a free agent after the 2010 season?

Does Anyone Like the Phillies' Lee Trade?

David S. Cohen — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 14:24:34 -0000

More photos » by Eric Gay - AP

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This is an honest question. Outside Phillies reporters (or ex-reporters) who rely on access to the team in order to put food on their table each day, are there any analysts who like what the Phillies did with Cliff Lee?

Obviously I can only read a small portion of what's out there, but what I've read isn't pretty. (And I agree with it.) Below is my sampling. In the comments, please post links to what you've seen from other analysts about the Lee trade. And if you find someone saying the Phillies did the right thing here, I'd in particular like to see that.

Matt Swartz, Baseball Prospectus: "The only team that does not necessarily come out ahead in this is the Phillies. The team really made two separate trades—three prospects for Roy Halladay conditional on an awesome extension, and Cliff Lee for three inferior prospects. The former will turn out to be a success and the latter will not. . . . The issue I take is that they could have non-tendered Joe Blanton (or, better yet, traded him for some inferior prospects) and Chad Durbin and won two or three more games in 2010 at the same $9 million salary. I say that even as someone who believes Blanton is vastly underrated, but they could have gotten better value by doing that. If Blanton was worth nothing on the trade market (which I am skeptical about), then the Phillies were foolish to offer him arbitration—clearly no one else would have even offered him his arbitration estimate on the free-agent market, so why pay him that much? Figure out what other teams would pay him and offer him that and a cookie."

Joe Sheehan, Baseball Prospectus: "This, in fact, gets to my biggest problem with the sequence: Roy Halladay just left $60 million on the table to come to Philadelphia. The Phillies couldn’t leave $9 million on it in pursuit of putting him on the best team in baseball? . . . The Phillies play in a taxpayer-funded ballpark, have been to back-to-back World Series—with all the direct revenue that generates—and will no doubt pack Citizens Bank Ballpark again in 2010 with another three million people paying even higher ticket, parking, concession, and souvenir prices. To trade away Cliff Lee in a blatant money move is utterly ridiculous under those circumstances, and worse still, turns the Roy Halladay trade into little more than a minor upgrade."

Christina Kahrl, Baseball Prospectus: "Less certain is the necessity of coupling this trade with the deal that put Lee in Seattle. Even if you accept for the sake of argument the suggestion that Amaro had to work within a budget, and that he had to have one or the other, this seems to suggest that the Phillies just blew it by being active early and, true to form, acted fast. If payroll's a problem, then the money spent on Placido Polanco or Ross Gload or Juan Castro or Brian Schneider—in short, the entire pack of elective add-ons, these veteran talents barely above the free-talent alternatives or players making close to the minimum—deserves to be seen collectively as needlessly spent money on players who don't significantly alter the Phillies' chances at a third pennant, not nearly so much as having a rotation with Doc and Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels gives you a rotation that might have been able to handily beat the best the AL might throw at you, and start a case for elevating the Phillies to dynastydom."

Dave Cameron, FanGraphs: "The Cliff Lee to Seattle portion of this trade just seems very light in return for the Phillies. They’re getting two power arms with a lot of questions marks and a speedy center fielder without a lot of power. None of these guys are top tier prospects. This is the best Philadelphia could have gotten for Lee? Really? A pu-pu platter of interesting, high-risk guys not really close to the majors for a Cy Young-quality pitcher who is already well on his way to Type A free agency? And, even if that’s true, why clear $8 million from the books by trading Lee? Surely, you could have moved Joe Blanton without eating any of his salary, even if you didn’t love the deals being offered. Or, how about this – don’t sign J.C. Romero, Brian Schneider, and Ross Gload, whose 2010 salaries are about equal to Lee’s. Replace those three reserves with league minimum guys and you’ve saved enough money to keep Lee around."

Evan Burnell, Hardball Times: "The Phillies overextended themselves financially last year and are trying to keep payroll steady (the $6 million they're receiving in the deal helps tremendously). In addition, the prospects back to Philadelphia help to replenish a farm system gutted by the Lee and Halladay trades. Unfortunately for Philadelphia, I don't think they're receiving anything more than midlevel prospects who are a long shot to have long-term value in town. They all look like eventual major leaguers, but are they anything more than replacement level? We can't answer that definitively. I do credit GM Ruben Amaro, however, for recognizing the need to replenish the farm system. [On the other hand,] the Seattle Mariners made a tremendous move acquiring Cliff Lee for three prospects that don't rank as even guaranteed future major leaguers."

Jason Bay Applesauce - Thole Flees Venezuela, Rule 5 Is A Bust, Halladay To The Phillies?

James Kannengieser — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 13:30:12 -0000

The first Winter Meetings of the Twitter era is now complete - thank goodness.

Meet the Mets

The big news of the day, as first reported by Mike Francesa, was the Mets' offer to Jason Bay in the neighborhood of four years, $65 million. If he accepted it would probably be an overpay but not a terrible contract for a team with the Mets' resources. Anything much higher than the initial offer would be bad news. Matt Holliday is obviously preferable but it would be nice to have a slugging corner outfielder for a change. The nightmare scenario would be paying Bay $16-17 million per season, then watching Holliday sign for $18-19 million. I wonder if people would continue saying the Alex Cora and Henry Blanco signings wouldn't hinder the Mets this offseason?

One bizarre aspect of the Bay offer is the revelation that the Mets think Bay is a better fielder than Holliday. That's almost certainly not true. Bay probably isn't as bad as UZR suggests the last couple seasons but I don't think an argument can be made that he's anything better than below average.

Mets Fever goes into great detail extolling the intangible virtues of Bengie Molina and endorses a two year, $12 million contract. This topic has been beaten into the ground but I say again: Bengie Molina is not worth anything more than a one year deal for very small money. Yes, he caught the 2002 World Champion Angels. That was a long time ago. I think Tim Lincecum would have won the last two Cy Youngs without Bengie. Three measures of catcher defense (Driveline Mechanics, Sean Smith, Baseball Prospectus) all rated Molina as below average in 2009. He's just not very good at anything except swinging at every pitch within a ten foot radius of home plate.

Unsurprisingly, the Mets' Rule 5 Draft activity left many people scratching their heads. Additionally, in a decent move, they signed minor league pitcher Clint Everts.

Joe Janish at Mets Today offers up a recap of the Winter Meetings' last day.

Josh Thole is leaving his Venezuela Winter League team after dominating over the last several weeks. He hopes to compete for a spot on the Opening Day Roster.

Rivers McCown fires up the Manny Ramirez what-if machine.

Around the NL East

Talking Chop reviews the Braves Winter Meetings activity.

FishStripes looks at the Marlins Rule 5 pick.

The Fightins' notes a weird compliment of Placido Polanco by Jim Leyland.

Ken Rosenthal says the Phillies and Angels are the leaders in the Roy Halladay sweepstakes.

Around MLB

The Royals released Mike Jacobs just before the Rule 5 Draft.

The Red Sox agreed to send Mike Lowell to the Rangers, with the Red Sox picking up some of his salary.

MLBTradeRumors provides a massive recap of the Winter Meetings.

Off topic - Jonah Keri writes a thoughtful post about pickup basketball.

Off topic 2 - that bastion of great journalism, the Daily News, produces another nonsensical sports column.

Winter Meetings Primer, 2009

Jesse — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 00:15:52 -0000

More photos » by Jennifer Simonson - AP

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Sure, it's a rumor-filled week that generally leads to nothing. But it's still a rumor-filled week, and to me that equals fun.

Twins Needs

Second Base
Third Base
Starting Pitcher
Bench Depth
Joe Mauer Extension

Between LEN III and Joe C., the Twins have been tied to a few names already this off-season: Mark DeRosa, Rich Harden, Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn and Orlando Hudson. There has been little speculation fueled by comments from the front office, although this has been commonplace during the Bill Smith era. Now entering his third Winter Meetings and in the best position to win since taking on the role of General Manager, it will be interesting to see if the rumors lead to anything concrete this season.

Obviously the Twins are still in the market for at least one infielder after picking up J.J. Hardy a few weeks ago, and the recent (and early) signings of Chone Figgins (four years, $36 million), Placido Polanco (three years, $18 million) and Marco Scutaro (two years, $12.5 million with an option for more) seem to set the market for starting infielders. Considering the combination of age and history I feel like all three teams overpaid, on either years or dollars or both.

Last season at this time there was a lot of talk surrounding Casey Blake and Garrett Atkins, and there's been nothing quite like that this season. This front office, and I've said it before, plays things notoriously close to the vest. Sure, it might not make for interesting discussion fodder, but it serves the best interests of the team.

A vast majority of the time all of the rumors and speculation lead to absolutely nothing during the week of the Winter Meetings. The common theme is for teams to read each other and, if possible, lay a foundation for things to happen over the following weeks. But that doesn't mean we won't hear some interesting tidbits over the next few days.

Names of Interest (after the break)

Adrian Beltre - With the Phillies signing Polanco, one of the Twins main competetors for the free agent third baseman may have just taken themselves out of the market. The biggest issue surrounding Beltre is Scott Boraas and his $10 million per year asking price. Even for his glove, I'm not sure Minnesota is going to fork out that kind of money for Beltre.

Mark DeRosa - He's also been rumored to be asking for nearly $10 million per season. Yikes.

Josh Johnson - The Marlins have said that Johnson won't be traded this off-season, but it's always hard to tell what's truth and what's posturing. If his name comes up this week, or at anytime over the next couple of months, I'll be listening.

Rich Harden - Along with Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard, it will be interesting to see how much teams are willing to gamble on these guys. Will the Twins maintain their interest in Harden?

Jed Lowrie - With the Red Sox the proud owners of a Scutaro, will he be on the block?

Carl Pavano - Will he accept arbitration?

Dan Uggla - The Marlins second baseman has been linked to about half of the teams in baseball at some point over the last couple of months, although no team has been connected more often than the Giants. His offense as a second baseman is superior, and in spite of his defense is still probably a three-win player.

In Closing

The Winter Meetings this season aren't set to be quite as interesting as they were the last couple of seasons, if only because the first thing on everyone's mind isn't really who else the front office can bring in but who can they sign to an extension. "General discussions" between the Twins and Mauer have begun, but nothing hard core so far, so stay tuned.

It's an exciting time of year. Be sure to keep checking back here for the latest rumblings and grumblings.

Poll

Make the call: what, if anything, will happen this week at the Winter Meetings for the Minnesota Twins?

They'll pull off some kind of a trade

79 votes

They'll lay foundations for discussions after the meetings

127 votes

They'll sign a free agent

57 votes

Nothing

137 votes

400 votes | Poll has closed

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

ESPN's Olney: Polanco Will Help Manufacture Runs

Ian Casselberry — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:25:06 -0000

Okay, I thought we were done with Placido Polanco posts, but I guess we'll have to get through the weekend before moving on. While writing about Polanco signing with the Phillies (Insider), Buster Olney said something that caused an eyebrow to raise:

The Phillies also believe that Polanco will help them do a better job of manufacturing runs at the top of their order. The team has, year after year, consistently ranked near the top of the major leagues in runs scored, but the front office has come to believe that the team is too reliant on home runs -- on big swings -- and has become prone to strikeouts and pop-ups in situations in which they might be well-served by a ground ball to the right side.

Say what now? Manufacturing runs? Helping a team prone to strikeouts and pop-ups, when a ground ball is needed? How exactly did that work for the Tigers this year?

That's not to say that Polanco won't be a good fit in the Phillies' batting order. He should be. And he was a great fit in the Tigers' lineup, providing something that no one else could. But Polanco didn't exactly help Detroit in the areas Olney mentioned. It's interesting to see how differently a team (and national writer) can view something.

One more Tigers note from Olney: According to what he hears from executives around baseball, Detroit isn't shopping Curtis Granderson around that aggressively. The inference seems to be that the Tigers either don't believe they'd get full value in any prospective trade, or that the backlash against trading such a popular player gave them second thoughts.

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies Sign Placido Polanco

raygu — Sat, 05 Dec 2009 18:00:15 -0000

by Duane Burleson - AP

20 days ago: FILE - In this Aug. 31, 2009, file phot, Detroit Tigers second baseman Placido Polanco throws to first after getting the force out on Tampa Bay Rays' Dioner Navarro (30) in the seventh inning of a baseball game in Detroit. Polanco has returned to the Philadelphia Phillies, agreeing to an $18 million, three-year contract on Thursday, Dec. 3, 2009. The 34-year-old free agent won Gold Gloves at second base for the Detroit Tigers in 2007 and this year but will shift to third base, which hasn't been his primary position since 2002. He replaces Pedro Feliz, who became a free agent. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson, File)

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Thursdays news that the Phillies signed Placido Polanco is a little confusing as most rumors out there were that they were interested in Adrian Beltre or Mark DeRosa. The Polanco signing came out of left field in my opinion.

Polanco is a career .300 hitterm but doesn't walk much or strike out much, and maybe that is why the Phillies signed him. He isn't a power hitter, judging by his career slugging percentage of .414, but he can hit and field very well.

This is what ESPN's Buster Olney had to say about the Polanco signing:

And the Phillies also believe that Polanco will help them do a better job of manufacturing runs at the top of their order. The team has, year after year, consistently ranked near the top of the major leagues in runs scored, but the front office has come to believe that the team is too reliant on home runs -- on big swings -- and has become prone to strikeouts and pop-ups in situations in which they might be well-served by a ground ball to the right side.

Shane Victorino was the primary No. 2 hitter for the Phillies last year and struck out 71 times, not a particularly high number. The Phillies believe that if Polanco bats second, behind Jimmy Rollins, this will give Rollins a better chance to run after reaching base, and that Charlie Manuel will have more options at his disposal, given that Polanco is one of the best hit-and-run men in the sport. Victorino may well drop down in the lineup, to the No. 7 spot.

Quite informative piece there as this tells me that Rollins and Victorino could be running more in 2010...well, definitely Rollins. But with Victorino batting 7th, he could also run more than last year, but he won't be scoring as many runs as he would hitting in front of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth.

Then again, the Phillies could deal Victorino and promote AAA outfielder Michael Taylor to bat 7th, which would be a perfect spot in the lineup for a young power hitter.

Poll

Will Jimmy Rollins steal more bases in 2010?

Yes, as along as he can get on base more.

44 votes

No, his OBP was pitiful in 2009.

20 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed

Well, Those Latino Players Look So Similar

Ian Casselberry — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 18:00:30 -0000

Little bit of an oopsie at ESPN.com's SportsCenter blog yesterday, with their "developing story" report of Placido Polanco signing with the Philadelphia Phillies. Just in case the problem is fixed by the time you click on that link, we captured a screen shot for posterity.

Hey, it happens to the best of us, right? At least they got the team right. I mean, that could've been a picture of, like, Marco Scutaro.

Besides, Polanco and Magglio Ordonez look so similar. Especially when they have their batting helmets on, so you can't distinguish big head from curly locks. I'm sure the two are mistaken for each other all the time.

Hopefully, the Phillies realize they got Polanco, not Ordonez. I have a feeling, however, that they do.

MLB Trade Rumors: Phillies Shopping Shane Victorino??

raygu — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 17:30:13 -0000

More photos » by Julie Jacobson - ASSOCIATED PRESS

about 1 month ago: Philadelphia Phillies' Shane Victorino, right, is congratulated by Jimmy Rollins after scoring on a two run RBI single by Raul Ibanez during the eighth inning of Game 1 of the Major League Baseball World Series against the New York Yankees Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2009, in New York. (AP Photo/Julie Jacobson)

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I was trading emails with my brother and a few friends yesterday, and one of my friends who listens to alot of Philadelphia talk radio said he heard that the Phillies may be quietly shopping Shane Victorino. I was shocked to hear that one, and none of the big rumors guys have yet to throw that one out there. It will be interesting to see if the Phillies would actually mess with a lineup that went to the World Series two years in a row.

So, why would the Phillies want to deal Victorino? I think there are several reasons. One is they have Michael Taylor and Domonic Brown in AAA and AA respectively, who are probably amongst the top 20-25 prospects in the game right now. Secondly, if the Phillies are serious about signing Cliff Lee long-term, then they need to move some salary to afford Lee. Victorino is up for arbitration again this year, after making $3+ million last year. That number could double in 2010 and beyond.

Factor in that the Phillies have two more years of Raul Ibanez and the $20 million left on his contract, and Jayson Werth is a free agent at the end of the 2010 season, and the Phillies have some decisions to make with their outfielders. The contracts that Ryan Howard ($19 million in 2010), Chase Utley ($15 million in 2010), Jimmy Rollins ($7.5 million in 2010) and recently signed Placido Polanco (~$6 million in 2010), the Phillies infield is making almost $48 million in 2010. Add in what Cole Hamel, Brad Lidge, Cliff Lee, Jamey Moyer and others are making, and the Phillies may want to consider dealing some salary where they have depth in the minors.

Who could have interest in Victorino? Well, the Toronto Blue Jays would certainly be interested in him if the Phillies are serious about dealing for ace starter Roy Halladay. Other teams would include the Braves, Marlins and Mets who all need an outfielder, but I am sure the Phillies wouldn't deal Victorino within their own division. The Cardinals would jump at the chance to trade for Victorino and make him their leadoff hitter. He could play right field with Ryan Ludwick moving over to left field. A package of pitching prospects could entice the Phillies. The Cubs are also looking for a centerfielder. Victorino could also lead off for the Cubs.

Poll

Should the Phillies deal Shane Victorino to make room for Michael Taylor or Domonic Brown?

Yes, Brown and Taylor are either ready or very close to being major league ready.

390 votes

No, they should deal Werth, and they could get more in return for him than Victorino.

265 votes

655 votes | Poll has closed