SB Nation - Justin Verlander

2009 SBNation Awards: Cy Young Award

Al — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 14:00:29 -0000

by Jeff Chiu - AP

Someday, Tim Lincecum will look older than 15. For now, he has to settle for Cy Young Awards.

For the Cy Young Award, Mike & I agreed on our ballots right down the line -- and neither of us voted for the SBN winner, Tim Lincecum, who got 18 first-place votes. Carpenter and Wainwright appeared to split the Cardinal vote down the middle, so neither could win. No Cubs received any votes; none was expected to.

The AL voting was more predictable; you might only be surprised by the order of the runners-up.

BCB ballots:

Al: 1) Carpenter 2) Lincecum 3) Wainwright   
Mike: 1) Carpenter 2) Lincecum 3) Wainwright

National League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Tim Lincecum	San Francisco Giants	18	13	-	129
2	Chris Carpenter	St. Louis Cardinals	9	4	7	64
3	Adam Wainwright	St. Louis Cardinals	4	4	10	42
4	Javier Vazquez	Atlanta Braves	-	5	7	22
5	Dan Haren	Arizona Diamondbacks	-	3	4	13
6	Ubaldo Jimenez	Colorado Rockies	-	1	1	4
7	Cliff Lee	Philadelphia Phillies	-	-	1	1
8	Jair Jurrjens	Atlanta Braves	-	-	1	1

American League

Rk	Player	Team	1st	2nd	3rd	Pts
1	Zack Greinke	Kansas City Royals	28	1	-	143
2	Felix Hernandez	Seattle Mariners	-	17	6	57
3	Justin Verlander	Detroit Tigers	-	8	9	33
4	Roy Halladay	Toronto Blue Jays	1	2	11	22
5	CC Sabathia	New York Yankees	-	1	2	5
6	Jon Lester	Boston Red Sox	-	-	1	1

Better Luck Next Year, Clayton

Eric Stephen — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 06:12:44 -0000

More photos » by David J. Phillip - AP

Clayton Kershaw had a very good season in 2009, even if he didn't have the wins to show for it.

Browse more photos »

Clayton Kershaw had a lot riding on his shoulders in 2009. From the moment he was drafted seventh overall in 2006, the highest pick by the Dodgers in 13 years, the expectations were great for the golden left arm of the former high school teammate of Matthew Stafford in Highland Park, Texas. Over on Dodger Thoughts, nobody wanted to jinx anything, so we began calling him The Minotaur, a mythical creature not to be believed until we saw him with our own eyes. He made it to the big leagues in 2008, and was basically a league average starter as a 20-year old, a remarkable achievement. Expectations were understandably quite high for Kershaw entering 2009.

The 21-year old did not disappoint. He put up an adjusted earned run average of 149, nearly 50% better than league average. Of the 78 starting pitchers in baseball with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, here is where Kershaw ranked:

ERA	2.79	8th
ERA+	149	8th
FIP	3.06	7th
x-FIP	3.94	26th
H/9	6.26	1st
HR/9	0.37	2nd
K/9	9.74	7th

It's hard to get much better than that. Yet, when we glance over a little to the left on the back of his baseball card, we will see his win-loss record at a pedestrian 8-8. Why is that? One big reason was his high walk totals, leading to short outings:

BB/9	4.79	77th
IP/start	5.63	75th

Over his last 11 starts, Kershaw put up a 2.60 ERA while striking out 10.77 batters per nine innings, yet had no wins to show for it. However, it wasn't all Kershaw's fault. At Baseball Prospectus, using play-by-play data, they track a couple of stats to help determine a pitcher's expected win-loss record:

E(W) - Expected Wins: "Expected win record for the pitcher, based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically (this differs from how it was computed, which was a more complicated, theoretical calculation)."
SNW - Support-Neutral Wins: "the pitcher's expected number of wins assuming he had league-average support."

Here are Kershaw's expected records per Baseball Prospectus:

E(W)	E(L)	SNW	SNL
13.1	6.4	18.0	12.0

Instead of 18-12, the Dodgers went 14-16 in Kershaw's 30 starts. Looking back, Kershaw seemed to have his worst luck when pitching his best. Kershaw had four of the best five starts by a Dodger in 2009, as measured by game score. His top three starts produced zero wins:

Date	Opp	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	GmScr
Apr 15	SF	7.0	1	1	1	1	13	83
Aug 8	Atl	7.0	2	0	0	1	10	82
July 29	StL	8.0	4	0	0	2	7	79

Starting pitchers had a game score of 79 or better in 159 games this season, or 3.3% of all games. Those pitchers were 140-3 in those games, with just 16 no-decisions. Kershaw had three of those no-decisions. No other pitcher in baseball had more than one.

If we lower the threshold to a game score of 70 or better -- which accounts for the top 11.4% of all MLB starts in 2009 -- Kershaw had 10 of those games, the same number as CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander. Only four pitchers had more starts with a game score of 70 or higher. Here are Kershaw's numbers in those 10 starts:

IP	H	R	BB/9	K/9	ERA	FIP	BA/OBP/SLG	W-L	No-Dec
69.0	28	4	2.87	10.43	0.52	2.16	.125/.206/.174	4-0	6

Those six no-decisions led baseball. Tim Lincecum was second, with four. The point is that Kershaw didn't have a relatively low win total just because he wasn't able to pitch deep into games. He pitched great often enough, but just didn't get rewarded as much as he should have.

Here's hoping for better luck next year, kid.

Fantasy Baseball: Looking at K/9 and GB%

raygu — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 14:35:11 -0000

Coming into my 2009 drafts, I found a very interesting article over at www.thebaseballanalysts.com which categorized pitchers by their K/9 and GB ratios. The importance of this for roto/fantasy owners is knowing how your pitchers get guys out. Pitchers with high K/9 and high GB ratios usually provide owners with very good win, ERA and WHIP stats, and they are the ones to target come draft day. The reason is they are getting guys out via the strikeout and inducing a high percentage of ground balls which more often than not results in an out. And ground balls don't leave the ballpark.

With that said, I provide you with the top 25 K/9 pitchers in 2009 with their corresponding GB ratios, along with some other advanced pitching stats, courtesy of www.fangraphs.com, after the jump:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	GB%	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	47.50%	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	36.00%	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	47.70%	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41
Yovani Gallardo	9.89	4.56	2.17	45.00%	1.02	0.223	1.31	0.288	77.90%	3.73
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	41.70%	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87
Jonathan Sanchez	9.75	4.85	2.01	40.70%	1.05	0.227	1.37	0.29	72.60%	4.24
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	39.40%	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	40.00%	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	38.30%	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	44.70%	0.97	0.248	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38
Max Scherzer	9.19	3.33	2.76	41.80%	1.06	0.257	1.34	0.323	68.70%	4.12
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	42.90%	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14
A.J. Burnett	8.48	4.22	2.01	42.80%	1.09	0.248	1.4	0.302	75.90%	4.04
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	44.90%	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	47.20%	1.06	0.249	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86
Matt Garza	8.38	3.5	2.39	39.70%	1.11	0.236	1.26	0.284	75.00%	3.95
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	50.30%	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23
Chad Billingsley	8.21	3.94	2.08	45.30%	0.78	0.238	1.32	0.294	71.00%	4.03
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	50.70%	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	53.40%	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	52.50%	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	44.70%	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77
Johan Santana	7.88	2.48	3.17	35.70%	1.08	0.249	1.21	0.296	78.00%	3.13
Aaron Harang	7.87	2.38	3.3	34.90%	1.33	0.289	1.41	0.339	75.70%	4.21
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	50.20%	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79

A couple takeaways from this analysis for me is that Jonathan Sanchez may be due for a breakout year in 2010 if he can continue pitching like he did in the seond half of 2009.

Another takeaway is I would be very afraid of drafting Johan_Santana in 2010 because you will have to spend a high draft pick or $25+ in roto leagues for a guy whose peripheral stats are taking a turn for the worse. His K/9 have decreased in each of the last 2 years, and his BB/9 and HR/9 have increased in the last 2 years.

A couple of Colorado Rockie pitchers broke out in 2009, and I am not sure we have seen the best of Ubaldo_Jimenez and Jorge De La Rosa yet. Both strikeout more than 8 batters per 9 innings, and induce ground balls at a pretty high rate in the case for Jiminez, and JDLR's GB ratio isn't that bad either. If they can increase their LOB% in 2010, they will make fantasy owners real happy.

Finally, I have already wrote about Ricky Nolasco, so I will move onto another pitcher whose peripherals scream that he could come cheap in 2010 drafts. That name is Max Scherzer, and he is an intriguing name, as he struck out more than 9 batters per 9 innings, and induced ground balls at a 42% clip in 2009. His LOB% was pretty low in 2009, so I expect a very solid season from Scherzer in 2010.

Poll

Who will get drafted first in 2010: Jonathan Sanchez or Max Scherzer?

Scherzer

57 votes

Sanchez

12 votes

69 votes | Poll has closed

Purple Row Awards: AL Most Valuable Player

Poseidon's Fist — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 18:00:22 -0000

by Mark Avery - AP

The man swinging this bat was Purple Row's unanimous MVP

View full size photo »

Three of the six Purple Row Awards garnered a unanimous winner, and this - the AL MVP - is the second. Good thing too, because after the season this fellow had, I would ban the entire staff if the votes turned up any differently.

I always figured a Triple Crown winner would yield a unanimous MVP. And so it makes sense...what, there was no Triple Crown winner? Okay, so Yaz is still the latest to win the traditional Triple Crown. However...winning the slash stat Triple Crown is more impressive to me anyway, and our winner not only did so, but he trounced the American League competition in all three categories.

Below is a table of those slash stats showing Purple Row's chosen MVP against his three closest followers (who should be noted are embodied by different hitters in all three stats). To appease the SABR crowd as well, I have included Runs Above Replacement and wOBA, in which our golden boy proves to be a god among men.

	Avg	OBP	SLG	RAR	wOBA
PR AL MVP	.365	.444	.587	56.0	.438
AL #2	.352	.413	.569	43.8	.413
AL #3	.334	.406	.565	40.9	.408
AL #4	.324	.405	.562	40.2	.405

It is abundantly clear one slugger outclassed the rest of the league, leaving other incredible talents in the dust. He hit .417 in the playoffs and was involved in arguably the most talked about play in the ALDS. He was one of five AL hitters to walk more than he struck out. Seriously, is there any way our choice for MVP could be any more impressive?

....

Well...he could be a catcher...

1. Joe Mauer

#7 / Catcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-5

Weight: 225

Bats: L

Throws: R

Born: Apr 19, 1983

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Joe Mauer	138	523	94	191	30	1	28	96	76	63	4	1	.365	.444	.587

The three-time batting champion really should be (though he might not be) the unanimous choice for the actual award. Check his Baseball-Reference page and marvel at all the stats he finished first. For a 26-year-old catcher (coming off a Gold Glove year) to accomplish that in a league with a DH while calling a strong pitcher's park home...I'm speechless. Even though he missed all of April, his fantastic year led Dave Cameron to write "This very well could go down as the best season any catcher has ever had." I can't argue with that.

****

The staff made up for their consensus number one by submitting very different ballots 2 though 5, including six different second place votes. As a staff, we gave in so much to the East Coast Bias that we managed to fit five AL East hitters into the final four slots:

2. Mark Teixeira

#25 / First Base / New York Yankees

Height: 6-3

Weight: 220

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: Apr 11, 1980

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Mark Teixeira	156	609	103	178	43	3	39	122	81	114	2	0	.292	.383	.565

Teixeira was the only other player who appeared on all six ballots. He actually managed to finish with 0.1 more runs created (wRC on Fangraphs) than Mauer for first in the American League, though Mauer still leads in B-R's calculations. He is clearly the best hitter on MLB's best team, as he led the American League in both home runs and RBI.

t-3. Kevin Youkilis

#20 / Third Base / Boston Red Sox

Height: 6-1

Weight: 220

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Mar 15, 1979

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Kevin Youkilis	136	491	99	150	36	1	27	94	77	125	7	2	.305	.413	.548

Youk was second in the AL in OBP, fifth in slugging and second in wOBA, trailing only Mauer. He gave Terry Francona flexibility by providing plus defense at both first and third combined with much needed production in the middle of the order to counteract the MIA bat of Big Papi.

t-3. Evan Longoria

#3 / Third Base / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 6-2

Weight: 210

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 07, 1985

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Evan Longoria	157	584	100	164	44	0	33	113	72	140	9	0	.281	.364	.526

I personally don't think Longoria was the best hitter on his own team, though he certainly is an elite hitter. He finished fourth in the AL in RBI, eighth in HR and first in GIDP. The former Dirtbag did manage to finish 4th in the league in WAR, greatly due to his defense: he saved more runs (RAR) than any full-time infielder in the majors.

t-5. Ben Zobrist

#18 / Second Base / Tampa Bay Rays

Height: 6-3

Weight: 200

Bats: B

Throws: R

Born: May 26, 1981

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Ben Zobrist	152	501	91	149	28	7	27	91	91	104	17	6	.297	.405	.543

Zobrist really? Don't laugh. Unless it's about his name or mug shot. Zobrist finished the season with 8.5 WAR - more than Mauer, more than Utley, more than even Pujols, more than any MLB player in 2009. How? He played seven defensive positions and was above average at nearly all. UZR loved Zobrist more than it hated Dexter Fowler, but given his small sample sizes all over the place, the legitimacy of those numbers (and thusly his WAR) could certainly be questioned. But you can't question his .405 wOBA, which was good for third in the AL. Hitting at that level while fielding well at seven positions spells value to me.

t-5. Derek Jeter

#2 / Short Stop / New York Yankees

Height: 6-3

Weight: 195

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jun 26, 1974

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Derek Jeter	153	634	107	212	27	1	18	66	72	90	30	5	.334	.406	.465

Derek Jeter has graded out as a below average defensive shortstop for years, yet this season he has a very solid UZR, helping him to the third best WAR in the AL. He also finished fourth in runs created, third in OBP and ninth in wOBA and is the captain of the best regular season team in the majors.

Here's your ammunition to personally refute any individual writer:

AL MVP	RMN	PF	togb	Russ	Silverblood	Jabbs
1	Joe Mauer	Joe Mauer	Joe Mauer	Joe Mauer	Joe Mauer	Joe Mauer
2	Kevin Youkilis	Ben Zobrist	Kendry Morales	Evan Longoria	Mark Teixeira	Zach Greinke
3	Mark Teixeira	Mark Teixeira	Mark Teixeira	Derek Jeter	Ichiro	Evan Longoria
4	Ben Zobrist	Kevin Youkilis	Derek Jeter	Mark Teixeira	Kevin Youkilis	Mark Teixeira
5	Miguel Cabrera	Derek Jeter	Miguel Cabrera	Miguel Cabrera	Evan Longoria	Justin Verlander

The ballots were weighted on a 50-40-30-20-10 scale, yielding the following total rankings:

1 - Joe Mauer (300)
2 - Mark Teixeira (170)
3 - Kevin Youkilis (80)
3 - Evan Longoria (80)
5 - Ben Zobrist (60)
5 - Derek Jeter (60)
7 - Kendry Morales (40)
7 - Zach Greinke (40)
9 - Miguel Cabrera (30)
9 - Ichiro (30)
11 - Justin Verlander (10)

Tomorrow, Silverblood will wrap up the Purple Row Awards series by revealing our controversial choice for the National League MVP.

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 FIP Leaders

raygu — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:00:23 -0000

by Gregory Smith - AP

Will Ricky Nolasco be undervalued in 2010?

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I know what you are asking-what the heck is FIP? According to The Hardball Times site, FIP is Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded.

With that explained, I give you the 2009 FIP leaders among starting pitchers courtesy of www.fangraphs.com:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	0.232	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	0.209	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	0.226	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77
Chris Carpenter	6.73	1.78	3.79	0.33	0.223	1.01	0.272	79.50%	2.24	2.78
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	0.244	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8
Josh Johnson	8.22	2.5	3.29	0.6	0.238	1.16	0.299	74.90%	3.23	3.06
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	0.258	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06
Clayton Kershaw	9.74	4.79	2.03	0.37	0.198	1.23	0.274	77.50%	2.79	3.08
Felix Hernandez	8.18	2.68	3.06	0.57	0.229	1.14	0.289	76.70%	2.49	3.09
Cliff Lee	7.03	1.67	4.21	0.66	0.273	1.24	0.326	76.20%	3.22	3.11
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	0.247	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	0.245	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	0.229	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23
Joel Pineiro	4.42	1.14	3.89	0.46	0.265	1.14	0.293	66.90%	3.49	3.27
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	0.265	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35
Ubaldo Jimenez	8.17	3.51	2.33	0.54	0.229	1.23	0.29	73.50%	3.47	3.36
CC Sabathia	7.71	2.62	2.94	0.7	0.233	1.15	0.284	71.40%	3.37	3.39
Wandy Rodriguez	8.45	2.76	3.06	0.92	0.249	1.24	0.306	79.40%	3.02	3.54
Carlos Zambrano	8.08	4.15	1.95	0.53	0.245	1.38	0.308	71.90%	3.77	3.61

One guy that stands out for me is Ricky Nolasco and his 5.06 ERA. Based on his outstanding peripherals, his FIP-3.35 is almost 2 runs lower than his ERA of 5.06. He will be someone to target on the cheap in 2010. His LOB% of 61%, or runners stranded, is extremely low and should increase in 2010, which will lower his ERA.

Joel Pineiro is another guy that stands out only for his low LOB% of 66.9%. His FIP wasn't much lower than his ERA, so I have to explain that is due to how low WHIP of 1.14.

Poll

Will Ricky Nolasco be undervalued in 2010?

Yes, his FIP and peripherals are still solid.

45 votes

No, he gives up too many hits with RISP.

6 votes

51 votes | Poll has closed

Purple Row Awards: American League Cy Young Award

RockiesMagicNumber — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 17:14:34 -0000

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As we continue our quest to award the big trophies to the deserving players, our eyes turn away from home and to the American League, where pitchers play half of a game and are given back rubs in between innings.

The writers on the staff had very little problem with finding a winner, as this particular pitcher received a unanimous vote from the Purple Row Brass.

Carl Pavano

#48 / Pitcher / Minnesota Twins

Height: 6-5

Weight: 240

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Jan 08, 1976

HA! Nah, I'm joking with you. Seriously, the winner is the following pitcher:

1st Place - Zack Greinke

#23 / Pitcher / Kansas City Royals

Height: 6-2

Weight: 190

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Oct 21, 1983

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Zack Greinke	16-8	33	33	6	3	0	0	229.1	195	64	55	11	51	242	2.16	1.07

Zack Greinke. What comes to your mind when you think about Zack Greinke? Ask me this a couple of years ago, and the first thing that comes to my mind is "man, what a shame. So much sheer talent and the kid can't keep his head on his shoulders. What a shame, I'd kill to have a guy who could throw a 95 mph sinker."

I've seen Greinke pitch once. May 20, 2007, Greinke pitched 4 outs of relief against Colorado, striking out 2, allowing no hits and walking nobody. Nothing terribly special, but it was a sign that he might be ready to pitch as a major leaguer again.

While 2007 and 2008 definitely showed signs of improvement for young Greinke, 2009 proved to be something nearly otherworldly.

Greinke posted a 2.16 ERA over 229 1/3 innings in the 2009 campaign. He struck out 242 batters, walked only 51, and never had to intentionally walk ANYONE.

Thanks to a pitiful Royals team this season, his record was only 16-8. He made 26 Quality Starts (6.0IP or more, 3.0ER or less), out of 33 starts. He struck out 8 or more batters in 16 starts. 9 or more in 9 starts, 10 or more in 5 starts, including 1 game where he punched out 15. He pitched 5 games in which he allowed zero runs, 3 of which being complete games.

Greinke pitched 29 innings in 2009 before allowing a single run. He pitched 75 innings before his ERA cracked 1. He pitched 121 1/3 innings before it passed 2.

But the real story of Zack Greinke is in the half-season splits.

First half Greinke: 10-5, 2.12 ERA, 6.14 K/BB.

Second half Greinke: 6-3, 2.21 ERA, 3.77 K/BB.

Ok I'm kidding about that. You can see that his SHEER DOMINANCE dropped off a bit as the halves changed, but he was still pretty dynamite.

For the SABR crowd, Greinke's season line looks like this: 2.16 ERA(1^st), 2.33 FIP (1^st), 2.35 tRA (1^st), 3.48 tRA* (1^st), 4.75 K/BB (2^nd to Halladay), 9.50 K/9 (3^rd behind Verlander and Lester), 6.07 WPA (1^st), 61.98 RE24 (1^st - next highest was 44.85, Halladay).

I don't see how there's any other option than Greinke, personally. I'm thrilled to see a troubled young guy find his stride, and really fill out the dominance the Royals saw in him when they drafted him.

Greinke's 4-year, $38M extension may be the only smart decision Dayton Moore has made in the past few years.

Our runners up:

2nd Place - Justin Verlander

#35 / Pitcher / Detroit Tigers

Height: 6-5

Weight: 200

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Feb 20, 1983

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Justin Verlander	19-9	35	35	3	1	0	0	240.0	219	99	92	20	63	269	3.45	1.17

3rd Place - Felix Hernandez

#34 / Pitcher / Seattle Mariners

Height: 6-3

Weight: 225

Bats: R

Throws: R

Born: Apr 08, 1986

	W-L	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	BS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2009 - Felix Hernandez	19-5	34	34	2	1	0	0	238.2	200	81	66	15	71	217	2.49	1.14

Here is how the voting broke down:

AL Cy	RMN	PF	togb	Russ	Silver	Jabbs
1	Zack Greinke	Zack Greinke	Zack Greinke	Zack Greinke	Zack Greinke	Zack Greinke
2	Justin Verlander	Felix Hernandez	CC Sabathia	Felix Hernandez	Felix Hernandez	Justin Verlander
3	Roy Halladay	Justin Verlander	Justin Verlander	Justin Verlander	Roy Halladay	Felix Hernandez

If I could've I would've given 3rd place to both Halladay and King Felix. That kid is also bomb, and will be a Cy Young winner before you know it.

Tomorrow, Jabberwocky will be telling us about who won the NL Cy Young award, why he did, and why nobody can take away the way he wears his hat.

Afternoon Prowl: Metrodome Horror, Easy Pick Twins, Porcello's Fastball, and the Cabrera Dilemma

Ian Casselberry — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 18:20:25 -0000

Joe Posnanski compares the Metrodome to the horror film slasher that just won't die. And even those who say they love the place don't really love it. Posnanski also suspects that a mutual dislike of the 'Dome among Twins fans has become a source of pride.

(via Baseball Musings)

Rob Neyer thinks the Twins are an easy pick today and lists five reasons why. (Does Kurt know about this, now that Mack Avenue Tigers shares a virtual office with Neyer in "SweetSpot" land)?

Speaking of Mr. Mensching, he and the SweetSpot network's Twins blogger collaborated on some Q&A. You can read Nick Nelson's thoughts on the Twins at MAT, and check out Kurt's responses to five Tigers-related questions at Nick's Twins Blog.

ESPN's Buster Olney talked to a scout who says Rick Porcello's fastball will tell us how he's handling the pressure today. If he's controlling that fastball, Kid Rick is playing it cool. If he's missing the strike zone with it, his emotions probably aren't in check. [Insider]

I was one of the guests on the This Week in Detroit Tigers Baseball podcast over the weekend, and host Joe Dexter thinks this whole thing is my fault after I made a joke two weeks ago about the Tigers not being done with the Metrodome. (Yeah - sorry about that.) Of course, we talk plenty about the tiebreaker between the Twins and Tigers.

Curtis Granderson wants to win a World Series championship for you, Detroit! As Grandy writes for Big League Stew, playing meaningful baseball has made this year fun.

We know how the Tigers got to today's game, but how did the Twins get to this position? Aaron Gleeman looks back at how Minnesota ignited after season-ending injuries to Justin Morneau and Joe Crede.

If you want to hear two guys debate whether or not Cabrera should have been suspended for today, give a listen to today's On the DL podcast. (If you just want to get to the Cabrera talk, forward to the 15:10 mark.)

Nick Tarnowski agrees with Kevin Kaduk that the Tigers should sit him down, making the comparison that if this happened in Philadelphia, Phillies fans would go nuts. Dan Levy, however, believes that suspending Cabrera now would be placating the media. If the Tigers were going to take action, they should've done it on Saturday. Nick and Dan also make predictions on today's game.

Also feeling strongly that Cabrera should be benched for today is Mike McClary of The Daily Fungo. In Mike's opinion, Cabrera shouldn't be allowed to possibly redeem himself for his actions by playing today. Sitting him down could also lay the groundwork for Jim Leyland wielding proper authority over his team next season.

Danny Knobler falls on his sword for picking Cabrera as his AL MVP before the season. Don't be too hard on yourself, Danny. No one else knew it would turn out like this either.

Talking to Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan, Justin Verlander reveals how maturity and preparation helped him elevate his game and rebound from last year's disappointing performance. One telling quote: "I guess I’m not able to flip the switch like I thought I could."

Jon Heyman ranks his 30 best moves of the year from this past season. Two of the Tigers' transactions are on the list. And you may be surprised at where one of them is ranked.

Dan Bickley of the Arizona Republic thinks Kirk Gibson's handling of young players such as Justin Upton, along with the fans who criticize him, make him excellent future manager material.

(via The Daily Fungo on Twitter)

Washington Nationals' '09 #1 Overall Pick Stephen Strasburg's Florida Instructional League Debut On ESPN.

Ed Chigliak — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 17:33:23 -0000

More photos » by Luis Alvarez - AP

2 months ago: Washington Nationals pitcher Stephen Strasburg, the No. 1 overall draft pick, warms-up before a baseball game against the Florida Marlins, Saturday, Sept. 5, 2009, in Washington. (AP Photo/Luis M. Alvarez)

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Stephen Strasburg's professional debut took place this afternoon in a Florida Instructional League outing against the Detroit Tigers' prospects. Strasburg took the mound just after 1:00 pm EST. The Nationals' '09 #1 pick was wearing Washington's navy blue Spring Training jerseys with the red curly-W cap and the blue socks pulled high. The 21-year-old, 6'2'', right-hander struck out the first batter he faced with a two-strike heater that froze the Tigers' hitter. ESPN didn't bother with the names of Detroit's players or any graphics showing the count, but it was clear from the late swings and foul balls that Strasburg was already dialing it up. The second batter Strasburg faced flew out to left field. The third Tiger to come up got a good look at Strasburg's breaking ball, and he went down chasing for a quick 1-2-3 frame.

Strasburg completed two innings on the mound, but the Nationals' starter gave up a few hits and a run the second time around, though ESPN was talking football and then in commercials when he was throwing. ESPN Analyst and former GM Steve Phillips remarked that Strasburg would have to "clean up" his delivery, but said no one had hit the right-hander particularly hard, and Mr. Phillips then went on to compare Strasburg to one of Detroit's own starters, Justin Verlander and declare Strasburg's pro debut a success...

Updates when more info is available...

Bring on Game 163: Tigers 5, White Sox 3

Ian Casselberry — Mon, 05 Oct 2009 02:15:30 -0000

More photos » by Carlos Osorio - AP

Ryan Raburn acknowledges the Comerica Park crowd after hitting his second home run of the game Sunday in a must-win game for the Detroit Tigers.

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Saturday morning, I was out for breakfast with my mother. Naturally, the Tigers came up in conversation. ("You're still doing that?" - Just kidding; she didn't say that. Not out loud, anyway.)

Eventually, I said that the Tigers were still in good shape because Justin Verlander was pitching on Sunday.

"Is he really that good?" Mom asked.

Yes, Mom, he's that good.

This is why teams want that one great starting pitcher, that ace that can carry you to heights you might not otherwise reach. This is why Jim Leyland saved Verlander for today, in case the Tigers absolutely needed a win to extend their season. And this is why the Detroit Tigers live to play at least one more game.

Verlander dominated the White Sox for seven innings, allowing no runs and just two hits. And just to make sure that effort stood up, the Tigers' lineup scored five runs, thanks largely to Ryan Raburn and Magglio Ordonez. Verlander tired out in the eighth inning, giving up four straight hits that resulted in three White Sox runs. That made the crowd at Comerica Park (and any other Tigers fans watching on TV, obviously) squirm in their seats with dread.

But Fernando Rodney took over to get the last out of the eighth, and retired the side in order in the ninth to close out the ballgame and ensure a one-game tiebreaker on Tuesday in Minneapolis. (The Tigers had a chance to win the division outright, but the Twins crushed the Royals, 13-4, to stay tied for first in the AL Central.)

And so one more game is needed to decide this division. Just when the Tigers (and their fans) thought they'd never have to see the Metrodome, again they must enter that teflon-coated field of screams. But how many demons could be conquered, and how many painful memories erased, if they can win there on Tuesday?

Roar:

Besides Verlander's turn in the rotation coming up, perhaps the second most fortunate development of Sunday's game for the Tigers is that they faced a left-handed pitcher. With John Danks getting the start for the White Sox, Raburn was in the lineup. And when he gets a few at-bats in a game this season, he tends to do something. Sunday was no exception.

Raburn went 3-for-4, with two home runs, three RBIs, and three runs scored. For a team that scored one run in its past two games, he provided a much needed jolt. And perhaps Leyland has finally realized that Raburn gives them the best chance to win, announcing after the game that he'll get the start on Tuesday against Scott Baker.

Ordonez also continued being the Tigers' most consistent bat with a 4-for-4 day. He's now on a 12-game hitting streak, during which he's batted ~~18-for-40~~ 22-for-44. (Thanks for the correction in the comments.)

Purr:

A closer's job changes a bit in the postseason. No pitching strictly in the ninth inning. If more than three outs are needed to finish off a playoff game, a closer has to extend himself. Rodney's track record hasn't been great when he's asked to pitch in situations other than what a closer is accustomed to.

But the Tigers needed someone to finish off the eighth inning on Sunday, and Leyland figured he might as well put his best guy in there. Their season was on the line, after all. And he'll likely have to do it again if the Tigers make the playoffs. Consider also that Rodney was working a day game after a night game in which he threw 24 pitches.

Comment of the Day:

Okay, forget my statements about Raburn being 0-for-8 against Danks with 5 Ks

by SabreRoseTiger

Tigers Win! Game 162 Afterglow

Ian Casselberry — Sun, 04 Oct 2009 19:45:06 -0000

More photos » by Carlos Osorio - AP

Magglio Ordonez continued his hot hitting on Sunday, batting 4-for-4 with a solo homer on a day the Detroit Tigers needed every run they could get.

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At the very least, there will be bonus baseball Tuesday evening at the Metrodome.

The Detroit Tigers won the game they had to win, with Justin Verlander pitching the game his team desperately needed. For seven innings, he allowed only two hits and no runs.

And somebody in the Detroit dugout brought his bat to the ballpark today. Namely, Ryan Raburn, who blasted two home runs as part of a 3-for-4 day. Magglio Ordonez was perfect at the plate, batting 4-for-4, highlighted by a solo homer.

Tigers beat the White Sox, 5-3! Full recap to come. But for now, enjoy the afterglow.

(And check in on that Twins-Royals game, though Minnesota currently leads 7-1.)