SB Nation - Jason Grilli

Afternoon Prowl: No Pursuit of J.J. Putz, Scott Sizemore's Leg, and Jason Grilli Returns

Ian Casselberry — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 21:00:21 -0000

Are the Tigers not interested in reliever J.J. Putz, or might they be waiting until next week's Winter Meetings to talk to him? If so, Detroit might find a few other teams ahead of them in line. ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick reported that the Phillies, Astros, Pirates, and Rangers have each checked in on Putz.

Jason Beck confirmed that the Tigers haven't had any discussions with Putz as of this week.

Now that Placido Polanco has moved on, will his successor at second base be ready for next season? Scott Sizemore spoke with Lynn Henning, saying that his broken leg appears to be "coming along pretty good." Sizemore is scheduled to meet with doctors today, but his progress seems to indicate that he'll be ready for Spring Training.

Talking to the Freep's George Sipple, Sizemore did express some concern that he's lost time in the weight room due to the injury.

At Motor City Bengals, Joe Dexter wonders if Billy Wagner's $7 million deal with the Braves has now priced Brandon Lyon and Fernando Rodney out of the Tigers' budget. If so, will Detroit be able to sign anyone capable of being their closer? Or will they have to give the job to one of the in-house candidates? (Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry, etc.)

Speaking of Zumaya, his rehab is just about completed, according to Beck. With that, Zumaya can begin focusing on strength and conditioning. Apparently, that gives him a head start over the last couple of offseasons, where he was still rehabbing before Spring Training.

The Cleveland Indians' bullpen will have a familiar face next season, as Jason Grilli returns to the AL Central. Grilli apparently signed last week, but the official announcement was made yesterday. He agreed to a minor league deal, with a chance to win a job in Spring Training. Grilli chose the Indians over six other teams that had expressed interest.

River Avenue Blues wants the Yankees to steer of Lyon for their bullpen, believing he would be a "fringe reliever" in the AL East due to a low strikeout rate and "unsustainably low" BABIP. Lyon's desire for a multi-year deal also raises eyebrows, considering the Yankees' past misfortunes with relievers such as Kyle Farnsworth.

(via MLB Trade Rumors)

Did we know that the Tigers had been interested in Mike Cameron? Both Beck and Jon Heyman have mentioned that Detroit had pursued him "last summer" as a centerfield option versus left-handed pitching. (I'm assuming that means Summer 2009, not 2008.) I'm pretty sure I was here, and don't remember those rumors popping up very much.

The inference is that the Tigers might go after Cameron as a free agent, if they trade Curtis Granderson. As we said on Tuesday, however, it's unclear how that would help Detroit save money, as Cameron made $10 million last year and would surely cost more than Granderson is owed for 2010. (Still, I think Cameron would look great in left field for Detroit.)

Over in the FanPosts, Andy Seiler posted an excerpt to his review of the Tigers' 2009 draft. You can read his thoughts to Detroit's first five picks, including Jacob Turner, Andrew Oliver, and Wade Gaynor.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 15:22:13 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

Gregg "Triple G" Zaun: 2010 Brewer?

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Some things to read while running to the store for orange soda.

Tourist season continues in Rumorville, with Gregg Zaun (aka "Triple G") passing through yesterday. Apparently the Brewers are one of several teams that have expressed interest in the former Rays catcher, who previously said he expects to sign by the end of the week. A few quick thoughts on Zaun:

He hit .260/.345/.416 last season between the Orioles and Rays, well above average for a catcher.
He'll also turn 39 in April.
2010 will be his 16th major league season, and he's spent at least part of one of those seasons with the Orioles (two tours), Marlins, Rangers, Royals, Astros, Rockies, Blue Jays and Rays. He needs to sign with the D-Backs to complete the Expansion Cycle.

I can't decide how I feel about the possibility, but I hope the Brewers don't overinvest in it: He could be an interesting piece, but the fact that there's competition for his services would imply the price could be pretty high for a catcher with a lot of miles on his tires.

Meanwhile, Doug Melvin flew out to LA this week to meet with Mark Attanasio to discuss the club's financial situation and develop a plan for free agency. Fire Doug Melvin has a list of the tough questions that should be asked, and actually probably should have been asked a while ago. Comments continue to drift in on Melvin's decision not to offer arbitration to Felipe Lopez and Mike Cameron:

Tyler Maas of Bugs & Cranks was woken up by a ticket sales rep and proceeded to pen some half-awake thoughts on the situation.
Master Reid of Quevedo at the Buffet reacted to the decision and thought out loud on projections for the winter meetings.
Keep Turning Up The Heat! echoed some of the same conversations we've had around here about Lopez's value and tradeability.

All of this mess is only making the job harder for the folks the Brewers have hired to sell tickets for next season. Caitlin Moyer has a profile and offseason work plan for Director of Season Ticket Sales Billy Friess.

If you drove by Miller Park yesterday (or stopped in the Fan Shop, as I did), you might have noticed that the lights were on. Apparently a camera crew was working in the park, shooting a three second clip that will eventually be part of a Coors Light commercial.

In the minors:

Jim Breen of Bernie's Crew recently conducted an interview with Jonathan Lucroy, discussing the recent attention he's received, and current/former teammates Zach Braddock, Mark Rogers and Chris Cody. It's worth a read.
Lisa Winston of MiLB.com also has a great read on the early results the Brewers are seeing from 2009 draft picks.
And, if you're doing some holiday shopping for the minor league addict in your life, you may be interested in some deals from the Nashville Sounds.

Around baseball:

A's: Avoided arbitration with reliever Joey Devine, agreeing to a one-year deal worth roughly $550k.
Indians: Signed reliever Jason Grilli to a minor league deal.

The Brewers may or may not be preparing to make an offer to Randy Wolf. While the Brewers may be in, the Astros are the first team I've seen to publicly acknowledge they're out.

Another day, another list of Rule 5 Draft prospects. Today's comes from DRaysBay, and includes Royals reliever Chris "Disco" Hayes.

If you're looking to learn something about sabermetrics today, here's an opportunity: Big League Stew has everything you ever wanted to know about FIP, it's uses and misuses.

Here's a problem I wish I could complain about: Dave Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner is having a hard time finding topics to write about now that times have changed in the Mariners' front office and the organization is actually making logical moves. I'd much rather complain about that than the dent my forehead is starting to make in my desk.

Oh, but there is a former Brewer note today: The Midwest League's Fort Wayne Tin Caps have announced their coaching staff for 2010, and Bronswell Patrick is their pitching coach. He appeared in 32 games for the 1998 team.

On this day in 1901, the American League officially dropped the Milwaukee Brewers and replaced them with the St. Louis Browns, ending the city's first run in the AL after just one season.

On this day in 1971, the Brewers acquired Jim Colborn, Brock Davis and Earl Stephenson from the Cubs for Jose Cardenal. Colborn won 20 games for the Brewers in 1973, pitching 22 complete games and logging 314.1 innings. He's the only Brewer ever to pass 300 IP.

On this day in 1989, the Brewers signed Dave Parker as a free agent. Parker would spend one season in Milwaukee, hitting .289/.330/.451 with 21 home runs. He was traded during to the Angels during spring training in 1991 for Dante Bichette.

Happy birthdays today to:

Matt Childers, who made eight appearances for the 2002 Brewers and turns 31.
Gary Glover, who made 19 appearances for the 2004-2005 Brewers and turns 33.
Darryl Hamilton, who played center field for most of the 1988-1995 seasons, and turns 45.

Oh, and if you'd like to be paid to watch and score baseball games, polish up your resume because your dream job just opened up.

Drink up.

Tuesday Rockpile: Pujols to be crowned today

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 16:02:47 -0000

More photos » by Jeff Roberson - AP

Tulo just beats out Pujols here. That won't happen today.

Browse more photos »

The NL MVP award will be going back to St. Louis today at 11am MST. Albert Pujols won the award in 2005 and 2008. Aside from landslide drama, we might be interested to see where Troy Tulowitzki ends up on ballots. The MLB.com article made a serious mistake in appointing two Nationals as "dark horses" while leaving Tulo's name completely out of the article.

Tracy Ringolsby acknowledges the Rockies don't have a contender for MVP, but he still made sure purple would find its way on the voting tapestry with his vote:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Troy Tulowitzki
3. Chase Utley
4. Hanley Ramirez
5. Prince Fielder
6. Andre Ethier
7. Pablo Sandoval
8. Adrian Gonzalez
9. Huston Street
10. Adam Wainwright

Free agent talk

MLB Rumors recently posted their Offseason Oulook for the Rockies, coming to the conclusion we all know - they won't be spending much money this offseason.

Hat tip to RMN here: Jason Grilli has signed with a seventh team. Who that team is has yet to be announced, but we can be certain it isn't the Rockies. Grilli was 3-2 with a 2.94 ERA with Colorado in 2008, and after being traded to Texas for cash in June, he had an ERA under two for much of the season.

Buster Olney tweets that teams are being aggressive in their pursuit of Randy Wolf. That's not surprising given the weak FA class. Marc Hulet from Fangraphs warns that the lefty may be a a Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing. Perhaps he meant a sheep with a wolf's name.

It is looking likely that the Dodgers won't trade for Roy Halladay to replace Wolf, as Ned Colletti doesn't want to part with Chad Billingsley. A deal hear is widely considered "a long shot."

The Colorado native could still land in "Los Angeles" though. With J.P. Ricciardi gone, the Angels have renewed interest, as Toronto's new GM might not require Erick Aybar in return.

Lastly, Are Metrics Blinding Our Perception? - NYTimes.com "Welcome to the Age of Metrics - or to the End of Instinct."

The State of the Colorado Rockies (Pre-Free Agency)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 29 Oct 2009 22:38:04 -0000

While Major League Baseball has yet to crown a champion, the Rockies' season is (unfortunately) over and it is time to look forward towards the swiftly oncoming offseason. The Rockies have quite a to-do list this year.

The clock for Colorado and the rest of MLB starts ticking when the Fall (Winter?) Classic concludes, as teams have 15 days to exclusively negotiate with their prospective free agents. After that time (let's say November 20th), free agents are, well, free to go where their services are most sought after. The original team has until December 12th to tender 2010 contracts to their free agents.

For those players (like Garrett Atkins) who have less than six years of MLB service time, their teams control their rights, but must tender the player a contract offer or salary arbitration, by December 1st--with the player needing to make a decision by the 7th. As a result, at baseball's Winter Meetings from December 7-10, teams will have some idea as to where the market stands.

Finally, December 8th is a very important deadline, as it is the day in which MLB clubs must set their 40 man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 Draft, which occurs on the 10th.

These dates and other offseason deadlines are explained in more detail here.

To learn a little bit more about some of the topics I just touched upon, please check out these previous sessions of Purple Row Academy, which I'll be updating over the offseason:

Trades and Contract Tenders

Rule 5 Draft

Now that you understand a little better the timeline that Dan O'Dowd and the Rockies are working with, I'll break down the Rockies' contract situations (and the decisions to be made therein) extensively after the jump.

Before I begin, let me first note that this analysis will be limited to what I can project the 25 man roster to be, since I'm forecasting the 2010 ODP (which only includes the active roster and DL). For most of the players not on the 25 man roster but who are on the 40 man, they will be paid the prorated minimum should they make the Show and considerably less in the minor leagues.

What the Rockies Already Owe in 2010

This category is for money that the Rockies have already committed to the 2010 roster. Note that this only includes players who are under contract with the Rockies (not just under team control), giving management concrete salary obligations to work around. This data, as well as much of the data for the rest of this study, was contributed by the incomparable Jeff Euston at Cot's Contracts.

For each player I'll give their name, approximate ML service time, 2010 salary, and minimum future salary obligations. This means that I assume that the Rockies decline every club option.

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Additional Minimum Obligation	Years After 2010

Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0

Total		$48,058,000	$72,283,000

This chart shows that the Rockies, even if they do not re-sign Torrealba or Embree, have committed over $48 million to seven players on the 2010 roster. And these are only the players who the Rockies know how much they have to pay. Again, this is if the Rockies don't pick up any club options on these players.

Pre-Arbitration Players

For the players listed below, the Rockies have the option of keeping them under control for several more years and can do so cheaply in 2010 (for a price between $400,000 and $460,000). For the purposes of this exercise I'm assuming a 3% raise over 2009 salary. This is assuming that the Rockies let Embree and Torrealba walk and find internal replacements. The pre-arbitration players:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

This chart tells us that the Rockies will be paying a little over $3.3 million to eight players on the 25 man roster. This fact again emphasizes the importance of teams maximizing the value of young players.

The player whose omission sticks out on that list is Matt Murton. With his service time, he would seem to be eligible for Super Two Arbitration status, but due to the fact that he did not accrue at least 86 days of ML service time in 2009 he is rendered ineligible for salary arbitration. At least, I think so. Of course, unless the Rockies unload either Hawpe or Ryan Spilborghs, Murton won't be on the roster--and since this projection is based upon roster stability, Murton is not included on this projection.

Projecting these 15 slots was easy--it's the potential arbitration cases that can get tricky.

Arbitration-Eligible Players

In addition to the 15 players mentioned in the tables above, plus Matt Murton (who would be the victim of a numbers game if the status quo is kept), the Rockies have 10 potential salary arbitration cases on their hands with players that have between three and six years of ML service time (Tracy Ringolsby lists them here). Calculating potential salaries for these players is quite tricky. As I noted when I wrote about ML service time, the average salary raise in 2009 was 172% when multi-year deals for arbitration-eligible players (like Ryan Howard's 3 year, $54 million deal) are included.

The Rockies in 2008 gave raises of over 300% to Clint Barmes and Jorge De La Rosa plus hefty salary increases to Taylor Buchholz, Huston Street, Garrett Atkins, and Jason Grilli--raises which increased payroll by $7,649,000 over the six players' 2008 salaries. This year, the Rockies' situation will be much more expensive, with several of their arb-eligible players performing at a high level in 2009.

When projecting arbitration raises for the Rockies I did so based on some past history--giving higher % raises to players with a lower starting salary and to those who had performed in a starting role.

Here's which I came up with, provided the Rockies tendered a 2010 contract offer to each of their arbitration eligibles:

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Garrett Atkins	5.072	$5,640,000	-20%
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0%
Matt Belisle	4.02	$1,200,000	50%
Randy Flores	5.061	$900,000	50%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90%

Total		$32,077,560	134%

This chart tells us that based on career performance and function (weighted more heavily toward 2009), the Rockies will pay these 10 players over $32 million--about $13.7 million more than they were paid in 2009. This chart is even assuming that Garrett Atkins will be tendered and will accept a minimum 80% of his previous year's salary (unlikely). Even with Atkins, the projected average arbitration salary increases is only 134%, well below 2009's MLB average of 172%--meaning that my estimated raises, shocking in their size as they may seem, may even be on the low side.

Estimated Rockies 2010 ODP

This calculation represents the status quo, if the Rockies neither re-sign any of their free agents nor get rid of any players under team control and remain dormant in free agency. The resulting roster would have 24 players on it with Buchholz starting the year on the DL (therefore another player's salary would need to be added in) and would be paid:

Multi-Year Contracts: $48,058,000

Pre-Arbitration Contracts: $3,324,840

Arbitration Contracts: $32,077,560

Total ODP: $83,460,400

In other words, the Rockies' ODP will need to grow by $8,259,400, or 10.98%, in order to maintain the status quo (a cost certainty price floor, if you will).

What This All Means

It's pretty obvious to me that the status quo won't happen, as Atkins will likely be non-tendered and one of the outfielders (Hawpe, Spilborghs, or Murton) will be shopped around and dealt. What the above calculation shows, however, is that the Rockies will have very little payroll flexibility to add pieces for 2010--especially if the Rockies need to replace Atkins and grab another bullpen piece.

The most pressing issue given this limitation is the $5.4 million team option on set-up man Rafael Betancourt--in my opinion the team simply can't afford to pay it, unless they are planning on moving Hawpe and his $7.5 million contract. Also, the Rockies have a few free agents they'd like to re-sign, including Joe Beimel (who will probably cost around $2 million), Jason Giambi ($1.5 million), and Torrealba (at most $2 million). Again, Colorado would need to move Hawpe to make this possible.

Remember though that if the Rockies do move Hawpe, they'll receive trade assets in return--and especially if those players are major leaguers they must also be well-compensated.

If I Were In Charge...

Given the financial limitations facing the Rockies and in light of the fact that they were very successful in 2009, a fine line must be walked between cost consciousness and competitiveness. Because the Rockies can not add very many, if any, significant pieces given their current projected payroll, they need to make a few moves. Here's what I would do this offseason to shape the 2010 Rockies:

1. Non-Tender Garrett Atkins. For the love of God, please--Atkins doubles as expensive and bad.

2. Pick only one or two out-going free agents to re-sign. There isn't any room for more than that. The Rockies' top priority should be getting back Betancourt or Beimel if they can get them back for a reasonable price (in this case, under $2.5 million). Relief pitching is too fungible and the market too inefficient to pay relievers big bucks. Likely this person will be Beimel. If the Rockies can get Torrealba back for about $1.5-2 million, they should do it--but they should let him walk if he wants much more than that. An alternative to Torrealba would be to keep Giambi around if he could be had for $1.5 million to come off the bench. I would keep one or the other (or neither), there isn't money for both.

Torrealba would replace Phillips on the roster or Giambi would replace the recently outrighted Omar Quintanilla.

3. Look hard for a taker for Brad Hawpe. In order for the Rockies to shore up their rotation and find a suitable sub for Atkins, they will need to move someone from their glut of outfielders to maintain payroll flexibility. Hawpe may very well be the Rockies' best hitting outfielder and an excellent leader in the clubhouse, but his horrific defense, much higher salary, and All-Star status make Hawpe an ideal trade piece--a player that has much more marginal value to prospective trading partners than he does to his own team. Even after his cold second half, Hawpe does have value around the league (especially as a DH), enough to garner the package I've outlined below.

A possible trade package for Hawpe would be a young back-end rotation starter and either a corner infield reserve or a B prospect or two. The Rockies need starting pitching depth for the simple reason that they were fortunate with pitcher health last year (basically the same five starters all year)--something that will likely not continue next year. They do have a bevy of good pitching prospects, but they will be relying on Francis or Morales to nail down the fifth slot in the rotation, so some insurance is probably needed. If the Rockies can get a major league-ready arm plus a prospect for Hawpe they should pull the trigger.

If no such trade package were to surface, either Spilborghs or Murton would need to be moved--and my decision would be Spilborghs due to the fact that he's older, will command a higher salary, and has Scott Boras as an agent.

4. Gauge the market for Manuel Corpas. If someone will offer value, I'd move him. But value in this situation would be relatively high--I'd hate to sell low on Corpas.

5. Bring in the usual suspects on minor league deals as pitching depth. There are plenty of guys that fit this mold (Fogg, Herges, Rincon, etc.). This is cheap depth to be used in case of dire emergencies only.

The resulting ODP from these moves (assuming Hawpe is moved) would be about $76.7 million, a slight payroll increase from 2009.

Thursday's Frosty Mug

KLSnow — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 13:30:54 -0000

More photos » by Morry Gash - AP

Mike Cameron has suggested he'd be willing to take a discount to remain in Milwaukee, but teams like the Mets may drive up even that discounted price.

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Some things to read while taking a navigator to IKEA.

Gord Ash chatted with fans yesterday regarding prospects and the offseason, and the transcript is well worth your time. Topics covered include Jeremy Jeffress, the future of baseball in Huntsville, catching prospects and much more.

Meanwhile, Rick Peterson remains the top story. R.J. Anderson of FanGraphs thinks the Brewers made a good hire, but need to find him some talent to work with. Rob Neyer used that post as a jumping off point to discuss the differences between Peterson's great Oakland staffs and the current lackluster one.

Of course, the Brewers could be looking to make a trade for pitching. It probably won't be anything like Casa de Machado's proposed deal.

In the minors and AFL:

Jonathan Lucroy went 4-for-4 with a solo home run on Tuesday, but it was Zach Braddock who earned a Star O' the Day award from Jonathan Mayo. Braddock pitched two scoreless innings in a 14-10 game.
I'm not an ESPN Insider subscriber, but if you are you can check out Keith Law's AFL diary, which includes a note on Lorenzo Cain.
Matt Hagen of The Hardball Times compares the top prospects in the 2009 International and Pacific Coast Leagues, and lists Alcides Escobar as one of the PCL's top stars.

As offseason speculation continues to heat up, Mike Cameron's name continues to be tied to other teams. Marty Noble of MLB.com thinks Cameron would be a great fit as a Met, because his defensive range is exactly what they need to cover Citi Field's expansive outfield.

Around baseball:

Rangers: Removed pitcher Jason Grilli and C Kevin Richardson from their 40 man roster. Both will be minor league free agents.
White Sox: Claimed outfielder Alejandro de Aza off waivers from the Marlins.

Beyond the Box Score has an interesting "which is worse?" battle going on, in the Small Sample Size division: Would you rather know how a batter has performed in his last two games, or how he's done in a similar number of appearances against a certain pitcher? Sadly, even though neither stat is exceptionally relevant, I still frequently use both in game threads.

Remember Jeff Juden? He was only a Brewer for a short time but he's a pretty fascinating character, as it turns out. Brewerfan.net has a great interview with him, including some stories he's never told before.

Happy birthday today to two obscure Brewer catchers: 1977 Brewer Jamie Quirk, who turns 55, and 2003 Brewer Keith Osik, who turns 41.

I don't have any more baseball stuff today, but I do have a song for you to sing.

Drink up.

WAR Lords of the Diamond (Relief Pitchers)

Jabberwocky — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 16:00:29 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Fuentes makes the cut. See who else joins him among the Rockies' elite relievers after the jump.

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Previous Sessions in the WAR Lords Series:

C (with methodology) I 1B I 2B I 3B I SS I LF I CF I RF

For the next step in my ongoing quest to quantify the greatest Rockies ever by position, I'm revealing the best performers at relief pitcher.

Obviously this is not a comprehensive list of all relief pitchers, but all the pitchers who have made a large contribution to the Rockies as relievers were weighed, measured, and (often) found wanting.

Once again, I'm using Sean Smith's historical WAR database (not Fangraphs) to compile these numbers (with a big assist to the fabulous Baseball Reference; here is the glossary of the terms Smith uses and an explanation of how pitching WAR is calculated.

As I explained in the pitching WAR article (please reference it for more detail on this point), relievers are by and large shortchanged by WAR (which is a counting, not a rate stat). This is because WAR ignores the game's situation and context--a strikeout when the bases are empty in a blowout is counted the same as a ninth-inning strikeout with the bases loaded in a one-run game.

As a result, relievers, whose primary value comes from delivering in high leverage situations, have their contributions diminished by WAR. There are stats out there that measure this well (like Leverage Index and Win Probability Added), but to measure relievers by those stats is both inconsistent with the rest of this series and impossible (the stats don't go back to 1993). In any case, Smith's WAR database remains an excellent way to quantify pitching value, starter or reliever.

Relief pitchers have consistently gained influence in baseball since the 1960s, evolving from the realm of broken down failed starters into a highly specialized field. As Dave Cameron said though:

Relievers are, in general, failed starting pitchers who are given an easier task that their skillset will allow them to handle. They are selectively managed to face hitters whom they have the best chance of getting out, and they get to throw at maximum effort on nearly every pitch, giving them greater velocity over their shorter appearances.

Nearly every starting pitcher in baseball could be a useful relief pitcher. Very few relief pitchers could be useful starting pitchers.

This doesn't necessarily hold true for the rare dominant closer, but by and large this is a good explanation of what a relief pitcher is. Many teams have chosen to bring their stud starting pitching prospects up in the bullpen to get them used to the majors and because it is relatively much easier than starting. Generally back-end relievers have one or two plus pitches that they can throw at maximum effort, often generating excellent results--but they would fail under the rigors of handling a lineup two or three times in a row.

The bullpen is by nature the most fungible piece the team, generating high turnover due to the incredible variability of relief pitching performance. After all, the Rockies only have Huston Street this year that has stayed in the bullpen all year long. While this is a little extreme, the Rockies have had quite a few relievers in their short history.

In order to qualify for consideration for this list the pitchers had to be one of the top five relievers in innings pitched in a given year or throw over 50 innings for the team in a mostly relief role. It's a relatively deep group, with 18 relievers delivering at least 1 WAR for the Rockies.

Relief Pitchers

Note: some of these pitchers were both starters and relievers for the Rockies. I have placed these players in this category subjectively on the basis of where I believe they provided the greatest impact to the Rockies. In case of an average rank tie, career WAR is the tiebreaker. I'm ranking seven players to reflect the fact that the modern bullpen generally uses seven pitchers.

1. Steve Reed

Career WAR: 9.2 (1st)
Top Three Seasons: 5.6, 1995-1997 (1st)
Top Season: 3.1, 1997 (T-2nd)
Average Rank: 1.33

Steve Reed is one of my favorite all-time Rockies. Though he never really closed for the team (15 saves over 7 years with the Rockies), I usually felt pretty secure about a lead that he protected. Reed is a great story, having signed with the Giants as an undrafted 23 year old college free agent, somehow making it to the majors at 27, and carving out a 13 year career out of it.

The Rockies acquired the right-hander with the 60th pick of the expansion draft and he paid immediate dividends for them, taking the ball 64 times in 1993 and solidifying the back end of the Colorado bullpen for five years. His best year was the magical 1995 Wild Card run (one of several excellent bullpen performances that year), in which he was 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA over 84 IP. His K/9 was 8.46 (3.76 K/BB) with a FIP of 3.25 and an incredible ERA+ of 252! All in all it was worth 3.1 WAR--a fantastic reliever season. Street this year has been worth only 1.5 WAR.

Reed left after the 1997 season for free agency, but returned as a 38 year old for the 2003 and 2004 Rockies, where he posted two 1.2 WAR seasons (great for a reliever). Indeed, Reed never posted a negative WAR for the Rockies, a stunning model of consistency in a variable profession. This consistent excellence is what made him the greatest Rockies reliever ever.

2. Brian Fuentes

Career WAR: 8.8 (2nd)
Top Three Seasons: 5.2, 2005-2007 (2nd)
Top Season: 2.7, 2005 (4th)
Average Rank: 2.67

The Rockies' all-time saves leader with 115, Brian Fuentes was acquired in the Jeff Cirillo trade from Seattle after the 2001 season. The former 25th round draft pick uses a deceptive left-handed delivery and plus stuff to baffle hitters from both sides of the plate, but as many Rockies fans will tell you, it was always an adventure with Fuentes.

Fuentes has had two seasons over 2 WAR of his seven with Colorado, the first of which occurring in 2005, when he posted a 2.91 ERA and a 3.40 FIP over 74.1 IP with a K/9 of 11.02 (K/BB of 2.68) and an ERA+ of 164 on the way to 2.7 WAR. Last year Fuentes had similar success (2 WAR) with a 2.73 ERA (2.24 FIP), 11.78 K/9 (3.73 K/BB), and 168 ERA+ over 62.2 IP.

As all things must, the Fuentes era came to a close (get it?) as he moved out of the Rockies' price range with his fine performance and as a Type A free agent garnered the Rockies what turned out to be Tim Wheeler and Rex Brothers. I think that Rockies fans are happy with the guy we got to replace him, though we certainly thank Brian for his seven years of service.

3. Curtis Leskanic

Career WAR: 5.2 (4th)
Top Three Seasons: 3.2, 1993-1995 (9th)
Top Season: 3.1, 1995 (T-2nd)
Average Rank: 5

Contrary to Steve Reed, I had an irrational hatred of Curtis Leskanic as a young fan, predicting doom and gloom every time that he took the mound. Colorado acquired Leskanic (originally a 1989 8th round pick of the Indians) with the 66th pick in the expansion draft and plugged him right into the bullpen. The right-handed Leskanic generally handled setup duties and generally terrified me when he did so. I was even more mortified when he handled the closer position (20 saves as a Rockie).

The numbers by and large back me up on my fears, though Leskanic's saving grace on this list is his phenomenal 1995 (similar to Reed), in which he also delivered 3.1 WAR. Leskanic had a 6-3 record with 3.40 ERA (2.86 FIP) over 98 IP, 9.83 K/9 (3.24 K/BB), 10 saves, and a 159 ERA+. Most of Leskanic's Colorado years were very average besides his career year in 1995, as he was hampered by his high walk rate and poor FIP.

In any case, my personal torturer was traded by the Rockies after the 1999 season to the Brewers for another reliever, lefty specialist Mike Myers.

4. Bruce Ruffin

Career WAR: 5.7 (3rd)
Top Three Seasons: 4.6, 1993-1995 (3rd)
Top Season: 1.9, 1993 (10th)
Average Rank: 5.33

Bruce Ruffin is yet another original Rockie near the top of this list. The 1985 2nd round draft pick of the Phillies signed with Colorado as a free agent before 1993 and he finished out his career with the Rockies, through 1997. Though he'd primarily been a starter before coming to the Rockies, Ruffin was primarily a bullpen guy for Colorado. He served as Colorado's closer in 1994 and 1996, posting solid seasons both years. In all he finished with 60 saves as a Rockie.

Like Reed and Leskanic, Ruffin was excellent in 1995 as a full-time reliever (1.7 WAR) but his best overall season was 1993 (1.9 WAR), in which he started 12 games (remember, starters are more valuable than relievers!). All in all, Ruffin was very solid for the Rockies over his tenure with the team.

5a. Jerry Dipoto

Career WAR: 4.7 (5th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.4, 1997-1999 (4th)
Top Season: 2.1, 1999 (8th)
Average Rank: 5.67

Jerry Dipoto, now an executive in the Diamondbacks system, pitched for Colorado from 1997-2000. The 1989 3rd round pick of the Indians was traded to Colorado in exchange for Armando Reynoso after the 1996 season. The right-handed Dipoto served as the Rockies' closer in 1997 and 1998, racking up 36 saves as a Rockie.

Dipoto was at his best, though, as a setup man in 1999 (2.1 WAR). Unfortunately, Dipoto's career was derailed by a neck injury before the 2000 season as he competed for the closer's job again, cutting short a promising career.

5b. Jose Jimenez

Career WAR: 4.2 (6th)
Top Three Seasons: 4.2, 2000-2002 (5th)
Top Season: 2.3, 2000 (6th)
Average Rank: 5.67

Jose Jimenez, number two on the Rockies' all-time saves list with 102, was acquired by Colorado after the 1999 season as part of the trade that sent Dave Veres and the late Darryl Kile to St. Louis. Colorado converted the 26 year-old hard-throwing righty from a starter into a reliever. Jimenez made an immediate impact with the Rockies in his new role, saving 24 games with a 3.18 ERA (3.94 FIP) over 70.2 IP with a 182 ERA+ despite only a 5.60 K/9 ratio (suggesting a fluke), earning a WAR of 2.3.

Unsurprisingly, Jimenez never was that dominant again, though he did have two more useful seasons (including 41 saves in 2002) as the Rockies' closer, plus a fourth one that was poor and led to the Shawn Chacon experiment. The Rockies let Jimenez leave after 2003 and within a year he was out of baseball.

7. Darren Holmes

Career WAR: 3.8 (7th)
Top Three Seasons: 3.6, 1995-1997 (6th)
Top Season: 2.3, 1995 (6th)
Average Rank: 6.33

Filling out my imaginary bullpen is the Rockies' first closer, Darren Holmes (he did the honors in 1993 and 1995). The 16th round pick of the Dodgers in 1984, Holmes was selected by the Rockies with the fifth pick of the expansion draft and inserted right into the closer's role (he saved 46 games as a Rockie).

Further showing just how special the 1995 bullpen was, Holmes had his career year then (2.3 WAR), going 6-1 and saving 14 games with a 167 ERA+. Once again, the Rockies in 1995 had Reed (3.1 WAR), Leskanic (3.1), Holmes (2.3), and Ruffin (1.7). That's quite a back end right there.

Holmes stayed with the Rockies through 1997, after which he kicked around the league for six more years, never again attaining the same success he enjoyed in Colorado.

Others of note: Mike Munoz, despite having pitched six years for the Rockies, ended up with a net -0.4 WAR (32nd overall) and an injured Roger Bailey on his conscience.

Gabe White owns the best single WAR reliever season (seriously) with his 3.3 WAR 2000. White in 83 IP was 11-2 with a 2.17 ERA (2.71 FIP), 9.00 K/9 (5.60 K/BB), and an ERA+ of 267! He never replicated that success again.

Manny Corpas finished tied with White for eighth with 3.4 WAR, while Taylor Buchholz (2.1) was 14th and Jason Grilli (1.1) was 16th.

Next week I'll tackle starting pitching, and then it will be time to assemble the greatest Rockies team ever.

Blast from the Past: A look at the 1997 MLB Draft

Eli Greenspan — Sun, 23 Aug 2009 04:37:07 -0000

More photos » by Duane Burleson - AP

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The MLB draft has come into discussion this week as young amateur players signed their first professional contracts. 'Stephen Strasburg and the Nationals' has been thrown around as a franchise changing move. I decided to go back to 1997 to take a look at how first round draft picks impacted their franchise.

Of the 31 picks in the draft, 21 of them made it to the major league level.

The Angels, Blue Jays, and Astros made franchise changing moves with their picks in 1997. The Angels selected Troy Glaus with the third overall pick in the draft. Glaus - a power hitter out of UCLA - advanced through the minor leagues to lead the Angels to win the World Series, taking World Series MVP.

The Blue Jays selected an athletic young outfielder by the name of Vernon Wells. At the time, Wells contemplated a scholarship to play at the University of Texas, where he could play football and baseball. Wells chose to sign with the Blue Jays and has been with them since. He is a two-time All-Star with three Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Vernon Wells	118	478	64	122	29	2	13	51	33	64	14	3	.255	.301	.406

The Astros selected Lance Berkman with the sixteenth pick in the draft. Berkman showed off his power in the minor leagues, rising quickly as the up-and-coming first baseman. However, Berkman was blocked by All-Star Jeff Bagwell, who was in his prime at the time. Berkman was forced to move to the outfield, which extended his stay in the minor leagues.

Berkman broke out in 2000 for the Astros, showing up a month late and hitting .297 with 21 home runs. Berkman has appeared in five All-Star games since, hitting a career (so far) 306 home runs, ranked second all time among the Houston Astos.

A lot of attention in this draft was on J.D. Drew, whose agent Scott Boras was demanding a 10 million dollar contract for his client.

Sound familiar?

The Phillies had no intention of giving an amateur player 10 million dollars, but drafted him anyways. The Phillies couldn't work out a deal and the last time I checked, Drew was still not welcome in Philadelphia.

Drew did make history though with his brother, Tim Drew, who was drafted with the 28th pick in the draft. That was the first time brothers had been taken together in the first round.

The Cubs took Jon Garland only to trade at the deadline a year later for veteran Matt Karchner. While Garland went on to have seven strong seasons in the White Sox rotation, Karchner was released following his six-week stay with the Cubs and did not pitch in the majors again.

Several more low-key guys came out of the '97 draft. Michael Cuddyer has been in the Twins organization since they drafted him, compiling a career .269 average with 89 home runs (and counting) in nine major league seasons. While Jason Grilli may have not lived up to expectations as a first rounder, he has put up fairly good numbers in recent years. He has a 2.06 ERA since joining Texas this season. Jayson Werth, who was taken by the Orioles, is starting to come into his own in Philadelphia now that he has a starting job.

	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2009 - Jayson Werth	118	431	79	116	22	1	28	76	67	114	13	3	.269	.371	.520

One more guy to put up solid career numbers is Adam Kennedy. Kennedy was taken by the Cardinals, but left to join the Angels and played a key role in their run to winning the World Series. He did return to the Cardinals in 2007 for two seasons.

The first overall pick, Matt Anderson, could never quite settle down in the majors. A torn muscle early on in his career may have played a factor.

Not a bad year as MLB drafts go, but I'm sure fans expect better results coming from this years pool.

Deflated, Defeated: Rangers 7, Tigers 3

Ian Casselberry — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 03:00:09 -0000

More photos » by Tom Pennington - AP

Miguel Cabrera is about to lay flat on the ground here, which pretty much describes the Detroit Tigers' effort after the second inning.

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If the Tigers aren't going to put much effort into trying to win a game, how much effort should I put into a recap?

This one started off promisingly, with Detroit pouncing on an early scoring opportunity, instead of frittering away yet another chance. With two on and two out, Ramon Santiago smacked a double into the opposite field gap to drive in the first run of the game. Then Dusty Ryan followed that up with a single that brought in two more runs. A three-run lead for Luke French!

French got so excited that he gave the lead right back in the bottom half of the inning. With two outs in the inning, but two runners on, three straight Ranger batters got base hits. A single, triple, and double, to be specific. French almost gave up the cycle in one inning. What he did give up was four runs, and the Tigers went flat after that.

Detroit put two runners on to lead off the fourth, but the next three hitters went down. And from then until the ninth inning, another 12 Tigers batters failed to reach base. Perhaps adding to the indignity was former Tiger Jason Grilli recording six of those outs in the fifth and sixth innings, which turned out to be good for the win. (Another former Tiger, Guillermo Moscoso, closed out the game in the ninth.) Throw in three errors, and that pretty much sums up the night. It wasn't pretty.

Comment of the Night:

On the bright side...

We’ve only left 4 guys on base!

by SabreRoseTiger

And your runner-up, but you have to read the comment directly before it for context.

Five Questions: The Dallas Morning News's Richard Durrett

Ian Casselberry — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 17:55:19 -0000

More photos » by Rick Scuteri - AP

Do the Tigers have to worry about catching swine flu from Vincente Padilla on Thursday, in addition to trying to hit him? Watch out for any spitballs!

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With the Tigers in Arlington to play the Rangers, we're playing "Five Questions" with Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News' Rangers Blog to learn a little bit about the opposition. Of course, you might remember the Rangers as the team that's lost 11 straight in Detroit.

Actually, Richard e-mailed me last night with questions about the Tigers, which I was more than happy to occupy myself with once Rick Porcello gave the White Sox a 4-0 lead. So I asked him for some Q&A in return. That should be up later this afternoon, and I'll provide a link.

Bless You Boys: The Rangers' starting pitchers for this series don't look very familiar. (At least two of the three.) But it looks like they've been pitching well. How much of a priority is making a deal for a pitcher before Friday's trade deadline?

Richard Durrett: It is a priority. The question is if the Rangers will go after one of the top-level guys on the market (Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee) or attempt to get a guy that’s more suited at the backend of the rotation. I think they’ll try to do that latter. They don’t want to part with top prospects like Justin Smoak, Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland and Martin Perez. And that’s part of what it would take to get Halladay. So they might try to add a starting pitcher that won’t cost that price. They could also use another bat. The offense has really struggled the last 6 weeks (or more). But the club also can’t afford to get a big-money guy, so I’m not sure you’ll see any blockbusters from Texas this week.

BYB: In Detroit, there have often been questions about whether to move Curtis Granderson lower in the batting order, but the Tigers don't have anyone else suited to hit leadoff. Is it a similar situation with Ian Kinsler, or do the Rangers like him at the top of the lineup?

RD: He grew into the leadoff spot last season and played well in April in 2009. But he’s struggled since then. And he’s not getting on base or working counts deep enough on a consistent basis right now for a leadoff hitter. The question the Rangers have to ask is if moving him out of the leadoff spot would make a difference. And who would they put in that spot? I think David Murphy and Elvis Andrus are possibilities, but at this point, it appears the Rangers will leave Kinsler at the top of the order and see if he can figure it out.

BYB: Former Tiger Jason Grilli has been pitching great for the Rangers since coming over from the Rockies, where he wasn't doing very well. What did the Rangers see in him to want to make that deal and what sort of changes has he made in his game since arriving in Texas?

RD: Sometimes players just need a change of scenery. I think Grilli got a fresh start here. His role is middle/late inning relief and he’s done a nice job with it. Grilli doesn’t do anything fancy. But he’s aggressive with hitters and isn’t afraid to let his defense help him. I see a guy pitching with a lot of confidence and someone who’s personality really fits in with the Rangers’ bullpen. He’s been a great addition.

BYB: Is Vicente Padilla still expected to make his start on Tuesday, after being diagnosed with swine flu? And have other Rangers shown symptoms?

RD: Padilla is expected to make his start. He’s not contagious anymore, so as long as he feels OK, he’s a go. Other players did show symptoms (catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, David Murphy, and a few others), but it appears the club is getting over that. Frank Francisco went on the DL with walking pneumonia. He should return this week, though it may not be during the Tigers series. That means C.J. Wilson will close.

BYB: How badly do the Rangers want to win some games from the Tigers, in light of Detroit's 11-game winning streak vs. Texas at Comerica Park? Or does that sort of thing not really come up?

RD: Oh, it comes up from fans. And I’m sure the players are aware of it. The team has to know its lost 7 straight games to Detroit. It helps that this series isn’t at Comerica Park (what is up with the Rangers’ inability to win there?).

# # #

Thanks once again to Richard for taking the time to answer our questions. Check out his blog at DallasNews.com over the next three days to get the opposing view on this series. Richard is also on Twitter, if you'd like to follow him there.

Tuesday Rockpile: Bent on the bruised bullpen

Poseidon's Fist — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 13:15:35 -0000

More photos » by Ben Margot - AP

Will there be anyone to give Street (and the starters for that matter) and help in the pen?

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Chat: Chat with Buster Olney - SportsNation - ESPN
Buster Olney held a chat Monday on ESPN.com, which Rowbot holly96 highlighted in yesterday's Rockpile comments. The biggest highlight:

I had a longtime evaluator tell me last night that the Rockies are two middle relievers away from being the best team in the NL — they’ve got a deep lineup (since Tulowitzki started hitting), a solid rotation (Aaron Cook could be the pitcher of the month in the NL), an excellent bench, and Huston Street has settled in as closer.

I'm sure the boys at TrueBlueLA would take exception to that evaluation, but for those of you pining for national respect, there you go. This spring, that didn't appear to be the glaring weakness. Jason Grilli had a poor stint and was jettisoned prematurely (he has a 2.16 ERA in 8.1 IP in Texas), Manuel Corpas has been injured and inconsistent, and then of course there's that Tommy John demon.

The bullpen does need help. Only Huston Street and Alan Embree are holdovers from Opening Day. As currently constructed, the battle-of-the-bullpen-type games are the ones that place the Rockies are in most peril. Check out these numbers:

2.02. 2.01. 2.29. 3.68. 3.52.

4.60. 4.91. 10.13. 7.08. 1.39.

The top line are the ERAs of the first five Dodgers used in the bullpen last night, with the Rockies' respective line. Was there any reason to suspect we could pull it out? Our pen certainly performed better than expected, allowing just two runs in five plus innings - on a 2-run HR that was a decent pitch by Joel Peralta, on his 39th pitch to boot. The loss was in fact completely on the offense - the bullpen absolutely did their job.

Even then, their performance was ulcer-inducing after a flat scary weekend in Oakland. Only Peralta had a perfect inning last night, and a Dodger reached scoring position in every inning except Peralta's perfect 11th.

Unfortunately, the bullpen's issues cannot be just contained within the bullpen. Jim Tracy has already shown a preference not to lean on his pen, which means the innings have to get picked up somewhere - the starters. The Rockies' most abused starting pitcher in 2008 was Ubaldo Jimenez, ranked 44th in Baseball Prospectus' Pitcher Abuse Points. Given that he didn't miss a start, that is a notably low ranking.

Jimenez is higher up the list this year, 7th most abused in 2009. In fact, he's one slot above Tim Lincecum, by far and away last year's abuse king, and we know how much Bruce Bochy is going to have to lean on him for the Giants' playoff aspirations. Jason Marquis is 27th and Aaron Cook slips into the top 60.

I'm not sounding an alarm, but it is something to monitor. Jimenez has proved durable and elastic in his career, but that wiry frame may not hold up if leaned on too heavily. He has thrown over 100 pitches in 15 of his 16 starts (he tossed 91 in the other) and has thrown almost 44 IP in six June starts. It's not Roy Halladay-esque, but Jimenez also doesn't have the long-term evidence he can withstand such dependency.

So who can help save the day and be one of those two middle relievers? There are no relief prospects busting down the door from the minors, but Tracy Ringolsby reports that Manuel Corpas is playing catch. He hasn't thrown a bullpen session yet, though he could in the next few days. As of now, there's no timetable for his return, and I wouldn't depend on him being able to pitch through a bone chip.

Franklin Morales has pitched well recently in AAA (2-1, 1.47 ERA last 3 starts). Thomas Harding reports that Morales is being considered for a bullpen spot, and Troy Renck confirms. Since the rotation is the team's strength overall, there's no reason to disrupt it for Morales, who still hasn't done anything to prove he can outperform Jorge de la Rosa.

There are no current rumors connected to the Rockies and acquiring a reliever outside the organization, but the bullpen as currently constructed is the biggest threat to derailing the Rockies' post-season dreams.

Other Rockies Notes

For now, Atkins first choice to play third: The Player of the Week honors for Ian Stewart only go so far. He has struggled lately, so Garrett Atkins is our starting third baseman once again. It will be at least a chance to showcase Atkins, whom the Mets have called about.

Spilborghs finds longball success off left-handers: Spilly shows why he would be starting against left handed starters. Given the glut of talented outfielders on the roster, that probably should be where he gets 90+% of his starts.

Tracy thriving in third managerial stint - FOX Sports on MSN
Tracy Ringolsby brings some national attention to Jim Tracy's influence on the Rockies in his latest FOXSports piece.

Troy Renck posted his latest Mailbag in which he states "it would be the upset of the century if Tracy doesn't land the job full time [in 2010] given how the Rockies have responded under his watch." That might be a bit premature and dramatic, but he's probably right.

Saunders: Dealing Dan now holds aces: Patrick Saunders touches on many thoughts, one of which being the Matt Holliday trade, which he calls a "masterstroke."

Off the Map Notes

Using HITf/x to measure skill -- The Hardball Times: The Hardball Times' Peter Jensen just posted an in depth article on how to use HITf/x to measure a hitter's skill. I highly recommend the read if it's a lazy day. Also, Brad Hawpe makes the list as the 10th "luckiest" MLB hitter, while Aaron Cook is MLB's 7th most "unlucky" starter.

A Minor Slugfest | FanGraphs Baseball
The Mariners and Padres can't hit, but their High-A clubs can. The two teams combined for 51 runs on 58 hits in a single game.