SB Nation - Josh Beckett

Josh Beckett and John Lackey: Today's Schilling and Pedro

Randy Booth — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 18:00:18 -0000

More photos » by Mark J. Terrill - AP

3 months ago: Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher John Lackey throws to the plate during the first inning of a baseball game against the Oakland Athletics, Sunday, Aug. 30, 2009, in Anaheim, Calif. (AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)

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It's safe to say that the Red Sox signing John Lackey came as a surprise to the entirety of Red Sox Nation. No one saw it coming. Theo Epstein didn't even hint at it coming. He held his cards as close as possible to his chest and then threw down two aces to take the pot.

It was a bold, calculated move.

And we've all seen it before, especially here in "The Nation": bold, calculated moves put shiny rings on your fingers.

It didn't click with me right off the bat what John Lackey means to the Red Sox. Yes, he's an ace. Yes, he could be the No. 1 pitcher for almost any baseball team in the world. Yes, he has one of the highest-paid right arms in the world.

It's not that simple, though. There's so much more to Lackey as a Red Sox.

Do you remember 2004? I know it sounds like a stupid question to ask a Red Sox fan, but let me rephrase to something a little more specific. Do you remember 2003? Specifically, the end of the year? To give you an exact date, it was Nov. 23, 2003.

That was the day the Red Sox traded for Curt Schilling.

Talking about Lackey and Schilling in the same breath should stir up some similarities. Beyond the physical (both bigger guys), they are both pitchers that wanted the ball every day. Hurt or broken, it didn't matter. They're feisty pitchers. They're loud pitchers. They will say what's on their mind and slam their fastball down your throat.

That's just how they do things.

But Schilling's presence in 2004 was more than his ability on the mound. It's what he brought to the team. Namely, he brought competition. His opponent? Pedro Martinez.

From Seth Mnookin's book, Feeding The Monster:

No one was more upset by [Curt] Schilling's arrival than Pedro Martinez

[...]

For all his light-heartedness, Martinez was also driven by an irrational (and slightly contrived) fear of being disrespected and the Red Sox's pursuit and acquisition of Schilling gnawed at him. Boston, afer all, was supposed to be his town. "I can't help that they wanted to sign Schilling," Martinez said in February

[...]

Martinez's wounded pride could, potentially, have been a good thing for the Red Sox. Martinez was most effective when he felt as if he had something to prove...

[...]

With Schilling on board, Martinez wondered if the Red Sox were planning on keeping him around beyond the 2004 season, and without a contract, he was both hesitant to risk further injury and worried about giving the impression he was less than totally healthy.

Pedro, on the downward slope of his career, was pushed by Schilling. Pedro thought he was the team's ace; not Schilling. Pedro thought he was the star; not the new guy. Pedro still had a lot left to prove with the team he's been with for many years.

The same rings true for Josh Beckett.

Beckett is a lot like Pedro, Schilling and Lackey. He's a true competitor that wants to just play baseball until his arm falls off. He'll yell, scream and throw pitches at players' heads as a warning sign if that is what needs to be done. It boils down to this: he wants to prove he's great. He doesn't want anyone else to be better than him, even if it is a teammate.

The similarities between Schilling/Pedro and Lackey/Beckett are there. Schilling and Lackey came on as an ace from another team. Pedro and Beckett have been aces for the Red Sox, until the new guy shows up and wants to prove what he can do. Pedro and Beckett are also entering the last year of their contracts when the new guy shows up.

Pedro went on to have a great season in 2004 (not quite "Pedro-esque," but still a great season). Schilling and Pedro, together, went on to lead the Red Sox to their first World Series championship in 86 years. Beyond what Schilling did on the mound, do you think he had a bigger effect on that championship?

Of course there are differences between Schilling/Pedro and Lackey/Beckett. One, is that in 2004, Schilling and Pedro were better overall than Lackey/Beckett is today. Lackey and Beckett are two of the best pitchers in the majors today, but back in 2004 -- and the years prior -- Schilling and Pedro were just out of this world. We all know of Pedro's dominance, but Schilling was right there, too.

From all accounts, it seems like Beckett wants to be with the Red Sox in the future. His contract is up after this year, but Theo Epstein has already told him -- actually, texted him -- that Lackey's signing has no barring on his future. (Similar sentiments were shared with Pedro, as well.)

Lackey's presence puts a fire under Beckett's butt to perform. Both -- with Jon Lester, can't forget about him -- are going to battle to prove they are the team's ace. This, as you could already tell, should lead to good results for both the individuals and the team.

I have a good feeling this year about Lackey, Beckett and the Boston Red Sox. How are you feeling?

So Far We Are: Meet Your New Jays, Kyle Drabek

hugo — Fri, 18 Dec 2009 12:47:49 -0000

More photos » by Chuck Burton - AP

3 days ago: FILE - In this Feb. 28, 2007, file photo, Philadelphia Phillies' Kyle Drabek ptiches against Florida State during a spring training baseball game in Clearwater, Fla. Drabek was traded to the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday, Dec. 16, 2009, part of a four-team trade that sent Roy Halliday to the Phillies and Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton, File)

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The lone pitcher acquired in the Roy Halladay trade bonanza was Kyle Drabek, and he seems to have a keen sense of that already. Drabek, son of major league pitcher and former Cy Young winner Doug Drabek, was born on December 8, 1987 in Victoria, Texas. He grew up and attended high school in Texas as well, and has admitted he's not so much a disciple of Halladay as he is of fellow Texan fireballer Josh Beckett.

Drabek was drafted out of high school by the Philadelphia Phillies in the first round of the 2006 amateur player draft, the 18th overall pick in that draft. I think it's fair to say that Kyle would have gone much higher in the draft had there not been concerns about his "makeup" - specifically, events including a single-car collision in which Drabek was involved, a public intoxication charge that was later dropped, and more-than-occasional flare-ups of a fiery temper on and off the field. I'm not one to make excuses, but none of this sounds all that terrible for a 17-year old kid, particularly if such incidents are in the past, which it appears as though they are - I can't recall any such stories in the past few years - indeed, all the stories are about how far Drabek has come, on and off the mound.

Drabek was drafted for his lively fastball and his big curveball, two pitches which put him squarely in the "power pitcher" category. He didn't pitch for very long in the minors, though, before blowing out his elbow and requiring Tommy John surgery. The Phillies were concerned about how Drabek might respond and hooked him up with a career minor leaguer, Mike Zagurski, as a roomate, and the two developed a good friendship. Maybe it worked, or maybe their concerns were misplaced, because Drabek has really come along way since that surgery - altering his mechanics and working on his change-up, a crucial third pitch that Drabek admits still needs more work. Having a major-league quality change will be crucial to making Drabek's fastball as effective as it can be.

Drabek only made 8 starts in 2008, but did well in his first taste of A ball. 2009, though, was a very big year for Kyle. He pitched at advanced A and AA, making 15 starts at AA, showing why he was so well regarded coming out of the draft, and not seeming to show any lingering effects from his ligament replacement. Overall, Drabek put up a 3.19 ERA over 158 innings, actually a bit of an alarming increase from 2008 - but nice that his arm strength is at that level. He struck out 150 and walked 50 over that span, putting up very impressive K and walk rates - the walk rate is especially impressive for a young power pitcher. Drabek's MO on the mound is pretty simple - attack the zone with a first-pitch strike, typically with his fastball. When he's ahead of the hitter, he uses the curve to put them away.

It's actually quite impressive that Drabek, who is only 22, has progressed so far and so well in the minors even though he lost almost an entire season to TJ surgery. You don't do that unless you are both very talented and very dedicated. And if he can control his emotions on the mound, his power pitcher arsenal and fiery competitiveness, which the Jays love, scream front of the rotation.

Looking ahead, Drabek will begin the season in AA, and treat the fine people of the Granite State to his pitching. I don't think it's totally impossible that he could pitch in the majors this season, but it's much more likely to be next season. He stil needs work on his changeup and there's no reason to rush him. The young righty seems to have a bright career ahead of him and, while of course I'm sad to see Doc go, I'm glad it will be with the Blue Jays.

Today's title from a great song by the French Kicks.

Fantasy Baseball: 2009 xFIP Leaders and Some 2010 Sleepers

raygu — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:32:02 -0000

Recently, Fangraphs has teamed up with The Hardball Times to include the THT pitching stat called Expected Fielding Independent Pitching, or xFIP.
xFIP is Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. This is an experimental stat that adjusts and "normalizes" the home run component. Research has shown that home runs allowed are pretty much a function of flyballs allowed and home park, so xFIP is based on the average number of home runs allowed per outfield fly. <strong>Theoretically, this should be a better predicter of a pitcher's future ERA</strong>

With that said, here are the 2009 xFIP leaders:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Javier Vazquez	9.77	1.81	5.41	0.82	1.03	0.297	76.60%	2.87	2.77	2.82	0.05
Tim Lincecum	10.42	2.72	3.84	0.4	1.05	0.297	75.90%	2.48	2.34	2.87	-0.39
Roy Halladay	7.83	1.32	5.94	0.83	1.13	0.313	79.00%	2.79	3.06	3.05	-0.26
Dan Haren	8.75	1.49	5.87	1.06	1	0.28	77.00%	3.14	3.23	3.08	0.06
Jon Lester	9.96	2.83	3.52	0.89	1.23	0.323	76.90%	3.41	3.15	3.13	0.28
Zack Greinke	9.5	2	4.75	0.43	1.07	0.313	79.30%	2.16	2.33	3.15	-0.99
Justin Verlander	10.09	2.36	4.27	0.75	1.18	0.328	72.70%	3.45	2.8	3.26	0.19
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Adam Wainwright	8.19	2.55	3.21	0.66	1.21	0.309	80.40%	2.63	3.11	3.36	-0.73

Here are some sleepers for 2010 based on the difference between their 2009 ERA and xFIP:

Name	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	E-X
Ricky Nolasco	9.49	2.14	4.43	1.12	1.25	0.336	61.00%	5.06	3.35	3.28	1.78
Carl Pavano	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	0.335	66.10%	5.1	4	3.96	1.14
Livan Hernandez	5	3.28	1.52	0.93	1.56	0.326	67.30%	5.44	4.44	4.78	0.66
Cole Hamels	7.81	2	3.91	1.12	1.29	0.325	72.10%	4.32	3.72	3.69	0.63
Jorge de la Rosa	9.39	4.04	2.33	0.97	1.38	0.316	71.60%	4.38	3.91	3.76	0.62
Jason Hammel	6.78	2.14	3.17	0.87	1.39	0.337	69.50%	4.33	3.71	3.81	0.52
Mike Pelfrey	5.22	3.22	1.62	0.88	1.51	0.321	66.70%	5.03	4.39	4.52	0.51
Josh Beckett	8.43	2.33	3.62	1.06	1.19	0.302	71.60%	3.86	3.63	3.35	0.51
Derek Lowe	5.13	2.91	1.76	0.74	1.52	0.33	68.70%	4.67	4.06	4.19	0.48
Brett Anderson	7.7	2.31	3.33	1.03	1.28	0.317	67.00%	4.06	3.69	3.61	0.45

You can see there is a correlation between high BABIP, low LOB% and the E-X column. The E-X column takes the difference between the putcher's ERA and his xFIP. I have written about previously, how Ricky Nolasco could be a very undervalued pitcher come draft day 2010. I have him in the UBA league at $10, but risk losing him if I don't give him a raise. This table screams to give him a raise, but I am not so sure.

Poll

Should I give Nolasco a $5 raise in 2010?

Top Moments '09: No. 8 - Papelbon's Payback

ltrain2 — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 11:00:16 -0000

by Michael Dwyer - AP

Jonathan Papelbon, who thanks to OTM's memorable moment #8, is the Boston Red Sox's all-time saves leader.

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OTM COVERAGE: Randy Booth's recap of the Red Sox's memorable moment #8 of 2009

GAME RECAP: 07/01/2009 - Baltimore Orioles 5 Boston Red Sox 6 (11 innings)

Less than 24 hours after the Baltimore Orioles had completed the greatest comeback in the history of their franchise at the hands of the Red Sox, coming from 10 runs behind using just their final six outs, Boston got themselves a little redemption in a similar fashion.

Just one game prior to the events that led to OTM's #8 moment of 2009, the Orioles staged a 10-run comeback stunning the visiting Red Sox at Camden Yards, leaving closer Jonathan Papelbon still searching that elusive save that would leave him alone atop the franchise's list of career saves leaders.

Watching this game, I remember for a short-period of time almost rooting for the Orioles as they closed the once insurmountable gap, impatient and excited about the opportunity to see Papelbon become the Red Sox's all-time saves leader. After the game, I felt guilty, regretful, and somewhat responsible for what had transpired. Needless to say, the game for which this article is based on was a relief for not only Papelbon and the rest of the Red Sox, but myself as well.

The Red Sox had to enter the game with a little bit of a hangover-effect, and despite having their ace Josh Beckett slated to start, the first inning seemed to be a continuation of the last few innings from the nightmare that occurred the night before. After the Sox left Dustin Pedroia stranded in the top half, lead-off man Brian Roberts did his job by drawing a walk and advancing into scoring position via a theft of second base, ultimately scoring on a Felix Pie RBI-single. 1-0 Orioles after one (sigh, I thought we were playing Baltimore?).

Inning number two was accompanied by more anguish, in both halves of the frame. In the top, the Red Sox were again victimized by a struggling offense and added another zero to the scoreboard. Luke Scott wasted no time in adding to the lead starting off the bottom of the second, blasting the first pitch that he was offered from Josh Beckett over the center field wall to make it 2-0 in favor of Baltimore.

Boston would finally get on the board in the third, albiet adding just one run, only to continue the trend that was evident to this point. 'Anything you can do, we can do better,' seemed to be the home club's motto in the beginning of this particular contest. And that they did scoring two runs in response to Boston's one by way of a Nick Markakis 2-RBI double. 4-1 now, Orioles continuing their domination.

Baltimore would add yet another run in the following inning, making it four straight frames in which Beckett surrendered at least one run, and bringing the two teams to the 5-1 score that would remain until the 9th.

The top of the ninth began with the Orioles' decision to remove Bergesen (8 inngings, 1 run, 6 strikeouts, 0 walks, and only two base-runners advancing past first base) in favor of reliever Jim Johnson. This is where everything started to go wrong, or right depending on where your allegiance lies in relation to these two teams.

Johnson proceded to walk Dustin Pedroia, serve up a 2-1 fastball that Kevin Youkilis sent into the seats, then take a walk to the dugout giving way to George Sherrill. Sherrill started off in a positive way, striking out David Ortizfor the first out, but that's about where his success ended in this outing. Ellsbury singled with one out, Bailey and Varitek both drew walks, and with the bases loaded pinch-hitter Rocco Baldelli plated two with a single knotting the score up at 5-5. After walking Drew, Johnson exited much to the appreciation of Orioles fan everywhere, and new pitcher Danny Baez got Pedroia to foul out ending the inning.

After a rather uneventful following inning and a half, the Red Sox offense struck again in the 11th. Ellsbury led off the inning with a double, subsequently moving to third on a Bailey sacrifice fly. In steps defensive wiz and always potent offensive threat Julio Lugo. Sure, maybe a little too much credit awarded in the previous sentence (or a lot depending on how strong your grip on reality is), but during this particular at-bat you wouldn't know it. Lugo shocked the world, mainly the fans who watched him play with the Red Sox on a regular basis, by coming through with what would eventually become the game-winning RBI single.

Lugo's hit in the top half of the inning set the stage for Papelbon's most notable save to this point in his career, number 133, surpassing former Red Sox saves leader Bob Stanley.

Papelbon and the rest of the relievers involved in this game were the biggest reason that Boston was able to come back and get the victory (sorry, Julio). After Beckett turned in a sub-par outing, the first four frames in particular, Red Sox's pitchers retired the game's final 24 hitters to give the offense a chance to complete the epic comeback.

All-in-all, this game was memorable for several reasons. One, Boston completed an impressive come from behind victory, made even more notable by the previous night's events. Also, the 24 straight retired by the Boston pitching staff to end the game was astonishing to watch. But most of all, this game's significance lies with Jonathan Papelbon and his place in the Red Sox's record books.

Poll

What will you remember most regarding OTM's memorable moment #8 from the 2009 season?

Top Moments '09: No. 9 - The Roller Coaster Ride At Fenway

ltrain2 — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 12:00:18 -0000

Mike Lowell celebrating his game winning 3-run home run against the New York Yankees 04/25/09.

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OTM COVERAGE: 0157H7's postgame recap of the Red Sox's memorable moment #9 of 2009
GAME RECAP: 4/25/09: New York Yankees 11 Boston Red Sox 16

What list of this nature would be complete without a good old fashioned Yankees vs. Red Sox matchup? And how can it get any better than a game featuring 27 total runs scored, a six-RBI night from the recently departed Mike Lowell, five lead changes (the last of course being the best), and a battering of newly acquired Yankees pitcher A.J. Burnett?

Yes this game had it all, ultimately resulting in what was Boston's ninth straight win at the time -- second straight over the struggling Yankees (Boston would go on to sweep New York in the 3-game set at Fenway).

The Yankees began a night that was initially billed as a pitcher's duel between former Florida Marlins teammates Josh Beckett and A.J. Burnett by jumping out to a 6-0 lead in the top half of the 4th inning, thanks in large part to Robinson Cano, who blasted a 2-run home run in the third frame and followed that up with a 2-run double in the fourth (both at the hands of Beckett) to produce the Sox's 6-run deficit.

However, the Sox's bats wouldn't let the Yankees off the hook that easy, something that became the theme of the night when everything was said and done.

Boston's offense awoke from their early game slumber in a big way during their half of the fourth inning. After Pedroia, Youkilis, and Drew filled up the bases, Jason Bay got the scoring started with an RBI single. Varitek wasted no time in continuing the onslaught slugging a grand-slam off of a now visably shaken Burnett.

Beckett settled, albiet temporarily, in the fifth by tossing a scoreless frame (quite the feat on this particular night). Burnett's half of the inning, however, failed to go as smoothly. Jacoby Ellsbury homered to right field to erase the once six run lead even quicker than it was created. With the score knotted at six runs a piece, Bay again came through big, this time knocking a double that plated both David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis. Somehow, after being down 6-0, the Sox found themselves up 8-6 heading into the sixth inning. Believe it or not, it gets even more ridiculous from here.

In possibly the worst way possible, the Yankees managed to tie the game at 8-8 in the top half of the sixth. Once iconic Red Sox outfielder Johnny Damon homered scoring Yankees captain Derek Jeter, quickly destroying the small lead that Boston had worked so hard for. Without recording an out in the sixth, Beckett's night was finished. Final line: Ugly.

Boston would again grab hold of the lead in their half of the sixth following a David Ortiz sacrifice fly that scored Nick Green. Heading into the seventh inning: Yankees 8 Red Sox 9.

By this point, you should be able to guess what happens next. If you guessed that there would be yet another lead change, then it's safe to assume that you've been doing a bang-up job paying attention so far. Good work. This time, the Yankees' runs came via a rare error from second baseman Dustin Pedroia. Berroa and Gardner both scored as a result of the play as the Sox handed the lead back to New York, 10-9.

With the star of the previous game Jason Bay standing at the plate in the seventh, the Yankees decided to intentionally walk him and take their chances with Mike Lowell. Not the right move on this night. Lowell proceded to hit a 3-run blast Over The Monster (a little self-promoting there, forgive me) giving the Red Sox a 12-10 lead. A lead that, despite the trend leading up to this point in the game, actually managed to hold up.

Cano made things interesting in the eighth by cutting the lead to one with a solo home run, his second long ball of the game, but that would be all the runs that New York would accrue on this night. Pedroia added and RBI single in the bottom of the eighth, subsequently followed by Mike Lowell's bases-clearing double, bringing us to our final score of 16-11.

Just writing this game summary has given me a splitting headache.

After the game, Bay put it best:

"It was one of the more unbelievable games I've been involved in as far as back and forth," said Red Sox left fielder Jason Bay. "It was a little bit of everything, and the bullpen again held and we got some timely hits."

Interesting facts from the Red Sox's victory over the Yankees

The six run comeback was the largest since 1968, when Boston came back after being down 9-3 to beat New York by a final score of 11-10.
Lowell started the game 0-3 with two strikeouts, stranding five baserunners, only to finish with six RBIs (the most for any Red Sox player against the Yankees since Carlton Fisk circa 1973).
The 27 total runs was tied for the fourth most scored in this rivalry at the time.
The game's two starting pitchers, Beckett and Burnett, both surrendered eight runs. The first time since 1987 that both starters in a Yankee-Red Sox matchup allowed eight or more runs. The two that accomplished the feat prior to this game? Tommy John and Roger Clemens.
Mark Teixeira became the first Yankee to register five walks in a game since Roger Maris did it back in 1962.
A total of twelve pitchers threw a combined 385 pitches, managing to retire the side in order just twice (once for each team).
The 4 hours and 21 minutes that it took to complete this game is tied for the sixth-longest non-extra inning affair in baseball history. The top two on that list belonging to, of course, the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry.

The State of the Rockies: Pre-Winter Meetings Edition

Jabberwocky — Sun, 06 Dec 2009 00:45:02 -0000

Yes, Rockies fans, it's that time that you've all been waiting for: Hot Stove Season. Now that arbitration offers have been made from clubs to some of their free agents, it's time for the free agency period to begin in earnest--or at least it will when those who have been offered arbitration decide to accept or decline it (the deadline for that is December 7th). Then at the Winter Meetings in Indianapolis (the 7th through the 10th) GMs will have a pretty good idea of where the free agent market stands and what their teams' needs are.

Given the way the chips have fallen so far, it's looking increasingly like the Rockies won't make any moves of great consequence at the Meetings, though the possibility of a big trade looms insidiously just under the surface as the Rockies look to shape their roster and payroll for the 2010 season.

In this belated edition of Purple Row Academy I will do my best to break down how the upcoming Winter Meetings and the Rule 5 draft will affect the Rockies. In addition, I'll offer up some analysis on the Rockies' arbitration offers to Jason Marquis and Rafael Betancourt plus a look at some free agents the Rockies have targeted (an expanded target list for the Rockies from the last edition).

Winter Meetings

Running from next Monday through Thursday, the Winter Meetings are a hot stove afficionado's dream--where trade buzz runs fast and furious while agents make their best pitch to GMs about their clients. A lot of deals will get talked about, but likely very few will be consummated.

As you'll see below, the Rockies don't really have a lot of flexibility with either roster slots or payroll, so they will likely be on the reactive, listening side of the trade proposals and free agent players rather than being proactive about it. One eventuality that could and should be pursued by Dan O'Dowd is the potential trade of Brad Hawpe.

O'Dowd has downplayed the possibility of such a move, but that's what he needs to be saying at this juncture to maintain the strength of Hawpe's trade market. Were he on the open market, Hawpe would probably be graded as a high second-tier corner outfielder/DH option, a man that would command higher than a $7.5 million salary for 2010.

I've written about it in detail before, but Hawpe is the rare trade asset whose value to another team (particularly in the AL) is MUCH greater than it is to the outfielder-rich, lefty-saturated Rockies PLUS the opportunity cost (giving Smith/Fowler/Gonzalez more plate appearances and $7.5 million of payroll flexibility) happens to be a better alternative than simply keeping Hawpe.

While the Rockies are looking to contend in 2010 and therefore might be more likely to have a more aggressive outlook on short-term payroll, this move would likely pay off now and in the future for Colorado--even if all the Rockies receive in return are prospects (though I believe the return would include a MLB-ready young back-end starter). After all, the Rockies have Matt Murton in reserve or they could use Eric Young Jr. in the outfield.

Beyond a potential Hawpe deal though, I don't see the Rockies making too many waves next week.

Rule 5 Draft

That includes the Rule 5 draft, to be held next Tuesday the 8th. Teams can select players from other MLB organizations' minor league systems that have not been protected on the 40 man roster. For a $50,000 fee, if a team selects a player he becomes their asset, so long as he remains on that team's 25 man roster or DL all year, after which time the player may be sent down.

Looking over the players that are eligible for the draft, the only one that is of interest to me is one pointed out by Keith Law, Angels prospect Bobby Cassevah. He has average fastball velocity but has extreme groundball tendencies (70%), an ability that is valuable at Coors Field--particularly out of the bullpen. I don't see it happening though, because while the Rockies have two spots open on their 40 man roster currently, I don't foresee a 25 man roster spot being open.

As for whom the Rockies could lose, OF Cole Garner and RHP Craig Baker have been mentioned as possibilities. That's the downside of having a deep system like the Rockies do--they lose prospects to the Rule 5 Draft (David Patton and Everth Cabrera last year) because they have too many to protect.

Arbitration Offers

One offer I like and one I'm not such a big fan of but can live with--about par for the course, I guess.

Jason Marquis

Given the high demand and low supply of even second-tier starting pitching, there is a very low chance that Jason Marquis will accept arbitration from the Rockies--pencil me down for 3 years, $25-30 million from the Mets (pencil them into the playoffs the next three years).

Marquis could decide to remain a Rockie, and in doing so garner a 2010 salary of $10-11 million or so, but my guess is that he'll take the security of a longer contract with a similar amount of guaranteed money per year. It's a good time to be a free agent for Marquis, despite the economic situation--teams want solid starting pitching and supply is very low. Accepting arbitration and risking a down year would not only hurt Marquis' bargaining power next year, but also there's a stronger pitching free agent class in 2010 (headlined by Roy Halladay, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb), so getting a long-term deal just makes good business sense for Marquis.

Rafael Betancourt

It's a different market and different situation for Betancourt. For one thing, he's older (35 on Opening Day) and he's a right-handed reliever, a market with considerably more supply and less demand.

There's no denying that Betancourt was a great performer that solidified the back end of the Rockies' bullpen in 2009. However, it's highly unlikely that there is a team out there that is willing to surrender a high draft choice and give Betancourt a multi-year deal--or one that at least would pay him what he would get in arbitration from the Rockies (around $6 million is what I've estimated).

At this point it would likely be a poor business decision for Betancourt to do anything but accept arbitration with the Rockies due to his Type A status and age. The Rockies want Betancourt back, but they have a Plan B in LaTroy Hawkins should Betancourt refuse arbitration.

As others in this community have opined, this offer of arbitration hedges the Rockies' risk with Betancourt. For some, the worst situation that could happen for Colorado was that Betancourt would walk and the Rockies would get nothing out of the deal. With the arbitration offer, that won't be the case--heck, Betancourt could reject arbitration, test the open market, and then sign with the Rockies for a lower cost. I don't see this happening though--I fully expect Betancourt to do the smart thing and accept arbitration.

Personally, I'm not sure that getting Betancourt back for anything over $3 million is such a great deal for the Rockies, but then again, I happen to value relief pitching at a lower level (and am extremely wary of its variability) than most people. However, if there's any year for the Rockies to pay a little extra for a few more marginal wins, it's this year. The Rockies are in contention now and should be encouraged to take steps to ensure at least a 90 win season.

Roster and Payroll 2010 Update

Projecting Betancourt at receiving a $6.4 million award (as I've outlined here) in arbitration, this is how the Rockies' 2010 roster and payroll currently looks:

Players Under Contract (Torrealba and Embree are team option buyouts)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Add. Min. Obligation	Years After 2010
Todd Helton	12.059	$16,600,000	$23,700,000	1
Aaron Cook	7.02	$9,833,000	$10,583,000	1
Brad Hawpe	5.058	$7,500,000	$500,000	0
Jeff Francis	5.04	$5,875,000	$0	0
Troy Tulowitzki	3.033	$3,500,000	$25,750,000	3
Manuel Corpas	3.076	$2,750,000	$3,750,000	1
Ubaldo Jimenez	2.087	$1,250,000	$8,000,000	2
Yorvit Torrealba	8.03	$500,000	$0	0
Alan Embree	15.059	$250,000	$0	0
Matt Belisle	4.02	$850,000	$0	0
Randy Flores	5.061	$650,000	$0	0

Total		$49,558,000	$72,283,000

Pre-Arbitration Players (Phillips projected as back-up catcher)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary
Eric Young Jr.	0.042	$412,000
Dexter Fowler	1.027	$413,030
Franklin Morales	2.01	$414,060
Paul Phillips	2.06	$427,450
Ian Stewart	1.154	$416,120
Carlos Gonzalez	1.06	$415,090
Seth Smith	1.119	$415,090
Matt Daley	0.155	$412,000

Total		$3,324,840

Arbitration Players (assumes Atkins non-tendered, Murton not on roster)

Player Name	ML Service Time	2010 Salary	Difference from 2009
Huston Street	5	$8,775,000	95.00%
Jorge De La Rosa	5.015	$5,600,000	180.00%
Clint Barmes	4.122	$4,225,000	160.00%
Taylor Buchholz	3.14	$1,055,000	0.00%
Jason Hammel	2.153	$2,026,560	380.00%
Chris Iannetta	3.029	$1,867,500	350.00%
Rafael Betancourt	6.079	$6,405,000	83%
Ryan Spilborghs	3.072	$788,500	90.00%

Total		$30,742,560	167.25%

Grand Total Payroll: $83,625,400

The 2010 payroll including Betancourt would be the largest Rockies ODP ever (up over $8 million from last year), and it isn't complete. This roster has 24 players on it (because Buchholz will begin the season on the DL, plus Torrealba and Embree will not actually be on the team) and the open slot is for a utility infielder to replace Garrett Atkins.

Now I don't believe that it's quite this simple--I think that Torrealba, McKenry, or another option could supplant Phillips at backup catcher while a player like Corpas, Daley, or EY2 could be sent down to AAA to begin the season--but barring a trade there is only one definite opening on the 2010 Rockies that will be filled on the free agent market. For that reason, I'll be concentrating on players that fit the utility infielder mold or that have been prominently mentioned as free agent targets recently.

Free Agency Update

In the last edition I provided a list of potential free agent targets for the Rockies and all of them remain available at the moment (though Jose Contreras is looking like he's headed to Japan). In particular, Jamey Carroll has drawn a lot of interest, while Pedro Feliz has found himself jobless due to Placido Polanco signing in Philly.

While Feliz would be my ideal target to fill the Rockies' utility infielder void, let's look at the free agency targets (those that plied their trade for others last year) that the Rockies have expressed interest in (pitching and hitting) from most interesting in my estimation to least:

Justin Duchscherer: The Duke represents a possible market inefficiency that the Rockies could exploit to bolster their starting pitching depth. Twice an All-Star for the Oakland A's, Duchscherer's last couple of years have been derailed due to injury (hip and elbow) and depression. However, the 32 year old righty has shown himself to be an above-average starter and reliever--and he would likely be in search of a cheaper one year deal to build up his market value. Plus, he was once traded for Luis Vizcaino (and his second best career comparison per Baseball Reference is Betancourt). Colorado could be the perfect landing spot for him at a price around $2-3 million (with incentives for more).

Orlando Hudson: O'Dowd has downplayed the Rockies' interest in Hudson, but the possibility of Hudson in the lineup every day with Barmes as a super-utility player is nonetheless intriguing. Since the Dodgers declined to offer the 32 year old Hudson arbitration, signing him costs no draft picks. I'd bet on Hudson commanding a salary around $5 million per year for anywhere from 1-3 years. Hudson has been at least league average (2 WAR or greater) every year since 2004, so this price would likely be a bargain. This is the sort of move that a Hawpe trade could enable with increased payroll flexibility, but as it is I don't see it happening because the Rockies really are attached to Barmes at second.

Bobby Crosby: To be honest, given the Rockies' lack of roster and payroll flexibility, I would much rather sign Crosby than Hudson to fill the one remaining roster slot. The 2004 AL ROY has the versatility and right-handedness to fit the Rockies' super-utility role to a T. He would come fairly cheaply considering all the hats he'd be wearing (I'd estimate in the $2-3 million range) due to the fact that he has played poorly (an understatement really) since his 2004 campaign. While his career .302 wOBA is worrisome, Crosby has positive fielding value and will be moving from a tough AL hitter's park to a permissive NL run-scoring environment--and at worst he would be a cheaper version of Garrett Atkins circa 2009. The Rockies could certainly do worse for a utilityman.

LaTroy Hawkins: Hawkins would be Betancourt's replacement, pure and simple. The 37 year old will probably perform worse than Betancourt but will also get paid less (around $3.5 million) to do it. I'd rather Betancourt just accept arbitration than to have Hawkins back, honestly--I have this vision of Hawkins as being Alan Embree 2.0 next year for whatever reason.

Noah Lowry: The 29 year old former Giant lefty has been sidelined by injuries the last two seasons, making him a huge enigma and a gamble for any team that is interested. If the Rockies can get him on a minor league deal that would be ideal, but if signing him required a major league deal it probably would be too rich for the Rockies' budget.

By next week, after the Winter Meetings, we should have a much better idea of where the Rockies stand in free agency and trades, plus a much firmer handle on how the 2010 Rockies roster will look.

The Will Carroll/Josey Wales Memorial dumb trade proposal of the night

Adam J. Morris — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 02:56:11 -0000

From the comments on Richard Justice's blog post on the Astros tonight:

Convince [Carlos] Lee to waive his no trade and package him with [Kaz] Matsui to the Redsox for Josh Beckett. Lee can play LF for a few years or DH. Big Papi is on the decline and I think the Sox realize that. Matsui is a second baseman but he can play short and they need a a SS at the moment.

11/28 - If We Must Discuss This Again...

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Sat, 28 Nov 2009 10:00:11 -0000

First, we're going to get the stuff that hasn't been covered before out of the way. THEN we can come back to the same old topics.

Cost and Value: Economic Realities (Part 1 of 3) - Pinstripe Alley

Cost and Value: Salaries and Future Value (Part 2 of 3) - Pinstripe Alley

Evaluating the financial efficiency of the Yankees' lineup.

Yeah, I know, MFY fans, eww. But that's no excuse not to read these.

Black Friday Baseball Bargains - Fenway West

Nothing shocking or crazy, just a reminder of what's out there.

Rivals bicker over Red Sox relic - Boston Herald

A coveted piece of Red Sox lore sits deep in Yankee country with an uncertain future as a pair of rival collectors bitterly feud over who will profit from a potential sale of the Olde Town Team’s 1912 World Series trophy.

STORY TIME!!!! And don't give me some excuse about having to hear about Pilgrims and Indians all week - we all know that no one talks about that after the kindergarten plays with construction paper outifts.

The Brain: Humanity's Other Basic Instinct: Math - DISCOVER Magazine

Thanks to Tommy at BtB for this link.

Discussion: The Trade Of The Decade - MLBTradeRumors.com

Torey Lovullo to be named manager of Pawtucket - SoxProspects.com

After the jump, a whole bunch of stuff about assorted Blue Jay players (and a Detroit Tiger as well).

Latest buzz from the MLB offseason - FOX Sports on MSN

Will the Red Sox go after Cabrera? — 1:23 p.m.

There is no evidence to suggest that the Red Sox have approached the Tigers about a trade for first baseman Miguel Cabrera. But besides the Red Sox's obvious need for a slugger such as Cabrera, there is another reason to believe that a conversation between the clubs almost certainly will take place.

Red Sox owner John Henry.

As the Marlins' owner in July 1999, Henry authorized the signing of the 16-year-old Cabrera out of Venezuela for $1.8 million. Less than two months later, the Marlins signed their top draft pick, right-hander Josh Beckett, the No. 2 pick overall, to a four-year, $7 million deal.

Cabrera and Beckett were Henry's two most important player acquisitions for the Marlins. Henry, after taking over the Red Sox in Jan. 2002, reunited with Beckett through a trade in Nov. 2005.

Acquiring Cabrera from his former Marlins GM, Dave Dombrowski, would complete a circle of sorts — and perhaps put Henry in position to win his third World Series with the Red Sox.

Red Sox left with little choice in SS race — 1:12 p.m

Barring a major surprise, the Blue Jays' signing of free-agent shortstop Alex Gonzalez leaves the Red Sox with virtually no choice but to sign Marco Scutaro.

No quality shortstops are known to be available in trade, and the free-agent market is thin on quality defenders at the position.

The shortage, in part, is what motivated the Jays to move quickly on Gonzalez, signing him to a one-year, $2.75 million contract Thursday with a $2.5 million club option for 2011.

The Jays did not want to be caught short at the position, the way the Orioles were in 2008. Pitching is difficult enough in the AL East, especially with a young staff.

Among the available free agents, Orlando Cabrera's defense has declined, and many clubs believe that Miguel Tejada needs to move off short. Adam Everett is a terrific defender, but an even weaker hitter than Gonzalez.

The Jays still will offer arbitration to Scutaro, a Type A free agent; they would play him in left field and bat him leadoff if he accepted a one-year, non-guaranteed deal. Scutaro, though, likely will get a better offer than that from the Red Sox or another club.

His departure would net the Jays two high draft picks as compensation. The Jays also could flip Gonzalez for additional young talent at some point — the free-agent market at short next winter also will be thin, and he is under control for �11 — but they still lack a long-term solution at the position.

It looks like Red Sox will have yet another new shortstop 2010 - The Providence Journal

Try not to gag on the dance metaphor.

How signing Alex Gonzalez could net Toronto a 1st round pick - THT

Alex Gonzalez to Toronto; What Will Red Sox Do Next? - Bleacher Report

If only they would ever give reasoning for WHY they don't want a list of players.

Boston Red Sox Wants Marco Scutaro? The Question Is...WHY?! - Bleacher Report

Oh, SOOOOO close to being good - the end is lacking.

Arbitration deadline could decide a lot - Extra Bases

More hot air on Halladay front - National Post

The Jays want a major league-ready arm and bat, both young and affordable enough to stay in Toronto a while, plus prospects for Halladay.

@SI_JonHeyman

ive heard halladay-shopping jays like jesus montero of #yanks (plus hughes/joba?) and casey kelly of #redsox (plus buchholz?)

Links, comments, plans for vengence if the FO does anything really stupid today, etc. Oh, and Go Gators!

11/5,6,7 - Curfews,Catching Up, and Traveling

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:00:20 -0000

Sorry about the lack of posts for the past few days - apparently, parents don't like realizing that they've raised an insomniac. Posts might be a little further spaced out, but with more links in each edition, depending on how much I can get done before I literally lose my Internet connection on school nights. Hey, that's what you get when a teenager is your news aggregator. Now, with that out of the way, here's the first set of links:

Does Boston's Trade for Jeremy Hermida Mean the End for Jason Bay in Beantown? - Bleacher Report

Though Hermida is by no means a middle-of-the-order slugger, this could very well signal the end of Jason Bay's tenure in Boston. Bay recently shot down a four-year, $60 million offer from the Sox, and his worth will only increase as the offseason wears on.

Among other reasons why Bay might not be returning, but if this sticks out to someone as a red flag of sorts, we'll have to see if they're right.

Marlins Trade Jeremy Hermida To Red Sox: A Sign of Things To Come - Bleacher Report

Due to the economy, these are the types of trades you are going to see this winter. Teams who can’t afford to wait on young players or can’t afford a player’s salary will be forced to trade them to teams who can.

Lots of different spins on this whole deal. Of course, Hermida was also part of another trade the Sox were involved in, or at least an attempt at one:

Let the Offseason Begin: Boston Red Sox Steal Hermida from Florida Marlins - Bleacher Report

That proposal didn’t gain any traction, and Hermida stayed with the Marlins, but despite missing out on his services, Boston remained infatuated with him and his potential, hoping he would someday be part of their quest for a World Series championship.

Totally forgot about the Manny-Marlins rumor. Although, now I do remember seeing a mockup of what Manny would look like in "fishstripes" on a Marlins' broadcast (don't remember why I was watching that). It was amazing how quickly they jumped on that rumor.

Jeremy Hermida: Bust Or Breakout - Bleacher Report

Seems to be more common view of the trade.

Yeah, I know, not much variety so far; it is interesting to see the variety of opinions available from relatively unconnected authors, as opposed to here, where the discussions can help figure out how we should feel about certain issues. After the jump, some more "independent" writing, an important discovery from YWA, and more general Hot Stove linkage.

4 Moves The Boston Red Sox Have To Make to Win The World Series In 2010 - Bleacher Report

After a quick exit from the MLB playoffs i quickly started to think, what could they do to get better? After a few weeks of research and asking my self questions i have come up with four moves they Red Sox must confront this off season if they want to win the 2010 World Series

BOW TO THE KNOWLEDGEABLE ONE. If you can make it past the sub-par writing quality (if you're reading this, than you probably can), have fun laughing at how many players are apparently good-for-nothing busts.

Rebuilding A Nation: BoSox in 2010 - Bleacher Report

If Theo has someone dedicated to researching the general public opinion of Red Sox Nation (hopefully not just looking at polls by the commercialized club), he probably gets a good laugh from some of the If-I-was-the-GM type articles.

Ranking the World Series Champions in the 2000s - Bleacher Report

Not sure what they're ranking them by.

Trade Market: Right Fielders - MLBTradeRumors.com

Market awareness link - also an opportunity to search for JD's safety net.

Free Agent Friday: First Base 2010 - Beyond the Box Score

Again, not that we're interested, but it's a good idea of what's available.

2010 Red Sox Preview: First Base - Yawkey Way Academy

See? Probably not going to need to be looking at the Free Agents here.

Report: Red Sox Interested in Cuban First Baseman - NESN.com

Although the younger prospects are always worth looking into.

Theo’s "95-Win Team", Beckett’s Extension, Falling Dominoes, and the Mailbag - Fire Brand of the AL

In recent years, one of the most important axioms put forth by the Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office is the law of the "95-Win Team". According to this directive, the team’s goal is to target 95-wins annually in an effort to compete every season. This is really a great piece of wisdom, as a team that wins 95 games will make the playoffs most years. In fact, the Wild Card winner since 2003 – the first year Theo took the esteemed office of Red Sox General Manger – has averaged a record of just about 95-67.

Theo Epstein can’t just wait ’til next year - BostonHerald.com

Apparently - jumped on Hermida on the first day. Of course, there seems to be a lot of activity happening really early this year.

Umpire Strike Zone Analysis - The Basics and Batter Handedness - Beyond the Box Score

2009 World Series: Philadelphia Phillies' Pedro Martinez exits in a hurry - ESPN

Pedro Martinez's outing in Game 6 of the World Series was brief, as was his bizarre session with reporters after he tried to bolt the Phillies' clubhouse without speaking to the media.

All you can do is wear it - Extra Bases

Revisiting 2009: Did we get what we expected? - Fire Brand of the AL

Which catcher would you least like to see go on free agency? - Fire Brand of the American League

Umm... duh. Seems like the question was supposed to be more mind-blowing than it is, but somehow the effect got lost in transcribing it.

Not cuckoo for Coco - Extra Bases

Unless he's really cheap - could help if Ells is still having issues this season. Not sure he's worth the roster spot though...

With Earlier Offseason Regimen, David Ortiz Expects to Slug Away in 2010 - NESN.com

Learning to Pitch with Josh Beckett - Yawkey Way Academy

Haven't seen this info anywhere else - Beckett's becoming a pitcher rather than a thrower with a curve. If he can figure it all out this year, he'd be a lot better prepared for his post-peak years, which should be starting with his next contract.

Hideki Okajima is a Key Part of Red Sox' 2010 Puzzle - NESN.com

Green to have surgery - Full Count

SS = surgically sidelined, apparently.

Ten players the Sox could pursue - Boston.com

Not a lot of surprising names, but there are a few new ideas.

New Elias: Harden, Beltre Type B’s; Figgins an A, so’s Billy Wagner - Clubhouse Insider

A: Figgins, Wagner, Bay (tied Markickass for best AL outfielder - hint at how primitive their evaluation statistics are)

B: Harden, Beltre, Tek, Zaun

Unranked: Gonzo (muhahaha)

Comments, links, ideas on how to convince my parents that it's not harmful for me to write for OTM (I've tried describing it as a critical thinking exercise and a brain after-exercise-stretch), etc. Oh, and I'll be traveling on a five-day weekend, so I might be absent for a day or two. I'm sure one of the editors wouldn't mind bumping a links Fanpost up if anyone finds a bunch of really good links.

Breaking Down Arnsberg: What Are the Astros Getting?

davoag — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 13:00:27 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

Is the criticism of Brad Arnsberg justified?

Browse more photos »

In case you missed the FanShot from last Friday, the Astros hired a new pitching coach. Brad Arnsberg comes with a reputation as a young pitcher-killer, but was loved by all his staffs and seemed to be able to work some magic with 'reclamation projects.' The World Wide Web was abuzz with articles about his abundance, or lack thereof, of talent. A fine hat-tip to clack and AstroAndy for linking to them.

What I wanted to do, though, is to see if it was warranted. What we're really worried about here are young pitchers, right? Guys 24 years old and younger are in the prime area for suffering from over-use. There are two different models out there currently used to predict injuries to young pitchers. Both were researched pretty thoroughly, but it's hard to tell if they're good predictors of injury potential or just good at explaining what happened in the past.

When I went back to research Arnsberg, I looked at every staff he had from 2000 in Montreal to 2002 with the Marlins and through his five-year tenure in Toronto. I focused on all the pitchers he had that were 24 or younger. This is a bit of a departure from the model, since they stop at 25, but since two-thirds of his stops were of the one-year variety, I downgraded the age a year. The two methods I mentioned were Tom Verducci's theory on an increase in innings from year to year, most recently laid out here. The other was Pitching Abuse Points (PAP), first published back in 1998 by Rany Jazayerli here. I believe it's been tweaked a bit here and there since then, but it's a good starting place for the discussion. My results after the jump...

Arnsberg oversaw 28 different pitchers in their Age 24 season or younger. His biggest year for this was in 2000 in Montreal, when 10 different young pitchers got into games. The 2000 season also seemed to be a learning year for Arnsberg as to how best to utilize pitchers. Of the 10, only one threw more innings than the previous season (Javier Vasquez, +63 IP) and only one had more than 10 PAP per start (Vasquez, 16 PAP). Carl Pavano pitched seven fewer innings than in 1999, but had a PAP/Start of 4.8 and then suffered an injury the following season. The rest all had significant drops in innings pitched and none had more than 2 PAP/start. None of the relievers in his bullpen threw three straight days and only Pavano suffered an injury the following season. Knowing what we do now about Carl, it's easy to see it probably wasn't Arnsberg's fault.

The next year he surfaced was in 2002 with the Marlins. Five guys played at 24 or younger and two of the five had jumps higher than 30 innings. Both Justin Wayne and Nate Robertson pitched over 40 innings more than the previous season, but each threw the majority of their innings in the minors, not the majors. It's hard for me to pin these jumps on Arnsberg for that reason, since their workload was controlled by the minor league pitching coordinator, not the big league pitching coach. As for the other three, Josh Beckett threw 47 less innings than the previous season and averaged 2.1 PAP per start. Pretty reasonable for a 22-year old. Brad Penny had a 69 inning drop in his workload and had 0.8 PAP/start. The other guy in this group was Blaine Neal, a reliever who saw his workload go up by six innings and was used three straight days twice that season. One of those times, though was on both ends of a double-header, when he faced just one batter in the first game. No real injury trouble here, at least not by Arnsberg's work. Beckett had the blister problems, but that's not related to overuse and Penny did have arm trouble, but much later than this.

On to the Toronto years, where Arnsberg saw an impressive group of young pitchers hit the big leagues. In his first season, he had five pitchers in the age range we are looking at. Two drastically increased their inning total (Dustin McGowan, +70, Chad Gaudin +74) while one starter also saw an uptick into the danger zone (Gustavo Chacin +36). The other two guys, Brandon League and Shaun Marcum had smaller increases or decreases, but only Chacin had any PAP to speak of. Chacin's total of 3.7 PAP/start is high, but not distressingly so and his innings increase was slight in comparison to McGowan's. Still, Chacin did suffer a major drop-off in performance and had an injury or two thrown in for good measure. Of course, his delivery is a bit quirky and he came out of nowhere to begin with, so it's hard to say whether Arnsberg led to this flameout. Certainly, the other guys on this list went on to have solid years after 2005, so we may just be dealing with a small sample size.

In 2006, Arnsberg oversaw seven young pitchers, including newcomers Casey Janssen, Ty Taubenheim, Jeremy Accardo and Davis Romero. Accardo, Romero and Dustin McGowan all had inning increases but the rest saw their totals drop. Janssen was the only pitchers with more than 1 PAP/start and his was exactly one. Marcum saw his total drop by 35 innings and had a PAP of 0.8 while League had a slight drop in innings, but was used twice three games in a row. Taubenheim moved from a starter's role in the minors to the bullpen in the majors, which explains his 60-inning drop. None of the evidence here supports the conclusion that misuse led to any injuries.

In 2007, there were only four pitchers in our age-range, including two holdovers, League and Taubenheim. Newcomers Jesse Litsch and Josh Banks both saw increases, though Litsch saw his total rise by 29 innings, just underneath the magic threshold. Litsch also had just 0.7 PAP/start, meaning he wasn't throwing a ton of pitches. League saw his total drop by 59 innings, in part due to injury (I think, though I can't find it anywhere). Taubenheim had his total rise by 15, but was not used in more than two straight games, so he didn't really get overworked.

Litsch was the only pitcher considered young in 2008 and he saw his total innings drop by 11, but his PAP jumped up to 4.2 per start. More distressingly, though was how he was used down the stretch. From August 21 to September 29, Litsch started nine games and threw 61 innings and 980 pitches. He totaled 88 PAP for an average of 9.7 per start, a huge jump over the beginning of the season. He went 5-4 over this stretch and had an average game score of 62.4. Those were both reasons why he pitched so much, I'm sure. He was doing so well that the Jays wanted to keep him pitching to keep them in the race, as the team got to 12 games over .500 on Sept. 12. However, Litsch was pretty much abused during this stretch. He was used once on two days' rest, throwing 49 pitches over three innings and was used once on three days' rest in the back half of a doubleheader. Litsch threw 110 pitches over 5 1/3 innings.

In 2009, Litsch was shut down in April and finally had Tommy John surgery in June. I think it's safe to say that his usage pattern at the end of 2008 may have led to this, but we can't be certain. Arnsberg's last year with Toronto saw five pitchers in our age-group, including Litsch. Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, Mark Rzepczynski and Brad Mills made major-league debuts and all but Mills saw increases in their inning totals. None saw jumps of over 30, though they all had more PAP than in Arnsberg's past. Romero tallied 6.3 PAP/start and saw his innings jump 14, while Brett Cecil had a jump of 24 innings and 2.1 PAP/start. Rzepczynski made the jump straight from Double-A and saw an increase in 28 innings while having a PAP of 3.8 per start.

What does this mean? Arnsberg gets blamed for the injuries to Marcum and McGowan, but in their formative years with the club, you can see he really didn't do much to hurt them. Only in 2008 did his usage patterns significantly change, and that also coincided with a new manager, Mr. Old School Cito Gaston. This is a classic example of a guy from a bygone era trying to throw pitchers out there like they did in the '70's and hoping it will work. In 2008, for example, Gaston used pitchers on short rest six times, while the American League average was just 3.7. In 2009, he was right in line with the league average of 3, but it still shows that he used his pitchers differently than most of the league. Arnsberg didn't like it, and clashed with his manager as was chronicled here and here. I'm not sure you can blame Arnsberg for what happened to Litsch but you definitely can't blame him for Marcum and McGowan. B.J. Ryan also can't be blamed on him, nor can A.J. Burnett, as both guys had either a history of injuries or a jump in innings before coming to Toronto.

At least one place is mad Arnsberg left Toronto, while there are a couple other places that still levy criticism. I'm not sure how Arnsberg will do with Houston, but I do know he's got a pretty good track record of keeping the young guys healthy. He'll have a tough time on his hands next season, though, as Bud Norris saw a 95 inning jump in his workload, though his PAP/start was just 0.5. Yorman Bazardo was also in the danger zone with a 34 inning jump, and his performance doesn't need any regression. The only worrying part of the bullpen was Sammy Gervacio being used three straight days three different times and once for four straight games. Of course, the 24-year old only threw more than 20 pitches in a game twice, so it's not as worrisome as it appears.

To review, Arnsberg coached for four different managers and only under Gaston did his track record go astray. Out of all his young pitchers, just three were inordinately abused: Chacin, Litsch and Vasquez. Now, we can see that Vasquez was just built to hold up to a higher workload, similar to Roy Halladay. Still, it doesn't excuse the abuse in the first place. Is Gaston more to blame for the last couple of seasons in Toronto? We can't REALLY tell, but after reviewing all this, I certainly feel better about the Astros' new pitching coach.