SB Nation - Jacoby Ellsbury

DiamondView: 2009 Boston Red Sox

Tommy Bennett — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 15:00:20 -0000

The DiamondView series rolls on, and as promised, we will proceed division-by-division in reverse standings order. We covered the Yankees over the weekend; for more details please review that article. This time out, our graphical high vizier Justin Bopp has added the positional average as a transparency to each image. Please provide feedback, as we will continue to improve this series.

Next, we'll cover the second place (and wild card winning) Boston Red Sox.

1B Kevin Youkilis

The Greek God of Walks was as true to his name this year as ever. He combined his renowned patience with his newfound (as of 2008) power. A two corner player, Youkilis can also pick it at first. His biggest weakness is his base running, but as the lovely transparency shows, he flies past his one-sacker peers. Fun fact: his OPS has never declined from one season to the next during his major league career.

2B Dustin Pedroia

Dustin Pedroia is significantly better than the average second baseman as a fielder and at getting on base. As a base runner and as a hitter for power, he is merely average. Luckily, the two things at which he excels are more valuable than the two things at which he is pedestrian. I'll have you know I spent the last several minutes resisting portmanteau: Pedroiestrian.

3B Mike Lowell

When you park-effect away the hitting skills, Lowell is pretty badly exposed as a regular, especially on a first-division club. You can hardly blame the Red Sox for trying to move him, though you can certainly blame his injuries for their failure to do so. 2010 might be an adventure out there, particularly if surgery chips away at Lowell's power, clearly his only remaining asset.

C Jason Varitek

Don't let the fielding fool you (we're still using a position average figure for catchers), Varitek is no good. While he may be pretty decent at blocking the ball, he has few other baseball-related virtues. His power doesn't quite offset his poor on-base skills, and his base running is in hide-the-women-and-children territory. There just isn't much left in his tank.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury

The man who just wanted to buy the world a taco will also help you find the north star. There are plenty of people ready to throw out 2009's UZR data for the Red Sox, but wouldn't it be safer to assume that Ellsbury is neither an above-average fielder nor a terrible one? His power may yet develop, but as a college guy (I see you, Beavers fans) he's already 26. On the plus side, on-base skills can be tough to teach, and Ellsbury's already pacing the competition in that department.

LF Jason Bay

Bay is a good hitter. That does not mean we should throw out all UZR data from LF at Fenway simply because the last two guys to man the position have come up wretched. Even if I were prepared to do such a thing, why accept Drew's numbers while rejecting Bay's? Ought we declare a total mulligan on Fenway defensive statistics? Or should we simply temper them toward average slightly? Post hoc modifications are the bugaboo of even the greatest minds, but I'm not buying it in this case.

RF J.D. Drew

There are bad reasons to hate J.D. Drew and there are good reasons to hate J.D. Drew. But it turns out there are reasons to like J.D. Drew as well (I know, I'm as shocked as you are). That chart above ought to shame all but the most diehard haters on Broad Street (plus Tony LaRussa), but you and I both know it won't.

I guess he doesn't run well? See, it just sounds petty when you say it like that.

SS Nick Green

Here at Beyond the Box Score, we stick to our guns. Since Nick Green had the most PA of any shortstop in Boston, he--and only he--gets a chart. It's not pretty, but it does show you why Nick Green might hang around as a Quad-A utility guy for a few more years.

Next up: Tampa Bay Rays

The 2009 Off Season's Impact On The Future

ltrain2 — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 13:04:42 -0000

by Elise Amendola - AP

Boston Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein, right, and manager Terry Francona are concerned with much more than just the matters related to 2010's team.

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The Red Sox, beleaguered by talks of a 'bridge period' earlier this off season, caught fans slightly by surprise with their recent flurry of activity within the MLB's Hot Stove Market. Marco Scutaro's arrival in Boston may not have warranted much commotion given the nature of his contract (the length in particular), but the lucrative 5-year deal awarded to pitcher John Lackey has some questioning the exact direction that general manager Theo Epstein is taking the club and the future of pitcher Josh Beckett in particular.

After a very quiet beginning to the Winter Meetings, the Red Sox designated nearly $25 million for next season's payroll with the additions of Mike Cameron and John Lackey alone, moves that will certainly effect those that subsequently follow -- both this season as well as the next.

What does this mean for the likes of Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez, both with expiring contracts, especially considering the addition of Lackey and the potential free-agency of catcher Joe Mauer? With over $50 million in expiring contracts coming off the books following this season, how will management approach the free-agent class of 2010, considered by many to be one of the deepest of its kind in relation to available impact players? If this season is still considered a bridge to the future, then what can fans expect to see from the front office at this time next year?

At the moment, Boston's payroll is hovering around the $170 million dollar mark for the 2010 season (which includes the money owed to former shortstop Julio Lugo). The following players are in the final year of their current contracts; David Ortiz, Mike Lowell, Josh Beckett, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek, and Julio Lugo -- contracts that total $55 million. Assuming that Boston doesn't restructure any of the deals involving the aforementioned players, that gives management a large sum of financial freedom to address the incoming class of free-agents, a group that boasts talent trumping that which is offered in this year's crop.

Many have likened the situation to that which resulted in the Red Sox's 2007 World Series Championship. Prior to that season Epstein spent nearly $210 million ($209.1 to be exact) in acquiring J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo, and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Again, with the assumption that none of the following players are awarded new deals during the upcoming season, here's a look at the free-agent class of 2010: Joe Mauer, Carl Crawford, Lance Berkman, Cliff Lee, Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Carlos Pena, Brandon Webb, Jayson Werth. It's a safe bet that someone like Jeter will be retained by the Yankees, but even that scenario leaves a slew of All-Star caliber talent available for the taking.

Similar to last season when the Yankees cleared themselves of nearly $70 million in contractual commitments that led to the signings of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira, and ultimately a World Series Championship, Boston will find themselves in a very enviable position heading into next year's Hot Stove action.

It's a safe bet that Boston decides to let the contracts of Varitek and Lowell expire, but what about Josh Beckett and Victor Martinez?

After the signing of John Lackey, Theo Epstein immediately sent a text message assuring Josh Beckett that the addition of Lackey will in no way effect Boston's interest in re-signing him. However, we've seen this before, and nobody can blame Beckett for remaining skeptical regardless of how convincing Epstein may have appeared. After acquiring Curt Schilling in 2003, management sent a similar message to then staff-ace Pedro Martinez, who also found himself entering a contract year at that time. Martinez was not a member of the Red Sox in 2005 as management was never able to work out a deal to retain the right-hander, leading many to question Beckett's future in Boston. John Lackey received a 5-year deal worth $82.5 million dollars this off-season, raising speculation as to how serious the team is about keeping Beckett. It's hard to ignore the likenesses between Lackey and Beckett as pitchers, and with Lackey receiving a contract similar to that which Beckett is expected to command; did Boston simply sign Lackey to replace Beckett upon his departure? The situation is eerily similar to that which led to the end of the 'Pedro era' in Boston.

Victor Martinez is considered a very valuable commodity amongst the Red Sox's lineup. Martinez's ability to play both catcher and first base at a high level makes him just that much more appealing to the Red Sox, who currently owe him just under $8 million this season, making him widely considered one of the best bargains in baseball. However, there has been a lot of discussion recently surrounding the potential trading of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox by the San Diego Padres. If that happens, how will it effect the way in which Boston approaches Martinez's expiring contract? With the versatile slugger likely to command big money in the open market, will Theo then shift his focus to Joe Mauer, assuming that he isn't re-signed by Minnesota this season? With Gonzalez coming to Boston in this scenario, Martinez's ability to play first base becomes less relevant in relation to addressing the team's need for a catcher. It's no secret that Theo loves the type of player that Mauer embodies, and with good reason, as Mauer is regarded as one of the best all-around talents in baseball. Martinez is an ample catcher, but Mauer is a great one. Couple that with the upgrade that Mauer would represent offensively as opposed to V-Mart and it's not a stretch to assume that the Red Sox would rather utilize a good sum of that newly available $55 million on the former MVP/All-Star/Batting Champion/Gold Glover [Mauer].

On the other hand, it's worth mentioning that there has been some speculation that the Red Sox may plan to invest in both Martinez and Mauer, shifting Victor to first base and affording them a more than acceptable option behind the plate on days that they would decide to rest Mauer. Obviously this scenario becomes more likely in the event that Adrian Gonzalez is not acquired via trade.

Another key element that makes Martinez less of a necessity is the availability of Lance Berkman and Carlos Pena next off season, both viable options to fill the void at first base in the event that Boston is unable to retain Martinez. Similarly, Beckett's contract demands may become less appealing given the pending free-agent status' of pitchers Cliff Lee and Brandon Webb and the newly acquired Lackey.

Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz may also find their time in Boston heavily influenced by the free-agent class of 2010 and the moves made to this point in 2009. Both players have been mentioned in discussions surrounding potential trade scenarios involving Adrian Gonzalez. Does Ellsbury become more expendable with Werth and Crawford being available next season, as well as the recent signing of Mike Cameron? Does Buchholz become easier to part with given the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman and the potential free-agency of both Lee and Webb?

Every move that management makes from here on out must be calculated and will be heavily dependent on other deals that are or are not completed. For instance -- the addition of Lackey aside, even the situation at the catcher position effects the likelihood that starting pitcher Josh Beckett remains with the Red Sox.

Joe Mauer is believed to be in line to receive one of largest contracts in baseball history from whomever he decides to sign with. Therefore, if Martinez opts to explore free-agency and Boston decides to make a push for Mauer, it becomes less likely that they do so successfully while still being able to afford Beckett. Again, John Lackey's signing plays a major role in this as well. It's easier to let Beckett go and pursue Mauer with Lackey locked up for five seasons, and harder to justify retaining Beckett with the same thing in mind.

Going full-circle, it's easier to let Martinez walk with the addition of Gonzalez. In the event that Gonzalez is acquired, it becomes more feasible that Boston goes after Mauer, letting Martinez go and possibly making a concerted effort to retain Beckett.

It is still my belief that the Red Sox are pushing hard to acquire Adrian Gonzalez. In a previous article listed here, I explain that the Red Sox's moves to this point lead me to believe that Gonzalez is the most important player currently on Boston's radar. For one, signing Aroldis Chapman could help justify trading a young pitcher like Buchholz. Also, given the Red Sox's payroll commitments for 2010 and their still-glaring need to acquire a power-hitting corner infielder, the friendly nature of Gonzalez's contract for the next two seasons makes him the most appealing option for Boston if they truly desire an impact player to fill that void while still remaining within the $170 million dollar payroll goal set by Epstein.

However, the Gonzalez trade would be a blockbuster-type deal and is anything but a certainty. In the event that no progress is made in relation to Gonzalez, I think that Boston will shift their attention away from Beckett for the time being and make Victor Martinez their primary focus this season in terms of restructuring any of the expiring contracts. Talks with Martinez will likely correspond with the progress made by Minnesota in retaining Mauer. If it appears that Mauer will re-sign, Martinez should become priority number one in Boston. In the event that Mauer and the Twins cannot find common ground, the Red Sox will assess how badly they want to pursue Mauer, whether it be via trade or during the 2010 off season.

The point being that the signing of John Lackey, as well as any move made from this point on, does more than impact the future of Josh Beckett and the outlook of next year's club. Each move shifts the potential makeup of the roster for years to come. The job of a general manager is one of the most stress-inducing positions in sports for a reason and is not for short-sighted individuals. You can bet that Theo Epstein and the rest of the front office are making every move during the course of this off season with the next one in the back of their minds.

Poll

Who will most likely be a member of the Boston Red Sox in 2011?

Fantasy Baseball: Raygu's MDC Mock Draft Results

raygu — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 20:00:28 -0000

by Mark J. Terrill - AP

about 1 month ago: FILE - In this Oct. 8, 2009, file photo, St. Louis Cardinals' Albert Pujols hits a single during the sixth inning of Game 2 of the National League division baseball series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in Los Angeles. Pujols was unanimously voted National League MVP on Tuesday, Nov. 24, 2009, becoming the baseball first player to repeat since Barry Bonds won four in a row from 2001-04. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill, File)

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I participated, I use that term loosely, in a 12 Team Mixed League mock draft over at Mock Draft Central on Monday night. I missed alot of my picks because I was busy following the Roy Halladay trade rumors. But I made sure I made my fist three picks, as I was picking from the first position.

Here is how the first two rounds went:

R1 P1 Albert Pujols

R1 P2 Hanley Ramirez

R1 P3 Chase Utley

R1 P4 Alex Rodriguez

R1 P5 Ryan Braun

R1 P6 Mark Teixeira

R1 P7 Tim Lincecum

R1 P8 Matt Kemp

R1 P9 Prince Fielder

R1 P10 Miguel Cabrera

R1 P11 Evan Longoria

R1 P12 David Wright

The second round is after the jump:

R2 P1 Ian Kinsler

R2 P2 Justin Morneau

R2 P3 Ryan Howard

R2 P4 Joe Mauer

R2 P5 Carl Crawford

R2 P6 Grady Sizemore

R2 P7 Jacoby Ellsbury

R2 P8 Mark Reynolds

R2 P9 Jason Bay

R2 P10 Troy Tulowitzki

R2 P11 Zack Greinke

R2 P12 Justin Upton

With the first pick in round 3 I selected Matt Holliday.

I was surprised Upton and Holliday were still available that late in round 2.

Poll

What is more shcoking about Raygu's mock draft?

Everybody Welcome Mike Cameron to the Red Sox Family

wolf9309 — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 17:41:46 -0000

In the first of two press conferences on Yawkey way today, the Red Sox welcomed outfielder Mike Cameron to the family.

With almost childlike excitement, Cameron, at the age of 36 still known for being one of the best defensive Center Fielders in the game, joined Theo Epstein and Terry Francona to discuss his role on the team.

Now I didn't manage to watch the whole press conference, I tuned in about halfway through it, so I'm sure I missed some good bits here, and would love anyone who did catch it to chime in with any other information they thought was useful.

The first and biggest thing that I noticed were that a lot of questions centered around where Cameron was going to play in the field- this has been a question here, with some people thinking he will be in left so that the Sox give Jacoby Ellsbury time to develop in center, and other people thinking it is vital to shore up the defense now, moving Ells to left and keeping Cameron in center.

Theo Epstein seemed somewhat non-commital, saying that he knows that Cameron plays great Center field and would also be capable of his plus defense all throughout the outfield.

Cameron himself was a little less reserved, saying that he certainly could take his skills to the corners and use what he has learned at center there, but also saying that he is looking forward to bringing his center field abilities over to the Red Sox. The other thing he was very unreserved about was he wants to win- he is here to win and he is going to play his hardest.

Personally, I would like to see something like they did with Coco Crisp when he and Ells were both around- keep Ells in left when Cameron is in the lineup, and if he gets a day off, move Ellsbury over to center and have Hermida come into left. This will give Ellsbury some chance to develop his skills as a center fielder- and with Cameron's veteran tutelage, while dramatically improving our defense in 2010.

One other thing worth mentioning was that Theo wouldn't specifically say that they were shutting the door on Bay, however did state that whichever team gets him will be getting a great ballplayer.

Remember, if you're on the internet but not a TV, you can still catch John Lackey's press conference live at www.MLB.com/LIVE. I may have to be off working, but I hopefully will be able to catch it, and if not, I look forward to everyone's thoughts on it.

Poll

Where do you think Cameron should play in 2010?

Top Moments '09: No. 9 - The Roller Coaster Ride At Fenway

ltrain2 — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 12:00:18 -0000

Mike Lowell celebrating his game winning 3-run home run against the New York Yankees 04/25/09.

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OTM COVERAGE: 0157H7's postgame recap of the Red Sox's memorable moment #9 of 2009
GAME RECAP: 4/25/09: New York Yankees 11 Boston Red Sox 16

What list of this nature would be complete without a good old fashioned Yankees vs. Red Sox matchup? And how can it get any better than a game featuring 27 total runs scored, a six-RBI night from the recently departed Mike Lowell, five lead changes (the last of course being the best), and a battering of newly acquired Yankees pitcher A.J. Burnett?

Yes this game had it all, ultimately resulting in what was Boston's ninth straight win at the time -- second straight over the struggling Yankees (Boston would go on to sweep New York in the 3-game set at Fenway).

The Yankees began a night that was initially billed as a pitcher's duel between former Florida Marlins teammates Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett by jumping out to a 6-0 lead in the top half of the 4th inning, thanks in large part to Robinson Cano, who blasted a 2-run home run in the third frame and followed that up with a 2-run double in the fourth (both at the hands of Beckett) to produce the Sox's 6-run deficit.

However, the Sox's bats wouldn't let the Yankees off the hook that easy, something that became the theme of the night when everything was said and done.

Boston's offense awoke from their early game slumber in a big way during their half of the fourth inning. After Pedroia, Youkilis, and Drew filled up the bases, Jason Bay got the scoring started with an RBI single. Varitek wasted no time in continuing the onslaught slugging a grand-slam off of a now visably shaken Burnett.

Beckett settled, albiet temporarily, in the fifth by tossing a scoreless frame (quite the feat on this particular night). Burnett's half of the inning, however, failed to go as smoothly. Jacoby Ellsbury homered to right field to erase the once six run lead even quicker than it was created. With the score knotted at six runs a piece, Bay again came through big, this time knocking a double that plated both David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis. Somehow, after being down 6-0, the Sox found themselves up 8-6 heading into the sixth inning. Believe it or not, it gets even more ridiculous from here.

In possibly the worst way possible, the Yankees managed to tie the game at 8-8 in the top half of the sixth. Once iconic Red Sox outfielder Johnny Damon homered scoring Yankees captain Derek Jeter, quickly destroying the small lead that Boston had worked so hard for. Without recording an out in the sixth, Beckett's night was finished. Final line: Ugly.

Boston would again grab hold of the lead in their half of the sixth following a David Ortiz sacrifice fly that scored Nick Green. Heading into the seventh inning: Yankees 8 Red Sox 9.

By this point, you should be able to guess what happens next. If you guessed that there would be yet another lead change, then it's safe to assume that you've been doing a bang-up job paying attention so far. Good work. This time, the Yankees' runs came via a rare error from second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Berroa and Gardner both scored as a result of the play as the Sox handed the lead back to New York, 10-9.

With the star of the previous game Jason Bay standing at the plate in the seventh, the Yankees decided to intentionally walk him and take their chances with Mike Lowell. Not the right move on this night. Lowell proceded to hit a 3-run blast Over The Monster (a little self-promoting there, forgive me) giving the Red Sox a 12-10 lead. A lead that, despite the trend leading up to this point in the game, actually managed to hold up.

Cano made things interesting in the eighth by cutting the lead to one with a solo home run, his second long ball of the game, but that would be all the runs that New York would accrue on this night. Pedroia added and RBI single in the bottom of the eighth, subsequently followed by Mike Lowell's bases-clearing double, bringing us to our final score of 16-11.

Just writing this game summary has given me a splitting headache.

After the game, Bay put it best:

"It was one of the more unbelievable games I've been involved in as far as back and forth," said Red Sox left fielder Jason Bay. "It was a little bit of everything, and the bullpen again held and we got some timely hits."

Interesting facts from the Red Sox's victory over the Yankees

The six run comeback was the largest since 1968, when Boston came back after being down 9-3 to beat New York by a final score of 11-10.
Lowell started the game 0-3 with two strikeouts, stranding five baserunners, only to finish with six RBIs (the most for any Red Sox player against the Yankees since Carlton Fisk circa 1973).
The 27 total runs was tied for the fourth most scored in this rivalry at the time.
The game's two starting pitchers, Beckett and Burnett, both surrendered eight runs. The first time since 1987 that both starters in a Yankee-Red Sox matchup allowed eight or more runs. The two that accomplished the feat prior to this game? Tommy John and Roger Clemens.
Mark Teixeira became the first Yankee to register five walks in a game since Roger Maris did it back in 1962.
A total of twelve pitchers threw a combined 385 pitches, managing to retire the side in order just twice (once for each team).
The 4 hours and 21 minutes that it took to complete this game is tied for the sixth-longest non-extra inning affair in baseball history. The top two on that list belonging to, of course, the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry.

John Lackey's Signing: The Potential Ripple Effect

ltrain2 — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:38:24 -0000

More photos » by David Zalubowski - AP

Is Adrian Gonzalez, pictured here, the next big name acquisition to be announced by the Boston Red Sox following the recent signing of free agent pitcher John Lackey?

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In what can surely be considered an understatement; the Red Sox's recent off-season activity has the Major League Baseball community buzzing, namely the population that makes up 'Red Sox Nation.'

On Monday, following reports that discussions surrounding re-signing Jason Bay had soured, the Red Sox proceeded to sign the top available starting pitcher via free agency, John Lackey, to a 5-year deal. The arrival of the former Angels' ace in Boston has been dissected in a bevy of ways since news broke earlier today by nearly every media outlet, each offering their own unique opinion on the situation. Some suggest that Lackey represents a reallocation of the funds originally intended for Bay. However, I don't believe that there is enough emphasis being placed on the big picture as a result of the acquisition, and the subsequent sequence of events that may potentially follow.

While some may argue that because Jason Bay is no longer an option, the Red Sox may have simply taken their money and invested in another big ticket free agent instead. If that were the case, wouldn't it have been more intelligent to focus on someone like Matt Holliday or Adrian Beltre to help fill the holes that Boston has both defensively and offensively, rather than acquire a starting pitcher? While there's no denying that the depth in regards to the starting rotation was a point of emphasis for management heading into the off-season, it seems rather narrow-minded to use such a large sum of financial resources to fill that void while continuing to ignore the ones at third base and left field.

Is it possible that Mike Cameron is set to be Jason Bay's replacement, especially given the defensive upgrade he represents, and that they simply used the money that they saved by not going after Matt Holliday on the combination of Cameron and Lackey? Sure, it's not a farfetched theory by any means. However, after much deliberation on the topic, I have come to the conclusion that there may be more to the Red Sox's recent acquisitions than what is evident on the surface.

One piece of information that slipped through the cracks today, which is understandable given the more notable moves made, is that the Red Sox made a two year contract offer reportedly worth $15 million dollars to left-handed Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. Chapman, a 21 year-old starting pitcher with a fastball that consistently touches triple-digits, could offer a bit of foreshadowing into the Red Sox's plan of action in relation to their void at third base.

The $80-85 million dollar contract awarded to Lackey is what originally made me look into the potential reasoning behind extending $15 million to Chapman who, like Lackey, is a starting pitcher. No, Chapman would not likely be added to the MLB-level rotation come opening day, but there are still some flags being raised by Boston's pursuit of the young talent. Why continue attempting to accrue starting pitching depth with a hole still evident at not only the third base position, but in the lineup as well?

Consider this; the addition of Lackey now gives Boston six viable options for their rotation, as it stands now, heading into 2010. With Beckett, Lester, Lackey, Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Wakefield, a once seemingly questionable rotation has become more than formidable, arguably the best in baseball. Where does extending a $15 million dollar contract to a young, unproven, prospect-type pitcher make sense given the Red Sox's glaring needs elsewhere?

It would not only make sense, but it would actually appear rather brilliant in its creativeness, if the plan of action was to turn around and begin shopping the attractive young talent that is Clay Buchholz. Buchholz, known for his devastating arsenal of off-speed pitches as well as his limitless potential, seemingly finds himself immersed in nearly every trade discussion involving the Red Sox the last few years. So why stop now?

One reason that Theo Epstein has been reluctant to move Buchholz to this point is that it is difficult to find a young starting pitcher with that much potential without having to develop internally, as they did with Clay. This is where Aroldis Chapman becomes relevant to this discussion.

Matt Holliday had been the center of rumors regarding the Red Sox's planned route in the event that Bay could not be retained. However, recent reports (especially coming from Holliday's agent, Scott Boras) suggest that signing Holliday would require a deal exceeding that in which Jason Bay is commanding at the present time. Boras has been rather vocal in his opinion that Holliday is a more valuable asset than Bay to an interested team. Having said that, and assuming that Adrian Beltre is now out of this off-season's budget limit, it's hard to imagine that the Red Sox are left with many options to plug third base via free agency. It's also safe to assume that management is left unsatisfied with Cameron replacing Bay if it means that someone like Casey Kotchman is going to take over the first base duties, with Youkilis moving to third base in this scenario (also making the assumption that moving Varitek back behind the plate full-time, while shifting Youkilis to third and Victor Martinez to first, is not a realistic option).

All of this leads me to believe that the Red Sox next plan of action is to begin gauging interest from teams regarding the aforementioned Clay Buchholz.

With the potential signing of Aroldis Chapman, moving Clay Buchholz could become more justifiable to the Red Sox. Essentially, the Chapman signing may simply be a case of replacing one young pitching prospect with another, allowing Boston to utilize Buchholz's trade-appeal and acquire the corner infield-bat that they so desperately need.

San Diego could potentially be a player in any discussion pertaining to Buchholz. The Red Sox have discussed the availability of first baseman Adrian Gonzalez with the Padres recently, but to no avail, citing Boston's hesitation to move Buchholz as a main reason. Reports, prior to the Lackey signing, made it appear as though no progress was being made on that front. Padres general manager Jed Hoyer reportedly requested a combination of Buchholz and either Casey Kelly (a pitching prospect widely considered untouchable in such discussions) or outfielder Ryan Westmoreland.

One interesting aspect of negotiations is that Jason McLeod, a former Red Sox scouting director, is now employed by Hoyer. It has been said that both have a detailed understanding and admiration of the Boston system.

While the Red Sox still expected to retain Jason Bay, it was understandable for Epstein to be adverse to the idea of unloading Buchholz, especially given his opinion that the rotation (even with Buchholz) lacked depth. Also, because Bay was still an option at that point, the need for an offensive upgrade was slightly less glaring. With Bay and Holliday now out of the mix, and the potential signings of both Lackey and Chapman, the attention has to be redirected back to the original need for offense at one of the corner infield spots left vacant by Mike Lowell's departure (still pending). A platoon of Mike Cameron and Jeremy Hermida is probably not the caliber of replacement in left field that Boston entered the off-season with in mind, but acquiring someone such as Adrian Gonzalez would have to help alleviate any concerns regarding offensive potency that may still linger.

As I implied earlier, San Diego is very interested in Clay Buchholz, even going as far as insisting his presence in any potential package offered by Boston. If Chapman is signed, Buchholz immediately becomes more expendable, and Gonzalez that much more appealing. Boston's interest in Chapman has been evident for some time, is it possible now that his addition could represent the subtraction of Buchholz? Clay's availability has to increase exponentially in the event that the Red Sox land Chapman.

It is starting to appear as though Theo Epstein has been underestimated in his approach this off-season all along. His lack of activity seems to have directly corresponded with the progress made in re-signing Bay. As soon as the discussions began to break down, Theo started making moves. My feeling is that he has had this plan in his back pocket the whole time he was in talks with Bay and his representatives, and is only now beginning to deploy it.

One fact remains certain, Boston's needs a power-hitter to compliment their lineup following the departure of Jason Bay. With Cameron and Hermida joining J.D. Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury, completing a respectable core of outfielders, the most obvious place to fill that void remains at one of the corner infield spots.

It's hard to imagine a better solution than someone like Adrian Gonzalez.

How Does Jacoby Ellsbury Fit Into This Offseason Puzzle?

Ben Buchanan — Fri, 11 Dec 2009 22:07:49 -0000

More photos » by Nick Wass - AP

4 months ago: Boston Red Sox center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury dives unsuccessfully for a fly ball hit for a single by Baltimore Orioles' Aubrey Huff during the second inning of a baseball game, Friday, July 31, 2009, in Baltimore. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

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Many observers of the Red Sox this offseason have pegged them as a team on the hunt for defense. This is not an outrageous claim—last year the Red Sox ranked 16^th in the league defensively by UZR, with notable deficiencies at 3^rd (second worst in the league), center field (worst in the league), and left field (6^th worst in the league). Between the 3 main starters at these positions, the Red Sox gave up over 40 runs more than they would have by inserting replacement-level defenders at the position.

So far, though, one has to question just how well Theo and co. are doing at achieving their goals. The only major signing of the postseason so far has been Marco Scutaro. Talk all you want about consistency or stability at the position, but last year the revolving door of shortstops did combine to post a slightly positive UZR—better than Marco Scutaro has put up in 2 of his past 3 years.

Theo's most compelling move on this front has yet to even happen yet. By shipping Mike Lowell and his awful defense to Texas, the Sox are almost assuring themselves an improvement at 3^rd base. If, as many expect, they were to sign Adrian Beltre, the improvement would be astronomical. Exchanging a whole year of Lowell at 3^rd for a whole year of Beltre should be worth a net gain of over 20 defensive runs. Of course, the wisdom of signing Beltre lies largely in his offense, and how much they can avoid the Scott Boras overpay. But that's a story for another article.

The real question has to be the outfield. If rumors are to be believed, then Theo would be perfectly content to go into 2010 fielding the same starters as he did in 2009. Can a team that claims to be focused on defense really accept two fielders who aren't just not good, but in fact at the bottom of the barrel?

Now, left field in Fenway is always going to be something of an anomaly. If you're going to sacrifice defense for offense anywhere, it may as well be somewhere where the only fly ball going over the defenders head are either bouncing off the wall or going for 4 bases. This isn't to say that Jason Bay is a victim of the Monster—he was no great fielder in his last season-and-a-half in Pittsburgh either—just that any defensive considerations in left have to take a backseat to offense. No, the main concern is in center field.

For all the world, Jacoby Ellsbury looks like he's a defensive star. His diving grabs make regular appearances on top-10 lists, he has speed enough to cover the large territory in center, and he's not prone to careless drops or tragic misplays. And yet, advanced defensive metrics will tell you that he is in fact the single worst center fielder in the majors. Observing the young speedster in action will reveal that the reason behind this—as has been discussed so many times before—is that he gets bad breaks on balls, often having to completely reverse direction after the ball is in the air, costing him valuable time and wasting much of his speed and glove.

Perhaps Theo and the front office expect Ellsbury to improve his reads next year. Maybe they think he was just off in 2009, and that he'll be back strong in 2010. But if not, what are they doing? It's puzzling why the Sox would claim to focus on defense, and then ignore their single biggest defensive problem. Especially with viable options out there. The Detroit Tigers actually crafted a seemingly perfect solution for the Sox, offering them a 1-for-1 deal: Ellsbury for Curtis Granderson, who would have been a huge defensive improvement with similar offensive production (or superior if he rebounds, as his low BABIP would predict). Even now, Mike Cameron is an available free agent. A switch from Ellsbury to Cameron last year would have been worth more than 20 runs! And with two center field prospects in Reddick and Kalish projected to be ready within the next 2 years, Cameron's age would not be an issue. And, if the Granderson offer is any indication, Ellsbury still has plenty of trade value depending on the GM and their adherence to the new statistics.

I expect I'll get plenty of disagreement on this. Whether from the anti-UZR crowd, the steal-obsessed, or the legions of young girls who have proposed marriage to Jacoby—even if only by means of cardboard sign. But this is how our front office works. It puts importance on the stats that reflect poorly on Ellsbury, and consider things like steals to be relatively unimportant. Maybe they know something we don't, but if not, then their silence on this front is both very odd, and very worrying.

Winter Meetings, Day Two Recap: A Slow Day For Red Sox

Randy Booth — Wed, 09 Dec 2009 11:00:28 -0000

by Steven Senne - AP

This photo is no way related to the winter meetings ... except it's Theo. That's the only relation. So it works.

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Remarkably, day two was even slower than day one.

Just get Theo's take on it:

"Yesterday was probably more productive than today," Epstein said. "Today has been more of a day of follow-up on the ideas of yesterday and we haven't made a heck of a lot of progress. We're still working at it."

After the jump, I'll update you on some of the happenings.

ALL THE RUMBLIN' ('CAUSE THERE JUST WASN'T MUCH PERIOD)

Full Count " Red Sox claim the ‘other’ Ramon Ramirez

Another pitcher named Ramon Ramirez (potentially) in the Red Sox system. How fun!

Tigers wanted Ellsbury or Buchholz

If the Sox were to acquire Curtis Granderson, it would have taken Jacoby Ellsbury or Clay Buchholz. And we can all say "no thank you" at the same time.

Jason Bay Rumors: Tuesday: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

Your guess is as good as anyone's when it comes to where Jason Bay will land before 2010. The Mariners seem to have no interest in the slugger while the Angels consider themselves "longshots." The Red Sox, still, no matter how hard some people on this blog try, are in talks with Bay.

Texas Rangers Blog - A quick wrapup from Tuesday - ESPN Dallas

The Rangers have shown interest in acquiring Mike Lowell. Really? I didn't think they wanted another poor defensive third baseman. One tends to be enough. However, it all seems like a longshot.

Boston Herald's Silverman on Sox's interest in Soriano

In other trade news, Rafael Soriano, after accepting arbitration, is willing to be traded. However, it doesn't seem the Sox are interested in trading for Soriano. If he was a free agent, that would have been a different story.

Washington Nationals Sign Pudge Rodriguez. - Federal Baseball

Somehow, Pudge Rodriguez is still going. Good for him. Maybe he'll be the first pro catcher to call a sign for Stephen Strasburg.

Winter Meetings: Pirates set to sign Crosby

The were rumors that Bobby Crosby could be a Red Sox, but that was before the Marco Scutaro signing. I wish I could say "Good for the Pirates," but I think it's more fitting to say "Good for Crosby" who is still seeing time in Major League Baseball. Keep collecting that paycheck, Bob!

From Top To Bottom: Marco Scutaro In Boston's Lineup

Randy Booth — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 23:21:17 -0000

More photos » by Steven Senne - AP

20 days ago: Newly signed Boston Red Sox shortstop Marco Scutaro displays a Red Sox uniform during a news conference at Fenway Park, in Boston, Friday, Dec. 4, 2009. After cycling through seven shortstops since the middle of the 2004 season, the Red Sox announced on Friday that they have given Scutaro a two-year deal with a club option for 2012. (AP Photo/Steven Senne)

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Every single at bat that Marco Scutaro had with the Blue Jays in 2009 was in the leadoff spot. That's a pretty impressive feat considering he made 680 plate appearances.

Let that streak come to an end, though, when Scutaro's name is penciled into the Red Sox's lineup come Opening Day.

Terry Francona is a big fan of Jacoby Ellsbury. Such a big fan, in fact, that he really wants to see Ellsbury in the leadoff spot for the Red Sox for good. That's where Ellsbury started in 2009 and that's where he ended. But he wasn't there the entire time.

On May 31, Francona dropped Ellsbury from the leadoff spot to the eight-hole. His .332 on-base percentage just wasn't cutting it. After trips up and down the lineup, including in the leadoff spot on the rare occasion, Ellsbury was back at No. 1 for good on July 20. The OBP went up to .343 -- a solid 11 point increase. He finished the season with a .355 OBP -- plus 12 more points. Not too shabby.

And that is where Ellsbury is going to stay. Marco, you're going to need a new spot.

While I think it's a tad too early to talk about what the 2010 lineup should look like, you know, considering we don't even have a left fielder yet (any Jeremy Hermida supporters out there?), we can get a rough idea. Let's pretend the Red Sox sign Jason Bay or Matt Holliday. It's a crazy idea, I know, but we could figure a lineup that looks similar to this:

Ellsbury, cf
Pedroia, 2b
Martinez, c
Youkilis, 1b
Ortiz, dh
Bay/Holiday, lf
Lowell, 3b
Drew, rf
Scutaro, ss

This is a lineup that's pretty interchangeable. One through three is locked, but Youkilis, Ortiz and Bay could all be flip-flopped if Tito wanted. Lowell and Drew is also a toss up, but historically Tito likes to bat Lowell ahead of Drew.

So it's not a real mystery: Scutaro goes from leadoff man to No. 9 hitter. It's not that he's a bad hitter, it's just that this is the only place for him. Except, well, when Jason Varitek is in the lineup. Then expect to see Scutaro bat eighth.

Scutaro will also likely "spell" Ellsbury in the leadoff spot when he has his days off. I think Francona would be more willing to do that than move Pedroia or Drew to leadoff. Hopefully that's the case. I love Pedroia and Drew, but both, in my opinion, seem to do better in the two-hole.

I like Scutaro in the 9-hole, though. He's the "second leadoff man," as some people like to say. It's a good OBP to have at the bottom of the order, if he produces anywhere near Bill James's prediction of .350. If Scutaro gets on and Ellsbury can't hit him around, Pedroia, Martinez and Youkilis will have their shots. I can see Scutaro scoring a lot of runs this season.

Speaking of hitting, I'll probably dissect this in its own post, but I expect a lot of doubles out of Scutaro in 2010. He had 35 with the Jays last year. With The Monster so close, I think Scutaro could be a rack in 40-50 doubles if he plays 150+ games. I'll take that.

Where do you see Scutaro in the Red Sox's lineup?

Poll

On a typical night, where will Marco Scutaro hit in the Red Sox's lineup?

No. 9 -- no better place to put him

320 votes

No. 8 -- Francona will surprise us a bit

116 votes

No. 1 -- Francona will REALLY surprise us

62 votes

498 votes | Poll has closed

Rival Hot Stoves: Red Sox

jscape2000 — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 16:00:31 -0000

by Stew Milne - AP

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The Red Sox are chasing the Yankees again, and once again both front offices are looking at the same assets.

1. The Lineup Right Now:

Martinez

Youkilis

Pedroia

Lowell

Lowrie

Anderson

Ellsbury

Drew

Ortiz

Beckett

Lester

Matsuzaka

Wakefield

Buchholz

Bard

Okajima

Ramirez

Papelbon

2. Prospects to Watch:

Josh Reddick- an outfielder with the speed to play all 3 spots, Reddick's bat didn't perform well in his September call up. HIs high batting average has carried him quickly through the minors (only 18 games at AAA and less than 90 games at AA). He's a see it- hit it type, and I wonder if his defense is strong enough to make Jacoby Ellsbury a trade chip in the quest for a certain high profile pitcher from North of the Border.

Michael Bowden- the 23 year old compares to IPK- high 80s to low 90s fastball, plus command of fastball and curve. He saw 16 innings of work in Boston (8G, 1 start), be he pitched very well in AAA Pawtucket (24 starts, average 5.1IP, 106H, 44BB, 88K). As a trade chip or as the first replacement starter, Bowden is a part of the Red Sox future.

Lars Anderson- the big first baseman had a terrible season in 2009, hitting a Jose Molina-esque .233/.328/.345 in 119 games in his second year at AA. He'll need a big bounce back to put his career back on track.

Matchup with the Yankees:

Victor Martinez's defense as a full time catcher will make Posada look like Bill DIckey. The right side of the infield will stand up with anybody in the league, but the Sox suffered through a season of near replacement level on the left side, so it's no surprise that the front office has wondered if their Gold Glove 2B might not play a good enough SS to sign or trade for a strong second baseman.

At the moment the Red Sox have the stronger rotation. Adding Halladay, or adding Lackey and seeing Halladay go anywhere but New York, would make the Red Sox the AL favorites.

The Quick ReLoad:

The Red Sox took $12M off the books before the start of the 2009 season. Another $40M came off at the end of season. If Boston has only $30M to spend, that's enough to make the second best team in the AL even more imposing.

A left fielder is a must-have, but there are a slew of available left fielders, and all of them could handle the small patch of grass in the shadow of the Green Monster.

Either the Red Sox have to acquire a shortstop, or they have move Pedroia and choose from the relatively stronger crop of second basemen.

Wrap-up:

The Sox got basically nothing from Matsuzaka, and replaced his quality with Brad Penny and John Smoltz. Even if a trade for Halladay weakened the Red Sox for a decade, it would make them a frightening team to face in 2010, both over the regular season and in a playoff series.

My sincerest hope is that Theo learned nothing from his lightning in a bottle 2009 approach. Another season of Nick Green at short and Tim Wakefield as the #3 pitcher would make me a happy Yankee. My fear is that the $50M that have come off the books in the last 2 seasons is on its way back into the payroll.