SB Nation - Hideki Okajima

Fantasy Baseball: Early AL Closer Watch.

Ian, yo — Thu, 24 Dec 2009 03:04:26 -0000

More photos » by Kathy Willens - AP

8 months ago: New York Yankees closer Mariano Rivera delivers to a member of the Phillies AAA club during a spring training baseball game at the Yankees minor league complex in Tampa, Fla., Tuesday, March 31, 2009. (AP Photo/Kathy Willens)

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We've seen a lot of trade rumors and trade analysis as of late and there really hasn't been any mention of the many teams with closer situations. We will check back in after a few months and see if anything has changed, but this is how things are looking as of now.

AL East

Yankees- I think we all know this answer. Mo' should be one of the top closers in the game again. One day, he may fall apart, but for a player of his caliber, he may retire before than happens. Next in line: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, Mark Melancon.
Red Sox- Jonathan Papelbon. In 2009, Papelbon posted a 1.85 ERA, which would lead you to believe he had a successful season. If you look at the peripheral stats, you'd see that Papelbon had an FIP of 3.05 and while he kept his K/9 above 10, he posted a BB/9 over 3 for the first time since his rookie season where he threw only 34 big league innings. I wouldn't be surprised to see Papelbon traded with the closer in waiting in Daniel Bard likely getting more work in the later innings. Next in line: Daniel Bard, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen.
Orioles- Mike Gonzalez. The Orioles signed Gonzalez to be their closer and I can't really see anyone challenging him for the job this year. Next in line: Jim Johnson, Kam Mikolio.
Blue Jays- Jason Frasor. While there is nothing concrete in Toronto, I think Frasor will be the guy in 2010. Frasor saved 11 games in 2009 and ended the season with an FIP of 2.99 and a K/BB of 3.50. I think if the season were to begin today, Frasor would be the man, but he could lose it fairly easily. Next in line: Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo.
Rays- Rafael Soriano. The Rays either didn't seem confident or have other plans for J.P Howell in 2010. After trading prospect Jesse Chavez to Atlanta, the Rays are set at closer with Soriano. If he were to get hurt (which he does somewhat often) I would think Wheeler is the next on the list with Howell being the late inning lefty. Next in line: Dan Wheeler, J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour.

AL Central

Twins- Joe Nathan. See Mariano Rivera. Next in line: Jon Rauch, Pat Neshek, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares.
Tigers- Joel Zumaya. Currently the Tigers depth chart lists Zumaya as the closer. He's always been thought of as the closer of the future, but the Tigers have never really given him an extended look due to durability concerns. If made a closer, Zumaya could be a top level closer but he'll have to get his walks under control for that to happen. Next in line: Ryan Perry, Daniel Schlereth, Casey Fien, Phil Coke.
White Sox- Bobby Jenks. As we speak, Jenks seems to be the closer and is listed as such on the depth chart. Matt Thornton is the better pitcher, but experience could be key here. I still think Thornton ends up with the job at some point. Next in line: Matt Thornton, J.J. Putz.
Indians- Kerry Wood. Wood struggled in and there are a few more guys in waiting that could make this one of the more interesting (aka: avoidable) closer situations in 2010. Next in line: Chris Perez, Rafael Perez.
Royals- Joakim Soria. One of the more talented relievers in the game. He was hampered by injuries a bit in 2009 and still saved 30 games with a 2.21 ERA. I don't see him going anywhere. Next in line: Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth.

AL West

Angels- Brian Fuentes. Didn't have the greatest season, but the Angels paid him to close, so I don't see him doing anything else. Next in line: Fernando Rodney, Kevin Jepsen.
Rangers- Frank Francisco. Francisco spent time on and off the DL in 2009 and the Rangers bolstered their bullpen by adding Chris Ray and Darren Oliver, making the closer role available to C.J. Wilson, Chris Ray, Francisco or fireballer Neftali Feliz. If the Rangers decide not to prepare Feliz to start, he could very easily become an elite closer. Next in line: Chris Ray, C.J. Wilson, Neftali Feliz.
Mariners- David Aardsma. The Mariners seem to be pushing for a playoff berth in 2010 by trading away Brandon Morrow for Brandon League and prospect Johermyn Chavez. League brings a big time GB% (which fits in with Seattle's league leading defense.) While I do think Aardsma will be the closer and will be successful, I wouldn't totally rule out a trade of one of the young, power arms in Seattle's pen. Next in line: Mark Lowe, Brandon League, Shawn Kelley, Joshua Fields.
Athletics- Andrew Bailey. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year is likely to be the closer for the A's in 2010, but that's what we thought about Brad Zeigler in 2009. I still see Bailey as the closer, however. Next in line: Brad Ziegler, Joey Devine, Michael Wuertz, John Meloan.

Don't Overlook Holes In The Red Sox's Bullpen

Randy Booth — Sun, 13 Dec 2009 11:00:17 -0000

More photos » by Charles Krupa - AP

Who's going to help set this guy up in 2010?

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While people debate who should play left field for the Red Sox in 2010 (it's a heated discussion if you haven't jumped in on it yet), there are still other problems to be solved.

One is who will play third base if Mike Lowell is traded. Perhaps that is the biggest issue after the left field question mark, but No. 2 is important as well: who's going to be in the bullpen next season?

Sure, talking about bullpen arms isn't sexy like talking about power-hitting left fielders. But it's an important factor in the equation. After all, the effectiveness of the Red Sox's bullpen last season was one of the reasons they made it into the playoffs. The Red Sox's core six relievers -- Jonathan Papelbon, Hideki Okajima, Manny Delcarmen, Daniel Bard, Ramon Ramirez and Takashi Saito -- combined for a 3.07 earned run average in 363.1 innings.

Now, however, one of those relievers is gone (Saito), one proved very ineffective toward the end of the season (Delcarmen), one began to crumble underneath his workload (Ramirez) and Billy Wagner, who was a late-season acquisition, is calling Atlanta his new home.

With the Red Sox's current roster, here are the locks for the bullpen:

Jonathan Papelbon, closer
Daniel Bard
Hideki Okajima
Ramon Ramirez
Manny Delcarmen

Let's say the Red Sox go with 12 pitchers on the roster, with seven of those coming in the bullpen. Right now the Sox are looking at two empty bullpen spots. Looking at internal options, who fills the spots?

Scott Atchison
A recent acquisition, Atchison provides more depth. And if the Sox have him on their Opening Day roster, he either a) blew the team away in spring training or b) there's plenty of injuries. The latter is more likely. So, if Atchison is in one of these two spots, we better hope it's because he's fantastic in the spring.

Boof Bonser
Bonser is the most likely candidate as he can both start and relieve. If Bonser is on the Red Sox's Opening Day roster, it will most likely be in a long reliever type role. If the Sox are getting blown out -- or better yet, blowing a team out -- Bonser can come out of the 'pen and pitch some good innings. It will also make for an easy transition if he needs to start any games.

Michael Bowden
Bowden is in an interesting stage right now. He's proven he can play in Triple-A. He's ready for something bigger and better than that, but he hasn't had much success at the Major League level. He also hasn't had a lot of time to prove himself, either. The Red Sox don't have a spot in the starting rotation for him, but he could fill a Bonser-like role if he wants to be a long reliever. The Red Sox could also try and convert him to a reliever if need be. Bowden wants to stick in the bigs; this may be the best way for him to do that.

Fernando Cabrera
Cabrera was quite dominate for the Pawtucket Red Sox in 2009. He struck out nearly one batter per inning while opponents hit just .208 against him. His WHIP was a nifty little 1.12 in 55.1 innings. His callup to Boston, though, didn't go as well. He gave up five runs in 5.1 innings, but he did strike out eight batters. Small sample size doesn't sway in his favor, but the 28 year old still can offer the Sox a decent bullpen arm.

Fabio Castro
Castro is historically a starter, but could see bullpen action -- if the Red Sox get desperate. He doesn't struck out many batters, but he walks a lot. Oh, and he gives up a lot of hits, too. So basically, he's not going to do much for the Sox unless he can figure out those three problems first.

Ramon A. Ramirez
The other Ramon Ramirez. RamRam II has a great history against lefties -- a .218 batting average against in more than 270 innings -- but that might be the only thing he has going for him. He's a decent arm but like Atchison, shouldn't sniff the bullpen unless there are some serious issues already.

Dustin Richardson
Perhaps the sleeper of the group, Richardson made his name in 2009. After a rough 2008 season (he racked up a 6.33 ERA in 106.2 innings of work for Double-A Portland), Richardson came out and made easy work of his competition last season. He struck out 80 in 63.1 innings to start the year in Portland before a promotion to Pawtucket. He worked just 10.2 innings in Pawtucket, but he allowed just two runs and struck out 17. Between Portland and Pawtucket, he held batters to a .191 batting average against. He had a cup of coffee late in the season for the Red Sox (he gave up three hits and a walk in 3.1 innings). Perhaps the impressive 2009 will get Richardson a foot in the door come February.

The names aren't sexy, but they have arms that could potentially work within the Red Sox's bullpen. Of course, these are only internal options. We haven't looked at the external options yet, which don't give off many good vibes either.

What do you think? If you had to choose one of these internal options to be in the Red Sox's bullpen, who would you pick? Would you rather have an experienced pitcher like a Cabrera or Atchison, or a younger arm like Richardson? Should the Sox look in free agency rather than these internal options? Are there any trades you'd like to see the Sox make?

Poll

If you had to choose one internal option for the Red Sox's bullpen, who would it be?

Guest Post: Minding the Hot Stove-Scouting Hisanori Takahashi

raygu — Tue, 24 Nov 2009 17:00:17 -0000

Today we have a guest post from Steve Sheridan from MLB Fantasy Prospects on Japanese pitcher Hisanori Takahashi. You can read more of Steve's work over at www.mlbfantasyprospects.com.

Last week, Bobbie Dittmeier of MLB.com broke the story on possible Japanese import, Hisanori Takahashi. The 34-year-old lefty has spent his entire 10-year career with the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball, or NPB, the highest level of baseball in Japan. While coming off one of his best seasons, Takahashi has been pretty inconsistent for most of his career (stats courtesy of JapaneseBallplayers.com):

Year	ERA	G	IP	SO
2000	3.18	24	135.2	102
2001	3.94	30	134.2	99
2002	3.09	24	163.1	145
2003	3.84	13	86.2	78
2004	5.44	16	91.0	61
2005	4.47	27	163.0	135
2006	4.94	35	62.0	51
2007	2.75	28	186.2	141
2008	4.13	23	122.0	94
2009	2.94	25	144.0	126

More after the jump:

Dittmeier reported what were probably the juiciest tidbits from the soon-to-be-former Yomiuri Giant’s press conference. The most interesting quote was the following:

"I decided I wanted to try out for the Majors three days ago," Takahashi said, according to sponichi.co.jp. "If I didn't have confidence in myself, I wouldn't have made the decision. I want to go to a team that needs me. I'd be extremely happy if I'm used as a starter."

MLBFP knows our readers are always looking for the inside track on any potential sleepers…especially starting pitchers. So yours truly dug deep and reached out to Brandon Siefken, who runs a site called Japan Baseball News, along with his partner, Bob Bavasi. If the Bavasi name sounds familiar, it should. The Bavasi family has strong ties to MLB:

E.J. Buzzie Bavasi (1915-2008) served as general manager of the Brooklyn and Los Angeles Dodgers, founding president and part-owner of the San Diego Padres, and general manager of the California Angels.
Peter Bavasi was general manager of the San Diego Padres, founding president of the Toronto Blue Jays, and president of the Cleveland Indians.
Bill Bavasi is vice president of scouting, player development and international operations for the Cincinnati Reds and formerly executive vice president and general manager of both the Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels, where he spent 20 years, first as farm director and then as general manager.

Siefken has been a resident of Japan since 1991 and extensively follows Japanese amateur and pro baseball. He currently serves as a scout intern for a MLB team. His take on Takahashi was not inspiring:

Hisanori is a slight, undersized pitcher who had his best year in 2009. He is peaking right now. He does not overpower people…relies on more off-speed stuff and pitch selection to get his outs. He logs many innings, and can give up bad innings, but not terrible innings. I do not believe he would be dominant at the MLB level, but he could be a good middle reliever if he is not asked to go too many innings…could be very similar to Hideki Okajima, but with a more orthodox delivery.

Siefken’s opinion is very similar to a scouting report Rotoworld recently cited from Patrick Newman, founder of the blog, NPB Tracker:

Takahashi has said he wants to continue in a starting role after he crosses the Pacific, but putting everything together he seems better suited for the bullpen. That said, assuming his screwball doesn’t get lost in translation, I don’t see why he can’t be an effective reliever in the Okajima mold.

If you’re looking for more in-depth info on this potential Japanese import, I strongly urge you to read the rest of Newman’s recent blog post on Takahashi, linked-to above.

MLBFP’s take? A pitcher like Okajima isn’t going to hurt your roto-team’s ERA or sim-league squad's chances, but he’s not going to win you a championship, either. Hey, this guy could just as easily be the 2010 version of Koji Uehara. If a pitching-needy MLB team signs Takahashi with plans to use him as a starter, let some other owner in your league take the risk.

Why Don't Losses Count Anymore?

R.J. Anderson — Sat, 21 Nov 2009 23:12:13 -0000

Winning games is the whole point of baseball. Yet all these voters seem to have forgotten that. For whatever reasons these "educated" voters gave the best pitcher awards to pitchers who lost a combined 15 games in 65 appearances. Bollocks says I. Forget these calculators and mathematical equations and focus on what matters: winning games. Or, inversely, not losing games. The illustrious Herm Edwards once said "You play to win the game," right on Herm. That's why the best pitcher in the league is none other than Hideki Okajima. Oh, I'm crazy you say? Look at these artifacts of record:

68 games, 6 wins, 0 losses

That's more games than San Francisco Giants pitcher "Tim Lincecum" or Kansas City Royals pitcher "Zack Greinke". Oh, you can point to their increased win totals but that's just dishonest. Okajima is a reliever, one who never let his team down. You can't say that about these other jokers. In wins he held opponents to a .100 batting average and 100% of his hits allowed were home runs - showing that he let his defenders take the games off in which he won. What a great teammate.

It's time we put the bed sheets and new-fangled numbers behind us. Old-timers will tell you what really matters (wins) and that lead paint looks better than any water-based type.

As for the rest of my ballot:

Brian Bruney 5-0

Joe Nelson 3-0

John Grabow 3-0

Tony Sipp 2-0

11/5,6,7 - Curfews,Catching Up, and Traveling

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Sat, 07 Nov 2009 10:00:20 -0000

Sorry about the lack of posts for the past few days - apparently, parents don't like realizing that they've raised an insomniac. Posts might be a little further spaced out, but with more links in each edition, depending on how much I can get done before I literally lose my Internet connection on school nights. Hey, that's what you get when a teenager is your news aggregator. Now, with that out of the way, here's the first set of links:

Does Boston's Trade for Jeremy Hermida Mean the End for Jason Bay in Beantown? - Bleacher Report

Though Hermida is by no means a middle-of-the-order slugger, this could very well signal the end of Jason Bay's tenure in Boston. Bay recently shot down a four-year, $60 million offer from the Sox, and his worth will only increase as the offseason wears on.

Among other reasons why Bay might not be returning, but if this sticks out to someone as a red flag of sorts, we'll have to see if they're right.

Marlins Trade Jeremy Hermida To Red Sox: A Sign of Things To Come - Bleacher Report

Due to the economy, these are the types of trades you are going to see this winter. Teams who can’t afford to wait on young players or can’t afford a player’s salary will be forced to trade them to teams who can.

Lots of different spins on this whole deal. Of course, Hermida was also part of another trade the Sox were involved in, or at least an attempt at one:

Let the Offseason Begin: Boston Red Sox Steal Hermida from Florida Marlins - Bleacher Report

That proposal didn’t gain any traction, and Hermida stayed with the Marlins, but despite missing out on his services, Boston remained infatuated with him and his potential, hoping he would someday be part of their quest for a World Series championship.

Totally forgot about the Manny-Marlins rumor. Although, now I do remember seeing a mockup of what Manny would look like in "fishstripes" on a Marlins' broadcast (don't remember why I was watching that). It was amazing how quickly they jumped on that rumor.

Jeremy Hermida: Bust Or Breakout - Bleacher Report

Seems to be more common view of the trade.

Yeah, I know, not much variety so far; it is interesting to see the variety of opinions available from relatively unconnected authors, as opposed to here, where the discussions can help figure out how we should feel about certain issues. After the jump, some more "independent" writing, an important discovery from YWA, and more general Hot Stove linkage.

4 Moves The Boston Red Sox Have To Make to Win The World Series In 2010 - Bleacher Report

After a quick exit from the MLB playoffs i quickly started to think, what could they do to get better? After a few weeks of research and asking my self questions i have come up with four moves they Red Sox must confront this off season if they want to win the 2010 World Series

BOW TO THE KNOWLEDGEABLE ONE. If you can make it past the sub-par writing quality (if you're reading this, than you probably can), have fun laughing at how many players are apparently good-for-nothing busts.

Rebuilding A Nation: BoSox in 2010 - Bleacher Report

If Theo has someone dedicated to researching the general public opinion of Red Sox Nation (hopefully not just looking at polls by the commercialized club), he probably gets a good laugh from some of the If-I-was-the-GM type articles.

Ranking the World Series Champions in the 2000s - Bleacher Report

Not sure what they're ranking them by.

Trade Market: Right Fielders - MLBTradeRumors.com

Market awareness link - also an opportunity to search for JD's safety net.

Free Agent Friday: First Base 2010 - Beyond the Box Score

Again, not that we're interested, but it's a good idea of what's available.

2010 Red Sox Preview: First Base - Yawkey Way Academy

See? Probably not going to need to be looking at the Free Agents here.

Report: Red Sox Interested in Cuban First Baseman - NESN.com

Although the younger prospects are always worth looking into.

Theo’s "95-Win Team", Beckett’s Extension, Falling Dominoes, and the Mailbag - Fire Brand of the AL

In recent years, one of the most important axioms put forth by the Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office is the law of the "95-Win Team". According to this directive, the team’s goal is to target 95-wins annually in an effort to compete every season. This is really a great piece of wisdom, as a team that wins 95 games will make the playoffs most years. In fact, the Wild Card winner since 2003 – the first year Theo took the esteemed office of Red Sox General Manger – has averaged a record of just about 95-67.

Theo Epstein can’t just wait ’til next year - BostonHerald.com

Apparently - jumped on Hermida on the first day. Of course, there seems to be a lot of activity happening really early this year.

Umpire Strike Zone Analysis - The Basics and Batter Handedness - Beyond the Box Score

2009 World Series: Philadelphia Phillies' Pedro Martinez exits in a hurry - ESPN

Pedro Martinez's outing in Game 6 of the World Series was brief, as was his bizarre session with reporters after he tried to bolt the Phillies' clubhouse without speaking to the media.

All you can do is wear it - Extra Bases

Revisiting 2009: Did we get what we expected? - Fire Brand of the AL

Which catcher would you least like to see go on free agency? - Fire Brand of the American League

Umm... duh. Seems like the question was supposed to be more mind-blowing than it is, but somehow the effect got lost in transcribing it.

Not cuckoo for Coco - Extra Bases

Unless he's really cheap - could help if Ells is still having issues this season. Not sure he's worth the roster spot though...

With Earlier Offseason Regimen, David Ortiz Expects to Slug Away in 2010 - NESN.com

Learning to Pitch with Josh Beckett - Yawkey Way Academy

Haven't seen this info anywhere else - Beckett's becoming a pitcher rather than a thrower with a curve. If he can figure it all out this year, he'd be a lot better prepared for his post-peak years, which should be starting with his next contract.

Hideki Okajima is a Key Part of Red Sox' 2010 Puzzle - NESN.com

Green to have surgery - Full Count

SS = surgically sidelined, apparently.

Ten players the Sox could pursue - Boston.com

Not a lot of surprising names, but there are a few new ideas.

New Elias: Harden, Beltre Type B’s; Figgins an A, so’s Billy Wagner - Clubhouse Insider

A: Figgins, Wagner, Bay (tied Markickass for best AL outfielder - hint at how primitive their evaluation statistics are)

B: Harden, Beltre, Tek, Zaun

Unranked: Gonzo (muhahaha)

Comments, links, ideas on how to convince my parents that it's not harmful for me to write for OTM (I've tried describing it as a critical thinking exercise and a brain after-exercise-stretch), etc. Oh, and I'll be traveling on a five-day weekend, so I might be absent for a day or two. I'm sure one of the editors wouldn't mind bumping a links Fanpost up if anyone finds a bunch of really good links.

10/23 - Mole Day; Wake and Papi Prepare to Come Back With A Vengeance

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 09:00:25 -0000

It's Mole Day!!! /chemistry nerd who wishes he could have set this to publish at 6:02

Wakefield upbeat after good news - Clubhouse Insider

Wakefield looking for 200 wins - Extra Bases

Hope he can get a lot closer after next season - would be nice if he's healthy for the entire year and gets within single digits. As stupid a stat as WINZ is, it still carries a lot value among the media, meaning most fans as well.

Theo: Big Papi Will be Ready for 2010 - Fenway West

Full Count " How a Hitting Coach and Little League Saved Ortiz’ Season

"I said, ‘[Expletive] it – I’m going to play like it’s Little League." I’m serious about this. One day, I woke up and I went, ‘Okay, I guess I’ve got nothing to lose anymore. I’m way behind what I’m normally used to. I’ll go to the field today, and not do [expletive]. I’m just going to act like I’m in Little League,’" Ortiz said late in the regular season.

This explains so much - it probably came naturally to him, being the big kid that he is.

Pros & Cons: Rich Harden - The Bottom Line

He's got pretty good mechanics, so he shouldn't be having any more issues. If he's not getting much interest, he'd be a great option to look into - 28 years old (NG-approved age), good pitches, wouldn't be asked to be a front-line starter.

After the jump, it's one of our fellow SB Nation bloggers vs. a famous former Sox employee (hint: stats), and we continue the theme of the offseason, looking back and forward at the same time.

Jason Bay vs. Matt Holliday, Bill James vs. devil_fingers: Free Agent Projection Showdown - Driveline Mechanics

Who is the better free agent in the hot stove season, Matt Holliday or Jason Bay? And what do the Bill James projecions have to say about it?

Double connection to the Sox here: the decision between Bay and Holliday, and a look at how well one of the biggest names in sabermetrics is keeping up with the rest of his field.

The 2009 Red Sox Minor League System - Sox Tea Party

Boston is fed through their farm system and the 2009 season proved to be successful for the organization, but how does the system look going forward?

Hope the minor league coverage that USG and others have provided will help y'all recognize at least a few names.

Theo speaks on offseason, Drew, and philosophies - Full Count

Full transcript, for your critical analyzing pleasure. Any hidden messages?

Padres general manager decision may impact Red Sox trade options - Red Sox Monster

In baseball's personnel market, relationships are also important. Be it because of personal comfort, previous success or shared values, certain teams seem to make trades with the Red Sox more frequently, while others are more likely to leave a flaming bag of poo on Theo Epstein's door step (I'm looking at you, Colorado).

Pretty funny look at Hoyer's departure to San Diego and its impacts.

An MLB Infield's Greatest Offensive Season - Bleacher Report

Cool little history lesson - it'd be interesting to see if anyone can disprove the claim that this is the best though.

Odds & Ends: Parker, Okajima, Kikuchi, La Russa - MLBTradeRumors.com

Red Sox reliever Hideki Okajima has dismissed agent Peter Greenberg in favor of Boston-based Joe Rosen, according to a Japanese report passed along by NPB Tracker's Ryo Shinkawa. Shinkawa takes this as a sign Okajima wants to stay with the Red Sox. He is already under team control through 2012 as an arbitration-eligible player.

Yusei Kikuchi's NPB-vs.-MLB decision seems to be coming within a few days, says Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker.

So my interpretation of the translation wasn't horribly wrong. Anxious about Kikuchi's decision, too - could be a good indicator of how the Dice-K effect has trickled down.

Zach Daeges looks to resume promising career following ankle surgery - projo.com

BOSTON –– Red Sox outfield prospect Zach Daeges is recovering well following ankle surgery to remove an extra bone in his foot last month, and expects that the problem that caused him to miss the entire season is behind him.

"It’s going good. I just got out of the boot the other day, so it’s going good," Daeges said from his Iowa home.

Based on Jed's situation, this means that Daeges will never amount to anything right? We should be surprised that he was even able to remove the boot without snapping his ankle?

Boston Red Sox Fans Fear a New York Yankees World Series - The Faster Times

I asked some Red Sox bloggers about how they were holding up over the possibility of the Yankees winning a World Championhip. Guess what? They're not happy.

Again, Go Phils!

I want to see Avogadro's number of comments on this post - links, comments, homework problems will all be addressed if left here.

10/21 - Upsetting the Norm

bs.uf15bosox9bears23 — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:00:32 -0000

Ted Williams Halloween Costume: Proof That His Legacy Has Been Destroyed - Masshole Sports

So... very... wrong.

Soccer at Fenway? - Extra Bases

Wakefield surgery [today] - Clubhouse Insider

Good luck, Timmeh. Hope everything goes well, so you can continue to disrupt lineups for days after your start.

岡島に新代理人、再契約へ地元に強いローゼン氏：ＭＬＢ：スポーツ報知

６年間の保有権を持つレ軍が、来季再契約を提示するのは確実。新たな契約を結ぶ上で、岡島は決意をした。「契約のことで、僕と代理人との間に理解の行き違いがあった。それについてきちんと説明がなく、苦労した」。ピーター・グリーンバーグ氏との代理人契約を解除した。

Or,

It is secure the [re] troop who has the possession right of 6 years to come and, to present seasonal re-contract.When concluding new contract, the Oka island determined."With thing of contract, me and there was the crossing each other of understanding with the representatives.There is no explanation securely concerning that, suffered hardship".Representative contract with Peter [gurinbagu] was cancelled.

So, in translation of the translation, it sounds like Oki wants to come back. EDIT: Or he fired his agent - more likely. Thanks, USG. If anyone can read Japanese and provide a better translation, please inform us of anything interesting that assorted online translators (AKA: The Sandy Method) missed.

Jason Bay or Matt Holliday on the Red Sox? It may be neither of the above - Red Sox Monster

Ooh. Best to cover every avenue, I guess.

After the jump, I try to avoid butchering any more translations and we will look at the future, from a programming note to a revolution within the game.

Chat with Red Sox Hitting Coach Dave Magadan - Full Count

Where'd that guy that wanted Magadan fired go? I bet he'd love to get his chance to speak his mind to the man himself. Open the time slot in your calendars anyways.

Japanese prep LHP still considering Sox - Extra Bases

Hurray for no new.... news.

Separating the Sox - BaseballAmerica.com

Iglesias, Kelly share position, organization, but little else

Thanks to Hix for the link. Some comments have already been made on this in yesterday's Filter, but it never hurts to make sure people see the good stuff.

Inside Baseball - Technology Review

As assistant GM of the St. Louis Cardinals, John Abbamondi '93 revels in the data analysis that goes into fielding a winning team.

Hurrah for MIT - blackjack training, sabermetric revolutions, and temporary tattoos in an attempt to lure potential students.

Comments, links, insomnia-defeating techniques - anything you think is relevant.

Dissecting the Red Sox Roster: Pitching

Ben Buchanan — Wed, 14 Oct 2009 11:01:09 -0000

More photos » by Elise Amendola - AP

Make no mistake, Jon Lester is the current and future ace of this Red Sox staff. Sorry, Beckett, but it's time to pass the torch. (AP Photo/Elise Amendola)

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I was originally going to post this the day we lost-I had written it as something of a therapeutic exercise-before I realized that this might be a "the body is still warm" situation. I thought that fit with the title. Anyways, we've all had time to cool off, time to grieve, and I think it's about time we move on. The stove is warming up, so let's get right to work, starting with a player-by-player review of the current and free-agent bound Red Sox. Who's going, who's staying, and who has trade value.

Daniel Bard: As a young, cost controlled player, Bard provides an immense positive for the Red Sox in the pen. Groomed as a closer throughout his career, Bard may not be ready yet, but he certainly gives the Sox flexibility in the event that Papelbon does become a sought-after commodity, both in the decision to act on a potential trade, and in the pieces they may get back, since they would not necessarily need a closer in return.

Josh Beckett: In the final year of his contract, Beckett actually has a lot to prove. Beckett has largely been living off his 2007 reputation with the Sox. While he was by no means bad this year, his 4.03 ERA in 2008 is not what we expect of an ace-type pitcher, nor is his 3.86 this year. Looking further into the stats, he's giving up quite a few more walks and homers, and striking out fewer of late too. This has lead to a steadily rising FIP from 3.08 in 2007 to 3.24 in 2008 and 3.63 in 2009. His tRA has also risen dramatically from 3.09 in '07 to 4.57 in '09. Ultimately, the Sox cannot approach Beckett's free agency with the idea that he's a necessary commodity. 2 years ago this idea might seem ridiculous, but as is Beckett may be a very replaceable pitcher for the money he will want.

Clay Buchholz: With his salary in check and his potential finally starting to show, Buchholz should be a valuable part of the Red Sox for years to come, whether as a future ace that many project him as, or as a solid #3 man. The real question with Buchholz is what his trade value is. There haven't been many trades mentioned throughout this last year that haven't involved the young hurler, but it seems that the Sox and potential trade partners just cannot agree on his worth. While his much-improved showing during this regular season may have raised his stock, it's still questionable whether the rest of the league sees him as being worth as much as the Sox feel he is. I doubt the Sox deal him unless he gets value near that of a potential ace.

Paul Byrd: The Byrd man is gone, possibly for good. After getting no interest from anyone until the Sox were forced to sign him due to injuries and poor results from FA signings, Byrd may even choose to go out on his own terms and retire. Either way, there are better options for the Sox in the offseason.

Manny Delcarmen: Around the trade deadline, the Sox had a great chance to get value for Delcarmen. Now they'd be lucky to get any trade offers. Even with a good start to the season, teams would need to see prolonged success to believe in him. Given the talent he's got, it would be smart for the Sox to keep him on as a low-leverage bullpen man if the rest of the pen gives them the option, and then trade him the second a team shows significant interest. He's still under team control for a number of years though, so it's not a big risk (yes, I know, low-risk high-reward is a crap buzzword right now).

Jon Lester: Not much to say here. He's our ace, he's young, he's under team control for many years. He's one of the most definite of the Red Sox' pieces.

Daisuke Matsuzaka: Much has been made of Daisuke's difficulties with the management and coaching staff of the Red Sox. And certainly the Sox can't be happy with him after he all-but-sacrificed his season with the team to pitch in the WBC. He is young, he isn't too expensive (well, not now after the posting fee) and he does have plenty of ability, but there are many questions as far as Daisuke's future is concerned. If Daisuke recommits himself to the team this offseason, then perhaps the Sox will recommit themselves to the idea of the Wunderkind Daisuke. But if the Sox can get good value on him, despite their weak bargaining position, they may jump at it, even if it does mean hurting their position in the Japanese prospect market.

Hideki Okajima: Okajima will be entering his first year of arbitration-not free agency-and as such is likely not going anywhere anytime soon. However, Sox fans do have to question how good Oki is going to be from here-on-out. 2009 was a down year for Oki, as his ERA rose to 3.39, though his peripherals were largely unchanged. He lost a few strikeouts, and gave up 2 more homers (though, when you're giving up 6 on a year, that's not a small deal), but his HR/FB% was up similarly, and his BABIP was up too, suggesting it might be some luck. The fear has to be that the league has figured out Oki and his bizarre delivery. In this case, only time will tell. If Okajima can return to form, it'd be a significant boost to the Red Sox' pen.

Jonathan Papelbon: After blowing up to end the season on a horrible note, plenty of Sox fans were calling for Paps' head. The post-loss fervor seems to have died down, but the idea is still out there. Papelbon has not been as good as he was in 2007, though he has by no means been bad, average, or even just above average. Let's make no mistake, he's one of the games best. However, the Sox are going to lose him one way or another in a couple of years, and Daniel Bard certainly has the stuff to replace him soon, if not now. Ultimately, it seems likely the Sox very quietly inform the league that his name is out there, and then if someone decides to overpay for a relief pitcher due to the "closer" title, give it a long, hard look.

Ramon Ramirez: Another cost-controlled pen arm, Ramirez started the season hot but struggled as the year went on. While his 2.84 ERA is still very low, his high walk rate and middling strikeout rate lead to a high FIP and ERA. If Ramirez can return to early-season form next year, he'll be a valuable part of the pen. If he returns to being a guy they can't trust in late innings, though, the organization will have to choose when to cut and run.

Takashi Saito: Saito is an interesting case. The team holds a $2.5 million option on him, and while his tiny ERA would seem to make this an easy decision, there are many things that suggest otherwise. The first is that his peripherals are universally worse. His K/9 are down, his BB/9 up, his HR/9 up. His FIP and tRA have risen tons compared to his career averages, and he seems to have lost his ability to induce ground balls. The team has also shied away from using him in pressure situations, and if he's only gonna pitch blowouts and 6^th innings than he's likely not worth the money it would take to keep him-especially if his numbers regress towards what his process suggests they should.

Note: South Coast Ghost correctly points out that the option is actually worth quite a bit more, as Saito fulfilled all his incentives for remaining on the active roster, as well as two for innings pitched. This brings the option value up to $6 million with $1.5 million in incentives remaining to be had. If it was a tough call for Sox management before, it's even harder now.

Billy Wagner: To the Red Sox, Wagner represents draft picks. Beautiful, beautiful draft picks. A type-A free agent, Wagner will net the Sox the top draft pick of any team that signs him, and a supplementary pick after the end of the 1^st round-assuming he doesn't retire. While earlier, it was questionable whether the 38-year-old Tommy-John patient would garner enough interest for a team to sacrifice a pick, 26 strikeouts in 16 innings should turn a few heads, not to mention a 1.72 ERA. The Sox have already agreed to pass on Wagner's $8 million team option, and it seems unlikely he will accept arbitration if the Sox offer it, since his reason for demanding they pass on his option was his desire to close. In essence, the Sox have a chance to recycle Carter and Lora for first-round talent. Now that's a deal.

Tim Wakefield: As per usual, Wakefield outperformed his 4 million dollar option, and as usual it would be foolish of the Sox not to pick up his contract if he's willing to come back. But given his status as a perpetual injury risk, the Sox had also better be sure they have a back up ready. If he chooses to call it a career, then it will be the end of a long and fruitful career that set the bar for loyalty.

Game 1: Pedroia's Homer the Difference, Sox top Rays 3-1

Ben Buchanan — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 19:32:36 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Victor Martinez, right, tags out Tampa Bay Rays' Gabe Gross at home plate in the seventh inning of the first game of a baseball doubleheader, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

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Clay Buchholz threw 7 strong innings, taking only 97 pitches to record 21 outs, giving up 5 hits, 3 walks, and an earned run while recording 5 strikeouts. The only earned run was scored on an infield single by Jason Bartlett. Dustin Pedroia attempted an off-balance throw to first, but didn't have any real shot at getting the out. The ball would briefly get away from Casey Kotchman, and Gabe Gross would try to score from second, but a strong throw by Kotchman and a great block by Victor Martinez would cut him down.

Unfortunately for Clay's record, the Sox didn't do much better against Matt Garza for the first 7 innings, scoring only one run in the 6th when Victor Martinez singled in Dustin Pedroia, who had doubled high off the monster. It wasn't until the 8th that the Sox did any serious damage, as David Ortiz, pinch hitting for Nick Green, doubled over the head of right fielder Gabe Gross. Joey Gathright would pinch run, but his speed wouldn't be needed as Dustin Pedroia connected for his second hit of the game, and 13th home run of the season, depositing Garza's 2-0 fastball into the bullpen.

Hideki Okajima would pitch a perfect 8th, and Jonathan Papelbon closed out the game, allowing an infield hit to Akinori Iwamura but otherwise striking out the side.

The Red Sox will have Jon Lester on the mound for the second part of the double-header. The Rays respond with James Shields, who would have faced Lester had the game on Friday gone off as planned. Lester had a shaky start in the first on Friday, loading the bases with 1 out before the game was called due to rain. Hopefully he can take advantage of his clean slate tonight.

Game 131: Papelbon shuts down Rays for win

Randy Booth — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 03:42:11 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Kevin Youkilis, right, gets a high-five from teammate David Ortiz after Youkilis hit an eighth-inning home run off Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Dan Wheeler during a baseball game Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2009, in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

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Final - 9.1.2009	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Boston Red Sox	0	1	0	3	1	1	0	1	1	8	12	1
Tampa Bay Rays	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	4	11	3
WP: Jon Lester (11 - 7) SV: Jonathan Papelbon (33) LP: Andy Sonnanstine (6 - 8)

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Red Sox vs Rays boxscore

Jonathan Papelbon makes grown men cry.

With the Sox up by just three, the Rays loaded the bases against Hideki Okajima in the 8th with no outs. That's when Papelbon came in and shut the door for two consecutive innings to give the Sox a 8-4 victory.

Jon Lester started and held the Rays in check. He went six innings, allowed seven hits, two runs, two walks and struck out nine. He was effective in the win but, better yet, the offense didn't miss a beat, either.

Jacoby Ellsbury, Victor Martinez, Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell each had two hits in the win. Youk, J.D. Drew and Jason Bay all had home runs. Drew's was a two-run shot that broke a 1-1 tie in the fourth inning.

While Oki really blew (he gave up two runs without recording an out), Billy Wagner pitched his second inning with the Sox and struck out two while not surrendering a hit or walk. While this could be premature, at the moment, Wagner has been effective. That means only good things for the Sox.

Minus Oki's stint, this was a complete effort by the Sox. Lester, Wagner and Paps all pitched well while the offense continues to click. Finally, I think everything is coming together for the Red Sox. We've waited all season and I think we're finally seeing it.

Josh Beckett on the hill Wednesday.