SB Nation - James Shields

How Much Could Carl Pavano Get Through Arbitration?

Jesse — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 04:02:21 -0000

Six million? That's alright. Ten million? That's outta sight. Right?

When the Twins offered Carl Pavano arbitration on Tuesday, it didn't exactly come as a surprise. He was the only Minnesota free agent to receive an offer, and well, that really didn't come as a surprise either.

Pavano and his agent have made it clear that they intend to test the open market, but for a guy who A) has said he wouldn't mind a return to Minnesota, B) has said he's not really interested in finding himself on another new team, C) probably wants to play for a contender and D) would be entering a free agent market where salaries could be suppressed (hurrah collusion conspiracy theories!), does he really want to turn down the opportunity that's presented itself to him?

The burly right-hander turns 34 in early January, and is coming off of his first not just productive but healthy season since 2004 when he was still with the Marlins. I don't want to say the end is in sight for Carl, but realistically there are way more years in baseball behind him than in front of him.

We've talked before about how FanGraphs tends to over-value a player's production in terms of dollars, and it's no different with Pavano as they estimate that on the open market his production was worth $16.5 million dollars. Obviously there's no way his numbers would be worth that much money to replace. But he was probably worth more than the $1.5 million base he was on the books for in 2009.

Here's Pavano and six other guys who had similar seasons across a number of different categories; some are closer than others.

Player	Age	Team	IP	FIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/G	WHIP	FG Dollars
Carl Pavano	33	Indians/ Twins	199.1	4.00	6.64	1.76	3.77	1.17	1.37	$16.5
Nick Blackburn	27	Twins	205.1	4.37	4.29	1.79	2.39	1.09	1.37	$13.3
Mark Buehrle	30	White Sox	213.1	4.46	4.43	1.90	2.33	1.14	1.25	$15.2
James Shields	27	Rays	219.2	4.02	6.84	2.13	3.63	1.19	1.32	$18.3
Cole Hamels	25	Phillies	193.2	3.72	7.81	2.00	3.91	1.12	1.29	$16.9
Ryan Dempster	32	Cubs	200.0	3.87	7.74	2.93	2.65	0.99	1.31	$16.4
Scott Baker	27	Twins	200.0	4.08	7.29	2.16	3.38	1.26	1.19	$15.9

Blackburn was under team control last summer, but the rest of this fine cast of characters were all pitching under a contract in 2009:

Pavano: $1.5 M
Buehrle: $14.0 M
Shields: $1.5 M
Hamels: $4.35 M
Dempster: $8 M
Baker: $750 K

Immediately you see the problem. All of these guys are at different stages of their careers and at different contractual stages, and it's not realistic to just take the average of the six salaries for an estimate, which is just over $5 million. Or is it?

Here's a list of arbitration-eligible starters from last winter who were 30 or older, and what kind of a contract they received, although this won't help either because it's not free-agent arbitration:

Mike Gonzalez, 30, 1 year/$3.45 M
Brandon Backe, 30, 1 year/$1.55 M
Wandy Rodriguez, 30, 1 year/$2.6 M
Chris Capuano, 30, minor-league contract
Justin Duchscherer, 31, 1 year/$3.9 M
Todd Wellemeyer, 30, 1 year/$4.05 M

Which of course means Pavano is, more than likely, due more money than Wellemeyer received last year in his final year of arbitration. But how much?

A 34-year old Braden Looper made $4.75 million in 2009 after signing a contract with the Brewers. Coming out of his age-31 season Dempster signed a pretty substantial four-year deal with the Cubs. Randy Wolf (32) made a shade under $5 million this season, and Pavano's former rotation-mate Brady Penny (31 last season) made about the same. Jamie Moyer (older than baseball itself) made $6.5 million.

Those are the kind of guys Pavano can be grouped with: veterans who can provide innings and still be effective without breaking the bank and/or being the staff ace. So maybe $5 million doesn't actually sound so bad for an arbitration offer after all.

If that's all arbitration could garner Pavano, maybe he really might be better taking his chances on the market if he is concerned about the dollars.

Conclusions

With uncharacteristically low contracts offered last season, there has been a lot of talk that teams in baseball would rather non-tender certain arbitration-eligible players and forego the remaining year(s) of team control than pay what has suddenly become a price higher than market value. It's a financial luxury teams are choosing not to take advantage of. If this is indeed the case, some veterans who aren't sure of what the market will provide may be tempted to accept that arbitration offer.

Additionally, Pavano's recent history is blemished with injuries and an entire lost season, and that leads me to believe that the chances of his payday in arbitration being closer to $10 million than to $5 million aren't very high. But realistically, after the season he had in '09, I have little doubt that he could find a team willing to offer a two or three-year deal worth that $5 million...per year. If not more (I have some doubts about a continued suppression of spending in free agency this year). So in spite of the possibly lowered expectations on the free agent market and a guaranteed payday via the arbitration route, Carl will probably have the option of multiple years. Personally, that's not something I want to see the Twins take on.

It was a good move by Minnesota to make Pavano the offer, and oddly enough it puts them in a no-lose situation. If he accepts they'll get him for one year at what is likely to be a price that the team can easily absorb, and if not then the Twins receive a compensatory draft pick next June and the freedom to go after somebody else with that allocated cash. As long as this doesn't somehow turn into a multi-year, mega-millions fiasco, this is a good situation.

How Much Are The Rays Saving On James Shields?

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 11:00:13 -0000

More photos » by Paul J. Bereswill - AP

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It has been two full seasons since James Shields signed his potential seven year, $44 million dollar contract. In reality, all that is guaranteed is four years and $11.25 million, but the way things look now, an option year or two is likely. The Rays way is all about getting value for dollars. We need value, but lack the dollars.

The Shields extension has been lauded in the sabermetric community as being one of the best deals in recent years. And it really is in terms of real dollars for production. Using WAR dollars, Shields has been worth $37.6 million dollars over the past two seasons while earning just $2.5. That's a fantastic value, but it's not "real" dollars.

James Shields will undoubtedly earn his contract. In fact, he already has. In his career, he has given the Rays $63 million dollars worth of production for $2.9 million dollars. If he maxes out the contract (years and dollars), his WAR value would be somewhere between $100-$150 million dollars.

But how many -- if any -- real dollars are the Rays saving?

I'm not usually one for estimations and assumptions, but for this post I use some simple ones. Let's toss out a few guidelines.

First, estimated WAR. In his full seasons (2007-2009), Shields has posted WAR of 4.5, 4.3, and most recently 4.1. For the first part of the estimation I'll assume the -0.2 WAR trend continues over the next few seasons. In the next portion, I'll use the standard -0.5 WAR adjustment.

Second, estimated salary. A few things for the seasons considered to be arbitration years. I used the 20/40/60% scale to estimate the amount of the raise. To get the salary amount I took the estimated number of WAR and used the 10% WAR escalating scale. Since 2009 actually happened, and we know Shields earned a 4.1 WAR, I'll use that as an example.

Let's take that 4.1 and multiply it by the value of one WAR, which is recognized as 4.4 in 2009. We get an estimated salary of $18.04. Since he would be arbitration 1 this off-season, we'll say that his salary should be 20% of that $18.04 million dollar estimate, or $3.6 million dollars. From there you can figure out the rest of the table.

Est1	WAR	WAR Value	Est. Salary	Arb Raise
2009	4.1	4.4	18.04	3.608
2010	3.9	4.8	18.72	7.488
2011	3.7	5.2	19.24	11.544

That's using the Shield trend of -0.2 WAR going forward. Here is the standard -0.5 WAR.

Est2	WAR	WAR Value	Est. Salary	Arb Raise
2009	4.1	4.4	18.04	3.608
2010	3.6	4.8	17.28	6.912
2011	3.1	5.2	16.12	9.672

Now that we have the estimated salaries, we can compare them to actual salaries. Another quick note here, Shields' contract maxes out at 2014. For the purpose of this exercise I'm buying out the final two seasons of the contract for the stated $1.5 million dollar buyout.

	Est1	Actual	Savings
2010	3.6	2.5	1.1
2011	7.5	4.25	3.25
2012	11.5	8.5*	3
Total	22.6	15.25	7.35
	Est2	Actual	Savings
2010	3.6	2.5	1.1
2011	6.9	4.25	2.65
2012	9.6	8.5*	1.1
Total	20.1	15.25	4.85

*Includes $7 million dollar base salary for 2012 + $1.5 million dollar buyout of future years.

Because of the extension Shields has earned $2.5 million dollars over the last two seasons. These seasons were team controlled, meaning the Rays basically could name their own price. Let's estimate (conservatively) that he would've earned $800k over those seasons and subtract that from the savings. Even with the conservative estimates of -0.5 WAR decline, and team controlled salary years, Shields's extension should save the Rays in the neighborhood of $4-6 million dollars. Of course, he could easily exceed these projections as well as come short. For most teams, the difference may not seem like a whole lot in terms of real dollars, but the Rays could do alot with an extra $5 million; also keep in mind the value aspect.

All in all, the Shields extension remains just another example of "ball on a budget."

Top 30 Starts of 2009 - Part 6

Andy Hellicksonstine — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 12:00:19 -0000

by Chris O'Meara - AP

Longoria: Dude, relax, Andy H just said you had the two best starts of the year. Garza: F*$# YEAH ::spit:: (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

View full size photo »

This is it, for those of you that have been patiently waiting to see the best Rays pitching performances of the year. If you read through the last installment, then you noticed that I have moved to a scoring system. Let's take a look at the standings:

Shields	104
Niemann	61
Price	60
Kazmir	40
Garza	29
Davis	17
Sonnanstine	14

James Shields has been running away with it based on the quantity as well as the quality of his starts. Jeff Niemann has also had a lot of starts in here, but less so of the top-tier quality. Wade Davis has had a few appearances, which is surprising since he only had a few total on the year, but when we think of great performances we think of Matt Garza. So far he has had three starts looked at (7, 28, & 29). I found this somewhat surprising, because as some of you know I track game-to-game FIP and wOBA for pitchers to reach an estimate of deserved wins. Matty tore up the wOBA wins approaching 20 and was a tick behind Shields on the FIP-side. Well, if you're a fan of The Crane, then you won't be disappointed as he comes on like gangbusters here. First up however...

5) James Shields at New York Mets on June 20 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.00

2.01

0.155

This was before the Mets became a full blown AAAA team so you can't chalk it up totally to that, but only allowing three guys on the bases is quite the achievement over 7 full innings. Broken record alert, but when James keeps the ball in the yard, he is as close to an ace as we've ever had. He needed to be on that day as he was facing Johan Santana, whom is a certified ace and bound to give the Rays fits being weird-handed with a great change. After giving up the run in the 2nd he would mow down 16 of the next 17 before being yanked for Mountain Man Dan Wheeler to start the 8th. I like that Shieldsy only threw 5 cutters on the night, only one of which was in the zone:

via brooksbaseball.net

He was basically 2:1 on the fastball:changeup and closer to 3:1 on the fastball:curve/slider. This is what I like to see out of James. He was able to work ahead throwing 66% strikes on the night with his change leading the way in whiffs. See the highlights link above for grown-men looking like little leaguers.

4) Wade Davis at Baltimore on September 17 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.59

0.185

Wade was told that if he threw strikes that it would come, so as he eased their pain, he was able to go the distance. He didn't have a catch with his ghost of a father after the game, but Wade did give us a glimpse of the future in an absolute gem of a performance. Coming off a brilliant debut, and a thorough thrashing in his sophomore start, most folks weren't sure what to make of Big Nasty (Yes, I am coining this nickname for Mr. Davis). They were rewarded with a CGSO. The fastball sat at 92 while issuing 5 whiffs (10 total on 124 pitches). He threw a ton of fastball, both in, and out of the zone, but his curve, slider, and cutter he had great control of throwing a combined 34 strikes on 44 pitches with 5 whiffs. The video above shows just how filthy his breaking ball is. I like his fastball, because when it's on it has that same ride that Garza gets off the plate to lefties. They can either leave it there and take the occasional strike or foul it off and then get fooled on the breaking ball.

via brooksbaseball.net

That speed chart is absolutely gorgeous. I want to make babies with it. Big Nasty's hardest pitch came in the low 120's while maintaining velocity throughout the game. Granted it was his 3rd start, but he had pitched all year at Durham, so it's not like he was completely fresh. At the moment, he compares very much to Matty Garza, in my mind. A little bigger, the fastball isn't quite as good, but the bendy stuff brings women to their knees. Wade reminds us that with the death of one season comes the hope and promise at the birth of the next. Personally, I can't wait to see him next year.

3) Jeff Niemann vs. Kansas City Royals on June 3 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.48

0.084

The Big Nyquil barely had to break a sweat in earning his 1st CGSO of the season on a two-hitter. He threw his fastball and slider for strikes, while dropping his curve out of the zone on his way to garnering 12 whiffs. In his 9 innings of work, the most pitches he threw in an inning was 14 in the 5th with 4 separate innings of 9 pitches. That is straight dominance averaging 11 pitches/inning against a Major League ballclub (OK the Royals.) I love the following chart:

via i273.photobucket.com

I have shaded the inner-part of the plate because you can see that Niems was just pounding fastballs in there. He threw a couple of back-door sliders, and two curves, but for the most part he was blowing it by righties on the inner 1/8 of the plate. Speaking of the fastball, he threw 3 of his first 10 pitches over 94 MPH, before settling in to sit at 92. Congrats on a phenomenal start, Jeff, let's see more of these in 2010.

2) Matt Garza at Toronto on July 24th Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

9.00

1.15

0.167

Here's a Matt Garza performance that shows why I'm not a fan of looking at R/ER as the sole indicator of a great performance. Yes, he gave up two runs. After retiring the first six batters, in the bottom of the 3rd, Garz gave up a lead-off single to Rios whom managed to get to 2nd on a throwing error by Longo. Garza induced a flyout to center and then one to right, in which, Rios moved over to 3rd. A 2-out single by Scutaro brought the run in and a double by the next batter, an on-fire Aaron Hill, led to the second run coming in.

Now think about this for a minute. Garza gave up two singles and a double in the inning and in the other 8 he only gave up another single and a double with no walks on the entire game. My point is that I don't think 8 brilliant innings should be completely thrown out because of one inning where he got a little nicked. This same thing can be applied to James Shields. In a typical 7 inning performance from James he will have 4-5 outstanding innings, 1 clunker, and 1-2 where he has to work himself out of trouble. Major League hitters are so good at making adjustments that virtually every pitcher will get touched here and there. The good ones find ways to minimize the damage and then keep their pitch counts down in other innings, as Matty did throwing 13 COMBINED pitches in the 5th and 6th.

How pretty is this:

via brooksbaseball.net

From pitch 90 on, he through all but 4 fastballs while virtually linearly increasing his velocity until the end. Garza is a stud because this is a common theme with him. He can bring ched whenever he wants including late in the game. On the game, he got 10 whiffs throwing mostly the fastball (72%) and the slider (16%). If you watched the video above, then you saw that his change was a devastating weapon, despite only being thrown 6 times. I saw two guys just frozen by it's unexpectedness and another trying to cool off the fans with his mighty swing-and-miss.

A Longo two-run double in the top of the 10th allowed Maddon to turn the ball over to the Iceman. Garza's day was finished, but he still picked up the win. I found this pretty interesting:

via i273.photobucket.com

I count 5 K's in the upper-left hand portion of the quadrant, while there is a double, a single, a lineout and most of the other decent contact in the overlap of the 2 zones. Not surprising that when you throw it down the middle guys are going to get wood (on it). I really like all the contact (or K's) that he got on the fringes of the strike zone. Even the best stuff means nothing if you can't control AND COMMAND it. It looks like on this day, Matt Garza had great stuff and knew how to use it.

1) Matt Garza vs. Boston Red Sox on April 30 Box Highlights Pitch F/x

HBP

FIP

wOBA

7.67

0.93

0.068

This shall forever be known as the "Jacoby Ellsbury's Parents Should Never Have Met" game. Garz faced one over the minimum due to a nifty double play, that a certain elf-like second sacker didn't appreciate, against one of the best offenses in the Majors that was running on pure ethanol at the time. The video shows guys whiffing, guys getting rocked to sleep, and a bunch of grown men taking half cuts and check swings, the ultimate white flag. Matty didn't throw a change, relying on the fastball (75% usage, 7.4% whiffs), slider (15% usage, 25% whiffs), and curveball (10%).

via i273.photobucket.com

Now I'm no artist, so the ovals aren't exactly a bench-marked size to match with all these other graphs, but I see one pitch, YES ONE, that's in the overlap area of this chart. Interestingly, using the outcomes chart below, it looks like that lone slider was a strikeout. Perhaps this is an example of game theory, in that, he hadn't gone to that well all day, and the batter was stunned when he saw a beautiful slider nestle it's way right in there. Stumbling upon this way to look at pitches just today, I can't confidently say anything broadly, but my guess would be that if you stay out of that center diamond, you're going to find great success. Brooks has Garza's fastball moving right-to-left 2.69 inches and riding 11.55 inches up, compared to a normal ball. That can help explain all those fastball in (to righties) and up in that upper-left hand quadrant. I only see two fastballs in the zone below the 2 foot line (Pedroia's eye-line if it helps you to visualize) with many curves out of the zone. Though he didn't get any whiffs, using these two starts I think you can see a pattern where Garz throws the slider for strikes and tries to get whiffs with the curve out of the zone. This has to create a synergistic reaction where the batter sees bendy stuff and can't form an opinion on whether it'll be in the zone or not, just based on pitch type.

Without the shading this time, you can see that The Crane was living on the fringes of the plate for the deciding pitch of most PA's:

via brooksbaseball.net

Much like the #2 start on the countdown, Matt had over-whelming stuff on this night, but he also used it correctly. He won't always sit at 92.7, touching 95 with the heater, but if Matt can throw to the corners and live on the fringes of the plate (assuming competent umpiring, always a crapshoot there) he can take that next level in 2010. We've seen absolute brilliance from Matt Garza on many occasions, but his good numbers have kind of stagnated in the good range. Looking at starts like these last two, he has all the weapons to get himself into the great level of starters. For the team's sake, I hope that this upcoming season is the one where he takes that step forward to become the borderline ace that we've only seen glimpses of in the past.

This concludes the top-30 starts of 2009. I hope you enjoyed my labor of love. Here are the final standings for our pitchers:

Shields

Niemann

Garza

Price

Davis

Kazmir

Sonnanstine

130

Pretty clear who our number 1 starter is, whether you agree with his performance or now, James Shields is a baller of the highest order. In 2009 Niemann and Garza appear to be competent #2's with Price a clear #3 starter. Kazmir and Sonnanstine were pretty much a drag on the entire pitching staff, but luckily one's gone and the other is already pumping iron and running steps. The WILD CARD! here is Wade Davis. We saw some awesome stuff, albeit in a small sample. If he can match what Niemann or Price gave us in 09, while the other two continue to progress, we're looking at a pretty filthy starting rotation.

As always, thanks to Baseball-reference.com, brooksbaseball.net, and MLB.com, now that we are into the worst part of the calendar year, something that I find interesting is to go on MLB.com and watch some of their videos. Find a player you like and they will run one-after-another throughout the season. So many games get played that it's easy to forget about some of the better plays that were made. It's free-of-charge, and I've only seen about one advertisement per 100 videos.

Matt Garza's Slider is Filthy

R.J. Anderson — Mon, 26 Oct 2009 00:01:49 -0000

These are all pitches thrown at least 200 times (except in Wade Davis' case, the limit was 50). Note: Whiff% is (Swinging Strikes/Total Pitches)*100 and rounded to two decimal points.

To avoid making this a data dump, here's some commentary:

James Shields doesn't have wowing stuff. If you've watched him since 2006 then the newness factor has also wore off. In ways he's undervalued by his own fan base because when watching him few things amaze you. He's a workhouse, a pretty dependable one, but he throws a fastball that averages a little over 90 MPH and an assortment of other pitches. Somehow, someway, Shields has three pitches within the top six. The change-up that made him, a curve, and his cutter. His slider and other fastballs rank far lower and seem to contribute to his so-so reputation. It doesn't help that when he seems to miss with those pitches they wind up in the sky and land far away either.
Matt Garza has the most contactless pitch on staff. The pitches people really know him for - his hard heat and knee-buckling curve - are less impressive. This seems odd.
Wade Davis is just as human as anyone else in this list, he just looks better while pitching. Small sample size and all, I'm not sure how he can possess this stuff and have such mediocre whiff rates in Durham.
Jeff Niemann uses his fastball something like 70% of the time. This is bad because A) he becomes predictable and B) it's his worst pitch. Unsurprisingly, it rates near the bottom of the list. Shields has probably never heard of DRB, but please, James, if you're somehow reading this, teach Niemann the ways of working around your fastball.
David Price's change-up was his least hittable pitch. What?

The 2009 DRB Awards: The Scott Kazmir Memorial Award

R.J. Anderson — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 10:00:20 -0000

Also known as: the best starting pitcher on staff.

This one should be a lot more difficult to choose.

Poll

Who was the Rays best starter this year?

James Shields: 204.2 IP, 4.06 FIP, 4.71 tRA, 3.6 WAR

65 votes

Matt Garza: 192.1 IP, 4.11 FIP, 4.33 tRA, 3.3 WAR

78 votes

Jeff Niemann: 165.2 IP, 3.94 FIP, 4.29 tRA, 3.1 WAR

210 votes

353 votes | Poll has closed

Prospect Prelude: Jeremy Hellickson

Jeremy Kempter — Sun, 20 Sep 2009 22:58:39 -0000

The front office here at fake teams has given me the call-up.

I’m going to write about minor leaguers and prospects, pre- and post-hype, coming to a big league city soon.

From now until the end of the season, we’re going to run down some kids to consider stashing away as keepers for 2010, assuming you have the room. (And I’m assuming you’re in a keeper league; if you’re not, you’re missing out, big time.) Roster these guys now – let’s also they are available already in Yahoo or whichever site you use – and gauge their value when the hype starts kicking into high gear next spring.

I’m not going to waste your time waxing poetic about Stephen Strasberg or Neftali Feliz or even Brian Matusz. I’m addressing deeper mixed leagues where you need to do your homework to stay ahead of the pack. After all, it’s a lot less expensive to land a player before he becomes a star than after.

Our first installment is on Jeremy Hellickson, a 22-year-old right-hander in the Tampa Bay organization. He was drafted in the fourth round in 2005 out of his Iowa high school.

I actually drafted his teammate Wade Davis heading into this season and waited impatiently as the Rays did their usual foot-dragging to promote their talented youngsters. Needless to say, I dropped Davis, he was immediately scooped up and I’ve been kicking myself ever since.

But, it seems, Hellickson could be better.

Baseball people are split on Hellickson’s potential. His velocity (typically topping out at 93 mph) doesn’t dazzle like Davis’ (95 mph), and he’s not the protypical 6-foot-5 either. (He goes about 6-1, 185 pounds.) He's been compared to Roy Oswalt or Tim Hudson, for his size, and his delivery looks a little like Brad Penny's.

Hellickson can crank it up to 94-95, to be fair, but his 79 mph changeup is more effective when it is coupled with a free-and-easy low-90s fastball because his release looks identical. He works off his fastball, but his change is his out pitch. He also has an above-average curveball, and he is working on a sinker.

The digits that really do Hellickson justice are 2009’s 9-2 record, 2.45 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, .178 BAA, 132 strikeouts, in 114 innings across Double- and Triple-A.

And he’s been rollin’ lately, a regular Hellickson on wheels. Check out the strikeout totals from his last four starts: 10, 10, 12, 9. His walk total during that stretch? Five.

And this isn’t a one-year fluke. In five minor league seasons, he’s got a 37-13 mark, 2.71 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 507 K’s and 100 BB’s in 461 innings.

Of course minor league numbers don’t always translate to the bigs. Just ask Yusmeiro Petit.

But Hellickson’s numbers are so sparkling, they could be scuffed up in The Show and still shine. I mean, if you know how to be that successful, some of it has to translate. Plus, he has been praised for his bulldog mentality and even-keeled maturity.

There’s no telling when the aforementioned slow-moving Rays brass will promote this starter to the major league rotation, seeing that James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, David Price and Wade Davis all stand in the way.

But injuries and trades happen, and right now Hellickson can be had for free (or pretty cheap) and is sure to be in or around the top 10 of most prospect lists next spring.

Is James Shields el Diablo Rojo del Mexico?

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 16 Sep 2009 10:15:10 -0000

More photos » by Darren Calabrese - AP

3 months ago: Tampa Bay Rays pitcher James Shields works against the Toronto Blue Jays during the first inning of a baseball game in Toronto on Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2009. (AP Photo/The Canadian Press,Darren Calabrese)

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While messing around with some statistical comparisons, I came across one that I'm pretty sure nobody has ever heard of or even thought of; James Shields is Francisco Cordova.

Who? Francisco Cordova, the old Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher of course. Cordova made 112 starts from age 24-28. He pitched 753.2 innings of 3.96 ERA/4.02 FIP ball over the course of his brief career. So far, James Shields has made 115 starts from age 24-27. He has pitched 753.1 innings of 3.98 ERA/4.01 FIP ball. Somehow after the first 750 plus innings of these pitchers career, those numbers are almost identical.

After doing a little bit of digging, neither pitcher is/was much of a strike out pitcher with Shields edging Cordova with a career K/9 of 7.08 to 6.41. Shields also exhibited better control with a K/BB of 3.64 compared to Cordova's 2.29. Where Cordova made up the different in FIP was HR/9. While Shields's HR/9 stands at 1.16, Cordova came slightly under a homer per nine at .90.

I must admit I do enjoy statistical comparisons such as this one, but in most cases they do little as a predictive measure. And in the case of Shields and Cordova, I hope this is the case. Cordova battled arm injuries in 2000 at the age of 28 and was forced to retire from the Major Leagues. However, he did make a bit of history before leaving the game. On July 12^th, 1997, Cordova pitched the first nine innings of a combined 10 inning no-hitter for the Pirates. According to Wikipedia, this is "the only combined, extra-inning no-hitter in modern MLB history." Cordova can now be found pitching for the Diablos Rojos del Mexico in his native country. Hopefully things will work out better for Shields.

Game 1: Pedroia's Homer the Difference, Sox top Rays 3-1

Ben Buchanan — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 19:32:36 -0000

More photos » by Michael Dwyer - AP

3 months ago: Boston Red Sox's Victor Martinez, right, tags out Tampa Bay Rays' Gabe Gross at home plate in the seventh inning of the first game of a baseball doubleheader, Sunday, Sept. 13, 2009, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)

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Clay Buchholz threw 7 strong innings, taking only 97 pitches to record 21 outs, giving up 5 hits, 3 walks, and an earned run while recording 5 strikeouts. The only earned run was scored on an infield single by Jason Bartlett. Dustin Pedroia attempted an off-balance throw to first, but didn't have any real shot at getting the out. The ball would briefly get away from Casey Kotchman, and Gabe Gross would try to score from second, but a strong throw by Kotchman and a great block by Victor Martinez would cut him down.

Unfortunately for Clay's record, the Sox didn't do much better against Matt Garza for the first 7 innings, scoring only one run in the 6th when Victor Martinez singled in Dustin Pedroia, who had doubled high off the monster. It wasn't until the 8th that the Sox did any serious damage, as David Ortiz, pinch hitting for Nick Green, doubled over the head of right fielder Gabe Gross. Joey Gathright would pinch run, but his speed wouldn't be needed as Dustin Pedroia connected for his second hit of the game, and 13th home run of the season, depositing Garza's 2-0 fastball into the bullpen.

Hideki Okajima would pitch a perfect 8th, and Jonathan Papelbon closed out the game, allowing an infield hit to Akinori Iwamura but otherwise striking out the side.

The Red Sox will have Jon Lester on the mound for the second part of the double-header. The Rays respond with James Shields, who would have faced Lester had the game on Friday gone off as planned. Lester had a shaky start in the first on Friday, loading the bases with 1 out before the game was called due to rain. Hopefully he can take advantage of his clean slate tonight.

A Little Bit of Everything: Tigers 8, Rays 6

Ian Casselberry — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 16:05:54 -0000

More photos » by Steve Nesius - AP

It's not a win until the pitcher who finishes the game gets to pat Gerald Laird on the head. Brandon Lyon had the honors last night, getting the save in an 8-6 win over Tampa.

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Was this the most exciting win of the season? Early on, there was despair, as Armando Galarraga looked like someone who hadn't pitched for a couple of weeks, whose right elbow might still be bothering him a bit. The Rays jumped on him early for a 4-1 lead, powered by Evan Longoria's three-run homer.

The Tigers cut the lead to 4-3, thanks to a Carlos Guillen two-run triple. (Guillen's batting line this season versus James Shields this season: .714/.714/1.857 with two homers and six RBIs.) Tampa tacked on two more runs in the third inning, and Jim Leyland took Galarraga out before the deficit became insurmountable.

Detroit tied the game in the seventh, with a monstrous two-run homer from Alex Avila and RBI single from Placido Polanco. (One of the Tigers' best offensive plays in this series is pinch-running Wilkin Ramirez on second base. That kid rounds the bases fast. And as far as Avila's homer, that thing might have shown up on radar, had the Tropicana Field roof not contained it.)

Then some unlikely heroes came through when called upon in the eighth. With the bases loaded and one out, pinch-hitter Marcus Thames smacked a RBI single. And with Clete Thomas pinch-running for Magglio Ordonez on third base, Leyland pushed it further by calling for a squeeze play. Adam Everett laid it down to bring in Thomas, and Detroit had a two-run lead.

The Rays threatened to tie the score in their half of the inning, as Zach Miner gave up singles to his first two batters. But when he needed it, Miner got the ground ball he needed, getting Gregg Zaun to hit into a double-play.

Right now, these Tigers have the look of a team that can beat you in several different ways. They can beat you with power, they can beat you with speed, and they will almost certainly beat you with pitching. Leyland seemed to sneer at the idea of bringing up more players in September (except in regards to the bullpen), but this expanded roster gives him many options. And last night, he used just about every one of them.

All of a sudden, the team that couldn't win on the road has won two against the defending American League champions. In September, during a pennant race, when it counts most.

[Apologies for the late recap. The morning got away from me a bit. Blame the holiday?]

Roar:

The Tigers' bullpen did a fantastic job taking over for Galarraga, pitching almost seven innings of scoreless baseball, and giving up just four hits. Perhaps most notable among the six relievers used was Jeremy Bonderman, pitching in the majors for the first time since early June. Bondo looked pretty good, striking out two batters in his 1.2 innings.

And Brandon Lyon, taking over as closer for the fatigued Fernando Rodney, showed Tigers fans what a 1-2-3 ninth inning looks like. You mean a closer can get a save without spiking our blood pressure?

Comment of the Night:

TB's bullpen is crumbelievable

by explosivo2k2

And your runner-up, because this game was a duel of rotating pitchers.

The Tampa Bay Rays Rotation, Pitch Counts & Rick Peterson

Tommy Rancel — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 16:00:14 -0000

More photos » by Brian Blanco - AP

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Agree or disagree with the logic behind it, but by now we've been programmed to start paying attention to a pitchers count at 100 pitches. 100 pitches isn't the absolute rule, and guys like Matt Garza and Roy Halladay amongst others are equipped to go past 100. However, on most nights a manager would be happy to have his starter reach the century mark and get him six or seven innings.

For the Rays this has been true on many nights. While each game is different, the Rays starters as a group have averaged 99 pitches per start. However, pitching guru Rick Peterson suggests that 100 isn't the magical number we should be looking at. In fact, Peterson says it's lower.

"The data tells us that once a pitcher reaches 90 pitches, the performance rate is drastically impacted. In fact, the batting average against (BAA) almost doubles. The data is there to support this." "Sure, elite guys like Roy Halladay and CC Sabathia do not have such a variance. But, by and large, the majority of pitchers do."--Fullcountpitch.com

Of course after reading such a statement my interest was piqued. Here is a look at the six starters used by the Rays broken down by pitch count...

Shields	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	176	0.335	0.358	0.471	0.392	5.33
26-50	185	0.256	0.286	0.369	0.295	3.63
51-75	177	0.202	0.237	0.321	0.222	3.75
76-100	167	0.277	0.352	0.486	0.298	1.69
100+	27	0.391	0.481	0.913	0.4	1.25

Kazmir	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	102	0.28	0.422	0.463	0.322	0.95
26-50	129	0.277	0.328	0.479	0.287	2.38
51-75	127	0.265	0.323	0.372	0.312	2
76-100	104	0.283	0.356	0.511	0.31	2.25
100+	17	0.333	0.412	0.467	0.417	1.5

Garza	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	140	0.231	0.279	0.354	0.292	5.43
26-50	165	0.259	0.329	0.422	0.297	2.46
51-75	161	0.21	0.304	0.37	0.223	1.78
76-100	151	0.25	0.331	0.402	0.284	1.65
100+	51	0.163	0.275	0.302	0.179	2.33

Niemann	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	147	0.254	0.327	0.446	0.264	1.91
26-50	163	0.26	0.319	0.333	0.311	2.42
51-75	140	0.246	0.321	0.397	0.269	1.23
76-100	119	0.276	0.333	0.381	0.317	2.2
100+	20	0.316	0.35	0.632	0.25	1

Price	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	86	0.324	0.419	0.581	0.339	1.18
26-50	95	0.193	0.284	0.349	0.23	2.1
51-75	96	0.284	0.344	0.477	0.328	2.5
76-100	84	0.284	0.361	0.425	0.321	1.5
100+	18	0.125	0.222	0.188	0.2	3

Sonnanstine	PA	BAA	OBP	SLG	BABIP	K/BB
1-25	94	0.326	0.362	0.551	0.338	2.6
26-50	97	0.315	0.371	0.506	0.333	1.38
51-75	102	0.255	0.314	0.521	0.254	2.43
76-100	66	0.333	0.364	0.476	0.377	4.5
100+	3	0.333	0.333	0.333	0.333	0

Shields follows the Peterson model more than any other Rays starter. After holding opponents to a .558 OPS during pitches 51-75, that jumps 280 points to .838 after pitch 75. This surprised me as Shields usually works deep into the game, and at least my perception was he got better in the latter stages of the game. In fact it's quite the opposite especially after Shields reaches 100 pitches. His BABIP jumps to over .400 and opponents slug .913 against him. Very small sample size, but it seems Shields gets tired very quickly once at the century mark. As for Scott Kazmir, he starts off slowly before locking in during pitches 51-75. After pitch 75, his OPS against jumps up nearly .200 points back in to the mid .800s from 76-100.

For Matt Garza, the split is less than Shields or Kazmir, but there is a nearly 60 point OPS difference as Garza nears 100. As mentioned above Garza is a different animal. He has been his strongest at 100+ pitches, so it should come as no surprise that he leads the Rays in 100-119 pitch performances with 18 on the season.

When it comes to Jeff Niemann and David Price there doesn't seem to be a noticable difference on the march to 100. Both pitchers, especially Price, seem to struggle early on before settling down and going to work. In a SSS Price seems to channel Garza once he goes over 100 pitches, while Niemann has been lit up like Shields in his small sample size. The final member of the group is Andy Sonnanstine. As much as I hate to say it, Sonny got hit around regardless of pitch count. In no group was his opponent's OPS lower than .835 and that is just not good.

It's no shock that there is not a magic number across the board. Each pitcher is built different and throws different stuff. While there is no specific number, each pitcher will always have some sort of pitch count. We may not like it on some nights, but pitchers are conditioned this way and it's not going to just change.

"Think about it as a runner. Let's say he runs three or four miles a day which would average about 27 miles a week. He's conditioned to that routine. Then, the runner decides to do away with consistent training and will run however long he feels like it - like Forrest Gump. So, one day he runs seven miles, the next 8, and the next 4 and so on. So, one week he runs about 40 miles and then the next he runs 50, followed by 60 miles. What happens to his legs? He burns out and gets hurt."---Fullcountpitch.com

After all, owners are always going to look after their investments, and paying big money to injured pitchers is not a good business practice, right Rick?

Baseball spent $1.2 billion dollars on pitchers' salaries in 2008. $330 million dollars of that money was spent on injured pitchers. We have a problem here."--fullcountpitch.com

For more on Rick Peterson's thoughts click one of the fullcountpitch.com links. H/T to Baseball-Reference.com for the splits.